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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power, the
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Speaker 2: crawl out of another weekend, here on the campaign trail
Speaker 2: and aim for what is this?
Speaker 3: Is it?
Speaker 2: Gang the final week of this campaign. Kamala Harris on
Speaker 2: her way to Michigan today, of course, arguably one of
Speaker 2: the most important battleground states on the seven swing states
Speaker 2: that we're looking at here on the map. She'll be
Speaker 2: talking about manufacturing jobs, going to a Corning facility and
Speaker 2: be doing something with Maggie Rodgers.
Speaker 3: Later on.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is in Atlanta onto the swing state of Georgia,
Speaker 2: following his performance last evening at Madison Square Garden. This
Speaker 2: was a five hour, five plus hour rally that included
Speaker 2: a lot more than Donald Trump, and if you scan
Speaker 2: the headlines today, they're all pretty consistent because well, what
Speaker 2: it was before Donald Trump ever hit the stage was
Speaker 2: some of the most heated and off color rhetoric that
Speaker 2: we have heard in this campaign so far. New levels
Speaker 2: in attempts at comedy that ended with crude, sexist and
Speaker 2: racist jokes that spawned a lot of reaction from Republicans
Speaker 2: as well as Democrats, particularly those in swing districts. We
Speaker 2: heard just a few moments ago from Kamala Harris who
Speaker 2: was asked about some of the language at Madison Square
Speaker 2: Garden and the messaging from the Trump campaign. She's on
Speaker 2: the tarmac on the way to Michigan. As I mentioned,
Speaker 2: here's what she said.
Speaker 4: This is not new about him. By the way, what
Speaker 4: he did last night is not a discovery.
Speaker 5: It is just more of the same and maybe more
Speaker 5: vivid than usual. Donald Trump spends full time trying to
Speaker 5: have America's point. They're finger at each other, fans the
Speaker 5: fuel of the hate and division, and that's why people
Speaker 5: are exhausted with him.
Speaker 2: And so this is the closing argument, right, This is
Speaker 2: part of the message from the Trump campaign, even though
Speaker 2: it is also out with some ads that are being
Speaker 2: very well reviewed by the way from but that it
Speaker 2: goes on both sides of the aisle for their perceived
Speaker 2: effectiveness on the economy. On the Biden Harris record last evening,
Speaker 2: though we were telling jokes, you probably wouldn't be able
Speaker 2: to tell the Thanksgiving table when the family gets together
Speaker 2: next month. Now we have seen the final drop from
Speaker 2: Siena and the New York Times, our friend Don Levy,
Speaker 2: who's been with us for many months tracking their poll
Speaker 2: and coming up with a very similar result to the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg swing state pole when you look at the presidential level,
Speaker 2: ours was forty nine forty nine. His is forty eight
Speaker 2: forty eight, and new numbers today as well on some
Speaker 2: house races that we're watching specifically in New York. Also
Speaker 2: a couple of Senate races that could throw wild cards
Speaker 2: into the final analysis. They certainly are into the walk up.
Speaker 2: Don Levy is director of the Sienna College Research Institute
Speaker 2: and with us one week out. Donn, it's great to
Speaker 2: see you. Thank you so much for joining us today
Speaker 2: as always on Bloomberg. If I could just start with
Speaker 2: the presidential knowing that a lot of people are voting
Speaker 2: right now, Michigan has statewide early voting underway as of Saturday.
Speaker 2: You wonder if the rhetoric like we're hearing right now
Speaker 2: Madison Square Garden last night on the ellipse from Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris tomorrow poses any having any impact on this race
Speaker 2: at all, or if people's decisions have been made.
Speaker 6: Well, certainly we're at forty eight forty eight, it can't
Speaker 6: get any closer than that. Still, there remain about ten
Speaker 6: percent of Americans who say they are persuadable, who say
Speaker 6: they might change their mind. And clearly the issue of
Speaker 6: democracy is one that both campaigns are trying to.
Speaker 3: Make a point on.
Speaker 6: I feel like at our most recent national poll you
Speaker 6: see that more voters seem to be a little bit
Speaker 6: concerned about the effect that Donald Trump might have on
Speaker 6: our democratic institutions than Kamala Harris. In fact, we saw
Speaker 6: that fifty eight percent feel as though Trump worsens the
Speaker 6: partisan divide. Only thirty seven percent feel the same way
Speaker 6: towards Harris. And interestingly, when we asked about do you
Speaker 6: take Trump seriously? Now, overall Americans are a out split
Speaker 6: forty eight forty six. What do they tend to take
Speaker 6: them seriously? But where they do take him seriously. Large
Speaker 6: majorities say they take Donald Trump seriously when it comes
Speaker 6: to him using the dog doj excuse me to prosecute
Speaker 6: his political opponents? And more than two thirds of Americans
Speaker 6: donald Trump seriously when it comes to the possibility that
Speaker 6: there would be mass deportations of eleven million current illegal
Speaker 6: immigrants who are here in the United States. So the rhetoric,
Speaker 6: the partisan divide still could weigh on that ten percent
Speaker 6: who has yet not carved their vote in.
Speaker 2: Granted, there was a really interesting number in your poll
Speaker 2: about the economy. Don Donald Trump at a thirteen point
Speaker 2: edge over Harris on who is better suited to handle
Speaker 2: the economy broadly one month ago, that is shrunk to
Speaker 2: six percentage points. If you're looking at momentum, does that
Speaker 2: factor in to what might happen a week from tomorrow, Well, you've.
Speaker 3: Got to feel that the Harris campaign feels that way.
Speaker 3: This is a significant drop.
Speaker 6: I mean, Trump has been running at double digits as
Speaker 6: more trusted on the economy for a long time, you know,
Speaker 6: go all the way back a year ago when it
Speaker 6: was Trump versus Biden. So to see that number drop
Speaker 6: to seven points, it's significant movement. Still, the voters say
Speaker 6: what's the most important thing to you? Overwhelmingly they say
Speaker 6: the economy, the cost of living. So Trump continues to
Speaker 6: hold a lead there where does Harris hold the lead?
Speaker 6: And that one hasn't moved the issue of abortion. She's
Speaker 6: got about a fourteen to fifteen point advantage on that issue.
Speaker 6: But if it comes right down to the economy, that
Speaker 6: seven point lead for Trump is a significant margin.
Speaker 2: Joe Biden is voting early today. Producer James says he's
Speaker 2: in line in Wilmington. He was set to do this
Speaker 2: at eleven. He's in line the president of the United States. James.
Speaker 2: He's just waiting in line. That's a long line. That
Speaker 2: is anybody with him. He's got the Secret Service with
Speaker 2: him in line. Don I feel like he should have
Speaker 2: just listened to the show, maybe gone a little later,
Speaker 2: let the lines die down. The early voting part of
Speaker 2: this campaign is part of the story. Don do you
Speaker 2: actually to look at where your polling was as each
Speaker 2: state opened, to maybe create a little curve in your
Speaker 2: own mind about the way this is impacting things as
Speaker 2: you get these snapshots along the way people are making
Speaker 2: their decisions.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Absolutely, I mean, we certainly asked voters whether they
Speaker 3: have already voted.
Speaker 6: It seems as though, while not yet at pandemic levels,
Speaker 6: that we're seeing a tremendous amount of voters that we're
Speaker 6: telling us I've already voted still, you know, right now,
Speaker 6: you know, we're asking them who did you vote for?
Speaker 6: Who are you going to vote for? So right now
Speaker 6: we concentrate on what the voters tell us. And clearly
Speaker 6: we're moving now from the national polls and we'll do
Speaker 6: our final round of battle grade the battleground states over
Speaker 6: this week and be happy to jump onder the week
Speaker 6: from today when we're going to have fresh polls in
Speaker 6: the seven key battleground states.
Speaker 2: Oh, that's a date that let's plan for that. I
Speaker 2: guess I'd love to get your long view here done.
Speaker 2: You've been at this for months and months, watching these
Speaker 2: numbers move a bit but not a lot. You've gone
Speaker 2: through a change at the top of one of the
Speaker 2: tickets here, so much wild rhetoric that we've heard, attempted assassinations.
Speaker 2: Yet the consistency in this race as a tie is remarkable.
Speaker 3: What do you make of it?
Speaker 6: I've never seen one that is tied like this coming
Speaker 6: right into the final stretch. You know, but when you
Speaker 6: look under the hood, we are a divided nation. Men
Speaker 6: tend to be for Trump, women for Harris. If you
Speaker 6: look at voters, for example, white voters without a college.
Speaker 3: Education overwhelmingly for Trump.
Speaker 6: If you look at the black vote, you know, a
Speaker 6: lot was made early in the campaign about some erosion,
Speaker 6: most especially amongst young black men away.
Speaker 3: From the Democratic side of the ticket. That seems to have.
Speaker 6: Returned Hispanics, you know, very much in play a small
Speaker 6: margin for Harris.
Speaker 3: So really it's going to come down to.
Speaker 6: These these subgroups and who turns out at at rates
Speaker 6: greater or less than what they have historically turned out.
Speaker 6: That is where the difference could lie most especially, and
Speaker 6: I think, you know, we want to look very carefully
Speaker 6: at all seven battleground states, but most specifically at the
Speaker 6: three northern ones where we have all those groups of
Speaker 6: people well represented in a small change in turnout amongst
Speaker 6: for example, black voters in the urban centers or white
Speaker 6: non college educated voters, which you know, you know, certainly
Speaker 6: with a thirty to thirty five point advantage for Trump,
Speaker 6: are key to his campaign in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan,
Speaker 6: and in Wisconsin. So it's going to come down to turnout.
Speaker 6: I think the polls coalescing on very similar numbers have
Speaker 6: done a good job of capturing the national mood and
Speaker 6: not really, it's going to come down to which of
Speaker 6: these subgroups turnout at rates greater than they have historically
Speaker 6: turned out.
Speaker 2: I've got to ask you about these two Senate races,
Speaker 2: Rasca and Texas. We didn't think we'd be talking about
Speaker 2: them here in the eleventh hour, but they've become awfully interesting.
Speaker 2: You're polling confirms what a lot of people have thought.
Speaker 2: Dan Osborne, the Independent, is within striking distance of Senator
Speaker 2: Deb Fisher. In Texas. Colin Alrett has a real race.
Speaker 2: You're against Ted Cruz. I've only got a minute left here.
Speaker 2: Done any of these, either of these two happened, it
Speaker 2: changes the balance of power in the Senate. Correct.
Speaker 6: Oh, absolutely, these are key center races. The one in
Speaker 6: Nebraska came out of nowhere.
Speaker 3: Of course.
Speaker 6: The challenger there, Osbourne is an Independent. He hasn't as
Speaker 6: yet said who he would caucus with, but he's within
Speaker 6: two points and he is drastically overperforming where Kamala Harris
Speaker 6: is an esstet. So voters are making a real difference
Speaker 6: between Harris the Democrat and Osborne the Independent, so that
Speaker 6: one is razor thin right now. And we all know
Speaker 6: that the second racial district in Nebraska is Key Asborne's
Speaker 6: way up there.
Speaker 3: Harris is up there that won electro vote Paris, Texas.
Speaker 2: And you've got a four race, four point race in Texas.
Speaker 2: Don come back and see us. I think we have
Speaker 2: a date a week from today, right or a week
Speaker 2: from tomorrow. James will follow up with the I'm Joe,
Speaker 2: Matthew and Washington. Thanks for being with us.
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Speaker 7: Thirty number twenty four is joining us now, I'm pleased
Speaker 7: to say. From our world headquarters in New York. Former
Speaker 7: New York Knicks player, Olympic gold medalist, once a candidate
Speaker 7: for president himself, and of course multiple term Democratic Senator
Speaker 7: from New Jersey, Bill Bradley is with us here on
Speaker 7: Bloomberg TV and Radio. Sir welcome to Balance of Power.
Speaker 7: We appreciate you joining us. As Joe said just a
Speaker 7: few moments ago, you've spent a good deal of time
Speaker 7: in Madison Square Garden, likely more than Donald Trump. What
Speaker 7: was your reaction to what we saw take place there yesterday?
Speaker 8: I thought it was a sad night for Madison Square Garden.
Speaker 8: It was a kind of desecration of a place that is,
Speaker 8: in my view, the home of champions and that was
Speaker 8: not ten championship action last night. I think of the
Speaker 8: values that we demonstrated as a team when the Knicks,
Speaker 8: when we won two World championships, things like courage, discipline, respect, responsibility, unselfishness,
Speaker 8: and none of that was displayed last night at all.
Speaker 8: To the contrary, often it was the opposite. And here
Speaker 8: I have on my lapel a number nineteen, and that
Speaker 8: is the number of Willis Reid, who was our star center,
Speaker 8: who sacrificed his career to come out in the seventh
Speaker 8: game in nineteen seventy, when we won the World Championship
Speaker 8: for the first time. So last night was a sad
Speaker 8: night for the Garden, and it it reflected none of
Speaker 8: the values that I came to learn as a kid
Speaker 8: growing up, and I think thousands of millions of people
Speaker 8: in sports learn certain things that are reflected by the
Speaker 8: accomplishment and championships in Madison Square Garden and Donald Trump
Speaker 8: doesn't reflect those things. Let's just take one example. When
Speaker 8: you're a kid growing up, what do your coaches tell you, Well,
Speaker 8: if you lose, you congratulate the opponent. Donald Trump has
Speaker 8: never done that. Last night, I was the kind of
Speaker 8: half wired slip. And the reality is that those values
Speaker 8: are the key to a lot of people's lives, some
Speaker 8: of whom actually vote for Trump, and I'm saying he
Speaker 8: does not reflect those values, and we have to come
Speaker 8: to terms with that. And I hope that will mean
Speaker 8: people will look at this and say, Kamala Harris has
Speaker 8: the set of values that we care.
Speaker 2: About, Senator, and thank you again for joining us today.
Speaker 2: We hear some off color remarks sometimes in the locker
Speaker 2: room we're at games, but what we heard last night
Speaker 2: was on stage. It was into a microphone and people
Speaker 2: were standing and shearing. I didn't hear any booing when
Speaker 2: I heard some of the more off color jokes coming
Speaker 2: from the comedians and some of the others who were
Speaker 2: speaking before Donald Trump, and it does make you wonder
Speaker 2: about this change in the tenor in politics. Is this
Speaker 2: just the say it out loud campaign?
Speaker 8: Well, I think that it shows that there is a
Speaker 8: dramatic decrease in a level of respect people have for
Speaker 8: each other, and certainly opponents have for each other. And
Speaker 8: I thought that last night was a new low in
Speaker 8: that regard. I mean, when we were champions in that arena,
Speaker 8: we were a diverse group of Americans from all over
Speaker 8: the country, different races, and we came together because of
Speaker 8: our unselfishness and our commitment to be the best we
Speaker 8: could be. Those are the values that I think people learn,
Speaker 8: and those are the values that I think are not
Speaker 8: reflected in Donald Trump. He's never played a sport. He
Speaker 8: doesn't understand what it is to be a champion, and
Speaker 8: therefore he' spews all this hatred and all this division
Speaker 8: every day, not realizing that it's actually contrary to achieving
Speaker 8: what a president has to achieve, which is bring people
Speaker 8: together and take them to higher ground.
Speaker 7: Well, Senator, he may not be a champion in any
Speaker 7: kind of sports, arena or area, but he does know
Speaker 7: what it's like to be the victor in a presidential election.
Speaker 7: He did win in twenty sixteen, didn't last time. There
Speaker 7: is a chance he wins this time around. This is
Speaker 7: still a race that is neck and neck. What's your
Speaker 7: real view of what could happen when the results come in.
Speaker 8: I think it's a very close race. I think seven
Speaker 8: states will decide it. I think turnout is absolutely key.
Speaker 8: I mean, for example, in Wisconsin, in North Carolina, there
Speaker 8: are like four hundred thousand people who have not registered,
Speaker 8: or if they've registered, they've got to turn them out.
Speaker 8: They're Democrats, all of them. They are like three hundred
Speaker 8: and eighty five thousand people in Pennsylvania and Michigan in
Speaker 8: the same category. And the question is if Democrats can
Speaker 8: turn the vote out, Kamala Harris will be the next
Speaker 8: president of the United States. And I think that all
Speaker 8: of these actions in the last week, particularly the extremes
Speaker 8: that Donald Trump has taken his rhetoric, only will produce
Speaker 8: more turnout for Democrats.
Speaker 2: We waited a long time for that two thousand race
Speaker 2: to be called Bill Bradley. How long will we wait
Speaker 2: for this one?
Speaker 8: We didn't wait that long. I hope that I hope
Speaker 8: it's called on election night, but I have to be
Speaker 8: realistic and say, maybe it's a week later. I think
Speaker 8: the key thing is just how many people are outraged
Speaker 8: and come out and vote. And it's on both sides.
Speaker 8: I mean, who has the greatest emotional pitch going forward?
Speaker 8: What kind of country do we want to have? Do
Speaker 8: we want a country that takes everybody to higher economic
Speaker 8: ground where everybody has a chance, or do you want
Speaker 8: to have a country that is divisive in a country
Speaker 8: that feeds the wealthy the bulk of the benefits. And
Speaker 8: to my view, it's a pretty clear case. If people
Speaker 8: hear Kamala Harrison's program, they who prefer it over Donald
Speaker 8: Trump's program. But the question is will people actually hear it.
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 7: And will she say it enough times? Senator? She's focused
Speaker 7: a lot of her closing messages on issues of democracy,
Speaker 7: the threat Trump's poses, reproductive rights, for example, Does she
Speaker 7: need to spend more of the next eight days talking
Speaker 7: about the economy specifically?
Speaker 8: Well, I think that it wouldn't hurt to have her
Speaker 8: make a talk about taking more people to hich on
Speaker 8: the ground and drawing the contrasts. But I know in
Speaker 8: closing days they already have a strategy. It's laid out,
Speaker 8: and she's saying important things, very important things, and I
Speaker 8: think the whole issue of reproductive rice could very well
Speaker 8: be a dramatic move. But the other day she made
Speaker 8: a speech in Houston, Texas that nobody really covered. I
Speaker 8: happened to watch the whole speech. It was a very
Speaker 8: powerful speech on what would be like as a country
Speaker 8: where women did not have access to the possibility of abortion,
Speaker 8: and it would be a quite different place for women,
Speaker 8: and I agree for men too.
Speaker 2: Michelle Obama spoke at that address. Arguably one of the
Speaker 2: most effective surrogates that Kamala Harris has on the trail,
Speaker 2: and they've been holding her, I guess as the secret
Speaker 2: weapon for the eleventh hour here. What do you make
Speaker 2: of the use of celebrity, whether it's Beyonce who was
Speaker 2: at that rally, Bruce Springsteen a couple of nights before
Speaker 2: Donald Trump showed up with Hulk Hogan last night. Does
Speaker 2: anybody care about this stuff? Does it actually mobilize an
Speaker 2: undecided voter to go to a poll next week?
Speaker 8: Well, I mean maybe this shows my age or my
Speaker 8: export or what. I don't think people care about Paul Klogan, right,
Speaker 8: But I think Bruce Springsteen, he's a great new Jersey,
Speaker 8: and he's got a voice. Why shouldn't he have a
Speaker 8: chance to express it, Beyonce, celebrities are just people. They're
Speaker 8: not giants, and they're people who have children and families
Speaker 8: and they want to have a country that moves forward.
Speaker 8: And those who spoke for Kamla are people who want
Speaker 8: to have everybody to go to higher economic ground. That's
Speaker 8: the economic message of Democratic Party has always been and
Speaker 8: can be now, and that's what you heard many of
Speaker 8: them say over the week. The fact that their celebrities
Speaker 8: doesn't bother me. And I think that if they draw
Speaker 8: a few more people to listen to what Kamla has
Speaker 8: to say, that's fine.
Speaker 7: Or maybe if a few more people to donate. Harris's
Speaker 7: campaign has raised more than a billion dollars just since
Speaker 7: she became the candidate. And I know, Sarah, you have
Speaker 7: been working with Issue one, which is looking at dark
Speaker 7: money in politics, the money that surrounds our presidential and
Speaker 7: democratic system. Are you concerned by how much has been
Speaker 7: raised and spent? Should it be this way?
Speaker 8: No, it should not be this way. I mean back
Speaker 8: into dark ages. When I ran for president, one of
Speaker 8: the issues I talked a lot about was campaign financial reform.
Speaker 8: You have to take money out of politics or you're
Speaker 8: always going to have problems. And this campaign on both
Speaker 8: sides demonstrates once again that the amount of money will
Speaker 8: come with the price at some point. And I think
Speaker 8: a lot of the Democratic money comes with people who
Speaker 8: are idealistic and who want to see certain things happen
Speaker 8: in the country to make America a better place. And
Speaker 8: that's fine, those are the rules. We played by the rules.
Speaker 8: But if we're looking at the health of our democracy,
Speaker 8: we dramatically need to have campaign financial reform.
Speaker 2: It's great to have you Bill Bradley come see us again,
Speaker 2: former Democratic Senator from New Jersey, of course, former presidential
Speaker 2: candidate and Basketball Hall of Famer twenty four hanging in
Speaker 2: the rafters at Madison Square Garden as we recover from
Speaker 2: an interesting night on the trail with Kaylee Lines. I'm
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of
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Speaker 7: Donla Harrison Michigan ahead of her appearance here in d
Speaker 7: CED tomorrow and which she'll give a closing argument speech
Speaker 7: on the National Mall. And Donald Trump today is in
Speaker 7: Georgia after his rally madiscorre in Madison Square Garden in
Speaker 7: New York last night. And of course, while a lot
Speaker 7: of the headlines captured what other speakers said last night,
Speaker 7: whether it was off color jokes about Puerto Rico from
Speaker 7: a comedian or descriptions improper ones of Kamala Harris's racial
Speaker 7: identity from others like Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump himself did
Speaker 7: speak and in part doubled down on some of his
Speaker 7: rhetoric we've already seen on the campaign trail, including saying
Speaker 7: this on the enemy within.
Speaker 9: When I say the enemy from within the other side
Speaker 9: goes crazy, becomes the soundho, how can you say, now,
Speaker 9: they've done very bad things to this country. They are
Speaker 9: indeed the enemy from within. But this is who we're fighting.
Speaker 9: These are the people who are doing such harm to
Speaker 9: our country with their open border policies.
Speaker 2: That was after a five hour leading at Madison Square Garden.
Speaker 2: And indeed, people do go crazy over this enemy within line,
Speaker 2: and it might in fact be the closing argument if
Speaker 2: you've tried to crystallize this on a bumper sticker. Let's
Speaker 2: assemble our politic panel. They're back with us together today.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino, Bloomberg Politics contributors. She is
Speaker 2: Democratic analyst and political science professor at Iona University. He
Speaker 2: is Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. Rick,
Speaker 2: your thoughts on this presentation last evening as we head
Speaker 2: for as Kayley mentioned some interesting optics for Kamala Harris
Speaker 2: tomorrow is going to be talking about freedom here on
Speaker 2: the National Mall, recalling January sixth, You have posited more
Speaker 2: than once that both of these are misguided. Now that
Speaker 2: we've got one down, how do you feel.
Speaker 10: Oh, she's closing on this Regardless, it would be nice
Speaker 10: at least the third leg of the stool be on
Speaker 10: the economy, because I do think that they have a
Speaker 10: story to tell, but they've just chosen really not to
Speaker 10: engage in that really matching, you know, sort of talk
Speaker 10: about future tax cuts with whatever the Trump campaign's doing.
Speaker 10: So look, I mean there's no question that January sixth
Speaker 10: is alling argument to make to certain voters, and insomuch
Speaker 10: is she's focused in on suburban women in the targeted
Speaker 10: states that might have some residents there. Certainly does on
Speaker 10: the abortion issue, but she is not doing much to
Speaker 10: try and hold down Donald Trump's expansion in the urban
Speaker 10: environment with young Latino, Black, and non college educated white males.
Speaker 10: And that is the real big vulnerability she's got within
Speaker 10: her base, and her efforts to try and hold back
Speaker 10: Trump's growth in the rural areas with non college white
Speaker 10: men especially has kind of petered out. We don't hear
Speaker 10: that anymore. She's been doing tours through the rural areas,
Speaker 10: but she stopped doing that, So we'll see where that slamds.
Speaker 10: But if she doesn't win this election, I think a
Speaker 10: lot of people are going to be second guessing a
Speaker 10: lack of economic message in her closing.
Speaker 3: Well.
Speaker 7: So, Genie, how much time should she spend on the
Speaker 7: economy tomorrow? And frankly, should she talk about any policy
Speaker 7: ideas that she hasn't already articulated or is it too
Speaker 7: late for that kind of thing to resonate? Knowing Donald
Speaker 7: Trump floated a new tax credit yesterday.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and it's won by the way that that Kamala
Speaker 5: Harris had put out already a few weeks ago, and
Speaker 5: she's got a big, big, eighty page document out there
Speaker 5: touting her policies. But the reality is this has not
Speaker 5: been an election about policy by any stretch of the imagination.
Speaker 5: So while I wish it was, it hasn't been. She's
Speaker 5: going to win by talking about the issue of Donald
Speaker 5: Trump getting into office and not having any guardrails around
Speaker 5: him this time and exacting the revenge that he has promised.
Speaker 5: I mean, you played that clip at the top, and
Speaker 5: it's so important because this is not about what anybody
Speaker 5: but Donald Trump says and what he has promised he
Speaker 5: will do. On Friday, he wrote very clearly, I will
Speaker 5: imprison the peace people who have come after me. He's
Speaker 5: talking about trying to kick a federal prosecutor out of
Speaker 5: the country, So we can say, oh, that's just rhetoric.
Speaker 5: She's going to have to close by saying to people,
Speaker 5: is this really what we want again, and equally importantly,
Speaker 5: talking about their attempts to limit the freedom of people
Speaker 5: in this country to do basic things like have their
Speaker 5: conversations with their doctor and have sound healthcare without the
Speaker 5: government saying we can't do with our bodies what we want.
Speaker 5: Both men and women by the way. So yeah, I
Speaker 5: wish there was more on the economy, but it's not
Speaker 5: going to happen in the next few days and it's
Speaker 5: not going to turn this election at this point.
Speaker 2: One of Kamala Harris's most effective surrogates, Michelle Obama, was
Speaker 2: on the campaign trail with the Vice president. Over the
Speaker 2: course of the weekend went to Kalama Zoo, where Michelle
Speaker 2: Obama made the case against Donald Trump.
Speaker 11: Let's listen, let me warn you. Your rank does not
Speaker 11: exist in a vacuum. If we don't get this election right,
Speaker 11: your wife, your daughter, your mother, we as women will
Speaker 11: become collateral damage to your rage.
Speaker 3: Rick.
Speaker 2: She was speaking directly to men, as you just heard,
Speaker 2: trying to bring home the issue of reproductive rights and abortion,
Speaker 2: to make this a male issue as well.
Speaker 3: Does she succeed, Well.
Speaker 10: Look, I think it's an important kind of speech to give.
Speaker 10: She's very articulate. Mirrors what her husband, Barack Obama did
Speaker 10: in Chicago a month ago. There's an issue with young
Speaker 10: black men leaving the party and looking for greener financial
Speaker 10: pastures in the Trump era, and so unless you're talking
Speaker 10: to them about the money in their pocket and their
Speaker 10: economic futures. I think you're talking past their concerns. They
Speaker 10: are not interested in the cultural aspects of being African American.
Speaker 10: They're interested in the economic aspects of being an American.
Speaker 10: And I think that that is the miss that's occurring
Speaker 10: right now. Forty five million people have already voted, and
Speaker 10: they're not going to hear these messages from this point out.
Speaker 10: So they're down now to two thirds of the vote
Speaker 10: that's going to listen in on what she's what Kama
Speaker 10: Harris is going to say tomorrow afternoon, and she ought
Speaker 10: to make that economic pitch to those people.
Speaker 7: Well, So it does raise a question of timing one
Speaker 7: week out from a vote when, for in many of
Speaker 7: these battleground states, voting has already been underway four weeks. Genie,
Speaker 7: are we getting around to this moment a little too
Speaker 7: late for modern elections in which early voting is becoming
Speaker 7: increasingly popular as we've seen with record numbers.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean the whole campaign has changed. I mean
Speaker 5: forty million, as you mentioned people, almost forty million have
Speaker 5: already voted. It is a missed opportunity. These campaigns try
Speaker 5: to take that into account and move their clothes earlier.
Speaker 5: But the fact is they've got to go down to
Speaker 5: the wire and keep getting those voters out. This is
Speaker 5: more important for the Trump campaign than even the Harris
Speaker 5: campaign because he's trying to activate people who vote in
Speaker 5: smaller numbers than what would be traditional Kamala Harris of voters.
Speaker 5: So it's a tougher hill for him to climb. But
Speaker 5: that said, I would say one interesting thing about that
Speaker 5: Michelle Obama versus Barack Obama is whereas Barack Obama was
Speaker 5: taking these young men to task, Michelle Obama took a
Speaker 5: very different tact in saying, this impacts you and the
Speaker 5: women you love as well. And again, it is not
Speaker 5: just women's bodies, It is men and women. It is
Speaker 5: liberty in general that they're talking about, not just this
Speaker 5: issue of a right to choose, although that's a really
Speaker 5: big part of this. So you've got two different messages
Speaker 5: from arguably two of the most popular Democrats out on
Speaker 5: the trail today in Barack and Michelle Obama.
Speaker 2: That's quite a reception for Michelle Obama made a lot
Speaker 2: of Democrats wonder all over Again. Genie can s while
Speaker 2: we're talking about closing arguments, maybe questioning them on both sides,
Speaker 2: these last couple of conversations that we've had. Look to
Speaker 2: Friday and the monthly jobs report. This will be the
Speaker 2: last jobs report that comes out before the election, and
Speaker 2: it is expected to show the lowest pre election unemployment
Speaker 2: rate in twenty four years. Shouldn't that be her closing argument?
Speaker 5: Normally, yes, it should be, but this is anything but
Speaker 5: a normal election. There is to Rick's point, the Democrats
Speaker 5: do have very very good economic numbers to run on,
Speaker 5: but it is not so far resonated with people. They
Speaker 5: simply do not give Joe Biden credit or Kamala Harris
Speaker 5: by extension for the positive aspects of the economy right now,
Speaker 5: including record historically low job numbers. So for that reason,
Speaker 5: yes they should tout them, but it can't be the
Speaker 5: major argument they go out on here because it's not
Speaker 5: something that we are hearing that people are voting on
Speaker 5: or feeling, or more importantly for them, giving the Democrats
Speaker 5: credit for.
Speaker 7: Well, something people might be feeling every time they go
Speaker 7: fill up their car. Wrick is that gas prices are
Speaker 7: lower today, oil having its biggest single day drop since
Speaker 7: July of twenty twenty two. In part that has to
Speaker 7: do with what happened in the Middle East over the
Speaker 7: weekend Israel and what seemed like a well calibrated d
Speaker 7: escalatory way hitting Iranian military sites. If prices at the
Speaker 7: pump continue to drop over the next week, if they're
Speaker 7: lower on election day, could that marginally influence the way
Speaker 7: people vote.
Speaker 10: Sure, it's all about people's sentiment when they go into
Speaker 10: that pulling place, and we still have hundreds of millions
Speaker 10: of people to vote, so it's plenty that can affect
Speaker 10: the outcome of this election that's been in a dead
Speaker 10: heat almost since it started. So absolutely, If somebody's gassing
Speaker 10: up and they say, wow, this is actually much lower
Speaker 10: price gasoline than I ever recall having, especially under Donald Trump,
Speaker 10: maybe there is a difference, but they have to hear
Speaker 10: that echoed by the administration by Joe Biden, by Kamala Harris.
Speaker 10: If Kama Harris is the spokesman for this administration, now,
Speaker 10: why in the world isn't she talking about that today?
Speaker 10: Why in the world is she talking about low unemployment
Speaker 10: rates that you discussed. They do have a good news topic.
Speaker 10: And if you try to run a campaign just on
Speaker 10: the polling data, especially in a completely divided country that
Speaker 10: we are now, then you're going to skip and miss
Speaker 10: opportunities like this to take advantage of your track record.
Speaker 10: Her track record is going to be on display on
Speaker 10: the first Tuesday in November, and she needs to do
Speaker 10: everything she can to brush it up between now and then.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno always a fascinating conversation and
Speaker 2: many thanks to both of you. Are signature paneled with
Speaker 2: us today on the Monday edition of Balance of Power
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Will They'll be back with
Speaker 2: us on the late edition of Balance of Power, of course,
Speaker 2: starting at five pm Eastern time round this time tomorrow.
Speaker 2: The optics are going to get interesting with Kamala Harris
Speaker 2: back here in Washington.
Speaker 3: Aren't they. Yeah?
Speaker 7: From the ellipse, of course, the very same spot in
Speaker 7: which Donald Trump spoke on January sixth, twenty twenty one.
Speaker 7: That is not by coincidence. I would imagine if she tries,
Speaker 7: in part to make her closing argument, as we just
Speaker 7: discussed with Rick and Genie, not necessarily just about policy,
Speaker 7: as she was like the economy, but about character and
Speaker 7: specifically the character of Donald Trump in the threat she
Speaker 7: says he poses to American democracy.
Speaker 2: You know, one of the things we were talking about
Speaker 2: with Bill Bradley earlier this hour is how long it's
Speaker 2: going to take to call this race. When you add
Speaker 2: the counting of early ballots and some different procedures state
Speaker 2: by state, it could be days, if not weeks. Kalie,
Speaker 2: We're going to talk about that matter coming up as
Speaker 2: well on the fastest show in politics right here on
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then
Speaker 1: ron Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen.
Speaker 1: I have on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York
Speaker 1: station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.
Speaker 2: This is Balance of Power, the Monday edition. I'm Joe
Speaker 2: Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington now eight days out
Speaker 2: from the election, and much of our conversation is morphing
Speaker 2: into what happens after the election, Kayley the nine week slog,
Speaker 2: as Bruce Melman put it, between election day and the
Speaker 2: sixth of January, remembering this is going to take a
Speaker 2: while to call, not only the presidential campaign, the House
Speaker 2: and all the rest. As we get a sense of
Speaker 2: what will be the balance of power here in Washington.
Speaker 2: That's what we're all about. And look at the headlines
Speaker 2: today on voting irregularities, on deep fakes, on interference. US
Speaker 2: says Russians made fake video of ballots being destroyed. That
Speaker 2: was Pennsylvania right. Late mail ballots in Mississippi ruled illegal
Speaker 2: in GOP challenge, Virginia voter purge blocked by US judge
Speaker 2: ahead of election just a sampling of some of the
Speaker 2: stories making news today.
Speaker 7: Well, and today we learned that Virginia is escalating that case,
Speaker 7: in particular all the way to the US Supreme Court,
Speaker 7: or at least it has asked the justices to weigh
Speaker 7: in on whether or not it's too close to the
Speaker 7: election for this purge to happen. Knowing Virginia is not
Speaker 7: the only state that has tried to do this within
Speaker 7: a ninety day window, Removing people from voter roles, perhaps
Speaker 7: without their knowledge, is something that has raised many legal
Speaker 7: questions just leading up to the vote. But as Joe says,
Speaker 7: we still have a long way to go after the
Speaker 7: vote as well.
Speaker 2: In terms of litigation, big time. The campaigns have lawyered up.
Speaker 2: As we've reported, more than one hundred and sixty five
Speaker 2: lawsuits just preemptively wait for what will come after November fifth,
Speaker 2: as we start to pick through the ballots here, there
Speaker 2: are so many questions that we have about fair elections.
Speaker 2: Knowing that, as Rick Davis reminded us earlier this hour,
Speaker 2: a third of voters have already made their decisions.
Speaker 7: Yep, millions, tens of millions have already voted, but for
Speaker 7: some their ability.
Speaker 4: To vote it.
Speaker 7: Is still in question here with some these outstanding legal
Speaker 7: issues around these voter rules. So we want to turn
Speaker 7: to an expert.
Speaker 11: Now.
Speaker 7: Rebecca Caruthers is with us. She is vice president at
Speaker 7: the Fair Elections Center. Welcome to Balance of Power Rebecca
Speaker 7: here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's nice to have you.
Speaker 7: If we could just consider these voter role cases that
Speaker 7: we're seeing in a number of states, Virginia included. If
Speaker 7: the Supreme Court were to actually rule in favor of
Speaker 7: Governor Youngkin of Virginia and say they can be removed
Speaker 7: from voter rules, what potentially could be unleashed? How many
Speaker 7: people could show up to the polls on election day
Speaker 7: and find that they are not in fact still registered.
Speaker 4: Well, of course, thanks, first of all, thank you so
Speaker 4: much for having me today. According to the National Voter
Speaker 4: Registration Act, you cannot remove people from the election roles
Speaker 4: within ninety days. I'm fair Election Center that I found
Speaker 4: a lawsuit several weeks ago in Alabama because in Alabama
Speaker 4: there were folks who are being removed, and it turns
Speaker 4: out the court cited with us and said absolutely, you
Speaker 4: cannot remove these people within ninety days. What you're also seeing,
Speaker 4: you're seeing a mix of misinformation and you're seeing disinformation.
Speaker 4: And just to remind both your viewers and your listeners,
Speaker 4: misinformations when people speak out of turn, they say something
Speaker 4: that isn't entirely accurate. Sometimes it's a mistake. Disinformation is
Speaker 4: the intentional spreading of bad information target to certain groups.
Speaker 4: One thing that we know within the United States is
Speaker 4: our civic education is lacking. So a lot of people
Speaker 4: don't understand how the process of voting, the mechanics of
Speaker 4: voting works in this country. So unfortunately, there are bad
Speaker 4: actors from within our country and bad actors from outside
Speaker 4: of our country who are spreading bad information about our
Speaker 4: election processes.
Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad you made that delineation, Rebecca, because this
Speaker 2: Russian of fake video is getting a lot of attention
Speaker 2: here and it should be intelligence officialcy it was, in
Speaker 2: fact Russian operatives behind this video purportedly showing someone tearing
Speaker 2: up ballots in Pennsylvania. The Office of the Director of
Speaker 2: National Intelligence issued a statement about this Friday night. The
Speaker 2: Russian activity is part of moscow's broader effort to raise
Speaker 2: unfounded questions about the integrity of the US election and
Speaker 2: stoke divisions among Americans. This one got called out. How
Speaker 2: many are getting through and are actually impacting voters'.
Speaker 4: Minds, you know. And what's really unfortunate is we also
Speaker 4: have some elected officials, We have some of our leaders
Speaker 4: in Florida and Texas and Ohio that's feeding into disinformation.
Speaker 4: We know there is lots of propaganda that has been
Speaker 4: spread across social media. We know different groups have been targeted.
Speaker 4: We know that there are certain things on Instagram that's
Speaker 4: targeting African American or would be black voters in this country.
Speaker 4: We know there are things that are targeting those who
Speaker 4: are under thirty five, those who feel disaffected, those who
Speaker 4: would are first time voters who are trying to navigate
Speaker 4: our voting system. And what's unfortunate is when you have
Speaker 4: elected officials who ought to know better, still saying things
Speaker 4: to add to the confusion.
Speaker 7: Well, so as we consider that with eight days to
Speaker 7: go until election day and people wanting to go cast
Speaker 7: their ballot, Rebecca, what are you going to be watching
Speaker 7: for on election day? What perhaps frightens you about what
Speaker 7: could take place at polling centers with electoral officials if
Speaker 7: things go south.
Speaker 4: So this is what we do know. Every presidential cycle,
Speaker 4: we have free and fair and safe elections. We have
Speaker 4: good election security in this country. I don't expect twenty
Speaker 4: twenty four to be any different. As you mentioned at
Speaker 4: the top of the segment, almost a third of those
Speaker 4: who are likely to vote on a or by November
Speaker 4: fifth have already voted. So we know that people understand
Speaker 4: that they have either voted early in person, they have
Speaker 4: voted by mail, they have voted by requesting appsentee ballot,
Speaker 4: and it was a safe process. It was a secure process.
Speaker 4: So I don't expect election day to be any different.
Speaker 4: We're hearing from more than over five thousand local and
Speaker 4: state and national election officials, and we're hearing that they're
Speaker 4: ready to go, that they're excited, that people are showing
Speaker 4: up and that the process has been relatively smooth so far,
Speaker 4: so I don't expect that to be any different on
Speaker 4: November fifth.
Speaker 2: A lot of people don't expect to be any different
Speaker 2: than what we saw in twenty twenty, and Donald Trump
Speaker 2: could well claim victory at nine point thirty or ten
Speaker 2: o'clock at night, knowing that many early ballots will have
Speaker 2: yet to be counted. When you consider, again, as Kaylee
Speaker 2: pointed to you, to that evening, what is your message
Speaker 2: to our viewers and listeners on how long they should
Speaker 2: be prepared to wait.
Speaker 4: So it depends on the state. But I would tell
Speaker 4: you this, and you're hearing it from me. I think
Speaker 4: we will know in general, we will know on election
Speaker 4: night what's going on. Just because some states it takes
Speaker 4: several days for the election results to be certified, it
Speaker 4: doesn't mean that we still won't hear as the votes
Speaker 4: are being counted, As those totals are being announced on
Speaker 4: your local news. It's gonna be business as usual. So
Speaker 4: you know, a lot of people are gonna have their
Speaker 4: eyes in Michigan. They're gonna have their eyes in Pennsylvania,
Speaker 4: They're gonna have their eye on North Carolina, possibly Florida, Arizona,
Speaker 4: and Nevada. But one thing I would tell the American
Speaker 4: people is familiarize yourself with the process. Understand that. Understand
Speaker 4: the order of which votes are being counted in some jurisdictions.
Speaker 4: In some states, those who early voted, those are the
Speaker 4: first numbers that you'll see at eight pm or nine pm,
Speaker 4: whatever time that you're your states election, your state's polling
Speaker 4: locations close this, and then from there they'll throw out
Speaker 4: the next numbers, which might be from the time that
Speaker 4: the polls open first thing in the morning until noon,
Speaker 4: and then from noon until five, and then the post
Speaker 4: work rush hour of people rushing in to go vote.
Speaker 4: So understand the order in which votes are being counted,
Speaker 4: because one thing that we also saw in twenty twenty
Speaker 4: is that there was lots of misinformation saying why are
Speaker 4: the numbers changing? Well, duh, the numbers are changing because
Speaker 4: they're counting in real time. So I don't expect that
Speaker 4: to be any different this year.
Speaker 2: Rebecca Carruthers, Rebecca, great to have you back with the
Speaker 2: Fair Election Center. Thank you for the insights. Today on
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. This is Balance of Power, the
Speaker 2: fastest show in politics. As we approach Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 2: coming up about ten minutes from now, we want to
Speaker 2: point to you to an important story that hit the
Speaker 2: Terminal earlier today. And with all the noise around on
Speaker 2: the selection and the wild weekend that we had on
Speaker 2: the campaign trail, it's something that you might not otherwise
Speaker 2: hear about, but the Pentagon is evolving, and it's evolving
Speaker 2: in the way it procures and develops new weapons systems,
Speaker 2: which we talk a lot about here on Bloomberg TV
Speaker 2: and Radio. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall has more on this story.
Speaker 2: She's got the byline on the Terminal and with us
Speaker 2: now at the table today, Tyler, welcome. You made tracks
Speaker 2: across the Potomac to sit down with the chief Buyer,
Speaker 2: if I can call him that, at the Army.
Speaker 12: What'd you learn right exactly? So I was able to
Speaker 12: go to the Pentagon. I sat down with the US
Speaker 12: Army Chief of Staff, General Randy George. He's the highest
Speaker 12: ranking military official in the Army and also a member
Speaker 12: of the Joint Chiefs and this was his first ever
Speaker 12: TV interview and he was keen to sit down with
Speaker 12: us because he wanted to talk about this initiative he's
Speaker 12: trying to champion. It's called Transforming in Contact and what
Speaker 12: the program looks to do is flood these select brigades
Speaker 12: with high tech weapons, technology and as fast as possible.
Speaker 12: And why it might be interesting to our Bloomberg audience
Speaker 12: is that he described it to me as a new
Speaker 12: way for the Army to do business. For a sense
Speaker 12: of what he means here, we have a cut for
Speaker 12: you to listen to about what he's trying to implement
Speaker 12: here at the Army.
Speaker 13: There's a lot that we're trying to do right now,
Speaker 13: and you know, probably the biggest thing is that we
Speaker 13: realize that we're going to have to buy things in
Speaker 13: the future in tranches and you know, smaller batches. Technology
Speaker 13: is going to continue to change, so as long as
Speaker 13: we're buying things that are modular, open system architecture, we
Speaker 13: can continue to update in our formations. And that's what
Speaker 13: we need to be able to do.
Speaker 12: Right So you hear him here talking about buying things
Speaker 12: in smaller batches instead of having the Army get locked
Speaker 12: into these long term purchase orders that by the time
Speaker 12: they're fulfilled, the Army might have outdated equipment. He kept
Speaker 12: saying to me that the Army can no longer buy obsolescence,
Speaker 12: particularly when it comes to this technology. Now, this would
Speaker 12: be a much faster timeline than what the Army is
Speaker 12: used to doing. A recent Army report came out and
Speaker 12: said that on average, it takes at least two years
Speaker 12: for something to go through its approval, funding, regulation process
Speaker 12: just to get equipment out the door.
Speaker 7: Okay, so this is what the Army wants, but it
Speaker 7: has to buy this stuff from somewhere. So what are
Speaker 7: the people actually making this technology have to say about this?
Speaker 12: Right exactly? So this idea of competition for these kind
Speaker 12: of more non traditional companies keeps coming up. So he's
Speaker 12: really focused on cutting edge technology, think drones, electronic warfare,
Speaker 12: which hasn't really had the easiest time breaking into the
Speaker 12: defense industrial base. The defense industrial base has actually shrunk
Speaker 12: by about forty percent in the last decade because some
Speaker 12: of the biggest defense primes have continued to consolidate. So
Speaker 12: part of this is that General George wants to invite
Speaker 12: in more smaller, non traditional companies so they can compete.
Speaker 12: The other part of this is that he's actually letting
Speaker 12: those private sector engineers into the brigades to test this
Speaker 12: equipment alongside those soldiers names like Palenteer, SpaceX also andrel.
Speaker 12: I had the chance to catch up with their chief
Speaker 12: strategy officer who told me that that part of this initiative,
Speaker 12: allowing them to go in and then actually provide this
Speaker 12: real time feedback so then they can update those purchase orders,
Speaker 12: has really helped them out, not only to secure those
Speaker 12: purchases but also to advance their equipment. They're billing it
Speaker 12: as good for both both.
Speaker 2: Parts here, really interesting story. We've only got about a
Speaker 2: minute left, Tyler. Do have we heard from the big
Speaker 2: defense contractors, the Northrops, Boeings, Lockheeds of the world on
Speaker 2: this Is this good for them or not?
Speaker 6: Right?
Speaker 12: So, this initiative is primarily geared towards the more high
Speaker 12: tech companies. But I will say that I heard this
Speaker 12: described as this culture change, and I asked the General
Speaker 12: about it, because I spoke to many national security experts
Speaker 12: going into this story, who said that he has his
Speaker 12: work cut out for him, right, because the Pentagon is
Speaker 12: not used to doing business this way. But he says
Speaker 12: that he's trying to get everybody on board, whether that
Speaker 12: is those big defense primes and opportunities for them to
Speaker 12: contribute to this initiative in the future, or Congress, which
Speaker 12: also has oversight over how this program is working. I
Speaker 12: can't tell you that so far the Army has worked
Speaker 12: with about two dozen of these companies as part of
Speaker 12: this program, but it's more of these non traditional tech
Speaker 12: companies that we're seeing, all.
Speaker 7: Right, Bloomberg, Tyler Kendall, great reporting. Thank you so much,
Speaker 7: and of course you can find Tyler's story on the
Speaker 7: terminal and online.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.