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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 2: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: We'll tell you Washington girds for another war. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the fastest show in politics, as the Biden administration pledges

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Speaker 1: unconditional support for Israel and Congress stands ready for another

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Speaker 1: funding request. Even without a speaker, we'll have the latest

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Speaker 1: for you from the capital straight ahead here on sound On,

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Speaker 1: and we'll just us with Brett Bruin, President of the

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Speaker 1: Global Situation Room, former White House Director of Global Engagement

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Speaker 1: in the Obama administration. He'll bring us inside the situation

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Speaker 1: room for the latest, with analysis from our signature panel. Well,

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Speaker 1: Israel get what it needs from the US, what will

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Speaker 1: that mean for Ukraine? And how will this be impacted

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Speaker 1: by a paralyzed US House. We'll talk about it all

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Speaker 1: with Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano, both

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Speaker 1: with us for the hour. Welcome to the Monday edition

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Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where

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Speaker 1: it's just after one pm. Here, it's just after eight

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Speaker 1: pm in Israel, and the Gaza Strip is under heavy

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Speaker 1: bombardment right now is night falls on Israel, and we

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Speaker 1: have live pictures here or some pictures, I should say.

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Speaker 1: If you join us on YouTube, you'll see what we're

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Speaker 1: talking about. Search Bloomberg Global News with sounds of the

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Speaker 1: bombardment which continues at this hour. The Israel Defense Force

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Speaker 1: is issuing a statement earlier saying it an attack to

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Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty Hamas targets in Gaza and headlines

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Speaker 1: are crossing the terminal. Now more than eleven hundred dead

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Speaker 1: in Israel. As we try to figure out the latest

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Speaker 1: on this, we're hearing response as well from Washington now

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Speaker 1: that we're seeing some lawmakers come back into town. The

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Speaker 1: US House is getting back into session, and we will

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Speaker 1: not be seeing senators here in Washington for some time.

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Speaker 1: We did hear from President Biden yesterday who made clear

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Speaker 1: that the US supports Israel no matter what happens.

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Speaker 3: I told them the United States stands with the people

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Speaker 3: of Israel in the face of these terrorists assaults. Israel

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Speaker 3: has the right to defend itself and his people full stop.

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Speaker 1: The President from the White House with a warning as well,

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Speaker 1: for those who might seek opportunity at this time.

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Speaker 3: Let me say this as clearly as I can. This

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Speaker 3: is not a moment Randy Party hostile to Israel, to

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Speaker 3: exploit these attacks to seek advantage. The world is watching.

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Speaker 1: As lawmakers come back into Washington as well. We're hearing

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Speaker 1: from some, including the former Speaker Kevin McCarthy actually held

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Speaker 1: a news conference earlier today, almost as if he was

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Speaker 1: still speaking for the Republican Conference, and he laid out

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Speaker 1: what he called or described as a five point plan.

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Speaker 1: The first point here.

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Speaker 4: The very first thing we need to do is rescue

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Speaker 4: the American hostages. President Biden's number one priority right now

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Speaker 4: must be finding out how many Americans have been taken

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Speaker 4: hostage and get them home.

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Speaker 1: He also called on the administration to refreeze the money,

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Speaker 1: and we're going to get into this with rerep ruin

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Speaker 1: in a moment, to refreeze the money that was well

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Speaker 1: unfrozen just a couple of weeks ago in the prisoner

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Speaker 1: swap with Iran. Remember that was six billion dollars and

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Speaker 1: the administration at the time was heavily criticized for it.

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Speaker 4: They said they had provisions to refreeze the money. If

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Speaker 4: Iran has done something wrong, they should freeze the money

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Speaker 4: back Today.

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Speaker 1: The Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln made clear on Sunday

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Speaker 1: morning television that not a dollar of that money has

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Speaker 1: been spent yet. But there's a big argument over whether

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Speaker 1: just the anticipation of that money, which is specific for

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Speaker 1: humanitarian use, might have inspired some of this. With the

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Speaker 1: headline again now on the terminal Bloomberg reporting Iran may

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Speaker 1: have known about Gaza attack. That is referring to an

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Speaker 1: Israeli minister here one of the Prime Minister's closest allies

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Speaker 1: in the cabinet, Ron Dermer, speaking earlier today with Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: Let's bring in Brett Bruin. He's the president of the

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Speaker 1: Global Situation Room, as I mentioned, of course, a veteran

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Speaker 1: of the Obama White House where he was Director of

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Speaker 1: Global Engagement, and Brett, it's good to have you with

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Speaker 1: us here. I'll start with a more broad question before

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Speaker 1: we get down into the money issue, which is something

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Speaker 1: that's being baited here in Washington. What is happening behind

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Speaker 1: closed doors at the White House right now? What can

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Speaker 1: the Biden administration do on its own to support Israel?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think there is a wide ranging assessment currently

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Speaker 5: taking place, certainly across our defense support. What more does

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Speaker 5: Israel need? And as you heard Joe, also what does

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Speaker 5: the US need to do in order to deter the

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Speaker 5: likes of Iran or other groups that might want to

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Speaker 5: try and exploit this situation? And I think the movement

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Speaker 5: of a carrier group to the eastern Mediterranean is designed

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Speaker 5: to have that effect. You also obviously have a robust

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Speaker 5: effort on the intelligence side. I think we should expect,

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Speaker 5: Joe in the coming days weeks that US intelligence will

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Speaker 5: help to in some cases publicize what was known and

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Speaker 5: who knew it when, what role did Tehran have in

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Speaker 5: these events? Because that is going to play a large

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Speaker 5: part in any subsequent action that will take place. And

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Speaker 5: then lastly, my former Department of State will be looking

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Speaker 5: at how do you assemble the international community for stronger

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Speaker 5: support to Israel. Because while you saw those statements of

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Speaker 5: sorrow and solidarity, I think the concern in a lot

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Speaker 5: of foreign capitals right now is whether or not they

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Speaker 5: will stick with Israel as it exacts both retribution as

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Speaker 5: well as tries to diminish Hamas's capability to inflict more

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Speaker 5: harm on Israel and especially on Israeli civilians.

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Speaker 1: Not lost on us that the White House called a lid,

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Speaker 1: as they call it already today, Brett. That's when they're

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Speaker 1: basically telling reporters they can go home that there will

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Speaker 1: be no more news here for the day. The President's

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Speaker 1: going to be up to his own business and no

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Speaker 1: more public events. Does that say to you that they're

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Speaker 1: circling the wagons and having some important meetings at the

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Speaker 1: White House this afternoon.

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Speaker 5: Well, certainly important meetings, calls. The President's call list will

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Speaker 5: be extensive. And yet Joe and I think this is

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Speaker 5: important that in these moments of national security concern, we

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Speaker 5: need to hear from the president Prime Minister Yaho's been

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Speaker 5: criticized both in terms of how long it took him

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Speaker 5: to come out and publicly address the Israeli people as

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Speaker 5: well as the international community, as well as how infrequent

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Speaker 5: those updates, including from other Israeli officials, have ben. I

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Speaker 5: think President Biden has got to get out there more.

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Speaker 5: He has got to exert more public leadership on this issue,

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Speaker 5: keeping those allies publicly pressured to continue their support for Israel.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let me ask you about the money in the

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Speaker 1: swap that was being debated on Sunday morning television and

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Speaker 1: continues to this moment. In Washington, d C. The Secretary

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Speaker 1: of State Anthony Blincoln was out and was asked about this,

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Speaker 1: even trying to get ahead of it, remembering this is

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Speaker 1: six billion dollars that was in an account that was

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Speaker 1: unlocked and in fact moved to a different account. I'll

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Speaker 1: let you listen to his words for humanitarian uses as

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Speaker 1: part of our recent prisoner swap. Here's Anthony Blake.

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Speaker 6: You've had from day one, under our law, under our sanctions,

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Speaker 6: the right to use these monies for humanitarian purposes. They

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Speaker 6: were moved from one account to another in another country

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Speaker 6: to facilitate that use. As of now, not a single

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Speaker 6: dollar has been spent from that account. And again the

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Speaker 6: account is closely regulated by the US Treasury Department, so

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Speaker 6: it can only be used for things like food, medicine,

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Speaker 6: medical equipment.

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Speaker 1: That's what this is about, all right. So that's the

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Speaker 1: official line here. But I wonder if listening to NICKI

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Speaker 1: Haley might help illuminate the other side of this, Brett.

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Speaker 1: This is NICKI Haley on Meet the Press yesterday saying,

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Speaker 1: grow up, everybody. It's irresponsible for Anthony Blincoln to be

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Speaker 1: speaking that way and definibly.

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Speaker 7: I actually think it was irresponsible for Secretary Blincoln to

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Speaker 7: say that the six billion dollars doesn't weigh in here.

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Speaker 7: I mean, let's be honest with the American people and

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Speaker 7: understand that Hamas knows and Iran knows. They're moving money

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Speaker 7: around as we speak because they know six billion is

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Speaker 7: going to be released. That's the reality. When I was

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Speaker 7: at the United Nations, you saw that when those planes

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Speaker 7: full of cash sent by Obama to Iran. I went

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Speaker 7: to the International Atomic Energy Agency, I met with them.

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Speaker 7: What happened was those funds were sent to Hesbla and Lebanon.

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Speaker 7: They were sent to Hamas and Gaza. They were sent

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Speaker 7: to the Houthis and Yemen. They go and spread terrorism

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Speaker 7: every time they get a dollar.

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Speaker 1: All right, So look, Nikki Haley is running for president,

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Speaker 1: but also our former UN Ambassador Brett Is there some

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Speaker 1: truth to both of these We know the restrictions on

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Speaker 1: the use of this money, but does the anticipation mean

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Speaker 1: that some of this is fungible? What's your take?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Yes, if

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Speaker 5: six billion dollars in funds are coming in, that frees

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Speaker 5: up funds for other purposes. And that's essentially the argument

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Speaker 5: that Ambassador Haley is making. And yet at the same time,

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Speaker 5: it's important for the audience to understand that this money

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Speaker 5: isn't US money. It was money that was frozen in

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Speaker 5: an account that belongs to Iran. And what the Biden

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Speaker 5: administration is trying to do is use it as leverage

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Speaker 5: to obviously get the release of five Americans who were

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Speaker 5: unjustly held in Iranian prisons. I think, now, Joe, the

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Speaker 5: interesting question is can they use the release or partial

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Speaker 5: release of some of that money to free some of

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Speaker 5: both the US as well as is rally hostess is

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Speaker 5: they're held by Hamas, and tell Tehran if you want

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Speaker 5: any of this funds, you're going to have to ensure

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Speaker 5: the release of those hostages. But just as a point

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Speaker 5: of reference, when it is soldier a couple decades ago

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Speaker 5: was captured by Hamas. The deal that came out of

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Speaker 5: it was one thousand Hamas fighters for one Israeli's soldier.

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Speaker 5: So that's the scope of and the president of what

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Speaker 5: we're looking at.

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Speaker 1: Well, and I don't think that's going to be happening

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Speaker 1: this time. Kevin McCarthy says, refreeze the money, Brett, Is

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Speaker 1: that possible?

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Speaker 5: Well, the money currently is not in Iranian hands. It

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Speaker 5: is in a Katari bank, and the US does need

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Speaker 5: to green light it's further release by the Katari bank.

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Speaker 5: And so I think it's important here not to give

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Speaker 5: the impression that this money is already in Iran's hands.

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Speaker 5: As I said, look at because of and I think

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Speaker 5: there is certainly some strong indications that Iran new and.

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Speaker 4: In some.

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Speaker 5: Suggestion that there may have been irradiant involvement in this

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Speaker 5: attack as an effort to disrupt any advancement in the

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Speaker 5: Israel Saudi Arabia normalization of relations. So I think you know,

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Speaker 5: as that intelligence starts coming to the fore, it will

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Speaker 5: provide more cover for the Biden administration to say we're

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Speaker 5: not releasing those funds. We're not releasing those funds until

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Speaker 5: the following things happen.

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Speaker 1: I know you're not a military strategist, Brett, but before

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Speaker 1: you leave us, we're looking at some pretty tough pictures

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Speaker 1: here with constant bombardment. Now that night has fallen in Gaza.

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Speaker 1: What will happen of the Israeli's taken hostage.

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Speaker 5: Well, I think what we are looking at right now

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Speaker 5: is a plan by the Israeli forces to completely dismantle

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Speaker 5: Hamas's structure and their quasi government control over the Gaza strip.

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Speaker 5: On the Hamas side, I think they have to be

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Speaker 5: careful here because they have created images, video and just

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Speaker 5: obviously the reports of what's happened to civilians are horrifying.

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Speaker 5: And I think, you know, if in the case of

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Speaker 5: these hostages, any harm comes to them, any additional harm,

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Speaker 5: if they are not going to release them for an

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Speaker 5: extended period of time, that will only increase pressure international

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Speaker 5: pressure on Hamas. So I would expect that we're going

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Speaker 5: to see an effort to try and reach some sort

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Speaker 5: of negotiated agreement at least when it comes to a

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Speaker 5: significant portion of the civilian hostages.

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Speaker 2: Wow.

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Speaker 1: Great to have you with us, Ruin of the Global

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Speaker 1: Situation Room, A perfect time with conversation, Brett Wei, thank

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Speaker 1: you for the insights and bringing your experience to us

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Speaker 1: here on sound On. I'm joined in studio by Rick Davis,

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Speaker 1: of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Republican strategist who has deep

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Speaker 1: ties to the defense and intelligence communities here in Washington.

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Speaker 1: Before we assemble the panel, Rick, I just wonder your

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Speaker 1: first thought on this. This is going to be a

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Speaker 1: long night. It looks like in Gaza, what can Israel

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Speaker 1: do to protect its own Yeah.

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Speaker 8: Look, I think that the number one thing they're doing

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Speaker 8: right now is rooting out Hamas terras inside of Israel already,

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Speaker 8: and that operation continues this moment, and there is some

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Speaker 8: expectation that that roll up will will take some time.

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Speaker 8: And so regardless of whether or not the troops that

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Speaker 8: have amassed on a border with Gaza from Israel are

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Speaker 8: planning a ground assault, the.

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Speaker 9: Number one issue for the Israeli.

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Speaker 8: Defense and intelligence community is to make sure that the

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Speaker 8: terrorists that are within Israel can do no more harm.

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Speaker 9: And so once.

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Speaker 8: We see that operation starting to peak out, I think

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Speaker 8: you'll start to see the hammer of Israel come down

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Speaker 8: on the Gaza Strip and and it'll be interesting to see,

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Speaker 8: you know, how much support the US gives to that.

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Speaker 8: Our aircraft carriers in the region, our most high tech

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Speaker 8: carrier in our entire fleet, that's the Gerald Ford and

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Speaker 8: and this administration is fully committed as they've articulated to

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Speaker 8: Israel's defense.

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Speaker 1: Rick Davis with US Live in Washington. We will add

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Speaker 1: Genie Shanzo to the conversation. Our signature panel is up

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Speaker 1: next on an important day. Thanks for being with us

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Speaker 1: on sound On. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: one Eastern.

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Speaker 2: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 2: and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live

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Speaker 2: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 2: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 1: The Biden administration pledging unconditional support to Israel, but being

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Speaker 1: blamed all the while for many Republicans for causing or

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Speaker 1: enabling what we saw over the weekend in Israel. The

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Speaker 1: former Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, held a news

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Speaker 1: conference this morning. You might wonder why is well he's

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Speaker 1: no longer speaker. He sure looked and sounded like one

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Speaker 1: as he took aim at the Biden administration.

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Speaker 4: I think a new administration that goes to appeasement, that

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Speaker 4: didn't embrace Abraham Accords, that actually went after our allies

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Speaker 4: like Saudi Arabia and rewarded those who were evil like Oran.

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Speaker 1: That right there gives you challenges.

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Speaker 4: Secondly, the president's decision when it came to Afghanistan. People

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Speaker 4: then question would America be there?

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Speaker 1: He went on to talk about the administration's energy policy.

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Speaker 1: As we reassemble our panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno

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Speaker 1: are with us on this Monday edition of Sound on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick is with me in Washington and

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Speaker 1: Jeanie is in New York. What's the defense here for

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Speaker 1: this White House? Genie, the President's about to ask, likely

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Speaker 1: for a supplemental funding request for Israel. He's pledging support.

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Speaker 1: He actually agrees I think on most everything here involving

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Speaker 1: Israel with Kevin McCarthy. But Republicans are blaming him for

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Speaker 1: enabling what just happened.

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Speaker 10: They are and we heard it. You played the clip

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Speaker 10: from Mickey Haley, we heard it from Chris Christy, we

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Speaker 10: heard it from Donald Trump, all of these people running

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Speaker 10: for president. You know, I think we can chalk this

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Speaker 10: up to an election year. This is what happens in

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Speaker 10: an election year. You know, the Biden administration is not

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Speaker 10: responsible by any stretch of the imagination for what happened

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Speaker 10: horrifically in the Middle East yesterday. In the last two days,

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Speaker 10: they you know what the six billion dollars says, as

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Speaker 10: Anthony Blinkoln talked about, there's no evidence any of that

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Speaker 10: has been used, but arguably the optics don't look great,

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Speaker 10: and they've to address that. I think what has happened

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Speaker 10: with the Biden administration, like so many leaders around the world,

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Speaker 10: is they were lulled into a sense that the Middle

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Speaker 10: East had gone relatively calm and quiet. You know, we

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Speaker 10: heard from Jake Sullivan eight days ago that the Middle

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Speaker 10: East was shockingly quiet, and that, unlike his predecessors, he

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Speaker 10: was able to turn his attention elsewhere. And of course,

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Speaker 10: if you know the history of the Middle East, just

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Speaker 10: when everything seems quiet, that's when something like this happens,

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Speaker 10: and that's what did happen. So they do have to

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Speaker 10: take responsibility for that. And he's got to do what

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Speaker 10: he's doing, which is pledged support for Israel, and see

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Speaker 10: if the Republicans in the House can get their act

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Speaker 10: together to make sure that that money is sent and

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Speaker 10: the support is sent to Israel. Hard to do without

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Speaker 10: a Speaker of the House.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, we're going to talk a bit more about

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Speaker 1: the speaker battle here, Rick. The President said just last

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Speaker 1: week that he was preparing to announce a major address

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Speaker 1: US on funding the war in Ukraine in which she

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Speaker 1: would reframe the argument here ahead of what will be

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Speaker 1: a brutal debate I'm sure in Washington over all of this.

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Speaker 1: Once we get a speaker and end up funding our government,

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Speaker 1: what happens to the Ukraine argument when he now needs

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Speaker 1: to make one for Israel.

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Speaker 9: Yeah.

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Speaker 8: It's a crowded space in the world today, and the

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Speaker 8: President's calendar is even more crowded than it otherwise would be.

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Speaker 9: And we've heard repeatedly.

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Speaker 8: All you know, prior to the attack on Israel from

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Speaker 8: Republicans in the House saying we expect the President to

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Speaker 8: make his case for continued Ukraine funding. Otherwise we're not

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Speaker 8: going to lift a finger. And so he's getting the

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Speaker 8: demand side from Republicans in Congress saying we're not going

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Speaker 8: to act. Of course they can't until they get a speaker,

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Speaker 8: but we're not going to act even with a speaker

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Speaker 8: until you make your case on why by the way,

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Speaker 8: And I think that's a very good thing for Joe

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Speaker 8: Biden to do.

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Speaker 9: There's a great case to.

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Speaker 8: Be made for our support for your Ukraine, and so

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Speaker 8: I think that would result in a positive outcome for funding.

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Speaker 8: The downside is that right now there's a shooting war

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Speaker 8: with one of our allies, one of our strongest allies

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Speaker 8: in the world, and our primary ally in the region,

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Speaker 8: and we have to be there for them. And so

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Speaker 8: if I were, you know, drawing the lines, I would

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Speaker 8: say it's very much time and appropriate for Joe Biden

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Speaker 8: president to go to the American people right now and

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Speaker 8: talk about why Israel is so important and why our

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Speaker 8: support for Israel is needed, and why we're going to

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Speaker 8: need to hunker down for the long term there. In

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Speaker 8: other words, this is not a weekend kind of initiative.

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Speaker 8: This is going to be a war that will spend

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Speaker 8: time just like Ukraine, and we got to be there

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Speaker 8: for them too.

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Speaker 1: So, Genie, did this Ukraine speech that we're anticipating just

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Speaker 1: turn into a dangerous world speech if you will from

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden?

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Speaker 10: Yeah, it very much may have. And I don't think

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Speaker 10: we know you, and you know a challenge for the

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Speaker 10: Biden administration and quite frankly for all Western nations and

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Speaker 10: nations around the world who have issued calls of support

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Speaker 10: for Israel in the last forty eight hours, is that

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Speaker 10: unlike what we've seen in the past, and we saw

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Speaker 10: it over the weekend. It was stunning the pictures on

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Speaker 10: social media coming out of Israel. That is going to intensify.

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Speaker 10: And so as we issue calls and support financially, militarily

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Speaker 10: and otherwise for Israel, we are going to have to

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Speaker 10: contend with the really difficult situation Israel finds itself in.

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Speaker 10: Does it try to occupy Gaza? Look at the pictures

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Speaker 10: coming out of Gaza just today. They are horrifying, you

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Speaker 10: see them, and there as horrifying as the ones we

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Speaker 10: saw on the other side early in what happened over

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Speaker 10: the weekend. The Biden administration is going to have to

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Speaker 10: contend with all of that, and that probably means they

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Speaker 10: are going to have to ask Benjamin and Yahoo to

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Speaker 10: stop what he has been doing domestically, to form some

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Speaker 10: kind of cab that is unified and that is focused

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Speaker 10: on Israel and not focused on his political survival, and

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Speaker 10: get out some of those ministers he's got in that

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Speaker 10: cabinet right now who are saying and have been saying

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Speaker 10: pretty horrific and anti democratic things. Biden has to contend

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Speaker 10: with all of that as he makes this case to

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Speaker 10: the American public to fund Israel in the same way

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Speaker 10: he's got to do it with Ukraine and the issues

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Speaker 10: of corruption and elsewhere. So it is an enormous challenge,

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Speaker 10: not of Biden's doing, but something that we have a

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Speaker 10: duty to support. But it is not going to be

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Speaker 10: easy because we do have these pictures coming out and

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Speaker 10: they are particularly chilling.

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Speaker 1: They sure are rick. We see the headline now in

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Speaker 1: the Associated Press hamas Wing Warrens that Israeli strikes will

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Speaker 1: bring hostage deaths. What we're about to see unfold and

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Speaker 1: are seeing unfold in Gaza does make you wonder where

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Speaker 1: the line is here and the to which Israel could

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Speaker 1: overplay its hands.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I don't think you have to worry about Israel

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Speaker 8: overplaying its hand right now. One of the things we

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Speaker 8: have to remember and take a step back. This is

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Speaker 8: a horrific event that's occurred in Israel, innocent people being

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Speaker 8: slaughtered by Hamas terrorists.

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Speaker 9: But Americans were killed too.

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Speaker 8: Last count I just saw was nine Americans have died

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Speaker 8: at the hands of Hamas terras. If this were anywhere

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Speaker 8: else but Israel right now today, the US would be

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Speaker 8: preparing significant countermeasures to Hamas on a global scale, including

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Speaker 8: their chief benefactor Iran.

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Speaker 9: On our own right.

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Speaker 8: Most of the conversation has been how can the US

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Speaker 8: help Israel, But we need to help ourselves too. It

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Speaker 8: is absolutely unacceptable by any stretch of the imagination that

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Speaker 8: Hamas has killed Americans, potentially holds them hostage inside Gaza

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Speaker 8: and could be among those that they slaughter if they

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Speaker 8: can keep this commitment that somehow, if the Israeli's bomb Gaza,

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Speaker 8: they'll start killing hostages. This started conversation started with paying

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Speaker 8: for hostages release out of Iran. I'm not going to

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Speaker 8: second guess that. I'm happy those people are back safely

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Speaker 8: in the United States, especially right now. Can't imagine what

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Speaker 8: would happen if they were still hostage in Iran. But

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Speaker 8: we have to be able to project our power in

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Speaker 8: a way that makes every American safe as much as

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Speaker 8: possible around the world, regardless of where they are.

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Speaker 1: Is it the right thing to send the aircraft carrier

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Speaker 1: strike group closer to Israel? Genie?

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Speaker 10: To make Rick's point, it is the right thing to do,

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Speaker 10: and the point is to show support, but also to

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Speaker 10: deter anything that could escalate in this it, particularly as

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Speaker 10: it pertains to Iran, particularly as it pertains to Hepola,

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Speaker 10: We've got to deter, We've got to contain, and so

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Speaker 10: so those aircrafts, they are important to make a statement

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Speaker 10: that we are there to do that. So it is

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Speaker 10: absolutely the right move.

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Speaker 1: We have a lot more to talk about with Rick

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Speaker 1: Davis and Genie Shanzana, remembering that this is all happening

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Speaker 1: domestically here in the US against the backdrop of a

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Speaker 1: speaker's fight and lawmakers are coming back into town.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

442
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 2: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

443
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

444
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

445
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 1: And to think we were going to be leading with

446
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,879
Speaker 1: a speaker's battle today, that will be the big story

447
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,640
Speaker 1: of the week here in Washington, even with what's happening

448
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 1: in Israel, and they do collide in a way as

449
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 1: we consider what will likely be a sizeable supplemental request

450
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 1: from the administration the Biden Whitehouse when it comes to

451
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 1: supporting Israel. I'm Joe Matthew and Washington, joined by Rick

452
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 1: Davis and Jeanie shanzan Oh Bloomberg Politics contributors. Only hours

453
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,359
Speaker 1: after the former Speaker of the House, Yes, Kevin mc carthy,

454
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 1: actually held a news conference on Capitol Hill with an

455
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 1: eye on Israel.

456
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 4: The very first thing we need to do is rescue

457
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 4: the American hostages. President Biden's number one priority right now

458
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 4: must be finding out how many Americans have been taken

459
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 4: hostage and get them home.

460
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:22,120
Speaker 1: He's actually giving direction to the administration here as if

461
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 1: he were still Speaker. Rick Davis, what's your thought on

462
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 1: why Kevin McCarthy On a Monday morning, the day before

463
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 1: the two candidates for speakers, Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan,

464
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 1: are to debate in front of the caucus. Why is

465
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 1: he holding a news conference?

466
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 8: Well, I would say everything he said in that news

467
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 8: conference Joe Biden should have said over the weekend on

468
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 8: national television.

469
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 9: So I'm glad he's out there talking about this stuff.

470
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 1: He blamed Joe Biden for whatever other than that part,

471
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 1: or he could have taken responsibility, I guess.

472
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 9: But the bottom line is.

473
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 8: He is still I think the most high visibility Republican

474
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 8: in Congress, right, even more so than virtually everyone.

475
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: So would conference have asked him to do this?

476
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 8: Or Man, I'm sure he took it upon himself saying, look,

477
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 8: I'm still a leader in my caucus. We don't have

478
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 8: a speaker to sound out about this, and I'm just

479
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 8: going to take the.

480
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 9: Lead and do it now.

481
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 8: Look, i mean he's got an ego too, right, and

482
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 8: I'm quite certain that you know his view is take

483
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 8: the heat off my caucus, go out there, you know,

484
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 8: articulate this policy and all of that in nursed my

485
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 8: benefit because I still look like a leader in my caucus. See,

486
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 8: things get tied up there after a couple of days

487
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,880
Speaker 8: in the caucus where they can't come up with a consensus,

488
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 8: maybe they will turn back to old Kevin McCarthy, Congressman

489
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 8: from California.

490
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 1: So you're holding out for that.

491
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 8: I'm not holding out for that, but he's certainly putting

492
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 8: it in play himself.

493
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,919
Speaker 1: Well, listen, if no one else gets to two eighteen,

494
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,880
Speaker 1: it certainly makes you wonder, Genie, how is what's happening

495
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 1: in Israel right now? Never mind the request for Ukraine

496
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 1: get an impact. Who becomes the next Speaker of the.

497
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 10: House, it's going to have a huge impact. And you know,

498
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 10: let's let's be honest. Kevin McCarthy went out and gave

499
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 10: a press conference. He is not speaker, which means he

500
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 10: wasn't briefed on the situation. So I'm not so sure

501
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 10: that Joe Biden should have, you know, taken any lessons

502
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 10: from what Kevin McCarthy is doing. Presumably Joe Biden was

503
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 10: briefed and has been briefed. He's been in contact with

504
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,400
Speaker 10: net and Yahoo, his team has as well, and everybody

505
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 10: over in Israel. Because Kevin McCarthy couldn't hold his job,

506
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 10: he has not gotten any of the information he needs

507
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 10: to make a clear assessment on this. So, you know,

508
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 10: Kevin McCarthy, he's trying to line up in case they

509
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 10: can't get to two seventeen to eighteen, which is a

510
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 10: big possibility at this point, he would like to be,

511
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 10: you know, called out as the speaker in waiting to

512
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 10: come out. I think it's probably more likely they may

513
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 10: point McHenry for thirty or sixty days on an interim

514
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 10: basis to do something like that, but who knows. You know,

515
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 10: Mike Lowler was over out over the weekend. He's the

516
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 10: representative from New York. He's saying he would welcome McCarthy back.

517
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 10: So he still has the ninety six percent support. But

518
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 10: I think we have to be very very cautious about

519
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 10: what he's saying because again he has not gotten the

520
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 10: briefing or the benefit. Even the minority leader did, Hakeem Jeffries.

521
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 10: So you know, Kevin McCarthy is going out on a

522
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 10: limb here in an effort to do what he does,

523
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 10: which is try to get this job back.

524
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 1: Seems pretty clear no one is close to two hundred

525
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 1: and eighteen. Rick, we'll hear from Steve Scalise and Jim

526
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 1: Jordan tomorrow. But what's your thought on this idea of

527
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 1: a temporary speaker, a caretaker speaker, maybe a Patrick McHenry

528
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: with an end date that allows them to actually maybe

529
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 1: get something done. Yeah.

530
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 9: Look, I mean, look at the process.

531
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 8: Monday, they all get back today, They'll have a little

532
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 8: conference tonight. When they get in, they'll start pitching members

533
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 8: in a private caucus meeting on Tuesday, and on Wednesday.

534
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 9: They're expected to take a vote.

535
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 8: They've already said that they're going to continue to take

536
00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 8: votes in the caucus amongst themselves until somebody looks like

537
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 8: they can get to two hundred and seventeen votes, and

538
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 8: that means the fight is going to be behind closed

539
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 8: doors inside the caucus, and who knows how long that

540
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 8: will take. It took Kevin McCarthy fifteen ballots an all

541
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 8: night to do it. This is even a bigger divide

542
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,719
Speaker 8: because there's actually two active campaigns that at best are

543
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 8: split in the caucus right down the middle. And so

544
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 8: by Thursday morning, if they wake up and they don't

545
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 8: have a pretty good idea of who the consensus candidate's

546
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 8: going to be by then I think they have to

547
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 8: take action and empower Patrick McHenry to be an acting speaker.

548
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 8: Regardless of how much time they give him, it's going

549
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 8: to be beyond when the cr runs out. And his

550
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 8: job at that point will be to pass appropriations bills,

551
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 8: and if need to cut another deal for a cr

552
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 8: beyond that, and if that's the only thing that happens

553
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 8: this week and they don't come up with a speaker

554
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 8: that will at least let Congress keep moving forward.

555
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 1: That would be actually enormous progress based on what we've seen.

556
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 1: Genie would how came Jeffrey's sign onto something like that?

557
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 10: He might And you know, at this point, the funding

558
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 10: needed for Israel and Ukraine is so critical that I

559
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 10: think Democrats should seriously consider something like that. But you know,

560
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 10: we're talking about this speaker. The dysfunction in Washington is everywhere.

561
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 10: We need the ambassador to Israel to be confirmed. We

562
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 10: need Tommy Tupperville to stop holding up these nominations from

563
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 10: the State Department. They need to be confirmed. We need

564
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 10: to get the speaker done, We need a budget pass.

565
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 10: And maybe, in the best case scenario, this could be

566
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 10: a teachable moment for Americans to say, this kind of

567
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 10: domestic you know, really dysfunction has real world consequences, and

568
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 10: we are seeing those played out in the moment. We've

569
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 10: got to address all of these issues in order to

570
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 10: move forward. In any way that is becoming of the

571
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 10: United States and the country that we should be.

572
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 1: Well, we've got a moment here, Rick, I have to

573
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 1: ask you separately about the comment from Ron McDaniel over

574
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 1: the weekend. Of course, she runs the RNC, and she's

575
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 1: being beat up for suggesting this is a moment of

576
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 1: opportunity for Republican candidates. It was from an interview on

577
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 1: Fox Here's what she said.

578
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 10: Absolutely, I think this is a great opportunity for our

579
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 10: candidates to contrast where Republicans have stood with Israel.

580
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 11: Time and time again and Joe Biden has been weak.

581
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 1: Was that just bad wording or something that needs to

582
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 1: be I think that's.

583
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 8: You know, crass opportunism, right, I mean, like, what kind

584
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 8: of moment of courage was that where she wouldn't rather

585
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 8: than you know, say we should be uniting our country

586
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 8: politically around defense of Israel, to hey, let's take advantage

587
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 8: of this politically domestically.

588
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 1: I guess this will be an issue on the campaign

589
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 1: trail one way or the other. Though, right, people say,

590
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,720
Speaker 1: we don't vote on geopolitics, but we're going to have

591
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 1: two big geopolitical influences to weigh in on.

592
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 8: Yeah, the poster's got a lot of catch up work

593
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 8: to do. Israel has not been on a single poll

594
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 8: that's been taken in the last year, and now we're

595
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 8: going to see a lot of data about like you know,

596
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 8: where the country is on offending Israel.

597
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 1: Yeah. Rick Davis with me in Washington. Genie Schanzeno is

598
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 1: in New York. This is Bloomberg.

599
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the

600
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 2: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

601
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 2: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

602
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

603
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 2: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

604
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 1: And we're live in Washington. I'm Joe Matthew now joined

605
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 1: by Kaylee Lions with the headline nine hundred. The death

606
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: toll in Israel topping nine hundred according to the latest

607
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 1: reporting that we have here, Kayley, in a story that's

608
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 1: just getting uglear as we go, night has fallen in Gaza.

609
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 1: We've seen some heavy bombardment as we see a warning

610
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 1: as well. The Associated Press reporting a short time ago

611
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 1: Hamas saying that Israeli strikes, we'll bring hostage deaths, and

612
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 1: this is the balancing act that we're seeing here with

613
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 1: those hostages of course stuck in Gaza.

614
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 11: Yeah, it's absolutely devastating, not only when you consider the

615
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 11: death toll, but consider the elderly women and children who

616
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 11: have been taken from Israel. And now there's a very

617
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:15,839
Speaker 11: real question about what exactly will happen to these hostages,

618
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 11: and frankly, when or if there can be a resolution

619
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 11: to this conflict in the immediate term. What started over

620
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 11: the weekend, frankly, is still ongoing. This has been kind

621
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 11: of a continuous attack that we are seeing playing out,

622
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 11: and the devastation is only rising as time goes on.

623
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:37,280
Speaker 1: We heard from Ron Durmer earlier, Israeli's Minister of Strategic Affairs,

624
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,239
Speaker 1: was on Bloomberg's Surveillance. Let's listen to what he said.

625
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 12: The critical question of whether we're going to be able

626
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:47,720
Speaker 12: to achieve this historic piece with Saudi Arabia that pulls

627
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 12: pushs the whole Arab Israeli conflicted to a completely different

628
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 12: place and can lead to a broader reconciliation between Muslims

629
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,839
Speaker 12: and Jews as well. The critical factor will be how

630
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 12: Israel emerges from this fight, do we emerge as a victor?

631
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 12: Because people may peace with winners. People make peace with

632
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:07,879
Speaker 12: a strong they do not make peace with a WII.

633
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 1: He went on to say that Iran may well have

634
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 1: known about the Gaza attack, which for many seems to

635
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 1: be I guess obvious, but we're waiting for some real

636
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 1: evidence on that kill.

637
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 11: Yeah, we still have a lot of questions that remain

638
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 11: and the answered as to exactly what Iran knew, what

639
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 11: role it may have played. But of course, we heard

640
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 11: the likes of now former Speaker Kevin McCarthy talking specifically

641
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,760
Speaker 11: about Iran at the Capitol earlier today. Yes, talking about

642
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 11: how the US just last month released six billion dollars

643
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 11: in frozen Iranian assets in exchange for the release of

644
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 11: five Americans that were being detained by Iran. Kind of

645
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 11: hearkening back to the question around hostages and just the

646
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 11: Iranian policy of the Biden administration. Knowing that a lot

647
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 11: of these questions still remain unanswered.

648
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a big point of debate here. It

649
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 1: certainly played out on Sunday morning television, Nikki Haley accusing

650
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:01,839
Speaker 1: the administration and Anthony blankn have being irresponsible to even

651
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 1: argue with that fact. But we have to let everyone

652
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,239
Speaker 1: know that that money hasn't moved. I mean it was

653
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 1: put into a new account, and not a dollar of

654
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 1: that has actually been allocated. The question is this fungible?

655
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 1: Does that mean Iran can move money around in advance

656
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 1: of getting those dollars. Anthony Blincoln was asked that on

657
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 1: Meet the Press. Here's how he reacted to the idea

658
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 1: of fungible money in Iran.

659
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 6: Iran has unfortunately always used and focused its funds on

660
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 6: supporting terrorism, on supporting groups like AMAS. And it's done

661
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 6: that when they've been sanctions, it's done that when there

662
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:37,000
Speaker 6: haven't been sanctions.

663
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 1: And it's always prioritized that.

664
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:41,239
Speaker 6: And again I come back to the proposition that from

665
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 6: these funds have always been under the law, available to

666
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 6: Iran to use for human of train purpose.

667
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:50,319
Speaker 1: This is where we start our conversation with Mick Mulvaney,

668
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:52,919
Speaker 1: of course, the former acting chief of Staff, the Trump

669
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 1: White House, co founder of the Freedom Caucus, who has

670
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,760
Speaker 1: an understanding of both ends. Certainly from the Republican perspective,

671
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 1: both Thans of Pennsylvania Avenue and it's with us now,

672
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 1: make it's good to see you. I wonder your thoughts

673
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 1: on this, knowing that that money has not been unlocked,

674
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 1: is it still something that you blame the administration for

675
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 1: setting up?

676
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 13: Hey, Joe, Okay, let's go to see you. I'll answer

677
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 13: your question because you've asked you a question, but I

678
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 13: really don't want to get in the blame game at

679
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 13: this point. The answer your question is yes, that I've

680
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:23,720
Speaker 13: said from the very beginning, I'm not the only one.

681
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 13: It's obviously become an issue in wider circles. If it's

682
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 13: getting asked on a Sunday talk show, it means even

683
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,319
Speaker 13: the Democrats are talking about it now. And that is

684
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 13: the fungibility of this money. That yeah, if the six

685
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 13: billion is Saudi excuse me, is Iranian money, no question.

686
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 13: We are monitoring it. There's no question there are limitations

687
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 13: that cannot be used for anything but humanitarian purposes. All

688
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 13: of those statements are true. But if you were going

689
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 13: to spend a dollar on food today and I give

690
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 13: you an extra dollar to spend on food today, does

691
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:53,919
Speaker 13: that free up the dollar you were going to spend

692
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 13: on food to spend on something else, like maybe guns.

693
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:59,839
Speaker 13: Sure it does. That's just common sense and Blinkeln sort

694
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 13: of go halfway on his answer by saying that Iran

695
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:05,439
Speaker 13: is always funded this kind of stuff, And I guess

696
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 13: the follow up response would be yeah, uh, secretary, And

697
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 13: if you give them six billion dollars of additional money,

698
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 13: do you think they're going to spend more on on terrorism?

699
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:16,879
Speaker 13: The ANSWER's got to be yes. So but again, I'm

700
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 13: more interested right now in the American response that Biden

701
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 13: administration is going to have a lot of answers to

702
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 13: questions to answer the net and Yahoo administration is going

703
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 13: to have a lot of questions to answer, but now

704
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 13: is probably not the best time to do that. I

705
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:31,279
Speaker 13: get the fact that folks are politicizing it because that's

706
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:33,800
Speaker 13: the DC we live in. It doesn't surprise me that

707
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 13: Kevin raises it, you know, because that's Congress is, you know,

708
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 13: sort of what Congress does. They're not really involved in

709
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 13: the day to day on responding like the administration is.

710
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:44,880
Speaker 13: But I'm not sure it benefits many people by starting

711
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 13: to point fingers on the second day.

712
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 11: Okay, so Mick, let's then talk about what the appropriate

713
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 11: response is. You have been in the West Wing advising

714
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 11: a former president on policy, if you were advising the administration,

715
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 11: Now what should it do? Knowing that really the administration

716
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 11: at this point is where a lot of the action

717
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 11: is going to have to emanate from, because Congress at

718
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:06,319
Speaker 11: the moment is a little paralyzed with no Speaker.

719
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 9: Of the House.

720
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 13: Yeah, Katie, you're right, but Congress wouldn't have a role

721
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 13: anyway short of doing sort of a quick resolution of

722
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 13: support for Israel, which is important, don't get me wrong.

723
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 13: It certainly carries weight in the international sort of arena.

724
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 13: But the administration is going to be the one, even

725
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 13: with a properly functioning Congress, to be in charge for

726
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:26,439
Speaker 13: at least the first couple of weeks.

727
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:27,240
Speaker 9: If you get.

728
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 13: Deep into this and you need to give additional authorities

729
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 13: that are not already bound up in law, you like

730
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:35,359
Speaker 13: we're doing in Ukraine, we're getting supplemental spendings, We're going

731
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,839
Speaker 13: above and beyond what's already hardwired into the law, then yeah,

732
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:41,800
Speaker 13: Congress would have to act. But we've already got agreements

733
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:44,360
Speaker 13: in law with Israel on sending the money, on sending

734
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,359
Speaker 13: the material, on sharing information and people with them, and

735
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:51,720
Speaker 13: those things will be executed now by the executive branch.

736
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 13: That's why they are there. That's what they're supposed to do.

737
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 13: So yeah, the answer to your question is what should

738
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,360
Speaker 13: the administration be doing? And we're starting to see pieces

739
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 13: of this now. You're already seeing the Pentagon move assets,

740
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 13: you're already seeing them send support and so forth, and

741
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 13: that's the right thing to do. The larger answer is

742
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 13: an all of government approach. You can call a cabinet

743
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 13: meeting and say, look, I'm not sure what the Department

744
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 13: of Education can do here, if anything, but if you

745
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:19,359
Speaker 13: figure out some way to help in this effort, let

746
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 13: me know. This needs to be an all of government response.

747
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 13: And my guess is if they haven't done that already,

748
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:25,440
Speaker 13: they'll be doing it shortly.

749
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:30,719
Speaker 1: The former speaker was asked about this strange timing for

750
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:33,280
Speaker 1: a news conference when you're no longer holding the gavel.

751
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:35,960
Speaker 1: But Kevin McCarthy was asked about the supplemental request for

752
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 1: funding in Ukraine along with a looming and expected supplemental

753
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 1: request to help in Israel. It's interesting the direction he

754
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 1: took with this answer. Let's listen right now.

755
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 4: Ukraine still has another nine billion that they can draw

756
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:58,319
Speaker 4: down sitting there for arms. The question comes now in

757
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:00,160
Speaker 4: our stockpiles.

758
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 1: We need a whole.

759
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 4: New ability for the procurement and movement of the building

760
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:13,720
Speaker 4: of our weapons. It's too slow, it takes too long,

761
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:16,840
Speaker 4: and we've watched others try to take advantage of it.

762
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 1: Mick Maulvaney, he said, Hakeing Jeffreys agrees with him on that.

763
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 1: I don't know if the minority leader wanted that to

764
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:28,640
Speaker 1: go public here, but there's a lot in this question.

765
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:30,799
Speaker 1: I realized. I just wonder what's going to happen with

766
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:34,760
Speaker 1: competing interests when it comes to Ukraine, Israel and restocking

767
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:38,560
Speaker 1: our own munitions here. If you look at the shares

768
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:42,840
Speaker 1: of the defense contractors, investors obviously expect a lot of

769
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 1: money to be spent. Will it go in all of

770
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 1: those areas?

771
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 13: Let me answer this that this way. It's absolutely good

772
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,319
Speaker 13: to Israel. There's no question the two things are not

773
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 13: even close. This is not an equivalence between Israel and Ukraine.

774
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,840
Speaker 13: Israel is one of our closest, most historically important allies.

775
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 13: It is a nuclear power. It's our only friend, although

776
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 13: we're starting to garner other friends. We talk about that

777
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:06,720
Speaker 13: in a bit. If you want to in the area,

778
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 13: Israel is it's up there with Australia and the UK right,

779
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 13: that's one of our best friends. They're going to get

780
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 13: what they need from us. You heard that from the

781
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 13: Biden White House, so clearly it's one of those Byparson

782
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 13: things in Washington, d C.

783
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:20,360
Speaker 4: Right now.

784
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:21,240
Speaker 9: Ukraine is different.

785
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 13: Ukraine is not one of our historical allies. There's still

786
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:27,840
Speaker 13: these issues about corruption that I think are rightly raised.

787
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:30,359
Speaker 13: Ukraine's one of the most corrupt countries in the world.

788
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:32,200
Speaker 13: I know people want to sort of look the other

789
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 13: way on that because of what's happening there militarily, but

790
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:36,839
Speaker 13: that is a true statement. So the two things are

791
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:40,480
Speaker 13: not the same. As to our rebuilding of our stockpiles.

792
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 13: I'm glad to hear it's bipartisan. I hope they figure

793
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 13: out a way to pay for it. One of the

794
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:50,280
Speaker 13: things that I think is going to become painfully obvious

795
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:54,760
Speaker 13: in the years to come after Ukraine, after Israel's can

796
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 13: we afford to do everything we want to do? Or

797
00:42:57,480 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 13: have we spent our nation's wealth, our savings and our

798
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:03,560
Speaker 13: grandchildren's wealth and savings on other things. When you run

799
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:06,759
Speaker 13: up thirty three train dollars in debt, you will have limitations.

800
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 13: I think it was ten years ago, Joe, when the

801
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 13: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs testified at the Budget Committee

802
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:14,799
Speaker 13: and he was asked, what's the greatest threat to our

803
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 13: national security? And at that time ten years ago, he

804
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 13: said the nation's debt. And I think the debt at

805
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:21,759
Speaker 13: that time was half of what it is today. So

806
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 13: those are real conversations. It's easy for politicians to say

807
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:27,279
Speaker 13: beat their chests and say, you know, we give all

808
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:28,759
Speaker 13: the money that Israel needs, but at some point you

809
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 13: actually have to pay for that, and that's going to

810
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 13: get harder and harder to do.

811
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:35,399
Speaker 11: Well and paying for it. The issue of the debt

812
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 11: and of government spending, Mick, is one that is constant

813
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 11: on Capitol Hill. We still have a government that is

814
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:43,759
Speaker 11: going to need to be funded past November seventeenth. The

815
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 11: no real path at this point to figure out how

816
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 11: to get there, not just because of the issue of

817
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:50,840
Speaker 11: funding for Ukraine or Israel or anything else, but funding

818
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 11: as a whole. And this was an issue for former

819
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 11: Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who we mentioned a moment ago, was

820
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 11: speaking on Capitol Hill on this Israel issue. As we

821
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:01,879
Speaker 11: look for his success or figure out if either Steve

822
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 11: Scalie or Jim Jordan could get enough votes this week

823
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:06,800
Speaker 11: to get the gavel. Does this conflict in the Middle

824
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 11: East have an accelerant effect on that process?

825
00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:10,359
Speaker 12: Mith?

826
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,359
Speaker 11: What do you think it makes the Republican Conference think

827
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 11: about trying to coalesce around one individual.

828
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 13: It could, Although you know, I'm putting myself fi because

829
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 13: I've been I've sort of been in this circumstance when

830
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 13: we were opposing John Bayner for Speaker. I still think

831
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 13: it's different because we had a coordinated effort. It wasn't

832
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:28,400
Speaker 13: a bunch of anarchists and so forth. It was a

833
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:30,799
Speaker 13: little bit different. But there are certainly parallels, and I

834
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 13: acknowledge those that if we were having that fight and

835
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 13: someone came to the podium at a Republican conference and said, well,

836
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 13: we have to do something now because of Israel, right,

837
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 13: my response to that is, why what are we going

838
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:42,640
Speaker 13: to be called on to do? What is the House

839
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:45,360
Speaker 13: going to be doing in the next week on Israel?

840
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 13: The answer is nothing. And if somebody got up to

841
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 13: say that, I would dismiss that person as being non serious.

842
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 13: They're using this as an excuse to sort of avoid

843
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:56,399
Speaker 13: the issues at hand. Again, I'm not defending what Matt

844
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:58,920
Speaker 13: Gay's is by any stretch the imagination. But if someone

845
00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:00,839
Speaker 13: got up and said that, I can see where certain

846
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 13: members would say that doesn't change the analysis.

847
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:03,839
Speaker 14: Here.

848
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 13: Listen, if we get twenty days into this, thirty days

849
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 13: into this, as you get close to the government, the

850
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:11,280
Speaker 13: government funding issue, as you might have to start acting

851
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:15,319
Speaker 13: in the legislature on Israel, those things are becoming can

852
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 13: become real, but they're not real this week. I don't

853
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:22,400
Speaker 13: think it changes the dynamic in this week Joey opened

854
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:23,799
Speaker 13: or I think it was kaylor who said, you know,

855
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 13: will it be Kevin, Will it be Steve Scalie or

856
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,879
Speaker 13: Jim Jordan. I still think there's an equal likely chance

857
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 13: that it's Kevin McCarthy because I still think he's the

858
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 13: only person who can get the votes, and that may

859
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 13: become more apparent by the end of the week.

860
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:40,759
Speaker 1: I'm hearing this more and more fascinating, and it's just

861
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:43,399
Speaker 1: it's amazing to hear it from Mick mulvaney, who knows

862
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 1: these two players about as well as anybody. Mick. Is

863
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:49,880
Speaker 1: that why Kevin McCarthy held a news conference this morning?

864
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 1: He sure was acting and sounding like a speaker. Yeah, Well,

865
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 1: I don't think.

866
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:56,719
Speaker 13: I don't think that shouldn't come as a surprise to anybody,

867
00:45:57,040 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 13: especially after Trump got into the race over the weekend.

868
00:46:00,520 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 13: Trump coming out for Jordan hurts Jim, and listen, I

869
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:05,760
Speaker 13: would be voting for Jim Jordan for speaker.

870
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:06,319
Speaker 5: Let's be clear.

871
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:08,560
Speaker 13: I would be supporting him on the floor if I

872
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:11,280
Speaker 13: were there. Trump coming out for him makes it highly

873
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:15,320
Speaker 13: unlikely that Jim will become speaker because that will upset

874
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 13: enough people on the left and the center of my

875
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 13: party to say, there's no way I'm voting for Jordan.

876
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 13: Trump had kept quiet. I think that could be different.

877
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 13: I still don't think Steve Scales is enough support in

878
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 13: the party. I keep coming back in all of these

879
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 13: dynamics of there's one person who can get the votes,

880
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:33,719
Speaker 13: and it's Kevin McCarthy. So it doesn't surprise me as

881
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:35,759
Speaker 13: that they're speaking. By the way, members of Congress, we

882
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 13: always used to want to have press conferences. Members People say, oh,

883
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 13: Kim McCarthy's having a press conference because he wants to

884
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:43,520
Speaker 13: be speaker. Members of Congress would have a press conference

885
00:46:43,560 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 13: every day if somebody would cover them. We love cameras,

886
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:48,799
Speaker 13: especially when we're elected office, so.

887
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:52,759
Speaker 1: It's so much for the humility, so much for the

888
00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:54,879
Speaker 1: humility of losing the gavel. I don't know, maybe I'm

889
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 1: just maybe that's just me. I don't think I would

890
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:58,759
Speaker 1: have held that news conference this morning, Kaylee. But just

891
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:01,800
Speaker 1: imagine I hope you lost the gallup Hadatchine if he

892
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 1: becomes speaker. Though, we're going to play this tape back, Nick.

893
00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 1: I hate to interrupt you, but thank you for that.

894
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:08,879
Speaker 1: He's not the only one who has suggested as much here.

895
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 1: Mick knows them though he talked to them over the weekend.

896
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:13,319
Speaker 11: Yeah, of course. I just wonder when he says Kevin

897
00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:15,440
Speaker 11: McCarthy's the only one who can get the votes, does

898
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:17,600
Speaker 11: that mean he gets some of those eight Republicans who

899
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:20,800
Speaker 11: voted to oust him back Democrats come into the picture.

900
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:23,359
Speaker 11: Just how does that math equation add up?

901
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 1: And you thought things were confused on Friday, This doesn't

902
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:30,080
Speaker 1: help us understand any more. Big thanks to Mick mulvaney,

903
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 1: who's with us each week at this time on sound On.

904
00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:35,719
Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew with Kaylee Lines. This is Bloomberg.

905
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:40,520
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the

906
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 2: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

907
00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:47,839
Speaker 2: tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app.

908
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,839
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

909
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

910
00:47:56,760 --> 00:48:00,400
Speaker 1: Live from Washington with initial reactions from the Capitol today.

911
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 1: So the Hamas attack over the weekend in Israel and

912
00:48:03,600 --> 00:48:06,920
Speaker 1: now the response with heavy bombardment that we're reporting on

913
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:10,240
Speaker 1: in Gaza. Keep your eyes on the terminal for more

914
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 1: tracking the price of oil as well, Kaylie. We're at

915
00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:16,279
Speaker 1: just about eighty six dollars a bar a little more

916
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:19,560
Speaker 1: when it comes to WTI crude. Brent also moving on this,

917
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:21,439
Speaker 1: and there are a lot of questions about how much

918
00:48:21,520 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 1: more movement we could see.

919
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:28,360
Speaker 11: Yeah, up four percent today. The questions really surround two things.

920
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:32,320
Speaker 11: Won the issue of Iran. We've already discussed Kevin McCarthy

921
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 11: earlier today talking about how the US needs to be

922
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:38,759
Speaker 11: more harshly enforcing sanctions against Iranian crude, what that could

923
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 11: mean for global supplies and therefore prices. But also if

924
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 11: this conflict spilt has ripple effects around the rest of

925
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 11: the Middle East, that could affect the flow of crude

926
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 11: to the rest of the world. I'm thinking specifically of

927
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 11: the Strait of Warmus. There the vast majority of the

928
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:56,440
Speaker 11: world's crude, or the biggest I think it's one in

929
00:48:56,480 --> 00:49:01,680
Speaker 11: every six barrels go through that waterway that Iran territorium.

930
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 1: We haven't spent a lot of time on the program

931
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:07,239
Speaker 1: talking about this potential deal with Saudi Arabia as well

932
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:08,920
Speaker 1: when all of this factors in, because there are big

933
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 1: questions about whether that is even possible now. And glad

934
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 1: to say that Bob McNally is with US Rapidan Energy

935
00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:19,360
Speaker 1: Group founder and president, former National Security Council Senior director

936
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 1: for International Energy. He spent time in the White House

937
00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:26,799
Speaker 1: and in the oil patch and with us here on Bloomberg. Bob,

938
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:28,879
Speaker 1: you're one of the first voices we wanted to hear from,

939
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:31,920
Speaker 1: and I saw you quoted over the weekend about the

940
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:36,440
Speaker 1: initial reaction here with a slightly contrarian view, because there

941
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 1: was a knee jerk and initial panic, and you've been

942
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 1: pointing to calm here as we anticipate further headlines. What

943
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:47,040
Speaker 1: do you think about what we know now and the

944
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 1: move that we've seen in crude prices, Is it justified.

945
00:49:52,480 --> 00:49:54,440
Speaker 14: Sure, Hi Hi, Joe and Kayley.

946
00:49:55,560 --> 00:50:00,960
Speaker 15: The market is appropriately discounting the risk, and it's certainly

947
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 15: gone up of as you said, Iran being implicated and

948
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:11,320
Speaker 15: the region experiencing or having the conflict expand beyond the levant,

949
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:15,880
Speaker 15: beyond just Israel in Gaza. So given Iran's heavy handed

950
00:50:15,880 --> 00:50:19,359
Speaker 15: support for Hamas, that is a real risk.

951
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:21,120
Speaker 14: So I think the premium.

952
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:26,000
Speaker 15: We've seen three dollars four dollars is appropriate. When we

953
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 15: didn't see Hezbolah join the attack over the weekend, it

954
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:34,319
Speaker 15: became clearer to us and we were more confident that

955
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 15: at least initially, this would not expand to the Middle

956
00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:43,759
Speaker 15: East and to the Gulf right because Hamas, while supported,

957
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:46,960
Speaker 15: aided funded by Iran, and there's some question about whether

958
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:51,280
Speaker 15: Iran actually directed or was operationally involved in this attack.

959
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 15: Hamas is different than Hezbolah, hes Bolan Lebanon. That's an

960
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 15: authentic Iranian proxy, one hundred and thirty thousand missiles.

961
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:01,120
Speaker 14: They take orders right from a right from Tehran.

962
00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:05,160
Speaker 15: So had we seen the northern front open up, we

963
00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:08,200
Speaker 15: would be sitting here at a much higher crude premium,

964
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 15: and Rapidan would have a higher than sort of twenty

965
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 15: percent odds that this expands imminently to the global oil

966
00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:17,319
Speaker 15: market and the global gas market too.

967
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 11: That's interesting, Bob. Of course, we're looking to see if

968
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:25,399
Speaker 11: there is any further escalation in this conflict. It could

969
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 11: be really early days here. We have to keep that

970
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:29,520
Speaker 11: in mind. But do you think the greater risk is

971
00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:32,680
Speaker 11: that we see the US not turning a blind eye

972
00:51:32,719 --> 00:51:36,279
Speaker 11: to Iranian exports more strictly enforcing those sanctions knowing that

973
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 11: the primary buyer of that crewed in the first place

974
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:42,160
Speaker 11: is China, and sanctions enforcement maybe a little hard in

975
00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 11: that aspect. Or is the greater risk this kind of

976
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 11: expansion the disruption of crude from elsewhere in the Middle

977
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 11: East being disrupted.

978
00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:55,600
Speaker 15: I think the bigger disruption risk comes from an expansion

979
00:51:55,640 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 15: of the conflict to Hesbaalah and to Iran. Look, President

980
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:03,720
Speaker 15: Biden is going to be very cautious about tightening oil

981
00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:08,880
Speaker 15: sanctions on Iran. Why Because this sort of winking and

982
00:52:09,040 --> 00:52:13,920
Speaker 15: nodding at Iran's exports to China, Venezuela and Syria was

983
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:18,480
Speaker 15: the quiet part of this deal they did that included

984
00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 15: freezing the enrichment Iran's enrichment. On the surface, it was

985
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 15: about six million dollars for six hostages, but under the surface,

986
00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 15: it was let's call it freeze for a freeze. So

987
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:32,200
Speaker 15: if President Biden starts cracking down on Iran's exports to

988
00:52:32,239 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 15: those three countries, Iran could start enriching again. In light

989
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 15: of what just happened this weekend, with tensions so high,

990
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 15: that would put us even closer to a regional conflict.

991
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:44,719
Speaker 14: So I wouldn't rule it out. I wouldn't rule it out,

992
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:45,359
Speaker 14: but I.

993
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:47,360
Speaker 15: Don't think President Biden's going to be in a hurry

994
00:52:47,719 --> 00:52:50,600
Speaker 15: to tighten sanctions on Iran's crude oil exports.

995
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:54,840
Speaker 1: Bob. We heard earlier from Kevin McCarthy, then now former

996
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:57,520
Speaker 1: Speaker of the House, who like many Republicans, was calling

997
00:52:57,520 --> 00:53:02,200
Speaker 1: out the Biden administration and pointing to Iran. Here's what

998
00:53:02,280 --> 00:53:03,160
Speaker 1: he had to say.

999
00:53:03,280 --> 00:53:07,239
Speaker 4: Sanctions should go on Iran's production of oil. Under the

1000
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:10,720
Speaker 4: last administration, Iran was only producing four hundred.

1001
00:53:10,719 --> 00:53:13,720
Speaker 9: Thousand barrels of oil a day. Now it's three million.

1002
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 4: They're making billions of dollars. They are wealthier, richer, and

1003
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:22,600
Speaker 4: stronger under this Biden administration, and they're using that wealth

1004
00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 4: to fund.

1005
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:28,440
Speaker 1: Terrorism, qualifying what Kaylee was just referring to We spoke

1006
00:53:28,480 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 1: with Ron Dermer today as well, Bob, the Strategic Affairs

1007
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:34,640
Speaker 1: minister in Israel. He says Iran may have known about

1008
00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:40,160
Speaker 1: these attacks. Didn't think they knew about this initially, but says, quote,

1009
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:42,879
Speaker 1: there's some evidence they might have known about it. We're

1010
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:46,640
Speaker 1: working to verify that evidence unquote. What happens if they

1011
00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:50,120
Speaker 1: do show the world evidence linking Iran to what happened

1012
00:53:50,200 --> 00:53:50,680
Speaker 1: last weekend.

1013
00:53:51,800 --> 00:53:53,160
Speaker 14: Yeah, so I saw that interview.

1014
00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:55,800
Speaker 15: It was fantastic and I raised it to my clients

1015
00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:56,720
Speaker 15: as well right away.

1016
00:53:56,760 --> 00:53:59,400
Speaker 14: Fantastic. Now that was very important.

1017
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:05,040
Speaker 15: If Iran formally accuses excuse me, If Israel formally accuses

1018
00:54:05,040 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 15: Iran of operational involvement in this attack, right, directing it,

1019
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:16,759
Speaker 15: coordinating it, knowing about it, and produces incontrovertible evidence of

1020
00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 15: that in public, I think the markets will discount a

1021
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:24,200
Speaker 15: much higher crude disruption risk, and that will set up

1022
00:54:24,200 --> 00:54:31,280
Speaker 15: an expectation that Israel will inevitably or ultimately settle accounts

1023
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:33,680
Speaker 15: with Iran as well that Iran will have to pay

1024
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:36,560
Speaker 15: for it. Now, there is the issue of sequence, though

1025
00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:38,880
Speaker 15: I don't think the Israelis would be in a hurry

1026
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:41,920
Speaker 15: to show the evidence and to take Iran. Now, I

1027
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:44,120
Speaker 15: think they want to deal with one problem at a

1028
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:47,160
Speaker 15: time if they can, And the next big thing is

1029
00:54:47,200 --> 00:54:50,440
Speaker 15: going to be the ground invasion of Gaza, and I

1030
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:54,200
Speaker 15: think for now they're trying to deter and dissuade Hezbollah

1031
00:54:54,239 --> 00:54:57,200
Speaker 15: and Iran and other actors from broadening this conflict. But

1032
00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:02,200
Speaker 15: if we see that revealed of evidence, then we all

1033
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:05,200
Speaker 15: should be raising our odds that eventually Israel will pay

1034
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 15: back Iran directly and in a way bigger than we've

1035
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:14,200
Speaker 15: seen in the past material attack on Iran in payback

1036
00:55:14,239 --> 00:55:14,520
Speaker 15: for this.

1037
00:55:17,040 --> 00:55:20,960
Speaker 11: Okay, So, Bob, in that scenario, what role would you expect,

1038
00:55:20,960 --> 00:55:24,840
Speaker 11: to say, Saudi Arabia to play. Knowing before these attacks

1039
00:55:24,880 --> 00:55:28,840
Speaker 11: there was a revived conversation about the relationship between Saudi

1040
00:55:28,840 --> 00:55:33,480
Speaker 11: Arabia and Israel, potentially steps toward normalization. Obviously these events

1041
00:55:33,480 --> 00:55:36,319
Speaker 11: could easily disrupt that. But knowing Saudi Arabia also has

1042
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:39,839
Speaker 11: been holding back severely on output, could they come in

1043
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:42,440
Speaker 11: and help the oil markets? I mean, how would you

1044
00:55:42,480 --> 00:55:44,400
Speaker 11: see the other countries in the Middle East playing a

1045
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:46,239
Speaker 11: role in this hypothetical scenario.

1046
00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:50,240
Speaker 15: Well, in the hypothetical scenario though, where there's an attack

1047
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:53,319
Speaker 15: in Iran and a conflict with Iran. The problem is

1048
00:55:53,560 --> 00:55:57,880
Speaker 15: all of the excess spare production capacity almost five million

1049
00:55:57,880 --> 00:55:58,439
Speaker 15: barrels today.

1050
00:55:58,480 --> 00:55:59,920
Speaker 14: The good news is that's quite a bit.

1051
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:02,600
Speaker 15: The bad news is it's all north of the Strait

1052
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:03,880
Speaker 15: of Hormuz or just about.

1053
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:06,319
Speaker 14: Saudi Arabia could maybe divert a couple barrels.

1054
00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:09,120
Speaker 15: To the Red Sea and UAE to Fujera, but there's

1055
00:56:09,200 --> 00:56:12,640
Speaker 15: not much there. So in a conflict scenario, the spare

1056
00:56:12,680 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 15: capacity in Saudi Arabia's ability to increase doesn't do you

1057
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:20,200
Speaker 15: much good. Secondly, let's remember Iran attacked the most vital

1058
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:24,000
Speaker 15: important oil facility on the planet, the ab cake processing

1059
00:56:24,080 --> 00:56:27,880
Speaker 15: plant Saudi Arabia seven million barrel day facility in September

1060
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:30,440
Speaker 15: of twenty nineteen. Now they did that and they didn't

1061
00:56:30,440 --> 00:56:34,520
Speaker 15: inflict lasting damage. They sort of sent a signal. But

1062
00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:37,319
Speaker 15: in a broader conflict scenario, not only the flow through

1063
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:42,520
Speaker 15: the strait, but these key facilities, processing, refining, gathering, transport,

1064
00:56:42,560 --> 00:56:45,280
Speaker 15: loading facilities, all of these would be vulnerable to permanent

1065
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:49,239
Speaker 15: damage or long term damage. So it's a pretty horrible scenario,

1066
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 15: and in that environment, Saudi Arabia's ability to increase production

1067
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:55,239
Speaker 15: doesn't really help much if all that would happen in

1068
00:56:55,680 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 15: the war zone.

1069
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:00,279
Speaker 1: Bob, it's great to have you with I'd like to

1070
00:57:00,280 --> 00:57:01,920
Speaker 1: stay in touch with you to the extent that we

1071
00:57:01,960 --> 00:57:04,719
Speaker 1: can in the coming weeks. This is obviously not just

1072
00:57:04,760 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 1: a story that will continue developing, but one that might

1073
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 1: have a real impact on oil prices, and we count

1074
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:14,880
Speaker 1: on your analysis. Bob McNally at Rapidan Energy with us

1075
00:57:14,920 --> 00:57:17,960
Speaker 1: once again on Bloomberg. Pretty fascinating stuff there, Kaylee. We're

1076
00:57:17,960 --> 00:57:21,240
Speaker 1: seeing fairly commensurate increases in WTI and Brent Brood on

1077
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:21,720
Speaker 1: this story.

1078
00:57:22,080 --> 00:57:25,760
Speaker 11: Yeah, In fact, WTI November futures just settling eighty six

1079
00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:28,400
Speaker 11: dollars and thirty eight cents of barrel, and we'll see

1080
00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:31,000
Speaker 11: if there is more upside surprise to prices as we

1081
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 11: see this conflict go on dig.

1082
00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:37,240
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Sound on podcast. Make sure

1083
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:40,120
Speaker 1: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and

1084
00:57:40,200 --> 00:57:42,760
Speaker 1: anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find

1085
00:57:42,840 --> 00:57:45,920
Speaker 1: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm

1086
00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:49,760
Speaker 1: Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.