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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Solutility and energy prices can influence

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Speaker 1: consumer inflation expectations. Those have been trending down. The adjustments

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Speaker 1: that currencies can make and only go so far to

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Speaker 1: a degree. It's is there are some game right the

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Speaker 1: transmission mechanism from what the c based doing into the

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Speaker 1: real economy, he's not working. That's the start. Contrast in

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Speaker 1: Europe to what we're seeing in the US. Bloomberg Surveillance

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Speaker 1: your link to the world of economics, finance, and investment

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning everyone, Michael mckeem, Tim Keene,

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Speaker 1: Good morning, Worldwide futures A negative twelve. They've deteriorated over

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Speaker 1: the last two hours. A bit of a bid here

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Speaker 1: right now, but I'm really stretching to find some calm.

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Speaker 1: What a day yesterday. A little bit more of that today.

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Speaker 1: We'll discuss that through our next two hours of Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Speaker 1: I'm watching German yields. They really haven't moved on to.

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Speaker 1: That's important. If German yields were to break down the

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Speaker 1: greater negative yields, that would be something we're not there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah to Bloomberg Surveillance this morning, bunch of my cone

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Speaker 1: Resnick accounting, tax advisory, regulatory changes can impact your business.

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Speaker 1: See how the experts at Cone resident can help you

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Speaker 1: navigate these complexities. Find out more at cone Resnik dot com.

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Speaker 1: C O h N R E Z and I c

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Speaker 1: K and as I spelled Cone Residuct. Michael McKee, I

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Speaker 1: can spell c L C L I N t O

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Speaker 1: N and even I can spell t r U m P.

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Speaker 1: We had an election last night, microL primary. Yes, the

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Speaker 1: it well, it's it's almost impossible to get it out.

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Speaker 1: Bumpicans look like they have nominated Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton

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Speaker 1: has such a big Delegately, Bernie Sanders won the Indiana

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Speaker 1: primary yesterday, but it doesn't get enough delegates to really

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Speaker 1: change the uh narrative. Chris Kruger joined some goog and

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Speaker 1: I'm out of Vermont. Also King's College, London. Chris, good morning,

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Speaker 1: Good morning. What was any surprise yesterday or did everybody

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Speaker 1: get it right? Um? Well, I know, I think that

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Speaker 1: the big surprise was that Ted Cruz dropped out of

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Speaker 1: the race. Also that Bernie Sanders, um, you know, one

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Speaker 1: his nineteen contest. This is his second big win in

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Speaker 1: a rust belt state behind his upset win in Michigan. Uh,

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Speaker 1: and it gives Sanders a huge fundraising boost, and it

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Speaker 1: means that the Democratic race is going to go all

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Speaker 1: the way to June seven. If he's doing well, if

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Speaker 1: he's doing so well, why is he so far behind

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Speaker 1: in the delicate derby. Well, this is a a major um,

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Speaker 1: a major issue that Sanders is is making with Democrats,

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Speaker 1: and that is that it is a it is a

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Speaker 1: rigged system. It's these super delegates that account for the

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Speaker 1: total um. And the troubling thing for Clinton is that

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Speaker 1: Sanders is sort of attacking or on the left for

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Speaker 1: this sort of rig system with super delegates, which kind

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Speaker 1: of dovetails with what Donald Trump's latest line of attack

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Speaker 1: Crooked Hillary someone you can't you know trust, etcetera. So

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Speaker 1: you've got this issue from right and left, with Hillary

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Speaker 1: sort of taking incoming fire from from both sides. We uh,

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Speaker 1: we opined, But you get paid to make predictions. Um,

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Speaker 1: if a company comes to you and says, today, who's

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Speaker 1: going to be president? What are you telling them? I

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Speaker 1: think people are continue to discount Donald Trump. I think

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Speaker 1: the general election can be summarized through through a binary prism,

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Speaker 1: and that is that if the general election is a

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Speaker 1: referendum on Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton is gonna win. But

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Speaker 1: if it's a referendum on Hillary Clinton, donald Trump is

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Speaker 1: gonna win. And it's it's a long way to go.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be a race to the very bottom

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Speaker 1: with two of the most polarizing political candidates in American history.

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Speaker 1: How does Hillary campaign differently than the Publicans who lost

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Speaker 1: to Donald Trump? Well, I mean, I think one of

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Speaker 1: one of the big lessons, uh, you know, with with

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Speaker 1: the Republican Party is that no one really laid a

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Speaker 1: finger on Trump until you know, he had built up

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Speaker 1: this this head esteem. Um. The thing that's been remarkable though,

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Speaker 1: isn't so much the attacks that people have made on Trump.

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Speaker 1: It's that Trump has said some of the most you know, unbelievable,

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Speaker 1: unbelievably polarizing statement and it's just this it's this sort

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Speaker 1: of I don't know if it's tafflon or he I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's just it's it's it's really unprecedented. There's this X

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Speaker 1: factor with Trump that he's just not a not a

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Speaker 1: normal candidate. Before we turn to the economics, the moment

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Speaker 1: one more of the political angle. You absolutely nail there.

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Speaker 1: The things that he said, there seems to be a

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Speaker 1: belief interviewed the interview that we have that people have

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Speaker 1: pol clitics is those those statements good or bad? Do

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Speaker 1: you buy that idea? The memories fade? I think we're

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Speaker 1: we're what this election is, you know, showing us a

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Speaker 1: little bit? Yeah, I mean, look, it's it's a thirty

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Speaker 1: second SoundBite culture. Trump excels in that format, whether it's

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Speaker 1: Twitter or Instagram, etcetera. I mean, no one else can

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Speaker 1: touch him on social media, and no one else quite

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Speaker 1: frankly alive is in my estimation, a better communicator than Trump,

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Speaker 1: in that he has an ability to dominate a twenty

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Speaker 1: four hour news cycle unlike anyone else on the planet.

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Speaker 1: The real question now, I guess, is whether Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: leads a Republican party or leads uh a Trump Party.

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Speaker 1: The New York Times speak trunt page story on how

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Speaker 1: many prominent Republicans have tweeted out or announced that they

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Speaker 1: are now going to either support Hillary or or sit

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Speaker 1: the election out. Uh. What kind of trouble is the party?

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Speaker 1: In which means what kind of trouble are the are

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Speaker 1: the down valot Republicans members of the House and Senate.

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Speaker 1: In look, I mean, I think since January, when when

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Speaker 1: Trump really, you know, began emerging. I mean, most Republicans

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Speaker 1: have been cycling through the five stages of grief, right, denial, anger, depression, bargaining,

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Speaker 1: and acceptance. I think you're you're you're starting to see

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Speaker 1: whether it's it's someone like John Bayner saying he would

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Speaker 1: vote for Trump, or Rent previously r n T chairman

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Speaker 1: saying he is he's now the nominee and we will

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Speaker 1: do everything we can to to stop to stop Hillary

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Speaker 1: Clinton from becoming the nominee. So you're you're with with

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Speaker 1: crews getting out last night. I don't think it can

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Speaker 1: be understated how big a deal that was, because now

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Speaker 1: Trump can start consolidating, start moving Republicans through those stages

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Speaker 1: of grief faster, and you on the Democratic side, you're

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Speaker 1: going to continue to have this Sanders Clinton race that

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Speaker 1: is probably going to continue to get nasty. Keep Republicans

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Speaker 1: with him, well, he has to if he's gonna win. Um,

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Speaker 1: look at that. The end of the day, it's it's

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Speaker 1: it's Trump Clinton, right, It's it's the the the You

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Speaker 1: know this, I really think this election is going to

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Speaker 1: be who do you who do you hate? Who do

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Speaker 1: you hate? Less Um, I think you're you're you'll start

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Speaker 1: seeing Republicans coming coming back in. But you know, I

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Speaker 1: think that is the best. The first thing to watch

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Speaker 1: for will be who is who does Trump picked for

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Speaker 1: his vice president? And does that appeal due to Republicans

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Speaker 1: because it's also Look, it's not just it's not just

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Speaker 1: the White House, it's also the Supreme Court. It's also

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Speaker 1: the House, and involved in the Senate, and and and

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Speaker 1: Chris Krueger. As you know, this has happened a few

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Speaker 1: times in American history and before. Even if the debates

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Speaker 1: and the ferocity of it right now seems to be

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Speaker 1: quite something. Does the economy play into this at all?

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Speaker 1: Do you buy the idea that, let's say we get

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Speaker 1: some two percent g d P, which I'm saying is

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Speaker 1: not a consensus called but if we get a type

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Speaker 1: of economy, does anybody matter? Or is this the one

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Speaker 1: time where the economy is not what the election is about? Oh? No,

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Speaker 1: I think it'll be hugely consequential because Clinton is sort

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Speaker 1: of running for Obama's third term, and there's the I mean,

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Speaker 1: the heat. What you're seeing with both Trump and Sanders

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Speaker 1: voters in particular, is in commonality, is this uh you know,

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Speaker 1: fear that they've been left behind, this economic disenfranchisement, etcetera. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, as the economy goes, I suspect there will

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Speaker 1: be a pretty strong correlation with with the economy and

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Speaker 1: with Hillary Clinton's bowl numbers. The interesting thing is is, uh,

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Speaker 1: if you look at what Trump has proposed, he would

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Speaker 1: make everybody far worse off. His economic plans make no sense.

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Speaker 1: So can can that level of detail penetrat or is

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Speaker 1: this all going to be sound bites and insults? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I you know, back back to Tom's earlier

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Speaker 1: uh you know point. I mean, I think this is

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Speaker 1: this is a thirty second sound bite election. Um, and

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Speaker 1: it's I mean, it's you know, juvenile schoolyard taunts. I

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Speaker 1: think are going to eclipse. Yeah, three tax reform proposals.

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Speaker 1: Let's come back Chris Krueger with us, with good and him,

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Speaker 1: And of course we'll have to look at the Senate.

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Speaker 1: In the House, Gregg Valier just incendiary yesterday about the

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Speaker 1: fragility obviously of a Senate. I think that's out there.

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Speaker 1: But even Gregg Valier looks at house analysis is being

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Speaker 1: uh timely, uh Mike. December twenty nine, two thousand and fifteen,

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Speaker 1: the American philosopher Douglas cass quote display his rude and

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Speaker 1: crude campaign Donald Trump ahead of all of his Republican competitors.

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Speaker 1: He takes on Hillary Clinton, and their first televised debate

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Speaker 1: attracts nearly one dred million viewers. Given the world's chaotic landscape,

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Speaker 1: the November election will be much closer than expected, but

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Speaker 1: Clinton beats tru two that from one d cass up

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Speaker 1: to his his prediction on on electoral votes. Yeah, well,

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Speaker 1: we'll see, but there it is. And there's been some

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Speaker 1: people Marty Schenker of Bloomberg News again like Mr cass

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Speaker 1: Way out front on respecting cred for the outlook that

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Speaker 1: Mr Trump maybe would garner majorities in selected elections a few.

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Speaker 1: But I think there's a lot of fear among analysts.

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Speaker 1: They were wrong before, they don't want to be wrong again. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I I don't disagree that. I think that this morning

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Speaker 1: is important as we see Senator Cruz step aside. Michael

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Speaker 1: bar will have much more of that in New York

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Speaker 1: and your news around the world as well. Futures negative eleven,

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Speaker 1: town futures negative eighty, the yield one zero percent. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's check in with Michael Barr now and get the

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Speaker 1: latest world and national headlines. Michael, Mike time, Thank you

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Speaker 1: very much. And as you mentioned, it looks like a

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump Pillory Clinton showdown in the general presidential election

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Speaker 1: in November. Trump won the Indiana Republican primary. Yesterday, his

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Speaker 1: main opponent, Ted Cruz quit the race, giving Trump a

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Speaker 1: clear path. Bernie Sanders beat Clinton in the Democratic primary,

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Speaker 1: but she has a large, delicate lead. The White House

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Speaker 1: says President Barack Obama's visit to Flint, Michigan today is

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Speaker 1: focused not on accountability, but support and making sure the

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Speaker 1: response to the lead contaminated water crisis continues. The President

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Speaker 1: plans to meet with Michigan Governor Rick Snyder, get a

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Speaker 1: briefing on the federal response here from residents, and speak

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Speaker 1: at a local high school. Global News twenty four hours

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Speaker 1: a day, powered by our twenty four hundred journalists more

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Speaker 1: than a hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Barr, Tom I canna, thanks so much. The

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Speaker 1: euro one fifteen exactly one point one five zero zero churning.

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Speaker 1: As I said a number of times this morning, Flighty

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Speaker 1: is he was that a magitive or never Mike Flighty flighting,

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Speaker 1: It's Flighty market Bloomberg Surveillance. Well, it's going to be

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Speaker 1: an interesting presidential campaign. But what does the campaign and

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Speaker 1: what do the nominees mean down the ballot for House

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Speaker 1: and Senate. We'll talk with Chris Krueger of Guggenheim here

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Speaker 1: on surveillance, Floobal Business News twenty four hours a day,

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Speaker 1: if Bloomberg dot Com, the Radio plus Mobile Act and

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Speaker 1: on your radio. This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and

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Speaker 1: I'm Karen Moscow. Let's go to the first Word Breaking

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Speaker 1: news desk for today's morning call. Here's Bill Maloney. Good morning, Bill,

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Speaker 1: Good morning Karen. Futures have pared some of their losses

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Speaker 1: but remain under pressure to futures currently lowered by eighty

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Speaker 1: nine points, sspes drop twelve and NAZAC futures fall by

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Speaker 1: thirty d us Tenniel falls to one point seven eight

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Speaker 1: percent after the ADP employment change data and main uarpay

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Speaker 1: markets are also lower, led by one point three percent

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Speaker 1: declines in the UK eight on the US economic frin today,

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Speaker 1: dirty trade balance and non farm Productivity and Market U

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Speaker 1: S Services p M I and at ten o'clock I

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Speaker 1: s M nine manufacturing factory orders and durable goods orders.

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Speaker 1: After the bells night, Avias revenue up three to five percent.

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Speaker 1: Cbs B and Alumina and Western Union missed some of

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Speaker 1: the earnest highlights today. Energizer raised EU EPs views, ms

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Speaker 1: A GPS was in line time Warner and Humanity and

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Speaker 1: Price Line Q two missed estimates. Shares it down ten

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Speaker 1: percent pre market until news fires are such approach motivation

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Speaker 1: on a potential by finally some of your well sheheet

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Speaker 1: upgrades and downgrades. FedEx raised over way at Barkley's and

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Speaker 1: a Darko cut to market perform at BMO, Rubhub cut

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Speaker 1: the equate at Morgan Stanley National Oil, well cut to

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Speaker 1: sell at sock Gen and at u B s KB

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Speaker 1: Home cut the cell and BESA homes cut to neutral.

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Speaker 1: Live from the first breaking news desk on bo Maloney Care.

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Speaker 1: All right, thanks Bill, And just to give you more

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Speaker 1: on those ADP numbers, the ADP rees to institute said

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Speaker 1: US firms added one hundred fifty six thousand jobs in April,

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Speaker 1: and economists we're looking for a report of one thousand

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Speaker 1: to hear live breaking news over your Bloomberg type squawk

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Speaker 1: and go on your terminal. Let's sku you a w

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Speaker 1: K go. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike Karen,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much of Bloomberg surveillance this morning, brotch by Investo.

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Speaker 1: slash high conviction. Well, Mike moved the market. I mean,

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Speaker 1: at least you can say his yields with a vengeance

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Speaker 1: come in one point seven seven five to on the

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Speaker 1: tenure two basis point. Moved there about two basis points

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Speaker 1: for the five year at one point to three. The issue,

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Speaker 1: of course, is always is what does a DP really

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Speaker 1: tell you about what's happening? On Friday? With the jobs

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Speaker 1: report marksany of Moody's who puts together this report for

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Speaker 1: a DP says the job market appears to have stumbled

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Speaker 1: in April, with weakness across most sectors. Whether we see

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Speaker 1: that in the month is it gonna be interesting because

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Speaker 1: this was a month when we saw the lowest jobless

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Speaker 1: claims numbers since the Nixon administration. Yeah, and the the

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Speaker 1: lethargy or stability within the job economy, non firm payrolls

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Speaker 1: three month moving average two hundred nine thousand, six months

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Speaker 1: moving average two hundred forty six thousand, and right on

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Speaker 1: top of it, the one year moving average two hundred

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Speaker 1: thirty four thousand. It has been almost trendlous for three years.

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Speaker 1: The biggest decline in the ADP report manufacturing down thirteen

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Speaker 1: thousand jobs. We did see a slight drop in the

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Speaker 1: I s M in Paeril's index, but not one that

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Speaker 1: would suggest that big of a decline. So it will

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Speaker 1: be interesting to see. And of course, the one and

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Speaker 1: fifty six thousand jobs that ADP is talking about our

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Speaker 1: private sector jobs does not include government, so you've got

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Speaker 1: a factor in government. When you're making your forecast for Friday,

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Speaker 1: do you think anyone in Washington cares? Do you think

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Speaker 1: Secretary Clinton cares or Mr Trump cares? Like here in

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Speaker 1: the margin, I mean, none of them. Well, well we'll

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Speaker 1: ask Kris Krueger about it. None of them are going

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Speaker 1: to understand this well enough to to uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: make a fine distinction. I can imagine that the number

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Speaker 1: is weaker than the headline. So Chris Krueger of of

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Speaker 1: Guggenheim Securities. The people at your shop are going to

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Speaker 1: understand that hundred fifty six thousand is still enough to

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Speaker 1: keep the unemployment rate falling. It's not a bad number.

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Speaker 1: And of course a DP doesn't tell us a lot

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Speaker 1: about what's going to happen on Friday. But if I'm

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, I'm sending out a press release that says

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Speaker 1: the economy is collapsing. Right, I mean this is you know,

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Speaker 1: we uh if if you want to make America great again,

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Speaker 1: vote vote for me and we'll have you know, a

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Speaker 1: million jobs created every every month. Well, the the issue

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Speaker 1: is than you know, how do you sell I guess

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Speaker 1: it's it. Trump has been able to do it sell

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Speaker 1: the idea that the economy is in terrible shape. Um. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean he he has. I mean he um uh

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Speaker 1: he you know through through you know, the social media

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Speaker 1: um avenues that he just that he just dominates he

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Speaker 1: you know, it's um, I think every everyone knows what

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Speaker 1: his messages, you know, for good or bad. It's you know,

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Speaker 1: it's the hat, it's the branding, it's everything versus you know,

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Speaker 1: Clinton's message, which you know I'm not you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure what it is. It's sort of this kind

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Speaker 1: of muddled you know, I'm not Trump and this is

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Speaker 1: Obama and let's let's go for Obama's third term. And

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Speaker 1: that you know, it's when you when you have someone

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Speaker 1: with a very clear message versus someone who you know

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Speaker 1: is a little more wishy washy, that's that's not a

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Speaker 1: great place to be. Although the general election isn't for

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Speaker 1: six months, go ahead, we want to get to the

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Speaker 1: question that Tom and I were posing before the break,

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Speaker 1: because we only have a few minutes left here. What

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Speaker 1: happens now for the in the in the races for

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Speaker 1: the Senate, in the House. Well, I mean, I think

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Speaker 1: the the one you know, one thing I think that

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Speaker 1: we we have, you know, a lot of conviction on

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Speaker 1: Guggenheim securities, is that whoever wins the White House is

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Speaker 1: also going to win the Senate. And that's because you

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Speaker 1: have this incredible uh correlation between the key battleground states

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Speaker 1: and the electoral College along with the key Senate races

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Speaker 1: that will determine control. You have very few ticket splitters now,

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Speaker 1: so you know, whoever, whatever president, you know, whoever wins

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Speaker 1: Ohio is going to get that Senate race. Right now,

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Speaker 1: the Senate is fifty six Republican controlled. The map is

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Speaker 1: gruesome for Republicans. They're defending twenty four seats to the

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Speaker 1: Democrats uh ten seats, none of which are terribly competitive.

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Speaker 1: And of those twenty four, the Republicans have seven uh

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Speaker 1: seven senators that are running for reelect and states Obama

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Speaker 1: carried twice. The employment number that we have a hundred

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Speaker 1: forty three million, almost a hundred forty four million Americans employed.

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Speaker 1: The number is way way up through the eight years

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Speaker 1: of President Obama. The campaign before I get in all

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Speaker 1: that does it does the economy again really linked into

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Speaker 1: what we see. I think it's gonna be a huge,

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Speaker 1: huge impact. I mean, this is a big criticism from

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Speaker 1: from a lot of Democrats, is is that you know,

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Speaker 1: the president, you know, arguably the greatest campaigner of all time,

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Speaker 1: um with a with a pretty strong uh you know,

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Speaker 1: economy a good story to tell, and no one's really

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Speaker 1: telling that story, which is why you you can have

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Speaker 1: someone like like Trump sort of come in and you know,

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Speaker 1: hammer the American grading again. Now this has been great,

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much. He is with Goog and I'm

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Speaker 1: stay with Bloomberg's surveillance coming up there. With all due respect.

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