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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Merton Talks Money and News Roundup, where

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Speaker 2: we talk about the biggest moves in the markets this

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Speaker 2: week and what's driving them. I'm Join Stebick, senior editor

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Speaker 2: at Bloomberg and author of the award winning Money Distilled newsletter,

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Speaker 2: and enjoining me this week while Merton is visiting the

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Speaker 2: Mothership in New York is Marcus Ashworth. Marcus is a

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg opinion columns with deep expertise in European markets and

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Speaker 2: born markets, and he's also a regular contributor to the show.

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Speaker 2: Hi Marcus, my pressure is ever for all that I've

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Speaker 2: just been talking about your expertise in European markets and Gilks.

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Speaker 2: I thought first we could start with the rather good

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Speaker 2: priests that you wrote with Stewart. This week's Stuart Trout

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Speaker 2: on London and London house prices and what's been going

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Speaker 2: ann London.

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Speaker 1: Flats are cheap, cheap for a reason.

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Speaker 3: I actually started off this premise this to write on

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Speaker 3: a flat i'd seen in Fulham, one bed flat lease

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Speaker 3: looked in reasonable conditions, perfect little bolt hole, Pierre, a

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Speaker 3: tear start a flat.

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Speaker 1: What you want to call it.

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Speaker 3: It was on for three hundred and seventy thousand. I thought, wow,

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Speaker 3: that is a bargain in context of where Fulham normally is.

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Speaker 3: It was a reasonable road and exactly where it was for.

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Speaker 2: All of our lessoners say them twenty five Fulham is

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Speaker 2: a nace but London.

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Speaker 1: La not Chelsea. Alose people Chelsea show they actually live

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Speaker 1: in Fulham.

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Speaker 2: Yea.

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Speaker 3: So it's got football club and it's got the King's

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Speaker 3: Road and then and the Fulham Road as well, which

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Speaker 3: are the nice bits of Chelsea, but the other end

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Speaker 3: of it. Nonetheless, it was a first time I've seen

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Speaker 3: I would say, an apartment in in London which in

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Speaker 3: the nicest area of London, which is I would say, wow,

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Speaker 3: that is a reasonable price. As it happens, as a

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Speaker 3: bit misdeed, it was up up for this thing called

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Speaker 3: modern method of auction. I said, she had to book

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Speaker 3: a big deposit down which you may not get back

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Speaker 3: to bid on it. So it's a little bit of

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Speaker 3: a trap that one. So we decided not to lead

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Speaker 3: on that. I digress. Anyways, as we as we went

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Speaker 3: into the sort of look at is London actually cheap papers?

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Speaker 3: It's come down so much over twenty percent in the

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Speaker 3: last few years, really since twenty fourteen fifteen, when that

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Speaker 3: sort of London grad Russian sort of influx, you know,

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Speaker 3: turned and finally stopped pushing London prices up ridiculously, you know,

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Speaker 3: post the global financial crisis, which I can never really understand.

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Speaker 3: But then all of a sudden it hasn't really performed

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Speaker 3: very well indeed, and recently it's got a lot worse

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Speaker 3: than non don flight. A lot of other reasons why

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Speaker 3: I think landlords have been selling because of where as

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Speaker 3: we go in the article, lots of pressures on that

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Speaker 3: sort of side of the investment market. So is London

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Speaker 3: cheap Well, there's a lot of other reasons behind it,

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Speaker 3: which you can read the article regards of cladding and lease

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Speaker 3: hold problems, also the coming up Printers' Rights Act, which

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Speaker 3: is going to make it much harder again for landlords.

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Speaker 3: But the basic point here is that London is much

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Speaker 3: more affordable than it was, but it's still relatively expensive

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Speaker 3: to the rest of the country because if you go

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Speaker 3: back to that twenty fourteen fifteen period I mentioned it

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Speaker 3: with London was the most expensive ever anything in the

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Speaker 3: UK market, and it's outperformans the rest of the UK,

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Speaker 3: and it had never been at such an extreme, So

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Speaker 3: it's just correcting back from where it got overpriced. And

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Speaker 3: I think it's probably a little bit more to go

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Speaker 3: in London. But if you got a long time horizon,

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Speaker 3: I think you know there is potential into bias market

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Speaker 3: you could probably pick up a relative bargain if you

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Speaker 3: can one afford and not looking to make an instant

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Speaker 3: gain and whatever. So yeah, in that sense, there's there's

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Speaker 3: some promise there. But the reason why London is unperformed

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Speaker 3: is there's as we go in quite some detail in

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Speaker 3: the article, there are very good reasons why apartments, particularly

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Speaker 3: in London. And once that really caught me from the

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Speaker 3: Hampton survey is that one in seven people selling a

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Speaker 3: flat in London at the moment are doing it at

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Speaker 3: a loss.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's a norminal loss loss.

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Speaker 1: Let alone.

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Speaker 3: You know, you actually look at prices since the start

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Speaker 3: of the century in inflation terms, you know, UK property

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Speaker 3: hasn't really gone anywhere. It's not actually quite the success story.

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Speaker 3: Everyone thinks, put money in property and you can't go wrong.

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Speaker 3: Buy in London, a global city. The other thing which

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Speaker 3: didn't make the edit was the UBS Property Bubble index

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Speaker 3: they have for city major cities around the world. London

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Speaker 3: has now dropped sixteenth. The top is Miami, Tokyo Zerich

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Speaker 3: as mean the most expensive potential bubble isious but London

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Speaker 3: is now in the low risk category, down from what

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Speaker 3: was previously in high and it's number sixteenth out of

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Speaker 3: you know, maybe twenty twenty five global cities should be

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Speaker 3: so well to the city, so it's in international terms

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Speaker 3: is looking good value. I just think on the ground

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Speaker 3: buying in London at the moment there's comes with a

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Speaker 3: lot of problems and I think until you see the

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Speaker 3: effect of the Renters Right Act bill coming through in

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Speaker 3: practice in May that maybe towards the end of the year,

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Speaker 3: then it might be worth considering. But definitely take your time.

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Speaker 2: Would you review death whatever so slightly if you're to

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Speaker 2: be a fostering bio as a home or in a

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Speaker 2: duela rather than aligned lot.

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Speaker 3: Even more it's the first time by as I said,

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Speaker 3: you really need to do all your research, particularly on

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Speaker 3: anything which is in the tower block or in some

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Speaker 3: form of high rise building or might have clouding issues,

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Speaker 3: because what we found increasingly is that a lot of

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Speaker 3: valuers won't value it. A lot of insurers well insured,

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Speaker 3: and a lot of lenders won't lend against particularly sold properties.

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Speaker 3: And also we've found quite a considerable effect on very

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Speaker 3: high and increasingly increasing where above inflation service charges. So

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Speaker 3: there are a lot of things. But having said that,

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Speaker 3: if you in this particular far I was talking about,

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Speaker 3: but initially was in a terraced house. It was the

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Speaker 3: ground floor sort of built that way of a tear.

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Speaker 3: Otherwise terraced house that has less issues day sorts of things.

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Speaker 3: Maybe yeah, in the right places, but take time. Definitely

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Speaker 3: no rush, don't need to worry about it. But a

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Speaker 3: mortgage rates coming away as well, So this keeps starting

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Speaker 3: starting a lookout, but take time.

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Speaker 2: And don't forget the man talks money.

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Speaker 1: Golden rule.

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Speaker 2: Don't touch lease hold by a ten foot bastball. You

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Speaker 2: can find more about that one in the previous discussion,

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Speaker 2: or on house places you can if you go to

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Speaker 2: whatever you get your podcasts and look for their CDs

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Speaker 2: on buying homes, you'll find lots to talk about there.

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Speaker 2: I mean, one thing I did want to ask you

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Speaker 2: was obviously so London flats, yeah, down about twenty percent

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Speaker 2: London houses krying our flat ish the rest of the

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Speaker 2: country trend is a.

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Speaker 3: Trend nationally, and detached houses are doing better than terrorist houses, terrests,

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Speaker 3: hows are doing better than flats. It's just the bigger

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Speaker 3: you are, you know, that's the post pandemic sort of

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Speaker 3: rushed the country type effect still sort of filtering through

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Speaker 3: or have filtered through, and London in particular has done

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Speaker 3: very bad. At least hold us again. We got a

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Speaker 3: lot of details why at least holds of being problems

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Speaker 3: in our article grammarents onwards your name as old rafter,

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Speaker 3: different different issues, but you know that's it's it's the

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Speaker 3: effect which you can avoid. Have to buy an apartment

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Speaker 3: in in a tablot. You can buy elsewhere. But the

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Speaker 3: point is that you know no doubt about it. At

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Speaker 3: the moment, apartments or do we say super urban dwellings

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Speaker 3: have been underperforming and London is more exaggerate than anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it's there's an interesting subject, so yeah, look at,

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Speaker 2: look at because maybe at some point on maybe your

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Speaker 2: opportunity time invite to their speaks news. Obviously, the most

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Speaker 2: exciting area has been the commodities plcious males and oil

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Speaker 2: as well oil, which is commonly cheap or has been

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Speaker 2: for a long time. So what do you think is

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Speaker 2: driven all that well?

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Speaker 3: When obvious the risk of the of the closing of

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Speaker 3: sus Canal and the Straits of Hor moves, and what

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Speaker 3: whether Iran fights back blows up Iraqi oil infrastructure, and

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Speaker 3: you know other other areas around blocking ship and some

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Speaker 3: se Saudi and the UE and and and Qatar, et cetera.

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Speaker 3: So at the moment, I don't think that's that likely.

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Speaker 1: And I think.

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Speaker 3: Oil's had a bit of a recovery because it's been

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Speaker 3: so over sold and so everyone thinks it's going down

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Speaker 3: and clearing my eye, I've read it about myself, but

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Speaker 3: I mean the point is that if when markets don't

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Speaker 3: go down and everyone's expecting to go down, the only

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Speaker 3: other way they're going to do is reverse sharply and

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Speaker 3: have a short squeeze. And I think that's what's happening

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Speaker 3: in oil at the moment. So I don't think oil

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Speaker 3: will go much higher than it is now unless there

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Speaker 3: is a proper geopolitical event, which is you know, not solvable.

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Speaker 3: But I think Trump at the moment it looks like

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Speaker 3: he's watching waiting. If things were to change dramatically, and

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Speaker 3: it will and looked like lasting. Then maybe oil can

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Speaker 3: go higher, but I don't think it will last very long.

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Speaker 3: And I think well D.

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Speaker 1: Just lower most commodities.

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Speaker 3: I am more bullish on You know, we've obviously seen

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Speaker 3: silver going through to the moon and beyond thinks lap

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Speaker 3: the moon several times, you know, making gold.

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Speaker 1: Look like a laggard.

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Speaker 3: I think that's reaching a blow off top probably around here.

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Speaker 3: It's certainly not level to get in at whether or

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Speaker 3: not more trim some profits. If you have, then then fine,

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Speaker 3: be time to get back into silver and gold. But

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Speaker 3: I don't think that move has ended. It's just it's

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Speaker 3: probably a little bit two hour.

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Speaker 1: Skis on this.

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Speaker 2: Did you reader calling Cameron Crazies piece yesterday or Cameron

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Speaker 2: Kris I can't pronounce his name, but he's one of

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Speaker 2: the terminal only kind of guys. Mic He wrote a

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Speaker 2: really good piece Yester about silver, and he was essentially

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Speaker 2: looking at what happens whenever silver, whenever the gold silver

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Speaker 2: ratio changes this dramatically in such a short space at time,

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Speaker 2: and basically pretty much across the bold. A year from now,

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Speaker 2: silver is down about fifty odd percent, So I thought

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Speaker 2: that was quite interesting. He min used to put some

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Speaker 2: some numbers on what happens when you get this speed

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Speaker 2: of change with silver relative to gold, and he's generally

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Speaker 2: not particularly pretty.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I'm a bit skeptic on the oil

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Speaker 3: gold ratio silver gold ratio that I think they're one

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Speaker 3: of these things that should a guy. But now more

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Speaker 3: on that, and we put too much store on them.

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Speaker 3: You end up getting badly wrong if you're not careful. Well,

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Speaker 3: you know, silver does have industrial uses more than gold has,

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Speaker 3: and in the context of what's future technologies of those

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Speaker 3: things in increasing one and there is an obvious short supply,

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Speaker 3: and that's why it's been squeezed, you know, Nelson, Bunker Hunt,

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Speaker 3: come back, all its forgiven type stuff, you know. But

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Speaker 3: you know, beyond that, this is a speculative tool, as

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Speaker 3: is gold. I don't think there's these are fundamental investment cases.

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Speaker 3: They are just speculation. You can call it the dollar

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Speaker 3: debasement trade. You could blame the Trump you can fed independence,

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Speaker 3: whatever excuse you want to do. I don't believe in

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Speaker 3: any of them. But this is a speculative tool and

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Speaker 3: people are trading it for volatility. Please look at it

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Speaker 3: in that context. And you know, if you want to

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Speaker 3: dabble and small amount, that's up to you at your

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Speaker 3: own risk. But don't expect this to be fundamentally backed

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Speaker 3: by anything on the ground.

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Speaker 2: You know, basically arguing that gold is just physical bitcoin, well.

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Speaker 1: It has increasingly become that way.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I obviously what's happened, if you want to

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Speaker 3: put a particular instance, is when the oh fact, the

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Speaker 3: Office for FOREIG Assets Control, the US Treasurer decided to

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Speaker 3: seize Russia's external foreign exchange reserves, and that has spooked China.

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Speaker 3: Every sort of bad or semi bad or vaguely lootwarm

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Speaker 3: you know, international Central Bank or whatever it may be,

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Speaker 3: has the side of that, perhaps they might have a

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Speaker 3: little bit more gold, and it's come self perpetuating. And

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Speaker 3: now we're seeing retail and the funds coming in. You know,

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Speaker 3: they were actually net sellers for most of the last

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Speaker 3: year or two. So you know, whether China is still

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Speaker 3: buying at the moment. We never really know the truth.

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Speaker 3: But for sure, the only one thing you need to

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Speaker 3: know about gold, there's somewhere bad in the world, and

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Speaker 3: someone needs to make sure their money is safe, and

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Speaker 3: they need to get their money out of whichever country

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Speaker 3: they're in. The only real way you can guarantee it

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Speaker 3: is leaving a side bitcoin for the moment is gold

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Speaker 3: and that's why you know, gold, silver, platinum, et cetera

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Speaker 3: have their moment in the sun. And this is how

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Speaker 3: close to the sun, how icarus like they are becoming worry.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the Chogian dollar equation. So what with the

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Speaker 2: next of the commodity space, because obviously Conickel and corpor well, I.

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Speaker 3: Mean they're goinging the more fundamental reasons. So I mean,

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Speaker 3: look at the US economy is going to grow over

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Speaker 3: five percent on an analyzed basis and call a four

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Speaker 3: and looks momentum looks strong. Not that too bad a

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Speaker 3: number out of the UK this week, but compared to

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Speaker 3: the US, it's just like we literally got the handbrake

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Speaker 3: on and nail to the floor and they're roaring away again.

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Speaker 3: So in that context, there is industrial demand. You know,

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Speaker 3: China is clearly picking up a long last and the

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Speaker 3: rest of Asia is doing pretty well as well. So

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Speaker 3: I mean, look at the Japanese stock market, look at career,

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Speaker 3: all these various areas. So you know, industrial commodities and

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Speaker 3: certainly industrial metals and the various other different parts of

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Speaker 3: the even softs and various other parts of the commodity

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Speaker 3: world are set fair. I think, not saying this is

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Speaker 3: the right time to buy. I'm sure there'll be better opportunities,

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Speaker 3: but I think the trend is fairly for you know,

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Speaker 3: That's why glen Core Rio Tinto makes sense. You know,

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Speaker 3: when you start seeing M and A, you know that

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Speaker 3: the people are at seeing a Rosia future. So you know,

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Speaker 3: do you know.

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Speaker 2: Any thoughts who the commodities raising places of commodities may

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Speaker 2: affect inflation, because obviously one of the big risks this

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Speaker 2: year is that inflation is steackier or nastier or more

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Speaker 2: surprising than anyone.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not a.

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Speaker 3: Big fan of that theory, and I'm not as surprised

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Speaker 3: as someone you start seeing material out of performance in inflation.

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Speaker 3: I mean you can, you can cast suspersion on the

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Speaker 3: US data, but I'm not so sure you can quite

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Speaker 3: as much to some people are trying to that can't

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Speaker 3: see any good going out of it. But US inflation

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Speaker 3: beat UK inflation is clearly beating and will continue to beat.

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Speaker 3: Euroinflation notably weaker. So I think there's enough disinflation and

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Speaker 3: perhaps coming from China as well as it exports whatever

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Speaker 3: it wants as quickly, as cheap, as much as it can.

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Speaker 3: I think some commodity inflation can be breathed in and

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Speaker 3: not they have a material effect.

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Speaker 1: Overall, we will see.

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Speaker 3: Obviously the one to watch probably the easiest one to

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Speaker 3: look at food inflation. You're seeing that through some of

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Speaker 3: the food inflation, particularly in the UK, has actually been

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Speaker 3: driven by minimum wage rises. And that's sure, it's nothing

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Speaker 3: to do with food at all, It's just the delivery

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Speaker 3: of food. But nonetheless all these things I think are

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Speaker 3: mostly passing through. But you know, we are going to

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Speaker 3: be much more vigilant on inflation rightly, so the effects

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Speaker 3: of that blindness from central banks post the pandemic and

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Speaker 3: all the massive stemas they put in which and then

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Speaker 3: of course the effect of Ukraine on energy costs are

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Speaker 3: still with us, and that's that it hasn't quite got

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Speaker 3: out of the system yet. But I think broadly the

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Speaker 3: trend is to my mind, is down and I think

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Speaker 3: will underperform in inflation expectations, particularly in Europe and the UK.

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Speaker 3: I'm less confident in the US, but as I said,

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Speaker 3: think the strength economy there and you know, whatever the

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Speaker 3: effects of something more interesting things going on the FED,

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Speaker 3: which we'll see I'm not as apocalyptic, and some are

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Speaker 3: about sort of central bank independence and whatever that may be.

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Speaker 3: I think they dramatically are underperformed. Their right to be

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Speaker 3: independent is should be sacrificed. But they need to get

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Speaker 3: a better performance to make it worthwhile and justify their

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Speaker 3: existence and than where they are, and mandates probably need

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Speaker 3: to change.

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Speaker 2: But that's the other story. Well maybe we'll do that

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Speaker 2: an now day. But so going on from that, when

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Speaker 2: the question of U kidd giddy gilts because well this

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Speaker 2: is interesting because I think a lot of our listeners

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Speaker 2: will be if they, if they do watch the guilt market,

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Speaker 2: will be looking at it and saying it will why

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Speaker 2: our interest rates going down, or yields or in government

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Speaker 2: points going down. We spent a lot of last year and.

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Speaker 3: Awful we can say that is it guilts are the

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Speaker 3: lowest yield over year.

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Speaker 2: Less since twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's extraordable market.

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Speaker 2: I mean will be given that we spent most of

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Speaker 2: the last year. Also the little.

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Speaker 3: Awful politics earlier this week about cunning Weez a cunning

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Speaker 3: plan which he's done twice already, and this is now

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Speaker 3: the third iteration, which is reducing the overall duration of

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Speaker 3: the type of debt that the UK Treasury sells. Call

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Speaker 3: it weighted average maturity or duration. It's the time value

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Speaker 3: of what's been dead. So a thirty year bond as

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Speaker 3: opposed to ten year bond has more sort of market

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Speaker 3: impact and risked for the market to take it down. However,

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Speaker 3: on the latest plan is to start issuing many more

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Speaker 3: T bills which are at the moment one three and

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Speaker 3: six month IOUs, which you know you buy them at

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Speaker 3: say ninety eight and they mature at a hundred. You

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Speaker 3: don't get a coupon like you might do on a guilt.

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Speaker 3: There's a different tax treatment to them that's not as

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Speaker 3: favorable as it can be on particularly very low coupon guilts,

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Speaker 3: which we have mentioned before. But nonetheless this is a

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Speaker 3: bit of a backwater. It's controlled by certain big institutions

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Speaker 3: who like basically said, it's their cash flow. They buy them,

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Speaker 3: hold them, the mature they're by the next one, and

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Speaker 3: it sort of never really sees the light of day.

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Speaker 2: But with a great idea traditional pity cash ten.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's it's it's sort of a long standing

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Speaker 3: feature of the market that it's never really been up

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Speaker 3: to much and it's just I guess I said of backwater. However,

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Speaker 3: it wouldn't be great to like the US Treasury, which

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Speaker 3: issues a fifth of its debt in bill format out

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Speaker 3: they go out to two years to be fairs, so

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Speaker 3: there's one year bills and two year bills, et cetera,

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Speaker 3: and get more liquidity in the front end, which would

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Speaker 3: be good for the Hall, the bank if anyone wants

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Speaker 3: to run its its whole balance sheet down, so they

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Speaker 3: want to move out of long daily bonds into sort

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Speaker 3: of short daily repo. There's a bill market there as

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Speaker 3: well with liquidity. Won't that be good for everyone and

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Speaker 3: make it a bit more like the US, I guess.

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Speaker 3: But more importantly, it will reduced the cost of borrowing.

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Speaker 3: So a T bill yields about say three point eight percent,

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Speaker 3: whereas a longer day to guilt can yield at least

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Speaker 3: four point eight or even whatever. So this is a

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Speaker 3: wheeze the real reason behind it. And don't forget about

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Speaker 3: issues of stable coins for cryptail and all this sort

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Speaker 3: of nonsense about you know, helping out this that the other.

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Speaker 3: It will have some beneficial effects clearly for retail investors

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Speaker 3: who want to put money safely, can't get better than

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Speaker 3: the government cold quality. You know, why wouldn't you be

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Speaker 3: able to put these in your ices or put them

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Speaker 3: in your pension or what have you, or but hold

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Speaker 3: them out right, you know there will be some different

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Speaker 3: income tax on that, So there is compelling if they

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Speaker 3: really sort out and make the corporate bond market also,

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Speaker 3: they're going to change on journually of the nineteenth to

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Speaker 3: make it much more open for investors to buy new

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Speaker 3: issues or say Mark suspensers or a tesco issuing and bond.

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Speaker 3: The moment, the minimum they can buy a corporate on

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Speaker 3: is one hundred thousand, which basically excludes purchab retail investors

379
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Speaker 3: now in Marks suspenses one issue bond, one pound increment

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Speaker 3: or one thousand pound increment they can do. If you

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Speaker 3: combine that with allowing retail investors' access to take tea

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Speaker 3: bills as well, all of a sudden you have a

383
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Speaker 3: much better environment, much more competition in the banks, which

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Speaker 3: is both a good and a bad thing, and for

385
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Speaker 3: national savings investment in SNI and premium bonds, all that

386
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Speaker 3: sort of stuff. But there's enough liquidity out there, the

387
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Speaker 3: banks would definitely buy these tables on their own pension funds,

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Speaker 3: petty cash, you name it. If you start using the

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Speaker 3: repo markets, you know, hedge funds and clateral into derivatives,

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Speaker 3: margin blah blah blah. It's a good thing. The reason

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Speaker 3: why it's been done is highly cynical. She just wants

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Speaker 3: to the cost of one hundred and ten billion a

393
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Speaker 3: year that we pay in debt interest. She wants to

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Speaker 3: get that down. Sometimes cynical ployees are also have some

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Speaker 3: benefits to it. I think this is one of them.

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Speaker 3: The other reason, which by kills.

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Speaker 2: Let me just sent it off for one saying, so

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Speaker 2: basically what she's doing is reducing the long term date crash,

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Speaker 2: which is low yielding. And that's so basically there's there's

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Speaker 2: there's a far fewer ten and thirty year gilts, and

401
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,479
Speaker 2: that means that well, maybe not the same, that's right,

402
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,879
Speaker 2: And that means that the next link it's supplying the

403
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Speaker 2: mind matter.

404
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:53,480
Speaker 3: It's absolutely she's already dramatically reduced the long end supply,

405
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Speaker 3: particularly inflation link bonds, by more than two thirds actually,

406
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Speaker 3: and indeed longer dated guilts there's a lot less issuance

407
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Speaker 3: coming through, it's going in and we call the belly

408
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:04,040
Speaker 3: of the curve the sort of fire to ten year

409
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,680
Speaker 3: part where a lot of international investors and foreign central

410
00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:10,439
Speaker 3: banks by guilts happily. So by adding more liquidity in tables,

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Speaker 3: it's just further extends this trade. She says, you've done

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Speaker 3: it twice already. This will be a third time. It's

413
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Speaker 3: a consultation document, but it's clearly going to happen, so that, yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's a car shuffle trick for the average type of bond.

415
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Speaker 3: She sells too much shorter dated therefore it's cheap of

416
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Speaker 3: for her and in theory takes pressure off the long

417
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Speaker 3: end of the guilt yields fall further.

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Speaker 1: Huzzah.

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Speaker 2: What is the don't say there for any in terms

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Speaker 2: of you know, like presumably okay, some people we talking

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Speaker 2: about it all over RESK and that it means you're

422
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Speaker 2: more exposed to shot down moves and interest rates. But

423
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Speaker 2: how much of an issue is that in practice?

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Speaker 1: Do you think?

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Speaker 3: Okay, the UK has a much longer weighted average maturity

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Speaker 3: his death than almost any other country in the world

427
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Speaker 3: because we had these huge demands of are ridiculous pension

428
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Speaker 3: rules which required pension funds to buy very very long

429
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Speaker 3: dated guilts, which we happily sold them ad nauseum. And

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Speaker 3: it all working brilliantly well until yeals jumped as inflation zoomed,

431
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Speaker 3: and it all fell apart, and even the Oxen and

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00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:13,679
Speaker 3: Cambridge pension funds blew up. So we have an average

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Speaker 3: job for about say thirteen years. It was above fifteen

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Speaker 3: not so long ago. We are already reducing it heavily,

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Speaker 3: but say the US treasury has got say seven years,

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Speaker 3: Germany's got eight, so we are we've got plenty of

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Speaker 3: room to go before we are not much longer than

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Speaker 3: al Still, the risk here is as exactly as you say,

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Speaker 3: of interest rates with a jump, or we find it

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Speaker 3: harder to fund the in shorter dates. This would leave

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Speaker 3: us vulnerable. But I think there is a plenty of

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Speaker 3: room to go still there. But we didn't need to

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Speaker 3: be too extreme on this. But I think she's pushing

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Speaker 3: the envelope to be sall on whatever. So that is

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00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 3: clearly a risk. And you know, we have to be

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00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:52,199
Speaker 3: careful that we're not doing too much of one thing

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00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 3: and we're not leaving ourselves exposed whereby we haven't funded

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00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 3: the across the Yelk curve and kept liquidity importantly across

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00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 3: all parts of the your curve, so everyone can fund

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00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 3: and bear mine, you know, more liquidity. And the longer

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Speaker 3: round is better for corporates as well because they can

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00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 3: issue off back of these gild benchmarks and they can

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Speaker 3: raise money a longer dates as well. So it's a

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Speaker 3: bit of balance I think so far as a sort

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Speaker 3: of concious positive welcome to this idea with a knowing

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Speaker 3: eye of what the real reason is great.

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Speaker 2: I feel we can never be too soundy Cod here

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Speaker 2: at Merland Talks Money ex wellble thanks again for joining us,

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Speaker 2: Marcus as much appreciated, and I should we'll have you

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Speaker 2: in plenty more times in the coming weeks and months.

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Speaker 2: As far as my wire, my pleasure. Thanks for listening

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00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:40,199
Speaker 2: to this week's Merlton Talks Money debrief. If you like

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00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:42,959
Speaker 2: our show, rate review and subscriber whatever you listen to podcasts.

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Speaker 2: He keep saying questions or comments to Mering Money at

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot net. You can also follow me and Marcus

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00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 2: on x am It joined Underscore Steppeck and Marcus is

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00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 2: at Marcus Ashwath. This episode is hosted by me joined

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00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 2: Stepeck and it was produced by Moses And and Summer

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Speaker 2: Sadi