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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Ero podcast. Good morning, It's Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: the twelfth of August. I'm Stephen Caroll and London. Coming

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Speaker 2: up today. China and the United States extend their tariff

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Speaker 2: truce into early November, easing fears of an escalation between

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Speaker 2: the world's largest economies, while the Oasis comeback Tour looks

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Speaker 2: set to worsen the UK's inflation woes. Plus, as Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump appoints a conservative economists to lead the Bureau of

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Speaker 2: Labor Statistics, we dig into why US data matters so

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Speaker 2: much to the global economy. Let's start with a roundup

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Speaker 2: of our top stories. Washington and Beijing have agreed to

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Speaker 2: extend tariffs at current levels until at least the tenth

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Speaker 2: of November. The move maintains the trade status quo between

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Speaker 2: the world's two largest economies following a series of tit

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Speaker 2: for tat hikes and export restrictions on rare earth magnets

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Speaker 2: and certain time technologies. John Gong is a professor at

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Speaker 2: the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.

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Speaker 3: You look at the statistics America's share of total China's

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Speaker 3: exports and has been steadily coming down. That has come

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Speaker 3: down to a little bit of a ninety percent, which

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Speaker 3: is not not something that's sort of very significant, totally.

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Speaker 1: Indispensable to China.

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Speaker 3: So I think China is ready to respond every time

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Speaker 3: Washington slabs on high tariffs, and Washington takes precautions for.

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Speaker 1: This kind of reaction.

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Speaker 3: So I think this way in this kind of a

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Speaker 3: very dedicated equilibrium, and this is going to be a

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Speaker 3: continuing for some time.

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Speaker 2: John Gong was speaking after President Trump announced the extension

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Speaker 2: of the Truth in a Truth social post. The two

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Speaker 2: sides reached the initial ninety day pause in May, under

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Speaker 2: which the US lowered its duties on Chinese goods to

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Speaker 2: thirty percent, while Beijing reduced levies on US products to

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Speaker 2: ten percent and agreed to resume rare earth exports. The

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Speaker 2: chief economist of the conservaive of Republican think tank the

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Speaker 2: Heritage Foundation, E. J. Antony, has been named the next

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Speaker 2: head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. President Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump posted online that Anthony would ensure future data releases

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Speaker 2: are quote honest and accurate. The previous head of the

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Speaker 2: data gathering agency was fired after a week Jobs report

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Speaker 2: and was accused of manipulating the figures for political reasons.

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Speaker 2: In Brook, Senior editor Derek Wallbank says the firing has

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Speaker 2: shaken faith in the impartiality of US economic data.

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Speaker 4: This has been a period of intense media focus for BLS,

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Speaker 4: the likes of which I can out remember in my

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Speaker 4: long career of covering the United States government. This is

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Speaker 4: a pretty unusual situation, and Antoni will be under an

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Speaker 4: exorbitant amount of pressure to prove to lawmakers and to

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Speaker 4: prove to economists into market participants that the BLS.

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Speaker 1: Numbers are accurate.

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Speaker 4: They were accurate, and they will be accurate.

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Speaker 2: From Brook Senior Editor Derek Wallbank, there Jason Furman, who

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Speaker 2: chaired President Obama's count of economic advisors, criticized Trump's choice,

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Speaker 2: describing Anthony as an extreme partisan. His nomination will need

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Speaker 2: to be confirmed by the Senate. The US Treasury Secretary's

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Speaker 2: got best and says he thinks he could have made

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Speaker 2: the markets react positively to Trump's tariff announcement on Liberation Day.

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Speaker 2: In an exclusive interview for Bloomberg Business Week, the magazine

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Speaker 2: looks at how the Treasury secretary became the Trump cabinet

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Speaker 2: member that Wall Street trusts Bloomberg's James Wilcock has more.

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Speaker 5: Many traders look to Scott Besson as a moderator, someone

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Speaker 5: who reigns in the White House's impulses, but the Treasury

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Speaker 5: Secretary tells Bloomberg BusinessWeek he merely advises Donald Trump, helping

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Speaker 5: him translate his populism into economic policy. The modest approach

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Speaker 5: can't hide that Besson has been tapped to take on

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Speaker 5: some of the most difficult assignments of Trump's second term.

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Speaker 5: But despite being the favorite on Wall Street, one area

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Speaker 5: the Treasury Secretary hasn't yet managed to grip is the

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Speaker 5: US fiscal deficit, which he campaigned on getting down to

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Speaker 5: three percent, but he's now set to grow after blockbuster

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Speaker 5: tax cuts in London.

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Speaker 1: James Wilcock thee Bug.

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Speaker 2: Radio Expectations for a summit deal with Russia's Vladimir Putin

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Speaker 2: were downplayed during the latest White House press conference. The

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Speaker 2: US President cast the talks, scheduled for the fifteenth of

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Speaker 2: August in Alaska as a feel out meeting and said

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Speaker 2: he would speak to other international leaders afterwards.

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Speaker 6: I'm going to go and see the parameters. Now I

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Speaker 6: may leave and say good luck and that'll be the end.

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Speaker 6: I may say, this is not going to be settled.

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Speaker 6: I think if a warrant for me, he would not

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Speaker 6: be even talking to anybody else right now.

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Speaker 1: But I'm going to meet with him.

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Speaker 6: We're going to see what the parameters are and then

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Speaker 6: going to call up Prisident Zelinski and the European leaders.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump was speaking as Ukraine and its European allies

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Speaker 2: have been pushing for a halt to the fight and

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Speaker 2: a freezing of the current front line as a first

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Speaker 2: step before talks.

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Speaker 1: On a more enduring settlement.

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Speaker 2: Washington, DC's police department is set to be placed under

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Speaker 2: federal control, according to a White House announcement. The US

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Speaker 2: president also confirmed he would deploy eight hundred National Guard

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Speaker 2: troops to the country's capital. He says the measures are

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Speaker 2: designed to fight crime in the area. Statistics in the

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Speaker 2: US Justice Department show that violent crimes in Washington reached

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Speaker 2: a thirty year low in twenty twenty four. Reacting to

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Speaker 2: the news, DC Mary ORL. Bowser says the decision was

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Speaker 2: not completely unexpected.

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Speaker 7: We are American citizens, Our families go to war, we

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Speaker 7: pay taxes, and we uphold the responsibilities of citizenship and

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Speaker 7: while this action today is unsettingly and unprecedented, I can't

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Speaker 7: say that given some of the rhetoric of the past

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Speaker 7: that were totally surprised.

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Speaker 2: Washington, DC, Mariiel Bowser speaking there. Donald Trump has also

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Speaker 2: threatened to insert federal personnel into other cities, including New

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Speaker 2: York and Chicago, if they do not crack down on

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Speaker 2: what he's calling out of control crime and tappered growth

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Speaker 2: in the feed through of April's business tax hikes are

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Speaker 2: already on the Bank of England's worry list, but new

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Speaker 2: analysis suggests they should also be keeping an eye on

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Speaker 2: Manchester band Oasis. Spinbergs Ewan Parts has the story. It's

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Speaker 2: been one of the most hyped events of the year.

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Speaker 2: The blockbuster come back to our bioatis has been a

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Speaker 2: sellout success, but analysis by economists suggests it could leave

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Speaker 2: something of a hangover for the Bank of England, lifting

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Speaker 2: inflation by as much as four bases points. Capital Economics

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Speaker 2: flag one of the Manchester concert dates as being especially problematic,

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Speaker 2: coming just one day after an OS data collection point.

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Speaker 2: The good news is the effect is likely to be temporary,

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Speaker 2: so perhaps the advice for the Bank of England will

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Speaker 2: be don't look back in Anger in London, Amium Pots,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio, and those are your top stories on the markets.

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Speaker 2: Eurostocks fifty futures are up by four tenths of one percent.

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Speaker 2: The MSCIAS Pacific indexes half a percent, hard being driven

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Speaker 2: harder by Japanese stocks, mainly which are back open after

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Speaker 2: being closed yesterday. The Nika and Tokyo up by two

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Speaker 2: point four percent. The RBA has cut their cash target

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Speaker 2: rate cash right target by twenty.

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Speaker 1: Five bases points to three point six percent. This morning.

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Speaker 2: The Aussi dollar now two tents weeker against the US dollar.

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Speaker 2: The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is down by a tenth

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Speaker 2: of one percent, and goal prices are up four tenths

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Speaker 2: after yesterday's fall as well, and the announcement by Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump that Cold Bars will not face tariffs despite some

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Speaker 2: of the confusion around that issue in the past week.

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Speaker 2: Goals trading at three thy three hundred and fifty four

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Speaker 2: dollars a troy ounce in a moment. Will bring you

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Speaker 2: more on the US China trade truce being extended, plus

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Speaker 2: what does Donald Trump's choice to lead the American Statistics

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Speaker 2: Agency mean for US data? But not the story that

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Speaker 2: I've been reading this morning about trying to understand what

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Speaker 2: connects le Boo boos and Dubai chocolate. I know this

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Speaker 2: isn't a social media buzzword randomizer. Bloomberg's Amandamal has been

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Speaker 2: writing about some of the Internet's biggest consumer trends of

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Speaker 2: recent months, including the little fluffy monster dolls and the

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Speaker 2: pistachio and pastry cream filled chocolate, both of which have

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Speaker 2: been popularized thanks to social media. She compares them to

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Speaker 2: the crazes of the eighties and nineties think beanie babies,

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Speaker 2: and she says that it's a sign that the current

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Speaker 2: crop of trends is the first to have fully moved

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Speaker 2: past the traditional mode of cultural origination, which requires that

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Speaker 2: products of some relationship to how people live and how

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Speaker 2: they think about their real life. In the social Internet,

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Speaker 2: even if you're not liking or sharing social media posts

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Speaker 2: that feature these products, the fact that you pause in

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Speaker 2: your feed to look at them is enough to propel

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Speaker 2: them into more of other people's feeds. Thus the effect multiplies.

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Speaker 2: Thus we end up with a craze like le Boo boos.

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Speaker 2: By the way, Lafufu dolls. The fake version also a

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Speaker 2: big part of that trend as well. But what Amanda

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Speaker 2: is getting to in this piece is that the sort

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Speaker 2: of method by which things become massive crazes is essentially

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Speaker 2: how one traditionally would have marketed to children. Things being

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Speaker 2: strange or cute, or delicious looking, or outrageous or confusing

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Speaker 2: are the currency in the current world. But she says

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Speaker 2: all is not lost because at least these trends do

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Speaker 2: require people to put down their phones and leave the

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Speaker 2: house to try and participate in them as well, So

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Speaker 2: we haven't completely lost a connection to physical reality yet.

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Speaker 2: You can read the piece by Amandimal on Bloomberg dot

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Speaker 2: Com and on the terminal. We'll put a link to

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Speaker 2: it in our podcast show notes as well.

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Speaker 8: Well.

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Speaker 2: Let's bring you up to date then on the trade story,

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Speaker 2: the extension of that truth between the US and China

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Speaker 2: until November. Jenny Marsh, who leads Bloomberg's team covering China's

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Speaker 2: economy and government, joins us now for more. So, Jenny,

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Speaker 2: is this truth than a sign that progress is being

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Speaker 2: made on some of Donald Trump's complaints about the trade

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Speaker 2: relationship with China.

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Speaker 8: I think it's a positive sign for the relationship. The

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Speaker 8: talks are going well. Both sides sort of emerged from

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Speaker 8: the last round of trade talks in Sweden saying that

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Speaker 8: they plan to extend this nineth days. So it's a

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Speaker 8: sign that communications going well. However, you know, it still

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Speaker 8: leaves China as one of the last countries in the

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Speaker 8: world to actually secure a trade deal with the US.

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Speaker 8: So you know, on the one hand, it's a sign

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Speaker 8: that they continuing to talk and hash things out, but

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Speaker 8: on the other a lot remains uncertain and there's a

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Speaker 8: lot of disagreements left in the relationship that they still

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Speaker 8: need to sort of work out. Tariffs on China are

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Speaker 8: still around fifty five percent right now, so you know,

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Speaker 8: it's good in the short term, but when you look

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Speaker 8: at the bigger picture, there's still a lot here to

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Speaker 8: be sort of concerned about.

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Speaker 2: One are the positive signals that we had was out

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Speaker 2: of the chip sector yesterday, where there had been talked

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Speaker 2: that big companies like Nvidia ANDAMD would be allowed get

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Speaker 2: export licenses to be able to export chips to China

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Speaker 2: if they gave up fifteen percent of their revenue to

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Speaker 2: the US government. But we've been reporting this morning that

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Speaker 2: China's urged companies in the country to avoid using Nvidia's

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Speaker 2: H twenty processors, particularly for government related purposes.

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Speaker 1: What more can you tell us?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, it's kind of a fascinating standoff. So the Trump

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Speaker 8: administration put restrictions on the H twenty chips earlier this year. Obviously,

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Speaker 8: these chips were designed by Nvidia specifically for China to

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Speaker 8: comply with the Biden administration's chip curbs, and after the

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Speaker 8: sort of the latest round of trade talks, the US

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Speaker 8: said that releasing these chips was going to be sort

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Speaker 8: of one of their concessions. And it seems it's a

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Speaker 8: concession the Chinese did not ask for and don't want,

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Speaker 8: you know, And that is now made clear by these

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Speaker 8: letters that have gone out urging companies to sort of

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Speaker 8: think twice before they buy them. And the reason here

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Speaker 8: is kind of simple, you know. Howard Lutnik, the Commerce Secretary,

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Speaker 8: said that the US wants to get China addicted to

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Speaker 8: American technology, and China doesn't want to become an addict

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Speaker 8: of the US tech stack. It wants its own companies.

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Speaker 8: It wants Huawei to be able to develop his own tech.

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Speaker 8: And if they're able to get these low end chips,

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Speaker 8: then it takes these sort of urgency away from its

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Speaker 8: own national champions. So China is sort of saying, no,

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Speaker 8: this isn't what we want. I think also it's assigned

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Speaker 8: to the US that what they want from these trade

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Speaker 8: talks is much bigger than these sort of H twenty chips,

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Speaker 8: which are sort of fourth generation technology. They want something

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Speaker 8: much bigger for the leverage which they have over the US.

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Speaker 2: So where are the key areas that we should be

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Speaker 2: watching as those talks continue?

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Speaker 1: Over some of the sticking points?

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Speaker 8: The rules abound Export controls, I think is a fascinating

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Speaker 8: space right now because you have the Chinese pushing and

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Speaker 8: they have disadvantage with their choke hold on rare earth magnets,

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Speaker 8: which we saw earlier this year. The US economy is

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Speaker 8: desperate for it and needs and can't replace right now.

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Speaker 8: So they still have that and they're going to try

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Speaker 8: and crack open these export controls as widely as they can.

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Speaker 8: You had Trump talking last night about the Blackwell chip,

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Speaker 8: which is a much more advanced technology, and how there

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Speaker 8: could be some sort of modified version of that. So

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Speaker 8: that's definitely one area the US has widened these trade

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Speaker 8: talks away from just talking about, you know, rebalancing trade

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Speaker 8: to also including China's purchases of Russian oil, which India

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Speaker 8: obviously has paid a high price for in recent weeks.

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Speaker 8: China buys more oil from Russia than India does, so

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Speaker 8: that's another area. And Trump was posing on social media

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Speaker 8: late last night about China's soybean purchases, saying that he

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Speaker 8: hopes China can quadruple its purchases of that, which would

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Speaker 8: be a problem for Brazil, which China buys a lot

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Speaker 8: of soybean from right now. So agriculture is another big area.

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Speaker 8: Likely this is all leading up to a big Trump

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Speaker 8: She's summit in China later this year, and I feel

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Speaker 8: like we're not going to see the details of the

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Speaker 8: deal until both men get together and sort of give

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Speaker 8: it their official sign off. But I think these are

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Speaker 8: the areas they're going to be talking about in the

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Speaker 8: months before then.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Jenny marsh leading our team covering China's economy and governments,

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: Now, Donald Trump is named EJ.

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Speaker 2: Anthony, chief economist to the Conservative Heritage Foundation, to lead

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Speaker 2: the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's after the US president

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Speaker 2: fired former head of the agency following revisions to the

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Speaker 2: job's data earlier this month, remember queenting Columus Daniel Mass

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Speaker 2: joins me.

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Speaker 1: Now for more.

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Speaker 2: Daniel, First of all, what is the significance of appointing

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Speaker 2: someone like EJ. Anthony to lead the statistics Agency?

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Speaker 9: Well, the significance is his credentials in Trump world would

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Speaker 9: appear to be unimpeachable. He worked at the Heritage Foundation,

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Speaker 9: a right wing think tank that had a role in

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Speaker 9: crafting the infamous Project twenty twenty five agenda, and he

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Speaker 9: was pushed for this job by Steve Bannon. He reportedly

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Speaker 9: went on Steve Bannon's podcast after the July jobs report

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Speaker 9: were published recently and effectively made his pitch for the job.

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Speaker 9: Now that's not to say necessarily that we should look

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Speaker 9: at every number published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Speaker 9: as tainted by partisan inclinations. There is an army of

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Speaker 9: civil servants who take their roles seriously, who approach their

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Speaker 9: work with professionalism. It's going to be interesting to see

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Speaker 9: This job also requires Senate confirmation.

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Speaker 1: I might add, you've.

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Speaker 2: Been writing about how the quality of American data has

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Speaker 2: long been the envy of much of the world. Are

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Speaker 2: any of Donald Trump's criticisms of the bill as legitimate,

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Speaker 2: So I.

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Speaker 9: Published a column on this today. That column was written

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Speaker 9: before this appointment was announced. I should stress that the

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Speaker 9: BLS is an agency not without its issues. They just

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Speaker 9: not necessarily the ones that the President asserts that it has.

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Speaker 9: So before I became an opinion colus, my job was

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Speaker 9: to run Bloomberg News economic coverage, ten years of which

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Speaker 9: I spent in wash Rington, DC, paying very close attention

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Speaker 9: to those numbers that would roll at eight thirty am

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Speaker 9: Washington time. I never saw anything in that to suggest

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Speaker 9: that numbers were finessed, massaged, cast to paint the administration

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Speaker 9: of the day in positive light. It's all, but that

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Speaker 9: doesn't mean that this is a perfect place.

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Speaker 1: Normal.

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Speaker 9: Does it mean the whiff of politics is entirely absent

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Speaker 9: from the Department of Labor. In twenty twelve, an electioneer

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Speaker 9: the Department of Labor tried to greatly constrain access of

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Speaker 9: the media to the media lockups full disclosure. I testified

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Speaker 9: to Congress on that issue. An agreement was eventually reached

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Speaker 9: with the Department of Labor. Finally enough, Trump abolished those

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Speaker 9: lockups subsequently in his first term, there's also been issues

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Speaker 9: regarding correspondence of BLS economists with major Wall Street firms

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Speaker 9: about potentially sensitive aspects of the data. There's also been

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Speaker 9: a number of stories published in the New York Times

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Speaker 9: and the Wall Street Journal testifying to staffing shortages. So look,

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Speaker 9: it's not an agency you know that deserves its place,

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Speaker 9: you know, in the pantheon. But I haven't seen anything

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Speaker 9: to suggest it's politically biased, not yet, not yet.

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Speaker 2: With your global experience, though, can you put this in

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Speaker 2: the context of how respected US data as in other

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Speaker 2: parts of the world, I suppose how it compares to

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Speaker 2: other places where perhaps the same positive things. Can't be

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Speaker 2: sad about the quality of the data, So look.

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Speaker 9: For all its flaws, it is considered the gold standard,

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Speaker 9: not just within the United States but around the world.

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Speaker 9: So I've reported statistics from countries which you know, at

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Speaker 9: various points in their political and economic development. You know,

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Speaker 9: let's just say they resembled, you know, aspects of the

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Speaker 9: Bendi fruit and by that I mean banana republics. Jason

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Speaker 9: Furman talked about a banana republic after the BLS commissioner

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Speaker 9: was fired. Janet Yellon's talked about a banana republic for

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Speaker 9: the way J Powell is heavy to reduce interest rates. Look,

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Speaker 9: in Southeast Asia pre nineteen ninety seven ninety eight financial crisis,

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Speaker 9: publication of stats was completely haphazard. Yet these were the

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Speaker 9: economies we were told we had to emulate. Even in Japan,

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Speaker 9: a very sophisticated economy in many ways, should have known better.

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Speaker 9: I was horrified in early nineteen ninety nine sitting at

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Speaker 9: my desk in Tokyo getting ready for a GDP report

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Speaker 9: to find it was published almost in its entirety in

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Speaker 9: the Nick newspaper. We've got to ask the ministry about this.

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Speaker 9: We've got to get on this. Something's not right here.

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Speaker 9: So that's just the way it's done. So look, whatever

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Speaker 9: flaws the BLS has, it is light years from some

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Speaker 9: of the other places I've worked. And people talk about

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Speaker 9: banana republics, Well, you know, I've seen some practices that

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Speaker 9: might fairly qualify for that.

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Speaker 2: So is the quality and the respects for the data

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Speaker 2: in the US in question.

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Speaker 1: If we do see the bar as become perticized.

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Speaker 9: If we see the data being shaped to suit the

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Speaker 9: political gender of the administration, then yes, that's obviously a

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Speaker 9: huge cause for concern. It's worth noting that not all

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Speaker 9: of the most sensitive economic data is provided by the

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Speaker 9: Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce. Let's not

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Speaker 9: forget them. Some of the most market moving numbers are

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Speaker 9: published by the Institute for Supply Management. The ADP Jobs

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Speaker 9: Report was for a long time considered a kind of

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Speaker 9: shadow non farm payroll number, though you know, there's a

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Speaker 9: debate about how closely it merits that global pmis. Twenty

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Speaker 9: years ago, they didn't attract anything like the attention they

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Speaker 9: attract today. But at the end of the day, you

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Speaker 9: just can't get past the need for credible US economic statistics.

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Speaker 9: It's not just about forecasting global markets. The biggest securities

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Speaker 9: markets in the world and even some of the smallest

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Speaker 9: ones respond overwhelmingly to the data published by the Department

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Speaker 9: of Commerce and the Department of Labor. At eight thirty

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Speaker 9: am DC, time for all to talk about the rise

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Speaker 9: of Asia. Look at any Asian market stories on a

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Speaker 9: Monday morning, it's all about the US data released seventy

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Speaker 9: two hours earlier.

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