WEBVTT - Stan Greenberg: Presidential Pollster 0:00:05.360 --> 0:00:09.040 Hello, Brian Goldsmith. Hi, Katie Kirk. Well, I know you 0:00:09.080 --> 0:00:14.440 are very, very excited about our I can't even contain myself. Seriously, 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:18.520 we're going to be talking to Stan Greenberg. Why don't 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:22.720 you give a quick bio of stand for our listeners. Brian, Well, 0:00:22.760 --> 0:00:25.759 he's definitely in the Polster Hall of Fame, which is 0:00:25.880 --> 0:00:29.000 visited slightly less frequently than the Baseball Hall of Fame. 0:00:29.800 --> 0:00:33.400 Who that sounds like a fun saturday, you know for 0:00:33.440 --> 0:00:36.240 some of us he was. He was the top polster 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:41.440 for President Bill Clinton, Al Gore in two thousand, Tony 0:00:41.560 --> 0:00:45.920 Blair in the u K. Nelson Mandela Israeli Prime Minister 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:48.320 Edhud Barack. He's really had an amazing career, both as 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:52.599 an academic and as a political strategist, and he has 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:56.120 spent a lot of time recently talking to one time 0:00:56.160 --> 0:01:00.720 Democrats and Obama supporters who switched to back Donald Trump. 0:01:01.240 --> 0:01:06.360 Would you say he's a wise man who says only 0:01:06.560 --> 0:01:17.679 fools Russian? But Brian can't help alright, I'm getting a 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:21.919 little jealous. Actually, I think he's a fascinating guy and 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:24.640 it was fun to talk to him about everything what 0:01:24.800 --> 0:01:28.880 happened in the two thousand and sixteen election, and most importantly, 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:33.400 how people are feeling about Donald Trump these days, specifically 0:01:33.480 --> 0:01:37.160 people in Macomb County in Michigan. He really has his 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:41.080 finger on the pulse of people who are white working 0:01:41.120 --> 0:01:46.400 class voters and how they're feeling about Donald Trump. Today. 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:48.920 We're also going to hear from a voter in Chicago, 0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:52.440 a lifelong Democrat who supported Obama who switched to Donald 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:55.480 Trump last year. Find out what she thinks about how 0:01:55.520 --> 0:01:58.560 he's doing in office. And uh, we'll get to that 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:05.280 in a little bit. But first here Stan Greenberg. Stan Greenberg, 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:08.240 it is such a thrill to have you on our podcast, 0:02:08.280 --> 0:02:11.919 and I have to tell you my friend Brian Goldsmith 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:17.320 is completely gegeging out right now. Why Brian, Because if 0:02:17.360 --> 0:02:21.280 you care about politics and polling, you know Stan is 0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:23.720 a bit of an icon in those worlds. He's probably 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:27.400 the most important progressive poster ever and he has some 0:02:27.480 --> 0:02:31.120 really interesting stuff to say about the voters who supported 0:02:31.160 --> 0:02:33.640 Donald Trump. So I'm really excited about this conversation. But 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:40.519 stand before I'm with you, well, but before we talk 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:44.359 about this latest focus group that you did in Macomb County, 0:02:44.360 --> 0:02:47.000 I just wanted to ask you quickly Stan, you have 0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:51.200 a very impressive CV, I must say, for somebody who 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:53.760 is in this line of work, can you just tell 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:57.880 us briefly kind of how you got here. Well, it 0:02:57.960 --> 0:03:00.639 certainly wasn't part of any plan. And I always thought, 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:02.799 you know, I was going to be a professor. I 0:03:03.160 --> 0:03:05.920 got my PhD. I began teaching very early at you know, 0:03:06.000 --> 0:03:09.080 at Yale. You know, I was very active politically, but 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:12.799 my academic life was separate, um, you know, from my 0:03:12.960 --> 0:03:16.440 you know, political you know work. So I began studying 0:03:16.520 --> 0:03:19.720 what was happening in poor neighborhoods and working people, you know, 0:03:19.760 --> 0:03:22.720 at at an early end, at early point. And gerally 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:25.880 broke through in politics with the study you did in 0:03:27.240 --> 0:03:30.080 of the so called Reagan Democrats. I mean, some people 0:03:30.120 --> 0:03:33.000 have given you credit for inventing that term, but these 0:03:33.040 --> 0:03:36.760 were people who historically had voted for Jack Kennedy, for 0:03:36.840 --> 0:03:39.880 Lyndon Johnson, even for Jimmy Carter, and they broke for 0:03:40.040 --> 0:03:43.360 Ronald Reagan. And you were sent there to investigate why 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:45.520 and how that happened. And can you tell us a 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:49.320 little bit about what you learned then? In I was 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:52.360 while I was still teaching a Gale Um, I was 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:55.119 asked by the U a W and the Michigan Democratic 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:59.720 Party try to understand the Reagan Democrats starting in McComb County, 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:03.000 and McComb County was a one of the most democratic, 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:09.280 unionized Catholic counties that have voted overwhelmingly for John Kennedy UM, 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:13.520 but cast a very big vote for Ronald Reagan and 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:16.640 really shattered UM for the North. A lot of illusions 0:04:17.160 --> 0:04:20.640 UM about where the party stand and how they'll be 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:23.080 shaped in the future and stand in a way, was 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:34.600 this election like deja vu all over again? Yeah, I wrote, 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:38.400 I wrote. I wrote a piece after you know, you know, 0:04:38.400 --> 0:04:43.000 Obama's election in which I basically said, goodbye Macomb County, 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:47.080 you know, because we have this first African American president 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:51.719 who carried McComb County. And so if that was true, 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:53.839 it's it's obviously time to move on. Particularly if you 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:56.640 look in Oakland County, which was the affluent suburb next door, 0:04:57.600 --> 0:04:59.919 you wish it was an even much bigger majority for 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:03.000 or Democrats. And so the signal was We've done a 0:05:03.040 --> 0:05:05.080 lot to win, you know, to win these kinds of voters. 0:05:05.120 --> 0:05:07.120 But you know, but if you look at what's happening 0:05:07.120 --> 0:05:10.000 in the most affluent and best educated parts of the country. 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:12.839 Democrats are building up bigger and bigger majorities. They are 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:15.760 also becoming more diverse, you know, more you know, immigrant 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:19.600 and ethnic as well. UM in the future lies there. Well, 0:05:19.760 --> 0:05:23.880 Macomb had a you know, made its point now because 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:28.039 the margin in MacComb in two thousand and sixteen was 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:32.320 by far bigger than the statewide margin that Trump won 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:35.720 UM and part of him winning and this say is 0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:39.279 something really interesting about our politics more broadly, because you 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:43.240 have working class Macomb County, Michigan, which is historically Democratic, 0:05:43.680 --> 0:05:46.960 and that went for Trump by almost twelve points. And then, 0:05:47.080 --> 0:05:51.040 as you mentioned next story, you've got more upscale, business 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:54.839 oriented Oakland County, which is historically Republican, and that went 0:05:54.880 --> 0:05:58.120 for Hillary by eight. And so you've had almost this 0:05:58.160 --> 0:06:00.839 flip in our politics where the the kind of the 0:06:00.839 --> 0:06:04.080 auto executives are now voting Democratic and the former line 0:06:04.080 --> 0:06:08.120 workers are voting Republican. Yeah, which is why I decided 0:06:08.120 --> 0:06:10.159 to go back to Macomb and all and to listen 0:06:10.200 --> 0:06:14.360 to these voters. The I decided we can organize for 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:17.680 you know, groups with all Trump voters, all were working 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:22.320 class white Trump voters UM in an environment where they 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:25.080 would be comfortable speaking about their lives, you know, and 0:06:25.080 --> 0:06:30.040 their values and uh and you know, and try to 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:32.360 make sure they get hurt again. I know. It's very 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:34.360 clear that they have not second guess that vote. That 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:36.480 very strong, you know reasons and you know why they 0:06:36.520 --> 0:06:39.600 cast the vote for Donald Trump, you know, but they 0:06:39.600 --> 0:06:42.560 feel under assault. They trust him, you know, but they 0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:46.200 you know, they feel the country, um is so polarized 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:50.200 that the opponents have not accepted the election results. Give 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:52.440 him a chance is almost the first thing, you know, 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:54.680 out of out of their mouth. And they still think 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:57.279 we're in a period where he's trying to govern and 0:06:57.320 --> 0:06:59.360 they feel like they're under assault in their own families, 0:06:59.360 --> 0:07:01.479 in their own commun reduce their own kids. Well, let's 0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:04.360 drill down a little stand on how you conducted these 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:08.480 focus groups. You conducted four and all? Is that right? Um? 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:11.080 I did? I did? And the focus group that worked 0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:15.560 is homogeneous. It's comfortable and you know, and people feel 0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:19.280 revealing dynamics that they would not otherwise do. It's actually 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:21.640 you know, you know how I started initially when I 0:07:21.640 --> 0:07:24.200 did the Macomb focus herps because I would have only 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:28.080 union people, only men, you know, working class, uh, you know, 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:31.760 are non union and and them feeling free to talk 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:34.040 about it. And at that point that was really that 0:07:34.160 --> 0:07:36.680 was you know, Republicans had been doing focused but this 0:07:36.760 --> 0:07:39.360 was kind of new UM, and so I was kind 0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:42.400 of inventing that methodology, you know at that time. But 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:44.720 I but I almost had to like go back and 0:07:44.720 --> 0:07:47.280 say start over, you know, the you know, I listened 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:49.240 to the focus groups and other people are doing and 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:52.320 they're testing different attacks on Trump. You know what, these 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:55.080 voters really do want to be heard, and they do 0:07:55.160 --> 0:07:58.120 have reasons why they voted the way they did, and 0:07:58.200 --> 0:08:00.280 so I thought it was really important to listen to them, 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:03.280 not fight them, you know, let them, you know, express 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:05.880 their views on why UM, and then we can get 0:08:05.920 --> 0:08:07.840 to the question of, you know, how you can begin 0:08:07.880 --> 0:08:10.240 to win them back. And I'm so curious to hear 0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:14.600 your views on the differences and similarities between these Macomb 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:18.240 County voters thirty years ago and today, because thirty years 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:22.120 ago you wrote at length about how they believe Democrats 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:25.600 were serving special interests. UM. There was a heavy racial 0:08:25.640 --> 0:08:28.680 component to the way that they had felt alienated from 0:08:28.720 --> 0:08:31.640 the National Democratic Party. They felt like it was out 0:08:31.640 --> 0:08:34.440 of step with their cultural values that welfare money was 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:37.680 going to other people, not them. Were these some of 0:08:37.679 --> 0:08:42.360 the same motivations behind their support for Trump and their 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:46.240 their feelings of alienation from the establishment or was there 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:49.880 something different happening? Now? Yeah, I mean something very different. 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:52.360 First of all, what not what's not different is their 0:08:52.480 --> 0:08:55.560 hostility of the establishment, hostility to be able empower both 0:08:55.600 --> 0:08:58.760 corporate power and political power. They're very much focused on 0:08:58.800 --> 0:09:01.400 political leaders who have sold them out, you know, for 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:05.199 special interests, cut bad trade deals for America while their jobs, 0:09:05.280 --> 0:09:07.720 you know, we're lost. And so there's a commonality to 0:09:07.800 --> 0:09:10.959 the kind of political economic argument that no one is 0:09:11.040 --> 0:09:14.800 recognizing it, and you know, and fighting that race was 0:09:14.880 --> 0:09:19.360 just so central. Detroit was central. Um the black politicians, 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:21.720 you know that they talked about who were dominant in 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:25.200 in politics in Michigan. They would talk about how you know, 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:29.400 they used their power over with Michigan government in America, uh, 0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:31.480 the U. S government, you know, to make government work 0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:34.040 for them. Affirmative Action was you know, aimed at you know, 0:09:34.080 --> 0:09:37.360 at them. They paid a real prices um they believed 0:09:37.760 --> 0:09:40.480 um for you know, government, you know, policy. And so 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:44.120 race was absolutely central. So if race was central, then 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:50.199 what is central now? Stan immigration and Islam. Immigration, as 0:09:50.200 --> 0:09:52.840 you recall, was the number one issue that the first 0:09:52.880 --> 0:09:56.920 issue that Trump ran on, and I was focused on Mexicans, 0:09:57.040 --> 0:10:00.720 and but he was focused on an undocumented and you know, 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:03.959 not having control your borders, citizens, not having preference over 0:10:04.000 --> 0:10:07.520 non citizens. What he was doing, what Trump was doing 0:10:07.760 --> 0:10:09.599 and saying this was his central issue, and he was 0:10:09.640 --> 0:10:11.400 the only one willing to speak about it, both in 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:15.240 the primary and in the general. So I think part 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:18.719 of what you're saying is politics in Macomb County is 0:10:18.720 --> 0:10:21.760 still about us versus them. Them is just no longer 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:27.440 African Americans. It's it's Muslims, it's immigrants who are documented 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:31.720 or undocumented. And the Democrats need to come up with 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:34.800 a message on immigration that resonates with working class people 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:36.800 who feel like they've lost out. And I want to 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:40.040 just interject because I read an interesting column stand and 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:43.280 I think Brian, you and I discussed it that was 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:46.120 in the New York Times that said the mistake for 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:50.640 Democrats and liberal Democrats is to say all immigration is good. 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:54.400 Remember Brian, we talked about that column and that it's 0:10:54.520 --> 0:10:58.760 much more complex and for them not to say we 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:02.000 have to tackle this issue one way or another. They 0:11:02.040 --> 0:11:06.080 do that at their peril. Do you agree with that stand? Yes, 0:11:06.120 --> 0:11:09.040 I agree. I agree that Democrats have to have to 0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:13.120 have a perspective on immigration because we, in fact our 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:17.560 advocates of immigration, people are very comfortable with a system 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:22.120 of comprehensive reform that that's managed and has controls and 0:11:22.120 --> 0:11:25.320 demands responsibility that people get in the queue they learn 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:29.720 English that in that context, they are willing to support 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:33.079 immigration that increases immigration. Democrats are going to be for immigration. 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:35.439 We think it's a better country. We believe in a 0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:39.280 multicultural country. We believe in finding unity out of diversity. 0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:42.679 But as you said, stand not completely unfettered with some 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:45.920 kind of structure, some kind of responsibility, some kind of 0:11:46.120 --> 0:11:49.120 system in place. Yes, and they, I mean they people 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:53.560 are very open to reform that increases immigration, but in 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:57.320 a context where they are rules and we're and we're legal, 0:11:57.360 --> 0:12:03.000 immigrants have precedence over you know, illegal citizens over non citizens. Um. 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:06.400 And that's a normal thing to want and expect in 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:09.960 any society. But this gets to a bigger issue about 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:13.480 the difference between perception and reality, because the reality is 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:17.800 that immigration and trade two of the real bugaboos for 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:21.800 the voters you studied have been positives for this country 0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:25.320 if you look at all of the data on income 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:30.320 and jobs, but they're perceived as very negative by a 0:12:30.360 --> 0:12:34.240 lot of voters who are critical and presidential elections. And 0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:36.079 you know, one of the things that struck me about 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:39.080 the report you wrote is that you know, these voters, 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:42.280 you said, except Trump's version of the news and the facts. 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:45.560 And so you know, on the one end, you've got 0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:48.679 real news and real facts, you have fake news and 0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:55.080 fake facts, and it seems like the latter are winning out. Well, look, 0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:58.280 there is a there is a reality um that these 0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:02.920 voters that America's dealing with. I mean, we have, you know, increasingly, 0:13:03.080 --> 0:13:05.760 you know, farm population thirty seven pers in New York 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:08.600 City is far and born. I think you know, it's 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:11.040 about thirty five percent of California's you know is far 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:14.160 is farign Born. And all those numbers are growing. There's 0:13:14.200 --> 0:13:18.200 a huge growth in migration globally, one in five of 0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:22.160 migrants globally or in the United States. There is a 0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:25.680 big growth of farm population and it's change. Asian population 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:28.480 has grown dramatically as well, obviously, as well as Hispanic 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:31.240 and there is a you know, it's part of what 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:34.160 America is and if we are actually going to get 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:37.360 the most out of it and be economically competitive, we 0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:39.880 also have to manage it. And by the way, when 0:13:40.080 --> 0:13:43.160 we presented to this focus group with Coca colad you know, 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:45.840 in which they had America the Beautiful sung you know, 0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:49.360 in multiple languages, because we use that as a you know, 0:13:49.440 --> 0:14:06.240 a test for sassacious guys. Lasting gu about half kind 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:08.760 of accepted it with you know that, you know the 0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:11.600 and we're comfortable with it. You know, some I'm saying, 0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:13.439 that's the way it should be. We're gonna be unified, 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:16.360 We're you know the so you know so that Now, look, 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:18.160 there's some that aren't going to be. But there's a 0:14:18.240 --> 0:14:21.240 you know, a significant number that you know, they're living 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:25.720 in America that is amority majority. I know that. Yeah, 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:28.120 I know that ad you're referring to. And it's sort 0:14:28.160 --> 0:14:31.520 of a celebration of pluralism. And what you're saying is 0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:35.840 some of the folks you were talking to celebrated it, 0:14:35.920 --> 0:14:39.600 but plenty of them didn't and felt that this pluralism 0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:44.480 quote unquote is threatening to the country and to its values. 0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:47.920 Let's remember the countrywide, you know, about two to one 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:52.080 people believe immigrants are helpful to the country, not that 0:14:52.080 --> 0:14:55.440 they create a heavy burden on jobs and public services. 0:14:55.480 --> 0:14:58.080 And by the way, you need to cut across race 0:14:58.120 --> 0:15:00.800 on this because it's you know, lot of African American 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:03.440 groups that I do. There's you know, there's concern about 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:06.360 you know, immigration as well. Don't assume it's only white 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:08.800 working class voters, you know, who are focused on this. 0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:11.760 This has been such a tumultuous period. It seems to 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:16.680 me if you listen to the news, radio, television, you 0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:22.440 read your information online. But most accounts indicate that Donald 0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:25.880 Trump has had a very tough few weeks. Russia, wire 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:31.160 tapping his tweets, healthcare reform, alienating allies, striking deals with companies, 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:34.440 turmoil and the White House. Uh, you know, a lot 0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:41.600 of infighting, leaks, unprecedented leaks happening. But these voters, um, 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:44.760 it doesn't seem to be affecting them because there's no 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:49.480 buyer's remorse, is there. Well, look, let's let's accept that 0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:52.680 it's two months into this, even as tumultuos, as crazy 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:55.240 as this period is, you know, it's still two months 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:57.160 and they look, they think there's a civil war in 0:15:57.200 --> 0:16:00.600 the country. They think that people that are protesting, you know, 0:16:00.680 --> 0:16:03.080 in the streets, you know, or just to have not 0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:07.120 accepted the election. And so they still think that they 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:09.760 are trying to stop him from governing successfully. And they're 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:12.640 not convinced Republicans and Congress are really for him either. 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:16.080 They feel in casting their vote for Trump, they were 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:19.600 voting for huge change. It was a major slap in 0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:23.320 the face at the establishment of both parties, and they're 0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:27.440 looking for big, big, big change. They could be disillusioned, 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:31.120 you know, but not now. Certainly. When I did these groups, 0:16:31.160 --> 0:16:32.840 you know, a few weeks ago, this you know, this 0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:34.840 is still playing out in their minds. And my guess 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:36.440 is when we go out and listen to voters and 0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:39.440 again in the next couple of weeks, that will still 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:42.280 be true. You know, that they are defending the you know, 0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:46.040 their vote for Trump. So I think this will erode 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:48.760 it in time, but not now. And this goes to 0:16:48.800 --> 0:16:51.520 an interesting question stand about how they're going to judge 0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:56.120 President Trump moving forward. That is, does he actually need 0:16:56.160 --> 0:16:58.640 to deliver for them personally in order to be perceived 0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:01.440 as successful by them? You know, I actually do think 0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:03.320 it needs to deliver. I mean, I don't think they 0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:06.360 were faked into vote voting for Trump. They think he's 0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:09.080 a strong leader, they think he'll go after the establishment. 0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:12.160 But i've you know, but there's some evidence here that 0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:15.120 if in fact, the health care law you know, ends 0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:17.280 up making I mean they're I mean they're counting health 0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:20.879 their premiums, they're deductibles to the penny, and they go 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:23.760 around the room. I mean, they know what their healthcare costs, 0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:26.440 what their insurance cost they they're they're not going to 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:29.399 be fooled by health care plan you know that raises 0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:32.520 their deductibles. You know, they think he's gonna make health care, 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:37.480 their insurance both better and cheaper and more affordable. And 0:17:37.640 --> 0:17:40.119 if that doesn't happen, Stan, I thought it was interesting 0:17:40.240 --> 0:17:45.000 that your reports said they would blame Congress, not Donald Trump. Well, 0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:47.600 they blame Congress if if nothing happens, I think if 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:49.560 you know the you know, I think there, yes, I 0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:51.600 think the reason to think that they will blame Congress 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:53.879 because they you know, they we put pictures of Ryan 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:57.000 and McConnell there for them to look at it, and 0:17:57.000 --> 0:17:59.520 they're really quite hostile to them, and they know they 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:02.639 you know, that the establishment didn't support him, and so 0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:04.919 I think they have a ready interpretation for stuff not 0:18:04.960 --> 0:18:07.120 getting done. But I don't think that's the same thing 0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:11.600 as if they actually passed this Ryan bill in the House. 0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:14.959 Once you've passed that and he's fought for it, I 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:17.320 think maybe I think he owns the specifics of it 0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:19.760 in very different ways. Obviously, if it were to be enacted. 0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:23.679 If in fact, the healthcare replacement is what Donald Trump 0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:28.000 has supported and ultimately it hurts those voters rather than 0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:30.520 helps them, do you think they'll have a change of 0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:36.240 heart about him specifically? Yes, I do, And I keep 0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:37.960 in mind, these are if you look at the voters 0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:41.320 who came out for you know, Trump, they are about 0:18:41.359 --> 0:18:44.040 half of them are you know, we're ad voted for Obama, 0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:46.280 but about half of them hadn't voted in the in 0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:49.560 the twelve presidential election. So he brought out people that 0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:51.679 were new voters. Not a new registrants, but you know, 0:18:51.720 --> 0:18:53.480 but a lot of new voters. You know that he 0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:56.480 really got their attention, you know, particularly in the rust 0:18:56.520 --> 0:18:59.960 belt where he promised him change on trade and immigrate 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:03.600 and other things and and and repealing and replacing the 0:19:04.240 --> 0:19:08.359 Affordable care at I think that, you know, they're more 0:19:08.400 --> 0:19:11.320 likely to not vote than and certainly in the off year. 0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:14.880 You know, it's gonna be I think challenging for Republicans 0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:18.520 to get these voters to come vote, to support the 0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:21.600 Republican members of Congress, you know, to make sure they 0:19:21.640 --> 0:19:25.199 can stay there, you know, doing Trump's agenda, because they 0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:27.920 don't think they're with him on his agenda. They don't 0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:29.520 like them, they don't they view them as part of 0:19:29.520 --> 0:19:32.199 the establishment who fought you know, fought him so so 0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:34.760 I think the first effect, you know, is to pullback 0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:37.720 from the Republicans in Congress, which hurts in the midterms. 0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:41.240 The second effect is just to disengage, you know, because 0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:43.080 they were you know, when they began to see the 0:19:43.119 --> 0:19:46.119 negatives that we were testing, you could you know, I 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:50.040 felt almost I felt badly having presented them because some 0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:53.000 of them got really angry, saying that means they're not 0:19:53.000 --> 0:19:55.159 going to be any change. You know, if this is true, 0:19:55.600 --> 0:19:58.720 there's not going to be any change, and they won't change. 0:19:59.160 --> 0:20:01.760 We're gonna take quick break and when we come back, 0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:05.280 we're actually going to hear from a voter in Chicago 0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:08.359 who was a staunch Democrat her entire life and jump 0:20:08.440 --> 0:20:13.040 ship for this election and is very passionate about Donald Trump, 0:20:13.080 --> 0:20:16.640 and stand will get your reaction to her feelings. That's 0:20:16.720 --> 0:20:27.679 right after this, we're back with Polster Extraordinaire Stan Greenberg. 0:20:27.720 --> 0:20:29.880 Do you like that title? Is that what your cards are? 0:20:29.920 --> 0:20:33.199 Stand Change, I'll change my website. Well, let's talk to 0:20:33.280 --> 0:20:37.760 someone who supported Donald Trump in the election. Her name 0:20:37.840 --> 0:20:42.400 is Janet Saulisbury. She's from Chicago. She is white, she's 0:20:42.440 --> 0:20:46.560 a single mom, and she's not the classic rural, white 0:20:46.560 --> 0:20:49.200 working class voter. But she has a lot to say 0:20:49.280 --> 0:20:55.080 about weis she switched from Barack Obama to Donald Trump. Janet, 0:20:55.119 --> 0:20:57.600 are you on the line. I'm here, nice to talk 0:20:57.640 --> 0:20:59.720 to you. Thank you so much for spending some time 0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:03.360 with us on our podcast. Tell us about why you 0:21:03.400 --> 0:21:06.320 decided to vote for Donald Trump and why you still 0:21:06.359 --> 0:21:09.959 support him. Um, you know, it was I've been a 0:21:10.000 --> 0:21:15.240 lifelong Democrat, grew up in an Irish Democratic Catholic family. Um, 0:21:15.359 --> 0:21:18.720 so it was a very very difficult decision. But it 0:21:18.840 --> 0:21:22.240 was actually summer when I was at a reunion with 0:21:22.280 --> 0:21:25.080 my college friends, and it was right when Trump had 0:21:25.080 --> 0:21:27.879 come down the escalator and everybody was just kind of 0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:30.720 like making a joke about it, and it sort of 0:21:30.760 --> 0:21:33.800 just to think, you know, and um, the more and 0:21:33.880 --> 0:21:37.040 more people like ruled him out, I started listening a 0:21:37.040 --> 0:21:39.440 little bit more to him and then saw the whole 0:21:39.600 --> 0:21:43.960 Bernie Sanders Hillary thing go on. And I'm probably in 0:21:43.960 --> 0:21:47.920 the category of what woman call exasperated. Um and so yeah, 0:21:47.920 --> 0:21:51.680 it was. It was exasperation. I felt nobody's listening to me, 0:21:52.200 --> 0:21:57.840 nobody's trying to reach out to me and my concerns. Um. 0:21:57.920 --> 0:22:00.600 And so I just it was a shaker. So it 0:22:00.680 --> 0:22:03.080 was let's shake it up because what we're doing isn't working. 0:22:03.200 --> 0:22:05.359 And one of the things you were most concerned about 0:22:05.600 --> 0:22:09.679 was your health care. Oh absolutely, Um. I worked for 0:22:09.680 --> 0:22:14.520 a very small family health company. UM. So we don't 0:22:14.560 --> 0:22:16.879 you know, our health plans change year to year, and 0:22:16.880 --> 0:22:19.600 I'm lucky that I do have some employee contribution to 0:22:19.680 --> 0:22:22.920 my health care, but I still pay a fair amount um. 0:22:22.960 --> 0:22:24.680 And I have a lot of I have a couple 0:22:24.680 --> 0:22:27.040 of friends who are like in business, other women in 0:22:27.119 --> 0:22:30.680 the business for themselves and just the way that their 0:22:30.760 --> 0:22:35.840 costs have been skyrocketing the last three years. UM. And 0:22:35.880 --> 0:22:40.680 nobody was willing to admit that Obamacare are Affordable Health 0:22:40.680 --> 0:22:43.359 Care Act isn't working and it needs to be fixed, 0:22:43.920 --> 0:22:45.680 you know. And and and then then one day when Bill 0:22:45.680 --> 0:22:47.560 Clinton stood up and I saw it on the news 0:22:47.600 --> 0:22:50.720 and he said, it's not working. The deductibles are skyrocking, 0:22:50.800 --> 0:22:55.399 the premiums are skyrocking. I thought, finally, finally someone's you know, 0:22:55.560 --> 0:22:59.920 hearing what's going on. So hey, Janet, I'm I'm Brian 0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:02.560 and Katie's co host, and I was just curious, how 0:23:02.560 --> 0:23:04.920 do you think about the way the media is covering 0:23:05.080 --> 0:23:08.359 President Trump right now? Um? You know, I have a 0:23:08.359 --> 0:23:12.639