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Speaker 1: What's up, guys, how are you? Good morning?

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Speaker 2: Welcome into a Thursday morning episode of the Daily Juice

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Speaker 2: podcast with me Matt Peralte. You guys can follow me

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Speaker 2: across all my socials at Sports Talk Matts. And we

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Speaker 2: did not have a good night yesterday. So we were

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Speaker 2: good Monday, three and oh. We were one and two,

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Speaker 2: should have been two and one, but went one and

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Speaker 2: two on Tuesday, and then we got smoked on Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: which is unfortunate.

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Speaker 1: But we are down for the week now.

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Speaker 2: Hard Rock Beck goes down, Marlins get punked, Mariners get

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Speaker 2: beat and the White Sox and the Rangers falls short

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Speaker 2: of the over. So we go oh in three Byron

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Speaker 2: Buxton did not play, so our player prop didn't go off.

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Speaker 2: So it's into a three and oh one in two

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Speaker 2: oh and three roller coaster week. As we continue here

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Speaker 2: today into a Thursday, there is a very small number

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Speaker 2: of games today in Major League Baseball. It is a

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Speaker 2: travel day for most teams. So rather than force it,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to give you two college football futures today.

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Speaker 2: We'll get into two teams I like with odds to

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Speaker 2: win the national championship. And remember this is about the

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Speaker 2: playoffs and it's about, well, you can have losses. Now,

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Speaker 2: this is a big thing in college football, and much

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Speaker 2: of the markets have really calibrated properly about getting into

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Speaker 2: the playoffs. You can have one or two losses and

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Speaker 2: make the college football playoffs and make a run in

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Speaker 2: the college football playoffs. So we will talk about that

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Speaker 2: coming up here today. There is one game I want

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Speaker 2: to talk about for Major League Baseball today that I've

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Speaker 2: made a play on. But before we do that, a

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Speaker 2: reminder of the sharp money tool that we have available

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Speaker 2: slash smart. The prediction market world yield information that we

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Speaker 2: They get limited or banned for winning, so they move

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Speaker 2: their money over to the picture market world, and that

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Speaker 2: money is a live readout what the pros actually think

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Speaker 2: a number should be. Our smart money tool helps you

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Speaker 2: uncover where the smart money is going and then you

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Speaker 2: can go find the price that's the same or better

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Speaker 2: at a regular sports book. A lot of times that's

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Speaker 2: the way you can find some value for NFL, NBA, WNBA,

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Speaker 2: Major League Baseball, or more. Check it out now at

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Speaker 2: bettingpros dot com slash Smart. Also a couple of announcements.

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Speaker 2: We have a new home run tool that we'll talk

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Speaker 2: about next week when we go live, there's going to

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Speaker 2: be a live Daily Juice. Stay tuned. It'll be at

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Speaker 2: a different time. There'll be a co host, Mike Mayer

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Speaker 2: is going to join me. We're going to put this together.

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Speaker 2: I'll tell you when and at what time later next week.

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Speaker 2: Be on the lookout for the first ever live Daily

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Speaker 2: Juice podcast as we will build a betting card for

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Speaker 2: you using our home run prop home run tool. So

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Speaker 2: it's going to be a different type of show, live show,

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Speaker 2: all on the Major League Baseball slate for that day,

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Speaker 2: So stay tuned for that. Coming up next week with

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Speaker 2: Mike Mayer and myself for a live version of the

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Speaker 2: Daily Juice Podcast. Let's talk National Championship. Two teams who

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Speaker 2: I think are presenting value to win the National Championship.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with the Alabama Crimson Tide. So there's a

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Speaker 2: quarterback question about the Alabama Crimson Tide. Okay, the Alabama

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Speaker 2: Crimson Tide are a team that generally speaking, they are

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Speaker 2: used to being one of the picks to win the

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Speaker 2: National Championship. They have five star players all over the place,

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Speaker 2: they have big money, they have nil deals all over

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Speaker 2: the place. Yet Alabama at certain books can be found

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Speaker 2: to win the National Championship as high as twenty five

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Speaker 2: to one. They have two quarterbacks Keelan Russell and Austin

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Speaker 2: Mack that we'll see how they wind up shaking out.

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Speaker 2: Mac is a veteran been with Kellen de Boor for

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Speaker 2: a while. He has been the stable, this staple quarterback.

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Speaker 2: And then you have the five star stud in Russell,

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Speaker 2: who plays will find out. Alabama's early part of the

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Speaker 2: schedule is East Carolina at Kentucky in a revenge game

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Speaker 2: against Florida State after what happened last year where Alabama

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Speaker 2: just did not play well at all, lost thirty one

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Speaker 2: to seventeen in Tallahassee and really set the year off

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Speaker 2: on a very sour note for the Crimson Tide. But

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Speaker 2: they still went eleven and four. They still were able

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Speaker 2: to go and beat Oklahoma in the playoffs, and there

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Speaker 2: was some optimism until they played Indiana and they got

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Speaker 2: absolutely destroyed by Indiana, I mean just flat out blown away.

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Speaker 2: The defense for alabama is going to be really good.

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Speaker 2: And this is where I think we focus because defense

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Speaker 2: and line of scrimmage play. I think college football it's

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Speaker 2: going back to the way football used to be one.

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Speaker 2: You know, for a long time, if I had a

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Speaker 2: better quarterback than you and college football, I had a

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Speaker 2: gigantic advantage. But I think it's coming back down to

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Speaker 2: the line of scrimmage. Why because a lot of these

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Speaker 2: upper level teams, they're paying for these players, and the

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Speaker 2: talent pool to get these players isn't that deep, and

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Speaker 2: so a lot of these elite teams they've got stud

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Speaker 2: guys everywhere. They're stud cornerbacks, they're stud wide receivers, they've

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Speaker 2: stud running backs, they're stud linebackers. Right, So where are

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Speaker 2: we going to differentiate ourselves in the in the line

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Speaker 2: defensive and offensive lines, We're going to differentiate. And Alabama's

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Speaker 2: defensive line is going to be really good. So their

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Speaker 2: schedule is why we have a twenty five to one

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Speaker 2: number on Alabama to win the national championship. However, look,

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Speaker 2: the Florida State game is a revenge game for them.

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Speaker 2: Then they played Georgia at home, massive game at Tennessee

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Speaker 2: in back to back weeks. You could say the whole

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Speaker 2: year is hinging on those two games. But Alabama against

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Speaker 2: Kirby smart historically speaking. Now that's what Nick saban. But

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Speaker 2: Bama's done a good job against Georgia, and maybe this

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Speaker 2: is a time for Alabama's defense to rise up and

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Speaker 2: stop Gunner Stockton and that Georgia offense and Bama wins

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Speaker 2: at home, they go to Tennessee. It's obviously going to

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Speaker 2: be a big year in Tennessee with Josh Hipel, but

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Speaker 2: I think Bama, after having some House of horrors in Knoxville,

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Speaker 2: could go and win that game against Alabama on the

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Speaker 2: third Saturday in October against Tennessee rather for Alabama. And

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Speaker 2: then it comes down to at LSU, which I think

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Speaker 2: is a loss. Okay, but it's Lane Kiffin. It's year one.

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Speaker 2: Let's see how it plays out. I mean, LSU could

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Speaker 2: be tremendous. Alabama could lose that football game and they

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Speaker 2: have Auburn at home for the Iron Bowl this year.

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Speaker 1: But here's the thing, Alabama.

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Speaker 2: If they were to beat Georgia, beat Tennessee, beat Florida State,

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Speaker 2: if they get those, they can lose to LSU. They

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Speaker 2: could even potentially lose at Vanderbilt as well, and back

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Speaker 2: to back weeks and at ten and two, Alabama might

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Speaker 2: be able to make the College Football Playoffs. They may

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Speaker 2: be able to win if they they beat LSU, they

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Speaker 2: may be able to make the SEC Championship Game, where

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Speaker 2: they probably will play Georgia in a rematch.

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Speaker 1: So year three historically.

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Speaker 2: I was talking to Pete Futek from College Footballnews dot

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Speaker 2: Com on pushing the Odds yesterday and he put it

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Speaker 2: out a really interesting stat about Alabama in year three

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Speaker 2: under coaches like Gene Stallings and Nick Saban. Year three

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Speaker 2: was the year that everything turned around. In both those

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Speaker 2: coaches had won twenty games like Kellen de boor has

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Speaker 2: in his first two years at Alabama, and then everything

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Speaker 2: hockey sticked and took off. Is this the time for

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Speaker 2: Kelln de bore to take off with Alabama? I wasn't

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Speaker 2: really sure until I heard Stephen A. Smith at SEC

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Speaker 2: Media Days talk about firing Kelln de Bore. Hold on second, Now,

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Speaker 2: I know he's had a rough start by BAMA standards,

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Speaker 2: but you're replacing Nick Saban. You're replacing the greatest coach

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Speaker 2: in college football history.

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Speaker 1: The second I saw that.

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Speaker 2: I went, yep, I'm in on Bama if we're gonna

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Speaker 2: stand up there, and I think that comment by Steven A.

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Speaker 2: Smith is going to age the same way comment about

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Speaker 2: Tom Brady and Cliff's remember those comments tom Brady's gonna

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Speaker 2: fall off a cliff Max Kellerman. Ah, this is potentially

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Speaker 2: the same situation here with Steven A. Smith where he's

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Speaker 2: gonna have that comment around his neck for the entire

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Speaker 2: college football season and maybe deep into the postseason after

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Speaker 2: saying that this team should fire. Kelln de Boorr, I

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Speaker 2: think Bama is ferociously upset about what happened last year.

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Speaker 2: People questioned their heart in the game against Indiana. They're

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Speaker 2: not used to that. I think the entire SEC is

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Speaker 2: furious about the Big Ten winning three straight national championships

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Speaker 2: in Indiana being the defending national champ that has recalibrated

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Speaker 2: the entire conference. And that's all they're talking about at

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Speaker 2: SEC football media days. Give me Alabama at twenty five

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Speaker 2: to one to win the national championship.

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Speaker 1: We'll be able to hedge off of it.

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Speaker 2: But that's a ridiculous number for the Crimson Tide. At

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Speaker 2: twenty five to one to win the national championship, I'm

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Speaker 2: not done. Let's talk about Oklahoma. Oh you another SEC team.

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Speaker 2: Brett Venerables defensive mastermind, top ten defense in college football.

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Speaker 1: Get a load of.

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Speaker 2: These stats last year for Oklahoma because they were so

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Speaker 2: good defensively. Last year they were number six nationally in

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Speaker 2: points allowed with fifteen point five points per game. Total defense,

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Speaker 2: they were six nationally. They led the SEC in both

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Speaker 2: those categories. Rushing defense under seventy eight yards per game

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Speaker 2: on the ground given up.

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Speaker 1: That's third nationally.

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Speaker 2: Third defense, twenty eight percent conversion rate that's tied for

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Speaker 2: number two nationally. They had forty five sacks last year,

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Speaker 2: and they are bringing back five of their top eight

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Speaker 2: tackulars on this defense for Oklahoma, They're gonna be a pain.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna be really tough to play. And I know

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Speaker 2: everyone's talking about Texas and arch Manning. Everyone's raving about

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Speaker 2: what's gonna happen with Texas and how this offense with

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Speaker 2: their new tools, with their new toys that they have

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Speaker 2: come in and they have spent a boatload of money

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Speaker 2: in the nil world. In Texas's number one preseason, they're

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Speaker 2: the odds on favorite to win the national championship. But

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Speaker 2: I'm going the other way and I'm going to the

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Speaker 2: other side of Red River and I'm gonna look at Oklahoma.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna look at Brent Vennerbiles, and more importantly, I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna look at John Mattier, who is a veteran senior

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Speaker 2: presence in this offense. And I think last year, with

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Speaker 2: the hand injury that he suffered, he fought through it.

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Speaker 2: He came back too fast. He had a really bad

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Speaker 2: couple of games when he came back.

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Speaker 1: The lost.

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Speaker 2: Alabama stunned everybody, but they couldn't move. Bama's defense played

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Speaker 2: so well in that game. But Oklahoma's defense is going

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Speaker 2: to be a serious problem. And if this offense can

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Speaker 2: figure out a way of keeping John Matteer healthy. Look,

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Speaker 2: they play at Michigan, that's not easy. They play at

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Speaker 2: Georgia that's really tough. They play Texas, that's really hard.

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Speaker 2: They play at Florida, We'll see how difficult that's going

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Speaker 2: to be. But and then at Missouri home games in Missouri,

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Speaker 2: if Hardy isn't Hardy with the shotgun injury or the

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Speaker 2: gunshot injury, should say I don't know what happens with

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Speaker 2: that offense. From Missouri home games against Texas, A and

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Speaker 2: m Ole Miss, South Carolina, Kentucky. It is ranked by

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Speaker 2: most people's preseason standards as the most difficult schedule in

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Speaker 2: the country. If it plays like that, it gives us

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Speaker 2: an opportunity to get Oklahoma into the playoffs. Why because

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Speaker 2: they could lose to Georgia on the road. It was

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Speaker 2: in between the headges is there's nothing to be sorry

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Speaker 2: about that, and then they could lose to Texas in

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Speaker 2: the Red River.

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Speaker 1: But I think they might win the Red River.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I think Oklahoma with Arch I'm just not that

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Speaker 2: big of a fan of arch Manning. Okay, I just

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Speaker 2: I got to see a lot more out of arch

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Speaker 2: Manning before I'm like, Okay, that guy's the number one

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Speaker 2: pick overall in the draft. I know what the last

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Speaker 2: name says, but let's see the play itself. What does

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Speaker 2: arch Manning at the player look like? Maybe he takes

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Speaker 2: a big leap and maybe I'm dead wrong. Okay, maybe

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Speaker 2: he plays great in the Red River. I got to

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Speaker 2: see it before. I'm going to bet on Texas and

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Speaker 2: Arch Manning. And at thirty five to one DraftKings has

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Speaker 2: this number at thirty five to one by most people's

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Speaker 2: that's five to eight dollars higher than most people. I

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Speaker 2: don't know what the liability where that has structured with

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Speaker 2: the risk team for Oklahoma, but they want Oklahoma money

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Speaker 2: and I'm going to give it to him at DraftKings

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Speaker 2: for thirty five to one on Oklahoma to win the

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Speaker 2: national championship again. If they get into the playoffs. Let's

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Speaker 2: see how it plays out. But I think even with

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Speaker 2: two losses, they can lose to Georgia and lose to

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Speaker 2: Texas and win everything else. The Michigan game is the

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Speaker 2: most important. They have got to win at Michigan. If

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Speaker 2: they win that game, that's a huge feather in their cap.

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Speaker 2: That's a monster statement and it gets them going on

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Speaker 2: the right path. If they lose to Michigan, it makes

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Speaker 2: the Texas game a requirement. With red River, They've got Georgia,

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Speaker 2: then a bye, and then Texas. That's a ridiculous three

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Speaker 2: week stretch, two games in one by they could very

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Speaker 2: well lose both those games. They need to win one

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Speaker 2: of them in my opinion, But they can lose both

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Speaker 2: those games if they beat Michigan and win everything else.

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Speaker 2: So ten and three last year, John Mattier to run

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Speaker 2: the football and stay healthy and really turn this offense up.

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Speaker 1: We know what the defense is going to do.

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Speaker 2: The defense is going to be absolutely tremendous, maybe the

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Speaker 2: best defense in the entire country. At thirty five to one.

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Speaker 2: I love the value thirty five to one. Oklahoma to

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Speaker 2: win the national championship at thirty five to one.

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Speaker 1: One unit down on that.

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Speaker 2: The Daily Jews podcast is being brought to you by

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Speaker 3: called one eight hundred gambler.

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Speaker 2: Speaking of baseball, one game today that I like, it's

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Speaker 2: a light schedule. Braves and our friend Chris Sale. Chris

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Speaker 2: Sale last time out at home against Texas fifteen to one,

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Speaker 2: the win. Game before that at home against the Mets

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Speaker 2: fourteen to three. The win, Chris Sale went seven, gave

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Speaker 2: up no urn runs. In the game against Texas, Chris

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Speaker 2: Sale went five, gave up three earn runs to the Mets.

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Speaker 2: Chris Sale has a one point eight er. Chris Sale

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Speaker 2: with the All Star break and getting a chance to

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Speaker 2: get himself some rest here and then come out against

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Speaker 2: the Padres who simply cannot hit their way out of

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Speaker 2: a paper bag. The Braves have taken two of the

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Speaker 2: first three games. They won three to two and seven

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Speaker 2: to six. They lost eight to three. The Braves are

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Speaker 2: facing off against Griffin Canning, who is one in eight

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Speaker 2: with a six point sixty seven ERA. He when he's

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Speaker 2: on the mound. The Padres have lost four consecutive starts

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Speaker 2: six to one, three to one, three nothing, three to two.

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Speaker 2: That's three and one on the run line in the

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Speaker 2: month of July. That's three and oh on the run

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Speaker 2: line for the opponents of Griffin Canning and the Padres.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna go three or four innings. He's given up

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Speaker 2: seven earned runs in twelve and a third innings worth

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Speaker 2: of work. That's a five point one to one ERRA

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Speaker 2: for Griffin Canning for an offense that can't score with

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Speaker 2: a pitcher that can't get anybody out, I'm willing to

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Speaker 2: go ahead and drop it down with the run line here,

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Speaker 2: even with the home game. I'm gonna go with the

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Speaker 2: run line on the Braves at minus one twenty for

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Speaker 2: one point two units to win one coming back lay

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Speaker 2: the run line one and a half runs with the

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Speaker 2: Braves today.

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Speaker 1: So plays for.

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Speaker 2: Today Oklahoma to win It All Alabama to win it

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Speaker 2: all thirty five to one and twenty five to one

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Speaker 2: and only one bet for today. That's the Braves on

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Speaker 2: the run line minus one twenty. My name is Matt Parolt,

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Speaker 2: you guys and following me across all my socials at

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Speaker 2: Sports Talk Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice