Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. The good news, we have
Speaker 1: some real actionable information on teams at this point, so
Speaker 1: we can analyze the lines with an eye toward what
Speaker 1: we've seen over the last two weeks. The bad news,
Speaker 1: some notable injuries have thrown everything out of whack and
Speaker 1: everything is crazy as we're going to talk about the
Speaker 1: differences in the movement in the lines in both the
Speaker 1: Steelers forty nine Ers game as opposed to the Seahawks
Speaker 1: Saints game. Considering the injuries to Ben Roethlisberger Andrew Brees
Speaker 1: is really interesting. We'll get to all of that and
Speaker 1: more today. And with me to break everything down is
Speaker 1: Rufus Peabody, a professional sports betteran analyst. You can find
Speaker 1: his stuff at Massy Peabody Analytics and follow him on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Rufus Peabody. Rufus, thanks for joining me. How's
Speaker 1: it going pretty good?
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me, Dan.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna pull the curtain back a little bit. We're
Speaker 1: recording this late. We're roughly getting to the fourth quarter
Speaker 1: of the Jets Browns game, and we were late because
Speaker 1: you had a bowling And I just want you to
Speaker 1: know that I was telling you. I respect that significantly,
Speaker 1: and that's why I had no problem moving the podcast
Speaker 1: because it is the thing that I'm actually best at
Speaker 1: in life. And we just found out we live like
Speaker 1: an hour from each other. So maybe in a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks, maybe you and I will talk some sports gambling,
Speaker 1: and maybe we'll get together for a nice bowling match.
Speaker 2: What he says sounds amazing. So I have to ask,
Speaker 2: what's your highest score ever bowling.
Speaker 3: Two twenty four? It's pretty good, not bad? Right, what
Speaker 3: about you?
Speaker 1: Okay, so we're not really in the same league that
Speaker 1: I get it. I'm gonna I'm going to rescind the
Speaker 1: invitation to go bowling, if that's okay with you, because.
Speaker 3: I don't really want to be embarrassed.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I'm a high variance bowler, so I
Speaker 2: can be really good or really bad.
Speaker 3: All right, I'll take it. Then.
Speaker 1: Well, anyway, today we're going to go through every over
Speaker 1: under and spread for the week three games. Now, both
Speaker 1: these spreads and the over unders, we're going to be
Speaker 1: using the bettingpros dot Com consensus numbers. That is an
Speaker 1: aggregation of the odds that are available on the market,
Speaker 1: and as I always note, there are gonna be some
Speaker 1: differences at the various sports books, particularly this week with
Speaker 1: all the chaos, so make sure to shop around. But
Speaker 1: for now, just know that when I list any given odds,
Speaker 1: they're bettingpros dot Com consenstance ods. All right, my friend,
Speaker 1: let us begin with the Thursday night game, the Titans
Speaker 1: at the Jaguars. Right now, it's at the Titans laying
Speaker 1: one and the over under at forty. I saw this
Speaker 1: opening at spots as the Titans laying two and a half,
Speaker 1: so it has moved a little bit. It is the
Speaker 1: lowest over under of the week, which makes sense. Do
Speaker 1: you have any sort of reaction to that line, because
Speaker 1: I mean, the minus one, As far as I'm concerned,
Speaker 1: it's pretty irrelevant to me, right, I mean, at that
Speaker 1: point it could be the Jaguars minus one.
Speaker 3: It wouldn't really matter, right, right.
Speaker 2: I Mean, you do see more games land on zero
Speaker 2: now with the new overtime rules in the last few years,
Speaker 2: but still, I mean, you know that line, frankly, surprised me.
Speaker 2: It surprises me. I think I expected it to a
Speaker 2: little higher. I personally like the the Titans that I've
Speaker 2: already actually you know, laid that, laid minus one and
Speaker 2: have a full position down for me. So I'm not
Speaker 2: going to be adding no matter what at this point.
Speaker 2: But you know, I hate I hate being on road favorites.
Speaker 2: It just feels wrong. But this line just I think
Speaker 2: I'm higher than the market on Tennessee in general. And
Speaker 2: I actually kind of leaned to Jacksonville last week. So
Speaker 2: and I think, you know, Gardner minshe's a bit of
Speaker 2: a wild card, and you know, he did not play
Speaker 2: well last week to be quite honest. But I mean
Speaker 2: I still think he's not a huge, huge downgrade from
Speaker 2: you know, from Nick Foles. So you know, I depending
Speaker 2: looking at my team level model, my player level model
Speaker 2: like together. I mean, I think the spread should be
Speaker 2: right around like four and a half towards the Titans.
Speaker 2: What do you think?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, the Jaguars kept it close against the
Speaker 1: Texans this past week. They went for two at the end,
Speaker 1: so they easily could have run. There was a report
Speaker 1: tonight that Jalen Ramsey wants out and he is requesting
Speaker 1: a trade. I don't really think he's gonna get one
Speaker 1: before Thursday, and I don't necessarily know what impact that
Speaker 1: would have even if he did. Anyway, I don't think
Speaker 1: cornerbacks necessarily are the type of players who are going
Speaker 1: to move lines like that. But regardless, that just may
Speaker 1: indicate that the Jaguars are slipping into a little bit
Speaker 1: of disarray here. So I think favoring the Titans when
Speaker 1: it's essentially a pick him is probably the right way
Speaker 1: to go. And I wouldn't be surprised. I mean, it's
Speaker 1: a Thursday game, so there's not that much time, but
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised to see it move a little
Speaker 1: bit more towards the Titans at this point. All right,
Speaker 1: Broncos at the Packers. Packers here are laying eight and
Speaker 1: the over under is at forty three and a half.
Speaker 1: This has moved just a tiny bit. It opened from
Speaker 1: what I saw at least yesterday it was at Packers
Speaker 1: laying seven and a half. So it's moved half a
Speaker 1: point in favor of the Packers, and the over under
Speaker 1: has moved down from forty four to forty three and
Speaker 1: a half. I mean, two teams with pretty solid defense.
Speaker 1: Is how do you feel overall about that line eight
Speaker 1: Packers laying eight and over under at forty three and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 2: Well, the Packers defense has been kind of like, I mean,
Speaker 2: they've they've they've been really really good the first two games,
Speaker 2: and I don't think we really expected that going into
Speaker 2: the season, at least, you know, my numbers didn't, you know,
Speaker 2: so my prior on them was not particularly high. And
Speaker 2: at this point we have to remember it's only been
Speaker 2: two games. You know, there's teams that look really good
Speaker 2: and look really bad, and you know, but you know
Speaker 2: there's teams that have really good weeks eleven and twelve too,
Speaker 2: but we don't overreact to those because we have this,
Speaker 2: you know, we have a lot of games under our
Speaker 2: belt at that point. We don't at this point, so
Speaker 2: I would caution, you know, against overreacting to how green
Speaker 2: based defense is played. Like they've played well and there
Speaker 2: is predictive value in that. But at the same time,
Speaker 2: it still is only two games, so I think that
Speaker 2: you know, I haven't run I don't have my numbers
Speaker 2: for the total yet, but you know, if it was
Speaker 2: last week, you know, I would have the total much
Speaker 2: higher than the market. So I still think I probably
Speaker 2: will lean over if anything, and I kind of lean
Speaker 2: a little to Denver here too. I don't think that,
Speaker 2: you know, I think Defense is still substantially better than
Speaker 2: the Packers defense, despite you know what we've seen in
Speaker 2: actually by substantially looking at it, now half a point better,
Speaker 2: but still that's better. Yeah, and I'm actually kind of
Speaker 2: bearish on the on the Packers as a whole, you know,
Speaker 2: which kind of surprisingly, you know, they still have Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 2: He's getting older though he is in a new system.
Speaker 2: But uh, you know, I kind of think that that
Speaker 2: line might get down to just seven. We'll see, I'm
Speaker 2: planning on I lean towards the Packers, or sorry, I
Speaker 2: lean towards the Broncos. So I'm I'm I'm hoping it
Speaker 2: goes up a little bit so I can get a
Speaker 2: better price on Denver. But my guess is it'll, you know,
Speaker 2: close at seven. That's if I had guess.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this strikes me as something where the public and
Speaker 1: the sharp betters are going to be a little split.
Speaker 1: I think that the public is going to look at
Speaker 1: the Broncos and kind of be like the Broncos stink,
Speaker 1: and they're going to look at the Packers and be like,
Speaker 1: the Packers are great, and they have Aaron Rodgers, and
Speaker 1: suddenly they have a.
Speaker 3: Defense, which, by the way, I do think is legitimate.
Speaker 1: I realize that it has been two games and that
Speaker 1: is a good point, but they obviously made tons of
Speaker 1: additions in the offseason and it's coming to fruition. So far,
Speaker 1: they haven't faced the most explosive offenses here against the
Speaker 1: Bears and the Vikings necessarily, but I do think it's
Speaker 1: legit and at home. So it is something where I
Speaker 1: imagine that the line is probably going to drop back
Speaker 1: to about seven and a half. I don't think it
Speaker 1: will get down to seven, but I think it's probably
Speaker 1: going to be one where there's going to be a
Speaker 1: split among the public and the sharp betters, is my guest,
Speaker 1: for basically the exact reasons you said, go ahead.
Speaker 2: That makes a lot of sense. And also I just
Speaker 2: want to point I'm looking at my game grades here
Speaker 2: in Green Bay. I didn't you know they played well
Speaker 2: in defense against Minnesota, obviously limited Kirk Cousins, who is
Speaker 2: a Redskins fan. I mean, I guess you know the
Speaker 2: Redskins do a lot of things wrong, like everything wrong,
Speaker 2: but maybe they were right not to let Kirk Cousins go.
Speaker 2: But Green Bay they actually had a subpar game grade
Speaker 2: according to my numbers on offense, so you know they
Speaker 2: you know, obviously Denver's pretty bad on offense, but Green
Speaker 2: Bays their offense has not been good in either of
Speaker 2: the first two games.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know one thing we're not even talking about
Speaker 1: because I haven't heard anything on it. It did look
Speaker 1: like Aaron Rodgers kind of sustained some sort of arm
Speaker 1: injury in late in that game. He didn't throw very
Speaker 1: much towards the end. There hasn't been any word on it,
Speaker 1: but you will want to monitor that because if it
Speaker 1: is anything that could at all limit him, you probably
Speaker 1: want to come in on the Broncos there. By the way,
Speaker 1: do just want to point out that you being a
Speaker 1: Redskins fan and me being a Jets fan maybe makes
Speaker 1: this the saddest podcast of all time, but we're going
Speaker 1: to try to power through it. Let's move on to
Speaker 1: the Falcons at the Colts. The Colts here are laying
Speaker 1: two and a half and the over under is at
Speaker 1: forty seven and a half. That's down from about half
Speaker 1: a point from where it opened. Both teams are coming
Speaker 1: off big wins here. I'm a little surprised by it.
Speaker 1: I thought it would be more like one. Not that
Speaker 1: it really makes a difference when it's under three necessarily,
Speaker 1: but I think I thought that it was going to
Speaker 1: be after the Falcons big win, it was gonna move
Speaker 1: down a little bit, but it stayed at two and
Speaker 1: a half right from the thought, right from the start.
Speaker 1: Any thoughts on that Colts playing two and a half
Speaker 1: over under at forty seven and a half.
Speaker 2: You know, I kind of agree with you on that.
Speaker 2: And the Falcons are an interesting team to me because
Speaker 2: basically the my individual player numbers like show that they
Speaker 2: are a much more talented team than their actual game
Speaker 2: results have indicated. And that's kind of gone back. That's
Speaker 2: been that was the same last year as well, So
Speaker 2: it seems like they're a team that's kind of underachieved.
Speaker 2: You know, they're the their offensive line play has not
Speaker 2: been good, and I was expecting it to be a
Speaker 2: little better. But you know, I do think that in
Speaker 2: Jacoby Brissett for the Colts, I kind of thought that
Speaker 2: the market would what have valued Aaron or sorry, Aaron
Speaker 2: Andrew luck a little bit more than it has. But
Speaker 2: but Jacoby said, has proved to be quite serviceable so far.
Speaker 2: And obviously the Colts also have a lot of talent.
Speaker 2: But I you know, Atlanta did let's see where where
Speaker 2: was their game grade last week? Yeah? That was late
Speaker 2: last They were the thirteenth best, so they basically I
Speaker 2: had them as a zero point twenty five points better
Speaker 2: than average, meaning that if you, I mean, that's adjusting
Speaker 2: for their opponent and adjusting for home field advantage. And
Speaker 2: he played a little bit better point four points better.
Speaker 2: But man, everybody was very very clustered this past week.
Speaker 2: So yeah, so I make you know, honestly, my my
Speaker 2: models diverge here a little bit. But I like the
Speaker 2: Falcons here at plus three, and yeah, I'm already down
Speaker 2: at Falcons at plus three, so I'm thinking it may
Speaker 2: close underfield goal.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well right now, we've got it the consensus at
Speaker 1: two and a half, so it is already down a
Speaker 1: little bit. Then if you if you saw it at three,
Speaker 1: I don't really know, I honestly don't. I mean, I've
Speaker 1: been pretty big on the Colts coming in. I thought
Speaker 1: that the total freak out, I get it. I mean
Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissett is not Andrew Luck. He's nowhere close to
Speaker 1: Andrew Luck. But I feel like everybody had twenty seventeen
Speaker 1: in their mind and they thought he was just going
Speaker 1: to come in and be terrible, like when he was
Speaker 1: signed off the street that year. But that's not what
Speaker 1: this is. It's a different offensive system, it's a different team,
Speaker 1: and he was taking first reps for the entire preseason.
Speaker 1: So you know, I like them. I think they're competent.
Speaker 1: I'm still a little bit surprised, just because I feel
Speaker 1: like Colts laying two and a half begs people to
Speaker 1: take the Falcons at that point, and I think it will,
Speaker 1: and so you know, I wouldn't be surprised to necessarily
Speaker 1: see this line actually move down. But you know, at
Speaker 1: this point that strikes me as a line that I
Speaker 1: was surprised to see where it was, and I would
Speaker 1: expect it perhaps to even drop a little bit. So
Speaker 1: if you like the Falcons, I think that i'd probably
Speaker 1: get it now.
Speaker 2: Personally, Yeah, and per Set, I mean, I think the
Speaker 2: Colts do value Perset pretty highly. They did trade what
Speaker 2: a third rounder to the Patriots for.
Speaker 1: Him, Yeah, and they signed him to an extension. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's basically the equivalent of get him the franchise tag.
Speaker 1: But you know, they do like him and he can
Speaker 1: run that off. It's a great system and they're a
Speaker 1: great team. You know, outside of Brissett. I'm not saying
Speaker 1: anything about him. He's fine. You know, he can start
Speaker 1: in the NFL. But they have an elite offensive line,
Speaker 1: They've got a solid defense. Mac is a pretty decent
Speaker 1: running back. T Y Hilton is still good. They really
Speaker 1: they have a very strong team and if you have
Speaker 1: somebody who knows that system, they can be good. But again,
Speaker 1: at this point, I don't think the public has really
Speaker 1: caught on to them necessarily. I mean, maybe because they
Speaker 1: beat the Titans, that's what they're thinking. But again, I'm
Speaker 1: a little bit surprised by this. I thought that the
Speaker 1: spread would be a little bit closer here, and I
Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised to see money come in on the
Speaker 1: Falcons and see it move down. Let's move on to
Speaker 1: the Ravens at the Chiefs. I was a little bit
Speaker 1: surprised by this one. This has the Chiefs laying six
Speaker 1: and a half. It was at six now that total
Speaker 1: right now is at fifty five and a half in
Speaker 1: our Consustus rankings. I saw it open at fifty two,
Speaker 1: so I think Better's most likely hammered the over here.
Speaker 1: And you can understand why. This is the first game
Speaker 1: of the season in Arrowhead and the Ravens have played
Speaker 1: some soft competition. So for me, when I looked at this,
Speaker 1: I was I get the Ravens have been incredible and
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson has been great, but they've played the Dolphins
Speaker 1: and they've played the Cardinals. Those are not strong defenses.
Speaker 1: I was really surprised that this was under a touchdown here,
Speaker 1: given how Mahomes has looked. So what's your reaction here
Speaker 1: at Chiefs laying six and a half in the over
Speaker 1: under at fifty five and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a little surprised too, just given the sort
Speaker 2: of Lamar Jackson hype we had week one and the
Speaker 2: fact that he backed up that performance with another good
Speaker 2: performance at least on the surface last week. So the
Speaker 2: other I mean, I'm not surprised that the total is
Speaker 2: so high, and that's again that's something where I'm gonna
Speaker 2: be playing the under for sure. I think that it
Speaker 2: might be one where I'm gonna wait a little bit
Speaker 2: as well, right now, it's Monday night. I haven't bet
Speaker 2: any totals yet. The number, I mean limits just are
Speaker 2: not high enough at this point. But I'm I lean
Speaker 2: towards Baltimore here. You know, honestly, it depends on what
Speaker 2: you think of Lamar Jackson, how much you value two
Speaker 2: games this year versus what you saw last year. And
Speaker 2: I think just I guess from I mean not a
Speaker 2: non modeling perspective, intuitively, I mean, the Ravens have had
Speaker 2: all off season to design a system around Lamar Jackson's strengths,
Speaker 2: and it seems like they've definitely done that and done
Speaker 2: that well. And that's that's kind of hard to model.
Speaker 2: And so the fact that my player value on Lamar
Speaker 2: Jackson going into the season was not frankly pretty poor,
Speaker 2: like like twenty fifth best quarterback in the NFL, I
Speaker 2: think that, you know, I don't actually believe that right now,
Speaker 2: because I do believe they have designed a really good
Speaker 2: system around him. And so my team level model actually
Speaker 2: makes the game of three and a half points, right, So.
Speaker 1: I interest I think, Okay, so you were surprised. You
Speaker 1: were saying, sorry, I didn't mean to go off, but
Speaker 1: you were because I came in and I said, I'm
Speaker 1: surprised this wasn't at a touchdown. You sounded like, right
Speaker 1: off the bat, you basically said you were surprised that
Speaker 1: it was as high as it was.
Speaker 3: Right, Well, you.
Speaker 2: Have the Ravens defense, which is a fantastic unit, and
Speaker 2: I believe I have them as the best defense in
Speaker 2: the NFL. Yes, I do by a substantial margin. So
Speaker 2: you yeah, and yes.
Speaker 3: Out of curiosity. Out of curiosity.
Speaker 1: Sorry, again, I don't mean to get you up, but
Speaker 1: I'm interested in you know, you're a very analytical guy.
Speaker 1: I really want to get into this. How is that based?
Speaker 1: Because again, they have faced you know, they faced the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: which really doesn't count. I mean essentially, right, you can
Speaker 1: essentially throw that out, and they faced the Cardinals. How
Speaker 1: much does that take into account the fact that they've
Speaker 1: played two offenses that.
Speaker 3: Really kind of struggled to move the ball.
Speaker 1: I mean, I realized that Kyler Murray looked fairly good
Speaker 1: this past week, But I mean, how much does that
Speaker 1: take into account if they're the best defense in the
Speaker 1: NFL given who they played so far?
Speaker 2: Oh, it definitely takes it into account. Like, it's more
Speaker 2: the reason that I have them as the best is
Speaker 2: because that's basically what I expected them to be going
Speaker 2: into the season. They were the number one defense in
Speaker 2: the NFL by over a point over number two Chicago
Speaker 2: and Myts going into the season, so and basically that
Speaker 2: hasn't changed much at least at the top. I mean personally,
Speaker 2: I think that, you know, I think people you know,
Speaker 2: Miami's obviously awful, but they have played the Patriots and
Speaker 2: the Ravens, which are too like two teams that are
Speaker 2: you know, possibly super you know, Patriots obviously a Super
Speaker 2: Bowl contender, and Ravens are a team that I think
Speaker 2: have a good chance to get a first Round by
Speaker 2: this year and win their division. So actually, way you
Speaker 2: have Patriots and Chiefs that are the best teams in
Speaker 2: the football, but like the Ravens are not too far
Speaker 2: behind given their defense, and so they don't need Lamar
Speaker 2: Jackson to be incredible. They just need him to be
Speaker 2: decent and they have you know that they're they're a
Speaker 2: Super Bowl contender, So I don't think, you know, it's
Speaker 2: just like, you know, the Patriots held the Dolphins to
Speaker 2: what sixty yards in the first three quarters of football, which, yes,
Speaker 2: they're the Dolphins, but holding any team to sixty yards
Speaker 2: over three quarters, it's really impressive. So I don't think,
Speaker 2: and I don't think, we can just throw out the
Speaker 2: Ravens performance against the Dolphins and just say, oh, it
Speaker 2: was just the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: No I And again, I don't mean to be doing
Speaker 1: that whatsoever. I think the Ravens are certainly a strong team,
Speaker 1: and I like them right now in the North, especially
Speaker 1: with Roethlisberger's injury, and they weren't looking great anyway. But
Speaker 1: it's just man, the Chiefs at this point and what
Speaker 1: Mahomes is still able to do just really scaring. But
Speaker 1: this is great. We're bringing two different perspectives. You sort
Speaker 1: of felt like the line should have been lower. I
Speaker 1: felt like the line should have been higher. So I'm
Speaker 1: interested to see where this one is going to end up.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to our next game, the Bengals at
Speaker 1: the Bills. The Bills here are laying six. Now, I
Speaker 1: did see this open in a lot of spots at
Speaker 1: the Bills laying four, so it has moved up a
Speaker 1: bit here, and the over under at forty three and
Speaker 1: a half. This is also something where I saw it
Speaker 1: open up at forty two. I mean, the Bills defense
Speaker 1: has been really strong through two games. I haven't faced
Speaker 1: the toughest competition. The Bengals were surprisingly competent against the
Speaker 1: Seahawk in Week one, not so much in Week two
Speaker 1: against the four nine ers. The six points, you know,
Speaker 1: strikes me as a little bit of an overreaction, but
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not sure.
Speaker 3: What do you think.
Speaker 1: What's your reaction to Bills lank six over under at
Speaker 1: forty three and a half.
Speaker 2: Well, personally, so, as I said before, you know, it's
Speaker 2: We've only had two games so far. So going into
Speaker 2: the season, I had the Bills as zero point three
Speaker 2: to five points better than average league average on defense,
Speaker 2: and after two games I now have them at one
Speaker 2: point plus one point three to nine, so they only
Speaker 2: go up a point, which kind of you know, I
Speaker 2: feel like that seems like an underreaction, right, but it is.
Speaker 2: I guess what I'm saying is that's basically what the
Speaker 2: numbers bear out. And I hate Cincinnati.
Speaker 3: I mean my rate like the city, the city, or
Speaker 3: the or the Bell Gulls.
Speaker 2: I hate my numbers on Cincinnati. It feels like I'm
Speaker 2: always too high on them for some reason, because Andy
Speaker 2: Dalton is has a lot of experience and has been
Speaker 2: a serviceable quarterback over the years. He's obviously not a
Speaker 2: super star or anything like that, but he's you know,
Speaker 2: he's not Luke Falk, right, all right, gratuitous but go ahead.
Speaker 2: Who I called Nick Falk earlier accidentally?
Speaker 1: But you're just again you were thinking of Nick Folk,
Speaker 1: the former Jets kicker.
Speaker 3: But go ahead.
Speaker 2: So here's a question for you. If you, let's say
Speaker 2: you put Andy Dalton's quarterback of the Bills and Josh
Speaker 2: Allen this quarterback of the Bengals, how does that line change.
Speaker 3: Wow, that's a great question. Gosh. My guess is it
Speaker 3: would move a couple of points towards the Bengals.
Speaker 1: I guess it would be more like the Bills at
Speaker 1: home laying I'd probably put it at laying three. I
Speaker 1: will admit that I don't really know what to make
Speaker 1: of the Bengals at this point, right because I was
Speaker 1: really impressed with what they were able to do in
Speaker 1: Seattle in Week one. Zach Taylor's offense, you know, it
Speaker 1: looked kind of exciting. They're down a green, their offensive
Speaker 1: line is in shambles. That's that's also part of it.
Speaker 1: I don't know if Cordy Glenn is going to be
Speaker 1: able to come back. But then they look terrib terrible
Speaker 1: against the forty nine ers. They couldn't tackle anybody, they
Speaker 1: couldn't move the ball. Well, so I don't really know
Speaker 1: what what do you what would it move in your
Speaker 1: opinion if if you swapped quarterbacks.
Speaker 2: So I would move it three points towards Cincinnati. Yeah,
Speaker 2: we're sorry away sorry wait, wait, towards Buffalo away from Cincinnati,
Speaker 2: really because I am so the other issue. I don't
Speaker 2: want to say issue, but but I think one thing
Speaker 2: that my model does not do is react. One thing
Speaker 2: it does do, I guess is it underreacts to sort
Speaker 2: of quarterbacks in the career. It is very slow to
Speaker 2: react to a guy being good that is a young guy.
Speaker 2: So it because there are so many guys that you
Speaker 2: have a few good games at the start of the
Speaker 2: career and don't end up doing that much. And it
Speaker 2: does if like this is kind of what the data
Speaker 2: bears out. And so a guy like Baker Mayfield, who
Speaker 2: everybody was crowning, like, you know, thinking, was this guy
Speaker 2: that had a chance to coettend for MVP and you know,
Speaker 2: lead Cleveland to the playoffs and possibly Super Bowl this year.
Speaker 2: You know, I still have him his a league average
Speaker 2: quarterback basically, you know, And so I have Josh Allen.
Speaker 2: I think Josh Allen, you know, he was what top
Speaker 2: ten pick overall, but he Dalton has a track record,
Speaker 2: I guess I should say a track record of mediocrity.
Speaker 2: But I still have him as above league above an
Speaker 2: above league average quarterback somehow, which is kind of why
Speaker 2: I hate Cincinnati, because I'm like, there's no way he's
Speaker 2: an above average quarterback. It doesn't feel like he is.
Speaker 2: But he also is on the Bengals, and they tend
Speaker 2: to kind of be very frugal with their money and
Speaker 2: not really spend on players.
Speaker 1: And sure, what do you what do you think about
Speaker 1: Bill's lang six? I mean, what's your gut reaction to that?
Speaker 2: I took Cincinnati plus six?
Speaker 3: Okay, all right, so I.
Speaker 2: Think Cincinnati, for you know, one thing they do have
Speaker 2: in general is a lot of continuity on their team
Speaker 2: from last year. There's not a lot of roster turnover.
Speaker 2: And the Bills do have a lot of roster turnover,
Speaker 2: which you know, a lot of that is a good
Speaker 2: roster turnover, I should say, it's not guys leaving that
Speaker 2: you do did They did lose Lashawn McCoy, but running
Speaker 2: backs don't really matter very much. That is basically no
Speaker 2: down grade there. But they brought in some players that
Speaker 2: they thought are gonna help improve them on the offensive line,
Speaker 2: a wide receiver for example. Whereas the Bengals had a
Speaker 2: lot of continuity and they had a very bad offensive
Speaker 2: line last year. They their offensive line graded out like horrendously,
Speaker 2: and it's this is kind of one of those regression
Speaker 2: in the mean things. It's like, well, this is a
Speaker 2: professional franchise, is offensive line like it. It can't be
Speaker 2: it can't be any worse, and it should be better
Speaker 2: just due to like randomness, just due to like you know,
Speaker 2: it is hard to be that bad back to back years,
Speaker 2: that type of thing.
Speaker 1: So all right, well, I mean, look, I'll be honest,
Speaker 1: I did not have a strong reaction to this. I
Speaker 1: don't really know what you're supposed to do this. I
Speaker 1: lean Cincinnati at Bill's lank six, but you feel much
Speaker 1: stronger that probably the spread would have been much more
Speaker 1: fair if it were lower and closer to Cincinnati, which
Speaker 1: I think is fair. I think that the public is
Speaker 1: probably going to be on the Bills, because I think
Speaker 1: the public used things rather sort of simply as the
Speaker 1: Bills kind of looking relatively good in the opening, and
Speaker 1: they'll have that taste of watching Cincinnati get destroyed by
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. But I agree it's at least
Speaker 1: something that should be much closer. I don't know whether
Speaker 1: or not the spread's going to move, but I think
Speaker 1: if you can early go in, if you can get
Speaker 1: in on Cincinnati, that probably makes sense. Let's move on
Speaker 1: to my Jets at the Patriots. Patriots are currently laying
Speaker 1: eighteen and a half. Look, this was at seventeen at
Speaker 1: one point when I checked yesterday. I think it may
Speaker 1: have opened at thirteen or something like that. The over
Speaker 1: under was at forty six.
Speaker 3: And a half.
Speaker 1: It was at forty eight now my guess. Although I mean,
Speaker 1: the Jets looked terrible while Trevor Simon was throwing the ball,
Speaker 1: but with Luke Faw, I can't imagine that the spread
Speaker 1: is just going to hang out here at eighteen and
Speaker 1: a half. I've got to think that it's probably going
Speaker 1: to move to at least twenty. When you're dealing with
Speaker 1: a guy who's basically never played quarterback in the NFL.
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, I think it's gonna go up a little bit.
Speaker 2: I didn't. I showed maybe a touch of value towards
Speaker 2: the Jets with Simeon, but not much. I made it
Speaker 2: right around sixteen. Okay, And you know I'm not following
Speaker 2: the game very closely. Right now, with twenty three to
Speaker 2: three in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 3: You're lucky.
Speaker 1: You're just consider yourself lucky. It's it's not pretty.
Speaker 2: The Jets are not going to improve from this. So
Speaker 2: and I think that the narratives, I mean, I think
Speaker 2: I think that line is going to get driven up
Speaker 2: largely by this narrative of the Patriots being this unstoppable
Speaker 2: force and the Jets, you know, zero to two and
Speaker 2: with their third string quarterback, like, I think it could
Speaker 2: get up there on Miami Dallas territory.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I think.
Speaker 1: And we'll get to that in a minute, which right
Speaker 1: now is at twenty one sitting here, unless it's continuing
Speaker 1: to move. But I agree, if you wake up and
Speaker 1: you see it still at eighteen and a half, I
Speaker 1: personally would have zero problems. If you've seen it's gonna move.
Speaker 1: I mean, the Jets look abysmal. They are down some
Speaker 1: key players, on defense right now, but it's really not
Speaker 1: gonna make a difference. They're not gonna be able to
Speaker 1: move the ball very well, regardless of who's a quarterback
Speaker 1: if it's not Darnold against the strong Patriots defense. So
Speaker 1: to the extent you can get in on at walle
Speaker 1: it's at eighteen and a half, I would go ahead
Speaker 1: and make that move personally. Now before we move on,
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Speaker 1: let's move on to the Lions at the Eagles. Here,
Speaker 1: the Eagles are currently laying seven. It was at seven
Speaker 1: and a half and the over under is at forty
Speaker 1: eight and it was at forty nine and a half.
Speaker 1: My guess is that this download movement is most likely
Speaker 1: because of the injuries that the Eagles sustained last night.
Speaker 1: Both the Shawn Jackson and al Seon Jeffrey missed pretty
Speaker 1: much the entirety of last night's game against the Falcons Dallas.
Speaker 1: Goottard was out there, just devastated by injuries. So right now, though,
Speaker 1: looking at it, you know, those guys are both questionable.
Speaker 1: Sounds like DeShawn may play Nato Sharron al Sean. The
Speaker 1: Eagles are laying seven and the over under is at
Speaker 1: forty eight lines at the Eagles, what do you think?
Speaker 2: I like the Lions here? Their defense his you know,
Speaker 2: obviously Matt Patrici gets a bunch of crap. But their
Speaker 2: defense has been impressive so far this year. You know,
Speaker 2: they haven't they haven't played world beaters exactly. They had
Speaker 2: faced rookie Kyler Murray and played a really good half
Speaker 2: and then let them back into it. And but the Chargers, actually,
Speaker 2: the Chargers are a good team. Although I tend to
Speaker 2: think that, you know, Philip Rivers at some point is
Speaker 2: we're going to see some kind of big decline, although
Speaker 2: I hope not because I managed to be stuck with
Speaker 2: him on my fantasy football team. No, the Lions defense,
Speaker 2: I was surprised at how good they've played so far
Speaker 2: this season. There I have them as zero point eight
Speaker 2: points above league average, and I think that that spread
Speaker 2: should be should be closer to a field goal. To
Speaker 2: be honest, I'm not a big believer in the Eagles
Speaker 2: and Carson Wentz and okay, Carson Wentz. It's it's interesting
Speaker 2: because Carson Wentz. I guess it feels like what he's
Speaker 2: been in league three or four years now. But I
Speaker 2: think everybody keeps expecting him to sort of take that
Speaker 2: next step because he showed flat like his first year,
Speaker 2: he showed a bunch of flashes, and he just hasn't
Speaker 2: really taken it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean he's of course, he's battled injuries for
Speaker 1: most of his career. He can uncork some throws. I
Speaker 1: think you know last night too, he was basically getting
Speaker 1: pulled down. He got rid of the ball a split
Speaker 1: second before his knee hit the ground, and he got
Speaker 1: so much on it. It's really impressive that he's able
Speaker 1: to do it. I'm a little more bullish on the Eagles,
Speaker 1: but I do agree that at this point the seven
Speaker 1: points spread I kind of undervalues the Lions. I don't
Speaker 1: necessarily think i'd have a closer to a field goal.
Speaker 1: I think it should be more like six under the
Speaker 1: key number of seven. But you know my initial reaction,
Speaker 1: even on the road, I agree, the Lions have been
Speaker 1: impressive so far. I mean, I think that they should
Speaker 1: have lost against the Chargers. The Chargers kind of gave
Speaker 1: that game away. But I do think that they've been impressive. So,
Speaker 1: you know, some of it may depend on the injuries,
Speaker 1: but I imagine that the spread is going to roughly
Speaker 1: stick right around seven. I could see it maybe dropping
Speaker 1: to six and a half, maybe even six if the
Speaker 1: Eagles continue to battle all the injuries. But it is
Speaker 1: something where I think my initial reaction to it was
Speaker 1: it undervalues the Lions at this point.
Speaker 2: And by the way, I think you're right like the Chargers.
Speaker 2: I have the Chargers in my game grades is half
Speaker 2: a point better than the Lions overall, but the Lion's
Speaker 2: defense was a little bit better.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, this is what the Chargers kind
Speaker 1: of do. And we could break down that game for
Speaker 1: a long time. I mean, you know Austin Eckler fumbling
Speaker 1: as he went into the goal line, and you know
Speaker 1: Rivers throwing a pick at the end zone and missing
Speaker 1: the trying a field goal with a backup kicker instead
Speaker 1: of going forward on fourth, and you know, it was
Speaker 1: just a bunch of things. But I think that the
Speaker 1: Charger should have won that game. But I was impressed
Speaker 1: watching that game with the Lions, in particular their defense
Speaker 1: and they have weapons on offense.
Speaker 3: You know, T J.
Speaker 1: Hockinson didn't do anything yesterday, but he is a big presence.
Speaker 1: Kenny Galladay is still good. Kerry On Johnson can still
Speaker 1: get it done. Marvin Jones is kind of underrated. He
Speaker 1: hasn't been that involved yet. So they've got a lot
Speaker 1: of weapons that they can do. So I do think
Speaker 1: that if it stays at a touchdown, I will like
Speaker 1: the Lions probably here, but I wouldn't be surprised to
Speaker 1: see dropped just a bit. Let's move on to the
Speaker 1: Raiders at the Vikings. The Vikings here are laying eight
Speaker 1: and a half and the over under is at forty
Speaker 1: two and a half. Now, this originally opened from what
Speaker 1: I saw, it was at seven and a half, so
Speaker 1: it's moved about a point in favor of the Vikings.
Speaker 1: I don't know whether or not that's a reaction to
Speaker 1: the Raiders coming down to Earth a little bit against
Speaker 1: the Chiefs yesterday, although that's probably a little unfair. They
Speaker 1: are dealing with some injuries here. Tyrell Williams and Josh
Speaker 1: Jacobs are both banged up a little bit. I haven't
Speaker 1: seen anything that suggests that their availability is in question
Speaker 1: at this point. But how do you feel about the
Speaker 1: Raiders at the vikings? The Vikings currently eight and a
Speaker 1: half with an over under of forty two and a half.
Speaker 2: You know, I don't have a strong opinion there. I
Speaker 2: make the line right around six and a half, so
Speaker 2: it's not big enough spread for me at this point
Speaker 2: to take it. And regarding the injuries though, I think
Speaker 2: that the running backs and wide receivers, it feels like
Speaker 2: those are the injuries we notice the most. But at
Speaker 2: the same time, those are the you know, my numbers
Speaker 2: have shown those are kind of the least important positions,
Speaker 2: meaning they're sort of the most replaceable.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and so I mean, offensive line's got to move
Speaker 1: it much more than that, right, I don't know.
Speaker 2: If it moves the line more, but it should for sure.
Speaker 3: We'll talk about in a bit. Of course.
Speaker 1: You've got two major quarterback injuries that we're going to
Speaker 1: talk about, and the impact of the lines, which I'll
Speaker 1: really want to pick your brain on a little bit
Speaker 1: is vastly different. I mean, the movement in what happened
Speaker 1: to the line with the Saints versus what happened with
Speaker 1: the Steelers pretty different there, So we will talk about that,
Speaker 1: But in terms of this game, I completely agree. I
Speaker 1: just you know, what I do was when I look
Speaker 1: at the line, I try to project the lines necessarily,
Speaker 1: and when I look at it, I just I just
Speaker 1: did not have a strong feeling on this. I don't
Speaker 1: necessarily know if it's gonna move anywhere. I think eight
Speaker 1: and a half. I don't think it's getting back down
Speaker 1: to seven or anything close to that. But it struck
Speaker 1: me as just right around kind of where it needed
Speaker 1: to be. I don't really have a strong feeling on that.
Speaker 1: So we'll see if it moves during the week, but
Speaker 1: for right now, I'm not all that excited about it.
Speaker 1: Let's move to the Dolphins at the Cowboys here. You
Speaker 1: referenced it earlier. The Cowboys are currently laying twenty one points.
Speaker 1: I believe it opened at sixteen and a half, so
Speaker 1: it moved quite a bit. The over under is forty
Speaker 1: seven and a half now. A couple of updates here.
Speaker 1: I mean we've seen the Cowboys look very good on offense.
Speaker 1: Of course, so far, we've seen the Dolphins look abysmal
Speaker 1: and pretty much every facet of the game we mentioned
Speaker 1: what makes a difference necessarily in the line. So neither
Speaker 1: one of these things will probably move it either way.
Speaker 1: But there is no Michael Gallup in this one. He
Speaker 1: sustained a minor injury to his meniscus, so he's gonna
Speaker 1: miss two to four weeks, including this game and tonight.
Speaker 1: Right before we recorded, the Dolphins traded Minka Fitzpatrick to
Speaker 1: the Steelers for first rounder. How do you handle generally
Speaker 1: these giant lines that we're saying now with basically, you know,
Speaker 1: whenever the Dolphins play, I mean, what do you do
Speaker 1: with a line that's twenty one?
Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting because my model, I'll be the
Speaker 2: first of men, I'm not the best of dealing with
Speaker 2: outliers because I'd rather be good at predicting most of
Speaker 2: the games and miss on a few than set up
Speaker 2: a model to sort of handle a few really well
Speaker 2: and then not be less accurate on most. I guess
Speaker 2: it's not like I'm It's not like I'm on Wall
Speaker 2: Street and leveraging my taking these huge leverage positions, and
Speaker 2: if I'm not getting the parameter uncertainty modeled correctly, I'm
Speaker 2: going to lose everything on one bet. Right, I'm allocating
Speaker 2: a specific amount on each bet, so no one bet
Speaker 2: is going to really kill me. So with that said,
Speaker 2: I think that we tend to I found at least
Speaker 2: and this isn't in the NFL per se, but in
Speaker 2: other sports like baseball, I found that overall, the truly
Speaker 2: extreme teams I do tend to be to miss on
Speaker 2: a little bit, like I'm too high on the extreme
Speaker 2: bad teams and too well on the extreme good teams,
Speaker 2: the teams that end up being that truly extreme outlier team.
Speaker 2: But the funny thing is there the market thinks that
Speaker 2: there are more true extreme teams than there actually are.
Speaker 2: We're too quick, the public is too quick to say, yes,
Speaker 2: this team is an outlier, this team is really really
Speaker 2: like extreme good or really really extreme bad. So it
Speaker 2: does seem right now like the Dolphins are an extreme
Speaker 2: bad team, but they've played two really good teams so far,
Speaker 2: and they do have a team of professionals that were
Speaker 2: mostly drafted in the NFL Draft. They have a coach
Speaker 2: who has experience. Well it's his first time as an
Speaker 2: NFL head coach. But but you know they have a
Speaker 2: coaching staff with people that have coached before. These are
Speaker 2: they would still beat any college team by a mile.
Speaker 2: And so you know, they they did play like I
Speaker 2: have game grades, and they played fundamentally. They were forty
Speaker 2: points worse than New England last week.
Speaker 4: So but but you know, I'm I will be on
Speaker 4: Miami here and I actually took some at twenty one
Speaker 4: and a half earlier today.
Speaker 2: If it goes higher, I will take some more. I
Speaker 2: just I just think, like, how can it possibly be
Speaker 2: that high? Like my my numbers I have it as
Speaker 2: a fifteen point spread, so and I know that's too low,
Speaker 2: but yeah, I don't truly believe it should be twenty
Speaker 2: one and a half points. You don't have Luke falk Is,
Speaker 2: the is the Dolphins quarterback. You actually have someone serviceable
Speaker 2: who has played very well at times in his career
Speaker 2: in Ryan Fitzpatrick, although he's not played very well this year,
Speaker 2: and so like this is a team of professional football players.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I get it. If you take another shot at
Speaker 1: the Jets. By the way I'm ending the podcast, I'm
Speaker 1: I'm just laying that out there right now. Okay, you
Speaker 1: Luke Fox is like the best thing that's happened to
Speaker 1: the Jets season so far.
Speaker 3: So for me, I don't know. I don't know how
Speaker 3: you do.
Speaker 1: I mean, historically, teams that are favored by twenty plus
Speaker 1: points I don't believe have fared particularly well. But I
Speaker 1: don't know how to analyze this. I'm not kidding, like,
Speaker 1: I don't want any piece of it. Everything to me
Speaker 1: is like twenty one. You got to take the Dolphins
Speaker 1: at this point. But watching them, it's just futility at
Speaker 1: its best. And I know they are a professional sports team,
Speaker 1: and you make all the right points, and when I
Speaker 1: analyze it, yeah, I think, you know what, the Dolphins
Speaker 1: here have value at this number. But it's something where
Speaker 1: I personally, I just can't get in on it. I
Speaker 1: just for me, it's a stay.
Speaker 3: Away, you know. I can't imagine if it got.
Speaker 1: To like twenty four, I'd probably be for us too,
Speaker 1: But it's not gonna get there, I don't think and
Speaker 1: either for now, I think i'd probably just avoid.
Speaker 2: So what do you think is the square? Like, do
Speaker 2: you think that the what is the quote unquote sharp
Speaker 2: side here?
Speaker 1: I mean, I I well, the sharp side was on
Speaker 1: the Dolphins against the Patriots, right, I mean they got
Speaker 1: I believe, a lot of money in once that number
Speaker 1: started creeping up towards you know, wherever it eventually ended up.
Speaker 1: My guess is the sharps are going to be on
Speaker 1: the Dolphins at twenty one or twenty one and a
Speaker 1: half because they're going to see value in it. For me,
Speaker 1: there are some things and the same thing and this
Speaker 1: is going to be simplistic, but I'm going to be
Speaker 1: honest about it. It's the same thing with Mahomes. It's
Speaker 1: very difficult for me when I look at a spread
Speaker 1: and I look at something and I say, this is
Speaker 1: what I think it should be because I think sometimes
Speaker 1: with a guy like Mahomes and what he is doing,
Speaker 1: and with a team like the Dolphins at this point,
Speaker 1: it kind of makes me want to throw sort of
Speaker 1: everything that I have out the window and just kind
Speaker 1: of not get involved. I know that that's not the
Speaker 1: way you need.
Speaker 3: To be doing things.
Speaker 1: You need to be you know, essentially analyzing it and
Speaker 1: taking the position that you think best represents where you
Speaker 1: need to be. But for me, looking at I just
Speaker 1: I can't I can't take the value that I see
Speaker 1: on the Dolphins because I really am concerned that this
Speaker 1: could be that outlier season where every spread is going
Speaker 1: to be twenty and above except when they play the Jets,
Speaker 1: and it's going to be warranted.
Speaker 2: It could be, but I mean, look at this. I mean,
Speaker 2: you have Dallas that started to and O the Dolphins
Speaker 2: have started owing to. The Dolphins have been outscored by
Speaker 2: what almost an is it a hundred points? Right around
Speaker 2: one hundred points ninety something?
Speaker 3: Yeah about that, yes.
Speaker 2: And the Cowboys have you know, two convincing wins against
Speaker 2: two really bad football teams, and so I sort of
Speaker 2: think that there's this whole I mean, I think the
Speaker 2: narratives are really pushing the Cowboys up there, and there
Speaker 2: is going to be like when you see outlier performances,
Speaker 2: you know, luck is generally a contributing factor in some
Speaker 2: way most of the time. So I think they will
Speaker 2: come back down to earth a little bit. I mean,
Speaker 2: you're not going to have Fitzpatrick is gonna throw two
Speaker 2: picks sixes every game.
Speaker 1: Well, you know, he did play for the Jets, and
Speaker 1: I've seen him do it. Well, maybe not every game,
Speaker 1: but yeah, now I understand everything you're saying.
Speaker 3: I really do.
Speaker 1: It's just something at this point that I really it's
Speaker 1: not something that I'm willing to jump in on. Let's
Speaker 1: move on here, because we spend a lot of time
Speaker 1: in that game. To the Giants at the Bucks. The
Speaker 1: Bucks are currently laying six and a half and the
Speaker 1: over under is at forty eight. Pat Summer is not
Speaker 1: naming a QB at this point, so we don't know
Speaker 1: necessarily whether Eli Manning is going to be under center.
Speaker 1: The Giants look terrible. What's your reaction here? Bucks laying
Speaker 1: six and a half over under at forty eight.
Speaker 2: I mean, there's no reason the Giants should be playing
Speaker 2: Eli Manning at this point. He's basically had a three
Speaker 2: year farewell tour in New York and you know that
Speaker 2: team is going nowhere. But as much as it pains
Speaker 2: me to say it, I still think there's a little
Speaker 2: value there on the Giants. If you can get plus seven.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, what about six and a half? Are you
Speaker 3: in on them?
Speaker 2: I already got in at plus seven, okay for a
Speaker 2: little bit, plus seven, Lanye minus one, sixteen, Yeah, my numbers,
Speaker 2: My numbers actually do still like the Giants at six
Speaker 2: and a half eight to say it, but.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I look, the early money that's coming in is
Speaker 1: heavily on the Giants, so I don't think you're alone there.
Speaker 1: Now the spread has moved up from where it was.
Speaker 1: Originally it was five and a half, it went to
Speaker 1: six and a half. I think you kind of got
Speaker 1: to wait here because we don't really know who's going
Speaker 1: to be under center, and it's kind of hard to
Speaker 1: make that move.
Speaker 3: If it is.
Speaker 1: Eli, Yeah, I mean if I can get it at
Speaker 1: a touchdown, I'd get in on it. Once it gets
Speaker 1: below the key number, it's a little nerve wracking, but
Speaker 1: we'll need to see where it goes. But I do
Speaker 1: think if there is value on a team right now,
Speaker 1: it is on the Giants.
Speaker 2: Wait. And as much as it pains me to say it,
Speaker 2: if Daniel Jones is in a quarterback that, I mean
Speaker 2: that hurts the Giants in the short term. Yeah, it
Speaker 2: hurts up for the game, but I think it's better
Speaker 2: for the franchise.
Speaker 1: I think we can be in full agreement that they
Speaker 1: Eli should not be the starting quarterback for the Giants
Speaker 1: right now. The impact on this exact game would probably
Speaker 1: be negative for them. I agree, let's move on to
Speaker 1: the Panthers at the Cardinals. Panthers here are laying two
Speaker 1: and a half. Now, this was at three and a half,
Speaker 1: so they've moved it down closer towards the Cardinals. The
Speaker 1: over under has moved to forty six and a half.
Speaker 1: It was at forty four. I mean, the Panthers have
Speaker 1: not looked good. Cam hasn't looked good. They do get
Speaker 1: extra time to prepare here. So what's your reaction to
Speaker 1: Panthers laying two and a half over under at forty
Speaker 1: six and a half.
Speaker 2: You're right that that extra time to prepare is worth something.
Speaker 2: I actually, I don't have an opinion. I make the
Speaker 2: Panthers a little over three point favorite, so no opinion there.
Speaker 2: And the Panthers have looked bad, but again it's only
Speaker 2: two games and they're against a you know, Arizona team
Speaker 2: that's in full rebuild mode with you know, a ton
Speaker 2: of inexperienced players on defense and a rookie quarterback and
Speaker 2: a coach that got fired at Texas Tech.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm I'm personally I'm a little surprised this
Speaker 1: move below three given the extra time off. I really
Speaker 1: I think they're going to come out, and I think
Speaker 1: if you can get it below three, I would take
Speaker 1: that any day of the week. I realized that they're
Speaker 1: on the road, but I do think that the extra
Speaker 1: time to prepare the Cardinals have all sorts of problems.
Speaker 3: On defense.
Speaker 1: I realized Murray and the offense looked a bit more competent,
Speaker 1: although they couldn't really get in the end zone against Baltimore.
Speaker 1: But I love to me the early thing here, and
Speaker 1: especially it opened above the key number of three. It
Speaker 1: opened at three and a half, and the fact that
Speaker 1: it's moved to two and a half, you know, regardless
Speaker 1: of what that means, I personally like it if you
Speaker 1: can get the Panthers below that key number. Before we
Speaker 1: get into our last few games. I do want to
Speaker 1: remind everyone that we are giving away and autographed Alvin
Speaker 1: Kamara helmet this month. To be entered into the contest,
Speaker 1: all you need to do is leave a review for
Speaker 1: the podcast on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot
Speaker 1: of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. And
Speaker 1: if you entered last month's contest and did not win,
Speaker 1: then you are automatically entered this month, So no need
Speaker 1: to worry about that, all right, Let's move on to
Speaker 1: these Steelers at the forty nine ers. Now, of course,
Speaker 1: this has all gone crazy since Roethlisberger got injured. It
Speaker 1: opened at the Steelers laying a point and a half,
Speaker 1: It is currently at the forty nine Ers laying seven.
Speaker 3: To me.
Speaker 1: I don't know that seems like a crazy move, as
Speaker 1: some of it could be due to the fact that
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers looked very good dismantling the Bengals
Speaker 1: on Sunday.
Speaker 3: But I mean that's a huge move for quarterback.
Speaker 1: I get that Mason Rudolph, you know, doesn't have experience,
Speaker 1: but he looked competent against the SIAXO. I mean, how
Speaker 1: do he analyze and what's a reaction to forty nine
Speaker 1: ers laying seven to the Steelers in the over under
Speaker 1: at forty four and a half.
Speaker 2: You're right, Rudolph has looked confident. And I know the
Speaker 2: sort of common perception here is that Bridgewater is not
Speaker 2: nearly as big a downgrade for the Saints as Rudolph
Speaker 2: is for the Steelers. But but my numbers kind of
Speaker 2: agree with that perception. I think that I think that
Speaker 2: that move is entirely warranted and it's I made the
Speaker 2: line actually minus seven point eight, so I think.
Speaker 1: Really, yeah, I'm honestly, I'm surprised that I don't want
Speaker 1: to be buying too much into what I saw yesterday.
Speaker 1: Of course, Bridgewaters it's different. He's been in the system
Speaker 1: for several years, although Rudolph obviously has a little time there,
Speaker 1: and Bridgewater has been a competent NFL could be, of course,
Speaker 1: But I mean eight and a half.
Speaker 3: You know that that is a huge move to me.
Speaker 1: I'm not even saying that I think you need to
Speaker 1: jump on the Steelers or anything like that. I do
Speaker 1: think that the forty nine Ers are a decent team,
Speaker 1: better than people expected them to be. But that seemed
Speaker 1: like a huge move. But it sounds like you're right
Speaker 1: there and you think that the move was pretty much
Speaker 1: right and you think it's probably that's probably where it'll
Speaker 1: end up, right right around seven.
Speaker 2: Having I mean, quarterback is the most important position in
Speaker 2: the NFL by mile, and if you know it's your
Speaker 2: quarterback is just as important as the ten other players
Speaker 2: on offense combined. So that that's the reason for the
Speaker 2: move right there. And it all comes down to what
Speaker 2: you think of Mason Rudolph and a guy that hasn't
Speaker 2: you know me, did he have one start? I mean
Speaker 2: he's had some, he's had a little bit of sporadic
Speaker 2: playing time, but you know, a guy like just the
Speaker 2: track record of guys with zero one starts just is
Speaker 2: not very good.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean it's uns it's fair, it's fair to
Speaker 1: the NFL. Just it struck me as again, I mean,
Speaker 1: I know, quarterback of course the most important, of course,
Speaker 1: but especially we're going to see the number on breeze
Speaker 1: and it's a different it's Bridgewater, and he certainly has
Speaker 1: experienced and he certainly looked competent in his career, but
Speaker 1: I mean it's a much smaller move, which we'll get
Speaker 1: to in a second. But you're saying that's totally warranted,
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with you. That's totally fine. Forty
Speaker 1: nine ers laying seven, So my guess is that's probably
Speaker 1: around where it's going to be. It's a tough game,
Speaker 1: of course, to handicap, because we just we don't have
Speaker 1: that much data on Rudolph. It's more of sort of
Speaker 1: the analytical of what do you think when you lose
Speaker 1: someone like Roethlisberger to somebody who you really don't have
Speaker 1: much sort of tape on and anything like that in
Speaker 1: the NFL.
Speaker 2: So, and to your point though about the forty nine
Speaker 2: Ers dismantling the Bengals, they had they were the second
Speaker 2: highest rated team and for my game grades last week
Speaker 2: and actually had a ninety ninth centile game, meaning literally
Speaker 2: it's better than one. You know, it's top one percent
Speaker 2: of games, so they would have been basically, the Patriots
Speaker 2: were plus eighteen. The nine Ers were a plus sixteen,
Speaker 2: so that you know their offense, and their offense had
Speaker 2: far and away the best week of any offense in
Speaker 2: the NFL. So there is a bit of an adjustment there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I agree, and that that does make a
Speaker 1: little more sense than it's not purely eight and a
Speaker 1: half based purely on the downgrade to Rootolph, although I
Speaker 1: mean it, maybe it's warranted basically what you're saying, but
Speaker 1: the forty nine as certainly their stock improved greatly with
Speaker 1: the win over the Bengals. Let's move on to the
Speaker 1: Texans at the Chargers. The Chargers here are laying three
Speaker 1: and a half, it's moved from three and the over
Speaker 1: under is at forty seven and a half. I'm a
Speaker 1: little surprised it got passed three and it moved up.
Speaker 1: I mean, it strikes me as they're being value on
Speaker 1: the Texans there. But what are your thoughts? Chargers laying
Speaker 1: three and a half over under at forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half, So I.
Speaker 2: Have no opinion on this game. If anything, I lean
Speaker 2: towards the charge there. I have them as close to
Speaker 2: a four point favorite.
Speaker 1: Okay, interesting, I mean for me, this is about where
Speaker 1: it should be. I would would have thought that it
Speaker 1: would have been at three, exactly which it was, which
Speaker 1: had opened up. But I guess you know, they got
Speaker 1: probably some money in on the charters.
Speaker 3: I'm fine.
Speaker 1: I mean that the Texans certainly didn't look great this
Speaker 1: past week. I think that's a little bit more about
Speaker 1: the strength of the Jaguars defense, despite how they looked
Speaker 1: against the Chiefs in the opening week. And I'm a
Speaker 1: little bit more bullish on the Texans, and I've basically
Speaker 1: talked about it all preseason. I like them overall as
Speaker 1: a team. But you're saying this is about where it
Speaker 1: needs to be and there's no real value on either side, right.
Speaker 2: Right, And when you talk about the line opening and
Speaker 2: like it being bet one way, like initially on Sunday night.
Speaker 2: I don't think most people realize how little money it
Speaker 2: actually takes to move an opening line. There could be
Speaker 2: a few thousand dollars bet offshore and move and suddenly
Speaker 2: a line goes from two and a half to three,
Speaker 2: you know, yeah, from five and a half to six
Speaker 2: and a half, and it's yeah, the market is not
Speaker 2: particularly deep on a on a Sunday night with an opener,
Speaker 2: and it's not in general. I mean, there are easy
Speaker 2: ways to move the market if you bet at particular
Speaker 2: books like Pinnacle and bed Chris, like the entire market's
Speaker 2: gonna copy. And that doesn't mean the Pinnacle and Chris
Speaker 2: are taking the biggest limits.
Speaker 3: They're not sure.
Speaker 2: So it's easy to draw on artors. But some moves,
Speaker 2: some of these moves are gonna be real moves. Some
Speaker 2: of these moves are someone that doesn't have a huge
Speaker 2: bankroll and they can get down and they say, you
Speaker 2: know what, I can get my thousand dollars in here
Speaker 2: and I'm happy with that. And other people are saying, okay,
Speaker 2: I can dumb you this and get a better every
Speaker 2: place copy is the move and I get a better price.
Speaker 3: So no, absolutely.
Speaker 1: And look, there are a lot of times where books
Speaker 1: open up and they're probably right in between numbers. They're
Speaker 1: debating between three and three and a half, and even
Speaker 1: the slightest bit of money can probably make that difference
Speaker 1: right off the bat. Let's move on to another interesting
Speaker 1: game we just talked about it, the Saints at the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: This opened at the Seahawks minus one when Breeze was healthy,
Speaker 1: and it's now the Seahawks laying four and a half.
Speaker 1: So in comparison to the Steelers game, this is a
Speaker 1: three and a half point move here with the spread
Speaker 1: and the total is now at forty five and a
Speaker 1: half it opened at fifty. I personally love this line.
Speaker 1: I think this is right where it needs to be.
Speaker 1: That's exactly what has struck me at with Bridgewater starting.
Speaker 1: But i'd loved aari your opinion on that Seahawks laying
Speaker 1: four and a half and a forty five and a
Speaker 1: half total, I basically agree.
Speaker 2: I make it minus five point two.
Speaker 1: Yep, this is it's a perfect line. It's a perfect line.
Speaker 1: I don't think this is going to move whatsoever. I
Speaker 1: think it's going to stay at four and a half.
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be bet pretty evenly on
Speaker 1: both sides, you know, I feel like, casually like and
Speaker 1: we were just talking about quarterbacks. I feel like when
Speaker 1: you think about, you know, downgrading from Breeze sort of,
Speaker 1: you know, it just it seemed like it should be
Speaker 1: worth more than three and a half points, but we
Speaker 1: talked about it. I mean, Bridgewater is a competent QB.
Speaker 1: He's been in that system. He'll have a whole week
Speaker 1: to prepare. And I don't think given how the Bengals
Speaker 1: performed in Seattle in the opening week, I don't think
Speaker 1: necessarily that home field advantage. I don't think Seattle is
Speaker 1: quite as good, you know, as they necessarily team. They
Speaker 1: easily could have lost both the first two games. So
Speaker 1: I think I don't think there's too much for us
Speaker 1: to saund at this point. I think we both agree
Speaker 1: that the lines are right about where they need to be. Right.
Speaker 3: Yep, wonderful.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Rams at the Browns. The
Speaker 1: Rams here are laying three and the over under is
Speaker 1: fifty one. We were recording this as the Jets Browns
Speaker 1: game was going on. The Browns won big, but their
Speaker 1: offense really did not look good. Their defense look good,
Speaker 1: but I don't think you can really draw that many
Speaker 1: conclusions given that it was against the Jets with their
Speaker 1: third string quarterback and a pretty poor offensive line. So
Speaker 1: for me, when it was at two and a half,
Speaker 1: I mean, I loved the Rams here. I still like.
Speaker 3: Them laying three even though it's at.
Speaker 2: It's not going to stay three.
Speaker 1: It's going to move right, It's going to move pretty
Speaker 1: significantly towards the Rams.
Speaker 2: Oh wait, actually, oh sorry, I think I was actually
Speaker 2: not thick when I said that, because you said it was.
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know what, like, I don't think
Speaker 2: there's any place with the line up right now because
Speaker 2: the game's going on.
Speaker 1: But yeah, well, I mean it's it's well, all right,
Speaker 1: where do you think it's going to Because to me,
Speaker 1: I think it's going to move, especially after this game,
Speaker 1: I think it's going to move pretty towards the Rams.
Speaker 2: Yeah, ras I would have. I would think just based
Speaker 2: on the fact that Cleveland is I assume I have
Speaker 2: not watched the game, as as you'll.
Speaker 1: Know, I was at bowling league, so rushing it at
Speaker 1: bowling exactly.
Speaker 2: So I don't know how well Cleveland actually played in
Speaker 2: winning twenty three to three, but I would have given
Speaker 2: they won twenty three to three. I would think that
Speaker 2: they probably played better than expected.
Speaker 1: They didn't, I'm not all right. So honestly, you weren't watching,
Speaker 1: they didn't. I mean they scored, you know, one of
Speaker 1: the touchdowns was just a ninety yard sort of short
Speaker 1: slant and run by Odell Beckham. Baker Mayfield did not
Speaker 1: look good throughout the game. They really didn't. I think
Speaker 1: if you watch that game, you do not come away
Speaker 1: impressed with the Browns. But regardless, what would one performance.
Speaker 1: I guess this early move the line that much because
Speaker 1: to me, Rams laying three seemed too.
Speaker 3: Light, just that the look ahead spread. So I'm going to.
Speaker 1: Expect this to move closer to four, and I would
Speaker 1: get in on it at three personally, you.
Speaker 2: Know, one game, you know, I I don't overreact, but
Speaker 2: like extreme performances can move lines in my opinion, like
Speaker 2: the Ravens Week one game. Really, I think that the
Speaker 2: Ravens rating four points and my numbers maybe a little more.
Speaker 2: I think San Fran their performance against Cincinnati moved on
Speaker 2: three points in my numbers. So right now, going before
Speaker 2: the game, I made it Rams minus four and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's exactly where. I don't think that this game
Speaker 1: is necessarily going to move it that much. I don't
Speaker 1: think people are going to look and be like, oh
Speaker 1: my god, the Browns are terrible, but they're certainly not
Speaker 1: going to look at it and be like, wow, I
Speaker 1: gotta give the Browns more credit here. To me, it
Speaker 1: was much more about the fact that, yeah, four, four
Speaker 1: and a half, that's where I think it should be,
Speaker 1: and I think that's where it's probably going to go
Speaker 1: in the end.
Speaker 3: I could be wrong.
Speaker 1: It opened it two and a half, which shocked me,
Speaker 1: so I would still get in on it even at
Speaker 1: the key number three, and I think it's going to.
Speaker 3: Move probably a little more. But we will see what.
Speaker 1: The reaction is here after this Monday night game. Let's
Speaker 1: go to our final game, Bears at your Redskins. The
Speaker 1: Bears are laying four and the over under is at
Speaker 1: forty two.
Speaker 3: What do you think here?
Speaker 2: I will not have a play on this game. I
Speaker 2: make it right around two and a half, but the
Speaker 2: Redskins do. I haven't gone through and finalized my snapcount
Speaker 2: projections and everything for a player model, and the Redskins
Speaker 2: do have some injuries in their defense a secondary and
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna stay away from this, at least at
Speaker 2: the current price.
Speaker 3: I agree.
Speaker 1: I don't think this is a game that you can
Speaker 1: really touch because I don't think that it's I think
Speaker 1: the Redskins have impressed me a little bit, just because
Speaker 1: I really think I expected them to look more like
Speaker 1: the Giants, and they've certainly been a little better in
Speaker 1: the early going, at least from the eye test. And
Speaker 1: the Bears, I really just don't know. At some point
Speaker 1: they're gonna have to do something with the offense because
Speaker 1: Mitchell Trubisky looks terrible. It's not creative at this point,
Speaker 1: which is surprising being it's Matt Naggi. But at the
Speaker 1: Bear's laying four, it's just not something. It's not something
Speaker 1: where I would have a great feel for, no matter
Speaker 1: what really happened to it. And the over under at
Speaker 1: forty two again it's a round where I would think.
Speaker 1: So for me, this is stay away game. And it
Speaker 1: sounds like you feel the same, right yep, All right,
Speaker 1: my friend, Well that's it. We made it through all
Speaker 1: of them. I'm really glad that you could cut short
Speaker 1: your bowling league a little bit and join me for
Speaker 1: this one.
Speaker 3: You provided a lot of great insight. I hope we
Speaker 3: can do it again.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for having me, Dan, I enjoyed
Speaker 2: it all right.
Speaker 1: Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM.
Speaker 1: Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app and use
Speaker 1: the promo code Harris to get your risk free five
Speaker 1: hundred dollars wager. And don't forget to enter our September
Speaker 1: contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin Kamara helmet.
Speaker 1: Just leave a review for the show on iTunes or
Speaker 1: Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com. We'll be back later this week
Speaker 1: giving some of our best bets for Week three.
Speaker 3: I'll talk to you then. Normally