WEBVTT - NFL Week 3 Game Lines Preview (Ep. 10) 0:00:08.320 --> 0:00:11.000 Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of 0:00:11.039 --> 0:00:14.520 the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. 0:00:14.760 --> 0:00:16.720 I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on 0:00:16.760 --> 0:00:19.840 Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. The good news, we have 0:00:19.920 --> 0:00:23.000 some real actionable information on teams at this point, so 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:25.080 we can analyze the lines with an eye toward what 0:00:25.120 --> 0:00:27.920 we've seen over the last two weeks. The bad news, 0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:31.120 some notable injuries have thrown everything out of whack and 0:00:31.160 --> 0:00:33.720 everything is crazy as we're going to talk about the 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:36.120 differences in the movement in the lines in both the 0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:38.960 Steelers forty nine Ers game as opposed to the Seahawks 0:00:39.000 --> 0:00:42.720 Saints game. Considering the injuries to Ben Roethlisberger Andrew Brees 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:45.320 is really interesting. We'll get to all of that and 0:00:45.440 --> 0:00:48.080 more today. And with me to break everything down is 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:52.040 Rufus Peabody, a professional sports betteran analyst. You can find 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:55.280 his stuff at Massy Peabody Analytics and follow him on 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:58.680 Twitter at Rufus Peabody. Rufus, thanks for joining me. How's 0:00:58.680 --> 0:00:59.639 it going pretty good? 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:00.640 Thanks for having me, Dan. 0:01:01.120 --> 0:01:03.120 I'm gonna pull the curtain back a little bit. We're 0:01:03.160 --> 0:01:05.800 recording this late. We're roughly getting to the fourth quarter 0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:08.360 of the Jets Browns game, and we were late because 0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:11.480 you had a bowling And I just want you to 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:14.679 know that I was telling you. I respect that significantly, 0:01:14.720 --> 0:01:17.520 and that's why I had no problem moving the podcast 0:01:17.560 --> 0:01:20.000 because it is the thing that I'm actually best at 0:01:20.240 --> 0:01:22.000 in life. And we just found out we live like 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:24.120 an hour from each other. So maybe in a couple 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:26.280 of weeks, maybe you and I will talk some sports gambling, 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:28.039 and maybe we'll get together for a nice bowling match. 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:30.240 What he says sounds amazing. So I have to ask, 0:01:30.319 --> 0:01:32.880 what's your highest score ever bowling. 0:01:33.480 --> 0:01:37.160 Two twenty four? It's pretty good, not bad? Right, what 0:01:37.200 --> 0:01:37.480 about you? 0:01:39.440 --> 0:01:41.600 Okay, so we're not really in the same league that 0:01:41.920 --> 0:01:44.200 I get it. I'm gonna I'm going to rescind the 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:47.080 invitation to go bowling, if that's okay with you, because. 0:01:46.840 --> 0:01:48.280 I don't really want to be embarrassed. 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:51.640 Well, I mean, I'm a high variance bowler, so I 0:01:51.680 --> 0:01:53.320 can be really good or really bad. 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:54.800 All right, I'll take it. Then. 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:57.440 Well, anyway, today we're going to go through every over 0:01:57.560 --> 0:02:00.360 under and spread for the week three games. Now, both 0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:02.320 these spreads and the over unders, we're going to be 0:02:02.360 --> 0:02:05.480 using the bettingpros dot Com consensus numbers. That is an 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:08.280 aggregation of the odds that are available on the market, 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:10.240 and as I always note, there are gonna be some 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:13.840 differences at the various sports books, particularly this week with 0:02:13.960 --> 0:02:16.360 all the chaos, so make sure to shop around. But 0:02:16.480 --> 0:02:18.720 for now, just know that when I list any given odds, 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:21.959 they're bettingpros dot Com consenstance ods. All right, my friend, 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:24.600 let us begin with the Thursday night game, the Titans 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:27.360 at the Jaguars. Right now, it's at the Titans laying 0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:30.240 one and the over under at forty. I saw this 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:32.800 opening at spots as the Titans laying two and a half, 0:02:32.840 --> 0:02:34.840 so it has moved a little bit. It is the 0:02:34.880 --> 0:02:37.799 lowest over under of the week, which makes sense. Do 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:40.480 you have any sort of reaction to that line, because 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:42.800 I mean, the minus one, As far as I'm concerned, 0:02:42.880 --> 0:02:44.880 it's pretty irrelevant to me, right, I mean, at that 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:46.440 point it could be the Jaguars minus one. 0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:48.120 It wouldn't really matter, right, right. 0:02:48.160 --> 0:02:51.680 I Mean, you do see more games land on zero 0:02:51.720 --> 0:02:54.120 now with the new overtime rules in the last few years, 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:58.000 but still, I mean, you know that line, frankly, surprised me. 0:02:58.120 --> 0:03:00.120 It surprises me. I think I expected it to a 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:03.520 little higher. I personally like the the Titans that I've 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:07.680 already actually you know, laid that, laid minus one and 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:09.520 have a full position down for me. So I'm not 0:03:09.560 --> 0:03:11.359 going to be adding no matter what at this point. 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:14.960 But you know, I hate I hate being on road favorites. 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:18.040 It just feels wrong. But this line just I think 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:21.280 I'm higher than the market on Tennessee in general. And 0:03:21.360 --> 0:03:24.200 I actually kind of leaned to Jacksonville last week. So 0:03:25.360 --> 0:03:27.440 and I think, you know, Gardner minshe's a bit of 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:29.520 a wild card, and you know, he did not play 0:03:29.520 --> 0:03:33.000 well last week to be quite honest. But I mean 0:03:33.320 --> 0:03:37.960 I still think he's not a huge, huge downgrade from 0:03:38.280 --> 0:03:41.520 you know, from Nick Foles. So you know, I depending 0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:44.000 looking at my team level model, my player level model 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:46.080 like together. I mean, I think the spread should be 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:48.040 right around like four and a half towards the Titans. 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:48.720 What do you think? 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:52.560 Yeah, I mean, the Jaguars kept it close against the 0:03:52.680 --> 0:03:55.160 Texans this past week. They went for two at the end, 0:03:55.240 --> 0:03:57.840 so they easily could have run. There was a report 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:01.800 tonight that Jalen Ramsey wants out and he is requesting 0:04:01.800 --> 0:04:04.320 a trade. I don't really think he's gonna get one 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:07.240 before Thursday, and I don't necessarily know what impact that 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:09.200 would have even if he did. Anyway, I don't think 0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:11.800 cornerbacks necessarily are the type of players who are going 0:04:11.880 --> 0:04:14.760 to move lines like that. But regardless, that just may 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:17.680 indicate that the Jaguars are slipping into a little bit 0:04:17.680 --> 0:04:20.880 of disarray here. So I think favoring the Titans when 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:23.440 it's essentially a pick him is probably the right way 0:04:23.480 --> 0:04:24.920 to go. And I wouldn't be surprised. I mean, it's 0:04:24.920 --> 0:04:26.600 a Thursday game, so there's not that much time, but 0:04:26.640 --> 0:04:28.920 I wouldn't be surprised to see it move a little 0:04:28.920 --> 0:04:31.160 bit more towards the Titans at this point. All right, 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:35.120 Broncos at the Packers. Packers here are laying eight and 0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:37.279 the over under is at forty three and a half. 0:04:37.320 --> 0:04:39.360 This has moved just a tiny bit. It opened from 0:04:39.360 --> 0:04:42.240 what I saw at least yesterday it was at Packers 0:04:42.320 --> 0:04:44.120 laying seven and a half. So it's moved half a 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:46.000 point in favor of the Packers, and the over under 0:04:46.000 --> 0:04:48.640 has moved down from forty four to forty three and 0:04:48.680 --> 0:04:51.480 a half. I mean, two teams with pretty solid defense. 0:04:51.560 --> 0:04:53.880 Is how do you feel overall about that line eight 0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:56.000 Packers laying eight and over under at forty three and 0:04:56.040 --> 0:04:56.360 a half. 0:04:56.360 --> 0:04:58.880 Well, the Packers defense has been kind of like, I mean, 0:04:58.880 --> 0:05:01.280 they've they've they've been really really good the first two games, 0:05:01.279 --> 0:05:04.360 and I don't think we really expected that going into 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:07.000 the season, at least, you know, my numbers didn't, you know, 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:10.560 so my prior on them was not particularly high. And 0:05:10.560 --> 0:05:12.040 at this point we have to remember it's only been 0:05:12.080 --> 0:05:15.359 two games. You know, there's teams that look really good 0:05:15.560 --> 0:05:20.039 and look really bad, and you know, but you know 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:23.520 there's teams that have really good weeks eleven and twelve too, 0:05:23.800 --> 0:05:26.560 but we don't overreact to those because we have this, 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:28.160 you know, we have a lot of games under our 0:05:28.160 --> 0:05:29.880 belt at that point. We don't at this point, so 0:05:30.760 --> 0:05:34.599 I would caution, you know, against overreacting to how green 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:37.520 based defense is played. Like they've played well and there 0:05:37.640 --> 0:05:40.039 is predictive value in that. But at the same time, 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:41.760 it still is only two games, so I think that 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:46.400 you know, I haven't run I don't have my numbers 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:48.080 for the total yet, but you know, if it was 0:05:48.200 --> 0:05:50.920 last week, you know, I would have the total much 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:53.920 higher than the market. So I still think I probably 0:05:54.000 --> 0:05:57.080 will lean over if anything, and I kind of lean 0:05:57.120 --> 0:05:59.080 a little to Denver here too. I don't think that, 0:05:59.440 --> 0:06:02.120 you know, I think Defense is still substantially better than 0:06:02.160 --> 0:06:05.159 the Packers defense, despite you know what we've seen in 0:06:05.480 --> 0:06:09.080 actually by substantially looking at it, now half a point better, 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:13.200 but still that's better. Yeah, and I'm actually kind of 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:15.840 bearish on the on the Packers as a whole, you know, 0:06:16.160 --> 0:06:19.440 which kind of surprisingly, you know, they still have Aaron Rodgers. 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:23.040 He's getting older though he is in a new system. 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:26.200 But uh, you know, I kind of think that that 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:30.600 line might get down to just seven. We'll see, I'm 0:06:30.920 --> 0:06:34.760 planning on I lean towards the Packers, or sorry, I 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:38.000 lean towards the Broncos. So I'm I'm I'm hoping it 0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:39.440 goes up a little bit so I can get a 0:06:39.440 --> 0:06:44.159 better price on Denver. But my guess is it'll, you know, 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:46.800 close at seven. That's if I had guess. 0:06:46.880 --> 0:06:50.320 Yeah, this strikes me as something where the public and 0:06:50.360 --> 0:06:51.960 the sharp betters are going to be a little split. 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:54.080 I think that the public is going to look at 0:06:54.120 --> 0:06:56.760 the Broncos and kind of be like the Broncos stink, 0:06:56.880 --> 0:06:58.400 and they're going to look at the Packers and be like, 0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:00.640 the Packers are great, and they have Aaron Rodgers, and 0:07:00.680 --> 0:07:01.440 suddenly they have a. 0:07:01.400 --> 0:07:03.640 Defense, which, by the way, I do think is legitimate. 0:07:03.680 --> 0:07:05.839 I realize that it has been two games and that 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:08.000 is a good point, but they obviously made tons of 0:07:08.040 --> 0:07:11.400 additions in the offseason and it's coming to fruition. So far, 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:14.640 they haven't faced the most explosive offenses here against the 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:17.200 Bears and the Vikings necessarily, but I do think it's 0:07:17.280 --> 0:07:19.440 legit and at home. So it is something where I 0:07:19.560 --> 0:07:22.520 imagine that the line is probably going to drop back 0:07:22.560 --> 0:07:24.200 to about seven and a half. I don't think it 0:07:24.240 --> 0:07:26.400 will get down to seven, but I think it's probably 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:27.560 going to be one where there's going to be a 0:07:27.600 --> 0:07:30.240 split among the public and the sharp betters, is my guest, 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:33.360 for basically the exact reasons you said, go ahead. 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:35.000 That makes a lot of sense. And also I just 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:36.680 want to point I'm looking at my game grades here 0:07:36.680 --> 0:07:39.760 in Green Bay. I didn't you know they played well 0:07:39.760 --> 0:07:43.240 in defense against Minnesota, obviously limited Kirk Cousins, who is 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:46.360 a Redskins fan. I mean, I guess you know the 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:48.840 Redskins do a lot of things wrong, like everything wrong, 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:51.960 but maybe they were right not to let Kirk Cousins go. 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:56.400 But Green Bay they actually had a subpar game grade 0:07:56.600 --> 0:08:01.360 according to my numbers on offense, so you know they 0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:04.880 you know, obviously Denver's pretty bad on offense, but Green 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:08.440 Bays their offense has not been good in either of 0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:09.240 the first two games. 0:08:09.640 --> 0:08:11.840 Yeah, I know one thing we're not even talking about 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:13.680 because I haven't heard anything on it. It did look 0:08:13.720 --> 0:08:16.400 like Aaron Rodgers kind of sustained some sort of arm 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:19.520 injury in late in that game. He didn't throw very 0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:21.520 much towards the end. There hasn't been any word on it, 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:23.480 but you will want to monitor that because if it 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:26.240 is anything that could at all limit him, you probably 0:08:26.240 --> 0:08:28.680 want to come in on the Broncos there. By the way, 0:08:29.080 --> 0:08:30.560 do just want to point out that you being a 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:33.120 Redskins fan and me being a Jets fan maybe makes 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:36.200 this the saddest podcast of all time, but we're going 0:08:36.280 --> 0:08:38.160 to try to power through it. Let's move on to 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:40.880 the Falcons at the Colts. The Colts here are laying 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:43.360 two and a half and the over under is at 0:08:43.400 --> 0:08:46.000 forty seven and a half. That's down from about half 0:08:46.000 --> 0:08:48.720 a point from where it opened. Both teams are coming 0:08:48.760 --> 0:08:51.480 off big wins here. I'm a little surprised by it. 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:54.160 I thought it would be more like one. Not that 0:08:54.200 --> 0:08:57.760 it really makes a difference when it's under three necessarily, 0:08:57.800 --> 0:08:59.960 but I think I thought that it was going to 0:08:59.960 --> 0:09:02.440 be after the Falcons big win, it was gonna move 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:03.800 down a little bit, but it stayed at two and 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:05.640 a half right from the thought, right from the start. 0:09:05.960 --> 0:09:08.040 Any thoughts on that Colts playing two and a half 0:09:08.280 --> 0:09:10.360 over under at forty seven and a half. 0:09:10.120 --> 0:09:11.719 You know, I kind of agree with you on that. 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:14.240 And the Falcons are an interesting team to me because 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:19.000 basically the my individual player numbers like show that they 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:21.800 are a much more talented team than their actual game 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:25.280 results have indicated. And that's kind of gone back. That's 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:27.080 been that was the same last year as well, So 0:09:27.280 --> 0:09:29.360 it seems like they're a team that's kind of underachieved. 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:33.440 You know, they're the their offensive line play has not 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:35.400 been good, and I was expecting it to be a 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:38.599 little better. But you know, I do think that in 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:41.360 Jacoby Brissett for the Colts, I kind of thought that 0:09:41.440 --> 0:09:45.079 the market would what have valued Aaron or sorry, Aaron 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:47.840 Andrew luck a little bit more than it has. But 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:51.960 but Jacoby said, has proved to be quite serviceable so far. 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:54.440 And obviously the Colts also have a lot of talent. 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:58.200 But I you know, Atlanta did let's see where where 0:09:58.240 --> 0:10:01.480 was their game grade last week? Yeah? That was late 0:10:01.559 --> 0:10:06.480 last They were the thirteenth best, so they basically I 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:09.240 had them as a zero point twenty five points better 0:10:09.280 --> 0:10:13.480 than average, meaning that if you, I mean, that's adjusting 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:15.640 for their opponent and adjusting for home field advantage. And 0:10:15.760 --> 0:10:18.839 he played a little bit better point four points better. 0:10:18.920 --> 0:10:23.280 But man, everybody was very very clustered this past week. 0:10:23.360 --> 0:10:28.080 So yeah, so I make you know, honestly, my my 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:31.440 models diverge here a little bit. But I like the 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:34.280 Falcons here at plus three, and yeah, I'm already down 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:37.080 at Falcons at plus three, so I'm thinking it may 0:10:37.160 --> 0:10:39.280 close underfield goal. 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:42.080 Yeah, well right now, we've got it the consensus at 0:10:42.080 --> 0:10:44.520 two and a half, so it is already down a 0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:46.480 little bit. Then if you if you saw it at three, 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:50.120 I don't really know, I honestly don't. I mean, I've 0:10:50.160 --> 0:10:53.520 been pretty big on the Colts coming in. I thought 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:55.080 that the total freak out, I get it. I mean 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:58.160 Jacoby Brissett is not Andrew Luck. He's nowhere close to 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:01.520 Andrew Luck. But I feel like everybody had twenty seventeen 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:03.200 in their mind and they thought he was just going 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:05.000 to come in and be terrible, like when he was 0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:07.040 signed off the street that year. But that's not what 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:10.240 this is. It's a different offensive system, it's a different team, 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:13.600 and he was taking first reps for the entire preseason. 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:15.600 So you know, I like them. I think they're competent. 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:19.160 I'm still a little bit surprised, just because I feel 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:21.600 like Colts laying two and a half begs people to 0:11:21.640 --> 0:11:24.920 take the Falcons at that point, and I think it will, 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:28.720 and so you know, I wouldn't be surprised to necessarily 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:32.679 see this line actually move down. But you know, at 0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:34.400 this point that strikes me as a line that I 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:36.520 was surprised to see where it was, and I would 0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:39.880 expect it perhaps to even drop a little bit. So 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:44.840 if you like the Falcons, I think that i'd probably 0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:45.360 get it now. 0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:48.679 Personally, Yeah, and per Set, I mean, I think the 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:52.920 Colts do value Perset pretty highly. They did trade what 0:11:53.000 --> 0:11:55.280 a third rounder to the Patriots for. 0:11:55.320 --> 0:11:58.480 Him, Yeah, and they signed him to an extension. I mean, 0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:01.080 it's basically the equivalent of get him the franchise tag. 0:12:01.160 --> 0:12:03.400 But you know, they do like him and he can 0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:05.800 run that off. It's a great system and they're a 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:09.080 great team. You know, outside of Brissett. I'm not saying 0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:12.360 anything about him. He's fine. You know, he can start 0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:15.080 in the NFL. But they have an elite offensive line, 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:17.840 They've got a solid defense. Mac is a pretty decent 0:12:17.920 --> 0:12:20.720 running back. T Y Hilton is still good. They really 0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:22.640 they have a very strong team and if you have 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:25.600 somebody who knows that system, they can be good. But again, 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:28.120 at this point, I don't think the public has really 0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:30.760 caught on to them necessarily. I mean, maybe because they 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:33.400 beat the Titans, that's what they're thinking. But again, I'm 0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:36.160 a little bit surprised by this. I thought that the 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:38.520 spread would be a little bit closer here, and I 0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:40.240 wouldn't be surprised to see money come in on the 0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:42.480 Falcons and see it move down. Let's move on to 0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:44.560 the Ravens at the Chiefs. I was a little bit 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:46.920 surprised by this one. This has the Chiefs laying six 0:12:46.960 --> 0:12:49.400 and a half. It was at six now that total 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:51.760 right now is at fifty five and a half in 0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:54.360 our Consustus rankings. I saw it open at fifty two, 0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:58.120 so I think Better's most likely hammered the over here. 0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:00.240 And you can understand why. This is the first game 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:02.800 of the season in Arrowhead and the Ravens have played 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:05.440 some soft competition. So for me, when I looked at this, 0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:09.240 I was I get the Ravens have been incredible and 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:12.160 Lamar Jackson has been great, but they've played the Dolphins 0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:15.640 and they've played the Cardinals. Those are not strong defenses. 0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:19.000 I was really surprised that this was under a touchdown here, 0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:21.920 given how Mahomes has looked. So what's your reaction here 0:13:21.960 --> 0:13:23.600 at Chiefs laying six and a half in the over 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:25.079 under at fifty five and a half. 0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:27.120 Yeah, I'm a little surprised too, just given the sort 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:30.080 of Lamar Jackson hype we had week one and the 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:32.640 fact that he backed up that performance with another good 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:36.560 performance at least on the surface last week. So the 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:38.760 other I mean, I'm not surprised that the total is 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:41.720 so high, and that's again that's something where I'm gonna 0:13:42.080 --> 0:13:44.360 be playing the under for sure. I think that it 0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:46.280 might be one where I'm gonna wait a little bit 0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:49.400 as well, right now, it's Monday night. I haven't bet 0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:52.400 any totals yet. The number, I mean limits just are 0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:55.840 not high enough at this point. But I'm I lean 0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:59.560 towards Baltimore here. You know, honestly, it depends on what 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:02.200 you think of Lamar Jackson, how much you value two 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:05.160 games this year versus what you saw last year. And 0:14:05.200 --> 0:14:10.280 I think just I guess from I mean not a 0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:15.880 non modeling perspective, intuitively, I mean, the Ravens have had 0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:20.080 all off season to design a system around Lamar Jackson's strengths, 0:14:20.080 --> 0:14:22.560 and it seems like they've definitely done that and done 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:24.680 that well. And that's that's kind of hard to model. 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:27.640 And so the fact that my player value on Lamar 0:14:27.720 --> 0:14:31.760 Jackson going into the season was not frankly pretty poor, 0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:36.000 like like twenty fifth best quarterback in the NFL, I 0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:40.160 think that, you know, I don't actually believe that right now, 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:42.280 because I do believe they have designed a really good 0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:46.000 system around him. And so my team level model actually 0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:47.960 makes the game of three and a half points, right, So. 0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:50.640 I interest I think, Okay, so you were surprised. You 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:52.640 were saying, sorry, I didn't mean to go off, but 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:54.560 you were because I came in and I said, I'm 0:14:54.600 --> 0:14:57.400 surprised this wasn't at a touchdown. You sounded like, right 0:14:57.400 --> 0:14:59.320 off the bat, you basically said you were surprised that 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:00.520 it was as high as it was. 0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:01.480 Right, Well, you. 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:04.880 Have the Ravens defense, which is a fantastic unit, and 0:15:04.920 --> 0:15:06.960 I believe I have them as the best defense in 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:12.000 the NFL. Yes, I do by a substantial margin. So 0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:14.640 you yeah, and yes. 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:16.040 Out of curiosity. Out of curiosity. 0:15:16.080 --> 0:15:17.400 Sorry, again, I don't mean to get you up, but 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:19.480 I'm interested in you know, you're a very analytical guy. 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:22.400 I really want to get into this. How is that based? 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:25.960 Because again, they have faced you know, they faced the Dolphins, 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:28.560 which really doesn't count. I mean essentially, right, you can 0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:31.480 essentially throw that out, and they faced the Cardinals. How 0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:33.400 much does that take into account the fact that they've 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:35.480 played two offenses that. 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:37.200 Really kind of struggled to move the ball. 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:39.320 I mean, I realized that Kyler Murray looked fairly good 0:15:40.160 --> 0:15:42.080 this past week, But I mean, how much does that 0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:44.360 take into account if they're the best defense in the 0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:46.320 NFL given who they played so far? 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:49.760 Oh, it definitely takes it into account. Like, it's more 0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:52.040 the reason that I have them as the best is 0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:54.200 because that's basically what I expected them to be going 0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:56.560 into the season. They were the number one defense in 0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:59.400 the NFL by over a point over number two Chicago 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:03.400 and Myts going into the season, so and basically that 0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:08.080 hasn't changed much at least at the top. I mean personally, 0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:11.480 I think that, you know, I think people you know, 0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:15.120 Miami's obviously awful, but they have played the Patriots and 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:18.960 the Ravens, which are too like two teams that are 0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:21.640 you know, possibly super you know, Patriots obviously a Super 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:25.160 Bowl contender, and Ravens are a team that I think 0:16:25.240 --> 0:16:26.680 have a good chance to get a first Round by 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.040 this year and win their division. So actually, way you 0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:31.200 have Patriots and Chiefs that are the best teams in 0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:34.640 the football, but like the Ravens are not too far 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:38.840 behind given their defense, and so they don't need Lamar 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:41.360 Jackson to be incredible. They just need him to be 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:46.720 decent and they have you know that they're they're a 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:50.680 Super Bowl contender, So I don't think, you know, it's 0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:53.440 just like, you know, the Patriots held the Dolphins to 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:57.560 what sixty yards in the first three quarters of football, which, yes, 0:16:57.600 --> 0:17:00.800 they're the Dolphins, but holding any team to sixty yards 0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:04.000 over three quarters, it's really impressive. So I don't think, 0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:06.119 and I don't think, we can just throw out the 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:08.479 Ravens performance against the Dolphins and just say, oh, it 0:17:08.520 --> 0:17:09.400 was just the Dolphins. 0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:11.640 No I And again, I don't mean to be doing 0:17:11.640 --> 0:17:14.960 that whatsoever. I think the Ravens are certainly a strong team, 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:17.360 and I like them right now in the North, especially 0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:20.800 with Roethlisberger's injury, and they weren't looking great anyway. But 0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:23.199 it's just man, the Chiefs at this point and what 0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:26.359 Mahomes is still able to do just really scaring. But 0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:28.640 this is great. We're bringing two different perspectives. You sort 0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:30.560 of felt like the line should have been lower. I 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:32.520 felt like the line should have been higher. So I'm 0:17:32.600 --> 0:17:35.679 interested to see where this one is going to end up. 0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:38.240 Let's move on to our next game, the Bengals at 0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:40.840 the Bills. The Bills here are laying six. Now, I 0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:42.880 did see this open in a lot of spots at 0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:45.879 the Bills laying four, so it has moved up a 0:17:45.920 --> 0:17:47.879 bit here, and the over under at forty three and 0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:49.760 a half. This is also something where I saw it 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:53.159 open up at forty two. I mean, the Bills defense 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:55.960 has been really strong through two games. I haven't faced 0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:59.639 the toughest competition. The Bengals were surprisingly competent against the 0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:01.720 Seahawk in Week one, not so much in Week two 0:18:02.119 --> 0:18:04.720 against the four nine ers. The six points, you know, 0:18:04.840 --> 0:18:07.520 strikes me as a little bit of an overreaction, but 0:18:07.840 --> 0:18:08.600 I mean, I'm not sure. 0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:09.120 What do you think. 0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:11.280 What's your reaction to Bills lank six over under at 0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:12.040 forty three and a half. 0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:15.000 Well, personally, so, as I said before, you know, it's 0:18:15.040 --> 0:18:17.280 We've only had two games so far. So going into 0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:20.239 the season, I had the Bills as zero point three 0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:23.360 to five points better than average league average on defense, 0:18:23.680 --> 0:18:26.040