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Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. The good news, we have

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Speaker 1: some real actionable information on teams at this point, so

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Speaker 1: we can analyze the lines with an eye toward what

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Speaker 1: we've seen over the last two weeks. The bad news,

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Speaker 1: some notable injuries have thrown everything out of whack and

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Speaker 1: everything is crazy as we're going to talk about the

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Speaker 1: differences in the movement in the lines in both the

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Speaker 1: Steelers forty nine Ers game as opposed to the Seahawks

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Speaker 1: Saints game. Considering the injuries to Ben Roethlisberger Andrew Brees

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Speaker 1: is really interesting. We'll get to all of that and

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Speaker 1: more today. And with me to break everything down is

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Speaker 1: Rufus Peabody, a professional sports betteran analyst. You can find

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Speaker 1: his stuff at Massy Peabody Analytics and follow him on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Rufus Peabody. Rufus, thanks for joining me. How's

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Speaker 1: it going pretty good?

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Speaker 2: Thanks for having me, Dan.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna pull the curtain back a little bit. We're

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Speaker 1: recording this late. We're roughly getting to the fourth quarter

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Speaker 1: of the Jets Browns game, and we were late because

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Speaker 1: you had a bowling And I just want you to

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Speaker 1: know that I was telling you. I respect that significantly,

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Speaker 1: and that's why I had no problem moving the podcast

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Speaker 1: because it is the thing that I'm actually best at

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Speaker 1: in life. And we just found out we live like

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Speaker 1: an hour from each other. So maybe in a couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks, maybe you and I will talk some sports gambling,

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Speaker 1: and maybe we'll get together for a nice bowling match.

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Speaker 2: What he says sounds amazing. So I have to ask,

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Speaker 2: what's your highest score ever bowling.

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Speaker 3: Two twenty four? It's pretty good, not bad? Right, what

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Speaker 3: about you?

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Speaker 1: Okay, so we're not really in the same league that

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Speaker 1: I get it. I'm gonna I'm going to rescind the

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Speaker 1: invitation to go bowling, if that's okay with you, because.

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Speaker 3: I don't really want to be embarrassed.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I'm a high variance bowler, so I

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Speaker 2: can be really good or really bad.

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Speaker 3: All right, I'll take it. Then.

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Speaker 1: Well, anyway, today we're going to go through every over

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Speaker 1: under and spread for the week three games. Now, both

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Speaker 1: these spreads and the over unders, we're going to be

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Speaker 1: using the bettingpros dot Com consensus numbers. That is an

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Speaker 1: aggregation of the odds that are available on the market,

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Speaker 1: and as I always note, there are gonna be some

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Speaker 1: differences at the various sports books, particularly this week with

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Speaker 1: all the chaos, so make sure to shop around. But

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Speaker 1: for now, just know that when I list any given odds,

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Speaker 1: they're bettingpros dot Com consenstance ods. All right, my friend,

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Speaker 1: let us begin with the Thursday night game, the Titans

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Speaker 1: at the Jaguars. Right now, it's at the Titans laying

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Speaker 1: one and the over under at forty. I saw this

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Speaker 1: opening at spots as the Titans laying two and a half,

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Speaker 1: so it has moved a little bit. It is the

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Speaker 1: lowest over under of the week, which makes sense. Do

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Speaker 1: you have any sort of reaction to that line, because

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Speaker 1: I mean, the minus one, As far as I'm concerned,

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Speaker 1: it's pretty irrelevant to me, right, I mean, at that

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Speaker 1: point it could be the Jaguars minus one.

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Speaker 3: It wouldn't really matter, right, right.

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Speaker 2: I Mean, you do see more games land on zero

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Speaker 2: now with the new overtime rules in the last few years,

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Speaker 2: but still, I mean, you know that line, frankly, surprised me.

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Speaker 2: It surprises me. I think I expected it to a

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Speaker 2: little higher. I personally like the the Titans that I've

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Speaker 2: already actually you know, laid that, laid minus one and

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Speaker 2: have a full position down for me. So I'm not

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Speaker 2: going to be adding no matter what at this point.

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Speaker 2: But you know, I hate I hate being on road favorites.

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Speaker 2: It just feels wrong. But this line just I think

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Speaker 2: I'm higher than the market on Tennessee in general. And

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Speaker 2: I actually kind of leaned to Jacksonville last week. So

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Speaker 2: and I think, you know, Gardner minshe's a bit of

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Speaker 2: a wild card, and you know, he did not play

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Speaker 2: well last week to be quite honest. But I mean

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Speaker 2: I still think he's not a huge, huge downgrade from

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Speaker 2: you know, from Nick Foles. So you know, I depending

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Speaker 2: looking at my team level model, my player level model

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Speaker 2: like together. I mean, I think the spread should be

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Speaker 2: right around like four and a half towards the Titans.

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Speaker 2: What do you think?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, the Jaguars kept it close against the

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Speaker 1: Texans this past week. They went for two at the end,

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Speaker 1: so they easily could have run. There was a report

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Speaker 1: tonight that Jalen Ramsey wants out and he is requesting

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Speaker 1: a trade. I don't really think he's gonna get one

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Speaker 1: before Thursday, and I don't necessarily know what impact that

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Speaker 1: would have even if he did. Anyway, I don't think

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Speaker 1: cornerbacks necessarily are the type of players who are going

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Speaker 1: to move lines like that. But regardless, that just may

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Speaker 1: indicate that the Jaguars are slipping into a little bit

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Speaker 1: of disarray here. So I think favoring the Titans when

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Speaker 1: it's essentially a pick him is probably the right way

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Speaker 1: to go. And I wouldn't be surprised. I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: a Thursday game, so there's not that much time, but

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised to see it move a little

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Speaker 1: bit more towards the Titans at this point. All right,

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Speaker 1: Broncos at the Packers. Packers here are laying eight and

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Speaker 1: the over under is at forty three and a half.

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Speaker 1: This has moved just a tiny bit. It opened from

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Speaker 1: what I saw at least yesterday it was at Packers

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Speaker 1: laying seven and a half. So it's moved half a

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Speaker 1: point in favor of the Packers, and the over under

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Speaker 1: has moved down from forty four to forty three and

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Speaker 1: a half. I mean, two teams with pretty solid defense.

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Speaker 1: Is how do you feel overall about that line eight

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Speaker 1: Packers laying eight and over under at forty three and

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Speaker 1: a half.

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Speaker 2: Well, the Packers defense has been kind of like, I mean,

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Speaker 2: they've they've they've been really really good the first two games,

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Speaker 2: and I don't think we really expected that going into

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Speaker 2: the season, at least, you know, my numbers didn't, you know,

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Speaker 2: so my prior on them was not particularly high. And

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Speaker 2: at this point we have to remember it's only been

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Speaker 2: two games. You know, there's teams that look really good

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Speaker 2: and look really bad, and you know, but you know

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Speaker 2: there's teams that have really good weeks eleven and twelve too,

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Speaker 2: but we don't overreact to those because we have this,

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Speaker 2: you know, we have a lot of games under our

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Speaker 2: belt at that point. We don't at this point, so

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Speaker 2: I would caution, you know, against overreacting to how green

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Speaker 2: based defense is played. Like they've played well and there

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Speaker 2: is predictive value in that. But at the same time,

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Speaker 2: it still is only two games, so I think that

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Speaker 2: you know, I haven't run I don't have my numbers

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Speaker 2: for the total yet, but you know, if it was

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Speaker 2: last week, you know, I would have the total much

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Speaker 2: higher than the market. So I still think I probably

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Speaker 2: will lean over if anything, and I kind of lean

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Speaker 2: a little to Denver here too. I don't think that,

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Speaker 2: you know, I think Defense is still substantially better than

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Speaker 2: the Packers defense, despite you know what we've seen in

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Speaker 2: actually by substantially looking at it, now half a point better,

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Speaker 2: but still that's better. Yeah, and I'm actually kind of

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Speaker 2: bearish on the on the Packers as a whole, you know,

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Speaker 2: which kind of surprisingly, you know, they still have Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 2: He's getting older though he is in a new system.

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Speaker 2: But uh, you know, I kind of think that that

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Speaker 2: line might get down to just seven. We'll see, I'm

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Speaker 2: planning on I lean towards the Packers, or sorry, I

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Speaker 2: lean towards the Broncos. So I'm I'm I'm hoping it

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Speaker 2: goes up a little bit so I can get a

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Speaker 2: better price on Denver. But my guess is it'll, you know,

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Speaker 2: close at seven. That's if I had guess.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this strikes me as something where the public and

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Speaker 1: the sharp betters are going to be a little split.

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Speaker 1: I think that the public is going to look at

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Speaker 1: the Broncos and kind of be like the Broncos stink,

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Speaker 1: and they're going to look at the Packers and be like,

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Speaker 1: the Packers are great, and they have Aaron Rodgers, and

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Speaker 1: suddenly they have a.

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Speaker 3: Defense, which, by the way, I do think is legitimate.

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Speaker 1: I realize that it has been two games and that

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Speaker 1: is a good point, but they obviously made tons of

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Speaker 1: additions in the offseason and it's coming to fruition. So far,

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Speaker 1: they haven't faced the most explosive offenses here against the

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Speaker 1: Bears and the Vikings necessarily, but I do think it's

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Speaker 1: legit and at home. So it is something where I

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Speaker 1: imagine that the line is probably going to drop back

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Speaker 1: to about seven and a half. I don't think it

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Speaker 1: will get down to seven, but I think it's probably

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Speaker 1: going to be one where there's going to be a

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Speaker 1: split among the public and the sharp betters, is my guest,

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Speaker 1: for basically the exact reasons you said, go ahead.

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Speaker 2: That makes a lot of sense. And also I just

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Speaker 2: want to point I'm looking at my game grades here

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Speaker 2: in Green Bay. I didn't you know they played well

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Speaker 2: in defense against Minnesota, obviously limited Kirk Cousins, who is

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Speaker 2: a Redskins fan. I mean, I guess you know the

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Speaker 2: Redskins do a lot of things wrong, like everything wrong,

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Speaker 2: but maybe they were right not to let Kirk Cousins go.

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Speaker 2: But Green Bay they actually had a subpar game grade

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Speaker 2: according to my numbers on offense, so you know they

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Speaker 2: you know, obviously Denver's pretty bad on offense, but Green

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Speaker 2: Bays their offense has not been good in either of

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Speaker 2: the first two games.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I know one thing we're not even talking about

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Speaker 1: because I haven't heard anything on it. It did look

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Speaker 1: like Aaron Rodgers kind of sustained some sort of arm

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Speaker 1: injury in late in that game. He didn't throw very

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Speaker 1: much towards the end. There hasn't been any word on it,

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Speaker 1: but you will want to monitor that because if it

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Speaker 1: is anything that could at all limit him, you probably

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Speaker 1: want to come in on the Broncos there. By the way,

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Speaker 1: do just want to point out that you being a

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Speaker 1: Redskins fan and me being a Jets fan maybe makes

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Speaker 1: this the saddest podcast of all time, but we're going

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Speaker 1: to try to power through it. Let's move on to

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Speaker 1: the Falcons at the Colts. The Colts here are laying

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Speaker 1: two and a half and the over under is at

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Speaker 1: forty seven and a half. That's down from about half

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Speaker 1: a point from where it opened. Both teams are coming

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Speaker 1: off big wins here. I'm a little surprised by it.

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Speaker 1: I thought it would be more like one. Not that

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Speaker 1: it really makes a difference when it's under three necessarily,

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Speaker 1: but I think I thought that it was going to

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Speaker 1: be after the Falcons big win, it was gonna move

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Speaker 1: down a little bit, but it stayed at two and

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Speaker 1: a half right from the thought, right from the start.

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Speaker 1: Any thoughts on that Colts playing two and a half

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Speaker 1: over under at forty seven and a half.

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Speaker 2: You know, I kind of agree with you on that.

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Speaker 2: And the Falcons are an interesting team to me because

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Speaker 2: basically the my individual player numbers like show that they

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Speaker 2: are a much more talented team than their actual game

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Speaker 2: results have indicated. And that's kind of gone back. That's

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Speaker 2: been that was the same last year as well, So

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Speaker 2: it seems like they're a team that's kind of underachieved.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're the their offensive line play has not

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Speaker 2: been good, and I was expecting it to be a

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Speaker 2: little better. But you know, I do think that in

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Speaker 2: Jacoby Brissett for the Colts, I kind of thought that

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Speaker 2: the market would what have valued Aaron or sorry, Aaron

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Speaker 2: Andrew luck a little bit more than it has. But

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Speaker 2: but Jacoby said, has proved to be quite serviceable so far.

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Speaker 2: And obviously the Colts also have a lot of talent.

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Speaker 2: But I you know, Atlanta did let's see where where

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Speaker 2: was their game grade last week? Yeah? That was late

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Speaker 2: last They were the thirteenth best, so they basically I

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Speaker 2: had them as a zero point twenty five points better

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Speaker 2: than average, meaning that if you, I mean, that's adjusting

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Speaker 2: for their opponent and adjusting for home field advantage. And

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Speaker 2: he played a little bit better point four points better.

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Speaker 2: But man, everybody was very very clustered this past week.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, so I make you know, honestly, my my

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Speaker 2: models diverge here a little bit. But I like the

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Speaker 2: Falcons here at plus three, and yeah, I'm already down

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Speaker 2: at Falcons at plus three, so I'm thinking it may

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Speaker 2: close underfield goal.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well right now, we've got it the consensus at

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Speaker 1: two and a half, so it is already down a

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Speaker 1: little bit. Then if you if you saw it at three,

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Speaker 1: I don't really know, I honestly don't. I mean, I've

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Speaker 1: been pretty big on the Colts coming in. I thought

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Speaker 1: that the total freak out, I get it. I mean

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Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissett is not Andrew Luck. He's nowhere close to

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Speaker 1: Andrew Luck. But I feel like everybody had twenty seventeen

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Speaker 1: in their mind and they thought he was just going

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Speaker 1: to come in and be terrible, like when he was

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Speaker 1: signed off the street that year. But that's not what

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Speaker 1: this is. It's a different offensive system, it's a different team,

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Speaker 1: and he was taking first reps for the entire preseason.

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Speaker 1: So you know, I like them. I think they're competent.

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Speaker 1: I'm still a little bit surprised, just because I feel

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Speaker 1: like Colts laying two and a half begs people to

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Speaker 1: take the Falcons at that point, and I think it will,

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Speaker 1: and so you know, I wouldn't be surprised to necessarily

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Speaker 1: see this line actually move down. But you know, at

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Speaker 1: this point that strikes me as a line that I

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Speaker 1: was surprised to see where it was, and I would

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Speaker 1: expect it perhaps to even drop a little bit. So

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Speaker 1: if you like the Falcons, I think that i'd probably

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Speaker 1: get it now.

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Speaker 2: Personally, Yeah, and per Set, I mean, I think the

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Speaker 2: Colts do value Perset pretty highly. They did trade what

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Speaker 2: a third rounder to the Patriots for.

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Speaker 1: Him, Yeah, and they signed him to an extension. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's basically the equivalent of get him the franchise tag.

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Speaker 1: But you know, they do like him and he can

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Speaker 1: run that off. It's a great system and they're a

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Speaker 1: great team. You know, outside of Brissett. I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: anything about him. He's fine. You know, he can start

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. But they have an elite offensive line,

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Speaker 1: They've got a solid defense. Mac is a pretty decent

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Speaker 1: running back. T Y Hilton is still good. They really

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Speaker 1: they have a very strong team and if you have

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Speaker 1: somebody who knows that system, they can be good. But again,

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Speaker 1: at this point, I don't think the public has really

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Speaker 1: caught on to them necessarily. I mean, maybe because they

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Speaker 1: beat the Titans, that's what they're thinking. But again, I'm

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Speaker 1: a little bit surprised by this. I thought that the

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Speaker 1: spread would be a little bit closer here, and I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised to see money come in on the

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Speaker 1: Falcons and see it move down. Let's move on to

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Speaker 1: the Ravens at the Chiefs. I was a little bit

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Speaker 1: surprised by this one. This has the Chiefs laying six

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Speaker 1: and a half. It was at six now that total

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Speaker 1: right now is at fifty five and a half in

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Speaker 1: our Consustus rankings. I saw it open at fifty two,

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Speaker 1: so I think Better's most likely hammered the over here.

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Speaker 1: And you can understand why. This is the first game

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Speaker 1: of the season in Arrowhead and the Ravens have played

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Speaker 1: some soft competition. So for me, when I looked at this,

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Speaker 1: I was I get the Ravens have been incredible and

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson has been great, but they've played the Dolphins

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Speaker 1: and they've played the Cardinals. Those are not strong defenses.

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Speaker 1: I was really surprised that this was under a touchdown here,

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Speaker 1: given how Mahomes has looked. So what's your reaction here

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Speaker 1: at Chiefs laying six and a half in the over

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Speaker 1: under at fifty five and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a little surprised too, just given the sort

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Speaker 2: of Lamar Jackson hype we had week one and the

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Speaker 2: fact that he backed up that performance with another good

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Speaker 2: performance at least on the surface last week. So the

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Speaker 2: other I mean, I'm not surprised that the total is

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Speaker 2: so high, and that's again that's something where I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: be playing the under for sure. I think that it

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Speaker 2: might be one where I'm gonna wait a little bit

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Speaker 2: as well, right now, it's Monday night. I haven't bet

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Speaker 2: any totals yet. The number, I mean limits just are

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Speaker 2: not high enough at this point. But I'm I lean

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Speaker 2: towards Baltimore here. You know, honestly, it depends on what

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Speaker 2: you think of Lamar Jackson, how much you value two

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Speaker 2: games this year versus what you saw last year. And

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Speaker 2: I think just I guess from I mean not a

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Speaker 2: non modeling perspective, intuitively, I mean, the Ravens have had

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Speaker 2: all off season to design a system around Lamar Jackson's strengths,

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Speaker 2: and it seems like they've definitely done that and done

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Speaker 2: that well. And that's that's kind of hard to model.

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Speaker 2: And so the fact that my player value on Lamar

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Speaker 2: Jackson going into the season was not frankly pretty poor,

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Speaker 2: like like twenty fifth best quarterback in the NFL, I

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Speaker 2: think that, you know, I don't actually believe that right now,

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Speaker 2: because I do believe they have designed a really good

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Speaker 2: system around him. And so my team level model actually

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Speaker 2: makes the game of three and a half points, right, So.

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Speaker 1: I interest I think, Okay, so you were surprised. You

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Speaker 1: were saying, sorry, I didn't mean to go off, but

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Speaker 1: you were because I came in and I said, I'm

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Speaker 1: surprised this wasn't at a touchdown. You sounded like, right

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Speaker 1: off the bat, you basically said you were surprised that

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Speaker 1: it was as high as it was.

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Speaker 3: Right, Well, you.

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Speaker 2: Have the Ravens defense, which is a fantastic unit, and

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Speaker 2: I believe I have them as the best defense in

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Speaker 2: the NFL. Yes, I do by a substantial margin. So

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Speaker 2: you yeah, and yes.

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Speaker 3: Out of curiosity. Out of curiosity.

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Speaker 1: Sorry, again, I don't mean to get you up, but

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Speaker 1: I'm interested in you know, you're a very analytical guy.

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Speaker 1: I really want to get into this. How is that based?

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Speaker 1: Because again, they have faced you know, they faced the Dolphins,

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Speaker 1: which really doesn't count. I mean essentially, right, you can

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Speaker 1: essentially throw that out, and they faced the Cardinals. How

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Speaker 1: much does that take into account the fact that they've

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Speaker 1: played two offenses that.

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Speaker 3: Really kind of struggled to move the ball.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I realized that Kyler Murray looked fairly good

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Speaker 1: this past week, But I mean, how much does that

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Speaker 1: take into account if they're the best defense in the

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Speaker 1: NFL given who they played so far?

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Speaker 2: Oh, it definitely takes it into account. Like, it's more

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Speaker 2: the reason that I have them as the best is

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Speaker 2: because that's basically what I expected them to be going

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Speaker 2: into the season. They were the number one defense in

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Speaker 2: the NFL by over a point over number two Chicago

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Speaker 2: and Myts going into the season, so and basically that

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Speaker 2: hasn't changed much at least at the top. I mean personally,

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Speaker 2: I think that, you know, I think people you know,

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Speaker 2: Miami's obviously awful, but they have played the Patriots and

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Speaker 2: the Ravens, which are too like two teams that are

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Speaker 2: you know, possibly super you know, Patriots obviously a Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl contender, and Ravens are a team that I think

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Speaker 2: have a good chance to get a first Round by

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Speaker 2: this year and win their division. So actually, way you

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Speaker 2: have Patriots and Chiefs that are the best teams in

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Speaker 2: the football, but like the Ravens are not too far

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Speaker 2: behind given their defense, and so they don't need Lamar

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Speaker 2: Jackson to be incredible. They just need him to be

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Speaker 2: decent and they have you know that they're they're a

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl contender, So I don't think, you know, it's

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Speaker 2: just like, you know, the Patriots held the Dolphins to

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Speaker 2: what sixty yards in the first three quarters of football, which, yes,

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Speaker 2: they're the Dolphins, but holding any team to sixty yards

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Speaker 2: over three quarters, it's really impressive. So I don't think,

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Speaker 2: and I don't think, we can just throw out the

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Speaker 2: Ravens performance against the Dolphins and just say, oh, it

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Speaker 2: was just the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: No I And again, I don't mean to be doing

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Speaker 1: that whatsoever. I think the Ravens are certainly a strong team,

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Speaker 1: and I like them right now in the North, especially

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Speaker 1: with Roethlisberger's injury, and they weren't looking great anyway. But

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Speaker 1: it's just man, the Chiefs at this point and what

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Speaker 1: Mahomes is still able to do just really scaring. But

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Speaker 1: this is great. We're bringing two different perspectives. You sort

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Speaker 1: of felt like the line should have been lower. I

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Speaker 1: felt like the line should have been higher. So I'm

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Speaker 1: interested to see where this one is going to end up.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on to our next game, the Bengals at

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Speaker 1: the Bills. The Bills here are laying six. Now, I

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Speaker 1: did see this open in a lot of spots at

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Speaker 1: the Bills laying four, so it has moved up a

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Speaker 1: bit here, and the over under at forty three and

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Speaker 1: a half. This is also something where I saw it

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Speaker 1: open up at forty two. I mean, the Bills defense

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Speaker 1: has been really strong through two games. I haven't faced

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Speaker 1: the toughest competition. The Bengals were surprisingly competent against the

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Speaker 1: Seahawk in Week one, not so much in Week two

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Speaker 1: against the four nine ers. The six points, you know,

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Speaker 1: strikes me as a little bit of an overreaction, but

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not sure.

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Speaker 3: What do you think.

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Speaker 1: What's your reaction to Bills lank six over under at

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Speaker 1: forty three and a half.

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Speaker 2: Well, personally, so, as I said before, you know, it's

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Speaker 2: We've only had two games so far. So going into

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Speaker 2: the season, I had the Bills as zero point three

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Speaker 2: to five points better than average league average on defense,

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Speaker 2: and after two games I now have them at one

402
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Speaker 2: point plus one point three to nine, so they only

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Speaker 2: go up a point, which kind of you know, I

404
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Speaker 2: feel like that seems like an underreaction, right, but it is.

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Speaker 2: I guess what I'm saying is that's basically what the

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Speaker 2: numbers bear out. And I hate Cincinnati.

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Speaker 3: I mean my rate like the city, the city, or

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Speaker 3: the or the Bell Gulls.

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Speaker 2: I hate my numbers on Cincinnati. It feels like I'm

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Speaker 2: always too high on them for some reason, because Andy

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Speaker 2: Dalton is has a lot of experience and has been

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Speaker 2: a serviceable quarterback over the years. He's obviously not a

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Speaker 2: super star or anything like that, but he's you know,

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Speaker 2: he's not Luke Falk, right, all right, gratuitous but go ahead.

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Speaker 2: Who I called Nick Falk earlier accidentally?

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Speaker 1: But you're just again you were thinking of Nick Folk,

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Speaker 1: the former Jets kicker.

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Speaker 3: But go ahead.

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Speaker 2: So here's a question for you. If you, let's say

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Speaker 2: you put Andy Dalton's quarterback of the Bills and Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen this quarterback of the Bengals, how does that line change.

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Speaker 3: Wow, that's a great question. Gosh. My guess is it

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Speaker 3: would move a couple of points towards the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: I guess it would be more like the Bills at

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Speaker 1: home laying I'd probably put it at laying three. I

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Speaker 1: will admit that I don't really know what to make

427
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Speaker 1: of the Bengals at this point, right because I was

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Speaker 1: really impressed with what they were able to do in

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Speaker 1: Seattle in Week one. Zach Taylor's offense, you know, it

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Speaker 1: looked kind of exciting. They're down a green, their offensive

431
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Speaker 1: line is in shambles. That's that's also part of it.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if Cordy Glenn is going to be

433
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,200
Speaker 1: able to come back. But then they look terrib terrible

434
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 1: against the forty nine ers. They couldn't tackle anybody, they

435
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:05,879
Speaker 1: couldn't move the ball. Well, so I don't really know

436
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 1: what what do you what would it move in your

437
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,920
Speaker 1: opinion if if you swapped quarterbacks.

438
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:14,360
Speaker 2: So I would move it three points towards Cincinnati. Yeah,

439
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,600
Speaker 2: we're sorry away sorry wait, wait, towards Buffalo away from Cincinnati,

440
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:21,320
Speaker 2: really because I am so the other issue. I don't

441
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,640
Speaker 2: want to say issue, but but I think one thing

442
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:28,920
Speaker 2: that my model does not do is react. One thing

443
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 2: it does do, I guess is it underreacts to sort

444
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,879
Speaker 2: of quarterbacks in the career. It is very slow to

445
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 2: react to a guy being good that is a young guy.

446
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 2: So it because there are so many guys that you

447
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:45,040
Speaker 2: have a few good games at the start of the

448
00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:48,199
Speaker 2: career and don't end up doing that much. And it

449
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,720
Speaker 2: does if like this is kind of what the data

450
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:54,959
Speaker 2: bears out. And so a guy like Baker Mayfield, who

451
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 2: everybody was crowning, like, you know, thinking, was this guy

452
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,119
Speaker 2: that had a chance to coettend for MVP and you know,

453
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 2: lead Cleveland to the playoffs and possibly Super Bowl this year.

454
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,359
Speaker 2: You know, I still have him his a league average

455
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 2: quarterback basically, you know, And so I have Josh Allen.

456
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:15,120
Speaker 2: I think Josh Allen, you know, he was what top

457
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 2: ten pick overall, but he Dalton has a track record,

458
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:23,960
Speaker 2: I guess I should say a track record of mediocrity.

459
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 2: But I still have him as above league above an

460
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 2: above league average quarterback somehow, which is kind of why

461
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 2: I hate Cincinnati, because I'm like, there's no way he's

462
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 2: an above average quarterback. It doesn't feel like he is.

463
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 2: But he also is on the Bengals, and they tend

464
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 2: to kind of be very frugal with their money and

465
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:43,720
Speaker 2: not really spend on players.

466
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 1: And sure, what do you what do you think about

467
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 1: Bill's lang six? I mean, what's your gut reaction to that?

468
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 2: I took Cincinnati plus six?

469
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 3: Okay, all right, so I.

470
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 2: Think Cincinnati, for you know, one thing they do have

471
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 2: in general is a lot of continuity on their team

472
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 2: from last year. There's not a lot of roster turnover.

473
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,120
Speaker 2: And the Bills do have a lot of roster turnover,

474
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 2: which you know, a lot of that is a good

475
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,879
Speaker 2: roster turnover, I should say, it's not guys leaving that

476
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 2: you do did They did lose Lashawn McCoy, but running

477
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 2: backs don't really matter very much. That is basically no

478
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 2: down grade there. But they brought in some players that

479
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 2: they thought are gonna help improve them on the offensive line,

480
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 2: a wide receiver for example. Whereas the Bengals had a

481
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,400
Speaker 2: lot of continuity and they had a very bad offensive

482
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 2: line last year. They their offensive line graded out like horrendously,

483
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:37,640
Speaker 2: and it's this is kind of one of those regression

484
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 2: in the mean things. It's like, well, this is a

485
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:44,439
Speaker 2: professional franchise, is offensive line like it. It can't be

486
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 2: it can't be any worse, and it should be better

487
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,879
Speaker 2: just due to like randomness, just due to like you know,

488
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,119
Speaker 2: it is hard to be that bad back to back years,

489
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 2: that type of thing.

490
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,919
Speaker 1: So all right, well, I mean, look, I'll be honest,

491
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 1: I did not have a strong reaction to this. I

492
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 1: don't really know what you're supposed to do this. I

493
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 1: lean Cincinnati at Bill's lank six, but you feel much

494
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 1: stronger that probably the spread would have been much more

495
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 1: fair if it were lower and closer to Cincinnati, which

496
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 1: I think is fair. I think that the public is

497
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 1: probably going to be on the Bills, because I think

498
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:20,439
Speaker 1: the public used things rather sort of simply as the

499
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,199
Speaker 1: Bills kind of looking relatively good in the opening, and

500
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 1: they'll have that taste of watching Cincinnati get destroyed by

501
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. But I agree it's at least

502
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 1: something that should be much closer. I don't know whether

503
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 1: or not the spread's going to move, but I think

504
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:33,679
Speaker 1: if you can early go in, if you can get

505
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,479
Speaker 1: in on Cincinnati, that probably makes sense. Let's move on

506
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:41,160
Speaker 1: to my Jets at the Patriots. Patriots are currently laying

507
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 1: eighteen and a half. Look, this was at seventeen at

508
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 1: one point when I checked yesterday. I think it may

509
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 1: have opened at thirteen or something like that. The over

510
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: under was at forty six.

511
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 3: And a half.

512
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 1: It was at forty eight now my guess. Although I mean,

513
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 1: the Jets looked terrible while Trevor Simon was throwing the ball,

514
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:02,199
Speaker 1: but with Luke Faw, I can't imagine that the spread

515
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 1: is just going to hang out here at eighteen and

516
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 1: a half. I've got to think that it's probably going

517
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 1: to move to at least twenty. When you're dealing with

518
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 1: a guy who's basically never played quarterback in the NFL.

519
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, I think it's gonna go up a little bit.

520
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 2: I didn't. I showed maybe a touch of value towards

521
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 2: the Jets with Simeon, but not much. I made it

522
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:26,479
Speaker 2: right around sixteen. Okay, And you know I'm not following

523
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 2: the game very closely. Right now, with twenty three to

524
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 2: three in the fourth quarter.

525
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 3: You're lucky.

526
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 1: You're just consider yourself lucky. It's it's not pretty.

527
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 2: The Jets are not going to improve from this. So

528
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 2: and I think that the narratives, I mean, I think

529
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 2: I think that line is going to get driven up

530
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 2: largely by this narrative of the Patriots being this unstoppable

531
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 2: force and the Jets, you know, zero to two and

532
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 2: with their third string quarterback, like, I think it could

533
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 2: get up there on Miami Dallas territory.

534
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I think.

535
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:57,879
Speaker 1: And we'll get to that in a minute, which right

536
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 1: now is at twenty one sitting here, unless it's continuing

537
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: to move. But I agree, if you wake up and

538
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:05,919
Speaker 1: you see it still at eighteen and a half, I

539
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 1: personally would have zero problems. If you've seen it's gonna move.

540
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 1: I mean, the Jets look abysmal. They are down some

541
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 1: key players, on defense right now, but it's really not

542
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 1: gonna make a difference. They're not gonna be able to

543
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 1: move the ball very well, regardless of who's a quarterback

544
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 1: if it's not Darnold against the strong Patriots defense. So

545
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 1: to the extent you can get in on at walle

546
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 1: it's at eighteen and a half, I would go ahead

547
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 1: and make that move personally. Now before we move on,

548
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,399
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549
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579
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: let's move on to the Lions at the Eagles. Here,

580
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 1: the Eagles are currently laying seven. It was at seven

581
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 1: and a half and the over under is at forty

582
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 1: eight and it was at forty nine and a half.

583
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 1: My guess is that this download movement is most likely

584
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: because of the injuries that the Eagles sustained last night.

585
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 1: Both the Shawn Jackson and al Seon Jeffrey missed pretty

586
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 1: much the entirety of last night's game against the Falcons Dallas.

587
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 1: Goottard was out there, just devastated by injuries. So right now, though,

588
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,640
Speaker 1: looking at it, you know, those guys are both questionable.

589
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 1: Sounds like DeShawn may play Nato Sharron al Sean. The

590
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 1: Eagles are laying seven and the over under is at

591
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 1: forty eight lines at the Eagles, what do you think?

592
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 2: I like the Lions here? Their defense his you know,

593
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 2: obviously Matt Patrici gets a bunch of crap. But their

594
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,119
Speaker 2: defense has been impressive so far this year. You know,

595
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:38,160
Speaker 2: they haven't they haven't played world beaters exactly. They had

596
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:42,160
Speaker 2: faced rookie Kyler Murray and played a really good half

597
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 2: and then let them back into it. And but the Chargers, actually,

598
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 2: the Chargers are a good team. Although I tend to

599
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 2: think that, you know, Philip Rivers at some point is

600
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 2: we're going to see some kind of big decline, although

601
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 2: I hope not because I managed to be stuck with

602
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 2: him on my fantasy football team. No, the Lions defense,

603
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:00,880
Speaker 2: I was surprised at how good they've played so far

604
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 2: this season. There I have them as zero point eight

605
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 2: points above league average, and I think that that spread

606
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 2: should be should be closer to a field goal. To

607
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,919
Speaker 2: be honest, I'm not a big believer in the Eagles

608
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 2: and Carson Wentz and okay, Carson Wentz. It's it's interesting

609
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 2: because Carson Wentz. I guess it feels like what he's

610
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,919
Speaker 2: been in league three or four years now. But I

611
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 2: think everybody keeps expecting him to sort of take that

612
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 2: next step because he showed flat like his first year,

613
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 2: he showed a bunch of flashes, and he just hasn't

614
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 2: really taken it.

615
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean he's of course, he's battled injuries for

616
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 1: most of his career. He can uncork some throws. I

617
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 1: think you know last night too, he was basically getting

618
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: pulled down. He got rid of the ball a split

619
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 1: second before his knee hit the ground, and he got

620
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 1: so much on it. It's really impressive that he's able

621
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 1: to do it. I'm a little more bullish on the Eagles,

622
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 1: but I do agree that at this point the seven

623
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 1: points spread I kind of undervalues the Lions. I don't

624
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 1: necessarily think i'd have a closer to a field goal.

625
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 1: I think it should be more like six under the

626
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 1: key number of seven. But you know my initial reaction,

627
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 1: even on the road, I agree, the Lions have been

628
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 1: impressive so far. I mean, I think that they should

629
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: have lost against the Chargers. The Chargers kind of gave

630
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 1: that game away. But I do think that they've been impressive. So,

631
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 1: you know, some of it may depend on the injuries,

632
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: but I imagine that the spread is going to roughly

633
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: stick right around seven. I could see it maybe dropping

634
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 1: to six and a half, maybe even six if the

635
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 1: Eagles continue to battle all the injuries. But it is

636
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 1: something where I think my initial reaction to it was

637
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 1: it undervalues the Lions at this point.

638
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 2: And by the way, I think you're right like the Chargers.

639
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 2: I have the Chargers in my game grades is half

640
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 2: a point better than the Lions overall, but the Lion's

641
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 2: defense was a little bit better.

642
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, this is what the Chargers kind

643
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 1: of do. And we could break down that game for

644
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 1: a long time. I mean, you know Austin Eckler fumbling

645
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 1: as he went into the goal line, and you know

646
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 1: Rivers throwing a pick at the end zone and missing

647
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 1: the trying a field goal with a backup kicker instead

648
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 1: of going forward on fourth, and you know, it was

649
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 1: just a bunch of things. But I think that the

650
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 1: Charger should have won that game. But I was impressed

651
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 1: watching that game with the Lions, in particular their defense

652
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 1: and they have weapons on offense.

653
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 3: You know, T J.

654
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 1: Hockinson didn't do anything yesterday, but he is a big presence.

655
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 1: Kenny Galladay is still good. Kerry On Johnson can still

656
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 1: get it done. Marvin Jones is kind of underrated. He

657
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 1: hasn't been that involved yet. So they've got a lot

658
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 1: of weapons that they can do. So I do think

659
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 1: that if it stays at a touchdown, I will like

660
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 1: the Lions probably here, but I wouldn't be surprised to

661
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 1: see dropped just a bit. Let's move on to the

662
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 1: Raiders at the Vikings. The Vikings here are laying eight

663
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 1: and a half and the over under is at forty

664
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 1: two and a half. Now, this originally opened from what

665
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 1: I saw, it was at seven and a half, so

666
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 1: it's moved about a point in favor of the Vikings.

667
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 1: I don't know whether or not that's a reaction to

668
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 1: the Raiders coming down to Earth a little bit against

669
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,719
Speaker 1: the Chiefs yesterday, although that's probably a little unfair. They

670
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 1: are dealing with some injuries here. Tyrell Williams and Josh

671
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 1: Jacobs are both banged up a little bit. I haven't

672
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 1: seen anything that suggests that their availability is in question

673
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 1: at this point. But how do you feel about the

674
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: Raiders at the vikings? The Vikings currently eight and a

675
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 1: half with an over under of forty two and a half.

676
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 2: You know, I don't have a strong opinion there. I

677
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 2: make the line right around six and a half, so

678
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 2: it's not big enough spread for me at this point

679
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 2: to take it. And regarding the injuries though, I think

680
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 2: that the running backs and wide receivers, it feels like

681
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 2: those are the injuries we notice the most. But at

682
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 2: the same time, those are the you know, my numbers

683
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 2: have shown those are kind of the least important positions,

684
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 2: meaning they're sort of the most replaceable.

685
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, and so I mean, offensive line's got to move

686
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 1: it much more than that, right, I don't know.

687
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 2: If it moves the line more, but it should for sure.

688
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 3: We'll talk about in a bit. Of course.

689
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 1: You've got two major quarterback injuries that we're going to

690
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 1: talk about, and the impact of the lines, which I'll

691
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 1: really want to pick your brain on a little bit

692
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 1: is vastly different. I mean, the movement in what happened

693
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 1: to the line with the Saints versus what happened with

694
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,479
Speaker 1: the Steelers pretty different there, So we will talk about that,

695
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 1: But in terms of this game, I completely agree. I

696
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 1: just you know, what I do was when I look

697
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 1: at the line, I try to project the lines necessarily,

698
00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 1: and when I look at it, I just I just

699
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 1: did not have a strong feeling on this. I don't

700
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,239
Speaker 1: necessarily know if it's gonna move anywhere. I think eight

701
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 1: and a half. I don't think it's getting back down

702
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 1: to seven or anything close to that. But it struck

703
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 1: me as just right around kind of where it needed

704
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 1: to be. I don't really have a strong feeling on that.

705
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 1: So we'll see if it moves during the week, but

706
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: for right now, I'm not all that excited about it.

707
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 1: Let's move to the Dolphins at the Cowboys here. You

708
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 1: referenced it earlier. The Cowboys are currently laying twenty one points.

709
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:26,959
Speaker 1: I believe it opened at sixteen and a half, so

710
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 1: it moved quite a bit. The over under is forty

711
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 1: seven and a half now. A couple of updates here.

712
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 1: I mean we've seen the Cowboys look very good on offense.

713
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:39,840
Speaker 1: Of course, so far, we've seen the Dolphins look abysmal

714
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 1: and pretty much every facet of the game we mentioned

715
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 1: what makes a difference necessarily in the line. So neither

716
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 1: one of these things will probably move it either way.

717
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: But there is no Michael Gallup in this one. He

718
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 1: sustained a minor injury to his meniscus, so he's gonna

719
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 1: miss two to four weeks, including this game and tonight.

720
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 1: Right before we recorded, the Dolphins traded Minka Fitzpatrick to

721
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: the Steelers for first rounder. How do you handle generally

722
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 1: these giant lines that we're saying now with basically, you know,

723
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 1: whenever the Dolphins play, I mean, what do you do

724
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 1: with a line that's twenty one?

725
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting because my model, I'll be the

726
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 2: first of men, I'm not the best of dealing with

727
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 2: outliers because I'd rather be good at predicting most of

728
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 2: the games and miss on a few than set up

729
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 2: a model to sort of handle a few really well

730
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 2: and then not be less accurate on most. I guess

731
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 2: it's not like I'm It's not like I'm on Wall

732
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 2: Street and leveraging my taking these huge leverage positions, and

733
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 2: if I'm not getting the parameter uncertainty modeled correctly, I'm

734
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 2: going to lose everything on one bet. Right, I'm allocating

735
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 2: a specific amount on each bet, so no one bet

736
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 2: is going to really kill me. So with that said,

737
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 2: I think that we tend to I found at least

738
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:57,959
Speaker 2: and this isn't in the NFL per se, but in

739
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 2: other sports like baseball, I found that overall, the truly

740
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:08,960
Speaker 2: extreme teams I do tend to be to miss on

741
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 2: a little bit, like I'm too high on the extreme

742
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 2: bad teams and too well on the extreme good teams,

743
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,359
Speaker 2: the teams that end up being that truly extreme outlier team.

744
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 2: But the funny thing is there the market thinks that

745
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 2: there are more true extreme teams than there actually are.

746
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 2: We're too quick, the public is too quick to say, yes,

747
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 2: this team is an outlier, this team is really really

748
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 2: like extreme good or really really extreme bad. So it

749
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 2: does seem right now like the Dolphins are an extreme

750
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 2: bad team, but they've played two really good teams so far,

751
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 2: and they do have a team of professionals that were

752
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 2: mostly drafted in the NFL Draft. They have a coach

753
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 2: who has experience. Well it's his first time as an

754
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 2: NFL head coach. But but you know they have a

755
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 2: coaching staff with people that have coached before. These are

756
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,440
Speaker 2: they would still beat any college team by a mile.

757
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 2: And so you know, they they did play like I

758
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 2: have game grades, and they played fundamentally. They were forty

759
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:17,319
Speaker 2: points worse than New England last week.

760
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 4: So but but you know, I'm I will be on

761
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:26,399
Speaker 4: Miami here and I actually took some at twenty one

762
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 4: and a half earlier today.

763
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:31,399
Speaker 2: If it goes higher, I will take some more. I

764
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 2: just I just think, like, how can it possibly be

765
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 2: that high? Like my my numbers I have it as

766
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 2: a fifteen point spread, so and I know that's too low,

767
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 2: but yeah, I don't truly believe it should be twenty

768
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 2: one and a half points. You don't have Luke falk Is,

769
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 2: the is the Dolphins quarterback. You actually have someone serviceable

770
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 2: who has played very well at times in his career

771
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:59,479
Speaker 2: in Ryan Fitzpatrick, although he's not played very well this year,

772
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:04,280
Speaker 2: and so like this is a team of professional football players.

773
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:06,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I get it. If you take another shot at

774
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 1: the Jets. By the way I'm ending the podcast, I'm

775
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 1: I'm just laying that out there right now. Okay, you

776
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 1: Luke Fox is like the best thing that's happened to

777
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 1: the Jets season so far.

778
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 3: So for me, I don't know. I don't know how

779
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:17,840
Speaker 3: you do.

780
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:21,320
Speaker 1: I mean, historically, teams that are favored by twenty plus

781
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 1: points I don't believe have fared particularly well. But I

782
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 1: don't know how to analyze this. I'm not kidding, like,

783
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 1: I don't want any piece of it. Everything to me

784
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 1: is like twenty one. You got to take the Dolphins

785
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 1: at this point. But watching them, it's just futility at

786
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 1: its best. And I know they are a professional sports team,

787
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 1: and you make all the right points, and when I

788
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 1: analyze it, yeah, I think, you know what, the Dolphins

789
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:48,439
Speaker 1: here have value at this number. But it's something where

790
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 1: I personally, I just can't get in on it. I

791
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 1: just for me, it's a stay.

792
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 3: Away, you know. I can't imagine if it got.

793
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 1: To like twenty four, I'd probably be for us too,

794
00:36:57,560 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 1: But it's not gonna get there, I don't think and

795
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:01,680
Speaker 1: either for now, I think i'd probably just avoid.

796
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 2: So what do you think is the square? Like, do

797
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:07,320
Speaker 2: you think that the what is the quote unquote sharp

798
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:07,839
Speaker 2: side here?

799
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 1: I mean, I I well, the sharp side was on

800
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 1: the Dolphins against the Patriots, right, I mean they got

801
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,879
Speaker 1: I believe, a lot of money in once that number

802
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:19,839
Speaker 1: started creeping up towards you know, wherever it eventually ended up.

803
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 1: My guess is the sharps are going to be on

804
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 1: the Dolphins at twenty one or twenty one and a

805
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 1: half because they're going to see value in it. For me,

806
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 1: there are some things and the same thing and this

807
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 1: is going to be simplistic, but I'm going to be

808
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 1: honest about it. It's the same thing with Mahomes. It's

809
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 1: very difficult for me when I look at a spread

810
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 1: and I look at something and I say, this is

811
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:39,800
Speaker 1: what I think it should be because I think sometimes

812
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:41,760
Speaker 1: with a guy like Mahomes and what he is doing,

813
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 1: and with a team like the Dolphins at this point,

814
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 1: it kind of makes me want to throw sort of

815
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 1: everything that I have out the window and just kind

816
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 1: of not get involved. I know that that's not the

817
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:51,840
Speaker 1: way you need.

818
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:52,399
Speaker 3: To be doing things.

819
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 1: You need to be you know, essentially analyzing it and

820
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 1: taking the position that you think best represents where you

821
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 1: need to be. But for me, looking at I just

822
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:02,959
Speaker 1: I can't I can't take the value that I see

823
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 1: on the Dolphins because I really am concerned that this

824
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:09,520
Speaker 1: could be that outlier season where every spread is going

825
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:12,479
Speaker 1: to be twenty and above except when they play the Jets,

826
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 1: and it's going to be warranted.

827
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 2: It could be, but I mean, look at this. I mean,

828
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:19,240
Speaker 2: you have Dallas that started to and O the Dolphins

829
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:21,839
Speaker 2: have started owing to. The Dolphins have been outscored by

830
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 2: what almost an is it a hundred points? Right around

831
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 2: one hundred points ninety something?

832
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:29,800
Speaker 3: Yeah about that, yes.

833
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 2: And the Cowboys have you know, two convincing wins against

834
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:38,840
Speaker 2: two really bad football teams, and so I sort of

835
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:40,759
Speaker 2: think that there's this whole I mean, I think the

836
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 2: narratives are really pushing the Cowboys up there, and there

837
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,919
Speaker 2: is going to be like when you see outlier performances,

838
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 2: you know, luck is generally a contributing factor in some

839
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 2: way most of the time. So I think they will

840
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 2: come back down to earth a little bit. I mean,

841
00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 2: you're not going to have Fitzpatrick is gonna throw two

842
00:38:58,960 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 2: picks sixes every game.

843
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 1: Well, you know, he did play for the Jets, and

844
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 1: I've seen him do it. Well, maybe not every game,

845
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,479
Speaker 1: but yeah, now I understand everything you're saying.

846
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 3: I really do.

847
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:11,839
Speaker 1: It's just something at this point that I really it's

848
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 1: not something that I'm willing to jump in on. Let's

849
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 1: move on here, because we spend a lot of time

850
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 1: in that game. To the Giants at the Bucks. The

851
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 1: Bucks are currently laying six and a half and the

852
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 1: over under is at forty eight. Pat Summer is not

853
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 1: naming a QB at this point, so we don't know

854
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 1: necessarily whether Eli Manning is going to be under center.

855
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 1: The Giants look terrible. What's your reaction here? Bucks laying

856
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 1: six and a half over under at forty eight.

857
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 2: I mean, there's no reason the Giants should be playing

858
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,279
Speaker 2: Eli Manning at this point. He's basically had a three

859
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 2: year farewell tour in New York and you know that

860
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 2: team is going nowhere. But as much as it pains

861
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:46,319
Speaker 2: me to say it, I still think there's a little

862
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 2: value there on the Giants. If you can get plus seven.

863
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, what about six and a half? Are you

864
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 3: in on them?

865
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 2: I already got in at plus seven, okay for a

866
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:01,280
Speaker 2: little bit, plus seven, Lanye minus one, sixteen, Yeah, my numbers,

867
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 2: My numbers actually do still like the Giants at six

868
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 2: and a half eight to say it, but.

869
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:07,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I look, the early money that's coming in is

870
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: heavily on the Giants, so I don't think you're alone there.

871
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:12,360
Speaker 1: Now the spread has moved up from where it was.

872
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 1: Originally it was five and a half, it went to

873
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:15,319
Speaker 1: six and a half. I think you kind of got

874
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 1: to wait here because we don't really know who's going

875
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,359
Speaker 1: to be under center, and it's kind of hard to

876
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:19,959
Speaker 1: make that move.

877
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:20,720
Speaker 3: If it is.

878
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 1: Eli, Yeah, I mean if I can get it at

879
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 1: a touchdown, I'd get in on it. Once it gets

880
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 1: below the key number, it's a little nerve wracking, but

881
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 1: we'll need to see where it goes. But I do

882
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 1: think if there is value on a team right now,

883
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 1: it is on the Giants.

884
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 2: Wait. And as much as it pains me to say it,

885
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 2: if Daniel Jones is in a quarterback that, I mean

886
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:42,360
Speaker 2: that hurts the Giants in the short term. Yeah, it

887
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 2: hurts up for the game, but I think it's better

888
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 2: for the franchise.

889
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:48,279
Speaker 1: I think we can be in full agreement that they

890
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 1: Eli should not be the starting quarterback for the Giants

891
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 1: right now. The impact on this exact game would probably

892
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:55,759
Speaker 1: be negative for them. I agree, let's move on to

893
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 1: the Panthers at the Cardinals. Panthers here are laying two

894
00:40:58,080 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 1: and a half. Now, this was at three and a half,

895
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 1: so they've moved it down closer towards the Cardinals. The

896
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:05,280
Speaker 1: over under has moved to forty six and a half.

897
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 1: It was at forty four. I mean, the Panthers have

898
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 1: not looked good. Cam hasn't looked good. They do get

899
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:12,319
Speaker 1: extra time to prepare here. So what's your reaction to

900
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 1: Panthers laying two and a half over under at forty

901
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 1: six and a half.

902
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 2: You're right that that extra time to prepare is worth something.

903
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:20,520
Speaker 2: I actually, I don't have an opinion. I make the

904
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 2: Panthers a little over three point favorite, so no opinion there.

905
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 2: And the Panthers have looked bad, but again it's only

906
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:32,279
Speaker 2: two games and they're against a you know, Arizona team

907
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:35,319
Speaker 2: that's in full rebuild mode with you know, a ton

908
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 2: of inexperienced players on defense and a rookie quarterback and

909
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,439
Speaker 2: a coach that got fired at Texas Tech.

910
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:48,279
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm I'm personally I'm a little surprised this

911
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:53,840
Speaker 1: move below three given the extra time off. I really

912
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 1: I think they're going to come out, and I think

913
00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 1: if you can get it below three, I would take

914
00:41:58,120 --> 00:41:59,839
Speaker 1: that any day of the week. I realized that they're

915
00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:01,359
Speaker 1: on the road, but I do think that the extra

916
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 1: time to prepare the Cardinals have all sorts of problems.

917
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:04,160
Speaker 3: On defense.

918
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 1: I realized Murray and the offense looked a bit more competent,

919
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:09,840
Speaker 1: although they couldn't really get in the end zone against Baltimore.

920
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 1: But I love to me the early thing here, and

921
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 1: especially it opened above the key number of three. It

922
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 1: opened at three and a half, and the fact that

923
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 1: it's moved to two and a half, you know, regardless

924
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 1: of what that means, I personally like it if you

925
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 1: can get the Panthers below that key number. Before we

926
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 1: get into our last few games. I do want to

927
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 1: remind everyone that we are giving away and autographed Alvin

928
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:32,760
Speaker 1: Kamara helmet this month. To be entered into the contest,

929
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 1: all you need to do is leave a review for

930
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 1: the podcast on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot

931
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:40,719
Speaker 1: of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. And

932
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:42,839
Speaker 1: if you entered last month's contest and did not win,

933
00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:45,759
Speaker 1: then you are automatically entered this month, So no need

934
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 1: to worry about that, all right, Let's move on to

935
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,280
Speaker 1: these Steelers at the forty nine ers. Now, of course,

936
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 1: this has all gone crazy since Roethlisberger got injured. It

937
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:57,320
Speaker 1: opened at the Steelers laying a point and a half,

938
00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 1: It is currently at the forty nine Ers laying seven.

939
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 3: To me.

940
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 1: I don't know that seems like a crazy move, as

941
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 1: some of it could be due to the fact that

942
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers looked very good dismantling the Bengals

943
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 1: on Sunday.

944
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:14,360
Speaker 3: But I mean that's a huge move for quarterback.

945
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:17,280
Speaker 1: I get that Mason Rudolph, you know, doesn't have experience,

946
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:19,799
Speaker 1: but he looked competent against the SIAXO. I mean, how

947
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,359
Speaker 1: do he analyze and what's a reaction to forty nine

948
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 1: ers laying seven to the Steelers in the over under

949
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:25,240
Speaker 1: at forty four and a half.

950
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 2: You're right, Rudolph has looked confident. And I know the

951
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:31,239
Speaker 2: sort of common perception here is that Bridgewater is not

952
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 2: nearly as big a downgrade for the Saints as Rudolph

953
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:38,440
Speaker 2: is for the Steelers. But but my numbers kind of

954
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 2: agree with that perception. I think that I think that

955
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 2: that move is entirely warranted and it's I made the

956
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 2: line actually minus seven point eight, so I think.

957
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:55,920
Speaker 1: Really, yeah, I'm honestly, I'm surprised that I don't want

958
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:58,920
Speaker 1: to be buying too much into what I saw yesterday.

959
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 1: Of course, Bridgewaters it's different. He's been in the system

960
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,879
Speaker 1: for several years, although Rudolph obviously has a little time there,

961
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:08,800
Speaker 1: and Bridgewater has been a competent NFL could be, of course,

962
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 1: But I mean eight and a half.

963
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 3: You know that that is a huge move to me.

964
00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 1: I'm not even saying that I think you need to

965
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 1: jump on the Steelers or anything like that. I do

966
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:20,719
Speaker 1: think that the forty nine Ers are a decent team,

967
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 1: better than people expected them to be. But that seemed

968
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 1: like a huge move. But it sounds like you're right

969
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 1: there and you think that the move was pretty much

970
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:29,879
Speaker 1: right and you think it's probably that's probably where it'll

971
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:31,360
Speaker 1: end up, right right around seven.

972
00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 2: Having I mean, quarterback is the most important position in

973
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:37,239
Speaker 2: the NFL by mile, and if you know it's your

974
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 2: quarterback is just as important as the ten other players

975
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 2: on offense combined. So that that's the reason for the

976
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 2: move right there. And it all comes down to what

977
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 2: you think of Mason Rudolph and a guy that hasn't

978
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 2: you know me, did he have one start? I mean

979
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 2: he's had some, he's had a little bit of sporadic

980
00:44:56,719 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 2: playing time, but you know, a guy like just the

981
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:05,080
Speaker 2: track record of guys with zero one starts just is

982
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 2: not very good.

983
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:06,959
Speaker 3: Yeah.

984
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:10,560
Speaker 1: Well, I mean it's uns it's fair, it's fair to

985
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:12,839
Speaker 1: the NFL. Just it struck me as again, I mean,

986
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 1: I know, quarterback of course the most important, of course,

987
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:17,680
Speaker 1: but especially we're going to see the number on breeze

988
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 1: and it's a different it's Bridgewater, and he certainly has

989
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 1: experienced and he certainly looked competent in his career, but

990
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 1: I mean it's a much smaller move, which we'll get

991
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 1: to in a second. But you're saying that's totally warranted,

992
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with you. That's totally fine. Forty

993
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:32,240
Speaker 1: nine ers laying seven, So my guess is that's probably

994
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:34,279
Speaker 1: around where it's going to be. It's a tough game,

995
00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 1: of course, to handicap, because we just we don't have

996
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 1: that much data on Rudolph. It's more of sort of

997
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 1: the analytical of what do you think when you lose

998
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,879
Speaker 1: someone like Roethlisberger to somebody who you really don't have

999
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:48,920
Speaker 1: much sort of tape on and anything like that in

1000
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:49,400
Speaker 1: the NFL.

1001
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:52,080
Speaker 2: So, and to your point though about the forty nine

1002
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:55,040
Speaker 2: Ers dismantling the Bengals, they had they were the second

1003
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 2: highest rated team and for my game grades last week

1004
00:45:58,040 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 2: and actually had a ninety ninth centile game, meaning literally

1005
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 2: it's better than one. You know, it's top one percent

1006
00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:09,360
Speaker 2: of games, so they would have been basically, the Patriots

1007
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 2: were plus eighteen. The nine Ers were a plus sixteen,

1008
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 2: so that you know their offense, and their offense had

1009
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 2: far and away the best week of any offense in

1010
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 2: the NFL. So there is a bit of an adjustment there.

1011
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I agree, and that that does make a

1012
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 1: little more sense than it's not purely eight and a

1013
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 1: half based purely on the downgrade to Rootolph, although I

1014
00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 1: mean it, maybe it's warranted basically what you're saying, but

1015
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 1: the forty nine as certainly their stock improved greatly with

1016
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 1: the win over the Bengals. Let's move on to the

1017
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:40,799
Speaker 1: Texans at the Chargers. The Chargers here are laying three

1018
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:43,239
Speaker 1: and a half, it's moved from three and the over

1019
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:45,000
Speaker 1: under is at forty seven and a half. I'm a

1020
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:48,319
Speaker 1: little surprised it got passed three and it moved up.

1021
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:51,160
Speaker 1: I mean, it strikes me as they're being value on

1022
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:53,439
Speaker 1: the Texans there. But what are your thoughts? Chargers laying

1023
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 1: three and a half over under at forty seven and

1024
00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 1: a half, So I.

1025
00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 2: Have no opinion on this game. If anything, I lean

1026
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:02,319
Speaker 2: towards the charge there. I have them as close to

1027
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:03,440
Speaker 2: a four point favorite.

1028
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:07,759
Speaker 1: Okay, interesting, I mean for me, this is about where

1029
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:09,440
Speaker 1: it should be. I would would have thought that it

1030
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 1: would have been at three, exactly which it was, which

1031
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:13,399
Speaker 1: had opened up. But I guess you know, they got

1032
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:15,720
Speaker 1: probably some money in on the charters.

1033
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:16,359
Speaker 3: I'm fine.

1034
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 1: I mean that the Texans certainly didn't look great this

1035
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:21,959
Speaker 1: past week. I think that's a little bit more about

1036
00:47:22,040 --> 00:47:24,960
Speaker 1: the strength of the Jaguars defense, despite how they looked

1037
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:28,279
Speaker 1: against the Chiefs in the opening week. And I'm a

1038
00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:30,760
Speaker 1: little bit more bullish on the Texans, and I've basically

1039
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 1: talked about it all preseason. I like them overall as

1040
00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:34,840
Speaker 1: a team. But you're saying this is about where it

1041
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:38,040
Speaker 1: needs to be and there's no real value on either side, right.

1042
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 2: Right, And when you talk about the line opening and

1043
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:43,319
Speaker 2: like it being bet one way, like initially on Sunday night.

1044
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 2: I don't think most people realize how little money it

1045
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:49,560
Speaker 2: actually takes to move an opening line. There could be

1046
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 2: a few thousand dollars bet offshore and move and suddenly

1047
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 2: a line goes from two and a half to three,

1048
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 2: you know, yeah, from five and a half to six

1049
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 2: and a half, and it's yeah, the market is not

1050
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 2: particularly deep on a on a Sunday night with an opener,

1051
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 2: and it's not in general. I mean, there are easy

1052
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:12,720
Speaker 2: ways to move the market if you bet at particular

1053
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 2: books like Pinnacle and bed Chris, like the entire market's

1054
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 2: gonna copy. And that doesn't mean the Pinnacle and Chris

1055
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:19,360
Speaker 2: are taking the biggest limits.

1056
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 3: They're not sure.

1057
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:24,040
Speaker 2: So it's easy to draw on artors. But some moves,

1058
00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 2: some of these moves are gonna be real moves. Some

1059
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:28,080
Speaker 2: of these moves are someone that doesn't have a huge

1060
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:30,279
Speaker 2: bankroll and they can get down and they say, you

1061
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 2: know what, I can get my thousand dollars in here

1062
00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:35,320
Speaker 2: and I'm happy with that. And other people are saying, okay,

1063
00:48:35,320 --> 00:48:37,399
Speaker 2: I can dumb you this and get a better every

1064
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:39,200
Speaker 2: place copy is the move and I get a better price.

1065
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 3: So no, absolutely.

1066
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:42,000
Speaker 1: And look, there are a lot of times where books

1067
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:44,840
Speaker 1: open up and they're probably right in between numbers. They're

1068
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:46,960
Speaker 1: debating between three and three and a half, and even

1069
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:49,280
Speaker 1: the slightest bit of money can probably make that difference

1070
00:48:49,719 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 1: right off the bat. Let's move on to another interesting

1071
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:54,360
Speaker 1: game we just talked about it, the Saints at the Seahawks.

1072
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:57,920
Speaker 1: This opened at the Seahawks minus one when Breeze was healthy,

1073
00:48:57,960 --> 00:49:00,080
Speaker 1: and it's now the Seahawks laying four and a half.

1074
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:03,200
Speaker 1: So in comparison to the Steelers game, this is a

1075
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:06,080
Speaker 1: three and a half point move here with the spread

1076
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:07,960
Speaker 1: and the total is now at forty five and a

1077
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:10,919
Speaker 1: half it opened at fifty. I personally love this line.

1078
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 1: I think this is right where it needs to be.

1079
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:15,800
Speaker 1: That's exactly what has struck me at with Bridgewater starting.

1080
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:17,959
Speaker 1: But i'd loved aari your opinion on that Seahawks laying

1081
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 1: four and a half and a forty five and a

1082
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:21,720
Speaker 1: half total, I basically agree.

1083
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:23,399
Speaker 2: I make it minus five point two.

1084
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:27,399
Speaker 1: Yep, this is it's a perfect line. It's a perfect line.

1085
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 1: I don't think this is going to move whatsoever. I

1086
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 1: think it's going to stay at four and a half.

1087
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:32,360
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be bet pretty evenly on

1088
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 1: both sides, you know, I feel like, casually like and

1089
00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:38,640
Speaker 1: we were just talking about quarterbacks. I feel like when

1090
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:41,200
Speaker 1: you think about, you know, downgrading from Breeze sort of,

1091
00:49:41,400 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 1: you know, it just it seemed like it should be

1092
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 1: worth more than three and a half points, but we

1093
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:47,879
Speaker 1: talked about it. I mean, Bridgewater is a competent QB.

1094
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:49,680
Speaker 1: He's been in that system. He'll have a whole week

1095
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:51,920
Speaker 1: to prepare. And I don't think given how the Bengals

1096
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:54,839
Speaker 1: performed in Seattle in the opening week, I don't think

1097
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:57,400
Speaker 1: necessarily that home field advantage. I don't think Seattle is

1098
00:49:57,520 --> 00:50:00,359
Speaker 1: quite as good, you know, as they necessarily team. They

1099
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:02,880
Speaker 1: easily could have lost both the first two games. So

1100
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 1: I think I don't think there's too much for us

1101
00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 1: to saund at this point. I think we both agree

1102
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:08,960
Speaker 1: that the lines are right about where they need to be. Right.

1103
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:10,320
Speaker 3: Yep, wonderful.

1104
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:12,640
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Rams at the Browns. The

1105
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:15,200
Speaker 1: Rams here are laying three and the over under is

1106
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:17,920
Speaker 1: fifty one. We were recording this as the Jets Browns

1107
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:20,600
Speaker 1: game was going on. The Browns won big, but their

1108
00:50:20,680 --> 00:50:23,480
Speaker 1: offense really did not look good. Their defense look good,

1109
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:25,160
Speaker 1: but I don't think you can really draw that many

1110
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:27,880
Speaker 1: conclusions given that it was against the Jets with their

1111
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:31,799
Speaker 1: third string quarterback and a pretty poor offensive line. So

1112
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:33,359
Speaker 1: for me, when it was at two and a half,

1113
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:36,960
Speaker 1: I mean, I loved the Rams here. I still like.

1114
00:50:37,000 --> 00:50:39,239
Speaker 3: Them laying three even though it's at.

1115
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:41,080
Speaker 2: It's not going to stay three.

1116
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:42,720
Speaker 1: It's going to move right, It's going to move pretty

1117
00:50:42,719 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 1: significantly towards the Rams.

1118
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:47,880
Speaker 2: Oh wait, actually, oh sorry, I think I was actually

1119
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 2: not thick when I said that, because you said it was.

1120
00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:51,160
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know what, like, I don't think

1121
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:54,360
Speaker 2: there's any place with the line up right now because

1122
00:50:54,360 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 2: the game's going on.

1123
00:50:55,200 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 1: But yeah, well, I mean it's it's well, all right,

1124
00:50:57,080 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 1: where do you think it's going to Because to me,

1125
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 1: I think it's going to move, especially after this game,

1126
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:02,720
Speaker 1: I think it's going to move pretty towards the Rams.

1127
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:06,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, ras I would have. I would think just based

1128
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:09,480
Speaker 2: on the fact that Cleveland is I assume I have

1129
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:11,440
Speaker 2: not watched the game, as as you'll.

1130
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:14,560
Speaker 1: Know, I was at bowling league, so rushing it at

1131
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:15,960
Speaker 1: bowling exactly.

1132
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:18,840
Speaker 2: So I don't know how well Cleveland actually played in

1133
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:21,680
Speaker 2: winning twenty three to three, but I would have given

1134
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:23,279
Speaker 2: they won twenty three to three. I would think that

1135
00:51:23,320 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 2: they probably played better than expected.

1136
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 1: They didn't, I'm not all right. So honestly, you weren't watching,

1137
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:30,759
Speaker 1: they didn't. I mean they scored, you know, one of

1138
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 1: the touchdowns was just a ninety yard sort of short

1139
00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 1: slant and run by Odell Beckham. Baker Mayfield did not

1140
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:39,839
Speaker 1: look good throughout the game. They really didn't. I think

1141
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:41,760
Speaker 1: if you watch that game, you do not come away

1142
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:45,440
Speaker 1: impressed with the Browns. But regardless, what would one performance.

1143
00:51:45,440 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 1: I guess this early move the line that much because

1144
00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:50,920
Speaker 1: to me, Rams laying three seemed too.

1145
00:51:50,800 --> 00:51:54,279
Speaker 3: Light, just that the look ahead spread. So I'm going to.

1146
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:56,000
Speaker 1: Expect this to move closer to four, and I would

1147
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 1: get in on it at three personally, you.

1148
00:51:58,080 --> 00:52:00,880
Speaker 2: Know, one game, you know, I I don't overreact, but

1149
00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:05,080
Speaker 2: like extreme performances can move lines in my opinion, like

1150
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:09,680
Speaker 2: the Ravens Week one game. Really, I think that the

1151
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:13,680
Speaker 2: Ravens rating four points and my numbers maybe a little more.

1152
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 2: I think San Fran their performance against Cincinnati moved on

1153
00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:20,720
Speaker 2: three points in my numbers. So right now, going before

1154
00:52:20,760 --> 00:52:23,720
Speaker 2: the game, I made it Rams minus four and a half.

1155
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:27,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's exactly where. I don't think that this game

1156
00:52:27,480 --> 00:52:29,600
Speaker 1: is necessarily going to move it that much. I don't

1157
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:30,879
Speaker 1: think people are going to look and be like, oh

1158
00:52:30,880 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 1: my god, the Browns are terrible, but they're certainly not

1159
00:52:33,600 --> 00:52:34,680
Speaker 1: going to look at it and be like, wow, I

1160
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:37,319
Speaker 1: gotta give the Browns more credit here. To me, it

1161
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:39,560
Speaker 1: was much more about the fact that, yeah, four, four

1162
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 1: and a half, that's where I think it should be,

1163
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:43,400
Speaker 1: and I think that's where it's probably going to go

1164
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:44,399
Speaker 1: in the end.

1165
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:45,279
Speaker 3: I could be wrong.

1166
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:46,960
Speaker 1: It opened it two and a half, which shocked me,

1167
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:48,799
Speaker 1: so I would still get in on it even at

1168
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:51,040
Speaker 1: the key number three, and I think it's going to.

1169
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 3: Move probably a little more. But we will see what.

1170
00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:56,279
Speaker 1: The reaction is here after this Monday night game. Let's

1171
00:52:56,280 --> 00:52:58,960
Speaker 1: go to our final game, Bears at your Redskins. The

1172
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:01,439
Speaker 1: Bears are laying four and the over under is at

1173
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:02,040
Speaker 1: forty two.

1174
00:53:02,480 --> 00:53:03,239
Speaker 3: What do you think here?

1175
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:05,840
Speaker 2: I will not have a play on this game. I

1176
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:11,680
Speaker 2: make it right around two and a half, but the

1177
00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:15,880
Speaker 2: Redskins do. I haven't gone through and finalized my snapcount

1178
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:19,600
Speaker 2: projections and everything for a player model, and the Redskins

1179
00:53:19,640 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 2: do have some injuries in their defense a secondary and

1180
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:28,239
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna stay away from this, at least at

1181
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:28,839
Speaker 2: the current price.

1182
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:30,680
Speaker 3: I agree.

1183
00:53:31,160 --> 00:53:32,480
Speaker 1: I don't think this is a game that you can

1184
00:53:32,520 --> 00:53:35,359
Speaker 1: really touch because I don't think that it's I think

1185
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:38,439
Speaker 1: the Redskins have impressed me a little bit, just because

1186
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 1: I really think I expected them to look more like

1187
00:53:41,320 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 1: the Giants, and they've certainly been a little better in

1188
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:46,920
Speaker 1: the early going, at least from the eye test. And

1189
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:51,120
Speaker 1: the Bears, I really just don't know. At some point

1190
00:53:51,120 --> 00:53:52,839
Speaker 1: they're gonna have to do something with the offense because

1191
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:56,879
Speaker 1: Mitchell Trubisky looks terrible. It's not creative at this point,

1192
00:53:56,920 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 1: which is surprising being it's Matt Naggi. But at the

1193
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:03,359
Speaker 1: Bear's laying four, it's just not something. It's not something

1194
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 1: where I would have a great feel for, no matter

1195
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:08,799
Speaker 1: what really happened to it. And the over under at

1196
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:11,239
Speaker 1: forty two again it's a round where I would think.

1197
00:54:11,280 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 1: So for me, this is stay away game. And it

1198
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:15,600
Speaker 1: sounds like you feel the same, right yep, All right,

1199
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:17,520
Speaker 1: my friend, Well that's it. We made it through all

1200
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:19,439
Speaker 1: of them. I'm really glad that you could cut short

1201
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:21,759
Speaker 1: your bowling league a little bit and join me for

1202
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:22,120
Speaker 1: this one.

1203
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:23,759
Speaker 3: You provided a lot of great insight. I hope we

1204
00:54:23,760 --> 00:54:24,360
Speaker 3: can do it again.

1205
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:26,319
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for having me, Dan, I enjoyed

1206
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:27,279
Speaker 2: it all right.

1207
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:29,760
Speaker 1: Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM.

1208
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:32,759
Speaker 1: Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app and use

1209
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:35,200
Speaker 1: the promo code Harris to get your risk free five

1210
00:54:35,280 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 1: hundred dollars wager. And don't forget to enter our September

1211
00:54:38,120 --> 00:54:41,040
Speaker 1: contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin Kamara helmet.

1212
00:54:41,280 --> 00:54:43,239
Speaker 1: Just leave a review for the show on iTunes or

1213
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:46,240
Speaker 1: Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest

1214
00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:48,879
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com. We'll be back later this week

1215
00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:50,680
Speaker 1: giving some of our best bets for Week three.

1216
00:54:51,120 --> 00:55:01,040
Speaker 3: I'll talk to you then. Normally