1 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:08,639 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 2 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:12,040 Speaker 1: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 3 00:00:12,039 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 4 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 1: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 5 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 6 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 7 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 8 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, 9 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Paul, I 10 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: want you to bring in dan Ives, but let me 11 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 1: give you some pre COVID comparisons. Pre COVID one hundred 12 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:49,160 Speaker 1: and twenty six billion revenue one two six has become 13 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 1: two four to three. Okay, ebit do down the income statement, 14 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 1: throwing some balance sheet joy that only Dan Ives understands. 15 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:02,279 Speaker 1: Fifty six billion pre code COVID. They've done terrible. It's 16 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty five billion now fifth that they've 17 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 1: done on the edge of a double. Yeah, a triple, 18 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 1: excuse me a triple. And then let me just get 19 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: down to what I care about. I just doesn't care 20 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:17,479 Speaker 1: about free cash flow free cashlow thirty eight billion. It's 21 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:21,319 Speaker 1: basically a double pre covid to where we are. This 22 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 1: company is failing. Why don't you bring in the good 23 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 1: guy from Wedbush. 24 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 2: Our good friend Dan, I's Wedbush Securities senior equity analysts. 25 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 3: So Dan, we got a good look at a couple 26 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 3: of the. 27 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 2: Real stalwarts in the tech space last night. Microsoft and Alphabet. 28 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 2: I know you you don't cover Alphabet, but I know 29 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 2: you've got some thoughts there. But let's just start with Microsoft. There, 30 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 2: our good friends in Seattle. It seemed like a solid 31 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 2: quarter across the board here. I mean, I know the 32 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 2: stocks reflected that over the last year. What did you 33 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 2: take away from our good friends at Microsoft. 34 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 4: I mean, look, I think they should print this press 35 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 4: release off and conference call and put in the loop. 36 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 4: I mean, if you look, the cloud numbers here are 37 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 4: off the charts. Co Pilot. Remember this is all about 38 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 4: AI co pilot. You have over a million customers now 39 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:15,799 Speaker 4: from a subscriber perspective. Enterprise are lining up Monzians here. 40 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 4: This is just the start of the revolution. I think 41 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 4: this is as bullish as we could have expected. 42 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 1: Jennives go out three years I was talking with our 43 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,959 Speaker 1: great Joel Lovington this morning about you know the timeline out. 44 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 1: I want you to be an adult. I don't care 45 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 1: about the next trading day. I don't even care how 46 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 1: we get Microsoft to Valentine's Day. Give me twenty twenty six. 47 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 1: Where is this juggernaut? Then? 48 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 4: I think it's somewhere between four to five trillion. I mean, 49 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 4: but Tom muld, you put some numbers around it, please. 50 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:49,919 Speaker 4: There's an incremental one hundred to one hundred and twenty 51 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:55,799 Speaker 4: five billion of cloud revenue not reflected in the street numbers. 52 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,800 Speaker 4: If you put that into EPs, I mean you're really 53 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 4: essentially looking at what could be an incremental three to 54 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 4: four hours of EPs that's now refucked in the stytum. 55 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 1: Yeah. While I was on the conference call and I 56 00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: said to Satya, I said, don't get rid of Diablo 57 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 1: for but tell me about Activision because I looked at 58 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,960 Speaker 1: the free cash flow explosion, and everybody's been out of 59 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: shape about the revenue of EC division. I'm looking at 60 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 1: the profit from day one. It's larger than what we 61 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:29,640 Speaker 1: would call Windows business. What does profit AC division do 62 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 1: out two years, three years? 63 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 4: Well, I think it's really about the cross sell opportunity. 64 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 4: I mean that that's something that probably could increase another 65 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 4: twenty twenty five percent for me from profitability perspective, that's 66 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 4: just going to give them more and more of a 67 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 4: talent because in the in the scheme of things that's 68 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 4: around the error, you know, relative to the overall business 69 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 4: or what they're doing now, they're just broadening out in 70 00:03:55,480 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 4: the consumer and on the enterprise, gaining more more strength. 71 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 4: And you look at the numbers, the numbers are just 72 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 4: their job jo dropping. 73 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 1: They're truly folks. From the scope and scale there's to me, 74 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: it's the Rockefeller build up back in the eighteen nineties 75 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 1: to nineteen twenty Paul linked in up ninety percent. 76 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 2: It's just amazing. Hey Dan, I know you don't cover 77 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 2: Alphabet per se, but what do you think You know 78 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:24,480 Speaker 2: this just AI and chat ept for our friends in Seattle. 79 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 2: What does that mean for kind of the global search business? 80 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,280 Speaker 4: But I think look, if you look at Alphabet, the advertising, 81 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 4: even though you know some could sort of split hairs here, 82 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 4: I think actually really strong. We saw from YouTube and 83 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 4: a lot of their assets. I think the big thing 84 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 4: on Alphabet is just what's happened Google Cloud. You look 85 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 4: at that some of the parts. I mean, they're just 86 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 4: starting to tapp into that massive opportunity in the cloud. 87 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 4: And we've talked about all of my colleagues got deviit 88 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 4: that could add thirty to forty dollars per share to 89 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 4: the to the Google Store. 90 00:04:58,600 --> 00:04:58,840 Speaker 3: You know. 91 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:04,799 Speaker 1: I just real little simple here, Apple tomorrow, Amazon tomorrow. 92 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:06,599 Speaker 1: What do you expect? 93 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 4: Look New York City, cab drivers, parish on Apple, you know, 94 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 4: in terms of units and everything. And I think China's 95 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 4: actually been relatively stable. I think that's gonna be a 96 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 4: breadth of fresh air from Cooking Cooper Tino on units, 97 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 4: on services and on Amazon. And the big story is 98 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 4: gonna be the i'll call it a mini turnaround that 99 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 4: they're seeing on e commerce as well as cloud. We're 100 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:32,719 Speaker 4: gonna look at the end of this week and say, 101 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 4: big text delivering these knee jerk reactions I view as 102 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 4: kind of table scraps. 103 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 2: All right, Dan, So, I mean, I think you know 104 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 2: the big thing for Apple is China. So just give 105 00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:46,359 Speaker 2: us a sense how you think that's going to be 106 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 2: play out, or how do you think Tim Cook's gonna 107 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 2: frame that out? Tomorrow night. 108 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 4: I think he's going to talk about demand has been 109 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 4: relatively stable. There are some pockets of weakness Huawei competition, 110 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,719 Speaker 4: but overall, the upgrade opportunities in the ESP's look strong 111 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 4: in the region. I mean it's our view that units 112 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 4: show growth this year. The streets now bacon in obviously 113 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 4: five to ten percent decline. So if you start to 114 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:16,720 Speaker 4: hear that from Cook along with services double digit growth, 115 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 4: you look, what's happened? Or free cash or he always 116 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,600 Speaker 4: talks about. I mean, you start to now get a 117 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 4: stock that should be closer to fifty rather than you know. 118 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:31,160 Speaker 1: I got thirty seconds, dan Ice use of cash? When 119 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:33,160 Speaker 1: did they get off their butt? Sweeney wants them to 120 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 1: raise the dividend. He sent a note out there this 121 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 1: morning to amihood they get a raise, a dividends, sheer, 122 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: buy back bond issuance. When does Microsoft grow up and 123 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:43,239 Speaker 1: act like a blue chip? 124 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, And they talked about that Sweeney activist situation and 125 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,159 Speaker 4: Nate looking and I think that's something. Over the next 126 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 4: six twelve months, there's gonna be some massive deployment of 127 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 4: capitol olt kid just given the generating more cash in 128 00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 4: some countries here. 129 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 1: You know, this just came in rich from the Netherlands 130 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:04,479 Speaker 1: just emailed it her the middle of the day. That's 131 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 1: a hell of a man cave on YouTube, folks, you 132 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 1: got the ives sports man cave. What do you got 133 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 1: in the paraphernalia behind you there? 134 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 4: I hope we got our of course. Pete Penn state 135 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 4: we are giants Island. There's got my bon Jovi stuff. 136 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: You got your banjo? Is it early bon Jovi back 137 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 1: with the skull t shirts or is it later bon Jovi? 138 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 1: Suburban review? Okay, when Michael Brower mixed it, that's good Dan, 139 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 1: I's are on John bon Jovi, Thank you so much. 140 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 1: Good morning Michael Brower who mixed all those great kids. 141 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 1: Right now on the FED she won't fly bowing anymore. 142 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 1: Julia Carnado Jones's micro Paul, I'm kidding micro policy perspectives 143 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 1: here on FED Day, Julia, I'm gonna posit the same question, 144 00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 1: which I think is the ambiguity of what to do 145 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 1: with the nominal rate where it is, and that, folks, 146 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 1: the math here is the yield of picure duration the 147 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 1: ten year minus a new wicked small inflation, a disinflationary 148 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 1: statistic which gives you a high real yield. Julie, how 149 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: should the Fed respond to where the nominal the current 150 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: ten year real yield is. 151 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 5: Well, I think that the FED trade off ahead of them. 152 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 5: They can not be in a rush. At the same time, 153 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:35,720 Speaker 5: it's there's no denying now that the inflation trend is 154 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 5: definitely outpacing their expectations, and a sequence of cuts to 155 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:43,680 Speaker 5: the nominal rate is the right way to balance risks 156 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 5: to keep that real yield from tightening. So I think 157 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 5: the direction of travel is pretty clear, and what we 158 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 5: will look to hear from j. Powell is some sense 159 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:58,440 Speaker 5: of strategy and timing and cadence right, and what exactly 160 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 5: they're looking at to trigger this process? 161 00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 1: Are they slaves to the green span measured? Which I 162 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 1: think everybody knows so and listening to me for years, 163 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:11,080 Speaker 1: I totally disagree with my good friend doctor Greenspan on 164 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 1: But are they just completely slaves to it all costs 165 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 1: be measured? 166 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:20,559 Speaker 5: I don't think so. I wouldn't. I would say it's 167 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 5: it's a little bit more nuanced. They did say that 168 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 5: they could move methodically, or that's what Governor Waller signaled, 169 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 5: and we'll see if Chair Powell repeats that word today. 170 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 5: What is methodical? Well, it sort of suggests they won't 171 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 5: be moving in you know, fifty or seventy five basis 172 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:42,199 Speaker 5: point moves, that they will be moving in twenty five 173 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 5: basis point increments. But I expect a lot less sort 174 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:49,440 Speaker 5: of rigid forward guidance. That doesn't mean twenty five basis 175 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 5: points every meeting or you know, every other meeting. It's 176 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 5: going to be dependent on the data. Could be faster 177 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 5: or slower, But it does seem like they are ruled 178 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 5: out chunkier moves in the initial phases of this process. Again, 179 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 5: as long as the economy cooperates. If we get you know, 180 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 5: companies laying off workers, certainly that would change the landscape 181 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 5: and they could move a lot faster. But I think 182 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 5: in the current environment where the labor market looks pretty healthy, 183 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 5: a lot cooler but pretty healthy, growth is fine, and 184 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:29,560 Speaker 5: inflation is cooling quite rapidly, they the intention seems to 185 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:33,440 Speaker 5: be dare I say, move at a measured pace and. 186 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 2: Julia, but there's a lot of folks out there, a 187 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:39,079 Speaker 2: lot of folks that you know, look at real time 188 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 2: data and say, hey, this FED inflation is already down, 189 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:45,959 Speaker 2: the economy is slowing. Now is the time? Why wait 190 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 2: to see the rear view mirror data confirm what we 191 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 2: already know, which is economy is slowing, inflation is tame. 192 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 2: Let's go now. 193 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:56,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a it's a fine balance, you know. Again, 194 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 5: you're right. We look at g Q four GDP, it's 195 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 5: quite an impressive but again that's Q four. We're in 196 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,959 Speaker 5: Q one and we're looking towards Q two. What does 197 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:09,440 Speaker 5: the future hold. I think we've seen surveys showing some 198 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 5: alarming things on the hiring front. We in our own 199 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 5: scraping of earnings reports that we do at MPP hearing 200 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 5: the same thing, that there's not a lot of hiring intentions. 201 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 5: So we could see a cooling in the labor market 202 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 5: in coming months. I don't necessarily think it'll show up 203 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 5: on Friday, because there's some seasonality issues that could boost 204 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 5: the number. But I do think in coming months we're 205 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 5: going to see softer job numbers and that could lead 206 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,560 Speaker 5: the FED to go either at a steadier pace. I 207 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 5: do expect them to move in March. I don't see 208 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 5: there's a reason holding them back. We expect as long 209 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 5: as the January inflation data don't repeat the surge that 210 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 5: we saw last January. If it looks more like the 211 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 5: last six months, which is very benign. I think that 212 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 5: they go ahead in March and get this process started. 213 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 5: I think that's what we've been hearing in feed speak 214 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 5: when they say risks are balanced, that means, you know, 215 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 5: it's time to start thinking about the next phase of policy. 216 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 2: Hey, Juiet, you mentioned kind of the labor market. Obviously 217 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 2: we'll get a good read on Friday here. I mean, 218 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean I took two economics classes 219 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 2: at Duke. I feel qualified to comment on this. I'm 220 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 2: just shocked at how strong the labor market has been 221 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 2: and how resilient the labor market's been. What do you 222 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:28,679 Speaker 2: make of it? 223 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's been impressive. It was the main reason we 224 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 5: did not expect a recession last year. The US labor 225 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:41,440 Speaker 5: market is so diversified. It's an ocean liner, and we 226 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 5: came into last year just firing on all cylinders and 227 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 5: it was hard to see a sharp turned down. It's 228 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 5: a little bit, I would agree, it is with a 229 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 5: feed it's more balanced now. Hiring still looks okay, but 230 00:12:54,800 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 5: it's slowed considerably since last year. Unemployment is low, but 231 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 5: it's crept up a little bit, and the base of 232 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 5: hiring the number of companies hiring, the number of sectors 233 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 5: hiring has really really narrow. Steve Rattner, it's just three 234 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 5: sectors driving everything. 235 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 1: Steve Ratner was out the other days doing a thing. 236 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 1: On morning Joe saw that Steve's got killer chart, killer 237 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 1: killer chart, showing how odd the employment growth was. This 238 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 1: explosion out of a stimulus lead pandemic. Doctor Coronado, who 239 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 1: benefited in the job market? Was it the haves the 240 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,559 Speaker 1: have nots? Did the middle class lift? 241 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 2: Yes? 242 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 5: Yes, I mean I think one of the great things 243 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 5: we saw from this run it Hot experiment was that 244 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 5: it did benefit the lower end of the earning spectrum, 245 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 5: and that's something we haven't seen in decades. But the 246 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 5: lower income workers. You know, it was Amazon competing with 247 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 5: Chipotle for you know, entry level, lower wage workers, and 248 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 5: all of a sudden, those workers could get full time 249 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 5: jobs with benefits at a decent wage. That was it 250 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 5: was like a level shift up for the lowest earners. 251 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 5: Now at the top it's a bit more nuanced. Things 252 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 5: like work from home allow Actually people are not willing, 253 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 5: they're willing to take smaller raises for more flexibility, and 254 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 5: so especially supervisory workers didn't get those raises. 255 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 1: Julia Coronado, thank you so much for the FED brief. 256 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 2: Do we have flexibility? 257 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: We have flexibility, Okay, I've waited and waited for this interview. 258 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 1: Robert T. Kaplan, I've done a number of books with him, 259 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 1: where they've been my book of the Summer. He did 260 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 1: a brilliant book on China and all their expansion, if 261 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 1: you will, off of Marco Polo. His definitive book on 262 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 1: the South China Sea is a must read for anyone 263 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: in the American military to get an understanding of the 264 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 1: circuitous nature of the South China Sea. And of course 265 00:14:56,760 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 1: the way the United States militaries in the Philippines is 266 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: just one example right now, And with that question, my 267 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 1: book of the year this year was Robert T. Kaplan 268 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 1: The Loom of Time. Yes, it's between empire and anarchy 269 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 1: from the mediterrane to China. Boloney, it's a primer from 270 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 1: Rocco all over to the stands where you don't know 271 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 1: they're on the map. Robert T. Kaplan joins us right 272 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 1: now on international relations. Robert T. Kaplan, if you wrote 273 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 1: The Loom of Time right now, how would you have 274 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 1: to rewrite it? Mister Netanya who's actions in Israel. 275 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 6: First of though, it's a pleasure to be with you, Tom, 276 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 6: I would not have to rewrite it at all, because 277 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 6: Israel and Palestine are really not in the loom of time. 278 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:48,880 Speaker 6: And what I did do in the loom of time 279 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 6: was I said that ultimately that the Middle East will 280 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 6: change dramatically with a change of regime any Iran that 281 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 6: will be driven by intern factors, and that I think 282 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 6: the events of October seventh, twenty twenty three have, because 283 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 6: of their very ferocity and beast reality and intimacy, have 284 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 6: probably changed the Israeli calculation on Iran. That sometime in 285 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 6: the future we're going to see direct Israeli attacks on Iran, 286 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 6: not now because they have their hands full with Gaza 287 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 6: and that Iran. You know that as when Iran changes, 288 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 6: where eighty five million Iranians are brought into the global economy, 289 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 6: that's when the Middle East will really shift. 290 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 1: James Travinas was on yesterday the former Supreme Commander NATO. 291 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 1: He was fiery, incendiary about that we need to take 292 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 1: actions against Iran. You're one of our experts on what 293 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 1: we've gotten right, what we've gotten wrong about the cultural 294 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 1: Sunni Shia debate the idea that Iran has maybe the 295 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 1: only legiti middle class in the Pan Arab world. What 296 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 1: is the Robert Kaplan prescription for how we approach Iran 297 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:11,399 Speaker 1: after three deaths in Jordan? 298 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,680 Speaker 6: Well, first of all, keep in mind that we had 299 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 6: the United States and especially Israel have been in an 300 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 6: undeclared war with Iran for years now, and it really 301 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 6: ramped up after October seventh, and ramped up another degree 302 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 6: or two after the three deaths at the US military 303 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:40,200 Speaker 6: base in northeast northeastern Jordan. I think the way they 304 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 6: have to approach it is, you know, everyone says, let's 305 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:49,120 Speaker 6: take out their nuclear facilities or their missile facilities. This 306 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:51,880 Speaker 6: is easier said than done. A lot of their nuclear 307 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 6: facilities are deep underground. I don't think the Israelis have 308 00:17:56,200 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 6: the equipment, you know, the bunker buster bombs to do it. 309 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 6: I think what the Biden administration has to do is 310 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 6: increase by degrees its its retaliation, in other words, not 311 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:16,360 Speaker 6: tit for tat. And the reason why tit for doesn't 312 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:21,320 Speaker 6: work anymore is because the Iranian strategy is they will 313 00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:26,440 Speaker 6: have their proxies attack Americans and Israelis, and the Americans 314 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 6: in Israelis will then attack their proxies without hitting Iran directly. 315 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:38,280 Speaker 6: Therefore Iran suffers no retribution, and because Iran is afraid 316 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 6: of a dramatic retribution against them, because that could unhinge 317 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 6: the domestic situation in Iran, which has been tense for 318 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 6: years now. 319 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 2: Robert, is their political will in Washington, in the administration, 320 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:57,439 Speaker 2: in Congress for such a change. Maybe imposture towards Iran 321 00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:59,680 Speaker 2: on the part of the US, Well. 322 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,199 Speaker 6: There might be in Congress. I'm not sure there is 323 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 6: in the administration because you know this is very unscientific, 324 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 6: but this is an election year and a wide ranging 325 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,959 Speaker 6: war in the Middle East may not help the Biden 326 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 6: administration or probably hurt it. So I think that you know, 327 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:21,200 Speaker 6: in our system, the commander in chief makes the calls. 328 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 6: All the powerful experts can give him this advice in that, 329 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:28,479 Speaker 6: but he has to make the judgment call. And I 330 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 6: think he's ultimately fixated on getting reelected and doesn't want 331 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 6: a wide ranging war with Iran. But you know that 332 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 6: being off the table, they have to really ramp up 333 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:45,640 Speaker 6: the level and ferocity of the attacks on Iranian proxies 334 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 6: from Syria and the North to Yemen in the south. 335 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:53,119 Speaker 2: Robert, what do you think the Israelis will do in 336 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 2: the coming days weeks as it relates to their efforts 337 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:00,959 Speaker 2: in Gaza. I mean, the response was stronger, probably than 338 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 2: maybe a lot of people thought, but it's been certainly 339 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 2: consistent with what they've said. They said they are going 340 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 2: to wipe out Hamas, and a lot of people question 341 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 2: whether that's even possible. 342 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:10,640 Speaker 5: What do they do from here? 343 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 2: Do you think? 344 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,840 Speaker 6: All right? Well, the problem the Israelis have is if 345 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 6: they have a permanent cease fire that allows in massive 346 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 6: amount massive amounts of rebuilding and humanitarian aid. The way 347 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:28,679 Speaker 6: that Gaza society is structured is that the remnants of 348 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 6: Hamas will take that aid and restrengthen themselves. You know, 349 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 6: humanitarian aid is one thing, but rebuilding aid will be 350 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,199 Speaker 6: stolen by Hamas, and then the Israelis will not be 351 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,679 Speaker 6: back to square one, but they'll be back a number 352 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:49,160 Speaker 6: of steps. Therefore, I think the Israelis will do everything 353 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 6: to keep putting off American pressure, saying nice things to 354 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 6: Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln, but ultimately to keep pressing 355 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,959 Speaker 6: on and fighting. Yes, there might be a cease fire 356 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 6: for a few weeks to get back maybe one hundred 357 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 6: hostages because Netagne, who is under a lot of domestic 358 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:13,160 Speaker 6: pressure to get more hostages released. But in the medium term, 359 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 6: in a long term, I think they keep bombing, you know. 360 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 6: You know, though it will shift from these sort of 361 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 6: you know, I wouldn't call it indiscriminate, but these wide 362 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:28,720 Speaker 6: ranging attacks on infrastructure and the Gaza stripped and changed 363 00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:35,400 Speaker 6: to intelligence driven, targeted you know attacks. We get intelligence 364 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:37,880 Speaker 6: that these people are in such and such a building, 365 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:41,359 Speaker 6: we bomb it. And they will keep doing that, and 366 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,680 Speaker 6: they will keep methodically going after the tunnels, flooding them 367 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 6: with seawater, et cetera. You know, the media loves novelty, 368 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 6: and there isn't a lot of novelty after you accept 369 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 6: that the Israelis are bombing and flooding the tunnels. It's 370 00:21:56,640 --> 00:22:00,439 Speaker 6: just takes time. It takes many weeks. So these so 371 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:04,680 Speaker 6: the media thinks Israel is not making progress, but that's false. 372 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 1: Robert Kaplan, folks, he will continue with us. Robert T. Caplin, 373 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 1: I can't say enough about his effort over the years. 374 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,359 Speaker 1: A Loom of Time was my book of the year. 375 00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,880 Speaker 1: I just can't say enough about the span from Morocco 376 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:20,639 Speaker 1: to the stands Robert Kaplan. I've got to go back 377 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:24,879 Speaker 1: because of the shock of our military at risk to 378 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:28,120 Speaker 1: the state of the Pacific, the jewel from years ago, 379 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,679 Speaker 1: Asia's Cauldron, the South China Sea, and the end of 380 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,920 Speaker 1: a stable Pacific. We walked away from the Pacific Rim. 381 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:41,200 Speaker 1: Now we're coming back with four military bases sprawled across 382 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 1: the Philippines, the debate of Taiwan. Give us an update 383 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:49,359 Speaker 1: on how you perceive the end of a stable Pacific. 384 00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:54,439 Speaker 6: All right, First of all, the Chinese love to, you know, 385 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:59,199 Speaker 6: to constantly bully in push around the Philippines, because the 386 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 6: Philippines is a weak state compared to the other major 387 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 6: states in the Pacific. But it is also a treaty ally, 388 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 6: the highest form of ally with the United States. So 389 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 6: whenever that China bullies around the Philippines, Beijing is also 390 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 6: poking Washington in the eye. I think what we've seen 391 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,399 Speaker 6: is the creation of this wall of sand where the 392 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:29,400 Speaker 6: Chinese have literally dumped sand, created atolls, built military bases 393 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 6: in a very you know, you know, in a very 394 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:38,160 Speaker 6: slow moving fashion and salami sliced fashion. So that gradually, 395 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 6: over the last decade since I've published Asia's cauldron. The 396 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:46,560 Speaker 6: Chinese have essentially taken over the South China Sea without 397 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,920 Speaker 6: the United States being able to do much. It's been 398 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,479 Speaker 6: you know, they've done it by a thousand cuts, and 399 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 6: each one so small that for us to retaliate, we 400 00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,360 Speaker 6: would seem to be over retaliated. 401 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 1: I'm going to cut in here because I know Paul 402 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 1: wants to jump in one final question on that. If 403 00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 1: it's been by a thousand cuts, what are there one 404 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,520 Speaker 1: thousand cuts? Is it relates to Taiwan. 405 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 6: Remember, the Taiwan is the northern border of the South 406 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:18,879 Speaker 6: China Sea. It is the cork in the bottle of 407 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 6: the South China Sea. So by taking over the South 408 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:30,159 Speaker 6: China Sea, China makes tremendous progress in enveloping and making 409 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:33,880 Speaker 6: an end run around Taiwan's sovereignty. 410 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 2: Robert, we've seen economic data coming out of China much 411 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:41,160 Speaker 2: weaker than maybe people would have expected with the reopening 412 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 2: of that economy. How does that change maybe the calculus 413 00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 2: of President g as he thinks about the positioning of 414 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,199 Speaker 2: China in that part of the world also easy to 415 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 2: the US. 416 00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:57,320 Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, when you have a a big authoritarian 417 00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:03,360 Speaker 6: state that is economically weaker but militarily stronger and becoming 418 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 6: stronger and stronger like China. That's a very dangerous situation 419 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:13,080 Speaker 6: because it because the regime can always be tempted to 420 00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:18,880 Speaker 6: kind of distract its population with nationalist posturing, especially if 421 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 6: that population isn't producing enough, you know, if that economy 422 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:27,919 Speaker 6: is not producing enough jobs, especially for young males, et cetera. 423 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:33,200 Speaker 6: So I think like an economically fragile China going forward 424 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:38,880 Speaker 6: with even as China is producing more nuclear weapons, more warships, 425 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 6: more submarine more nuclear powered submarines, the most important thing 426 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:48,639 Speaker 6: of all. I think it's a very tense situation, you know, 427 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,719 Speaker 6: the combination of those two factors. 428 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,680 Speaker 2: Yep, And I guess you know, from the technology standpoint, 429 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:58,240 Speaker 2: it really feels like there's a technology cold war between 430 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:00,439 Speaker 2: China and the West. What do you think the US 431 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:05,960 Speaker 2: postures should be politically, policy wise towards China over the 432 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:07,240 Speaker 2: next several years. 433 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:13,560 Speaker 7: Look, we have to avoid at all costs a major 434 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:17,840 Speaker 7: hot war in the Pacific. We've you know, the mats 435 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,400 Speaker 7: around the world have absorbed in very well twenty five 436 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:25,240 Speaker 7: years of warfare in the Middle East, they've absorbed warfare 437 00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:26,080 Speaker 7: in Ukraine. 438 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:29,399 Speaker 6: They've made adjustments they've priced it in. But a hot, 439 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:33,440 Speaker 6: high end war in the Pacific would be it would 440 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,440 Speaker 6: be like COVID nineteen. It would be like an extinction 441 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,919 Speaker 6: level event for a period of time. From markets, it 442 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,920 Speaker 6: would disrupt supply chains in a big way and all 443 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,240 Speaker 6: of that. So how do you avoid a hot war? Well, 444 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,480 Speaker 6: you get to what I call a post Cuban missile 445 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 6: crisis situation. You know, the Cuban missile crisis. Both superpowers 446 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:58,719 Speaker 6: stared into the Abyss and they were absolutely terrified. And 447 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 6: afterwards you got the hotline established, nuclear arms limitation talks, 448 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 6: nuclear test ban, treaty, ultimately detent. That's what we have 449 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 6: to get to with China. Well, without having a Cuban 450 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:14,040 Speaker 6: missile crist. 451 00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,399 Speaker 1: Dutch Caplin, I'm running out of time, Robert T. Caplin, 452 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 1: as simple as I can make it, Do we have 453 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,359 Speaker 1: a foreign policy now? After the tumult of the last 454 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,920 Speaker 1: X number of years of presidential politics, all that's going 455 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:29,240 Speaker 1: on in Washington, whatever anybody's political affiliation, do you see 456 00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 1: a foreign policy in this nation? 457 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:36,200 Speaker 6: I do, but I see it in danger of changing 458 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,679 Speaker 6: by one hundred and eighty degrees every four years. We 459 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:43,080 Speaker 6: don't have the continuity of a foreign policy the way 460 00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:44,119 Speaker 6: we used to happen. 461 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,560 Speaker 1: Got to leave it there, Robert Caplin, Thank you so much, folks. 462 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 1: I'll put it out on LinkedIn and Twitter. It is 463 00:27:50,240 --> 00:28:03,920 Speaker 1: my book of the year, The Loom of Time Lisa 464 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:05,880 Speaker 1: Mateo with their headlines, Lisa, what do you start? 465 00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:07,920 Speaker 3: All right, we're starting with the Wall Street Journal. Paul, 466 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:09,960 Speaker 3: this is over to you. It may entice you to 467 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 3: go electric. Okay, listen to this. There's a German tech 468 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,399 Speaker 3: startup picks called Finn and it has a six to 469 00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:19,600 Speaker 3: eighteen month subscription service, so it's letting people rent ev 470 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:21,440 Speaker 3: so you can kind of test them out, kick the 471 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,159 Speaker 3: tire or see what you think. It has about twenty 472 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,479 Speaker 3: five thousand subscribers. Now forty percent of those went on 473 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,199 Speaker 3: to buy the EV's after they like driving it. So 474 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,919 Speaker 3: they have mostly in Germany, but they do have about 475 00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:36,520 Speaker 3: two thousand subscribers here on the East Coast, so just 476 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,560 Speaker 3: over see, Americans are not as willing to buy. But 477 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,200 Speaker 3: just over seven percent of its American customers went on 478 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,720 Speaker 3: to buy the EV So this is just another venue. 479 00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:47,920 Speaker 3: I mean, Hurtz tried it. It didn't kind of work out. 480 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,920 Speaker 2: I know, you know, Matt Miller who he got me 481 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,120 Speaker 2: a one week test drive of the four f one 482 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,400 Speaker 2: fifty Lightning and it was awesome vehicle. And I'm not 483 00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 2: a pickup truck guy because I'm a Wall Street shot 484 00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,280 Speaker 2: to try pickups. But it was awesome. But the charging 485 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 2: anxiety exactly is there? Where Where did stop the show? 486 00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 1: Now? Worldwide? Because this is what I hear from everybody 487 00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,760 Speaker 1: over beverages of my choice. So you get the car 488 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:13,600 Speaker 1: from Miller the forty or whatever. 489 00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, he's a player. 490 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:15,320 Speaker 1: Where did you charge it? 491 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:21,160 Speaker 2: I charged at Bloomberg's Princeton offices. Actually I was down 492 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:22,680 Speaker 2: there for I was down there for a meeting. I 493 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,120 Speaker 2: forgot charge it up and booth and and my country 494 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,520 Speaker 2: club in New Jersey. They have charging stations there, so but. 495 00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:30,440 Speaker 1: Otherwise you charge it at your house. 496 00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 3: No, it will take twenty four hours. 497 00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, it will take twenty four hours with my little 498 00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:36,720 Speaker 2: on full disclosure. 499 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:40,400 Speaker 1: And I don't even have a driver's license, folks, that's qualified. 500 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:41,800 Speaker 2: Tom does not have a driveway. 501 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,680 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm you know, I'm doing hybrid bently, It's 502 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:49,840 Speaker 1: it's working. What's next killing me? It takes how long 503 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 1: to charge you? 504 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,520 Speaker 2: Well, if you don't have the big charger thing. If 505 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:55,480 Speaker 2: you have the big charger thing, then it's pretty quick 506 00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:57,400 Speaker 2: of a number of hours. But you got to drive 507 00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,880 Speaker 2: around and look for it to I don't know next. 508 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 3: Okay, we're going to Bloomberg. Now a lot of layoff news. 509 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,640 Speaker 3: So Bloomberg took a look at who is most likely 510 00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:08,960 Speaker 3: to get fired. Okay, so they interviewed economists, recruiters, consultants, 511 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:13,200 Speaker 3: career coaches. Turns out middle managers, remote workers because middle 512 00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,800 Speaker 3: managers people trying to streamline. Companies trying to streamline remote. 513 00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 1: Work from home. 514 00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,880 Speaker 3: Yes, correct, remote because you know, they want more people 515 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,600 Speaker 3: back in the office and it's easier to let go 516 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:23,920 Speaker 3: of someone remotely. 517 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,280 Speaker 1: Then, so they didn't mention people with a red and 518 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 1: blue bow tie. 519 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,000 Speaker 3: No, it's not exactly you know what I'm wearing. 520 00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:32,120 Speaker 1: Claudia Some was busting my chop. She tore me to 521 00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 1: shreds out on associate yesterday. We're in a red and blue 522 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,080 Speaker 1: bow tie for doctor some today. 523 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:37,800 Speaker 6: What do you think? 524 00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you mentioned ups yesterday. 525 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 2: I know, six days a week, I know everybody's got 526 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:43,760 Speaker 2: to come. 527 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,040 Speaker 1: In okay, quickly or one more? You got twenty seconds? 528 00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:49,240 Speaker 3: Go twenty seconds all right, Walt Disney. Parents going crazy. 529 00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:55,200 Speaker 3: They're taking classes about these paid reservation systems, travel agents, YouTubers, influencers. 530 00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,760 Speaker 3: It's all the lengths of parents are going to book 531 00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:01,880 Speaker 3: Disney vacations for breakfast, forgetting it, to get. 532 00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:03,800 Speaker 1: What you want to do is spend two hundred dollars 533 00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:08,120 Speaker 1: to get a warmed over pancake so Princess can see Goofy. Yeah, 534 00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:12,280 Speaker 1: and I've actually folks have actually done this. Yes, Ken Philly, 535 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:13,880 Speaker 1: have you done this with the twins? I mean you have, 536 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:15,320 Speaker 1: You've been in the kast Goofy. 537 00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:19,280 Speaker 2: I'd have never done Disney with the kids four kids 538 00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:21,760 Speaker 2: zero Disney, Yes, how about that. 539 00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 3: We're only doing this for America for that. 540 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,840 Speaker 1: The truth of the matter is is Lisa Matteo had 541 00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,840 Speaker 1: a bon Jovi poster in her bedroom, and so did Denise. 542 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,760 Speaker 1: Denise from the Upper Upper Upper west Side had bon Jovi. 543 00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 4: Bon Jovi. 544 00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,480 Speaker 1: We're all bon Jovi today for Paul Sweeney. This is 545 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:43,600 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, 546 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,400 Speaker 1: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 547 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:51,960 Speaker 1: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 548 00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:55,480 Speaker 1: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 549 00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:59,520 Speaker 1: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 550 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,800 Speaker 1: to the podcas casts on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else 551 00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:06,760 Speaker 1: you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, 552 00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:08,840 Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business app.