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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros MLB. This is the

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Podcast and it's be Joey P, Joe P Zapia,

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Speaker 1: my two best friends, Joe Rico and the Welsh, and

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Speaker 1: we are here to talk baseball because that's what we

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Speaker 1: do in the channel. Subscribe to the channel. This season

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Speaker 1: is just around the corner. WBC action this weekend was

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Speaker 1: really fun. I watched a bunch of games. The Dominican

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Speaker 1: walkoff was amazing. We had the United States team playing

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Speaker 1: some high school kids. It was crazy. It's crazy stuff there.

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Speaker 1: And of course today on the show, we're gonna talk

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Speaker 1: about must halves, the draft day steals, the guys that

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Speaker 1: we don't want to leave drafts without and you shouldn't either.

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Speaker 1: So again, make sure you go to Fantasy Pros dot com,

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Speaker 1: make sure you use all the tools, download the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Pros Draft Wizard and sink all your leagues for free

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Speaker 1: to use the nd season tools and the draft tools.

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Speaker 1: And I'm gonna talk with these two tools about the

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Speaker 1: players they got to have in twenty twenty six. Let's

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Speaker 1: start off here talking about players outside the top fifty

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Speaker 1: ADP that we think should be in the top twenty

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Speaker 1: five Welsh, Why don't you start us off with two

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Speaker 1: guys that you think are being undervalued going into drafts

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Speaker 1: and that you are drafting.

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Speaker 2: I thought we were gonna do like tool songs, We're

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Speaker 2: gonna like schiz them or I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I don't is tool songs really something sing along to.

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Speaker 1: I feel like it's more of a vibe.

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Speaker 2: I definitely not sing a long time. You don't get

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Speaker 2: in the car and we're like, you know, nobody's.

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Speaker 1: Thinking about the tool with the windows open. I don't

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Speaker 1: feel like.

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Speaker 2: You no, but we're just like, yeah, that's how we're rolling.

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Speaker 2: But we're not gonna talk about tools. No, no, no, no,

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Speaker 2: We're not gonna say I actually just listen to some

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Speaker 2: tool the other day. I grew up loving it. But

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Speaker 2: I'll stop being a tool and we'll talk about the

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Speaker 2: players that you guys want to actually draft. So in

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Speaker 2: this vibe of like players that you can't leave your

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Speaker 2: draft without or you've got to take, you know, the foundation,

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Speaker 2: I think the number one guy is mikel Garcia. Especially

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Speaker 2: if we're going to be taking a look and having

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Speaker 2: that parameter of like outside the top fifty, it definitely

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Speaker 2: starts narrowing. It narrows what we're looking at for an

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Speaker 2: elite player. But one thing I was looking at, and

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Speaker 2: this became funny. I thought Heraldo Perdomo was actually kind

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Speaker 2: of one of those baseline players, Like if you look

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Speaker 2: at what he did last year, he was a five

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Speaker 2: category player. And if I'm going to put a player

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Speaker 2: outside the top fifty that you know should or could

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Speaker 2: be a top twenty five, let's pick a top twenty

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Speaker 2: five overall or a five tool type of player like

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Speaker 2: Heraldo Perdomo. But Perdomo's cost has gone up this year,

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Speaker 2: So one of the next best bets is a guy

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Speaker 2: like MIKEL. Garcia, who also does a little bit of everything.

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Speaker 2: His runs an RBI leave a little bit to be desired,

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Speaker 2: but sixteen homers, twenty three stolen bases he hit two

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Speaker 2: eighty six last year. Unlike Perdomo, he's got some really

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Speaker 2: like high end batting metrics. His hard hit rate has

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Speaker 2: been really nice. He also doesn't strike out, and I

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Speaker 2: think he's a guy that you know qualifies pinning where

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Speaker 2: you play at multiple positions. He's going to get you

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Speaker 2: relatively five categories. He's probably going to be a little

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Speaker 2: bit higher end. On a couple of those qualifying at

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Speaker 2: like third, he can get twenty plus stolen bases.

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Speaker 3: I think MIKEL.

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Speaker 2: Garcia is kind of a must have based on his costs,

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Speaker 2: based on position eligibility, and he does a little bit

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Speaker 2: of everything. So MIKEL. Garcia just is always just like

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Speaker 2: flashing lights at me during drafts, and I gotta get him,

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Speaker 2: all right.

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Speaker 1: So Garcia's one. Do you have a pitcher that you're

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Speaker 1: looking for too?

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Speaker 2: I didn't mean to even pick this guy or another Royal,

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Speaker 2: but you guys both picked a couple. I thought your

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Speaker 2: names were pretty dang good here. But if you want

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Speaker 2: to talk about a guy that can be a top

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Speaker 2: twenty five player, I think it's hard to deny Cole

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Speaker 2: Reagans in here. Cole Reagan's with the huge, huge strikeout ability,

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Speaker 2: looks like he's finally healthy. You probably got to throw

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Speaker 2: out a little bit of what you had last year.

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Speaker 2: But what you did have in your very short stint

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Speaker 2: last year was a thirty eight percent K percentage. You

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Speaker 2: had a lowered walk rate, and you had a guy

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Speaker 2: that had a four to six seven ERA and expected

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Speaker 2: ERA two runs lower. It was two six seven. So

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Speaker 2: if he gets and regains where he was before. And

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Speaker 2: I think Arico has made this case like he's a

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Speaker 2: top twenty five guys. So again, based on the cost,

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Speaker 2: I have actually walked away multiple drafts TGFBI, I walked

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Speaker 2: away as my first pitcher with Cole Reagan's that he

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Speaker 2: is the highest in return. His floor is a little

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Speaker 2: shaky because of the injury, but why he becomes a

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Speaker 2: must have is like I want hitters. I want hitters

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Speaker 2: early on in drafts, and he has got the pure

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Speaker 2: ace upside. So if he can return with that big

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Speaker 2: K percentage, and really he just needs to stay healthy,

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Speaker 2: he's going to be an absolute must have outside of

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Speaker 2: the top fifty.

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Speaker 1: All right, Joe Rico, what's your answer to Welsh's royal flush?

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Speaker 1: Here two guys outside the top fifty that you think

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Speaker 1: should be inside the top twenty five.

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Speaker 4: So I'll start with a pitcher of my own, and

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Speaker 4: it's George Kirby. Now, he dealt with the shoulder injury

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Speaker 4: to begin last year. Obviously it was only one hundred

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Speaker 4: and twenty six innings and it was a four to

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Speaker 4: twenty one era, so I think people on the surface

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Speaker 4: were disappointed in George Kirby, but he did have the

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Speaker 4: three thirty seven FIP three twenty five expected FIP, and

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Speaker 4: his strikeout rate was better than it had ever been

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Speaker 4: at twenty six percent the first couple of years of

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Speaker 4: George Kirby's career. That was always kind of the problem.

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Speaker 4: We weren't sure if we were going to see massive

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Speaker 4: strikeout totals from him. But at twenty six percent, with

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Speaker 4: the volume that we've seen over the first couple of

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Speaker 4: years of his career, George Kirby could be a first

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Speaker 4: time two hundred straakeout guy this season.

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Speaker 3: The whips are always good, even in a bad year.

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Speaker 4: Last year it was one nineteen and now a healthy

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Speaker 4: George Kirby in that ballpark, I think is primed for

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Speaker 4: a top twenty five return. Another guy where you know,

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Speaker 4: to Walsh's Cole Reagan's point, you want to take hitters

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Speaker 4: for the first few rounds. George Kirby. Maybe you'd prefer

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Speaker 4: George Kirby to be your number two, but I think

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Speaker 4: he can easily function as an ace. As we've seen

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Speaker 4: in the past as well. Just a year ago, George

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Speaker 4: Kirby was being drafted as an ace, and I think

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Speaker 4: he can get back to that form this year. Now

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Speaker 4: my hitter is also named George. Funnily enough, this was

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Speaker 4: just coincidental, but as George Springer not trying to be

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Speaker 4: a homer here, But George Springer's ranking slash ADP this

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Speaker 4: year is generally about seventy five to one hundred, depending

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Speaker 4: on which site you're looking at, and it is reasonable.

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Speaker 4: But George Springer, if were talking about a guy who

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Speaker 4: could finish in the top twenty five, George Springer was

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Speaker 4: the eleventh overall player last season. We do have to

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Speaker 4: worry about some age falloff, but he was phenomenal and

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Speaker 4: made a lot of improvements, including in his barrel rate

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Speaker 4: going up to sixteen percent forty seven percent hard hit

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Speaker 4: rate was the best of his career. And I think,

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Speaker 4: maybe most importantly for George Springer, he's going to be

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Speaker 4: predominantly d ching. Last year he kind of split half

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Speaker 4: and half dching and in the field. The Blue Jays

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Speaker 4: wants to keep him healthy as he continues to get older,

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Speaker 4: and George Springer, now thirty six years old, is going

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Speaker 4: to be thirty seven at the end of the year.

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Speaker 4: They want to keep him healthy, and I think dhing

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Speaker 4: is the way to do it. So another healthy George

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Speaker 4: Springer season at the top of that order. Maybe he's

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Speaker 4: not a first round player again, but top twenty five

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Speaker 4: is definitely within reason.

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Speaker 1: All right, So we got the Royals theme, We've got

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Speaker 1: the George's theme with Joe Rico. I don't have a

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Speaker 1: theme for mine. I came to class unprepared. I just

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Speaker 1: went with good players that I think are basically being

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Speaker 1: grossly undervalued. I'm trying to look ahead to what I

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Speaker 1: think next year's ADP is going to be and who

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Speaker 1: could crack that top twenty five. And the first guy

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Speaker 1: that just jumps off the page to me is Roman Anthony.

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Speaker 1: I think he is absolutely going to be the next

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Speaker 1: star of the Boston Red Sox. When you look at

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Speaker 1: this slash of batting average and OBP and slugging percentage

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Speaker 1: of the minor leagues, it was all star potential stuff.

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Speaker 1: That's what you're looking for. I know it was a

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Speaker 1: little slow start to his major league care last year,

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Speaker 1: but that's that's a lot of rookies. It's most rookies,

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Speaker 1: no matter how big the upside play is. I look

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Speaker 1: at Roman Anthony and I look at the swing. I

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Speaker 1: look at what he delivers in terms of contact, in

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Speaker 1: terms of power, the lefty in Fenway Park, I got

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Speaker 1: all those things that you just love to see from

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Speaker 1: Roman Anthony. I think he can deliver on all that promise.

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Speaker 1: And then the other guy, to me is another one

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Speaker 1: where you know, you guys talked about like George Kirby,

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Speaker 1: I feel good about his My ace Cole Reagan's. I'm

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Speaker 1: still a little shaky on because of the durability factor.

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Speaker 1: My guy has no durability factors. He makes thirty starts

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Speaker 1: every year for the last three years. He strikes out

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Speaker 1: two hundred guys every year for the last three years.

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Speaker 1: It's Freddy Peralta who's pitching for a contract. He's in

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Speaker 1: fantastic shape. I washed the pits in yesterday's game as well,

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Speaker 1: just to see I was going in the spring a

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Speaker 1: little bit rough. In the first inning, second inning, he

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Speaker 1: looked fantastic. Obviously, you know he's working on things starwing

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Speaker 1: a lot of change ups. So you can't always take

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Speaker 1: these spring starts too seriously. What you want to see

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Speaker 1: is the feel for pitching, and you want to see

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Speaker 1: how they, you know, come off the mound. Do they

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Speaker 1: look good? Is the fastball sharp? All that stuff. Everything

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Speaker 1: was for Freddy Peralta. So again, a guy annually who

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Speaker 1: gives you a you know, mid to low three era

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Speaker 1: two hunch of strikeouts thirty starts, that's what I want.

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Speaker 1: And look, some of these players too contextually, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're looking for, you know, a guy like I

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Speaker 1: would say Cole Reagan's big strikeout potential.

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Speaker 3: We know that in the head to.

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Speaker 1: Head leagues is huge if you know BP leagues. George

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Speaker 1: Springer huge asset as well, potentially for you there, and

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Speaker 1: guys like Freddie Peralta again, head to head leagues, guys

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Speaker 1: who make starts every single week. It's very important. All right,

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Speaker 1: We're gonna transition here to some mid round steals. These

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Speaker 1: are players outside the top one twenty five ADP that

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Speaker 1: we think should be going inside the top seventy five.

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Speaker 1: So basically this is about value. Joe Rico, why don't

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Speaker 1: you kick things off here with your two players that

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Speaker 1: you've kind of circled here in this range.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I didn't mean to continue a theme, but

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Speaker 4: these are both Miami Marlins players and it's completely unintentional.

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Speaker 4: But we'll start with Jacob Marcy and I know, well,

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Speaker 4: should I have been in on Jacob Marcy going back

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Speaker 4: to at least our live show in Arizona, if not

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Speaker 4: even before so. I mentioned on a show a couple

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Speaker 4: of weeks ago that the three year way that projections

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Speaker 4: look at a player, they look back over the last

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Speaker 4: couple of seasons is really important. Looking at the most

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Speaker 4: recent sample size can be deceiving. But on the other

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Speaker 4: side of that, there are players that drastically change their makeup,

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Speaker 4: and I think Jacob Marcy is one of those guys

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Speaker 4: who did in twenty twenty five drastically change his approach

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Speaker 4: of the plate, and the projections haven't really captured that.

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Speaker 3: They think he's going to be a two to.

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Speaker 4: Thirty hitter across the board two twenty five, two thirty

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Speaker 4: seven to two thirty. He hit two ninety two last year.

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Speaker 4: When I look at the plate discipline metrics, I think

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Speaker 4: he can repeat that at least in the two sixty

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Speaker 4: two to seventy range. He doesn't chase, makes a lot

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Speaker 4: of contact, is not swing and miss. He is going

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Speaker 4: to have secure playing time, really good defensive player, and

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Speaker 4: we saw just last year a forty seven steel fourteen

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Speaker 4: home run campaign over just ninety eight games.

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Speaker 3: A triple A.

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Speaker 4: He gets called up five homers, fourteen steals over just

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Speaker 4: fifty five games. I think the runway is clear for

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Speaker 4: Jacob Marci to be at the very least a top

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Speaker 4: one hundred player this season, and I think he can

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Speaker 4: get inside the top seventy five as well. And then

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Speaker 4: if I'm going to talk about the other player, and

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Speaker 4: that's Sandy al Contra. You know, the Tommy John honeymoon

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Speaker 4: thing I think is real. You know, the first year

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Speaker 4: players come back and they tend to struggle with command

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Speaker 4: to control a little bit. In Sandy, it was a

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Speaker 4: rough first half, no question about it, but he did

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Speaker 4: settle down over the final eight starts of the year.

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Speaker 4: He looked really good, looked more like classic Sandy. And

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Speaker 4: even in that first returning year from Tommy John it

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Speaker 4: was one hundred and seventy four innings. I think we

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Speaker 4: can get back to the two hundred plus range. I

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Speaker 4: think the strikeouts are going to rebound, and that command,

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Speaker 4: like most guys in their second year back from Tommy John,

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Speaker 4: should be quite a bit better than it was. It

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Speaker 4: was only a seven point seven percent walk rate, but

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Speaker 4: I think Sandy can get back to the five to

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Speaker 4: six percent range, give you that good whip and give

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Speaker 4: you that volume, and you can function as an sp

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Speaker 4: one given how many innings he's going to pitch this year.

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Speaker 1: All right, Welsh, I don't know if you've got a

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Speaker 1: theme here. I kind of want to break the streak

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Speaker 1: a little bit. So tell me about two players that

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Speaker 1: you think are steals outside the top one twenty five

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Speaker 1: ADP that should be really more like in the top

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Speaker 1: seventy five at least maybe going to next year's drafts.

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Speaker 2: Closest theme I have is they both play in like

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Speaker 2: the state of California currently. That's about That's about as

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Speaker 2: good as I can do for you. Number one, very

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Speaker 2: popular name. I think the EIGHTYP outside of the top

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Speaker 2: one twenty five is going to start to adjust for

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Speaker 2: this guy because we've talked about him a lot. I

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Speaker 2: think Rico just did a video one of the Battle

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Speaker 2: videos with Lad Siedler and Rob Silver talking about this guy.

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Speaker 2: And in drafts, you know, in some instances he goes

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Speaker 2: really high, in some he doesn't. But it's Emmit Shean,

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Speaker 2: who we've been talking about on the channel for quite

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Speaker 2: a long time.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 2: Two A two era last season, eighty nine strikeouts, sub

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Speaker 2: one whip and he is in the rotation this year.

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Speaker 2: That is not a question. That's funny because we had

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Speaker 2: this debate like a couple months ago where it was

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Speaker 2: like are we sure, and it's like, I'm sure. Like

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Speaker 2: if there's anybody that's getting booted from the rotation and

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Speaker 2: ain't m Michihan, it's with the Rokie stuff. And obviously

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Speaker 2: that's kind of you know, falling apart. But you know

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Speaker 2: the negatives are this team has been in like you know,

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Speaker 2: six man rotation. Hell, they're going to kind of keep

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Speaker 2: rolling with. But Emmit Sheen is starting to look like

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Speaker 2: he has got elite peripherals. I mean, because we focus

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Speaker 2: on Blake Snow, we focus on Tyler Glass and obviously

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Speaker 2: Yamamoto's his own path here, but like Emmachian's not that

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Speaker 2: far off, especially if you just blindly look at the numbers.

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Speaker 2: He had an expected three eer, a thirty point six

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Speaker 2: percent k percentage, an under eight walk percentage. Those are

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Speaker 2: phenomenal numbers. And he's got a really great three pitch

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Speaker 2: mix that he's going to roll with. His fastball is great,

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Speaker 2: his slider had a forty three percent with rate, and

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Speaker 2: he's going to be locked in for this season. I

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Speaker 2: don't think he's coming out. I think we are going

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Speaker 2: to get now, you know, projected innings or a whole

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Speaker 2: other game. He has not had a or one hundred

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Speaker 2: over the last two years at the majors their last

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Speaker 2: two seasons played, so they could want him to only

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Speaker 2: be one forty, but it's a six man rotation. All

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Speaker 2: that said that, like, he has got top twenty five

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Speaker 2: upside as an sp and he's going outside the top

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Speaker 2: one twenty five. So I really like Immachihan, and he's

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Speaker 2: kind of been on every single one of my teams,

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Speaker 2: and I think, you know, you can't trust on health,

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Speaker 2: especially for a Dodgers pitcher. But it's like him and

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Speaker 2: Yamamoto are the two guys I have a lot more

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Speaker 2: faith in than really the other two. The other one

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Speaker 2: is an injured player and he won't be playing in

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Speaker 2: the state of California for too long. And it's Lawrence Butler. Now,

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Speaker 2: Lawrence Butler is currently slow pacing spring. He's been on

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Speaker 2: the backfield. I think he might have traveled done the

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Speaker 2: Las Vegas thing, but he's not been in games. He's

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Speaker 2: they're slowly getting him set here. But the thing is

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Speaker 2: when we're talking about top one twenty five guys that

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Speaker 2: could be inside or outside the top one twenty five

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Speaker 2: that can be inside the top seventy five. In a

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Speaker 2: poorish run last season, he was a twenty twenty guy,

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Speaker 2: twenty one homers, twenty two stolen bases. He's altered and

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Speaker 2: as he's been kind of doing, kind of tweaking some

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Speaker 2: things with his swing. Last year, I think he got

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Speaker 2: more aggressive. His strikeout rate went up like five percent.

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Speaker 2: He lost some ability to barrel and get the ball

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Speaker 2: in the air, and he's looking to rectify that this

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Speaker 2: year with some of these swing changes. So he's definitely

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Speaker 2: got to get his own contact up if he does.

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Speaker 2: Though a two thirty hitter able to go twenty twenty,

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Speaker 2: he has got the wherewithal to be a thirty thirty

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Speaker 2: hitter if he were to be like, you know, in

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Speaker 2: the two sixties. So I personally think that Lawrence Butler

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Speaker 2: is kind of an easy bet for a player that

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Speaker 2: can be inside the top you know, seventy five. Pretty easy,

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Speaker 2: even though there's a little bit of inherent risk.

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Speaker 1: I didn't have a theme for my first grouping, and

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Speaker 1: now I feel like I've been bullied into it because

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Speaker 1: you guys have had themes for it.

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Speaker 2: Find your theme grouping over here.

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Speaker 1: So I found a theme for my two guys. I

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Speaker 1: kind of strung it together.

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Speaker 3: My theme is.

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Speaker 1: Once promising youngsters that we left for dead, but twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five they came back with a vengeance and are

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Speaker 1: looking like good investments in twenty twenty six. Those are

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Speaker 1: my two guys. So the first is noelve Marte of

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Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Red It's a PD suspension, some disappointing times there,

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Speaker 1: but people forget he's only twenty four years old. Last

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Speaker 1: year in ninety games, fourteen homers, ten steals, he had

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Speaker 1: two sixty three. I'm not trying to extrapolate because I

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Speaker 1: know it's a dangerous game, but I think nouelve Marte

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Speaker 1: has at least twenty to twenty five home run upside,

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Speaker 1: at least fifteen stone bases in him, and if he

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Speaker 1: can maintain that two sixty three batting average, that would

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Speaker 1: be absolutely fantastic. And Louelvie Marte is also going to

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Speaker 1: give you some position flexibility between the outfield and third base,

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Speaker 1: which is also a huge value. If he can carve

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Speaker 1: out I know it's difficult, there's a lot of bodies

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Speaker 1: in Cincinnati. But if you can carve out time every

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Speaker 1: single day somewhere between DH, third base, outfit, wherever it

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Speaker 1: might be, I think Mofa Marte is gonna have a

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Speaker 1: huge season, and then the other guy that I don't

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Speaker 1: know what it's gonna take for people to believe in

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Speaker 1: Trevor Rodgers. But I mean, I don't know what more

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Speaker 1: he could have done last year to make you buy in.

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Speaker 1: One hundred nine innings is not a small sample size.

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Speaker 1: It's a pretty good sample size, and he was dominant.

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Speaker 1: I don't expect a sub two era. He's one eight one.

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Speaker 1: I don't expect a sub one whip. Even if he

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Speaker 1: ends up with something in the low threes. Trevor Rodgers

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Speaker 1: here is going to be a very good investment, especially

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Speaker 1: if you can maintain the strikeout rate. When you're striking

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Speaker 1: out one guy per nine innings, that's really good and

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Speaker 1: limiting the walks to just twenty nine walks in those

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Speaker 1: one hundred nine innings. He's got a good offensive behind him.

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Speaker 1: To me, Trevor Rodgers is a steal here, and I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna take advantage of the fact that people just don't

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Speaker 1: seem to want to buy in on him, but I

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Speaker 1: don't know why. He's twenty eight years old, he's entering

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Speaker 1: his prime years. Lefties sometimes take a little bit longer

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Speaker 1: to figure things out in terms of their mechanics, and

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Speaker 1: it looks like Trevor Rodgers has finally figured that out.

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Speaker 1: All Right, we're gonna get to some late round lottery

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Speaker 1: tickets here in just a moment. Before we do, quick

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Speaker 1: shout out to fan Tracks, because Fantracts is the place

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Speaker 1: usually be playing all of your fantasy leagues in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six. You can ultimately customize your league however you want,

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00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:23,520
Speaker 1: Taylor rosters, scoring playoffs and more to your liking future

387
00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:26,240
Speaker 1: draft picks for trades. If you've got dynasty stuff going on,

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Speaker 1: it runs three sixty five. Basically, if you can dream

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00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:32,720
Speaker 1: it up in your fantasy brain, fan Tracks can make

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00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:34,920
Speaker 1: it happen. So bring your fantasy baseball league to fan

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Speaker 1: Tracks today for an unbeatable user experience, sign up today

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Speaker 1: at fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros. That's fantracks dot

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Speaker 1: com slash Fantasy Pros. All right, Joe Aurico, why don't

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Speaker 1: you give me a late round lottery ticket? That you

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Speaker 1: have in your pocket here. You want to cash in

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Speaker 1: on two guys here outside the top two hundred that

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Speaker 1: you are taking everywhere you can get, maybe even a

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Speaker 1: round or two early because you want them so damn bad.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, these are two guys that I have mentioned here

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Speaker 4: on the channel. But we are in crunch time. This

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Speaker 4: is the time to plant your flags, and I definitely

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Speaker 4: have my flag planted on Max Mounsey this season, which

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Speaker 4: pains me as a Blue Jay fan seeing what the

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Speaker 4: Dodgers did to me. But I love a lot of

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Speaker 4: Dodgers this year. Dodgers are good for fantasy and Max Munsey.

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Speaker 4: The big thing for me is the corrected vision. Right

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Speaker 4: on April thirtieth, he starts wearing glasses.

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Speaker 3: After that.

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Speaker 4: He has a nine to seventy oh ps, a one

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Speaker 4: to sixty six WRC, plus nineteen homers. He walks more

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Speaker 4: than he strikes out fifteen percent barrel rate, and he's

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Speaker 4: hitting in the best lineup in baseball at a terrible,

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Speaker 4: terrible third base position. I think third base is the

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Speaker 4: worst position of the year. Second stinks, But there are

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Speaker 4: late second base options that I like third base outside

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Speaker 4: of one or two guys, including Munsey, it gets dark

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Speaker 4: really quickly. So I've been taking him a lot in

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Speaker 4: the early two hundred, sometimes even falls to the mid

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Speaker 4: two hundreds of your drafts. And at that point, if

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Speaker 4: he doesn't work out easy drop but also very easy

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Speaker 4: thirty home run upside in that lineup, and then at

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Speaker 4: at least Garcia, guy that we've talked about a little

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Speaker 4: bit as well. Projections love him even if you look

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Speaker 4: at the conservative projections, twenty two home runs, ten steals

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Speaker 4: with a two forty ish batting average, and if you

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Speaker 4: want to look on the more liberal side of it,

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Speaker 4: twenty eight home runs, fourteen stolen bases, a two to

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Speaker 4: fifty batting average in a really good lineup, you know

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Speaker 4: the Phillies will prioritize that corner outfield defense, and atta

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Speaker 4: least Garcia is a really good defensive player. I think

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Speaker 4: we will get another six hundred plus played appearances following

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Speaker 4: a sub six hundred season in twenty twenty five, and

433
00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,280
Speaker 4: we could very easily see him return to that twenty

434
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,879
Speaker 4: twenty four type of form, even twenty twenty three maybe

435
00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:24,879
Speaker 4: where he hit thirty nine home runs. I'm not expecting

436
00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:27,520
Speaker 4: thirty nine, but if atalist Garcia hits thirty home runs,

437
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,000
Speaker 4: steal fifteen bases in that lineup. I don't think anybody's

438
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:31,760
Speaker 4: gonna be surprised by it. The upside is real and

439
00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:33,560
Speaker 4: the price is non existent this year.

440
00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 1: All right, So two big bats for Jill a Rico

441
00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:39,360
Speaker 1: outside the top two hundred, Well show about for you

442
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 1: two guys outside the top two hundred. One of these

443
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:43,879
Speaker 1: guys one of my favorites from last year, didn't go well.

444
00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:46,920
Speaker 1: But like you, I'm buying back in at Jack hag Leo.

445
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, kag I mean Keax is a pretty popular kind

446
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,960
Speaker 2: of sleeper name that's out there in the aggregate ADP

447
00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:54,280
Speaker 2: you can find on Fantasy pros where you know it's

448
00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 2: going to take all the sites and it's going to

449
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,400
Speaker 2: average out with the ADP. Looks like he's still going

450
00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:00,359
Speaker 2: outside the top two hundred as much as people are

451
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:04,399
Speaker 2: liking him, And I think, like we've talked about this,

452
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 2: like whatever, and it was four or five months ago

453
00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 2: at this point, but it's like the season as a

454
00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 2: whole last year was you just have to clear it

455
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 2: from your mind. He hit one fifty seven, it was atrocious.

456
00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:18,399
Speaker 2: Most of the metrics were pretty bad, if we're being honest,

457
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:20,840
Speaker 2: but the things that we kept holding on to was

458
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:24,640
Speaker 2: he had an elite barrel, absolute elite bat speed, and

459
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,240
Speaker 2: you know, as far as the hard hit goes, he's

460
00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:29,720
Speaker 2: one of the most powerful guys in all of baseball.

461
00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:32,000
Speaker 2: So it's carried over to spring training. I think he's

462
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:34,560
Speaker 2: hitting like four hundred in spring training. We saw the

463
00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,000
Speaker 2: one twenty off the bat, one of the hardest hit balls,

464
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:39,199
Speaker 2: and like the stat cast era he's putting up in

465
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,800
Speaker 2: spring training, and I think that level of comfortability is

466
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:44,119
Speaker 2: going to carry over. I have felt very comfortable as

467
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:46,920
Speaker 2: well that he in that debut. He also lowered a

468
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:48,960
Speaker 2: strikeout rate that was a big problem early on, and

469
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,439
Speaker 2: he was like twenty two percent strikeout rate. So you know,

470
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,879
Speaker 2: if he just makes some of those concerted changes, he

471
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,560
Speaker 2: has got the underlying stuff to be a thirty plus

472
00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,480
Speaker 2: home run hitter, like breakout Central. I think a lot

473
00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:01,760
Speaker 2: of people bel even this. I absolutely am, and I'm

474
00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:02,920
Speaker 2: taking him in every single leak.

475
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:04,879
Speaker 1: One of those things too that I like we always

476
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:06,720
Speaker 1: say like spring doesn't mean anything, except for the guys

477
00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 1: it means everything too, Like Caglion is one of the

478
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,440
Speaker 1: guys where it means something. He's got five walks, three strikeouts,

479
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:14,479
Speaker 1: like the fact that he's having good at bats, he's

480
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 1: seeing the ball.

481
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 3: Well.

482
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:17,520
Speaker 1: I know it's only spring. I know you're getting different

483
00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 1: pitchers that aren't necessarily major LYE caliber, But to me,

484
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,119
Speaker 1: that's important because that means he's confident the plate and

485
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:24,760
Speaker 1: he's he's disciplined enough where he's taking his walks and

486
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,359
Speaker 1: he's not trying to just swing at everything there and

487
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,400
Speaker 1: he's making obviously some pretty hard contact when he does well.

488
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 2: And a guy that has one of the fastest bats

489
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 2: in baseball. He registered like a seventy seven mile per

490
00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:39,119
Speaker 2: hour bat speed. Like bat speed is supposed to be

491
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,399
Speaker 2: able to also help you with that catch up, like

492
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,480
Speaker 2: you know, you can play back on balls, you can

493
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,360
Speaker 2: you know, if you have a good if you've got

494
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 2: good vision, that bat speed is going to help protect you.

495
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 2: And that's what I think we're starting to see just

496
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 2: super young player that got vaulted in new position. I mean,

497
00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: guy who's pitching three years ago, you know, so like

498
00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 2: you give some benefit of the doubt for growth here

499
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 2: that you can throw out a year hitting one fifty

500
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 2: seven and that a huge breakout is imminent. So he's

501
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 2: still going outside the top two hundred and frankly, when

502
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:11,480
Speaker 2: a lot of those prospects are going, there's such a

503
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 2: prospect fatigue. You know, Connor Griffin is very exciting. He's

504
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 2: gonna you know, he's one of the best prospects we've

505
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,440
Speaker 2: seen in years and years. But like there are spots

506
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,200
Speaker 2: I have been in drafts, I think it happened in

507
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 2: TGFBI where Connor Griffin went before Jack kg Leon and

508
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 2: it's like CAGs is guaranteed right now. So you know,

509
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,119
Speaker 2: the prospect fatigue, even though he's not a prospect anymore

510
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 2: for CAGs is very real and he is just like

511
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 2: a must have player late. You got to take your

512
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 2: shots now. The other guy is a player that I've

513
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 2: been talking a ton about all off season. He's on

514
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 2: every single one of my teams because you can get

515
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 2: him outside the top two hundred, and it's Shane Boz.

516
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,720
Speaker 2: Shane Boz had a kind of nasty four eight seven

517
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 2: ERA last year, but he got some significant innings. The

518
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,159
Speaker 2: biggest and most important thing is he is now with

519
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 2: Baltimore and the pitching environment is better for him, and

520
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 2: he showed the splits of being a minor league ballpark

521
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 2: were critical. He had an over five v at home

522
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 2: and he had a I think it was like a

523
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 2: three to eight or a three six six era at

524
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 2: home or on the road when he was away from

525
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 2: that minor league ballpark. So you now put Shane Bose

526
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:18,119
Speaker 2: in a better environment, a lot of run support. I

527
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 2: like defensively what he's got. His stuff looks great. His

528
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 2: fastball was averaging almost two miles per hour. It was

529
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 2: close to two miles per hour more than the previous

530
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:31,640
Speaker 2: year twenty six. Outside of his fastball twenty six fifth

531
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 2: percentage across all four of his major pitches that he uses.

532
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 2: I think he is in line to be a really

533
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 2: solid pitcher this year. I think he's got top thirty

534
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 2: sp upside and he's going well outside the top two hundred.

535
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,439
Speaker 2: So change of environment is going to be huge for

536
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 2: Shane Boz. Absolutely no correlation or theme to these two

537
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,439
Speaker 2: guys except they are two players that will be on

538
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 2: all Welsh teams.

539
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 1: Well, I feel like a Ricos is Ricos did you

540
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:56,600
Speaker 1: have a theme for years? I feel like it was

541
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 1: like older sluggers? Does that work?

542
00:22:59,400 --> 00:22:59,640
Speaker 3: Yeah?

543
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 4: Post thirty year old sluggers? Yeah, I guess ARP, Yeah.

544
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 1: ARP guys, but maybe post hype sleepers for Bos and Kaglione.

545
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,399
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the patients level for Caglione was

546
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,159
Speaker 1: incredibly thin. I mean he was just drafted two years ago.

547
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 1: Let's like pump the freaking breaks everybody, you know. But

548
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 1: maybe maybe that's the theme for your Welsh picks.

549
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 3: I don't know.

550
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 1: For me, I actually do have a theme for this one.

551
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 1: It's Rookie of the Year candidates. And I got two

552
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,199
Speaker 1: good ones here, Jj Weatherholt, a guy who I do

553
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 1: think is going to break camp with the Cardinals, and

554
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 1: another one having a great spring, another one who has

555
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 1: nothing left to prove in the minor league as far

556
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 1: as I'm concerned. And Saint Louis has to turn things

557
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 1: over here. They have to start looking to the future

558
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 1: because the present is still very muddy and obviously the

559
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 1: last couple of years of the past was disappointing. The

560
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 1: Cardinals need to get younger, they need to get more athletic.

561
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 1: JJ takes all those boxes. He makes great contact again.

562
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:54,439
Speaker 1: You love that he gets on bas you love that

563
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 1: he can steal bases. He's got enough pop there for sure.

564
00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 1: And then Kevin McGonagall another guy too, where like Zach

565
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 1: mckinsry's the only thing keeping him away right now, and

566
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 1: that to me is not enough. I think McGonagall I

567
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,679
Speaker 1: compared into Brian Giles already. That's my camp for him

568
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 1: in terms of players, very similar swing, left handed, power,

569
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 1: strong kid. Again, Brian Giles was another guy was undersized

570
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 1: for the Pirates. He was not as big as you

571
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 1: might think he is. He was strong, but he was

572
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 1: not a tall guy necessarily. McGonagall is not either, So

573
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 1: I think sometimes some people like, wow, he's a smaller player.

574
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 1: I don't think there's anything left for him to learn either.

575
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 1: I know there were some people in some camps said

576
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: let him start a triple A. Even if both of

577
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 1: these guys end up starting a triple A, I still

578
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 1: think by year's end we will value them much more

579
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:40,439
Speaker 1: closer to inside the top one fifty players overall than

580
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,120
Speaker 1: the two hundred post, which is where they're going currently.

581
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 1: So for me, McGonagall weatherhol two rookies that I want

582
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 1: to be aggressive on, but most importantly patient because Jack

583
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 1: kegleone taught us last year, right, Sometimes you gotta be patient.

584
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 1: Sometimes it's not going to work out, sometimes it will.

585
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 1: CAGs is a different profile, more of a straight up

586
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:01,199
Speaker 1: slugger type guy, whereas mcgonagh and especially weather holt Our

587
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 1: guys are gonna put the ball in play more. I

588
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 1: think hit for pretty decent batting averages as well and

589
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 1: get you on base as well. So again, Skuy's a limit.

590
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,400
Speaker 1: It's a great rookie class this year, so many great

591
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 1: rookies in the American League and the National leagual Like,

592
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 1: all right, we're gonna get to some debates here on

593
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 1: the program in just a moment. Before we do, I

594
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:19,720
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595
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619
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,640
Speaker 1: All right, let's do a little price check boys. Two

620
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,959
Speaker 1: polarizing players one Welsh loves Za, Rico hats and then

621
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 1: vice versa. First let's start with a Welsh guy that

622
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 1: Joe rico issaur On. Let's debate Kyle Stowers, and then

623
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 1: we'll flip the script around. So first give the pros

624
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 1: Welsh for Kyle Stowers, who had a breakout twenty twenty

625
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: five season.

626
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, the twenty eight year old hit twenty five homers

627
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 2: two eighty eight with an almost three seventy OBP in

628
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,199
Speaker 2: three hundred and ninety nine at bats. That was that

629
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 2: wasn't even four hundred at bats, stole a few bases

630
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:58,199
Speaker 2: over nine hundred ops. Has a If you want to

631
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 2: look at baseball savant and play game, it's red as

632
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:04,639
Speaker 2: can be. It's a beautiful profile outside of some whiff

633
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 2: and chase issues which you don't want to be dismissive of.

634
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 2: I mean, it looks more like Ben Rice, and we're

635
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 2: falling over ourselves for Ben Rice this year. Expected slug

636
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 2: this past season top five percentile of the league. His

637
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 2: nineteen percent barrel rate was top two percentile of the league.

638
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 2: His heart hit rate at fifty two percent top six percentile.

639
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 2: I mean, across the board, you're looking at a guy

640
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 2: that was like on as far as hitting metrics go,

641
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 2: top ten percentile, plus he walked ten percent of the time,

642
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 2: and having the season cut short how it was. I

643
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 2: think the strikeout rate raises some questions for some people.

644
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 2: The whiff and chase rate raise some questions of like

645
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 2: what level of repeatability is there? But also like, I

646
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:45,880
Speaker 2: don't think.

647
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 3: He's far off.

648
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 2: I mean, if you just extrapolate, he was an over

649
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 2: thirty home run hitter. That's hitting in the prime spot

650
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,120
Speaker 2: for the Marlins lineup. So if you just don't believe

651
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,159
Speaker 2: that this is real, and I think again, there are

652
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,919
Speaker 2: some small cases in his profile that could be that,

653
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 2: but I think think this was the breakout campaign, and

654
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 2: I think this is a high end. The barrel rate

655
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 2: alone is the thing that makes me go sustainability because

656
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 2: if he's barreling the ball like he does, he hits

657
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,479
Speaker 2: the ball how hard he does, good things are going

658
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 2: to happen.

659
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 1: Now.

660
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,400
Speaker 2: Is he going to be a two eighty two ninety hitter, No,

661
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 2: But if he's a two sixty hitter and he's putting

662
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:23,200
Speaker 2: up thirty plus homers, which looks absolutely reasonable, he's probably

663
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 2: going to step into like a ninety ninety season. So

664
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 2: I'm a big buyer on Kyle Stowers. His cost is

665
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,280
Speaker 2: like I think sometimes outside the top one hundred. I

666
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 2: don't think it's like super detrimental, but I think his

667
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 2: hitting profile is pretty underrated, even with some players that

668
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 2: you know can put up some similar stats. So I'm

669
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 2: just a really big fan of Kyle Stowers in that profile,

670
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:46,479
Speaker 2: and I think it is going to continue at a

671
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 2: decent rate for this season.

672
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 1: Joe Urrico, you have the floor take apart the Kyle

673
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 1: Stowers argument.

674
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 3: So here's where I come out on Stours.

675
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 4: I think that he's this year's Michael Taglia, and I

676
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 4: know that's not what anybody want to hear who is on.

677
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 1: The whole role, especially Welsh, because Welsh it was a

678
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: big time.

679
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, that burns.

680
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 1: That was like a paper cut when Lemon juice in

681
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 1: it for a second there.

682
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 3: I So here's where it comes down to.

683
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 4: The barrel rate, the hard hit rates, the contact rates,

684
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 4: the swinging strike percentages. They're all pretty much in line

685
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 4: with what Taglia did the year prior. Stowers had a

686
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 4: slightly better barrel rate nineteen compared to seventeen point two,

687
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 4: but his contact rate was a little bit worse in

688
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 4: the zone. Michael Toaglia eighty one percent Kyle Stowers seventy

689
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 4: eight percent.

690
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 3: Stowers also swings and miss.

691
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 4: A little bit more than Toglia does, and he doesn't

692
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 4: have the benefit of cores, which worries me as well. Now,

693
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 4: the nineteen percent barrel rate is just phenomenal, like, that's

694
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 4: a very rare number to hit, but I would argue

695
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 4: that makes it pretty unlikely that he's gonna hit it again.

696
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 4: If you look at the guys since twenty twenty who

697
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 4: have given you a nineteen plus percent barrel rate in

698
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 4: the season and even lowering the threshold to four hundred

699
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 4: plate appearances. Last year it was Judge Otani, Schwarber, Cal Rawley. Okay,

700
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 4: those names all make sense. The year prior it was

701
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:03,479
Speaker 4: Judge Tawny, Giancarlo Stanton, and Juan Soto. The year prior

702
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 4: it was Judge Otani, Jordan Alvarez, and going one year

703
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 4: prior to twenty twenty two, it's Judge, it's Alvarez, it's Schwarber,

704
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 4: and it's Mike Trout. So it tends to be really

705
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 4: really elite players that live in that nineteen percent barrel range.

706
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 4: I think he can probably maintain like a fourteen or fifteen,

707
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 4: but that means that we are going to see a

708
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 4: little bit of a drop off at home runs. As

709
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 4: far as I'm projecting, I don't think that we're going

710
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 4: to see forty plus home runs given that barrel rate

711
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 4: where it was, I just don't think it's really sustainable.

712
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 4: And if you look at guys over the last ten

713
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 4: years who do have a barrel rate that's a fifteen

714
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 4: percent or higher, Stowers is in the ninety fifth percentile

715
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 4: for swing percentage and for zone swing percentage. The guys

716
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 4: who he is comped with in that range are Luis Robert,

717
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 4: Bryce Harper, Salprez, Jake Berger. There's some good and some

718
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 4: bad in there, but all those guys following that big

719
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 4: barrel rate year did drop four or five points the

720
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 4: following season. The last point is the batting average. He

721
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 4: hit two eighty eight last year, but I think it's

722
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 4: really driven by the three fifty six babbot. I see

723
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 4: him as more of a two forty type hitter, and

724
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 4: when you put it all together, I think that he

725
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 4: can still be a decent player. But I think you

726
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 4: can replicate what he gives you throughout the draft. I

727
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 4: think you can find the twenty five home runs with

728
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 4: the kind of a middling type of batting average and

729
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 4: a decent lineup. The comp that I made a couple

730
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 4: weeks ago on Twitter was Kerry Carpenter. He's pretty much

731
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 4: I think it'll be the similar stat lines at the

732
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 4: end of the season, twenty five twenty six home runs,

733
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 4: maybe with a two to fifty batting average, seventy some

734
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 4: odd runs in RBI. I just feel like his profile

735
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 4: something you can kind of replicate later on in the draft.

736
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 1: All right, so are you in on stours? Are you

737
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 1: out on stours? Drop your comments of the YouTube below.

738
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people I like Stowers kind

739
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 1: of at the ADP. If I can get him in

740
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 1: a little bit of a discount, I'm happier just to,

741
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 1: you know, kind of push some of the things that

742
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 1: Joe Rico was a little concerned with a little bit

743
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 1: further down the trough. But we like hearing from you

744
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 1: guys in that debate. Next player again, debate is somebody

745
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 1: Joe Rico loves and the Welsh is not as fond of.

746
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 1: It's Jared Duran. Now, Jared Duran. A couple of years ago,

747
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 1: everybody was falling all over themselves to get a hold

748
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 1: of this kid last year a little bit of a

749
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 1: down season compared to expectations. Why is twenty two twenty

750
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 1: six a big bounce back for Jared Durant and Boston Joe.

751
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 4: I think that the price had just come down a

752
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 4: little bit too much for Jared duran This is a

753
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 4: guy who in drafts last season was routinely going in

754
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 4: the beginning of the second round. Anywhere in the second

755
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 4: round you would have seen him go but top twenty

756
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 4: pick in a lot of rooms last year, and now,

757
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 4: depending on your site, between sixty and eighty as his ADP,

758
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 4: and I think that the hate's gone a little bit

759
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 4: too far. If you look at what he did last season,

760
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 4: eighty six runs eighty four RBI. Those are both really

761
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 4: strong numbers. Sixteen home runs might have been a little

762
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 4: bit disappointing, but coming off of a twenty one home

763
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 4: run season, it's not the end of the world. You

764
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 4: weren't expecting thirty plus and he still gave you twenty

765
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 4: four stolen bases. I think people will look at the

766
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 4: batting average as being maybe a bit of a downside,

767
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 4: but as a guy who in the previous two years

768
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 4: it hit two ninety five and two eighty five.

769
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 3: The two fifty six with the lower babbit does feel

770
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 3: like a bit of an outlier there.

771
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 4: He also had the best barrel rate of his career

772
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 4: at nine point seven percent, the best heart hit rate

773
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 4: at forty seven percent, and the average EGIT velocity at

774
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 4: ninety two was also the best of his career. I

775
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 4: think Jared Durant is a a lock for playing time,

776
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 4: of course, but people will talk about the crowded Red

777
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 4: Sox outfield.

778
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 3: Maybe he gets traded, maybe he doesn't.

779
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 4: But I think Jared Durant is going to play the

780
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:09,959
Speaker 4: last two seasons one hundred and fifty seven in one

781
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 4: hundred and sixty games, And I think the main thing

782
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 4: for me is just you're getting him forty or fifty

783
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 4: picks later than you usually were, and nothing has fundamentally

784
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 4: changed in the profile. He's still on the right side

785
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 4: of thirty. He can still give you that power speed

786
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 4: mix at the top of a really good lineup.

787
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 1: All right, here's your chance, Welsh to take Joe Rico

788
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 1: down a peg on Jared duran.

789
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 2: Well, I think, I mean I would kind of go

790
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 2: back to the same argument with the Stours thing, where

791
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 2: it's like, don't you think you can find replaceable value

792
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 2: for an even more expensive player. We say that the

793
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 2: fundamentally not a lot has changed, but I don't think

794
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 2: that's a good argument. I think that without anything fundamentally changing,

795
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 2: he's getting a little bit slightly worse. I mean, he

796
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 2: can't hit lefties. The talk is that if there is

797
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 2: going to be any type of replacement, it's no longer

798
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 2: will you're a brah bray you who is kind of

799
00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 2: the Kerry Carpenter for that team. He's the everyday player

800
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 2: that Jared Duran be thrown into that. Jared has also

801
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 2: seen a three year decrease. At least every year he

802
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:09,280
Speaker 2: has had a slightly lower overall his own contact percentage.

803
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 2: I think there's some fine things in his game, but

804
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 2: a strikeout rate went up this past year. You never

805
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 2: saw any crazy development of power year over year, and

806
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 2: I think the trade rumors are something to like absolutely consider,

807
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 2: especially when they're talking about, like, you know, San Diego,

808
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 2: that would be another more power suppressive place if that

809
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 2: had ever happened. But regardless of the point is that

810
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 2: though nothing has changed, I don't think there's anything exceptional

811
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 2: in the game. And you're looking at a guy that's

812
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,800
Speaker 2: going into the sixties and the seventies, and he seems

813
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 2: over priced. You see, it seems overpriced for a player

814
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 2: that has got some serious platoon based issues and has

815
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 2: regressed in kind of over in his overall gameplay. Now

816
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 2: you know, he like super talented player. I think Jackson

817
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 2: Merrill kind of had some of the same stuff. I

818
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 2: think Jackson Merril's a much safer batting average bet and

819
00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 2: if he steals more, he will like be exceptionally better

820
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 2: than Jared Durant. But I feel like those two have

821
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 2: been falling into the same spot. Really. My my main

822
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 2: argument to it is I think his skill set, based

823
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 2: on the price, that's the one that doesn't make sense.

824
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 2: And I think that's kind of both me and Joe's arguments,

825
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 2: Like he doesn't buy that Kyle Stowers is going to

826
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 2: be a thirty plus homer end hitter, So if you

827
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:21,360
Speaker 2: buy him as a two twenty five homer guy and

828
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 2: hitting two fifty, then his cost doesn't make sense. I

829
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,240
Speaker 2: don't think Jared duran makes sense. If he's a fifteen

830
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 2: to twenty guy hitting two forty or two fifty and

831
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 2: he's potential platoon I just don't think it makes sense.

832
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 2: To be in the top sixties. So he's kind of

833
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 2: a kind of a fade for me. I don't I

834
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 2: don't see any reason that I need to get him.

835
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 2: Guys like Michael Harris are going you have twenty or

836
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 2: thirty spots later, or Rose Arain is going after him,

837
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 2: and there's just like a bevy of more outfielders. Lawrence Butler,

838
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 2: who I talked about. Lawrence Butler hitting two thirty can

839
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 2: put up the counting stats that Jared Durant did, and

840
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 2: he's going sixty spots lower than Jared Durant.

841
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 1: So I think that two thirty batting average on too.

842
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: I'll say this, I've seen enough Jared Duran where I

843
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 1: think he's better than the two fifty seven. Maybe he's

844
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 1: not as good as the two ninety five.

845
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:04,800
Speaker 2: His XBA was two forty eight. I just want to

846
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:07,320
Speaker 2: point out, so fifty seven XBA was worse.

847
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:09,880
Speaker 1: But I also think when you take a Raphael Devers

848
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 1: out of a lineup two, a lot of things change.

849
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 1: You know, they needed not I mean, Bregman is fine,

850
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 1: but also Bregman, you know was you know at times

851
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,919
Speaker 1: the Trevor story carried the offense for a good junk

852
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 1: there until later in the year where things kind of

853
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 1: opened up a little bit for guys like Roman Anthony

854
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 1: with you compared Jackson Merylton too, which is interesting because

855
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 1: they're only going a couple picks away from each other.

856
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 1: I think Duran is a little safer. I agree, maybe

857
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 1: Meryl has more upside, But the thing is like I've

858
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,800
Speaker 1: seen more Duran and I feel a little bit better about,

859
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 1: like kind of knowing who he is, especially with all

860
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 1: the Jackson Meryl hitting left handed pitching issues that he's

861
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 1: had last year, and it even is good year in

862
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 1: his big breakout rookie year. So interesting debate we like

863
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:51,959
Speaker 1: havin them here in the program, So drop your comments below.

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00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 1: Are you in or out on Duran on Stours And

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00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:57,359
Speaker 1: of course we want you to be in on our

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00:36:57,400 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 1: Fantasy Fest coming up this week, That's right, Can you

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00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 1: believe it already? March eleventh, Wednesday, three pm Eastern right

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00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 1: here on the channel four hours of drama, suspense, love, breakups,

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00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 1: and of course fantasy baseball. All those things are gonna

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00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 1: happen there The Welsh, the Worm, myself, Joe Rico, and

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00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:19,800
Speaker 1: of course special guest Scott Pianowski, Lance Brosdowski, Jeff Ponce,

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00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:21,920
Speaker 1: Casey Bubba and more are all gonna join us live

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00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 1: here on the channel, so you can watch it on

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00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 1: our YouTube dot com Slash Fantasy Pros MLB channel. Make

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00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 1: sure you subscribe to the channel. Make sure you ring

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00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 1: the belts to the ghost ing so you get that

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00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 1: notification that it has to begun, and join us for

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00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 1: any and all of the four hour live stream of

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00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 1: the MLB Fantasy Fest and of course our twitch after

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00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 1: party where Bogmann and Rico will hang out doing a

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00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 1: mock draft. You can get in on that, be in

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00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:45,919
Speaker 1: that mock draft live with them only on our twitch

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00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 1: at twitch dot tv slash Fantasy Pros. Gentlemen, great stuff

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00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 1: here for some must haves. Who are your must haves again,

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00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 1: keep dropping them in. We're trying to help each other

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00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:56,359
Speaker 1: win our fantasy baseball leagues. That's what we're all about

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00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,400
Speaker 1: here at Fantasy Pros MLB. And of course, help us

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00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 1: get the thirty one thousand subscribers this year. We can

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00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 1: do it with your help, and leading off is around

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00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 1: the corner. Oh my god, baseball is almost here if

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00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 1: you can believe it, So that'll do it for us.

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00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Joel

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00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 1: Rico and the Welsh I'm Joey P. We'll see you

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00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 1: next time. Kids.

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Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.

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00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support.

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Speaker 5: Us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

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00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 5: or Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at

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Speaker 5: Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube

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00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 5: dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB