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Speaker 3: Podcast going now by Kaylee Lines, It's great to see you, Kaylee.
Speaker 3: Around this time yesterday we thought there would be a strike. Yeah,
Speaker 3: it's different when you actually hear it. And this is historic.
Speaker 4: It's the first time all three of the Big Three.
Speaker 5: Yeah, unprecedented. Granted, this isn't all one hundred and fifty
Speaker 5: thousand workers in the United autoworkers you need walking out
Speaker 5: at once. They are being very specific about where they
Speaker 5: are striking on three specific facilities that produce high profit vehicles,
Speaker 5: only about thirteen thousand workers at this moment. The concern, though,
Speaker 5: is the longer this drags on, the more it's going
Speaker 5: to ramp up.
Speaker 3: Rick Davis was just saying they're going to level this
Speaker 3: up over the weekend and it's going to start looking
Speaker 3: real ugly when we walk into next week. We'll see
Speaker 3: if that actually happens. The President, though, did talk about this.
Speaker 3: We were asking everybody yesterday it does a strike prompt
Speaker 3: a presidential a draft US it does. He didn't have
Speaker 3: a lot to say, but a few moments from the
Speaker 3: White House, they are sending help is the message hereas it's.
Speaker 6: My hope that the parties can return the negotiation table
Speaker 6: to forge a win win agreement to continue our active engagement.
Speaker 6: I'm deploying dispatching two members of my team to Detroit,
Speaker 6: Acting Labor Secretary of Julie Schue and White House Senior
Speaker 6: Advisor Gene Sperling. Both of them been involved up in
Speaker 6: that to offer their full support for the parties and
Speaker 6: reaching a contract.
Speaker 3: We'll see if they can make a difference where Jeene
Speaker 3: Spriling has already been in touch with them and that
Speaker 3: has not made a difference.
Speaker 5: Right, The UAW hasn't been super eager to engage with
Speaker 5: the White House on this. Maybe now that they're actually striking,
Speaker 5: things will change. But what else the President said from
Speaker 5: the Roosevelt Room today I thought was very interesting. He
Speaker 5: talked about record corporate profits and how that should mean
Speaker 5: a record contract for the UAW. If there was any
Speaker 5: real question that the President was going to come down
Speaker 5: on the side of the union, he definitely tried to
Speaker 5: squad that this afternoon.
Speaker 3: Well, Mary Barra says, you know, the longer you're gone here,
Speaker 3: fewer vehicles are made, could mean fewer jobs. Yeah, and
Speaker 3: there's a real push and pull here. One of the
Speaker 3: first emails I woke up to this morning was from
Speaker 3: you with the statement from the Chamber, and it's a
Speaker 3: ripper quote. The UA double ed strike and indeed summer
Speaker 3: of strikes is the natural result of the Biden administration's
Speaker 3: whole of government approach to promoting unionization at all costs.
Speaker 4: It goes on from there.
Speaker 3: Pretty tough language for a president who is trying to
Speaker 3: be the most union friendly in American history.
Speaker 5: Absolutely, should we talk to the chamber about Absolutely.
Speaker 3: Look who's at the table, Neil Bradley, Executive vice President,
Speaker 3: Chief Policy Officer, Head of Strategic Advocacy. Three business cards
Speaker 3: and one at the US Chamber. Neil, it's been a
Speaker 3: while and it's good to see you. Thank you for
Speaker 3: coming in.
Speaker 4: Great to see.
Speaker 3: We have a lot about this from the uaw's perspective.
Speaker 3: We heard earlier from Mary Barra, but I'd like to
Speaker 3: hear your thoughts on this hot labor summer and what
Speaker 3: has brought us to this moment. Union membership is near
Speaker 3: a record low, but we're looking at a potentially economic
Speaker 3: disrupting event.
Speaker 4: Here we are.
Speaker 7: And let me start where you did. Let's talk about
Speaker 7: union membership. In the private sector. Ninety four percent of
Speaker 7: the workforce is non unionized. Yet this six percent and
Speaker 7: even a subset of that with the strikes at the UAW,
Speaker 7: the strikes that we're seeing in Hollywood right now, and
Speaker 7: the over two hundred strikes that we've already seen this year,
Speaker 7: are really causing havoc not just for the overall community,
Speaker 7: but for lots of businesses that end up being collateral
Speaker 7: damage in these fights. And so at the Chamber, one
Speaker 7: of the things that we're most concerned about are those
Speaker 7: small restaurants, the dry cleaners, the service stores who their
Speaker 7: employee bay their customer base. Are the people on strike
Speaker 7: or the businesses that are shut down because of these strikes.
Speaker 7: What concerns us the most is that no one's thinking
Speaker 7: about what happens to them.
Speaker 5: Well, I understand that point, Neil, But the counterpoint would be,
Speaker 5: when you're thinking about the economic ramifications of a strike,
Speaker 5: is the economic reasons we are at this point in
Speaker 5: the first place, that these workers have been dealing with
Speaker 5: inflation that no one saw coming wages haven't necessarily kept pace,
Speaker 5: and in order for them to keep consuming, to keep
Speaker 5: visiting those shops, keep paying for what they need, they
Speaker 5: need more money. What do you say to that argument?
Speaker 7: Absolutely, and that's why in this particular instance, the auto
Speaker 7: companies came forward with pay raises, in some cases twenty
Speaker 7: percent plus. Understand that twenty percent pay increase is a
Speaker 7: pretty good pay increase, but the unions want forty percent,
Speaker 7: and the unions want five days of pay for four
Speaker 7: days of work. Hey, hey, listen, that sounds great, except
Speaker 7: it's really hard to operate a business and keep offering
Speaker 7: people jobs when you're demanding these type of concessions that
Speaker 7: are really just going to put those businesses into bankruptcy.
Speaker 7: And so, you know, there are people throwing around a
Speaker 7: lot of numbers here, but when you look at just
Speaker 7: the scale of what they're asking for, I think you
Speaker 7: kind of get a sense of why they were demands
Speaker 7: that these companies couldn't meet and why now today we're
Speaker 7: facing the strike.
Speaker 3: Of course, Sean Fain would tell you that's because it
Speaker 3: has been so long since we've been able to renegotiate.
Speaker 3: When you wait a decade and the world changes around you,
Speaker 3: and they're seeing technology change around them. He says, we're
Speaker 3: tired of living off the scraps. Neil, can you relate
Speaker 3: with that?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 4: Can you sympathize with that?
Speaker 7: Absolutely? And listen, unions play an important role. Even though
Speaker 7: they're a small part of the workforce, they and play
Speaker 7: an important role. And so we want healthy union management negotiations.
Speaker 4: We want to get deals.
Speaker 7: But I think what we look at and what really
Speaker 7: concerns us, is that we've kind of reached a point
Speaker 7: in which both public policy and a lot of the
Speaker 7: narrator around unionization is really trying to tip the scales.
Speaker 7: And in tipping the scale to distort that balance, you're
Speaker 7: going to create the type of disruptions, the type of unfeasional, feasible,
Speaker 7: over the top demands that we're seeing right now play
Speaker 7: out in this UAW strike.
Speaker 5: Well, to continue the conversation on disruptions, economic disruptions that
Speaker 5: may have resulted in this moment. This is something that
Speaker 5: Muhammad al Arian, he was an economist and a Bloomberg
Speaker 5: opinion columnist as well, was talking about earlier on Bloomberg.
Speaker 5: Let's just listen for a moment to what he had
Speaker 5: to say about how we got here.
Speaker 8: When you have a combination of the labor market on
Speaker 8: the one hand and workers being hit by an unanticipated
Speaker 8: part of inflation, you normally get catch up wage negotiations.
Speaker 2: If you owe U a w worker.
Speaker 8: If not now, when this is your key point of
Speaker 8: boggaining power, your boggaining power is going to erode over time.
Speaker 8: So if you're going to strike, now is the time
Speaker 8: to strike.
Speaker 5: So he's saying now the time is the time to
Speaker 5: strike for the UAW. But I wonder how much it
Speaker 5: is the concern of the Chamber of US Businesses that
Speaker 5: this is contagious almost, that it's not just the UAW
Speaker 5: that is dealing with this issue of wages wanting to
Speaker 5: be higher because of inflation. That this is going to
Speaker 5: have ripple effects across the wider economy of people demanding more.
Speaker 5: And that's when we talk about a wage price spiral.
Speaker 5: Is that a real risk or is this idiosyncratic to
Speaker 5: the auto sector.
Speaker 4: It's not idiosyncratic.
Speaker 7: It is a real risk. And by the way, wages
Speaker 7: are going up for unionized and non unionized workers, and
Speaker 7: they need to go up right for the very reasons
Speaker 7: that Mohamma just talked about equilibrium in the labor force inflation.
Speaker 7: This is not a situation in which people are objecting
Speaker 7: to increases in wages. In some cases, what are really
Speaker 7: high increases in wages given our experience over the last
Speaker 7: twenty years, But there are natural limits to this, And
Speaker 7: I think the thing that concerns us is that in
Speaker 7: many cases, labor today feels empowered by support or government
Speaker 7: policies that say no demand, no matter how high, is
Speaker 7: out of bounds. And so when you look at our
Speaker 7: response to this strike, it's not just the particulars of
Speaker 7: the UAW and the negotiations with the Detroit three. It
Speaker 7: really is about this broader policy push to put the
Speaker 7: thumb on the scale in favor of labor and unionizations
Speaker 7: in a way that leads to the wage price price
Speaker 7: spiral that you just talked about that will be devastating
Speaker 7: economically for all of us. And so there are contagions
Speaker 7: that can occur here. Even though we're talking about one
Speaker 7: strike in one industry.
Speaker 3: The conversation about economic impacts grows a lot worse when
Speaker 3: you out of government shutdown. The combination of an auto
Speaker 3: strike that we have now, especially if it goes into
Speaker 3: a longer duration, and a shutdown, according to Bloomberg Economics,
Speaker 3: is the difference between a recession and not a recession.
Speaker 3: What's the Chambers message to some Hoou's Republicans who are
Speaker 3: in fact urgent a shutdown right now for leverage.
Speaker 7: Well, our message to them is the same as been
Speaker 7: to parties Republicans and Democrats in the three previous times
Speaker 7: over the last decade that we've had shutdowns instigated by
Speaker 7: both parties, is that a shutdown is a choice, and
Speaker 7: it's a really dumb choice to make. So this doesn't
Speaker 7: have to happen. This is a question of elected officials
Speaker 7: deciding that they would rather shut down the government as
Speaker 7: a means of achieving leverage to advance their policy proposals.
Speaker 7: But the history is unanimous. Anytime someone does that, they
Speaker 7: are unsuccessful in achieving their policy objectives. And in the meantime,
Speaker 7: the shutdown has real world implications. It's not just government
Speaker 7: employees who are furloughed and what that means. Think about
Speaker 7: all the businesses in America who need permits, who need
Speaker 7: government inspections, who need export licenses to be able to operate.
Speaker 7: Guess what when the government's shut down, you can't do
Speaker 7: any of those things. So it's really amazing that we
Speaker 7: could be in a position in just a few short
Speaker 7: weeks where we are elected representatives. Yeah, would literally choose
Speaker 7: to make the government non functioning, shut it down, and
Speaker 7: you really can't have a functioning that you can't allow government.
Speaker 4: To keep this from happening.
Speaker 5: There is, Yeah, but fewer legislative days, and judging by
Speaker 5: how this past week went, seems like progress is going
Speaker 5: to be quite slow on this.
Speaker 4: It was not a good week in that direction. Yeah.
Speaker 5: What we've heard, though, consistently from economists and others on
Speaker 5: this program here on Bloomberg Television is that a shutdown
Speaker 5: is nothing like a potential default, which was the risk
Speaker 5: we were dealing with months ago in the debt's dealing
Speaker 5: debate that was also about spending. That no one wants
Speaker 5: to stick to that deal anymore. So is that just
Speaker 5: the wrong way to be thinking about this?
Speaker 7: Well, they are very different, and a default on the debt,
Speaker 7: which has never happened before. We've had shutdowns, too many
Speaker 7: of them that we've had them. A default on the
Speaker 7: debt would be unprecedented, and that cosmic, like you would just.
Speaker 5: Right by comparison I sure understand how a lawmaker says, well,
Speaker 5: at least this wouldn't be that right, right.
Speaker 7: But you know, like I could amputate my arm, or
Speaker 7: I could amputate a finger.
Speaker 4: A finger is less than they are.
Speaker 7: But we don't need to do this, right, this is
Speaker 7: we don't have to go through this. And you know, yes,
Speaker 7: I get the economic arguments that mandatory spending continues, and
Speaker 7: when we reopen the government coffers get backfilled. What can't
Speaker 7: get backfilled is time. You can't reclaim time. And what
Speaker 7: gets lost for the American business community is the time
Speaker 7: and the economic activity where you needed the government to
Speaker 7: be a partner and when you called them up, no
Speaker 7: one answered the phone to give you that permit to
Speaker 7: help you get that project licensed because somebody decided to
Speaker 7: shut it down. You can never make that up, and
Speaker 7: that has real implications for a lot of industries in
Speaker 7: America who have to have the government as a partner.
Speaker 3: When the Chamber calls the Speaker's office, is there an answer.
Speaker 3: You have back channels with the Speaker right now to
Speaker 3: deliver that message.
Speaker 7: We have relationships on both sides of the isle, leadership
Speaker 7: in rank and fould, even with the White House, and
Speaker 7: so that doesn't mean that he's from the business community,
Speaker 7: though they are all hes from the business community. And listen,
Speaker 7: the Speaker has been great on this. He's been very
Speaker 7: clear he doesn't want to shut down. You know, the
Speaker 7: remarks that leaked out of the conference meeting this week,
Speaker 7: he was describing it in terms more colorful than we
Speaker 7: are about you can go there if you want. The
Speaker 7: negative consequence a lot of beliefs. But but you know,
Speaker 7: he's right on and listen, that's because he's been there.
Speaker 7: You know, he had a front row seat at the
Speaker 7: twenty thirteen shut down, the last one in twenty eighteen.
Speaker 7: He understands that no one wins in a shutdown, and
Speaker 7: in particular, it's really hard for the leveraging party to win.
Speaker 7: And so I don't think this is of the speakers doing.
Speaker 7: I think he understands what's at stake, and he's really
Speaker 7: trying to find a solution and a way forward.
Speaker 5: So as we talk about the idea that a shutdown
Speaker 5: combined with a UAW strike, perhaps you know, toss in
Speaker 5: their student loan payments resuming as well in the month
Speaker 5: of October, creating a bit more of a difficult economic
Speaker 5: cocktail than we are currently dealing with in this moment
Speaker 5: when things still look pretty strong, when all of a
Speaker 5: sudden done, are US businesses bracing for a recession still?
Speaker 5: Or is there now faith in that soft landing narrative
Speaker 5: and despite all those things a thought that will be okay?
Speaker 7: You know, I think businesses looking at their own operations
Speaker 7: and they're feeling pretty good. I mean, American consumers are strong.
Speaker 7: Demand is strong, and so if you look at forecasts
Speaker 7: from either our surveys of small businesses, mid sized businesses,
Speaker 7: you know, even large companies, the outlook for their individual
Speaker 7: businesses are pretty good. The question is is can you
Speaker 7: add enough of these external factors, particularly these self inflicted wounds,
Speaker 7: where that begins to change. And I don't think that's
Speaker 7: been internalized for a lot of businesses yet. But listen,
Speaker 7: pile a couple of these things on a prolonged, spanded
Speaker 7: UAW strike, a government shut down, Dover's apter students which
Speaker 7: has been factored in, and we could be in for
Speaker 7: a world.
Speaker 3: Of hurt throwing one hundred dollars barrel oil. And you've
Speaker 3: got quite a confluence there, Neil. I'm glad you could
Speaker 3: come talk to US today. Thank you for weighing in
Speaker 3: on an incredibly important time here, the strike, the shutdown, Kaylie,
Speaker 3: we can keep going. Indeed, Neil Bradley, Executive VP, Chief
Speaker 3: Policy Officer at the US Chamber of Commerce, let's stay
Speaker 3: in touch with Kaylee Lines.
Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
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Speaker 3: Congressman Jim Costa, the Democrat from California twenty first District,
Speaker 3: think Fresno is joining us now on a Friday. Congressman,
Speaker 3: It's good to see you, and I appreciate your time.
Speaker 3: Mary Borro to us earlier, the CEO at GM and
Speaker 3: said this strike should never have happened.
Speaker 4: Do you agree?
Speaker 10: Well? I, given our economic recovery, certainly the last thing
Speaker 10: we need is to have a strike with our major
Speaker 10: automotive companies in this country. But clearly we hope that
Speaker 10: the President s effarts with others will sooner than later
Speaker 10: bring this strike to a successful resolution for all parties.
Speaker 3: What's your concern here about a potential economic impact if any.
Speaker 3: You seem hopeful that this will be short lived, but
Speaker 3: some have suggested this could be weeks, not days, including
Speaker 3: the president's former labor advisor. If we start stretching into October,
Speaker 3: for instance, and I'm going to ask you next about
Speaker 3: a possible shutdown, there could be corrosive effects here that
Speaker 3: impact the economy nationally.
Speaker 10: Right, well, that's certainly a possibility, and we hope not.
Speaker 10: And that's why I resolve in this strike among the
Speaker 10: parties sooner than later is so important. And I think
Speaker 10: that the president's comments this morning and is sending his
Speaker 10: labor secretary along with Jeans Spurling to sit down with
Speaker 10: the parties to determine how we can bring this to
Speaker 10: a successful resolution. I mean, we've had we've had strikes before,
Speaker 10: certainly in this country, and it's certainly organized labor's right
Speaker 10: to do that to represent working men and women in
Speaker 10: this country who do so much to bring about this
Speaker 10: economic recovery that we are enjoying at this point in time.
Speaker 10: But we need to continue, and clearly a prolonged strike
Speaker 10: is not in the interest of that economic recovery.
Speaker 3: I'm sure you've heard it's being called the hot labor summer.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: We've had the doc workers, we've had ups, we've had
Speaker 3: Yellow they haven't all turned out the same way, and
Speaker 3: now we have an historic auto workers strike. Do you
Speaker 3: worry about the impression here, as Joe Biden claims to
Speaker 3: be the most union friendly administration in American history, the
Speaker 3: impression that Democrats are not always aligned with workers here
Speaker 3: that in fact, in many cases the rank and file
Speaker 3: pull a little leaning toward Republicans more, while the leadership
Speaker 3: is obviously striking accord with Democrats and endorsing Democratic candidates
Speaker 3: for president and Congress. Do you worry about a shift though,
Speaker 3: in organized labor leaning towards the Republican Party.
Speaker 10: Well, I think that it's not what you say, but
Speaker 10: what you do. And I think the President Biden's actions
Speaker 10: as working supporting working men and women, which has always
Speaker 10: been a strong foundation of his political efforts over the years,
Speaker 10: going back to the United States Senate, I think when
Speaker 10: it's all said and done, you look at the Inflation
Speaker 10: Reduction Act, you look at the Bipartis and Infrastructure Package.
Speaker 10: All of those have provided funding that create jobs, good
Speaker 10: paying jobs here in America. And certainly, the strike that
Speaker 10: was resolved to the longshoremen here on the West Coast
Speaker 10: that was a result of the five year contract coming
Speaker 10: due and the problems that we've had with supply chain
Speaker 10: issues was a successful resolution to the men and women
Speaker 10: here on the West Coast that are so critical to
Speaker 10: our America's exports. And I hope the same resolution is
Speaker 10: going to come about with this auto strike that we're
Speaker 10: witnessing at this time. And I know that the President
Speaker 10: is folks Laser liked to ensure that we bring the
Speaker 10: parties together and we ensure that working men and women
Speaker 10: and these jobs that are so critical here in America
Speaker 10: stay here in America.
Speaker 3: Spending time with Congressman Jim Costa, the Democrat from California,
Speaker 3: joining us here on Bloomberg Sound on our analysts at
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Economics. Congressmen, we're estimating that a protracted auto strike
Speaker 3: here will say weeks not days again, and coupled with
Speaker 3: a government shutdown would mean the difference between a recession
Speaker 3: and not a recession. And I wonder your thoughts having
Speaker 3: just been back in Washington for a week here and
Speaker 3: some of the drama that we've heard about in the House,
Speaker 3: a lot of folks are expecting a shutdown, and some
Speaker 3: of that might hinge on funding for Ukraine. I know
Speaker 3: I'm coming at you with a lot here. You just
Speaker 3: came back from a Kiev and I'm sure you have
Speaker 3: very strong feelings about this supplementary budget request that the
Speaker 3: President is asking right now of the US House. Is
Speaker 3: Ukraine potentially going to be the reason why the government
Speaker 3: shuts down?
Speaker 10: No, I don't believe so. I think that there are
Speaker 10: a group of congressional extremists, some call them terrorists, who
Speaker 10: simply have required the speaker to meet a list of
Speaker 10: demands for their votes to avoid a government shutdown. But
Speaker 10: I was talking with a number of my Republican colleagues
Speaker 10: over the last few days on the floor, and they're
Speaker 10: frustrated because they really believe, and I believe as well,
Speaker 10: that these list of demands that are being represented by
Speaker 10: this MAGA extreme group, even if they were to succeed,
Speaker 10: they wouldn't vote for the budget anyway. They want to
Speaker 10: shut down government. They want to eliminate the FBI, They're
Speaker 10: extremists period, and so it's a very difficult situation with
Speaker 10: a small margin. And I have never voted to shut
Speaker 10: down government in the nineteen years that I've been in Congress.
Speaker 10: It's irresponsible, regardless of which party it's in power and
Speaker 10: who occupies the White House, just as not lifting the
Speaker 10: death ceiling is irresponsible. The Speaker was able to successfully
Speaker 10: negotiate that back in the springtime with the President with
Speaker 10: an agreement on two year caps on spending and work requirements,
Speaker 10: and we need to keep that agreement, and that's part
Speaker 10: of the basis for this year's ultimate budget resolution, I believe.
Speaker 10: But we're not in a place where we can reach
Speaker 10: a budget resolution between the House and the Senate with
Speaker 10: the October one deadline looming. Therefore, a continuing resolution is
Speaker 10: absolutely critical, and whether or not we're successful next week
Speaker 10: in the first effort remains to be seen. There is
Speaker 10: I think for many of us doubts that they're going
Speaker 10: to be able to put together what would I suspect
Speaker 10: be just a partisan vote with maybe four votes to
Speaker 10: spare to pass it through the House. And if that's
Speaker 10: not successful, we could well have a government shutdown. But
Speaker 10: I think, as you discussed the supplemental appropriation for Ukraine
Speaker 10: is is separate, but there are those that are trying
Speaker 10: to link it with the concurrent resolution, and I think.
Speaker 3: Across the board, I know the Pentagon has been a
Speaker 3: sticking point here.
Speaker 4: Congressman.
Speaker 3: I don't mean to interrupt you, but he used some
Speaker 3: pretty spicy language there referring to some of these members
Speaker 3: as terrorists. Kevin McCarthy is your colleague representing a different
Speaker 3: districts in California. Is he capable of controlling would you
Speaker 3: describe as terrorists in his party?
Speaker 10: Well, Speaker McCarthy is not only he's my neighbor, and
Speaker 10: I've known Kevin for thirty years. This is a tough
Speaker 10: challenge that he's facing you, and he was able to
Speaker 10: successfully deal with the debt ceiling earlier this year, and
Speaker 10: I wish him every possible success in passing a concurrent
Speaker 10: resolution so that in October November we can ultimately resolve
Speaker 10: the differences on a bipartisan basis, a bipartisan basis between
Speaker 10: the House and the Senate before the end of the year.
Speaker 10: But we have to pass this concurrent resolution, and we
Speaker 10: have to do everything possible to avoid a government down
Speaker 10: for all the reasons that I indicated, but he's got
Speaker 10: a tough challenge he's facing with some of the locular
Speaker 10: extreme elements in his Cocker conference.
Speaker 3: Well, Congressman, I want to welcome you back to Bloomberg again.
Speaker 4: Let's stay in touch on this.
Speaker 3: We'd love to have you come in studio and talk
Speaker 3: more about your visit to Ukraine. Thanks for being with us,
Speaker 3: Congressman Jim Costa of California.
Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one
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Speaker 1: your podcasts.
Speaker 3: Well, the first time it's ever happens, the uaw's striking
Speaker 3: all three of the Big three at once. Sean Fain
Speaker 3: made the announcement late last night.
Speaker 11: We're calling on GM Winsville Assembly Local twenty two fifty
Speaker 11: in Region four to stand up and strike. We're calling
Speaker 11: on Stilantis Toledo Assembly Complex Well in Region two B
Speaker 11: to stand up and strike. And we're calling on Ford,
Speaker 11: Michigan Assembly Plant Final Assembly and Paint Only Local nine
Speaker 11: hundred in Region one A to stand up and strike.
Speaker 3: The word from the CEO at GM heard earlier on
Speaker 3: Bloomberg in a conversation with our own David West and
Speaker 3: Mary Bara, this is clearly not good news.
Speaker 12: I'm extremely disappointed and frustrated that we're even on a strike.
Speaker 12: We didn't need to get here. General Motors has an
Speaker 12: exceptionally strong offer on the table. It's historic. It's the
Speaker 12: largest increase from a wage's perspective in our one hundred
Speaker 12: and fifteen year history, along with world class healthcare benefits
Speaker 12: and many other provisions job security, etc. And a cola adjustment.
Speaker 3: But of course, as we discussed earlier with Keith Naughton,
Speaker 3: our auto reporter at Bloomberg, they're a mile apart on
Speaker 3: a lot of issues, including pensions in retirement. Let's assemble
Speaker 3: our panel for their take. Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributor,
Speaker 3: along with Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributor. Happy Friday to
Speaker 3: both of you. This is not really a surprise. Everyone
Speaker 3: knew that it was coming. It feels a little different
Speaker 3: when it actually happens, though, Genie, I wonder your take
Speaker 3: on Joe Biden's response here he's sending the acting Labor
Speaker 3: Secretary to Detroit along with Gene Sperling, in the hopes
Speaker 3: of finding some kind of a breakthrough. I guess, but
Speaker 3: I'll point you to what else. Mary Bara said today.
Speaker 3: This is her conversation with Bloomberg. She said, frankly, when
Speaker 3: you put it up, when you have a strike and
Speaker 3: we're not making vehicles, you start to put jobs at risk.
Speaker 3: It's an historic transformation. Referring to the EVS. How long
Speaker 3: can this go on before union workers start regretting this strike?
Speaker 3: Before jobs are lost?
Speaker 13: Genie, Yeah, I mean the risks for Biden are very real. Obviously,
Speaker 13: the risks for the workers on the ground are very real.
Speaker 13: I think that we are looking forward, unfortunately to probably
Speaker 13: what might be a longer strike than anybody would hope.
Speaker 13: And I think the President is trying to do what
Speaker 13: he can. I mean, this is one of the situations
Speaker 13: where he doesn't have any direct role. There's nothing he
Speaker 13: can do to force a negotiated settlement, but he can
Speaker 13: use the power of the bully pulpit, and there are
Speaker 13: plenty of risks for the president out there. We saw
Speaker 13: the Chamber of Commerce come out very strongly and talk
Speaker 13: about the impact. We know this will impact Michigan's economy
Speaker 13: first and foremost, and of course, without Michigan's sixteen electoral votes,
Speaker 13: President Biden wouldn't be President Biden today. So there's a
Speaker 13: lot riding on this for him. And more than that,
Speaker 13: of course, this is a president who has long said
Speaker 13: he is a friend, the best friend the unions as
Speaker 13: have ever had, and he is determined to try to
Speaker 13: grow this economy in favor of the lower the middle class,
Speaker 13: as he talks about from the bottom up. So there's
Speaker 13: a lot writing on this for him. But he I
Speaker 13: think his statement today was very good, and he is
Speaker 13: sending the right people out there to bring these parties
Speaker 13: together as best he can.
Speaker 3: Rick Jennie points to a statement from the Chamber of Commerce,
Speaker 3: and I want everyone to know we're going to be
Speaker 3: talking with Neil Bradley from the Chamber here in studio
Speaker 3: in just about a half hour's time. It reads, quote
Speaker 3: the uaubed strike and indeed the summer of strikes is
Speaker 3: the natural result of the Biden administration's whole of government
Speaker 3: approach to promoting unionization at all costs. I could keep
Speaker 3: reading this statement. Does not get more positive for the president.
Speaker 3: Rick does this blow back on Joe Biden immediately. Republican
Speaker 3: candidates for president are already saying it's his fault.
Speaker 14: Yeah, I mean, shocker. The Chamber of Commerce is attacking
Speaker 14: Joe Biden on his union support. Yeah, no, I mean
Speaker 14: you would expect this right. And if anything, I've been
Speaker 14: surprised that the Chamber hasn't been more vocal in an
Speaker 14: attempt to get back in the good graces of the
Speaker 14: House Republicans by really pinging on this. But they have
Speaker 14: a tricky place to be because a lot of Republicans
Speaker 14: are now looking to say, you know, like, how do
Speaker 14: we how do we get those union voters. You look
Speaker 14: at Donald Trump reaching out directly to union voters this
Speaker 14: week to say, hey, you know, these Democrats can't help you.
Speaker 4: Come along with us.
Speaker 14: We'll bash those corporations. And by the way, what is
Speaker 14: the underlying aspect of this that's being missed by most
Speaker 14: of the media, and that is the union workers are
Speaker 14: deathly afraid of the ev and the trend toward that
Speaker 14: because the biggest company in that category, Tesla, is non union,
Speaker 14: and they're doing just fine. In fact, their market capitalization
Speaker 14: is much better than all these companies that they're they're
Speaker 14: protesting now and so so what in the world are
Speaker 14: these union guys thinking the future is, Oh, we're going
Speaker 14: to hold back the ev revolution in cars, you know,
Speaker 14: so that we can protect ourselves and get a pension
Speaker 14: in the process. Pensions were washed out years ago because
Speaker 14: the people managing them couldn't actually keep track of the
Speaker 14: needs of the pensioners and they were underwater. I mean,
Speaker 14: like this union, it sounds like it's going back to
Speaker 14: the nineteen fifties in their approach to negotiating with companies.
Speaker 14: They want one hundred billion dollars in concessions, and these
Speaker 14: companies don't have a market cap that's that high. I mean, like, honestly,
Speaker 14: I think the level setting of this is going to
Speaker 14: happen this weekend, and it'll be interesting to see with
Speaker 14: this stand up strike strategy where only you know, three
Speaker 14: locations are affected, whether that's enough to empower the UAW
Speaker 14: to get the kinds of concessions they're looking for. But
Speaker 14: I really wonder whether these car companies can afford to
Speaker 14: have these unions.
Speaker 3: I'm compelled by this conversation Jeanie about unionized workers, whether
Speaker 3: it's auto workers or otherwise warming up to the Republican
Speaker 3: Party an opportunity here for Republicans. On the campaign trail,
Speaker 3: I asked Congressman Costa about that a short time ago,
Speaker 3: a Democrat from California, and he said, look at our actions,
Speaker 3: not at our words, But how much will Democrats be
Speaker 3: at risk of losing this important block of voters. I
Speaker 3: know the membership is low, but they count on these endorsements.
Speaker 4: Yeah, the endorsements are important.
Speaker 13: As we look at the latest Gallop poll, you still
Speaker 13: find support strongest among Democrats, less so amongst independents, and
Speaker 13: then certainly least among Republicans. But to your point, it
Speaker 13: is growing. Republicans should be buying for the support of
Speaker 13: these workers. That's the way our system works. But let's
Speaker 13: be realistic here, and I agree with the representative on this.
Speaker 13: It is going to be a question of who delivers
Speaker 13: for these workers. And that's exactly what the Biden campaign
Speaker 13: was talking about yesterday. That's what they're going to keep
Speaker 13: talking about, which is this idea, look at what we
Speaker 13: have done for workers, and let's compare that to what
Speaker 13: the Republicans have put forward. Policy wise. We saw the
Speaker 13: memo from Anita Dunn and she laid out many of
Speaker 13: those statistics there. That's very real and just as one
Speaker 13: example of that. And I'm struck by Rick talking about
Speaker 13: Elon Musk and Tesla because of course, just this morning
Speaker 13: when the strike, when they went on strike targeted strike. Albeit,
Speaker 13: what did Elon Musk do in Twitter? He unverified the UAW.
Speaker 13: So this is somebody who on the one side of
Speaker 13: his mouth talks about out publicly as if he is
Speaker 13: some big populist, and as an owner of Twitter or
Speaker 13: x now he unverifies the union because it goes on
Speaker 13: targeted strike because to Rick's point, he also owns Tesla,
Speaker 13: which is not a unionized car business or company. And
Speaker 13: then when he was criticized for that and it's pointed out,
Speaker 13: he plups that verification right back. And workers are not
Speaker 13: immune to or unclear about this kind of hypocrisy coming out.
Speaker 13: So I think that's something important to keep in mind
Speaker 13: in this conversation as well.
Speaker 3: Wow, here I just thought they failed to pay their bucks, Genie.
Speaker 4: Rick, I've got less than a minute here.
Speaker 3: I can't does the Labor Secretary, does Gene Sperling provide
Speaker 3: any breakthrough here? Can they make a difference this weekend?
Speaker 15: You know.
Speaker 14: Look, I mean it'll be interesting to see what their
Speaker 14: instructions are, right, Uh yeah. I agree with previous speakers
Speaker 14: on this program saying it's it's a good thing that
Speaker 14: the White House has representatives, you know, in and out
Speaker 14: of the room. And I think that Jean Spurling and
Speaker 14: Julie Shue are the perfect to to send. They have
Speaker 14: different appeals and can help. But it's not totally clear
Speaker 14: to me, like what is their their mission. Are they
Speaker 14: going to tell the UAW leaders that they're asks are
Speaker 14: too high and they got to come down to get
Speaker 14: a deal done.
Speaker 2: Are they going to.
Speaker 14: Rustle the the companies to you know, adjust the cola
Speaker 14: so that it's something that's in line. I mean, it's
Speaker 14: not totally clear. And I they are smart enough to
Speaker 14: be agile and and successful, but having the impact of
Speaker 14: having the White House there has got to be positive.
Speaker 14: If they're there, you know, with instructions that don't come home.
Speaker 14: If you don't have a deal.
Speaker 3: By Monday, well we're going to turn next to the
Speaker 3: other potential cloud hanging over this administration and the capital,
Speaker 3: of course, and that's a potential government shutdown. More to
Speaker 3: report on. Even since we spoke yesterday. We'll have that
Speaker 3: next with Fricking Genie.
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Speaker 3: So we've got two weeks to figure this out, how
Speaker 3: to keep the government from shutting down, and we are
Speaker 3: no closer to a solution today than we were yesterday.
Speaker 3: Certainly a lot of concerns about the debate around defense
Speaker 3: spending in the House. Trouble is that debate can't start
Speaker 3: because a small number of Republican hardliners in the Freedom
Speaker 3: Caucus blocked that from happening this week, and there's just
Speaker 3: no path realizing. A lot of this comes up to
Speaker 3: the last minute. But people are starting to get nervous
Speaker 3: two weeks away because this time does feel a bit different.
Speaker 3: As Libby Cantrell told us a couple of weeks back,
Speaker 3: the ingredients to this shutdown are more harrowing than they
Speaker 3: have been in recent history, potentially more poisonous. Congresswoman Katie Porter,
Speaker 3: Democrat from California, taking aim at Speaker McCarthy and a
Speaker 3: hearing on Capitol Hill before leaving town.
Speaker 15: We have sixteen days until the government shuts down. Speaker McCarthy,
Speaker 15: who is slow walking government funding bills one by one,
Speaker 15: has only passed one of twelve. I'm a former professor,
Speaker 15: so I know what one of twelve means. The Speaker's
Speaker 15: getting an F.
Speaker 4: Speakers getting an F.
Speaker 3: She says, let's bring the panel back in Jennie Shanzano
Speaker 3: and Rick Davis Bloomberg Politics contributors. Is that fair, Rick,
Speaker 3: how would you grade Speaker McCarthy.
Speaker 14: Yeah, he's a man on the run. I mean, he
Speaker 14: had some of the most tumultuous meetings this week with
Speaker 14: his own con caucus. A lot of four letter words
Speaker 14: being thrown back and forth at each other, and no
Speaker 14: really apparent progress other than the fact that now he's
Speaker 14: talking about, you know, like maybe we ought to be
Speaker 14: working on a minibus and there's a way to package
Speaker 14: together some budget items, and so you can tell he's
Speaker 14: scrambling to find something that he can get people to
Speaker 14: rally around, rather than how he started the week earlier.
Speaker 14: Which is telling everybody, if you don't want to get
Speaker 14: a spending bill passed, throw me out, you know, get
Speaker 14: rid of me as speaker, because I'm going to get
Speaker 14: one done.
Speaker 3: Apparently, you know, there are a number of Republicans in
Speaker 3: the House who are pretty upset about the way this
Speaker 3: is going when it comes to defense spending. Genie Political
Speaker 3: reporting this morning that Hal Rogers and Dave the Republican
Speaker 3: from Ohio, are pushing McCarthy to bring it to the
Speaker 3: floor instead of getting bogged down in the deal making
Speaker 3: at the committee level dealing with the Freedom Caucus. Is
Speaker 3: there something to this Should Speaker McCarthy start calling bluffs.
Speaker 13: I think he's going to have to. I mean, I
Speaker 13: don't see another way out. You know, at this point,
Speaker 13: if we think about what we are all sort of
Speaker 13: hoping for a best case scenario in all of this
Speaker 13: is a c r It's a heck of a way
Speaker 13: to budget. You'd never do it in your home, and
Speaker 13: yet this is where we are in the US Congress.
Speaker 13: He is completely beholden to this far right of his caucus.
Speaker 13: He made this deal, This was in the works in January.
Speaker 13: We don't know what's in the deal except that he
Speaker 13: has very little room to maneuver, so I think he's
Speaker 13: got to bring this to the floor. I'm not sure
Speaker 13: if he'll be successful at that, but this is where
Speaker 13: we are today, and I think, you know we what
Speaker 13: Kevin McCarthy thought he was going to do is sort
Speaker 13: of throw the far right of the Freedom Caucus of
Speaker 13: bone by opening this impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden. And
Speaker 13: they did call his bluff by saying that, okay, we'll
Speaker 13: take that, and now we're still going to hold your
Speaker 13: feet to the fire. You can't operate a caucus this way.
Speaker 13: Kevin McCarthy is in a similar boat to his predecessors
Speaker 13: Paul Ryan and John Bahner, and he is going to
Speaker 13: either have to figure out a way to get them
Speaker 13: to move forward with the basics of governing, which is
Speaker 13: to pass a budget and keep the government open, or
Speaker 13: he is going to have to step out of the way.
Speaker 13: The problem for the entire caucus is there's nobody there
Speaker 13: to pick up the slack because who would want to
Speaker 13: be speaker.
Speaker 3: At this point Rick, As we discussed earlier with Congressman Costa,
Speaker 3: funding for Ukraine is a big sticking point here. When
Speaker 3: you have any conversation about defense spending. Certainly the multi
Speaker 3: billion dollar supplemental request that President Biden has made of
Speaker 3: this congo. We've just learned and it's a headline on
Speaker 3: the terminal right now that Vladimir Zelenski will be at
Speaker 3: the White House on Thursday. We knew there were reports
Speaker 3: he was going to be here next week. We can
Speaker 3: actually put a day on it this following, of course
Speaker 3: the United Nations General Assembly meeting. Well, having the President
Speaker 3: of Ukraine back in town and I'm sure he's going
Speaker 3: to visit Capitol Hill as well, have any impact on
Speaker 3: the debate that we're hearing now.
Speaker 14: Absolutely. I mean, he is the best advocate that Ukraine
Speaker 14: has ever had. His speeches to Congress and congresses all
Speaker 14: over the world in Allied Group nations has been part
Speaker 14: and parcel with the selling of their defense of their
Speaker 14: homeland against Russian aggression. And you can't count him out.
Speaker 14: He's an impressive figure who can articulate the importance of
Speaker 14: the battle that he's fighting for the rest of the world.
Speaker 14: And so he'll start the week in New York at
Speaker 14: the General Assembly and make a big splash there. And
Speaker 14: I think that's the kind of momentum that this cause
Speaker 14: constantly has to be thinking about. And it's very conscious
Speaker 14: on the part of Zelenski's regime to keep the world
Speaker 14: focused on Ukraine, and so by his physical presence, by
Speaker 14: just going to Washington and being with Biden and seeing
Speaker 14: members of Congress, reminds them every single day that these
Speaker 14: are real people who are shedding blood and treasure, you know,
Speaker 14: to fight the Russians on all of our behalf. So
Speaker 14: I think it's a savvy move. I'm not surprised They've
Speaker 14: been smart about how to sell this war, and I
Speaker 14: think it will result in a lot of Republicans who
Speaker 14: have been sort of stucking up to putin in the
Speaker 14: House of Representatives to shut up for a couple of weeks,
Speaker 14: and that may be the opening they need.
Speaker 3: As only Rick Davis could say, Jeanie, he addressed a
Speaker 3: joint session of Congress, it was December.
Speaker 4: I actually had to look back.
Speaker 3: It wasn't this year, the very end of last right
Speaker 3: before Christmas that was arguably the high water mark for
Speaker 3: support here in Washington. Remembering the Ukrainian flags lining Pennsylvania
Speaker 3: Avenue alongside the Stars and stripes. Could this visit bring
Speaker 3: us back to that level of support.
Speaker 13: You know, I think it can. And that is the
Speaker 13: real danger here because we've all seen the polls as support,
Speaker 13: particularly on the Republican side, has started to diminish. And
Speaker 13: it is not that Americans, Republicans or Democrats don't support
Speaker 13: Ukraine's cause, but that they are concerned about the amount
Speaker 13: of spending. So that's really what's got to be addressed here.
Speaker 13: And you know, the reality is Republicans in the House today,
Speaker 13: this is where they find themselves with a caucus that
Speaker 13: is going to be, to Rick's point, cheerleading for Putin,
Speaker 13: not supporting funding for Ukraine, trying to impeach the president
Speaker 13: on flimsy on flimsy evidence, and of course shutting down
Speaker 13: the government. It's no place for the party to be
Speaker 13: and the President is going to make the most of that.
Speaker 13: So that's the danger for those Democrats I am in
Speaker 13: New York who won Republicans rather who won in Biden districts.
Speaker 13: They are living in fear that their caucus has gone
Speaker 13: amok and that it is so magnetized at this point
Speaker 13: that they can't win in these districts anymore.
Speaker 3: Jenny Shanzino and Rick Davis, I'm Joe Matthew in Washington.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast.
Speaker 1: Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern.
Speaker 9: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.
Speaker 2: The Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: I always get a kick out of politicians who refer
Speaker 3: to themselves as the third person, or anyone for that matter.
Speaker 4: You know, Bob Dole thinks Bob Dole is gonna win.
Speaker 4: Donald Trump does it too.
Speaker 3: He's always talking about that, you know Trump Trump said this,
Speaker 3: Trump did that, the Trump brand. But it goes even
Speaker 3: further when you're referring to your alter e go as
Speaker 3: a different person.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: Enter Dark Brandon, which we've talked about quite a bit.
Speaker 3: President Biden out today with a new video to try
Speaker 3: to sell a dark brand in a color changing Dark
Speaker 3: Brandon mug. Picture the President. Here's the mug. He's pouring
Speaker 3: hot water into it as if he's making tea.
Speaker 2: I maybe you should buy this mug.
Speaker 6: I'll ask you nicely what he wanted.
Speaker 4: That's so weird.
Speaker 3: So you see the picture of Biden with the glasses
Speaker 3: and the eyes turn red when you pour hot liquid
Speaker 3: into the mug. I'll ask you nicely, but he won't.
Speaker 3: Genie Shanzano help me out here. Is this normal for someone,
Speaker 3: or namely a president, to be referring to their alter ego?
Speaker 4: Like this? Is this working again for Joe Biden?
Speaker 13: I think it's working. Joe, I have the most boring
Speaker 13: coffee I wanted Dirk Brandon one.
Speaker 4: I love it.
Speaker 13: Kudos to the team for putting this together. And Joe,
Speaker 13: I want to know who your alter ego is because
Speaker 13: we're going to start.
Speaker 3: Thanks you, Okay, Laurio, we'll talk about that off the air. Rick,
Speaker 3: was you buy one just for a souvenir? It could
Speaker 3: be a collector's item.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 14: I love the way the eyes turn red. I mean
Speaker 14: it's not just you know, like a color changing, it's
Speaker 14: color changing evil red. So I can't remember in Canada
Speaker 14: having a alter ego. So this is all new to me.
Speaker 4: I kind of I'm digging it. And you were on
Speaker 4: the Dole campaign, you knowd about and that's Bob Doll.
Speaker 14: But he didn't actually have it ego.
Speaker 3: It's just him exactly all right, Joe Matthews going to
Speaker 3: say goodbye to the panel now, Rick Davis and Genie
Speaker 3: Shanza and I love you guys. Happy Friday. Thanks for
Speaker 3: another great week of analysis.
Speaker 4: You will only hear them here on Bloomberg. Thanks for
Speaker 4: listening to the Sound On podcast.
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