1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:08,400 Speaker 1: Live weekdays at one Eastern, Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:10,200 Speaker 1: app and the Bloomberg Business app. 4 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:12,240 Speaker 2: Or listening on demand wherever you get your. 5 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 3: Podcast going now by Kaylee Lines, It's great to see you, Kaylee. 6 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 3: Around this time yesterday we thought there would be a strike. Yeah, 7 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 3: it's different when you actually hear it. And this is historic. 8 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:25,799 Speaker 4: It's the first time all three of the Big Three. 9 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, unprecedented. Granted, this isn't all one hundred and fifty 10 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:32,479 Speaker 5: thousand workers in the United autoworkers you need walking out 11 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 5: at once. They are being very specific about where they 12 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 5: are striking on three specific facilities that produce high profit vehicles, 13 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 5: only about thirteen thousand workers at this moment. The concern, though, 14 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 5: is the longer this drags on, the more it's going 15 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 5: to ramp up. 16 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 3: Rick Davis was just saying they're going to level this 17 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:51,480 Speaker 3: up over the weekend and it's going to start looking 18 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:53,279 Speaker 3: real ugly when we walk into next week. We'll see 19 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 3: if that actually happens. The President, though, did talk about this. 20 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 3: We were asking everybody yesterday it does a strike prompt 21 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 3: a presidential a draft US it does. He didn't have 22 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 3: a lot to say, but a few moments from the 23 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 3: White House, they are sending help is the message hereas it's. 24 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:14,039 Speaker 6: My hope that the parties can return the negotiation table 25 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 6: to forge a win win agreement to continue our active engagement. 26 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 6: I'm deploying dispatching two members of my team to Detroit, 27 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,199 Speaker 6: Acting Labor Secretary of Julie Schue and White House Senior 28 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 6: Advisor Gene Sperling. Both of them been involved up in 29 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,680 Speaker 6: that to offer their full support for the parties and 30 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 6: reaching a contract. 31 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 3: We'll see if they can make a difference where Jeene 32 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 3: Spriling has already been in touch with them and that 33 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:38,319 Speaker 3: has not made a difference. 34 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 5: Right, The UAW hasn't been super eager to engage with 35 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:43,759 Speaker 5: the White House on this. Maybe now that they're actually striking, 36 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 5: things will change. But what else the President said from 37 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 5: the Roosevelt Room today I thought was very interesting. He 38 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 5: talked about record corporate profits and how that should mean 39 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 5: a record contract for the UAW. If there was any 40 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 5: real question that the President was going to come down 41 00:01:57,560 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 5: on the side of the union, he definitely tried to 42 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 5: squad that this afternoon. 43 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 3: Well, Mary Barra says, you know, the longer you're gone here, 44 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 3: fewer vehicles are made, could mean fewer jobs. Yeah, and 45 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 3: there's a real push and pull here. One of the 46 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,399 Speaker 3: first emails I woke up to this morning was from 47 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,920 Speaker 3: you with the statement from the Chamber, and it's a 48 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 3: ripper quote. The UA double ed strike and indeed summer 49 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 3: of strikes is the natural result of the Biden administration's 50 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:30,640 Speaker 3: whole of government approach to promoting unionization at all costs. 51 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 4: It goes on from there. 52 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:36,120 Speaker 3: Pretty tough language for a president who is trying to 53 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 3: be the most union friendly in American history. 54 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 5: Absolutely, should we talk to the chamber about Absolutely. 55 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 3: Look who's at the table, Neil Bradley, Executive vice President, 56 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 3: Chief Policy Officer, Head of Strategic Advocacy. Three business cards 57 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 3: and one at the US Chamber. Neil, it's been a 58 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:50,960 Speaker 3: while and it's good to see you. Thank you for 59 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 3: coming in. 60 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:51,919 Speaker 4: Great to see. 61 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 3: We have a lot about this from the uaw's perspective. 62 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:58,840 Speaker 3: We heard earlier from Mary Barra, but I'd like to 63 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 3: hear your thoughts on this hot labor summer and what 64 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 3: has brought us to this moment. Union membership is near 65 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:10,519 Speaker 3: a record low, but we're looking at a potentially economic 66 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 3: disrupting event. 67 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 4: Here we are. 68 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:15,639 Speaker 7: And let me start where you did. Let's talk about 69 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 7: union membership. In the private sector. Ninety four percent of 70 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 7: the workforce is non unionized. Yet this six percent and 71 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 7: even a subset of that with the strikes at the UAW, 72 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 7: the strikes that we're seeing in Hollywood right now, and 73 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 7: the over two hundred strikes that we've already seen this year, 74 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 7: are really causing havoc not just for the overall community, 75 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 7: but for lots of businesses that end up being collateral 76 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 7: damage in these fights. And so at the Chamber, one 77 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 7: of the things that we're most concerned about are those 78 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 7: small restaurants, the dry cleaners, the service stores who their 79 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 7: employee bay their customer base. Are the people on strike 80 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,119 Speaker 7: or the businesses that are shut down because of these strikes. 81 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 7: What concerns us the most is that no one's thinking 82 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 7: about what happens to them. 83 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 5: Well, I understand that point, Neil, But the counterpoint would be, 84 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 5: when you're thinking about the economic ramifications of a strike, 85 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 5: is the economic reasons we are at this point in 86 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:15,119 Speaker 5: the first place, that these workers have been dealing with 87 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 5: inflation that no one saw coming wages haven't necessarily kept pace, 88 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 5: and in order for them to keep consuming, to keep 89 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 5: visiting those shops, keep paying for what they need, they 90 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 5: need more money. What do you say to that argument? 91 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 7: Absolutely, and that's why in this particular instance, the auto 92 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 7: companies came forward with pay raises, in some cases twenty 93 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 7: percent plus. Understand that twenty percent pay increase is a 94 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 7: pretty good pay increase, but the unions want forty percent, 95 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 7: and the unions want five days of pay for four 96 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 7: days of work. Hey, hey, listen, that sounds great, except 97 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 7: it's really hard to operate a business and keep offering 98 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 7: people jobs when you're demanding these type of concessions that 99 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 7: are really just going to put those businesses into bankruptcy. 100 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 7: And so, you know, there are people throwing around a 101 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 7: lot of numbers here, but when you look at just 102 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 7: the scale of what they're asking for, I think you 103 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:13,160 Speaker 7: kind of get a sense of why they were demands 104 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 7: that these companies couldn't meet and why now today we're 105 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 7: facing the strike. 106 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 3: Of course, Sean Fain would tell you that's because it 107 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 3: has been so long since we've been able to renegotiate. 108 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 3: When you wait a decade and the world changes around you, 109 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 3: and they're seeing technology change around them. He says, we're 110 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:32,279 Speaker 3: tired of living off the scraps. Neil, can you relate 111 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 3: with that? 112 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 2: Well? 113 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 4: Can you sympathize with that? 114 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 7: Absolutely? And listen, unions play an important role. Even though 115 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 7: they're a small part of the workforce, they and play 116 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 7: an important role. And so we want healthy union management negotiations. 117 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 4: We want to get deals. 118 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 7: But I think what we look at and what really 119 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 7: concerns us, is that we've kind of reached a point 120 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 7: in which both public policy and a lot of the 121 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 7: narrator around unionization is really trying to tip the scales. 122 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 7: And in tipping the scale to distort that balance, you're 123 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 7: going to create the type of disruptions, the type of unfeasional, feasible, 124 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 7: over the top demands that we're seeing right now play 125 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 7: out in this UAW strike. 126 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 5: Well, to continue the conversation on disruptions, economic disruptions that 127 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 5: may have resulted in this moment. This is something that 128 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 5: Muhammad al Arian, he was an economist and a Bloomberg 129 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,160 Speaker 5: opinion columnist as well, was talking about earlier on Bloomberg. 130 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 5: Let's just listen for a moment to what he had 131 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 5: to say about how we got here. 132 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:34,919 Speaker 8: When you have a combination of the labor market on 133 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 8: the one hand and workers being hit by an unanticipated 134 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 8: part of inflation, you normally get catch up wage negotiations. 135 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 2: If you owe U a w worker. 136 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 8: If not now, when this is your key point of 137 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:52,119 Speaker 8: boggaining power, your boggaining power is going to erode over time. 138 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,039 Speaker 8: So if you're going to strike, now is the time 139 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 8: to strike. 140 00:06:57,040 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 5: So he's saying now the time is the time to 141 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 5: strike for the UAW. But I wonder how much it 142 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 5: is the concern of the Chamber of US Businesses that 143 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 5: this is contagious almost, that it's not just the UAW 144 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 5: that is dealing with this issue of wages wanting to 145 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 5: be higher because of inflation. That this is going to 146 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 5: have ripple effects across the wider economy of people demanding more. 147 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 5: And that's when we talk about a wage price spiral. 148 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 5: Is that a real risk or is this idiosyncratic to 149 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 5: the auto sector. 150 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 4: It's not idiosyncratic. 151 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 7: It is a real risk. And by the way, wages 152 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 7: are going up for unionized and non unionized workers, and 153 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 7: they need to go up right for the very reasons 154 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 7: that Mohamma just talked about equilibrium in the labor force inflation. 155 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 7: This is not a situation in which people are objecting 156 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 7: to increases in wages. In some cases, what are really 157 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 7: high increases in wages given our experience over the last 158 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 7: twenty years, But there are natural limits to this, And 159 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 7: I think the thing that concerns us is that in 160 00:07:55,920 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 7: many cases, labor today feels empowered by support or government 161 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 7: policies that say no demand, no matter how high, is 162 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 7: out of bounds. And so when you look at our 163 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 7: response to this strike, it's not just the particulars of 164 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 7: the UAW and the negotiations with the Detroit three. It 165 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 7: really is about this broader policy push to put the 166 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 7: thumb on the scale in favor of labor and unionizations 167 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 7: in a way that leads to the wage price price 168 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 7: spiral that you just talked about that will be devastating 169 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 7: economically for all of us. And so there are contagions 170 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 7: that can occur here. Even though we're talking about one 171 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 7: strike in one industry. 172 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 3: The conversation about economic impacts grows a lot worse when 173 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 3: you out of government shutdown. The combination of an auto 174 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 3: strike that we have now, especially if it goes into 175 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:52,199 Speaker 3: a longer duration, and a shutdown, according to Bloomberg Economics, 176 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 3: is the difference between a recession and not a recession. 177 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 3: What's the Chambers message to some Hoou's Republicans who are 178 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:02,119 Speaker 3: in fact urgent a shutdown right now for leverage. 179 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 7: Well, our message to them is the same as been 180 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 7: to parties Republicans and Democrats in the three previous times 181 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:13,079 Speaker 7: over the last decade that we've had shutdowns instigated by 182 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 7: both parties, is that a shutdown is a choice, and 183 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 7: it's a really dumb choice to make. So this doesn't 184 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:23,599 Speaker 7: have to happen. This is a question of elected officials 185 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:27,839 Speaker 7: deciding that they would rather shut down the government as 186 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:32,479 Speaker 7: a means of achieving leverage to advance their policy proposals. 187 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 7: But the history is unanimous. Anytime someone does that, they 188 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 7: are unsuccessful in achieving their policy objectives. And in the meantime, 189 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:46,440 Speaker 7: the shutdown has real world implications. It's not just government 190 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,360 Speaker 7: employees who are furloughed and what that means. Think about 191 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 7: all the businesses in America who need permits, who need 192 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:57,559 Speaker 7: government inspections, who need export licenses to be able to operate. 193 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 7: Guess what when the government's shut down, you can't do 194 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 7: any of those things. So it's really amazing that we 195 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:06,080 Speaker 7: could be in a position in just a few short 196 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 7: weeks where we are elected representatives. Yeah, would literally choose 197 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 7: to make the government non functioning, shut it down, and 198 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 7: you really can't have a functioning that you can't allow government. 199 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 4: To keep this from happening. 200 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 5: There is, Yeah, but fewer legislative days, and judging by 201 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 5: how this past week went, seems like progress is going 202 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 5: to be quite slow on this. 203 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:32,079 Speaker 4: It was not a good week in that direction. Yeah. 204 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 5: What we've heard, though, consistently from economists and others on 205 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 5: this program here on Bloomberg Television is that a shutdown 206 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:39,839 Speaker 5: is nothing like a potential default, which was the risk 207 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 5: we were dealing with months ago in the debt's dealing 208 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 5: debate that was also about spending. That no one wants 209 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 5: to stick to that deal anymore. So is that just 210 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 5: the wrong way to be thinking about this? 211 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 7: Well, they are very different, and a default on the debt, 212 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 7: which has never happened before. We've had shutdowns, too many 213 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 7: of them that we've had them. A default on the 214 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 7: debt would be unprecedented, and that cosmic, like you would just. 215 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 5: Right by comparison I sure understand how a lawmaker says, well, 216 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 5: at least this wouldn't be that right, right. 217 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 7: But you know, like I could amputate my arm, or 218 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 7: I could amputate a finger. 219 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 4: A finger is less than they are. 220 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 7: But we don't need to do this, right, this is 221 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 7: we don't have to go through this. And you know, yes, 222 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 7: I get the economic arguments that mandatory spending continues, and 223 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:28,199 Speaker 7: when we reopen the government coffers get backfilled. What can't 224 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 7: get backfilled is time. You can't reclaim time. And what 225 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 7: gets lost for the American business community is the time 226 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 7: and the economic activity where you needed the government to 227 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 7: be a partner and when you called them up, no 228 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 7: one answered the phone to give you that permit to 229 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 7: help you get that project licensed because somebody decided to 230 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 7: shut it down. You can never make that up, and 231 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 7: that has real implications for a lot of industries in 232 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:55,760 Speaker 7: America who have to have the government as a partner. 233 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 3: When the Chamber calls the Speaker's office, is there an answer. 234 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 3: You have back channels with the Speaker right now to 235 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 3: deliver that message. 236 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 7: We have relationships on both sides of the isle, leadership 237 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 7: in rank and fould, even with the White House, and 238 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 7: so that doesn't mean that he's from the business community, 239 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 7: though they are all hes from the business community. And listen, 240 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:16,560 Speaker 7: the Speaker has been great on this. He's been very 241 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 7: clear he doesn't want to shut down. You know, the 242 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,199 Speaker 7: remarks that leaked out of the conference meeting this week, 243 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 7: he was describing it in terms more colorful than we 244 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 7: are about you can go there if you want. The 245 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 7: negative consequence a lot of beliefs. But but you know, 246 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 7: he's right on and listen, that's because he's been there. 247 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 7: You know, he had a front row seat at the 248 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 7: twenty thirteen shut down, the last one in twenty eighteen. 249 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 7: He understands that no one wins in a shutdown, and 250 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 7: in particular, it's really hard for the leveraging party to win. 251 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 7: And so I don't think this is of the speakers doing. 252 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 7: I think he understands what's at stake, and he's really 253 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:58,560 Speaker 7: trying to find a solution and a way forward. 254 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 5: So as we talk about the idea that a shutdown 255 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 5: combined with a UAW strike, perhaps you know, toss in 256 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:07,520 Speaker 5: their student loan payments resuming as well in the month 257 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:10,200 Speaker 5: of October, creating a bit more of a difficult economic 258 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:12,559 Speaker 5: cocktail than we are currently dealing with in this moment 259 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:14,959 Speaker 5: when things still look pretty strong, when all of a 260 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 5: sudden done, are US businesses bracing for a recession still? 261 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 5: Or is there now faith in that soft landing narrative 262 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:23,440 Speaker 5: and despite all those things a thought that will be okay? 263 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:28,439 Speaker 7: You know, I think businesses looking at their own operations 264 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 7: and they're feeling pretty good. I mean, American consumers are strong. 265 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 7: Demand is strong, and so if you look at forecasts 266 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 7: from either our surveys of small businesses, mid sized businesses, 267 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 7: you know, even large companies, the outlook for their individual 268 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:46,440 Speaker 7: businesses are pretty good. The question is is can you 269 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:50,960 Speaker 7: add enough of these external factors, particularly these self inflicted wounds, 270 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 7: where that begins to change. And I don't think that's 271 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 7: been internalized for a lot of businesses yet. But listen, 272 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 7: pile a couple of these things on a prolonged, spanded 273 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 7: UAW strike, a government shut down, Dover's apter students which 274 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:06,680 Speaker 7: has been factored in, and we could be in for 275 00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 7: a world. 276 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 3: Of hurt throwing one hundred dollars barrel oil. And you've 277 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 3: got quite a confluence there, Neil. I'm glad you could 278 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:14,720 Speaker 3: come talk to US today. Thank you for weighing in 279 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:18,559 Speaker 3: on an incredibly important time here, the strike, the shutdown, Kaylie, 280 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 3: we can keep going. Indeed, Neil Bradley, Executive VP, Chief 281 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 3: Policy Officer at the US Chamber of Commerce, let's stay 282 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 3: in touch with Kaylee Lines. 283 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. 284 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 285 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern. 286 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 9: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com. 287 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 2: And the Bloomberg Business App. 288 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 289 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 290 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 3: Congressman Jim Costa, the Democrat from California twenty first District, 291 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 3: think Fresno is joining us now on a Friday. Congressman, 292 00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 3: It's good to see you, and I appreciate your time. 293 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 3: Mary Borro to us earlier, the CEO at GM and 294 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 3: said this strike should never have happened. 295 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 4: Do you agree? 296 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 10: Well? I, given our economic recovery, certainly the last thing 297 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:15,000 Speaker 10: we need is to have a strike with our major 298 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 10: automotive companies in this country. But clearly we hope that 299 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 10: the President s effarts with others will sooner than later 300 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 10: bring this strike to a successful resolution for all parties. 301 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 3: What's your concern here about a potential economic impact if any. 302 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 3: You seem hopeful that this will be short lived, but 303 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 3: some have suggested this could be weeks, not days, including 304 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 3: the president's former labor advisor. If we start stretching into October, 305 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 3: for instance, and I'm going to ask you next about 306 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 3: a possible shutdown, there could be corrosive effects here that 307 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 3: impact the economy nationally. 308 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 10: Right, well, that's certainly a possibility, and we hope not. 309 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 10: And that's why I resolve in this strike among the 310 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 10: parties sooner than later is so important. And I think 311 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 10: that the president's comments this morning and is sending his 312 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 10: labor secretary along with Jeans Spurling to sit down with 313 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 10: the parties to determine how we can bring this to 314 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 10: a successful resolution. I mean, we've had we've had strikes before, 315 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 10: certainly in this country, and it's certainly organized labor's right 316 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 10: to do that to represent working men and women in 317 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 10: this country who do so much to bring about this 318 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 10: economic recovery that we are enjoying at this point in time. 319 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 10: But we need to continue, and clearly a prolonged strike 320 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 10: is not in the interest of that economic recovery. 321 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 3: I'm sure you've heard it's being called the hot labor summer. 322 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 2: Right. 323 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 3: We've had the doc workers, we've had ups, we've had 324 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 3: Yellow they haven't all turned out the same way, and 325 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 3: now we have an historic auto workers strike. Do you 326 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 3: worry about the impression here, as Joe Biden claims to 327 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 3: be the most union friendly administration in American history, the 328 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:08,400 Speaker 3: impression that Democrats are not always aligned with workers here 329 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:10,639 Speaker 3: that in fact, in many cases the rank and file 330 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 3: pull a little leaning toward Republicans more, while the leadership 331 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:19,880 Speaker 3: is obviously striking accord with Democrats and endorsing Democratic candidates 332 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 3: for president and Congress. Do you worry about a shift though, 333 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 3: in organized labor leaning towards the Republican Party. 334 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 10: Well, I think that it's not what you say, but 335 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 10: what you do. And I think the President Biden's actions 336 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 10: as working supporting working men and women, which has always 337 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 10: been a strong foundation of his political efforts over the years, 338 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 10: going back to the United States Senate, I think when 339 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 10: it's all said and done, you look at the Inflation 340 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 10: Reduction Act, you look at the Bipartis and Infrastructure Package. 341 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:59,359 Speaker 10: All of those have provided funding that create jobs, good 342 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 10: paying jobs here in America. And certainly, the strike that 343 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,840 Speaker 10: was resolved to the longshoremen here on the West Coast 344 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 10: that was a result of the five year contract coming 345 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 10: due and the problems that we've had with supply chain 346 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 10: issues was a successful resolution to the men and women 347 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,439 Speaker 10: here on the West Coast that are so critical to 348 00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:26,639 Speaker 10: our America's exports. And I hope the same resolution is 349 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 10: going to come about with this auto strike that we're 350 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 10: witnessing at this time. And I know that the President 351 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 10: is folks Laser liked to ensure that we bring the 352 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 10: parties together and we ensure that working men and women 353 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,400 Speaker 10: and these jobs that are so critical here in America 354 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:44,360 Speaker 10: stay here in America. 355 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 3: Spending time with Congressman Jim Costa, the Democrat from California, 356 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 3: joining us here on Bloomberg Sound on our analysts at 357 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:58,199 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Economics. Congressmen, we're estimating that a protracted auto strike 358 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,880 Speaker 3: here will say weeks not days again, and coupled with 359 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 3: a government shutdown would mean the difference between a recession 360 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 3: and not a recession. And I wonder your thoughts having 361 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:10,679 Speaker 3: just been back in Washington for a week here and 362 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,359 Speaker 3: some of the drama that we've heard about in the House, 363 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 3: a lot of folks are expecting a shutdown, and some 364 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:19,560 Speaker 3: of that might hinge on funding for Ukraine. I know 365 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 3: I'm coming at you with a lot here. You just 366 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 3: came back from a Kiev and I'm sure you have 367 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 3: very strong feelings about this supplementary budget request that the 368 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 3: President is asking right now of the US House. Is 369 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,639 Speaker 3: Ukraine potentially going to be the reason why the government 370 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:36,160 Speaker 3: shuts down? 371 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 10: No, I don't believe so. I think that there are 372 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 10: a group of congressional extremists, some call them terrorists, who 373 00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:54,639 Speaker 10: simply have required the speaker to meet a list of 374 00:19:54,680 --> 00:20:00,119 Speaker 10: demands for their votes to avoid a government shutdown. But 375 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 10: I was talking with a number of my Republican colleagues 376 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 10: over the last few days on the floor, and they're 377 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 10: frustrated because they really believe, and I believe as well, 378 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,920 Speaker 10: that these list of demands that are being represented by 379 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:18,920 Speaker 10: this MAGA extreme group, even if they were to succeed, 380 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 10: they wouldn't vote for the budget anyway. They want to 381 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 10: shut down government. They want to eliminate the FBI, They're 382 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 10: extremists period, and so it's a very difficult situation with 383 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,920 Speaker 10: a small margin. And I have never voted to shut 384 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,680 Speaker 10: down government in the nineteen years that I've been in Congress. 385 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 10: It's irresponsible, regardless of which party it's in power and 386 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,919 Speaker 10: who occupies the White House, just as not lifting the 387 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 10: death ceiling is irresponsible. The Speaker was able to successfully 388 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,439 Speaker 10: negotiate that back in the springtime with the President with 389 00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 10: an agreement on two year caps on spending and work requirements, 390 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 10: and we need to keep that agreement, and that's part 391 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 10: of the basis for this year's ultimate budget resolution, I believe. 392 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 10: But we're not in a place where we can reach 393 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:12,159 Speaker 10: a budget resolution between the House and the Senate with 394 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 10: the October one deadline looming. Therefore, a continuing resolution is 395 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 10: absolutely critical, and whether or not we're successful next week 396 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,359 Speaker 10: in the first effort remains to be seen. There is 397 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,960 Speaker 10: I think for many of us doubts that they're going 398 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:31,200 Speaker 10: to be able to put together what would I suspect 399 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 10: be just a partisan vote with maybe four votes to 400 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 10: spare to pass it through the House. And if that's 401 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 10: not successful, we could well have a government shutdown. But 402 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:49,640 Speaker 10: I think, as you discussed the supplemental appropriation for Ukraine 403 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,800 Speaker 10: is is separate, but there are those that are trying 404 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:58,080 Speaker 10: to link it with the concurrent resolution, and I think. 405 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 3: Across the board, I know the Pentagon has been a 406 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:02,760 Speaker 3: sticking point here. 407 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:03,720 Speaker 4: Congressman. 408 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,159 Speaker 3: I don't mean to interrupt you, but he used some 409 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:09,399 Speaker 3: pretty spicy language there referring to some of these members 410 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 3: as terrorists. Kevin McCarthy is your colleague representing a different 411 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 3: districts in California. Is he capable of controlling would you 412 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 3: describe as terrorists in his party? 413 00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 10: Well, Speaker McCarthy is not only he's my neighbor, and 414 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 10: I've known Kevin for thirty years. This is a tough 415 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 10: challenge that he's facing you, and he was able to 416 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 10: successfully deal with the debt ceiling earlier this year, and 417 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:42,880 Speaker 10: I wish him every possible success in passing a concurrent 418 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 10: resolution so that in October November we can ultimately resolve 419 00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:50,639 Speaker 10: the differences on a bipartisan basis, a bipartisan basis between 420 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 10: the House and the Senate before the end of the year. 421 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 10: But we have to pass this concurrent resolution, and we 422 00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 10: have to do everything possible to avoid a government down 423 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,360 Speaker 10: for all the reasons that I indicated, but he's got 424 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,120 Speaker 10: a tough challenge he's facing with some of the locular 425 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 10: extreme elements in his Cocker conference. 426 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,480 Speaker 3: Well, Congressman, I want to welcome you back to Bloomberg again. 427 00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:14,639 Speaker 4: Let's stay in touch on this. 428 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 3: We'd love to have you come in studio and talk 429 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 3: more about your visit to Ukraine. Thanks for being with us, 430 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:21,280 Speaker 3: Congressman Jim Costa of California. 431 00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the 432 00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one 433 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,199 Speaker 1: Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the 434 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App, or listening on demand wherever you get 435 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:36,160 Speaker 1: your podcasts. 436 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 3: Well, the first time it's ever happens, the uaw's striking 437 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 3: all three of the Big three at once. Sean Fain 438 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,360 Speaker 3: made the announcement late last night. 439 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:50,360 Speaker 11: We're calling on GM Winsville Assembly Local twenty two fifty 440 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 11: in Region four to stand up and strike. We're calling 441 00:23:55,880 --> 00:24:01,760 Speaker 11: on Stilantis Toledo Assembly Complex Well in Region two B 442 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:06,639 Speaker 11: to stand up and strike. And we're calling on Ford, 443 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 11: Michigan Assembly Plant Final Assembly and Paint Only Local nine 444 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 11: hundred in Region one A to stand up and strike. 445 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,959 Speaker 3: The word from the CEO at GM heard earlier on 446 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 3: Bloomberg in a conversation with our own David West and 447 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,960 Speaker 3: Mary Bara, this is clearly not good news. 448 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,000 Speaker 12: I'm extremely disappointed and frustrated that we're even on a strike. 449 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 12: We didn't need to get here. General Motors has an 450 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:36,440 Speaker 12: exceptionally strong offer on the table. It's historic. It's the 451 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 12: largest increase from a wage's perspective in our one hundred 452 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,960 Speaker 12: and fifteen year history, along with world class healthcare benefits 453 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:48,280 Speaker 12: and many other provisions job security, etc. And a cola adjustment. 454 00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,800 Speaker 3: But of course, as we discussed earlier with Keith Naughton, 455 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,520 Speaker 3: our auto reporter at Bloomberg, they're a mile apart on 456 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 3: a lot of issues, including pensions in retirement. Let's assemble 457 00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 3: our panel for their take. Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributor, 458 00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 3: along with Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributor. Happy Friday to 459 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 3: both of you. This is not really a surprise. Everyone 460 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,760 Speaker 3: knew that it was coming. It feels a little different 461 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:14,480 Speaker 3: when it actually happens, though, Genie, I wonder your take 462 00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,720 Speaker 3: on Joe Biden's response here he's sending the acting Labor 463 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 3: Secretary to Detroit along with Gene Sperling, in the hopes 464 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:25,240 Speaker 3: of finding some kind of a breakthrough. I guess, but 465 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 3: I'll point you to what else. Mary Bara said today. 466 00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:30,960 Speaker 3: This is her conversation with Bloomberg. She said, frankly, when 467 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,080 Speaker 3: you put it up, when you have a strike and 468 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:37,200 Speaker 3: we're not making vehicles, you start to put jobs at risk. 469 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 3: It's an historic transformation. Referring to the EVS. How long 470 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 3: can this go on before union workers start regretting this strike? 471 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,200 Speaker 3: Before jobs are lost? 472 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:56,879 Speaker 13: Genie, Yeah, I mean the risks for Biden are very real. Obviously, 473 00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,920 Speaker 13: the risks for the workers on the ground are very real. 474 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 13: I think that we are looking forward, unfortunately to probably 475 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:07,600 Speaker 13: what might be a longer strike than anybody would hope. 476 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 13: And I think the President is trying to do what 477 00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 13: he can. I mean, this is one of the situations 478 00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 13: where he doesn't have any direct role. There's nothing he 479 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:21,400 Speaker 13: can do to force a negotiated settlement, but he can 480 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 13: use the power of the bully pulpit, and there are 481 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 13: plenty of risks for the president out there. We saw 482 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:30,400 Speaker 13: the Chamber of Commerce come out very strongly and talk 483 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:34,440 Speaker 13: about the impact. We know this will impact Michigan's economy 484 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:38,879 Speaker 13: first and foremost, and of course, without Michigan's sixteen electoral votes, 485 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 13: President Biden wouldn't be President Biden today. So there's a 486 00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,639 Speaker 13: lot riding on this for him. And more than that, 487 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,520 Speaker 13: of course, this is a president who has long said 488 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 13: he is a friend, the best friend the unions as 489 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 13: have ever had, and he is determined to try to 490 00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:57,200 Speaker 13: grow this economy in favor of the lower the middle class, 491 00:26:57,240 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 13: as he talks about from the bottom up. So there's 492 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,880 Speaker 13: a lot writing on this for him. But he I 493 00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:05,439 Speaker 13: think his statement today was very good, and he is 494 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,640 Speaker 13: sending the right people out there to bring these parties 495 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:10,000 Speaker 13: together as best he can. 496 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,840 Speaker 3: Rick Jennie points to a statement from the Chamber of Commerce, 497 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:16,240 Speaker 3: and I want everyone to know we're going to be 498 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 3: talking with Neil Bradley from the Chamber here in studio 499 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 3: in just about a half hour's time. It reads, quote 500 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:26,199 Speaker 3: the uaubed strike and indeed the summer of strikes is 501 00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:29,880 Speaker 3: the natural result of the Biden administration's whole of government 502 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:35,560 Speaker 3: approach to promoting unionization at all costs. I could keep 503 00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:39,080 Speaker 3: reading this statement. Does not get more positive for the president. 504 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,200 Speaker 3: Rick does this blow back on Joe Biden immediately. Republican 505 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 3: candidates for president are already saying it's his fault. 506 00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,280 Speaker 14: Yeah, I mean, shocker. The Chamber of Commerce is attacking 507 00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 14: Joe Biden on his union support. Yeah, no, I mean 508 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 14: you would expect this right. And if anything, I've been 509 00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 14: surprised that the Chamber hasn't been more vocal in an 510 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:00,879 Speaker 14: attempt to get back in the good graces of the 511 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,960 Speaker 14: House Republicans by really pinging on this. But they have 512 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 14: a tricky place to be because a lot of Republicans 513 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 14: are now looking to say, you know, like, how do 514 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 14: we how do we get those union voters. You look 515 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 14: at Donald Trump reaching out directly to union voters this 516 00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,679 Speaker 14: week to say, hey, you know, these Democrats can't help you. 517 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:18,440 Speaker 4: Come along with us. 518 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,600 Speaker 14: We'll bash those corporations. And by the way, what is 519 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 14: the underlying aspect of this that's being missed by most 520 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,600 Speaker 14: of the media, and that is the union workers are 521 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 14: deathly afraid of the ev and the trend toward that 522 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:38,440 Speaker 14: because the biggest company in that category, Tesla, is non union, 523 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,720 Speaker 14: and they're doing just fine. In fact, their market capitalization 524 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 14: is much better than all these companies that they're they're 525 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 14: protesting now and so so what in the world are 526 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,239 Speaker 14: these union guys thinking the future is, Oh, we're going 527 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 14: to hold back the ev revolution in cars, you know, 528 00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,280 Speaker 14: so that we can protect ourselves and get a pension 529 00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,680 Speaker 14: in the process. Pensions were washed out years ago because 530 00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 14: the people managing them couldn't actually keep track of the 531 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,080 Speaker 14: needs of the pensioners and they were underwater. I mean, 532 00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:13,240 Speaker 14: like this union, it sounds like it's going back to 533 00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:17,440 Speaker 14: the nineteen fifties in their approach to negotiating with companies. 534 00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 14: They want one hundred billion dollars in concessions, and these 535 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:25,040 Speaker 14: companies don't have a market cap that's that high. I mean, like, honestly, 536 00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:26,720 Speaker 14: I think the level setting of this is going to 537 00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:30,080 Speaker 14: happen this weekend, and it'll be interesting to see with 538 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,800 Speaker 14: this stand up strike strategy where only you know, three 539 00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:37,440 Speaker 14: locations are affected, whether that's enough to empower the UAW 540 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,960 Speaker 14: to get the kinds of concessions they're looking for. But 541 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:44,040 Speaker 14: I really wonder whether these car companies can afford to 542 00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:45,040 Speaker 14: have these unions. 543 00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:51,880 Speaker 3: I'm compelled by this conversation Jeanie about unionized workers, whether 544 00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 3: it's auto workers or otherwise warming up to the Republican 545 00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,440 Speaker 3: Party an opportunity here for Republicans. On the campaign trail, 546 00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:01,120 Speaker 3: I asked Congressman Costa about that a short time ago, 547 00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:04,760 Speaker 3: a Democrat from California, and he said, look at our actions, 548 00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,480 Speaker 3: not at our words, But how much will Democrats be 549 00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,320 Speaker 3: at risk of losing this important block of voters. I 550 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:12,960 Speaker 3: know the membership is low, but they count on these endorsements. 551 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:15,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, the endorsements are important. 552 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,360 Speaker 13: As we look at the latest Gallop poll, you still 553 00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:23,760 Speaker 13: find support strongest among Democrats, less so amongst independents, and 554 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:27,040 Speaker 13: then certainly least among Republicans. But to your point, it 555 00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,600 Speaker 13: is growing. Republicans should be buying for the support of 556 00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 13: these workers. That's the way our system works. But let's 557 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 13: be realistic here, and I agree with the representative on this. 558 00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,120 Speaker 13: It is going to be a question of who delivers 559 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:45,360 Speaker 13: for these workers. And that's exactly what the Biden campaign 560 00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,240 Speaker 13: was talking about yesterday. That's what they're going to keep 561 00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:51,760 Speaker 13: talking about, which is this idea, look at what we 562 00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,560 Speaker 13: have done for workers, and let's compare that to what 563 00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:58,440 Speaker 13: the Republicans have put forward. Policy wise. We saw the 564 00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,480 Speaker 13: memo from Anita Dunn and she laid out many of 565 00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:05,000 Speaker 13: those statistics there. That's very real and just as one 566 00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,640 Speaker 13: example of that. And I'm struck by Rick talking about 567 00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:11,800 Speaker 13: Elon Musk and Tesla because of course, just this morning 568 00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 13: when the strike, when they went on strike targeted strike. Albeit, 569 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 13: what did Elon Musk do in Twitter? He unverified the UAW. 570 00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:23,800 Speaker 13: So this is somebody who on the one side of 571 00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:26,760 Speaker 13: his mouth talks about out publicly as if he is 572 00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:30,080 Speaker 13: some big populist, and as an owner of Twitter or 573 00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,640 Speaker 13: x now he unverifies the union because it goes on 574 00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:36,960 Speaker 13: targeted strike because to Rick's point, he also owns Tesla, 575 00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:41,040 Speaker 13: which is not a unionized car business or company. And 576 00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 13: then when he was criticized for that and it's pointed out, 577 00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:47,600 Speaker 13: he plups that verification right back. And workers are not 578 00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:52,640 Speaker 13: immune to or unclear about this kind of hypocrisy coming out. 579 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:55,480 Speaker 13: So I think that's something important to keep in mind 580 00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:56,960 Speaker 13: in this conversation as well. 581 00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,640 Speaker 3: Wow, here I just thought they failed to pay their bucks, Genie. 582 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,200 Speaker 4: Rick, I've got less than a minute here. 583 00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:08,560 Speaker 3: I can't does the Labor Secretary, does Gene Sperling provide 584 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:10,960 Speaker 3: any breakthrough here? Can they make a difference this weekend? 585 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:12,080 Speaker 15: You know. 586 00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,560 Speaker 14: Look, I mean it'll be interesting to see what their 587 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:19,120 Speaker 14: instructions are, right, Uh yeah. I agree with previous speakers 588 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,120 Speaker 14: on this program saying it's it's a good thing that 589 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:25,160 Speaker 14: the White House has representatives, you know, in and out 590 00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:28,200 Speaker 14: of the room. And I think that Jean Spurling and 591 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:31,880 Speaker 14: Julie Shue are the perfect to to send. They have 592 00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:35,480 Speaker 14: different appeals and can help. But it's not totally clear 593 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 14: to me, like what is their their mission. Are they 594 00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:43,960 Speaker 14: going to tell the UAW leaders that they're asks are 595 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 14: too high and they got to come down to get 596 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 14: a deal done. 597 00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 2: Are they going to. 598 00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:51,960 Speaker 14: Rustle the the companies to you know, adjust the cola 599 00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 14: so that it's something that's in line. I mean, it's 600 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,920 Speaker 14: not totally clear. And I they are smart enough to 601 00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:02,400 Speaker 14: be agile and and successful, but having the impact of 602 00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:04,960 Speaker 14: having the White House there has got to be positive. 603 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:09,200 Speaker 14: If they're there, you know, with instructions that don't come home. 604 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:10,320 Speaker 14: If you don't have a deal. 605 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,600 Speaker 3: By Monday, well we're going to turn next to the 606 00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:18,240 Speaker 3: other potential cloud hanging over this administration and the capital, 607 00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:21,560 Speaker 3: of course, and that's a potential government shutdown. More to 608 00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:23,840 Speaker 3: report on. Even since we spoke yesterday. We'll have that 609 00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:25,400 Speaker 3: next with Fricking Genie. 610 00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:29,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 611 00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,920 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern. 612 00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:35,200 Speaker 9: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and. 613 00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:36,520 Speaker 2: The Bloomberg Business App. 614 00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,520 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 615 00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:44,040 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 616 00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:48,160 Speaker 3: So we've got two weeks to figure this out, how 617 00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 3: to keep the government from shutting down, and we are 618 00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:55,960 Speaker 3: no closer to a solution today than we were yesterday. 619 00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:59,400 Speaker 3: Certainly a lot of concerns about the debate around defense 620 00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:03,760 Speaker 3: spending in the House. Trouble is that debate can't start 621 00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:07,720 Speaker 3: because a small number of Republican hardliners in the Freedom 622 00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:10,160 Speaker 3: Caucus blocked that from happening this week, and there's just 623 00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:12,960 Speaker 3: no path realizing. A lot of this comes up to 624 00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,760 Speaker 3: the last minute. But people are starting to get nervous 625 00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,359 Speaker 3: two weeks away because this time does feel a bit different. 626 00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:20,359 Speaker 3: As Libby Cantrell told us a couple of weeks back, 627 00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:26,600 Speaker 3: the ingredients to this shutdown are more harrowing than they 628 00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:30,400 Speaker 3: have been in recent history, potentially more poisonous. Congresswoman Katie Porter, 629 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:34,880 Speaker 3: Democrat from California, taking aim at Speaker McCarthy and a 630 00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:37,000 Speaker 3: hearing on Capitol Hill before leaving town. 631 00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:43,239 Speaker 15: We have sixteen days until the government shuts down. Speaker McCarthy, 632 00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:47,439 Speaker 15: who is slow walking government funding bills one by one, 633 00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:52,160 Speaker 15: has only passed one of twelve. I'm a former professor, 634 00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:56,280 Speaker 15: so I know what one of twelve means. The Speaker's 635 00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:56,920 Speaker 15: getting an F. 636 00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:00,240 Speaker 4: Speakers getting an F. 637 00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,160 Speaker 3: She says, let's bring the panel back in Jennie Shanzano 638 00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:06,440 Speaker 3: and Rick Davis Bloomberg Politics contributors. Is that fair, Rick, 639 00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:08,320 Speaker 3: how would you grade Speaker McCarthy. 640 00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:12,880 Speaker 14: Yeah, he's a man on the run. I mean, he 641 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,279 Speaker 14: had some of the most tumultuous meetings this week with 642 00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,200 Speaker 14: his own con caucus. A lot of four letter words 643 00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:22,040 Speaker 14: being thrown back and forth at each other, and no 644 00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:25,359 Speaker 14: really apparent progress other than the fact that now he's 645 00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:27,880 Speaker 14: talking about, you know, like maybe we ought to be 646 00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,480 Speaker 14: working on a minibus and there's a way to package 647 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,839 Speaker 14: together some budget items, and so you can tell he's 648 00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:37,000 Speaker 14: scrambling to find something that he can get people to 649 00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:40,040 Speaker 14: rally around, rather than how he started the week earlier. 650 00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:42,680 Speaker 14: Which is telling everybody, if you don't want to get 651 00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:45,439 Speaker 14: a spending bill passed, throw me out, you know, get 652 00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:47,319 Speaker 14: rid of me as speaker, because I'm going to get 653 00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:47,800 Speaker 14: one done. 654 00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:51,600 Speaker 3: Apparently, you know, there are a number of Republicans in 655 00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:53,799 Speaker 3: the House who are pretty upset about the way this 656 00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:57,160 Speaker 3: is going when it comes to defense spending. Genie Political 657 00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:00,960 Speaker 3: reporting this morning that Hal Rogers and Dave the Republican 658 00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:04,319 Speaker 3: from Ohio, are pushing McCarthy to bring it to the 659 00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,239 Speaker 3: floor instead of getting bogged down in the deal making 660 00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:10,759 Speaker 3: at the committee level dealing with the Freedom Caucus. Is 661 00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:14,080 Speaker 3: there something to this Should Speaker McCarthy start calling bluffs. 662 00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:17,480 Speaker 13: I think he's going to have to. I mean, I 663 00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:21,320 Speaker 13: don't see another way out. You know, at this point, 664 00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:23,759 Speaker 13: if we think about what we are all sort of 665 00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:27,239 Speaker 13: hoping for a best case scenario in all of this 666 00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:30,080 Speaker 13: is a c r It's a heck of a way 667 00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,840 Speaker 13: to budget. You'd never do it in your home, and 668 00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,680 Speaker 13: yet this is where we are in the US Congress. 669 00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:39,839 Speaker 13: He is completely beholden to this far right of his caucus. 670 00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:42,960 Speaker 13: He made this deal, This was in the works in January. 671 00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:45,719 Speaker 13: We don't know what's in the deal except that he 672 00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,759 Speaker 13: has very little room to maneuver, so I think he's 673 00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:50,799 Speaker 13: got to bring this to the floor. I'm not sure 674 00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,959 Speaker 13: if he'll be successful at that, but this is where 675 00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:56,719 Speaker 13: we are today, and I think, you know we what 676 00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,359 Speaker 13: Kevin McCarthy thought he was going to do is sort 677 00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:01,719 Speaker 13: of throw the far right of the Freedom Caucus of 678 00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:06,759 Speaker 13: bone by opening this impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden. And 679 00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:10,959 Speaker 13: they did call his bluff by saying that, okay, we'll 680 00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:13,359 Speaker 13: take that, and now we're still going to hold your 681 00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:18,120 Speaker 13: feet to the fire. You can't operate a caucus this way. 682 00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:22,240 Speaker 13: Kevin McCarthy is in a similar boat to his predecessors 683 00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:25,960 Speaker 13: Paul Ryan and John Bahner, and he is going to 684 00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:29,279 Speaker 13: either have to figure out a way to get them 685 00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,759 Speaker 13: to move forward with the basics of governing, which is 686 00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,640 Speaker 13: to pass a budget and keep the government open, or 687 00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:37,560 Speaker 13: he is going to have to step out of the way. 688 00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:40,439 Speaker 13: The problem for the entire caucus is there's nobody there 689 00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:42,759 Speaker 13: to pick up the slack because who would want to 690 00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:44,040 Speaker 13: be speaker. 691 00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:48,480 Speaker 3: At this point Rick, As we discussed earlier with Congressman Costa, 692 00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,759 Speaker 3: funding for Ukraine is a big sticking point here. When 693 00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:55,400 Speaker 3: you have any conversation about defense spending. Certainly the multi 694 00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:59,439 Speaker 3: billion dollar supplemental request that President Biden has made of 695 00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:03,120 Speaker 3: this congo. We've just learned and it's a headline on 696 00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:07,040 Speaker 3: the terminal right now that Vladimir Zelenski will be at 697 00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:10,120 Speaker 3: the White House on Thursday. We knew there were reports 698 00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:11,759 Speaker 3: he was going to be here next week. We can 699 00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,239 Speaker 3: actually put a day on it this following, of course 700 00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:18,200 Speaker 3: the United Nations General Assembly meeting. Well, having the President 701 00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:20,759 Speaker 3: of Ukraine back in town and I'm sure he's going 702 00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:25,600 Speaker 3: to visit Capitol Hill as well, have any impact on 703 00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:27,200 Speaker 3: the debate that we're hearing now. 704 00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:31,680 Speaker 14: Absolutely. I mean, he is the best advocate that Ukraine 705 00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:36,399 Speaker 14: has ever had. His speeches to Congress and congresses all 706 00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:40,720 Speaker 14: over the world in Allied Group nations has been part 707 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:44,919 Speaker 14: and parcel with the selling of their defense of their 708 00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:49,239 Speaker 14: homeland against Russian aggression. And you can't count him out. 709 00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:53,719 Speaker 14: He's an impressive figure who can articulate the importance of 710 00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,360 Speaker 14: the battle that he's fighting for the rest of the world. 711 00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:59,520 Speaker 14: And so he'll start the week in New York at 712 00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:02,440 Speaker 14: the General Assembly and make a big splash there. And 713 00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:05,760 Speaker 14: I think that's the kind of momentum that this cause 714 00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:09,440 Speaker 14: constantly has to be thinking about. And it's very conscious 715 00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:13,000 Speaker 14: on the part of Zelenski's regime to keep the world 716 00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:16,399 Speaker 14: focused on Ukraine, and so by his physical presence, by 717 00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:20,560 Speaker 14: just going to Washington and being with Biden and seeing 718 00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:24,040 Speaker 14: members of Congress, reminds them every single day that these 719 00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:27,239 Speaker 14: are real people who are shedding blood and treasure, you know, 720 00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:29,920 Speaker 14: to fight the Russians on all of our behalf. So 721 00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:33,879 Speaker 14: I think it's a savvy move. I'm not surprised They've 722 00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:37,600 Speaker 14: been smart about how to sell this war, and I 723 00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:40,759 Speaker 14: think it will result in a lot of Republicans who 724 00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:43,200 Speaker 14: have been sort of stucking up to putin in the 725 00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:46,120 Speaker 14: House of Representatives to shut up for a couple of weeks, 726 00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:47,600 Speaker 14: and that may be the opening they need. 727 00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:53,279 Speaker 3: As only Rick Davis could say, Jeanie, he addressed a 728 00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:54,960 Speaker 3: joint session of Congress, it was December. 729 00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:55,879 Speaker 4: I actually had to look back. 730 00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,200 Speaker 3: It wasn't this year, the very end of last right 731 00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:01,360 Speaker 3: before Christmas that was arguably the high water mark for 732 00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:06,960 Speaker 3: support here in Washington. Remembering the Ukrainian flags lining Pennsylvania 733 00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:10,799 Speaker 3: Avenue alongside the Stars and stripes. Could this visit bring 734 00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:12,440 Speaker 3: us back to that level of support. 735 00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,080 Speaker 13: You know, I think it can. And that is the 736 00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:19,000 Speaker 13: real danger here because we've all seen the polls as support, 737 00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:23,480 Speaker 13: particularly on the Republican side, has started to diminish. And 738 00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:27,080 Speaker 13: it is not that Americans, Republicans or Democrats don't support 739 00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:30,360 Speaker 13: Ukraine's cause, but that they are concerned about the amount 740 00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,839 Speaker 13: of spending. So that's really what's got to be addressed here. 741 00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:37,440 Speaker 13: And you know, the reality is Republicans in the House today, 742 00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:40,400 Speaker 13: this is where they find themselves with a caucus that 743 00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:43,920 Speaker 13: is going to be, to Rick's point, cheerleading for Putin, 744 00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:48,320 Speaker 13: not supporting funding for Ukraine, trying to impeach the president 745 00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:52,560 Speaker 13: on flimsy on flimsy evidence, and of course shutting down 746 00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:54,960 Speaker 13: the government. It's no place for the party to be 747 00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:57,799 Speaker 13: and the President is going to make the most of that. 748 00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:00,600 Speaker 13: So that's the danger for those Democrats I am in 749 00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:04,040 Speaker 13: New York who won Republicans rather who won in Biden districts. 750 00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,000 Speaker 13: They are living in fear that their caucus has gone 751 00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:10,479 Speaker 13: amok and that it is so magnetized at this point 752 00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:13,080 Speaker 13: that they can't win in these districts anymore. 753 00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:17,680 Speaker 3: Jenny Shanzino and Rick Davis, I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. 754 00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:22,839 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. 755 00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:26,360 Speaker 1: Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern. 756 00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:29,560 Speaker 9: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and. 757 00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:30,879 Speaker 2: The Bloomberg Business App. 758 00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,880 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 759 00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:38,400 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 760 00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:41,919 Speaker 3: I always get a kick out of politicians who refer 761 00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:44,239 Speaker 3: to themselves as the third person, or anyone for that matter. 762 00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:47,279 Speaker 4: You know, Bob Dole thinks Bob Dole is gonna win. 763 00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:48,840 Speaker 4: Donald Trump does it too. 764 00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:51,279 Speaker 3: He's always talking about that, you know Trump Trump said this, 765 00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:57,680 Speaker 3: Trump did that, the Trump brand. But it goes even 766 00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:01,040 Speaker 3: further when you're referring to your alter e go as 767 00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:01,920 Speaker 3: a different person. 768 00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:02,200 Speaker 2: Right. 769 00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:05,359 Speaker 3: Enter Dark Brandon, which we've talked about quite a bit. 770 00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:09,719 Speaker 3: President Biden out today with a new video to try 771 00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:14,280 Speaker 3: to sell a dark brand in a color changing Dark 772 00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:19,280 Speaker 3: Brandon mug. Picture the President. Here's the mug. He's pouring 773 00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:22,120 Speaker 3: hot water into it as if he's making tea. 774 00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:23,799 Speaker 2: I maybe you should buy this mug. 775 00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:28,200 Speaker 6: I'll ask you nicely what he wanted. 776 00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:32,720 Speaker 4: That's so weird. 777 00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:35,839 Speaker 3: So you see the picture of Biden with the glasses 778 00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:39,880 Speaker 3: and the eyes turn red when you pour hot liquid 779 00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:44,040 Speaker 3: into the mug. I'll ask you nicely, but he won't. 780 00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:48,960 Speaker 3: Genie Shanzano help me out here. Is this normal for someone, 781 00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:52,240 Speaker 3: or namely a president, to be referring to their alter ego? 782 00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:55,520 Speaker 4: Like this? Is this working again for Joe Biden? 783 00:42:57,080 --> 00:42:59,480 Speaker 13: I think it's working. Joe, I have the most boring 784 00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:02,200 Speaker 13: coffee I wanted Dirk Brandon one. 785 00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:03,600 Speaker 4: I love it. 786 00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,719 Speaker 13: Kudos to the team for putting this together. And Joe, 787 00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:09,000 Speaker 13: I want to know who your alter ego is because 788 00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:09,840 Speaker 13: we're going to start. 789 00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:14,719 Speaker 3: Thanks you, Okay, Laurio, we'll talk about that off the air. Rick, 790 00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:16,640 Speaker 3: was you buy one just for a souvenir? It could 791 00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:18,120 Speaker 3: be a collector's item. 792 00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:18,680 Speaker 2: Yeah. 793 00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:20,759 Speaker 14: I love the way the eyes turn red. I mean 794 00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:23,399 Speaker 14: it's not just you know, like a color changing, it's 795 00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:28,320 Speaker 14: color changing evil red. So I can't remember in Canada 796 00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:31,759 Speaker 14: having a alter ego. So this is all new to me. 797 00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:35,520 Speaker 4: I kind of I'm digging it. And you were on 798 00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,960 Speaker 4: the Dole campaign, you knowd about and that's Bob Doll. 799 00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:40,880 Speaker 14: But he didn't actually have it ego. 800 00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:45,759 Speaker 3: It's just him exactly all right, Joe Matthews going to 801 00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:48,040 Speaker 3: say goodbye to the panel now, Rick Davis and Genie 802 00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:50,400 Speaker 3: Shanza and I love you guys. Happy Friday. Thanks for 803 00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:52,040 Speaker 3: another great week of analysis. 804 00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:58,400 Speaker 4: You will only hear them here on Bloomberg. Thanks for 805 00:43:58,440 --> 00:43:59,920 Speaker 4: listening to the Sound On podcast. 806 00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:03,120 Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 807 00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,600 Speaker 3: and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can 808 00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:08,640 Speaker 3: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one 809 00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:13,480 Speaker 3: pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com