1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:06,720
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

3
00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680
Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day

4
00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280
Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

5
00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,880
Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

6
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680
Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine

7
00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,280
Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

8
00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,919
Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

9
00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,080
Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. So here's the LASiS

10
00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:39,879
Speaker 2: this morning, the President urging Garan to stand down as

11
00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:42,880
Speaker 2: the Middle East conflict rages into a sixth day to round,

12
00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,800
Speaker 2: claiming it's confident it could counter a ground invasion, and

13
00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:49,000
Speaker 2: the US President Tellinggangxios he must be involved in selecting

14
00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:51,199
Speaker 2: Garrant's next leader. Bank with us a good friend of

15
00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:53,680
Speaker 2: this program over the years, the Republican Congressman French Hill

16
00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:56,400
Speaker 2: joins us now for more. Congressman Hill, welcome back to

17
00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,480
Speaker 2: the program. Are you satisfied with the rationale for this operation?

18
00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:04,080
Speaker 3: In a well? Jonathan's good to be with you. Yes,

19
00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:07,120
Speaker 3: I am. I mean this has been fifty years of

20
00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:13,280
Speaker 3: counting American bodies the caused at the hands of the IRGC,

21
00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:19,679
Speaker 3: the Kuds Force Iranian IEDs. This has been an on standing,

22
00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:25,200
Speaker 3: long standing gray zone war between Iran and the West

23
00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:29,360
Speaker 3: for all these years. And the President set out the

24
00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,080
Speaker 3: goal of they will not obtain a nuclear weapon, and

25
00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:36,600
Speaker 3: we have not been successful in four different presidential administrations

26
00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:41,199
Speaker 3: of achieving that through negotiation. And the Israelis are concerned

27
00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:47,080
Speaker 3: with the advancing ballistic missile development, technology, technology sharing by Iran,

28
00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:52,080
Speaker 3: plus the continued dedication to producing a nuclear weapon, that

29
00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:55,520
Speaker 3: that risk in the region had reached a breaking point.

30
00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:58,200
Speaker 2: There is, as you know, Congressman, a domestic price to

31
00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:01,840
Speaker 2: pay in more ways than one. Unfortunately, for this conversation

32
00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:03,840
Speaker 2: we're going to focus on the market aspect. There are

33
00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:06,880
Speaker 2: much more important issues that play as well, gas prices,

34
00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:10,760
Speaker 2: a climate. What's your assessment of the disruptions to energy

35
00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,360
Speaker 2: flows one and two. The kind of remedies that the

36
00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:14,840
Speaker 2: US government can offer right now?

37
00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:18,160
Speaker 3: Well, I think some of the remedies are You've heard

38
00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:22,760
Speaker 3: Treasure's secutary investment talk about supporting the insurance markets. Of course,

39
00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:26,160
Speaker 3: the United States Navy is going to do their part

40
00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,240
Speaker 3: to support a transit of the strait of our moves,

41
00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:33,440
Speaker 3: which benefits everyone in the markets. But as you pointed

42
00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:36,960
Speaker 3: out in your reporting, you've just got a risk at

43
00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,320
Speaker 3: the margin of Iran striking a production facility or a

44
00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:44,400
Speaker 3: transit ship, and so that has really chilled the oil

45
00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,000
Speaker 3: transit market in the Gulf.

46
00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:47,880
Speaker 4: I think this is temporary.

47
00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:50,080
Speaker 3: I think it's going to be handled over the next

48
00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:51,960
Speaker 3: few weeks. I don't think it's going to have a

49
00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:56,160
Speaker 3: permanent impact on the oil markets. If you think about

50
00:02:56,880 --> 00:03:01,400
Speaker 3: Iran's contribution to oil production, eighty percent of it's been

51
00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:05,080
Speaker 3: sold to China, and during the first Trump administration it

52
00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:08,680
Speaker 3: was completely shut down in terms of production due to

53
00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:13,400
Speaker 3: then maximum pressure sanction campaign that was undone by the

54
00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:16,800
Speaker 3: Biden administration with biding letting them back into the oil

55
00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:20,000
Speaker 3: markets and back into the financial markets and freeing up

56
00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:22,160
Speaker 3: a bunch of frozen assets.

57
00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:24,840
Speaker 4: So I think this I.

58
00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:28,760
Speaker 3: Don't believe will have a lasting effect on markets, but

59
00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,440
Speaker 3: certainly has an important short term effect as we're seeing

60
00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:34,360
Speaker 3: in oil markets and in the insurance markets.

61
00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:38,080
Speaker 5: Congressman, would you support measures like using and tapping the

62
00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:41,040
Speaker 5: spr the strategic patroil and reserve to try to mitigate

63
00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:43,080
Speaker 5: some of the price increases even in the short term

64
00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:45,360
Speaker 5: that people are already feeling when they go fill up

65
00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:45,880
Speaker 5: their cars.

66
00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:50,160
Speaker 3: Well, I think that's a decision the Treasury Secretary and

67
00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,800
Speaker 3: the Cabinet needs to make. If they think that's in

68
00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:57,520
Speaker 3: the right reason, then I certainly would chourage them to

69
00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:01,400
Speaker 3: consider it. We experienced that with Joe Biden during the

70
00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:05,800
Speaker 3: Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it was microscopic. The actual

71
00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:11,160
Speaker 3: hit I mean the sense per barrel from a strategic

72
00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:15,840
Speaker 3: patroyum reserve release or not that measurable. So if the

73
00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:21,039
Speaker 3: whole production and distribution of oil were disrupted, then that

74
00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:23,919
Speaker 3: might make a bigger contribution. But we saw even in

75
00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:28,680
Speaker 3: the Russian case that that was not worth, in my judgment,

76
00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:32,520
Speaker 3: draining the strategic patroying reserve, which Joe Biden did. As

77
00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:36,800
Speaker 3: you know, Europe pivoted and the Gulf pivoted, and the

78
00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:41,600
Speaker 3: sources of both oil and gas quickly replumbed their distribution

79
00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:44,479
Speaker 3: to benefit Europe after that invasion. So I think that

80
00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:46,800
Speaker 3: was a premature decision by Joe Biden.

81
00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:51,120
Speaker 5: Congressman, there also are some strategic questions the Congress has

82
00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:54,360
Speaker 5: to face, including how to prepare the United States better

83
00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:58,039
Speaker 5: and frankly restock some of the munitions that are being depleted.

84
00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:01,680
Speaker 5: There's a fifty billion dollars bill current in your hands,

85
00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:04,799
Speaker 5: in your house, and I'm just wondering, would you support

86
00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:08,919
Speaker 5: an additional funding measure to try to help stockpile some

87
00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:12,440
Speaker 5: additional supplies. Should this be a prolonged conflict, and if

88
00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:14,120
Speaker 5: there are any additional conflicts in the future.

89
00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:18,280
Speaker 3: Well, there was a significant work on that in the

90
00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:21,400
Speaker 3: Big Beautiful Bill last summer. There was nine billion dollars

91
00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:26,719
Speaker 3: allocated to the Pentagon to specifically work on the munitions

92
00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:31,240
Speaker 3: supply chain. We've certainly seen that taken to action in

93
00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,920
Speaker 3: Arkansas and Camden, Arkansas, where we've seen a significant increase

94
00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:40,159
Speaker 3: in munitions in rocket engine production the cause of the

95
00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:44,240
Speaker 3: Pentagon's focus on supply chain. Plus, yesterday we just marked

96
00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:48,240
Speaker 3: up in the House Financial Services Committee the Reauthorization and

97
00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:53,760
Speaker 3: Modernization of the Defense Production Act, which specifically focused on

98
00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:57,719
Speaker 3: obviously DoD production, but also the medical supply chain and

99
00:05:57,720 --> 00:05:59,360
Speaker 3: the critical mineral supply chain.

100
00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:00,440
Speaker 4: We think that's good bill.

101
00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:02,960
Speaker 3: It came out of Committee forty one to zero, so

102
00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:06,560
Speaker 3: it's a strong bipartisan bill, and we're working with the

103
00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:10,840
Speaker 3: administration on that, but both the Armed Services Committees and

104
00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:14,000
Speaker 3: the Defense Production Act the Treasury are all working on

105
00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:17,920
Speaker 3: that munition supply chain. But with all that said, and

106
00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,160
Speaker 3: the money that we've already set aside in the Big

107
00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:25,040
Speaker 3: Beautiful Bill, I think if military operations continue in the Gulf,

108
00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:28,000
Speaker 3: I think the Congress will be confronted with a supplemental

109
00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:29,840
Speaker 3: appropriation to support that effort.

110
00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:33,360
Speaker 2: Congressman, you want the chair of the Highest Financial Services Committee.

111
00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,480
Speaker 2: Of course, now would be a good time to hear

112
00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:37,880
Speaker 2: from Chairman Powell. Are there any plans to have that

113
00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:39,520
Speaker 2: semianual testimony anytime soon?

114
00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:43,080
Speaker 3: You bet. We have invited him. We're trying to find

115
00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:45,159
Speaker 3: a date and coordinate that date with the Senate Banking

116
00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,880
Speaker 3: Committee because we typically do those hearings back to back.

117
00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:50,440
Speaker 4: So I hope that that can happen soon.

118
00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:54,680
Speaker 2: Stay with us. Mult Bloomberg surveyan's coming up after this

119
00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:07,400
Speaker 2: rising crude adding to inflation feares potentially for the Federal Reserve,

120
00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:10,360
Speaker 2: Retail gasoline prices in the United States reaching their highest

121
00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:13,400
Speaker 2: levels in eighteen months, the search and energy costs coming

122
00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:15,720
Speaker 2: ahead of fresh routs on the economy with payroll states

123
00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,600
Speaker 2: that you are eight thirty Eastern time joining us around

124
00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:20,480
Speaker 2: the table. I'm pleased to say here in New York

125
00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:22,680
Speaker 2: the Fed Governor Chris Wallach, Governor Wan look good to

126
00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:23,080
Speaker 2: see us, sir.

127
00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:24,440
Speaker 4: It's good to see you all again.

128
00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:26,360
Speaker 2: When we planned this, I thought you'd come in and

129
00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:29,080
Speaker 2: talk about the labor market, but something else has taken over.

130
00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:31,560
Speaker 2: What's your assessment of developments in the Middle East and

131
00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:33,960
Speaker 2: ultimately what it means for you and the committee.

132
00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I guess that's exactly The thing is,

133
00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:37,600
Speaker 6: what you're going to see is you're going to see

134
00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:40,640
Speaker 6: a spike and gasoline prices after the American citizens are

135
00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:42,040
Speaker 6: going to see when they go to the pump, and

136
00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:43,960
Speaker 6: they're going to stare at it and be a little

137
00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:47,640
Speaker 6: shocked in terms of how things go. But for us

138
00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:50,960
Speaker 6: thinking about policy going forward, this is unlikely to cause

139
00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:53,920
Speaker 6: sustained inflation. This one reason we don't look at energy

140
00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:57,280
Speaker 6: prices where we look at core. Core is a better

141
00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:00,080
Speaker 6: predictor of future inflation. You're going to see this, but

142
00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:03,800
Speaker 6: once these kind of supply chain issues that you laid out, Lisa,

143
00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:06,640
Speaker 6: once they unravel, this will start coming back down. So

144
00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,080
Speaker 6: it's kind of a very odd to think about the

145
00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:13,120
Speaker 6: FEDS maybe changing rates six months from now based on this,

146
00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:16,400
Speaker 6: If it's unwound in a like as you said, Jonson,

147
00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,560
Speaker 6: in a couple of weeks or even two months.

148
00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:20,160
Speaker 4: It's not going to be a big factor down the road.

149
00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:22,880
Speaker 6: So this is why we never look at energy prices.

150
00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:24,440
Speaker 4: They bounce up, they come back down.

151
00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:28,240
Speaker 6: It's not that it's something that we don't feel sympathy

152
00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:29,920
Speaker 6: for people that that's what they have to pay when

153
00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,360
Speaker 6: they put the gas in their cars. But for us

154
00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:34,640
Speaker 6: thinking about the longer term in terms of policy, this

155
00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:36,120
Speaker 6: is something we're just gonna have to kind.

156
00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:36,960
Speaker 4: Of put off for now.

157
00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,000
Speaker 2: When does it become something bigger if it's so.

158
00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:41,760
Speaker 6: It becomes bigger, if it becomes more permanent, because then

159
00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:43,679
Speaker 6: what's going to happen. You're going to see this jump

160
00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,920
Speaker 6: in prices. Then it'll start bleeding through to other parts

161
00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:48,160
Speaker 6: of the economy.

162
00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:49,000
Speaker 4: Energy is a big part.

163
00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:52,120
Speaker 6: It feeds into everything else, and then somehow those energy

164
00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:54,120
Speaker 6: costs get passed along like everything else.

165
00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:55,600
Speaker 4: Well, that's what you're more worried about.

166
00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,480
Speaker 2: Economists on any given day, Lisa might myself and they'll

167
00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:00,320
Speaker 2: talk about the experience of the seven so and coming

168
00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,000
Speaker 2: out of the pandemic, and they'll say things like the

169
00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,880
Speaker 2: officials of the fenders of a someone conditions good by

170
00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:07,880
Speaker 2: some of that. It's not your experience of things.

171
00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:09,960
Speaker 6: Well, in the seventies, remember we didn't just have one.

172
00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:13,040
Speaker 6: We had massive oil shocks. If you take seventy three,

173
00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,680
Speaker 6: the price of oil quadrupled overnight. It went from four

174
00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:19,400
Speaker 6: dollars a barrel was at twelve dollars a barrow or three,

175
00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:21,760
Speaker 6: or went from three or whatever the numbers were. But

176
00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:23,680
Speaker 6: that was a shock, and it never came back down,

177
00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:26,120
Speaker 6: and then there was another one. Every time you turned around,

178
00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:28,199
Speaker 6: there was another oil shock. Then I ran oil and

179
00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:31,040
Speaker 6: bargo in seventy nine. So that was kind of the

180
00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:33,000
Speaker 6: problem with the oil shocks. They just kept coming and

181
00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:35,480
Speaker 6: coming and coming. So it's not clear this will be

182
00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:37,880
Speaker 6: one shock after another after another.

183
00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:39,680
Speaker 4: So that's why I'm more willing to.

184
00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:41,959
Speaker 6: Say this is, I hate to say, but more like

185
00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:44,000
Speaker 6: a one off event than what we saw in the

186
00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:44,920
Speaker 6: nineteen seventies.

187
00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:49,079
Speaker 1: As roseenn Rosennadena used to say, it's always something because

188
00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:51,319
Speaker 1: if it's not just it's not just the oil shocks,

189
00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:52,920
Speaker 1: it's the whole idea. Now we're going to have a

190
00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:56,560
Speaker 1: whole new round of tariffs coming through the economy, and

191
00:09:56,600 --> 00:10:00,360
Speaker 1: we've got this low fire, low higher economy. How long

192
00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,840
Speaker 1: do you think that continues? Does this just push out

193
00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:06,400
Speaker 1: the time period for companies to sit on their hands

194
00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:09,080
Speaker 1: not invest because they don't know what's going to happen.

195
00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:11,439
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, this is one of the things I've

196
00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:13,599
Speaker 6: been concerned about since last June, is how week the

197
00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,520
Speaker 6: labor market has been. There were a lot of factors

198
00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,200
Speaker 6: last summer that we're driving this kind of low higher,

199
00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:23,360
Speaker 6: low fire. It looked like maybe in January we might

200
00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:26,040
Speaker 6: be turning a corner. We'll find out today whether that was,

201
00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:29,960
Speaker 6: as I said last week, signal or noise. But you know,

202
00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:32,160
Speaker 6: when you're in this world in which the labor market,

203
00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:34,040
Speaker 6: even with one hundred and thirty thousand jobs, it was

204
00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:37,040
Speaker 6: really concentrating a couple of sectors eighty percent of the economy,

205
00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:39,000
Speaker 6: the labor market wasn't doing anything.

206
00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:40,680
Speaker 4: It was zero negative.

207
00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:44,520
Speaker 6: So that kind of fragility wouldn't take much for some

208
00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,319
Speaker 6: sort of a serious shock to sort of start pushing

209
00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:50,880
Speaker 6: people in another direction. Whether this is that kind of

210
00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:52,960
Speaker 6: shock or not, we'll start finding out.

211
00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:55,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's early, because of course these are going to

212
00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,360
Speaker 1: be January numbers. But you've been on record as saying

213
00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:00,840
Speaker 1: you'd like to cut more because you still worried about

214
00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,920
Speaker 1: where the labor market is. What would it take to

215
00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:08,679
Speaker 1: get you to back off on that feeling, because if

216
00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,599
Speaker 1: we get the same sort of numbers we had in December,

217
00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:16,200
Speaker 1: it still shows very narrow breadth of hiring, and it

218
00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:19,760
Speaker 1: still shows some reasonably good numbers for hiring.

219
00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:25,440
Speaker 6: Yeah, the even with the January report, like I said,

220
00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:27,360
Speaker 6: it was all concentrated in a couple of sectors, So.

221
00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:28,840
Speaker 4: That was good. They were robust.

222
00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,160
Speaker 6: We got a big number, well above everybody's estimate to

223
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:35,000
Speaker 6: break even, But the concentration didn't give me a lot

224
00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:37,600
Speaker 6: of comfort that the economy as a whole was doing

225
00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:42,200
Speaker 6: really well. So that's where my brain is telling me.

226
00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,080
Speaker 6: The number was good and the economy looks okay. It

227
00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:47,200
Speaker 6: was above break even, but my guts are telling me

228
00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:49,640
Speaker 6: it may not be that good. And that's where I'm

229
00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:52,520
Speaker 6: waiting to see what today's numbers. I'm almost certain it's

230
00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:55,160
Speaker 6: going to get revised down because they have. This has

231
00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:57,200
Speaker 6: been a pattern in January the last few years.

232
00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,560
Speaker 5: A pair of these two ideas, the idea of the

233
00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,920
Speaker 5: oil that's creating some concerns about inflation and then a

234
00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:04,920
Speaker 5: labor market that kind of is in question, right, is

235
00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:08,480
Speaker 5: it decelerating or is it reaccelerating. How much has your

236
00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:14,680
Speaker 5: reaction changed potentially to Friday's today's report, given the fact

237
00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:16,839
Speaker 5: that we do see energy prices pushing on inflation. In

238
00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:19,880
Speaker 5: other words, would you be less inclined to cut rates

239
00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:23,440
Speaker 5: if there is strength that's demonstrated in the labor market today.

240
00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:26,160
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's kind of what I was hinting at last week,

241
00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:28,960
Speaker 6: that if we get another solid job report then last month,

242
00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:32,839
Speaker 6: this month looks like the labor market's turning around. A

243
00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:34,880
Speaker 6: lot of the downside risk I've been worried about for

244
00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,720
Speaker 6: six months is kind of going away. We got a

245
00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:40,120
Speaker 6: hot We're going to get a hot PCE number given

246
00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:42,520
Speaker 6: what we already have seen coming in, that's going to

247
00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:47,400
Speaker 6: probably print from everything I've seen about a point four. Okay,

248
00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,360
Speaker 6: usually that comes down again. We've had this January effect,

249
00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:54,440
Speaker 6: we have some more passories of tariffs, but because that

250
00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,080
Speaker 6: inflation's hot, it's going to look even worse now with

251
00:12:57,160 --> 00:13:00,200
Speaker 6: the oil prices, at least on headline. And then if

252
00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,000
Speaker 6: you get a sellid job, it does say you can

253
00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:04,119
Speaker 6: sit there and wait.

254
00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:06,719
Speaker 5: Let's say the counterfactual. Let's say we don't get a

255
00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:08,600
Speaker 5: good print. Let's go we see the weakness that you

256
00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:10,280
Speaker 5: see right now when you talk to people in your

257
00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:13,280
Speaker 5: district and that you speak to in the different districts

258
00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:15,680
Speaker 5: as well as beyond. How much do you think the

259
00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:18,520
Speaker 5: FED should react to this because it's sort of the

260
00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:21,440
Speaker 5: dual mandate is in conflict and absolutely the wrong way.

261
00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:23,720
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, that's the tension we've had for the

262
00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:26,880
Speaker 6: last years. I've been more worried about the labor market

263
00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:29,440
Speaker 6: risk the inflation risk. I've always believed inflation was going

264
00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:31,760
Speaker 6: to come back down once tear if effects passed through.

265
00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:34,960
Speaker 6: My other colleagues on the committee are much more concerned

266
00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:35,720
Speaker 6: about the inflation.

267
00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:37,280
Speaker 4: It's been high for five years.

268
00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:40,079
Speaker 6: They're not seeing it coming down, and they think the

269
00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:40,920
Speaker 6: labor market is.

270
00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:42,720
Speaker 4: All stabilized, it's all supply side.

271
00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,400
Speaker 6: So these are the two different views that people have

272
00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:48,080
Speaker 6: about thinking about policy. And I was more willing to

273
00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:50,240
Speaker 6: cut rates because I was more worried about the labor market,

274
00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:54,320
Speaker 6: not as worried about inflation coming down. But like I said,

275
00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:57,000
Speaker 6: if the labor market continues to go weak, if this

276
00:13:57,040 --> 00:13:59,840
Speaker 6: thing comes in, I mean ADP was promising the other day.

277
00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:04,520
Speaker 6: So if the labor market is good, inflation's hotter, and

278
00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:06,920
Speaker 6: we think it's fine to kind of wait another meeting

279
00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,000
Speaker 6: and kind of see. But if we get a bad number,

280
00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:12,120
Speaker 6: or January's revised down to some really low number like

281
00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:15,920
Speaker 6: ADP got revised in half, laf Mark's just not that good.

282
00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,560
Speaker 6: And so the question is why are you just sitting

283
00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:21,240
Speaker 6: on your hands? So I could certainly see this meeting

284
00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:23,000
Speaker 6: going on the way depending on the data this week

285
00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:24,960
Speaker 6: and the CPI next week comes in.

286
00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:26,640
Speaker 2: I hate to be the ones who asked this question,

287
00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:28,960
Speaker 2: but what's a good report? Because at eight thirty East

288
00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:30,760
Speaker 2: in time, but we'll be asking that question ab outselves.

289
00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:32,480
Speaker 2: What's good to you? What does good look like?

290
00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:33,440
Speaker 4: Well?

291
00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:35,440
Speaker 6: I think good would be if you saw another number

292
00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:37,680
Speaker 6: like January, that would be really good because you're well

293
00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:40,600
Speaker 6: above everybody's break even estimates at that point, and that'd

294
00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:41,560
Speaker 6: be two in a row.

295
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:43,080
Speaker 4: Looks like it's going through.

296
00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:46,080
Speaker 6: We got very good numbers off the ISM, manufacturing and

297
00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:49,560
Speaker 6: services this week. That's another indication that maybe things are

298
00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,360
Speaker 6: turning around. So if that's the case, I'm starting to

299
00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,480
Speaker 6: see less downside risk now on the tariff stuff. I

300
00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:58,840
Speaker 6: still have a view that all the tariff risk is

301
00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:03,040
Speaker 6: to the downside. I just don't see big increases in

302
00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,080
Speaker 6: tariffs spread all over the place.

303
00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:06,480
Speaker 4: If anything, they're going to come down.

304
00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:09,480
Speaker 6: Estimates of this are coming down, deals are going to

305
00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:11,680
Speaker 6: potentially get made. So I don't see a lot of

306
00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:13,880
Speaker 6: tear for risk going even though there's more uncertain there's

307
00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:15,720
Speaker 6: always the uncertain I don't see a lot of price

308
00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,680
Speaker 6: pressures from what we think could happen going forward. So

309
00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:20,760
Speaker 6: that's going to bring I think that's going to bring

310
00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:23,600
Speaker 6: inflation down or take pressure off, and it'll take something,

311
00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:24,320
Speaker 6: the uncertainty off.

312
00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:27,000
Speaker 1: At some point, well, it becomes a question of what

313
00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:29,280
Speaker 1: problem are you trying to solve and what tool are

314
00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,800
Speaker 1: you using to do it. How would cutting rates by

315
00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:36,400
Speaker 1: twenty five or fifty basis points help the labor market

316
00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:39,920
Speaker 1: If companies are sitting on their hands because they're still

317
00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,800
Speaker 1: waiting for tariff news and we've got a war going on.

318
00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:44,840
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean we can always say, ah, we can't

319
00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:46,080
Speaker 6: do anything, just sit there.

320
00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:47,520
Speaker 4: That's not my job.

321
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:49,880
Speaker 6: My job is trying to help the economy and achieve

322
00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:52,280
Speaker 6: our dual mandate. And if the labor market's not looking good,

323
00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:53,720
Speaker 6: then I have to make this trade off.

324
00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:57,320
Speaker 1: But does it make a difference to the CEOs?

325
00:15:58,120 --> 00:15:58,880
Speaker 4: Well, maybe not.

326
00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:01,400
Speaker 6: I mean that's from saying we could argue about whether

327
00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:04,400
Speaker 6: monetary policy has any effect in general on the labor market.

328
00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:08,280
Speaker 6: There's you know, you go back in economics, back to

329
00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:10,440
Speaker 6: the eighties and nineties, there's a whole camp of people

330
00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:14,080
Speaker 6: that said Manitari policy is completely irrelevant for the economy.

331
00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:15,480
Speaker 4: So quit wasting your time.

332
00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,200
Speaker 2: You're opening up a very different conversation. Yeah, that's a

333
00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,120
Speaker 2: whole bitt we can spend a long time on. I

334
00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:21,880
Speaker 2: wanted to squeeze this in. I actually think it's one

335
00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,160
Speaker 2: of the more important topics at the moment. We're not

336
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,880
Speaker 2: seeing a tightning of financial conditions a material one in

337
00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:29,520
Speaker 2: public markets. I don't see that in stocks, I don't

338
00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:31,600
Speaker 2: see that in bumb yields. I'm wondering what on earth

339
00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:34,720
Speaker 2: you see in private markets, because every day there's another

340
00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:38,880
Speaker 2: headline about another fund, another company struggling to meet redemptions.

341
00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,280
Speaker 2: What is the Federal Reserve assessment of what is happening?

342
00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,160
Speaker 2: Because that has powered this economy, some people might say,

343
00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:46,560
Speaker 2: in a bigger way than the Federal Reserve, or for

344
00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:48,840
Speaker 2: that matter, public markets have what is coming.

345
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:50,000
Speaker 4: On, Well, there's a couple things.

346
00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:52,480
Speaker 6: I mean, in general, I'm not I don't see big,

347
00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:55,600
Speaker 6: really big, widespread problems in the private credit market. What

348
00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:59,400
Speaker 6: you're seeing is a couple of cases of certainly frauds

349
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:03,640
Speaker 6: that fraud widespread, I don't. You know, it's hard to

350
00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,040
Speaker 6: believe that the entire correct private credit market is being

351
00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:09,760
Speaker 6: driven by fraud or bubble posting of collateral. So these

352
00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:11,240
Speaker 6: are kind of these one off things that get a

353
00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,000
Speaker 6: lot of headlines, but it's not clear it's systemic. You

354
00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:15,679
Speaker 6: have to kind of look at whether there are a

355
00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:19,639
Speaker 6: lot of you know, there's different types of private credit.

356
00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:22,600
Speaker 6: There's stuff that's in high yield, you know, risky junk

357
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:24,960
Speaker 6: bond stuff, and there's other stuff that's better quality in

358
00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:26,320
Speaker 6: terms of what they're funding.

359
00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:28,400
Speaker 4: So I don't think as a whole.

360
00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:32,080
Speaker 6: The private credit market is in any serious trouble. But

361
00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:34,280
Speaker 6: you're going to have these things popping up here and there,

362
00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:36,040
Speaker 6: But I don't think there's enough of it that's going

363
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:39,880
Speaker 6: to somehow drive down the financial markets and create any

364
00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 6: kind of financial stability problems.

365
00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:46,679
Speaker 2: Stay with us. Multiple impax Savanance coming up off to this.

366
00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,000
Speaker 2: So here's the lisis this morning. The War in the

367
00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,639
Speaker 2: Middle ag sending energy cast surging across the globe, the

368
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,400
Speaker 2: price of crude sitting at a multi year high, while

369
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 2: European natural gas is set for its biggest weekly gain

370
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,560
Speaker 2: since the energy crisis of twenty twenty two. John guess

371
00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:12,040
Speaker 2: Now is the European Energy Commissioner. Dani Jorkinson, Commissioner, Welcome

372
00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:14,880
Speaker 2: to the program. So what's your assessment of the disruption

373
00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,840
Speaker 2: to supply to Europe over the past few days.

374
00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:22,680
Speaker 7: Well, first of all, it's important to say that it's

375
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:25,960
Speaker 7: not actually so much that it's disruption of supply that

376
00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:29,040
Speaker 7: creates problems, because first of all, we don't get any

377
00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,600
Speaker 7: oil or gas from our RNT directly, and we get

378
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:36,119
Speaker 7: some limited amounts of gas from the Gulf region overall.

379
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,439
Speaker 7: But that's not it's not nothing, but it's not the

380
00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:42,760
Speaker 7: big problem. The big problem is the effects on the

381
00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:46,119
Speaker 7: global markets, and of course those effects on the global

382
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 7: markets also hits consumers in Europe, especially on oil and

383
00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:52,920
Speaker 7: on LERG.

384
00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,440
Speaker 5: So, Commissioner, do you see a reason to try to

385
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,560
Speaker 5: step in and stave off some of the increases in

386
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:00,480
Speaker 5: price or do you think that this will well right

387
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 5: size itself because ultimately the EU isn't as dependent on

388
00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:07,240
Speaker 5: around and sort of some of the regional supplies.

389
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:12,720
Speaker 7: So I saw earlier that you compared this crisis through

390
00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:17,240
Speaker 7: the crisis in twenty two when Russia started as full

391
00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:21,159
Speaker 7: scale invasion in Ukraine. And I understand why, because this

392
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:23,200
Speaker 7: is the worst crisis we've had since. But it's also

393
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 7: important to say that we are we are not close

394
00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:30,360
Speaker 7: to the level of crisis that we have in twenty two.

395
00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,880
Speaker 7: The prices are higher, yes, but not close to as

396
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,880
Speaker 7: high as they were there, So that's number one. Number two.

397
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:39,160
Speaker 7: We are also much better situated to dealing with these

398
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:43,439
Speaker 7: price increases. We have a more diversified energy system, meaning that,

399
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 7: for instance, on gas, we get the gas from more

400
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:49,840
Speaker 7: different sources. So our number one source is Norway. Number

401
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,920
Speaker 7: two is the US. A few years back, that used

402
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,000
Speaker 7: to be Russia. Now we've said we want to stop

403
00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:59,840
Speaker 7: the import from Russia for obvious reasons. So this diversification

404
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:03,000
Speaker 7: puts US in a better place. Also, we've reduced our

405
00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:06,040
Speaker 7: consumption of gas and we're deploying more renewables every year.

406
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 7: This means that we get cheaper energy, it means that

407
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:12,639
Speaker 7: we get home grown energy. And it of course also

408
00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:17,520
Speaker 7: means that we are in better control of our own

409
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 7: destiny in these areas than we were before, but we

410
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 7: are still exposed to the global markets, so we don't

411
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:24,200
Speaker 7: take it lightly.

412
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 5: Commissioner, have you had any conversations with Chris right over

413
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 5: in the United States about potentially increasing local fied natural

414
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,440
Speaker 5: gas exports to Europe in order to stave off any

415
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:36,679
Speaker 5: output from Cutter that is interrupted.

416
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:41,639
Speaker 7: Yes, we have a continuous dialogue across the Atlantic, both

417
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 7: with the American administration but also of course with the

418
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,880
Speaker 7: companies and with the sector. And we have to be

419
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 7: thankful that the American companies have been able to supply

420
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:58,760
Speaker 7: us with len G that we've needed because we have

421
00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 7: decided to to ban the import of Russian gas.

422
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:03,400
Speaker 4: We needed, of course to.

423
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 7: Ban this import because we didn't want to continue to

424
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,919
Speaker 7: indirectly help finance pootince war, and of course also pushing

425
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:13,120
Speaker 7: has weaponized energy against us, and we could not accept that.

426
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 7: So we needed other sources, and here the American gas

427
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:20,879
Speaker 7: has been very welcome. And the projections, also because of

428
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 7: the political talks that we've had and what we've done

429
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 7: to facilitated the projections are that that will also increase

430
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 7: in the future.

431
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,639
Speaker 2: Commissioner on Russian crude. These Treasury Department, as you know,

432
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:33,720
Speaker 2: I'm sure you saw the news issued a temporary waiver

433
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 2: to the Indian refiners to purchase Russian crud. What's your

434
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 2: reaction to that given what you just said.

435
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 7: For us, it's very clear we do not wish to

436
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 7: buy Russian energy. We have got a combination of sanctions

437
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 7: and also are.

438
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 2: You disappointed that the Americans are allowing the Indians to

439
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 2: buy that crude.

440
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,640
Speaker 7: That's not up for me to comment on. I can

441
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,639
Speaker 7: definitely say what we want in the European Union is

442
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 7: to hit Russia as hard as possible on their incomes

443
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 7: from energy. Russia they're conducting a terrible brutal war in

444
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 7: Ukraine right now. We're talking about energy. What they do,

445
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 7: for instance, is that they target the energy infrastructure of Ukraine,

446
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 7: leaving the Ukrainians to freeze without electricity and a very

447
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 7: very cold winter, and then when the Ukrainians send people

448
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 7: to repair what's been destroyed, they bomb and kill those

449
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 7: people also. So for us, this is a very serious

450
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,399
Speaker 7: matter and we want to stop our imports completely and

451
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 7: we hope that others will do the same.

452
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 4: And follow this example.

453
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Sevendics podcast, bringing you the best

454
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 2: in market economics, angiot politics. You can watch the show

455
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to

456
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:59,399
Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

457
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the

458
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business

459
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 4: Out mm hmm