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Speaker 1: And when a Mind Lake Kick is live.

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Speaker 2: It is Tuesday night, October fifth year Old Lord, twenty twenty,

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Speaker 2: when we've got a vampac show, but before we talk

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Speaker 2: about anything related to college footballs. It is the rare

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Speaker 2: exception where we're just gonna lead with our show. We

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Speaker 2: look around and things seem a little bit different tonight.

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Speaker 2: And because director Colin is not on the road with

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Speaker 2: me every Saturday in the fall, he kind of hangs

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Speaker 2: around here. Sometimes I know what he's doing, sometimes I

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Speaker 2: don't know what he's doing. But he kind of built

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Speaker 2: us a new studio. If you really look around and

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Speaker 2: think about it, this place is brand new.

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Speaker 1: We just moved in what Colin about fifteen minutes ago.

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Speaker 1: It's great.

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Speaker 2: The air condition works, the camera quality is better. We

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Speaker 2: got spiffy animated graphics, and most importantly, Colin tells me

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Speaker 2: the video will never freeze. And so that's all well

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Speaker 2: and good. We got the same show. We're not changing

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Speaker 2: anything about that. We just don't have to drive nearly

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Speaker 2: as far to get where we're going because we are

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Speaker 2: now high at top downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Real talk though,

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Speaker 2: Thanks to all the folks at CBS, and thanks to

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Speaker 2: all the folks at CBS Sports twenty four to seven

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Speaker 2: Sports as well, But thank you most importantly to you guys,

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Speaker 2: because this is a product of you. And every now

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Speaker 2: and then when I tell you, hey, there are some

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Speaker 2: things happening behind the scenes, I was in a meeting today,

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Speaker 2: there are some things moving forward. From then a crawl

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Speaker 2: to a walk to a run. Now we're hurdling things.

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Speaker 2: All this stuff is because of you. We're not changing

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Speaker 2: thing about the product, We're just making it look a

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Speaker 2: little better. We got a new code of lipstick that

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Speaker 2: we get to put on now. It is all because

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Speaker 2: of you. And this is not the end of that.

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Speaker 2: As Nick Saban said once upon a time, it's only

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Speaker 2: the beginning. So thank you for making all this possible.

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Speaker 2: And in turn, we got some more stuff coming back

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Speaker 2: to you. Again, I can't always talk about it right

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Speaker 2: up front. I just tease teas te's and then eventually

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Speaker 2: down the road it happens. But trust me, things are happening.

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Speaker 1: So thank you. It is with that in mind.

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Speaker 2: Tuesday night, and as I said, it is October fifth,

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Speaker 2: but more importantly, Tuesday night means it is prediction night

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Speaker 2: around here. We're headed to Dallas Saturday. Obviously for the

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Speaker 2: Red River shootout. We're gonna talk about and break down

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Speaker 2: and predict Oklahoma Texas tonight. I've also got Penn State, Iowa,

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Speaker 2: I've got I've got to do Georgia Auburn for you.

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Speaker 2: Some people said, oh, I don't think the upset could

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Speaker 2: happen there.

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Speaker 1: Well, it could. Doesn't mean it's likely, but it could happen.

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Speaker 2: We also got a brand new jap pole sure to

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Speaker 2: be controversial tonight. There is one move in particular that

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Speaker 2: I'm a little bit suspicious of, but not quite as

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Speaker 2: suspicious as when Oklahoma was number three a couple of

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Speaker 2: weeks ago. We do have a number three though some

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Speaker 2: teams won and fell, some teams lost and didn't fall

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Speaker 2: far enough.

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Speaker 1: At least that's what your opinion will be, So we'll

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Speaker 1: discuss all that.

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Speaker 2: I've got to talk in greater detail about Edward's ron

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Speaker 2: in this situation at LSU. I don't think it's going

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Speaker 2: to end well, and I don't really think it has

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Speaker 2: anything to do with what's going to happen this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Like LSU could win or lose by seventeen Saturday, I

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Speaker 2: think they're probably already past the point of no return there,

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Speaker 2: So thank you so much for tuning in at late

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Speaker 2: kick Josh Mics, sure you're following there. I got a

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Speaker 2: couple of more best bets tonight, but we've already released

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Speaker 2: them earlier today. If you're following on Twitter or Instagram,

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Speaker 2: you already saw that. Okay, So with that in mind,

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Speaker 2: as you can see, even though it's the first show

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Speaker 2: in our new studio, we've got a little cup here

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Speaker 2: full of hot water and honey because this is a

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Speaker 2: brand new building, so that's pretty much all we can find.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna hope, fingers crossed that the voice makes it

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Speaker 2: through tonight and come January, I'll just spend a month

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Speaker 2: not talking and we'll fully get it back. Okay, So Texas, Oklahoma,

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Speaker 2: this Saturday noon eastern eleven am local time kickoff, we're

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Speaker 2: gonna be right there on the field for this one.

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Speaker 2: The current number, now, Jesse and I were talking earlier today.

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Speaker 2: The current number, we had two and a half, okay,

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Speaker 2: so but then it moved and so then we had

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma minus three and a half. So that's where the

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Speaker 2: current number rests. I'm gonna show you what our model thinks.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna tell you what we think about the game.

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Speaker 2: But let's talk about this. First off, we're at the

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Speaker 2: halfway point of the season. Really Week six marks the

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Speaker 2: halfway point of the season, but yet you're still early

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Speaker 2: enough in a season where you don't really know what

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Speaker 2: team's peaking point is, what their maximum potential is. In

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Speaker 2: other words, Now, with Texas, you've had some wild swings.

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Speaker 2: You've had them lose outright to Arkansas, you had them

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Speaker 2: just blow the doors off Texas Tech. And so you've

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Speaker 2: seen a lot of variants, just like a roller coaster ride,

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Speaker 2: wild fluctuation. With Oklahoma, at least for the last three weeks,

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Speaker 2: it's been a lot more consistent a result. But when

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Speaker 2: you think about it, they won twenty three to sixteen

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Speaker 2: against Nebraska, sixteen thirteen against West Virginia, thirty seven thirty one,

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Speaker 2: little back door cover there for Kansas State, and they've

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Speaker 2: been more consistent. But there's always this fear. I think

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Speaker 2: there's a fear in the back of a lot of

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Speaker 2: Texas Longhorn fans minds right now or anyone who's going

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Speaker 2: to bet Texas, and that is we've probably seen Texas peaking.

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Speaker 2: I mean that Texas Tech game, they were on fire.

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Speaker 2: I don't know that I've seen Oklahoma peak. Now the

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Speaker 2: follow up question, and the one we're about to dive into,

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Speaker 2: is is that game out there for them?

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Speaker 1: I tend to believe yes.

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Speaker 2: I don't think you can have a roster like Oklahoma

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Speaker 2: has and you never peak.

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Speaker 1: I have that knowledge in the back of your mind.

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Speaker 2: And the more you love Texas this weekend, if you do,

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Speaker 2: the more that whisper is louder and louder in the

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Speaker 2: back of your mind of telling you, Hey, you know

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Speaker 2: that game's out there. You know eventually they're gonna click.

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Speaker 2: You just hope it's not against you.

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Speaker 1: I think Spencer Ratler is the most important player in

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Speaker 1: this game. You could make the argument for b John Robinson.

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Speaker 2: I'm about to talk about Robinson, but I think Spencer

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Speaker 2: Ratler is the most important player in the game.

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Speaker 1: And that is, of course the Oklahoma quarterback.

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Speaker 2: Because I think Texas can win with decent to pretty

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Speaker 2: good numbers from Casey Thompson. I do not think Oklahoma

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Speaker 2: can win with just decent to pretty good numbers for

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Speaker 2: Spencer Ratler. I don't think the running game, while it's

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Speaker 2: not porous, is gonna be there to the degree Oklahoma's

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Speaker 2: gonna need it to be to win. If Spencer Ratler's

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Speaker 2: not on so B plus performance for him relative to

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Speaker 2: his capability level is the minimum baseline, then I need

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Speaker 2: hear from him. But if you go back and you

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Speaker 2: rewatch their game against Kansas State last Saturday, I don't

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Speaker 2: Spencer Ratler not only played very well, I don't think

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Speaker 2: he got credit for the way he played. Now, Oklahoma

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Speaker 2: wasn't terrible running the ball. But Spencer Ratler was asked

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Speaker 2: to do a lot and he did a lot in

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Speaker 2: that game. As it turns out, they needed every one

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Speaker 2: of those thirty seven points and he got it done.

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Speaker 2: So the question now as we move forward to the

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Speaker 2: Texas game, for me is going to be how many

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Speaker 2: explosive plays are there? And if the answer is not

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Speaker 2: a whole lot, then the follow up, which would make

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Speaker 2: me a little more concerned, is can I count on

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Speaker 2: Spencer Ratler in a game he got benched in one

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Speaker 2: year ago? Remember, I think that's probably going to be

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Speaker 2: over discussed this week, but it did happen. Can I

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Speaker 2: count on him to put together enough methodical nine to

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Speaker 2: twelve or thirteen play drives to put enough points on

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Speaker 2: the boy to win the game. And if you could

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Speaker 2: tell me how many points are going to be needed,

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Speaker 2: I appreciate that too. Here's where I really like Texas.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to show you what the model things in

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Speaker 2: the second, but here's where I really like Texas. Where

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Speaker 2: is Spencer, Where's Rattler? May be the most important player

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Speaker 2: in the game. I think Bjhon Robinson, the running back

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Speaker 2: for Texas, is the best player in the game. I

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Speaker 2: am not going to go the Gary Patterson route and

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Speaker 2: tell you he was irresponsibly handled last week. I think

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Speaker 2: those thirty five carries were warranted. But I will also

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Speaker 2: tell you I would worry normally in this spot for

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Speaker 2: Texas about them being able to trade points and then

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Speaker 2: being able to keep up.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if that's going to be the kind

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Speaker 1: of game.

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Speaker 2: I'm not telling you sixteen to thirteen is in the cards,

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Speaker 2: but I'm telling you I think with the presence of

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Speaker 2: a guy like Bjeon Robinson at running back, and also

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Speaker 2: knowing that you can extend drives with him and you

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Speaker 2: can win third downs, but also how effective he is

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Speaker 2: out of the backfield catching the ball, and with the

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Speaker 2: knowledge that last week Deuce Vaughn. I think he had

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Speaker 2: what he had ten catches for one hundred and four yards.

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Speaker 2: In fact, Deuce Vaughan, who is the running back for

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Speaker 2: Kansas State, was their leading receiver last week. So if

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Speaker 2: they were able to do that, I believe Bejon Robinson

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Speaker 2: is going to have a fair amount of success in

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Speaker 2: this game. If you want to know what you should

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Speaker 2: expect from him just the rest of the season, it's

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Speaker 2: Najor Harris. That's exactly how Steve Sarkisian evolved the role

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Speaker 2: of Najor Harris last year.

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Speaker 1: So, Jesse, we're very excited to be at this game.

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Speaker 2: Let's take a look at what the model thinks about it.

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Speaker 2: And right now, as we showed you and you've seen

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Speaker 2: on the lower third, the current number is Oklahoma minus

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Speaker 2: three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Now here's what's interesting.

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Speaker 2: The model not only disagrees with the number, our model

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Speaker 2: actually thinks the wrong team's favorite. Our model has Texas

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Speaker 2: minus one. And so the more I thought about what

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Speaker 2: I can count on in the game, the more I

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Speaker 2: can't stop coming back to the running aspect of it,

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Speaker 2: and the more I can't stop coming back to one feature.

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Speaker 2: Bell cow back Kennedy Brooks is not a bad running back.

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Speaker 2: But man, when I know I've got Bjon Robinson there,

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Speaker 2: and when I know it's a third down game, and

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Speaker 2: when I know that I can count on him, and

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Speaker 2: I don't have to ask Casey Thompson to win the game,

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Speaker 2: even though he's capable of it, to win the game.

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Speaker 2: For me, I look at the consistency that I think

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Speaker 2: Texas can have on the ground, and I do think

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Speaker 2: it gives him the edge. And it's not so much

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Speaker 2: drawing off what I've seen recently. I don't always believe

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Speaker 2: in ooh, man, throw the records out the window for

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Speaker 2: this rivalry game any given team, any given year, I

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Speaker 2: don't always believe in that in this one, I do.

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Speaker 2: This is actually the way the Red River shootout plays out,

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Speaker 2: so independent of what we've seen so far, but also

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Speaker 2: helpfully drawing off of what we've seen so far. I'm

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Speaker 2: not only going to take Texas to cover, I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: also take him to win the game very close, one

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Speaker 2: possession either way.

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Speaker 1: This is not an overly.

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Speaker 2: Confident take it to the bank type pick, but I

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Speaker 2: do slightly leave Texas. So we'll take the horse to

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Speaker 2: cover and we'll take the Horns to win. I'll tell

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Speaker 2: you what I do expect though either way, not only

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Speaker 2: a great game, but obviously a great scene. Now, as

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Speaker 2: I've told you all week, we have never been to

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Speaker 2: the Cotton Boll. We have never gotten to go to

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Speaker 2: this game as a fan, as an esteemed.

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Speaker 1: Member of the media. So we're really looking forward to Saturday.

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Speaker 2: But also, man, I really really tend to believe Academy

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Speaker 2: Sports and Outdoors is going to be well represented in

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Speaker 2: the tailgating scenes all across the country. We're about to

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Speaker 2: do the Penn State Iowa game in just a second.

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Speaker 2: George is going to Auburn. I mean, imagine the tailgating potential.

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Speaker 2: Imagine the tailgating scenes. If you could just take one

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Speaker 2: big spider cam that's that camera above the field, and

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Speaker 2: you can just run it across the United States, and

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Speaker 2: you could look around and look at all those beautiful

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Speaker 2: tents and look at that grill smoke start to hover

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Speaker 2: about eleven about noon, depending on when you're playing. All

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Speaker 2: those smells indescribable. If you walk through a legitimate college

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Speaker 2: tailgating scene, the smells are indescribable. And I'm just talking food,

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Speaker 2: nothing else, not that you would smell anything else.

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Speaker 1: In those tailgates.

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Speaker 2: But Academy Sports and Outdoors is the place to go

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Speaker 2: to get everything you need to make that mental picture

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Speaker 2: that you're sharing with me right now complete. Like I said,

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Speaker 2: they got the canopies, they got the shirts, they got

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Speaker 2: the grills, they got the gear, They got the balls

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Speaker 2: you need to throw around to kill some time.

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Speaker 1: They got everything in between.

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Speaker 2: They are the official sporting good supplier not only of

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Speaker 2: the Big Twelve and the SEC, but of Late Kick.

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Speaker 2: And they and I are both ecstatic at how much

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Speaker 2: you guys have kind of latched onto this idea of

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go and I'm gonna patronize them because they

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Speaker 2: happen to reside on my favorite show, so I appreciate

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Speaker 2: that it's your favorite show. They appreciate that the partnership

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Speaker 2: has kind of spurred you to come to their establishment,

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Speaker 2: or if you can't get there, just go to Academy

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Speaker 2: dot com.

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Speaker 1: It helps everyone out.

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Speaker 2: You know, if I'm being real with you, if you'll

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Speaker 2: look around at this new studio we're in, I'd be

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Speaker 2: lying if I said the kinds of things you're doing

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Speaker 2: with Academy didn't help.

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Speaker 1: Us build stuff like this. So thumbs up. Thank you

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Speaker 1: Academy Sports and outdoors.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go. This is the game that

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Speaker 2: a lot of you are mad that we're not going

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Speaker 2: to be at. Here's your endpoint, Colin Penn State at Iowa.

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Speaker 2: This is a four.

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Speaker 1: Pm Eastern three pm a local time kickoff.

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Speaker 2: It's this Saturday. Iowa is a short favorite right now.

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Speaker 2: This game, I believe is on Fox. Iowa a favorite

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Speaker 2: of under a field goal. So this is really close

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Speaker 2: to a Pickham home field is big here. I don't

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Speaker 2: know how much you would factor it. I think it's

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Speaker 2: worth a good four and three quarter to five points.

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Speaker 2: Kinnick Stadium. When I was up at Penn State a

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Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago, You're talking to some of their

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Speaker 2: staffers after the game. That was the topic on some

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Speaker 2: of their minds is we're starting to look down the

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Speaker 2: road a little bit, you know, all due respect to Villanova,

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Speaker 2: starting to look down the road a little bit. Wonder

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Speaker 2: what time that Iowa game would be? Josh, do you

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Speaker 2: know what time that Iowa game would be?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Guys, being the Fox employee that I am, let me

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Speaker 2: tell you. Oh wait, I have no clue, but I

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Speaker 2: did suspect that it was.

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Speaker 1: Going to be a noon game.

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Speaker 2: Well we didn't get the noon kickoff, but we also

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Speaker 2: don't have a night game to Happy Medium, so it's

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Speaker 2: a four o'clock kickoff. Listen, there's been an ugly, ugly

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Speaker 2: rumor floating around Colin.

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Speaker 1: You know what the rumor is.

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Speaker 2: It is Josh hates Iowa. Josh does not hate Iowa. No,

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Speaker 2: he does not. The ammunition you have used to fuel

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Speaker 2: this rumor is number one. I don't have him ranked

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Speaker 2: as highly in the JP pole as.

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Speaker 1: The AP does. But I got news for you.

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Speaker 2: I don't have Penn State as high in the JP

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Speaker 2: pole that we're going to show you later in the

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Speaker 2: show as the AP does. I haven't been called a

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Speaker 2: Penn State hater. And secondly, this is really what I

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Speaker 2: think it stems from, probably Chris Hassel's trash talk, or

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Speaker 2: as we like to call it, harasslement, but more specifically,

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Speaker 2: I think it's caused we're not going to Iowa City

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Speaker 2: this week. And I just got to tell you this

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Speaker 2: was not an apples to apples. I've already seen Iowa

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Speaker 2: in person this year. I've already seen Penn State in

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Speaker 2: person this year. Conversely, I've never seen this year. Oh

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Speaker 2: you were Texas. I've never gone to red River and

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Speaker 2: it's a rivalry game. Also, it's a new kickoff, so

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Speaker 2: I can get back in Nashville that same day. There

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Speaker 2: was a lot working against this game, but that doesn't

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Speaker 2: mean there's hatred there. So let's dive into the actual game,

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Speaker 2: because the biggest challenge here is finding really the discernible edge.

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Speaker 2: Look how leaned forward I am. I'm into this thing

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Speaker 2: outside of home field advantage? Where are the discernible edges?

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Speaker 2: I sat in what I guess is my office.

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I just stole the conference room today. There's no one

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Speaker 2: in the buildings, so we can sit at wherever we

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Speaker 2: want to. And I sat there and I have paper

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Speaker 2: strown all over the place. I actually, and I rarely

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Speaker 2: do this. I actually went over to our buddies at

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Speaker 2: College Football Nerds and I watched their preview of this

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Speaker 2: game because it was very interested to see what their

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Speaker 2: model said. And I think they had something that was

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Speaker 2: just surd because of all the turnovers Iowa has forced.

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Speaker 1: They had Penn State I think, significantly.

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Speaker 2: Out gaining Iowa and then Iowa winning by double digits,

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Speaker 2: which makes no sense except that it's happened already this year,

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Speaker 2: so yeah, very well could happen. Here I sit, and

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Speaker 2: here I say things like, I am not going to

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Speaker 2: base my predictions on games in the future based off

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Speaker 2: turnovers that have happened in the past.

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Speaker 1: I just don't think it's a good predictor.

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Speaker 2: And then here come Iowa folks and they throw down

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Speaker 2: papers in front of you and say, hey, buddy, we've

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Speaker 2: been doing this for a while. We've been winning turnover margin,

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Speaker 2: and we've been winning games based off a wave of

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Speaker 2: points off turnovers for a while.

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Speaker 1: And here's the thing. They're right. They're right.

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Speaker 2: You keep expecting things to change and they never do.

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Speaker 2: And so Iowa folks are right about that. I just

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Speaker 2: have a very hard time square in that because there

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Speaker 2: aren't a lot of teams out there. Iowa is the unicorn.

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Speaker 2: They're the exception. They're the one team that you can

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Speaker 2: look at and say, you, guys, I think I can

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Speaker 2: count on seven points off turnovers, just non offensive points.

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Speaker 1: I can actually count on them for you. You don't

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Speaker 1: say that about anyone else. That's stupid. You don't ever

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Speaker 1: count on that. But yeah, you can make the argument

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Speaker 1: you're supposed to count on it. Now with Iowa. And

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Speaker 1: here's the problem.

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Speaker 2: I don't have a fancy name for this, but there's

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Speaker 2: a metaphor I always like to use. When you play

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Speaker 2: really solid defense, but you don't have five star athletes

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Speaker 2: all over the place, that means that the sum is

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Speaker 2: greater than the individual parts. That is the hallmark of

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Speaker 2: a great team, and that's the hallmark of a great

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Speaker 2: coaching staff.

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Speaker 1: That's what Iowa is. Do you hear what I just said? Great?

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Speaker 1: Not good? Great?

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Speaker 2: What I always believe about teams like that is if

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Speaker 2: they faced a certain level of athleticism, then you would

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Speaker 2: have a heavy enough sledgehammer to break the ice. If

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Speaker 2: you've ever watched like those ice road truckers, they can

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Speaker 2: drive trucks over that.

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Speaker 1: Ice because the ice is so thick.

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Speaker 2: Well, if you also ever watch Family Matters back in

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Speaker 2: the day when Carl Winslow and fam went out on

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Speaker 2: the lake, it wasn't frozen thick enough to where they

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Speaker 2: could go out there, no questions asked, and the ice

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Speaker 2: starts to crack. Well, Iowa has got some pretty thick

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Speaker 2: ice about their defense. It's really hard to crack it.

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Speaker 2: If they were playing Alabama Saturday, Bama would crack it.

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Speaker 1: Eventually.

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Speaker 2: Bam Bama would score thirty five if they needed to

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Speaker 2: against Iowa.

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Speaker 1: But they're not playing Alabama Saturday.

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Speaker 2: And so my question for a team that I think

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Speaker 2: ranks like sixty second in scoring offense out there in

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Speaker 2: Penn State, my question is simply, do they swing a

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Speaker 2: heavy enough offensive sledgehammer to crack Iowa's ice?

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Speaker 1: I don't think they do. And I also really really

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Speaker 1: need to speak slower when I say.

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Speaker 2: That kind of sentence, because when we're talking about cracking

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Speaker 2: Iowa's ice, if you say it fast, it really sounds

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Speaker 2: a lot dirtier than I wanted to. But I don't

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Speaker 2: think they can do it. Jesse, by the way, producer

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Speaker 2: Jesse up in Connecticut is a Penn State lump. And

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Speaker 2: I pressed him a couple of weeks ago when they

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Speaker 2: played aubur and I said, Jesse, let's just be real

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Speaker 2: between you and me. The fate of your entire families

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Speaker 2: on the line.

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Speaker 1: Who are you picking?

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Speaker 2: He said, I'm go, I'm gonna pick Penn State. And

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Speaker 2: he said it again today, said I'm a pick Penn State.

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Speaker 2: You didn't even ask me to put my family on

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Speaker 2: the line. I'm on Pitfen State. This time, I feel

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Speaker 2: okay about it. Here's the keith of Penn State. Because

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Speaker 2: I don't know, I'm much more trepiditious, if you will,

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Speaker 2: here's the keith of Penn State. Though, they got to

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Speaker 2: be clear about what they need and what I mean

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Speaker 2: by that, since it sounds very common sense school, Penn

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Speaker 2: States just got to be clear about what they need.

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Speaker 2: And here is what I mean to a finer point.

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Speaker 2: If you have an even turnover game, you gotta believe,

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Speaker 2: if you're Penn State, we play some pretty salty defense ourselves.

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Speaker 2: If we can score twenty offensive points in an even

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Speaker 2: turnover game, that should be enough to win. For the record,

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Speaker 2: I believe that in an even turnover game, twenty offensive

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Speaker 2: points plus whatever else you get would be good.

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Speaker 1: Enough to win. Here's what that means.

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Speaker 2: That means if it's third down and thirteen, you just

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Speaker 2: live to fight another set.

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Speaker 1: Of downs and you punt the ball.

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Speaker 2: If you go for it on the third and three, well,

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Speaker 2: of course you go for it on third down. I mean,

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Speaker 2: if you're sitting there third and three and then you're

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Speaker 2: fourth and one, you may have to punt it. You

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Speaker 2: may have to go against the more aggressive script in

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Speaker 2: other words that college football and analytics says you should

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Speaker 2: go because you don't have to trade points.

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Speaker 1: You don't have to do that.

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Speaker 2: You got to understand that Iowa looks at you, and

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Speaker 2: Iowa views one of their most important offensive weapons as

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Speaker 2: your offense. You are one of Iowa's biggest weapons. Iowa

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Speaker 2: State didn't realize it, Maryland didn't realize it. So many

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Speaker 2: victims before Indiana didn't realize it. IWA's best chance to

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Speaker 2: score us when your offense is on the field. So

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Speaker 2: don't let it happen. Be comfortable in being patient, and

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Speaker 2: don't let them sit there and tempt you to come

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Speaker 2: meet them in the deep end of the pool.

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Speaker 1: You don't have to do that.

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Speaker 2: If you trust your recruiting and development and you trust

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Speaker 2: your athletes, over a four quarter game, you should find

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Speaker 2: enough margin to get the victory. But it's not going

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Speaker 2: to happen in the first quarter. It's not gonna happen

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Speaker 2: by halftime in all likelihood. Huge week for Sean Clifford,

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00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,960
Speaker 2: quarterback at Penn State. Huge week for Mike Eurris. It's

437
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:58,200
Speaker 2: formerly Tom erosic Chow this show. They've got to operate

438
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:01,480
Speaker 2: efficiently early because what they can't have is the usual

439
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,440
Speaker 2: Iowa gets up on you and then they just sit

440
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:06,480
Speaker 2: back and get ready. They just duck down in the

441
00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:07,760
Speaker 2: tall grass and they get ready.

442
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:08,479
Speaker 1: You can't have that.

443
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 2: How about for once, try and see what Spencer Petris

444
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:14,720
Speaker 2: looks like when he has to operate under pressure. Try

445
00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:16,480
Speaker 2: and put them in a situation where they got to

446
00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:18,479
Speaker 2: throw the ball. It feels like we'll never see that

447
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,600
Speaker 2: with Iowa. Well, it stands to reason you're the best

448
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:25,239
Speaker 2: team they've played so far. They will you actually are

449
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,040
Speaker 2: also the best team they've played so far, so that

450
00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,359
Speaker 2: kind of balances out. But there's a stat that I

451
00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,439
Speaker 2: don't know if it exists, but I would call it

452
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:36,560
Speaker 2: if it did exist, the Hinge per play factor. The

453
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:38,920
Speaker 2: Hinge per play factor in this game will be off

454
00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:42,840
Speaker 2: the charts, meaning every single play they run in this

455
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:46,760
Speaker 2: thing could have such a wild, wild effect on the outcome.

456
00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:48,879
Speaker 2: Couse points are going to be at such a premium.

457
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:51,960
Speaker 1: So Jesse, let's show the folks what the model ran

458
00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:53,360
Speaker 1: and then said about this thing.

459
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 2: I'm going to tell you what I think. So the

460
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 2: number right now is Iowa minus two. Okay, that's our

461
00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:03,160
Speaker 2: latest number. We again for the second game in a row,

462
00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 2: at least the model thinks the wrong team is favored.

463
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:09,520
Speaker 2: The model has Penn State minus one and a half.

464
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:13,879
Speaker 2: Now what that means is the model believes Penn State

465
00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:16,879
Speaker 2: is about five points better than Iowa on a neutral field,

466
00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:18,680
Speaker 2: and home field's bringing that down there.

467
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:20,159
Speaker 1: That's what it says.

468
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,000
Speaker 2: I believe the gap between the teams is probably a

469
00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 2: little bit smaller than that, and so, by the slimmest

470
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 2: of margins, I will roll with the model. And I'm

471
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,120
Speaker 2: telling you, I'm on the seesaw and it's lean fifty

472
00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:33,720
Speaker 2: one percent over here. But I am gonna take Penn

473
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 2: State to cover, and of course Penn State to win

474
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:39,440
Speaker 2: the game. I really really think that some random special

475
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 2: teams play. I mean, somebody that doesn't field a punt

476
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:45,439
Speaker 2: and lets it go twenty six yards further downfield. That

477
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,200
Speaker 2: is the kind of hinge per play factor that could

478
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 2: literally turn this game. You watch Texas Oklahoma, there may

479
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 2: be fifty or sixty first downs combined. You watch this game,

480
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,119
Speaker 2: you are going to fight, You're gonna knife fight to

481
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 2: get every first down. I personally love that kind of football.

482
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 2: I don't think it has to be a pinball game

483
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,280
Speaker 2: every Saturday. So I love that kind of stuff. Also,

484
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 2: you should probably be out of there. I don't know

485
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 2: by six thirty.

486
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 1: It should be good.

487
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 2: Maybe get home before dark, you know, maybe tossed the

488
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:17,119
Speaker 2: pig around in the front yard. So looking forward to

489
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 2: that one. Oh boy, am I looking forward to that one.

490
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 2: I wish we could be in two places at once. Guys,

491
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 2: thus far we have not figured out a way to

492
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 2: do it.

493
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:26,160
Speaker 1: All right, I got one more game to break down.

494
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 2: Also have JP Pole coming up, Also have best Bets

495
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:32,400
Speaker 2: coming up, So stick around would be my humble advice.

496
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 2: Would you break this game down? If you ran this show,

497
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 2: if this were late Kick with filling the blank? Would

498
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 2: you break this game down? Georgia favored by fourteen and

499
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 2: a half at Auburn. At least that's what the line

500
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 2: was when we made the graphic earlier.

501
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,360
Speaker 1: It still is. I look over at the monitor there.

502
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 2: This is the Saturday three thirty Eastern game on CBS.

503
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:55,719
Speaker 2: Funny thing at Auburn. So Auburn's in Lee County, Alabama. Allegedly,

504
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:59,199
Speaker 2: all of Alabama is on Central Time, but Auburn is

505
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,439
Speaker 2: on Central Time. Phoenix City, Alabama, which is closer to

506
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,920
Speaker 2: the Georgia line. It's right on the Chattahoochee River. They

507
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 2: go on Eastern Time, and so somewhere and no one

508
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 2: really quite knows where the line is in Lee County,

509
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 2: but somewhere, as you're driving out two eighty you cross

510
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: into Central Time and the phones can make no sense

511
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 2: of it. The eye Josh gets thoroughly confused because it

512
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 2: thinks when you cross the river it's supposed to go

513
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,680
Speaker 2: to Central Time. And then you go over and McDonald's

514
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 2: is still not open, and you say, you guys are

515
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 2: supposed to be open. No, but it got await an hour.

516
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 2: So no one really knows how that works. But it

517
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,199
Speaker 2: is a three thirty eastern kickoff. That's what we do know.

518
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 2: It's an interesting little dynamic here, combination of dynamics going on.

519
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 2: I don't know if you guys have noticed, but Georgia

520
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 2: has been crowned in a lot of corners of the

521
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:42,919
Speaker 2: country this week as the best team in the country.

522
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 2: We will show you the jpep ple tonight and see

523
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,359
Speaker 2: if we agree. So you got that going for you

524
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 2: if you're Auburn and in number two Georgia, it is true.

525
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:53,640
Speaker 1: We'll take it on the road in a.

526
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 2: Truly hostile environment for the first and maybe the only

527
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 2: time this year. Because pray for Vanderbilt as we do,

528
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 2: We're not count and Commodore Stadium, where it was Georgia

529
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 2: fans two to one ratio to Vandy fans. So yes,

530
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 2: all that, in the classical sense does figure to make

531
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 2: things hard on Georgia.

532
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:12,679
Speaker 1: So here's what I want us to do.

533
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 2: I want us to be kind and courteous and let's try,

534
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 2: for the sake of all of our Auburn fans to

535
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 2: find a path to the upset.

536
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 1: Okay, we have agreed.

537
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 2: Okay, So yes, it's true the road factor could come

538
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 2: into play here. Georgia has not faced anything like this

539
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:32,120
Speaker 2: this year. I tend to believe it will be a factor,

540
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,360
Speaker 2: but I tend to believe you still have to have

541
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,360
Speaker 2: the kind of team to make it a factor. It's

542
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 2: like when Penn State played Auburn. Yeah, Penn State had

543
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:40,879
Speaker 2: the home environment. They didn't sit around and wait for

544
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 2: the crowd to beat Auburn. They went on the offensive

545
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 2: and ended up beating Auburn. Can Auburn do that?

546
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 1: You know?

547
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,959
Speaker 2: Going on the offensive against Georgia. It's a lot easier

548
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 2: said in a nice, comfortable studio than it is on

549
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 2: a football field. I really wonder does Auburn have the

550
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,440
Speaker 2: ability just as a team, do they have the ability

551
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:01,360
Speaker 2: to get Georgia in any kind of press situation. Georgia

552
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 2: didn't have to sweat against Arkansas, you know, Georgia obviously

553
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 2: didn't have to sweat against Vanderbilt, and really, in retrospect,

554
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 2: we may not have known it fully at the time.

555
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 2: Georgia didn't have to sweat against Clemson, even though it

556
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 2: ended up being a one possion game and Clemson wasn't

557
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 2: gonna score if they played to Wednesday again, as it

558
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 2: turns out. And so I wonder if if Auburn can

559
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 2: make Georgia or force Georgia to try and be aggressive.

560
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 2: And then the second part of that is, I wonder

561
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,919
Speaker 2: if Todd Munkin would be foolish enough to put Stets

562
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 2: and Bene in that position, because this is, you know,

563
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:34,359
Speaker 2: kind of like the Penn State versus Iowa approach. If

564
00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 2: you're Georgia, Punton's not the worst thing in the world.

565
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 2: Thrown the ball away is not the worst thing in

566
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 2: the world because you get the luxury of watching your

567
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 2: defense go on the field and knowing I'd be shocked.

568
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 1: If they move the ball against them.

569
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 2: Now, in reality, it's not always going to look statistically

570
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 2: like it has so far for Georgia's defense. But I mean,

571
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 2: how's Auburn gonna find twenty offensive points here?

572
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 1: I'll just put it to you that way. There are

573
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 1: other ways to score in this game.

574
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 2: We all know that does all and find twenty offensive points.

575
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 2: If so, that would be running it up on George's

576
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 2: defense based on what we've seen so far this year.

577
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 1: But they got to win first downs to even have

578
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 1: a shot at that. If you get predictable on third down.

579
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:17,160
Speaker 1: Have you watched Georgia, It's terrified. It's terrifying.

580
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,639
Speaker 2: And the parents of those players are in the stands

581
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 2: watching you do that to their kids. That's the worst

582
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:25,120
Speaker 2: part about it. It's a decently favorable matchup in one

583
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 2: way for Auburn, and that is you know, Auburn held

584
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 2: LSU I think under Oh yeah, they held him under

585
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 2: thirty yards rushing. They held Penn State under one hundred

586
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:39,399
Speaker 2: yards total rushing. Georgia's running game has gotten on track as.

587
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 1: Of late, but it's been by choice.

588
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 2: So if Auburn is able to limit them running the

589
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 2: ball a little bit, and at the very least, if

590
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 2: it's stets and Bennett, which we assume it will be

591
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 2: at quarterback, if they just make Stets and Bennett have

592
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,679
Speaker 2: to throw the ball to beat him and Todd Monkin

593
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 2: feels like we do want to press the issue a

594
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 2: little bit every time George is putting the ball in

595
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,360
Speaker 2: the air. Yes, theoretically, better things can probably happen for

596
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 2: you in that chain of events than if you're on offense.

597
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,400
Speaker 2: That's how much I respect George's defense right now. But yeah,

598
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 2: I don't know if they can get in that situation.

599
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 2: That's the reason I'm spelling it out so basic there.

600
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 2: I don't think they can get in that situation enough.

601
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 2: But crazier things have happened. Maybe a special team's played

602
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,399
Speaker 2: defensive play. Early for Auburn, it's thirteen to nothing all

603
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:21,360
Speaker 2: of a sudden, and you know they've got twenty six

604
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 2: yards total offense. That would be the kind of rare

605
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 2: but possible fast start they would need. But I really

606
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 2: wonder if it's just played straight up, I don't know

607
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 2: where they find twenty offensive points. And the other thing

608
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 2: to think about, and this is really where it goes

609
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 2: sideways for Auburn, I think is the advantage you had

610
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 2: last week where LSU was spent by the fourth quarter.

611
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 2: That could be George's advantage this week because even though

612
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 2: on the surface you both played high profile matchups last week,

613
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,719
Speaker 2: Georgia never had to sweat. I mean, some of their

614
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 2: key players barely on the field, double digit snaps.

615
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 1: They didn't have to sweat you did.

616
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 2: I mean you played late into the night again and

617
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 2: you played in a hostile environment. You got to win

618
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 2: this time, but you had to fight to do it,

619
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 2: and so you got to ask yourself, there's been.

620
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 1: A tough season now.

621
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 2: Even against Georgia State, you guys had to fight, and

622
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 2: so you keep having to empty the tank. And this

623
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 2: is not a team that you can afford to play

624
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 2: with anything less than a full tank for four quarters

625
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 2: against so Jesse, we tried.

626
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 1: Let's take a look at the model, and let's see

627
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 1: what the model thinks.

628
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 2: I got to tell you, if I was an Auburn fan,

629
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 2: I'd be a little bit encouraged by what the model says.

630
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 2: So the Vegas line right now is Georgia minus fourteen

631
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 2: and a half.

632
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:29,880
Speaker 1: That's what our model says too.

633
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 2: I just got to be honest with you They're going

634
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:35,880
Speaker 2: to be few times this year where Georgia feels truly threatened.

635
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 2: They weren't last week. Maybe Kirby Smart convinced them they

636
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 2: should have been, so you see what the result was.

637
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 2: But he gets to take them on the road this week.

638
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,119
Speaker 2: He called bo Nick's elite in his press conference, and

639
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 2: so I think we all know what that's about. But

640
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 2: he gets to convince his team, he being Kirby Smart,

641
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 2: that they're actually in some danger this week, that this

642
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,680
Speaker 2: could be a treacherous spot for him. I expect nothing

643
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 2: less than the best from Georgia this week, Stetson Bennett

644
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 2: or JT. Daniels, I don't really care. I don't think

645
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,200
Speaker 2: Auburn's got the bullets. I really don't. And so anything

646
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 2: less than fourteen plus non offensive points I think leads

647
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 2: to not only a Georgia win, but I really think

648
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 2: when we get into the second half, I think they're

649
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 2: gonna be able to name the score. So I think

650
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:20,680
Speaker 2: they're gonna run it up a little bit. I think

651
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 2: George is gonna win. I think George is gonna cover,

652
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 2: and we'll probably hear a lot more of the same

653
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 2: coming out of that. If that is the way it goes,

654
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 2: you'll hear a lot more of boy, Georgia looks invincible.

655
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 2: I probably won't think any more of Georgia after this

656
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 2: game than I do right now.

657
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 1: Now.

658
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 2: If they struggle, that things could change. But I think

659
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 2: that it's kind of like we were talking about with

660
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 2: Penn State. Eyway, George has got that really thick layer

661
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 2: of ice, and until you swing a sledgehammer that's heavy

662
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 2: enough to crack that ice, you're gonna be embarrassed against them.

663
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 1: And really, there's only there's one team in this conference

664
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:52,239
Speaker 1: that can probably do it.

665
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 2: There may not be another one in America, but if

666
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 2: there is, there's gonna be one or two max who

667
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 2: could do it.

668
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 1: I just don't think their name is Auburn. That's all

669
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 1: I'm saying Georgia to when I'm gonna take Georgia to cover.

670
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 1: All Right, Colin, here we go sop some of our

671
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 1: lukewarm honeywater. Now it really sues the throat though. I

672
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 1: like that.

673
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 2: Okay, this is not gonna be fun, but we do

674
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 2: have to discuss it because a lot of you have

675
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 2: asked about it. So the whole edors are on LSU

676
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 2: future of the program situation.

677
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit more clear.

678
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 2: Like I know you guys have been talking about it

679
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 2: NonStop on talk radio down there. I know the websites

680
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 2: have been churned in Twitter's been churning. I think it's decided.

681
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 2: I don't think he's gonna be Therey much longer, and

682
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 2: I certainly don't think he'll be here this time next year.

683
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 2: But I think the reason for that does not lie

684
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 2: in the future. This is important to note as we

685
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 2: have a game with LSU going on the road against

686
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 2: Kentucky looming this Saturday. I don't think that game has

687
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 2: much bearing at all on the outcome here, whereas some

688
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 2: other people I've talked to they do think that there's

689
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 2: some other people who are painting this Saturday as a

690
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 2: must win. I think, five years into it ten, that's

691
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 2: always dumb to look at it that way, Like you

692
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 2: don't already know enough. You haven't already gathered enough information

693
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 2: five or in some cases kind of six years in now.

694
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 2: You don't already know everything you need to know about

695
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 2: your head coach. Of course you do if you're waiting

696
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 2: for the outcome of one four quarter game to determine

697
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 2: the future of your program. You're not the right person

698
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 2: to be making the calls to be honest with you.

699
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 2: So I think opposite of how some people think about

700
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 2: that now, a lot of people down there think it's

701
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 2: already decided too. I just think the point of no

702
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 2: return is not in the future, it's already in the

703
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 2: rearview mirror. So let's talk about this for a second,

704
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 2: because I'm I'm sensing some outsiders who did not grow

705
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 2: up and are not of LSU. I sense some people

706
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 2: outside the LSU program don't really get what's happening here.

707
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 2: The outside perspective that I've heard a lot is what's

708
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 2: wrong with those people? They just won a national title

709
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 2: two years ago, Like, how ungrateful can you be? How

710
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 2: much can you lack perspective? They don't lack perspective. They

711
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 2: have perspective. Here's the difference. The difference is you're driving

712
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 2: by the house, they're living in the house. You're seeing

713
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 2: the family at church on Sunday morning. They're in the house.

714
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 2: They see what dad's like when he comes home from

715
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 2: work on Tuesday night. My point is things are far

716
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 2: worse inside the LSU house than anyone from the outside realizes.

717
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 2: And it didn't get that way last night, and it

718
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 2: didn't get that way overnight. It's been that way for

719
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 2: a while. Twenty nineteen has masked it for as long

720
00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 2: as it possibly could, but it's been that way for

721
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 2: quite a while. And I'm not talking about a young team.

722
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 2: I'm not talking about just needing to let some roots plant.

723
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 2: I'm not talking about new coordinators, maybe just needing to

724
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 2: get up some speed, or maybe a recruiting class that

725
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 2: we need to trim some fat off of.

726
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: I'm not talking about that kind of thing.

727
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 2: We're talking about wholesale changes that have to be made.

728
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 2: They've got chronic pr issues up to an including dealing

729
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 2: with the head coach, mainly dealing with the head coach.

730
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 2: They've got a piss poor culture, they've had it for

731
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 2: a while. The internal dynamic there is bad, it has

732
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 2: been for a while. You've got a run game, which

733
00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 2: is the hallmark of any good LSU team, that is

734
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 2: totally evaporated. They couldn't crack twenty five yards on the

735
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 2: ground against Auburn. And then also their inability to make

736
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 2: very basic week one install in fall camp type procedural

737
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 2: decisions in games. It's costing them and it all lies

738
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 2: at the feet of the person who said this, this

739
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 2: version of LSU is my team, because that's what edwar's

740
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 2: Ron told us over the summer. He said, the way

741
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 2: we had to hire Polini last year. You know that

742
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 2: was kind of he insinuated as much that it was

743
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 2: kind of plopped in my lap. I was kind of

744
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 2: force fed that. But don't worry, because now I've made

745
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 2: my hires. This is my team. I'm doing things my way.

746
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 2: I'm gonna do things my way. I'm gonna believe you

747
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 2: when you tell me that. So this is your team.

748
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 2: This is your way and what I'm telling you and

749
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 2: forget me. What more importantly, the LSU fan base is

750
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 2: telling you, is your.

751
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 1: Ways not good enough. So a couple of things can

752
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 1: be true here.

753
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 2: It can be true that edwards Ron was the perfect

754
00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 2: guy for the season of twenty nineteen.

755
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 1: But this is a seasonal game.

756
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 2: You don't just sit there and hit pause and freeze

757
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 2: yourself in time in twenty twenty one and moving forward,

758
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 2: edwars Ron's not the right guy for this season.

759
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 1: In future seasons at LSU, it doesn't mean you ever

760
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 1: take away twenty nineteen.

761
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 2: You know, if you make a move which I think

762
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 2: they will ten years down the road, depending on how

763
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 2: all this off the field stuff shakes itself out. You

764
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 2: can get over your hard feelings. You know, no one's

765
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 2: mad about the run game in twenty thirty. You could

766
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 2: look back and you could bring edwors Ron in there.

767
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 2: You could walk him around the field, and everyone could

768
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 2: could be very jovial about talking about, let's say, in

769
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 2: twenty twenty nine to ten year reunion of that title team.

770
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 2: But that's not right now. Right now, we're not worried

771
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 2: about twenty nineteen. Right now, worried about whether LSU is

772
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 2: gonnaend up going five hundred in a non COVID year

773
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 2: when all the.

774
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 1: Excuses are removed.

775
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 2: So I'm I'm not happy at all that that's the

776
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 2: situation down there. But yet my feelings are independent of

777
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 2: what reality is, and that is the situation down there.

778
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna make a move. I think it's warranted.

779
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 2: And you know, if you watch the show or listen

780
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 2: to this show, I'm the last person who ever say it.

781
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 2: So when I say it, it's normally well past time

782
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 2: for it to happen. I do probably about one segment

783
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 2: like this a year, and that's it like a lot

784
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 2: of Florida fans are hitting me up right now saying,

785
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 2: is it time to move on from Dan Mullen. No, No,

786
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:17,840
Speaker 2: it's not time to move on from Dan. Have you

787
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 2: looked at Florida State in Miami lately? Look at LSU.

788
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 2: That's when you know it's time to move on. If

789
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 2: you're having to ask, it's not time, it's not time.

790
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 2: Please realize, when you're on a ten rung ladder and

791
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 2: you're on rung seven, there's a lot further to go

792
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:33,359
Speaker 2: down than there is to go up.

793
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 1: LSU's not on rung seven.

794
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 2: They're down on rung two or rung three, and so

795
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 2: at that point you are past the point of no return.

796
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 2: It is time to make a move. Okay, with that

797
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 2: in mind, let's talk about the JP pole. So I

798
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 2: got to pull up the thing here because we are

799
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 2: so new in this building. I don't even have a

800
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,240
Speaker 2: printer yet. But here it is. I've got the JP pole. Okay,

801
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 2: quick reminder of what this is. Have to do it

802
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 2: every week and it will fall on death ears or

803
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 2: death ears. This is not a rankings system.

804
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 1: Can't stress it enough. This is not a ranking system.

805
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 2: I can tell you confidently, Iowa is not going to

806
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 2: be in my top five here. If I were filling

807
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 2: out an AP ballot, if I were on the playoff committee,

808
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 2: the University of Iowa would be in my top five

809
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 2: because that is merit based, and that is judged based

810
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:19,359
Speaker 2: on your resume of things you have done. The JP

811
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 2: pole only cares about the future and only cares about

812
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:24,840
Speaker 2: who it would pick against two on a neutral field

813
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:25,800
Speaker 2: if they played tomorrow.

814
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 1: That's it.

815
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 2: Nothing you've done so far matters, at least in terms

816
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 2: of you deserving a reward. It doesn't automatically drop you

817
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 2: if you lose a game. So as sure as I

818
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:38,439
Speaker 2: explained that like sixty percent of you won't get well,

819
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,320
Speaker 2: the sixty percent who comment will not have listened to it,

820
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 2: let me put it that way. But I digress. We're

821
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 2: in it for the love of the show. So let's

822
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 2: go to Colin Jesse. Everybody, let's see it up, and

823
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 2: let's start with the twenty five through twenty one. We

824
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 2: do have. We do have a new entrant here, a

825
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 2: couple of them actually, So wake Forest is at twenty five,

826
00:35:57,800 --> 00:35:59,959
Speaker 2: So the first time the Demon Deacons have been in here.

827
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 2: My taste, I think they're still too low. So even

828
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 2: though this thing says JP pole, I disagree with it

829
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:11,320
Speaker 2: on the regular tech Like, for instance, twenty four UCLA

830
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 2: thoroughly disappointed me last week.

831
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:14,800
Speaker 1: I thought they'd drop out. As it is, they're.

832
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 2: Down to twenty four A and m is down another

833
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,800
Speaker 2: eight spots to twenty three. They're mainly riding just roster

834
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 2: strength right now. That's all that has them in the

835
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 2: top twenty five. Nebraska is at twenty two. They're up

836
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 2: eight spots. Nebraska is in the top twenty five. This

837
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 2: is momentous, and they play Michigan Saturday. Friends, we're gonna

838
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:34,919
Speaker 2: talk a lot more about that game Thursday. I think

839
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 2: I went into a pretty lengthy diatribe about that on

840
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 2: this morning's Late Kick Extra podcast. Clemson is at twenty one.

841
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:44,840
Speaker 2: I'm told Clemson dropped out of the AP Pole. I

842
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:47,880
Speaker 2: don't think that's quite warranted. I think a lot of

843
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 2: people just wanted to do it so they could sound

844
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:51,720
Speaker 2: cool and say we dropped Clemson out of the AP.

845
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 2: I'm telling you there are not twenty five teams that

846
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 2: would be favored against Clemson tomorrow, and that's the way

847
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,759
Speaker 2: this poll works. So you do you will do us, okay,

848
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:01,439
Speaker 2: let's keep moving.

849
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 1: Number twenty is Notre Dame. Notre Dame.

850
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 2: Jesse tells me I had a typo, so he fixed it.

851
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 2: Notre Dame is down one spot to number twenty. Michigan

852
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 2: State rises four spots to nineteen. Kentucky rises three spots

853
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:17,959
Speaker 2: to eighteen. Auburn is sitting there at seventeen. How about

854
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 2: Pit so Pit debuted in the JP pole last week.

855
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 2: They are now up another eight spots. Pit is at sixteen.

856
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 2: Pit's a good team, man. You can hand pick a

857
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 2: few teams that are even above them that you'd probably

858
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 2: rather play this Saturday than playing Pit. I'll show you

859
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 2: right now. Keep on going at number fifteen. Iowa State

860
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 2: still there. Iowa State has lost two games because of

861
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 2: losing the turnover battle, which counts. That means you lose,

862
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 2: but in a pure power rating, it also means you're

863
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 2: not going to drop nearly as far as if you

864
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,839
Speaker 2: just flat out got out gained and outplayed.

865
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 1: Et cetera, et cetera.

866
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:54,439
Speaker 2: That's the difference between rankings and ratings. I would never

867
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 2: rank Iowa State fifteenth. Oregon dropped pretty precipitously, even though

868
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 2: I love weather, you know how rarely I use the

869
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:04,760
Speaker 2: word precipitously when talking football. They're at fourteen. Arizona State's

870
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 2: a big riser. I just think the model's been a

871
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 2: little bit wrong on Arizona State. Now, full disclosure, I'll

872
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 2: tell you why we did manual overrides for Arizona State,

873
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:16,279
Speaker 2: which we normally don't do. In fact, we don't ever

874
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:20,280
Speaker 2: touch most teams. But we manually downgraded Arizona State because

875
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 2: I believed that the internal dynamic there because of the

876
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 2: NCAA stuff, was going to have an impact, and thus

877
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 2: far it really hasn't. So this is basically kind of

878
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:32,799
Speaker 2: removing the manual overrides, and it's back in line now

879
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:35,400
Speaker 2: with what Arizona State would have been if we just

880
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 2: believed in what preview magazine Culture told us. So Arizona

881
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:40,799
Speaker 2: State's at thirteen. There's a really good team. I mean,

882
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 2: they handled UCLA the other night. Arkansas only dropped two

883
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 2: spots to number twelve. We believe that Georgia would do

884
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 2: that to a lot of teams down here. There's no

885
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 2: reason to drop them. Florida dropped seven spots to number eleven.

886
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:55,920
Speaker 2: I think that maybe a little too far. This is

887
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 2: my personal taste. But that only rings true if the

888
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:03,280
Speaker 2: Kentucky game was an outlier. So let's wait and see

889
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 2: if the Kentucky game was an outlier or if that

890
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:08,080
Speaker 2: just ends up being what puts them on a slippery

891
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 2: slope to another eight win season or something like that.

892
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 2: All right, top ten time, Iowa is a top ten team.

893
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 1: Now, do you hear me? Seor what I said? Iowa

894
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:20,880
Speaker 1: is a top ten team? Hassle?

895
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 2: I don't know what more you want from me. Top

896
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,359
Speaker 2: ten is really good. I means there's only nine teams

897
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 2: ahead of you. Means there's one hundred and twenty some

898
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 2: odd teams behind you, and that's great. You finish in

899
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 2: that percentile and you're landing on the honor roll. So

900
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 2: I was at number ten. Again, if I had them ranked,

901
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 2: I would have them ranked higher. This is power rating,

902
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 2: and I was at number ten. Michigan is now a

903
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:44,439
Speaker 2: top ten team. Hello, big ten. Michigan is number nine.

904
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 2: Oklahoma creeping back up one spot at a time to

905
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:51,399
Speaker 2: number eight. There is a team we still haven't mentioned yet.

906
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:53,839
Speaker 2: Have you picked up on it? Ole Miss only dropped two.

907
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 2: Now this is going to rub some people the wrong way, so.

908
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:58,799
Speaker 1: Let me explain to you what this is. It's an

909
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 1: itchy eyebrow. That's one. I'm scratch, went my pen.

910
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 2: What happened was, I think we had ole Miss fifth

911
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 2: and we had Bama one, and the model thought Alabama

912
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:12,879
Speaker 2: would beat ole Miss by twenty one points. Well that's

913
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 2: what happened. They beat them by twenty one points. And

914
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 2: so if the same model that predicted that score had

915
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 2: the teams rated where they were raided, the model sees

916
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 2: no reason to change. In fact, what happened is a

917
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 2: couple of teams jumped Ole Miss. We didn't really drop them.

918
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 2: I don't think their rating changed at all. We didn't

919
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 2: really drop them, but a couple of teams moved ahead

920
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 2: of them, one of them Cincinnati. And Cincinnati is actually unchanged,

921
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:36,800
Speaker 2: but the rating change. I'll show you why in a second.

922
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 2: Cincinnati's number six. How about this top five though, I mean,

923
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 2: you talk about a monumental rise from the ashes. The

924
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:47,920
Speaker 2: Texas Longhorns have gone from being twenty fifth two weeks

925
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:52,720
Speaker 2: ago to now being our number five team. That never happens,

926
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 2: never happens, but in two weeks it's because of the

927
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 2: shift at quarterback that has happened. That's the only way

928
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 2: that could ever happen, Like if oh Burrow got hurt

929
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 2: in twenty nineteen for a couple of weeks and then

930
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 2: he came back. This is the kind of fluctuation you

931
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 2: would see, so crazy. So Texas is number five. That

932
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:10,360
Speaker 2: means we view red River as a top ten matchup.

933
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:13,840
Speaker 2: Penn State's at four. A lot of you are skeptical

934
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 2: about that. I'm just telling you what the model says.

935
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:19,600
Speaker 2: Penn State's at four, Ohio State has vaulted all the

936
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:20,359
Speaker 2: way back up.

937
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:21,240
Speaker 1: To number three.

938
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 2: Keep in mind that team Ohio State lost to Oregon

939
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 2: and we got Oregon at fourteen. Now, we think if

940
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 2: that game were to happen again today, we wouldn't really

941
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 2: care where it was played. We think the outcome would

942
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 2: be different. But that's not the way football works. I

943
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:37,320
Speaker 2: understand that. But we're talking about today moving forward, Ohio

944
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:39,759
Speaker 2: State's all the way back up at number three. Their

945
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 2: resume does not warrant that what the model thinks they

946
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 2: are today moving forward is allegedly what warrants that.

947
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,719
Speaker 1: I'm suspicious of it, but I get it.

948
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:52,919
Speaker 2: It's not the only model out there of this nature

949
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 2: that has Ohio State that high. By the way, Georgia

950
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 2: is still our number two team. There is still about

951
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 2: a one and a quarter point difference in our model

952
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 2: between Alabama and Georgia.

953
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:04,360
Speaker 1: Here's essentially what that means.

954
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 2: It's a coin flip if they played in Atlanta Saturday,

955
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:10,880
Speaker 2: and Alabama's our number one team. This really started to

956
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 2: feel like twenty eleven in the SEC, at least to

957
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:15,440
Speaker 2: the model, a couple of weeks ago, so we started

958
00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:16,319
Speaker 2: talking about it now.

959
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:17,480
Speaker 1: I think that's clear to everyone.

960
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 2: In twenty eleven, Alabama and LSU were on this death

961
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 2: march to a November matchup against each other. Alabama and

962
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:28,839
Speaker 2: Georgia are separating themselves within their conference that same way,

963
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 2: but they don't meet in the regular season, so the

964
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 2: earliest they would face off would be in the SEC

965
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 2: championship game. I think we'll probably end up going to that.

966
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:37,319
Speaker 2: I don't have anything else to do that day, Colin,

967
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:42,160
Speaker 2: so I say that to say this. Back then, the

968
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 2: only way that one of them was going to get

969
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 2: knocked out of the BCS Championship game was that they

970
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 2: had to play each other. And so the thinking out

971
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 2: there was, oh, well, a maximum of one of them

972
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 2: will make the title game. Cause there's no way that

973
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:55,759
Speaker 2: both of them are going to be able to play

974
00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 2: in the title game. They play each other in the

975
00:42:57,120 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 2: regular season. Well, then, and I want amphasize this. My

976
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 2: Iowa State cyclones I think on a Thursday night ended

977
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:07,880
Speaker 2: up beating Oklahoma State. I was in a movie theater.

978
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 2: I was watching the movie Jay Edgar. That's how little

979
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 2: faith I had, and shame on me. But then the

980
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 2: eye Josh, which I don't even think. I was an

981
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 2: Apple customer at the time, So whatever nondescript cell phone

982
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,239
Speaker 2: I had, it started going off. Can you believe what

983
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State just did? What beat him by forty?

984
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 1: No?

985
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:27,840
Speaker 2: They lost, and so I can't remember thinking about Jay Edgar. Luckily,

986
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:29,400
Speaker 2: it was a movie based on history, so I already

987
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 2: know the story because otherwise, if I was watching Jurassic

988
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 2: Park that night, I would have been useless because I

989
00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 2: I was freaking out because I realized we could actually

990
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:41,240
Speaker 2: have a rematch, and then justly, might I id justly

991
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 2: we got Alabama LSU in the title game. Well, that

992
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 2: is starting to become a concern for a lot of you,

993
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 2: and I'm cautioning you don't worry about it. And I'm

994
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 2: gonna tell you why because I just looked at my

995
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 2: calendar and it says October fifth, So stop worrying about

996
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 2: the playoff. I had someone ask me today, Hey, it's

997
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 2: been a great renaissance season at all, But if Alabama

998
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 2: and Georgia were to face off for the national title?

999
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 1: Would that ruin it? Friend?

1000
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:07,799
Speaker 2: It would only ruin your college football season if you

1001
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:09,920
Speaker 2: let one game define your football season.

1002
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 1: So even if you hate George and Alabama, don't worry

1003
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 1: about it.

1004
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 2: Like, why should that have any impact on San Jose

1005
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 2: State versus Colorado State Saturday? Why do I mention that game?

1006
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:21,880
Speaker 2: Because we're about to add it to the Rama Noodle Express.

1007
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:23,920
Speaker 2: Let's wrap it up with that. So I already put

1008
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:26,239
Speaker 2: in Memphis plus four and a half on the Rama

1009
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:28,759
Speaker 2: Noodle Express earlier in the week, and it moved down

1010
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:29,320
Speaker 2: to three.

1011
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:31,440
Speaker 1: And a half. So I hope you guys got this.

1012
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:34,000
Speaker 2: Wine is so imperative be following on Twitter and Instagram

1013
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:36,400
Speaker 2: at Lake Kick Josh. So, Memphis plus four and a

1014
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:38,400
Speaker 2: half we've already put on the Roman Noodle Express.

1015
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 1: We're adding two more games. One of them.

1016
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 2: Oh boy, it's square, It's as square as a cheeze it.

1017
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 2: But We're gonna do it anyway because the model likes it.

1018
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 2: Wake Forest is favored by six. They're on the road

1019
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:51,840
Speaker 2: at Syracuse. It is a classic too good to be

1020
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 2: true line, But the model likes it, so I don't

1021
00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 2: really care if one hundred percent of the public's on it.

1022
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:58,399
Speaker 2: We're going to be right there with you, and we're

1023
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:00,840
Speaker 2: going to complete the one hundred percent. So wake Forest

1024
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:03,360
Speaker 2: minus six get it before it goes to there's some

1025
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 2: five and a halfs out there right now. Actually it

1026
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 2: wasn't wide enough available for me to offer it, so

1027
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:09,879
Speaker 2: five and hal's a dead number.

1028
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 1: Anyway.

1029
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:12,839
Speaker 2: We'll take wake Forest minus six and San Jose State.

1030
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 2: They really struggle to do things up to an including scoring,

1031
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 2: but the Model likes them, so Hoomstar, we to question

1032
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:23,080
Speaker 2: when the model likes someone. San Jose State plus two

1033
00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 2: they're on the road at Colorado State. That is where

1034
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 2: Vandy ended up winning a game for us. So if

1035
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:31,399
Speaker 2: Vandy did it, I mean certainly San Jose State could

1036
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 2: pull It's not It's not even that far of a flight.

1037
00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 2: So we're taking San Jose State plus two, we're taking

1038
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:38,719
Speaker 2: wake Forest minus six, and we're taking Memphis plus four

1039
00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:41,840
Speaker 2: and a half. Only three games so far, and I

1040
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 2: can assure you we're not going to end the week

1041
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 2: with just three games, so make sure you're paying attention

1042
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:49,760
Speaker 2: on Twitter and Instagram. At late kick, Josh, that wraps

1043
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:53,400
Speaker 2: up our inaugural trip around the new studio.

1044
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:54,480
Speaker 1: I am.

1045
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 2: I'm part happy that we're in our new place, high

1046
00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:02,280
Speaker 2: at Top downtown Nashville, beautiful view outside, but I'm most

1047
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 2: happy that my voice made it, and so I'm gonna

1048
00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 2: shut up. I'm gonna get off Aeron now. Thank you

1049
00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:09,360
Speaker 2: so much for making this possible, Thank you for tuning in.

1050
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:12,120
Speaker 2: Make sure you check out the lake It Extra podcast

1051
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:12,919
Speaker 2: from earlier today.

1052
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:13,879
Speaker 1: We had some fun there.

1053
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 2: There are always some little nuggets on those podcasts and

1054
00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 2: they're only available there. That never make it on YouTube,

1055
00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 2: they never make it on social media, so you gotta

1056
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 2: be listening.

1057
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:23,279
Speaker 1: And I know.

1058
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 2: Goodwell, you guys got thirty minutes out of your day

1059
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 2: to replace something you don't want to be doing with

1060
00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:29,360
Speaker 2: something hopefully you do want to.

1061
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:31,399
Speaker 1: So with that in mind, we're out of here.

1062
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 2: For director Colin, for our entire staff, Jesse and Cruely Connecticut.

1063
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:36,879
Speaker 1: I'm Josh Baton. Thanks so much for watching a great

1064
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:38,120
Speaker 1: wrest Fornight Guys,