WEBVTT - Engine Explosion Spurring Boeing 777 Groundings 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.400 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:04.440 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanibek. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:09.799 you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.600 plus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:17.119 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.600 analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:23.200 download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.120 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.840 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:34.320 YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Everyone's talking about those new 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:36.720 findings in the UK that how the COVID I ten 0:00:36.840 --> 0:00:39.600 vaccines are providing a high level of protection against infection 0:00:39.640 --> 0:00:42.680 and illness after a single dose. I mean, there's implications 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:45.240 of this, there are, but it's great news that you know. Look, 0:00:45.320 --> 0:00:47.159 this is happening in real time. We've talked about this 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:50.480 a lot totally. These vaccines are used under emergency use authorization. 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:53.240 It means they haven't been tested in the same way 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:55.920 that all vaccines are usually tested over a year's long period. 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:57.880 So we are learning things now that we didn't know 0:00:57.960 --> 0:01:00.040 yet write the data sets continue to come out, So 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:03.279 let's get into it with Dr Sandro Galleia. He's back 0:01:03.320 --> 0:01:05.920 with Ustina, professor at Boston University School of Public Health, 0:01:05.959 --> 0:01:08.679 author of the upcoming book The Contagion Next Time that 0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:11.120 is due out in the fall. Dr Galia is so 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:13.280 nice to have you back with us. Um, how are you. 0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:16.560 I'm wel Carol, thank you for having me to hear 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:18.440 from you again. Well, it's great to hear from you 0:01:18.520 --> 0:01:20.720 as well. So tell us about this news out of 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:23.360 the UK, and I think there's you know what this 0:01:23.440 --> 0:01:29.640 might mean in terms of asymptomatic infection and you know, 0:01:29.840 --> 0:01:32.880 transmission of COVID. I mean, these are things that are 0:01:32.920 --> 0:01:35.000 that are coming out. Tell us about the significance of 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:38.160 this or what you see maybe as a significance. Yeah, 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:42.039 this vaccine has been consistently remarkable, really vaccine news. I 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:44.120 mean we have we shouldn't forget as a world that 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:46.840 we have achieved something extraordinary in terms of vaccines available 0:01:47.040 --> 0:01:49.440 in such a short period of time. The latest news 0:01:49.600 --> 0:01:53.279 shows that the single dose of the vaccine is highly 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:57.080 efficacious in terms of preventing symptomatic COVID, but also I'll 0:01:57.080 --> 0:02:00.320 get to in a second, preventing severe COVID and really 0:02:00.360 --> 0:02:02.720 makes a difference, right because we have been we have 0:02:02.840 --> 0:02:06.520 been accounting for vaccination rates assuming that everybody is getting 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:08.679 two vaccines. But if we can have a lot of 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:11.000 people getting one vaccine, that will allow us to do 0:02:11.080 --> 0:02:14.240 things much faster. On the Fiser vaccine front, news also 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:16.800 came out that the Fiser vaccine can be kept in 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:19.080 a regular freezer, doesn't have to be a minus a 0:02:19.120 --> 0:02:22.000 DE freezer, which from a supply chain point of view 0:02:22.000 --> 0:02:26.480 makes a big difference. So this really creates opportunities for 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:31.880 national governments to stretch the vaccine much further then we 0:02:31.919 --> 0:02:33.799 have done so far, because of course, as you know, 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:38.080 our limitation has been the manufacturing that we have not 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:40.360 been able to manufacture and provide as many vaccines as 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:43.280 we need to vaccinate everybody as quickly as possible. So 0:02:43.520 --> 0:02:46.320 this is really all good. And you also Carrel mentioned 0:02:46.320 --> 0:02:51.240 the variance and the data are that this vaccine appears 0:02:51.240 --> 0:02:54.360 to be explicacious as well against the UK variant. Now 0:02:54.360 --> 0:02:57.320 there's still some questions about the South African variant, but 0:02:57.560 --> 0:03:00.440 this is all this is all positive know. So much 0:03:00.440 --> 0:03:03.200 of the early data that we see come from countries 0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:06.760 using the visor BioNTech vaccine, But we don't see many 0:03:06.760 --> 0:03:10.040 of these early results showing what's going on with the 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:12.919 MODERNA vaccine, which is the vaccine that so many Americans 0:03:13.520 --> 0:03:17.639 have been getting. Should we expect that we'd see similar 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:22.040 results because they're both MR and A vaccines, I think so. 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:24.519 I think I think you can for a variet of reasons. 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:27.560 One is the very similar mechanism, as you say, and 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:29.959 and the data that we do have actually showed that 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:32.160 the two words very similarly. We didn't talk in the 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:36.240 first round about severe COVID. So what's the most amazing 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:40.240 thing about these vaccines is that they have essentially reduced 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:43.720 severe COVID dramatically, even much more dramatic than a sinmtematic COVID. 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:46.280 And ultimately that's what we want, right, Ultimately we do 0:03:46.360 --> 0:03:50.360 not want COVID to be severe. So all the vaccine 0:03:50.400 --> 0:03:52.760 trials out there, there really has not been a single 0:03:53.120 --> 0:03:55.760 death from COVID in anybody who receives vaccine. And that's 0:03:55.840 --> 0:03:59.200 in all the five vaccines that have been whose trials, 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:01.960 factory trials, and they're so far so all these vaccines 0:04:02.000 --> 0:04:05.680 really are highly effective against reducing what we want them 0:04:05.720 --> 0:04:08.880 to reduce, which is severe COVID, right, And that's what 0:04:09.000 --> 0:04:14.520 it ultimately is about. Do you have um confidence by 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:21.080 spring by summer that we will have her immunity. Well, 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:22.960 confidence is a tough thing to come by and things 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:27.159 like that these days, I think, I think the best 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:31.120 models out there, including the cdseas on models, suggests that 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:36.120 we are will be getting towards towards enough immunity that 0:04:36.240 --> 0:04:39.280 essentially reduces rapid transmission. Of avoiding the term herd immunity 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:42.600 because it's become bit of a loaded term um by 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:45.080 by summer. Now, whether or not that means by the 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:46.760 end of spring, beginning of summer, or by the middle 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:48.840 of summer, late summer, I think that's very hard to say. 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:51.520 I think the big caveat that everybody says, when you 0:04:51.560 --> 0:04:54.200 think about this, and all the good models say correctly 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:58.800 that that assumes the transmissibility of the virus as it 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:01.680 is now, which means it doesn't take into account if 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:04.279 any of the variants take over and they're much more transmissible, 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:06.360 because of course that changes the whole formula. You were 0:05:06.400 --> 0:05:10.400 hesitant about using the word herd immunity. Tell me why well, 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:12.800 I think that term, like many other terms, as we've 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:16.279 discussed on the show before, has become politicized. It has somehow. 0:05:16.560 --> 0:05:19.120 I mean, it's a term that has been used in 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:22.600 um infectiously epitemology for a long time simply to mean 0:05:23.080 --> 0:05:25.040 they wouldn't have a population where there are not enough 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:28.240 people who are susceptible to the disease that it stops transmission. 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:31.880 But the terms has acquired these political undertones of well, 0:05:31.920 --> 0:05:35.040 are we letting people get the disease intentionally, which obviously 0:05:35.200 --> 0:05:37.120 is not what it means. And all it means is 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:39.880 you don't have enough people who are susceptible and the 0:05:40.000 --> 0:05:44.120 virus stops transmitting. Hey, Dr galia Um. Look, these vaccines 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:45.680 have been out for for more than two months at 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:47.839 least here in the US. More and more people are 0:05:47.920 --> 0:05:50.920 getting vaccinated. Don't you think that people can start to 0:05:50.960 --> 0:05:54.280 act differently after they've been vaccinated, given how affective these 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:58.160 vaccines are. Yeah, that's an excellent question, and this has 0:05:58.200 --> 0:06:01.160 been I think controversial lately. You know, I think what 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:05.000 we're seeing is a lag in our guidance and in 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:07.640 our systems that are have been put in place to 0:06:07.720 --> 0:06:10.960 protect us with the reality of a post vaccination world. 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:14.120 And and we've seen some some more and more people writing, well, 0:06:14.320 --> 0:06:17.120 you know, if people are vaccinated, is it not reasonable 0:06:17.240 --> 0:06:19.320 that whence you're vaccine you can expect to re enter 0:06:19.360 --> 0:06:22.160 the world much more fully? The four answer is yes absolutely. 0:06:22.200 --> 0:06:25.120 The short answer is yes absolutely. The problem is the problem. 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:28.000 The problem is that we don't have enough people vaccinated 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:30.920 yet to be able to say defectively. All right, I'm 0:06:30.920 --> 0:06:33.320 gonna leave it there. Thank you so much, really appreciate it. 0:06:33.400 --> 0:06:36.320 Dr Sandra Gala doing at the Boston University School of 0:06:36.360 --> 0:06:38.520 Public Health joining us on the phone from Boston. That 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:40.279 was an important point you made. It's a big question 0:06:40.320 --> 0:06:42.000 that so many of my friends have right now. Right 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:43.920 it's like our parents are getting vaccinated, when are we 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:45.159 going to be able to see them? When can our 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:47.159 kids see their grandparents? Well, and this concern about can 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:50.280 you get the vaccine but still transmit COVID, it's a key. 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:54.479 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:58.720 Quick Takes Tim Stinovic from Bloomberg Radio. This story it 0:06:58.880 --> 0:07:01.440 is still among Burg Business Week, or I should say 0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:03.400 this is still among the most read on the Bloomberg 0:07:03.560 --> 0:07:06.640 terminal and it's by Bloomberg business Week future writer and 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:10.160 New York Times bestselling author Ashley Vance. He wrote this story. 0:07:10.440 --> 0:07:13.240 He's also host of Hello World and author of Elon Musk, 0:07:13.280 --> 0:07:16.040 Tesla SpaceX, and The Quest for a Fantastic Future. He's 0:07:16.080 --> 0:07:18.760 on the phone from Palo Alto, California. He joins us 0:07:18.760 --> 0:07:21.720 along with Bloomberg business Week nitor Joel Weber, And it's 0:07:21.720 --> 0:07:24.520 about this twenty seven year old who actually, you know, 0:07:24.640 --> 0:07:26.320 living at home with your parents, Joel can be a 0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:30.200 good thing. Yeah, And and Ashley, um, I thought, did 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:34.680 this amazing job explaining about this twenty seven year old 0:07:34.680 --> 0:07:39.720 who became a COVID nineteen data superstar. And actually, why 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:42.119 don't you just take us away here? What's his story 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:46.280 and what's so significant amount? What do you what he's done? Yeah, 0:07:46.640 --> 0:07:48.680 I mean, this is an interesting story that kind of 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:51.640 pulled me back to the early days of the pandemic. 0:07:51.760 --> 0:07:54.640 But there's a data scientist. His name is Yu Yangu 0:07:55.040 --> 0:07:58.280 and like you mentioned, he was twenty six at the time. 0:07:58.320 --> 0:08:00.320 He's twenty seven now. But you know, if you go 0:08:00.440 --> 0:08:05.000 back to March in April, we were getting all these 0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:08.600 these forecasts for how bad COVID might end up being. 0:08:08.720 --> 0:08:11.920 And there was Imperial College in London that was putting 0:08:11.920 --> 0:08:15.120 out a prominent forecast, and h M E which is 0:08:15.160 --> 0:08:19.040 an institute based in Seattle. And these these forecasts were 0:08:19.040 --> 0:08:21.280 all over the place. One group said, you know, the 0:08:21.400 --> 0:08:24.280 US alone might see two million deaths by the summer. 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:27.760 H M said fifty thousand deaths, and the pandemic was 0:08:27.760 --> 0:08:30.040 going to wind down quickly. And so there's this kid, 0:08:30.960 --> 0:08:33.160 all these models and the figures all over the place, 0:08:33.240 --> 0:08:36.960 and he decided to get into forecasting death on his own, 0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:39.480 and he turned out to have pretty much the most 0:08:39.559 --> 0:08:43.960 accurate forecast all the way up through about November. All right, 0:08:44.040 --> 0:08:46.520 So Ashley, how did good do it? What? What were 0:08:46.760 --> 0:08:48.640 his data points? I mean, this is a guy who 0:08:48.760 --> 0:08:53.760 understands algorithms and analytic modelings. Yeah, there's kind of two 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:55.400 things to it. I mean one is he looked at 0:08:55.440 --> 0:08:58.079 the models who were out there and he said, these 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:01.079 even though these people were sessionals and he had no 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:03.599 background in this field at all, he said, you know, 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:05.679 they're putting too many things in their models. So I'm 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:08.000 going to keep mind really simple. I Am just going 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:12.239 to look at the death figures being reported by governments. 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:16.280 And then predict future deaths from that. And then he 0:09:16.960 --> 0:09:21.520 had a skill at machine learning software and basically AI algorithms, 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:24.160 and so he applied that to his figures, that to 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:27.400 constantly tune them over time. When the real death figures 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:29.559 would arrive, he would compare that to his poecast and 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:32.199 so he kept tuning his model. So he kind of 0:09:32.360 --> 0:09:34.719 kept it simple in some ways, but then added this 0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:38.719 new sophistication that some other people were not using. What 0:09:38.920 --> 0:09:43.720 can we learn about modeling here? Considering that there were 0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:46.880 so many professional organizations actually got that that didn't get 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:49.800 this right, but this then twenty six year old was 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:53.440 able to do this much more accurately. Yeah, I mean, 0:09:53.480 --> 0:09:54.960 I guess there are a couple of things I picked 0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:57.880 up from my interviews. You know. One is that I 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:02.160 was surprised that sort of this field wasn't, you know, 0:10:02.800 --> 0:10:06.199 already dialed in, and that there was are like tried 0:10:06.320 --> 0:10:09.079 and true things that we we knew you could go to. 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:11.960 And and so you know, his argument and the argument 0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:14.280 that some other people made to me is that is 0:10:14.320 --> 0:10:17.600 that academics, professors, people at some of these institutes, they 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:21.240 tend to try and make their models more sophisticated and 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:23.800 nuanced by adding complexity because they're kind of trying to 0:10:23.840 --> 0:10:27.400 show off and do something new that their peers aren't doing. 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:29.599 And so, you know, he went the simple route. I 0:10:29.679 --> 0:10:32.240 was like, no, this is this is actually how you 0:10:32.320 --> 0:10:35.000 get closer to the truth. And the other thing is that, 0:10:35.200 --> 0:10:39.319 you know, we've seen over time that the individual models 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:44.199 really do not work as well as taking models together, 0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:47.600 blending them and then looking at what that blended model 0:10:47.679 --> 0:10:50.160 tells you. And so, you know, a big takeaway was 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:53.559 the next time there's a health crisis, you don't want 0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:57.079 to play too much stock. Maybe in these these individual 0:10:57.160 --> 0:10:59.319 models that come out in the first week or two 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:02.439 weeks of a crisis, you hopefully we'd be in a 0:11:02.480 --> 0:11:07.000 better situation where there's there's numerous models right from the 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:08.880 get go that we can kind of blend together and 0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:13.160 get something closer to the truth. So what what's Goog 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:16.480 doing now? And what what does he uh? What does 0:11:16.520 --> 0:11:18.800 he think he'll crack next? It seems like you know 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:21.439 this kind of modeling, Uh, you know, you go work 0:11:21.480 --> 0:11:24.040 at a hedge fund and make billions of dollars? Is that? 0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:27.280 What is that in the store? Well, this was the 0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:29.280 funny I mean it's the interesting part of the story. 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:31.199 I mean, he was, he was in fight it, he 0:11:31.320 --> 0:11:35.280 was doing trading forecast, and then right right when the 0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:37.839 parademics start, right before it started, he had decided to 0:11:38.440 --> 0:11:40.240 do a start up with the buddy. He was going 0:11:40.280 --> 0:11:43.240 to get into sports analytics. He was pretty kg about 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:45.400 telling me exactly what it was. It sounded like some 0:11:45.600 --> 0:11:49.120 sort of like maybe sports betting thing or something like that. 0:11:49.440 --> 0:11:53.400 And then you know, he volunteered his time during these 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:57.720 death forecasts and and has been sucked into the public 0:11:57.920 --> 0:12:01.880 health world. And now he's he's getting recruited by um 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:04.160 all kinds of folks, and I think he's kind of 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:06.160 like changed the course of his life. I think he 0:12:06.200 --> 0:12:08.760 wants to get into public health now. He's he's sort 0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:12.280 of he's kind of averse to all the politics of 0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:14.280 the money that didn't He just wants to be a pure, 0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:17.959 pure data driven guy. Well, but what actually has happened 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:19.680 to his data sets now, because from what I understand 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:23.079 from your story, kind of stopped right yeah, when he 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:28.800 stopped the deaf forecast around October November, because everybody's numbers 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:31.839 started to kind of coalesce around a pretty similar place. Now, 0:12:32.080 --> 0:12:36.320 he's forecasting basically kind of herd immunity. He's looking at 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:40.199 the vaccination rate, the you know, how many people have 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:43.240 actually caught COVID. He thinks a lot more people have 0:12:43.400 --> 0:12:46.600 caught it than than sort of the official numbers reports. 0:12:46.880 --> 0:12:48.920 And so he's trying to model out kind of where 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:51.360 we might end up. And so for the US, you know, 0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:54.040 her immunity is kind of like a sort of a 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:57.640 vague nobody knows exactly what the right number is on that, 0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:00.240 but you know, he has us in the U asked 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:04.320 about six of the population would either have the vaccine 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:08.360 or have already caught um the virus and be approaching 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:12.040 something like her immunity by June. All right, well, time 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:17.079 stamp it. Yeah, it's impressive. Was he living in the 0:13:17.120 --> 0:13:18.880 parents basement? That's what we all We just want to 0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:21.679 know when he did this. Yeah, he was. He was 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:24.160 in Santa Clara's I live out here in Silicon Valley. 0:13:24.160 --> 0:13:26.800 We don't really have basements, but it's definitely a living room, 0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:30.679 like a side room. Um, and yeah, so he was 0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:33.720 staying with his parents during there. In the bulk he's 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:37.160 moved and moved to New York. Well, we look forward 0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:39.679 to see what more on that next chapter. Ashley, Thank 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:42.400 you so much. Ashley Vance features writer Bloomberg Business Week 0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:44.920 on the phone from Palo Alto, along with Joe Webber, 0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:47.240 editor of Bloomberg buses this week on the remote access 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:55.440 from Brooklyn. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser 0:13:55.679 --> 0:14:00.560 and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. All right, 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:02.360 you are listening to Bloomberg Business Week. It's brought to 0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:05.200 you by SEI, with an operating platform designed to support 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:08.880 all major asset classes, diverse strategies, and investment vehicles. SEI 0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:11.599 is redefining wealth management. Learn more at se i C 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:14.720 dot com slash I m s. Well, there are Tim 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:17.040 a couple of provocative columns on China to tell you 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:20.320 about today. One about China's plan for cashless society and 0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:23.440 the goal and implications of such. That's something to come, 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:26.600 and then something that's already here, China's massive and impressive 0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:29.080 infrastructure and how it's really time for the US to 0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:31.560 get worked up about it. I love these columns. Thought 0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:34.320 provoking and let's get into it with Bloomberg New Economy 0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:37.880 Editorial director Andy Brown. He writes about both a he 0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:40.400 is on the phone in our New York City Bureau. Andy. 0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:42.360 I know you're just around the corner, one floor down, 0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:46.160 but we're all socially distancing. Great columns, And I have 0:14:46.280 --> 0:14:49.480 to say, these two stories remind me in many ways 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:52.280 how China is way ahead of the US and the 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:56.880 rest of the world on so much already exactly. I mean, 0:14:57.000 --> 0:15:02.880 these blackouts in Texas illustrate the perless state of US infrastructure. 0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:06.240 And it's it's not just the power grid, it's the 0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:14.800 transportation network. It's highways, it's railways, it's airports, it's telecommunications networks, 0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:17.360 and and and in all these areas, one can't help 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:21.280 but compare and contrust with China, which is which is 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:23.960 streets ahead? I mean, this is this is a national 0:15:24.320 --> 0:15:26.040 This has risen to the level I think of a 0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:29.360 national security threat for the United States. I mean it 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:35.120 goes to the heart of economic competitiveness, military readiness, climate change, resilience, 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:40.200 innovation capacity. Um, you know, you you've got a situation 0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:45.080 now where China has rolled out a five G network 0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:48.360 in America hasn't really got started, and it's giving China 0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:51.400 a jump on all of the industries of the future 0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:57.240 from smart cities, advanced manufacturing, autonomous vehicles, and so on 0:15:57.400 --> 0:15:59.840 and so forth. This is the way to compete with 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:02.920 as Joe Biden is trying to say, is we need 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:05.920 to invest in infrastructure or China is going to come 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:08.800 and eat a lunch. And actually, an area after area, 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:12.480 China has already eaten America's lunch. So what's the way 0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:16.440 to do this? In Washington where at this point many 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:19.560 Republicans will not even acknowledge that there was a free 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:22.720 and fair election that elected Joe Biden. What I'm saying 0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:26.040 is there's not broad agreement across the challenges that America 0:16:26.120 --> 0:16:29.560 faces or perhaps the solutions to those challenges. Well, I 0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:32.480 guess what I'm saying is is the first step is 0:16:32.560 --> 0:16:36.760 to recognize the threat um you know, and and America 0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:41.000 has been here before. You know, back in nineteen fifty seven, 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:45.240 there was this spot Nik moment right where Russia launches 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:49.360 this satellite that you know, that that around around around 0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:54.600 the Earth. And suddenly the Eisenhower administration freaks out and 0:16:54.760 --> 0:16:59.360 realizes that Russia is leaving America behind when it comes 0:16:59.400 --> 0:17:03.200 to space, and he invests, he launches NASA, he makes 0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:08.160 massive investments in science and technology, which ultimately give rise 0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:12.280 to Silicon Valley and spawned the likes of Facebook and Google, 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:15.720 and and and so on. The danger now, as Eric 0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:17.840 Schmidt pointed out in a in a in a piece 0:17:17.960 --> 0:17:20.800 just the other day in the Financial Times, you know, 0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:25.119 is that the next tech giants and the products and 0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:28.840 the services that they produce are not going to be American. 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:32.119 They're going to be Chinese. Right. And of course, Eric Schmidt, 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:34.560 the former chief of Google, andy, you know what, why 0:17:34.640 --> 0:17:39.200 aren't we scared enough as Americans in terms of how 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:42.000 advanced China is getting on a lot of things. And 0:17:42.080 --> 0:17:44.520 they are very clear about their mission, their long term 0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:48.040 planning to be much more advanced on a lot of 0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:52.080 sophisticated areas and industries. It's it's a really good question. 0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:55.400 And and and maybe it's because there wasn't this one 0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:59.639 big dramatic event, like you know, the launch of Spotnik 0:17:59.720 --> 0:18:03.959 that this has really crept up on on America. I mean, 0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:06.359 I lived there for for more than twenty years, and 0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:08.480 and so this happened. I mean, the build out of 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:11.719 their high speed rail network was phenomenal. I mean they 0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:15.120 now have the most extensive high speed network in the world. 0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:16.920 In fact, it's it's longer than the rest of the 0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:19.680 world's network combined. And by the way, it's about to 0:18:19.840 --> 0:18:22.399 double a game by two thousand and and and and 0:18:22.560 --> 0:18:25.960 thirty five. And all of this was accomplished in a decade. 0:18:26.080 --> 0:18:28.000 You know, I mean, Joe Biden was was talking to 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:30.040 senators the other day and was saying, you know, we 0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:33.160 we need to pay attention to to China's railway network. 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:35.160 You know, well, yes, you know. He's He's a guy 0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:38.760 that used to travel every day on a train track, 0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:41.679 Joe between Delaware and Washington, d C. It took him 0:18:41.760 --> 0:18:44.359 ninety minutes. If it sat on a similar lengths Traine, 0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:46.640 it was about a hundred miles hundred miles in China. 0:18:46.680 --> 0:18:48.240 You do that in half the time. You do it 0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:52.080 minutes and and and it works like clockwork. Hey, Andy, 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:54.159 I was in Changhai a couple of years ago with 0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:57.600 graduate school classmates, and we were there on a school 0:18:57.640 --> 0:19:00.919 trip and some classmates of mine went to buy something 0:19:01.040 --> 0:19:03.239 in the mall that was close to our hotel. They 0:19:03.280 --> 0:19:06.480 had cash and credit cards, they couldn't buy something because 0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:09.560 they didn't hadn't downloaded the app that so many people 0:19:09.680 --> 0:19:11.879 in China used to actually pay for something so they 0:19:12.040 --> 0:19:15.680 end up coming back empty handed. What's China doing by 0:19:15.720 --> 0:19:20.639 eliminating cash? Right? So? Well, yeah, exactly. So for a 0:19:20.720 --> 0:19:24.359 long time, basically there was no need uh to carry 0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:26.119 cash at all when I when I would go out 0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:28.080 in Shanghai. I mean, it didn't tell to me to 0:19:28.920 --> 0:19:30.720 get to take notes. I mean you, of course you 0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:33.800 it's everything is swiping your bar code, whatever, whatever it 0:19:33.920 --> 0:19:37.240 is you're you're you're buying. What they're now doing is 0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:41.800 launching and in a digital currency. They're going to do 0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:46.000 away with notes all together. And China invented the banknote, 0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:48.920 by the way, about fifteen hundred years ago. It was 0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:51.399 one of the things that Marco Polo marveled about when 0:19:51.440 --> 0:19:53.600 he traveled to China in the thirteenth century. They're going 0:19:53.680 --> 0:19:55.239 to get rid of notes, are going to get rid 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:59.240 of coins. It's going to be a digital currency. And not, 0:19:59.440 --> 0:20:02.320 by the way, at the bitcoin that that we we've 0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:04.440 been hearing about today. I mean, this is this is 0:20:04.520 --> 0:20:08.720 not your distributed ledger, your anonymous transaction. This is a 0:20:09.040 --> 0:20:12.840 central bank issued currency which is going to give the 0:20:12.920 --> 0:20:19.320 central absolute visibility into every transaction in China, every donation, 0:20:19.960 --> 0:20:23.199 every trade. The state is going to be in your wallet. 0:20:23.280 --> 0:20:25.679 This's this big brother like you've never had it before. 0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:28.960 It's fascinating. And what's interesting is I feel like China 0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:31.680 always wants to be much more part of kind of 0:20:31.960 --> 0:20:34.960 the system, but I feel like this will seclude them potentially. Andy, 0:20:35.000 --> 0:20:37.680 and just got about twenty five seconds. Yeah, they wanted 0:20:37.920 --> 0:20:39.840 they of course, they want to displace the dollar. They 0:20:39.880 --> 0:20:42.000 want to have a global currency. Nobody wants to use 0:20:42.000 --> 0:20:45.119 a digital currency overseas with with with the knowledge that 0:20:45.240 --> 0:20:49.480 the Chinese state has absolute visibility as eyes on it, 0:20:49.600 --> 0:20:51.960 I don't think so. I mean, so it'll work in China, 0:20:52.080 --> 0:20:55.680 but the internationally highly doubtful. It's fascinating. I want to 0:20:55.680 --> 0:20:58.680 do more on this. I love this story, and uh Andy, 0:20:58.760 --> 0:21:01.040 thank you so much. Really appreciate at it. Andy Brown 0:21:01.119 --> 0:21:04.200 he is Bloomberg New Economy Editorial Director. Check out his 0:21:04.400 --> 0:21:06.600 columns on The Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot Com. We 0:21:06.640 --> 0:21:08.880 have to talk more about this one because I think, um, 0:21:09.480 --> 0:21:11.680 that's a big deal. Yeah, it's a huge deal. That 0:21:11.760 --> 0:21:14.879 kind of access by the government is amazing. This is 0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:18.880