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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Action.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing out so respect.

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Speaker 2: They're saying it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 1: That's all we see most gamble is when they go

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Speaker 1: to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Being bank small banks, I like to make money. All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate combine and want to and we

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Speaker 2: are underway.

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Speaker 3: Hello, Hello, no, Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented

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Speaker 3: by DraftKings. I am your host, Evan Abrams, and I

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Speaker 3: am joined by the One, the only, the Man, BA

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Speaker 3: Brandon Anderson. This I'm a little different live from the

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Speaker 3: Dakotas during a blizzard. So if we lose branded at

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Speaker 3: any point, I'm used to doing this, although I did

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Speaker 3: in the past. I'm just gonna keep rolling and our

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Speaker 3: producers just gonna let me know. It's gonna be awesome.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be a fun show. But for our NFL recap,

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Speaker 3: we will discuss everything we saw today during week seventeen

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Speaker 3: plus important we will talk about Week eighteen a bunch

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Speaker 3: during this and the playoffs, so stay tuned. We will

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Speaker 3: also do a little hot read for next week's games.

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Speaker 3: This is gonna be a real fun so, but before

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Speaker 3: we get started, I will get to my stat of

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Speaker 3: the day, which is basically one simple thing. Teams who

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Speaker 3: need to win needed to win facing eliminated teams. Pittsburgh, Tampa, Bay,

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Speaker 3: Detroit all lost outright versus eliminated teams this week. We

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Speaker 3: have no such games in Week eighteen because really there's

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Speaker 3: only two when they face each other Pittsburgh versus Baltimore,

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Speaker 3: Carolina versus Tampa. And here's the other crazy one. So

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Speaker 3: if Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh on that Sunday night game,

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Speaker 3: we will have three teams who are inside the top

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Speaker 3: five in preseason odds missing the playoffs. We will also

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Speaker 3: have two Baltimore and Kansas City, who had eleven win totals.

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Speaker 3: It would be the first time since two thousand where

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Speaker 3: two teams with eleven plus win totals don't make the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: In two thousand, it was Washington and Jacksonville. A very

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Speaker 3: different time. But nonetheless, we're kind of on the cusp

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Speaker 3: of chaos here. And also there is a chance we

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Speaker 3: only have one favorite who was a favorite to win

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Speaker 3: their division actually come through, which would be Philly. That

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Speaker 3: would be the fewest faves to win a division since

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Speaker 3: two thousand and eight. So people have talked about chaos. Well,

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Speaker 3: we are living in chaos right now. I mean, Brandon,

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Speaker 3: take it away. What would you like to discuss before

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Speaker 3: we dive into this.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, of course the year where we get one division

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Speaker 2: favorite winning the division. It's the NFC East champion that

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Speaker 2: hasn't had a repeat winner for a what like two

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Speaker 2: and a half decades or something, So that's chaos, I believe.

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Speaker 2: In the AFC North, it's just Jacksonville winning would be

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Speaker 2: the non favorite there as opposed to Houston and then

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh of course, not Baltimore in the other one. Tampa

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Speaker 2: losing to Carolina, I'm sure would need to see. Well, yes,

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Speaker 2: Seattle as well. So we've got some work to do,

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Speaker 2: but we're kind of riding a high. Like honestly, Christmas games,

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Speaker 2: Saturday games not as bad. Sundays late all kind of

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Speaker 2: terrible if we're being totally honest, and we got to

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Speaker 2: this incredible game tonight that just like the dumb and

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Speaker 2: dumber and totally redeemed yourself, Like I feel like that's

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Speaker 2: kind of what the NFL just did tonight, fellow a

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Speaker 2: playoff game, Like I have to keep reminding myself, No,

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Speaker 2: the Bears aren't out. They're out a one seed now,

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Speaker 2: but they're not out. You know, this is not an

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Speaker 2: elimination game. We're going to see more of this. But

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Speaker 2: it does seem you know, we expanded the schedule. We're

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Speaker 2: in seventeen games now, we got Week eighteen coming. It

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Speaker 2: does seem like this is the downside of the expanded schedule.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna get a lot more next week of what

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Speaker 2: we saw this week, which is a lot of eliminated teams,

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Speaker 2: a lot of now non eliminated teams who are gonna

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Speaker 2: be resting. So be careful early in the week. If

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Speaker 2: you see a line that looks really fishy, like something

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Speaker 2: looks really off, there's a good chance that that looks

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Speaker 2: off for a reason that maybe you don't know yet,

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Speaker 2: and maybe we don't know yet, but sometimes the books know.

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Speaker 2: Sometimes they have more information than us. I'm like, oh,

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Speaker 2: all right, Well, it turns out the Eagles say, decided

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Speaker 2: to rest their starters and treat Week eighteen like a

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Speaker 2: bye week. I don't know, but that's in play, and

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Speaker 2: it's all about like, do you want to get ahead

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Speaker 2: of it and guess the motivation and try to get

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Speaker 2: some CLV you know, like the Bills play the Jets

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Speaker 2: next week. I think there's a chance the Bills could arrest,

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Speaker 2: but I don't know if the Jets can win anyway,

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Speaker 2: So like I kind of want to do a Jets

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Speaker 2: money line on the possibility of that. But you get

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Speaker 2: all these wonky setups and lines. Sometimes in Week eighteen,

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Speaker 2: in the final week, lines might move like a full

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Speaker 2: touchdown when we start to get some of the names

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Speaker 2: that come out there missing, and we are set up

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Speaker 2: to have a lot of those games this coming week,

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Speaker 2: so that either means be aggressive if you we want

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Speaker 2: to take some chances, or be very cautious and wait

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Speaker 2: for news to come out it if if a line

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Speaker 2: looks wrong or that there's something you don't know, probably

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Speaker 2: that's the case this week. There probably is something that

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Speaker 2: we don't know. So it is crazy out here. We

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Speaker 2: effectively have the playoff field set, like we need to

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Speaker 2: know who wins the two divisions that don't really matter,

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Speaker 2: but even the seating. We'll get to kind of a

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Speaker 2: playoff reset later, but much of the seating is mostly

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Speaker 2: set now too, at least down to kind of a

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Speaker 2: few multiple choices in a couple of spots. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: where we kind of we're we're here, like we're on

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Speaker 2: the cusp of the playoffs now. I feel like this

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Speaker 2: result now tonight kind of got us the spot where

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Speaker 2: we can really start to see. Okay, all these favorites

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Speaker 2: before the season are out or or seemingly out. Now

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Speaker 2: we've got a new bracket. What happens now, we're kind

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Speaker 2: of we made it.

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Speaker 3: We did make it. And one thing I will add,

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Speaker 3: so when you have those teams who will be sitting

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Speaker 3: their players, you also will be most likely going against

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Speaker 3: a team who technically wants to lose, which is kind

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Speaker 3: of what you saw with the Raiders today, which this

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Speaker 3: whole week Week eighteen is chaos. But let's dive into

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Speaker 3: the slates. So San Francisco wins forty two to thirty eight.

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Speaker 3: They cover every single number except according to our Action

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Speaker 3: Labs and Action Network, they did close minus four and

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Speaker 3: a half last seconds, so if you waited, you could

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Speaker 3: have covered Chicago, but last seconds went to four and

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Speaker 3: a half. Almost every other number San Francisco does cover.

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Speaker 3: The total obviously goes over fifty one and a half.

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Speaker 3: I really don't need to talk about that much, but

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Speaker 3: I will say this, So game starts. Chicago picked six

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Speaker 3: first fifteen seconds into the game on a drop deflection.

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Speaker 3: From there, it was just absolute chaos. Kind of a

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Speaker 3: similar situation to what we saw was San Francisco and

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Speaker 3: India last week, except on the other side of San

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Speaker 3: Francisco there was a little more competency versus Philip Rivers.

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Speaker 3: Now this side. Caleb Williams did his job almost the

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Speaker 3: entire game, just to recap kind of the over under

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Speaker 3: margin and what we did here. Since two thousand and five,

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Speaker 3: we've had one hundred and eighty seven night games with

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Speaker 3: a total of fifty plus. This was just the fourth

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Speaker 3: to go over by twenty eight plus points. It was

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Speaker 3: just an absolute damn classic. I mean, we started with

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Speaker 3: a thirty four yard pick six, a thirty five yard

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Speaker 3: touchdown to Burton, a thirty six yard touchdown to Loveland,

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Speaker 3: Like we kept upping ourselves as the game continued, and

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Speaker 3: then what a gorgeous drop step back side step touchdown

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Speaker 3: by Purty over on the left side of the end

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Speaker 3: zone to Juice Check. It was we really got everything

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Speaker 3: we could ask for at the end of this game,

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Speaker 3: and we even got almost the Bears comeback on the

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Speaker 3: goal line. It was just really the most amazing, like

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Speaker 3: really maybe game of the year other than everyone tends

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Speaker 3: to forget. Buffalo and Baltimore in Week one was also

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Speaker 3: absolute nuts and chaos. But what's your takeaway here? I mean,

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Speaker 3: because for me it's not much like this is kind

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Speaker 3: of how I felt about both these teams, the defenses

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Speaker 3: where zippo it didn't really arrive, but kind of tough.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it was an awesome game. I think

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Speaker 2: they said on the broadcast, this is the first NFL

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Speaker 2: game in history that was tied seven to seven, then

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Speaker 2: fourteen fourteen, and then twenty one, twenty one, twenty eight,

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Speaker 2: twenty eight, thirty five, thirty five, and then the Bears

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Speaker 2: drive dead. They finally go to stop, they drive down,

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Speaker 2: they settle for a field goal, and I wrote in

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Speaker 2: my notes South for the field goal, it feels like

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Speaker 2: you just lost the game, Like that's the sort of

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Speaker 2: game this was where it's like, oh, you just took

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Speaker 2: the lead, I think for maybe the first or no,

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Speaker 2: not the first time, because they had, of course the

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Speaker 2: pick six, but it felt like, oh, you're up three

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Speaker 2: with five minutes left. You lost And then Jennings catches

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Speaker 2: a long touchdown and I turned to my sister and say, oh,

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Speaker 2: I think the Niners just lost. They score two fast,

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Speaker 2: there's two minute warning and three time outs left, and

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Speaker 2: sure enough the Bears get down on like the twelve

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Speaker 2: and have what twenty six seconds left and still had

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Speaker 2: multiple chances to get in as well. So it truly

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Speaker 2: was last team to have the ball is going to

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Speaker 2: have the chance. They said it on TV as well.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you feel better to be the team with the

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Speaker 2: ball down four in the spot than the defense on

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Speaker 2: the field, And I think both teams would feel that way.

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Speaker 2: Which now going forward, that's who these teams are, and

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Speaker 2: that's who these teams have been. Is the Niners we

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Speaker 2: just watched twice in six days, score anytime they feel

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Speaker 2: like on not great defenses, but very clearly brock Purty

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Speaker 2: finally is healthy. Now they're finally getting right. That offense

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Speaker 2: can put up some big numbers on you. I will say,

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Speaker 2: not just the pick six on that first play, Trent

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Speaker 2: Williams gets hurt. I assume trying to chase down someone.

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Speaker 2: Maybe that's a huge loss if he's out at all.

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Speaker 2: He missed this whole game, and it didn't really feel

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Speaker 2: the loss against the Bears, but against Seattle next week

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Speaker 2: that would be a big one. So can they get

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Speaker 2: him back that game? Does he miss it, but they

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Speaker 2: could still get the one seed, and then he gets

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Speaker 2: like three weeks off, that would be huge. Trent Williams

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Speaker 2: still as awesome as any blocker. The splits with him

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Speaker 2: on off the field are massive for them. So that's

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Speaker 2: a huge one. But really, both of these teams are

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Speaker 2: going to have to win this version of a game

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Speaker 2: against real teams in the playoffs, and that's the problem.

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Speaker 2: Fun for us as fans, fun for us as neutrals.

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Speaker 2: But you know, I think the Bears have earned our

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Speaker 2: trust enough now to say, Okay, they can hang thirty

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Speaker 2: eight on you. They might have hung forty five on

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Speaker 2: one more play. I could have sworn we get a

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Speaker 2: defensive hold or something when the quarterback holds the ball

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Speaker 2: that long. I didn't see you one, but I just

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Speaker 2: assumed when you're scrambling as long as kill Williams did,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna get a penalty or some other second chance.

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Speaker 2: Didn't happen. But we're gonna have two teams here that

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Speaker 2: are awesome, fun to watch, offenses that can score on anyone,

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Speaker 2: even the top top defenses like Seattle, I think, but

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Speaker 2: can they make a stop, can they actually put a

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Speaker 2: game away? Will it ever feel safe? I don't think so,

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Speaker 2: And so it makes them both in play, but it

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Speaker 2: makes them both vulnerable. And for me, I was already

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Speaker 2: a winner on Bears Island coming into the game. We'll

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Speaker 2: get a Saturday in a while, but Bears clinched the

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Speaker 2: division already with the Packers loss. So I looked in

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Speaker 2: my Action Network app. Here are the first four bets

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Speaker 2: I made this season. And I say this because I

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Speaker 2: can't imagine how these couple days could have gone any better.

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Speaker 2: To line up for my bets, I made two super

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Speaker 2: bets back in February, the Niners at twenty to one

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Speaker 2: and the Seahawks at seventy to one. Those teams now

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Speaker 2: play each other for the one seed, so I have

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Speaker 2: a one seed ticket, and of course the other one's

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Speaker 2: not out either. And then Bear's division plus five to

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Speaker 2: fifty Bears Island double down plus thirteen hundred that cash

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Speaker 2: is already so Bear's winning, but then losing tonight was

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Speaker 2: kind of the ideal outcome for me. And of course,

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Speaker 2: you know, living in Chicago, Land and all my Bear's friends,

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Speaker 2: and then between all that staff were fifty to one.

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Speaker 2: Not ideal for that. I think the Rams I believe,

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Speaker 2: are locked out of the one seed now with this result,

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Speaker 2: but looked unlikely anyways, still in play. Be nice if

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Speaker 2: Drake made and throw a thousand touchdowns on the Jets

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Speaker 2: every day. We're not going to talk about that game

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Speaker 2: much tonight, but yeah, I good setup for my futures

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Speaker 2: tickets going forward. What does this mean for these teams?

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Speaker 2: Very simple? Niners play for the one seed now, Niners Seahawks.

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Speaker 2: If they lose, I think they still drop to the

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Speaker 2: six seed, and if they drop to the sixth seed,

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Speaker 2: we might get this game again. Niners six seed, Bears

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Speaker 2: three seed because the Bears are the two seed if

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Speaker 2: they either win or the Eagles lose. But if the

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Speaker 2: Eagles win and the Bears lose, then the Bears can

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Speaker 2: still drop to the three seed and possibly give us

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Speaker 2: a three to six matchup with the forty nine Ers.

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Speaker 2: So as high as these teams both feel right now,

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Speaker 2: there's a chance we might just get this matchup again.

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Speaker 2: But in Chicago a couple weeks from now, and I

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Speaker 2: can't say I would hate that. That would be a

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Speaker 2: lot of fun to watch these teams play again, Caleb

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Speaker 2: and Brock were Ballington, I just incredible throws, awesome, awesome

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Speaker 2: to watch in a really fun game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think it's just going to be

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Speaker 3: how awesome it is to watch both those quarterbacks into

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Speaker 3: the playoffs as well. The question mark on both sides

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Speaker 3: will be the defense. Obviously, a lot of injuries on

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Speaker 3: San Francisco's side that is impacting kind of how they're playing,

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Speaker 3: especially Warner, etc. Et cetera, Bosa, so that is impacting

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Speaker 3: how they're playing. You mentioned the MVP market, so Stafford

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Speaker 3: about minus two to fifty with Drake May two to one.

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Speaker 3: Interesting enough, so the Rams can't win the division now.

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Speaker 3: Obviously a wild card been a little bit since we've

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Speaker 3: seen a wild card MVP winner, which I believe was

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Speaker 3: Russ in twenty seventeen and then ap before that, so

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Speaker 3: it is a little rare. But right now we're on target,

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Speaker 3: so we will see how that goes. Obviously, one week

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Speaker 3: left to go in the regular season and you've got

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Speaker 3: the Rams playing tomorrow night on Monday Night Football, so

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Speaker 3: an opportunity to show the nation a little bit there

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Speaker 3: anything else before we move on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll get to Monday night preview and picks in Alisle.

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Speaker 2: So stafford ywh one more chance to go do maybe

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Speaker 2: what Drake Mayis did and play a beleaguer defense and

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Speaker 2: hang a big crooked number on them. Kind of lean

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Speaker 2: a different direction on that one. So there's a little

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Speaker 2: teas there for a Monday night premio to come in

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Speaker 2: a few minutes.

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Speaker 3: There you go, all right, Philly Buffalo. It is a

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Speaker 3: shocking thing to go from that game to this game,

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Speaker 3: which is what we did. But Philly wins the game

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Speaker 3: thirteen to twelve, covers plus three on the road on

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Speaker 3: the closed total under forty five. Storyline's pretty simple, and

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Speaker 3: it feels like it's the same every week. Another terrible

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Speaker 3: Buffalo first half and another terrible Philly second half. I mean,

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Speaker 3: Buffalo is now four and twelve first half ats this year,

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Speaker 3: tied with the Saints to the worst mark in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: And to me, this is the worst one just based

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Speaker 3: off of the market perception of Buffalo. Buffalo is now

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Speaker 3: three and eleven first half ats in games they were favored.

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Speaker 3: That's the worst mark for any team since two thousand

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Speaker 3: and five. So we rarely rarely see a team, you know,

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Speaker 3: with market perception like this, like Buffalo is because of

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Speaker 3: Josh and just coming out flat game after game. The

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Speaker 3: other thing is Buffalo, it tends to come back. Buffalo

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Speaker 3: is now eleven and five second half ats and they

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Speaker 3: almost did the full thing. But again, if you watch

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Speaker 3: the game, they went for two and didn't really get there.

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Speaker 3: It was a short pass into the end zone. Questionable

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Speaker 3: whether you go for two there or not. I mean,

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Speaker 3: look like McDermott the entire time was putting up the

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Speaker 3: douce sign, So that was the play they wanted to make.

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Speaker 3: We know the math behind being that close to the

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Speaker 3: end zone and the two point conversion. All sorts of

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Speaker 3: things go involved in that. But to me, that's the

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Speaker 3: storyline here. I mean, other than Hurts going over seven

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Speaker 3: passing in the second half second time this year with

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Speaker 3: no second half completions and winning the game. It feels

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Speaker 3: like we know what these two teams look like like.

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Speaker 3: Philly's offense rarely looks good unless they're playing what Washington

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Speaker 3: or someone of that nature, and Buffalo's defense, especially the

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Speaker 3: rush defense, have been historically bad and really didn't take

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Speaker 3: advantage of it at all in this game. From Philly's standpoint.

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Speaker 3: But I guess I'll ask you, have you learned anything

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Speaker 3: new about these two teams when they're about to embark

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Speaker 3: on this playoff journey.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not sure that we have in a bad way.

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Speaker 2: Like I think what you just said it encapsulates how

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Speaker 2: I feel, which is I wasn't really high on either

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Speaker 2: one of these teams. So maybe one of them could

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Speaker 2: step forward and show me against the other team's good unit,

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Speaker 2: can you do something about it? And then we didn't

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Speaker 2: see that. Like, Yeah, the Eagles finished with one hundred

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Speaker 2: and ninety yards in this game on a Bill's defense

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Speaker 2: that is not good. Like it's just not good, not

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Speaker 2: even average right now, Eagles at eleven first downs, three

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Speaker 2: and a half yards of play, three point two yards

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Speaker 2: per rush, eighty two rushing yards. This is a Buffalo

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Speaker 2: Bill defense that the last like four years of Eagles

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Speaker 2: teams would have run fifty times for two hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty yards, and they ran for eighty two yards today.

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Speaker 2: That is a giant red flag. Philadelphia made the red

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Speaker 2: zone two times. They lost the time of possession by

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Speaker 2: over ten minutes to Buffalo again, another red flag. Philadelphia

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Speaker 2: had a thirty percent success rate thirty percent, that is

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Speaker 2: fourth percentile. That is awful, and it's awful against a

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Speaker 2: defense that is very beatable Philadelphia in the second half

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Speaker 2: eighteen plays sixteen yards under a yard per play for

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Speaker 2: an entire half of football. And look, we've seen that,

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Speaker 2: like you said, in other games this year, but in

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Speaker 2: other games are at least up like twenty one nothing

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Speaker 2: or something like the Dallas game which they lost as well.

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Speaker 2: Somehow they come up with a win. Obviously, the Bills

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Speaker 2: get two touchdowns late, their only offense of the game scoring,

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Speaker 2: but they ended up with three unre and thirty one yards.

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Speaker 2: They had other opportunities. They doubled up almost on first downs.

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Speaker 2: The Bills had a better offensive game, especially considering the

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Speaker 2: Eagles defense is actually really good. So pretty good performance

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Speaker 2: for Buffalo overall. But they made some mistakes, and of

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Speaker 2: course among them, you missed the extra point on the

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Speaker 2: first touchdown. Then you do go for a look questioning

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Speaker 2: about why to go for two. Honestly, Buffalo's path to

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Speaker 2: winning the division and improving its seating was pretty low.

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Speaker 2: I think they just wanted the game to be over.

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Speaker 2: I think they just wanted to go try to get

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Speaker 2: the win. I know Philly's offense is doing nothing, isn't

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Speaker 2: you just Josh is already hurt playing through a foot injury.

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Speaker 2: Go play for the win. If you get it, great,

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Speaker 2: If not, they're kind of playing for nothing now next

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Speaker 2: week in all likelihood, so they can probably let Josh

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Speaker 2: rest and a loss is not necessarily tearable thing. From

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Speaker 2: that perspective, Alan, I thought, played kind of like old

365
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Speaker 2: Josh Allen in this game, not last year MVP old

366
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Speaker 2: before that, like the superman trying to be MVP. He

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Speaker 2: lost to fumble early, led to a short field touchdown

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Speaker 2: that matters when it's thirteen to twelve, Like that's the

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Speaker 2: only touchdown Philly came up with. He got stuffed on

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Speaker 2: a fourth down trying to get into the end zone.

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Speaker 2: Turnover and downs. He had multiple sacks in this game,

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Speaker 2: five sacks, very rare. Josh Allen does not take sacks.

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Speaker 2: Sack a quarterback stat. Alan tried to do too much

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Speaker 2: and kept plays alive. He sacked him out of field

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Speaker 2: goal position on one time. Again you lost by one,

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Speaker 2: and then of course the final play he missed the

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Speaker 2: two point conversion. That's the throw. His guy's open. He

378
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Speaker 2: can make that throw. He's gonna make that throw nine

379
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Speaker 2: times out of ten he missed it. So yeah, for Buffalo,

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Speaker 2: too much Alan not being good enough and too many

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Speaker 2: mistakes there. And then I think, too, you just really

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Speaker 2: see not a lot of weapons for Buffalo, Brandon Cooks

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Speaker 2: is the guy making the big receptions. Brandon Cooks. We

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Speaker 2: love a Brandon, but you're out here making like fifty

385
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Speaker 2: yard catch. I'm like, I forgot you're on the roster.

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Speaker 2: This is your star receiver down the field, it's Cooks.

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Speaker 2: I love Khalil Shakir six for thirty five, but like,

388
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Speaker 2: that's your security blanket, that's your checkdown guy. No Dalkon Kinkaid,

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Speaker 2: they miss him. Tyrrell Shavers, he's the second receiver. It's

390
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Speaker 2: Cooks and Tyrell Shavers. Like there are not enough weapons

391
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Speaker 2: out there. And when they couldn't run the ball because

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Speaker 2: Philadelphia's run defense is good, they're just wasn't enough else

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Speaker 2: there to give them optionality. So I mentioned the loss

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Speaker 2: not being terrible for them. So here's the upside is

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Speaker 2: maybe you rest, maybe Josh gets the day off, and

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Speaker 2: that's a good thing. The downside is assuming Denver and

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville win next week, which they probably should their heavy favorites.

398
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Speaker 2: Buffalo is almost definitely locked out of the five seed,

399
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Speaker 2: which means five was what you wanted. Five plays the

400
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Speaker 2: AFC North. I know Baltimore feels scary, but you want

401
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Speaker 2: to play Baltimore Pittsburgh. You just want that matchup going

402
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Speaker 2: on the road. Instead, they probably can't get the five seed.

403
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,439
Speaker 2: They're likely going to end up the sixth seed in Jacksonville,

404
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Speaker 2: which is a much much harder game for Buffalo, and

405
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Speaker 2: that to me, that's the cost of this one, is

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Speaker 2: you sacrificed losing the game, kind of going fifty to

407
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Speaker 2: fifty on that two pointer, and you probably got yourself

408
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 2: a much harder path now in the playoffs where they

409
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Speaker 2: were set up pretty well before they do get some

410
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Speaker 2: rest for Josh, maybe that's enough to change things, but

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Speaker 2: I don't know. I come away really on this game

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Speaker 2: feeling worse about my life because it was not a

413
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Speaker 2: fun afternoon of football, but feeling worse about both teams

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Speaker 2: Like these are you mentioned at the top. All the

415
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Speaker 2: favorites are not in the playoffs anymore, they're out totally

416
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Speaker 2: except these two teams, really, right, Buffalo and Philly, these

417
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Speaker 2: are the other two favorites that I feel like we're

418
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Speaker 2: defaulting ourselves into, like, well, Kansas City is out, Baltimore

419
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Speaker 2: is maybe out, Detroit is out. Maybe it's Josh this year.

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Speaker 2: Maybe it's just Philly again. I don't think so. Like

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Speaker 2: the default answer is not the right answer. These teams

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Speaker 2: are not super Bowl teams right now, and they played

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Speaker 2: a not super Bowl game today like this was in

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Speaker 2: March madness terms. This was like an eight versus nine

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Speaker 2: first round game where it's like, Okay, that was fun,

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Speaker 2: but one of you is gonna have to play like

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Speaker 2: a real team at some point. I don't see this

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Speaker 2: going very well. I just don't see either of these

429
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Speaker 2: teams built to win four games right now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but both of them will have to face a

431
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Speaker 3: one seed with no experience, And I think that's what

432
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 3: everyone kind of keeps falling back on, which is these

433
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,440
Speaker 3: two teams have been through the gauntlet. The other teams

434
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 3: have not. The other quarterbacks have not. So I think

435
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:12,919
Speaker 3: that's where the playoff intrigue kind of comes, which is,

436
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 3: no matter what Buffalo puts out there, And I think

437
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 3: that's another reason why resting Josh first of all, not

438
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:22,199
Speaker 3: playing more time in the game, not going to overtime,

439
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 3: and then right now you're laying eleven and a half

440
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 3: against the Jets next week. Like, I just don't necessarily

441
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 3: think that is the correct move to put him out

442
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 3: there with so much to go and so many road

443
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,119
Speaker 3: games to go, given what your path looks like. So

444
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:41,439
Speaker 3: I just don't think it really makes sense. So I

445
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 3: would be kind of shocked for McDermott to put Josh

446
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,680
Speaker 3: out there for a bunch of drives and really try

447
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 3: to win that game. And even if they sit Josh,

448
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 3: I don't necessarily think the Jets could put together a

449
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 3: winning either way. That's why Week eighteen is just such

450
00:22:55,240 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 3: a cluster. The one thing with Philly their offense is

451
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 3: continually just gross. But it just doesn't matter. And that's

452
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 3: what's really difficult. Like when we see bad offenses, we

453
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 3: say to each other, Okay, it's the Achilles heel. It's

454
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 3: the reason they lose games. This is their third game

455
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 3: this year with under two hundred and fifty yards. They're

456
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 3: three to zero in those games. The rest of the

457
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 3: NFL is eighteen and sixty four. Like, for some reason,

458
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 3: they just keep turning around and winning games they shouldn't.

459
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 3: In the oddest of ways, and yes, their defense continues

460
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,439
Speaker 3: to step up, but they just can't put together a

461
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 3: full game. So I mean, maybe we'll be sitting here

462
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 3: in the Super Bowl and it'll be thirteen nothing Philadelphia

463
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 3: at the half or something like that, and we're just

464
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 3: gonna have to accept that this is the year that

465
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 3: Philly's having and no one else can beat them. But

466
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 3: to me, I would still be shocked for that to happen.

467
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 3: I just can't see this being sustained. But I guess

468
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 3: we will see.

469
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean that's the sort of thing both you

470
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 2: and I and any other analyst out there finds ourselves saying,

471
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 2: it's the thing we've said for the last two months

472
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 2: about the chiefs. Different version of the thing where it's like, well,

473
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 2: I don't know, all the underlying stuff is kind of

474
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 2: still checking out. They still have mahomes, they still have

475
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:10,159
Speaker 2: the thing. Maybe it'll just all click when, like we

476
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,360
Speaker 2: do this with teams every year, there's a couple teams

477
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 2: where it's like, well, maybe it'll all finally line up,

478
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 2: and I just there's no empirical reason to believe it's

479
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:21,439
Speaker 2: all gonna line up. There's there's no like magical switch

480
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 2: that the super Bowl team is coming back. They can't

481
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 2: run the ball, they're not blocking as well. This year

482
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,640
Speaker 2: they are gonna hopefully get Lane Johnson back at some point,

483
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,479
Speaker 2: so that is a pretty dramatic swing for them, of course,

484
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 2: but it is a Super Bowl defense. Josh Allen, I believe,

485
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 2: is a Super Bowl quarterback. So that in a year

486
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 2: that's open, where there's not a clear favorite, it's easy

487
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 2: to talk ourselves into Okay, well, we've seen Philadelphia spine.

488
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 2: We know they have the stars offensively, we know that's

489
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 2: the defense buffalo, we know they have Josh Allen, the

490
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 2: wide open AFC. It's easy version to sell ourselves on.

491
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 2: The problem from especially a futures standpoint, is those things

492
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 2: are being priced into the market, like these teams are

493
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,199
Speaker 2: being overpriced in the future as market, and so I

494
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 2: just there's no world where I can be investing future

495
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,479
Speaker 2: as wise and either one of these teams, because we

496
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:14,639
Speaker 2: are paying for past results and I need future results

497
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 2: and I don't see it coming for these teams.

498
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 3: And speaking of next week, because I feel like it

499
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,640
Speaker 3: is important to look forward a little bit, Philly right

500
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 3: now is laying seven and a half against Washington. Washington,

501
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 3: no matter what the situation looks like looks like a

502
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 3: team under Dan Quinn that is fighting week to week.

503
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 3: Like there is no reason, even if it's Josh Johnson

504
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 3: not to think that Washington's not gonna put McLaurin, Deebo,

505
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 3: Chris Rodriguez will be back most likely, like they're all

506
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 3: going to be out there fighting. So depending on what

507
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 3: you think about Philadelphia, it's an intriguing thing to look

508
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,400
Speaker 3: at because I don't even know if you know Philadelphia

509
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,360
Speaker 3: at full strength. Even though they did just blow them

510
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 3: out a week or two ago, it was still relatively

511
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:57,119
Speaker 3: close at points, So I don't know, but it seems

512
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 3: like a little bit of a heavy line. Maybe it

513
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 3: should be under that mark, but we have to see

514
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 3: who plays. Agreed, All right, let's keep going here, Pittsburgh Cleveland.

515
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 3: So Cleveland wins the game thirteen to six, covers plus

516
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,359
Speaker 3: three and a half on the clothes at home, total

517
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 3: under thirty four and a half. I will start off

518
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 3: this with a quote from Miles Garrett in postgame, which is,

519
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 3: to an extent, they were more worried about keeping me

520
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 3: away from Aaron than getting the win. That's what came

521
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 3: back to bite them. I mean, watching this entire game,

522
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:32,160
Speaker 3: it felt like Aaron Rodgers was playing two games. Game one,

523
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 3: not get it sacked by Miles Garrett, Game two attempt

524
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 3: to try to win the division. Like there was so

525
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 3: many times where he was making poor throws, bad passes,

526
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 3: like all different types of even like weird things in

527
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,399
Speaker 3: the pocket, which was throwing his motion off in an

528
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 3: attempt to try to avoid Miles. Maybe I'm crazy, and

529
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 3: I've heard other people out there basically disagree with my point,

530
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 3: but in watching the game, it's kind of what I

531
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 3: felt like most of the time, and Pittsburgh had a

532
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 3: number of different opportunities. Schador threw a I believe a

533
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:07,880
Speaker 3: pick or two that was pretty misguided that gave them

534
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 3: some of those opportunities. It was a bad weather ish game,

535
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 3: there was some wind, But to me, this was an

536
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 3: opportunity for Pittsburgh that I think they're gonna regret now.

537
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 3: Right now. I believe they are plus three at home

538
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:26,160
Speaker 3: against Baltimore next week. Yeah, plus three right now, total

539
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,640
Speaker 3: of forty two and a half. But to me, this

540
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 3: game was all about no DK Metcalf, and next week

541
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 3: there is no DK Metcalf. Aaron Rodgers had one hundred

542
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 3: and sixty eight pass yards on thirty nine pass attempts.

543
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 3: In Rogers' entire career, he's at eighty three starts with

544
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,640
Speaker 3: thirty nine pass attempts or more. This is his fewest

545
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 3: passing yards than any of those games. Ten plus yards downfield.

546
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 3: Today he was three of fifteen passing like no. Dk

547
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 3: Metcalf completely changed the way they have offense and it's

548
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 3: not gonna change next week against Baltimore and that that,

549
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 3: to me, is the biggest storyline going into that game.

550
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, just really a classic Steelers letdown spot. Like we

551
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:11,400
Speaker 2: talk about how they clear five hundred every year. Tomlin

552
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 2: loses this exact game every year, Like every single year

553
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 2: they play some garbage team that has no business being

554
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 2: in it. And we get end of the first quarter,

555
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 2: Browns up ten nothing, and it kind of felt like

556
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 2: it was over already, like we already knew the Steelers

557
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 2: are not gonna be scoring a lot of points in

558
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 2: this one. Somehow in the fourth quarter we got ten drives,

559
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 2: ten drives in the fourth quarter, we get a miss

560
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 2: field goal by the Steelers, then drives of two plays

561
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 2: four four, three, three, four and four. I don't know

562
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 2: if you know this, but every drive is three plays

563
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 2: unless you mess it up, So that's how that's going.

564
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 2: Then we get eight plays turnover and downs and then

565
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 2: a one play kneel down of course coming down to

566
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 2: the stretch and Rogers had a shot and just can't

567
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 2: find anyone in the end zone. Neither team hit three

568
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 2: hundred yards combined, seven of thirty on a third and

569
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 2: fourth downs for this game, all of three in the

570
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 2: red zone combined, and just a terrible game. And yeah,

571
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 2: I hadn't heard that quote. I literally have in my

572
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 2: notes in bold. Rogers played this entire game like his

573
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 2: only goal was no Miles Garrett record. That's what I

574
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 2: saw watching this game. And that's what the numbers look like.

575
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 2: Negative nine completion, never expected, negative a third EPA per

576
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 2: play like his numbers. He got outplayed by Shooter Sanders

577
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 2: in this game. That's that's what happened in this game.

578
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 2: Just now costly lost for them obviously because they gotta

579
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 2: go play Baltimore just to get in now. Darnell Washington

580
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,719
Speaker 2: also broke an arm. That's a huge, dude, quite literally

581
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 2: a big loss for them because again, like you said,

582
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 2: no DK metcalf, So we're running out of options of

583
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 2: who we're going to throw the ball to and uh yeah,

584
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 2: we talked all year, you and I did about who's

585
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 2: the Sunday night game. This division was always one we

586
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 2: had our eye on for it. And we're starting next

587
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 2: weekend with Box Panthers. We'll talk about them shortly, but

588
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 2: then ending with this one. The question for me and

589
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 2: we're here's here's there's a little preview for you. We're

590
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 2: gonna come back to this one Steelers Ravens. In the

591
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 2: hot reads, you can probably already guess which direction I'm going.

592
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:11,479
Speaker 2: The big question is this the Steelers Ravens regular season

593
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 2: game because it is? Or is this a playoff game?

594
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 2: Because it kind of is that tooke. Tomlin has lost

595
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 2: five straight playoff games, six actually, but five to one

596
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 2: and Dons, and the defense has allowed thirty nine points

597
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 2: a game in those games. Their lost four losses by

598
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 2: double ditch and including the most recent one by fourteen

599
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 2: to Baltimore. So which game are we getting? Are we

600
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 2: getting classic Tomlin Harbaugh maybe for the last time if

601
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 2: it goes sideways for one of these guys, or are

602
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 2: we getting Tomlin playoff game? We're gonna make that decision

603
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 2: because those are very different game results, and I am

604
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 2: tenuously making my early decision when we get to the

605
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 2: hot raid at the end of this podcast tonight.

606
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, loser leaves home, maybe for the coaches and the

607
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:59,959
Speaker 3: starting quarterbacks. So it'll be interesting if we'll see if

608
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 3: Lamar plays. I believe they are gearing towards that or

609
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 3: trying to tell us that is most likely in the

610
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 3: cards this week.

611
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 2: So certainly, with Baltimore favored by three on the road,

612
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 2: it is certainly indication that Lamar would be expected to play.

613
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 3: I think they're expecting it, and I think going back

614
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 3: to just Pittsburgh and Cleveland for a second, Cleveland has

615
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 3: also just been kind of a thorn in Pittsburgh's side,

616
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 3: especially when it comes to these games where Pittsburgh has

617
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 3: the better record or Pittsburgh's in Cleveland. I mean, Cleveland's

618
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 3: now won six of seven home games against the Steelers,

619
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 3: six of their last seven, they've covered their last four.

620
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 3: And here's the one that actually blows me away. When

621
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh has a better record than Cleveland under Tomlin, they're

622
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 3: seventeen and one at home, they're five and seven on

623
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 3: the road. That basically tells you everything you need to know.

624
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 3: About the troubles they've had in Cleveland, and it was

625
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 3: all over the board today. Their game plan was pretty

626
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 3: much crap, Like their offense just didn't show up. And

627
00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 3: with outj over the last three or four games, their

628
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 3: defense has been pretty decent. It was the offense with

629
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 3: Aaron that just didn't show up in this game. And

630
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 3: they knew Metcalf wasn't going to be there most of

631
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 3: the week, and the game plan just didn't look right.

632
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 3: And we've said great things all season about Warren and

633
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 3: gainwell as a combo, they've they've done a pretty damn

634
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 3: good job for Pittsburgh. It's been the past game and

635
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 3: today I kind of have to put this one on Aaron,

636
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 3: So then that's what I say. And at least maybe

637
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 3: it's a bounce back spot where he tries to have

638
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 3: a better game against Baltimore, which can be beat downfield

639
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 3: way more than Cleveland can and has less of a

640
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 3: pass rush, and you know, it might be an easier

641
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 3: game from him but for him. But either way, just

642
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:41,320
Speaker 3: a bad showing in my opinion.

643
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was trying to find I don't have the

644
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 2: exact numbers on this, but Ben solak Over at ESPN

645
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 2: had tweeted out, I believe you with Miles Garrett. I

646
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 2: believe Miles Garrett was chipped, meaning that they sent like

647
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 2: an extra blocker to keep him off almost fifty percent

648
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 2: of the time, which was like top ten highest for

649
00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 2: a player in the season, and then when he wasn't chipped,

650
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 2: they ran the play to the other side of the

651
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 2: field like two thirds or three fourth at the time.

652
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 2: So very clearly mister Rogers got into the head of

653
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 2: Arthur Smith and some of the play calling audibles. I

654
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 2: don't know, but like we're not making this is not

655
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 2: a fake narrative that this was a game plan to

656
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 2: not have Aaron Rodgers be the new Brett FIV. Brett

657
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 2: Favre falling down into Michael Strahan is seared into all

658
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 2: of our memories of that broken record. Aaron Rodgers was

659
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,719
Speaker 2: gonna make sure this was not happening for him, and

660
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 2: it really seemed like that affected the game plan. Today.

661
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 2: You can't do that in a game. You gotta win

662
00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 2: in a game against what's been a really, really good

663
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 2: defense this year. So that there are real numbers backing

664
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 2: up the things we're talking about.

665
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:44,239
Speaker 3: And there's a difference to me between Miles Garrett has

666
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 3: been a game wrecker against Pittsburgh and ruined lots of

667
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 3: their games. Let's try to game plan to avoid that

668
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 3: from happening. And then everything we saw today because it

669
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 3: just felt like they everything was altered even mid play,

670
00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 3: like that just shouldn't be the case. Like if pre

671
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 3: snap you want to try to set up protection to

672
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 3: give him, you know, more issues getting to the quarterback,

673
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 3: completely understood, But once you're near him or something is going,

674
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 3: I'd rather you go down than make a mistake. And

675
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,920
Speaker 3: there was just some odd plays. So that's all I

676
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 3: have here. You know. I can't wait to watch this

677
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh in Baltimore game. It will be Sunday night football.

678
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 3: It'll be the last game of the regular season, and

679
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 3: to me, I think it kind of steps up in

680
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 3: the circumstances of the game because of how poorly both

681
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:34,879
Speaker 3: of these teams have played at different points this year.

682
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 3: Like there is a lot kind of historically on the

683
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 3: line for both of these teams, both these quarterbacks and

684
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:45,720
Speaker 3: both these coaches in this game, which it should be fun.

685
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's gonna be a fun one. We have talked

686
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 2: about it for a long time and it will be

687
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,399
Speaker 2: the game leading into our show next week, so we'll

688
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 2: get to talk about it again.

689
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 3: Then, all right, let's keep rolling here, Seattle Carolina. Seattle

690
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:00,879
Speaker 3: wins the game twenty seven to ten, the minus six

691
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:04,240
Speaker 3: and a half on the road on close total under

692
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 3: forty two and a half. Oh boy, Bryce Young, So

693
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 3: fourteen of twenty four for fifty four yards. Yeah, that's

694
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 3: fifty four. There's no one in front of that with

695
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 3: an interception. That is the fewest yards by a quarterback

696
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 3: with twenty four plus pass attempts since David Woodley in

697
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 3: nineteen eighty and a home crowd hasn't seen that few

698
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,399
Speaker 3: pass yards with that many attempts since nineteen seventy nine.

699
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:36,240
Speaker 3: So this was a historic, historic bad quarterback performance by Bryce.

700
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 3: And you could see it in the entire box score,

701
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 3: you could see it watching back tape. You could see

702
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 3: it in his passing chart. I mean he had four

703
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:47,800
Speaker 3: pass attempts seven plus yards downfield. He went oh for

704
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:52,280
Speaker 3: four with an interception. Cleveland's long reception of eight yards,

705
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 3: and not to take away anything from Chew ben Rico,

706
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:58,840
Speaker 3: but they're long rush of eleven yards. I mean, this

707
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 3: was the full gam of everything that Seattle's defense can

708
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 3: show you, and they brought it all in this game

709
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 3: because Bryce looked absolutely distraught most of his game. It

710
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 3: just running in circles, bad throws. I put obviously some

711
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,839
Speaker 3: of this on Canalist, but I think this was more

712
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 3: of just a Bryce Young issue.

713
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, Young's numbers were ghastly in this game. Two point

714
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 2: three yards per attempt awful, one point six average depth

715
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 2: of target. That is, that's telling you every time you threw,

716
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:34,319
Speaker 2: which was twenty four times your average throwing at one

717
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 2: yard past the past the line of scrimmage. That's what

718
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 2: that number is meaning. That is a zeroth percentile outcome.

719
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:42,800
Speaker 2: That that means that like, out of one hundred games

720
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:45,840
Speaker 2: you watch, this is the lowest that a quarterback bothered

721
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 2: even a throw. Negative more than half ant epa per play.

722
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:53,759
Speaker 2: Just awful. Every number you can find. These are the

723
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 2: sort of numbers you get from like when Max Brosmer

724
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 2: starts as a you know, seventh round rookie thrown into

725
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 2: the fire. This is a number one pick. This is

726
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 2: a dude that they're gonna have to decide in after

727
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,320
Speaker 2: one more game, are we picking up his contract extension?

728
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:12,360
Speaker 2: Are we gonna extend him this summer? Like this is embarrassing,

729
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 2: and I know Seattle's defense is good. Fifty four yards

730
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 2: is something else entirely like again one fifty four Sure

731
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 2: you can at least try good do something. I just

732
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 2: I don't know if Carolina can keep doing this, And

733
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,359
Speaker 2: yet they have a they might play a home game

734
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 2: in the playoffs a week from now as well if

735
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:32,759
Speaker 2: they get the win. Carolina one of eleven on third down,

736
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 2: two to five on fourth down. I gotta say, Seattle,

737
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 2: I'm a little bit worried about as well. The defense,

738
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 2: No defense was awesome, held Carolina one hundred and thirty

739
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 2: nine yards, ten first downs. All good for the defense.

740
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 2: They're clearly a super Bowl caliber defense to me, Seattle Houston.

741
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:50,760
Speaker 2: I don't know which ones one or two, but those

742
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 2: two have separated from the crowd. We've known that all year.

743
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:57,279
Speaker 2: But this was three to three halftime. Seattle did score

744
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 2: three touchdowns, all three short field, two short fields in

745
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:04,240
Speaker 2: the third quarter off of turnovers, another one short field

746
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 2: fourth quarter off of a turnover and down. So you

747
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 2: can't win this way against real playoff teams, which Carolina

748
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 2: or Tampa Bay, whoever wins, is not what I'm talking

749
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 2: about there, So again, I come away a little bit

750
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 2: worried about both teams. Like I guess I'm not worried

751
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:23,400
Speaker 2: about Carolina because it's like the mad Men, Like I

752
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 2: don't even think about Carolina, Like it's I don't need

753
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 2: to worry about Carolina. Seattle, though, is playing for the

754
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:31,760
Speaker 2: one seed next week, and you get Seattle's defense against

755
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:34,360
Speaker 2: San fran offense is going to be glorious to watch.

756
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 2: But then the other side, San Franz defense just got

757
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 2: lit up by Ben Johnson's offense and by Philip Rivers.

758
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 2: Really in the last week, what can Sam Darnold do.

759
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 2: Jays En supposed to be the offensive player of the year,

760
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 2: what can he do? He's kind of slowly been fading

761
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:52,800
Speaker 2: down the run game as hit or miss. For Seattle,

762
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 2: is their offense good enough? Because Carolina is not a

763
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 2: great defense. Carolina is not even a good defense. And

764
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 2: for Seattle to struggle this much in a game where

765
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 2: they have to get the win, and I know twenty

766
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 2: seven to ten doesn't sound like a struggle, but this

767
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,359
Speaker 2: was not a comfortable game for Seattle. Their defense won

768
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:13,919
Speaker 2: the game for them, But their defense can't win four

769
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:16,879
Speaker 2: games for them? Can it win three? With a bye

770
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:19,879
Speaker 2: a week. Okay, well the fourth is still san Fran

771
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 2: next week. They still got to win the four to

772
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 2: get there, and San Fran is just as you know,

773
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:27,799
Speaker 2: tough a game as any playoff games. So I came

774
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:32,399
Speaker 2: away worried about Seattle going forward, and I came away

775
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 2: almost wondering, We'll get to the Bucks game in a second.

776
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 2: If I'm a fan of Bucks Panthers, Like this is

777
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 2: probably unfair because I'm not a fan of these teams,

778
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 2: but I almost wonder if if whoever loses next week

779
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 2: might be better off, Like it might just be time

780
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 2: for Bryce Young. It might be time to admit this

781
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:51,240
Speaker 2: is not happening for you and move on. You can't

782
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:52,759
Speaker 2: do that. If you win the division to make the

783
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 2: playoff game, you have to do another Brice here. If

784
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:57,879
Speaker 2: you get a game like this next week, you might

785
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 2: have to move on. As for the Bucks, is it

786
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,920
Speaker 2: Todd Bowles, Is it like the whole Baker regime? This

787
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:06,319
Speaker 2: team they keep kind of going in on? Is it

788
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:08,360
Speaker 2: time to move on from that and just be like, Okay,

789
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 2: well so we're winning this bad division, but what does

790
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 2: that really mean to me? One of these teams is

791
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 2: going to host a home game in the playoffs and

792
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 2: probably as an underdog and significant underdog in all likelihood

793
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 2: and probably get embarrassed. But they're gonna still have to

794
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 2: kind of run it back because they hosted a home

795
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:26,840
Speaker 2: playoff game and won the division. They hung the banner,

796
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:29,879
Speaker 2: you know, And so I don't know, do you want

797
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 2: the temporary banner to hang or do you want to

798
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 2: admit reality? And the reality is Bryce Young sucked in

799
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 2: this game and is not a franchise quarterback and does

800
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:40,759
Speaker 2: not look like he can be that guy. This is

801
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 2: a playoff game, and he didn't show up for the game,

802
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 2: and at some point he had to accept reality with that, and.

803
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 3: Carolina had been playing much better at home. Didn't really

804
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 3: matter in this one. I mean, Seattle has been an

805
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,759
Speaker 3: absolute juggernaut on the road. They've won like eight or

806
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 3: nine straight at the one o'clock window as well, like

807
00:40:57,239 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 3: they have just Mike McDonald has put together a very,

808
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 3: very solid team. I'm kind of surprised he's still the

809
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:06,879
Speaker 3: third option to win Coach of the Year after tonight's game.

810
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 3: Kyle Shanahan now the favorite in that window, which is

811
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 3: kind of funny. At plus one thirty with Mike Vrabil

812
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 3: at plus one forty and Mike McDonald at five to one.

813
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 3: I just I personally cannot believe Liam Cohen the fourth

814
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 3: option at sixteen to one Ben Johnson at twenty to one.

815
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:27,320
Speaker 3: Any other year, both of those guys probably win this award.

816
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 3: Like there has been some unbelievable coaching jobs this year,

817
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 3: and I think it probably goes back to No Kansas City,

818
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:36,319
Speaker 3: No Baltimore, Like all these really good teams have been

819
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 3: thrown out the window. So all these great coaching performances,

820
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 3: but there's probably five winners there in most years, so

821
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:47,040
Speaker 3: you had mentioned it. Obviously, Carolina played well, decent, well enough,

822
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 3: well enough last week to get the win. Now this

823
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 3: week and complete dud. So the good thing for Carolina,

824
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 3: I guess going into next week is that they're all

825
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:58,359
Speaker 3: a loss. They're seven to zero against the spread off

826
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 3: of a loss this year, covering by over eleven points

827
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:03,880
Speaker 3: per game. They are the most wins without a loss

828
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 3: by any team in the NFL. When they're off a win,

829
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 3: they're now two to six against the spread, So they've

830
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 3: been kind of Jekyll and Hide in that area. A

831
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:13,960
Speaker 3: little bit of falconsy is what I'll call it. If

832
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 3: you know a little bit of history there. And the

833
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 3: thing with Seattle, which is interesting, Their second halfs since

834
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:22,799
Speaker 3: December one last four games have been obsurd They've scored

835
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 3: one hundred total points in their last four games in

836
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 3: the second half twenty four today, thirty one. Last week

837
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 3: they scored thirty one against Atlanta. They've just they've been

838
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 3: absolutely futile in the first half, three threes, et cetera,

839
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:37,399
Speaker 3: and then just lit them up in the second half.

840
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 3: That is not something you want to be doing in

841
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,360
Speaker 3: the playoffs, getting behind in any of these types of games. So,

842
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,320
Speaker 3: even though that is a nice statistic, it is something

843
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 3: that does scare me.

844
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you score three in the first half against

845
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:50,959
Speaker 2: San Francisco, you're not going to be the one seed

846
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 2: at the end of that game. That's not how that's

847
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:52,919
Speaker 2: gonna bet.

848
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:57,240
Speaker 3: All right, let's keep rolling here. Tampa Bay and Miami.

849
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 3: So Miami wins the game, twenty seven team they covered

850
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:03,399
Speaker 3: the plus five and a half on close total under

851
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:06,760
Speaker 3: forty four. We had talked about the teams who needed

852
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 3: to win to kind of progress versus eliminated, and this

853
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:13,279
Speaker 3: was one of the duds. But to me, Tampa Bay

854
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 3: at least played a little bit better in this game.

855
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:18,960
Speaker 3: What really just killed them was the turnovers. They had three,

856
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 3: they didn't force any. But again, Baker had a pretty

857
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 3: decent game, like other than the two interceptions, which I

858
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 3: think you know, one was a bit of a punt

859
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 3: like there was a there were mistakes which in the

860
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:35,399
Speaker 3: end did cost Tampa. But I feel like if you're

861
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 3: looking for anything, literally grasping it, absolutely anything for a

862
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 3: team who's one in seven in their last day and

863
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 3: who have failed to cover the spread in eight straight games,

864
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 3: you looked better this week. McMillan played well, like there

865
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:51,879
Speaker 3: were positives. The one thing they cannot run the ball.

866
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:55,839
Speaker 3: It's been absolutely terrible recently, especially Bucky. He has an

867
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 3: average four yards per carry in any game since he

868
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:00,840
Speaker 3: came back for injury. Came back from injury nine of

869
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 3: nineteen today. That's something that absolutely has to get better

870
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 3: against a pretty stout front line for Carolina next week,

871
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 3: and that's something I'm at least going to be looking at.

872
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:14,280
Speaker 3: But to me, best game from Baker probably in almost

873
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 3: two months.

874
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, still one awful interception, which is kind of like

875
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 2: power for the course on a Baker game, But yeah,

876
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:23,799
Speaker 2: he put up the numbers. He's gonna give you a

877
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 2: chance in games. I'd certainly rather have Baker than Bryce

878
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:32,960
Speaker 2: Young going into essentially a playoff game next week. Yeah, right, exactly.

879
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 2: I don't have too much more to add. I agret

880
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 2: that the Bucks were basically the better team, but then

881
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:40,319
Speaker 2: three turnovers and you know, turnovers count, so you're not

882
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:42,280
Speaker 2: the better team. When that happens, you lose the margin

883
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 2: by three, You're gonna lose most of those games. Tampa

884
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 2: Bay has now lost four games in a row. They

885
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 2: have lost seven of eight games, and they are still

886
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:53,680
Speaker 2: home favorites by field goal to host a home game

887
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 2: in the playoffs. Like, congrats, I guess on setting yourself

888
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:58,800
Speaker 2: up so well in the first half of the season.

889
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 2: It has in the first half. Right now here they are,

890
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 2: except they can still just like totally redeem themselves, just

891
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:06,560
Speaker 2: smash all the memes together and still get the home

892
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 2: playoff game. And look, if Carolina gets the home playoff game,

893
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 2: like we've seen, Carolina have some wonky games and the

894
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 2: right matchup for them we've talked about, that can be

895
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 2: good for them. Baker gives you a shot at least,

896
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:21,719
Speaker 2: Like at least if I have Baker I believe going

897
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:24,399
Speaker 2: into a game, if I have Bryce, my belief is, well,

898
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:26,080
Speaker 2: maybe we can just run the ball, stop the run

899
00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 2: and try to win, like seventeen to fourteen. With Baker,

900
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 2: I can at least pretend we might put up thirty

901
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 2: five and like have a shot in a game if

902
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 2: he just gets on a heater. So at least I'm

903
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 2: appreciative of that, and it's probably gonna be close. Bucks

904
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 2: have now played five straight games at four points or

905
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:45,800
Speaker 2: less by the margin. Now eleven games this season under

906
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 2: a touchdown. That's not just one score, that's under a

907
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:51,879
Speaker 2: touchdown that is coming down to basically the final play.

908
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 2: We saw that the whole first half of the season,

909
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 2: and they're a get on the right side of those.

910
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 2: Well now they're on the wrong side of all these,

911
00:45:57,400 --> 00:46:00,799
Speaker 2: but they're still competitive in these games. To me as

912
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 2: a neutral, again, I'm not a fan of either of

913
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 2: these teams. I would far rather see Tampa in a

914
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 2: playoff game because of the Baker factor, because of the excitement,

915
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 2: because of the upside. I think if you get Baker

916
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 2: home against it's gonna be an NFC West team, Seattle

917
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:19,319
Speaker 2: Rams or Niners. I can at least talk myself into

918
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 2: the Bucks and that game being interesting. I can't necessarily

919
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 2: do that with Carolina. It depends on what you get

920
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:30,239
Speaker 2: with Carolina. The only other note at Mecca Aguca I

921
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 2: think pretty clearly out of the Rookie of the Year

922
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 2: race at one point, having been the clear front runner

923
00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:38,399
Speaker 2: five targets, three of twenty catches. He's the fourth receiver now,

924
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 2: Like it's not just that Evans is back in Godwin

925
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:43,880
Speaker 2: Jalen McMillan seven FO one hundred and fourteen this game,

926
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:45,840
Speaker 2: and he's good. He's a good receiver and he was

927
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 2: hurt also, So I think Aguka fine long term, Like Dynasty,

928
00:46:49,640 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 2: You're fine, you want him as well, but it seems

929
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:54,719
Speaker 2: like he's probably drawing dead. I just pulled up the odds.

930
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 2: I'm surprised. Do you know who is the Rookie of

931
00:46:57,040 --> 00:46:58,759
Speaker 2: Year favor right now at DraftKings?

932
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:01,720
Speaker 3: I do not because I looked at another book earlier

933
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:03,560
Speaker 3: and it was still Tet, but I would guess it's

934
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 3: Tyler Shuck.

935
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 2: It is still Tet. I thought it would be Tyler

936
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 2: Shuck by now who I know missed the start of

937
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:10,360
Speaker 2: the season, but it's on what like a four or

938
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:14,200
Speaker 2: five game win streak. Now down the stretch, quarterbacks win awards.

939
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:17,879
Speaker 2: That's surprising to me. We talk about Bryce Young throning

940
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 2: for fifty four yards. Well, Ted McMillan's going to have

941
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:23,800
Speaker 2: a shot in a big Marquee game on Saturday to

942
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:27,759
Speaker 2: put up a game against beatable corners against Egbaca. So

943
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:30,680
Speaker 2: maybe that's the shot for Rookie of the Year. But

944
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:33,359
Speaker 2: I don't know, man, how much targetshear do you need

945
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 2: out a fifty four yard passing games to be able

946
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 2: to put up a Rookie of Year performance. Shuck might

947
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 2: just close out the year on a six game winning streak.

948
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 2: That seems like the wrong favorite to me, But either way,

949
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:46,879
Speaker 2: it does not seem like Agbica anymore at this point.

950
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, next week New Orleans in Atlanta right now plus

951
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 3: two and a half, and you just talked about what

952
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 3: Carolina has on deck. The Shuck thing is crazy only

953
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 3: because he opened the year sixty to one, doesn't play

954
00:47:58,080 --> 00:47:59,959
Speaker 3: believe he gets up to like two hundred and three

955
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 3: under to one and now basically on the doorstep of

956
00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:04,720
Speaker 3: winning the award. Kind of just says what the class

957
00:48:04,719 --> 00:48:07,759
Speaker 3: looks like. The only thing I'll say about Tampa and Carolina.

958
00:48:08,239 --> 00:48:11,760
Speaker 3: Carolina opened about three and a half point dogs, Well,

959
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 3: you've lost the hook currently down to three, and I

960
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised if it gets closer to pick them,

961
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,879
Speaker 3: but maybe closes in that one to two range, because

962
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:23,160
Speaker 3: I just think everyone doesn't have faith in Tampa and

963
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 3: I kind of think Tampa is the play So we

964
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 3: will see how that goes. We're going to go into

965
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 3: the Saturday slate. Now do this relatively quickly, and then

966
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:35,239
Speaker 3: we're gonna let Brandon reset the playoff picture kind of

967
00:48:35,520 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 3: for the AFC and NFC. So Houston Chargers. Houston wins

968
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:42,439
Speaker 3: the game twenty sixteen, covers plus one and a half

969
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 3: on closed total under forty one. I mean, if you

970
00:48:45,719 --> 00:48:48,640
Speaker 3: didn't watch this game, it's pretty simple. First Houston drive,

971
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 3: third play, seventy five yard touchdown pass from CJ. Stroud.

972
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:55,560
Speaker 3: Their second drive, fourth play, forty three yard touchdown pass

973
00:48:55,600 --> 00:48:59,920
Speaker 3: from CJ. Stroud. After that, Houston scores six points total

974
00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 3: in nine or ten basically drives the rest of the game.

975
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:07,400
Speaker 3: They did basically nothing. Start the game with fireworks and

976
00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 3: then the rest of the game was typical Houston. So

977
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:12,839
Speaker 3: I think going into the playoffs and again, I don't

978
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:15,120
Speaker 3: know how much we actually learn this week, since you

979
00:49:15,160 --> 00:49:17,800
Speaker 3: and I have been dissecting this week after week after week,

980
00:49:18,160 --> 00:49:20,720
Speaker 3: seems like these teams this is just what we got.

981
00:49:21,080 --> 00:49:24,840
Speaker 3: And Houston's offense is hopefully we get a few plays,

982
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:28,319
Speaker 3: hopefully we score enough points, and hopefully our defense does

983
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:30,879
Speaker 3: exactly what they do every single week. And that's kind

984
00:49:30,880 --> 00:49:33,840
Speaker 3: of what happened here against an offensive line that struggled

985
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:36,240
Speaker 3: most of the season since they've had injuries to Slater

986
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:40,439
Speaker 3: and all, and that's where we ended up. I will

987
00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:45,040
Speaker 3: say this, Houston has played really, really well defensively lately

988
00:49:45,160 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 3: and been listed as underdogs maybe in a game or two.

989
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:49,919
Speaker 3: I'm not sure they should have been dogs in this one,

990
00:49:50,120 --> 00:49:52,799
Speaker 3: but they've now won four straight outright as dogs. They

991
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:54,719
Speaker 3: haven't won four straight as dogs since two thousand and

992
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 3: eight two thousand and nine, and this is the first

993
00:49:56,560 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 3: time in franchise history they've done it in the same season.

994
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:03,280
Speaker 3: So what we're seeing from Demi Goo and crew super

995
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:06,080
Speaker 3: super impressive. But what else? What else did you take

996
00:50:06,080 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 3: away here?

997
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 2: Yeah? CJ is stroud For five minutes in the game,

998
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 2: It's like, okay, here we go. Houston AFC favorite and

999
00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:15,160
Speaker 2: then the rest of the game, it's like, man only

1000
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:16,840
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty six yards the whole rest of

1001
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 2: the game outside of those two huge throws, and I

1002
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 2: thought like four or five near interceptions, like actually has

1003
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 2: two interceptions, but several others where it's like, bro, what

1004
00:50:25,640 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 2: are you doing? Like is Minter's defense disguising coverages? Are

1005
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:31,560
Speaker 2: they confusing you? It's like it got to a point

1006
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:34,080
Speaker 2: in the second half, warts U seeing your defense is

1007
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:35,560
Speaker 2: good enough. Just hand the ball off. I know you

1008
00:50:35,600 --> 00:50:38,319
Speaker 2: can't run anyways, Just stop letting CG try to throw

1009
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:41,480
Speaker 2: the game away. And I almost came down to that happening.

1010
00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:45,320
Speaker 2: But Chargers two of five in the red zone cost

1011
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:48,360
Speaker 2: them Houston no red zone trips. Not great to not

1012
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:51,520
Speaker 2: get in the red zone in a game. Obviously, dick

1013
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:54,640
Speaker 2: Er the kicker misses the short field goal, late misses

1014
00:50:54,640 --> 00:50:57,280
Speaker 2: the extra point. You lose by four. That's four points.

1015
00:50:57,280 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 2: So that's the difference there. I thought slightly the better

1016
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:04,520
Speaker 2: team both these teams really Like this to me was

1017
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:07,400
Speaker 2: the dress rehearsal for the Saturday early playoff game, Like

1018
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:12,279
Speaker 2: this is a classic Texans Chargers defense battle who can

1019
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:14,279
Speaker 2: get a score here and there? It's kind of what

1020
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:16,840
Speaker 2: this felt like. I don't know that we learned necessarily

1021
00:51:16,840 --> 00:51:19,320
Speaker 2: a Ton Houston. I need to see the injury report.

1022
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:22,759
Speaker 2: Stingley left hurt, Kamari Lassiter left hurt. That's their two

1023
00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 2: corners who maybe are the best corner combo in the league.

1024
00:51:25,600 --> 00:51:28,719
Speaker 2: Lasser came back. Steingley's getting hurt like every month of

1025
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:31,560
Speaker 2: his career. Basically, ed Ingram's been really good on the

1026
00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:34,200
Speaker 2: line for them. They were missing I think both tackles

1027
00:51:34,200 --> 00:51:36,920
Speaker 2: this game. Ingram's a guard, so who's gonna play for

1028
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:40,840
Speaker 2: them on the line. Both teams really could use some rests.

1029
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:43,120
Speaker 2: So the Chargers kind of, like we said about the

1030
00:51:43,120 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 2: Bills earlier, maybe blessing the Skies for them to not

1031
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:48,279
Speaker 2: win this game. They were kind of a long shot

1032
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:50,319
Speaker 2: to move up anyways. I don't think they're gonna catch

1033
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:52,800
Speaker 2: Denver in the division, and they're not gonna really improve

1034
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:55,759
Speaker 2: a lot in their positioning. I think the Chargers really

1035
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:58,200
Speaker 2: should punt like Denver's gonna try to go get the

1036
00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 2: one seed. Herbert has been hanged up, give them a

1037
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 2: week off, try to get somebody out there who can

1038
00:52:03,600 --> 00:52:06,280
Speaker 2: block a little bit, get your defense a little bit healthy.

1039
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:08,719
Speaker 2: You know, you still have Herbert, you still have a

1040
00:52:08,760 --> 00:52:10,959
Speaker 2: team Herbert, and this defense can give you a shot

1041
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:14,840
Speaker 2: against anyone. And with Houston, they suddenly in pretty good shape.

1042
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:17,960
Speaker 2: The Buffalo loss was really big for Houston. We talked

1043
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:21,359
Speaker 2: about Buffalo losing pole position for the five seed, while

1044
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:25,840
Speaker 2: Houston took it. Houston with a win next week against

1045
00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:29,680
Speaker 2: I believe the Colts correct yess Houston with a win

1046
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 2: against Riley Leonards. Colts, by the way, if they get that,

1047
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:36,799
Speaker 2: you're either the five seed and you play Pittsburgh or Baltimore,

1048
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:39,759
Speaker 2: or if the Jaguars lose somehow, you're the three seed

1049
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 2: and you get the home division game. So I still

1050
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:44,840
Speaker 2: have my eye on Houston. I need more offense. I

1051
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:46,799
Speaker 2: need more consistency. I don't think we're gonna get it

1052
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:49,440
Speaker 2: because it's week seventeen and this is who we've got now.

1053
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:52,920
Speaker 2: But can we get a few big plays and then

1054
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:56,120
Speaker 2: have the defense dominate. Let me ask you this, Evan.

1055
00:52:56,640 --> 00:53:01,000
Speaker 2: I understand AFC, NFC, different schedules, different you know, positions

1056
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:06,759
Speaker 2: and everything. Team agnostic, Seattle's defense, Houston's defense. I don't

1057
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 2: necessarily know who's better, but which offense would you trust?

1058
00:53:10,160 --> 00:53:12,839
Speaker 2: Like if you could play a neutral four games, win

1059
00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 2: a super Bowl, forget the schedule, four games, forget home

1060
00:53:16,600 --> 00:53:19,680
Speaker 2: and away, you get one of their defenses. Do you

1061
00:53:19,719 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 2: trust the Houston offense or the Seattle offense if you

1062
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:23,759
Speaker 2: need to make a three to four game run in

1063
00:53:23,800 --> 00:53:24,400
Speaker 2: the playoffs.

1064
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:27,920
Speaker 3: So I think I would trust Seattle's offense more just

1065
00:53:27,960 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 3: because I think I trust McDonald's play calling and the

1066
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:34,800
Speaker 3: play calling of that offense more like I think they've

1067
00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:40,000
Speaker 3: I think they've better managed Donald than Demiico does managing

1068
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:43,360
Speaker 3: Stroud Because during this game, when you saw some of

1069
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:46,600
Speaker 3: these throws, you just you could have kneeled a bunch

1070
00:53:46,600 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 3: of times and it probably had a better outcome than

1071
00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:51,360
Speaker 3: some of those offensive drives later in the game. So

1072
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:55,120
Speaker 3: as much as I and I love myself some Texans,

1073
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:58,640
Speaker 3: I think overall their defense makes them maybe the top

1074
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:02,640
Speaker 3: two team three team the AFC at the moment, I

1075
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:06,200
Speaker 3: think I would probably trust Seattle because I also I

1076
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:10,640
Speaker 3: probably prefer JSN over Nico. I mean, Cooper Cup not

1077
00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:12,719
Speaker 3: exactly lighting up the world and has at all year,

1078
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:15,480
Speaker 3: but come playoff time in a game like that, I

1079
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:17,719
Speaker 3: think he's a decent option out there. The other thing

1080
00:54:17,760 --> 00:54:19,800
Speaker 3: that's interesting is like Houston has a bunch of young guys,

1081
00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 3: a bunch of flyers out there that could give some

1082
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:27,920
Speaker 3: teams some trouble. And with you know, it's Schultz versus Barner,

1083
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:31,960
Speaker 3: maybe Barner, So I think it kind of goes back

1084
00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:35,640
Speaker 3: and forth. And again, Houston's got Chubb and Marx, Seattle's

1085
00:54:35,680 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 3: got Walker and Charboney. So I think they're honestly a

1086
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:42,439
Speaker 3: little similar, which would be a very interesting playoff game.

1087
00:54:42,520 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 3: But I'd probably lean Seattle to me.

1088
00:54:45,239 --> 00:54:47,560
Speaker 2: I think Seattle is the correct answer. I think the

1089
00:54:47,640 --> 00:54:49,920
Speaker 2: line's a little bit better. You're right to point out

1090
00:54:49,920 --> 00:54:53,160
Speaker 2: the coaching Clint Kobiak's offense certainly much more reliable play

1091
00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:56,360
Speaker 2: calling than in Houston. I think the weapons overall a

1092
00:54:56,360 --> 00:55:00,040
Speaker 2: little bit better, certainly better running backs in Seattle. I

1093
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:02,400
Speaker 2: still think I might take Houston. And here's the reason.

1094
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:07,279
Speaker 2: The defenses are so good that my biggest concern is,

1095
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:10,400
Speaker 2: don't lose me the game? Offense? Can you not lose

1096
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:13,280
Speaker 2: me the game? And I think I trust CJ. Stroud

1097
00:55:13,440 --> 00:55:16,680
Speaker 2: and Houston's offense to not lose the game. Do I

1098
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:20,160
Speaker 2: trust Sam Donald to not lose the game four times

1099
00:55:20,200 --> 00:55:23,200
Speaker 2: in a row? Look, I'm more in my vis ugly sweater.

1100
00:55:23,320 --> 00:55:26,480
Speaker 2: So maybe it's scar tissue from Sam Donald. But I

1101
00:55:26,520 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 2: think we have to fear Sam Donald losing you the game.

1102
00:55:30,760 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 2: I don't know if c Stroud can win me games

1103
00:55:33,600 --> 00:55:36,399
Speaker 2: more than Sam Donald. I don't know how much better

1104
00:55:36,480 --> 00:55:39,120
Speaker 2: Jasen is than Nico. I think it's probably pretty close.

1105
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:43,239
Speaker 2: To be honest, I can make cases either direction, but

1106
00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:46,520
Speaker 2: I think the defenses are so good. I'd rather have

1107
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:49,040
Speaker 2: Houston's offense because I trust CG to not blow it,

1108
00:55:49,080 --> 00:55:51,080
Speaker 2: even though he almost did a couple times in this game,

1109
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:54,120
Speaker 2: where I still feel like we all fear the other

1110
00:55:54,200 --> 00:55:56,440
Speaker 2: shoe dropping. With Sam, at some point, we fear the

1111
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:59,799
Speaker 2: pumpkin coming. I think with CJ, we're still waiting for

1112
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:03,640
Speaker 2: you know, how hard will it be to wake up

1113
00:56:03,640 --> 00:56:05,640
Speaker 2: on February first and we're like, man, can you believe it?

1114
00:56:05,760 --> 00:56:08,160
Speaker 2: Cg's draft put it all together the month of January,

1115
00:56:08,200 --> 00:56:10,560
Speaker 2: Like that is a totally a plausible thing. I can

1116
00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:13,319
Speaker 2: sell myself that story. It's a lot harder for me

1117
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 2: to sell myself the Sam Donald story. At this point

1118
00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:18,239
Speaker 2: of his career, CJ maybe is just finally taking that

1119
00:56:18,280 --> 00:56:20,880
Speaker 2: next step, or maybe it's Trevor Lawrence. It's one of

1120
00:56:20,880 --> 00:56:23,880
Speaker 2: the Drake May who's already there, but in the playoffs,

1121
00:56:24,200 --> 00:56:27,200
Speaker 2: one of these young guys we've seen that we know

1122
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 2: that version of NFL. We don't see the Sam Donald

1123
00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:33,160
Speaker 2: version that much. And I think, with the defense this good,

1124
00:56:33,719 --> 00:56:37,280
Speaker 2: I'd rather sacrifice a little ceiling but take the floor.

1125
00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:40,040
Speaker 2: And so I still remain pretty high on Houston. I think,

1126
00:56:40,080 --> 00:56:43,680
Speaker 2: to me, that's the Saturday takeaway is Houston's path got

1127
00:56:43,719 --> 00:56:46,840
Speaker 2: even better in their path forward in the futures market

1128
00:56:47,080 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 2: getting that five seed, even if it's just that still

1129
00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:51,879
Speaker 2: on the road. But I really think this team can

1130
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:54,480
Speaker 2: make some noise and win multiple games. And I will

1131
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 2: not be at all shocked if they're sitting in the

1132
00:56:56,120 --> 00:56:57,480
Speaker 2: Super Bowl and we get to February one.

1133
00:56:58,160 --> 00:57:00,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, like I said, it was a super Bowl.

1134
00:57:00,719 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 3: He closed at like thirty seven and a half, the

1135
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:06,439
Speaker 3: lowest total we've ever seen. All right, let's keep rolling here.

1136
00:57:06,719 --> 00:57:09,240
Speaker 3: Baltimore and Green Bay was the other game on Saturday.

1137
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:12,040
Speaker 3: Baltimore wins forty one twenty four covers plus two and

1138
00:57:12,080 --> 00:57:14,520
Speaker 3: a half on closed total over thirty seven and a half.

1139
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:16,920
Speaker 3: This was the King Henry game, and it's nice to

1140
00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 3: know they made the mistake right, because that's exactly what

1141
00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:22,600
Speaker 3: you saw from Harbar alro was like, I screwed up,

1142
00:57:22,840 --> 00:57:24,760
Speaker 3: so today we ain't gonna screw up. And that's what

1143
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:27,200
Speaker 3: you saw. I had thirty six garries, two hundred and

1144
00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:30,520
Speaker 3: sixteen yards, and four touchdowns on the ground. He became

1145
00:57:30,560 --> 00:57:32,560
Speaker 3: the third player with those stats in the game since

1146
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:37,360
Speaker 3: nineteen seventy Mike Anderson two thousand, Corey Dillon nineteen ninety seven.

1147
00:57:37,600 --> 00:57:39,480
Speaker 3: So it had been twenty five years since we saw

1148
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:41,920
Speaker 3: our running back put up that many carries, that many

1149
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:46,400
Speaker 3: yards and four touchdowns. Just a ridiculous, ridiculous performance all around.

1150
00:57:46,880 --> 00:57:49,360
Speaker 3: And he's the reason they won because Malik Willis played

1151
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:53,160
Speaker 3: great and he was an absolute goddamn hero out there.

1152
00:57:53,920 --> 00:57:57,440
Speaker 3: And I'll give you these because obviously in a short

1153
00:57:57,640 --> 00:58:00,640
Speaker 3: play span, I believe he has one hundred and sixty

1154
00:58:00,720 --> 00:58:05,200
Speaker 3: total plays last three season, but he's been unbelievably efficient

1155
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:09,240
Speaker 3: EPA plus cpoe. He is the leader in the NFL

1156
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:12,040
Speaker 3: with one hundred plus plays the last three seasons. He's

1157
00:58:12,080 --> 00:58:15,640
Speaker 3: second in adjusted ePaper play. This season, he has a

1158
00:58:15,760 --> 00:58:20,440
Speaker 3: thirteen plus cpoe, which is absolutely nuts. Now, to be fair,

1159
00:58:21,320 --> 00:58:24,280
Speaker 3: Jordan Love is fifth in adjusted ePaper play hasn't been

1160
00:58:24,280 --> 00:58:27,480
Speaker 3: bad either, But what we've seen ada Malik Willis, and

1161
00:58:27,680 --> 00:58:31,000
Speaker 3: it's probably the mixture of Lafleur and Willis, Like the

1162
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:34,280
Speaker 3: offense is very well set up for him to have

1163
00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:37,280
Speaker 3: these type of stats and beat this efficient, especially him

1164
00:58:37,320 --> 00:58:40,760
Speaker 3: on the ground. He's picking up first downs, he's doing

1165
00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:44,920
Speaker 3: all the necessary things to move the chains. But you know,

1166
00:58:45,080 --> 00:58:47,760
Speaker 3: any other opponent I think in this spot and green

1167
00:58:47,800 --> 00:58:50,400
Speaker 3: Bay is probably way more in this game later in

1168
00:58:50,440 --> 00:58:53,400
Speaker 3: the game. But that's what I took away. I think

1169
00:58:53,400 --> 00:58:56,800
Speaker 3: it was exactly what Baltimore should have been for weeks

1170
00:58:56,800 --> 00:58:58,880
Speaker 3: and probably would have given them a few more wins

1171
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:01,680
Speaker 3: and they wouldn't even be in the spot. But maybe

1172
00:59:01,720 --> 00:59:05,480
Speaker 3: they learn their lesson just at the right time heading

1173
00:59:05,520 --> 00:59:08,880
Speaker 3: into a Pittsburgh rush defense that can be beat. Yeah.

1174
00:59:08,920 --> 00:59:10,920
Speaker 2: I mean, look, green Bay averaged over eight yards of

1175
00:59:10,960 --> 00:59:13,320
Speaker 2: play for the entire game of this one. So the

1176
00:59:13,360 --> 00:59:15,520
Speaker 2: offense is not to blame here. You do that without

1177
00:59:15,560 --> 00:59:18,640
Speaker 2: Jordan Love, You've done your job. Matt Lafleur and Malik Willis.

1178
00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:21,640
Speaker 2: The defense just can't stop anything right now, Like this

1179
00:59:21,720 --> 00:59:25,120
Speaker 2: is who Baltimore is supposed to be. Forty minutes of possession,

1180
00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:28,439
Speaker 2: thirty first downs, just run, run, run the entire game.

1181
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:31,960
Speaker 2: Fifty three runs for Baltimore, three hundred and seven yards,

1182
00:59:32,000 --> 00:59:35,440
Speaker 2: three hundred rushing yards for the Ravens, five point eight

1183
00:59:35,520 --> 00:59:39,400
Speaker 2: yards of carry. Packers defense is just embarrassing at this point.

1184
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:43,320
Speaker 2: And obviously no Micah Parsons. But you can't win games

1185
00:59:43,360 --> 00:59:46,320
Speaker 2: this way. You certainly cannot win four in the playoffs.

1186
00:59:46,320 --> 00:59:49,480
Speaker 2: This is a third straight seven seed for Matt Lafleur.

1187
00:59:49,920 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 2: I've seen some speculation out there of like, man, good

1188
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:55,080
Speaker 2: thing for Matt Lafleur, that they expanded the playoffs to

1189
00:59:55,160 --> 00:59:57,360
Speaker 2: seven because this would look a lot different at six.

1190
00:59:57,880 --> 01:00:00,880
Speaker 2: I think that's a fair point. So green Bay now

1191
01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:03,280
Speaker 2: zero to three this season when they did not punt

1192
01:00:03,320 --> 01:00:05,800
Speaker 2: the ball, which was the case in this game everyone

1193
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:09,160
Speaker 2: else in the NFL eight to no. Packers oh to three.

1194
01:00:09,520 --> 01:00:13,400
Speaker 2: So yeah, the offense, incredible work by Willis and Lafleur.

1195
01:00:13,760 --> 01:00:15,600
Speaker 2: I think they're a pretty good chance. Malik Willis will

1196
01:00:15,640 --> 01:00:17,800
Speaker 2: get a chance to start somewhere next year, at least

1197
01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:20,760
Speaker 2: compete for a job not in Green Bay. No, he

1198
01:00:20,880 --> 01:00:23,800
Speaker 2: is not better than Jordan Love, Don't be ridiculous. Yes,

1199
01:00:23,840 --> 01:00:28,120
Speaker 2: he may deserve a shot. Now, Packers again locked into

1200
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:30,360
Speaker 2: the seventh seed. They've already talked about they're gonna rest

1201
01:00:30,400 --> 01:00:33,280
Speaker 2: guys next week. Jordan Love won't play. They need their rest.

1202
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 2: They've had so many injuries on that team. On the

1203
01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:39,959
Speaker 2: offensive line, the receivers are banged up, the defense needs

1204
01:00:39,960 --> 01:00:42,320
Speaker 2: some guys. They're gonna find any solution. Green Bay is

1205
01:00:42,360 --> 01:00:45,400
Speaker 2: still dangerous. Like this is the Chargers in the NFC.

1206
01:00:45,480 --> 01:00:47,720
Speaker 2: This is a team that has a lot of injuries.

1207
01:00:47,960 --> 01:00:49,960
Speaker 2: But you still have coaching, you still have Join Love,

1208
01:00:50,000 --> 01:00:52,440
Speaker 2: you can still go win a game. I don't know

1209
01:00:52,520 --> 01:00:54,920
Speaker 2: that I can pick them to win four, but I

1210
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:56,920
Speaker 2: certainly can pick them to get a big upset and

1211
01:00:56,960 --> 01:01:00,160
Speaker 2: to ruin someone else's playoff run. And look the most

1212
01:01:00,240 --> 01:01:03,000
Speaker 2: likely outcome right now, Packers sitting in the seven, they're

1213
01:01:03,000 --> 01:01:05,920
Speaker 2: locked in. Who's the most likely two seed. Well that

1214
01:01:06,120 --> 01:01:08,480
Speaker 2: it's the Chicago Bears, and we might get that Bears

1215
01:01:08,480 --> 01:01:11,320
Speaker 2: Packers game one more time in the playoffs. I'll tell you,

1216
01:01:11,320 --> 01:01:13,400
Speaker 2: Bearers fans they want no part of that one. Like

1217
01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:16,360
Speaker 2: I know, we just watched tonight, Bears Niners. Beers fans

1218
01:01:16,400 --> 01:01:19,440
Speaker 2: don't want the Packers in the playoffs, or maybe they do.

1219
01:01:19,800 --> 01:01:21,760
Speaker 2: Everyone wants to win that game. But nobody wants to

1220
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:23,919
Speaker 2: be on hook for the loss there, so that one

1221
01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:25,600
Speaker 2: looks very enticing for sure.

1222
01:01:26,200 --> 01:01:28,840
Speaker 3: All Right, I mean to me, just keep going here.

1223
01:01:28,960 --> 01:01:31,560
Speaker 3: We're going to do a playoff picture reset, but you

1224
01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:33,320
Speaker 3: might as well keep rolling here. So why don't you

1225
01:01:33,360 --> 01:01:35,960
Speaker 3: start with the AFC and kind of go from there

1226
01:01:36,000 --> 01:01:37,400
Speaker 3: and I can give you a little bit of feedback.

1227
01:01:38,000 --> 01:01:40,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'll start with the NFC since we

1228
01:01:40,160 --> 01:01:41,800
Speaker 2: just kind of did that with the Bears. So yeah,

1229
01:01:41,840 --> 01:01:44,919
Speaker 2: green Bay locked in as the seven four seed goes

1230
01:01:44,960 --> 01:01:47,960
Speaker 2: Tampa Carolina. We've known that for like three months already.

1231
01:01:48,280 --> 01:01:51,480
Speaker 2: The one seed now is Saturday nights Seattle, San fran

1232
01:01:51,680 --> 01:01:54,920
Speaker 2: That one is scheduled. That is for the one seed,

1233
01:01:55,360 --> 01:01:58,680
Speaker 2: two seed, and three is Chicago Philly in that order.

1234
01:01:58,800 --> 01:02:02,280
Speaker 2: Unless the Bears lose and the Eagles win. I don't

1235
01:02:02,320 --> 01:02:04,720
Speaker 2: expect that to happen, though, I will have my eye

1236
01:02:04,760 --> 01:02:07,600
Speaker 2: on Detroit. I'm not so sure Detroit is a rollover

1237
01:02:07,640 --> 01:02:10,920
Speaker 2: and play dead team that to me, screams Dan Campbell.

1238
01:02:10,960 --> 01:02:14,080
Speaker 2: Culture setting go ruin the Bears season, And I don't

1239
01:02:14,080 --> 01:02:15,880
Speaker 2: know how much you ruin it dropping from two to

1240
01:02:15,920 --> 01:02:18,840
Speaker 2: three seed, but that to me seems like a Detroit

1241
01:02:18,880 --> 01:02:22,520
Speaker 2: spot so most likely Seattle Sanfran as the one, and

1242
01:02:22,600 --> 01:02:26,440
Speaker 2: the bye week, Chicago two, Philly three, somebody terrible in

1243
01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:29,560
Speaker 2: the NFC South at four, and then probably the Rams

1244
01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:31,800
Speaker 2: at five. If the Rams win Monday night, which we'll

1245
01:02:31,800 --> 01:02:34,080
Speaker 2: get to in a second, they're pretty close to lock

1246
01:02:34,160 --> 01:02:36,840
Speaker 2: at five, and that means that the Seattle San Fran

1247
01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:39,920
Speaker 2: loser drops from one all the way to six and

1248
01:02:40,000 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 2: maybe goes to Philadelphia and then Packers at the two seeds.

1249
01:02:43,240 --> 01:02:47,040
Speaker 2: So that's NFC. The AFC is pretty close to set,

1250
01:02:47,120 --> 01:02:50,280
Speaker 2: I think partly because the teams that are need to

1251
01:02:50,360 --> 01:02:54,040
Speaker 2: win should win next week. So in all likelihood one, two,

1252
01:02:54,200 --> 01:02:57,840
Speaker 2: three goes Denver, New England, Jacksonville. All those teams need

1253
01:02:57,920 --> 01:03:00,640
Speaker 2: to win to get those, but they're all so multaneous.

1254
01:03:00,720 --> 01:03:04,040
Speaker 2: I think they all win. Four seed pittsburgher Baltimore. That's

1255
01:03:04,040 --> 01:03:06,920
Speaker 2: the finale we've talked about, and then five six seven

1256
01:03:07,360 --> 01:03:10,919
Speaker 2: is some combo of Houston Buffalo Chargers. I believe that's

1257
01:03:10,920 --> 01:03:13,640
Speaker 2: the most likely outcome we talked about that Houston with

1258
01:03:13,720 --> 01:03:16,439
Speaker 2: the win locks at least the five seed. I think

1259
01:03:16,440 --> 01:03:19,640
Speaker 2: the Chargers most likely lose. Chargers with the loss lock

1260
01:03:19,720 --> 01:03:22,640
Speaker 2: the seven seed. Not the worst spot for them because

1261
01:03:22,680 --> 01:03:25,080
Speaker 2: you might get to play New England and Denver, and

1262
01:03:25,280 --> 01:03:29,320
Speaker 2: we've talked about the opening there. Buffalo six Jacksonville three

1263
01:03:29,520 --> 01:03:32,600
Speaker 2: is the most likely outcome right now? That is your

1264
01:03:32,640 --> 01:03:35,080
Speaker 2: crown jewel in the AFC. Like to me, that's the

1265
01:03:35,160 --> 01:03:37,120
Speaker 2: game that we say, Okay, I don't know who wins

1266
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:39,960
Speaker 2: this one necessarily, but whoever you like? Is that your

1267
01:03:40,000 --> 01:03:42,400
Speaker 2: AFC peak as well? Like, is whoever comes out of

1268
01:03:42,440 --> 01:03:45,000
Speaker 2: that one? Do they become the hot team that everyone

1269
01:03:45,040 --> 01:03:47,480
Speaker 2: wants to take a look at in the AFC. So

1270
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:51,160
Speaker 2: pictures starting to become pretty clear. We still have a

1271
01:03:51,200 --> 01:03:53,920
Speaker 2: few big spots to determine. Obviously, NFC one seed is

1272
01:03:53,920 --> 01:03:56,440
Speaker 2: the big one, and we'll get to a couple of

1273
01:03:56,440 --> 01:03:58,960
Speaker 2: those AFC big favorites when I get to the hot

1274
01:03:58,960 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 2: read in a minute as well.

1275
01:04:00,560 --> 01:04:03,440
Speaker 3: The only question I have is shouldn't the Lions, I mean,

1276
01:04:03,680 --> 01:04:06,320
Speaker 3: understanding culture and everything, shouldn't they want to lose that game?

1277
01:04:06,640 --> 01:04:09,440
Speaker 3: You'd want to finish last in their division giving their

1278
01:04:09,480 --> 01:04:11,960
Speaker 3: schedule next year, and I believe if they finished with

1279
01:04:11,960 --> 01:04:14,200
Speaker 3: the same record as Minnesota they would finish fourth since

1280
01:04:14,240 --> 01:04:19,280
Speaker 3: they lost both games. So you know, if you assume Minnesota,

1281
01:04:19,360 --> 01:04:22,560
Speaker 3: if you assume Minnesota wins the game next week against

1282
01:04:22,920 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 3: Green Bay, who's sitting everybody. They're like a six to

1283
01:04:24,840 --> 01:04:26,880
Speaker 3: six and a half point favorite, then I guess the

1284
01:04:26,920 --> 01:04:30,320
Speaker 3: Detroit game just doesn't matter at all because you're finishing

1285
01:04:30,320 --> 01:04:33,360
Speaker 3: fourth no matter what. So maybe that's why you would

1286
01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:37,840
Speaker 3: try to ruin Chicago, basically pulling them down. But yeah,

1287
01:04:38,440 --> 01:04:39,920
Speaker 3: that's four over three is big.

1288
01:04:40,480 --> 01:04:43,040
Speaker 2: It is big, But it's also three games on the schedule,

1289
01:04:43,080 --> 01:04:45,040
Speaker 2: which is not nothing like three games can swing the

1290
01:04:45,040 --> 01:04:47,400
Speaker 2: whole season. Three games can swing the Lions season. This

1291
01:04:47,480 --> 01:04:50,959
Speaker 2: year to me, just everything of who the Lions are.

1292
01:04:51,360 --> 01:04:53,800
Speaker 2: Dan Campbell is not looking at that and being like, well,

1293
01:04:53,840 --> 01:04:55,200
Speaker 2: you know what I'd love. I'd love to be the

1294
01:04:55,200 --> 01:04:57,600
Speaker 2: four seed in our division and get that better playoffs

1295
01:04:57,600 --> 01:04:58,680
Speaker 2: for your schedule for next year.

1296
01:04:58,720 --> 01:04:59,200
Speaker 3: Life. I get it.

1297
01:04:59,280 --> 01:05:02,040
Speaker 2: Dan Campbell wants to go and be like, no, screw that.

1298
01:05:02,040 --> 01:05:04,560
Speaker 2: We want to finish over five hundred. We got crushed

1299
01:05:04,560 --> 01:05:06,800
Speaker 2: by injuries this year. Let's end the year on the

1300
01:05:06,880 --> 01:05:09,840
Speaker 2: right note. Let's go out swinging like that is so

1301
01:05:10,200 --> 01:05:13,360
Speaker 2: Detroit culture to me. So we'll see. I'm not there yet,

1302
01:05:13,400 --> 01:05:16,720
Speaker 2: but best best episode. Don't be surprised if we get

1303
01:05:16,760 --> 01:05:19,040
Speaker 2: a Lion's money line in there. That just seems like

1304
01:05:19,480 --> 01:05:22,800
Speaker 2: a Dan Campbell's sort of play. I guarantee you Lions

1305
01:05:22,880 --> 01:05:25,560
Speaker 2: fans would like to lose that game, But like you said,

1306
01:05:25,880 --> 01:05:28,680
Speaker 2: Minnesota's favored in Minnesota is the tie break right now.

1307
01:05:28,680 --> 01:05:31,400
Speaker 2: If the Vikings win, the Lions can win, finish nine

1308
01:05:31,440 --> 01:05:33,760
Speaker 2: to eight and still be last in division. Have their cake,

1309
01:05:33,760 --> 01:05:35,760
Speaker 2: you eat it too. So to me, that would be

1310
01:05:35,800 --> 01:05:39,080
Speaker 2: the likely play. I think that that is in a

1311
01:05:39,120 --> 01:05:41,920
Speaker 2: play for the Lions, but you know it's their last

1312
01:05:42,000 --> 01:05:45,040
Speaker 2: chance because they're out, Like the Lions don't get to

1313
01:05:45,040 --> 01:05:47,480
Speaker 2: be in our playoff picture anymore. I think I saw

1314
01:05:47,560 --> 01:05:50,440
Speaker 2: only the fifth time ever that both one sees the

1315
01:05:50,440 --> 01:05:53,080
Speaker 2: previous year missed the following playoffs. So that's the sort

1316
01:05:53,120 --> 01:05:54,760
Speaker 2: of year that it has been in the NFL.

1317
01:05:55,440 --> 01:05:57,640
Speaker 3: And you're going to assume Chicago plays everyone right like

1318
01:05:57,680 --> 01:05:59,880
Speaker 3: they are pushing to win that game, right.

1319
01:06:00,400 --> 01:06:04,200
Speaker 2: I would imagine, Yeah, I don't know why you wouldn't

1320
01:06:04,240 --> 01:06:06,760
Speaker 2: go try to get the two seed. There's a chance

1321
01:06:06,800 --> 01:06:09,320
Speaker 2: if the Eagles don't play it well and are like

1322
01:06:09,400 --> 01:06:12,240
Speaker 2: down a lot at halftime. If the Eagles lost locks

1323
01:06:12,320 --> 01:06:15,480
Speaker 2: Chicago anyway, so maybe they kind of that the week eighteen.

1324
01:06:15,680 --> 01:06:18,440
Speaker 2: You never know who's gonna pull shenanigans like that. I

1325
01:06:18,480 --> 01:06:21,840
Speaker 2: would assume Chicago tries to get the two seed because

1326
01:06:22,160 --> 01:06:26,160
Speaker 2: Chicago two seed means hosting the Eagles. We saw Bears Eagles.

1327
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:27,919
Speaker 2: I think that was the Black Friday game. You want

1328
01:06:27,920 --> 01:06:30,040
Speaker 2: to host that game. If you win the first one,

1329
01:06:30,080 --> 01:06:32,400
Speaker 2: you get the second one. So you certainly want to

1330
01:06:32,440 --> 01:06:34,080
Speaker 2: be the two, not the three, even if it means

1331
01:06:34,280 --> 01:06:36,280
Speaker 2: having the face of your hated Packers' rivals.

1332
01:06:36,960 --> 01:06:39,760
Speaker 3: And just for an fi right now, the Bears are

1333
01:06:39,840 --> 01:06:43,240
Speaker 3: two point home favorites against Detroit, which tells me they

1334
01:06:43,240 --> 01:06:46,240
Speaker 3: think Detroit's gonna play people, or that spread would be

1335
01:06:46,280 --> 01:06:49,040
Speaker 3: a lot higher. All right, let's keep rolling here. Are

1336
01:06:49,040 --> 01:06:49,880
Speaker 3: you good to keep going?

1337
01:06:50,600 --> 01:06:52,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's move all right.

1338
01:06:52,400 --> 01:06:54,080
Speaker 3: Just the scores now, I'm going to roll through a

1339
01:06:54,080 --> 01:06:58,040
Speaker 3: few of these. So Arizona Cincinnati. Cincinnati wins thirty seven

1340
01:06:58,040 --> 01:07:00,840
Speaker 3: to fourteen. They cover minus seven on close at home

1341
01:07:00,920 --> 01:07:03,880
Speaker 3: total under fifty three and a half. Jamar Chase said

1342
01:07:03,920 --> 01:07:06,760
Speaker 3: you would get a touchdown this week, and he got

1343
01:07:06,760 --> 01:07:08,600
Speaker 3: two and he got the first. So we should have

1344
01:07:08,680 --> 01:07:12,080
Speaker 3: listened to him, and hopefully you did. And from Arizona's side,

1345
01:07:12,120 --> 01:07:16,040
Speaker 3: the slide continued. Arizona now one in thirteen. In their

1346
01:07:16,120 --> 01:07:20,440
Speaker 3: last fourteen games, they've lost eight straight. They're only winning

1347
01:07:20,480 --> 01:07:23,080
Speaker 3: that span, of course, on the road in Dallas, which

1348
01:07:23,120 --> 01:07:25,120
Speaker 3: says everything you need to know about what the Cowboys

1349
01:07:25,120 --> 01:07:29,480
Speaker 3: seeson has looked like. All right, keep rowling, Jaguars, Colts.

1350
01:07:29,600 --> 01:07:33,000
Speaker 3: Jaguars win the game twenty three seventeen. They cover minus

1351
01:07:33,040 --> 01:07:35,000
Speaker 3: four and a half on close on the road. They

1352
01:07:35,040 --> 01:07:37,040
Speaker 3: even clevered the five and a half that was sitting

1353
01:07:37,120 --> 01:07:39,920
Speaker 3: there most of the week, total under forty eight and

1354
01:07:39,960 --> 01:07:43,760
Speaker 3: a half. The Jaguars continue to be a ridiculous thorn

1355
01:07:43,880 --> 01:07:47,560
Speaker 3: in Indies side. Since twenty fifteen, Indy is three eighteen

1356
01:07:47,720 --> 01:07:51,400
Speaker 3: and one against the spread versus the Jaguars in that span,

1357
01:07:51,880 --> 01:07:55,000
Speaker 3: none of the ten Colts quarterbacks are above five hundred

1358
01:07:55,040 --> 01:07:58,560
Speaker 3: ats versus the Jaguars, and mister Rivers himself is zero

1359
01:07:58,640 --> 01:08:03,320
Speaker 3: to three at versus Jacksonville in that span. The Jaguars

1360
01:08:03,480 --> 01:08:06,919
Speaker 3: eleven and five against the spread through sixteen games, tied

1361
01:08:06,960 --> 01:08:11,160
Speaker 3: for their best ATS start in franchise history, and the

1362
01:08:11,160 --> 01:08:14,680
Speaker 3: Colts started eight and two, now missing the playoffs, first

1363
01:08:14,680 --> 01:08:18,240
Speaker 3: team to do that since the nineteen ninety five Raiders.

1364
01:08:18,280 --> 01:08:21,559
Speaker 3: Just an awful collapse from ssichening crew, especially after giving

1365
01:08:21,640 --> 01:08:25,840
Speaker 3: up those assets for sauce, and just an unfortunate end

1366
01:08:25,840 --> 01:08:29,000
Speaker 3: of the season for the Colts. All Right, New England

1367
01:08:29,000 --> 01:08:31,240
Speaker 3: and the Jets. New England wins the game forty two

1368
01:08:31,280 --> 01:08:34,519
Speaker 3: to ten, covers minus thirteen on the road total over

1369
01:08:34,600 --> 01:08:38,000
Speaker 3: forty two and a half. Patriots continue their domination with

1370
01:08:38,200 --> 01:08:40,519
Speaker 3: or without Brady of the Jets. They are eighteen and

1371
01:08:40,600 --> 01:08:44,600
Speaker 3: two in their last twenty twenty six and four in

1372
01:08:44,680 --> 01:08:47,920
Speaker 3: their last thirty. Since the twenty eleven season, they are

1373
01:08:47,960 --> 01:08:51,640
Speaker 3: also eight and two ats and twelve and four ats

1374
01:08:51,720 --> 01:08:54,400
Speaker 3: in their last ten and sixteen. They just no matter

1375
01:08:54,520 --> 01:08:57,800
Speaker 3: the circumstance, no matter the quarterback, it don't matter. Jets

1376
01:08:57,840 --> 01:09:00,200
Speaker 3: have struggled versus New England all the time. And then

1377
01:09:00,200 --> 01:09:02,680
Speaker 3: you look at Drake May who is now three and

1378
01:09:02,720 --> 01:09:04,679
Speaker 3: Ozho straight up in ats versus the Jets as well,

1379
01:09:04,720 --> 01:09:07,439
Speaker 3: scoring twenty five plus in all three games. It's like

1380
01:09:07,479 --> 01:09:11,880
Speaker 3: Brady never left. All Right, New Orleans and Tennessee. New

1381
01:09:12,040 --> 01:09:14,360
Speaker 3: Orleans wins the game thirty four to twenty six covers

1382
01:09:14,400 --> 01:09:16,679
Speaker 3: minus one and a half on the road total over

1383
01:09:16,760 --> 01:09:19,160
Speaker 3: thirty eight and a half. The Saints continue to be

1384
01:09:19,160 --> 01:09:22,639
Speaker 3: streaking they've won four straight outright, and they've covered five

1385
01:09:22,680 --> 01:09:26,040
Speaker 3: in a row, and leading to our conversation from before,

1386
01:09:26,360 --> 01:09:30,720
Speaker 3: Tyler Shuck now basically even for offensive Rookie of the

1387
01:09:30,800 --> 01:09:33,720
Speaker 3: Year after being two hundred three hundred to one mid

1388
01:09:33,800 --> 01:09:36,479
Speaker 3: season and sixty to one and during the year, so

1389
01:09:36,680 --> 01:09:39,960
Speaker 3: a huge up and comer there and Tennessee, Man, they

1390
01:09:40,000 --> 01:09:42,120
Speaker 3: need to end this at some point. They've lost twelve

1391
01:09:42,200 --> 01:09:45,360
Speaker 3: consecutive games, both straight up and against the spread after

1392
01:09:45,479 --> 01:09:48,120
Speaker 3: a straight up win. That is the longest active streak

1393
01:09:48,280 --> 01:09:51,479
Speaker 3: in the NFL. New Orleans though this one kind of

1394
01:09:51,479 --> 01:09:54,839
Speaker 3: surprised me. They are twelve and four second half ats.

1395
01:09:54,880 --> 01:09:57,160
Speaker 3: That is the best record in the NFL and a

1396
01:09:57,160 --> 01:09:58,920
Speaker 3: lot of that have come during that streak and with

1397
01:09:59,080 --> 01:10:02,759
Speaker 3: Shuck at quarterback, so it seems like they found their

1398
01:10:02,840 --> 01:10:06,400
Speaker 3: QB going forward. And finally, and of course you put

1399
01:10:06,400 --> 01:10:09,400
Speaker 3: this last, Giants win the game thirty four to ten

1400
01:10:09,439 --> 01:10:11,639
Speaker 3: over the Raiders cover minus three on the road, total

1401
01:10:11,760 --> 01:10:14,799
Speaker 3: over forty and a half. This was the first matchup

1402
01:10:14,800 --> 01:10:18,000
Speaker 3: in Super Bowl history of teams on both nine plus

1403
01:10:18,040 --> 01:10:21,360
Speaker 3: game losing streaks. The interesting thing with the Giants now

1404
01:10:21,479 --> 01:10:23,679
Speaker 3: seven and two to the over in the last nine

1405
01:10:23,720 --> 01:10:26,680
Speaker 3: starts to Jackson Dart, so you've seen some points. They

1406
01:10:26,680 --> 01:10:28,920
Speaker 3: are also nine and four to the over with Dart

1407
01:10:28,960 --> 01:10:31,240
Speaker 3: and Jamis, and they were one and two with Russ

1408
01:10:31,840 --> 01:10:34,160
Speaker 3: and the Raiders. This one kills me. Since they moved

1409
01:10:34,160 --> 01:10:38,080
Speaker 3: to Vegas last fourteen home games, they are two and twelve.

1410
01:10:38,680 --> 01:10:40,920
Speaker 3: Need to find some new stuff going on there with

1411
01:10:41,000 --> 01:10:43,519
Speaker 3: the Raiders now before we get to Monday Night Football.

1412
01:10:44,080 --> 01:10:45,599
Speaker 3: If you'd like to tail some of the bets we're

1413
01:10:45,600 --> 01:10:48,120
Speaker 3: about to discuss, find the quick slip link in the

1414
01:10:48,120 --> 01:10:51,639
Speaker 3: podcast in video description, or visit actionework dot Com slash

1415
01:10:51,680 --> 01:10:54,519
Speaker 3: bet now. You can also look in the live YouTube

1416
01:10:54,600 --> 01:10:56,599
Speaker 3: chat if you're still hanging out with us, or even better,

1417
01:10:56,960 --> 01:10:59,960
Speaker 3: sign up for Action Pro. Action Pro users get real

1418
01:11:00,080 --> 01:11:03,360
Speaker 3: time alerts as soon as experts like Stuckey, Brandon Anderson,

1419
01:11:03,520 --> 01:11:06,840
Speaker 3: Chris Raybon all track their picks. In the app, you'll

1420
01:11:06,840 --> 01:11:10,400
Speaker 3: get real money percentages, you'll see where the smart money's flowing.

1421
01:11:10,600 --> 01:11:14,320
Speaker 3: Access to our player prop projections powered by Sean Kerner,

1422
01:11:14,360 --> 01:11:17,080
Speaker 3: including live player props as well, which is a very

1423
01:11:17,080 --> 01:11:20,439
Speaker 3: cool feature. To go to Actionnework dot com slash Pro

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01:11:20,760 --> 01:11:24,280
Speaker 3: to get started and use promo code Pod twenty Pod

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Speaker 3: the holidays. That's promo code Pod twenty for twenty dollars

1427
01:11:32,360 --> 01:11:46,680
Speaker 3: off and actionnwork dot Com slash pro all right, Rams

1428
01:11:46,720 --> 01:11:50,120
Speaker 3: at Falcons, which I think my favorite storyline right now

1429
01:11:50,200 --> 01:11:52,200
Speaker 3: is the fact that the Falcons can actually tie for

1430
01:11:52,280 --> 01:11:54,600
Speaker 3: first place in the division by the end of this

1431
01:11:54,640 --> 01:11:56,720
Speaker 3: season if they get a few more wins, which is

1432
01:11:57,160 --> 01:12:00,720
Speaker 3: just so Falcons to do right now. Line sits at

1433
01:12:00,760 --> 01:12:03,599
Speaker 3: about RAMS minus seven and a half with a total

1434
01:12:03,640 --> 01:12:06,439
Speaker 3: of forty nine and a half. I will give it

1435
01:12:06,479 --> 01:12:08,120
Speaker 3: to you. What do you like in this game?

1436
01:12:08,760 --> 01:12:11,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, Actually, if the Falcons were to win their final

1437
01:12:11,360 --> 01:12:14,680
Speaker 2: two games, then that would clinch the division for the Panthers.

1438
01:12:15,040 --> 01:12:18,200
Speaker 2: That's part of why the Bucks and Panthers game opens

1439
01:12:18,280 --> 01:12:20,720
Speaker 2: our play on Saturday. They need to have that game

1440
01:12:20,760 --> 01:12:24,519
Speaker 2: happen before the Falcons game, otherwise Atlanta might have accidentally

1441
01:12:24,520 --> 01:12:26,559
Speaker 2: determined the winner of the division just because of all

1442
01:12:26,560 --> 01:12:29,559
Speaker 2: the wonky tiebreakers stuff. Kind of a fun game, honestly,

1443
01:12:29,600 --> 01:12:31,720
Speaker 2: I think we're get some points in this one. We

1444
01:12:31,760 --> 01:12:34,479
Speaker 2: get Kirk Cousins on a Monday night. We know about

1445
01:12:34,479 --> 01:12:37,600
Speaker 2: that style of THEOIGNDMIT four and eleven ats now not

1446
01:12:37,720 --> 01:12:40,280
Speaker 2: exactly good, but it's covered for the last six Kirk

1447
01:12:40,280 --> 01:12:43,200
Speaker 2: cousins and won five of those six. I think the

1448
01:12:43,200 --> 01:12:44,880
Speaker 2: Falcons are going to move the ball and score some.

1449
01:12:44,960 --> 01:12:47,400
Speaker 2: Their offense has been pretty good with Kirk top ten

1450
01:12:47,479 --> 01:12:50,760
Speaker 2: by DVAA. The run offense has been especially good. The

1451
01:12:50,880 --> 01:12:53,559
Speaker 2: Rams have been good against the run they faced this

1452
01:12:53,640 --> 01:12:58,000
Speaker 2: year three top ten rushing offenses by DVA nineteen points

1453
01:12:58,040 --> 01:13:01,000
Speaker 2: a game, allowed three to zero average running back twenty

1454
01:13:01,040 --> 01:13:04,000
Speaker 2: two for ninety five. That's fine. They're gonna take that.

1455
01:13:04,080 --> 01:13:06,320
Speaker 2: If they do that, they will win this game. Rams

1456
01:13:06,360 --> 01:13:08,799
Speaker 2: have also been really good against tight ends and running

1457
01:13:08,800 --> 01:13:12,080
Speaker 2: back receptions. That sets up well against Atlanta as well.

1458
01:13:12,479 --> 01:13:14,960
Speaker 2: I think the defense holds up at least enough. On

1459
01:13:15,040 --> 01:13:17,559
Speaker 2: the flip side, Atlanta's been really good against tight ends.

1460
01:13:17,800 --> 01:13:20,120
Speaker 2: We've talked a lot about that thirteen personnel, all those

1461
01:13:20,200 --> 01:13:25,120
Speaker 2: Rams tight ends. No Devonte Adams, so Puka Nakua five

1462
01:13:25,240 --> 01:13:27,519
Speaker 2: hundred and seventy three yards the last three games at

1463
01:13:27,600 --> 01:13:30,360
Speaker 2: least one sixty seven to all three. His line in

1464
01:13:30,400 --> 01:13:33,439
Speaker 2: this game is one hundred and seven point five receiving yards.

1465
01:13:33,439 --> 01:13:36,760
Speaker 2: That's just the standard over under, second highest in like

1466
01:13:36,800 --> 01:13:39,599
Speaker 2: the last decade, behind Cooper cup who, by the way,

1467
01:13:39,920 --> 01:13:42,920
Speaker 2: is the exact same guy in this offense for Stafford

1468
01:13:43,200 --> 01:13:46,559
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two. If you'll want Pooka one hundred

1469
01:13:46,560 --> 01:13:49,559
Speaker 2: and fifty yards plus three fifty can hate that he's

1470
01:13:49,600 --> 01:13:52,400
Speaker 2: hit it three weeks in a row. I think the

1471
01:13:52,439 --> 01:13:55,240
Speaker 2: real edge in this game is not the Rams passing attack,

1472
01:13:55,680 --> 01:13:58,400
Speaker 2: it's their rushing attack. I think they are going to

1473
01:13:58,479 --> 01:14:01,360
Speaker 2: run the ball. They're the number one rushing offense DVA

1474
01:14:01,560 --> 01:14:05,439
Speaker 2: and success rate Atlanta bottom ten against the run by

1475
01:14:05,439 --> 01:14:08,360
Speaker 2: pretty much any stat you want to pull, epa success DVO,

1476
01:14:08,400 --> 01:14:11,679
Speaker 2: any of those things. So Kyron Williams and Blake Corum,

1477
01:14:12,080 --> 01:14:13,639
Speaker 2: I think is going to be a two headed monster

1478
01:14:13,680 --> 01:14:16,320
Speaker 2: in this game. I looked at Kyron rushing yard over

1479
01:14:16,360 --> 01:14:19,120
Speaker 2: sixty two and a half. That's hit eighty percent this year,

1480
01:14:19,280 --> 01:14:22,719
Speaker 2: seventy plus in seven of eight. I think I agree

1481
01:14:22,720 --> 01:14:25,720
Speaker 2: with crazy Shorts in the comments. I want touchdowns from

1482
01:14:25,760 --> 01:14:28,599
Speaker 2: these running backs, and I want both of them. Kyen

1483
01:14:28,640 --> 01:14:32,000
Speaker 2: Williams minus one ten touchdown in seven of the last eight.

1484
01:14:32,040 --> 01:14:34,760
Speaker 2: You're giving me that at even money? Yes? Please? And

1485
01:14:34,800 --> 01:14:37,599
Speaker 2: Blake Corum has scored a touchdown in four straight. He's

1486
01:14:37,600 --> 01:14:41,160
Speaker 2: plus one fifty five at DraftKings two touchdowns for Coorum

1487
01:14:41,400 --> 01:14:43,400
Speaker 2: fourteen to one. Just a little nibble on that and

1488
01:14:43,439 --> 01:14:46,519
Speaker 2: then kind of a fun one. I think both guys

1489
01:14:46,560 --> 01:14:49,880
Speaker 2: to get a touchdown, play it together because you're gonna

1490
01:14:49,920 --> 01:14:52,639
Speaker 2: get a little negative correlation boost. You're getting a four

1491
01:14:52,680 --> 01:14:56,680
Speaker 2: to one at DraftKings. Both those guys have scored a

1492
01:14:56,720 --> 01:14:59,519
Speaker 2: touchdown in three of the last four games. There are

1493
01:14:59,600 --> 01:15:03,320
Speaker 2: no Adams. That means more touchdowns to go around for

1494
01:15:03,479 --> 01:15:06,439
Speaker 2: not Devonte Adams out there. So I just think running

1495
01:15:06,439 --> 01:15:08,680
Speaker 2: back touchdowns in a game where the Rams are going

1496
01:15:08,760 --> 01:15:11,200
Speaker 2: to score a bunch of touchdowns seems like the way

1497
01:15:11,200 --> 01:15:13,679
Speaker 2: to go. If you want to side, I would certainly

1498
01:15:13,760 --> 01:15:16,640
Speaker 2: go Rams or nothing. I make it Rams nine and

1499
01:15:16,680 --> 01:15:19,120
Speaker 2: a half, So at seven, I don't mind the play.

1500
01:15:19,600 --> 01:15:22,240
Speaker 2: I do wonder if they come out maybe a little

1501
01:15:22,280 --> 01:15:25,200
Speaker 2: bit slow. You just lost your shot the one seed.

1502
01:15:25,400 --> 01:15:27,840
Speaker 2: It's kind of a bummer of a start. Can you

1503
01:15:27,920 --> 01:15:30,439
Speaker 2: wait and play live below the seven? Can you maybe

1504
01:15:30,439 --> 01:15:32,400
Speaker 2: play just a second half line? The Rams are ten

1505
01:15:32,439 --> 01:15:36,080
Speaker 2: and five ats second half, I'd rather do that, but

1506
01:15:36,160 --> 01:15:37,920
Speaker 2: I don't mind a Rams angle as well. Like the

1507
01:15:38,000 --> 01:15:41,080
Speaker 2: Rams get home, get probably the five seed. If they

1508
01:15:41,120 --> 01:15:44,400
Speaker 2: lock this one up and then probably maybe rest next

1509
01:15:44,479 --> 01:15:47,439
Speaker 2: week wouldn't be surprising to me, but I think they

1510
01:15:47,520 --> 01:15:49,920
Speaker 2: get the job done here. Let's get some running back

1511
01:15:49,960 --> 01:15:52,320
Speaker 2: touchdowns Kyrine Korham hopefully both.

1512
01:15:53,200 --> 01:15:55,320
Speaker 3: Yeah. My only scared point on the running backs of

1513
01:15:55,360 --> 01:15:56,840
Speaker 3: the Rams is like, are they going to try to

1514
01:15:56,880 --> 01:16:00,240
Speaker 3: give Stafford some stats? Like does that matter to that?

1515
01:16:00,240 --> 01:16:03,400
Speaker 3: And like they know he's on the verge of the MVP.

1516
01:16:03,520 --> 01:16:06,080
Speaker 3: It feels like a very stupid thing to consider, but

1517
01:16:06,200 --> 01:16:09,000
Speaker 3: at this point the season, like the Rams should win

1518
01:16:09,040 --> 01:16:12,439
Speaker 3: this game, and that feels like something they might attack

1519
01:16:13,160 --> 01:16:16,000
Speaker 3: at this point, even without Devonte in the red zone,

1520
01:16:16,160 --> 01:16:19,080
Speaker 3: So that would be my only thought process there. I

1521
01:16:19,120 --> 01:16:21,680
Speaker 3: do see Kyrine at plus money in the market, so

1522
01:16:22,200 --> 01:16:25,040
Speaker 3: I think that definitely has some value to it. Blake

1523
01:16:25,120 --> 01:16:28,960
Speaker 3: KRM is just a little short, like usually we've seen

1524
01:16:29,040 --> 01:16:31,920
Speaker 3: him at higher odds to score touchdowns, but because he's

1525
01:16:31,960 --> 01:16:35,120
Speaker 3: been so efficient in that market recently, that number has

1526
01:16:35,160 --> 01:16:38,200
Speaker 3: really come down. So anything at plus money I'm all

1527
01:16:38,240 --> 01:16:40,920
Speaker 3: over Kyron. I completely get it. Like usually in that

1528
01:16:41,040 --> 01:16:44,160
Speaker 3: goal line slot, they're not gonna sneak it with Stafford

1529
01:16:44,200 --> 01:16:46,800
Speaker 3: and it's usually Kyrin he gets the carries. So I

1530
01:16:46,840 --> 01:16:49,559
Speaker 3: completely think that is a good angle. My bets for

1531
01:16:49,640 --> 01:16:51,800
Speaker 3: this game. Oh, let me give you two trends that

1532
01:16:51,880 --> 01:16:54,360
Speaker 3: I thought are kind of interesting. So McVeigh is thirty

1533
01:16:54,360 --> 01:16:56,599
Speaker 3: two and nineteen against the spread off of a loss.

1534
01:16:56,760 --> 01:16:59,040
Speaker 3: It's the best record for any coach since McVay entered

1535
01:16:59,040 --> 01:17:02,000
Speaker 3: the league in twenty seven. Team usually pretty good. Also,

1536
01:17:02,479 --> 01:17:04,639
Speaker 3: usually not laying seven on the road, so a bit

1537
01:17:04,640 --> 01:17:07,519
Speaker 3: of a different spot there. And then I kind of

1538
01:17:07,520 --> 01:17:09,360
Speaker 3: have to get this out of the way because the

1539
01:17:09,479 --> 01:17:12,280
Speaker 3: stigma of Kirk Cousins on Monday Night Football. Yes, he

1540
01:17:12,360 --> 01:17:15,519
Speaker 3: did start zero to nine straight up and against the spread,

1541
01:17:15,800 --> 01:17:18,040
Speaker 3: but that has really changed. He's won five of his

1542
01:17:18,120 --> 01:17:20,640
Speaker 3: last six starts on Monday Night Football, and with the

1543
01:17:20,640 --> 01:17:23,519
Speaker 3: Falcons he's two and zero. So this is not the

1544
01:17:23,560 --> 01:17:25,880
Speaker 3: old Kirk, at least in terms of that trend that

1545
01:17:26,240 --> 01:17:29,080
Speaker 3: kind of made its way around everywhere. He's been pretty

1546
01:17:29,080 --> 01:17:33,439
Speaker 3: decent lately. My two angles on this game is I

1547
01:17:33,520 --> 01:17:36,479
Speaker 3: like Algier to score a touchdown, usually when they get

1548
01:17:36,479 --> 01:17:40,040
Speaker 3: into the red zone. I can understand that Bijon gets

1549
01:17:40,040 --> 01:17:42,800
Speaker 3: a lot of the receiving work and gets a lot

1550
01:17:42,800 --> 01:17:45,320
Speaker 3: of the long carries, but I think Algier at over

1551
01:17:45,320 --> 01:17:47,840
Speaker 3: two to one, I can see some work there when

1552
01:17:47,840 --> 01:17:50,040
Speaker 3: they get into the red zone. And then I also

1553
01:17:50,200 --> 01:17:51,720
Speaker 3: kind of have a feeling they're going to stall a

1554
01:17:51,760 --> 01:17:55,040
Speaker 3: little bit with this Rams defense. So I looked at Zane.

1555
01:17:55,800 --> 01:17:58,440
Speaker 3: I really like the over six and a half kickpoints,

1556
01:17:58,800 --> 01:18:01,800
Speaker 3: but if that's gonna hit, you're most likely also going

1557
01:18:01,880 --> 01:18:03,479
Speaker 3: to hit the over one and a half field goals

1558
01:18:03,920 --> 01:18:05,880
Speaker 3: or the Falcons are gonna need a lot of touchdowns

1559
01:18:05,880 --> 01:18:08,800
Speaker 3: in this game. So I like the Algier touchdown and

1560
01:18:08,840 --> 01:18:11,840
Speaker 3: I like the Zane Gonzales work here, so we will

1561
01:18:11,840 --> 01:18:14,439
Speaker 3: see how that goes. But any thoughts on either of those.

1562
01:18:15,360 --> 01:18:17,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the Algierra look as well. I think

1563
01:18:17,800 --> 01:18:19,800
Speaker 2: we're gonna get plenty of scoring both the ways. I

1564
01:18:20,360 --> 01:18:22,679
Speaker 2: do think the back door could be open for Atlanta,

1565
01:18:22,720 --> 01:18:24,320
Speaker 2: which is why I would love to try to get

1566
01:18:24,560 --> 01:18:27,120
Speaker 2: something below the key number if you can, But that

1567
01:18:27,160 --> 01:18:29,479
Speaker 2: could be a help to Algier and Zane Gonzales bets

1568
01:18:29,479 --> 01:18:29,920
Speaker 2: as well.

1569
01:18:30,520 --> 01:18:31,960
Speaker 3: All right, if you want to tell some of these

1570
01:18:32,000 --> 01:18:33,840
Speaker 3: Monday Night football bets, make sure to look for the

1571
01:18:33,920 --> 01:18:37,160
Speaker 3: quick slip link in the podcast in video description, or

1572
01:18:37,400 --> 01:18:40,759
Speaker 3: go to actionework dot com slash bet now. Our producer

1573
01:18:40,840 --> 01:18:43,360
Speaker 3: David has already listed all the bets there for you.

1574
01:18:43,479 --> 01:18:47,519
Speaker 3: Simply click and throw it into your sports book. All right, Brandon,

1575
01:18:48,200 --> 01:18:50,519
Speaker 3: we've teased them long enough. What are you looking for

1576
01:18:50,520 --> 01:18:53,600
Speaker 3: for your hot reads for Week eighteen, last week of

1577
01:18:53,640 --> 01:18:59,000
Speaker 3: the regular season hot right day on ice rights, ice

1578
01:18:59,040 --> 01:19:01,400
Speaker 3: cream hot.

1579
01:19:04,520 --> 01:19:06,280
Speaker 2: I can tell you what I'm not looking for. I'm

1580
01:19:06,320 --> 01:19:09,200
Speaker 2: not looking for a Cardinals over anymore. We have been

1581
01:19:09,240 --> 01:19:12,200
Speaker 2: hooked on Cardinals over by the half point twice in

1582
01:19:12,200 --> 01:19:14,439
Speaker 2: a row. Even though we got the hot reed, we

1583
01:19:14,479 --> 01:19:17,759
Speaker 2: got the CLV by a couple points. We get hooked Anyways.

1584
01:19:17,800 --> 01:19:21,200
Speaker 2: We're seventeen and fifteen on the season. We're not finishing

1585
01:19:21,280 --> 01:19:23,160
Speaker 2: five hundred. I'm not giving you two picks. I need

1586
01:19:23,160 --> 01:19:25,719
Speaker 2: three picks. We're gonna risk it for the biscuit. Here's

1587
01:19:25,760 --> 01:19:27,560
Speaker 2: the first one. I'm getting crazy with this one, a

1588
01:19:27,560 --> 01:19:30,240
Speaker 2: little bit kind of tease this earlier. I'm gonna give

1589
01:19:30,280 --> 01:19:33,840
Speaker 2: you a four team money line parlay at plus one

1590
01:19:33,880 --> 01:19:37,639
Speaker 2: oh eight. It's the AFC Favorites parlay. We talked about

1591
01:19:37,680 --> 01:19:40,240
Speaker 2: those teams that need to win and get into the playoffs,

1592
01:19:40,520 --> 01:19:44,000
Speaker 2: not ats, just the money line. Denver to get the

1593
01:19:44,040 --> 01:19:47,800
Speaker 2: one seed, New England, two seed, Jacksonville three, Houston five.

1594
01:19:48,400 --> 01:19:51,400
Speaker 2: All four of those money line parlay. The case really is,

1595
01:19:51,400 --> 01:19:52,720
Speaker 2: I don't need to tell you why they're gonna win

1596
01:19:52,720 --> 01:19:54,800
Speaker 2: their games. Let me tell you why they need to win.

1597
01:19:55,000 --> 01:19:57,800
Speaker 2: On the playoff schedule, Denver clinches the one seed with

1598
01:19:57,840 --> 01:20:00,679
Speaker 2: the win at home against the Chargers, charge are mostly

1599
01:20:00,680 --> 01:20:02,880
Speaker 2: locked into the seven anyways. I think they rest, so

1600
01:20:02,880 --> 01:20:06,000
Speaker 2: that's Denver. New England clinch is the two seed with

1601
01:20:06,080 --> 01:20:08,400
Speaker 2: the home win against Miami. They might still get the

1602
01:20:08,400 --> 01:20:11,400
Speaker 2: one seed, not in this scenario, because Denver had to

1603
01:20:11,400 --> 01:20:13,720
Speaker 2: lose for that to happen, but those games are simultaneous,

1604
01:20:14,040 --> 01:20:15,880
Speaker 2: so New England has to go get the win as well.

1605
01:20:16,439 --> 01:20:20,040
Speaker 2: Dito Jacksonville. They clinch division and a home game with

1606
01:20:20,120 --> 01:20:22,840
Speaker 2: the home win against the Titans. A loss drops them

1607
01:20:22,880 --> 01:20:26,040
Speaker 2: to the six or even seven seed, potentially not something

1608
01:20:26,040 --> 01:20:27,439
Speaker 2: they want to mess with. I think they get the

1609
01:20:27,520 --> 01:20:31,160
Speaker 2: job done. And then Houston home against Riley Leonards Colts

1610
01:20:31,200 --> 01:20:34,639
Speaker 2: no longer Philip Rivers. That gets them either the five seed,

1611
01:20:34,640 --> 01:20:37,120
Speaker 2: which is the path we talked about, or the three

1612
01:20:37,160 --> 01:20:40,040
Speaker 2: seed and a home game. Those are all four teams

1613
01:20:40,360 --> 01:20:44,320
Speaker 2: batter teams at home, playing against teams where it's mostly

1614
01:20:44,360 --> 01:20:47,120
Speaker 2: a meaningless game. Like you said, teams that really ought

1615
01:20:47,160 --> 01:20:49,720
Speaker 2: to want to lose. For the most part, I'll take

1616
01:20:49,800 --> 01:20:53,080
Speaker 2: all four together at plus one to eight that is

1617
01:20:53,120 --> 01:20:55,400
Speaker 2: in the market at just barely above evan odds. And

1618
01:20:55,439 --> 01:20:58,120
Speaker 2: if you want to get a little crazy, if all

1619
01:20:58,200 --> 01:21:02,280
Speaker 2: those things happen, look the four seed game irrelevant. That's

1620
01:21:02,320 --> 01:21:05,240
Speaker 2: locked away. There's only one other playoff team we talked

1621
01:21:05,240 --> 01:21:08,559
Speaker 2: about a little bit. If those all happen, the Texans

1622
01:21:08,560 --> 01:21:11,080
Speaker 2: lock into the five, the top seeds locked, the Chargers

1623
01:21:11,080 --> 01:21:14,840
Speaker 2: lock into the seven. The Bills game becomes irrelevant. So

1624
01:21:16,120 --> 01:21:19,360
Speaker 2: take those four money line, add a Jets money line

1625
01:21:19,680 --> 01:21:22,880
Speaker 2: just in case the Bills totally blow that one. Jets

1626
01:21:22,880 --> 01:21:24,880
Speaker 2: are at plus four to seventy, add them into the

1627
01:21:24,880 --> 01:21:28,360
Speaker 2: parlay plus ten thirty eight, so you get like a

1628
01:21:28,439 --> 01:21:30,640
Speaker 2: ten to one. Just a nibble, like a tenth of

1629
01:21:30,680 --> 01:21:33,320
Speaker 2: a unit on there, just in case. I don't mind

1630
01:21:33,360 --> 01:21:36,200
Speaker 2: looking at some of these, like, you know, the Cardinals

1631
01:21:36,400 --> 01:21:38,519
Speaker 2: against the Rams. What if the Rams just don't try,

1632
01:21:38,600 --> 01:21:40,920
Speaker 2: Like we're gonna get some games where the teams just

1633
01:21:41,000 --> 01:21:44,080
Speaker 2: call off the dogs midway. You always get some weird

1634
01:21:44,120 --> 01:21:47,240
Speaker 2: outcome in Week eighteen, So put a little bit on

1635
01:21:47,360 --> 01:21:50,360
Speaker 2: the Jets being the weird outcome. Hopefully no weird outcomes

1636
01:21:50,600 --> 01:21:54,599
Speaker 2: for Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, Texans. That four is our main

1637
01:21:54,640 --> 01:21:56,160
Speaker 2: parlay at plus one oh eight.

1638
01:21:57,080 --> 01:21:59,800
Speaker 3: I like it. I mean I was trying to punch

1639
01:22:00,120 --> 01:22:03,720
Speaker 3: hole in one of these games where I maybe would

1640
01:22:03,800 --> 01:22:07,040
Speaker 3: see an issue or maybe like the one that stuck

1641
01:22:07,040 --> 01:22:09,559
Speaker 3: out the stead out the most from the others. Maybe

1642
01:22:09,600 --> 01:22:12,920
Speaker 3: it's the Broncos, like maybe Harbaugh pulls some bs and

1643
01:22:13,040 --> 01:22:14,880
Speaker 3: is able to stay in that game and give Denver

1644
01:22:14,920 --> 01:22:17,599
Speaker 3: troubles since Denver only plays close games, it seems like

1645
01:22:17,960 --> 01:22:20,519
Speaker 3: but I feel like in anything over even seems like

1646
01:22:20,520 --> 01:22:21,040
Speaker 3: a good play.

1647
01:22:21,320 --> 01:22:21,559
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1648
01:22:21,840 --> 01:22:23,679
Speaker 2: To me, I try to do the same thing because

1649
01:22:23,760 --> 01:22:27,439
Speaker 2: look fourteen money line parlay banking on the sure thing

1650
01:22:27,640 --> 01:22:30,000
Speaker 2: at Evana, it's not a good way to build your

1651
01:22:30,040 --> 01:22:33,639
Speaker 2: house with the betting line. But to me, in New England,

1652
01:22:33,680 --> 01:22:35,479
Speaker 2: Miami is the one that I was like, well, I

1653
01:22:35,520 --> 01:22:37,560
Speaker 2: don't know, but if it was in Miami, I'd be

1654
01:22:37,600 --> 01:22:40,320
Speaker 2: a lot more hesitant. In New England cannot win games

1655
01:22:40,360 --> 01:22:42,200
Speaker 2: in Miami, as it was like a given trend year

1656
01:22:42,200 --> 01:22:45,599
Speaker 2: after year. They're all home games too, and it's really

1657
01:22:45,680 --> 01:22:48,479
Speaker 2: hard to see. Miami's pass defense is so bast that's

1658
01:22:48,560 --> 01:22:52,160
Speaker 2: up perfectly for New England Jacksonville against Tennessee. Jacksonville shut

1659
01:22:52,160 --> 01:22:54,879
Speaker 2: out Tennessee the last time they played. How is Tennessee

1660
01:22:54,880 --> 01:22:58,000
Speaker 2: going to score in that game? Houston's defensive line against

1661
01:22:58,120 --> 01:23:00,920
Speaker 2: Ridley Leonard making his first start, Like, I can make

1662
01:23:00,960 --> 01:23:03,360
Speaker 2: the case for why these games seem so gettable. So

1663
01:23:03,800 --> 01:23:05,559
Speaker 2: I probably will do that in the pick six when

1664
01:23:05,600 --> 01:23:07,160
Speaker 2: we get to that in a few days, and on

1665
01:23:07,200 --> 01:23:10,439
Speaker 2: our best bets. Second pick and third pick come from

1666
01:23:10,479 --> 01:23:13,880
Speaker 2: the same game. You already know Steelers Ravens, and you

1667
01:23:13,920 --> 01:23:16,600
Speaker 2: know how we're doing it. Play the Hits, unders and

1668
01:23:16,760 --> 01:23:20,880
Speaker 2: underdogs in Tomlin versus Harbaugh. So under there's still forty

1669
01:23:20,920 --> 01:23:22,320
Speaker 2: three and a half out there, forty two and a

1670
01:23:22,360 --> 01:23:26,000
Speaker 2: half at most books. This only goes that direction. Last

1671
01:23:26,000 --> 01:23:29,400
Speaker 2: three matches forty two or above, but last eleven matchups

1672
01:23:29,720 --> 01:23:32,599
Speaker 2: thirty four point five points a game in this matchup.

1673
01:23:32,880 --> 01:23:36,240
Speaker 2: These are low scoring, grimy, ugly games. It's Sunday night,

1674
01:23:36,360 --> 01:23:39,440
Speaker 2: is gonna be cold, It's gonna be wintery. Both defenses

1675
01:23:39,439 --> 01:23:44,080
Speaker 2: are trending up. Both offenses are unreliable, especially Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's

1676
01:23:44,120 --> 01:23:48,000
Speaker 2: defense importantly top five by DV at home, bottom five

1677
01:23:48,080 --> 01:23:51,040
Speaker 2: on the road, huge delta. It matters a lot to

1678
01:23:51,080 --> 01:23:54,080
Speaker 2: me that this is in Pittsburgh. Give me the under

1679
01:23:54,400 --> 01:23:57,720
Speaker 2: I think we get a blustery classic Steelers Ravens sort

1680
01:23:57,760 --> 01:24:02,040
Speaker 2: of outcome, and then Steelers is again. There's one plus

1681
01:24:02,040 --> 01:24:03,680
Speaker 2: three and a half still in the market. He'pefully can

1682
01:24:03,680 --> 01:24:05,880
Speaker 2: grab it. Otherwise I don't mind the three. You want

1683
01:24:05,920 --> 01:24:08,719
Speaker 2: to get the key number. I think it finishes below

1684
01:24:08,760 --> 01:24:12,679
Speaker 2: the key. In this rivalry, you always take the underdog,

1685
01:24:12,800 --> 01:24:15,360
Speaker 2: especially if it's three or above. Ten of the last

1686
01:24:15,400 --> 01:24:19,120
Speaker 2: twelve meetings one score games, Pittsburgh actually won nine of

1687
01:24:19,160 --> 01:24:23,320
Speaker 2: the twelve, and this is a classic classic raw ra

1688
01:24:23,840 --> 01:24:27,280
Speaker 2: underdog Mike Tomlin spot, you love all those trends sixty

1689
01:24:27,280 --> 01:24:30,320
Speaker 2: eight percent week five eight forward week five and a

1690
01:24:30,320 --> 01:24:34,519
Speaker 2: forward as underdog trend better as a home team, check

1691
01:24:34,880 --> 01:24:38,400
Speaker 2: in a division, check after a lost check, underdog of

1692
01:24:38,439 --> 01:24:40,840
Speaker 2: seven or last check. All the things I want in

1693
01:24:40,880 --> 01:24:44,679
Speaker 2: a Tomlin underagg spot. This is it home underdog under

1694
01:24:44,760 --> 01:24:48,599
Speaker 2: seven or equal to seven nineteen six and one seventy

1695
01:24:48,640 --> 01:24:51,559
Speaker 2: six percent ats seventy four percent as a division underdog,

1696
01:24:51,920 --> 01:24:55,080
Speaker 2: and then maybe my favorite trend as a better you

1697
01:24:55,360 --> 01:24:59,120
Speaker 2: just take the underdog in Tomlin versus Harbor twenty five

1698
01:24:59,360 --> 01:25:03,360
Speaker 2: seven and three ats seventy eight percent, including if the

1699
01:25:03,439 --> 01:25:08,280
Speaker 2: underdog is three or more points as an underdog nearly invincible,

1700
01:25:08,360 --> 01:25:13,479
Speaker 2: twenty three and three ats for the dog eighty seven

1701
01:25:13,560 --> 01:25:16,960
Speaker 2: percent hit rate. That is an unreal trend for over

1702
01:25:17,000 --> 01:25:19,760
Speaker 2: a decade of matchups, and again, this might be our

1703
01:25:19,800 --> 01:25:22,879
Speaker 2: last shot to bet this trend if things go sideways

1704
01:25:22,920 --> 01:25:25,839
Speaker 2: for one of these coaches here, even taking the coaches

1705
01:25:25,880 --> 01:25:29,920
Speaker 2: out of it, If North underdog's Week fourteen forward sixty percent,

1706
01:25:30,000 --> 01:25:33,080
Speaker 2: that's just been a good spot to play and team

1707
01:25:33,120 --> 01:25:36,599
Speaker 2: agnostic teams like Baltimore coming off a win by seventeen

1708
01:25:36,680 --> 01:25:39,599
Speaker 2: or more as underdogs of seven or less thirty six

1709
01:25:39,640 --> 01:25:42,760
Speaker 2: percent ats in the next game since twenty ten, so

1710
01:25:42,800 --> 01:25:45,080
Speaker 2: a cell high spot on Baltimore. I know they just

1711
01:25:45,160 --> 01:25:48,000
Speaker 2: looked good. They have a look good for three months

1712
01:25:48,000 --> 01:25:51,360
Speaker 2: before that. I know how bad Pittsburgh looked. That's when

1713
01:25:51,360 --> 01:25:54,120
Speaker 2: you have to bet Pittsburgh. I know Lamar is rested.

1714
01:25:54,520 --> 01:25:56,000
Speaker 2: I don't have an answer to that, but he hasn't

1715
01:25:56,000 --> 01:25:59,559
Speaker 2: been healthy for the entire stent. Anyways, Pittsburgh plus three

1716
01:25:59,560 --> 01:26:01,800
Speaker 2: and a half while it's there, three, If it's all

1717
01:26:01,840 --> 01:26:03,880
Speaker 2: you can get, this should be below the key. I

1718
01:26:03,920 --> 01:26:06,400
Speaker 2: basically make this a coin flip. This is all the

1719
01:26:06,400 --> 01:26:09,360
Speaker 2: makings to me, have a low scoring, ugly kick out

1720
01:26:09,400 --> 01:26:12,439
Speaker 2: the buzzer into the playoffs. That's what we're getting here.

1721
01:26:12,840 --> 01:26:16,360
Speaker 2: I have to play all the trends at home. Pittsburgh underdog, Tomlin,

1722
01:26:16,439 --> 01:26:19,360
Speaker 2: spot raw Rah, give me the stealers, give me the

1723
01:26:19,439 --> 01:26:21,559
Speaker 2: under It's the right way down the hot read for

1724
01:26:21,600 --> 01:26:23,720
Speaker 2: the year. We live by the trends, we die by

1725
01:26:23,720 --> 01:26:24,240
Speaker 2: the trends.

1726
01:26:24,880 --> 01:26:27,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I guess at this point without DK, good

1727
01:26:27,280 --> 01:26:29,880
Speaker 3: for the under and just hope that Pittsburgh figures out

1728
01:26:29,920 --> 01:26:32,760
Speaker 3: a way to kind of move their offense forward. But yeah,

1729
01:26:32,800 --> 01:26:36,320
Speaker 3: without DK, forty three and a half feels a tad hot.

1730
01:26:38,360 --> 01:26:41,600
Speaker 2: Thank you.

1731
01:26:45,800 --> 01:26:48,240
Speaker 3: All right, before we wrap up, let's hear from Patrick

1732
01:26:48,240 --> 01:26:51,400
Speaker 3: Everson from Vegas Insiders and how things looked in Las Vegas.

1733
01:26:51,560 --> 01:26:54,120
Speaker 4: All right, Evan, thanks a lot, very interesting week.

1734
01:26:54,479 --> 01:26:57,439
Speaker 1: There was obviously a lot of important games, a lot

1735
01:26:57,439 --> 01:27:00,160
Speaker 1: of meaningless games, some games where it was important to

1736
01:27:00,200 --> 01:27:02,960
Speaker 1: one team and completely meaningless to the other, so a

1737
01:27:03,000 --> 01:27:06,000
Speaker 1: little bit of both. I would just say, in talking

1738
01:27:06,040 --> 01:27:08,960
Speaker 1: with oddsmakers across the country and here in Las Vegas

1739
01:27:09,000 --> 01:27:11,760
Speaker 1: over the last few days that really it came down

1740
01:27:11,760 --> 01:27:15,080
Speaker 1: to three games that mattered the most, whether.

1741
01:27:14,880 --> 01:27:17,240
Speaker 4: It was from the bookmaker's perspective or the better perspective.

1742
01:27:17,280 --> 01:27:20,320
Speaker 1: The first was Christmas Day, Detroit Lions seven and a

1743
01:27:20,360 --> 01:27:23,800
Speaker 1: half point favorites losing outright to the Minnesota Vikings blew

1744
01:27:23,880 --> 01:27:27,000
Speaker 1: up all the favorite money line parlays, and there were

1745
01:27:27,640 --> 01:27:29,360
Speaker 1: tons of favorite money line.

1746
01:27:29,160 --> 01:27:30,280
Speaker 4: Parlays on Christmas Day.

1747
01:27:30,280 --> 01:27:32,280
Speaker 1: They were running the Cowboys to the Lions to the

1748
01:27:32,320 --> 01:27:35,920
Speaker 1: Broncos on the money line, and the Minnesota Vikings blew

1749
01:27:35,960 --> 01:27:38,559
Speaker 1: all that up, which gave the bookmakers a huge early

1750
01:27:38,720 --> 01:27:42,160
Speaker 1: edge on the week. Then on Sunday that Bill's Eagles game.

1751
01:27:42,320 --> 01:27:46,080
Speaker 1: For the most part, books needed the Eagles, probably preferred

1752
01:27:46,080 --> 01:27:48,720
Speaker 1: the Eagles outright. It was a pretty short number, and

1753
01:27:48,880 --> 01:27:51,439
Speaker 1: they got the Eagles outright. The Bills not only didn't

1754
01:27:51,439 --> 01:27:54,320
Speaker 1: cover the three point spread, but actually were down thirteen

1755
01:27:54,360 --> 01:27:55,559
Speaker 1: to nothing into the fourth quarter.

1756
01:27:55,680 --> 01:27:57,599
Speaker 4: Ralliedly almost wanted on.

1757
01:27:57,520 --> 01:27:59,679
Speaker 1: A two point conversion, but the Eagles win thirteen twelve,

1758
01:28:00,040 --> 01:28:02,640
Speaker 1: and that was a result that sat well with the

1759
01:28:02,640 --> 01:28:05,200
Speaker 1: bookmakers as well. So that was two big ones that

1760
01:28:05,280 --> 01:28:08,280
Speaker 1: fell the bookmaker's direction. And then of course you had

1761
01:28:08,280 --> 01:28:12,640
Speaker 1: this Sunday night game, which was just spectacular theater and

1762
01:28:12,720 --> 01:28:16,280
Speaker 1: a ton of scoring. It was the anti Bill's Eagles game,

1763
01:28:16,840 --> 01:28:19,559
Speaker 1: both marquee matchups, but there was a lot of scoring

1764
01:28:19,640 --> 01:28:21,800
Speaker 1: Sunday Night, as you all know by now for sure.

1765
01:28:22,560 --> 01:28:26,000
Speaker 1: And what bookmakers generally aren't looking for out of the

1766
01:28:26,000 --> 01:28:29,360
Speaker 1: Sunday night game or any prime time standalone game, any

1767
01:28:29,400 --> 01:28:33,880
Speaker 1: standalone game, period, is a ton of scoring because what

1768
01:28:34,000 --> 01:28:36,559
Speaker 1: betters are prone to do, especially the public betting masses

1769
01:28:36,600 --> 01:28:39,599
Speaker 1: these days, they like to get in on the same

1770
01:28:39,640 --> 01:28:44,680
Speaker 1: game parlays, and particularly on anytime touchdown parlays. And when

1771
01:28:44,720 --> 01:28:49,599
Speaker 1: you get twelve touchdowns scored by nine different players, anytime

1772
01:28:49,640 --> 01:28:51,720
Speaker 1: parlays are going to cash, you know there's going to

1773
01:28:51,760 --> 01:28:53,720
Speaker 1: be a lot more of them that get through, and

1774
01:28:53,760 --> 01:28:56,240
Speaker 1: that liability is going to add up. So the books

1775
01:28:56,560 --> 01:29:00,640
Speaker 1: got beat up on that result. In mind that the

1776
01:29:00,720 --> 01:29:03,280
Speaker 1: Niners were three and a half point favorites up until

1777
01:29:03,320 --> 01:29:06,840
Speaker 1: shortly before kickoff and then one by four. So if

1778
01:29:06,880 --> 01:29:09,639
Speaker 1: betters were on the favorite there, which they undoubtedly were

1779
01:29:09,920 --> 01:29:12,439
Speaker 1: in a lot of cases, you get the Niners covering,

1780
01:29:12,479 --> 01:29:15,639
Speaker 1: You get all these same game parlays cashing, you get

1781
01:29:15,680 --> 01:29:19,520
Speaker 1: all these overs on everything cashing, and including the score obviously,

1782
01:29:19,600 --> 01:29:20,679
Speaker 1: way way way.

1783
01:29:20,479 --> 01:29:21,880
Speaker 4: Over in an eighty point game.

1784
01:29:21,920 --> 01:29:23,600
Speaker 1: With a fifty one and a half point total, it

1785
01:29:23,640 --> 01:29:25,840
Speaker 1: was almost over at halftime at twenty eight twenty one.

1786
01:29:26,439 --> 01:29:29,880
Speaker 1: The betters made up a lot of ground on the

1787
01:29:29,880 --> 01:29:32,080
Speaker 1: book makers on Sunday night, a very very big night.

1788
01:29:32,120 --> 01:29:34,799
Speaker 1: One oddsmaker told me that was the third best result

1789
01:29:34,880 --> 01:29:38,479
Speaker 1: of the year for their customers. One national oddsmaker said that,

1790
01:29:39,000 --> 01:29:42,080
Speaker 1: and here in Vegas a couple of oddsmakers also intimated

1791
01:29:42,240 --> 01:29:45,080
Speaker 1: that was a really good result for the betters, and

1792
01:29:45,120 --> 01:29:47,240
Speaker 1: in fact, at one book it took them from a

1793
01:29:47,360 --> 01:29:51,280
Speaker 1: modest winning day to a losing day. Looking strictly at

1794
01:29:51,360 --> 01:29:54,080
Speaker 1: some of the Draft Kings numbers on Sunday's games kind

1795
01:29:54,120 --> 01:29:56,200
Speaker 1: of bears this out a little bit. The top three

1796
01:29:56,240 --> 01:30:01,160
Speaker 1: teams against the spread at Draft Kings were the Jaguars, Patriots,

1797
01:30:01,160 --> 01:30:04,799
Speaker 1: and Steelers by number of bets, and then the Steelers, Bills,

1798
01:30:04,840 --> 01:30:08,360
Speaker 1: and Patriots by amount of money on the spread. The

1799
01:30:08,479 --> 01:30:12,880
Speaker 1: Jaguars did cover the spread, just barely. The Patriots obviously rolled,

1800
01:30:12,920 --> 01:30:15,040
Speaker 1: so those were two good outcomes, but the Steelers did not.

1801
01:30:15,600 --> 01:30:18,360
Speaker 1: And the Steelers were again number one in point spread

1802
01:30:18,400 --> 01:30:21,439
Speaker 1: money and did not win. The Bills were number two

1803
01:30:21,479 --> 01:30:24,559
Speaker 1: in point spread money and did not win, so those

1804
01:30:24,560 --> 01:30:27,880
Speaker 1: were outcomes that definitely went in favor of DK. And

1805
01:30:28,200 --> 01:30:32,080
Speaker 1: when you're looking at money line, the Steelers and Bucks

1806
01:30:32,160 --> 01:30:34,240
Speaker 1: where were two of the top three teams in both

1807
01:30:34,240 --> 01:30:36,320
Speaker 1: ticke account and money and the Steelers and Bucks both

1808
01:30:36,360 --> 01:30:40,680
Speaker 1: lost outright. So again kind of a back and forth day.

1809
01:30:40,680 --> 01:30:42,680
Speaker 1: But I imagine TK probably did all right until that

1810
01:30:42,720 --> 01:30:45,600
Speaker 1: Sunday night game. I got imagine that that was a.

1811
01:30:45,240 --> 01:30:47,280
Speaker 4: Big pill for DK to swallow.

1812
01:30:47,680 --> 01:30:50,120
Speaker 1: Now looking to the Monday night game real quickly, it's

1813
01:30:50,240 --> 01:30:52,280
Speaker 1: certainly an important one for the La Rams, although it

1814
01:30:52,320 --> 01:30:54,599
Speaker 1: doesn't sound like they any longer have a shot at

1815
01:30:54,600 --> 01:30:56,080
Speaker 1: the number one seat that's going to go to one

1816
01:30:56,120 --> 01:30:59,679
Speaker 1: of their division rivals. LA is a seven point favorite

1817
01:30:59,720 --> 01:31:03,880
Speaker 1: drafts and it is all Rams seventy eight percent of

1818
01:31:03,960 --> 01:31:07,160
Speaker 1: spread tickets, eighty five percent of spread money. And you

1819
01:31:07,200 --> 01:31:10,240
Speaker 1: can rest assured that if there are moneyline parlays that

1820
01:31:10,320 --> 01:31:13,519
Speaker 1: somehow survived, that did survive Sunday, they're going to run

1821
01:31:13,560 --> 01:31:15,960
Speaker 1: to the Rams on Monday nights. So Draft Kings and

1822
01:31:16,000 --> 01:31:18,800
Speaker 1: others are surely going to be Atlanta Falcons fans to

1823
01:31:18,800 --> 01:31:20,840
Speaker 1: at least cover that number, and they probably really like

1824
01:31:20,880 --> 01:31:24,439
Speaker 1: Atlanta to win that game outright. As far as NFL

1825
01:31:24,479 --> 01:31:27,840
Speaker 1: Week eighteen goes, my opening Odds and Action report for

1826
01:31:27,960 --> 01:31:31,559
Speaker 1: Vegas Insider is live now again Vegas insider dot com.

1827
01:31:31,600 --> 01:31:36,280
Speaker 1: It's got info on all sixteen games, it's got odds

1828
01:31:36,360 --> 01:31:39,719
Speaker 1: maker insights on all the key matchups in the week

1829
01:31:39,760 --> 01:31:42,920
Speaker 1: eighteen slate. So check that out and keep in mind

1830
01:31:42,920 --> 01:31:46,160
Speaker 1: that that updates all week long on every game, multiple

1831
01:31:46,240 --> 01:31:49,840
Speaker 1: updates every game right up until kickoff. So that's a

1832
01:31:49,840 --> 01:31:53,919
Speaker 1: good reference point to see how the odds are developing

1833
01:31:53,920 --> 01:31:54,360
Speaker 1: and how the.

1834
01:31:54,320 --> 01:31:56,160
Speaker 4: Action is developing all week long.

1835
01:31:56,240 --> 01:31:59,040
Speaker 1: So again, check out my NFL Week eighteen Odds and

1836
01:31:59,080 --> 01:32:02,120
Speaker 1: Action Report at guess Insider, and we'll look forward to

1837
01:32:02,120 --> 01:32:03,080
Speaker 1: talking to you next week.

1838
01:32:03,240 --> 01:32:05,040
Speaker 3: All right, that'll do it here on the Action Every

1839
01:32:05,040 --> 01:32:10,560
Speaker 3: podcast for our NFL Week seventeen recap episode presented by DraftKings,

1840
01:32:10,800 --> 01:32:12,559
Speaker 3: give us a like on the YouTube vid before you

1841
01:32:12,600 --> 01:32:15,559
Speaker 3: take off. We always appreciate it. If you haven't yet,

1842
01:32:15,800 --> 01:32:19,120
Speaker 3: check out our new AI quick slip bot on x

1843
01:32:19,280 --> 01:32:22,360
Speaker 3: just tag Playbook at Playbook tell to grab whatever bets

1844
01:32:22,400 --> 01:32:25,760
Speaker 3: you're looking for, like Steelers, maybe the under, and it'll

1845
01:32:25,800 --> 01:32:27,800
Speaker 3: create a quick slip link for you in a matter

1846
01:32:27,880 --> 01:32:31,360
Speaker 3: of seconds. We'll be back for action Island before Monday

1847
01:32:31,400 --> 01:32:33,960
Speaker 3: night's game between the Rams and Falcons right here on

1848
01:32:34,040 --> 01:32:37,120
Speaker 3: Action Hours YouTube page, as well as more best bets

1849
01:32:37,160 --> 01:32:41,400
Speaker 3: from Ba, the six Pack from Raybaon and Stuck Anytime,

1850
01:32:41,439 --> 01:32:45,280
Speaker 3: Touchdowns and more on the podcast feed next week. Thank

1851
01:32:45,320 --> 01:32:48,000
Speaker 3: you for listening, good luck with all your bets, and

1852
01:32:48,120 --> 01:32:54,479
Speaker 3: let's enter week eighteen with motivations.

1853
01:33:06,640 --> 01:33:11,160
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1854
01:33:11,200 --> 01:33:14,000
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1855
01:33:14,000 --> 01:33:17,120
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler