1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: Your tunes about drive on Home of the Black and 2 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 1: Goal Steelers Nation Radio. Come back on Dale Lully. You're 3 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:20,920 Speaker 1: with Matt Williamson and Matt looking here at as we 4 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: get through uh this Monday, um looking at a piece 5 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 1: here on NFL dot com. Or they're talking about betting 6 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 1: tips for the Super Bowl and conference odds and looking 7 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 1: at the They pulled some of their their guys, uh 8 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 1: who cover the NFL mm HM posed a bunch of 9 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 1: different questions to them based on some of the odds 10 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 1: out there. Okay and yeah, So the first question is 11 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: which team is your favorite to play to win? Your 12 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 1: favorite play to win the Super Bowl next season? For 13 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: Aaron Shafts a football side is it's the Eagles at 14 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:05,119 Speaker 1: plus three thousands. Interesting. I don't know that I would 15 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: look at that and say the Eagles have a great 16 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 1: chance to win the super Bowl. I mean, I think 17 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: they have a very good chance to win the division. 18 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 1: I like the way that they are constructed, and the 19 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 1: Steelers just snagged someone out of their front office. I 20 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 1: like their philosophy on building with toughness and lineman. I 21 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 1: just think that quarterback in the playoffs is gonna hold 22 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: you back, you know, I mean, yeah, you're gonna get 23 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: up against a good football team and they're gonna be 24 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 1: able to shut that down. And then one yeah, I mean, 25 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: I can't get last year's game against Tampa and the 26 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 1: playoffs out of my mind. And you need to, like 27 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 1: Tannehill's last game is bad, and you don't want to 28 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 1: just remember the last thing when someone gets eliminated. But 29 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 1: just the way we talked about Todd Bowls in the 30 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: last segment, the way that Todd Bowls played against the 31 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 1: Eagles was unbelievably disrespectful to Jalen Hurts as a passer, 32 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: and he he couldn't beat them at all, could Yeah. 33 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 1: And it wasn't because of weather. It wasn't because you know, 34 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 1: it just couldn't. He couldn't get it done with his arm. 35 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 1: For Eric Moody, who is the ESPN betting analyst or 36 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 1: in one of their analysts, he likes to Broncos at 37 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 1: plus six, I mean it's pretty decent odds. That's a 38 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 1: decent payout. The problem the problem they have are they 39 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 1: are they the best team in that division? Because if 40 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 1: they're not, they're going on the road for the playoffs. 41 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 1: That's about to say, is what if they were in 42 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:35,639 Speaker 1: the Eagles Division. Now that I would feel different about that. Yeah, 43 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 1: I mean if they were even anywhere in the NFC, 44 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 1: including the West, I would say, Denver's going to the playoffs. 45 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 1: I don't know how what they'll do when they get there, 46 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:47,959 Speaker 1: But in the a f C, I give them a 47 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 1: sixty six chance of going to the playoffs. They haven't 48 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 1: been to the playoffs, right, right, right, I mean it's 49 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,400 Speaker 1: been a while. The young head coach. You know, it's 50 00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:59,959 Speaker 1: a tough division where if you go to and four 51 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 1: or in the West, which you know doesn't mean you're bad. 52 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 1: I mean they have a big hurdle just to get 53 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 1: in the dance. Yeah. For Eric Dolan, another ESPN betting analyst, 54 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: it is the Buffalo Bills at plus six fifty. That's 55 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:18,079 Speaker 1: the chalky pick that pays off the least I see 56 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 1: it though, you know, I mean, like just not a 57 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 1: bad it's not bad odds, no, right, alright, Like you're 58 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: still sixty six fifty, which okay, I get. I mean 59 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 1: I'd be shocked if they don't win their division. I'd 60 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: be shocked if they're not hosting a playoff game, if 61 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 1: not the one seed, you know, Buffalo and the in 62 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 1: the playoffs doesn't sound like a fun place to go. 63 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 1: They're not perfect, though, I mean I think that everyone 64 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 1: just scribbles them in stone. Is the number one team 65 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,520 Speaker 1: in power ranks, and they're my number one too, But 66 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 1: I don't know if they're as good as the Chiefs 67 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: were three years ago or whatever. Yeah, and then for 68 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: Tyler Fulgum, who is another ESPN betting analyst, he has 69 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: the raven Is at plus. I like the payoff. I 70 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 1: actually put a buck down on them to win the 71 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 1: Super Bowl two months ago, like before the draft, at 72 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: longer odds, just because the odds are so long, you know. 73 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 1: I mean, I think they're gonna be in the in 74 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 1: the hunt. I mean I get it. I trust Lamar 75 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,160 Speaker 1: a lot more than I trust Hurts in that same vein, 76 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 1: you know, in terms of beating you with the arm, 77 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 1: and you brought that. I know the next day out 78 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 1: of your mouth is well, who's gonna catch the ball? 79 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 1: You know? I mean, then you're not a bit of 80 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 1: a bit of a problem. Yeah, then they're you know, 81 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 1: you're counting a guy like Ronnie Stanley to come back 82 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:38,359 Speaker 1: and be Ronnie Stanley. Um, you know, I'm less worried 83 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:42,039 Speaker 1: about the other guys. Yeah, yeah, I Stanley. I think 84 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 1: there's other guys will be back. Stanley hasn't played football 85 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:47,920 Speaker 1: in two years right now, that's a problem. I mean 86 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 1: even signing Odell or Julio or Will Fuller, they all 87 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: have some big warts or injuries or you know, like 88 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 1: this receiver Cord is not gonna get noticeably better by 89 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:03,239 Speaker 1: opening day. Uh. Their next question is, with the NFC 90 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:06,720 Speaker 1: being perceived the weaker conference, are you looking more at 91 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:10,280 Speaker 1: NFC teams than a f C teams, giving the potential 92 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 1: easier path to the Super Bowl. I would say yes. 93 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: If that's a yes no question, I would say yes. 94 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 1: Here's the thing. Shafts of courses is very analytically based. 95 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:27,359 Speaker 1: Here aces are projections of football outsiders are not actually 96 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:30,559 Speaker 1: dominated by the a f C. Six of the top 97 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,040 Speaker 1: ten teams and projected d v o A or NFC 98 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: teams not a FC teams. Wow, which has nothing to 99 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 1: do with who you play or your division. That's just 100 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:42,679 Speaker 1: their preseason dv o A. He says the the FC 101 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 1: is better throughout the conference. Well, the NFC is more 102 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: separated with teams that look good and teams that look 103 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 1: very bad. Because the five worst teams in d v 104 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: o A projections are NFC teams. See, I don't have 105 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl odds back the last question in front 106 00:05:57,080 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 1: of me, but I have a hunch I would probably 107 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:01,280 Speaker 1: put a buck on Tampa just because I don't see 108 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:04,160 Speaker 1: a lot in their way and I don't think Green 109 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:07,720 Speaker 1: Bay's as good as Tampa. I could see the Rams struggling, 110 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:10,320 Speaker 1: you know, not being a dominant team this year, and 111 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 1: I think get decent odds on the Rams. But I 112 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:16,599 Speaker 1: also heard Aaron Shot, the Football Tider's guy on his 113 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 1: podcasts last week or whatever, and he can't quite figure 114 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 1: it out, but he said d v o A adores 115 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 1: the Vikings right now, maybe yeah, you know, And I 116 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:32,560 Speaker 1: was kind of like, and he's the same things. Like 117 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: every year, there's one that doesn't quite add up, and 118 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 1: I'm not exactly sure why. But they're projecting the Vikes 119 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:42,239 Speaker 1: to throw the ball more than they have more three 120 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 1: receiver sets, you know, get out of the stone ages 121 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 1: offensively a little bit. They have Dalvin Cook projected as 122 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,960 Speaker 1: like the third pick in fantasy. They're expecting a huge 123 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:56,279 Speaker 1: season from him and the defense to be healthier. I 124 00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 1: guess I can understand that, but I never look at 125 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: them in that light. No, I don't either. I don't either. 126 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 1: The next question is the a f C is loaded 127 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 1: this year with so many players signing or being traded 128 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 1: to a f C teams, Which team do you think 129 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 1: has the best value for the to win the a 130 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 1: f C. This is a completely different question. That's a 131 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 1: different For Travis Fulgum, it is the Los Angeles Chargers 132 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 1: at plus eight fifty. That's pretty good. It's not bad. Yeah, yeah, um. 133 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 1: One quick nugget while you're looking that over though, Yes, 134 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 1: Russell Wilson came to the a f C. All these 135 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 1: good things happened, you know, the a f C got 136 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 1: stronger on paper. I just don't know. The change is 137 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:45,320 Speaker 1: always good, especially early in the year. And there's also 138 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 1: some new slash very young coaches in charge of these things. 139 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 1: You know, we didn't mention that with denver Um. Same 140 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: as true from the Chargers second year coach. You know, 141 00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 1: like it wasn't like the game Mike Tomlin Russell, will 142 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 1: you know what I mean a little bit of a 143 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: difference there. Yes. For Dolan, he says, uh, I think 144 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: the Bills win the FC at plus three fifty. He 145 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 1: also had the Bills to win the Super Bowl, so 146 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 1: that's kind of boring their but it's plus it's plus 147 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: three fifty, so you're still positive money on that. Yeah. 148 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 1: The interesting thing he says about it is that after them, 149 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: the teams that have the best odds or the lowest 150 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 1: odds are the Chiefs, the Broncos, the Chargers, and the Browns. Right, 151 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 1: one of these things is not like the others. No, 152 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: I'm not even sure Denver's like the others, but the 153 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: Browns are really not like the others. Has Vegas not 154 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:48,760 Speaker 1: adjusted to this situation at all? I don't know. I'm 155 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: not a betting experts, but can you bet against the 156 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:54,839 Speaker 1: Browns left and right? I mean, I know you can 157 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: bet over underwind totals? You can you go under? Can 158 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:00,719 Speaker 1: you bet them not to win? Of those? A lot 159 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 1: of those are off the board because nobody knows what's 160 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 1: happening with that Brown's quarterback situation. But I think the expectation, 161 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:11,319 Speaker 1: the expectation is that he misses at least half the season, 162 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 1: at least at least I think it's gonna be worse 163 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 1: than that. I mean, you're hearing things like it might 164 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 1: be a hundred different women, you know, right alone, sixties some. 165 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 1: And the thing that I'm not sure we mentioned this, 166 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 1: but I remember saying that weird O t a s 167 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:30,079 Speaker 1: that I had read a headline that the Browns can 168 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: get out of this contract if they so choose, And 169 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: the reasoning behind it, from what I understand, is now 170 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 1: that a new woman's name pop, they can get out 171 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 1: of the contract. So they knew about X amount of women, correct, 172 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 1: and then a new one shows up. That's enough for 173 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 1: them to say we're out you. We're gonna tear this 174 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 1: contract up. Said, right, Houston is not giving you the 175 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 1: picks back. No, it was just then, although there was okay, 176 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:05,680 Speaker 1: DeShawn Watson is a free agent again, back to square 177 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:12,439 Speaker 1: one to sign him. You don't need to conversation. Um, 178 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: I keep referencing these podcasts. I was listening to a 179 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:18,199 Speaker 1: betting one and the one thing they did say about 180 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 1: Vegas odds is they were putting money on all three teams, 181 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:29,679 Speaker 1: the Bengals, Raven Steelers to win the division. Because how 182 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 1: are you framing the Browns are still carrying weight as 183 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:38,319 Speaker 1: though they have Watson, so they're assuming Watson's gonna get 184 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 1: suspended in the Browns are not gonna win division, and 185 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 1: one of those three will, which was enough for them 186 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 1: to still make money even if it's the Bengals who 187 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 1: are the best odds. But if it's Steelers, they make 188 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:52,719 Speaker 1: out like bandits, right right, Yeah, Yeah, I don't know. 189 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:55,280 Speaker 1: I don't even think if the Browns have Watson, I 190 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 1: don't know that they're the favorite. I don't think they're 191 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: the favorite. I think they'd be third best. I still 192 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:04,560 Speaker 1: would put since in Baltimore ahead of them. Finally, for Moody, 193 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 1: he says that the Dolphins provide value in the FC. 194 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 1: I don't see. I don't see the Dolphins is having 195 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 1: a chance to win the f C Championship. It's a 196 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 1: tough sell for me. If you're a very unexperienced head 197 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 1: coach and an unproven quarterback, one of the two you 198 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: can convince me that the Niners catch fire, because with 199 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:31,679 Speaker 1: an unexperienced quarterback, you're gonna have a hard time. Convince 200 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 1: me that that combination can win big in this league 201 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 1: that year. Yeah, rookie head coach. The next question is 202 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:43,000 Speaker 1: the Bengals shocked everyone last season by making a run 203 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: at the Super Bowl. Run to the Super Bowl, is 204 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 1: there a team worth betting on, that worth betting that 205 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 1: could do the same this year. Seth Walters says the 206 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:57,319 Speaker 1: Steelers are forty to one to reach the Super Bowl. 207 00:11:57,720 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 1: They only need one huge break for Kenny pick Att 208 00:11:59,960 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: to be good right away if he is. The receivers 209 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:06,320 Speaker 1: are solid in their defense features some elite players. Well, 210 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 1: I don't even know that you need Kenny Pickett. You 211 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:12,680 Speaker 1: just need a quarterback to be good right away. Really 212 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:17,960 Speaker 1: not to stink. Yeah, just competitive, Yeah, just be top twenties. 213 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 1: Obviously we talked stealers all the time. But if they 214 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:28,439 Speaker 1: have a quarterback slash offense, that's you know, that's good, okay, 215 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:32,559 Speaker 1: you know, not terrible for sure, and stay pretty healthy. 216 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 1: I like their chances of getting the playoffs. And for 217 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 1: this conversation, get to the playoffs. And if you're playing 218 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: well weeks starting to gel. You know that the first 219 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:50,199 Speaker 1: twelve weeks weren't pretty, but you won six of them, 220 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 1: five of them, and now you're starting to come together 221 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:55,240 Speaker 1: as a football team at the right time of year, 222 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 1: which led itself to coaching. I like that bad, you know, 223 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 1: like I would say, you're thinking longer shots. Jacksonville, the 224 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 1: Giants and Jets like I can't paint that picture because 225 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 1: that's where the Bengals were a year ago. You know, 226 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:10,959 Speaker 1: dis draft to chase fourth overall or third overall. But 227 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 1: when you throw the Steelers out there, I may even 228 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 1: throw like the Vikings out there. Back to the old conversation, 229 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 1: if you get those kind of odds, you know, yeah, 230 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:21,680 Speaker 1: I think, I mean, I don't think any team likes 231 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 1: to play the Steelers, never because because of the defense. 232 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 1: I mean, you've got three star quality defensive players that 233 00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 1: are are all at different like they could. That makes 234 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 1: things difficult. So if the offense, if the offense does 235 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 1: anything for them all of a sudden, now you're a 236 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 1: pretty good team. I mean, you know, you know they're 237 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 1: gonna be physical, you know they're gonna be well coached, 238 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 1: you know. I mean there's things that just or without saying, 239 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 1: hard place to play if you're on the road, you know. 240 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 1: For Joe forton Baugh another ESPN betting out on me 241 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,880 Speaker 1: ESPM betting out with the analysts, none of them when 242 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 1: I was there, I mean, and I'm left and right 243 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 1: apparent he likes the Colts at to one, not bad 244 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:09,199 Speaker 1: considering the payoffs pretty strong. Yeah, I mean if it's 245 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 1: kind of a Steelers like situation. Say, you know, he says, look, 246 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 1: they're the best team in the FC South. It's enough, 247 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:18,200 Speaker 1: That's what I wasna say to like, that's enough for 248 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 1: me to take one shot that I think there's a 249 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 1: ninety nineties five strong but very very good percent chance 250 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 1: they get in the playoffs. So they're gonna have a 251 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: home game. You got four games against Houston and Jacksonville. 252 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 1: M the Titans. He says, they're headed for a big 253 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 1: step backward after trading A J. Brown. I can't argue 254 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 1: with that. Agreed, Yeah, I'm not the Titans would not 255 00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 1: be a pick for me. But so they go. Let's 256 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 1: say they go five and one in their division. They 257 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 1: got a good shot and not only going to the playoffs, 258 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 1: but perhaps being a number one seed in the FC 259 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 1: like the Titans were. Right, maybe they're not the best 260 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 1: team in the a f C, but they might have 261 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 1: a buy in home games, right, and that makes a difference. 262 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 1: And I'm not a math or a betting expert, but 263 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 1: you said they're twenty five to one. Yeah, the day 264 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 1: the playoffs open, if they're in it, there'll be better 265 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 1: odds than right, you know, So you kind of make 266 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 1: money there, and I'm sure you can head your bets 267 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 1: or whatever. You know, if they're twelve to one when 268 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 1: it starts, you know, so, I think there's a tremendous 269 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:26,960 Speaker 1: chance that those odds get better for them. Yeah, no, 270 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 1: I do too. Uh. Anita Marks, yet another ESPN betting analysts, 271 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: says the Eagles, I can't go there. Yeah, we talked 272 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 1: about them earlier. I can't get I think there would 273 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: be really hard to play against. I just don't know 274 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:45,480 Speaker 1: that they can win three playoff games. She says, they 275 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: have one of the easiest schedules in the league and 276 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 1: could win twelve games. I'll buy that they could go 277 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 1: five and one in their division. And again they're hard number, 278 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: but yeah, twelve and five, But I think they'll I 279 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 1: think I will probably take their over if it's I'd 280 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 1: probably like died in a half or ten. Again, really 281 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 1: hard to play against. My problem with them is just 282 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 1: when when the going gets tough, I mean, when it's 283 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 1: playoff time. I think they are very limited. Yeah, I mean, 284 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 1: you know, you're gonna have to play the Rams, You're 285 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 1: gonna have to play Tampa, You're gonna have to play right, 286 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:24,640 Speaker 1: You've got the far lesser quarterback in every one of 287 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 1: those situations, and you get by them, you gotta beat 288 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 1: Josh Allen or Mahomes or you know. Yeah, I mean 289 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 1: there's a lot there not seeing it that you have 290 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 1: to climb over top, uh, you know, to do. I 291 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 1: just don't know that that's going to be the case here. Um. 292 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 1: I did want to look at the Football Outsiders d 293 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 1: v o A F I see if they've put their 294 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 1: d v o A out for the year yet, because 295 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 1: I know they had a way too early d v 296 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: o A. They did, and but that was pre draft, 297 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 1: I think. But I'm not sure they put a whole 298 00:16:55,680 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 1: lot of stock in their draft stuff. They did in general. Yeah, 299 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 1: they updated this six six, so it is relatively a 300 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: special day by the way. Yeah right, the big guy's 301 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:17,880 Speaker 1: birtha so this is recent. I guess they did. Factory. Yeah, 302 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 1: the factory in the they have they Dallas number is 303 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 1: the number one team. Again, Shats has said that he 304 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 1: doesn't see the NFC being soft. I don't see Dallas 305 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:31,480 Speaker 1: is the top five team, though I don't either. I 306 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 1: don't either. Buffalo to Tampa Bay three, New England, New 307 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:42,400 Speaker 1: England four. Come on, man, come on, Wow, come on, 308 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: I know one thing they did not defending that, because 309 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:49,160 Speaker 1: that's laughable to me. But one thing that they do 310 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 1: is they will always have New England and Baltimore preseason 311 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 1: special teams rank through the roof, which carries a little 312 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:58,399 Speaker 1: bit of weight. But come on, I mean, you may 313 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 1: have special teams in the league, but at the making 314 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: the fourteen, the Rams are, The Rams are five. San 315 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: Francisco is six. I don't know if I agree with that. 316 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:14,639 Speaker 1: Kansas City seven, Green Bay eight, Seattle, Seattle nine. Come on, uh, 317 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:21,679 Speaker 1: this is six six, not one. This makes no sense whatsoever. 318 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 1: And you know, when we when we trust these are 319 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 1: trusted stats, trusted stats, I can see how can Seattle 320 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:35,399 Speaker 1: be nine? No, they're bad with that quarters situation. I 321 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,400 Speaker 1: think they are the bottom mate, bottom five. They they're 322 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:41,439 Speaker 1: giving their here's the here's the really crazy thing about this. 323 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 1: So they're saying that Seattle right now, they're offensive d 324 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:46,639 Speaker 1: v o A is the seventh best in the league. 325 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 1: How's that The defensive d v o A is twenty one. 326 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:59,200 Speaker 1: I'll buy that is going to be the starter there. Yeah, Well, 327 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 1: here's the thing. Okay, So I'm looking here at the Patriots. 328 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:06,359 Speaker 1: The offensive d v o A is ninth, the defensive 329 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,680 Speaker 1: d v o A is fourth, and the special teams 330 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 1: dB o A goes against your argument is eight. Well, 331 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 1: maybe we should get off that page for now because 332 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:19,440 Speaker 1: I'm not buying any of them. I'm not buying that, 333 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:24,159 Speaker 1: but just for for So, they have the Eagles at okay, 334 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 1: where they have the Steelers all the way down. They 335 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: have them on offense, on defense, and seventeen and special teams. Okay, 336 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:43,639 Speaker 1: I mean those three numbers are defensible to me. I 337 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 1: would take the over on all three when it's all 338 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 1: said and done. Yeah, I mean twenty three offenses it 339 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 1: stands right now. Isn't disrespectful to me if you're you 340 00:19:53,840 --> 00:20:00,680 Speaker 1: don't know the quarterback situation. So the team, the teams 341 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:05,160 Speaker 1: that they have below the Steelers are the Bears offensively 342 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: offensively offensively, the Bears, the Jaguars, Atlanta, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, 343 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 1: and the Giants. Okay, that means Detroit could be pretty 344 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 1: good on offense. They have the Jets ahead of the Steelers. 345 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 1: They have the England ahead of the Steelers. They have 346 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,879 Speaker 1: New England way ahead of this. They have New England 347 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:32,640 Speaker 1: with the top ten offense. I mean would you think 348 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 1: the Steeler offense or Washington's offense right right? Or I 349 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 1: guess you mentioned a couple in the South that are bad. Man, 350 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,679 Speaker 1: I'm not sure that I take Miami's over the Steelers, 351 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 1: and they were, they were right ahead of them. The Jets, 352 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 1: all right, the Jets are Yeah. I mean I could 353 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 1: make the argument that the Saints offense shouldn't be better. 354 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,960 Speaker 1: Here's one Michael Thomas hasn't played in two years, I know, 355 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,640 Speaker 1: and the news hasn't been tremendous that. Oh and he's 356 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 1: still and he's still not practicing. Yeah right. Would you 357 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 1: rather have the Steelers offense for one year for two 358 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 1: thousand two or the Titans? Mm hmm, I think I 359 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:22,920 Speaker 1: take Pittsburgh. I would take Pittsburgh too, Yeah. I mean 360 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:26,439 Speaker 1: I don't trust Burks. I don't is awfully tempting. But 361 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 1: the receivers are junk. I don't think the old line 362 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: is great, that the quarterbacks great. We don't know when 363 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,639 Speaker 1: Woods is going to be back, right, And you can 364 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:40,360 Speaker 1: say the same about Harris at running back. But I mean, 365 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 1: you really need both those backs to be seventeen games studs, 366 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 1: you know, and the chance that both of them are 367 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,840 Speaker 1: are probably slim. Yeah they have. They come Harrison at 368 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 1: least younger. They come in a Yeah, there really scares me. Yeah, 369 00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: I could see them. I'm not saying Rabels and uh 370 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 1: on the hot seat or anything like that. But if 371 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,119 Speaker 1: they won six games this year and Malik Willis is 372 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,919 Speaker 1: starting Week fifteen for the after the season shot, it 373 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: wouldn't blow me away. Defensive d v o A Buffalo's one. 374 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 1: Got no problem with that. There they were great, they 375 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:21,160 Speaker 1: were one last year. Yallas is two. Hm. I don't 376 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:25,439 Speaker 1: see that. They have some young pieces. I assume they 377 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,880 Speaker 1: think are getting better, but I don't see a top 378 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 1: five defense there. New Orleans is three. New England New 379 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:37,800 Speaker 1: England is four, The Rams are five. Hard we're hard 380 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 1: on New England, but the sum of their parts is 381 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:44,919 Speaker 1: always better, right. Yeah, you know, Arizona is six. I 382 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 1: think their defense is horrendous. Yeah, I don't get that. Uh. 383 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 1: San Francisco seven, Indianapolis eight, Tampa Bay nine, Miami Tampa 384 00:22:55,880 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 1: and I get Indie Miami. I don't think Miami's gonna 385 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,639 Speaker 1: have a top ten defense. They would be in my 386 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 1: middle tier, the middle third of the league. Cleveland. Cleveland 387 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:13,440 Speaker 1: is eleven. I wouldn't try to stealers for Cleveland's no, 388 00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 1: not in the heartbeat. Tennessee is twelve. It's good, it's 389 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:24,439 Speaker 1: not right, it's probably around twelve. Chicago is Yeah again. 390 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:30,680 Speaker 1: I'm remember listening to Aaron Schotz's podcast. He was shocked 391 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:36,119 Speaker 1: how high Chicago's defense came out. Yeah, consider they basically 392 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,560 Speaker 1: got rid of the whole defensive line. Right. Their first 393 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 1: two picks were d backs. Great, but Piki Hicks has gone, 394 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:46,160 Speaker 1: Khalil Max gone, Eddie Goldman's gone. Right, how's that gonna 395 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:48,880 Speaker 1: be better? I can't see it. And then you finally 396 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 1: get to the Steelers of fourteen, Yeah, that just seems 397 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,960 Speaker 1: too low. I agree, Um, we'll see. I mean, obviously 398 00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,280 Speaker 1: that will change as the season goes on. But there 399 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:03,119 Speaker 1: was seven or eight, I'd be like, okay, yeah, if 400 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: I mean that's fair. Yeah, I would probably have them 401 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,360 Speaker 1: fourth or fifth. But if they were seven or eight, 402 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,960 Speaker 1: I wouldn't fight you one bit on it. Right? Is 403 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 1: too low? Too low? Too low? Uh? Dallas that much 404 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 1: over them? Arizona is the one that really erupts me. Wrong. Yeah, 405 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,120 Speaker 1: I mean they get a bunch of old guys, can't 406 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 1: stay healthy. I mean Jordan Hicks played a ton of 407 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,640 Speaker 1: snabs for them. Chandler Jones is gone, Their corners are bad, 408 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,719 Speaker 1: you know, like I don't they They've invested in offense, 409 00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:36,159 Speaker 1: keep Kyler happy. Yeah, but that is the That was 410 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 1: the Football Outsiders and that was also uh the NFL 411 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 1: Futures Pixar off of off of NFL dot com. That 412 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 1: is going to do it for our show today for 413 00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,800 Speaker 1: my partner Matt Williamson. I am Dale Lully. We thank 414 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,399 Speaker 1: you for listening to this edition of the Drive on 415 00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:52,720 Speaker 1: Steelers Nation Radio.