WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 7, 2024 0:00:02.440 --> 0:00:06.800 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.920 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:37.000 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Steves with us around 0:00:37.040 --> 0:00:39.159 the table. Steve, good Morning's here, Good morning. I'm going 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:40.840 to ask you then, first question, who wins? 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:45.320 So caveat first. Okay, I'm not speaking for Newburger Berman. 0:00:45.440 --> 0:00:47.559 I'm speaking just for myself. I don't want to get 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:50.199 into trouble. And what I'm about to say is just 0:00:50.200 --> 0:00:54.320 pure political analysis. And the analogy I'll draw is to 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:56.840 the financial crisis. You know, in August of two thousand 0:00:56.880 --> 0:01:01.680 and seven, the subprime paper market collapse, and at that point, 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:04.559 when you look back on it, the financial crisis was baked. 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:09.360 Everything else was completely inevitable. So I think that it 0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:12.280 is completely inevitable at this point that Donald Trump will 0:01:12.280 --> 0:01:15.280 win every single swing state and we'll get elected. And 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:17.759 the reason I think this way we'll unfold is part 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:20.560 one of the story is that the protesters and all 0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:24.720 the universities are becoming the face of the Democratic Party. 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:27.880 But that's not one hundred percent at this point. But 0:01:27.959 --> 0:01:30.319 what's going to solidify it is in August at the 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:35.400 Democratic Convention, which is in Chicago. Ironically, you'll see all 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:37.560 these protesters again, and a lot of them will be 0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:40.959 screaming in yelling things like not just at the Israel, 0:01:41.000 --> 0:01:43.920 but death to America because they can't help themselves, and 0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:48.120 the country will be a polled and that'll be it. 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:48.720 It'll be over. 0:01:49.160 --> 0:01:52.960 Let's say, you right, Crystal Bull dead on. Next question 0:01:53.080 --> 0:01:55.560 is what do I do with that information? And when 0:01:55.600 --> 0:01:57.520 do I put the trades on? And what are the trades? 0:01:57.560 --> 0:01:58.480 How do you sort of I. 0:01:58.440 --> 0:02:02.160 Would say, you do largely nothing, because I don't think 0:02:02.240 --> 0:02:05.680 that whether Trump wins or Biden wins has any real 0:02:05.720 --> 0:02:08.200 impact on the economy at all. You know, there'll be 0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:11.840 things that people will will want to trade, which I'm 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:13.960 not going to talk about because I haven't put on. 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:14.680 Those straights yet. 0:02:15.720 --> 0:02:19.400 Because it's because it's too early. But there'll be things 0:02:19.440 --> 0:02:22.480 to do, but that'll just be short term trade. 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:24.840 Some investing. Can I jump in? That's what I'm interested in. 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:26.959 You said it's too early, when it's the right time 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:28.880 to really think about expressing these as trades. 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:31.240 Oh, I think when in August, when at the convention, 0:02:31.320 --> 0:02:33.680 when this one when I said happens happens, everybody will 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:34.880 realize that that's the case. 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:38.040 So you said that it doesn't really matter who gets elected. Yes, 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:40.760 that's fascinating to me because some people are saying that 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:45.160 Donald Trump would put on pretty significant tariffs, particularly to China, 0:02:45.280 --> 0:02:49.120 and that this would increase inflation sort of de facto 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:50.960 in the United States. I see you rolling your eyes. 0:02:51.000 --> 0:02:52.840 You can respond in a second. And then at the 0:02:52.840 --> 0:02:57.000 same time you're going to have, you know, the tax cuts, reinstadts. 0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:58.120 And dogs will be lying together and it will be 0:02:58.240 --> 0:03:01.680 end of the world and doom, gloom and whatever lunging together. 0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:03.560 I don't know, it could usum gloom depending on your view. 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:04.440 But what do you make of this? 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:05.400 Why do you discount this? 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:07.560 I mean, do I think that Donald Trump would increase 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:08.720 tarifts to China? 0:03:08.880 --> 0:03:09.160 Sure? 0:03:09.560 --> 0:03:12.560 Do I think that would have a massive inflationary impact 0:03:12.560 --> 0:03:13.360 in the United States. 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:14.600 I think that's ridiculous. 0:03:15.240 --> 0:03:18.200 So you know, on the margin, would it impact you know, 0:03:18.240 --> 0:03:20.920 for example, I'll give you a company, First Solar, So 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:24.760 First Solar sells solar panels to utilities. Now, they're already 0:03:24.840 --> 0:03:28.280 massive tarists that are helping them. Now, could Trump increase 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:31.360 the tariffs or make them longer so that stock would 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:35.440 do better? Could be But you know the price of 0:03:35.480 --> 0:03:37.160 T shirts going to go up, as a price of 0:03:37.200 --> 0:03:39.480 food going to go up. No, I mean you have 0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:41.600 to remember that the United States is of all the 0:03:41.680 --> 0:03:45.000 developed world, the United States is the most insular economy 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:45.440 of any. 0:03:45.360 --> 0:03:46.360 Of any developed world. 0:03:46.440 --> 0:03:48.200 So the fact that tariffs will go on in China, 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:49.240 big deal. 0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:52.320 But one thing you recently spoke about was infrastructure spending, 0:03:52.360 --> 0:03:54.360 and how do you like all of those trains? What 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:57.280 happens to all of that if Trump becomes elected because 0:03:57.320 --> 0:03:59.080 all that is attached to the Biden administration. 0:03:59.280 --> 0:04:05.760 Well true, but a don't forget that the solar tariffs 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:11.320 were put on by Trump Originally, most more than fifty 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:13.640 percent of all the government spending is actually going to 0:04:13.720 --> 0:04:17.520 Red States. So I don't think he's going to want 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:21.600 to mess with his own voters. Could there be tinkering 0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:22.200 at the edges? 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:22.640 Sure? 0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:25.039 Are there enough votes in the United States Senate to 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:28.440 repeal the IIJ Act and the IRA Act not even close? 0:04:29.120 --> 0:04:31.880 So you know, rhetoric, You'll hear lots of rhetoric. 0:04:31.520 --> 0:04:35.599 About repealing the IRA or changing the IRA, and you 0:04:35.600 --> 0:04:38.599 know stocks will move on that. But at the end 0:04:38.640 --> 0:04:40.279 of the day, nothing will happen. 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:43.080 So spending will continue, Yes, tax cuts will get extended, 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:46.159 Tariffs on the margin will be there. This to me 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:48.320 raises questions that a lot of people have talked about, 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:51.320 which is a deficit not going away at the time 0:04:51.440 --> 0:04:52.960 where you're going to have to see some of the 0:04:53.240 --> 0:04:55.840 issue ins numbers really start to pick up. You seem 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:56.680 to discount that too. 0:04:56.880 --> 0:04:57.520 You don't think. 0:04:57.360 --> 0:04:59.520 That's one hundred percent not an issue? 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:01.680 Oka, You don't think the deficit issues. 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:01.960 Not inn is shot. 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:02.800 So can I tell you why? 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:06.840 Look, I'm not an economist. I can only say this 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:11.520 that the people who have been complaining about the deficit, 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:15.240 and I like to call them the OI, the deficit people, Okay. 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:17.360 Because that's what it sounds, that's what they sound like. 0:05:17.640 --> 0:05:21.120 I literally have been literally been saying O the deficit 0:05:21.480 --> 0:05:26.080 for forty years. Okay, forty years now. Look, in my business, 0:05:26.640 --> 0:05:30.200 being too early is the equivalent of being wrong. But 0:05:31.160 --> 0:05:33.279 in my business, when you're too early, you're a year 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:36.279 too early. You're two years too early, You're not forty 0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:39.039 years too early. When you're forty years too early, you 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:41.239 probably should just shut up and keep your mouth shut. 0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:44.920 But I would say this that the sign that. 0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:46.640 The OI the deficit group. 0:05:46.480 --> 0:05:50.719 Will be right is when rates actually go up a lot. 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:54.159 Until then, everybody should just keep quiet. 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:55.760 But how do you know when that's going to happen. 0:05:56.440 --> 0:06:00.080 It will be on the show and you'll say, wow, 0:06:00.600 --> 0:06:03.800 long term rates went up fifty basis points in one day, 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:07.360 and then it will sound so. 0:06:07.360 --> 0:06:11.640 Natural right after forty fifty years. Until then it's not relevant. 0:06:11.640 --> 0:06:13.240 Well, but this, to me is a real question because 0:06:13.279 --> 0:06:16.120 people increasingly are focused on this in the market. People 0:06:16.160 --> 0:06:18.680 who actually can determine what those rates are can send 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:20.360 those rates to up fifty. 0:06:20.120 --> 0:06:23.000 Bases treasuries, Well, there are rates going up. 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:25.760 There was a time when you're talking, so they're doing 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:28.120 so you think, are you basically saying that you are 0:06:28.160 --> 0:06:30.400 long long term rates? Because you think that all of 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:33.840 this discussion about OI the deficit is still way too early, 0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:35.760 and all these people are. 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:39.520 Become a meme. Now I hope. So I just literally 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:43.400 just made it out. It's really good. So answer the 0:06:43.480 --> 0:06:45.520 question I lost the train of Okay, Well. 0:06:45.440 --> 0:06:47.160 I'm just saying, you know, if you you know, at 0:06:47.160 --> 0:06:50.760 what point do you say, Okay, if we think that 0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:54.360 the discussion of OI the deficit is overblown, go into 0:06:54.400 --> 0:06:55.960 long treasuries, buy them. 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:57.720 Because all the people who are worried about that are 0:06:57.720 --> 0:06:58.599 going to be proven wrong. 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:01.440 I mean, look, I'm not really a bond person. I'm 0:07:01.480 --> 0:07:07.760 more of a stock jockey. So what caused the market 0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:10.320 to go down? In twenty twenty two? The FED raised 0:07:10.360 --> 0:07:13.000 rates five hundred basis points. I don't think the Fed's 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:14.920 going to be raising rates. Do I think the Fed's 0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:17.480 going to cut rates? Maybe? I actually do think it 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:19.840 doesn't really matter because if they cut, their only cutting 0:07:19.880 --> 0:07:22.120 a little bit. They're not certainly not cutting five hundred 0:07:22.120 --> 0:07:24.400 basis points. You know, people like to talk about it 0:07:24.400 --> 0:07:27.080 on Fed Day as if you know, Moses came down 0:07:27.080 --> 0:07:29.600 from Sinai with the tablets and let let's examine whether 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:32.440 the ten commandments are on there, because we'll look at 0:07:32.520 --> 0:07:35.000 whether there was Oh, there was a comma removed. 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:36.880 That's so significant. 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:38.040 Let's buy the. 0:07:38.120 --> 0:07:38.520 S and P. 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:42.480 You know miss that. 0:07:42.560 --> 0:07:47.200 He said, bah, wow, what does that mean? So then 0:07:47.520 --> 0:07:49.680 you say, oh, you know what, it's not relevant. 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:52.640 Okay, So you don't necessarily see the potential rate cutting 0:07:52.640 --> 0:07:54.520 cycle is particularly relevant to your stock picking. 0:07:54.520 --> 0:07:58.000 At the same time, there is no aggressive rate cycle 0:07:58.080 --> 0:08:01.840 coming of cutting that would matter. If the FED is 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:05.600 going to cut rates once twice to tinker at the edges. 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:07.800 We can live five percent, it's the message. 0:08:08.400 --> 0:08:10.800 We seem to be living just fine with it right now. 0:08:11.240 --> 0:08:13.120 The economy is fine, which is I think is a 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:13.960 surprise to everybody. 0:08:14.080 --> 0:08:15.640 It rais an important question. I was listening to the 0:08:15.640 --> 0:08:17.880 podcast you did with Tracy and Joe. It's fantastic, by 0:08:17.920 --> 0:08:19.560 the way, and if you haven't listened to it at home, 0:08:19.680 --> 0:08:22.800 you should do odd lots. And you talked about good 0:08:22.840 --> 0:08:25.280 times is for storytelling bad times, it's for the focus 0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:26.760 on a bandance sheet. Is this a good time? 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:29.200 Or it's definitely a good time? And I'll just repeat 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:32.600 what I said on that show because I like it. 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:34.480 Is it There are three great themes of our time. 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:39.680 There's ai, there's everything having to do with infrastructure, and 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:41.599 there's crypto, and I believe in the first two and 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:42.720 I don't believe in the third. 0:08:43.080 --> 0:08:43.839 Why not the third? 0:08:46.160 --> 0:08:48.760 Look, the crypto is there's two questions with respect to crypto. 0:08:48.920 --> 0:08:50.680 Is is it a currency? And if it's a currency, 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:53.160 should you own it? So let's skip the first part. 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:54.880 But that's like that's like, you know, is it a 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:57.240 currency is like having an dis question about how many 0:08:57.240 --> 0:08:58.480 angels dance on the head of a pin. 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:01.120 You know, there's no structure to it. 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:04.240 So okay, So if it's a currency, why should you 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:06.880 own it? So let's ask the people who own crypto 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:08.720 why do they own it? They all say the same thing. 0:09:09.160 --> 0:09:15.320 They say, fear currency all the deficit people's definitely gonna 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:21.040 be a memere my first meme. Yeah, and it's so 0:09:21.080 --> 0:09:23.959 it's a hedge against the demise of fear currency. You know, 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:26.840 cats and dogs one day will lie together, you'll be 0:09:26.880 --> 0:09:28.520 in a kay, but at least you'll have your crypto. 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:33.839 It's like digital gold. That's that's the thesis. So okay, 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:36.000 let's let's take them at their word. So if that's 0:09:36.040 --> 0:09:40.520 the thesis, then on days where everybody's worried about inflation, 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:43.320 they're worried about the deficit, and NASDAK is down. 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:45.360 Three hundred points and interest. 0:09:45.120 --> 0:09:47.040 Rates are up. Crypto should be up. 0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:49.800 And on days where everybody's feeling great and video is 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:51.920 up and NASDAK is up and rates are down and 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:54.480 nobody cares about inflation, Crypto should be down. 0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:55.960 And does it act that way? 0:09:56.080 --> 0:09:56.559 It does not. 0:09:56.960 --> 0:10:00.679 It acts exactly the opposite of its own these It's 0:10:00.760 --> 0:10:05.520 correlation to NAASAC is like seventy five percent. So to me, 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:11.000 it's just another way for people to speculate on speculating. 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:14.559 So what do I do that there's no data point 0:10:14.880 --> 0:10:18.120 of research that says that it's right or that it's wrong. 0:10:18.559 --> 0:10:22.280 So at this point you don't like crypto debt whatever. 0:10:22.400 --> 0:10:24.560 I never have, but I'm not short. I don't short 0:10:24.559 --> 0:10:25.480 it because there's something to short. 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:26.880 How do you get an edge at a time where 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:30.560 everyone loves ai and where everyone's scouring for the place. 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:34.640 One example of a stock that I think eventually will 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:38.960 become a great AI play, which I mean the whole 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:42.800 thing about getting an edge I think is overrated. Because 0:10:44.000 --> 0:10:46.439 most people have all the facts. It's a question of 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:48.400 how you interpret the facts. I mean, people think that 0:10:48.440 --> 0:10:51.600 I had some sort of unbelievable edge about the subprime 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:54.320 mortgage sector. I had the same facts that everybody else had, 0:10:54.480 --> 0:11:00.160 I just looked at them differently. So you know, right now, 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:03.720 everybody's focused on Nvidia and a MD and data centers. 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:07.520 But one day, and that day is not too far 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:11.040 from now, there will be a lot of AI apps 0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:15.240 that you and I will use, and we're not going 0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:17.679 to use them at a data center in the cloud. 0:11:17.679 --> 0:11:19.040 We're going to want to use them on our phone 0:11:20.040 --> 0:11:24.040 because that we wanted at the head end right here. 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:27.839 So at that point there's going to be I think 0:11:27.880 --> 0:11:35.000 an entire new sales cycle of phones laptops that are 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:36.760 going to need to be upgraded to be able to 0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:39.559 do all this stuff that eventually we will want to do. 0:11:39.920 --> 0:11:40.560 That's Apple. 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:42.000 So you're buying Apple aggressively. 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:43.920 Well, we've owned it for a long time and we 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:46.400 continue to own it now. But it's not it's not 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:49.640 actionable at this second because that hasn't been an app. 0:11:50.480 --> 0:11:53.199 What app I don't know. When it shows up, I'll 0:11:53.240 --> 0:11:57.600 let you know, but until then, but at that point, 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:00.640 the phone I have, the new phone, that phone is 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:02.360 not going to be probably it's probably not going to 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:04.480 be capable to do some of the apps that you're 0:12:04.480 --> 0:12:05.120 going to want to do. 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:07.240 It appears, and that's the direction of travel. I know 0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:08.680 you've talked about this in the past. I'd love to 0:12:08.679 --> 0:12:11.839 hear it again. The electricity grid. Yes, the demand on 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:16.680 electricity in this country, given where policy is, EVS, where 0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:18.679 AI is going, how great is it going to be? 0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:20.480 We in a position to supply it. 0:12:21.280 --> 0:12:25.680 So the utility budget CAPEX budgets go up every single 0:12:25.760 --> 0:12:29.200 year they update them. They do like a three year 0:12:29.360 --> 0:12:33.000 forward look and the that comes out you know January 0:12:33.000 --> 0:12:36.840 when they report, and the utility budgets three year budgets 0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:41.280 are up twenty percent. That's an enormous, enormous sum. They're 0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:43.760 going to go up even more because the U n 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:47.360 VIDA MD chips are use a lot more electricity than 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:49.839 the CPUs do, so there's even more pressure on the grid. 0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:55.520 So the cycle of you know, improving the grid, building 0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:00.600 you know, green type of utility struck is whether it's 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:04.000 wind and solar or just upgrading what you have, is 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:05.199 going to go on for a very very long time. 0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:07.800 I've just mentioned one stock that I've talked about before, 0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:09.280 you know, I mean what. 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:10.080 Do utilities do. 0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:12.040 They send you electricity and they send you a bill, 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:14.720 but when they actually have to do something, they hire 0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:17.920 somebody to do it. So when you hear that utility 0:13:18.080 --> 0:13:21.959 A is in creeping, it's increasing its CAPEX budget, and 0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:25.040 it is building a solar whatever or a gas whatever, 0:13:26.080 --> 0:13:28.360 nine times out of ten they hire a company called Quanta, 0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:32.360 which is the largest utility related engineering company in the country. 0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:35.760 We've owted for a long time. But what I would say, 0:13:35.800 --> 0:13:38.280 the amusing thing is I'm on the quarterly call. 0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:41.920 Every quarter, and every quarter the CEO looks happier, and 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.439 you think I couldn't look happier. 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:48.000 Because he was so happy last quarter, but even happier 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:51.200 today because he has so much business he can't do 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:51.640 it all. 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:54.640 That's the winner. Is there a loser? Is there a 0:13:54.679 --> 0:13:56.160 short for you an active show? 0:13:56.280 --> 0:13:58.640 I'm not talking about shorts, No. I mean I do 0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:01.000 a little shorting for myself, but that's it. 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:03.040 Could you think of a theme that associated with that 0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:04.880 where there could be a group of companies that would 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:05.640 lose in that world? 0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:08.360 Well, I would say just as an uber theme about 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:10.400 companies that I probably would not invest in. 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:14.720 Okay, are you know the stock set did really well. 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:18.920 Call it twenty eighteen nineteen twenty twenty one. Were the 0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:24.680 very high revenue growth, negative earnings companies, kind of like 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:29.360 venture public venture capital companies. Those got destroyed in twenty 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:34.560 twenty two, down literally seventy five to ninety percent. You 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:36.440 know they've come back, but you know, when you're down 0:14:36.480 --> 0:14:38.760 seventy five to ninety percent and then you go up 0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:41.600 fifty percent, it doesn't look so good on a chart. 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:45.680 I would just avoid those companies until it becomes very 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:47.960 clear that they actually have real business models where they 0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:49.080 can actually make money. 0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:51.240 In just a moment, we'll catch up with our alyst 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:54.160 of Bloomberg Intelligence on the World Disney company. That stock 0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:55.920 is down by about five percent this morning. Can we 0:14:56.120 --> 0:14:58.160 squeeze in a question on Marvel? Yes we can, which 0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:00.240 you have some expertise? I do this co say she 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:01.600 could go a whole lot longer than maybe it. 0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:06.320 Could go for hours? What do you a background? I'm 0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:07.480 going to brag a little bit. 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:11.360 I own one of the largest digital comic book collections 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:15.360 on planet Earth. It's eleven thousand comics on my iPad 0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:18.760 and I've read all eleven thousand, So I could write 0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:21.520 a dissertation on doctor Strange that would go for two 0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:22.280 hundred pages. 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:25.320 Read it, Yes, you probably would be very interesting. 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:27.680 Maybe they should make it into So the problem. 0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:30.360 With Marvel movies to me is that. 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:37.240 They had a great story and it ended and Iron 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:42.200 Man is dead, Captain America is ninety and Thor is 0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:42.640 and this. 0:15:42.600 --> 0:15:44.760 Really upsets me. And I really am serious about this. 0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:48.920 They made Thor into a comedic comedic buffoon, and it 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.040 was always one of my favorite comics. So Thor being 0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:54.760 a comedic buffoon I find extremely upsetting. This is Hamsworth, yes, 0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:58.680 and there's no story anymore. 0:15:57.720 --> 0:15:59.600 They they don't. 0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:01.840 They had a story where they had all these different 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:05.200 different tangents, but it all wove down into one eventual 0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:07.400 story and then it was over and they had been 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:10.160 unable to find a new story. And the problem is 0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:12.880 that their three gate characters are gone. So even if 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:14.480 they had a story, we would want to go watch. 0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:18.760 I would just say with final say this as an example, 0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:21.920 the last Guardians of the Galaxy movie was unwatchable. 0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:25.560 Steve Weisman with This World Disney Review. Steve Weisman of 0:16:25.680 --> 0:16:29.120 Newberger Berment, Stay this is great, It's going to see it. 0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:39.280 I'm pleased to say that. Joining us with his view 0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:42.760 on things is Mark Sandy of Moody's Analytics. Mark, it's 0:16:42.800 --> 0:16:44.840 been too long, sir, Thanks very much for catching up 0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:47.680 with this this morning. Why is the concern in your words, 0:16:47.920 --> 0:16:51.560 around inflation being above target? Why is that concern misplaced? 0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:55.840 Well, I think inflation's at target appropriately measured at least 0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:56.880 underlying inflation. 0:16:57.640 --> 0:16:59.080 You know, I think if. 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:04.119 It's very problematic measuring the cost of housing services, particularly 0:17:04.119 --> 0:17:08.920 owner's equivalent rent, and if you look at harmonized inflation 0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:12.440 exclude OEER, we're there, and we've been there for quite 0:17:12.480 --> 0:17:15.000 some time, so, you know, I think the FED should 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:18.119 be focused on the underlying rate of inflation, trying to 0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:20.159 abstract from the vagaries of the data, the ups and 0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:21.760 downs and all around. That's why they look at core 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:23.800 excluding food and energy. But at this point in time, 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:27.560 i'd also exclude OEER, and if you do that, we're there, 0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:28.359 and we've been again. 0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:30.760 We've been there for you know, six nine months. 0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:33.960 So to me, it feels like the FED has achieved 0:17:34.000 --> 0:17:36.960 its goal. It's mandated. We're at full employments of four 0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:40.000 percent unemployment, and we're at we're at target on inflation 0:17:40.080 --> 0:17:44.920 and inflation expectations are nailed down to that two percent target. 0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:48.480 So I think, to me, all the everything's pointing brain 0:17:48.720 --> 0:17:51.159 for FED, for the FED to start cutting rates here. 0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:52.800 Why do you think they don't talk about it in 0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:53.440 the same way. 0:17:54.680 --> 0:17:57.040 I think it's a matter of credibility. I think they said, look, 0:17:57.040 --> 0:17:59.200 we're getting this is this is our number. We're looking 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:03.720 at core consumer expenditure to flatter. That's our target. That's 0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:07.320 the benchmark we're using for underlying inflation. We said we're 0:18:07.320 --> 0:18:09.240 going to get to two percent, and we're going to 0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:12.960 get there because they want to ensure that they are. 0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:15.560 Credible going forward. I get it. 0:18:15.640 --> 0:18:17.760 I understand that, and that's why I don't think they're 0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:21.760 going to move until later in the year, probably around September. 0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:24.120 That seems like the most logical point where they'd start 0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:27.600 cutting rates. But you know they are running a risk 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:28.600 by doing so. 0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:29.440 I mean, it keeps. 0:18:29.840 --> 0:18:31.800 I do think the federal funds rate target at five 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:33.480 and a half percent is high, and it's putting a 0:18:33.480 --> 0:18:35.560 lot of pressure on the banking system, financial system in 0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:38.560 broader economy, and they run the risk of breaking something. 0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:40.280 So they're taking a chance here. But I think at 0:18:40.280 --> 0:18:40.840 the end of the day. 0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:43.040 They want to make sure that they you know, they 0:18:43.359 --> 0:18:44.720 did what they're saying, they said they're going to do. 0:18:44.720 --> 0:18:46.399 They're going to hit two percent on the core PCEE 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:47.520 to flatter Mark. 0:18:47.720 --> 0:18:49.520 If Tom Mark herey, he would say, let's rip up 0:18:49.560 --> 0:18:51.200 the script because I'm getting a lot of hate mail 0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:53.960 from people who might fall into the OI the deficit camp. 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:56.040