WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 7th, 2025 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:15.480 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.720 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.319 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:37.400 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app Danny if you had 0:00:37.440 --> 0:00:40.199 any research writing. Everyone's on the lookout for signs of 0:00:40.200 --> 0:00:43.360 an AI bubble, Yet the market continues to climb the 0:00:43.360 --> 0:00:46.360 walls of bubble worries. Joined us now for more ed 0:00:46.400 --> 0:00:49.000 Welcome to the program, sir, Two part question, what's the 0:00:49.040 --> 0:00:50.440 bubble and what is this? 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:55.440 Well, at this point, I think we're getting into bubble territory. 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:58.680 For sure. We've got the forward pe of the S 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:03.200 and P five hundred around twenty three, and the peak 0:01:03.520 --> 0:01:06.880 during the previous tech bubble in the late nineteen nineties 0:01:07.720 --> 0:01:10.959 was twenty five. So we're getting close. But you know, 0:01:11.200 --> 0:01:15.920 the earning story has been phenomenally strong, particularly this year 0:01:15.920 --> 0:01:18.280 in the first and second quarters. Who would have thought 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:22.080 with all the commotion coming out of Washington, And it 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:24.920 looks us on the third quarter earning season, which is 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:27.440 about to start, is going to be very strong as well. 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:30.440 We're expecting ten percent a year over yere percent change, 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:34.679 So the earnings are actually there to continue to drive 0:01:34.720 --> 0:01:38.160 this bull market higher. But I wouldn't want to see 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:41.480 the valuation multiple go any higher than it is right now. 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:43.920 At that earning story part of the reason, part of 0:01:43.959 --> 0:01:45.800 many reasons why a lot of people are still looking 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:48.680 for the potential mounts up. Typically, a mounts up is 0:01:48.680 --> 0:01:51.240 a risk people want to own. Is it a risk 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:53.120 you want to own? And are you willing to keep 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:56.240 your bets on this market quite concentrated to take advantage 0:01:56.280 --> 0:01:56.600 of it? 0:01:57.480 --> 0:01:59.920 Well, you know, I think it hasn't been all valuation 0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:05.000 And the reality is again has been a earnings lead 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:08.040 melt up, which is fine. I don't have a problem 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:09.760 with that, and that's really not a melt up. The 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:13.240 fundamentals are actually there. And oh, by the way, if 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:17.079 this whole AI thing turns out to be a lot 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:19.440 of hype and the companies that are spending all this 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:24.520 money on AI infrastructure, have to kind of slow it down, 0:02:25.040 --> 0:02:27.000 and it's not exactly the end of the world. I mean, 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:30.760 these companies are using cash flow to finance this. It's 0:02:30.800 --> 0:02:35.520 not like nineteen ninety nine where telecommunications companies did seller 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:38.320 financing and there was a tremendous amount of debt because 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:40.440 to do that they borrowed in the jump bond market. 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:45.799 So there's a lot of credit in the bubble back then. 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:49.200 This time around, it's cash flow, and if they have 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:51.480 to slow it down, their profits are suddenly going to 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:52.200 look even better. 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:55.240 Well, and two of those companies, AMD and open Ai. 0:02:55.480 --> 0:02:58.480 The amdco Julie Sue said this yesterday. The more open 0:02:58.520 --> 0:03:01.640 ai deploys, the more revenue get and they get to 0:03:01.760 --> 0:03:04.680 share the upside. Does it concern you that this is 0:03:04.720 --> 0:03:05.560 so circular? 0:03:06.280 --> 0:03:10.760 Yeah, well, you know, I'm thinking of putting a few 0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:14.359 billion dollars into open ai and doing business with them. 0:03:15.120 --> 0:03:18.560 Everybody's playing the game here, So yeah, the circularity of 0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:21.600 it has got the market's really spooked. The market's got 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:26.240 spooked about AI back in January, remember with deep seek, 0:03:26.280 --> 0:03:29.360 and so this is kind of the latest fear that 0:03:29.400 --> 0:03:32.160 we haven't seen anywhere near the kind of correction we 0:03:32.200 --> 0:03:36.520 saw with Deep Seek. I'm not that concerned about it. 0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:39.720 I think there is a lot of capital spending going on, 0:03:39.800 --> 0:03:44.760 and these companies, you know, unless they're misinformed, which I 0:03:44.840 --> 0:03:48.480 kind of doubt it. These hyperscalers, they know what's going on, 0:03:48.560 --> 0:03:51.640 and they know that the capacity of their system is 0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:56.760 getting stretched, is getting pushed by everybody using AI and 0:03:56.800 --> 0:03:58.600 try to figure out how to use it. 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:02.520 Bezos said this week as well that investors are just 0:04:02.600 --> 0:04:04.720 having a hard time in the middle of excitement to 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:09.480 distinguish between the good ideas and the bad ideas. How 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:11.960 do you distinguish between the good and the bad? 0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:16.200 Well, I'm no better at it than anybody else's At 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:21.680 this point, I'm going to assume that the hyperscalers, who 0:04:21.760 --> 0:04:25.480 basically are Magnificent seven kind of companies, know what they're doing, 0:04:25.680 --> 0:04:29.280 and they are you know, a lot of the investments 0:04:29.279 --> 0:04:31.839 are data centers. It's not like you know, right now, 0:04:31.880 --> 0:04:35.279 there's a lot of mystery about where the spending is going, 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:41.039 and the data centers but themselves and that are actually 0:04:41.760 --> 0:04:46.360 the data is available monthly from the construction report that 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:48.440 the government used to put out when they was open 0:04:49.520 --> 0:04:53.360 But that showed that data centers were running around forty 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:57.200 billion dollars, and that's at an annual rate. That's times twelve. 0:04:57.440 --> 0:05:00.359 That's not a terrible number. Now, of course, once you 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:04.320 build the actual structure, you've got to stuff it with 0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:08.760 all these semiconductor chiefs, and that that money is being spent. 0:05:09.400 --> 0:05:11.200 I don't think this is money down the drain. I 0:05:11.240 --> 0:05:13.680 think you know, this is for real. 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:16.400 And there is an additional dimension that makes this rather 0:05:16.480 --> 0:05:18.760 strange that we have the US government picking winners at 0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:22.080 the same time intow Trilogy Metals, we have open AI 0:05:22.560 --> 0:05:24.880 picking winners too. We saw evidence of that in the 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:27.000 last twenty four hours. Does that change your approach to 0:05:27.040 --> 0:05:28.080 start picking at. 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:34.080 Well? You know, my attitude towards Washington is, it's amazing 0:05:34.120 --> 0:05:37.960 how well the economy does despite Washington. It's amazing how 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:41.480 well the stock market does despite Washington. I don't I 0:05:41.520 --> 0:05:45.600 don't like the state capitalism, as you rightly called it. 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:48.719 It doesn't it's not really necessary. The free market should 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:51.800 be able to decide who the winners are and who 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:56.440 the losers are. So it's more more a noise coming 0:05:56.480 --> 0:06:01.120 out of Washington. The signal we're really seeing the fundamentals 0:06:01.160 --> 0:06:05.119 as the economy continues to be extremely resilient. That's really 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:08.400 the word for the economy. The past four years, we've 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:12.280 had the most widely anticipated recession of all times. That 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:14.919 didn't happen. I didn't think it would happen. And I 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:17.840 think that's why the evaluation multiples are high, and that's 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:20.120 why earning this so remarkably strong. 0:06:21.279 --> 0:06:24.800 Stay with us, multilintex Savanta's coming up off to this. 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:34.159 Here. 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:35.520 It is not a government shutdown. 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:38.400 It's a beautiful morning in front of a beautiful waterfront. 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:40.320 And I'm here with Kip Deevere, who's the co president 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:44.359 of Areas Management, which oversees almost six hundred billion dollars, 0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:47.400 And thank you so much for being with us here. 0:06:47.560 --> 0:06:49.960 I do want to start where John was talking about 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:52.520 this idea of the tech build out. How much private 0:06:52.520 --> 0:06:55.760 asset managers have been instrumental in that. I'm just wondering 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:59.760 how much you are continuing to accelerate your investments into 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:03.360 digital infrastructure, given that everyone is worried about an AI bubble? 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:05.840 Are we investing too much? Are we seeing the fruitions 0:07:06.160 --> 0:07:06.800 of our money? 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:09.760 Sure, so we've sort of transitioned that business to be 0:07:09.800 --> 0:07:13.200 broader in its scope. Historically we've been largely a lender 0:07:13.400 --> 0:07:15.760 to the space, so a senior lender and a mezzanine 0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:20.000 investor as well through our dead infrastructure business. We did 0:07:20.000 --> 0:07:23.680 a recent acquisition that you may be aware of, a 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:27.880 business focused on industrial logistics investing mostly in Japan, but 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:32.480 it's global and they have real digital infrastructure development capability, 0:07:32.880 --> 0:07:35.280 so we've started to roll that out. We've done two 0:07:35.320 --> 0:07:37.160 completed projects now in Tokyo. 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:39.600 We have a third underway. 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:42.160 Just on the outskirts of London, so we're getting more 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:46.520 active on the development front. I think that the measured 0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:50.000 approach that we've taken getting into the market doesn't frankly 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:52.520 put our investors at risk right Our goal is to 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:55.960 generate great returns for our investors, So we think if 0:07:56.000 --> 0:08:00.440 you stay in tricky markets, hard to find entitle land, 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:03.680 and then you're building really high quality facilities, which we 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:05.680 think we are. Because we have an in house team 0:08:05.720 --> 0:08:09.280 that came with the acquisition, it's pretty easy for us 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:13.640 to find great leases from investment grade tenants like viper scalers. 0:08:13.720 --> 0:08:16.120 Are you passing up opportunities that concern you? Do you 0:08:16.120 --> 0:08:18.040 see things out there that I. 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:21.320 Think we're selective, and I think if you look historically 0:08:22.080 --> 0:08:25.040 in areas like this over the last twenty or thirty years, 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:28.560 typically when this much capacity comes online, some of it, 0:08:28.600 --> 0:08:29.920 at the end of the day is going to have 0:08:30.000 --> 0:08:30.720 to be marginal. 0:08:30.800 --> 0:08:30.960 Right. 0:08:31.000 --> 0:08:34.480 These trends tend to lead to overbuilds in certain places. 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:36.960 So I think us being selective and being measured and 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:39.600 what we build is super super important. 0:08:39.840 --> 0:08:41.880 One thing that we've seen over the past five years 0:08:41.960 --> 0:08:46.120 is an incredible consolidation of market capitalization of the biggest 0:08:46.160 --> 0:08:48.760 asset managers, the biggest private asset managers. I'm thinking of 0:08:48.800 --> 0:08:50.960 the ones that you won't name, like Apollo and KKR, 0:08:51.040 --> 0:08:54.520 and of course areas defintely named. I'm just wondering whether 0:08:54.520 --> 0:08:56.280 you think this is the sort of path to follow, 0:08:56.480 --> 0:08:58.240 that you think the biggest are going to only get 0:08:58.280 --> 0:08:59.760 bigger and dominate this book. 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:03.760 We've believed since the beginning Frankly of the company, the 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:08.720 more scaled platform, both in terms of diversity of asset 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:11.319 classes but also diversity of geography is it was a 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:14.800 huge advantage. So we think we get better information to 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:18.720 participate in more markets. We probably do better due diligence 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:21.880 because we have better access points. So I think the 0:09:22.679 --> 0:09:26.560 both investing advantages but also the capital raising advantages are 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:28.840 real and you'll see you see that with the growth 0:09:28.880 --> 0:09:30.719 of Varies, with the growth of Apollo, and growth of 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:34.319 all the Blackstone KKR, all these folks that have consolidated 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:34.800 share for you. 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:38.560 Just actually did see another record year for fundraising, and 0:09:38.640 --> 0:09:41.920 it feels like it's accelerating with respect to how easily 0:09:42.000 --> 0:09:45.120 it is to really get interest from investors. 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:46.960 What's sort of been the tipping point? Where are you 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:48.720 seeing that interest really coming from? 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:51.720 Yeah, I mean, we grew up raising most of the 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:55.600 capital from the firm from institutions, so it was pensions, 0:09:56.200 --> 0:09:59.080 sovereign wealth funds, et cetera, et cetera. And we've really 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:02.400 diversified the way that we raise capital today. So I 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:06.720 would say an increased focus on the wealth channel for sure, 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:10.160 an increase focus on what our insurance clients are looking 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:13.040 for because they're very challenged in a tight spread, lower 0:10:13.120 --> 0:10:16.520 rate environment. So it's just become more and more diverse. 0:10:16.559 --> 0:10:19.920 And I think is we're able to educate and offer 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:24.440 access to investors that didn't have access to certain products before. 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:26.880 There's just a lot of uptakes from a new set 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:28.839 of clients that are interested in what we can deliver 0:10:28.880 --> 0:10:29.320 it areas. 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:32.080 How much is that going to be turbocharged by some 0:10:32.280 --> 0:10:34.760 of what's coming out of Washington, DC to open up 0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:38.520 some of the private as a management field for one KA. 0:10:38.440 --> 0:10:42.200 Accounts coming to I think our view is that it's 0:10:42.240 --> 0:10:46.080 probably a ways off for that to really provide a 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:49.720 lot of lyft. But we are incredibly supportive obviously of 0:10:49.840 --> 0:10:53.640 bringing our products into channels where there's interest. And I 0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:57.400 do think that those groups of investors today who have 0:10:57.520 --> 0:11:01.239 not had access to alternatives deserve access to alternatives. 0:11:02.000 --> 0:11:04.520 So right now, one thing that is another theme for 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:07.880 the year has been American exceptionalism and this question of 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:10.840 is it still the best place to invest? And I wonder, 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:13.880 as the co president of Areas, whether you see the 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:17.080 greatest opportunity in the United States or whether you increasingly 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:19.960 are expanding overseas that you see better investment. 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:23.160 Opportunity well, And so I think holistically we've been looking 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:25.800 to expand geographically for a host of different reasons, just 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:28.640 to give our investors more access points in terms of 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:34.000 geographic diversification and a class diversification. But to actually answer 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:38.520 your question, I do think despite some of the instability 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:41.280 that people may feel here, that most of the investors 0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:43.920 that we see around the world are most excited still 0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:45.280 about investing in America. 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:47.000 It's one thing that we've seen sort of this idea 0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:49.320 that everything was going to fall apart in the first half, 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:51.640 and suddenly we're talking about a reacceleration, and suddenly the 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:53.520 M and A that everyone had been expecting is coming 0:11:53.559 --> 0:11:56.520 back online. We're actually seeing those deals come to place. 0:11:56.760 --> 0:11:59.000 How active has it gotten for you? I mean, how 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:00.000 much you see this in your book? 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:02.760 So I mean, look, the first three to four months 0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:06.200 of the year, we're pretty rocky, particularly up through April, 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:10.040 and that really slowed transaction volume everywhere. But I'd say 0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:12.360 in most of the asset classes that we're in, everything 0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:16.120 is rallied back to where it was pre Liberation Day 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:19.320 and even through that. So credit spreads are incredibly tight, 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:22.520 whether you look at high grade corporates or high yield 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:27.160 or loans. The equity markets are obviously up through highs. 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:30.719 The thing that we're most excited about is actually kind 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:32.960 of a shift for folks that see maybe some of 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:37.040 those markets as expensive into some of our real assets businesses. 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:40.559 So the recovery in real estate, which we think is 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:44.200 real is offering a lot of opportunity for us to 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:46.959 kind of play into the sectors that we like. We 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:49.959 refer to kind of as the new economy real estate. 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:53.880 So that's industrial, that's logistics, it's self storage, it's multifamily, 0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:56.440 and we're seeing, we talked about it for a moment earlier, 0:12:56.559 --> 0:12:59.800 a lot of investment in the infrastructure space, whether it's 0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:01.200 additional or toward digital. 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:03.000 How much is that predicated on the idea of FED 0:13:03.080 --> 0:13:05.240 rate cuts or how much is that completely independent in 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:07.680 a sort of secular bed on some sort of shift 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:08.520 in the economy. 0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:13.240 I don't think it's particularly you know, reliant on rate cuts. 0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:16.040 I think rate cuts help equity more than it helps 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:17.319 credit lending businesses. 0:13:18.360 --> 0:13:19.680 So our own. 0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:24.120 View is the yield curve is probably over predicting cuts. 0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:30.360 I frankly think the economy here is pretty good, and policy, 0:13:30.360 --> 0:13:34.040 while it's a bit restrictive, doesn't seem to be slowing 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:37.679 too much down here in the States. So transaction activities 0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:40.360 picking up, and valuations, as I mentioned, have recovered in 0:13:40.360 --> 0:13:42.839 almost every asset class. So I do think we'll see 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:46.000 a slow decrease here in rates to try to provide 0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:49.800 some relief and keep the economic growth that's slowed growing. 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.280 But my own view is I don't think rates ring 0:13:53.320 --> 0:13:55.280 it down as quickly as maybe you're reading about in 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:55.880 the newspaper. 0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:57.440 So I have a feeling I know how you're going 0:13:57.480 --> 0:13:59.440 to answer, But what concerns you more some sort of 0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:01.400 downturn of the next six months or some sort of 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:02.640 reacceleration in inflation. 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:05.959 The ladder the ladder, I mean, I think we see 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:08.920 the economy as good, although the growth has slowed, and 0:14:08.960 --> 0:14:12.240 that's partially a result of rate increases by design to 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:14.719 obviously try to deal with inflation. But I think that 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:18.280 the real scary moment is that if you see a 0:14:18.360 --> 0:14:21.480 reignite of inflation and the FIT has to really dramatically 0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:25.080 rethink their policy, which I think has been one two 0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:27.440 leave rates where they are, slash, reduce them a bit, 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.520 which is obviously going to accommodate more growth and more 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:31.440 rise and valuation. 0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:35.720 Stay with us multile impex. Savannah's coming up off to this. 0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:47.600 I I'm here with Governor Ned Lamont of the Great 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:52.120 State of Connecticut in this October is that what Anne 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:56.400 Marie called it in Connecticut in the Delmar Harbor and Governor, 0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:58.040 thank you so much for being with us. I want 0:14:58.080 --> 0:15:00.920 to start with something that's an increasingly hot topic. We're 0:15:00.960 --> 0:15:04.560 here at a leader of businesses, with the leaders of 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:07.600 businesses who oversee huge portfolios of money. 0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:09.840 How is governor, do you keep. 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:13.400 Attracting this type of business to a state while providing 0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:17.680 some of the social services and other expenses that cause 0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:18.600 taxes to go up. 0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:21.840 Well, the folks here at the Greenwich Economic Forum are 0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:25.760 really important to the state, and the fintech sector, the 0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:29.360 financial services sector a big piece of our economy. We're 0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:33.200 part of the New York City financial ecosystem. I think 0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:36.360 what they like here is a little bit of certainty, instability. 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:38.000 They sort of know where the state's going to go. 0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:40.880 Are taxes a little bit less and it's not a 0:15:40.880 --> 0:15:41.600 bad lifestyle. 0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:44.840 Are you concerned about what would happen if, say there 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:47.720 is a changeover in the leadership in New York City, 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:52.400 Let's say mayoral candidate Zoron Mumdanie does win and implement 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:54.560 some of the policies that he puts out there. Are 0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:57.080 you concerned about the ramifications for a place like Greenwich 0:15:57.240 --> 0:16:00.720 truly relies on the ecosystem of the t state region 0:16:01.600 --> 0:16:02.160 a little bit. 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:05.680 New York City is the financial capital of the world, 0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:08.480 and we're a big piece of it here as evidence 0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:10.840 of the economic form, and I want to make sure 0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:14.120 that the next mayor understands how important New York City 0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:16.840 is to that system and that's important to Connecticut. 0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:20.040 How confront are you about who the leader is in 0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:22.120 the Democratic Party right now? Do you have a sense 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:25.360 of where the leadership really is coming from? 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:29.120 Governors? Okay, I'm a little loaded for bear on that. 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:33.120 I like governors. Governors have to get stuff done. Voters 0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:34.880 have to balance a budget, they have to do it 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:38.080 on time. Governors can't shut down a government. Governors are 0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:39.800 sort of the opposite of what you see going on 0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:42.680 to Washington. I think on both sides ale, but in 0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:46.040 our case, the Democrats sees real leadership coming from the governors. 0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:47.400 But don't ask me to ask names. 0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:50.320 Well, but I'm wondering, though, how does a governor take 0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:53.520 that leadership when things are shut down in Washington, DC, 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:56.080 And it seems like there's a real fissure right now 0:16:56.360 --> 0:17:03.280 in the party and tactics in approach in platform. 0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:05.120 I can tell you the governor's incredibly frustrated. Democrats are 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:09.479 louder about it than Republicans. You know, we balance our budget, 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:12.000 we do it based upon some assumptions in terms of 0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:14.439 what our relationship is with the federal government. If they 0:17:14.440 --> 0:17:16.800 pull the rug out from under you every week, seems 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:19.240 to be happening right now, it makes it very difficult 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:21.840 for that certainty of stability that the people in this room. 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:24.720 Like, how much have you seen actual ramifications from the 0:17:24.760 --> 0:17:28.680 government shutdown in the form of funding that isn't coming through. 0:17:30.760 --> 0:17:34.600 It's not my first rodeo with these Trump shutdowns. So 0:17:34.640 --> 0:17:37.080 we went through all of our commissioners. We saw what's 0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:39.320 it most at risk? Where do you have reserves with 0:17:39.600 --> 0:17:42.280 which is women, infant and children probably only had a 0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:44.720 week it's worth of reserve there. So we've figured out 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:48.240 how we backstop that snap, which is you know, food benefits. 0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:49.600 That's the end of this month. 0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:52.800 So we're watching very carefully where the risk is and 0:17:52.880 --> 0:17:54.880 i can't make up all the shortfall, but I'm trying 0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:56.480 my best to help out the most vulnerable. 0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:59.119 Well, how long do you have reserves to cover things? 0:17:59.160 --> 0:18:02.040 In other words, does funding run out? Should this shutdown 0:18:02.040 --> 0:18:03.920 continue for a long period of time. 0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:08.880 End of this month, you know, snap Benefits is probably 0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:12.000 seventy five million dollars a month. I cannot make up 0:18:12.000 --> 0:18:15.520 that shortfall. So if the federal government walks away, that's tough. 0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:18.280 If we had assurance the federal government is going to backstop, 0:18:18.320 --> 0:18:20.200 if we had to help it out for a couple 0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:22.240 of months and we'll get paid back, that's something else. 0:18:22.359 --> 0:18:23.560 We have none of that assurance. 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:25.280 I guess I want to go back to the idea 0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:27.879 of leadership right now because we are beginning the midterm 0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:30.959 election cycle, and I wonder, as a Democrat in your 0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:34.120 second term as governor, how much do you feel allegiance 0:18:34.119 --> 0:18:37.840 to the Democratic Party versus something else, a MorphOS that's 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:40.800 coming that doesn't necessarily have a label. 0:18:42.680 --> 0:18:45.680 Well, as governor, you feel strong allegiance to your state. 0:18:45.800 --> 0:18:47.080 I'm a homer for Connecticut. 0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:50.840 I'm Team Connecticut, and you know, Republican or Democrat, I 0:18:50.880 --> 0:18:54.280 try and get stuff done. Personally speaking, is I look 0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:57.400 at a lot of the Civil War down of Washington, DC, 0:18:57.640 --> 0:18:59.760 and I look at LA and I look at Chicago. 0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:03.040 You know, I do think it's important that the Democratic 0:19:03.200 --> 0:19:05.919 governors stand and stand and speak with one voice, that 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:08.760 you know what we need from the federal government in 0:19:08.840 --> 0:19:10.320 terms of a reliable partner. 0:19:10.840 --> 0:19:13.320 How much are you concerned about some of the images 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:15.439 that we're seeing with the National Guard going into places 0:19:15.440 --> 0:19:20.040 like Chicago and San Francisco and Portland and really raising 0:19:20.040 --> 0:19:21.720 a question about whether it's going to be the States 0:19:21.800 --> 0:19:22.840 versus the federal government. 0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:26.760 Right Dally will be speaking again. Remember a year or 0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:29.359 two ago you was talking about civil war. Will you go, oh, Ray, 0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:32.320 come on, it's a little bit unnerving if you see 0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:35.480 those images right now. I talked to General Yvon, the 0:19:35.480 --> 0:19:38.200 head of the Connecticut Guard. We're very careful, I said, 0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:41.080 any inquiries from the federal government, I don't know. We 0:19:41.200 --> 0:19:44.560 just sent our guard to Djibouti, not to Chicago. I 0:19:44.560 --> 0:19:45.720 feel pretty good about. 0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:46.919 That going forward. 0:19:47.240 --> 0:19:49.440 What is your plan to try to keep businesses here 0:19:49.520 --> 0:19:52.040 and attract them to the Northeast given the exodus that 0:19:52.119 --> 0:19:55.800 has gone to Florida to other places have lower taxes. 0:19:56.760 --> 0:19:59.720 We are speeding up our rail system from say Greenwich 0:19:59.760 --> 0:20:03.000 to you know, Grand Central. That'll be ten to fifteen 0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:05.639 minutes faster. Working really hard to make sure, you know, 0:20:05.680 --> 0:20:08.119 you can get the workforce you need. And again, we 0:20:08.200 --> 0:20:11.040 haven't raised taxes in seven years, we've balanced the budget. 0:20:11.080 --> 0:20:13.159 I think that type of stability is pretty helpful. 0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:15.200 Do you think that taxes need to come down? 0:20:15.320 --> 0:20:17.600 Do you think that that's an instrumental part of trying 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:20.760 to keep attracting businesses and compete with other states. 0:20:23.000 --> 0:20:26.399 Well, I'm a governor, so I can't over promise. Everybody 0:20:26.480 --> 0:20:28.320 running against me is always say they're going to eliminate 0:20:28.359 --> 0:20:30.840 the income tax in the state of Connecticut. I think 0:20:30.880 --> 0:20:33.199 what's more important to the folks I talk to is 0:20:33.640 --> 0:20:35.399 what's this state going to look like one year and 0:20:35.480 --> 0:20:37.119 five years from now? Do I want to be here? 0:20:37.160 --> 0:20:39.760 Because I'm making a five year bet. We haven't raised 0:20:39.800 --> 0:20:42.040