1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:03,239 Speaker 1: What's up, guys. How are you welcome into an early 2 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:06,360 Speaker 1: look at the divisional round games. He is Pat fitz Morris. 3 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 1: I am Att Parolz. We are here on the Betting 4 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:11,080 Speaker 1: Pro YouTube channel to give you picks, plays and thoughts, 5 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: sides and totals for the weekend. But Pat, let's put 6 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:17,480 Speaker 1: a bow on the wild card weekend after what we saw. 7 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: It was interesting. In the beginning, it was all dogs. 8 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: In the end, it was two favorites, Patriots and the Texans. 9 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: We'll talk about here in a second, winning and covering. 10 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: What was your overall takeaway from the first round of 11 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: the knockout playoffs. 12 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 2: I think we got the unpredictability that we thought we 13 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 2: were going to get. We had a lot of close games. 14 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 2: Jaguars Bills was a barn burner, I mean really didn't. 15 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 2: The first four games all come down to the final 16 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 2: possession of the game. So yeah, it was just totally 17 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,880 Speaker 2: up for grabs. We found the Steelers were the one 18 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 2: team that really had no business in the playoffs at all. 19 00:00:56,280 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 2: And you know, very convincing showing by your patrin. It's 20 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 2: against a good, if not flawed, fatally flawed team because 21 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 2: of their offensive line, but yeah, I thought, all in all, 22 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:15,680 Speaker 2: Man could not have asked for more entertaining Saturday of football. Obviously, 23 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 2: I wasn't real happy with the way the night game went. 24 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:20,320 Speaker 2: And I'm gonna have to forbid you from ever wearing 25 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 2: a Packers hat on the day of a Packers playoff 26 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:24,480 Speaker 2: game again, Matt. 27 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 3: But no, it was a pretty fun week in of football. 28 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 1: Up by eighteen points in in the second half, like 29 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:37,120 Speaker 1: zero to five, ending to the year for the Packers. 30 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 1: I don't know. 31 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 2: Late game meltdowns are in Matt Lafleur's DNA. And you 32 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 2: want to know a fun stat, Matt, not if you're 33 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 2: a Packers fan, Packers and Bears played three times. Do 34 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 2: you know how many offensive snaps the Bears took with 35 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 2: a lead in those three games. 36 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 1: I'm gonna say four zero. 37 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 2: Never, they never took one snap with a lead and 38 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 2: managed to win two of those three games. 39 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:10,399 Speaker 1: And of them that's amazing. Wow, that is that's amazing. 40 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:15,799 Speaker 1: Oh my gosh. All right, interesting stuff. A couple of 41 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 1: things to look at as we go ahead. From a 42 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: trend perspective. If the Rams and the Bills both closes favorites, 43 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:26,080 Speaker 1: it'll be the first time in fifty four years where 44 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 1: we've had two road favorites in the divisional round of 45 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 1: the playoffs. We just don't see this very often. This 46 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:36,120 Speaker 1: is a very unique year. Last week we had a 47 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: lot of road favorites. The Bills went off as a 48 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 1: road dog, but they were a road favorite for most 49 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 1: of the week. We saw the biggest number in the 50 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:47,920 Speaker 1: history of the NFL from a road playoff perspective, with 51 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 1: ten and a half for the Rams. They won, but 52 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 1: they did not cover. So this is and you mentioned 53 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:56,360 Speaker 1: it in the in the top about the unpredictability of 54 00:02:56,360 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: what we thought could excuse me, could happen it from 55 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:04,239 Speaker 1: a betting perspective, it was a very unpredictable weekend in 56 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,959 Speaker 1: terms of where the money was going. And the books 57 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 1: did fairly well because well, the professionals came in and 58 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: hammered the Rams all week long, got that thing up 59 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:15,359 Speaker 1: to a high as eleven before the buyeback happened. That 60 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 1: came no close and it didn't come close to covering. 61 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:19,799 Speaker 1: And then we have you know, now we've got the 62 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 1: teams on the by playing, we have Seattle, and we 63 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:25,360 Speaker 1: have Denver coming in that's obviously going to impact where 64 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:29,360 Speaker 1: we are from a numbers perspective, this is to me 65 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 1: a very difficult handicapping weekend. But the Broncos being a 66 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: dog is still and we'll get into it. I'm still 67 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 1: stunned at this that they are a dog. It's the 68 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 1: fourth time in the last forty years a team off 69 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 1: of bye in the divisional round is not favored like 70 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 1: this is. They are the number one seed and they're 71 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 1: off a by like this is always one hundred percent 72 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 1: they're going to be the favorite, and right now the 73 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: Broncos are a dog to the bill on Saturday. Let's 74 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: start with that game, Pat, I don't understand this at all. 75 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 1: I like Broncos money line gave me Denver to win 76 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 1: this game. What am I missing? 77 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 3: Well? 78 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 2: Do you think the Broncos are ultimately going to go 79 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 2: off as dogs in this one? Because this line has 80 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 2: been all over the place, and you know, I was 81 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 2: looking at various sites this morning. I didn't It's a 82 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:25,839 Speaker 2: different number on every site right right. 83 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,039 Speaker 3: This one is bouncing around all over the place. 84 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:31,840 Speaker 2: So I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos wound up 85 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 2: being one and a half point favorites in this one. 86 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 2: But maybe not because people believe in the Josh Allen magic, 87 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 2: and that is kind of where I'm at. Matt, like 88 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 2: I've already lost once betting against Josh Allen. We both 89 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,159 Speaker 2: like the Jaguars money line. I don't think it was 90 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 2: a bad bet. I mean that game went right down 91 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 2: to the end. But yeah, I do see it the 92 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,599 Speaker 2: same way you see it. The Broncos defense is the 93 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 2: best unit in this game, and they can ply immense 94 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,479 Speaker 2: pressure on quarterbacks. They have the most sacks in the 95 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:08,479 Speaker 2: league by nine, and if you go by DVA, the 96 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 2: Denver run defense is actually better than the Jaguars run defense. 97 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 2: And James Cook had fifteen carries for forty six yards 98 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 2: against the Jaguars last week. But then again, betting on 99 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 2: Bow Nicks against well, I'm not sure i'd call the 100 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 2: Bill's a good pass defense, but it's an above average 101 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 2: pass defense, and Knicks has not played that well since 102 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 2: his four touchdown game against the Packers in Week fifteen. 103 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,480 Speaker 2: Last three games, he's been pretty average to maybe below. 104 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:39,600 Speaker 3: Now maybe R J. 105 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,799 Speaker 2: Harvey carries the day against a bad Bill's run defense, 106 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 2: but Harvey didn't really pop until December, and he's averaging 107 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:50,160 Speaker 2: three point seven yards of carry I don't think I'm 108 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 2: gonna be betting either side in this game. I just 109 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 2: don't have a good feel for it. Maybe you're feeling 110 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 2: stronger about the Broncos than I am. I do feel 111 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 2: better about betting the under in this game forty six 112 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 2: point five. I just it's hard for me to imagine 113 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 2: either team putting up more than about twenty seven points. 114 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 2: That that's the ceiling, and I think the floor could 115 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 2: be a lot lower with each team's individual total in 116 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 2: this game. 117 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 3: So forty six and a half. 118 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 2: Granted, the weather is looking like it's going to be 119 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,839 Speaker 2: just fine forty eight degrees light wind according to the 120 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:29,480 Speaker 2: forecast I looked at. But you know, I kind of 121 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:31,919 Speaker 2: like the under here. I'm not touching either side in 122 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 2: this game. 123 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 1: I like the Broncos to win the game. And as 124 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 1: a Patriot fan, and we're talking about the second game, 125 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 1: I would love Buffalo to win this game. I would 126 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:43,160 Speaker 1: be afraid of the Bills showing up for an AFC 127 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:47,279 Speaker 1: Championship game in New England because that is ratings gold 128 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: and that is a high pressure situation for Drake May 129 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 1: and the Patriots to go up against the guy who 130 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 1: has for the last five seasons owned the AFC East 131 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:58,479 Speaker 1: and having a chance to go to the Super Bowl, 132 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: which was and if Josh Allen can't do it this year, 133 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:04,479 Speaker 1: I'm not sure Josh Allen will ever play in a 134 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 1: Super Bowl if he cannot get past who he has 135 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 1: to get passed, And so right now in his path 136 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: is Bonis, Drake May and CJ. Stroud like these. This 137 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 1: should be wins here for the Buffalo Bills. They should 138 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 1: get there. Here's why I don't think they're going to. 139 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 1: I couldn't figure out why Jacksonville wasn't running the football 140 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 1: in the second half of that game. It was bizarre. 141 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 1: There was some really weird play calling being done in 142 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 1: the wild card weekend. Your team was driving me crazy. 143 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 1: I couldn't figure out what the hell Matt Lafleur was 144 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 1: doing in the fourth quarter. I know they couldn't run 145 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 1: the football that effectively, but at the end, how are 146 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: you not running and making the Bears use all their 147 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 1: timeouts and bleed the clock down as much as possible. 148 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 1: That made no sense. The Bills can't stop the run. 149 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 1: Couldn't figure out why the Jaguars were not running the 150 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 1: football in the second half against the Bills, Like they 151 00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 1: were just Trevor Lawrence happy for whatever reason, and you 152 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: saw what happened. The game ends on an interception thrown 153 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 1: by Trevor Lawrence. So I think this is Sean Payton 154 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: going to take a look at this Bills team and saying, 155 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 1: you know what, we got to run the ball. That's 156 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 1: why I'm with you. The under is probably the best 157 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:15,320 Speaker 1: player in the game at forty six and a half. 158 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 1: I don't think Sean Payton is going to allow bo 159 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 1: Nicks to throw the ball thirty times. I think he's 160 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: going to want this offense to be conservative and to 161 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: go ahead and rely on the defense. And frankly, Jacksonville 162 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 1: got after and beat up Josh Allen in their game. 163 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 1: I mean he had a knee, he had a head, 164 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 1: he had a hand, like there's all these injuries that 165 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 1: happened to Josh Allen in the first half, and I 166 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: was wondering whether he was going to be able to 167 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: actually make it throughout the whole game. This is the 168 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: best pass rush in the NFL, and these guys are 169 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:48,199 Speaker 1: going to be at altitude, They're going to be at 170 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: home in a really tough environment, and I think they 171 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: get after him like crazy and create really big problems. 172 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 1: And I like the secondary a lot more than Jacksonville's secondary. 173 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:01,680 Speaker 1: Don't think they're gonna be able to throw the ball 174 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 1: nearly as effectively as they do. I'll say this, Brandon 175 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 1: Cooks is not getting wide open down the field against 176 00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:10,839 Speaker 1: this team, against the Broncos the way he did against 177 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars. This defense is not gonna blow it 178 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 1: the way the Jaguars defense blew it by allowing a 179 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: guy off the street to come in and make the 180 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 1: biggest catch of the year for the Buffalo Bills. I 181 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 1: don't think that happens. That's why I like the Broncos. 182 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that call. I mean, if you force 183 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 2: me to play this one, that's who I'm taking. I 184 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:32,080 Speaker 2: just I don't feel good about betting against Josh Allen 185 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 2: two weeks in a row and potentially losing on it. 186 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 2: That's the only thing. But I mean, I see true, 187 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 2: I see the game sort of your way. I very 188 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 2: much agree with the premise that there is no way 189 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 2: that Sean Payton ETN was averaging almost seven yards per 190 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 2: carry against the Bills running the ball and somehow he 191 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 2: only got ten rushing attempts. I don't think Sean Peyton 192 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 2: makes that same mistake. He's gonna run the ball and 193 00:09:57,600 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 2: take the ball out of Bowenick's his hands as much 194 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 2: as possible. He doesn't want this game to be Bo 195 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:05,960 Speaker 2: Nicks versus Josh Allen. No, no, you know, even with 196 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 2: the better defense, you just don't want the game to 197 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:13,679 Speaker 2: come down to that. Yeah, you know, shoot out at 198 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 2: the Okay Corral with those two, Josh Allen is winning 199 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:20,319 Speaker 2: every time. Run the ball, play good defense, win the game. 200 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 2: So I think I see the game very much the 201 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 2: same way you do, just not quite as confident in 202 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 2: the Broncos as you are. 203 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 1: Sean Payton at home in the playoffs is seven and 204 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 1: three straight up the Broncos this year as underdogs went 205 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,319 Speaker 1: four and one against the spread. We'll see where that 206 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: number closes, but as of the time of taping here today, 207 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:44,679 Speaker 1: the Bills are favored on the road against the Broncos, 208 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,320 Speaker 1: which I again, I don't know if we get there, 209 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:49,800 Speaker 1: but right now it is someone of a surprise to 210 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: see that that's actually what we're looking at nightcap on 211 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 1: Saturday night. It is the San Francisco forty nine ers 212 00:10:56,440 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 1: limping literally into Seattle, a place where they played in 213 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: Week eighteen and they got dominated. Now they go up 214 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 1: against a team in Seattle who is rested and waiting, 215 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 1: and the twelfth man is going to be at full 216 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 1: throat the entire game. I like brock Party. I have 217 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,439 Speaker 1: futures on both these teams. I have fourteen to one 218 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,679 Speaker 1: tickets on the forty nine Ers in fourteen to one 219 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 1: tickets on Seattle. I'm not sure I'm doing anything with 220 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 1: this game on a side perspective as of yet. But 221 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:26,880 Speaker 1: if I was going to bet this, I'm laying the 222 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: points because it's Sam Darnold who is favored by six 223 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 1: points or more, and this dude, when he's favored by 224 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:36,679 Speaker 1: six points or more, this guy rex the opponent, and 225 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:40,839 Speaker 1: he is an absolute bet on when he's favored by six, seven, 226 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 1: eight points, like he's going to be here in this game. 227 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 1: If I was going to bet it, I lay Seattle. 228 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:48,199 Speaker 1: Not sure I'm going to because it is the playoffs 229 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 1: and this forty hundred team has some voodoo magic that 230 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:53,440 Speaker 1: I can't really figure out defensively. But what do you 231 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 1: make of Seahawks hosting the Niners? 232 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:55,960 Speaker 2: Yeah? 233 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 3: I like the Seahawks a lot. 234 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 2: Here seven and a half I know it's a lot 235 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 2: to lay against a quality team, but just a couple 236 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 2: of things. First of all, a huge rest advantage for 237 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 2: the Seahawks. They're coming off of buy the forty nine 238 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,319 Speaker 2: Ers have to play on five days rest. The league 239 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 2: really gave them the short end of the stick, making 240 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 2: them play on Sunday and then having to come back 241 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,199 Speaker 2: and play on Saturday. 242 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 1: Same thing for the Bills, by the way, too, the Broncos. 243 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:27,080 Speaker 1: It's the same thing, both teams on short weeks. Both 244 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 1: of the Bills and the Niners both got the short 245 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:30,079 Speaker 1: end of the playoff schedule. 246 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:34,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, and then what we saw in Week eighteen. We 247 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 2: saw the Seahawks dominate the forty nine Ers. Final score 248 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 2: only thirteen to three, but it was way more one 249 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 2: sided than that score would suggest. The Seahawks outgained the 250 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 2: forty nine Ers three hundred and sixty one yards to 251 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 2: one hundred and seventy three. They more than doubled up 252 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 2: San Francisco's yardage in that game, So we have that 253 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 2: recent data points. 254 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 3: This is a bad forty nine Ers defense. 255 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 2: Matt and I think they were very fortunate to get 256 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:00,680 Speaker 2: a wild card matchup against an Eagles offense that had 257 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:06,239 Speaker 2: been disjointed all season, and you know, yes, probably beyond disjointed, 258 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 2: flat out broken last week in the wild card round, 259 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 2: and then the importance of George Kittle to the forty 260 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:16,679 Speaker 2: nine ers offense just can't be overstated. So losing him 261 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 2: to a torn achilles is just catastrophic. Not only was 262 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 2: he the forty nine ers best pass catcher, and I 263 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:26,199 Speaker 2: believe Brock Purdy's passer rating when throwing to George Kittle 264 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 2: this season was the highest of any quarterback throwing to any. 265 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 3: Pass catcher this year. 266 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 2: I believe of all the batteries in the league, Purdy 267 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 2: to Kittle was number one and passer rating. So it's 268 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 2: not just that though, it is like what he means 269 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 2: to the running game because he's such a great run blocker. 270 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:47,080 Speaker 2: Kittle hurt his ankle in the first half of the 271 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 2: forty nine ers season opener and didn't come back until 272 00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 2: Week seven, I believe, And when Kittle was out, Christian 273 00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 2: McCaffrey barely averaged three yards per carry. 274 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:56,679 Speaker 3: Running the ball. 275 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 2: After kill came back, McCaffrey averaged something like four point 276 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 2: three yards per carry, which you know isn't great in 277 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,080 Speaker 2: terms of efficiency, but it at least gave the forty 278 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 2: nine Ers a credible run game once Kittle was back, 279 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 2: and it really was incredible when Kittle was out. So 280 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:13,319 Speaker 2: I don't know how the forty nine Ers run the 281 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 2: ball against the Seahawks, who have the best run defense 282 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 2: in the league. This just too many factors seem to 283 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 2: be working in the Seahawks favor here, So I will 284 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 2: lay this seven and a half points with them, and 285 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 2: I kind of like this game over. I mean, we 286 00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 2: got a thirteen to three game last time around. 287 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 3: I can't take. 288 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 2: The under in any game involving the forty nine ers 289 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 2: defense right now. 290 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think forty five and a half feels a 291 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 1: little bit light, even though they're right. We did. We 292 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 1: did see it differently in week A team with a 293 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 1: lower scoring game. But you know, the number Sam Darnold 294 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 1: as a six point favorite or more in his career 295 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 1: is thirteen and oh straight up, He's ten and three 296 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 1: against the number. The Seahawks have won ten straight home 297 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 1: playoff games outright, when you have fans in stands. Seattle 298 00:14:57,000 --> 00:15:01,400 Speaker 1: did lose their COVID game against the Rams in excuse 299 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 1: me in twenty twenty, but they have won ten straight 300 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 1: playoff games at home. The twelve men making its name 301 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 1: and making its no make itself known. If you like 302 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 1: the Niners. The forty nine Ers have won eleven consecutive 303 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 1: wild card in Divisional round playoff games as a franchise. 304 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 1: In Kyle Shanahan is seven and oh straight up and 305 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 1: six and one against the spread in the divisional in 306 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 1: wild card rounds. He's also three and oh straight up 307 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 1: as the on the road as a dog in both 308 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 1: the wild card and divisional rounds. So I'm a little 309 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 1: bit concerned just about the magic. And that's I mean, 310 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: I'm with you. If I'm betting this, I am laying 311 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 1: it with Seattle. I'll probably be teasing it if I 312 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: have to really, you know, think about what I'm gonna 313 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 1: wind up doing. I may combine the first two games. 314 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 1: If the Broncos are a home dog, I may take 315 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 1: Broncos money line. But I also may tease the Broncos 316 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 1: up and take this number down from Seattle from seven 317 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:54,200 Speaker 1: and a half down to one and a half. But 318 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 1: I would be very surprised to see the Seahawks lose 319 00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 1: this game here against the forty nine, just given all 320 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 1: the injuries. I mean, at some point it's gonna catch 321 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 1: up to the forty nine Ers. 322 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 2: That's yeah, I mean that's what like those Shanahan trends are. 323 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 2: They do make it a little frightening to bet against him, 324 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 2: especially laying more than a touchdown. 325 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, that hook is a little scary. 326 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 2: But it almost does seem like just because of all 327 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:26,040 Speaker 2: the injuries, it almost seems like it's sort of as 328 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 2: outdated as trend as that the Steelers on Monday nights, 329 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 2: you know what I mean, It's just this is just 330 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 2: a bad Steelers team and like that was the problem 331 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 2: and here I think it's just like too many injuries 332 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 2: for the forty nine Ers to overcome against a really 333 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 2: good team on. 334 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 3: Both sides of the ball. 335 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 2: I mean, the Seahawks offense isn't great, but it's it's 336 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 2: pretty decent and Donald is a favorite exactly. Like if 337 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,560 Speaker 2: this was a tougher defense, I'd have more concerns about, 338 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 2: you know, maybe Donald being the second best quarterback in 339 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 2: this matchup, But against the forty nine Ers defense, I 340 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 2: think Donald is probably going to look like the better 341 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 2: quarterback on Saturday Night. 342 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:08,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, It's also you know, when you look at the Steelers, 343 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: they were down seven to six, at half like they 344 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 1: were in that game. That final score is not going 345 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 1: to be telling the story as to what that game 346 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:19,920 Speaker 1: really was. It comes down to turnovers. If you turn 347 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 1: the football over, you're going to lose. In the NFL. 348 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 1: Somehow the Steelers could not capitalize and couldn't score off 349 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:31,439 Speaker 1: all those turnovers that the Texans gave Pittsburgh. So, like 350 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:34,120 Speaker 1: I think, if you're trying to paint the picture, how 351 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 1: do the forty nine Ers beat the Seahawks. Sam Darnold 352 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 1: throws three or four picks or he fumbles the football. 353 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:44,359 Speaker 1: That's how the upset happens is if there's turnovers. Because 354 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:46,879 Speaker 1: I couldn't get over and I was on Pittsburgh. I 355 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:48,720 Speaker 1: couldn't get over the fact that they I mean, that 356 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:51,719 Speaker 1: game should have been, you know, seventeen to seven, twenty 357 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 1: to seven by the time we get hit the half. 358 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 1: The inability to capitalize on the multiple mistakes by the Texans, 359 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:01,119 Speaker 1: they couldn't get the snapcount right game with the balls 360 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 1: on the field five times, there's five fumbles and they won, 361 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 1: and they throw a pick in the red zone like 362 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 1: that in the postseason, that does not happen, and that 363 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 1: happens like in Week three of the NFL. You can 364 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 1: get away with that, but in the playoffs you're not 365 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:16,399 Speaker 1: supposed to be able to get away with that and 366 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,360 Speaker 1: actually win the game. So if you're trying to paint 367 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:21,880 Speaker 1: the picture, how do the Niners win? That's how they win. 368 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 1: They have a crazy game with turnovers, and the turnover 369 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:25,880 Speaker 1: luck goes their way. 370 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 2: And their offense is better than the Steelers, they might 371 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:31,199 Speaker 2: be able to capitalize on those kinds of gestay, certainly 372 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 2: more than the Steelers. 373 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:33,640 Speaker 3: Did on Monday Night. 374 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 1: Absolutely, guys, reminder, this live stream is being brought to 375 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: you by our friends at hard Rock Bet. They are 376 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 1: Florida's sportsbook. 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In Indiana, if you are someone you 399 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,159 Speaker 4: know as a gambling problem, lants help called one eight 400 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:51,920 Speaker 4: hundred and nine with it gambling problem called one hundred 401 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 4: gambler In Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. 402 00:19:56,720 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 1: We go to my team, the Patriots, at home, and 403 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:02,640 Speaker 1: I Am going to be honest, I did not think 404 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 1: they were going to be favored against the Texans after 405 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 1: watching what that defense did in the second half to 406 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:11,400 Speaker 1: the Steelers. Patriots are two and a half point favorites. 407 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:14,119 Speaker 1: We'll see where the number winds up going here. But 408 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 1: Drake May, if we get back to three, which might 409 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 1: happen if it's three and it closes at three, Drake 410 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:24,639 Speaker 1: May is eleven to zero straight up. When the Patriots 411 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:28,920 Speaker 1: are three point favorites, are more. I initially was very 412 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:32,280 Speaker 1: concerned about this team and very nervous about the Texans, 413 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 1: and then did some diligence talk to some people, had conversations, 414 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: and I flipped and I'm on the Patriots. And the 415 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,920 Speaker 1: reason why I'm on the Patriots is because the offense 416 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 1: for Houston is not going to be able to run 417 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: the football. And this is a fate of CJ. Stroud 418 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 1: on the road, who played horribly against the Steelers. He 419 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:55,240 Speaker 1: was zero and two before that, and you saw why 420 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 1: he was ozero and two before that, and now no 421 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:01,679 Speaker 1: Nico Collins, who should be out with the concussion. I 422 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 1: don't think CJ. Stroud can do it. Pat I'll take 423 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 1: the Patriots laying two and a half or three. 424 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:11,120 Speaker 2: This is the game in the divisional round that vexes 425 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,920 Speaker 2: me more than any other. Matt like the line and 426 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 2: the total feel exactly right to me. And the Texans 427 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,640 Speaker 2: defense is the best unit in this game, I think. 428 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 2: And Drake May did enough against a good Chargers pass defense, 429 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 2: but it wasn't a great game for him. He made 430 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 2: some mistakes, he took five sacks through an interception, fumbled 431 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:33,959 Speaker 2: was it once or twice? 432 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 3: Twice? 433 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 1: Right? 434 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:39,080 Speaker 2: And now Drake May runs into an even better pass 435 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 2: defense with the Texans that he just faced with the Chargers. 436 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 2: Not that Drake May can't conquer any pass defense, but 437 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,639 Speaker 2: it's gonna be a challenge for him, and I don't 438 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:54,240 Speaker 2: expect him or any other quarterback to light up the Texans. 439 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, the Nico thing is interesting, Matt, So. 440 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 2: Only five days in between games, and you would think 441 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,400 Speaker 2: it's ninety nine point nine percent that he misses this game. 442 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:11,919 Speaker 3: But you know, if they were to rush him through protocol, 443 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 3: and I would not. 444 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:17,119 Speaker 2: Doubt that it happens like that will just kind of 445 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 2: lay bare the fact that the concussion protocol is kind 446 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 2: of a joke if he gets through it. 447 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:23,360 Speaker 3: Now. 448 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:27,119 Speaker 2: Christian Gonzalez also is a concussion, but he does have 449 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 2: a full week and doesn't have to travel, so I 450 00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 2: would say his odds of clearing the protocol are much 451 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 2: better than eCos. And you know, I like Jayden Higgins, 452 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 2: the rookie receiver for the Texans, a lot. I think 453 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,720 Speaker 2: he's going to be a really, really good player, But 454 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:45,200 Speaker 2: if he has to go against Christian Gonzales, I don't 455 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 2: know if he can be the difference maker the Texans 456 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,880 Speaker 2: need in the passing game, because, like you, I don't 457 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:53,520 Speaker 2: think the Texans are going to run the ball as 458 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 2: well as they did against the Steelers. 459 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 3: That kind of surprised me. 460 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,159 Speaker 2: The Steelers have a pretty good run defense and what 461 00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 2: he Mark said, over one hundred yards, but I don't 462 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 2: see that happening against the Patriots now that they've got, 463 00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:10,160 Speaker 2: you know, basically their core personnel that made their run 464 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 2: defense so good early in the season. It's all back 465 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 2: and healthy again, Milton Way, and I think people forgot. 466 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people forgot, well what the 467 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,160 Speaker 1: Patriots defense looked like up the middle when they had 468 00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:25,680 Speaker 1: Robert Spulane and Milton Williams both healthy and playing, because 469 00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 1: you can't run the middle on the Patriots anymore. You 470 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,080 Speaker 1: can bounce into the outside and you mean, you could 471 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 1: do some speed stuff to them, but you're not going 472 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 1: to go up the middle on them the way that 473 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:35,919 Speaker 1: Marx did in the game against the Steelers. Like that 474 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,919 Speaker 1: was North South running against the Steelers, and I couldn't 475 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:42,160 Speaker 1: believe how much success they had. I don't think they're 476 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,200 Speaker 1: going to have that success. And then that puts even 477 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,960 Speaker 1: more pressure on CJ. Stroud And I don't believe Nico 478 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:48,960 Speaker 1: Collins is going to play. Given how hard he hit 479 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 1: his head. Gonzales, it was sort of like a what 480 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:54,640 Speaker 1: he had a concussion from that, Like it didn't look 481 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 1: like that big of a play. So not to say 482 00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: that there's different levels of concussion, but they're kind of all. 483 00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 1: And Nico Collins was he had carted off the field. 484 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:05,639 Speaker 1: Gonzales didn't get carted off the field. He walked off 485 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,399 Speaker 1: the field under his own volition and they didn't come back. 486 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,880 Speaker 1: So I think Gonzales is going to play. I don't 487 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 1: think Nico Collins is going to play. And I think 488 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 1: the lack of playmakers on the road for the Texans 489 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 1: is going to be a really big problem against the 490 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 1: Patriot defense. That's why I love the under that this 491 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 1: is a dead undergame to me because I don't think 492 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,440 Speaker 1: the Patriots scored more than seventeen points. I think that 493 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,880 Speaker 1: that's their ceiling. But on the flip side, the Chargers 494 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,679 Speaker 1: scored three. I think the Texans score a little bit 495 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 1: more than that. But it's like a seventeen to thirteen 496 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,639 Speaker 1: type final to me here where the Patriots win, barely cover, 497 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 1: but they win, and I think the home crowd matters. 498 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,280 Speaker 1: I can't wait to see what the weather looks like here, 499 00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:49,240 Speaker 1: and traditionally teams dome. Teams going north in late January 500 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:52,479 Speaker 1: and the divisional round don't fare very well in New England. 501 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,840 Speaker 1: And we'll see if mother Nature shows up and delivers 502 00:24:56,359 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 1: nasty batch to the Texans. But this is about defense, 503 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 1: This is about protecting the football and I think getting 504 00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 1: that first win under Drake May's belt when Drake May 505 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 1: played poorly was huge for the confidence of this team 506 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,200 Speaker 1: because now I think they will be a bit more conservative, 507 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 1: run the ball a bit more and let's see what 508 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 1: they do against this Texans defense. I mean, I'm with you. 509 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:20,880 Speaker 1: The offensive line really big problem like a really big 510 00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,760 Speaker 1: problem with Will Anderson and company coming after Drake May. 511 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,959 Speaker 1: He hung onto the football way too long. That was 512 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,480 Speaker 1: September Drake May that we saw in the first playoff 513 00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:33,560 Speaker 1: game that can't happen against Texans. 514 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, and for what it's worth, Matt, as a Patriots fan, 515 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,120 Speaker 2: I think you would like the conditions a little more 516 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,640 Speaker 2: wintry than the early forecast is correct calling for six 517 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:47,040 Speaker 2: days out, so certainly this could change. But right now 518 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 2: they're saying thirty four degrees at kickoff, light wins and 519 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 2: no precipitation. 520 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:53,359 Speaker 3: So pretty yeah, pretty playable. 521 00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 2: I think if you're on the Texan side, you like 522 00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:58,600 Speaker 2: those conditions. 523 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 1: One hundred percent. Seawn Smith's referee in case you guys 524 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,920 Speaker 1: want to handicap referees. Home teams are twelve and three 525 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,080 Speaker 1: ats with Sean Smith as the head official this year. 526 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,880 Speaker 1: That was the best mark in the NFL. So from 527 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 1: an official standpoint, Patriots are happy to see Sean Smith 528 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,439 Speaker 1: being the referee. Guys. 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Learn more by logging onto Bettingpros dot 538 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 1: com slash Premium. Okay, we go to the night game. 539 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:51,040 Speaker 1: Are you gonna hate watch this? Because of the Bears 540 00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:53,919 Speaker 1: here and what they did to the Packers? Because Matthew 541 00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:57,720 Speaker 1: Stafford against Caleb Williams, Rams are favored here in this game. 542 00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,080 Speaker 1: I think that they should be. The total is pretty 543 00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,520 Speaker 1: high at fifty one and a half. I think both 544 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,879 Speaker 1: of us agree on the winner of this game, but 545 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:06,680 Speaker 1: I think we disagree on the way that we get 546 00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,160 Speaker 1: there from a total perspective. Where are you on Rams 547 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 1: at the Bears? 548 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:14,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, the Bears defense is really bad and we saw 549 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,960 Speaker 2: that in the first half of the game against the Packers. 550 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:19,960 Speaker 2: And then I agree with you, Matt, some of the 551 00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 2: play calling and offensive scheme not Matt Lafleur's finest hour 552 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:29,480 Speaker 2: in the second half of that game, so it's bad. 553 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,919 Speaker 2: And then they lost linebacker TJ. Edwards, who is an 554 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 2: important blue guy for that defense. And the Bears also 555 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,959 Speaker 2: had another pretty important injury. They lost their left tackle 556 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:42,560 Speaker 2: Ozzie Trapillo, who's played really well in his rookie season. 557 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:44,040 Speaker 2: Neither of those guys are going to be back. 558 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 3: They're both out for the rest of the playoffs. Those 559 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:47,119 Speaker 3: are major injuries. 560 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:52,479 Speaker 2: The Rams offense is just so dangerous and well rounded. 561 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:54,440 Speaker 2: They can beat you through the air. They've got two 562 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 2: dynamic pass catchers, they've got two dynamic running backs, and 563 00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 2: the Bears are chronically well Caleb Williams, at least, he 564 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 2: is a chronically slow starter, and I feel like a 565 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,600 Speaker 2: slow start could be just fatal in this game. So 566 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 2: I do really like the Rams here as far as 567 00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:17,160 Speaker 2: the total, matt Like, my first thought was over because 568 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,240 Speaker 2: I'm just betting this for. 569 00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:20,000 Speaker 3: The Bears defense. 570 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:23,439 Speaker 2: Basically, feeling like the Rams could quite easily put up 571 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:26,920 Speaker 2: thirty plus points. And you know, this Bears offense is 572 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,960 Speaker 2: pretty good too. I think they're going to score. But 573 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:33,520 Speaker 2: the forecast right now, they're calling for a game time 574 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 2: temperature of around eight to ten degrees and breathe ten 575 00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 2: to twenty miles an hour. That makes me feel a 576 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,920 Speaker 2: little less confident in the Rams, even though I think 577 00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:47,720 Speaker 2: they're clearly the superior team. And it definitely makes me 578 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:51,600 Speaker 2: feel less confident in anything over fifty. So I mean, 579 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:55,400 Speaker 2: unless the forecasting I'm not betting this right now, I'm 580 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 2: hoping the weather forecast is going to bring the total 581 00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:02,000 Speaker 2: down to something like forty eight forty eight and a half, Okay, 582 00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:03,280 Speaker 2: then I'll jump on the over. 583 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,120 Speaker 1: Okay, fifty one and a half. I like the under 584 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,200 Speaker 1: just because it's a playoff game and I can't bet 585 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:09,680 Speaker 1: over fifty one and a half in a playoff game. 586 00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,760 Speaker 1: I just I've watched too much football to go. Okay, 587 00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:14,200 Speaker 1: maybe if it may be a shootout, but I'd be 588 00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 1: very surprised in Chicago if we get a shootout. Turnovers, 589 00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 1: and the Bears have been extremely fortunate this year with 590 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:24,120 Speaker 1: turnover luck. If they get turnovers, yes, that's one way 591 00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 1: how they could score and keep themselves in the game. 592 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,160 Speaker 1: But if this number goes to four, this is nuts. 593 00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,800 Speaker 1: Home dogs of four points or more in the last 594 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 1: fifty years in the playoffs are nine to zero against 595 00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,440 Speaker 1: the number. So let's watch and see it's three and 596 00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 1: a half. If it gets to four, that's kind of 597 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 1: the kiss of death here for a road playoff team. 598 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:45,560 Speaker 1: Again we talked about at the top, this is a 599 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:49,480 Speaker 1: very wonky year in terms of the numbers and the 600 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:53,080 Speaker 1: betting because the NFL has been very topsy turvy and 601 00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,640 Speaker 1: the Rams I'm with you are the superior team, but 602 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:59,520 Speaker 1: this is the weather could be the ultimate equalizer. The crowd. 603 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:04,320 Speaker 1: I mean, Chicago is going bonkers for the Bears right now. 604 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,680 Speaker 1: That's going to be a really hard environment for the 605 00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 1: Rams to walk in. And they did not pass the 606 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 1: weather test last year in this round at Philadelphia, where 607 00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,160 Speaker 1: the snow showed up and the whole game went to 608 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 1: crap for the Rams. They couldn't do anything in the weather. 609 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 1: So this is another weather conversation for the La Rams. 610 00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,080 Speaker 1: Can they, as a West Coast team, Dome team, go 611 00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 1: to a very difficult weather environment and win. Maybe. I mean, 612 00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:32,960 Speaker 1: if Matthew Stafford plays the way he played last week, 613 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:36,200 Speaker 1: sure they should win this football game. If Kayleb Williams 614 00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,160 Speaker 1: and I'm with You gets off to the same start 615 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,240 Speaker 1: he had, If it's twenty one to three at half, again, 616 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,440 Speaker 1: I don't see the Rams making the mistakes the Packers made, 617 00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:47,920 Speaker 1: and the Rams win the game. But if it's tied 618 00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:51,280 Speaker 1: at the break, if it's ten to ten at the break, 619 00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:54,720 Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, I'm with you. I like 620 00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:56,720 Speaker 1: the Rams. I think the better play is to lay 621 00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:58,760 Speaker 1: the points with the Rams, But I don't want to 622 00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:02,040 Speaker 1: go near four. Needs to be three, three and a half. 623 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 1: We get to four, I'm gonna be a little bit 624 00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:05,920 Speaker 1: more on the hesitant side to back la. 625 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:07,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, let me ask you about that. 626 00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:11,360 Speaker 2: And this is obviously unknowable, and more about your instinct, 627 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 2: since you have followed this kind of stuff for a 628 00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:17,320 Speaker 2: long time, which way would you anticipate based on what 629 00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,040 Speaker 2: we saw with the Rams and the smart money last 630 00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,800 Speaker 2: week against the Panthers? Do you anticipate this getting to four? 631 00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:26,560 Speaker 2: Is it more likely the UH to go the other way? 632 00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 1: In your opinion, I think it's more likely to go down. 633 00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 1: I personally, I think it's more likely to go I mean, 634 00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:33,480 Speaker 1: it opened at four, it was back to three and 635 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:37,120 Speaker 1: a half immediately, so there are some fours in the market. 636 00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:40,520 Speaker 1: But my gut tells me he closes at three, just 637 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:42,760 Speaker 1: because that's an I mean, I think the pros are 638 00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:46,160 Speaker 1: going to be too greedy. They're going to take the 639 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:48,719 Speaker 1: points and just say, you know, even though the Rams 640 00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,600 Speaker 1: are the better team on paper, it's a road team, 641 00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:55,000 Speaker 1: it's a road favorite. It's a West Coast team, Dome 642 00:31:55,040 --> 00:32:00,320 Speaker 1: team in ten degree temperatures in Chicago, slick football, you know, 643 00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,080 Speaker 1: different type of environment. Take the home team that's used 644 00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:04,840 Speaker 1: to practicing in it and used to working with it. 645 00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 1: So I mean, early indications are that the Rams are 646 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,080 Speaker 1: going to get a lot of love and that the 647 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:12,600 Speaker 1: over is gonna get a lot of love. But I 648 00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,200 Speaker 1: think once the market, once the limits open up, I 649 00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:16,760 Speaker 1: think you're gonna see a lot of under money and 650 00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:18,480 Speaker 1: you're gonna see a lot of a lot of Rams 651 00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:21,160 Speaker 1: money or sorry Bears money show up in the market 652 00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 1: to drive the thing. So I think closes a three. 653 00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, I tend to agree with you on that. 654 00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:29,280 Speaker 1: I'm also looking. I don't like Ben Johnson, It's gonna 655 00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,239 Speaker 1: be I don't like Ben Johnson. I didn't. That's why 656 00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:35,320 Speaker 1: I bet against him against Matt Lafleur. I like the 657 00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,960 Speaker 1: creativity that Ben Johnson has. I don't like the bravado 658 00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,120 Speaker 1: and the ego of Ben Johnson because I think he 659 00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:45,040 Speaker 1: coaches with ego, so he's going to target on his back. 660 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,680 Speaker 1: I think anytime an NFL coach and the official account 661 00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:52,040 Speaker 1: of the team puts out a video of the coat 662 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:55,800 Speaker 1: saying bleep the Packers or bleep whoever in that way, 663 00:32:55,920 --> 00:33:00,320 Speaker 1: and I bleeping hate those guys. The NFL, I generally 664 00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,680 Speaker 1: doesn't like this stuff. Okay, they generally don't like coaches 665 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:04,760 Speaker 1: that act this way. And not to say that a 666 00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:06,920 Speaker 1: call is going to go to go against Chicago or whatnot, 667 00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:10,200 Speaker 1: but I I've watched a football that like, I'm not 668 00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,040 Speaker 1: sure that the Bears are going to be looking for 669 00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,040 Speaker 1: any calls coming up in this game. Like if there's 670 00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:17,080 Speaker 1: a crucial decision, a crucial call, I wouldn't want to 671 00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 1: be on Chicago needing that given what Ben Johnson's been doing. 672 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, it seems like, you know, Ben Johnson, I obviously 673 00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:26,600 Speaker 2: he's not making any friends within the Packers organization, and 674 00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,200 Speaker 2: it seems like he's burned some bridges within the Lions 675 00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:30,200 Speaker 2: organization too. 676 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:35,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, here's the thing. It's not only are you. 677 00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,959 Speaker 2: You know, incentivizing those two teams to really get up 678 00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:41,600 Speaker 2: for you in future meetings, Like Dan Campbell and Matt 679 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:45,000 Speaker 2: Leaflora have friends in the league, like if you run 680 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:48,760 Speaker 2: into one of their friends, like they might not hesitate 681 00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,640 Speaker 2: to stick it to you, like if they get you down. 682 00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 2: So it is probably something that in hindsight in a 683 00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:59,240 Speaker 2: few years, Ben Johnson might regret. 684 00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:03,680 Speaker 1: I would agree. I think it's a youthful thing. And again, 685 00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:06,760 Speaker 1: I like hatred in sports. I'm a Red Sox fan, 686 00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:08,960 Speaker 1: I'm a Patriot fan. I hate the Jets, I hate 687 00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:11,399 Speaker 1: the Yankees. I like it. I don't like that these 688 00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:13,680 Speaker 1: teams have become so buddy buddy. And it started with 689 00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,160 Speaker 1: David Ortiz becoming friends with all the Yankees, and that 690 00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,600 Speaker 1: really cool down the rivalry between the Red Sox and 691 00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,200 Speaker 1: the Yankees. I like blood feuds. I like this from 692 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,680 Speaker 1: a sport perspective, a content perspective. I like it. If 693 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,000 Speaker 1: I were a Bear fan, I'd be concerned. I'd go, 694 00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,799 Speaker 1: uh oh, this is kind of out of character for 695 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:34,320 Speaker 1: anybody with Chicago. Like you know, Mike Dicka was a stoic, 696 00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:38,120 Speaker 1: very passionate person. Jim McMahon, I get it. But your 697 00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:40,600 Speaker 1: quarterback can be like that. I'm not sure you want 698 00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,600 Speaker 1: your head coach to be like that, because he does 699 00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:47,120 Speaker 1: coach play calling from ego. Sometimes and every once in 700 00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:50,279 Speaker 1: a while, almost once a game, I'll ask myself what 701 00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:52,400 Speaker 1: was he doing? Why did Ben Johnson call that play? 702 00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,360 Speaker 1: Why did he call that? And it sometimes backfires in 703 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,400 Speaker 1: a bad spot for the Bears from a referee standpoint. 704 00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,360 Speaker 1: For this game, Ed Hockley, sorry Hockey, son of Ed Hockeley. 705 00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:05,000 Speaker 1: Sean Hockeley is the head official over the last since 706 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:09,239 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, the under seventy one fifty four 707 00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:12,319 Speaker 1: and three when Shawn Hockley is the head referee, that 708 00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,360 Speaker 1: is the third best mark of the fifty four refs 709 00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,400 Speaker 1: that have worked games since two thousand and eight in 710 00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:21,839 Speaker 1: the NFL. So they don't throw many flags, so they're 711 00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:24,239 Speaker 1: gonna let the guys play, which I think helps the 712 00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:26,800 Speaker 1: Rams to be quite honest. In terms of this, I 713 00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,120 Speaker 1: think the Bears receivers are going to want to see 714 00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,759 Speaker 1: flags come out to help Caleb Whinning's scrambling around and 715 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 1: running for his life like he likes to do. I 716 00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,400 Speaker 1: think they would rather have flags come out, so not 717 00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:41,680 Speaker 1: a flag happy crew showing up in Chicago coming up 718 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:46,480 Speaker 1: for this, guys, reminder that if you have not gone 719 00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,240 Speaker 1: and scored six months of betting pros Premium for free, 720 00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:51,200 Speaker 1: You can do so by just making a deposit and 721 00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:54,040 Speaker 1: placing a wager at a partner of sportsbook Premium gives 722 00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 1: you access to sharp ai, our betting systems, the prop 723 00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:58,719 Speaker 1: bet cheat sheet in the same game, parley builder, all 724 00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:01,960 Speaker 1: tools you need to bet. Claim your upgrade now at 725 00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:06,800 Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com Slash Premium. Any bet you want to highlight, 726 00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:08,960 Speaker 1: pat anyone that you like going in. I know it's 727 00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:10,960 Speaker 1: only Tuesday, but anything you like for the weekend. 728 00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:15,080 Speaker 2: I think right now I feel most confident about Seahawks 729 00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:18,239 Speaker 2: minus seven and a half, Like that's just there are 730 00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:21,040 Speaker 2: too many things working against the forty nine ers, the 731 00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:25,400 Speaker 2: rest advantage, the Kittle injury, you know, all the defensive 732 00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:27,480 Speaker 2: injuries that have piled up, and what we saw in 733 00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:30,680 Speaker 2: week eighteen. I just feel like seven and a half 734 00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:34,320 Speaker 2: is a scary number. But I think i'd lay nine. 735 00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:35,920 Speaker 1: Wow. 736 00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:39,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think it's going to be pretty 737 00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,760 Speaker 2: one sided in that game. I'll be surprised if it isn't. 738 00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:45,600 Speaker 1: Yeah. I think from a Seahawks perspective, you win that 739 00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:49,600 Speaker 1: game easily, not a lot of stress, and then you 740 00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:53,719 Speaker 1: host the NFC Championship game and you know, regardless of 741 00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:55,920 Speaker 1: which team shows up. It's probably gonna be the Rams. 742 00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,640 Speaker 1: They're going to show up. And you got a barn 743 00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,680 Speaker 1: burner of a football game between the Rams and the Seahawks, 744 00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:04,799 Speaker 1: and that number is probably three. And we see if 745 00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,400 Speaker 1: Seattle can get themselves to the super Bowl. It's a 746 00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,600 Speaker 1: West Coast team with the West Coast Super Bowl. You 747 00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,080 Speaker 1: know that Seahawk fans are going to invade San Francisco. 748 00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,439 Speaker 1: I mean, if the Niners somehow shocked the world, they're 749 00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:17,279 Speaker 1: going to be on the road, most likely to LA 750 00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:19,879 Speaker 1: with a chance to play the Super Bowl in their 751 00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:22,759 Speaker 1: home building being all banged up. Like, there's so many 752 00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:25,480 Speaker 1: cool storylines that could come out of this here on 753 00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:28,360 Speaker 1: the NFC NFC side of the things, from the AFC 754 00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,400 Speaker 1: side of things, for me, I like the under the 755 00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,960 Speaker 1: best in the Patriots Texans game. I don't think we're 756 00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,160 Speaker 1: seeing any offense from either side. I think it's an 757 00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:37,640 Speaker 1: under forty one, and I'd be surprised if that number 758 00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:40,200 Speaker 1: closes in the forties. My gut tells me we're probably 759 00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,320 Speaker 1: at thirty nine thirty eight. Probably from a closing perspective, 760 00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:45,880 Speaker 1: Pats probably don't score more than seventeen points, and I 761 00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 1: don't trust ce De Stroud to do very much against 762 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:51,319 Speaker 1: his Patriots defense if he even with Nico Collins without 763 00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,200 Speaker 1: them even less so so for me, I think it's 764 00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:57,719 Speaker 1: an undergame with Patriots and the Texans. We're going to 765 00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,239 Speaker 1: be back next week to recap all of this and 766 00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:04,439 Speaker 1: to preview the championship rounds. It's getting down there. Only 767 00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:07,760 Speaker 1: three after this weekend. We've got three NFL football games 768 00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:11,600 Speaker 1: left in the season, which is a bummer. Best of 769 00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:13,759 Speaker 1: luck to you guys in your bets. He's Pat fitz Morris. 770 00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:15,440 Speaker 1: I'm at Parol. Talk to you next week here on 771 00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:17,719 Speaker 1: the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Thanks for listening to the 772 00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:18,960 Speaker 1: Betting Pros podcast. 773 00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:21,560 Speaker 4: If you love the show, the best freeway to support 774 00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:23,640 Speaker 4: us is by leaving a positive review on. 775 00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:25,200 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 776 00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:28,160 Speaker 4: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 777 00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:30,120 Speaker 4: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. 778 00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,439 Speaker 1: Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com 779 00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:35,520 Speaker 1: slash Betting Pros.