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Speaker 1: This episode is presented by Yahoo Fantasy. The most valuable

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Speaker 1: commodity I know of is information at five dollars.

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Speaker 2: This is a rale up the track ship. You're saying

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Speaker 2: that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 1: Though humans need fantasy to be.

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Speaker 2: My goodness, mine, prone.

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Speaker 1: Best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 3: All Right, hit that horn Veriables saves.

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Speaker 1: What's going on? Everybody?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast from the Action Network

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Speaker 2: and Fantasy Labs.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Rabon.

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Speaker 2: And today we are going to get into some best

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Speaker 2: Ball strategy for this season. If you haven't already checked

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Speaker 2: out our Experts Guide to Fantasy to be sure you do.

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Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, you're on that one very jam.

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Speaker 2: Packed episode and we still couldn't talk about best Ball

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Speaker 2: really at all because it's it is so different in

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Speaker 2: terms of the strategy.

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Speaker 1: So how you feeling about this one?

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Speaker 2: You're ready to get into another marathon recording session that's

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Speaker 2: probably longer than our guy DP wants this wants it

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Speaker 2: to be.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, but like you said, completely different strategy compared

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Speaker 3: to traditional you know, head to head formats. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: looking forward to hopping.

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Speaker 2: In with this yeah, and we're gonna go first half

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Speaker 2: of the episode is gonna be all of our strategies

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Speaker 2: and tips, and then we're gonna get into some players

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Speaker 2: we like in the second half.

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Speaker 1: So it should be a good episode.

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Speaker 2: But before we jump in, we have a very cool announcement.

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Speaker 2: The Fantasy Labs app is now here. So if you

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Speaker 2: are getting a ready to go out there and try

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Speaker 2: to dominate your fantasy.

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Speaker 1: Football league this year, why not use.

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Speaker 2: The same projections that Sean and I use.

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Speaker 1: Well, guess what you can.

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Speaker 2: Our Fantasy Labs NFL subscription gives you access to our

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Speaker 2: player rankings, player projections, customizable draft cheat sheets, and more.

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Speaker 2: New subscribers, all you.

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Speaker 1: Gotta do use the code fl ex.

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Speaker 2: off at Fantasy labs dot com slash flex.

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Speaker 1: Now, let's go get.

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Speaker 2: This money when your league use code fl ex to

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Speaker 2: zero twenty hours off a Fantasy Labs subscription.

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Speaker 1: Sean best ball man.

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Speaker 2: It's a whole different beasts now, some of the same

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Speaker 2: things apply. You're still I think rewarded for taking risks,

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Speaker 2: you know, way you're in the draft versus earlier. But

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Speaker 2: I think you're rewarded for taking more risks in general,

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Speaker 2: So what.

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Speaker 1: Are your top tips?

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Speaker 2: You know, how are you approaching bestball that's different from

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Speaker 2: traditional fantasy leagues.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so just when it comes to best ball versus

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Speaker 3: traditional head to head season long leagues, how you win

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Speaker 3: is slightly different. So and traditional head to head season

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Speaker 3: long leagues, you're facing one team each week where you

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Speaker 3: simply need to score more points in them in order

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Speaker 3: to win that week. So obviously you still want big games.

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Speaker 3: You want players that have career years. You want guys

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Speaker 3: with upside you're drafting for, you know, upside talent, ceiling

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Speaker 3: and all that. But you still want a little bit

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Speaker 3: more consistency and higher floor when it comes to season

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Speaker 3: long because you are just facing one player, one person. However,

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Speaker 3: in best Ball, you're competing it's everyone in the league,

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Speaker 3: so it's you know, it's obviously a top heavy payout,

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Speaker 3: so you're trying to finish top three, top to top one.

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Speaker 3: You're trying to win it all. So the difference is

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Speaker 3: every point counts every single week. So if Juwan Jennings,

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Speaker 3: you know, has that massive three touchdown game and you

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Speaker 3: win your head to head league by thirty points at

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Speaker 3: a certain point, those those extra fantasy points didn't matter,

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Speaker 3: whereas in best Ball, every single one of those points matter.

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Speaker 3: So these insanely spiked weeks are critical for best Ball.

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Speaker 3: That's why I created the Best Ball points added metric,

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Speaker 3: where I'm actually taking how many extra points a player

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Speaker 3: is providing each week, so it actually, you know, those

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Speaker 3: spiked weeks are more valuable and best ball. So what

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Speaker 3: I found is, you know, players with a high best

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Speaker 3: ball added score, they tend to have way more volatile

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Speaker 3: you know, they have hot weeks, cold weeks, but they

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Speaker 3: have a higher ceiling. And you know, just one example

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Speaker 3: of that is someone like Alec Pierce last year, over

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Speaker 3: half the time last year he finished outside the top

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Speaker 3: forty so unusable scores and season long best ball, you

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Speaker 3: name it. He had a bunch of weeks where you

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Speaker 3: know he's putting up goose eggs, but you know, twenty

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Speaker 3: nine percent of the time or twenty seven percent of

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Speaker 3: the time, he finished inside the top twelve. Because you know,

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Speaker 3: he's he's catching these eighty r touchdowns. He's a deep

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Speaker 3: ball merchant, so he's getting these big explosive plays, but

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Speaker 3: you know they're just not consistent week to week, So

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Speaker 3: you know, someone like that is going to be way

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Speaker 3: more valuable in best ball because you don't have to,

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Speaker 3: you know, figure out when he's going to have his

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Speaker 3: good weeks versus not. So that's kind of the slight

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Speaker 3: difference when it comes to Best Ball is you're really

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Speaker 3: shooting for these spiked weeks, So consistency really isn't you

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Speaker 3: know what you're striving for. But yeah, with best Ball,

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Speaker 3: it's it's all about upside week to week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and there are there are even layers to that too,

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Speaker 2: because there's gonna be different contests where you know, you

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Speaker 2: are kind of playing against your league, and then there's

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Speaker 2: contests where you're playing against you know, let's.

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Speaker 1: Say a whole a whole GPP.

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Speaker 2: And you're trying to get to a playoff and then

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Speaker 2: you're trying to Then the week's become individual at that point,

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Speaker 2: so you really have to kind of take into consideration

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Speaker 2: which type of bestball league you're playing. But to your point,

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Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson at Pierce's teammate over the past two years

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Speaker 2: as a rate of about you know, forty five twenty

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Speaker 2: seven percent, and he's missed a ton of games, So

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Speaker 2: it just goes to show that they're just such a

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Speaker 2: different uh and then hiss, his miss games are gonna

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Speaker 2: come into play.

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Speaker 1: Because you know it is cumultive.

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Speaker 2: So there's just a lot of dynamics in basketball and

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Speaker 2: ways to take advantage of it.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I agree.

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Speaker 2: The main thing is you're looking for upside and ceiling,

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Speaker 2: and another thing is correlation.

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Speaker 1: Right, what are you doing stack wise?

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Speaker 2: Because I think there is kind of a common philosophy

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Speaker 2: on stacking, but again it really varies in your league

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Speaker 2: and what type of prize are ultimately aiming for, because

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Speaker 2: I think stacks would arrive for a lot of people

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Speaker 2: that attempted them as well last year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think stacking is very important for best

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Speaker 3: ball because it does it maximizes your team ceiling, which

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Speaker 3: is what your goal should be in best ball because

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Speaker 3: you know the spiked weeks are going to be heavily correlated.

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Speaker 3: If you have a quarterback and two or three of

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Speaker 3: his pass catchers. If the quarterback has a good week,

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Speaker 3: it's lightly that his past catchers had one too. And

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Speaker 3: you could take this on a macro level as well.

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Speaker 3: I know you've talked about this, but you're also just

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Speaker 3: investing in offenses just being better than people expect. So

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Speaker 3: you know, last year I was pretty high on Sam Donald,

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Speaker 3: so on teams where I had you know, Justin Jefferson

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Speaker 3: and Jordan Addison. I also took Sam Donald later because

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Speaker 3: in theory, you know, he's going to maintain their value

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Speaker 3: even though Kirk Cousin's gone, So you're kind of investing

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Speaker 3: in the offense as a whole being better than the market.

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Speaker 3: And sure enough, you know, Sam Darnald had a great season,

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Speaker 3: which you know helped Justin Jefferson and Jordan Adison's value

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Speaker 3: as well. So there's just a ton of correlation just

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Speaker 3: in terms of, you know, what they provide on a

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Speaker 3: weekly basis, but also just against the market itself. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: you typically want to stack your quarterbacks with you know,

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Speaker 3: a couple of the pass catchers on the same team,

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Speaker 3: and you can get creative with it. I actually took

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Speaker 3: an eagle stack recently where I had Jalen Hurts, AJ

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Speaker 3: Brown and Dallas Goddter, and then later on the draft

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Speaker 3: I took Will Shipley as well, which is kind of

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Speaker 3: a sneaky stack because if Saquon Barkley gets hurt and

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Speaker 3: misses extended time, obviously Will Shipley's going to hit at ADP,

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Speaker 3: but also you know Jalen Hurts is gonna have to

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Speaker 3: throw more, so that's gonna help aj Brown and Dallas

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Speaker 3: Art specifically as well. So there's all sorts of hidden

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Speaker 3: correlation in that by having the running back as well

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Speaker 3: that centers around you know, the key player in Saquon

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Speaker 3: Barkley here potentially missing time and you never bank on that.

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Speaker 3: But that's kind of the idea with these stacks as

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Speaker 3: you're just coming up with the scenario where you know,

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Speaker 3: if everybody hits, it's going to really amplify your team ceiling.

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Speaker 3: And again that's the name of the game when it

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Speaker 3: comes to best ball as you're trying to really maximize

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Speaker 3: your team ceiling and stacking is one, you know, great

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Speaker 3: way of doing.

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Speaker 1: That, yep.

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Speaker 2: And it's so important. Ye I think a lot of

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Speaker 2: people end up or a lot of drafters end up

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Speaker 2: tripping themselves up with it because the key you hit

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Speaker 2: on is it has to raise the ceiling of your

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Speaker 2: team and I think the way a lot of people

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Speaker 2: end up doing it is they are attempting these stacks

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Speaker 2: where a lot of it is riding on getting multiple

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Speaker 2: guys in in the early part of the draft instead

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Speaker 2: of you know, if you just end up letting them

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Speaker 2: come together, it's one thing, but what you end up

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Speaker 2: what you end up seeing is people not only let's say,

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Speaker 2: don't uh or not only are going for like a

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Speaker 2: Hurts aj Brown, you know, Davonte Smith stack where it

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Speaker 2: essentially comes down to three guys being available in the

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Speaker 2: first five to six rounds. But they would also then

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Speaker 2: avoid Saquon Barkley in that stack, and even if they

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Speaker 2: had the opportunity to draft them, which last year that

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Speaker 2: it was it played out exactly like that with Herts

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Speaker 2: and Barkley were very rare stacked together, and it was

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Speaker 2: just and it was and you saw this kind of

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Speaker 2: throughout the board with these running backs or these quarterbacks

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Speaker 2: and just people avoiding the other because there was no

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Speaker 2: it's not like a big correlation there, but it's still

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Speaker 2: an offense.

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Speaker 1: There's still a positive correlation.

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Speaker 2: And then there are some negative ones because but they're

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Speaker 2: contingent on things that you know wouldn't affect you draft wise,

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Speaker 2: because you would still rather have more value than than not.

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Speaker 2: So there was a lot of teams where they ended

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Speaker 2: up killing their Saycon Barkley, teams are killing their Derek

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Speaker 2: Henson teams because they were making decisions based off of

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Speaker 2: who to fade at at running back or you know

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Speaker 2: who they wanted these stacks. So I do think there

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Speaker 2: it's there's an even bigger edge in stacking because a

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Speaker 2: lot of.

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Speaker 1: Drafters do it wrong or don't realize.

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Speaker 2: For example, there's another scenario like let's say it's two

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Speaker 2: thousand and twenty three instead of twenty twenty four, and

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Speaker 2: you take Jamar Chase where he goes and then he

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Speaker 2: staggered with Burrow, but Burrow.

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Speaker 1: Misses the last half of the season.

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Speaker 2: You killed like a first round pick with a by

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Speaker 2: just attaching him to a pick that was, you know,

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Speaker 2: a lot later in the draft.

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Speaker 3: Door.

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Speaker 2: A better example is like Stafford would Cool weather year.

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Speaker 2: You know, if Stafford could go down to cool it

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Speaker 2: could still hit and uh with Jimmy. But a lot

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Speaker 2: of people don't think of that, and there's just gonna

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Speaker 2: be way too many of these combinations, especially in these

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Speaker 2: larger fields where it's just the same exact stats kind

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Speaker 2: kind of the way we see in DFS. So I

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Speaker 2: think that there's like a big game theory element to

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Speaker 2: stacking that goes very overlook.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's very important to be.

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Speaker 2: Kind of deliberate with your stacks and not just feel

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Speaker 2: like you have to make decisions based on what you

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Speaker 2: were intending to do, if if it's still a valuable

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Speaker 2: pick at a certain spot, especially with these like when

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Speaker 2: running backs are being worked into these stacks, or the

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Speaker 2: fact that most of these quarterbacks going early are Russian

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks as it is. So there's there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: ways to kind of get an edge there. But one

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Speaker 2: of the way, one of the big things I think

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Speaker 2: is people tend to obsess over roster construction, where you

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Speaker 2: in terms of the how many quarterbacks, how many running backs,

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Speaker 2: and how does it change based on your the way

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Speaker 2: your drafts unfolding.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's the important part is every draft

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Speaker 3: is different. You know, I have general guidelines where I'm

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Speaker 3: typically gonna draft two to three quarterbacks, and ideally you

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Speaker 3: want to draft two quarterbacks. You have two quarterback don't

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Speaker 3: have the same bye week, they're pretty safe, you don't

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Speaker 3: think they're gonna lose their job, and you stack them

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Speaker 3: with you know, a few pass catchers. There are times

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Speaker 3: where you do take a third quarterback. I know, you

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Speaker 3: like you know, Anthony Richardson is a good example, some

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Speaker 3: just dart throw with massive upside. You can go with him.

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Speaker 3: If if you know one of your first two quarterbacks

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Speaker 3: that you take is kind of shaky, then you'll want

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Speaker 3: to add a third quarterback. So most drafts, you know,

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Speaker 3: I'm taking two to three quarterbacks. Running backs, it can

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Speaker 3: range from you know, five to eight. Ideally you only

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Speaker 3: have to draft five running backs and they all stay

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Speaker 3: healthy and your team can have massive upside that way.

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Speaker 3: But more times than not, you know I'm going to

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Speaker 3: get like six to seven running backs. It really depends.

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Speaker 3: But I think wide receiver I think is the most

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Speaker 3: important to really have depth. So I like to have

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Speaker 3: you know, seven to eight, maybe nine wide receivers because

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Speaker 3: there is a fuck position, so you know, outside of

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Speaker 3: the three receivers you have to start, they could also

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Speaker 3: fill in your flex that week, and wide receivers week

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Speaker 3: to week are going to be very volatile, even more

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Speaker 3: so than running back at times. So I think just

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Speaker 3: having as many wide receivers as possible certainly helps. And

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Speaker 3: then tight ends, similar to the other onesie position quarterback,

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Speaker 3: two to three tight ends, and you know whether you

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Speaker 3: have two or three kind of depends on who your

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Speaker 3: first two tight ends are and if there's some guy

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Speaker 3: later in the draft you want to add tack on,

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Speaker 3: maybe part of a stack. But that's kind of how

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Speaker 3: I go into it. I have these like vague guidelines,

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Speaker 3: but as the draft goes, I kind of know what

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Speaker 3: that specific team needs later on to fill out the

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Speaker 3: rest of the roster. But I think just being in

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Speaker 3: those ballparks makes the most sense. And there's no real

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Speaker 3: hard fast rule to you know, you only have to

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Speaker 3: take two quarterbacks or you should take three. I think

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Speaker 3: it really depends on how your specific draft goes.

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Speaker 2: That is exactly what I wanted to talk about, because

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Speaker 2: there is so much inkspilled with the analysis of the

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Speaker 2: prior year and what worked, and it's great data, but

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Speaker 2: a lot of it is descriptive.

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Speaker 1: It's not really predictive of the future. So now that we've.

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Speaker 2: Had a number of years of best Ball being a

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Speaker 2: prominent offering, we've kind of learned that any strategy can work.

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Speaker 2: And I think the key is, for example, it's gonna.

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Speaker 1: Come down to the players first and foremost.

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Speaker 2: Let me say that, But this year, I think, for example,

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Speaker 2: going back to quarterback and tight end two versus three.

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Speaker 2: The thing to keep in mind is that quarterbacks generally

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Speaker 2: outscore tight end on the low end, so the worst

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Speaker 2: like the quarterbacks, the quarterback threes usually are going to

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Speaker 2: get more points by a lot than the tight end

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Speaker 2: three is because they're starters. There's still every week starters,

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Speaker 2: a lot of them, and the tight ends you're kind

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Speaker 2: of aiming for a dart throw, so they're the more.

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Speaker 1: It really is going to depend on the more.

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Speaker 2: Of your opponents that are taking which position that you know,

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Speaker 2: if no one's taking if it's two and two, it's

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Speaker 2: a little different than if everyone's taking a third quarterback

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Speaker 2: and you're not, and you're taking a third tight end

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Speaker 2: in place of that third quarterback, that could that could

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Speaker 2: be costing you or and at the same time giving

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Speaker 2: you you need roster construction more upside. But that's that's

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Speaker 2: something you have to kind of keep in mind here.

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Speaker 2: And I think the same thing with the way you're

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Speaker 2: looking at the running back wide receiver breakdown. If you're

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Speaker 2: going against the grain, you're going heavy running back early,

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Speaker 2: you might just want to stop after four even and

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Speaker 2: just load up on wide receiver. Whereas if you you

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Speaker 2: are drafting a bunch of wide receivers going zero r B,

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Speaker 2: then you might be losing out by drafting a wide

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Speaker 2: receiver seven. Even because you nailed your you got to

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Speaker 2: assume that your picks you are making are hating. So

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Speaker 2: you don't want to just keep belaboring the point of

321
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Speaker 2: wide receiver when you really need.

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Speaker 1: To be, you know, kind of fixing up your weak

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Speaker 1: spot at running back.

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Speaker 2: So there are there's gonna be a lot of violence

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Speaker 2: kind of roster strategies. Is that something Are you finding

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Speaker 2: that too? Is there anything else you want to add there?

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Speaker 1: Or should we keep it?

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Speaker 3: That was a great summer. I think yeah, it's just

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Speaker 3: important to kind of what you hit on where you

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Speaker 3: kind of just have to assume best case scenario in

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Speaker 3: these situations because unlike season long leagues, there's no end

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Speaker 3: season management where you know, when I go into a

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Speaker 3: season long league, I'm under the assumption every running back

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Speaker 3: gets hurt, every backup running back gets some spot starts.

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Speaker 3: Best ball. It's a little bit different. I think you're right.

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00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,040
Speaker 3: You can have some builds where you're taking four running

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Speaker 3: backs and you're saying, I'm going to get lucky. They're

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00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:08,359
Speaker 3: all four going to stay healthy and they're all going

339
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,680
Speaker 3: to hit, and you kind of put that aside, knowing

340
00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:12,640
Speaker 3: that you know it might not work out that way,

341
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,760
Speaker 3: but you can be aggressive in that way of thinking

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Speaker 3: about it. And one other point when it comes to

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Speaker 3: running back construction is in season long formats, there are

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Speaker 3: times where you want to take the backup running back

345
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Speaker 3: a handcuff and best ball you absolutely do not want

346
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Speaker 3: to do that because that raises your team's floor, but

347
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,920
Speaker 3: it does lower your ceiling. If you have Crushian McCaffrey,

348
00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:39,199
Speaker 3: you don't really need to take Isaac Grenda or whoever

349
00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:42,600
Speaker 3: you think the backup running back is because that's going

350
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Speaker 3: to require McCaffrey to miss time for the other player

351
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Speaker 3: to provide value, and you don't want that because you

352
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Speaker 3: want your team to have as much upside as possible,

353
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Speaker 3: so you want Krushian McCaffrey to stay healthy all season.

354
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:57,000
Speaker 3: So that's just another slight tweak when it comes to

355
00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 3: best ball is you're really not drafting players because again

356
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 3: we're trying to maximize our ceilings. So that kind of

357
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 3: goes with my point of you're kind of just assuming

358
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:11,280
Speaker 3: everyone stays healthy because you are trying to assume best

359
00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 3: case scenario for that specific ross construction.

360
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is the key. It's you want your guys

361
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:19,280
Speaker 1: to hit.

362
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,479
Speaker 2: And I think I think there's just so many there

363
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,639
Speaker 2: are places for inefficiency that like, there probably would be

364
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:30,879
Speaker 2: a scenario where you would want to take Girndo and

365
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:35,960
Speaker 2: McCaffrey if you were saying that all your other picks

366
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:39,919
Speaker 2: hit and the draft and your fellow drafters drafted in

367
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 2: such a way that you would like Grendo is still

368
00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 2: the top running back on your board at at the

369
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,440
Speaker 2: pick your ma. Like, there's a lot of contingencies, but

370
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:49,960
Speaker 2: I could see a situation where if I nail my

371
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,280
Speaker 2: draft because people are making all these mistakes and and

372
00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 2: you know, there's all these other correlations that if I

373
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 2: have the correlation of San Francisco running back every week

374
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 2: and it's the right to guy, that could put me

375
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:05,360
Speaker 2: over the edge in theory, because sometimes people go too

376
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 2: far in the other direction. So I think it's that's

377
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,440
Speaker 2: really the fun of best ball is that, uh, there's

378
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 2: is the tail outcomes and the range of outcomes that

379
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 2: we're working in are just so exponential, and so there's

380
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 2: a lot of ways to be creative or sometimes you

381
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 2: have to just be more uh less more conservative than

382
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:28,680
Speaker 2: the average, just because to your point, there there's a

383
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 2: the four running back situation. If you really broke it

384
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 2: down in terms of percentages, it would come out very

385
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:40,639
Speaker 2: very very well, especially when you consider you also have

386
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:42,879
Speaker 2: to there's other things that have to go right with

387
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,359
Speaker 2: your roster. So there that's how it kind of goes.

388
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,159
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, I still find it.

389
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:49,760
Speaker 2: It's just still gonna it's still gonna come down to

390
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,440
Speaker 2: your stacks and then it's gonna come down to your

391
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 2: uh you know who do what players you took like

392
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,440
Speaker 2: in who you avoided like, That's still what's can happen.

393
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,439
Speaker 2: But there there's a lot going into it that you

394
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 2: have to account for that Sometimes that adds a lot

395
00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 2: of volatility in both directions and gives you a lot

396
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:14,439
Speaker 2: more room to operate within constraints either either direction.

397
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:16,160
Speaker 1: So I think it's pretty cool.

398
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 2: But yeah, don't handcuff running backs is generally generally what

399
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 2: you want to do. Don't don't use the same bie

400
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 2: weeks again is another one, but sometimes it can work.

401
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,199
Speaker 1: It just you just you can't write it off. You

402
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 1: just have to you just have to.

403
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 3: Uh.

404
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 2: I think the valuing of the ceiling at at the

405
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 2: spot you're at in the draft. It's it's the most

406
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 2: important thing. And so if if guys line up, I

407
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 2: think you do it. But it's just it shouldn't line

408
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:46,679
Speaker 2: up for you that much. If you have, if you

409
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 2: have got properly valued, it's a it's a low probability.

410
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:51,120
Speaker 1: So, uh, but there is there is.

411
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:55,119
Speaker 2: Some nuance there, and it's it's pretty Uh, it's pretty

412
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 2: interesting because I do think there's there's a lot of

413
00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,159
Speaker 2: exploitable things. There's less generalizations we could make. Would you

414
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,240
Speaker 2: say that, Like, I think there's it's harder to put

415
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,679
Speaker 2: things in a box. You just have to be ready

416
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 2: for each scenario and know how to handle it.

417
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly.

418
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:16,360
Speaker 1: What are your uh, what are your thoughts on.

419
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 3: The approach to.

420
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 2: The playoffs in best Ball versus the regular season in

421
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 2: those kind of leagues or tournaments.

422
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's important and I think that that

423
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 3: kind of goes with stacks is if you have a

424
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 3: couple of stacks, you know they're going to have high

425
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 3: weekly upside which will come into play in week seventeen.

426
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 3: I think some people tend to look at, you know,

427
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 3: strength of schedule and the matchups that week, thinking everything's

428
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 3: going to be the same from last year. I think,

429
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,880
Speaker 3: you know, something like the Bengals defense will probably still

430
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 3: be bad, but you know, year to year defense isn't

431
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 3: as sticky. So I think people will think that there's

432
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 3: like these spots where oh, it's a great matchup, but

433
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 3: it turns out not to be. So you could actually

434
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,919
Speaker 3: be contrarian and go against that a little bit and

435
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 3: you know, attack, you know, a tougher matchup, assuming you're

436
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 3: trying to be contraying, because those these formats, you really

437
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:24,640
Speaker 3: need a high ceiling and to go against the grain

438
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 3: of bit do something a little different in order to

439
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 3: actually come out on top. So I think the way

440
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 3: I know you've talked about it, but with everybody approaching

441
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 3: it AI now trying to get involved, they're going to

442
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 3: have their own way of doing it. So just to

443
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 3: slight tweak the other direction is probably the way to go.

444
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 3: That's kind of how I approach massive GPPs as well.

445
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 3: So I think when it comes to two week seventeen,

446
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,679
Speaker 3: don't get too scared away by matchups and just know

447
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 3: that when you have stacks that's kind of already solving

448
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 3: that for you know, weekly upside is you know, if

449
00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 3: you have a stack that goes off, it's going to

450
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:02,120
Speaker 3: be in the same week. So I don't generally don't

451
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 3: approach it the same way others do. And I think

452
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:06,479
Speaker 3: that's kind of what gives you an edge.

453
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great way to put it, is you

454
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:14,160
Speaker 2: want to be differentiated in some way, you just don't

455
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 2: necessarily always have to be differentiated in such a crazy

456
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 2: way because everyone else already is. You know, something as

457
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 2: simple as getting the correlations and getting them cheaper. And

458
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,479
Speaker 2: I think it's worked out that way in DFS a

459
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,439
Speaker 2: lot of the times too, where you just want to

460
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 2: take advantage of the cheaper correlations with guys who are

461
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,120
Speaker 2: going to it's gonna be easier to stack together on

462
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 2: your team versus, you know, putting yourself out there with

463
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 2: having to create these stacks early in the draft, missing

464
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,880
Speaker 2: out on them, fading guys that are values because of it,

465
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 2: people sniping you right, all these things. But everyone's doing that,

466
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 2: so no one's really getting an edge versus the person

467
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 2: that's taking the tight whoever they think the Titans number

468
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 2: two receiver is with with cam Ward and and maybe

469
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,719
Speaker 2: you're ridally earlier because it was it's just a lot

470
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 2: easier to do.

471
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 1: So you're gonna.

472
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 2: You're gonna be able to take advantage of it and

473
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 2: still have a team around it where you didn't give

474
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 2: as much back. And I think that's that's always the thing,

475
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,719
Speaker 2: and that's why it's uh, it comes down to, you know,

476
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 2: GPP versus are you just playing against eleven other people?

477
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 1: That that's a huge consideration.

478
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 2: But we're gonna go into some some players we like

479
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 2: for twenty twenty five before we do talk about. This

480
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:38,120
Speaker 2: episode is presented by Yahoo Fantasy, and we know fantasy

481
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 2: football is back, So fire up those group chats, get

482
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 2: those draft boards ready, Buckle up for a season filled

483
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:48,160
Speaker 2: with breakouts, busts, overreactions and more.

484
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 1: It's all happening in this year.

485
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,719
Speaker 2: Sean and I are playing on yah Who Fantasy and

486
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 2: you should too. So whether you're a first timer or

487
00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 2: you're a vet who's making your million appearance in the

488
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 2: draft room, now is the time to get excited. When

489
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 2: I see that purple and that exclamation point, I just

490
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 2: feel like, man, it's back when I didn't even have

491
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 2: enough friends to have a league. I just had to

492
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 2: play with strangers. And that's that's how I got into fantasy,

493
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,159
Speaker 2: so it's a little nostalgic for me as well. And

494
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 2: to celebrate twenty eight years of fantasy greatness, Yahoo Fantasy

495
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 2: is dropping twenty eight big new features over twenty eight days,

496
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 2: giving you more ways to play, more ways to draft,

497
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 2: and more ways to win. It all begins August fourth,

498
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:49,159
Speaker 2: So stay tuned. Gets started by creating or joining a

499
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 2: Yahoo Fantasy football league today at Yahoo Fantasy dot com

500
00:27:55,160 --> 00:28:02,199
Speaker 2: slash flex. It's yaofantasy dot Com slash fleck. All right, Sean,

501
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:06,640
Speaker 2: play a little game here before we get back into

502
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 2: our best ball targets.

503
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 1: What we're gonna do is we're gonna go with would.

504
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 2: You rather, And I'm gonna ask you twenty twenty five,

505
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:24,200
Speaker 2: would you rather take the consensus number one overall wide

506
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 2: receiver in Jamar Chase or the consensus number one overall

507
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 2: running back B John Robinson.

508
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Jamar Chase in this one. Give

509
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 3: me the top receiver. I always like taking receivers in

510
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 3: the first round, so that's the first reason why. But

511
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 3: you know, Jamar Chase just coming off a monster season.

512
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 3: He's still just twenty five years old, so still entering

513
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 3: his prime. Like we might not have even seen the

514
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 3: best season yet he's attached to Joe Burrow, and you know,

515
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 3: the Bengals defense was a disaster last year. They had

516
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 3: to keep throwing stand games. That should be the case

517
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 3: again this year. And even Trey Hendrickson is dealing with

518
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 3: some contract issues. If he can't if he's not even playing,

519
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 3: my god, they're gonna have to throw almost every down.

520
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 3: So I just think Chase just has the perfect floor

521
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 3: ceiling comba that I like to get when I do

522
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 3: have the first peck.

523
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 2: Absolutely, I'm right there with you. When it was Saquon Bark,

524
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 2: he wasn't going to he wasn't likely to repeat. Now

525
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 2: there's John Robinson. Yes, he's been consistent, but I think

526
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 2: that defense does give Chase some added upside. Whereas John

527
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 2: Robinson as a running back, you expected to miss more games.

528
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 2: And you never know with the Tyra aud year situation,

529
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 2: what can end up happening to carry there, carry here,

530
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 2: Carrie there, It could switch it all up. So I

531
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 2: think we're both sold on Jamar Chase here. Which just

532
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 2: hope he doesn't pull Christian McCaffrey or anything like that.

533
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 1: But that was just a little game we played here

534
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 1: you know, would you rather?

535
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 2: And it was sponsored by Yahoo Fantasy and Yahoo Fantasy

536
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 2: is dropping twenty eight big new features over the course

537
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 2: of twenty eight days, giving you.

538
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 1: More ways to play draft and win.

539
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 2: And it all begins August fourth, So stay tuned and

540
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 2: gets started at Yahoo fantasy dot com slash Flex.

541
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 1: Fantasy Flex listeners.

542
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 2: It's your boy Chris array Bi here and August twenty third,

543
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 2: make sure you save the date. Joe's on Breed Street

544
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 2: in Chicago. Sean Kernan is gonna be there. I'm gonna

545
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 2: be there. Some special guests will be there as well.

546
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 2: All you need to do RSVP link in the episode description.

547
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 1: It is free. Looking forward to seeing you there.

548
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 2: All right, Sean, let's talk about our best ball targets.

549
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 2: Is getting to that time of year where we're gonna

550
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 2: start seeing so meaningful maybe eightyp movement.

551
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 1: Soon, like maybe guys will actually get hurt.

552
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 2: Well, guys aren't getting hurt, and you know things are

553
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 2: changing suspension wise or potential suspension wise, injury wise, but

554
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 2: there's also going to be things that start to developing camp.

555
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 2: So I would start a quarterbacks who are you targeting?

556
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 2: As we are right now into July, starting to get

557
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 2: into that first preseason game.

558
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the first quarterback, you know, I've been targeting

559
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:35,959
Speaker 3: as Caleb Williams, who you know, had a disappointing rookie season.

560
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 3: You know, I love him entering in the season last year,

561
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 3: but you know, he's still finished fourteenth and best ball

562
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 3: points added per game despite being you know, a bit

563
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 3: of a disappointment. And he was sacked a league ghyh

564
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 3: sixty eight times, threw the ball away a league high

565
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 3: thirty eight times, saw his head coach and his offensive

566
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 3: coordinator fired in season. So now look back at this

567
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 3: current offseason, and I think the Bears have been doing

568
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 3: a lot of great things for Caleb. Specifically, they brought

569
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 3: in Lion's former Lions offensive corneron Ben Johnson, who I

570
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 3: think will help Caleb out tremendously. Again, maybe having a

571
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 3: scheme where he's gonna be able to target his first

572
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 3: read and avoid those sacks, avoid those throwaways. So I

573
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 3: think Ben Johnson will help unlock that. They've also made

574
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 3: a ton of additions on the offensive line. I think

575
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 3: the line is gonna be much better, which is also

576
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 3: going to help Caleb. And you know, despite losing Keenan Allen.

577
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 3: They added two talented pass catchers in the draft with

578
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 3: tight end Colson Lovelin and wide receiver Luther Burden. So

579
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 3: I think they're doing all the right things. And you know,

580
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 3: Caleb Williams has it all right in front of him,

581
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 3: have a year two breakout, and he still has you know,

582
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 3: some rushing upside. Last year, you know, there was broken

583
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 3: plays where you know he's trying to run for his life,

584
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 3: things like that. But I think if things are a

585
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 3: little bit more stable under you know, better coaching under

586
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 3: Ben Johnson, we might see you know, that rushing upside

587
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 3: combined with better passing numbers. So I think, you know,

588
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 3: his ADP is QB twelve right now, I have him

589
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 3: as my QB ten, but I think the upside's there

590
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 3: for him to just break out this year. Plus, when

591
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 3: we're talking about Best Ball, you know he has a

592
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 3: ton of stacking up, stacking options where he could spread

593
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 3: it around. So so I love you know, taking him

594
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 3: and pairing him up with DJ Moore, Romo Donz, Colson Lovelin.

595
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 3: So I just love these bear stacks in Best Ball

596
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 3: because I think their ADP is very fair just given

597
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 3: the upside that they all provide this year.

598
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely.

599
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 2: It's there was a time when kabb was I mean,

600
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 2: he was sneaking up there into top eight at times,

601
00:33:57,840 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 2: and I was like, all right, I'm gonna hold off.

602
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 2: But he's kind of settled into a point where I

603
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 2: do think, especially when you're talking about a stack it

604
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 2: there's gonna be a lot of value there. Uh and

605
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 2: this there is no ex Everything is gonna come down

606
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 2: to him at this point, I think because the old

607
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 2: line is so good.

608
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,280
Speaker 1: Now yeah, it's it's new, new pieces.

609
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 2: So maybe it takes some time, but ultimately, if you

610
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 2: believe in his talent and he was a number one pick,

611
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 2: then I think he's gonna take a step forward this year.

612
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 2: So should be should be a profitable stack. And Uh,

613
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 2: there's another team that I think the aps are very

614
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:40,879
Speaker 2: fair and that's a Jacksonville Jaguars. So I'm taking taking

615
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:43,239
Speaker 2: a lot of team ball. You know, just one of

616
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:46,920
Speaker 2: those guys who, uh, never gonna be sexy. But you

617
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:50,279
Speaker 2: look at what Liam Cohne did, and with Baker Mayfield

618
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 2: and career highs throwing the football, yardage, touchdowns, rushing the

619
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:57,360
Speaker 2: football as well.

620
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 1: He was a lot better as a runner. And we

621
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 1: know Lawrence can run.

622
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 2: Now he ends up getting blown up a lot and

623
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 2: missing time because of it, So we'll see if that

624
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,640
Speaker 2: carries over. But I just really thought Ian Cole was

625
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 2: extremely impressive in his stint with Tampa His one year

626
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 2: stint with Tampa Bay not much to go on.

627
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 1: But again, when.

628
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 2: You're looking at a quarterback, you know, in that range,

629
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 2: who could Baker finish top three?

630
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 1: Last year? He's QB three? Excuse me? So, like, who

631
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 1: saw that coming? Even in his prior year.

632
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,840
Speaker 2: We liked a lot of us like the Canalis and

633
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 2: the job that he did, and Baker was still and

634
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 2: the Bucks were averaging nearly ten points less per game.

635
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 1: So it's really just I think a.

636
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 2: Situation where you got Bryan Thomas Junior undervalued as well,

637
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 2: because he could be the number one overall overseer. I mean,

638
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 2: you've compared him to Randy Moss in the past, and

639
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 2: he has that kind of upside, at least statistically, and

640
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 2: then Hunter, no one knows what's gonna happen, so he's

641
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 2: undervalued base and his talent. All the running backs, there's

642
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:03,879
Speaker 2: just so much uncertainty. It kind of reminds me of

643
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 2: the stock market. In a way, just because there are

644
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:10,279
Speaker 2: uncertainty is uncertainty doesn't mean you have to avoid it.

645
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 2: You actually might be better off investing in it because there

646
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:17,720
Speaker 2: is little there's little downside and a lot of upside

647
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:18,400
Speaker 2: at those prices.

648
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 1: And I think Lawrence is the guy who benefits the most.

649
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:22,839
Speaker 2: Even if you don't know exactly how the playing time

650
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 2: works out for a Hunter or the backfield, or you

651
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 2: know how good Strange is going to be, or you

652
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:30,400
Speaker 2: know all those other question marks, Lawrence is still generally

653
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 2: the guy that's.

654
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:31,400
Speaker 1: Going to benefit.

655
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've I've been with you on this. I love

656
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 3: the Jaguars sacks, and I've like Brenton Strange. You just

657
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:43,800
Speaker 3: mentioned him. He's been you know, clear value in my eyes.

658
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 3: But we might see some movement. I mean we just

659
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 3: saw the Seahawks release No A Fan. Yeah, so like

660
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 3: he might pop up in Jacksonville. It's like crap, Like

661
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 3: you know that that eats into you know, Strange's value maybe,

662
00:36:57,880 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 3: so I've been kind of like backing off that, But

663
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 3: is that who like who would be the top stack

664
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 3: you think for like the Joggars right now, like uh,

665
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 3: Thomas Junior and Strange or Hunter and Stranger both receivers, like,

666
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 3: how are you handling the stacks? Specifically, I think the top.

667
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 2: Stacks for the for the Jaguars would be Thomas Junior

668
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:23,240
Speaker 2: and Lawrence just themselves, because again, yeah, I think people

669
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 2: make way too many mistakes, and it's if you get

670
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 2: if you're lucky enough to get Thomas Junior, you're getting

671
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 2: so it's easy to get Lawrence. And if you get

672
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 2: Thomas Junior and Hunter, like Lawrence is always gonna be

673
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:39,240
Speaker 2: easy to get, so I think, but I think Thomas

674
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 2: Junior just being locked in, I think that that's the

675
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 2: best stack because he's the number one, But there is

676
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 2: a situation where Thomas goes off and Hunter is still

677
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 2: wildly undervalued.

678
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,279
Speaker 1: So it's definitely those top three. I think.

679
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 2: I don't think you need to get fancy, but I

680
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:00,919
Speaker 2: will say that I am perfect. Are we fine with

681
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 2: Diami Brown or Strange in the stacks? Because I would

682
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 2: much rather somebody do that then hear this and think

683
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 2: that they have to reach for like a Hunter just

684
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 2: because they have, you know, Thomas, or it's just that's

685
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 2: how you end up losing value when when you're really

686
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 2: reaching on these stacks. So I think my opinion would

687
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 2: just be Lawrence. Lawrence and Thomas is the best world.

688
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 2: Where would you go for that one?

689
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah, I'm obviously Brian Thomas Junior. Stand I think

690
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 3: keeping it simple, like you said, like early in the draft,

691
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 3: do you know if you got Brian Thomas Junior or not?

692
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 3: So if you get BTJ, you know, maybe you try

693
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 3: to get Hunter. But when it comes time for like

694
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 3: you know, Trevor Lawrence to potentially go, you kind of

695
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 3: have to reach to get him. That's kind of the

696
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 3: other thing. When it comes to Stacks, you got to

697
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:57,759
Speaker 3: get ahead of ADP and I'm willing to do that

698
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:02,319
Speaker 3: with Lawrence. So I think Lawrence and then like you said,

699
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 3: if you can get Hunter or Dammy brown Way later

700
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 3: or Brenton Strange, I think you do it. I think

701
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:12,760
Speaker 3: this is just an offense that everyone's undervalue and you

702
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 3: compared to the stock market. I'm saying crypto like you

703
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 3: could like this could be a moon bag, like the

704
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 3: Jaguars could be the moon bag. So I just think

705
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 3: there's a ton of upside there with them and the

706
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:28,799
Speaker 3: Bears offense, Like you're investing in the offense itself. So

707
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:31,800
Speaker 3: I think if you believe in Liam Cohen, you believe

708
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 3: in like Trevor Lawrence, finally taking that leap, you got

709
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:36,319
Speaker 3: to go all in and take a few of the

710
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:38,720
Speaker 3: pass catchers with him. Yeah.

711
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 2: And I was tempted to say my favorite quarterback is

712
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:48,799
Speaker 2: any quarterback in the entire QB two range or into

713
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 2: that QB three range that I have one of his

714
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 2: top pass catchers, because that's generally the way I like

715
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:58,280
Speaker 2: to stack is with the cheaper quarterbacks and not risk

716
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 2: thing like you know, reaching early in the draft when

717
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 2: it has proven to be a lot more detrimental, and

718
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:06,720
Speaker 2: there's people doing it anyway.

719
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 1: But talk to me about another quarterback who is similar

720
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 1: to Donald you're high on this year.

721
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, JJ McCarthy, who you know, unfortunately had to miss

722
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 3: his entire rookie season do that torm meniscus. You know,

723
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 3: it was going to be interesting to see how that

724
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 3: would unfold because last year, I think everybody assumed, you know,

725
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 3: Sam Donald would start Week one and then eventually McCarthy

726
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:34,800
Speaker 3: would take over. But I mean it's hard to tell

727
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 3: when that would have happened because the Vikings started off

728
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,800
Speaker 3: five and zero Donald was playing well. They finished fourteen

729
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 3: to three, So there's a chance McCarthy might not have

730
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 3: even started last year, assuming you know, Donald say healthy.

731
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 3: So the reason why I was high on Darnald last

732
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 3: year was because McCarthy got hurt. Because you know Kevin O'Connell.

733
00:40:55,920 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 3: This scheme has made every quarterback in it look phenomena.

734
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 3: You know Nick Mullins, Josh Dobbs, and then last year

735
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 3: you know Sam Darnold had a career here. This this

736
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 3: scheme is just very QB friendly. It has one of

737
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 3: the best pass catching trios and justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison,

738
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:19,439
Speaker 3: Tig Hawkinson. So it's gonna be tough to fail in

739
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:23,319
Speaker 3: this situation. And you know McCarthy, he was a first

740
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:27,239
Speaker 3: round talent last year. He flashed that in preseason. So

741
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,080
Speaker 3: I think with McCarthy, I'm trying to get ahead of

742
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 3: it because again preseason, starting in a couple of weeks,

743
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 3: we might see McCarthy out there making plays and you know,

744
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 3: getting on other people's radar where his ADP might go up.

745
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:43,720
Speaker 3: So I've been trying to get him early on before

746
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 3: that potentially happens, because I think he does have you know,

747
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:49,799
Speaker 3: top twelve upside. He basically has you know what we

748
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 3: saw in Sam Darnold with potentially more because I think

749
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:57,240
Speaker 3: McCarthy has more rushing upside, So he's a guy once again,

750
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 3: it's very easy to stack. Do you get Justin Jefferson

751
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 3: early on or TJ. Hockinson, you know, you know, might

752
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,360
Speaker 3: want to get JJ McCarthy to pair with him. Now

753
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 3: with Jordan Addison, there's that legal situation going on where

754
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:16,359
Speaker 3: that could get tricky with him, but you could, you know,

755
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 3: get your guy Jalen Naylor in the drafts. He provides

756
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,759
Speaker 3: that touch up side and potentially upside of Addison word

757
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:26,840
Speaker 3: of miss time. So there's other ways to do that.

758
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:29,399
Speaker 3: But I think with you know, Justin Jefferson and TJ.

759
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 3: Howkinson specifically, they make great stacking options with JJ McCarthy

760
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:37,360
Speaker 3: because their value does depend on him being good in

761
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:39,400
Speaker 3: his rookie season as well. And that's that's kind of

762
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 3: why I said, is when you when you stack these guys,

763
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:45,240
Speaker 3: it's you're you're investing in the ceiling in the offense overall.

764
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:50,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, and to your point about you know the correlation

765
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:54,879
Speaker 2: with Hockinson in particular, they threw a lot more last

766
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 2: year once he came back as well. They were up

767
00:42:56,960 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 2: near thirty six attempts per game with him and about

768
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 2: eight fewer than that without him, So there's a chance

769
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 2: that that that carries over. I know, you know, some

770
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:08,839
Speaker 2: people are scared of the Josh Oliver move, but he's

771
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 2: an important part of the team regardless, like he's just

772
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 2: a great blocker and whatnot. So yeah, I think the

773
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 2: key with the value at quarterback is that he's QB

774
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 2: nineteen right now. Whoever is QB nineteen is probably gonna

775
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:25,839
Speaker 2: be because I like a guy I like Jordan Love

776
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:29,400
Speaker 2: in that range as well, because I think that coming

777
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:32,879
Speaker 2: off a year where Green Bay just did not feel

778
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:35,799
Speaker 2: comfortable with his receiving room and thus ran the ball

779
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:37,400
Speaker 2: a ton and was able to do that because they

780
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 2: still had a good, really good squad around him. But

781
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 2: he was a top five quarterback in yards at attempts,

782
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 2: he was top five and QBR he was battering an

783
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 2: injury from week one. We know that, you know, dobbs

784
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:54,879
Speaker 2: wis all those guys, at the end of the day,

785
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 2: one of the worst kind of supporting receiving cast on

786
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 2: the perimeter for a quarterback. So I think that this

787
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:04,400
Speaker 2: year is going to look a lot different with Golden.

788
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:06,560
Speaker 2: I think I think they're just going to be a

789
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:08,880
Speaker 2: lot more comfortable throwing the football and he's.

790
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 1: Always shown that that he can be efficient. So and

791
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 1: then strout another guy.

792
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:15,719
Speaker 2: But the guy I want to mention before we jumped

793
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:19,239
Speaker 2: the running back is still Anthony Richested because he is

794
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 2: top ten in you know, top four finishes over the

795
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 2: past two years despite missing all these games, and everyone

796
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:32,400
Speaker 2: kind of assumes that he's going to either share you know,

797
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:36,879
Speaker 2: the quarterback or or job or lose it out right,

798
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:41,760
Speaker 2: and there's a scenario where he still plays fifteen plus

799
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:42,880
Speaker 2: even seventeen games.

800
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 1: He only really left games once last year, besides the

801
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 1: fact that he's tired.

802
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 2: So I think there's a lot of a lot of

803
00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:53,400
Speaker 2: there's a lot of dips going on with Richardson, and yes,

804
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 2: you know there's something to it obviously, but it's priced in.

805
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 1: He was going where were you faded him last year?

806
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 2: I remember specifically doing a pod where you were like, yo,

807
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:04,240
Speaker 2: he is the quarterback.

808
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:06,319
Speaker 1: What was like quarterback six at one point or something.

809
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:09,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I said, yeah, I said, he obviously has top

810
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:12,440
Speaker 3: five upside, but you're drafting him pretty close to his

811
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 3: ceiling right now. So he was I was all high

812
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 3: on him his rookie season, but last year he was

813
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,440
Speaker 3: on my fay list just because his ADP got out

814
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:22,680
Speaker 3: of control absolutely, and.

815
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 2: Coming into last year he had missed a lot more

816
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:29,479
Speaker 2: games as less of a track record, the supporting cast

817
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 2: was far less good, and the opinion of the backup

818
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:35,239
Speaker 2: was a lot higher because Joe Flacca was coming off

819
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:39,400
Speaker 2: that that magical five game stretch in Cleveland.

820
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 3: We want to call it that.

821
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think and then he and now this

822
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:45,240
Speaker 2: year he's just a a whole different part of the draft.

823
00:45:45,320 --> 00:45:50,280
Speaker 2: I think he's free money, so love him. He's probably

824
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 2: the quarterback I'm going to have the most of Let's

825
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 2: go to running back. Talk to me about James Connor, man,

826
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:01,480
Speaker 2: because it seems like every year we talk about James

827
00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:05,399
Speaker 2: Connor in this kind of show, and we think he's

828
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 2: gonna eventually it's gonna be the last year, and then

829
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 2: it happens again.

830
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 1: So why do you like James Connor this year?

831
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 3: Yeah? It's one of those things where, yeah, maybe the

832
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:16,760
Speaker 3: wheels will fall off, but as of now, there's really

833
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 3: no real concerns for me with him. He just continues

834
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:25,200
Speaker 3: to produce despite you know, being past his prime. He's

835
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:27,799
Speaker 3: now thirty years old, so he is certainly in the

836
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:33,360
Speaker 3: decline phase of his career. But he finished fourteenth and

837
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:36,799
Speaker 3: best ball points added per game last year. You know,

838
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 3: his ADP's AREB twenty. So this is sort of the

839
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 3: frozen pond range where all these running backs, you know,

840
00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:45,640
Speaker 3: we could poke holes in. And I think he actually

841
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:47,920
Speaker 3: has less red flags than a lot of these other guys.

842
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:50,880
Speaker 3: With Connor, it's always well, right now, it's his age,

843
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 3: but it's just you know, he's always hurt, always miss

844
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:56,439
Speaker 3: his time, which it is true. He tends the miss

845
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 3: two to three games a year, but that's really the

846
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 3: median for running so he's just really consistent on hitting

847
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:09,919
Speaker 3: that median. Yeah, so, I mean, and then last year

848
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:14,240
Speaker 3: he only missed one game week eighteen, so that didn't

849
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 3: even matter. So I think that the risk, the injury

850
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 3: risk for him is sort of overblown. It's kind of

851
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:24,080
Speaker 3: every running back has injury risk, if you want to

852
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:26,840
Speaker 3: put it that way. So you know, despite you know,

853
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 3: him being thirty, I still think he's stable and fairly

854
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:33,920
Speaker 3: safe in that RB twenty range. So he's just the

855
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:37,840
Speaker 3: back I'm comfortable taking more times than not. But really

856
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:39,960
Speaker 3: that range, it's it's tough because a lot of these

857
00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 3: backs do carry quite a bit of risk. So he's

858
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:47,000
Speaker 3: this one that's stuck out for me that I'm still

859
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:50,160
Speaker 3: at least willing to keep going back to that James connorwell,

860
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:53,319
Speaker 3: at least until the wheels eventually do fall off.

861
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:56,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, he still looks pretty good. I mean, not as

862
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 2: good as do it two years ago when it was

863
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 2: like it was he was a monster, But he still

864
00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 2: looked like a top half of running back in this league.

865
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 2: And uh yet to your point, he's not not been

866
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:12,839
Speaker 2: a not been completely as unhealthy as we think. It's

867
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 2: just that consistency kind of lows you to sleep with

868
00:48:15,040 --> 00:48:18,080
Speaker 2: the three miss games every year. But I'll go with

869
00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 2: the guy just mentioned, Alvin Kamara. I've been I've been

870
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:24,719
Speaker 2: getting him everywhere. No one wants to touch these these

871
00:48:24,719 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 2: Saints for good reason. But the thing I always try

872
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 2: to tell people to keep in mind is there's probably

873
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:33,880
Speaker 2: gonna be biases that you're not even aware of it.

874
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 2: You have just because of the stench of the past

875
00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:40,759
Speaker 2: regime of Dennis Allen and Carr those guys. Those are

876
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 2: just stressful football people, I feel like, just not the

877
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 2: most fun to watch. And you're always you always feel

878
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:48,359
Speaker 2: like you're screaming at the screen when you're watching those guys.

879
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:50,880
Speaker 2: But this is Kellen Moore coming in, who It's not

880
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 2: just a team who's already bad on offense and now

881
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:57,439
Speaker 2: some defensive guys coming in and there they're gonna tank

882
00:48:57,480 --> 00:48:58,840
Speaker 2: and he's not even know what that was going on.

883
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 2: I think Kellen Moore being at the head of this team,

884
00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 2: there is a chance for certain guys to hit value,

885
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:09,840
Speaker 2: and Camares at the top of that list because relative

886
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:13,120
Speaker 2: to last year, old line should probably be better relative

887
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:17,359
Speaker 2: to last year, the offensive coaching staff is better, he's

888
00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:19,719
Speaker 2: and he's another guy he's never really had a ton

889
00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 2: of tread because he's always missed right around three games.

890
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:29,719
Speaker 2: And we saw what Kellen Moore's answer last year was

891
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:33,520
Speaker 2: to we don't always feel confident in our quarterback dropping back.

892
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:38,680
Speaker 2: It was extremely run heavy and Saguon Barkley was just

893
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 2: a league winner. So I'm not saying that Camaraen necessarily

894
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 2: has that type of upside because he's not gonna have

895
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:49,839
Speaker 2: eleven seventy yard runs, but the usage could be a

896
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:53,640
Speaker 2: lot more similar to Barkley if Barkley was just on

897
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 2: you know, a losing team, but was still playing a

898
00:49:56,040 --> 00:49:57,840
Speaker 2: ton of snaps and being good.

899
00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:01,320
Speaker 1: So I think that that's that's.

900
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:03,640
Speaker 2: Easily smash value got his ADP because most running backs

901
00:50:03,680 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 2: just don't have the receiving upside that Alvin Kamara does at.

902
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 1: This stage of his career. So I've really been on on.

903
00:50:12,600 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 2: That those two old guys, those Connor and Kamara and

904
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 2: his range not so much mixing, because I think that's

905
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:23,759
Speaker 2: the one where we're getting information that's telling us that

906
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:25,880
Speaker 2: maybe his role is going to change.

907
00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:28,399
Speaker 1: So but I know that I'm excited for this.

908
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 2: One because this is the one where usually we're fairly

909
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:35,279
Speaker 2: in agreement on certain things, but this is one where

910
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 2: we're kind of going head to head already and it's

911
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:40,400
Speaker 2: not even in August yet. So talk to me about

912
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:42,839
Speaker 2: this next guy and then I'll make the case against him.

913
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:45,840
Speaker 1: And uh yeah, and you know, listeners gonnaider himself.

914
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:50,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, exactly. So it's Dave Montgomery, and I really

915
00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:52,760
Speaker 3: know what you're gonna say, and I'm actually in agreement

916
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:55,920
Speaker 3: with you that his floor is lower this year. I

917
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:58,440
Speaker 3: know we both have taken advantage of him the past

918
00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:02,919
Speaker 3: couple of seasons. Ever since he's been in Detroit where

919
00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 3: this year, the offense itself or he specifically could take

920
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:08,919
Speaker 3: a step back. You know, they did just lose Ben

921
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:12,239
Speaker 3: Johnson to the Bears, so we don't really know how

922
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 3: this offense is going to be that you know, we

923
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:15,400
Speaker 3: have a different play caller.

924
00:51:16,239 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 1: It might not be as in sync.

925
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 3: It certainly can't be as elite as it has been

926
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:23,440
Speaker 3: the past couple seasons. And you know, he is backing

927
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:24,879
Speaker 3: up one of the best running backs in the league

928
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:27,719
Speaker 3: and Jamier Gibbs, who could have a bigger workload this year,

929
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:30,840
Speaker 3: and the offensive line takes a step back. But just

930
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:33,920
Speaker 3: when it comes to the profile of Montgomery, this is

931
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:36,880
Speaker 3: literally the type of running back I try to target

932
00:51:37,440 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 3: year and year out, and he still fits that mold.

933
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:44,680
Speaker 3: So last year, you know, he finished inside the top

934
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:48,000
Speaker 3: twenty four at the fourth highest rate, So that's really

935
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:52,400
Speaker 3: just showing he has a high floor. Obviously that's touchdown

936
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:55,920
Speaker 3: dependent when it comes with him. But Jamiir Gibbs was

937
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:58,560
Speaker 3: healthy all seventeen games, so it was sort of worst

938
00:51:58,560 --> 00:52:03,439
Speaker 3: case scenario and terms of his upside case where if

939
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:06,600
Speaker 3: Gibbs misses anytime, you know, Montgomery's going to be a

940
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:09,680
Speaker 3: top five, top ten option. Even at this stage in

941
00:52:09,719 --> 00:52:11,879
Speaker 3: his career. So I'm just saying we didn't even get

942
00:52:11,920 --> 00:52:15,160
Speaker 3: to see that ceiling case from him last year. So

943
00:52:16,200 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 3: all that having said that, like I still profile him

944
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 3: as that kind of like high floor, high ceiling back

945
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 3: and he's still going, you know, around the RB twenty

946
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:26,520
Speaker 3: four range, So I think it's a fair time to

947
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 3: take that risk. And the other thing is, you know,

948
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 3: even if the offense takes a step back, maybe they

949
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:37,480
Speaker 3: get more trailing game scripts that'll certainly help Jamier Gibbs.

950
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 3: This defense was injury ravaged last year. They had the

951
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:48,120
Speaker 3: most adjusted games lost. My guy Aiden Hutchinson looked like

952
00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:50,360
Speaker 3: he was going to be a potential defensive Player of

953
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:52,800
Speaker 3: the Year and then he got hurt. So I think

954
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:56,719
Speaker 3: my hope is this defense stays healthy, is better this year,

955
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:59,680
Speaker 3: keeps them in games, and maybe you know, helps Montgomery

956
00:52:59,680 --> 00:53:02,319
Speaker 3: in terms of game scripts. So I think we we

957
00:53:02,480 --> 00:53:04,759
Speaker 3: kind of think the same thing. I think Montgomery's floor

958
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 3: is certainly lower this year, all things considered, but he

959
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 3: still does provide that solid, you know, potential RB two

960
00:53:12,680 --> 00:53:15,960
Speaker 3: even when Gibbs is healthy, and potentially RB one if

961
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:18,319
Speaker 3: Gibbs miss his time, which we didn't see last year,

962
00:53:18,840 --> 00:53:22,239
Speaker 3: so he still fits that mold for me around that

963
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:23,440
Speaker 3: RB twenty four range.

964
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:29,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's he's the only thing because he made the case.

965
00:53:29,360 --> 00:53:32,200
Speaker 2: I mean, he this is why you're uh, this is

966
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 2: why who you are man. He just made the case

967
00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 2: for both of us.

968
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:38,839
Speaker 1: So I don't even have to the case that was like,

969
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:40,920
Speaker 1: so you have you.

970
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:42,960
Speaker 3: Have been scaring me off him a little bit, so

971
00:53:43,160 --> 00:53:43,759
Speaker 3: lay it on me.

972
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:45,520
Speaker 1: I would just say that.

973
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:50,120
Speaker 2: In terms of the miss games, Montgomery is the one

974
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 2: that's older and has had the more recent injury issues,

975
00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 2: so I think he's still the more likely to to

976
00:53:55,680 --> 00:53:57,520
Speaker 2: miss games. So it could go both ways, So that

977
00:53:57,520 --> 00:53:59,919
Speaker 2: that to me cancels out. Then you have the fact

978
00:53:59,960 --> 00:54:03,960
Speaker 2: that because Gibbs got to play seventeen games, he really

979
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:08,439
Speaker 2: showed that he could deserve even more what worked this year.

980
00:54:08,600 --> 00:54:10,240
Speaker 2: Then you got the fact that it's the game script.

981
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 2: Then you got the fact that it's a new coaching staff.

982
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 2: Then you got the fact that Montgomery's usually at one

983
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:18,840
Speaker 2: yard per route or below until last year when he

984
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:22,840
Speaker 2: was above two. So he could actually regress from last year,

985
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:26,840
Speaker 2: or he's very likely to in terms of his receptions

986
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 2: regardless of the situation.

987
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 1: So I don't really see a.

988
00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:33,839
Speaker 2: Receiving becoming a big factor, So there's just too narrow

989
00:54:33,920 --> 00:54:35,560
Speaker 2: of a range of outcomes. I actually don't think he

990
00:54:35,600 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 2: has as much upside because he's still the RB twenty

991
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:42,200
Speaker 2: one right now, and you know he's in that RB

992
00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:46,479
Speaker 2: two range where even if Gibbs were to go down,

993
00:54:46,840 --> 00:54:51,200
Speaker 2: I think this Detroit schedule and the team is different

994
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:54,600
Speaker 2: enough that there's a chance Montgomery's still not an RB

995
00:54:54,680 --> 00:54:58,920
Speaker 2: one type of back even if that were to happen,

996
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 2: like Montgomery could get. You know, his sixteen seventeen carries

997
00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:06,000
Speaker 2: a couple catches, not many touchdowns, maybe not many yards

998
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:07,960
Speaker 2: because the old line was bad. And the big red

999
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:11,600
Speaker 2: flag for me was that he really dipped in terms

1000
00:55:11,640 --> 00:55:15,839
Speaker 2: of his yardage before contact efficiency, which is O line

1001
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:19,080
Speaker 2: dependent more so than yards after. But it's still factors

1002
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:23,640
Speaker 2: under the projection, and especially does because you project the.

1003
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:25,800
Speaker 1: Old line not to be as good, especially on the interior.

1004
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:28,080
Speaker 2: So just a lot of things add up for him

1005
00:55:28,239 --> 00:55:32,080
Speaker 2: besides the age to where I don't see the same

1006
00:55:32,200 --> 00:55:36,359
Speaker 2: upside I'm getting where there was usually a scenario where

1007
00:55:36,400 --> 00:55:40,000
Speaker 2: you probably expected him to flat out lead the backfields

1008
00:55:40,040 --> 00:55:42,680
Speaker 2: and touches and gives would be more of a passing

1009
00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:44,960
Speaker 2: guy who was still going to get the carries. But

1010
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:48,600
Speaker 2: now I think there's a big chance that Montgomery is

1011
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 2: Deon Lewis, Like he goes from that even workload to

1012
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:55,720
Speaker 2: just the guy in front of him is so damn

1013
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:59,240
Speaker 2: good that that's a little rich.

1014
00:55:59,120 --> 00:55:59,880
Speaker 1: For me at that spot.

1015
00:56:00,120 --> 00:56:03,240
Speaker 2: Because of the way the draft is kind of breaking

1016
00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:06,040
Speaker 2: out where more people aren't taking the risk at running backs,

1017
00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:09,359
Speaker 2: I think, yeah, I guess there's more maybe there's more

1018
00:56:09,360 --> 00:56:11,560
Speaker 2: of a ceiling for taking Montgomery other people aren't, but

1019
00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 2: I yeah, it's tough for me this year with people

1020
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 2: just like swearing off running backs for four rounds in

1021
00:56:17,680 --> 00:56:18,640
Speaker 2: the movie The Draft.

1022
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:23,760
Speaker 3: Yeah that's fair and also real quick, it goes both ways,

1023
00:56:23,760 --> 00:56:29,239
Speaker 3: Like Jamiir Gibbs has clear RB one overall upside as

1024
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:32,439
Speaker 3: well because you can make the case for him where yeah,

1025
00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:36,480
Speaker 3: like the new offensive coordinator, he might be screw this bullshit,

1026
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:39,399
Speaker 3: you know, fifty to fifty times share David Montgomery. Let's

1027
00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:41,960
Speaker 3: just give Jamiir Gibbs all the touches and now he's

1028
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:46,120
Speaker 3: RB one overall. So yeah, or you know, Montgomery miss

1029
00:56:46,160 --> 00:56:47,799
Speaker 3: is a ton of time And we saw that last

1030
00:56:47,880 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 3: year where Gibbs is clearly you know, elite RB one

1031
00:56:51,560 --> 00:56:54,400
Speaker 3: overall type back. So yeah, I just think both both

1032
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:57,840
Speaker 3: Lions running backs have massive upside. It's just easier to

1033
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:01,040
Speaker 3: plan on getting Montgomery because you know he goes a

1034
00:57:01,080 --> 00:57:03,280
Speaker 3: bit later, whereas Gibbs you need to have a certain

1035
00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 3: draft slot to get him. But I think both both

1036
00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:09,480
Speaker 3: Lions backs certainly have massive, massive ceilings.

1037
00:57:11,000 --> 00:57:15,000
Speaker 2: I mean yeah, and we have to be when we

1038
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:20,560
Speaker 2: say ceilings we mean overall ceilings versus eighty PCE ceilings

1039
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 2: because I would actually argue the opposite, I think because

1040
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:28,360
Speaker 2: they're both going in the top twenty four and Gibbs

1041
00:57:28,440 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 2: is what the RB. You know, he goes top five,

1042
00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:34,080
Speaker 2: there is significant downside to really.

1043
00:57:33,920 --> 00:57:34,439
Speaker 1: Both of them.

1044
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:39,360
Speaker 2: I'm just a little more confident and Gibbs is beating

1045
00:57:39,640 --> 00:57:41,360
Speaker 2: you know, eighty people, but he has the last room

1046
00:57:41,840 --> 00:57:45,200
Speaker 2: to work with too. So it's one of those situations where, yeah,

1047
00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 2: as a squad, they have a lot of upside, but

1048
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:52,280
Speaker 2: our fellow drafters have kind of killed a lot of

1049
00:57:52,320 --> 00:57:53,880
Speaker 2: it as if we by taking them.

1050
00:57:54,080 --> 00:57:54,280
Speaker 1: Yah.

1051
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:57,360
Speaker 3: So yes, he's like the best way I put it

1052
00:57:57,480 --> 00:58:00,800
Speaker 3: in my RB upside piece is like what other running

1053
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:02,760
Speaker 3: backs in like the first couple of rounds, where like

1054
00:58:02,800 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 3: if the backup running back gets hurt, their value goes up,

1055
00:58:05,760 --> 00:58:10,240
Speaker 3: Like with like Sekuon Barkley, will Shipley gets hurt, does

1056
00:58:10,600 --> 00:58:14,600
Speaker 3: can his value go even higher? Probably not? Or Derrick Henry,

1057
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:18,040
Speaker 3: Like if Keaton Mitchell's out that week, does it really matter? No,

1058
00:58:18,640 --> 00:58:21,960
Speaker 3: But if Dave Montgomery's out, Jamier Gibbs, he has another gear,

1059
00:58:23,000 --> 00:58:26,240
Speaker 3: then you know he could get a handful more touches

1060
00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 3: and more goal line or higher percentage of goal line work.

1061
00:58:30,000 --> 00:58:32,960
Speaker 3: He's like a rare breed where he's already gone in

1062
00:58:32,960 --> 00:58:35,760
Speaker 3: the first round and he has an even higher ceiling

1063
00:58:36,160 --> 00:58:39,720
Speaker 3: if his backup goes down, which which is pretty unique

1064
00:58:39,960 --> 00:58:42,240
Speaker 3: that we even have a back field like this. So

1065
00:58:42,440 --> 00:58:44,600
Speaker 3: that's kind of what I mean, where his his ceiling's

1066
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:47,680
Speaker 3: even higher than some of these other facts.

1067
00:58:48,920 --> 00:58:51,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's a it's a fascinating situation. It's just

1068
00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:55,000
Speaker 2: a wide range of aucas. Because the Lions could also

1069
00:58:55,040 --> 00:58:59,360
Speaker 2: score a lot fewer touchdowns overall as a team this

1070
00:58:59,520 --> 00:58:59,920
Speaker 2: year too.

1071
00:59:00,120 --> 00:59:04,200
Speaker 1: That's inter range, Malcolm, just the given what we see.

1072
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:08,320
Speaker 2: Out of them closing the season, and then the schedule

1073
00:59:08,360 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 2: has gotten a lot harder this year.

1074
00:59:09,560 --> 00:59:10,640
Speaker 1: But again you never know.

1075
00:59:10,720 --> 00:59:14,560
Speaker 2: But what's speaking of never knowing? Talk to me about

1076
00:59:14,560 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers backfield?

1077
00:59:16,560 --> 00:59:17,440
Speaker 1: What are you doing it?

1078
00:59:17,560 --> 00:59:22,680
Speaker 2: Because Christian McCaffrey is like, I want to draft him

1079
00:59:22,680 --> 00:59:24,600
Speaker 2: so bad, and then I also want to fade him

1080
00:59:24,720 --> 00:59:27,240
Speaker 2: so bad, So I'm.

1081
00:59:27,120 --> 00:59:28,760
Speaker 1: Glad I know you should get chances to draft.

1082
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:34,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'm gonna do the annual displeasure of trying

1083
00:59:34,160 --> 00:59:38,640
Speaker 3: to figure out the Niners backfield. But like, it's one

1084
00:59:38,680 --> 00:59:41,880
Speaker 3: of those backfields where we hate it because it's so unpredictable.

1085
00:59:42,000 --> 00:59:44,760
Speaker 3: Whatever I say ends up being wrong anyway. But it's

1086
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:48,160
Speaker 3: important because whoever is the lead back is going to

1087
00:59:48,280 --> 00:59:52,400
Speaker 3: crush and you know, starting the season it should be

1088
00:59:52,560 --> 00:59:55,480
Speaker 3: m Chris McCaffrey as long as he's healthy, but we

1089
00:59:55,560 --> 00:59:58,120
Speaker 3: need to figure out what happens if he misses time

1090
00:59:58,200 --> 01:00:02,240
Speaker 3: because last year it was Mason was the back that

1091
01:00:02,280 --> 01:00:05,040
Speaker 3: took over. And what Kyle. This is important because Kyle

1092
01:00:05,080 --> 01:00:08,960
Speaker 3: Shanahan typically just wants to defer to another back at

1093
01:00:09,000 --> 01:00:11,360
Speaker 3: sort of next next man up. You know, he's just

1094
01:00:11,360 --> 01:00:13,960
Speaker 3: gonna have the back be the lead back. So it's

1095
01:00:14,040 --> 01:00:17,000
Speaker 3: it's an important backfield to kind of target who you

1096
01:00:17,040 --> 01:00:19,480
Speaker 3: think the number two back is and right now I

1097
01:00:19,480 --> 01:00:22,800
Speaker 3: think it's Isaac Grendo. So take it with a grain

1098
01:00:22,880 --> 01:00:26,320
Speaker 3: of salt, because it could be Jordan James, who they

1099
01:00:26,440 --> 01:00:28,520
Speaker 3: drafted in the fifth round. It could be somebody that

1100
01:00:28,600 --> 01:00:31,560
Speaker 3: doesn't even exist yet. We don't know. I'm gonna go.

1101
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:35,560
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Isaac Grendo. I just every time

1102
01:00:35,840 --> 01:00:39,280
Speaker 3: I saw him play last year, like he looked like,

1103
01:00:39,840 --> 01:00:42,680
Speaker 3: you know, a great fit for Kyle Shanahan's scheme. You know,

1104
01:00:42,720 --> 01:00:45,720
Speaker 3: they took him in the fourth round, but he missed

1105
01:00:46,000 --> 01:00:48,600
Speaker 3: quite a bit of training camp and preseason. I think

1106
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:50,680
Speaker 3: I think it was like a hamstring injury or something.

1107
01:00:51,320 --> 01:00:55,000
Speaker 3: So when McCaffrey was out, he couldn't take over. That's

1108
01:00:55,000 --> 01:00:58,280
Speaker 3: why they had to turn to Jordan Mason. But once

1109
01:00:58,360 --> 01:01:00,440
Speaker 3: Grendo is fully healthy last year and towards the end

1110
01:01:00,440 --> 01:01:05,040
Speaker 3: of the year, he did replace McCaffrey as the starting

1111
01:01:05,120 --> 01:01:07,720
Speaker 3: back and he went off. He averaged the eight most

1112
01:01:08,600 --> 01:01:10,840
Speaker 3: best ball points added per game over that stretch, and

1113
01:01:10,880 --> 01:01:13,160
Speaker 3: if you look at his profile, he's one of the

1114
01:01:13,200 --> 01:01:17,040
Speaker 3: most athletic backs we've ever seen. He had a perfect

1115
01:01:17,040 --> 01:01:20,720
Speaker 3: athletic score. He actually had the second best athletic score

1116
01:01:21,600 --> 01:01:23,880
Speaker 3: the combine over the last thirty seven years, So this

1117
01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:27,280
Speaker 3: guy is talented. He's in one of the best schemes

1118
01:01:27,680 --> 01:01:30,640
Speaker 3: we have for running backs in the Niners. But just

1119
01:01:30,920 --> 01:01:34,080
Speaker 3: the one downside is we can ever figure out who

1120
01:01:34,160 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 3: the next man up will be. But I think in

1121
01:01:36,040 --> 01:01:40,800
Speaker 3: this case, I'm pretty confident it'll be Grendo. But this

1122
01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:43,560
Speaker 3: is one of those things I'll be paying close attention

1123
01:01:43,600 --> 01:01:46,600
Speaker 3: to the next couple weeks. With Jordan James leg I

1124
01:01:46,720 --> 01:01:49,640
Speaker 3: just mentioned they drafted him in the fifth round, so

1125
01:01:49,680 --> 01:01:53,600
Speaker 3: I me paying attention to training camp notes preseason. But

1126
01:01:53,840 --> 01:01:56,440
Speaker 3: I've been taking some flyers on Grendo where you know

1127
01:01:56,480 --> 01:01:59,000
Speaker 3: he's only gonna offer value if McCaffrey miss his time.

1128
01:01:59,600 --> 01:02:03,360
Speaker 3: But kind of what you're saying, it's he's missed, you know,

1129
01:02:03,920 --> 01:02:06,760
Speaker 3: ten plus games a few seasons now. He always carries

1130
01:02:06,760 --> 01:02:09,760
Speaker 3: that injury risk, so later in his career, I think

1131
01:02:09,760 --> 01:02:12,320
Speaker 3: it's it's worth investing in the backup running back, even

1132
01:02:12,320 --> 01:02:15,280
Speaker 3: in best ball, because again we're shooting for that massive

1133
01:02:15,360 --> 01:02:18,680
Speaker 3: upside and there's a chance that Grendo could end up

1134
01:02:18,720 --> 01:02:21,320
Speaker 3: starting ten plus games. So he's one of those backs

1135
01:02:21,320 --> 01:02:24,720
Speaker 3: where I do it sparingly, but there are some times

1136
01:02:24,800 --> 01:02:26,840
Speaker 3: I take a flyer on Grendo.

1137
01:02:28,480 --> 01:02:31,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, because the things that are knocks on

1138
01:02:31,320 --> 01:02:35,320
Speaker 2: him are mostly not actually things he would weigh a

1139
01:02:35,400 --> 01:02:38,080
Speaker 2: model like we Yeah, like it's been a lot of

1140
01:02:38,320 --> 01:02:42,400
Speaker 2: Shenanigan's Shannan in the past, But no, that's just randomness.

1141
01:02:42,240 --> 01:02:47,040
Speaker 2: It's not anything specific to do with Grindo himself. And

1142
01:02:47,200 --> 01:02:48,280
Speaker 2: so yeah, I think that.

1143
01:02:49,120 --> 01:02:56,520
Speaker 1: And also there's probably just bias wise, he's being undervalue

1144
01:02:56,600 --> 01:03:00,880
Speaker 1: because remember that touchdown that he conceded by lighting or something,

1145
01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:02,800
Speaker 1: didn't he like slide down and then somebody else got

1146
01:03:02,800 --> 01:03:05,080
Speaker 1: a touchdown. Yeah, and they were all making fun of him.

1147
01:03:05,080 --> 01:03:07,919
Speaker 2: And meanwhile Ricky Piersall just went off on this poor

1148
01:03:08,000 --> 01:03:12,960
Speaker 2: Lions defense after being invisible, and so he's probably on

1149
01:03:13,000 --> 01:03:15,880
Speaker 2: the other end of that. So there there's a lot

1150
01:03:15,920 --> 01:03:18,480
Speaker 2: to like about Garenda. I mean, the fact that they

1151
01:03:19,600 --> 01:03:22,240
Speaker 2: got rid of Mason, they traded him and then they

1152
01:03:22,320 --> 01:03:25,400
Speaker 2: and they also got rid of Elijah Mitchell did let

1153
01:03:25,480 --> 01:03:28,240
Speaker 2: him walk and you check us off the team for

1154
01:03:28,280 --> 01:03:32,360
Speaker 2: a second, but you know about a Canada did he

1155
01:03:32,360 --> 01:03:34,560
Speaker 2: He didn't get like a snappy when everyone was hurt.

1156
01:03:34,840 --> 01:03:35,640
Speaker 1: It was all I know.

1157
01:03:35,680 --> 01:03:39,080
Speaker 3: But as you say that, he's probably the dark horse

1158
01:03:39,120 --> 01:03:43,120
Speaker 3: to be the back that actually ends up yeah right, yeah,

1159
01:03:43,200 --> 01:03:45,200
Speaker 3: tearing it up right, because we were high on him

1160
01:03:45,200 --> 01:03:48,000
Speaker 3: a couple of years ago. He's disappeared, but he's now

1161
01:03:48,040 --> 01:03:51,880
Speaker 3: resurfaced as the fifth or sixth running back on the

1162
01:03:51,960 --> 01:03:54,560
Speaker 3: Niners depth chart, so even he is somebody we have

1163
01:03:54,600 --> 01:03:55,320
Speaker 3: to keep cabs on.

1164
01:03:55,440 --> 01:03:58,920
Speaker 2: Still, Yeah, it's really the more I look at it,

1165
01:03:59,120 --> 01:04:03,920
Speaker 2: I think it's the John Lynch thing too, because he's

1166
01:04:03,960 --> 01:04:07,640
Speaker 2: had some wild swings in terms of his effectiveness with

1167
01:04:07,640 --> 01:04:10,880
Speaker 2: with moves. It almost seems like his draft that times

1168
01:04:10,880 --> 01:04:15,760
Speaker 2: are in inversely correlated where you hit the rock thirty

1169
01:04:16,200 --> 01:04:19,800
Speaker 2: in as mister irrelevant. We also drafted Trey Answer. That's

1170
01:04:19,840 --> 01:04:22,200
Speaker 2: that's not hard to do. That's kind of hard to do.

1171
01:04:22,680 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 2: So that's kind of that's kind of how I draft

1172
01:04:24,960 --> 01:04:27,560
Speaker 2: my fancy teams. Like the first team I drafted, Randy

1173
01:04:27,560 --> 01:04:30,080
Speaker 2: Moss is my last pick, and my first pick was

1174
01:04:30,120 --> 01:04:32,680
Speaker 2: Cordell Stewart, who I think got bench mid season or

1175
01:04:32,720 --> 01:04:36,120
Speaker 2: something like that. But yeah, sometimes it happens.

1176
01:04:36,480 --> 01:04:38,880
Speaker 1: Slash Yeah, man, I remember quarter he was.

1177
01:04:39,200 --> 01:04:42,400
Speaker 2: He was one of the og uh kind of running

1178
01:04:42,480 --> 01:04:44,720
Speaker 2: quarterbacks who you just just knew he was gonna do

1179
01:04:44,760 --> 01:04:45,080
Speaker 2: good in.

1180
01:04:45,040 --> 01:04:47,520
Speaker 1: Fantasy if he got the Yep, he got the shot.

1181
01:04:47,680 --> 01:04:51,640
Speaker 1: But let's go let's go to wide receiver.

1182
01:04:52,040 --> 01:05:00,240
Speaker 2: Uh, let's let's start with uh this, NFC, what is

1183
01:05:00,240 --> 01:05:00,360
Speaker 2: is it?

1184
01:05:00,440 --> 01:05:00,800
Speaker 3: The center?

1185
01:05:00,920 --> 01:05:06,560
Speaker 2: Not to North? You're right, NFC North. You just talked

1186
01:05:06,560 --> 01:05:08,480
Speaker 2: to me about Montgomery.

1187
01:05:09,640 --> 01:05:10,680
Speaker 1: Talk to me about game O.

1188
01:05:12,000 --> 01:05:16,800
Speaker 3: Yeah. So Jamison Williams is great for Best Ball. First

1189
01:05:16,840 --> 01:05:19,760
Speaker 3: of all, I mean he finally broke out in year three.

1190
01:05:19,840 --> 01:05:22,360
Speaker 3: That was actually last year, was his first full season.

1191
01:05:22,360 --> 01:05:25,160
Speaker 3: If you remember his rookie season, he missed a ton

1192
01:05:25,200 --> 01:05:28,160
Speaker 3: of time because he was coming back from an ACL

1193
01:05:28,240 --> 01:05:31,200
Speaker 3: tear he tore in college, like I want to say January,

1194
01:05:31,280 --> 01:05:34,000
Speaker 3: so he didn't have much time to get ready for

1195
01:05:34,080 --> 01:05:37,880
Speaker 3: his rookie season. Then his second season he was suspended.

1196
01:05:39,080 --> 01:05:42,000
Speaker 3: Then last year finally got to play a full season

1197
01:05:43,120 --> 01:05:47,000
Speaker 3: and really broke out. He finished eighteenth in basketball points

1198
01:05:47,040 --> 01:05:50,200
Speaker 3: added per game. There was actually two games where he

1199
01:05:50,240 --> 01:05:53,640
Speaker 3: played the entire game and scored less than one fancy point.

1200
01:05:54,120 --> 01:05:56,240
Speaker 3: But like I said, that doesn't really kill you in

1201
01:05:56,360 --> 01:05:59,000
Speaker 3: Best Ball, we're really just trying to take advantage of

1202
01:05:59,000 --> 01:06:02,000
Speaker 3: those spiked weeks. Those are what he provides as being

1203
01:06:02,080 --> 01:06:06,560
Speaker 3: just you know, explosive player in general, plus his downfield target.

1204
01:06:06,760 --> 01:06:10,360
Speaker 3: So you know, the Lions offense could take a step

1205
01:06:10,400 --> 01:06:13,560
Speaker 3: back this year without Ben Johnson, but it could also mean,

1206
01:06:14,160 --> 01:06:17,280
Speaker 3: you know, they have to throw more, could mean Jamis

1207
01:06:17,320 --> 01:06:22,440
Speaker 3: and Williams specifically sees more targets. So I think just

1208
01:06:22,600 --> 01:06:25,320
Speaker 3: he has a ton of upside and he's only going

1209
01:06:25,360 --> 01:06:28,400
Speaker 3: wide receiver twenty five. I think that's an excellent range

1210
01:06:28,880 --> 01:06:32,080
Speaker 3: to take a player like Jamison Williams, where we know

1211
01:06:32,120 --> 01:06:33,720
Speaker 3: he's gonna have his big weeks, but he could be

1212
01:06:33,760 --> 01:06:37,120
Speaker 3: even more consistent this year and who knows provide top

1213
01:06:37,160 --> 01:06:39,919
Speaker 3: ten value. We don't know, but I think going wide

1214
01:06:39,920 --> 01:06:42,320
Speaker 3: receiver twenty five that gives us plenty of cushion to

1215
01:06:43,040 --> 01:06:45,360
Speaker 3: have even more ceiling that we've seen yet. So he's

1216
01:06:45,360 --> 01:06:48,920
Speaker 3: a player specifically I think in bestball leagues, I'm looking

1217
01:06:48,920 --> 01:06:50,000
Speaker 3: at target when I can.

1218
01:06:51,920 --> 01:06:52,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that.

1219
01:06:52,840 --> 01:06:56,200
Speaker 2: Just goes back to another reason why I don't like

1220
01:06:56,280 --> 01:06:59,680
Speaker 2: Montgomery as much as because I think they're like the

1221
01:06:59,800 --> 01:07:03,520
Speaker 2: line past offense from a game script perspective, there's so

1222
01:07:03,600 --> 01:07:06,320
Speaker 2: many guys that are kind of being taken that there's

1223
01:07:06,400 --> 01:07:09,760
Speaker 2: there is a lot of downside to just people who

1224
01:07:09,800 --> 01:07:13,080
Speaker 2: are investing in the Lions period to fail. So like

1225
01:07:13,720 --> 01:07:17,640
Speaker 2: but I think it's a lot more likely that Jamos

1226
01:07:18,160 --> 01:07:24,760
Speaker 2: and Manra Theporta go off. If you know they are

1227
01:07:24,760 --> 01:07:26,160
Speaker 2: gonna do what I think they're gonna do this year,

1228
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:27,560
Speaker 2: then then the other way around.

1229
01:07:27,600 --> 01:07:29,600
Speaker 1: So yeah, that that's it's I.

1230
01:07:29,520 --> 01:07:34,120
Speaker 2: Think William William, especially with the black hole at wide

1231
01:07:34,160 --> 01:07:37,160
Speaker 2: receiver three potentially too with Patrick or.

1232
01:07:37,160 --> 01:07:40,480
Speaker 1: Is it going to be the rookie there? So who knows.

1233
01:07:40,520 --> 01:07:45,160
Speaker 2: But William's in a good spot, really good spot, uh

1234
01:07:45,240 --> 01:07:45,520
Speaker 2: for me.

1235
01:07:46,040 --> 01:07:50,040
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I gotta go with my Jaguars.

1236
01:07:50,320 --> 01:07:55,320
Speaker 2: So Travis Hunter, man, uh, I think you just got

1237
01:07:55,480 --> 01:08:00,320
Speaker 2: to stop questioning it because look at the talent. Look

1238
01:08:00,320 --> 01:08:02,640
Speaker 2: out what they gave up for him. You look at

1239
01:08:02,680 --> 01:08:07,600
Speaker 2: the coach. If the coach was a defensive coach, then

1240
01:08:07,840 --> 01:08:10,360
Speaker 2: I think you would be a little more concerned. But

1241
01:08:10,520 --> 01:08:15,120
Speaker 2: this is a guy who had Tampa Bay coming off

1242
01:08:15,160 --> 01:08:18,920
Speaker 2: of a step up turned into a completely different offense,

1243
01:08:18,960 --> 01:08:23,679
Speaker 2: a historically good offense in many respects. And I think

1244
01:08:24,400 --> 01:08:26,599
Speaker 2: Hunter is going to be a polarizing guy. I think

1245
01:08:26,800 --> 01:08:30,599
Speaker 2: he is because there's uncertainty and what we've learned both

1246
01:08:30,920 --> 01:08:33,720
Speaker 2: you know, from these drafts and things just like we

1247
01:08:33,800 --> 01:08:35,599
Speaker 2: see in real life, like with the with the stock

1248
01:08:35,640 --> 01:08:36,439
Speaker 2: market to go back to that.

1249
01:08:36,479 --> 01:08:38,760
Speaker 1: People don't like it certain uncertainty, even when they are

1250
01:08:38,800 --> 01:08:39,360
Speaker 1: supposed to.

1251
01:08:39,479 --> 01:08:42,240
Speaker 2: So I think the correct move is to embrace the

1252
01:08:42,360 --> 01:08:47,320
Speaker 2: uncertainty with a Hunter. And it's most even conservative projections

1253
01:08:47,360 --> 01:08:51,280
Speaker 2: I have for him. He still tends to finish close

1254
01:08:51,320 --> 01:08:54,240
Speaker 2: to a top twenty wide receiver and that or inside

1255
01:08:54,240 --> 01:08:57,080
Speaker 2: it easily with the ceiling of a top ten receiver.

1256
01:08:57,160 --> 01:09:01,160
Speaker 2: And that's with Brian Thomas junior there. And I just

1257
01:09:01,200 --> 01:09:06,519
Speaker 2: think that that that outcome is enough for me because

1258
01:09:06,560 --> 01:09:08,720
Speaker 2: the floor I don't I just don't see as much

1259
01:09:08,720 --> 01:09:12,920
Speaker 2: of a floor with him being you know, drafted number two,

1260
01:09:13,160 --> 01:09:15,639
Speaker 2: them giving up a ton, and you have a coach

1261
01:09:15,640 --> 01:09:18,960
Speaker 2: that might make this team like fifty percent like better

1262
01:09:19,080 --> 01:09:22,959
Speaker 2: as a as a as a realistic range of outcomes

1263
01:09:22,960 --> 01:09:25,160
Speaker 2: because you saw him do it a year ago.

1264
01:09:24,920 --> 01:09:26,400
Speaker 1: In a very similar situation.

1265
01:09:26,600 --> 01:09:29,040
Speaker 2: So I mean there's even a range of outcomes where

1266
01:09:30,000 --> 01:09:33,320
Speaker 2: Hunter is on part with Thomas, you know.

1267
01:09:33,520 --> 01:09:35,639
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not I'm a big Tom sense.

1268
01:09:35,680 --> 01:09:38,680
Speaker 2: I don't think it's likely, but it's not out of

1269
01:09:38,720 --> 01:09:42,080
Speaker 2: the question, depending on how everything shakes out. So I mean,

1270
01:09:42,760 --> 01:09:45,320
Speaker 2: I think I think he's a clear guy who we're

1271
01:09:45,400 --> 01:09:47,800
Speaker 2: just kind of overthinking it, or I would be a

1272
01:09:47,840 --> 01:09:54,840
Speaker 2: lot scared of McMillan going they're just assuming that he's

1273
01:09:54,880 --> 01:09:56,639
Speaker 2: gonna be flat out you know what.

1274
01:09:56,680 --> 01:09:58,720
Speaker 1: He what we're drafting.

1275
01:09:58,439 --> 01:10:01,519
Speaker 2: Him as in a offense where there was like an

1276
01:10:01,600 --> 01:10:04,479
Speaker 2: undrafted guy that outplayed guys got been drafted in.

1277
01:10:04,439 --> 01:10:04,920
Speaker 1: The first round.

1278
01:10:04,960 --> 01:10:07,280
Speaker 2: A quarterback has been horrible for most of his career.

1279
01:10:07,439 --> 01:10:10,760
Speaker 2: So yeah, give me a give me some Hunter all day.

1280
01:10:11,360 --> 01:10:13,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it. And first of all, he's like

1281
01:10:13,960 --> 01:10:17,000
Speaker 3: Otani where he's just not like average at wide receiver

1282
01:10:17,080 --> 01:10:20,200
Speaker 3: and cornerback. He won the top award for both positions

1283
01:10:20,320 --> 01:10:23,160
Speaker 3: in college last year. He's a freak. Apparently he doesn't

1284
01:10:23,160 --> 01:10:26,400
Speaker 3: get tired, so I'm less concerned about him needing the

1285
01:10:26,439 --> 01:10:31,120
Speaker 3: rest knowing that. But also it's interesting because like I

1286
01:10:31,160 --> 01:10:33,439
Speaker 3: was watching Otani last night. He was he pitched three

1287
01:10:33,479 --> 01:10:37,360
Speaker 3: innings and he had a bomb. He plays the position

1288
01:10:37,479 --> 01:10:42,719
Speaker 3: he defends, so like, think about it that way. He's

1289
01:10:42,920 --> 01:10:47,519
Speaker 3: he's playing receiver and cornerback. He's seeing both angles in

1290
01:10:47,600 --> 01:10:50,800
Speaker 3: both sides, so it actually helps him become better at

1291
01:10:50,840 --> 01:10:54,840
Speaker 3: both positions because he's you know, he's playing offense on

1292
01:10:54,840 --> 01:10:57,400
Speaker 3: one side and playing the thing that's supposed to stop

1293
01:10:57,439 --> 01:10:59,960
Speaker 3: it on the other So I think it just gives

1294
01:11:00,080 --> 01:11:02,560
Speaker 3: him a leg up, and I think he's going to

1295
01:11:02,640 --> 01:11:06,280
Speaker 3: be a great receiver and a good cornerback. But I've

1296
01:11:06,320 --> 01:11:08,080
Speaker 3: never really thought of it that way, where you know,

1297
01:11:08,160 --> 01:11:10,960
Speaker 3: when I was watching Otani pitch, you know, he's thinking

1298
01:11:11,040 --> 01:11:14,400
Speaker 3: like a pitcher when he's hitting, and he's thinking like

1299
01:11:14,439 --> 01:11:18,240
Speaker 3: a hitter when he's pitching. He knows how to attack,

1300
01:11:19,479 --> 01:11:22,559
Speaker 3: you know, the other side, based on playing both positions.

1301
01:11:22,560 --> 01:11:24,600
Speaker 3: So I think we've just never seen this. So I

1302
01:11:24,600 --> 01:11:27,799
Speaker 3: think people, I agree, are kind of sleeping on Hunter's

1303
01:11:27,920 --> 01:11:31,200
Speaker 3: upside and maybe overlooking into the fact that he plays

1304
01:11:31,240 --> 01:11:34,720
Speaker 3: both positions too much, where it could just like be

1305
01:11:34,880 --> 01:11:37,639
Speaker 3: the greatest thing ever. So you definitely want to get

1306
01:11:37,680 --> 01:11:39,760
Speaker 3: on those things early. Like you were talking about Jayden

1307
01:11:39,840 --> 01:11:43,640
Speaker 3: Daniels last year at QB sixteen, good luck, you know,

1308
01:11:43,760 --> 01:11:46,559
Speaker 3: taking him outside the top five now. So yeah, when

1309
01:11:46,640 --> 01:11:48,880
Speaker 3: you have these unique players, you want to take them

1310
01:11:49,920 --> 01:11:52,640
Speaker 3: before they blow up, and that that could be the

1311
01:11:52,680 --> 01:11:55,280
Speaker 3: case with Hunter where he's being drafted right now. His

1312
01:11:55,400 --> 01:11:58,519
Speaker 3: ADPs like moving all over the place. I think it's

1313
01:11:58,600 --> 01:12:02,000
Speaker 3: like wide receiver twenty seven, now, what's it at now?

1314
01:12:02,120 --> 01:12:04,880
Speaker 3: But it's been check that but.

1315
01:12:04,840 --> 01:12:05,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've seen it.

1316
01:12:05,600 --> 01:12:09,320
Speaker 2: I've seen it between the twenty five and thirty range,

1317
01:12:09,640 --> 01:12:13,240
Speaker 2: but trending more to the lower end of that. And

1318
01:12:13,320 --> 01:12:15,840
Speaker 2: I just think that, I mean, if we're if everyone

1319
01:12:15,960 --> 01:12:18,600
Speaker 2: was so bullishaw him a couple of months ago, what

1320
01:12:18,960 --> 01:12:21,360
Speaker 2: exactly changed there?

1321
01:12:21,520 --> 01:12:24,880
Speaker 3: Was camp videos? Well, it was like mini camp. He

1322
01:12:25,120 --> 01:12:28,120
Speaker 3: was standing next to Brian Brian Thomas Junior, which isn't

1323
01:12:28,200 --> 01:12:31,080
Speaker 3: a good side by side because you know, Brian Thomas

1324
01:12:31,160 --> 01:12:33,680
Speaker 3: Junior is a beast, and you know, people are just

1325
01:12:34,520 --> 01:12:37,080
Speaker 3: questioning it. It's kind of like remember Jamar Chase remember

1326
01:12:37,160 --> 01:12:40,600
Speaker 3: his rookie season. Oh yeah, he's having difficulties seeing the

1327
01:12:40,600 --> 01:12:42,880
Speaker 3: ball because he's used to the white stripe. You know,

1328
01:12:43,000 --> 01:12:45,920
Speaker 3: Bullshit like that. I think that's going on with a

1329
01:12:46,080 --> 01:12:49,479
Speaker 3: Hunter a bit. Same thing with Deebo showing up looking

1330
01:12:49,479 --> 01:12:53,160
Speaker 3: a little overweight. I think it was just people kind

1331
01:12:53,200 --> 01:12:56,639
Speaker 3: of reacting to some clips they saw with Travis Hunter.

1332
01:12:57,080 --> 01:12:59,920
Speaker 3: So I do think people soured on him. But that's

1333
01:13:00,080 --> 01:13:01,960
Speaker 3: that's why I think his A d P took a

1334
01:13:01,960 --> 01:13:05,320
Speaker 3: bit of a hit. Was just, you know, social media nonsense,

1335
01:13:06,720 --> 01:13:07,760
Speaker 3: and it's not always not.

1336
01:13:07,680 --> 01:13:08,639
Speaker 1: I agree, it's nonsense.

1337
01:13:08,640 --> 01:13:11,880
Speaker 2: Like I'm but you I've been a record of saying, uh,

1338
01:13:11,920 --> 01:13:14,720
Speaker 2: the debo is my one exception where I've been so

1339
01:13:14,880 --> 01:13:15,719
Speaker 2: anti puffed piece.

1340
01:13:16,240 --> 01:13:17,400
Speaker 1: I've called it out every year.

1341
01:13:17,600 --> 01:13:19,600
Speaker 2: It helps so much to not give in that like

1342
01:13:19,800 --> 01:13:21,920
Speaker 2: pay much mind, but take note of it so you

1343
01:13:21,920 --> 01:13:25,360
Speaker 2: can kind of manipulate it. But with Debo, when he

1344
01:13:25,400 --> 01:13:27,320
Speaker 2: comes in his fat debo, he's usually gonna have a

1345
01:13:27,320 --> 01:13:30,040
Speaker 2: bad year. But I think he's on he's on pace

1346
01:13:30,120 --> 01:13:33,439
Speaker 2: to come in as as as as debo debo this year,

1347
01:13:33,479 --> 01:13:35,839
Speaker 2: So hopefully you gotta we gotta keep tazling.

1348
01:13:35,920 --> 01:13:37,719
Speaker 1: But I totally, I totally agree.

1349
01:13:37,760 --> 01:13:39,760
Speaker 2: It's got a bet on this guy's talent and Hunter

1350
01:13:39,840 --> 01:13:43,400
Speaker 2: and they there's this is a confirmation bias kind of

1351
01:13:43,400 --> 01:13:46,280
Speaker 2: week these days, because you don't just sit guys. You

1352
01:13:46,320 --> 01:13:48,880
Speaker 2: gotta you you gotta take advantage of quarterbacks on rookie

1353
01:13:48,920 --> 01:13:52,479
Speaker 2: deals and and you know, uh, early round picks on

1354
01:13:52,560 --> 01:13:56,600
Speaker 2: rookie deals, So you don't just traded half your draft

1355
01:13:57,280 --> 01:13:59,400
Speaker 2: as an offensive coach to go and get a guy

1356
01:13:59,600 --> 01:14:01,880
Speaker 2: who you're gonna play an offense like if anything, he's

1357
01:14:01,880 --> 01:14:04,560
Speaker 2: gonna play everything like you said, it's gonna be Otani

1358
01:14:04,600 --> 01:14:07,200
Speaker 2: and just do it all he did in Collude. So

1359
01:14:07,439 --> 01:14:10,280
Speaker 2: and the mental load thing that could be that could

1360
01:14:10,280 --> 01:14:13,639
Speaker 2: be huge because there has to be a massive mental

1361
01:14:13,640 --> 01:14:18,360
Speaker 2: burden playing a cornerback as a rookie and receiver as

1362
01:14:18,400 --> 01:14:20,559
Speaker 2: a rookie, and both of those things are gonna be

1363
01:14:20,560 --> 01:14:21,240
Speaker 2: reduced to your.

1364
01:14:21,120 --> 01:14:23,439
Speaker 1: Point, all right, who who you got next to?

1365
01:14:23,439 --> 01:14:26,960
Speaker 3: Wide receiver? Yeah, so all just all combine these two together.

1366
01:14:27,000 --> 01:14:31,800
Speaker 3: But there's two receivers that aren't rookies again like Trey

1367
01:14:31,840 --> 01:14:34,439
Speaker 3: Harris and Jayden and Higgins or rookies in this range

1368
01:14:34,439 --> 01:14:36,920
Speaker 3: I have been targeting. But it's this wide receiver forty

1369
01:14:36,960 --> 01:14:40,200
Speaker 3: five to fifty five range I always found is like

1370
01:14:40,280 --> 01:14:42,960
Speaker 3: the best range to take some flyers on guys and

1371
01:14:43,040 --> 01:14:46,719
Speaker 3: kind of finalize your your wide receiver depth. I typically

1372
01:14:46,760 --> 01:14:50,320
Speaker 3: don't like having too many guys beyond this range. Need

1373
01:14:50,320 --> 01:14:53,200
Speaker 3: to fill that out. So the first is Darnel Mooney,

1374
01:14:54,160 --> 01:14:56,479
Speaker 3: who is going wide receiver forty five right now, And

1375
01:14:56,520 --> 01:14:58,800
Speaker 3: I just think it's it's kind of sneaky because he's not,

1376
01:14:59,280 --> 01:15:02,720
Speaker 3: you know, a second see rookie kind of guy with

1377
01:15:02,840 --> 01:15:07,439
Speaker 3: upside like Harris and Higgins obviously, but you know he

1378
01:15:07,640 --> 01:15:10,799
Speaker 3: he established a very solid floor in his first season

1379
01:15:11,280 --> 01:15:15,679
Speaker 3: with the Falcons. He was inside the top thirty forty

1380
01:15:15,720 --> 01:15:18,960
Speaker 3: four percent of the time, which ranked thirty fifth. We

1381
01:15:19,080 --> 01:15:21,240
Speaker 3: just didn't see the Spike Weeks I thought he might

1382
01:15:21,320 --> 01:15:23,880
Speaker 3: have in this offense because he is, you know, a

1383
01:15:23,880 --> 01:15:28,160
Speaker 3: good downfield threat. But I think with Michael Penix Junior

1384
01:15:28,200 --> 01:15:33,240
Speaker 3: taking over for Kirk Cousins, that could happen this year

1385
01:15:33,280 --> 01:15:37,600
Speaker 3: because Pennix was considered the top deep ball passer in

1386
01:15:37,680 --> 01:15:40,760
Speaker 3: last year's class and we kind of saw that last year,

1387
01:15:40,760 --> 01:15:43,559
Speaker 3: and just in terms of how willing he was to

1388
01:15:43,600 --> 01:15:46,840
Speaker 3: throw downfield. Uh, he threw deep fourteen percent of the

1389
01:15:46,880 --> 01:15:50,160
Speaker 3: time compared to Kirk Cousins just seven percent of the time.

1390
01:15:51,080 --> 01:15:54,320
Speaker 3: And that's significant for Mooney because he was the Falcon's

1391
01:15:54,439 --> 01:15:56,720
Speaker 3: top downfield target. So I think if we're just going

1392
01:15:56,800 --> 01:16:00,599
Speaker 3: to see more downfield passes, that's going to help Mooning

1393
01:16:00,640 --> 01:16:04,160
Speaker 3: specifically and help unlock you know, more speed, you know

1394
01:16:04,280 --> 01:16:07,439
Speaker 3: ceiling Spike Weeks, which helps for best ball. So I

1395
01:16:07,520 --> 01:16:11,960
Speaker 3: like his floor ceiling combo in this range. And the

1396
01:16:11,960 --> 01:16:14,400
Speaker 3: next guy is at the tail end of this range.

1397
01:16:14,479 --> 01:16:18,720
Speaker 3: It's Rashid Shaheed going wide receiver fifty four. He's more

1398
01:16:18,760 --> 01:16:23,800
Speaker 3: of a classic best ball type target. You know, he

1399
01:16:24,600 --> 01:16:28,160
Speaker 3: had a season ending injury back in week six last year,

1400
01:16:28,200 --> 01:16:31,120
Speaker 3: but before he went down, he ranked twenty second and

1401
01:16:31,240 --> 01:16:34,920
Speaker 3: best ball points per game, And that's just because you

1402
01:16:34,920 --> 01:16:37,680
Speaker 3: know he's a downfield threat. If he does catch a

1403
01:16:37,680 --> 01:16:39,639
Speaker 3: couple of balls in a game, you know he could

1404
01:16:39,880 --> 01:16:43,640
Speaker 3: rack up yards and longer touchdowns. So he has a

1405
01:16:43,720 --> 01:16:48,240
Speaker 3: high ceiling, low floor combo, which is great for best ball. Now,

1406
01:16:48,280 --> 01:16:50,519
Speaker 3: heading into this year, we don't really know who the

1407
01:16:50,640 --> 01:16:53,080
Speaker 3: quarterback is going to be. It's probably gonna be second

1408
01:16:53,120 --> 01:16:58,559
Speaker 3: round rookie Tyler Shuck, but I was looking he was

1409
01:16:58,640 --> 01:17:03,360
Speaker 3: decent down downfield thrower. Last year. He ranked eighteenth out

1410
01:17:03,360 --> 01:17:06,519
Speaker 3: of one hundred and fifty qualified college passers in terms

1411
01:17:06,600 --> 01:17:09,799
Speaker 3: of big throw rate downfield, So I think he could

1412
01:17:10,280 --> 01:17:13,479
Speaker 3: be able to have a connection with Shaheed. Plus, I

1413
01:17:13,520 --> 01:17:17,360
Speaker 3: know you're high on Alvin Kamara, and this offense in

1414
01:17:17,439 --> 01:17:22,320
Speaker 3: general could be better under new head coach Kellen Moore,

1415
01:17:22,680 --> 01:17:26,200
Speaker 3: who I think will maximize a player like Rashid Shaheed's

1416
01:17:26,200 --> 01:17:28,840
Speaker 3: skill set. So I do like the situation for she

1417
01:17:29,080 --> 01:17:31,760
Speaker 3: he this year if he stays healthy. So again, in

1418
01:17:31,800 --> 01:17:34,960
Speaker 3: this wide receiver fifty four range, I think he's a

1419
01:17:35,080 --> 01:17:38,280
Speaker 3: He's a pretty good best ball specific target where we

1420
01:17:38,320 --> 01:17:40,320
Speaker 3: don't really need to figure out when those spike weeks

1421
01:17:40,320 --> 01:17:43,280
Speaker 3: will happen. You just kind of get them automatically in

1422
01:17:43,400 --> 01:17:45,760
Speaker 3: best ball. So he's one of the guys that I

1423
01:17:45,760 --> 01:17:47,360
Speaker 3: do like to target in this range as well.

1424
01:17:48,160 --> 01:17:51,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, this range has historically been very profitable and then

1425
01:17:51,720 --> 01:17:54,200
Speaker 2: it kind of falls off a cliff. That's that's that's

1426
01:17:54,200 --> 01:17:56,000
Speaker 2: how it's been. And it makes sense, you know. It's

1427
01:17:56,320 --> 01:18:01,080
Speaker 2: it's when you start getting past that top half of

1428
01:18:01,120 --> 01:18:04,200
Speaker 2: the second best receiver on each NFL team and into that.

1429
01:18:04,240 --> 01:18:07,080
Speaker 2: You know, it's just it's just harder to predict and

1430
01:18:07,120 --> 01:18:09,400
Speaker 2: it's harder to sustain for a full season.

1431
01:18:09,400 --> 01:18:10,759
Speaker 1: So it makes sense.

1432
01:18:10,880 --> 01:18:13,519
Speaker 2: And I think there's gonna be some some land mines

1433
01:18:13,520 --> 01:18:14,439
Speaker 2: in there too.

1434
01:18:14,520 --> 01:18:21,080
Speaker 1: I mean, you got guys like Pittman, cup I, you, Coleman.

1435
01:18:21,400 --> 01:18:24,080
Speaker 2: There's a lot of guys who people might be more

1436
01:18:24,080 --> 01:18:28,519
Speaker 2: excited about, but they I mean, he just kind of

1437
01:18:28,720 --> 01:18:29,599
Speaker 2: looking at what's.

1438
01:18:29,439 --> 01:18:32,040
Speaker 1: Going on around them and their situations.

1439
01:18:31,800 --> 01:18:34,000
Speaker 2: It's tough, I like, down to the player, so I

1440
01:18:34,040 --> 01:18:35,960
Speaker 2: think he would actually be on the other end of that,

1441
01:18:36,000 --> 01:18:39,439
Speaker 2: but he still got to navigate the quarterback situation there.

1442
01:18:39,439 --> 01:18:44,360
Speaker 2: So I actually like three guys in this range as well.

1443
01:18:44,640 --> 01:18:47,920
Speaker 2: And I'll talk about him because they actually tend to

1444
01:18:47,960 --> 01:18:50,360
Speaker 2: go very close to each other. That's right outside the

1445
01:18:50,360 --> 01:18:56,120
Speaker 2: top forty Stefan Diggs, Jayden Reid, and Matthew Golden of

1446
01:18:56,160 --> 01:18:59,880
Speaker 2: the Packers. So I think that Combo and Green Bay

1447
01:19:00,280 --> 01:19:02,880
Speaker 2: it's just buying the dip on you have a top

1448
01:19:02,920 --> 01:19:06,760
Speaker 2: five quarterback or a quarterback that was posting top five efficiency,

1449
01:19:07,080 --> 01:19:09,679
Speaker 2: you know, even though he was hurt and the team

1450
01:19:09,760 --> 01:19:13,000
Speaker 2: started going super run heavy because they could, and they

1451
01:19:13,040 --> 01:19:14,040
Speaker 2: were still winning games.

1452
01:19:14,560 --> 01:19:16,720
Speaker 1: And now everyone just thinks.

1453
01:19:16,439 --> 01:19:19,679
Speaker 2: That or it's just we're getting value on that entire

1454
01:19:19,800 --> 01:19:23,599
Speaker 2: pack or pass offense because of it. So even though

1455
01:19:23,640 --> 01:19:27,000
Speaker 2: Reid needed his agent to kind of say, yeah, you know,

1456
01:19:27,080 --> 01:19:29,320
Speaker 2: he's our number one, he's still the number one. I

1457
01:19:29,320 --> 01:19:31,280
Speaker 2: meant the average and four and a half targets per game,

1458
01:19:31,360 --> 01:19:35,479
Speaker 2: doesn't play in three wide sets, but he's still proven

1459
01:19:35,600 --> 01:19:40,720
Speaker 2: that he can post numbers well above his playing time.

1460
01:19:41,080 --> 01:19:44,760
Speaker 2: And I think Golden helps unlock that because the main

1461
01:19:44,800 --> 01:19:48,960
Speaker 2: thing with Green Bay is volume, and I think that

1462
01:19:49,120 --> 01:19:54,639
Speaker 2: Reid and Read benefits because he gets the remake gets

1463
01:19:54,640 --> 01:19:59,080
Speaker 2: more volume, and Golden benefits because outside of Reid, I

1464
01:19:59,120 --> 01:20:02,840
Speaker 2: don't really think they like anybody in their receiving corps like,

1465
01:20:02,920 --> 01:20:06,400
Speaker 2: I mean, you got Melton changing positions. Dobbs and Wicks

1466
01:20:06,439 --> 01:20:10,200
Speaker 2: both at different times had blowouts that didn't blow ups

1467
01:20:10,200 --> 01:20:14,160
Speaker 2: that didn't represent what you know, what they're actually have accomplished,

1468
01:20:14,160 --> 01:20:16,320
Speaker 2: I mean, which is not much of anything, but they were,

1469
01:20:16,760 --> 01:20:18,559
Speaker 2: you know, making a lot of noise about playing time

1470
01:20:18,600 --> 01:20:22,559
Speaker 2: at different points. So I just think that Golden should

1471
01:20:22,600 --> 01:20:25,639
Speaker 2: be the number one receiver in terms of routes front

1472
01:20:25,680 --> 01:20:27,760
Speaker 2: on dream Bay as soon as this year. If you

1473
01:20:27,800 --> 01:20:30,639
Speaker 2: really look at what they did with Wis when everyone

1474
01:20:30,720 --> 01:20:34,240
Speaker 2: was healthy, Wicks was essentially molieth in terms of playing time.

1475
01:20:34,360 --> 01:20:36,040
Speaker 1: So I think gold is gonna be there.

1476
01:20:36,360 --> 01:20:39,880
Speaker 2: And at this point everyone the market's already priced in

1477
01:20:40,000 --> 01:20:42,880
Speaker 2: that read isn't going to play in three wide sets,

1478
01:20:42,960 --> 01:20:47,520
Speaker 2: so any any more pass volume for green Bay beyond expectation,

1479
01:20:48,040 --> 01:20:49,840
Speaker 2: or if he does end up playing more in two

1480
01:20:49,880 --> 01:20:54,240
Speaker 2: wide sets, then it's just all gravy at that price.

1481
01:20:54,320 --> 01:20:57,200
Speaker 2: So I think there it's a rare situation where I

1482
01:20:57,280 --> 01:21:00,120
Speaker 2: definitely want stacks of those guys with with love, and

1483
01:21:00,160 --> 01:21:02,400
Speaker 2: that's a perfect example of you know, guys who can

1484
01:21:02,439 --> 01:21:05,920
Speaker 2: get weight and still make it work. But uh, Digs,

1485
01:21:05,960 --> 01:21:08,000
Speaker 2: I just think people are sleeping on him.

1486
01:21:08,400 --> 01:21:11,120
Speaker 1: Coming off an injury, keeps changing teams.

1487
01:21:11,600 --> 01:21:15,840
Speaker 2: But if you're the Patriots, you paid this guy, you're

1488
01:21:15,880 --> 01:21:18,920
Speaker 2: gonna use him. And Josh McDaniels, I mean, we're seeing

1489
01:21:18,920 --> 01:21:21,720
Speaker 2: it with Devonte Adams. He's fine with, you know, drawing

1490
01:21:21,800 --> 01:21:23,560
Speaker 2: up place to just kind of force few guys. And

1491
01:21:23,880 --> 01:21:27,320
Speaker 2: Drake May very good quarterback, very terrible supporting cast last year.

1492
01:21:27,360 --> 01:21:29,439
Speaker 2: So I think he's also the type of quarterback that

1493
01:21:29,680 --> 01:21:31,759
Speaker 2: if he gets a receiver like Diggs on the field,

1494
01:21:32,200 --> 01:21:34,800
Speaker 2: he could give him target thirty percent of the time.

1495
01:21:35,720 --> 01:21:38,600
Speaker 2: If Diggs holds up, he holds up, it's you know,

1496
01:21:38,680 --> 01:21:40,439
Speaker 2: it's it's It's one of those things where it's still

1497
01:21:40,439 --> 01:21:41,160
Speaker 2: mostly gonna.

1498
01:21:40,960 --> 01:21:42,000
Speaker 1: Come down to randomness.

1499
01:21:42,160 --> 01:21:47,400
Speaker 2: If he's if he's gonna be definitely definitely compromised for

1500
01:21:47,680 --> 01:21:49,760
Speaker 2: like a long period of time. I would I would

1501
01:21:49,880 --> 01:21:52,200
Speaker 2: change it up with Diggs, but I think I think

1502
01:21:52,240 --> 01:21:54,320
Speaker 2: the market is way too well on him, just considering

1503
01:21:54,400 --> 01:21:58,320
Speaker 2: he could be a monster target hoggen in this offense.

1504
01:21:58,479 --> 01:22:00,720
Speaker 2: And uh and they paid a lot of mone so

1505
01:22:01,439 --> 01:22:02,879
Speaker 2: love I love those three guys.

1506
01:22:03,200 --> 01:22:06,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, he he was clear to practice today. First of all,

1507
01:22:06,640 --> 01:22:09,639
Speaker 3: he avoid the pup list heading into training camp, which

1508
01:22:09,680 --> 01:22:12,679
Speaker 3: is huge for you know, his ACL recovery and being

1509
01:22:13,280 --> 01:22:16,240
Speaker 3: one hundred percent by week one and so far so good.

1510
01:22:16,280 --> 01:22:19,799
Speaker 3: He avoided the pup list and he's cleared for practice already,

1511
01:22:19,880 --> 01:22:24,080
Speaker 3: So very positive news to day on Diggs and just

1512
01:22:24,120 --> 01:22:27,439
Speaker 3: his ACL recovery and just being ready for week one.

1513
01:22:27,760 --> 01:22:29,760
Speaker 2: I mean, you know much, you gotta have a lot

1514
01:22:29,760 --> 01:22:33,040
Speaker 2: of energy to be fucking Cardi B and taking tousy.

1515
01:22:33,240 --> 01:22:35,880
Speaker 2: I feel like I feel like he could do that

1516
01:22:35,960 --> 01:22:38,920
Speaker 2: in whatever month that was. He's he's probably gonna be

1517
01:22:38,920 --> 01:22:40,960
Speaker 2: good to go well, and he's not gonna play in

1518
01:22:41,000 --> 01:22:43,720
Speaker 2: the preseason, So you just gotta just navigate camp and

1519
01:22:43,720 --> 01:22:44,559
Speaker 2: not do more tousy.

1520
01:22:44,640 --> 01:22:47,439
Speaker 3: I guess, yeah, except maybe that helped his recovery. Who knows?

1521
01:22:47,720 --> 01:22:52,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, probably did. He probably did. Man ah man.

1522
01:22:53,040 --> 01:22:56,479
Speaker 2: All right, let's uh, hopefully we can recover from another

1523
01:22:56,520 --> 01:22:58,439
Speaker 2: one of these marathon pop recording sessions.

1524
01:22:58,479 --> 01:23:00,280
Speaker 1: Get out of here, but we gotta do tight ends first.

1525
01:23:00,320 --> 01:23:02,200
Speaker 1: We got to talk to people about.

1526
01:23:02,479 --> 01:23:05,360
Speaker 2: Who we like at tight end, A guy you already

1527
01:23:05,360 --> 01:23:08,479
Speaker 2: mentioned starts off here for best bow heading into twenty

1528
01:23:08,479 --> 01:23:08,920
Speaker 2: twenty five.

1529
01:23:08,960 --> 01:23:13,559
Speaker 3: Who you like? Yeah, So Colson Loveland, the rookie for

1530
01:23:13,600 --> 01:23:17,160
Speaker 3: the Bears. They took him tenth overall He's going around

1531
01:23:17,160 --> 01:23:19,519
Speaker 3: tight end twelve right now, and I'm ranking him tight

1532
01:23:19,640 --> 01:23:22,800
Speaker 3: end ten and just I think he has massive upside.

1533
01:23:24,120 --> 01:23:26,080
Speaker 3: I was high on him heading into the draft. My

1534
01:23:26,200 --> 01:23:28,400
Speaker 3: comp for him was actually Jimmy Graham. He reminds me

1535
01:23:28,439 --> 01:23:34,080
Speaker 3: of Jimmy Graham. And you know, the landing spot seemed

1536
01:23:34,200 --> 01:23:40,280
Speaker 3: tricky with Cole COMEDERI there, but I've not worried about

1537
01:23:40,280 --> 01:23:44,360
Speaker 3: that past month or two researching it. Not worried about

1538
01:23:44,360 --> 01:23:46,960
Speaker 3: that as much. I'm more excited about the fact that

1539
01:23:47,000 --> 01:23:51,320
Speaker 3: he's just landing and a Ben Johnson offense because Ben

1540
01:23:51,400 --> 01:23:56,439
Speaker 3: Johnson was instrumental in Samuel Porto's record breaking rookie season

1541
01:23:56,520 --> 01:23:59,519
Speaker 3: just two years ago, and Colson Lovelan is actually a

1542
01:23:59,560 --> 01:24:03,920
Speaker 3: better aspect than sam Laporta, so his his upside in

1543
01:24:03,920 --> 01:24:07,000
Speaker 3: this offense is just massive. And we've seen now back

1544
01:24:07,040 --> 01:24:10,519
Speaker 3: to back seasons with a rookie tight end finishing as

1545
01:24:10,560 --> 01:24:14,320
Speaker 3: the tight end one overall, so you know, Loveland he

1546
01:24:14,400 --> 01:24:17,040
Speaker 3: does have that kind of upside. He'd probably need DJ

1547
01:24:17,160 --> 01:24:19,840
Speaker 3: Moore and or Cole Comet to get hurt for that

1548
01:24:19,920 --> 01:24:23,200
Speaker 3: down lock, but I love investing in his upside and

1549
01:24:23,240 --> 01:24:26,759
Speaker 3: also just this offense in general of Caleb Williams potentially

1550
01:24:26,760 --> 01:24:29,400
Speaker 3: breaking out near two. I think Loveland, even though he's

1551
01:24:29,439 --> 01:24:32,839
Speaker 3: going at tight end twelve, could be offering enough upside

1552
01:24:33,439 --> 01:24:34,000
Speaker 3: to take there.

1553
01:24:34,960 --> 01:24:36,840
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I completely agree. I don't think he needs

1554
01:24:36,840 --> 01:24:39,639
Speaker 2: any injuries to anyone. I think Comet is just rock

1555
01:24:39,720 --> 01:24:45,840
Speaker 2: right and right. DJ Moore is a guy that can

1556
01:24:45,880 --> 01:24:48,240
Speaker 2: put up numbers when you're scheming it to him. But

1557
01:24:49,760 --> 01:24:55,080
Speaker 2: like Lovelind, is gonna win against his defensive matchup. I

1558
01:24:55,080 --> 01:24:58,240
Speaker 2: think more more than more will win against his. It's

1559
01:24:58,320 --> 01:25:02,160
Speaker 2: just he's Ben Jonson gonna continue to treat More the

1560
01:25:02,240 --> 01:25:06,599
Speaker 2: way all those other coordinators have, which if he probably does.

1561
01:25:06,920 --> 01:25:09,920
Speaker 2: But there is some downside with DJ more, especially with

1562
01:25:10,280 --> 01:25:13,800
Speaker 2: a rookie and a year two guy waiting in the wings,

1563
01:25:13,840 --> 01:25:16,719
Speaker 2: and then another rookie at tight end. So I think

1564
01:25:16,760 --> 01:25:19,840
Speaker 2: that I much rather bet on level because it's a

1565
01:25:19,840 --> 01:25:23,000
Speaker 2: confirmation bias league where you're you're drafting these guys early,

1566
01:25:24,360 --> 01:25:26,559
Speaker 2: even if all those other reasons to play them, like

1567
01:25:26,600 --> 01:25:29,920
Speaker 2: the contract, the rookie deals and the and and you know,

1568
01:25:29,960 --> 01:25:32,400
Speaker 2: it's it's more of a passing league, so you don't

1569
01:25:32,439 --> 01:25:34,479
Speaker 2: have to do as much as a blocker. But even

1570
01:25:34,479 --> 01:25:37,519
Speaker 2: if you take out those reasons it's just when you

1571
01:25:37,640 --> 01:25:40,160
Speaker 2: draft the guy that you're saying, I think he's good

1572
01:25:40,400 --> 01:25:42,640
Speaker 2: and so you're gonna show. I mean, look look at

1573
01:25:42,640 --> 01:25:45,120
Speaker 2: a guy like Xavier Worthy. I mean, it really takes

1574
01:25:45,160 --> 01:25:46,840
Speaker 2: a lot these days for some of these rookies not

1575
01:25:46,880 --> 01:25:49,320
Speaker 2: the hit. And that's why I'm a I'm a lot

1576
01:25:49,400 --> 01:25:51,880
Speaker 2: less bullsh on some of the guys to break out

1577
01:25:51,920 --> 01:25:54,200
Speaker 2: year two that get in in your one, because I

1578
01:25:54,200 --> 01:25:56,519
Speaker 2: think there's if you look at like the longer aging

1579
01:25:56,560 --> 01:25:58,559
Speaker 2: curve data, there's a lot of noise in there because

1580
01:25:58,600 --> 01:26:01,040
Speaker 2: the NFL is just such a different league than it

1581
01:26:01,120 --> 01:26:02,720
Speaker 2: is right now where I think it's a lot more

1582
01:26:02,720 --> 01:26:05,400
Speaker 2: concerning if a rookie doesn't break out, and I think

1583
01:26:05,400 --> 01:26:08,400
Speaker 2: it's a lot more promising when players are just drafted

1584
01:26:08,439 --> 01:26:11,000
Speaker 2: into good spots as rookies, Like I think coach in

1585
01:26:11,040 --> 01:26:16,280
Speaker 2: Love one has tight end three overall outside, I think

1586
01:26:16,320 --> 01:26:19,360
Speaker 2: it's top three upside, especially when you look at the

1587
01:26:19,360 --> 01:26:22,080
Speaker 2: the shit show of the top ten after you get

1588
01:26:22,120 --> 01:26:24,959
Speaker 2: passed the first couple, I mean there's some massive downside

1589
01:26:25,000 --> 01:26:30,720
Speaker 2: there as well. Guy like a couple of guys I like,

1590
01:26:30,840 --> 01:26:33,160
Speaker 2: I'll just kind of name both of them here, but

1591
01:26:34,080 --> 01:26:37,640
Speaker 2: the first is Dallas Goddard. I just think Philadelphia is

1592
01:26:37,680 --> 01:26:41,559
Speaker 2: going to pass more. They just had the lowest pass

1593
01:26:41,640 --> 01:26:43,920
Speaker 2: volume they could have with all the game script and

1594
01:26:43,960 --> 01:26:48,840
Speaker 2: the bark we long runs. So it doesn't take much

1595
01:26:48,920 --> 01:26:52,360
Speaker 2: to go from tight end fourteen to tight end five.

1596
01:26:52,720 --> 01:26:58,559
Speaker 2: And Goddard had some dominant showings last year when other

1597
01:26:58,600 --> 01:27:01,200
Speaker 2: guys are out for Philadelphia, which could also happen.

1598
01:27:01,280 --> 01:27:03,439
Speaker 1: So I think Goddard is in a good spot.

1599
01:27:03,479 --> 01:27:04,960
Speaker 2: We just kind of we didn't even know what was

1600
01:27:05,000 --> 01:27:06,760
Speaker 2: gonna happen with him, and so he's just kind of

1601
01:27:06,760 --> 01:27:07,679
Speaker 2: flying under the radar.

1602
01:27:08,000 --> 01:27:12,040
Speaker 1: Not really exciting. But zach Hertz wasn't exciting last year either.

1603
01:27:12,120 --> 01:27:17,080
Speaker 2: These guys just they don't die man, and I think

1604
01:27:17,200 --> 01:27:20,120
Speaker 2: guys like Ingram and even Hockinson Chelsea like there's a

1605
01:27:20,160 --> 01:27:22,439
Speaker 2: lot of Andrews, a lot of floor guys there that

1606
01:27:22,920 --> 01:27:25,000
Speaker 2: somebody's got to occupy those spots if they do hit

1607
01:27:25,000 --> 01:27:28,960
Speaker 2: their their floors, so like him and then another guy's

1608
01:27:29,000 --> 01:27:34,000
Speaker 2: This just kind of recently became a development is with

1609
01:27:34,160 --> 01:27:37,280
Speaker 2: the Seahawks dropping Fan. I think that makes a royo

1610
01:27:37,520 --> 01:27:40,720
Speaker 2: rookie a lot more interesting because he's the guy that

1611
01:27:40,760 --> 01:27:44,360
Speaker 2: has some juice and just a the fact that they

1612
01:27:44,400 --> 01:27:49,799
Speaker 2: are essentially clearing space for him to play more in.

1613
01:27:51,280 --> 01:27:52,080
Speaker 1: Before August.

1614
01:27:52,560 --> 01:27:55,639
Speaker 2: I think is a massive positive development because Cooper Cup

1615
01:27:56,439 --> 01:27:58,599
Speaker 2: could not be man covered and he couldn't be zone

1616
01:27:58,640 --> 01:28:00,760
Speaker 2: coverage he though last year, so there is a chance

1617
01:28:00,800 --> 01:28:04,519
Speaker 2: that he's just not a nothing burger on this team.

1618
01:28:04,600 --> 01:28:08,599
Speaker 2: And and Arroyo is essentially as high as their number

1619
01:28:08,680 --> 01:28:12,439
Speaker 2: two most valuable fantasy threats. So I think that's the

1620
01:28:12,520 --> 01:28:15,759
Speaker 2: kind of sexy pick, whereas Darth Throw and then God

1621
01:28:15,840 --> 01:28:18,639
Speaker 2: is like the boring safe pick who ended up ends

1622
01:28:18,680 --> 01:28:20,519
Speaker 2: up being his ADP a lot more than I think

1623
01:28:21,200 --> 01:28:22,559
Speaker 2: people are giving him credit for.

1624
01:28:23,560 --> 01:28:26,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love the Arroyo call. You're gonna hate my

1625
01:28:26,160 --> 01:28:29,439
Speaker 3: comp for him before the draft, it was Greg Dulcic,

1626
01:28:29,800 --> 01:28:34,200
Speaker 3: so hopefully we get good Greg Dulcic before Sean Payton

1627
01:28:34,920 --> 01:28:39,720
Speaker 3: ruined him. But yeah, I love Arroyo's upside, and that

1628
01:28:40,479 --> 01:28:43,840
Speaker 3: move means that I guess they're comfortable with him and

1629
01:28:44,200 --> 01:28:46,840
Speaker 3: maybe you know, a J. Barner but might be more

1630
01:28:46,840 --> 01:28:50,760
Speaker 3: of a blocker. But yeah, Royo, his stock went way

1631
01:28:50,880 --> 01:28:53,920
Speaker 3: up after that move. And I think you called it

1632
01:28:54,000 --> 01:28:57,799
Speaker 3: but breaking news. This happened like while we were recording,

1633
01:28:57,840 --> 01:29:02,040
Speaker 3: But Darren Waller was placed on the Puplin, so cash

1634
01:29:02,080 --> 01:29:02,880
Speaker 3: and all your bets.

1635
01:29:03,000 --> 01:29:08,840
Speaker 2: But what was I think he was like he was

1636
01:29:08,840 --> 01:29:10,840
Speaker 2: going to retire or never play a snap for them.

1637
01:29:11,000 --> 01:29:14,799
Speaker 1: It was like just as like, yeah, he's still still.

1638
01:29:14,600 --> 01:29:16,599
Speaker 3: Why for that nose out there?

1639
01:29:16,880 --> 01:29:23,480
Speaker 2: So no fans, he's low key again, it's a confirmation

1640
01:29:23,640 --> 01:29:28,040
Speaker 2: by his league at some point everyone it went from.

1641
01:29:28,000 --> 01:29:31,000
Speaker 1: No fan is a what was her first round pick?

1642
01:29:31,600 --> 01:29:33,120
Speaker 1: Yeah he was an early round pick.

1643
01:29:34,720 --> 01:29:40,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, yeah, day two pick to no offan cannot score,

1644
01:29:40,840 --> 01:29:43,519
Speaker 2: like you can't be a touchdown a tight end and

1645
01:29:43,640 --> 01:29:47,400
Speaker 2: just never score touchdowns. I mean we would always joke

1646
01:29:47,439 --> 01:29:52,519
Speaker 2: about how he's just still touchdown Listen, did he ever stop?

1647
01:29:53,479 --> 01:29:53,559
Speaker 1: No?

1648
01:29:53,680 --> 01:29:56,080
Speaker 3: He hit one? Remember I had him six to one.

1649
01:29:56,240 --> 01:30:00,160
Speaker 3: I doubled, I double down. A week later, I said,

1650
01:30:00,200 --> 01:30:01,679
Speaker 3: I know he's gonna score this week, so I'm gonna

1651
01:30:01,680 --> 01:30:03,840
Speaker 3: do it again. And he did score. But yeah, it

1652
01:30:03,920 --> 01:30:05,840
Speaker 3: wasn't until like the end of the season and I

1653
01:30:05,840 --> 01:30:06,960
Speaker 3: think he finished with the one.

1654
01:30:08,680 --> 01:30:09,719
Speaker 1: Yep. And now he's gone.

1655
01:30:09,760 --> 01:30:15,400
Speaker 2: So uh and Cooper Cup, I mean, man, he might

1656
01:30:15,400 --> 01:30:17,519
Speaker 2: have been the guy that I mean deserved to be

1657
01:30:17,680 --> 01:30:18,519
Speaker 2: gone just as much.

1658
01:30:18,560 --> 01:30:19,479
Speaker 1: So I could see it.

1659
01:30:19,560 --> 01:30:22,840
Speaker 2: I could see a disastrous situation where you just got

1660
01:30:23,400 --> 01:30:27,920
Speaker 2: Royo and JSN and it's it's mill Road just kind

1661
01:30:27,920 --> 01:30:30,519
Speaker 2: of checking it every which way and trying to figure

1662
01:30:30,520 --> 01:30:32,519
Speaker 2: it out, and it somehow works for fantasy.

1663
01:30:32,560 --> 01:30:35,439
Speaker 1: But we already saw it with Sam Donald. It could

1664
01:30:35,439 --> 01:30:36,960
Speaker 1: still work. So yeah, love it, love it.

1665
01:30:38,240 --> 01:30:40,240
Speaker 2: Who before we get out of here, you got one

1666
01:30:40,240 --> 01:30:42,679
Speaker 2: more guy? I think, fine him every year and it's

1667
01:30:42,720 --> 01:30:43,400
Speaker 2: been working out.

1668
01:30:43,680 --> 01:30:48,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, Isaiah likely and he has really developed into this rare,

1669
01:30:49,320 --> 01:30:52,880
Speaker 3: anti fragile type tight end. Like let's go with Dave

1670
01:30:52,960 --> 01:30:56,320
Speaker 3: Montgomery the past couple seasons. Where are you gonna get it?

1671
01:30:57,120 --> 01:31:00,679
Speaker 3: He's gonna prove it's an excellent comp if I say

1672
01:31:00,680 --> 01:31:01,360
Speaker 3: so myself.

1673
01:31:01,479 --> 01:31:03,120
Speaker 1: I mean no. But like he's in a different part

1674
01:31:03,160 --> 01:31:03,679
Speaker 1: of his career.

1675
01:31:03,760 --> 01:31:08,439
Speaker 3: I think, well, yeah, he's trending, he's trending up. But

1676
01:31:09,200 --> 01:31:12,320
Speaker 3: he has managed to carve out a role as technically

1677
01:31:12,400 --> 01:31:17,040
Speaker 3: the number two tight end to provide borderline tight end

1678
01:31:17,360 --> 01:31:22,799
Speaker 3: one value even if Mark Andrews is healthy, which happened

1679
01:31:22,840 --> 01:31:27,080
Speaker 3: last Mark Andrews played all seventeen games last year, didn't

1680
01:31:27,080 --> 01:31:29,080
Speaker 3: miss any time due to Andrew There were a couple

1681
01:31:29,120 --> 01:31:31,720
Speaker 3: of goose eggs, but that was just you know, he

1682
01:31:31,760 --> 01:31:36,560
Speaker 3: didn't get targeted, but Likely still managed to rank sixteenth

1683
01:31:36,600 --> 01:31:40,439
Speaker 3: and best ball points out of per game because just

1684
01:31:40,640 --> 01:31:42,840
Speaker 3: like I said, he was able to carve out a

1685
01:31:42,880 --> 01:31:46,440
Speaker 3: big enough role when Andrews is healthy were they're essentially

1686
01:31:46,760 --> 01:31:52,400
Speaker 3: splitting time in terms of routes run rates, So you know,

1687
01:31:52,520 --> 01:31:55,760
Speaker 3: he worked up to you know, be like the number

1688
01:31:55,760 --> 01:32:00,280
Speaker 3: three targeting offense even when Andrews is healthy. However, if

1689
01:32:00,320 --> 01:32:02,439
Speaker 3: Andrews were to miss time, I mean, he would offer

1690
01:32:02,520 --> 01:32:07,600
Speaker 3: top five upside. So the fact that Likely's ADP is

1691
01:32:07,640 --> 01:32:11,160
Speaker 3: in that tight end fifteen range means he might be

1692
01:32:11,240 --> 01:32:14,519
Speaker 3: able to return value even if Andrews stays healthy all

1693
01:32:14,520 --> 01:32:18,040
Speaker 3: seventeen games. Again, but he has that built in massive

1694
01:32:18,120 --> 01:32:21,720
Speaker 3: upside where he could become a top five tight end

1695
01:32:21,720 --> 01:32:24,320
Speaker 3: if Andrews missed his time. So it's you don't really

1696
01:32:24,320 --> 01:32:28,280
Speaker 3: see that at tight end, but he has developed into

1697
01:32:28,320 --> 01:32:32,320
Speaker 3: that type of anti fragile player. So I love taking

1698
01:32:32,400 --> 01:32:35,479
Speaker 3: him in spots in that you know, tight end fifteen

1699
01:32:35,560 --> 01:32:39,680
Speaker 3: range just given his upside, and again he's provided a

1700
01:32:39,800 --> 01:32:42,519
Speaker 3: fairly high floor for being technically the backup tight.

1701
01:32:42,479 --> 01:32:45,439
Speaker 2: End yep, because you got to kind of treat him

1702
01:32:45,520 --> 01:32:53,439
Speaker 2: like the number three receiver because DeAndre Hopkins it's just

1703
01:32:53,479 --> 01:32:57,040
Speaker 2: the latest ohel Beckham of Nelson Aguilar's right.

1704
01:32:57,720 --> 01:33:02,320
Speaker 3: Wow that yeah, but it's true.

1705
01:33:02,920 --> 01:33:05,080
Speaker 2: Talk about a guy who might I mean, he's gonna

1706
01:33:05,080 --> 01:33:09,120
Speaker 2: make the roster, but very specific role just between between

1707
01:33:09,240 --> 01:33:13,360
Speaker 2: Hopkins and Cooper and Deontae Last year, it just it

1708
01:33:13,439 --> 01:33:17,559
Speaker 2: got so exhausting watching these these formerly like decent players

1709
01:33:17,600 --> 01:33:19,519
Speaker 2: just not not have it.

1710
01:33:19,640 --> 01:33:19,800
Speaker 3: Man.

1711
01:33:19,960 --> 01:33:22,720
Speaker 2: So I think Likely is kind of locked in is

1712
01:33:23,200 --> 01:33:26,639
Speaker 2: as that number three receiver, and you know, to your point,

1713
01:33:26,840 --> 01:33:30,400
Speaker 2: it seemed like they were more willing than ever to

1714
01:33:30,439 --> 01:33:32,880
Speaker 2: take Andrews off the field or use him as a blockers.

1715
01:33:32,960 --> 01:33:35,240
Speaker 1: I don't know what that was about, but the.

1716
01:33:35,200 --> 01:33:37,360
Speaker 2: Fact that he's getting older probably doesn't It doesn't bode

1717
01:33:37,760 --> 01:33:41,640
Speaker 2: well for him necessarily versus a guy like Likely who's

1718
01:33:41,680 --> 01:33:44,439
Speaker 2: still on the on the ascent. So yeah, I think

1719
01:33:45,400 --> 01:33:47,200
Speaker 2: Likely is one of those guys who could could be

1720
01:33:47,240 --> 01:33:50,000
Speaker 2: a league winner, even though in a way it seems

1721
01:33:50,000 --> 01:33:53,000
Speaker 2: like he's overvalued to some people because he's he is

1722
01:33:53,400 --> 01:33:56,040
Speaker 2: going that high as as a backup tight end, but

1723
01:33:56,040 --> 01:33:57,960
Speaker 2: he's not very back up to end the same way

1724
01:33:58,479 --> 01:34:03,880
Speaker 2: that myself and you know, people undervalued Bowers a little

1725
01:34:03,880 --> 01:34:07,320
Speaker 2: bit if they were concerned about Michael Bayer, but Bowers

1726
01:34:07,320 --> 01:34:10,280
Speaker 2: was essentially a slot receiver, like it didn't even if

1727
01:34:10,320 --> 01:34:13,600
Speaker 2: Mayor was a factor, I don't think it would have

1728
01:34:13,640 --> 01:34:18,559
Speaker 2: really changed anything. It's just it's a completely different setup

1729
01:34:18,640 --> 01:34:19,719
Speaker 2: in the week these days.

1730
01:34:19,720 --> 01:34:21,479
Speaker 1: So yeah, like likely.

1731
01:34:22,439 --> 01:34:25,760
Speaker 2: Let's ended on that note, Dad is going to do

1732
01:34:25,800 --> 01:34:30,040
Speaker 2: it for our twenty twenty five Best Ball Strategy episode

1733
01:34:30,080 --> 01:34:35,160
Speaker 2: here on the Fantasy Flex presented by Yahoo Fantasy. We'll

1734
01:34:35,160 --> 01:34:38,120
Speaker 2: be back with more content next week as we get

1735
01:34:38,160 --> 01:34:41,479
Speaker 2: closer and closer to the regular season. To make sure

1736
01:34:41,560 --> 01:34:45,640
Speaker 2: to subscribe to the podcast so you don't miss an episode,

1737
01:34:45,920 --> 01:34:48,040
Speaker 2: and of course don't get to check out the all

1738
01:34:48,040 --> 01:34:53,360
Speaker 2: new Fantasy Lebs app. If you like accurate projections like

1739
01:34:53,600 --> 01:34:57,880
Speaker 2: accurate rankings, cheat sheets customized to your league, be sure

1740
01:34:58,360 --> 01:35:01,680
Speaker 2: to go and down that Fantasy Labs app right now.

1741
01:35:01,720 --> 01:35:04,719
Speaker 2: You can save twenty dollars on a season long NFL

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01:35:04,800 --> 01:35:09,840
Speaker 2: sub by downloading the Fantasy Labs app right now and

1743
01:35:09,960 --> 01:35:13,679
Speaker 2: purchasing the NFL subscription. You can find Sean on next

1744
01:35:13,720 --> 01:35:17,000
Speaker 2: at the Underscore Odds Maker. I'm at Chris Raymond. We're

1745
01:35:17,000 --> 01:35:19,320
Speaker 2: at those same hands on a free award winning Action

1746
01:35:19,920 --> 01:35:23,960
Speaker 2: network app. Thanks for tuning in to the Fantasy Flex

1747
01:35:24,000 --> 01:35:28,400
Speaker 2: Podcast sponsored by ya Who Fantasy. Yahoo Fantasy is celebrating

1748
01:35:28,520 --> 01:35:32,280
Speaker 2: twenty eight years of fantasy greatness.

1749
01:35:32,560 --> 01:35:34,960
Speaker 1: Till the next time We'll get this. Money.

1750
01:35:42,880 --> 01:35:47,400
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler