Speaker 1: Take it Down Man, No Down.
Speaker 2: Man Friday at the first twenty twenty three. It is
Speaker 2: the Beating the Book podcast and the FL Betting Preview
Speaker 2: live from the d Our New Hope. We just did
Speaker 2: our last show. By the way, Kelly Bidlin to my
Speaker 2: right here at the d at Bar, Canada. Matt Brown
Speaker 2: joining us VSA's own Matt Brown. It's the Primetime Action Crew.
Speaker 2: The band is back together for an NFL preview.
Speaker 1: Reunited and it feels so good.
Speaker 2: Name the group, No idea, Come on, no idea, it's
Speaker 2: a duo. I don't know.
Speaker 3: Matt mac got angry at me the other day for
Speaker 3: another song reference Peaches a Herb.
Speaker 1: Sure, Peaches a Herb are two people.
Speaker 2: Peaches is the girl Herbs the guy.
Speaker 4: Quite quite possibly the worst rendition of that song I've
Speaker 4: ever heard, and I've heard some really bad one.
Speaker 1: Well, all right, Well, off with the bang here Gil.
Speaker 2: The tennis pods and the baseball pods are things that
Speaker 2: we do during the off season, but it's all about
Speaker 2: the NFL. The megapod will begin this coming Thursday, which
Speaker 2: I do with Todd Wish, Deem, Jeff Pearls and rotating guests.
Speaker 2: Matt has been kind enough to come on that show.
Speaker 2: We'll have to get Kelly on that show this year
Speaker 2: as well. And then Guessing Lines our tenth season with
Speaker 2: Chrissy begins the following Monday for week number two. That's
Speaker 2: the standard football podcast schedule here beating the book, but
Speaker 2: NFL prev before that from the d with these two gentlemen.
Speaker 2: Thanks for doing this, guys, I appreciate it very much.
Speaker 2: It's a Friday morning and it's raining outside. What better
Speaker 2: thing to do than talk football? Can you think of
Speaker 2: anything that's right?
Speaker 1: I cannot not pickleball in the rain, that's for sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just don't find it interesting. I know you
Speaker 2: love pickleball. You're still playing as much as you used to?
Speaker 2: Are you still? Are you still?
Speaker 1: I'm not?
Speaker 2: Okay?
Speaker 4: So I'm trying to get good at the golf. I'm
Speaker 4: trying to get good at the golf. So that takes
Speaker 4: a lot of time, by the.
Speaker 2: Way, a lot before we get into football. We may
Speaker 2: have broker to deal. I just want to suggest this
Speaker 2: for everybody who listens to Primetime Action in the past
Speaker 2: and know that people that know that Matt Brown has
Speaker 2: not kicked to this field goal or this field goal,
Speaker 2: two field goals, two field goals that he was supposed
Speaker 2: to do two years ago and still hasn't done it
Speaker 2: as a result of a bed at least two years ago. Matt,
Speaker 2: what is the deal you are brokering with Kelly?
Speaker 4: This is now all on Kelly's plate. This is all
Speaker 4: we have to do. I will go and I will
Speaker 4: do the kicks. But in return, all I need is
Speaker 4: for our friend, the bearded one, Kelly Bidlin, to agree
Speaker 4: to go get spray fan. I just I wanted to
Speaker 4: get spray tanned. I want to he looks like spray tann. Okay,
Speaker 4: and we're going to get these kicks out.
Speaker 1: Of the way.
Speaker 2: And the kicks, just for those who don't know, are
Speaker 2: what did you agree to do?
Speaker 1: Five?
Speaker 4: I have five opportunities to make a forty yarder right footed,
Speaker 4: and I have three opportunities to make a twenty one
Speaker 4: yarder left footing.
Speaker 2: Okay, you're crazy, first of all. And two this came
Speaker 2: up because we were watching college football while Primetime Action
Speaker 2: was on and somebody missed an easy kick and Matt's like,
Speaker 2: I can do that, and you were like, and you
Speaker 2: called him on that?
Speaker 1: Yes, no, no, no, they passed on the kick.
Speaker 4: Remember because their kicker got hurt, oh right, and they
Speaker 4: passed on They passed on go on kicking the field
Speaker 4: goal a twenty one yarder and instead decided to go
Speaker 4: for it on like fourth and fourteen or something. And
Speaker 4: I'm like, cand the punter really not make a twenty
Speaker 4: one yard field and that's what it was, and that's yeah,
Speaker 4: And then that's how it all came came to me.
Speaker 2: And here we are two years later, we seven see
Speaker 2: a kick.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I have some conditions for this skill. I
Speaker 1: have some conditions.
Speaker 3: I won an odds boost on my no on the
Speaker 3: twenty one and a half yard or with the left foot,
Speaker 3: because there's no way that's getting home. And I know
Speaker 3: all the action has been on the nose so far
Speaker 3: of this, so I want an odds boost on that.
Speaker 3: And then Matt better be accompanying me to whatever taming
Speaker 3: salon or whatever that we're going to, because I've never
Speaker 3: been to one in my life.
Speaker 4: I'll be in the booth with you, buddy. Yeah, I'll
Speaker 4: be in the booth with you. Don't don't worry about that.
Speaker 4: I'll be in there with you.
Speaker 3: This took a turn, and then we need a camera obviously,
Speaker 3: so so Isaiah's bringing a camera and Mike.
Speaker 1: So that's what's going to happen, all right, So that's
Speaker 1: the way NFL.
Speaker 2: That's where that stands. We are six days away from
Speaker 2: the beginning of the NFL season, finally, finally the Lions
Speaker 2: of the Chiefs first Thursday night football game, and I debated, like, Okay,
Speaker 2: how do I want to start a NFL betting preview
Speaker 2: this close to the season. Let's start with a question
Speaker 2: that I've asked. Kelly knows this on a numbers game
Speaker 2: more often than than not with every guest, which is
Speaker 2: and Matt will start with you, what is your most
Speaker 2: off market, off consensus viewpoint of this season backed by
Speaker 2: a bet.
Speaker 4: I mean, I guess that it's kind of sort of
Speaker 4: at least adjacent to all of this. Mine is that
Speaker 4: I think the forty nine ers have a real chance
Speaker 4: to be like mediocre this season, and I'm kind of
Speaker 4: backed that up just by a Seahawks future.
Speaker 2: I have.
Speaker 4: I have a Seahawks to win that division. I have
Speaker 4: a Pete Carroll to win Coach of the Year. I
Speaker 4: have different things like that. I mean, for me, I
Speaker 4: understand it is a loaded roster on both sides, of all,
Speaker 4: I do get all of that, but it is still
Speaker 4: the most important position in all of the NFL, and
Speaker 4: that's the quarterback position. And I don't have a ton
Speaker 4: of confidence that Brock Party is going to be able
Speaker 4: to replicate what we saw last year. I mean, this
Speaker 4: is a guy that wasn't even supposed to.
Speaker 1: Be on the team.
Speaker 4: Really, I mean, like when you're drafted that like, you're
Speaker 4: not even supposed to be on the team. You're not
Speaker 4: supposed to make the roster, You're supposed to be on
Speaker 4: the practice squad. So teams didn't have any game plan
Speaker 4: for this dude. They didn't have any tape on this guy.
Speaker 4: They were not familiar in the least bit with Brock Party.
Speaker 4: And I guarantee you as we head into this season,
Speaker 4: they're very familiar with brock Party now in any tendencies
Speaker 4: that he may have shown in college or anything that
Speaker 4: he was doing during last season that was working, that
Speaker 4: that has been figured out at this point. And so
Speaker 4: I am a bit skeptical that brock Party is going
Speaker 4: to be able to replicate what we saw last year,
Speaker 4: And in turn, I think that that could have this
Speaker 4: team being far, like far far under expectation.
Speaker 1: And with that, I'm back in the Seahawks in that division.
Speaker 3: So Matt, real quick, does that mean you don't do
Speaker 3: you think they should have.
Speaker 1: Dealt Trey Lance?
Speaker 4: I actually thought they didn't have a good option in general, right,
Speaker 4: I mean, like I don't think. I mean, I think
Speaker 4: it's just a bad kind of trio and they went
Speaker 4: with what they feel is.
Speaker 1: You know, you go with what's most comfortable, right.
Speaker 4: The guy came in and he played decent last season,
Speaker 4: so they're gonna go with with what worked for him.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean it's a for me.
Speaker 4: I like, I really like what Seattle brings to the
Speaker 4: table anyway. And then couple that with the fact that
Speaker 4: I think that the forty nine ers would be down
Speaker 4: a little bit. So I think that's the most controversial decision,
Speaker 4: especially considering the Niners are what third or fourth when
Speaker 4: it comes to to Super Bowl odds?
Speaker 2: Sure, what did you get the Seahawks to win the
Speaker 2: division at one number?
Speaker 1: Yeah? So it's like, way way early.
Speaker 4: I was talking to Kelly about this like a couple
Speaker 4: of weeks ago, So I mean I got an absurd
Speaker 4: number like four seventy five or something like that, But
Speaker 4: it was like, right, when they first opened and all that. So,
Speaker 4: I mean at the current number, I don't know if
Speaker 4: I would be loving it as much because I think
Speaker 4: it's down to like one ninety now or something one
Speaker 4: ninety five than that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not so off market now. I the one thing,
Speaker 2: and I no one loved the Niners more than I
Speaker 2: did last year. I backed it up with bets and
Speaker 2: obviously the uh, the the actual you know disaster that
Speaker 2: was the playoff game where Perdy got hurt and that
Speaker 2: Josh Johnson got hurt. I will say this, even even
Speaker 2: through his undefeat, did stretch seven and zero down the
Speaker 2: stretch with brock Purty mystery relevant. He threw so many
Speaker 2: passes that should have been picked. We Todd Wisham and
Speaker 2: I call it, you know, the football equivalent. It's just
Speaker 2: a babit. Oh yeah, we call what interceptions that should
Speaker 2: have happened. I think Pro Football Focus backs this up
Speaker 2: with actual numbers that he threw. Yes, is that right, Matt, Yes,
Speaker 2: turnover worthy plays, turnover worthy place itch, Yeah, interceptions that
Speaker 2: should have happened. So and we'll see, we'll see.
Speaker 3: That Seahawks number by real quick has swung back up
Speaker 3: it and is plus two thirty over a draft over
Speaker 3: at Draftking, so maybe a little bit more back into
Speaker 3: beedible ranger.
Speaker 2: People before before he gets a Kelly's answer to this
Speaker 2: question how many teams? Because because it then calls to mind, okay,
Speaker 2: how many good teams are there actually in the NFC,
Speaker 2: which will be a theme of this, which is obviously
Speaker 2: the Eagles, Niners, Cowboys. I guess in some order, if
Speaker 2: I if I took away those three teams, who's the
Speaker 2: next best team in the NFC? I guess you would
Speaker 2: say the Seahawks.
Speaker 4: Then I would say the Seahawks. But then after the Seahawks,
Speaker 4: I think if there's a precipitous drop off like at
Speaker 4: that point, like it wouldn't surprise me at all. If
Speaker 4: and I'm being serious and I'm even including the Bucks
Speaker 4: in this conversation, like it wouldn't be surprised me if
Speaker 4: any of the four teams won the NFC South, right,
Speaker 4: like at all?
Speaker 1: That Like that wouldn't surprise me at all. If you
Speaker 1: look in the East.
Speaker 4: If you told me that the Giants under day ball
Speaker 4: and bringing in Waller and like having happy and healthy
Speaker 4: Danny Dimes and Saquon Barkley, if they got the playoffs again.
Speaker 4: Like I mean, I think there's a lot of this
Speaker 4: stuff where I wouldn't be surprised in the NFC at all.
Speaker 4: But I think there's a pretty big drop off from
Speaker 4: that point as far as confidence level anyway.
Speaker 2: Because Kelly and I have talked about this at varying
Speaker 2: points during a numbers game, which is when people are
Speaker 2: considering yes, no playoff bets. The AFC is obviously stacked,
Speaker 2: but the NFC, no matter how you slice it, I
Speaker 2: guess the one team we can throw to the side
Speaker 2: is Arizona. They're the one team that you couldn't you
Speaker 2: couldn't justify a yes bet on. But for the other
Speaker 2: fifteen teams, if you said you were going to bet
Speaker 2: them yes to make the playoffs, like I couldn't laugh
Speaker 2: at you, right, because there's a path for all of them.
Speaker 3: I think I'm there on the RAMS these days too.
Speaker 3: I don't think I could better.
Speaker 4: Yes, I might be with you too, Yeah, yeah, I
Speaker 4: think the RAMS might end up being kind of fire
Speaker 4: sale territory as we get to towards the trade deadline,
Speaker 4: they need to break it down to build it back up.
Speaker 4: So but outside of that, I agree with this with
Speaker 4: the statement that you just said, like any of these
Speaker 4: other teams, could you know, again, could Jordan Love actually
Speaker 4: be good the Packers?
Speaker 1: He could? Could Could this hype around the Bears and
Speaker 1: all that be true? It could? You know?
Speaker 4: And listen, I don't think that it's out of the
Speaker 4: realm of possibility for the Commanders to to, you know,
Speaker 4: find something under Sam Hall and those skilled position players
Speaker 4: that they have.
Speaker 1: And listen.
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's gonna be some regression to the meme, but
Speaker 4: are we really sitting here going to say that the
Speaker 4: Vikings can't make the playoffs and out of the NFC North.
Speaker 2: I mean, like, you know, it's this, this, These are
Speaker 2: such great points. That Vikings point is great because it
Speaker 2: does become like sports casting one oh one for people
Speaker 2: to immediately say, oh my god, they won so many
Speaker 2: close games, and then the next the way that our
Speaker 2: brains are wired. The next thought means, so therefore the
Speaker 2: pendulum must swing completely to the other end, right, and
Speaker 2: there's no guarantee of that happening none at all. We
Speaker 2: say this for baseball pitchers or whatever. It might regress
Speaker 2: some it doesn't mean that it's going to go the
Speaker 2: completely opposite way. So I'm totally with you on that.
Speaker 2: The uh, I think Sam Howell might actually be really good.
Speaker 2: And the Jordan Love point, which I've made a million
Speaker 2: times on the radio side, but I haven't on this
Speaker 2: podcast obviously. The summer is Kelly's sick and tired of
Speaker 2: hearing this. When we were kids, these quarterbacks got to
Speaker 2: hold the clipboard, as we used to say, for years,
Speaker 2: and when they got to hold the clipboard under the
Speaker 2: same coaching staff. And I'll use Washington again as my
Speaker 2: favorite example because that's the one I grew up on.
Speaker 2: If you got to do that more often than not,
Speaker 2: you turned out really good. Mark Rippen did that. He
Speaker 2: ended up being a Super Bowl MVP. Stan Humphries ended
Speaker 2: up doing that. He ended up going to the Super
Speaker 2: Bowl with the Chargers quarterbacking them there. Trent Green held
Speaker 2: one for years, he ended up who knows if it
Speaker 2: for his injury. Maybe he runs the Greatest Show on
Speaker 2: Turf instead of Kurt Warner. So Jordan Love might actually
Speaker 2: end up really good because he's been under the same
Speaker 2: coaching staff, he's been under the tutelage of a Hall
Speaker 2: of Famer, and for Packers bets, the way that I
Speaker 2: chose to do it. We'll get to I didn't mean
Speaker 2: to get to this first, but I ended up betting
Speaker 2: them by proxy with Matt Lafleur's Coach of the Year
Speaker 2: at almost sixteen to one, because I figured if they're
Speaker 2: any good, that's maybe the path to take. He's pretty
Speaker 2: much a good call for Coach of the Year.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think I should probably be adding on
Speaker 3: to that one because the way that I chose to
Speaker 3: bet that, And I think you could think the same
Speaker 3: way in the NFC South too, Matt.
Speaker 1: I think we you and I have discussed this a
Speaker 1: little bit, but the.
Speaker 3: Like I did a small bet on the Packers to
Speaker 3: win the division because Jordan loves such an unknown, right,
Speaker 3: I do think there is a I think this is
Speaker 3: a team that can have a pretty high ceiling, but like,
Speaker 3: if he sucks, this floor could be pretty low, right,
Speaker 3: So I'd rather take a swing on it on a
Speaker 3: just for them to win the division when I do
Speaker 3: think the division is more up for grabs than what
Speaker 3: the odds indicate, more so than betting one of those
Speaker 3: yes yes to make the playoffs, right, I do think
Speaker 3: there is a reality where they missed the playoffs completely.
Speaker 3: So I think that's a way to think about it.
Speaker 3: NFC North end, NFC South a little bit. And if
Speaker 3: you could tie in, yeah, a Coach of the Year
Speaker 3: or something like that, I think that's a great way.
Speaker 2: Are we comfortable with hill distance between us? Are we
Speaker 2: liking this? We like this distance?
Speaker 1: Well, we'll have to see you on Monday when I
Speaker 1: have to start talking to the crew too.
Speaker 4: But yeah, justil to put a bow on your point, right.
Speaker 4: It's like, and we actually mentioned this back in the
Speaker 4: primetime Action Days whatever. It's like Joe Burrow and Justin
Speaker 4: Herbert broke our thinking about quarterbacks as young guys like
Speaker 4: they So everyone thinks you're just supposed to step in
Speaker 4: and be all pro and like basically start, you know,
Speaker 4: getting the bus ready for the Hall of Fame. And
Speaker 4: it's like, that's just not how it used to happen, right,
Speaker 4: It's not how it used to work. And you look
Speaker 4: at some of these guys, and certainly the packers' organization
Speaker 4: thought enough of Jordan Love to trade back up into
Speaker 4: the first round to come get this dude. And yeah,
Speaker 4: they still had Aaron Rodgers, so they're not gonna have
Speaker 4: They're gonna play him over Aaron Rodgers. But I mean,
Speaker 4: you still have an asset here that they that they value.
Speaker 4: So to think that he can't be a good quarterback
Speaker 4: just because he didn't play immediately is pretty wild. And
Speaker 4: listen and even the Sam House situation, right, I mean,
Speaker 4: like he he is a guy that was highly thought of.
Speaker 1: It just had a down seat.
Speaker 4: He had a down season, you know, in his last
Speaker 4: season in college. But had he come out the year before,
Speaker 4: he would have been a borderline first rounder. So I mean, like,
Speaker 4: there are these guys that it's just because they didn't
Speaker 4: start immediately and play immediately and go out and wow
Speaker 4: everybody immediately, that does not mean that they can't have
Speaker 4: success in in the NFL.
Speaker 2: Totally totally agree. We Uh, we tend to be a
Speaker 2: pretty reactionary, pretty short term, reactionary kind of uh sports fan,
Speaker 2: you know, group of people to begin with as American
Speaker 2: sports fans and as betters. That'll get you in trouble.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: The same question for you, Kelly, what what do you
Speaker 2: believe is the bet that you have that is the
Speaker 2: most off consensus, the most contrarian if.
Speaker 3: You well, according to the the vs In NFL Betting Guide,
Speaker 3: where I'm heads up on this bet with.
Speaker 1: With multiple people, with everybody.
Speaker 3: I guess, I guess it's the Steelers under nine wins
Speaker 3: where I am under nine on Steelers.
Speaker 2: Are you aware of any Steelers stats that I might
Speaker 2: be able to share with you? No?
Speaker 1: What you got?
Speaker 2: I am told that Mike Tomlin has never had a
Speaker 2: losing season.
Speaker 3: Oh never mind, let's just said at this Poddle leaf
Speaker 3: net right, I'm going to guess, and look, do I
Speaker 3: think the Steelers. There's so much of this And this
Speaker 3: is why you led with the NFC conversation with the yes,
Speaker 3: no playoffs, because whether you could find one, two, three
Speaker 3: teams in the NFC where you could get a nice
Speaker 3: plus price on making the playoffs that we know we're
Speaker 3: gonna hit, we just don't know which teams they are, right, Okay,
Speaker 3: the AFC's jam packed. This is this is not so
Speaker 3: much a complete fate of the Steelers, of more of
Speaker 3: this the reality of what is this conference and what
Speaker 3: is that division? And yes, I am a guy who
Speaker 3: is my opinion hasn't changed at all. In the Bengals,
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna be right there competing for a
Speaker 3: Super Bowl this year. And I think the Ravens are
Speaker 3: gonna be better, and I think the Browns are gonna
Speaker 3: be better. So the they're stuck in the division where
Speaker 3: I just think by default they're gonna be coming in
Speaker 3: last place, and ask them to get a get not
Speaker 3: only to a winning season, because at least I've got
Speaker 3: that nine as a push, not only get to a winnings,
Speaker 3: to get that ten wins for me to get beat,
Speaker 3: for them to go ten and seven, I think is
Speaker 3: asking a lot for a team that, Yes, do I
Speaker 3: expect them to be better to I expect can you
Speaker 3: pigot Naji G Harrison these guys to get a little
Speaker 3: bit better?
Speaker 1: Yes, I just think we're asking.
Speaker 3: A ton of this team to hit that ten win
Speaker 3: mork in this division and in this conference in which
Speaker 3: they play. And so that is my most contrarian bet
Speaker 3: for sure.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go now with mine. As I'm about to
Speaker 2: spit it out, I'm realizing I'm contradicting myself in a
Speaker 2: little way because I just got through talking about how
Speaker 2: the Vikings doesn't mean that all of those close wins
Speaker 2: is gonna immediately turn into they're gonna lose all those
Speaker 2: I'm alternate low regular season win total on the Giants.
Speaker 2: I bet under six and a half at plus one
Speaker 2: eighty five. And part of my thinking is contrary to
Speaker 2: what I just said about the Vikings, is they aid
Speaker 2: so well between you know, in the red zone last year,
Speaker 2: both offensively and defensively. Between the twenties they were got awful,
Speaker 2: especially on defense, but they were absolutely balls out great
Speaker 2: in high leverage situations that allowed them quite frankly, I
Speaker 2: think Brian Dabole won a Coach of the Year award
Speaker 2: largely based on those high leverage situations for the Giants,
Speaker 2: and they were able to win a lot of them.
Speaker 2: By the way, they were eight and four in one
Speaker 2: score games. So even if you say, okay, well maybe
Speaker 2: that goes to six and six, whatever it is, it
Speaker 2: was really their performance on the field for most of
Speaker 2: that You when they when they went out to the
Speaker 2: seven and one record, I believe it was seven and one.
Speaker 2: That's what their hallmark was. So, you know, does that
Speaker 2: happen is it? Does that mean that it's gonna change
Speaker 2: this year? I believe it will to some degree, and
Speaker 2: I think with their schedule there is a path where
Speaker 2: this really goes bad for them early. It's not quite
Speaker 2: as bad as the Jets early schedule, which is just
Speaker 2: the gauntlet of all gauntlets early in the year. But
Speaker 2: I got the Giants alternate low regular season win total
Speaker 2: here at circa understand and a half plus one eighty five,
Speaker 2: And I think that's as contrarian as I get in
Speaker 2: terms of my preseason. Are there any picks? Are there
Speaker 2: any bets you've made, Matt, that you've that you've made,
Speaker 2: and you're already having doubts about.
Speaker 4: Uh not really Like I so, I mean a couple
Speaker 4: of minor are fairly chalky that I got in there.
Speaker 4: I mean, Eagles to win the East, Jags to win
Speaker 4: the South, you know, like like I've got that stuff
Speaker 4: in there. I did go in pretty hard, I guess
Speaker 4: early on the Vikings to win the NFC North. And
Speaker 4: maybe if that was one that's in the account that
Speaker 4: maybe I'm questioning just a tad But honestly, I'm I'm
Speaker 4: not like buying in that, like this is just the
Speaker 4: Lions Division, no matter what, right I'm I'm not kind
Speaker 4: of like, I'm not like getting there on that, Like
Speaker 4: it seems like everybody wants to just hand this over
Speaker 4: to Dan Campbell and and this Lions team, and like
Speaker 4: I guess, Gil, you and I are old enough to
Speaker 4: remember that their quarterback is still Jared Goff. Yeah, like one,
Speaker 4: and like one good season isn't gonna like make me
Speaker 4: just like completely forget about the other terrible seasons with
Speaker 4: Jared Goff and all his bad decision making and all
Speaker 4: the stuff that he's done along the way. So I
Speaker 4: have the Vikings for the North, and it was a
Speaker 4: little bit of a price play. I just thought it
Speaker 4: was a little absurd that the Viking that the Lions
Speaker 4: were just so heavily favored in that division. So I
Speaker 4: don't know, I mean, I guess maybe that one, but
Speaker 4: I don't have a ton that I'm really regretting.
Speaker 2: Well, that's good. Let me just seizon the Jaguars one,
Speaker 2: because I know Kelly has that as well. The Jags
Speaker 2: to win the AFC South, and you guys obviously got
Speaker 2: better numbers than exist now. But for those listening and
Speaker 2: are like, oh wait, how high, Like what would you
Speaker 2: lay on that? Because they're obviously in a division with
Speaker 2: the Texans, with the Titans, with the Colts, and obviously
Speaker 2: the Colts have had an off season drama with Jonathan Taylor.
Speaker 2: He's at least out for the first four weeks, if
Speaker 2: not more, they appear. I mean, we talk about, Okay,
Speaker 2: in the NFC, it's you know, whatever order you like, Eagles, Niners.
Speaker 2: Maybe you throw in the Cowboys, maybe you throw in
Speaker 2: the s AFC Chiefs, Bills, obviously the Bengals at the top,
Speaker 2: and then you'll throw in the Charges. This is the
Speaker 2: year where Kelly actually is going is making Chargers bets
Speaker 2: to say that, guys, But like, the Jags actually have
Speaker 2: this path as much as you think, and the Jags
Speaker 2: aren't in that tier. They're in such an easy division,
Speaker 2: which is obviously six games right there, and then they
Speaker 2: have you know, it's one of the easier schedules in
Speaker 2: the NFL. Couldn't they end up? Like if I came
Speaker 2: to you at the end of the season for the
Speaker 2: future and I said, guess what the Jags had the
Speaker 2: best record in the NFL, would you think I'm I'm ridiculous.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, it could happen.
Speaker 4: There is a minus. There are minus one fifty fives available.
Speaker 4: There's it's minus one fifty five still in draft kings
Speaker 4: right now. That that's about a sixty percent, right, sixty
Speaker 4: sixty one is sixty two so like whatever sixty is
Speaker 4: percentage something like that for them to win. I think
Speaker 4: they win this sixty percent of the time very very
Speaker 4: very often. I think they win this like seventy percent
Speaker 4: of the time very often. So I think the minus
Speaker 4: one fifty five is still it's still a really good
Speaker 4: number on this team, because again, if the only threat
Speaker 4: is the Titans, and I think we can all comfortably
Speaker 4: feel like the own threat is going to be the Titans,
Speaker 4: there's going to be some growing pains for Anthony Richardson.
Speaker 4: We know that this Texas team, while not completely devoid
Speaker 4: of talent, it's a lot of young dudes, right Like,
Speaker 4: so they'll probably be decent next year and maybe that
Speaker 4: third year of CJ. Stroud they can actually kind of
Speaker 4: look and try to get into the playoffs.
Speaker 1: But it's not going to be this year.
Speaker 4: And so if the only threat is the Titans, they
Speaker 4: have absolutely no financial commitment to Ryan Tannehill after this season.
Speaker 4: If they look up and this team is like it's
Speaker 4: kind of like coming off the rails a little bit.
Speaker 4: Why wouldn't you go to Will Levis You already you
Speaker 4: drafted him in the second round.
Speaker 1: Why wouldn't you like make a switch.
Speaker 4: And like go ahead, and and if that's the case,
Speaker 4: then he's gonna have growing pains in those final five
Speaker 4: six games of the year whenever they decide to play him,
Speaker 4: whatever that might be. Does it go really bad early
Speaker 4: on and you realize, hey, we need to break this
Speaker 4: down and you try to get whatever you can get
Speaker 4: in return for Derrick Henry. There's just a lot of
Speaker 4: ways for this to kind of go south, I think
Speaker 4: for this division outside of the Jags, who again are
Speaker 4: going for it, right, I mean we know that for sure,
Speaker 4: like this is they're going for this year, and so
Speaker 4: I think one five is still a very bedable number
Speaker 4: for them in the South.
Speaker 3: Oh that's a great number. Yeah, fifty five, Yeah, it's not.
Speaker 3: I mean, one fifty five still around. I was just trying,
Speaker 3: you know, trying to think what number would I go
Speaker 3: up to.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think one's seventy.
Speaker 3: What what's seventy you're talking about apply probability of sixty
Speaker 3: three percent.
Speaker 1: I'm with Matt. I think that it's the I think.
Speaker 3: There's a sixty five seventy percent chance these this team
Speaker 3: wins that division. It's we look at it a lot.
Speaker 3: I look at it a lot like We've talked about
Speaker 3: this before sometimes with golf, Matt, where it's it's the
Speaker 3: I can cross two teams off almost right away.
Speaker 1: Well, you know with the Texans and with the Colts.
Speaker 3: So I'm playing a head to head matchup with the
Speaker 3: Tennessee Titans.
Speaker 1: And there are I.
Speaker 3: Mean, through the whole list of things that Matt just
Speaker 3: talked about, which is yes, a large part of the bet.
Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehill still just sucks.
Speaker 3: So, like you know, if they want to have a
Speaker 3: if they want to have a mediocre five hundred team
Speaker 3: and stick together with that core down the stretch, go ahead.
Speaker 3: I still don't think you're beating the Jaguars in that division.
Speaker 3: And look, Jaggs out of divisions, out of division schedule
Speaker 3: is not easy, Like you know, they had to make
Speaker 3: that pretty tough with them having won it last year.
Speaker 1: But you pick up at least you pick up a
Speaker 1: couple of those wins.
Speaker 3: Man, I think this Jags team that's my favorite bet
Speaker 3: uh so far this offseason is Jackson win that.
Speaker 2: You have one, you regret one.
Speaker 3: I don't know if I'm gonna go regret, but I'm
Speaker 3: feeling way way less comfortable about would be my would
Speaker 3: be my small shot on Panthers to win the division
Speaker 3: in the NFC South, because I will say Matt kind
Speaker 3: of hinted on this.
Speaker 1: I think early on. I'm coming around a little bit.
Speaker 3: We talked a little bit about this on a numbers
Speaker 3: game yesterday we went through week one lines. I'm coming
Speaker 3: around a little bit on the I think there could
Speaker 3: be some value in betting the Bucks early. And yes,
Speaker 3: is there a chance they trade off some pieces or
Speaker 3: something down the road. Yeah, But if you're gonna hang
Speaker 3: big plus numbers for them early, they still have some
Speaker 3: talent there that that I think I can get the
Speaker 3: job done if I'm getting so I'm catching a touchdown
Speaker 3: plus in games early on. So I'm not betting them
Speaker 3: in the futures market. But I guess maybe the Panthers
Speaker 3: I would have dialed back the bet on a little bit,
Speaker 3: but that would.
Speaker 2: Be the only one.
Speaker 4: And Gil one nice point on the Jags, just like
Speaker 4: their win total sitting at nine and a half, but
Speaker 4: it's juiced to like minus one forty on the over.
Speaker 4: I would just rather play them to win the division
Speaker 4: and pay the extra fifteen cents because like as bad
Speaker 4: as I think the other three teams are going to
Speaker 4: be could they win this division at nine and eight?
Speaker 4: Absolutely right, And so it's only like fifteen more cents
Speaker 4: to get them to win the division.
Speaker 1: I'd rather just go that way than to bet them
Speaker 1: over on the win total.
Speaker 2: Have you bet any awards markets?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 4: So I did bet Old Pete Carroll for Coach of
Speaker 4: the Year. And this is just again on my affinity
Speaker 4: I think for the Seahawks team kind of up and down.
Speaker 4: If you look at their roster and what they were
Speaker 4: able to accomplish last year, their roster's better on both
Speaker 4: sides of the ball this year for sure. The addition
Speaker 4: of Jackson Smith and Jigba don't I know, you know,
Speaker 4: because we kind of follow that stuff more heavily. But
Speaker 4: for the people out there that don't follow college football
Speaker 4: as as much as far as talent goes, what this
Speaker 4: guy is going to bring to this offense and what
Speaker 4: he might open up for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett
Speaker 4: as well, there really is gonna be no excuse on
Speaker 4: the offensive side of the ball.
Speaker 1: Really just going to be on the defense.
Speaker 4: And you look and they it's not the legion of boom,
Speaker 4: but they drafted very very well on defense and they've
Speaker 4: got like some young guys that were really really good
Speaker 4: last year and now they've got a year of experience.
Speaker 4: They go in, they draft Witherspoon at corner, who I
Speaker 4: thought was an absolute stud coming out this year as well.
Speaker 4: I think that this is a I think this is
Speaker 4: a team that can really take that next step. And
Speaker 4: that's what they do in these Coach of the Year awards,
Speaker 4: right It's like that it's the team that really takes
Speaker 4: the next step, like you're never gonna get like it
Speaker 4: would take the a.
Speaker 1: Chiefs or an Eagles or whatever.
Speaker 4: Like they'd have to go sixteen to one or seventeen
Speaker 4: and zero for Andy Reid or to win the Coach
Speaker 4: of the Year because they're expected to do super well.
Speaker 4: It's usually these teams that kind of take that next jump.
Speaker 4: And so like a nine win Seahawks team, if they
Speaker 4: can come out and win eleven or twelve games and
Speaker 4: maybe even win that division over the forty nine ers,
Speaker 4: I think that's gonna put Pete Carroll squarely in the discussion.
Speaker 4: And he's so long gil right now, you can find
Speaker 4: like twenty five, twenty eight, thirty to one, like you
Speaker 4: really only need him to kind of get head to
Speaker 4: head with another coach, and then you can lock in
Speaker 4: a profit no matter what, right. And so it's like
Speaker 4: if you as long as they play it down to
Speaker 4: where it's basically gonna be him and somebody else with
Speaker 4: that long number, you're gonna be able to lock in
Speaker 4: a nice little chunk of change as it is. So
Speaker 4: I do have Pete Carroll in there and feel pretty
Speaker 4: good about it.
Speaker 2: Actually, seventy one year old Pete Carroll.
Speaker 3: By the way, I know, Seahawks Week one was actually
Speaker 3: a bet I was getting ready to make after that
Speaker 3: Cooper Cup news came down yesterday.
Speaker 1: It looks like his reaggravated hamstring injury a.
Speaker 3: Little bit but news coming down today as well, No
Speaker 3: Jabal Adams, he's been already been ruled out for Week one,
Speaker 3: and then Witherspoon hamstring unlikely to play week one as well.
Speaker 3: Just a little bit of Seahawks injury news as I
Speaker 3: saw that earlier today. So I don't know, I'm a
Speaker 3: little bit more wishy on that, but I was getting
Speaker 3: I was finally getting ready to make a week one bet,
Speaker 3: and I saw that come down.
Speaker 2: Kelly and I were doing Week one. We just went
Speaker 2: through each game and I ask a questions on the
Speaker 2: magapot every week, you know, what game do you want
Speaker 2: no part of? Like half the schedule, we want no
Speaker 2: part of Gon Already.
Speaker 4: I take it easy in Week one as it is anyway,
Speaker 4: right because it's kind of like I've taken my positions
Speaker 4: on teams that I really like with typically with preseason
Speaker 4: bets as it is anyway, so like I don't feel
Speaker 4: the need to kind of like immediately rush in and
Speaker 4: double down on like the unknown, like having not seen
Speaker 4: these teams actually play real football yet. So it's like, yeah,
Speaker 4: I've already kind of like taken my position on the
Speaker 4: Jags and taken my position on the Eagles and all
Speaker 4: the things like that, and so I'm okay with with
Speaker 4: kind of you know, I'll have one or two, but
Speaker 4: I probably won't have a very big schedule, I mean
Speaker 4: a very big log there for Week one.
Speaker 2: Do you do contest or Survivor or anything like that? Man,
Speaker 2: do you participate?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I got one. I do one millions and I
Speaker 4: did three Survivor this year, so I'm gonna do one.
Speaker 4: So I look, the first year I did three different millions,
Speaker 4: and then last year did two, and then I came
Speaker 4: to the conclusion Gil, and this is gonna hurt.
Speaker 1: I don't want to. I don't want to hurt. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't want to.
Speaker 4: I don't want to offend anybody over there at the
Speaker 4: d N Circa and all this and aver like, because
Speaker 4: I know you won't people to have more entries, but
Speaker 4: it's like it's hard enough to find five games every
Speaker 4: week that you actually have any sort of confidence level
Speaker 4: and whatsoever. So like I was like, what the hell
Speaker 4: am I doing with two and three entries in these things? Like,
Speaker 4: oh what further, why am I doing this?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: When I when I give the thousand dollars for my millions,
Speaker 2: I'm literally like, it's the closest I ever come to
Speaker 2: and here is my donation. But I just it's just
Speaker 2: I there's no way, I mean, five a week, exactly
Speaker 2: what you said, who has naturally five forget leans even
Speaker 2: best bets on a given week? Uh? And Survivor I
Speaker 2: have a sort of contrary and opinion again to your
Speaker 2: point of I apologize to Derek Stevens in advance, but
Speaker 2: you know there's a there's a max of ten now
Speaker 2: in Survivor. Some people even exceed that by being creative.
Speaker 2: I got five last year. I only have five this
Speaker 2: year again because I do believe there's a point of
Speaker 2: redundancy in Survivor. Like I think if you have exponentially
Speaker 2: more more entries, you just play it the same way
Speaker 2: and you just eliminate them faster. So a lot of
Speaker 2: people are like, well, there might be some people listening
Speaker 2: to this who are like, what are you talking about.
Speaker 2: You want to have multiple entries by Thanksgiving? Yes, that
Speaker 2: is the object, But I don't believe it's a function
Speaker 2: of how many you start with. I believe it's a
Speaker 2: function of how you play the game. And so I
Speaker 2: think you're just haphazardly spending more money on random extraneous
Speaker 2: entries in Survivor, and inevitably there was going to be
Speaker 2: two or three people that have multiple entries come Thanksgiving,
Speaker 2: right right, So I don't know, that's my thought on
Speaker 2: that we'll get to. I just want to throw out
Speaker 2: some bets and you can riff on these two Kelly
Speaker 2: after and give yours. I did say I have Matt
Speaker 2: lafleuor Coach of the Year. I believe if Jordan Love
Speaker 2: is good. I believe if the Packers win that division,
Speaker 2: Matt Lafleur looks Roses at the departure of Aaron Rodgers,
Speaker 2: first NFL head coach fired, which was available. I don't
Speaker 2: know if this was a offshore, if this was a circa.
Speaker 2: I went with Matt Eberflus of the Bears at fifteen
Speaker 2: to one because I figure, if it doesn't start well
Speaker 2: for the Bears, and I don't know that it will
Speaker 2: or won't, but if it doesn't, I think the heat
Speaker 2: will come quickly on him if the Justin Fields thing
Speaker 2: doesn't leap off the ground. Last team to record first win.
Speaker 2: I went a little off the grid. This is sort
Speaker 2: of my my NFL draft part. Duh. This was the
Speaker 2: first NFL draft where I got crushed, and much of
Speaker 2: that was They're never gonna draft this short guy number one,
Speaker 2: They're gonna draft CJ. Stroud, and so the Panthers obviously
Speaker 2: did draft Bryce Young and by the way, still short.
Speaker 2: I have last team to record first win the Panthers
Speaker 2: at fifteen to one, because I think there is a
Speaker 2: I think there is a scenario. I'm not I'm not
Speaker 2: buying into it yet. You have some awards and some.
Speaker 1: Props season I have zero awards. Yes, I have props.
Speaker 3: I have zero awards, but just talking about them real quick,
Speaker 3: I think you guys picked the only market that I
Speaker 3: could even consider a bet, and I think that i'd
Speaker 3: probably and I might end up doing to splashing a
Speaker 3: little either, you know, either with the Packers were with
Speaker 3: the Seahawks Coach of the Year. I think you guys
Speaker 3: are thinking the right way. The other one I wanted
Speaker 3: to turn the turners around with you guys on though,
Speaker 3: do you have any feel or even a lean when
Speaker 3: it comes to MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive
Speaker 3: Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Speaker 2: I think MVP. Just to answer that part, I don't
Speaker 2: think there's a bet there because I think the guys
Speaker 2: at the top are exactly who they should be. It's
Speaker 2: kind of my feeling on all the markets, just maybe
Speaker 2: maybe so right like, so you're right because defensive Player
Speaker 2: of the Year, it's what Micah Parsons.
Speaker 1: It's Parsons, Garrett TJ.
Speaker 2: Watt, Nick Bo's the usual suspect y right, So I mean,
Speaker 2: if you have conviction on one of the last year
Speaker 2: I had Michael Parsons plus six fifty, I was this
Speaker 2: is the easiest ben in the world. This is gonna
Speaker 2: cast no problem, and then all of a sudden not
Speaker 2: at all, right, Right, So what your point is a
Speaker 2: great one. There are certain markets where yeah, we all
Speaker 2: love Patrick Mahomes, but do you really want to bet
Speaker 2: him at what six or seven to one or whatever
Speaker 2: it is seven to one to win MVP. I don't
Speaker 2: know how you feel about what Kelly was saying.
Speaker 1: Man, yeah, no, it's so I was.
Speaker 4: I did this kind of like bit specifically on Joe Burrow,
Speaker 4: and you'll know that, like nobody loves Joe Burrow more
Speaker 4: than me, but like his number is not going anywhere, right,
Speaker 4: I mean it's it's like, so, why don't you see
Speaker 4: what this calf looks like after a few games and
Speaker 4: like cause, I mean, dude, he could like plant one
Speaker 4: time and like that calf injury could it could happen.
Speaker 4: I mean, it just doesn't make a lot of sense
Speaker 4: for me at the top of the board for sure,
Speaker 4: from an MVP standpoint. If you wanted to go way
Speaker 4: further down the line and like take a couple of
Speaker 4: dart throws, I mean, if you wanted to do the
Speaker 4: the Geno Smith stuff of the world and the Trevor
Speaker 4: Lawrence stuff.
Speaker 1: In the world.
Speaker 4: I mean, like, I don't hate it, I guess, but
Speaker 4: just not something really for me. I think the only
Speaker 4: bet that you can assuredly do not make unless you
Speaker 4: just want to light the money on. Just send the
Speaker 4: money to us and we will put it to better
Speaker 4: use is Deshaun Watson MVP, because I can assure you.
Speaker 5: I can assure you I got a better I assure you,
Speaker 5: yeah that if this is a human voted award, unless
Speaker 5: he throws for seven thousand yards and seventy five touchdowns,
Speaker 5: he is not getting MVP.
Speaker 1: Not happening.
Speaker 2: I have a better way for you.
Speaker 1: I heard your money.
Speaker 2: I heard someone advocate Deshaun Watson for Comeback Player of
Speaker 2: the Year, to which I said, oh no, no, no, no,
Speaker 2: think about what he's coming back from. Could you imagine that? Look, wait,
Speaker 2: what's he coming back from? Uh allegations? Yeah, yeah, yeah, no,
Speaker 2: he's not winning that. By the way, come Back by the.
Speaker 3: Year with sixty to one there and thirty to one MVP,
Speaker 3: I feel like that's accurlate. Actually stop it. At least twice.
Speaker 3: As a bunch of chances when he come.
Speaker 2: Back Comeback Player of the Year, you would have to
Speaker 2: add you'd have to add twenty zero.
Speaker 1: There's no way.
Speaker 4: Because at least at least with MVP, he could, he
Speaker 4: could play his way into it the most immaculate season
Speaker 4: in the history of the world, and like if they
Speaker 4: didn't vote it for him, then it would just be
Speaker 4: like the most obvious snubbing ever or something like that.
Speaker 1: So like he, like I said, he could, he could.
Speaker 4: Throw for sixty five hundred yards and like sixty sixty
Speaker 4: five touchdowns and then it'd be like, you can't, you
Speaker 4: can't not give it to him. But yeah, comeback player,
Speaker 4: no chance, no chance.
Speaker 3: Yeah, these I'm just scrolling down the MVP odds here.
Speaker 2: This is it's not exciting.
Speaker 3: It's becoming tough, because how the hell does Trey Lance
Speaker 3: have shorter odds than Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, anybody's starting
Speaker 3: in the NFL should have shorter odds than Trey.
Speaker 2: Lance, but he's in there at fifty to One's third.
Speaker 4: Kelly, you answered, as far as like offensive rookie the year,
Speaker 4: I mean, I think the pricing is pretty accurate on
Speaker 4: Jon Robinson when you looked at like this guy's basically
Speaker 4: never going to come off the field, and so his
Speaker 4: counting stats, Yeah, are gonna be ridiculous, right, I mean,
Speaker 4: like there when he's not lined up in the backfield
Speaker 4: and they do go without you, Like he's gonna line
Speaker 4: up in the slot and he's gonna play slot receiver.
Speaker 4: It's like he's going to have a ton of catches,
Speaker 4: a ton of receiving yards, a ton of rushing yards.
Speaker 4: He's probably gonna be their goal line guy, so he's
Speaker 4: probably gonna get the counting stats from the from the
Speaker 4: rushing st of g I think betting against him is
Speaker 4: almost just betting on an injury.
Speaker 3: And he's plus two fifty plus two seventy five, you're
Speaker 3: as not betting on that though, right, like plus two
Speaker 3: seventy five running back.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's why I think that market is all.
Speaker 4: But like I wanted to take a Yeah, it's like
Speaker 4: if you wanted to take one of the three quarterbacks
Speaker 4: and like just hope that one of them hits, I
Speaker 4: guess you could go that route.
Speaker 1: But even the prices on that is all that.
Speaker 2: Enough. Yeah. Yeah, back to comeback player of the Year.
Speaker 2: I know, obviously it's not gonna be de Shaun Watson.
Speaker 2: We were, you know, we were saying tomorrow Hamlin. Literally,
Speaker 2: there's never been any precedent for this. The man almost
Speaker 2: died on the football field, and we were saying the
Speaker 2: off season, what was the comment we settled on it
Speaker 2: if he if he makes one play, he should be
Speaker 2: the comeback player of the year maybe. And you did
Speaker 2: have a pushback at because I said, if he just
Speaker 2: shows up, yeah, yeah, yeah, and he said, no, he's
Speaker 2: got to make one He's got to make a tackle
Speaker 2: or something. All right, So he's got to make one tackle.
Speaker 2: But but I know, we we sort of had that exchange.
Speaker 2: Are we fooling ourselves? Like, are we couldn't possibly be
Speaker 2: that we are that short term of a memory that
Speaker 2: there actually is somebody else in there that if they
Speaker 2: did something special, you'd be like, well, actually, this might
Speaker 2: not be the worst bet in the world.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, step one has happened with Hamlin already.
Speaker 1: He made the fifty three.
Speaker 4: Like there was at least a question as to whether
Speaker 4: he might get cut. It's like step one of the process.
Speaker 2: You have already. Could you imagine that.
Speaker 1: Pr backlash on.
Speaker 2: That sorry tomorrow he gave it a good run.
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I was I was advocating at least a
Speaker 4: little bit for Bryce Hall until the until the Dalvin
Speaker 4: Cook signing, and so now I don't think that that
Speaker 4: is as sexy for sure, because now I mean he's
Speaker 4: gonna get at least what thirty of his carry siphoned
Speaker 4: off by Dalvin Cook. There is a narrative and since
Speaker 4: this is a narrative deal, like there is a narrative
Speaker 4: to John Metchi, but it just depends, like it just
Speaker 4: depends on if he is able to put up like
Speaker 4: some numbers into what is probably going to be a
Speaker 4: bad Texans offense. But like there is at least a
Speaker 4: narrat there with all with that right coming horrible injury
Speaker 4: and then not Hodgins from Pomar. I mean, like there's
Speaker 4: there's like a narrative there, at least for him. So
Speaker 4: twenty eight to one I thought was at least fairly
Speaker 4: interesting for him, But there is there is limitations in
Speaker 4: the Texans offense for sure.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was the old I think I just looking
Speaker 3: at it, right, I think that's the only other one
Speaker 3: I would even think of.
Speaker 2: That's the only acceptable the person to supplanting, right.
Speaker 3: And shout out to Jeff Parlay Parls because he was
Speaker 3: the first person I've I heard bring that up, you know,
Speaker 3: months and months and months ago at this point, and
Speaker 3: I know other people have discussed it.
Speaker 2: But battle leukemia by the way, just to be clear.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, Like I think there's a chance.
Speaker 3: I mean, if if he has a significantly better receiving
Speaker 3: season when it comes to stats than what DeMar Hamlin's
Speaker 3: able to do defensively.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he's in the mix.
Speaker 3: So I don't think I think anybody grabbing a twenty
Speaker 3: eight to one on him, I don't mind that.
Speaker 2: But but I guess what we're saying is, if Russell
Speaker 2: Wilson has this amazing bounce back season, he's not winning
Speaker 2: Comeback Player of the Year.
Speaker 3: We agree, Yeah, okay, uh no, I don't really get
Speaker 3: to tu to one either. So behind Hamlin, who's actually going.
Speaker 1: To give the praise to Sean Payton?
Speaker 4: Like it's not gonna be like they're like they're gonna
Speaker 4: say like they're gonna say, like, oh, look, Hackett was
Speaker 4: so terrible. Here comes Sean Payton and then he reinvented
Speaker 4: Russell Wilson, right, like, like Sean Payton gets that love
Speaker 4: instead of.
Speaker 2: Russell will Since since you bring it up, is it
Speaker 2: possible that in Hackett and Urban Meyer. We have just
Speaker 2: lived through maybe the two worst head coaches in the
Speaker 2: history of the National Football.
Speaker 1: Leag Pretty pretty close. Yeah, Like I'm.
Speaker 2: Trying to think it pretty close, right. I know Jets
Speaker 2: fans would say rich co tight back in the day,
Speaker 2: but this was pretty happy. Speaking of the Jets, since
Speaker 2: they obviously dominated all the headlines in the offseason with
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers and they were on hard knocks, they have
Speaker 2: a brutal for six games to the season, brutal. Where
Speaker 2: do you stand on them? Matt? Like? Are you bullish?
Speaker 2: Are you bearish? What's your deal?
Speaker 4: I've been down on them pretty much all all off
Speaker 4: season and and mainly because of what you just mentioned.
Speaker 1: I mean, it is it is one.
Speaker 4: Thing to add a future Hall of Famer first ballot quarterback,
Speaker 4: and I think that that is definitely going to make
Speaker 4: this team better, There's no question about that. However, you
Speaker 4: still have to play these others. I think that division
Speaker 4: with the Dolphins and the Bills, that's four games that
Speaker 4: are gonna be very difficult.
Speaker 1: I'm not really very high on on the Patriots, but.
Speaker 4: I mean there's there's four games are gonna be super
Speaker 4: tough and as every other part of that schedule is
Speaker 4: just so so so rough.
Speaker 2: This is I'm sorry, this is their first six before
Speaker 2: the bye just a just a pachers what you're saying?
Speaker 2: Home buff Home, Buffalo at Dallas, Home, New England, Home,
Speaker 2: Kansas City at Denver in the elevation home Philadelphia, Oh
Speaker 2: my god.
Speaker 4: And then by the way, you yeah, you come you
Speaker 4: get that bye, you come out. What if the Giants
Speaker 4: are actually not right? So then now you go Giants
Speaker 4: and the Bill that's right, yeah yeah, and then and
Speaker 4: then Bill's Dolphins, right, and like with the with a
Speaker 4: with a Raiders game sandwiched in between. So it could
Speaker 4: be a there's a non zero chance that this team
Speaker 4: is like not only under five hundred by the time
Speaker 4: we get to week twelve, but like well under five
Speaker 4: hundred by the time we get to week twelve. And again, like,
Speaker 4: I don't think that that's like out of the scope
Speaker 4: of what can realistically happen. This isn't one of those Hey,
Speaker 4: Matt throw out a statement in hyperbole and everyone like
Speaker 4: per clicks like, no, that's not what I'm doing. I
Speaker 4: honestly think that there is a chance by the time
Speaker 4: we get to week twelve, this Jeff team could be
Speaker 4: under five hundred and maybe even a couple games under
Speaker 4: five hundred.
Speaker 1: Yeah. The other one with.
Speaker 3: That is I think everybody should temper the air, like
Speaker 3: to Aaron Rodgers expectations a bit, because I still think,
Speaker 3: I mean, call me crazy if you want. I still
Speaker 3: think this team is going to recognize that they had
Speaker 3: a great defense last year. You obviously you got Breeze Hall,
Speaker 3: but you felt the need to add Dalvin Cook. Like
Speaker 3: I do think this is a team that's gonna be
Speaker 3: pretty balanced offensively, Like I think they're gonna lean on
Speaker 3: their defense, Like I don't think it's gonna be hey,
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers, like go out and sling the ball around like.
Speaker 2: We need you know, we need you and you alone.
Speaker 1: To save this whole season. I don't really know that
Speaker 1: they're in that spot.
Speaker 4: They go, like, listen, Garrett Wilson, I think is an
Speaker 4: awesome player, and I like all this, But like, I
Speaker 4: have been looking pretty pretty hard, and I think I'm
Speaker 4: gonna I was waiting to see if, like the Jets fans,
Speaker 4: that everybody would kind of pump up his totals and
Speaker 4: stuff for the season. But like I'm looking at the
Speaker 4: under one there's a lot of mouths to feed there
Speaker 4: in that offense as it is anyway. And then second,
Speaker 4: if you go back and look, so the twenty twenty Packers, right,
Speaker 4: and who was their offensive coordinator, and if they know Howcket,
Speaker 4: they were dead last in situation neutral pace. The twenty
Speaker 4: twenty one Packers thirty first in situation neutral pace.
Speaker 1: The twenty twenty.
Speaker 4: Version with Hacket gone was twenty eighth in situation neutral pace.
Speaker 4: So Aaron Rodgers just operate slowly, like he is a
Speaker 4: deliberate dude who likes to get up to the line,
Speaker 4: and he likes to look at the defense, and he
Speaker 4: likes to call audibles he likes. So I think they're
Speaker 4: going to run fewer plays than most teams out there.
Speaker 4: And then you add what Kelly said, and then you
Speaker 4: add what Kelly said with the defense like they might
Speaker 4: not be looking up at like like very many deficits
Speaker 4: are like you know, where they have to play past
Speaker 4: and up that tempo and throw a lot. And so
Speaker 4: I just think, like, you know, some of the unders
Speaker 4: on some of these offensive players on the jet side
Speaker 4: is the way to look as well.
Speaker 3: It's interesting, Yeah, I think I think unders on the
Speaker 3: games too, right, we laid out the tough schedule, like,
Speaker 3: I don't think that. I don't think the Jets are
Speaker 3: gonna I don't think they're gonna be horrible. I don't think
Speaker 3: we're gonna get blown out by these teams. But okay,
Speaker 3: you're playing against Kansas City, Like, what are you trying
Speaker 3: to do? You're trying to keep Patrick Mahomes off the
Speaker 3: field for as long as you can just because you
Speaker 3: have Aaron Rodgers. Now, I don't think that changes that
Speaker 3: at all. Right, So it's I, yeah, I think all
Speaker 3: of that I would be. I haven't bet any of them,
Speaker 3: but I think anybody looking at player props season total
Speaker 3: long unders on a lot of Jets things. If it
Speaker 3: has to do receiving or passing, I don't think it's
Speaker 3: a bad play.
Speaker 2: You bet other stuff, Kelly, What else did you bet here? Yeah?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I uh, let's see what else do I have?
Speaker 1: I do have a Chargers, Yes, to make the playoffs.
Speaker 2: There you go. This is the year.
Speaker 1: Minus what fifteen. I'm on board for that one. I am.
Speaker 2: We all had our year doing this, we all.
Speaker 3: I'm so glad you've backed me up at what at
Speaker 3: least saying that cause I'm just I can't look at
Speaker 3: that roster.
Speaker 2: That was last year. It last year, I know, I know.
Speaker 2: Do we think Brandon by the way, do we think
Speaker 2: Brandon Staley? I know, because when we were doing Primetime Action,
Speaker 2: we were correct me if I'm wrong, You'll correct me
Speaker 2: if I'm wrong. We were Brandon Staley guys. Yeah, we thought,
Speaker 2: we thought And then like the first year, let's face it,
Speaker 2: like I get it, you wanted to be this analytics
Speaker 2: driven guy who went for it when most other teams
Speaker 2: didn't because you saw the real numbers on this, and
Speaker 2: he took it too far right like some of the times,
Speaker 2: like in his own territory deep they were doing. It's
Speaker 2: like okay, dude, stop it. And then I thought last year,
Speaker 2: like times were I thought he should have gone for it.
Speaker 2: He almost like he was like, no, I can't do
Speaker 2: that anymore. Right, you know, I don't know where do
Speaker 2: you stand on Brandon Staley? Now? Do you like him
Speaker 2: as a coach?
Speaker 4: I think I think that it might not matter as
Speaker 4: much this year because bringing in Kellen Moore and getting
Speaker 4: rid of Joe Lombardy.
Speaker 1: Yes, and like that's a big trick, dude. It was
Speaker 1: like Lombardi.
Speaker 4: You have a dude with the with one of the
Speaker 4: biggest arms we've ever seen at the quarterback position in
Speaker 4: the NFL, and his average depth of target was twenty
Speaker 4: sixth in the NFL last year.
Speaker 2: It's like criminal, that's ridiculous.
Speaker 1: It's criminal.
Speaker 4: Like you have one of the best fifty to fifty
Speaker 4: ball receivers in the NFL, and Mike Williams like he
Speaker 4: might he's not the most polished dude, but he can
Speaker 4: like go up and get a fifty to fifty ball
Speaker 4: and like you're twenty six the NFL on average up
Speaker 4: to target. Like the fact that they're gonna throw and
Speaker 4: throw more and throw down field and take advantage of
Speaker 4: these offensive weapons, I think it will probably put Staley
Speaker 4: in fewer chances to blow it, you know, like like
Speaker 4: your chances to have to like do like.
Speaker 1: Some of these things.
Speaker 4: So cut to a shine, yeah, exactly, cut to fourthour.
Speaker 3: I just I think that I think the addition to Kellimore,
Speaker 3: like you're talking about, I think that's huge. Look look
Speaker 3: at what he's done with the Cowboys passing game over
Speaker 3: the past couple of years. We Cowboys are always in
Speaker 3: the spotlight so much. But like that has been a
Speaker 3: solid passing game. And meanwhile, you're talking about in pass
Speaker 3: offense that ran twenty eighth last season and a lot
Speaker 3: of what you're talking about, but over a pro football focus,
Speaker 3: they were in twenty eighth rights passing offense with the Chargers.
Speaker 3: So I think that's gonna like, that's gonna change things.
Speaker 3: I love Quentin Johnson addition there in the wide receiving corps.
Speaker 3: And this is a team where, you know, you joke,
Speaker 3: you'll about everybody's kind of been high on them in
Speaker 3: different years, but like they have struggled through major injuries
Speaker 3: at the worst time.
Speaker 2: They're always injured every.
Speaker 3: Year, and we always choose to recognize some of those teams.
Speaker 3: We never recognize the teams that just run pure all
Speaker 3: year long on injuries, you know, and it's like that
Speaker 3: is such a big deal when it.
Speaker 1: Comes to the NFL.
Speaker 3: So I'm kind of hoping, hey, maybe like Mike Williams,
Speaker 3: you know, Ketan Nollen can actually play a few games
Speaker 3: together like this year, That would be nice to see
Speaker 3: once in a while because they're seemingly never do. So
Speaker 3: I'm in on the Chargers. What else did I bet
Speaker 3: Raiders and Titans fewest wins. I took shots on you know,
Speaker 3: maybe the Cardinals moves earlier this week. I have me
Speaker 3: be less excited about those bets too, because I don't
Speaker 3: know if we've seen a more declarative move of we're
Speaker 3: in the.
Speaker 1: Tank, then see it go by the way.
Speaker 2: I made that good Panthers last team to record a
Speaker 2: first win the day before, of course, right the day
Speaker 2: before they cut Colt McCoy. Sorry to interrupt, but it's like,
Speaker 2: so you famously a couple of years ago, Matt, you
Speaker 2: had those Texans unders. The Texans had the lowest win total.
Speaker 2: You bet it and betted again. You had like a
Speaker 2: five and a half and a five and a four
Speaker 2: and a half. I camera, are the Cardinals so bad?
Speaker 2: And not only the Cardinals, let me just not pick
Speaker 2: on them, but like we were looking at the Texans,
Speaker 2: I don't know how the Texans get to their season
Speaker 2: win total leader, Like, is there a team where you're like,
Speaker 2: they can't. Yes, they're bad and everybody knows they're bad,
Speaker 2: but their season wind totals are not low enough.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, so I didn't. I did not move
Speaker 1: any lines.
Speaker 4: Everyone likes to scream whatever we talk about the lines
Speaker 4: that we got and say, well, yeah, I get it,
Speaker 4: like whatever, But that's why I bet. That's why I
Speaker 4: bet it early to get the bet in my cowra.
Speaker 4: So they opened this Cardinals team at five and a half,
Speaker 4: by the way, five and a half, right, that was
Speaker 4: like as as early as often and as many different
Speaker 4: books here in town as put it up. I went
Speaker 4: in and hit it as many times I could. They
Speaker 4: went to four. By the way, Draft Kings is three
Speaker 4: and a half. Now I might have it like they've
Speaker 4: all the way they've gone down to three and a
Speaker 4: half now on on this team. Listen, there is I've
Speaker 4: screamed this from a mountaintop. I know you guys talked
Speaker 4: about it, but if you people are just now listening
Speaker 4: to the play game, they have every incentive they're doing
Speaker 4: the right thing. They have every incentive to tear this
Speaker 4: thing down and be the worst team in the NFL.
Speaker 4: Like very very very few opportunities do you ever get
Speaker 4: to actually rebuild a team in as short a fashion
Speaker 4: as they might be able to do because you have
Speaker 4: Kyler Murray sitting on the sideline. If you're the worst team,
Speaker 4: you get the number one overall pick. If the Texans
Speaker 4: are the second worst team and you run really pure,
Speaker 4: you are going to end up with the first and
Speaker 4: the second pick in this draft, in a quarterback heavy
Speaker 4: draft in which teams will give Heaven and Earth to
Speaker 4: draft either Drake May or Caleb Williams. So you have
Speaker 4: a choice to either stick with Kyler Murray and then
Speaker 4: you trade both of those picks for a king's ransom
Speaker 4: and you can actually rebuild this team almost overnight, or
Speaker 4: you move on from Kyler Murray. You'll still get something
Speaker 4: in return for Kyler Murray. You draft Caleb Williams, and
Speaker 4: then you moved the number two pick for Heaven and
Speaker 4: Earth for somebody who wants Drake May. Like it's like
Speaker 4: the greatest scenario ever for this Cardinals team to be bad,
Speaker 4: and they are buying into it early and often, and
Speaker 4: I'm here for it.
Speaker 1: I love it. It's so good.
Speaker 2: I'm a big fan of a tame. I'm a big
Speaker 2: fan of a tame.
Speaker 3: And I always brought him because I applawed the Yeah,
Speaker 3: it's kind of kind of like a poker thing, right,
Speaker 3: you got a bad hand, throw it away, like I
Speaker 3: always applaud the Rosen move too, Like you went over,
Speaker 3: he sucked you figured it out quick. You moved on
Speaker 3: and went to a quarterback. If you don't have a
Speaker 3: quarterback that can win in this league, you're not You're
Speaker 3: not winning anything. So I some of these teams stretch
Speaker 3: it out for too long with these guys.
Speaker 1: If you know he sucks, he move on, by the way,
Speaker 1: That's what the Niners did.
Speaker 2: By the way, Caleb Williams has already stated that he'd
Speaker 2: stay another year if it's not one of his desired teams.
Speaker 2: He gets paid worth of ten million on nil. He
Speaker 2: was just hanging out at USC. He's like, I don't
Speaker 2: want to play for that team.
Speaker 1: Man.
Speaker 3: Do you just think for really in a world where
Speaker 3: that could happen? Now more with the nil money I do?
Speaker 1: That is so so just to uh to the GIL.
Speaker 4: Not to get too off, but is a pre preseason
Speaker 4: best regardless. I have Quinn Youwers, Michael Pennix and JJ
Speaker 4: McCarthy number one overall pick tickets that I do every year.
Speaker 1: As you guys know, I take these. I take these.
Speaker 4: Quarterbacks with bigger numbers and go ahead and get them
Speaker 4: in and and listen, there is I think there's a
Speaker 4: non zero chance Caleb Williams has the leverage to do
Speaker 4: something wacky like that, right, And I also look at
Speaker 4: the like the prototypical NFL quarterback that's that you know,
Speaker 4: what they love so much is Quinn youwers like you know,
Speaker 4: the big strong art whatever like all that, Like all
Speaker 4: you need is one team to fall in love with him,
Speaker 4: Michael Pinnicks with all the dual threat stuff that he's got,
Speaker 4: and like you got that. And then JJ McCarthy on
Speaker 4: a team that might win the national championship in Michigan.
Speaker 4: That certainly helps a lot as well somewhere along the way.
Speaker 4: So for me, I have those three tickets in there
Speaker 4: on the off chance that Caleb Williams really does do
Speaker 4: something wacky and decide to stay in college. Like you mentioned,
Speaker 4: he makes like seven to eight figures staying in college.
Speaker 1: So it's not the craziest thing in the world. It
Speaker 1: is wild, but it's just in my head.
Speaker 3: I can't get around, you know, Like you guys brought
Speaker 3: up earlier with Sam Halleck, that was a guy who
Speaker 3: was projected to be a first round pick before he
Speaker 3: had a bad year, right, and then you'd slide.
Speaker 1: It's like, would you really gamble on that?
Speaker 3: And I don't know, if you're getting if you're making
Speaker 3: that much money a year in nil.
Speaker 2: Do you ten million to hang out in LA for
Speaker 2: another year?
Speaker 3: I mean, I guess it makes up for some of
Speaker 3: the draft position stuff, but man if whenever that happens,
Speaker 3: if that happens, that's it's gonna still.
Speaker 2: Be pretty sure. One follow up, because you mentioned it's
Speaker 2: three and a half at DraftKings mat on the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: Is that too low? It does an NFL team, even
Speaker 2: in tank mode, just like we say with baseball teams,
Speaker 2: like the worst baseball team figures out a way to
Speaker 2: win fifty games? Right, maybe not the A's this year,
Speaker 2: but you get the idea. Is that the same with
Speaker 2: an NFL team?
Speaker 1: Like?
Speaker 2: Is that too low? You wouldn't been under on that,
Speaker 2: would you.
Speaker 1: The Bears won three games last year?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess so, Cardinals won four game games last year.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know it's the Texans won three games last year.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's a tough it was a tough bet
Speaker 2: to sit through, though, it is it is.
Speaker 3: It is the one I always think about though, Like
Speaker 3: you know, when people ask me, the Bears last year
Speaker 3: are the perfect example, rags. They won three games and
Speaker 3: like somehow we all walked away with like upsides from
Speaker 3: the season with Bears, right, it was like, well, I
Speaker 3: think Field shown a couple of things.
Speaker 1: It's like they won three freaking games.
Speaker 2: Like what are we talking about wildings? Yeah, any other
Speaker 2: bets that you had, Matt that you wanted to let
Speaker 2: people know about.
Speaker 4: Uh So, I mean, look, it is of the numbers
Speaker 4: that are still available, because I don't want to sit
Speaker 4: here and talk about stuff that people can't get anymore. Oh,
Speaker 4: I told your receiving prop so that one, yes, the
Speaker 4: ceedee lamb one right, yeah, yeah, so I have ceedee
Speaker 4: lamb over ten ninety nine and a half yards. I
Speaker 4: think people are over estimating the like the conservative nature
Speaker 4: of McCarthy taking over and calling plays here, Like, yeah,
Speaker 4: are they going to be as past happy as they
Speaker 4: were with Kellen Moore? Maybe not, but it's not going
Speaker 4: to be this precipitous difference that like everybody. So these
Speaker 4: projections on what I think for one of the most
Speaker 4: explosive offenses in the league now that Zeke is gone,
Speaker 4: like he is no longer siphoning off these carries that
Speaker 4: just waste plays for this team, and so I think
Speaker 4: they're going to get more first downs, and if you
Speaker 4: get more first downs, there's more opportunities for these things
Speaker 4: to get home. And so I think Ceedee Lamb is
Speaker 4: not only a really good bet for over eleven hundred yards,
Speaker 4: but I mean most receiving yards in the league. I
Speaker 4: think is not out of the realm of possibility, just
Speaker 4: depending on how big of a chunk Jordan Addison actually
Speaker 4: takes out of Justin Jefferson up there in Minnesota. I
Speaker 4: think that Ceedee Lamb over ten ninety nine and a
Speaker 4: half is a really really good bet to ye.
Speaker 3: I think just to fall up on that point, like
Speaker 3: I don't get the McCarthy Like, I've never really got
Speaker 3: what you know McCarthy's talking about. We need to slow
Speaker 3: this down, YadA YadA, ya run the ball more. Well, okay,
Speaker 3: it's easier to say that if you had the same
Speaker 3: roster as you did last year. But like you don't
Speaker 3: have the dual backs of Zeke and Tony Pollard.
Speaker 1: Now, like you're putting all your eggs.
Speaker 2: Do we know Tony Pollard is gonna be good moving change?
Speaker 3: I don't know for sure, Gil, but you're putting but ployers,
Speaker 3: they're putting all their eggs in that basket like this
Speaker 3: could very easily turn into a.
Speaker 1: Just pass heavy offense just because.
Speaker 2: It has to. Yeah, it's uh and an Bell and
Speaker 2: Zeke ends up with the Patriots, by the way. By
Speaker 2: the way that I'll also you know, the strange backup
Speaker 2: quarterback thing ends up being Matt corral Now in the
Speaker 2: end and not Bailey Zappy. That was interesting, and not
Speaker 2: Tom Brady and not Tom Brady, which people wanted so
Speaker 2: bad for it to happen. I know they will try
Speaker 2: to will that into existence. Uh Okay, let's do this
Speaker 2: because I want to get this on record, your seven
Speaker 2: playoff teams in each conference, because this will be fun
Speaker 2: to look back on.
Speaker 1: So, so we're gonna go.
Speaker 4: We're gonna go Bills, Bengals, Jags, and Chiefs because of
Speaker 4: the four division winners. Right, I went with I think
Speaker 4: the Browns are gonna be good. I do, Like I mean,
Speaker 4: it's it's there's if the only way that they're not
Speaker 4: good is if Deshaun Watson is actually washed, and if
Speaker 4: that's the case, then they won't be. But they're they
Speaker 4: got a lot of they got a lot of dudes,
Speaker 4: and so it's find it hard to believe that they
Speaker 4: can't get into the playoffs. So I have the Browns
Speaker 4: in the playoffs as well. I have the Chargers in
Speaker 4: the playoffs as well. Yeah, I know, Banana and the tailpipe.
Speaker 4: Yet again, with the Chargers, I get it. I'm gonna
Speaker 4: go ahead and and do that and my final playoff team.
Speaker 4: And this is where I get a lot of controversy
Speaker 4: from people. It's actually not the Ravens. For me, it
Speaker 4: is the Dolphins, and so I'm going the Dolphins as
Speaker 4: the seventh pick. I think that Dolphins roster we have
Speaker 4: to assume health.
Speaker 1: I get it. I know if Tua takes one big hit,
Speaker 1: this could be all over.
Speaker 4: And I get all that, which is why I'm not
Speaker 4: gonna go as far as to say they can win
Speaker 4: that division over the Bills. But I think that that team,
Speaker 4: if you really break it down and you look like
Speaker 4: there is there's a lot to like about them. When
Speaker 4: when Tua was on the field last year, that offense hummed,
Speaker 4: and it was like the only time they didn't hum
Speaker 4: was when he was not on the field. And so
Speaker 4: I like that offense a lot, and they still have
Speaker 4: some decent talent on defense, So I do have.
Speaker 2: I do feel like just anecdotally the talking football. Someummer
Speaker 2: that they're the forgotten team, like people have kind of
Speaker 2: just let them slip out of their mind. Maybe it
Speaker 2: is the two a thing whatever within you.
Speaker 4: And I'll tell you Gil, it's like the most underrated
Speaker 4: thing because it's not super sexy. And we talk about
Speaker 4: this a lot, but like they brought in Vic Fangio
Speaker 4: is their defensive coordinator, and you can say whatever you
Speaker 4: want about him as a head coach. We get this
Speaker 4: all the time, Like some dudes are just not built
Speaker 4: to run the whole ship. I want to talk about
Speaker 4: guys that are more respected in a singular position. You'd
Speaker 4: be hard to find more people talk about Vic Fangio
Speaker 4: as a defensive coordinator and like what he can do,
Speaker 4: and so like that guy comes in now to run
Speaker 4: the defense to go along with that offense. Like there's
Speaker 4: always the health concerns, but there's health concerns with every team,
Speaker 4: every person, every everything, So you know you can't go
Speaker 4: in worry about all that.
Speaker 1: I think the Dolphins are the seventh teen NFC.
Speaker 2: Well we'll do AFC around the horn.
Speaker 3: Yeah, AFC, a FC, Bills, Bengals, Jags, Chiefs, your division winners,
Speaker 3: is that everything you said, Matt?
Speaker 1: My wild cards are Ravens, Chargers, Dolphins.
Speaker 2: Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Chiefs. We're all in consensus on division winners. Chargers, Ravens, Dolphins.
Speaker 2: Did I just take yours? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Yeah, we all have the Dolphins. So maybe the.
Speaker 2: AFC is not. Yeah, AFC's not that. This is where
Speaker 2: it's going to be interesting NFC, Matt, you start.
Speaker 3: But I think we me and you both left the
Speaker 3: Browns out and like for me it is it is
Speaker 3: Brown's Dolphins, neck and neck.
Speaker 2: Like right there, I'm with you.
Speaker 4: So on the NFC side of things, division winners Eagles
Speaker 4: in the East, I have that pretty good. Like I
Speaker 4: said I, I have the Vikings. I mean, look, they
Speaker 4: had thirteen wins last year. So you want to tell
Speaker 4: me about all the you want to tell me about
Speaker 4: all the ones, Okay, we'll say you don't get two
Speaker 4: of those. They still had eleven and still end up
Speaker 4: with eleven wins. Eleven wins could could win that division.
Speaker 4: So like I still have the Vikings in the North.
Speaker 4: In the South, it's super boring. I honestly think any
Speaker 4: of the I said this at the top, I would
Speaker 4: not be surprised if any four of these teams were
Speaker 4: to win this division.
Speaker 1: That's the Bucks included, right.
Speaker 4: So that being said, let's go ahead and just stick
Speaker 4: with the Saints because there are at least some stability
Speaker 4: at the quarterback position with the Saints.
Speaker 1: And then in the West, I have the Seahawks. I really,
Speaker 1: I really do. I have the Seahawks in the West.
Speaker 1: So those are the four for me.
Speaker 4: As far as a wild card, I do have the
Speaker 4: forty nine Ers, I do have the Cowboys. And then
Speaker 4: it comes to that seventh spot, and I don't see
Speaker 4: a world in which a second NFC South team gets in,
Speaker 4: so then it has to be one of the other
Speaker 4: North teams, and I'll go ahead and say the Lions,
Speaker 4: though I'm not ruling out it being the Packers at all.
Speaker 4: That would by far be my least confident of any
Speaker 4: of the playoff teams that I put in there would
Speaker 4: be the Lions, because I think it could be the Packers.
Speaker 4: I think it'd be like, it wouldn't shock me if
Speaker 4: it were the Bears, and honest to God, it wouldn't
Speaker 4: shock me if the Commanders of the Giants either. So
Speaker 4: that seventh spot in the n see I think it's
Speaker 4: gonna be really wacky when it all comes down to it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, totally division winners for me.
Speaker 1: See, this is so to any NFC, to some of
Speaker 1: these division winners.
Speaker 3: Why that's why I don't have a bet only any
Speaker 3: of these, any of these top conferences.
Speaker 1: Eagles Cowboys.
Speaker 3: I didn't go either way, but I'll go Eagles Division winner,
Speaker 3: Cowboys are in the playoffs?
Speaker 1: Is a wildcard? Forty nine or Seahawks?
Speaker 3: I think I think the odds where they're at now
Speaker 3: probably are are fair odds. I liked what you know,
Speaker 3: if I could have gotten the number that the Matt got,
Speaker 3: I probably would have sprinkled a little bit on the Seahawks.
Speaker 3: I'll say forty nine Ers Division winner, Seahawks in as
Speaker 3: a wild card. I'd hate to say it, but I
Speaker 3: think the Saints probably win the NFC South. I'd like
Speaker 3: my odds though, on the on the Panthers. That's why
Speaker 3: we have I have a bet on the Panthers. No,
Speaker 3: I'm have bet on the Saints because I think the
Speaker 3: odds are good enough on the Panthers that it makes
Speaker 3: it worth a bet. So I've got that, and then
Speaker 3: Packers Vikings. It's I'm putting those two same things. Ones
Speaker 3: wins the North in one makes it in as a
Speaker 3: wild card, but I think I think the Lions could
Speaker 3: be involved there too. Shoot, I don't even know if
Speaker 3: it'd be shocked if the Bears are. The NFC North
Speaker 3: is up for grabs as well.
Speaker 2: Philly in the East, Nighters in the West. I'll say
Speaker 2: Saints two in the South, even though that's super boring,
Speaker 2: and I am going to say Packers in the North.
Speaker 2: Just for that, we go and then the wild card wound.
Speaker 2: Go Seahawks, Cowboys and the Washington Commos.
Speaker 1: Come on, you gotta stay on brand, Washington Commos.
Speaker 2: I also have an alternate high regular season win total on Washington.
Speaker 2: People know if I if they listen to the show
Speaker 2: long enough, I if they suck, they suck. I am.
Speaker 2: I'm all about piling on. But this is the first
Speaker 2: year a D. Dan Snyder a D so very excited for.
Speaker 4: Listen, listen, listen, mclauren Dotson, Like you know, they got
Speaker 4: like the guy reciverer longest longest Sam Hawi can get
Speaker 4: them the ball, Like, I mean, they're gonna be able
Speaker 4: to They're gonna be able to make some places.
Speaker 2: One of the best defensive fronts, if not the best
Speaker 2: in all of football. They drafted Forbes, who looks good,
Speaker 2: and then the Super Bowl because with Kelly and I
Speaker 2: were talking about exact as, by the way, in baseball
Speaker 2: right now, like we're just talking this morning. I think
Speaker 2: Braves Astros exact is either way are like good prices
Speaker 2: at sixteen and eighteen to one, Braves at sixteen to one,
Speaker 2: to beat the Astros the other way around at eighteen
Speaker 2: to one NFL obviously you're gonna a longer shot right now.
Speaker 2: But if you took what were some of the numbers
Speaker 2: we saw, and like, if you took the uh the.
Speaker 3: Achievement to over the ones, I bet yeah, they're the
Speaker 3: ones you bet. I bet five already, I bet five.
Speaker 3: I bet five about I don't know if you agree
Speaker 3: with this, but I think this is a better year
Speaker 3: than most to play some of these exactness because I
Speaker 3: have such limited.
Speaker 2: If we feel like there's limited teams in the NFC,
Speaker 2: there are limited teams in the NFC that I think
Speaker 2: can actually go there.
Speaker 3: So look, I think there is a Big three, but
Speaker 3: I I have the forty, I have the Eagles and
Speaker 3: the Cowboys. A little bit ahead of where I think
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers are. So I chose those two
Speaker 3: teams to key in on.
Speaker 2: I did it.
Speaker 3: And Eagles over Bengals at fifty two to one and
Speaker 3: Eagles over Chargers one hundred and twenty to one, Cowboys
Speaker 3: over ninety to one, Cowboys over Ravens two hundred, and
Speaker 3: Cowboys over Chargers two.
Speaker 2: These are awesome bets to have.
Speaker 3: In pocket, though how much fun are those bets they
Speaker 3: get to get me to the playoffs with both those
Speaker 3: teams and their funnest phenomenal the one.
Speaker 4: They're talking about these I bets you can get so
Speaker 4: just just real quick to get off on a side,
Speaker 4: like the if you go to DraftKings and you click
Speaker 4: on the division specials and then they have an exact
Speaker 4: order tab in there, Like so if you're super bullish
Speaker 4: on a division winner, and you're super bullish on who's
Speaker 4: going to be last, like you can just bet both
Speaker 4: of the teams in the middle at like these five
Speaker 4: and six to ones or whatever and like guarantee yourself. Well,
Speaker 4: I mean, obviously you can go so, but like you know,
Speaker 4: you would be basically putting your convictions in play. And
Speaker 4: these bets that are like five and six to one,
Speaker 4: and so you know if you really are if you're like, no, absolutely,
Speaker 4: for sure the Jags are gonna win the South and
Speaker 4: for sure, let's just say that you think for sure
Speaker 4: the Texans are going to be dead last or so
Speaker 4: then you can bet the flip flop of the other
Speaker 4: two teams in the middle at like plus three twenty
Speaker 4: five plus four twenty five. Like there's other ones that
Speaker 4: are like five and six to one and somebody that.
Speaker 4: So again you can kind of like explore around with
Speaker 4: some of those things where if you know the first
Speaker 4: in the last, it doesn't really matter what the teams
Speaker 4: are in the middle, Like if you think it's Chiefs
Speaker 4: Raiders and that that you don't really know if it'll
Speaker 4: be Chargers or Broncos. Like it's three to one for
Speaker 4: for Chiefs, Chargers Broncos Raiders, and then it's four to
Speaker 4: one for Chiefs Broncos, Chargers Raiders, right, and so there's
Speaker 4: like all of those Yeah.
Speaker 2: Okay, just to be clear, you're talking order of finish
Speaker 2: in a division, right, Okay, while to figure out what yeah, okay, yeah, gotcha, you.
Speaker 1: Have to bet one through four. So he'd have to
Speaker 1: bet both of those.
Speaker 2: But I hear what you're saying.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, you think it makes sense. Yeah yeah, Just.
Speaker 4: Like if you're confident in the winner and who's going
Speaker 4: to be last, right, and then like you, then you
Speaker 4: can just bet both sides of the of who finishes
Speaker 4: second and third, you're still getting over three to one.
Speaker 4: Like the smallest one that you can play is three
Speaker 4: to one on any of the divisions.
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's a good point. I'm just thinking, what's
Speaker 2: the division that lead off the page? Is what you
Speaker 2: might be the most confident in. I'm guessing most people
Speaker 2: would think it's that Matt doesn't but most people would
Speaker 2: think it's San Francisco, Arizona. Perhaps in the NFC West.
Speaker 2: If you think Chiefs Raiders, the chief Raiders Chiefs or
Speaker 2: Chiefs Raiders, some people think it would be Chiefs Raiders.
Speaker 2: You really think the Raiders are last place in the
Speaker 2: in the a f C.
Speaker 1: I I really do you know?
Speaker 2: I mean, I really is there is? There is? This
Speaker 2: is great? Is there an a f C South Cellar?
Speaker 2: Like you, we love the Jaguars, So the Jaguars will
Speaker 2: be the number one division winner? I think consensus. Is
Speaker 2: there a bottom team in that Division.
Speaker 4: Well, so you would almost play that one, like the
Speaker 4: the varying versions of of like Jags Titans and yeah
Speaker 4: yeah whatever, yeah yeah yeah, something like jack Jags Titans.
Speaker 2: And then.
Speaker 3: Because you could do that NFC East too, Like if
Speaker 3: you're as bullish as me, Eagles Cowboys, you could bet
Speaker 3: both options where it's commanders three jihiens for Giants three commands.
Speaker 2: What was Bengals over Niners and the exactly I would
Speaker 2: play the Bengals over Niners.
Speaker 4: Uh so for me as far as Super Bowl, like, look,
Speaker 4: I'm I could not be higher on this Eagles team.
Speaker 4: I mean, like it is, it's just almost impossible to
Speaker 4: like nitpick other than the fact that they're replacing coordinators.
Speaker 4: But it's like you're replacing coordinators on the most loaded
Speaker 4: team in the NFL, Like that makes the transition a
Speaker 4: lot easier. Whenever you're stepping into the best offensive line
Speaker 4: and the best defensive line and like awesome corners and
Speaker 4: great skill position player, like that makes the transition a
Speaker 4: lot easier than it is for a lot of these
Speaker 4: coordinators that are coming in on all of this. And
Speaker 4: so it's very very hard for me to get past
Speaker 4: the Eagles. So I got the Eagles winning at all,
Speaker 4: and it just kind of is what is on the
Speaker 4: on the AFC side of things, on the SC side
Speaker 4: of things. As long as I as long as like
Speaker 4: the first couple of weeks get by and it looks
Speaker 4: like Joe Burrow is actually Joe Burrow and this calf
Speaker 4: thing is not a lingering thing, then I will say Cincinnati.
Speaker 4: But like, I'm reserving that because these cap injuries can
Speaker 4: be a thing, So I don't want to, like, I
Speaker 4: don't want to like go out on a limb right
Speaker 4: now and say that whenever, so I'll stay I'll say
Speaker 4: Chiefs for now, but I really want to say Cincinnati
Speaker 4: so long as it looks like Joe Burrow's fine.
Speaker 2: And part of me as we're saying this, because like
Speaker 2: I obviously love the Niners too, But part of me
Speaker 2: as we're saying this, I'm thinking, how many times in
Speaker 2: Super Bowl history have we had the same two teams
Speaker 2: play back to back. I know we had the Bills
Speaker 2: and the Cowboys to it. This feels as close to
Speaker 2: a Chief's Eagles repeat. Also because the Eagles. As you're
Speaker 2: talking about the Eagles, man, I'm thinking to myself, I'm
Speaker 2: like They're the kind of team that as soon as
Speaker 2: you watch them for like two drives, you're like, everything
Speaker 2: else that we think is bullshit. They're so good. They're
Speaker 2: so good, and all this other stuff is might just
Speaker 2: be nonsense, and they just keep adding players and that
Speaker 2: Georgia defense. So I guess we close with this. What's
Speaker 2: the consensus opinion that you've heard others have? Like, so,
Speaker 2: you know, we all talk people, we all do shows,
Speaker 2: we all have football guests. What's the opinion you've heard
Speaker 2: over and over again seemingly that you just have the
Speaker 2: hardest time buying into where You're like, how come everybody
Speaker 2: keep saying this is gonna happen? And I just don't
Speaker 2: buy it at all? What's that we'll leave on that?
Speaker 4: Yeah, mineus that this Baltimore Ravens pass game is just
Speaker 4: going to be exponentially better like that, Like all I
Speaker 4: keep hearing is, oh, well, Lamar Lamar wants to throw more.
Speaker 1: Well, great, cool that Lamar wants to throw more.
Speaker 4: Well, Lamar didn't call the place, you know, I mean,
Speaker 4: you know, like Lamar I di can call the play.
Speaker 1: Well, that's great. You know, he's also done extremely well.
Speaker 2: He also doesn't how can I put this excel Yeah.
Speaker 1: You brought it? Oh Noell, I mean we have any idea.
Speaker 1: I mean we don't.
Speaker 2: We don't.
Speaker 4: He might be like everyone's just like, oh this offense,
Speaker 4: h Todd Monk and whatever. It's like, I am not
Speaker 4: buying into the fact that, like, oh, just just because
Speaker 4: Lamar said he wants to throw more and and Todd
Speaker 4: moncan this is going to be a great passing offense
Speaker 4: and it's not even gonna resum but what we've seen
Speaker 4: in the past, well, guess what, Like your best weapon
Speaker 4: is the fact that your quarterback is it's gobile. It's
Speaker 4: like he can create all this stuff on his own.
Speaker 4: So like you would almost be doing yourself a disservice
Speaker 4: if you do not run the offense the way that
Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson is best suited. So for me, it's that
Speaker 4: this like pass game for the for the Ravens is
Speaker 4: gonna be like just blow us away.
Speaker 2: This is an excellent man. I never say what an
Speaker 2: excellent question I've just said, But this is this actually
Speaker 2: has me thinking because I can think of one.
Speaker 1: I think you know exactly where I'm going.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be the same as mine.
Speaker 1: Patriots.
Speaker 2: Oh no, no, no, no, no, no, that wasn't so consensus,
Speaker 2: was it.
Speaker 3: Okay, it's maybe not consensus, it's not consensus. But I
Speaker 3: have heard way more Patriots lost. Yes, I was ever expecting.
Speaker 1: And that includes season long, includes week one because well.
Speaker 2: We just we just heard doctor Bob has one NFL
Speaker 2: pick week one. He's like Patriots and the points at the.
Speaker 1: Eagles, and I think, but no, no, no, they're at home.
Speaker 2: They're at home.
Speaker 1: Oh at home, yeah're at home, right, But I mean, I.
Speaker 3: Think the bet that I've got closest to making so far,
Speaker 3: well was the Seahawk yesterday, but since then it would
Speaker 3: be the Eagles.
Speaker 1: If a three pops, I'll lay of the Eagles, I'll
Speaker 1: play with three of.
Speaker 2: The three will last for a second and a half exactly.
Speaker 3: So I look, all due respect to JVT. I know
Speaker 3: he loves the Patriots. Patriots this year too. I've just
Speaker 3: been if you want to tell me, you're like, eh,
Speaker 3: I don't really know what this Patriot seems gonna be
Speaker 3: there in a tough division, like I think they could
Speaker 3: be a little bit.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm okay with that.
Speaker 3: Some of these people that are like that think they're
Speaker 3: a legit playoff team.
Speaker 1: I just I can't get there with them.
Speaker 2: Mine is and I don't. Again, this is in the
Speaker 2: league's worst division. So might it end up manifesting? Sure,
Speaker 2: I guess they could. But the universal at least it
Speaker 2: seems like the universal love for the Atlanta Falcons from
Speaker 2: like a million guests this offseason is the one that
Speaker 2: troubles me.
Speaker 3: That do you feel like that simmered down a bit
Speaker 3: a little? I thought about that a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 2: I just don't know how you immediately think Desmond Ridder
Speaker 2: is going to be good. I just don't. I can't
Speaker 2: make that leap, I guess, is what I'm saying. So
Speaker 2: I just like, where are we doing this? Why does
Speaker 2: everybody have this opinion? So I just want to slow
Speaker 2: everybody's role on that, at least in my head, because
Speaker 2: I keep every time that came up, I'm like, why
Speaker 2: is this? Yeah, we all get together and decides. But
Speaker 2: that was kind of the deal on the Lions if
Speaker 2: you remember last offseason, and it took half the season
Speaker 2: to actually finally kick in right, and then it did
Speaker 2: and they ended up with the season win to lover
Speaker 2: Bol when they're like one in six to begin the season.
Speaker 2: I believe so.
Speaker 3: And that was a great point, you know from from
Speaker 3: Mark here, who we've all talked to a million times,
Speaker 3: but I remember him last summer, right, he was really
Speaker 3: big on.
Speaker 1: The Lions, on what he thought they could do last
Speaker 1: last season.
Speaker 3: And when we talked to him just a couple of
Speaker 3: weeks ago, he was kind of mentioned like, hey, all
Speaker 3: that love that I had for that team is reflected
Speaker 3: in the odds this year, and I can't it's even
Speaker 3: swung too far for him where He's like, I can't
Speaker 3: even get get on that train because the odds have
Speaker 3: swung too far.
Speaker 2: All right, I think we covered Is anything else we
Speaker 2: didn't cover of? Note, like you leave on got all
Speaker 2: my bets?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean anything you've bet for Week one?
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good question. What's your survivor play?
Speaker 1: Tell us? Yeah, you know what, I haven't. I haven't
Speaker 1: even decided that yet. Yeah, I haven't even I haven't
Speaker 1: even decided that yet. Where I'm gonna go with all that?
Speaker 4: No, I honestly, my Week one the only thing I
Speaker 4: have in the account as of as of right now.
Speaker 1: I did take.
Speaker 4: I took the Eagles at four on the road. I
Speaker 4: guess against the Patriots, like it. Just as soon as
Speaker 4: the number came out, like I just I took it.
Speaker 4: It went to four and a half.
Speaker 1: Now it's back.
Speaker 4: I mean, hell, now it's down to three and a half,
Speaker 4: which I don't know. Maybe I'm on the wrong side here,
Speaker 4: But prove it to me. I guess, like, I mean,
Speaker 4: you know whatever, prove it to me. I guess I don't.
Speaker 4: I think that Juju Smith Schuster was a product of
Speaker 4: having the best quarterback in the NFL throwing the ball
Speaker 4: all season long. So now he's gonna be catching passes
Speaker 4: for mac Jones. Good luck with that, you know. I mean, like,
Speaker 4: I'm just I'm not buying into any of that, any
Speaker 4: of that stuff. So I think the Eagles go in
Speaker 4: and thump them.
Speaker 2: I do too, I did to. Well, Bob's thing was
Speaker 2: about like, oh it was Matt Patricia, Joe Judge and
Speaker 2: all that shit.
Speaker 3: I mean, the consensus argument is that there's gonna be
Speaker 3: a there is a massive gap in what your coordinators
Speaker 3: were from last year to this year.
Speaker 1: I get that. I understand that.
Speaker 4: But Dan though Bill O'Brien has gone through the Nick
Speaker 4: Saban rehabilitation programs, so there is like we know, but
Speaker 4: as far.
Speaker 3: As I know, Bill O'Brien isn't taking snaps under center.
Speaker 3: So like, I think that still applies, and I think
Speaker 3: there's a lot of people that feel because of the coordinators,
Speaker 3: what you saw Mac Jones two years ago and what
Speaker 3: you saw them last year, he's probably somewhere in between
Speaker 3: or closer to.
Speaker 1: The year one, which I think that all makes sense.
Speaker 3: But as we've talked about here, I think you're stuck
Speaker 3: in a very tough division. I think it's still a
Speaker 3: very big, uphill climbed ass this team to do a
Speaker 3: whole lot.
Speaker 2: All right, So this year we're pumped because, by the way,
Speaker 2: Kelly and I do a show called The Numbers Game
Speaker 2: on vsin seven to nine Pacific, seven am to nine
Speaker 2: am Pacific money through Friday ten to noon Eastern, but
Speaker 2: this year on Fridays, Friday morning. If you like this,
Speaker 2: this kind of banter between the three of us, we're
Speaker 2: doing not one, not two, but three segments with Matt
Speaker 2: Brown each and every Friday morning. So right as you
Speaker 2: go into your NFL weekends, uh and uh, correct me
Speaker 2: if I'm wrong. Now this will be in the first hour,
Speaker 2: the DK Network hour. But ten, fifteen, ten thirty, ten
Speaker 2: forty five, So from ten to fifteen to eleven eastern,
Speaker 2: seven fifteen to eight am Pacific, each and every Friday morning,
Speaker 2: the three of us talking nothing but National Football League.
Speaker 2: Cannot wait, and you'll actually be here for that, right,
Speaker 2: you'll come down here.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna be sitting at the big table with you guys,
Speaker 4: and we're gonna yeah, we're gonna be we're gonna be
Speaker 4: rocking it. And haters get ready. I mean, I mean,
Speaker 4: just seriously, I get those angry tweets ready, like I
Speaker 4: can't wait.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be can't wait.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be awesome, and maybe we'll actually get field
Speaker 2: goal kicks and spray tan. The spraytan thing is great.
Speaker 4: The ball listen, the ball is now in Kelly's court.
Speaker 4: This is this is it's you, buddy, buddy.
Speaker 2: The thing is like he's I can tell now I
Speaker 2: know he does, but like he's being sincere. Now he
Speaker 2: will actually do the poll. It's bullshit, exactly complete bullshit.
Speaker 1: Is Matt Brown?
Speaker 2: Always shit? Is it is?
Speaker 4: It's in your you agree that the spring tend We're
Speaker 4: going out there. We'll got there this weekend. Kelly let's
Speaker 4: go the holiday.
Speaker 2: And then outside of Friday, Matt, where can people hear you?
Speaker 1: Uh, We're gonna be on the handle, me and Mike Sommitch.
Speaker 4: Actually for this NFL season four to seven, four to
Speaker 4: seven Pacific, seven to ten Eastern Saturdays will be a
Speaker 4: big NFL preview. We also have the Contest Show, so
Speaker 4: we'll be talking about the contest, entries and things like
Speaker 4: that that go on. And then on Sunday we'll lead
Speaker 4: you into Sunday Night Football. We'll talk some Monday Night
Speaker 4: football and then by then the odds for the next
Speaker 4: week will be coming out, so we'll be looking at
Speaker 4: those as well.
Speaker 2: Nice you guys do your under promoted golf podcast during
Speaker 2: the NFL season or no.
Speaker 1: I don't.
Speaker 4: It's hard for me to bet golf in the fall.
Speaker 4: Kelly might bet a little bit of golf in the fall.
Speaker 3: Would you like me to translate that We're not going
Speaker 3: to see a lot of Matt.
Speaker 1: It's going to be mainly me and West. Yeah. I
Speaker 1: think that Matt will be there for the Ryder Cup special.
Speaker 2: And alright, Matt sending sending your invoice?
Speaker 1: Yeah sounds good? All right, coming in had a cocktail
Speaker 1: for you behind me, for.
Speaker 2: Poor mad Brown, for Kelly Biman, good luck with all
Speaker 2: your best. Can't wait for the NFL season to start.
Speaker 2: Thank you for listening.