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Speaker 1: went eight hundred gambler And now let's start the show.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen thirty five Horny Cony five.

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Speaker 1: Fifty chickus block College Football World stundar.

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Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, he stumble the football. The lateral turn

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Speaker 3: a counter on the job, get you the lab table

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Speaker 3: off the field to night. It's not the sides of

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Speaker 3: the dog in the fight. It's the sides of the

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Speaker 3: fight in the dog. What's off the Genner Nation? Welcome

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Speaker 3: to the Big Bets on Campus podcast presented by win Bet.

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Speaker 3: This is the Week zero betting preview. I'm stucky with

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Speaker 3: me as always as Colin Wilson. Ready to talk some

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Speaker 3: minor Nation, picks up some fcs and recap our favorite

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Speaker 3: winds and futures.

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Speaker 2: Hi, you be more excited. You're an Illinois T shirt,

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Speaker 2: which is going to bring out all this Brett Beilama

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Speaker 2: love out of me. I've got a Nebraska helmet behind me,

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Speaker 2: where our own Brett McMurphy, you know, put some news

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Speaker 2: down that forced Trev Alberts and Scott Frost have probably

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Speaker 2: the most cringe worthy press conference I've ever seen in

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Speaker 2: my entire life. I've got a UTEP helmet behind me

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Speaker 2: because we love them so much. I'm positive they're going

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Speaker 2: to go over their season win total week zero and

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Speaker 2: we haven't even talked about the UCLA yet. Week zero.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we're just getting just a little slice of

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Speaker 2: cake of how wonderful I think this college football season

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Speaker 2: is going to be.

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Speaker 3: Oh, thank you, That's exactly the response I'm looking for. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: there's only four games, plus a couple fcskins which we

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Speaker 3: will touch on. We will also, as I mentioned earlier,

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Speaker 3: spend some time recapping our favorite futures and wind totals.

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Speaker 3: Let us run down quickly each conference and just reel

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Speaker 3: off some of our favorite ones for you. We will

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Speaker 3: also now catch up with now a car Kalli. Very

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Speaker 3: exciting news. If you haven't heard, Brett McMurphy, I would say,

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Speaker 3: the most well known in my favorite college football reporter

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Speaker 3: in all of the land joined the Action Network full time.

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Speaker 3: If you recall one of the previews, if you listened

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Speaker 3: to one of our previews. By the way, we have

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Speaker 3: a group of five preview pac twelve every for every

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Speaker 3: conference out there. If you haven't listened and want to

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Speaker 3: catch up on the teams, all those episodes are out

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Speaker 3: there Big Bets on Campus podcast wherever you listen to

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Speaker 3: your podcast. But when we had them on one of

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Speaker 3: the first episodes, you said, I hope you have me

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Speaker 3: on more than once. Well, we're gonna have him on

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Speaker 3: many times because he's now a colleague and excited to

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Speaker 3: have you on. I am a man of my word.

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Speaker 3: Welcome back to the podcast, mister McMurphy.

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Speaker 4: So instead of like a one years stand, does that

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Speaker 4: mean like we're dating now?

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Speaker 5: Are we getting serious? Is that what you're telling me?

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Speaker 3: We are going steady? Remember I remember that back in

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Speaker 3: like Saved by the Bell watching that are think I'm

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Speaker 3: steady now but now very happy to have you here.

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Speaker 3: If you don't follow right on Twitter, make sure you

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Speaker 3: do for all the breaking news. Let's catch me up

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Speaker 3: first and our listeners. What is the latest on I'm

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Speaker 3: at the point where I'm so involved and just doing

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Speaker 3: so much with getting ready for the season that I

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Speaker 3: just don't have time to pay attention with what's going

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Speaker 3: on with this alliance of the Big the Big ten

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Speaker 3: and the in the PAC twelve. And there was just

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Speaker 3: some meeting where I didn't and I was like, what

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Speaker 3: is happening? Can you catch us up on what's going

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Speaker 3: on there?

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Speaker 4: Becky, you didn't miss anything. I'm being serious. I don't

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Speaker 4: know what the hell they're doing. They had a press conference,

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Speaker 4: they didn't provide any concrete details. They say they want

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Speaker 4: to do future scheduling. They could have done that without

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Speaker 4: an alliance. Basically, this is a shot at the SEC

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Speaker 4: and you know, look, I know people in all those conferences,

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Speaker 4: at all those schools. I respect them. I think they're

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Speaker 4: really smart people. But everyone I talked to inside and

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Speaker 4: outside of those three conferences said, why in the world

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Speaker 4: do you have a press conference when you have no

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Speaker 4: concrete details? And oh, by the way, they're all hypocritical,

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Speaker 4: because if Oklahoma Texas would have knocked on Kevin Warren's

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Speaker 4: door to go to the Big Ten or Jim Phillips

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Speaker 4: to go to the ACC, they all would have said, absolutely,

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Speaker 4: let's do it. But they're acting like they're doing this

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Speaker 4: for the good of college football, YadA, YadA, YadA. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: you did not miss anything. It's it's basically a power

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Speaker 4: play on their end. But all it does, in my

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Speaker 4: opinion and a lot of other people's, they're trying to

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Speaker 4: show that they're more powerful than the SEC. I think

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Speaker 4: they're doing the opposite. They're showing that the SEC by

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Speaker 4: itself is as powerful as three conferences. They're not going

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Speaker 4: to merge together. They're not going to be one conference

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Speaker 4: where we see future games between some of these conference members.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, but you don't need to be an alliance to

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Speaker 5: do that. So that's basically it.

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Speaker 3: In a nutshell, I'm missing, I think, so I'm happy

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Speaker 3: I've got Tom.

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Speaker 2: I'll let everybody listen to the favorites. I know you

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Speaker 2: went on Chad Show shameless plug on the Chad Show

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Speaker 2: to talk about the new Bowl structure, about how the

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Speaker 2: Bowls have just changed so much. The bull ties that

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Speaker 2: used to be don't really exist anymore. So I think

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Speaker 2: you've been so good at making Bowl projections. How are

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Speaker 2: you going to do that this year when ESPN really

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Speaker 2: just kind of pulls names out of a hat to

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Speaker 2: draw TV ratings, And how are you even going to

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Speaker 2: project any of this when there's so many open questions

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Speaker 2: about bull tize this year?

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Speaker 4: I mean, you're right call. And there's twelve Bowls that

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Speaker 4: basically the ESPN will determine from the five group of

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Speaker 4: five conferences who goes to those games, So you can't

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Speaker 4: automatically say, hey, we're going to have a MAC.

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Speaker 5: Team in this game against against Conference USA.

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Speaker 4: We literally don't know. So look, they did it for

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Speaker 4: two reasons. One, it provides them more flexibility over the

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Speaker 4: five year period of the current Bowl contract. That makes

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Speaker 4: a lot of sense. The number two reason they did it,

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Speaker 4: and I think actually it's the number one reason because

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Speaker 4: they want to They want to lower my accuracy percentage

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Speaker 4: in projecting bold projections. So they did it just to

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Speaker 4: screw me. But I'll find a way, somehow, some way

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Speaker 4: to get these things lined up when we get.

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Speaker 2: The I think they're just trying to stop all the

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Speaker 2: bitching with the damn Pinstripe Bowl because everybody's upset that

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Speaker 2: they don't in the acc when they get hopped over

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Speaker 2: and picked over and somebody goes to the pen Strike

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Speaker 2: Bowl and somebody else has to go to the Quicklaying Bowl.

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Speaker 4: That happens in every there's a bowl in every conference

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Speaker 4: where privately they're like, we don't want to go to

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Speaker 4: that one.

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Speaker 3: Bud on to this regular season, a lot of people

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Speaker 3: are gonna have questions about the virus and what happens

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Speaker 3: as far as vaccination rates, and you know, the Big

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Speaker 3: Ten came out and said, if you know one team

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Speaker 3: you can't play because of COVID and they didn't have

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Speaker 3: a certain vaccination rate, then it's going to be a forfeit.

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Speaker 3: How are you looking at or what is the status

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Speaker 3: of like trying to get team vaccination levels across the country.

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Speaker 3: Any insight there, Yes.

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Speaker 4: Juckie, it's it's a brick wall, it really is. I

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Speaker 4: tried when I was at SEC media days in Birmingham

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Speaker 4: last month. They were some coaches would get up there

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Speaker 4: and announce, you know, hey, were it seventy percent vaccination

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Speaker 4: rate or were at eighty or whatever the number was, and.

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Speaker 5: The ones that didn't say anything.

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Speaker 4: I would talk to different sources is at the schools

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Speaker 4: and the conferences, and they're like, sorry, we cannot share

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Speaker 4: this information. So I'm afraid if you're trying to get

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Speaker 4: an edge on that, good luck, because they are keeping

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Speaker 4: that tight to the best because you're right, you know,

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Speaker 4: if you know that a team's gonna have a lot

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Speaker 4: of a lot of players out, certainly that would be

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Speaker 4: an advantage. But the one difference this year compared with

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Speaker 4: last year, if a team can't play because of COVID,

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Speaker 4: like you mentioned, and this is this. This is the

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Speaker 4: rule for all the power leagues, and I'm sure the

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Speaker 4: Group of five also, you forfeit the game. It's a

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Speaker 4: loss in the standings the ACC though, if both teams

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Speaker 4: cannot play because of COVID, it's a no contest as

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Speaker 4: far as the standings, So as far as any any

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Speaker 4: bets that anybody has it's going to be if you're

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Speaker 4: not gonna win your bet if there's a note, if

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Speaker 4: there's not a game played, obviously, how will that impact

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Speaker 4: win totals and all that.

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Speaker 5: I read the fight in print.

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Speaker 4: I'm sure it says you've got to play all twelve

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Speaker 4: games or whatever the number unless you're playing conference totals.

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Speaker 4: But there is the incentive now that if you want

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Speaker 4: to go to the playoff, if you want to compete

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Speaker 4: for your conference championship, you better have your team completely vaccinated.

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Speaker 5: And Mississippi is a great example.

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Speaker 4: And I you know, I absolutely do not care about

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Speaker 4: what anybody's political affiliations are, but these are the facts.

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Speaker 4: The state of Mississippi has under forty percent or thirty

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Speaker 4: percent the entire population has been vaccinated. The ole miss

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Speaker 4: football program has one hundred percent vaccination rate. Because that's

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Speaker 4: how important it is to Lane Kiffin to make sure

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Speaker 4: that they can play every game. I think you're going

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Speaker 4: to see a lot more schools do that. And there's

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Speaker 4: even some schools Ohio State the latest saying that you

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Speaker 4: can't even attend school if you're not vaccinated. So stucky,

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Speaker 4: hopefully we're not going to see cancelations this year because

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Speaker 4: of that, because last year it was it was such

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Speaker 4: a cluster and there were so many moving parts, and

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Speaker 4: it just became accepted. If you can't play, oh, that's okay,

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Speaker 4: we'll reschedule you later in the year.

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Speaker 5: That not happening this season.

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Speaker 3: I better believe if Ohio State has an outbreak and

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Speaker 3: can't play, the other teams as an outbreak as well,

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Speaker 3: even if they don't.

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Speaker 2: Greg, thank you, the commissioner of the SEC. I think

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Speaker 2: you hit the nail on the head. You're gonna lose

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Speaker 2: TV revenue if your team is the one that has

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Speaker 2: to cause the forfeit. I mean that is a sent

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Speaker 2: of enough for all these teams to get their houses

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Speaker 2: in order, and not to pick on this team, even

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Speaker 2: though you're on the podcast, not to pick on these guys.

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Speaker 2: But as I'm doing research on Nebraska Illinois, it seems

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Speaker 2: like I can't get a clear answer out of the

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Speaker 2: corn Huskers for whether it's trev Albert statements or Scott

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Speaker 2: Frost statements that we're going to have COVID information soon.

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Speaker 2: This comes after a report in late July where Scott

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Speaker 2: Frost said they were below sixty percent. So would you

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Speaker 2: think at this point that it's just a public relations

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Speaker 2: nightmare if we haven't heard about COVID rates or is

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Speaker 2: it just you know, there actually are problems and we

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Speaker 2: don't know about them yet.

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Speaker 4: There could be problems, and I'm not picking on Nebraska specifically,

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Speaker 4: there could be problems that we don't know about it.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Auburn coach Brian Harson, you know, tested positive

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Speaker 4: for COVID just the other day. Now he hasn't said

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Speaker 4: if he's vaccinated or not. You can test positive and

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Speaker 4: if you are vaccinated that can happen. But again, believe me,

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Speaker 4: the first team that has to forfeit because of COVID

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Speaker 4: is going to get zero point zero percent sympathy from

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Speaker 4: anybody about this because they've been beaten over the head

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Speaker 4: by everybody in their conference, by people nationally that if

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Speaker 4: you want to play, you can't have COVID.

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Speaker 5: That's that's the way it works.

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Speaker 4: And basically because of the contact tracing and all that,

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Speaker 4: so you've hit on something. It will be a pr nightmare.

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Speaker 4: The first team that has to cancel. And you mentioned

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Speaker 4: the SEC sources told me they are considering. This is

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Speaker 4: something no other conference has done. They haven't decided yet,

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Speaker 4: they are considering if a school has to forfeit a

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Speaker 4: game because of COVID reasons, they would be actually fined

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Speaker 4: financially to have to compensate for some of the lost

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Speaker 4: TV revenue they're going to get from not being able

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Speaker 4: to televise that game. No other conference is doing that.

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Speaker 3: All right, Breg, we're not going to keep yourselves as

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Speaker 3: we're going to have you on so often this year.

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Speaker 3: But before we get you out of here, this is

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Speaker 3: our Week zero betting preview, and you know, favorite preseason

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Speaker 3: bets recap. The people are demanding that you throw out

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Speaker 3: one of your favorite bets. Could be a future it

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Speaker 3: could be a win total, could be anything, could be

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Speaker 3: a homer bet. You got anything for the people.

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Speaker 4: So that's plural more than one. I'm impressed the people

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Speaker 4: want it, the people get it. The utah Utes plus

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Speaker 4: five point fifty to win the Pac twelve.

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Speaker 2: Did you say ut Yeah.

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Speaker 4: They're toughest road games at USC They're off the week

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Speaker 4: before that game. They get Oregon at home. Charlie Brewer

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Speaker 4: in upgrade at quarterback compared with last year.

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Speaker 5: And I like the Utes.

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Speaker 4: Kyle Whittingham plays a physical style of offense. They've got

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Speaker 4: those huge defensive linemen that you usually only see in

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Speaker 4: the SEC.

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Speaker 5: So I am going with the utes.

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Speaker 3: Collin's over here celebrating, so he agrees that his pick.

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Speaker 3: I'm hoping it's Arizona State, but we do think it's

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Speaker 3: going to be one of the teams from that division.

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Speaker 3: So good stuff there, Brett. We will have you on

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Speaker 3: all season on the podcast. Very happy to have you

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Speaker 3: here as a part of the Action Network family. Thanks

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Speaker 3: for joining us, and we'll speak soon.

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Speaker 5: Looking forward to it all.

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Speaker 2: Right, before we.

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Speaker 3: Dive into week' zero, head back to that vaccination. I

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Speaker 3: think the podcast is brought to you by win Bet

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Speaker 3: And now I'll tell you what I've been keeping track.

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Speaker 3: Just it's very difficult thing to do. But the teams

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Speaker 3: that I find out that are like ninety five one

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Speaker 3: hundred percent that that do report it because you don't

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Speaker 3: have to, then I'm like, okay, they're not at risk now.

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Speaker 3: But the one you know, when you get a report

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Speaker 3: that someone's sixty seventy percent, you don't know if it's outdated.

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Speaker 3: You can get a report and then two days later

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Speaker 3: you know you have thirty kids go get their second shot.

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Speaker 3: You don't know any of this. There's no transparency, but

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Speaker 3: at least you you know for some teams you're like, okay,

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Speaker 3: there are one hundred percent of active, then you know

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Speaker 3: that you can say all right and crossing them off

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Speaker 3: the list of a lower risk of having you know,

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Speaker 3: a game potentially postponed. From a win total perspective, always

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Speaker 3: check your book to see how they're handling if their

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Speaker 3: game does get forfeited or no contest. What is win

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Speaker 3: Bett doing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I talked to win bet today and they're just

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Speaker 2: saying that the ticket will say you have to play

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Speaker 2: twelve games for your skif for your wind total to

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Speaker 2: count for you to cash it. Now, if you don't

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Speaker 2: play twelve games, you take that ticket back and it's

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Speaker 2: considered a push and you'll get your money back. That's huge.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that's the best case scenario that you can

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Speaker 2: hope for. Because there have been a ton of books

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Speaker 2: and I've been I've lost money because of this. Not

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Speaker 2: because of COVID, but back in the days of hurricanes

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Speaker 2: canceling games and then your overticket or you're underticket doesn't

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Speaker 2: get canceled, it just plays out. So it's really big

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Speaker 2: by wind Bet to say, you know, you have to

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Speaker 2: play twelve games, which kind of leaves open interpretation. Last

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Speaker 2: year we saw BYU and Coastal Carolina play a game

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Speaker 2: on the fly, and you have to wonder, like, even

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Speaker 2: if a team forfeits, how quickly can they put a

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Speaker 2: game together? Is UMass available? Is an FCS team available? So,

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Speaker 2: but win bets rules are if you play twelve games,

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Speaker 2: that ticket is live.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, as you said, the days of hurricanes, Remember those days,

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Speaker 3: the good old days, and we only had to worry

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Speaker 3: about hurricanes and not global viruses. So let's get to

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Speaker 3: actual games. It's another fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 2: Let's check out the marquee matchups.

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Speaker 3: We'll all end up bedding. I mean, it's the excitement

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Speaker 3: in the air is I can feel it. I'm just

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Speaker 3: about to say a line in a game. It's going

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Speaker 3: to take place in a couple of days, and we're

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Speaker 3: going to talk about it. This is why you all

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Speaker 3: come here and why we have been doing this for

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Speaker 3: five years. We love it. It's just a little teaser.

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Speaker 3: There's only four FBS versus FBS matchups, but it's nice

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Speaker 3: to talk college football again. Let's start with the first

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Speaker 3: game on Saturday. It's a conference matchup. Probably the marquee

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Speaker 3: game of the day. Nebraska at Illinois.

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Speaker 5: Nebraska.

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Speaker 2: Honestly, it's not for everyone.

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Speaker 3: At win Bet. Nebraska's a seven point favorite total sitting

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Speaker 3: at fifty five. The past two seasons, Nebraska didn't look

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Speaker 3: too good against Illinois. They escaped with a forty two

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Speaker 3: to thirty eight win two years ago. In the game

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Speaker 3: they out they out gained Illinois by I think like

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Speaker 3: three hundred and fifty yards. Last year, double digit favorite,

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Speaker 3: disastrous start, special teams, then a turnover, and then just

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Speaker 3: never led. Illinois never looked back and pretty much dominated

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Speaker 3: the game. And that, you know, that game last year

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Speaker 3: kind of summed up this Scott frost airity's gone on

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Speaker 3: year four. But just mental mistakes, penalties, turnovers and those

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Speaker 3: two games against Illinois they turned the ball over nine times.

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Speaker 3: Last year's they only forced one turnover, you know. So

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Speaker 3: it's there's just you know, special teams blunders. So Nebraska

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Speaker 3: is sitting at seven point favorite here on the road.

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Speaker 3: It is the start of the Brett bi Lama era

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Speaker 3: in Illinois. You know that he wants to have a

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Speaker 3: power rushing attack. Got some town on the offensive line.

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Speaker 3: Brandon Peters back at quarterback, some questions at receiver Nebraska.

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Speaker 3: I think their defense is going to be the strongest

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Speaker 3: part of their team. Adrian Martinez is back at quarterback,

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Speaker 3: but he loses his best receiver in Wandel Robinson. Major

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Speaker 3: questions on the offensive line where it looks like two

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Speaker 3: freshman tackles in a freshman guard will start turmoil with Nebraska.

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Speaker 3: It's a very intriguing first game to kick off the

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty one season with a big ten matchup. What

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Speaker 3: do you see here?

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Speaker 2: Well, I think I'm going to start off field and

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Speaker 2: then I'll go into the x's and o's and on

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Speaker 2: the field and then talk about if there's any value

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Speaker 2: in the market. I think there is value in the market,

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Speaker 2: but you know, we'll have to kind of dive deep

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Speaker 2: into this and listen. It all starts with Brett's story

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Speaker 2: about the violations that Nebraska is under, and I think

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Speaker 2: what that did is it exposed the relationship between Trev Alberts,

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Speaker 2: the new athletic director, and Scott for if you haven't

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Speaker 2: seen the video, it's just it's cringe worthy. Scott Frost

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Speaker 2: is he looks very much like he doesn't want to

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Speaker 2: be there, like per a child that's been scolded in

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Speaker 2: the principal's office. Trev Alberts is very looking, very politician like.

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Speaker 3: Scott, and I wanted to just spend a couple of

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Speaker 3: minutes with you.

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Speaker 2: There is an NC double A investigation.

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Speaker 3: Our coaches, including Coach Frost, had done a great job

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Speaker 3: and have been very accessible.

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Speaker 2: And working with the NC double A.

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Speaker 3: So this is an ongoing investigation, obviously.

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Speaker 2: And the key line from the entire press conference was

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Speaker 2: Trev saying this predates my hire. I predate your arrival

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Speaker 2: as it does predate my arrival. Were you aware? Why

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Speaker 2: did you do?

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Speaker 3: I became aware of it after I started.

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Speaker 2: That's not a good thing to be standing next to

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Speaker 2: your boss, and here's something like that going on. I

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Speaker 2: think the relationship between the two, not to say frosty

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Speaker 2: with Scott Frost, but Scott Frost was quoted as saying

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Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago that I feel like the

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Speaker 2: Charlie Daniels band. I used to be a pretty big

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Speaker 2: thing and now I'm just playing county fairs. The mindset

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Speaker 2: of Scott Frost is not the same guy that was

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Speaker 2: undefeated in Central Florida. So you know, off the field

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Speaker 2: there are things like this happening, and you know, I

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Speaker 2: think it's very important for you know, everybody to realize

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Speaker 2: that not only is that going on with Scott Frost,

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Speaker 2: but also the COVID thing. They will not give up

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Speaker 2: what's going on with their COVID numbers. They've announced at

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Speaker 2: the end of July that they weren't they were under

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Speaker 2: sixty percent. I keep that in the back of my mind.

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Speaker 2: You know, Illinois good to go from a COVID standpoint.

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Speaker 2: I think Beielms said he only has one player on

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Speaker 2: the travel roster that's not vaccinated. They're all good to go.

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Speaker 2: But staying on the Nebraska side, as I get a

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Speaker 2: little bit closer to the field, Scott Frost wanted Big

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Speaker 2: Ten refs on the field throughout practice. He's had them

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Speaker 2: there every other day, and just two days ago, one

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Speaker 2: week ago Nebraska scrimmage, the Big Ten officials were there.

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Speaker 2: Scott Frost afterwards said, I was frustrated today. Too many

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Speaker 2: flags on the ground, too many mistakes. There's just you know,

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Speaker 2: there's a flag on every single play. And I think

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Speaker 2: if you're also you know, we're getting into the game

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Speaker 2: plan here. They're looking for a way for somebody to

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Speaker 2: run the ball on offense that is not Adrian Martinez.

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Speaker 2: Adrian Martinez has been a fumble machine, and they're looking

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Speaker 2: for somebody out of this backfield, whether it's Marquee Steppe

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Speaker 2: transferring from USC, you know, but ultimately Martinez is their

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Speaker 2: best weapon and also the reason why they lose some games.

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Speaker 2: It's pre previous games against Illinois, he's had a sixty

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Speaker 2: eight percent completion rate. He's gone for six hundred and

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Speaker 2: sixty one yards three tds through the air, two hundred

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Speaker 2: on the ground. But he's fumbled a handful of times.

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Speaker 2: He's had interceptions, and he seems to do this all

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Speaker 2: the time. And now at this point after three years,

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Speaker 2: he's had thirty two career fumbles. So when you lay

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Speaker 2: a bed on Nebraska, you're really crossing your fingers that

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Speaker 2: Adrian Martinez is not going to fumble the ball. Because

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Speaker 2: Stuck's right. The defense here is excellent for Nebraska. This

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Speaker 2: is what's going to hold the team up front, seven

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Speaker 2: back seven. I have no problems from a Nebraska point

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Speaker 2: of view. It really just comes down to undisciplined flags,

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Speaker 2: Adrian Martinez and fumbles. None of that has seemed to

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Speaker 2: go away, and the Scott Frost game plan is just

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Speaker 2: not working more the same.

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Speaker 3: I like the Nebraska linebackers. They have a lot of

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Speaker 3: talent at that position. This defense has the potential to

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Speaker 3: kind of remind you at times the of the Black

435
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 3: Shirts if everything comes together. Taylor britt is an excellent

436
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,439
Speaker 3: lockdown corner. They have two super seniors at safeties. But

437
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 3: the secondary I don't think is really going to come

438
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,199
Speaker 3: into play here. I mean it's a big mismatch. I mean,

439
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 3: NEILINOI their receiving corps is leads a lot to be desired.

440
00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:39,479
Speaker 3: They moved Isaiah Williams out the receiver, their quarterback from

441
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,360
Speaker 3: last year. It's just not gonna be Look, they're gonna

442
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 3: use a lot of two tight en sets. They're gonna

443
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 3: try to run the ball.

444
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 2: You know.

445
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 3: The thing that keeps I keep going back to Nebraska

446
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 3: does be they need to force more turnovers. They're minus

447
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 3: fifteen turnover margin last year, and part of that is

448
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 3: they turn it over too much. And they're also not

449
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 3: forcing turnovers. And their defensive their defensive line isn't getting

450
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 3: into the backfield. But from a run defense perspective, they

451
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,400
Speaker 3: should match up pretty well here. But I just can't

452
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:03,879
Speaker 3: get out of my head that game has you only

453
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,919
Speaker 3: won forty one to twenty three. This Illinois offense was

454
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 3: bad last year, bad and they ran the ball fifty

455
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 3: two times for two hundred and eighty five yards five

456
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:17,119
Speaker 3: and a half yards per rush. So is that and

457
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,400
Speaker 3: Nebraska turned There were five times the Illinois didn't turn

458
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:24,159
Speaker 3: it over at all? Is that going to change? You

459
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:28,399
Speaker 3: expect a better effort from the Nebraska defense here because

460
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,879
Speaker 3: I think I personally gonna let you get into Illinois.

461
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 3: Look the Nebraska I have questions about the Nebraska offensive line.

462
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 3: You know, there are receivers without Wandell Robinson. There's some

463
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:41,160
Speaker 3: town but it's unproven. Adrian Martinez, he's very inconsistent. So

464
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 3: and I know the Illinois defense has been trash, but

465
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 3: there I think that the scheme is actually going to

466
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 3: benefit and the scheme change. You know, they were running

467
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 3: just such basic. I've said this minfense four to three,

468
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,679
Speaker 3: you know, cover to just so basic and just always

469
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 3: out of position under love Smith. So I think the

470
00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 3: scheme change, they're going to be a little bit better.

471
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 3: So I tend to think that they can slow down

472
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 3: Nebraska here. And a lot of it's going to be

473
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,439
Speaker 3: Debraska slowing down themselves, and then Illinois are they going

474
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 3: to be able to run it? I think the rescue

475
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 3: on paper should be able to slow annoy down that game.

476
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 3: Just last year scares me so on paper, I from

477
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 3: a matchup perspective that my first book was the under here,

478
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 3: but go ahead where else you want to go? Here?

479
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's where we're That's exactly where I was at

480
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 2: when we got to the Illinois side of the ball.

481
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 2: Because Bielma has been very tight lipped about what direction

482
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 2: he wants to go. He said that it's in my

483
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,119
Speaker 2: best interest, our best interest to stay neutral when it

484
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 2: comes to who's going to be the starter. We know

485
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 2: that it's going to be a run based attack, whether

486
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 2: that's Chase Brown or Chase Hayden. It's going to be

487
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 2: Chase Brown, but then there's a lit there's just a

488
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 2: line of you know, backs behind him that they want

489
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 2: to get into the game. This is going to be

490
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 2: a run first attack, especially with the Highers and the

491
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 2: higher Peterson of offensive coordinator. He was at Appalachian State

492
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,919
Speaker 2: last year. He that you know they were also a

493
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 2: heavy run attack, So you can expect to see for second, third, down,

494
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 2: uh completely be runs. What's interesting about Illinois as I

495
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 2: go back to one of their worst stats last year,

496
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 2: which is there were one hundred and thirteenth in offensive

497
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 2: finishing drives just lovely Smith had nothing once they got

498
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:09,919
Speaker 2: past the twenty yard line. And if I go back

499
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 2: to my Arkansaw days, I can remember Brett Bilama hiking

500
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 2: the ball to offensive linemen and having offensive linemen throw

501
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:21,439
Speaker 2: touchdown passes to other offensive linemen. Brett Bilama does have

502
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 2: a bag of tricks. There's a little bit of less

503
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 2: miles in that play calling when it gets down around

504
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 2: the red zone. So I think that that number with

505
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 2: Illinois and finishing drives is going to come up because

506
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,159
Speaker 2: he's just more creative. He's just going to find different

507
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 2: ways to try to get some scores across. But it's

508
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 2: still going to be a very slow paced offense, which

509
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 2: is kind of how I expect debrask I think Nebrassa

510
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,680
Speaker 2: is going to be all run first. I think Nebrasa

511
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 2: is going to run the ball all day until they

512
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 2: find out who their lead running back is going to be.

513
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:50,879
Speaker 2: You know, Brandon Peters, even though he is the starting quarterback,

514
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 2: is s the only think Brett Bilama will let on

515
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 2: how much is he going to throw in this? We

516
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 2: do know that Illinois gets done. Kramer back, he should

517
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,439
Speaker 2: be playing at the NFL level next year. He's the center.

518
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 2: He's healthy first game of the season. They thankfully he's healthy.

519
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:05,719
Speaker 2: They have a senior right tackle. He was the highest

520
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 2: graded offensive lineman when it came to pass protection for

521
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 2: Illinois last year. So that's something good for Bilama. If

522
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 2: he needs to pass and it gets you down a

523
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 2: distance dictates that. So when I looked at the sidestuck,

524
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 2: you know it's a game that I made Nebraska minus six,

525
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 2: So it's really teetering right there. But the total, if

526
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 2: I was going to make the total based upon what

527
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 2: we saw last year, it would have been forty nine

528
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 2: and a half. So now you have to ask questions,

529
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,400
Speaker 2: has anything changed with Nebraska and Illinois that would make

530
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 2: me want to change that projection of forty nine and

531
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,120
Speaker 2: a half. All these players are back, I mean every team.

532
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 2: All the players are back. So there's no hurt and

533
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 2: like saying, well, this was my total at the end

534
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 2: of last year. What's changed, Well, let me tell you

535
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 2: what's changed. You now have an extra run based attack

536
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,360
Speaker 2: out of Brett Bielama with the same players on both

537
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 2: sides of the ball. So the number is up around

538
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 2: I think it opened fifty seven and a half a

539
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 2: few weeks ago, teetering down around fifty five. There's some

540
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 2: fifty four and a half bet win bet right now

541
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 2: at fifty five. You know, both teams are adamant about

542
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 2: establishing the rush. Both of them need answers offensive finishing drives.

543
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 2: These teams last year atrocious ninety first for Nebraska, one

544
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 2: hundred and thirteenth for Illinois. Could be some improvement for Illinois,

545
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 2: we'll see, but still, I mean, you know this game

546
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 2: is going to be I think the one thing that

547
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 2: really sold me on this and I put my bet

548
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 2: down I got into the Action Network AP was under

549
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:26,919
Speaker 2: fifty five, is there? For some reason, Beilama decided this

550
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 2: week that he was going to practice all his kids

551
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 2: late at night and not in the heat. And I'm

552
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,120
Speaker 2: not saying that eighty degrees is hot, but this game

553
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 2: is being played in the middle of the day, in

554
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 2: the middle of the sun, and Brient Bilama has decided

555
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 2: to practice his kids at night because his next two

556
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 2: games are at night, and he thought that that would

557
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 2: be better, you know, prepare them for the weeks to come,

558
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,239
Speaker 2: so they're going to be playing, you know, and some

559
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 2: temperatures above eighty degrees. There's going to be crosswind in

560
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 2: this game.

561
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:53,239
Speaker 3: Now.

562
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 2: Nebraska has a fine kicker, Illinois doesn't have any kind

563
00:26:55,920 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 2: of kicking whatsoever. So ten mile an hour crosswinds, across

564
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 2: orientation wins that are going to go across the stadium.

565
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 2: Special teams can help us out here. Could be settling

566
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,879
Speaker 2: for field goals. I just don't see a lot of

567
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 2: points being scored after the forty yard line. I don't.

568
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 2: Nebraska is dead set on pounding the ball and finding

569
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,879
Speaker 2: someone to run it other than Adrian Martinez. I like

570
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 2: the under here. I think it's gonna be a very

571
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 2: slow paced game.

572
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 5: Yeah.

573
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 3: I remember Bielmo used to say he'd like hate he'd

574
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 3: loved playing fast paced teams because they just they get

575
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 3: so frustrated with how slow he wants to play, and

576
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 3: he hates being fast paced because it increases the risk

577
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 3: of injury. So I agree with that. The only thing

578
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:39,640
Speaker 3: that gets scary here is turnovers, But you know those

579
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,879
Speaker 3: are hard to predict, and they also could help you,

580
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,399
Speaker 3: you know, if you get turnovers. If you know, laid

581
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,159
Speaker 3: in a drive on the other side of the field,

582
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 3: they could end up helping you. But yeah, I agree.

583
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 3: I think it's going to be a slower type of game,

584
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,439
Speaker 3: but I think both defenses on paper matchup well. The

585
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,400
Speaker 3: only thing that scares me is just how bad Nebraska

586
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 3: was against Illinois running the ball last year.

587
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 2: But yeah, you and I could be sweating this under

588
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 2: because the Illinois defense can't stop a nosebleed at the end, right,

589
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 2: I mean, that's that's really what this comes down to.

590
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 2: But if they improved from last year, we should get

591
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 2: this under.

592
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I agree with you, and I make it

593
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 3: six as well, so you know, if it says I

594
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 3: think there's an eye on the under. If this thing

595
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 3: gets up to like seven and a half eight, I

596
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 3: think that the look it's either Illinois from a side

597
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 3: perspective or nothing. But that was my look as well

598
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 3: on the under. Our second game on CBS Sports Network

599
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,239
Speaker 3: at two pm Eastern. The rest Illinois by the Way,

600
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 3: is at one pm and Fox Fresno State a twenty

601
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 3: seven and a half point favorite over Yukon. Yukon is

602
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 3: a new UMass U mass is still the same UMass

603
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 3: et cetera, et cetera. Excited to have Yukon back, which

604
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:47,959
Speaker 3: didn't play last year and didn't play in the spring.

605
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 2: Justin from reading Yo stuck, I listened to you one

606
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 2: more time on anything involving UKH.

607
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 3: I'm coming after you.

608
00:28:58,440 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 2: Take it easy.

609
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 3: Pres of twenty seven and a half point favorite. They

610
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 3: have Oregon next week total sitting at sixty three. I

611
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 3: can't bet this game. I think I made it twenty

612
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 3: nine and a half, but I'm guessing when it comes

613
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 3: to Yukon.

614
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 2: I'm interested just to watch this game.

615
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,480
Speaker 3: It's gonna really inform me, not only about the teams

616
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 3: who haven't played, just the teams only played a couple

617
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 3: of games last year, or like we're just crushed by

618
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 3: injuries and COVID last year, but we've never seen, you know,

619
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 3: a team who didn't play last year at all, Like

620
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 3: we're gonna see with old Dominion as well, Like what

621
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 3: does that mean? Does it? Does it help? Were they

622
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 3: able to just you know, stay in one place and

623
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 3: build continuity. They didn't get live action though, so does

624
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:41,719
Speaker 3: it hurt in that sense? I mean, what do these

625
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 3: players look like? How much bigger and faster and stronger

626
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 3: are they after after a year break? So we know

627
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 3: Yukon's not a very good team. Oh no, we suck again.

628
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 3: You know they have a decent running back and uh,

629
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 3: you know, there's not many nice things I can say

630
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 3: about Yukon. But this is a pure stanway for me.

631
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 3: Even if I MA, if I showed, you know, I

632
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 3: made it twenty nine and a half, even if I

633
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,239
Speaker 3: was if I made it like thirty one thirty two,

634
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 3: I wouldn't trust my numbers enough to really vet this

635
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 3: because of the uncertainty surrounding Yukon. We've just never seen

636
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 3: a team not play, So this is just a pure

637
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 3: let me take a look and see what happens. And

638
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 3: I know it's only gonna be one data point, but

639
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 3: you got to start somewhere for these teams who haven't played,

640
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 3: and it's just gonna be a story that we're gonna

641
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 3: have to build over the first few weeks. What do

642
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 3: we do about you know, the question of the off season,

643
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 3: how do you handle priors last year? Well, this is

644
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:32,800
Speaker 3: the most extreme case. We're gonna learn more and more

645
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 3: with each game. So I'm sitting on the silence for

646
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 3: this one. I mean, maybe I'll see something and jump

647
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 3: in in the second half. But this is a no

648
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 3: play from a pregame position for me. How about you?

649
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 2: I love how sweet and icy are You can tell

650
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 2: it's a week zero, like you haven't been roughed up

651
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 2: by a few bad beats, because usually by October you

652
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 2: and I are cussing out teams like Yukon. But right

653
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 2: now you're just being You're just being sweet and sitting

654
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 2: back and until you get burned by But you know, really,

655
00:30:56,520 --> 00:31:00,160
Speaker 2: Yukon has not played in forever. And what happened in

656
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 2: New Mexico State decided to play after some four hundred

657
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 2: days against Tarlton State and Dixie State. We'll get to that.

658
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 2: It didn't go very well. And you know, this is

659
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 2: a trip where Connecticut is going to go all the

660
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 2: way out to California. And this is the Fresno State

661
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 2: team that has a very good coach, and I believe

662
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:18,479
Speaker 2: that they underperformed last year and now they get all

663
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 2: of these players back. More importantly, seventy eight percent on

664
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 2: the offensive side of the ball, eighty percent according to Tarpa,

665
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 2: on the defensive side of the ball. Jake Hayner at quarterback.

666
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 2: Say what you want about what he did at Washington,

667
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 2: He's still got a ton of you know, game experience

668
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 2: against Power five teams. And then Ronnie Rivers probably the

669
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 2: best running back in the Mountain West. I mean, there's

670
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 2: not many that are built like him when it comes

671
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:42,960
Speaker 2: to the Group of five level. The Bulldogs are expected

672
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 2: to have the best running back and wide receiver unit

673
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 2: in the Mountain West this year, and Yukon's secondary is

674
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 2: full of fresh faces. Just Diamond Harrell is the only

675
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 2: one that's coming back from the twenty nineteen season. He

676
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 2: only had three pass breakups that year, so it is

677
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 2: as green as possibly could be. Defensively, Fresno had a

678
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 2: HAVOC rank last year of twenty third in the country.

679
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 2: They return all of that except for maybe like a

680
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 2: couple of sacks. They returned almost every single player from

681
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 2: the defense. Fifteen of the top sixteen tacklers return. Yukon

682
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 2: has just two offensive linemen returning from twenty nineteen, so

683
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 2: when we're talking about green faces in the secondary that

684
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 2: have never seen playing time for Yukon. On the defensive

685
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 2: side of the ball, the offensive line only has two

686
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,239
Speaker 2: starters from twenty nineteen. They have a bunch of new

687
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 2: faces there. They were outside the top seventy five and

688
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 2: sacks allowed in twenty nineteen, So not really sure what

689
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 2: we're getting back. There is going to be a two

690
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 2: quarterback system. We're going to get. Jack Zuriotis played in

691
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, Steven Kradzuski played twenty nineteen. They're both going

692
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 2: to get the call. They combined for thirteen big time throws,

693
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 2: but twenty one turnover worthy plays. Not the ratio you're

694
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 2: really looking for for stability. Zuri Otis had two hundred

695
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 2: ninety three dropbacks and he certainly has the edge and experience.

696
00:32:57,720 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 2: Kradjuski didn't. I don't think he got over one hundred

697
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,239
Speaker 2: and so you're talking about running back mensa. He had

698
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 2: over one thousand yards, He created thirty eight missed tackles,

699
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 2: but it was it took him two hundred and twenty

700
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 2: five at ten, so it's not like he's traves etn

701
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 2: run around out there. He had fourteen runs over fifteen

702
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 2: plus yards. More of a downhill runner, so I mean,

703
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 2: if that can get stopped Listen, Fresno has a solid

704
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 2: front seven. For Mountain West Conference play, the Bulldogs were

705
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 2: fourth an opponent passing success rate last year and they

706
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 2: were third and sacrate. So where Fresno really excels is

707
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 2: in passing downs, and I think they're not going to

708
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 2: have a problem getting Kevin Mensa, like getting some stops

709
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 2: in and getting some chains, which is what you really

710
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 2: need to look for in the Fresno defense. It's the

711
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 2: pass defense. It's actually pretty ferocious. They were really good

712
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 2: last year. Yukon's covered just once in their last seven

713
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 2: season openers. Edsel's been there for most of those. Doesn't

714
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 2: seem like they've really been prepared for some of these games.

715
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 2: Really big edge for Fresno when it comes to explosive players,

716
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 2: especially on the outside, especially when it comes to the

717
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 2: edge position and getting to the quarterback. Is the first

718
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 2: half worth of play on Fresno. That is what I've

719
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 2: been debating, because Fresno has to pack up and go

720
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 2: to Eugene after this. So as badly as I'd like

721
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 2: to play Fresno, I make it minus twenty five minus

722
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:13,760
Speaker 2: twenty seven a little bit too high for me first

723
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:17,320
Speaker 2: half as a consideration because Oregon is following up. I

724
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 2: think Fresnoe State is fantastic, but what are we going

725
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 2: to put on tape? Before we go and play the Ducks,

726
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 2: so you know, possibility. I could play fresnoe in the

727
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,839
Speaker 2: first half. But what I really played was the over

728
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 2: and the experience that Yukon has in the secondary. I

729
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:34,439
Speaker 2: don't see it. I know Jay Cayner can throw it deep.

730
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,799
Speaker 2: I know he's got explosive wide receivers, and I think

731
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 2: Fresno really takes their foot off the gas, gets prepared

732
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 2: for Oregon, and Yukon's not going to stop. This team

733
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 2: has not played in two years. It's not like it's

734
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:48,319
Speaker 2: going to be the third or fourth quarter and they're

735
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:50,240
Speaker 2: going to be swapping in their third and fourth teams.

736
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 2: Yukon is still going to be playing in the fourth quarter.

737
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 2: I took a small play, not a full unit, took

738
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,400
Speaker 2: a half unit over sixty two and a half. I

739
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,319
Speaker 2: would play the over sixty three probably stop right there.

740
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 2: But I think Fresno is going to make a statement

741
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:06,800
Speaker 2: with some of the skilled position players they have, and

742
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 2: I think Yukon is going to play until the very

743
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:09,879
Speaker 2: last snap in the fourth quarter.

744
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean there's there's some things too. By the way,

745
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 3: Fresno does have a very good receiving core. I mean

746
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:19,479
Speaker 3: Cropper Kelly All come back. They had a receiver from Washington,

747
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,399
Speaker 3: but not the best. Please do not disrespect mine about

748
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,799
Speaker 3: a wolf back. But yeah, I like their front their

749
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 3: front seven. They have some new intriguing linebackers that they

750
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 3: bring in, but their defensive line is really a strength.

751
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 3: They have three All Conference honorees, you know, Jones, Paralis

752
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 3: and Atkins, and then they also bring in Mosey back

753
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 3: who might start. So I like their defense. They do

754
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:44,320
Speaker 3: get after the quarterback. The offensive line brings back everybody,

755
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 3: but it's all shaken up. There's all new starters that

756
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 3: are all in different positions, so that might actually be

757
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 3: a good thing because they gave up way too many

758
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 3: sacks last year. But if you look at what Fresno

759
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 3: did last year in Divor's first year, I think it

760
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 3: was really impressive considering their circumstances. Yeah, COVID blah blah blah,

761
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 3: but they had no in person activities from March twelfth

762
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 3: to September twenty fifth, none. They were implementing a new

763
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 3: four to two five defense. They had a new quarterback

764
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 3: and j Canner who really started to come on at

765
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 3: the end of the year. So there's a lot of

766
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 3: signs where you would say, Okay, Fresno should I think

767
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 3: they're the top. You know, they most of their top

768
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 3: tackles returned. So if there's a lot of things that

769
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,279
Speaker 3: you would say, okay, fred is going to continue this

770
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 3: upswing from a win total perspective. The problem is their

771
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 3: schedule is brutal. But yeah, I think this program is

772
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 3: on the upswing. I just don't know how to project Yukon.

773
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 3: I can see a second half play on Connecticut because

774
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 3: you know, if Fresno State with the oregonon deck, is

775
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 3: just rolling, they have a brutal schedule, like they need

776
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 3: to just stay healthy, and so I could see them

777
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:44,840
Speaker 3: taking their foot off their guests and Yukon going. I

778
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 3: just need to see some competence that sit from Yukon

779
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:47,839
Speaker 3: in the first half.

780
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think to drive home the overpoint, the

781
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:52,320
Speaker 2: one that really kind of sold me on this is

782
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 2: that Klein de Bor's first year at Fresno State, they

783
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:56,960
Speaker 2: finished thirty seventh and seconds per play. They were a

784
00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 2: tempo offense. And if you go back and look at

785
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 2: what Yukon was under Andy Edsel when he got back

786
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:03,880
Speaker 2: there in twenty seventeen, they were top twenty five in

787
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 2: adjusted pace. They like to go tempo too, so that

788
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 2: was a big point of me and taking the over

789
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 2: is that you know, with all those things that you

790
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:13,919
Speaker 2: just said, these teams are gonna these teams are gonna

791
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 2: get up to the line of scrimmage and get the

792
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 2: ball hiked well before the play clock is even close

793
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 2: to expiring.

794
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 3: Yep. Make sure you check out the Action Network app

795
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:21,839
Speaker 3: if you're one of the seven people in the where

796
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 3: that doesn't already have it, and actionework dot com for

797
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 3: write ups all season long end. For this weekend, we'll

798
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:29,560
Speaker 3: have just a ton of stuff coming out, and our

799
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 3: team is constantly growing and I love a lot of

800
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 3: our new editions, so I think you will too. All right,

801
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 3: let's move on to the third game of the day

802
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 3: between Hawaii and UCLA. This game is three p thirty

803
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:52,879
Speaker 3: Eastern on ESPN Ucla at win bets an eighteen point

804
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:59,320
Speaker 3: favorite total sitting at sixty eight. Hawaii a very interesting

805
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:01,880
Speaker 3: team this year number one there. Keep in mind, I

806
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 3: think they have seven road games, which is a school record,

807
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 3: and obviously road games are major for Hawaii with the

808
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:09,520
Speaker 3: travel and then at home they're playing in a nine.

809
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 3: I don't know if many people know this, but they're

810
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 3: a lot of stadium's gone no more. They're playing in

811
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 3: a nine thousand retrofited campus stadium, so they're gonna be

812
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 3: playing on campus for the first time. That'll be interesting

813
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:23,880
Speaker 3: to watch late night. But Hawaii actually, you know, they

814
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 3: bring back Corderra quarterback, and this is the second year

815
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 3: of Todd Graham. You know, he transitioned them from the

816
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 3: run and shoot to the run gun. It's more use

817
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:35,720
Speaker 3: of the tight end and running back routes. Love Calvin Turner.

818
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 3: He's just a Swiss army nut that could do so

819
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 3: many things special teams, wide receiver, running back, you can

820
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,879
Speaker 3: use them in so many different ways. And he's gonna

821
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 3: play in the NFL one day and be used as

822
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 3: a very versatile piece. When you look at this Hawaii team,

823
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:51,279
Speaker 3: they had a pretty good year considering it was the

824
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:53,880
Speaker 3: first year of Todd Graham. I like some of their

825
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 3: pieces in the secondary. It's actually a really good pass defense.

826
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 3: Although some of their numbers were skewed, there's some talent

827
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:04,320
Speaker 3: in the secondary. Cortes Davis is a stud. You know.

828
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 3: Ug FN's back from injury as well. But their rundy

829
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 3: was so bad they didn't really have to pass on them.

830
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 3: So that's my concern here. You know, I know that

831
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:15,719
Speaker 3: you're gonna goosh you over. UCLA. Expectations are really high,

832
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 3: the highest they've been for Chip Kelly during his time

833
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 3: in Westwood. You have dtr back. You know, the offensive

834
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 3: line finally looks competent. There's some promise on a very

835
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 3: experienced defense where it should be improved. On the back end,

836
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 3: we know they can get after the quarterback. The question

837
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 3: for me, and this line, by the way, opened at

838
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 3: nine a couple of places and it's all the way

839
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 3: up to eighteen. The question for me is number one,

840
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 3: what does UCLI want to show and how much do

841
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 3: they want to keep? How long they want to keep

842
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:48,919
Speaker 3: their starters? And if this gets out of hand because

843
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 3: they have LCU one deck so Elsuh comes in next week,

844
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 3: how so how much do they want to show? And

845
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 3: then if they don't want to show anything. When I

846
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 3: started how I started to think about it is you know,

847
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 3: and they have two you know, they lost their starting

848
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 3: running back, but they have two new backs, one transfer

849
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 3: from Michigan, one from Duke, who are make up a

850
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 3: pretty good backfield that I think they're gonna have a

851
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 3: lot of success running ball. If they just decided to

852
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 3: go run heavy, that might work against Hawaii because Hawaii's

853
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 3: defensive line is the weakest part of their their defense

854
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 3: by far, and so you know, maybe they can UCLA

855
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:29,440
Speaker 3: could just go very basic and they could put up

856
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 3: a lot of points and Hawaii might not help themselves.

857
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 3: You're gonna have new offensive coordinator, play caller bogram Todd Grebson.

858
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 3: You can expect tempo eighty five ninety five plays per game.

859
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 3: So if things aren't working or there's be punts, be

860
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:45,520
Speaker 3: quick three and outs. So it's very intriguing game because

861
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:46,959
Speaker 3: on one hand, I'm like, all right, maybe you said

862
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:48,880
Speaker 3: doesn't want to show anything. Maybe I'll look at Hawaii

863
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:50,839
Speaker 3: second half. But if you said does want to show anything,

864
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:52,719
Speaker 3: maybe they're just able to just run it up and

865
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 3: down the field against this bad, bad Hawaii run defense.

866
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 3: What do you see here?

867
00:40:56,760 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 2: That's exactly what I think is gonna happen. I'll start

868
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 2: off by saying RP to Robert Kakula, my favorite announcer

869
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:06,399
Speaker 2: of any college football game, Hawaii's famous announcer who put

870
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 2: many of us to sleep after midnight with some of

871
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:11,440
Speaker 2: the best analogies ever, it's just it's going to be

872
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 2: a shame watching Hawaii football without hearing that voice.

873
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 3: They right to get RP. Cole Brennan as well.

874
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, Cole Brennan. Gosh, let's enjoy these Hawaii games because

875
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 2: they are just such a big part of our betting

876
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:34,359
Speaker 2: and our just our whole viewing experience. I love him

877
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 2: so much, but the more I dive into this Hawaii team,

878
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 2: I'm not finding things that are that great. Let me

879
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 2: just go real brief on UCLA because I think that's

880
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 2: all I've talked about. You know, the Ryan Gunderson experiment

881
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 2: is going to start. He's a passing game coordinator for

882
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 2: San Jose State. He's now the quarterback coach for UCLA.

883
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 2: He is solely in charge of Dorian Thompson Robinson to

884
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 2: try to get him to play mistake free football. He

885
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:58,399
Speaker 2: you know, you see like he gets all his weapons back,

886
00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 2: his wide receiver Kyle Phillips and Greg Dulcic. You know,

887
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 2: the offensive line goes too deep. Britain Brown returns in

888
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,080
Speaker 2: the backfield. He had sixteen miss tackles on just eighty

889
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 2: two attempts last year, and his forte really is not

890
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 2: creating mistackles. It's the fact that he averaged four point

891
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:18,719
Speaker 2: seven nine yards after contact. He is a hit you

892
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 2: and I'm still running kind of running back. Ucla is

893
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 2: I love it.

894
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 3: I love I love Duke.

895
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, boy, they could use him. Ucla is loaded on offense,

896
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:29,800
Speaker 2: and you know, the question is always going to be

897
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 2: Jerry as in Narrow's defense and what they could do.

898
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 2: And really that's kind of a handicap on the side

899
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 2: here for the full game. Is Jerry Asinaro's defense going

900
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 2: to be able to stop what Chavan Cordero is going

901
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:44,280
Speaker 2: to do. It's not going to be Bo Graham's play calling.

902
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:49,399
Speaker 2: That's what I found interesting Hawaii. I don't know what's

903
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 2: going on with Hawaii and the coaching staff. They lost GJ.

904
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 5: Kinney.

905
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 2: He's now at Central Florida, the go go wrinkle that

906
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:58,399
Speaker 2: they were trying to introduce last year, and now they've

907
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 2: got problems on both sides of the ball. Defensively, I

908
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 2: guess maybe the strength is the secondary. They might be

909
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 2: the second best in the Mountain West, but the front

910
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 2: seven is just a real problem, especially against the run.

911
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 2: Hawaii was ninety first in lineyards, eighty first an opponent

912
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 2: success rate. It just doesn't bode well against explosive players

913
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:21,200
Speaker 2: like everyone that UCLA has, including Zach Sharbonari Charbone, who

914
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:23,879
Speaker 2: they got from Michigan. You know, I mean, he found

915
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 2: the end zone twelve times for them. So Hawaii's defense

916
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 2: is really going to struggle, especially against the ground game.

917
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:31,879
Speaker 2: Interesting to note, on the defensive side of the ball,

918
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 2: they were really excited about hiring Victor Santa Cruz as

919
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:38,359
Speaker 2: their defensive coordinator. He got demoted down to just defensive ends,

920
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 2: and now they have promoted from within the secondary coach

921
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 2: Trent figg So he's going to go from the press

922
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 2: box down to the sideline. And that's where a little

923
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:50,760
Speaker 2: bit of handicap comes in. Here is the guy calling

924
00:43:50,880 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 2: the defense is no longer getting the view that he

925
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:55,600
Speaker 2: has always had. He's now going to be actually on

926
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:58,720
Speaker 2: the field. That is definitely a negative in my eyes

927
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:02,719
Speaker 2: for Hawaii. Bogram is now the offensive coordinator. You know,

928
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:04,919
Speaker 2: I mean when you look at his resume, I didn't

929
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 2: even realize that while Todd Graham was here being the

930
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:10,719
Speaker 2: head coach at Tulsa, the city that I live in,

931
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 2: his son was the high school coach, the Tulsa Central

932
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 2: High School coach in two thousand and six. So there's

933
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 2: been a lot of bogram following his dad around with

934
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 2: stops at ASU, some pit in there, a lot of

935
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:24,600
Speaker 2: other stuff. But there's no history of play calling here.

936
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 2: There is no history of anything, and that leads me

937
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 2: to believe this is the Chavon Cordero show through the

938
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 2: air on the ground, And really I think it's a

939
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 2: pretty good test if UCLA cannot control what Shavon Cordero

940
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 2: is going to do in passing downs or in scramble

941
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:43,880
Speaker 2: situations or in designed runs where Cordero has really proven

942
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 2: that he can be, you know, a factor in a

943
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:47,880
Speaker 2: game that's going to spell a lot of trouble for

944
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 2: the LSU game. If you see UCLA absolutely dominating Chavon Cordero,

945
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 2: then yeah, I've got a better feeling about Max Johnson

946
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 2: because we've said this about LSU. We have questions in

947
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 2: the backfield about who's going to run the ball, and

948
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 2: that Mac Johnson may have to be dual threat. Well,

949
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 2: this is a great test for UCLA just to get

950
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:07,839
Speaker 2: warmed up, break a sweat. Hopefully they play all four

951
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 2: quarters here. So that's really what I'm watching overall on

952
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 2: the game. But as far as this, I think UCLA

953
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 2: is going to be balls to the wall in the

954
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 2: first half and then pull everybody before they get to

955
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:23,920
Speaker 2: the UCLA before they get to the LSU game the

956
00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:26,840
Speaker 2: following week. There's no reason for Dorian Thompson Robinson to

957
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 2: be playing in the second half of this game, for

958
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:30,759
Speaker 2: any of their starter to be playing in the second

959
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:32,480
Speaker 2: half of this game, for Chip Kelly to be giving

960
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 2: stuff away, And think about it, what does this game

961
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:38,640
Speaker 2: come down to. Ucla has explosive playmakers that can do

962
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 2: things in space. It's not the play design. It's not

963
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 2: like they're going to show you a bag of tricks.

964
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 2: They're literally just going to run Hawaii defenders out of

965
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 2: their shoes. It's explosive plays that they've had issues with forever.

966
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:54,640
Speaker 2: I believe Trent Figg was quoted as saying, the biggest

967
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 2: problem with Hawaii's defense is that our secondary doesn't make

968
00:45:57,600 --> 00:46:01,840
Speaker 2: tackles and they turn into touchdowns. Real problem against UCLA.

969
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:05,919
Speaker 2: So the bet for me is UCLA in the first half,

970
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 2: there are minus nine and a half's out there. Most

971
00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:10,279
Speaker 2: of the world is sitting on ten. I would take

972
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:13,200
Speaker 2: them both. You're gonna get the full explosive Chip Keilly

973
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 2: experience in the first half, I'm not sure what's gonna

974
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 2: happen in the second half. We'll see if they can

975
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 2: contain Shavon Cordero. There could be a backdoor cover here

976
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:22,280
Speaker 2: with this hook. But I am very comfortable taking Ucla

977
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:22,960
Speaker 2: in the first half.

978
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 5: Yeah.

979
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:26,000
Speaker 3: The UCLA defense, by the way, I mean their coordinator

980
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:27,719
Speaker 3: has been there for I think three or four years,

981
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 3: but they brought in Brian Norwood, their defensive backs coach,

982
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 3: last year and him and the defensive coordinator switched the

983
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:37,319
Speaker 3: defense to a four to two five. The results are

984
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:39,359
Speaker 3: pretty good. Up front, they were one of the best

985
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:41,880
Speaker 3: teams in the nation to getting into the backfield, but

986
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:44,120
Speaker 3: in the secondary, he was pretty bad. They're one hundred

987
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:45,919
Speaker 3: and fourteenth first the pass, one hundred and twenty seventh

988
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 3: in yards per attempt allowed. But everyone comes back. They

989
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:53,320
Speaker 3: were playing, you know, more aggressive man on the outside

990
00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 3: that moved some defensive backs around, but they bring everyone back.

991
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:58,359
Speaker 3: I think, look, there was this guys running wide open

992
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 3: that missed the Simons. With this new defense, I think

993
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:02,400
Speaker 3: the second is gonna be a lot better. And if

994
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 3: it is, and you know, as long as they can

995
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 3: find a way to at least partially replace Ode Gazuma,

996
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 3: who might be starting for the Cowboys this year. They

997
00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:13,359
Speaker 3: lost him, but they bring almost everyone back the lost

998
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,760
Speaker 3: him from the defensive line. This defense could be significantly improved.

999
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 3: We know they can get after the quarterback. Now can

1000
00:47:19,520 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 3: the secondary improve? And I think Norwood has them headed

1001
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 3: in the right direction. Yeah, I agree, I don't. I

1002
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 3: don't disagree with It's all roses early on in the season.

1003
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 3: A lot lots of agreement, and we're not We're not

1004
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:32,480
Speaker 3: mad at any teams yet, but I don't disagree with

1005
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 3: your take there.

1006
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 2: I know it's a new offensive coordinator with Bo Graham

1007
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:39,000
Speaker 2: who has no experiences versus GJ. Kenney, who we actually

1008
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:41,400
Speaker 2: really like his offensive coordinator last year. But keep in

1009
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 2: mind that even though we liked Kenny last year, is

1010
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:46,840
Speaker 2: the offensive coordinator. Hawaii was blanked in the first quarter

1011
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 2: of half their games last year. They start slow every

1012
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 2: single game. It's I think Schavan Cordero is the new

1013
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:55,799
Speaker 2: Blake Bortals. He's like, you know, the fourth quarter stat

1014
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 2: king master, fantasy fantasy football player, you wanted your roster

1015
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:02,280
Speaker 2: for the fourth quarter garbage. You've just been bordled.

1016
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:04,560
Speaker 3: All right, let's and by the way, I mean, I

1017
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:06,399
Speaker 3: really do think why he's gonna try to run eighty

1018
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:08,800
Speaker 3: now they're gonna try to be the festest team potentially.

1019
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 3: So that's not gonna help them here because they're they're

1020
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 3: overmatched and they're just they're just giving more possessions away

1021
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 3: to UCLA. All Right, So let's move on to the

1022
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 3: final FBS matchup on Saturday, the Nightcap nine thirty pm Eastern.

1023
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:22,680
Speaker 2: Not on TV.

1024
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 3: We're talking minor nation.

1025
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:28,960
Speaker 2: Out in the West Texas town of a past so.

1026
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 3: Picks up an absolute travesty that it's not on TV.

1027
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:37,880
Speaker 3: UTAP at New Mexico State at win bet UTEP is

1028
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:41,279
Speaker 3: a ten point favor ten point road favor over under

1029
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 3: fifty eight and a half. Here's the craziest thing. Here's

1030
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:46,319
Speaker 3: how bad New Mexico State is. I make you tap

1031
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:48,360
Speaker 3: a twelve twelve and a half point favorite here. So

1032
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:51,120
Speaker 3: I like them under ten. I just I didn't know

1033
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 3: if I wanted til the first day of college football

1034
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:56,880
Speaker 3: late late ten on the row with UTAP, because I mean,

1035
00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 3: number one, it's it's very hard to you know, it's

1036
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:01,399
Speaker 3: one of those just from a number of perspective. Yeah,

1037
00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:02,680
Speaker 3: normally if I made it twelve and a half. I

1038
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 3: can get under ten. I'd probably take it for the

1039
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:07,799
Speaker 3: Mexico State. I mean, look, they didn't play last year,

1040
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:10,400
Speaker 3: and then they played in the spring. I mean it

1041
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:13,920
Speaker 3: was embarrassing. I mean they beat Dixie State great win

1042
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 3: by seven. They lost forty three seventeen to Tarleton State,

1043
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 3: and they just got shredded. Tarleton State had five hundred

1044
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 3: and one yards in New Mexico State's two hundred and

1045
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 3: forty one. The team that brings back only two starters.

1046
00:49:29,239 --> 00:49:30,839
Speaker 3: This is the worst team in the nation by far.

1047
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 3: The New Mexico State Aggies the worst team in college football.

1048
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:38,600
Speaker 3: I mean, I have UTUP is a twelve twelve point

1049
00:49:38,680 --> 00:49:40,800
Speaker 3: favorite on the road against them. The problem is, I

1050
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:42,759
Speaker 3: mean they to be fair, they were playing a lot

1051
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:47,360
Speaker 3: of like freshman second teamers, third teamers. But still, this

1052
00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:52,240
Speaker 3: is a program that is in absolute shambles. UTEP should

1053
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 3: have a pretty good running game. You know, Cardison comes

1054
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:58,840
Speaker 3: back at quarterback, Cowing and company. That's some good receivers.

1055
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:02,880
Speaker 3: The defense is, but this team should be able to

1056
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 3: move the ball at will, just on the ground against

1057
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 3: this New Mexico State team. Yeah, I mean, I think

1058
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:10,719
Speaker 3: there's value in utep on the road as a double

1059
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:14,160
Speaker 3: digit favor. Didn't think I'd be saying that against an

1060
00:50:14,280 --> 00:50:16,879
Speaker 3: FBS team, no less. But here we are in twenty

1061
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:18,239
Speaker 3: twenty one. What do you see here?

1062
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:20,840
Speaker 2: Well, if you go and look at SAGGER and ratings,

1063
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:23,239
Speaker 2: you know where there's a good crossover between FCS and

1064
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:26,760
Speaker 2: FBS teams. There are two hundred and fifty nine teams,

1065
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:29,960
Speaker 2: maybe two sixty. Both Dixie State and Tarleton State are

1066
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:32,719
Speaker 2: outside the top two hundred. And to consider that New

1067
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 2: Mexico State struggled with one and lost to the other.

1068
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 2: What is the takeaway here? Well, you know, New Mexico

1069
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 2: State's going to field two quarterbacks, Jonah Johnson and Western.

1070
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 2: Yet Johnson was really inefficient in one of the games,

1071
00:50:45,800 --> 00:50:49,000
Speaker 2: three interceptions, He got pulled Western and get came in

1072
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:52,080
Speaker 2: actually played pretty decent, got hurt, and then Jona Johnson

1073
00:50:52,120 --> 00:50:54,439
Speaker 2: came back in again and he finally played a little

1074
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:57,719
Speaker 2: bit decent. There's just just nothing good to find out

1075
00:50:57,760 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 2: of this team. From what happened in the spring. There

1076
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:04,040
Speaker 2: were these two FCS teams went up and down the

1077
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:07,920
Speaker 2: field on offense, and that's not really a great thing. Now,

1078
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:09,800
Speaker 2: the thing that kind of pulls me off of it,

1079
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:12,000
Speaker 2: and I'm right there with you, stuck. I'm on. You know,

1080
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:14,560
Speaker 2: UTEP minus twelve on this game, I'm actually kind of

1081
00:51:14,640 --> 00:51:17,920
Speaker 2: kicking myself because I know a group shaped this number.

1082
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:20,040
Speaker 2: They tried to shape it all the way down to seven.

1083
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:21,400
Speaker 2: There was a day where it moved from nine and

1084
00:51:21,440 --> 00:51:22,920
Speaker 2: a half all the way down to seven and a

1085
00:51:22,920 --> 00:51:25,439
Speaker 2: half and eight at most shops. There was a group

1086
00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 2: that was trying to shape this number to get a

1087
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:29,800
Speaker 2: touchdown down on UTEP. And unfortunately, I'd never saw it

1088
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:32,759
Speaker 2: flicker seven anywhere. But even though this isn't one of

1089
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:35,520
Speaker 2: those things where Stucky and I say, yeah, we make

1090
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:37,879
Speaker 2: the game twelve twelve and a half, ten's a good number. Well,

1091
00:51:38,239 --> 00:51:42,319
Speaker 2: let's talk about that. UTEP is really slow. Seconds per play,

1092
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:44,799
Speaker 2: one of the slowest in the nation. And this isn't

1093
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:48,120
Speaker 2: like Male City. Yeah, and this isn't like Coastal Carolina

1094
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:50,560
Speaker 2: where you're almost guaranteed to get it, you know, a

1095
00:51:50,680 --> 00:51:53,160
Speaker 2: minimum of a field goal and almost a touchdown every

1096
00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:55,759
Speaker 2: single time. They take you know, a slow pace all

1097
00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:58,160
Speaker 2: the way to get down the field. So what they

1098
00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:01,799
Speaker 2: do have is quarterback Avin Hardison fourteen big time throws

1099
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:04,400
Speaker 2: and only eleven turnover worth he plays. That is a

1100
00:52:04,680 --> 00:52:08,520
Speaker 2: very huge positive for UTEB football. Average depth of target

1101
00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:12,239
Speaker 2: twelve yards. I mean he throws a that's actually really good.

1102
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:14,840
Speaker 2: When you look at the span of quarterbacks, most average

1103
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 2: around seven to ten and he's at twelve yards for

1104
00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:20,040
Speaker 2: average depth. You know, UTEP returns the entire offensive line.

1105
00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:23,320
Speaker 2: Most of their numbers were outside the top one hundred.

1106
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:26,080
Speaker 2: But there are signs of life in this UTEP program,

1107
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:28,680
Speaker 2: which is why we like that Dana Demol's team finished

1108
00:52:28,719 --> 00:52:32,640
Speaker 2: fortieth and Havoc allowed on offense seventeenth and opponents sack rate.

1109
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:35,960
Speaker 2: That offensive line did its job in protection, and you know,

1110
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 2: their quarterback Harsen was fantastic at finding his target or

1111
00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:42,440
Speaker 2: getting rid of the ball. You know, some some things

1112
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:44,600
Speaker 2: that we just have not seen out of UTEP. Dian

1113
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:47,359
Speaker 2: Hankins is going to get all the standardown carries. It's

1114
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:49,480
Speaker 2: going to be interesting to see if Dana Dimmo sticks

1115
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:52,560
Speaker 2: with a you know, really hard rush rate and goes

1116
00:52:52,640 --> 00:52:54,719
Speaker 2: really slow like he has in the past, or if

1117
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:56,480
Speaker 2: he's just gonna let Hardison, you know, float it out

1118
00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:59,359
Speaker 2: and throw darts down the field. Especially with Jacob Cowing.

1119
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:01,600
Speaker 2: Jacob cow and I can't believe we're going to say

1120
00:53:01,640 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 2: this for UTEP wide receiver has a chance to be

1121
00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 2: first team All Conference USA. I didn't think that was possible.

1122
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:10,920
Speaker 2: Problem is, he had eight drops last year. He's got

1123
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:12,760
Speaker 2: to improve there. I think that was about a sixteen

1124
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 2: percent drop percentage that he had. UTAP has a real

1125
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 2: decent defensive front seven praise amawaut Edge and Keenan Stewart

1126
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 2: at tackle. Both of them are going to be really

1127
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:25,680
Speaker 2: good in Conference USA. So yeah, UTEP is the play

1128
00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:29,000
Speaker 2: the ten just kind of I would definitely be on

1129
00:53:29,080 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 2: ten and not ten and a half. It's just this

1130
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:35,719
Speaker 2: offense is so freaking slow that if they need a

1131
00:53:35,800 --> 00:53:38,920
Speaker 2: fourth quarter drive to cover the spread, I'm not really

1132
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:40,239
Speaker 2: sure how New Mexico State's.

1133
00:53:39,960 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 3: Going run out.

1134
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:44,720
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, yeah, Dana Devil has no problems just running

1135
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:48,440
Speaker 2: clock out here and getting any victories of victory for him,

1136
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:50,320
Speaker 2: covering is not really that big of a deal. So

1137
00:53:51,200 --> 00:53:54,880
Speaker 2: suggestion numbers about right. I lean on the UTEB side

1138
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 2: this number. I think what's interesting for everybody in the

1139
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:01,120
Speaker 2: market is that this number has two taken off for

1140
00:54:01,239 --> 00:54:03,920
Speaker 2: the total on the over. Now, that is something that

1141
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:06,799
Speaker 2: I've been investigating all day about why it's gone up

1142
00:54:06,840 --> 00:54:10,120
Speaker 2: above fifty seven fifty nine at a few shops. And

1143
00:54:10,239 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 2: if this gets to sixty, I don't know how You're

1144
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:14,800
Speaker 2: not playing the under here, but for some reason this

1145
00:54:14,960 --> 00:54:17,360
Speaker 2: number is taking off first half total. I believe open twenty.

1146
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 3: Four because the Mexico State can't show that they can't

1147
00:54:19,600 --> 00:54:21,799
Speaker 3: stop a nosebleed. I mean they gave up five hundred

1148
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:24,200
Speaker 3: yards and forty three points to Charloton State. That's the

1149
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:24,759
Speaker 3: worry here.

1150
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:27,320
Speaker 2: Well, what does it matter if UTEP is competing in

1151
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:29,640
Speaker 2: the Olympics and the what is it the steeplechase where

1152
00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:32,960
Speaker 2: they're walking like they're not running Like I know UTEP

1153
00:54:33,040 --> 00:54:35,560
Speaker 2: can't even even if they had an empty field. I

1154
00:54:35,600 --> 00:54:37,600
Speaker 2: think they would you know, only be able to you know,

1155
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:41,080
Speaker 2: score a touchdown once every six minutes. So I think

1156
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:44,279
Speaker 2: that's my only worry is. I mean, the total keeps

1157
00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:47,359
Speaker 2: going up, but I'm not sure u TEMP is really

1158
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 2: that fast of an offense and explosive enough to get

1159
00:54:50,120 --> 00:54:52,239
Speaker 2: a total that high, So I'll be I'll be looking

1160
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:53,919
Speaker 2: for an under. I don't I'm sure if'm gonna play.

1161
00:54:54,239 --> 00:54:55,880
Speaker 3: I mean, how how slow can you go if you

1162
00:54:56,000 --> 00:54:57,319
Speaker 3: just hand it off? And then run for an eighty

1163
00:54:57,440 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 3: arc touchdown. That's why I will only consider how bad, Yeah,

1164
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:06,520
Speaker 3: how bad is the new Mexaco State defense? All right, So,

1165
00:55:07,239 --> 00:55:09,840
Speaker 3: Minor Nation, I'll be on you somehow. I might just

1166
00:55:09,880 --> 00:55:14,800
Speaker 3: throw you into a fun parlay moneyline parlay to celebrate

1167
00:55:14,880 --> 00:55:16,840
Speaker 3: the day. I'll find a way to be on you,

1168
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:23,120
Speaker 3: all right. Before we move on to a couple of

1169
00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:25,799
Speaker 3: segments to close out here, quick word from our friends

1170
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:27,600
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1171
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1178
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00:55:54,040 --> 00:55:56,840
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Speaker 3: qualifying deposit in place your first bet within ten days

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1183
00:56:05,360 --> 00:56:08,319
Speaker 3: Network clinking This episode description must be twenty one or over.

1184
00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:10,840
Speaker 3: To gamble, no, when to stop before you start gambling

1185
00:56:10,880 --> 00:56:14,319
Speaker 3: problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right, let's move

1186
00:56:14,360 --> 00:56:17,399
Speaker 3: on to my favorite segment. It's the first of the year.

1187
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 3: Let's do some FCEs or now.

1188
00:56:27,800 --> 00:56:33,319
Speaker 2: Southland or SEC, Big Sky or Big Ten. It's time

1189
00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:35,759
Speaker 2: to play FC yes or no?

1190
00:56:40,239 --> 00:56:41,920
Speaker 3: All right, Now, we're gonna be quick here because I mean,

1191
00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:43,719
Speaker 3: it's the first week of the season where I mean,

1192
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:45,359
Speaker 3: it's hard enough to try and protect some of these

1193
00:56:45,480 --> 00:56:48,440
Speaker 3: FBS teams. But there are a couple f CS matchups.

1194
00:56:48,440 --> 00:56:50,600
Speaker 3: I'll just talk to one real quick. San Jose State's

1195
00:56:50,600 --> 00:56:54,799
Speaker 3: a twenty three point favorite over Southern Utah. Southern Utah. Look,

1196
00:56:54,840 --> 00:56:57,919
Speaker 3: they're just a you know, an average Big Sky team.

1197
00:56:58,080 --> 00:57:00,360
Speaker 3: They went one in five in the spring. We have

1198
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:04,040
Speaker 3: pretty misleading record. All five losses were single possession and

1199
00:57:04,200 --> 00:57:07,480
Speaker 3: four were by combined seven points, so they were right there.

1200
00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:10,400
Speaker 3: I like some of the pieces on their defense, but

1201
00:57:10,640 --> 00:57:14,239
Speaker 3: Santaose State should win this game comfortably. The problem is

1202
00:57:14,800 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 3: how much will they care and then how much will

1203
00:57:17,160 --> 00:57:18,960
Speaker 3: they keep their foot on the gas the second half.

1204
00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 3: Santase State goes to USC next week. They do need

1205
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:24,320
Speaker 3: to break in two new receivers. They lost their top

1206
00:57:24,400 --> 00:57:27,840
Speaker 3: two receivers speaking of San Jose State, so maybe they

1207
00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:31,000
Speaker 3: want to see what the offense looks like, try to

1208
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:33,280
Speaker 3: get some rhythm with Starkle and his new receiving cores

1209
00:57:33,280 --> 00:57:36,840
Speaker 3: in live action. Another thing that kind of gets in

1210
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:39,439
Speaker 3: my head is Brent Brennan, you know, and he said

1211
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:40,960
Speaker 3: multiple freshmen are going to see the field, so I

1212
00:57:41,000 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 3: think that he does want, you know, hopefully if they

1213
00:57:42,920 --> 00:57:45,520
Speaker 3: build a big enough lead, they're gonna get some second

1214
00:57:45,560 --> 00:57:48,120
Speaker 3: and third teamers in there. But a couple of years ago,

1215
00:57:48,200 --> 00:57:51,560
Speaker 3: Santase State in twenty eighteen, Week two, they're playing the

1216
00:57:51,600 --> 00:57:55,000
Speaker 3: PAC twelve team. Week one, they're playing a big Sky

1217
00:57:55,160 --> 00:57:57,640
Speaker 3: team in UC Davis, and U C Davis beat them

1218
00:57:58,880 --> 00:58:02,080
Speaker 3: at home. Now that was a team Santaese team one

1219
00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:04,480
Speaker 3: and eleven. This is a Santaesay s team coming off

1220
00:58:04,520 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 3: and undeated regular season. But you know, I'm sure that

1221
00:58:07,360 --> 00:58:09,400
Speaker 3: he's hammering home that point to be ready for this game.

1222
00:58:09,440 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 3: Don't get caught looking ahead to USC, which I'm sure

1223
00:58:12,200 --> 00:58:14,800
Speaker 3: some of them might be. But if I see some

1224
00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:18,440
Speaker 3: signs of life from Southern Utah, and you know, Santase

1225
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:20,880
Speaker 3: State builds up, you know, let's say a three, three

1226
00:58:20,960 --> 00:58:24,680
Speaker 3: touchdown lead or more at halftime. I'll look Southern Utah

1227
00:58:24,680 --> 00:58:26,680
Speaker 3: on the second half because I fully expect San Jose

1228
00:58:26,800 --> 00:58:31,880
Speaker 3: State to just not show anything. Let's stay healthy. You know,

1229
00:58:31,960 --> 00:58:34,040
Speaker 3: they have a brutal Mountain West schedule. They go to

1230
00:58:34,280 --> 00:58:37,200
Speaker 3: USC next week, and then I could just expect the

1231
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:41,320
Speaker 3: second half to just be very conservative, maybe an underlook

1232
00:58:41,320 --> 00:58:44,160
Speaker 3: as well. So that's my SCS look.

1233
00:58:44,040 --> 00:58:44,400
Speaker 2: For the week.

1234
00:58:44,560 --> 00:58:46,960
Speaker 3: Like I said, as the season goes on, we will

1235
00:58:47,040 --> 00:58:51,320
Speaker 3: have much more fcs and so it's always my favorite segment,

1236
00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:53,560
Speaker 3: and then we will have loaded segments later in the

1237
00:58:53,640 --> 00:58:55,920
Speaker 3: season and ten whole weekend.

1238
00:58:56,480 --> 00:58:58,520
Speaker 6: You all don't remember the Georgia Southern game, do you.

1239
00:58:59,280 --> 00:59:00,960
Speaker 6: I don't think we have a guy on that field

1240
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:03,000
Speaker 6: that didn't play in the NFL. And about four or

1241
00:59:03,000 --> 00:59:05,280
Speaker 6: five of them were first round draft picks and they

1242
00:59:05,400 --> 00:59:07,280
Speaker 6: run through our ass like shit through a ten horn

1243
00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:08,800
Speaker 6: man and we could not stop them.

1244
00:59:09,200 --> 00:59:12,400
Speaker 3: I'm looking forward to although that Albama plays Mercer next week.

1245
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:15,920
Speaker 3: In Week two, I think Albana plays Mercer.

1246
00:59:16,320 --> 00:59:18,640
Speaker 2: We'll get into that Yeah, it's really important to me

1247
00:59:18,800 --> 00:59:20,440
Speaker 2: if you're not going to bet Southern Utah against San

1248
00:59:20,480 --> 00:59:22,640
Speaker 2: Jose State, which I agree with Stuck. I think that

1249
00:59:22,760 --> 00:59:25,040
Speaker 2: you you know, you'd have to back the Spartans here,

1250
00:59:25,080 --> 00:59:27,360
Speaker 2: and I believe that point spread's probably gonna balloon by

1251
00:59:27,400 --> 00:59:29,640
Speaker 2: the time it gets kicked off. But Southern Utah is

1252
00:59:29,680 --> 00:59:31,720
Speaker 2: who Arizona State's going to play in game one, So

1253
00:59:31,840 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 2: it's really important, you know, to see if Southern Utah

1254
00:59:34,360 --> 00:59:37,320
Speaker 2: is able to generate something through the air because Arizona

1255
00:59:37,360 --> 00:59:41,000
Speaker 2: State's secondary is one of the best in the nation. Uh,

1256
00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:44,439
Speaker 2: So really important there, because if Southern Utah can't throw

1257
00:59:44,480 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 2: the ball, uh, this is going to be hammer City

1258
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:49,800
Speaker 2: on the opener on the sun Devils the Thunderbirds.

1259
00:59:49,960 --> 00:59:50,120
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1260
00:59:50,160 --> 00:59:52,120
Speaker 3: And by the way, just something to keep in mind,

1261
00:59:52,320 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 3: teams playing their first game of the season against a

1262
00:59:55,440 --> 00:59:57,880
Speaker 3: team that already played so Leicster, we saw it a

1263
00:59:57,960 --> 01:00:01,120
Speaker 3: lot because of COVID and teams starting later, but generally speaking,

1264
01:00:01,160 --> 01:00:03,880
Speaker 3: this is a team playing in Week one against their

1265
01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:05,800
Speaker 3: first game against a team that already played Week zero.

1266
01:00:06,400 --> 01:00:10,080
Speaker 3: That team playing their first game historically has had an

1267
01:00:10,200 --> 01:00:12,200
Speaker 3: edge against the spread. You know, fifty six. I think

1268
01:00:12,280 --> 01:00:15,440
Speaker 3: fifty six percent against the spread historically, and what that

1269
01:00:15,520 --> 01:00:17,600
Speaker 3: speaks to I think is the you know you would

1270
01:00:17,600 --> 01:00:20,680
Speaker 3: think maybe intuitively, it's the opposite. The team gets to play,

1271
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:23,520
Speaker 3: they get to shake the rust off. But it's that

1272
01:00:23,760 --> 01:00:26,760
Speaker 3: film edge, right, So you play a game that team

1273
01:00:26,840 --> 01:00:29,520
Speaker 3: that hasn't played yet, they have nothing on film, they

1274
01:00:29,520 --> 01:00:31,200
Speaker 3: haven't shown anything, and they get to see what you

1275
01:00:31,320 --> 01:00:34,360
Speaker 3: did and then adjust. Well, you can't adjust, So keep

1276
01:00:34,440 --> 01:00:37,720
Speaker 3: that in mind for week one. We'll get into that

1277
01:00:37,840 --> 01:00:40,080
Speaker 3: next week as well. All right, before we get out

1278
01:00:40,120 --> 01:00:42,040
Speaker 3: of here, we do have a lot of recapping to

1279
01:00:42,120 --> 01:00:44,480
Speaker 3: do for win totals in futures, so let's go three

1280
01:00:44,520 --> 01:00:44,960
Speaker 3: and out.

1281
01:00:46,880 --> 01:00:47,040
Speaker 6: Two.

1282
01:00:47,920 --> 01:00:50,000
Speaker 2: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1283
01:00:51,280 --> 01:00:54,520
Speaker 3: All right, first down, we'll do one win total per

1284
01:00:54,680 --> 01:00:57,720
Speaker 3: conference max. If you end up saying a couple others,

1285
01:00:58,120 --> 01:01:00,720
Speaker 3: so be it. Make sure you check out Action network

1286
01:01:00,760 --> 01:01:02,800
Speaker 3: gap for all of our wind totals, which we've logged.

1287
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:08,720
Speaker 3: I'll start. I'll run down real quick, aac SMU over six.

1288
01:01:08,960 --> 01:01:11,080
Speaker 3: I'd still like it at six and a half. This

1289
01:01:11,240 --> 01:01:14,920
Speaker 3: team is loaded on offense, a top twenty five receiving room,

1290
01:01:15,120 --> 01:01:17,240
Speaker 3: top twenty five running back group, the top twenty five

1291
01:01:17,320 --> 01:01:20,520
Speaker 3: offensive line. They do lose their quarterback, but ten Or

1292
01:01:20,600 --> 01:01:23,080
Speaker 3: Mordecai from Oklahoma comes in. I also have a very

1293
01:01:23,120 --> 01:01:26,160
Speaker 3: talented freshman in Preston Stone. And where I think they're

1294
01:01:26,160 --> 01:01:28,040
Speaker 3: going to improve the most is on the defensive side

1295
01:01:28,080 --> 01:01:30,680
Speaker 3: of the ball. They bring in Jim Levitt from Florida Atlantic,

1296
01:01:30,760 --> 01:01:32,760
Speaker 3: one of my favorite defensive quarters. I think it's going

1297
01:01:32,800 --> 01:01:34,160
Speaker 3: to plug up some of the holes and I think

1298
01:01:34,240 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 3: his philosophy fits well with this aggressive mindset defense that

1299
01:01:39,000 --> 01:01:41,440
Speaker 3: likes to, you know, turn teams over and it's pretty

1300
01:01:41,440 --> 01:01:43,919
Speaker 3: aggressive by nature. They just need to plug up some holes.

1301
01:01:43,960 --> 01:01:46,440
Speaker 3: I think Levitt will do that. Moving on to the ACC,

1302
01:01:46,640 --> 01:01:49,760
Speaker 3: Georgia Tech under five wins, under four and a half.

1303
01:01:50,080 --> 01:01:52,600
Speaker 3: You know, even money is fine too. I still think

1304
01:01:52,640 --> 01:01:55,880
Speaker 3: that this is a transition period for Georgia Tech. This

1305
01:01:56,080 --> 01:01:58,320
Speaker 3: is almost like year one and a half. Right, you're

1306
01:01:58,400 --> 01:02:02,440
Speaker 3: changing from a triple option offense, changing everything splet's and

1307
01:02:02,520 --> 01:02:04,920
Speaker 3: all of your recruits are for the triple option, and

1308
01:02:05,000 --> 01:02:06,320
Speaker 3: then you have to do that and then you have

1309
01:02:06,400 --> 01:02:10,480
Speaker 3: a COVID year. I think it's still a work in progress.

1310
01:02:10,600 --> 01:02:14,240
Speaker 3: They play five teams on their schedule that have serious

1311
01:02:14,280 --> 01:02:20,240
Speaker 3: college football aspirations. Georgia Tech under packed, twelve Big ten.

1312
01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:23,680
Speaker 3: Let's go to the Big ten. Indiana under set eight

1313
01:02:23,880 --> 01:02:26,400
Speaker 3: under seven and a half wins. I like this team,

1314
01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:29,000
Speaker 3: but the schedule is brutal. I think that there's some

1315
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:32,440
Speaker 3: negative aggression coming for the Hoosiers, who last year just

1316
01:02:32,600 --> 01:02:36,240
Speaker 3: won a couple too many coin flip games, turnover regression,

1317
01:02:36,680 --> 01:02:39,800
Speaker 3: red zone regression, pretty much everything went their way. I

1318
01:02:39,880 --> 01:02:42,479
Speaker 3: can see that flipping this year, and that's assuming Panic

1319
01:02:42,680 --> 01:02:47,000
Speaker 3: stays healthy. He's had three season ending surgeries. We'll see

1320
01:02:47,000 --> 01:02:51,280
Speaker 3: if you can play all twelve games. Pac twelve favorite there,

1321
01:02:51,600 --> 01:02:56,880
Speaker 3: I'll say let's go with the Utah over best offensive line,

1322
01:02:57,080 --> 01:03:00,440
Speaker 3: best defensive line in the Pac twelve. That play you

1323
01:03:00,520 --> 01:03:03,360
Speaker 3: bring in a quarterback, Charlie Brewer from Baylor. He's just

1324
01:03:03,440 --> 01:03:06,480
Speaker 3: a winner. This defense is much more experience, played way

1325
01:03:06,520 --> 01:03:09,240
Speaker 3: better than I thought last year after losing so much talent.

1326
01:03:09,520 --> 01:03:13,560
Speaker 3: They'll be nasty. Utah has an identity. They might be favored.

1327
01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:16,640
Speaker 3: I think in eleven games this year, Utah over eight

1328
01:03:16,680 --> 01:03:19,360
Speaker 3: and a half. I think the juice is getting up there,

1329
01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:22,240
Speaker 3: but I'd still pay for it. SEC Bema under eleven

1330
01:03:22,280 --> 01:03:23,920
Speaker 3: and a half. It's just a numbers play. I make

1331
01:03:23,960 --> 01:03:25,520
Speaker 3: a ten and a half you have a lot of

1332
01:03:25,640 --> 01:03:27,400
Speaker 3: change on the offensive side of the ball. I think

1333
01:03:27,440 --> 01:03:30,080
Speaker 3: they end up dropping one of these road games, either

1334
01:03:30,080 --> 01:03:33,520
Speaker 3: at Auburn to close the year at Florida, or most

1335
01:03:33,640 --> 01:03:36,760
Speaker 3: likely at Texas A and M in the MAC Let's

1336
01:03:36,800 --> 01:03:39,439
Speaker 3: go NIU wonder. This team is just way too young

1337
01:03:39,640 --> 01:03:42,160
Speaker 3: and have way too many owls and Rocky Lombardi is

1338
01:03:42,200 --> 01:03:46,240
Speaker 3: not the solution a quarterback. Big twelve will go TCU over.

1339
01:03:47,240 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 3: I think, you know, they lost some town up the

1340
01:03:48,920 --> 01:03:51,520
Speaker 3: middle in that defense, particularly at linebacker and safety, but

1341
01:03:51,640 --> 01:03:54,120
Speaker 3: I think they'll plug those holes fine. Gary Patterson's defense

1342
01:03:54,160 --> 01:03:56,200
Speaker 3: will be fine. I expect a big jump on the

1343
01:03:56,240 --> 01:04:00,000
Speaker 3: offensive side of the ball with Max Duggan that offensive line,

1344
01:04:00,240 --> 01:04:04,640
Speaker 3: I expect to be better talent all over. TCU goes

1345
01:04:04,680 --> 01:04:08,560
Speaker 3: over their win total Sun Belt Louisiana under nine and

1346
01:04:08,600 --> 01:04:10,760
Speaker 3: a half. This team basically went five and one in

1347
01:04:10,840 --> 01:04:12,960
Speaker 3: coin flips. LASU made a fifty three yard field goal

1348
01:04:13,000 --> 01:04:14,600
Speaker 3: to win one game. You know, I had a thirty

1349
01:04:14,680 --> 01:04:17,400
Speaker 3: yard field goal missed by app State, and another I

1350
01:04:17,480 --> 01:04:20,240
Speaker 3: mean just you know, beat Georgia State and overtime. I mean,

1351
01:04:20,360 --> 01:04:22,760
Speaker 3: every coin flip game went their way. I think they're

1352
01:04:22,800 --> 01:04:25,520
Speaker 3: really gonna miss their two backs. You know, if they

1353
01:04:25,640 --> 01:04:28,120
Speaker 3: lose at Texas and at Liberty, they basically have to

1354
01:04:28,200 --> 01:04:30,400
Speaker 3: run the table to get the ten wins. This is

1355
01:04:30,440 --> 01:04:33,160
Speaker 3: an improved Sunbelt Conference top to bottom in my opinion,

1356
01:04:33,600 --> 01:04:38,320
Speaker 3: under nine and a half for Louisiana, Mountain West Boise

1357
01:04:38,560 --> 01:04:43,800
Speaker 3: under I just it's a tough schedule, and there's just

1358
01:04:44,280 --> 01:04:46,800
Speaker 3: I don't trust the offensive line still. The quarterback plays

1359
01:04:46,840 --> 01:04:49,480
Speaker 3: a little too inconsistent. I just think it's a tad

1360
01:04:49,560 --> 01:04:52,480
Speaker 3: too high. And finally we have to save the best

1361
01:04:52,640 --> 01:04:56,560
Speaker 3: last independence of going you mass over one and a

1362
01:04:56,600 --> 01:04:59,040
Speaker 3: half wins, pay the minus one fifty. They have four

1363
01:04:59,080 --> 01:05:01,960
Speaker 3: winnable games on their schedule against a number of teams

1364
01:05:02,000 --> 01:05:03,840
Speaker 3: who didn't play last year. We talked about how bad

1365
01:05:03,840 --> 01:05:05,760
Speaker 3: New Mexico State is. That's their road game.

1366
01:05:06,000 --> 01:05:06,160
Speaker 5: You know.

1367
01:05:06,200 --> 01:05:09,000
Speaker 3: They have home home game against Yukon, who didn't play

1368
01:05:09,080 --> 01:05:12,280
Speaker 3: last year. I didn't. They have two more home games

1369
01:05:12,360 --> 01:05:15,520
Speaker 3: against FCS teams that didn't play last year in Maine

1370
01:05:15,760 --> 01:05:19,840
Speaker 3: and Yale, Something Mail Maine and RhE Island. I think

1371
01:05:20,080 --> 01:05:22,320
Speaker 3: U bass is going over baby. Those are my favorite

1372
01:05:22,320 --> 01:05:23,360
Speaker 3: win totals COLN which you got.

1373
01:05:23,800 --> 01:05:25,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, just to be real quick, I'm gonna start off

1374
01:05:25,440 --> 01:05:27,080
Speaker 2: in the AC like you did. I'm gonna go South

1375
01:05:27,080 --> 01:05:29,640
Speaker 2: Florida on the under Jeff Scott as the new head coach.

1376
01:05:29,720 --> 01:05:32,440
Speaker 2: He came in as the offensive coordinator from Clemson, kind

1377
01:05:32,480 --> 01:05:34,480
Speaker 2: of in a co offensive coordinator role, and it has

1378
01:05:34,600 --> 01:05:37,520
Speaker 2: just not worked out there whatsoever. Their quarterback Jordan McLeod

1379
01:05:37,960 --> 01:05:40,080
Speaker 2: has transferred off. This is a team that was one

1380
01:05:40,160 --> 01:05:43,640
Speaker 2: hundred and sixth then offensive success rate, one hundred and

1381
01:05:43,680 --> 01:05:46,960
Speaker 2: twenty fifth in offensive finishing drives. This is supposed to

1382
01:05:46,960 --> 01:05:50,120
Speaker 2: be Jeff Scott's specialty, and South Florida somehow has gotten

1383
01:05:50,240 --> 01:05:53,160
Speaker 2: worse at that. They returned so much less than the

1384
01:05:53,240 --> 01:05:55,760
Speaker 2: national average in the year of the Super Senior. The

1385
01:05:55,880 --> 01:05:58,520
Speaker 2: number I think is good till three three and a

1386
01:05:58,560 --> 01:06:01,160
Speaker 2: half three two and a half under. I don't see

1387
01:06:01,160 --> 01:06:03,120
Speaker 2: a lot of wins on this schedule whatsoever for them.

1388
01:06:03,600 --> 01:06:05,920
Speaker 2: Surprise team in the ACC for me is going to

1389
01:06:05,960 --> 01:06:08,080
Speaker 2: be n C State. I love the wolf Pack this year.

1390
01:06:08,160 --> 01:06:12,080
Speaker 2: Devin Larry, explosive playmakers in the backfield and wide receiver,

1391
01:06:12,440 --> 01:06:16,880
Speaker 2: a defense that is absolutely legit. The schedule is super tough,

1392
01:06:16,960 --> 01:06:19,200
Speaker 2: but that doesn't mean that there isn't value in the number.

1393
01:06:19,680 --> 01:06:21,640
Speaker 2: Even though I project them around seven. I still think

1394
01:06:21,680 --> 01:06:24,080
Speaker 2: that they're going to go over ninety percent of their

1395
01:06:24,120 --> 01:06:28,600
Speaker 2: defense returns scheme from second year defensive coordinator Tony Gibson

1396
01:06:28,960 --> 01:06:32,320
Speaker 2: has just been fantastic last year. He exceeded expectations and

1397
01:06:32,400 --> 01:06:36,200
Speaker 2: I consider that as going to continue to grow. Next

1398
01:06:36,240 --> 01:06:38,040
Speaker 2: I'm going to move on to the Big Ten. We

1399
01:06:38,200 --> 01:06:40,000
Speaker 2: just talked about him on this podcast. I'm going to

1400
01:06:40,040 --> 01:06:41,959
Speaker 2: take Illinois to go over I mean it's the number

1401
01:06:42,000 --> 01:06:46,800
Speaker 2: that I projected four point one. Beilama. There may be

1402
01:06:46,920 --> 01:06:49,080
Speaker 2: a ceiling on Brett Bilama, but that doesn't mean that

1403
01:06:49,160 --> 01:06:50,800
Speaker 2: he's not a good coach, and that doesn't mean that

1404
01:06:50,880 --> 01:06:54,320
Speaker 2: he can't establish an identity, build something in the trench

1405
01:06:54,600 --> 01:06:56,880
Speaker 2: and overpower teams. And you could do that against some

1406
01:06:57,320 --> 01:06:59,160
Speaker 2: non conference play, you could do that against some of

1407
01:06:59,200 --> 01:07:01,160
Speaker 2: the teams in the Big and I think he's going

1408
01:07:01,200 --> 01:07:02,560
Speaker 2: to start off doing that this year. If you can

1409
01:07:02,560 --> 01:07:05,400
Speaker 2: get anything out of Ryan Walters in New DC to

1410
01:07:05,720 --> 01:07:09,400
Speaker 2: you know, be not the last and success rate and defense,

1411
01:07:09,480 --> 01:07:11,800
Speaker 2: then I actually think that Illinois can really do some

1412
01:07:11,920 --> 01:07:14,400
Speaker 2: damage and hang around in some games. We'll find out

1413
01:07:14,440 --> 01:07:16,720
Speaker 2: after Nebraska if they can get you know, some established

1414
01:07:16,800 --> 01:07:20,600
Speaker 2: rushing attack with Chase Brown, Ammi Brandon Peters at quarterback.

1415
01:07:20,720 --> 01:07:22,400
Speaker 2: So moving on from there, I'm going to go to

1416
01:07:22,440 --> 01:07:28,080
Speaker 2: Conference USA. Western Kentucky is still listened at five and

1417
01:07:28,120 --> 01:07:29,720
Speaker 2: a half on the win to This is the ultimate

1418
01:07:29,800 --> 01:07:31,280
Speaker 2: boom or bust team.

1419
01:07:32,200 --> 01:07:32,360
Speaker 3: You know.

1420
01:07:32,440 --> 01:07:35,240
Speaker 2: This is a team that was more defensive minded under

1421
01:07:35,280 --> 01:07:38,760
Speaker 2: Tyson Helton ranks top twenty five and success rate on defense.

1422
01:07:39,400 --> 01:07:42,320
Speaker 2: Same thing with Havoc. They've always had on defense, and

1423
01:07:42,440 --> 01:07:45,400
Speaker 2: now they go and get the offensive coordinator, quarterback, and

1424
01:07:45,520 --> 01:07:48,480
Speaker 2: wide receivers from Houston Baptist. The team that was able

1425
01:07:48,520 --> 01:07:50,880
Speaker 2: to put up four or five six hundred yards in

1426
01:07:50,920 --> 01:07:53,760
Speaker 2: a box score against teams like Texas Tech and Louisiana

1427
01:07:53,880 --> 01:07:56,360
Speaker 2: Tech and North Texas last year. So now Western Kentucky

1428
01:07:56,440 --> 01:07:58,880
Speaker 2: has both best on both sides. Like the win total

1429
01:07:58,920 --> 01:08:01,360
Speaker 2: over I like them to win the conference. Another team

1430
01:08:01,440 --> 01:08:03,560
Speaker 2: in that same conference that I like, we just talked

1431
01:08:03,600 --> 01:08:05,400
Speaker 2: about them. I like UTEP. They're on the way up.

1432
01:08:05,720 --> 01:08:08,919
Speaker 2: Data Demo. We've waited for this for years. It's taken

1433
01:08:09,000 --> 01:08:10,680
Speaker 2: him a couple of years to get the right players

1434
01:08:10,720 --> 01:08:13,760
Speaker 2: in place. He has his own style. He likes to

1435
01:08:13,800 --> 01:08:16,240
Speaker 2: play a bruising attack. He's got a right quarterback with

1436
01:08:16,360 --> 01:08:19,400
Speaker 2: a big arm, very positive and in the big time

1437
01:08:19,479 --> 01:08:22,400
Speaker 2: throws versus the turnover worth he plays utep is heading

1438
01:08:22,479 --> 01:08:24,720
Speaker 2: in the right direction. They started off getting their first

1439
01:08:24,760 --> 01:08:32,519
Speaker 2: win this weekend. After that, we're talking minor nation picks up. Guys.

1440
01:08:32,600 --> 01:08:34,680
Speaker 2: I got a helmet just for your guys' name, and.

1441
01:08:34,760 --> 01:08:36,280
Speaker 3: I have my shirt and I have a shirt. We're

1442
01:08:36,280 --> 01:08:36,479
Speaker 3: all in.

1443
01:08:36,600 --> 01:08:38,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have our shirt. We're all in on you guys.

1444
01:08:38,479 --> 01:08:40,839
Speaker 2: We're going to be swimming in our money like Scrooge

1445
01:08:40,920 --> 01:08:43,360
Speaker 2: McDuck and down on our mansion on the Rio Grand River.

1446
01:08:43,640 --> 01:08:46,439
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go in dependence after that Notre Dame

1447
01:08:46,520 --> 01:08:48,920
Speaker 2: under first play that I hit when when when everything

1448
01:08:49,000 --> 01:08:50,920
Speaker 2: hit the board back in, I don't even think it

1449
01:08:50,960 --> 01:08:53,080
Speaker 2: was spring. I think it was the winner. Everything that

1450
01:08:53,160 --> 01:08:56,240
Speaker 2: I've said, this is a team that returns forty four offense,

1451
01:08:56,280 --> 01:08:59,920
Speaker 2: fifty defense. New coordinator on the defensive side. I know

1452
01:09:00,120 --> 01:09:02,519
Speaker 2: he's a pretty good coordinator, but there is a scheme change.

1453
01:09:03,280 --> 01:09:06,240
Speaker 2: I don't think there's enough explosiveness on the offensive side

1454
01:09:06,240 --> 01:09:08,320
Speaker 2: of the ball. And it doesn't matter because Tommy Reez

1455
01:09:08,400 --> 01:09:11,559
Speaker 2: loves to run the ball as much as possible. Nine

1456
01:09:11,800 --> 01:09:14,040
Speaker 2: is a lot for this team and what it should

1457
01:09:14,080 --> 01:09:16,920
Speaker 2: be sort of a rebuilding year ten and two seems

1458
01:09:16,920 --> 01:09:18,880
Speaker 2: a little bit out of reach for them. One thing

1459
01:09:18,960 --> 01:09:20,720
Speaker 2: that I am on an island on the more I

1460
01:09:20,760 --> 01:09:22,559
Speaker 2: look around, I'm on an island on this. I'm taking

1461
01:09:22,720 --> 01:09:24,800
Speaker 2: Organ on the under it's a I project them at eight.

1462
01:09:25,080 --> 01:09:27,880
Speaker 2: The number nine seems a little high for me. I

1463
01:09:28,040 --> 01:09:30,840
Speaker 2: know that we talk about offensive returning production and tarp

1464
01:09:31,240 --> 01:09:34,320
Speaker 2: transfer activity. Transfer activity was really important to this Orgon team.

1465
01:09:34,360 --> 01:09:36,800
Speaker 2: They lost Tyler Shubg. He is now at Texas Tech,

1466
01:09:36,960 --> 01:09:39,800
Speaker 2: and every Organ fan will tell you, well, we have

1467
01:09:39,880 --> 01:09:42,320
Speaker 2: two great freshmen and they're going to take over for

1468
01:09:42,400 --> 01:09:45,439
Speaker 2: Anthony Brown, and okay, well that's a question markan Joe

1469
01:09:45,479 --> 01:09:47,760
Speaker 2: mooreh is going to have to schem around Anthony Brown,

1470
01:09:48,040 --> 01:09:50,280
Speaker 2: and he's going to have to schem around these new quarterbacks.

1471
01:09:50,520 --> 01:09:53,280
Speaker 2: And I just there's a ceiling on two freshmen. There's

1472
01:09:53,280 --> 01:09:55,639
Speaker 2: a ceiling on Anthony Brown. And meanwhile, on the defense,

1473
01:09:55,960 --> 01:09:58,160
Speaker 2: while everyone loves Thibodeau is an edge rusher and he

1474
01:09:58,160 --> 01:09:59,960
Speaker 2: should be the number one pick in the NFL draft,

1475
01:10:00,560 --> 01:10:03,200
Speaker 2: they cannot stop the run. And there are a lot

1476
01:10:03,200 --> 01:10:05,680
Speaker 2: of teams in the Pac twelve that just continue to

1477
01:10:05,800 --> 01:10:08,759
Speaker 2: run up the gut on this defense, so until Oregon

1478
01:10:08,880 --> 01:10:11,360
Speaker 2: solves that problem at Tim de Ruder is not the answer.

1479
01:10:12,280 --> 01:10:14,160
Speaker 2: Them going ten to two seems a little bit out

1480
01:10:14,160 --> 01:10:18,240
Speaker 2: of reach. Stanford. I told everybody on the PAC twelve

1481
01:10:18,240 --> 01:10:20,800
Speaker 2: podcasts that I was gonna wait until, you know, until

1482
01:10:20,840 --> 01:10:23,240
Speaker 2: we got towards the start of the season, because this

1483
01:10:23,360 --> 01:10:25,360
Speaker 2: number just kept going up. Four and a half's are

1484
01:10:25,400 --> 01:10:28,519
Speaker 2: sitting out there on Stanford under on the trees all

1485
01:10:28,600 --> 01:10:31,519
Speaker 2: the way. Again, this is a team that barely returns

1486
01:10:31,560 --> 01:10:33,640
Speaker 2: anything on both sides of the ball. David Shaw is

1487
01:10:33,720 --> 01:10:35,720
Speaker 2: playing a style of football where he wants to go

1488
01:10:35,840 --> 01:10:39,439
Speaker 2: with more running backs, more tight ends, more of a

1489
01:10:39,520 --> 01:10:42,560
Speaker 2: pro style play in a conference full of offenses that

1490
01:10:42,640 --> 01:10:46,080
Speaker 2: can have quick strike, it's not a good fit whatsoever.

1491
01:10:46,840 --> 01:10:48,760
Speaker 2: There is a lot missing from this team and a

1492
01:10:48,800 --> 01:10:50,680
Speaker 2: lot to be desired, especially on the defensive line, its

1493
01:10:50,720 --> 01:10:52,800
Speaker 2: side of the ball, and in the trenches. They have

1494
01:10:52,880 --> 01:10:57,320
Speaker 2: an all Power five schedule Kent Kansas State got wacked

1495
01:10:57,479 --> 01:10:59,559
Speaker 2: a week ago. They were hanging out around plus two.

1496
01:11:00,120 --> 01:11:01,800
Speaker 2: Now Kansas State is minus two and a half in

1497
01:11:01,840 --> 01:11:05,720
Speaker 2: the Oprah in Arlington on that fast surface against Stanford,

1498
01:11:06,120 --> 01:11:07,920
Speaker 2: We'll see how that plays out. But I like Stanford

1499
01:11:07,960 --> 01:11:10,800
Speaker 2: on the under Usula over seven talked about it way

1500
01:11:10,840 --> 01:11:15,320
Speaker 2: too much. Brian Gunderson, former Broyles Nominee Award nominee. I

1501
01:11:15,400 --> 01:11:17,040
Speaker 2: think he's going to be there to clean up DTR

1502
01:11:17,040 --> 01:11:18,559
Speaker 2: and we're going to find out this weekend. A week

1503
01:11:18,680 --> 01:11:22,280
Speaker 2: zero South Carolina under it. I don't know what to say.

1504
01:11:22,439 --> 01:11:25,400
Speaker 2: Four to three and a half three. There's not many

1505
01:11:25,439 --> 01:11:30,360
Speaker 2: winnable games on this schedule. Grat assistant zeb Noland has

1506
01:11:30,640 --> 01:11:32,360
Speaker 2: come out of his grat assistant role and he's now

1507
01:11:32,439 --> 01:11:35,639
Speaker 2: going to be quarterback. After Luke Dody got hurt, sprained

1508
01:11:35,640 --> 01:11:38,640
Speaker 2: his ankle. Doty should just miss one game, but it

1509
01:11:38,680 --> 01:11:41,439
Speaker 2: doesn't matter. There's not a lot on this team. Fifty

1510
01:11:41,479 --> 01:11:43,560
Speaker 2: three percent on offense comes back, forty one percent of

1511
01:11:43,560 --> 01:11:46,880
Speaker 2: the defense comes back. Shane Biemer in a complete rebuilding project.

1512
01:11:47,600 --> 01:11:50,080
Speaker 2: Next year will be year zero for South Carolina. That's

1513
01:11:50,080 --> 01:11:51,840
Speaker 2: how bad it's going to be. I don't understand the

1514
01:11:51,880 --> 01:11:54,560
Speaker 2: win total whatsoever, ole miss. I'm going to take the

1515
01:11:54,640 --> 01:11:57,360
Speaker 2: over and I love a fifteen to one on winning

1516
01:11:57,400 --> 01:12:00,800
Speaker 2: the West Division. Let's just say call it. Football is

1517
01:12:00,920 --> 01:12:03,719
Speaker 2: leaning more and more towards being an offensive game every

1518
01:12:03,800 --> 01:12:06,920
Speaker 2: single season. Saban realized that seven years ago and now

1519
01:12:07,000 --> 01:12:09,920
Speaker 2: Lane Kiffin is here to make every single game a

1520
01:12:10,080 --> 01:12:13,320
Speaker 2: boat race, and he wants to have the speediest boat

1521
01:12:13,680 --> 01:12:15,639
Speaker 2: on the water, and that's what he has this year.

1522
01:12:15,800 --> 01:12:18,479
Speaker 2: So I like Old Missus a long shot to try

1523
01:12:18,520 --> 01:12:21,519
Speaker 2: to get some things done. Especially they could potentially beat Alabama.

1524
01:12:21,560 --> 01:12:23,360
Speaker 2: They were close to doing it last year on a sloppy,

1525
01:12:23,400 --> 01:12:27,240
Speaker 2: wet field. So we'll see LSU on the under. I

1526
01:12:27,280 --> 01:12:28,720
Speaker 2: think eight and a half is a little bit too much.

1527
01:12:28,800 --> 01:12:30,200
Speaker 2: It it's a little bit too much. It's the number

1528
01:12:30,200 --> 01:12:34,160
Speaker 2: I projected. The sevens. News coming out of there just

1529
01:12:34,320 --> 01:12:38,360
Speaker 2: continues to be a little head scratching from a defensive standpoint.

1530
01:12:38,800 --> 01:12:41,000
Speaker 2: From an offensive standpoint, don't know who's running the ball,

1531
01:12:41,120 --> 01:12:43,920
Speaker 2: Max Johnson, what's behind him? From a quarterback perspective, the

1532
01:12:44,000 --> 01:12:48,200
Speaker 2: depth took a hit with Miles Brennan having injury. Lots

1533
01:12:48,200 --> 01:12:51,200
Speaker 2: of questions out of LSU and the fact that they

1534
01:12:51,240 --> 01:12:55,960
Speaker 2: are trying to replicate what happened in twenty nineteen is impossible.

1535
01:12:56,160 --> 01:12:58,040
Speaker 2: The Joe Burrow is not walking through the door. He

1536
01:12:58,120 --> 01:12:59,920
Speaker 2: was one of the most accurate passers of all time.

1537
01:13:00,240 --> 01:13:02,920
Speaker 2: That's not in. You know what you have under center

1538
01:13:03,000 --> 01:13:05,120
Speaker 2: right now? And Joe Brady calling the plays is now

1539
01:13:05,160 --> 01:13:07,479
Speaker 2: in the NFL and being paid handsomely, and you don't

1540
01:13:07,520 --> 01:13:09,880
Speaker 2: have Joe Brady up in the press box. So I'm

1541
01:13:09,920 --> 01:13:12,200
Speaker 2: gonna stick with LSU on the under. And my last

1542
01:13:12,240 --> 01:13:14,599
Speaker 2: one is not a win total. It's just that app

1543
01:13:14,640 --> 01:13:16,720
Speaker 2: State is not priced correctly. We'll see what we get

1544
01:13:16,720 --> 01:13:18,559
Speaker 2: out of Chase price out.

1545
01:13:18,600 --> 01:13:20,559
Speaker 3: You can save that for a second down because we've

1546
01:13:20,560 --> 01:13:23,360
Speaker 3: got to go over our favorite futures. Oh, I'm gonna

1547
01:13:23,400 --> 01:13:25,320
Speaker 3: let you say. I'm gonna let you save app State.

1548
01:13:25,880 --> 01:13:29,439
Speaker 3: Phenomenal stuff there. Let's move right into second down. That's

1549
01:13:29,479 --> 01:13:32,960
Speaker 3: our favorite futures. I'm gonna go quickly, and I've content

1550
01:13:33,040 --> 01:13:35,479
Speaker 3: out there. You can read all about it. Look long shots,

1551
01:13:35,479 --> 01:13:37,800
Speaker 3: I think worth taking kent State fourteen to one. If

1552
01:13:37,840 --> 01:13:40,880
Speaker 3: it's ten to one, anything above there, wide open conference,

1553
01:13:40,920 --> 01:13:43,599
Speaker 3: their division, questions about a lot of their teams the way.

1554
01:13:43,640 --> 01:13:46,639
Speaker 3: If they play offense, they have a shot. It's the Mac.

1555
01:13:47,000 --> 01:13:50,000
Speaker 3: Go read my mac manifesto. Western Kentucky colin already touched

1556
01:13:50,040 --> 01:13:52,680
Speaker 3: on it. Boom or bust team, high variance team in

1557
01:13:52,760 --> 01:13:55,600
Speaker 3: a bad conference. If that offense works out, they have

1558
01:13:55,680 --> 01:13:57,479
Speaker 3: a shot. I'm a lot higher on Nevada than I

1559
01:13:57,520 --> 01:13:59,640
Speaker 3: think the rest of the world, and I think the

1560
01:13:59,720 --> 01:14:03,000
Speaker 3: gap between them and Boise is nothing. Plus five hundred

1561
01:14:03,080 --> 01:14:06,160
Speaker 3: to win the Mountain West with Carson strong back.

1562
01:14:06,280 --> 01:14:06,960
Speaker 6: I love.

1563
01:14:16,040 --> 01:14:18,439
Speaker 3: Iowa State futures. Get them in somehow to make the

1564
01:14:18,479 --> 01:14:20,600
Speaker 3: Big twelve. I took a shot on to the win

1565
01:14:20,640 --> 01:14:23,960
Speaker 3: the national title. I think the gap between them and Oklahoma.

1566
01:14:24,200 --> 01:14:25,600
Speaker 3: I just love this. Iwas they do it. It was

1567
01:14:25,640 --> 01:14:27,960
Speaker 3: the last shot for them. But there's so much to like.

1568
01:14:28,360 --> 01:14:31,400
Speaker 3: Georgia to make the playoff plus one seventy five. Many

1569
01:14:31,439 --> 01:14:33,240
Speaker 3: ways they can get to the Control playoffs, starting with

1570
01:14:33,320 --> 01:14:35,679
Speaker 3: a win over Clemson to start the year. They finally

1571
01:14:35,720 --> 01:14:39,080
Speaker 3: have an offense. Second match that always stingy defense whiskey

1572
01:14:39,160 --> 01:14:41,200
Speaker 3: to win the West, Wisconsin to win the West. I

1573
01:14:41,240 --> 01:14:42,960
Speaker 3: think they're the best team in the division. I think,

1574
01:14:43,280 --> 01:14:45,240
Speaker 3: you know, merch is gonna be better. And ultimately they

1575
01:14:45,320 --> 01:14:48,240
Speaker 3: host Iowa. That's and they're schedules easier. That's gonna be

1576
01:14:48,280 --> 01:14:49,880
Speaker 3: the difference. I think that's way too cheap of minus

1577
01:14:49,880 --> 01:14:52,439
Speaker 3: one twenty five. Same thing with Washington. I think Washington

1578
01:14:52,479 --> 01:14:55,800
Speaker 3: and Oregon are close to equal. Washington win the norths

1579
01:14:55,840 --> 01:14:58,400
Speaker 3: plus one thirty five, they host the Oregon. I love

1580
01:14:58,479 --> 01:14:59,960
Speaker 3: that and I was going to state. I took a

1581
01:15:00,040 --> 01:15:02,960
Speaker 3: shot on to win the Pac twelve because I'm higher

1582
01:15:03,000 --> 01:15:07,559
Speaker 3: on them than most and that's it for my future.

1583
01:15:07,640 --> 01:15:10,600
Speaker 2: What do you got Yeah, from a future's perspective, I

1584
01:15:10,800 --> 01:15:13,120
Speaker 2: just the number is not high enough for what Cincinnati

1585
01:15:13,160 --> 01:15:15,559
Speaker 2: should be priced to win the AAC. I know it's

1586
01:15:16,080 --> 01:15:18,759
Speaker 2: somewhere fluctuating between minus two hundred and minus two fifty.

1587
01:15:19,560 --> 01:15:21,320
Speaker 2: That is about what the money line is going to be.

1588
01:15:21,479 --> 01:15:23,840
Speaker 2: Remember that the AAC is now like the Big Twelve.

1589
01:15:24,320 --> 01:15:28,000
Speaker 2: It's a round robin schedule where the top two teams

1590
01:15:28,000 --> 01:15:30,760
Speaker 2: will play each other. It's no longer divisions where if

1591
01:15:30,960 --> 01:15:33,760
Speaker 2: Cincinnati was to drop a game to Central Florida, that

1592
01:15:33,800 --> 01:15:37,080
Speaker 2: doesn't necessarily knock them out of the championship game. That number,

1593
01:15:37,200 --> 01:15:39,360
Speaker 2: you know, is playable up to minus two fifty. So

1594
01:15:39,520 --> 01:15:42,400
Speaker 2: in the AAC that's pretty simple. But the play that

1595
01:15:42,439 --> 01:15:45,160
Speaker 2: I really love in the Big twelve is TCU to

1596
01:15:45,479 --> 01:15:48,240
Speaker 2: make the Big twelve championship game. I'm not saying they're

1597
01:15:48,240 --> 01:15:50,160
Speaker 2: going to win it, but there are props out there

1598
01:15:50,240 --> 01:15:52,920
Speaker 2: for TCU to make the championship game. That has value

1599
01:15:52,920 --> 01:15:54,760
Speaker 2: all the way down to four to one. It's not

1600
01:15:54,920 --> 01:15:57,400
Speaker 2: being priced that way, and They have a perfect hedge

1601
01:15:57,479 --> 01:15:59,880
Speaker 2: because their last game of the season is against Iowa State,

1602
01:16:00,040 --> 01:16:02,840
Speaker 2: a team that everybody has slotted in at number two

1603
01:16:03,080 --> 01:16:05,439
Speaker 2: to go to the Big Twelve championship game. It's a

1604
01:16:05,520 --> 01:16:07,679
Speaker 2: great way to hedge out of your ticket on TCU,

1605
01:16:07,800 --> 01:16:09,519
Speaker 2: So try to find that them to go to the

1606
01:16:09,600 --> 01:16:13,920
Speaker 2: championship game after that. Wisconsin, just the fact that their

1607
01:16:13,960 --> 01:16:18,439
Speaker 2: schedule is a little bit easier than Iowa's. Minnesota's defense

1608
01:16:18,600 --> 01:16:21,080
Speaker 2: is a huge question mark. Nebraska is one of the

1609
01:16:21,120 --> 01:16:23,599
Speaker 2: bigger question marks in all of college football. The division

1610
01:16:23,680 --> 01:16:26,760
Speaker 2: is there for Wisconsin to take. I know it's a

1611
01:16:26,880 --> 01:16:29,400
Speaker 2: number that's sitting above minus one fifty. But at the

1612
01:16:29,400 --> 01:16:32,320
Speaker 2: same time, they host Iowa, so the big games that

1613
01:16:32,400 --> 01:16:34,439
Speaker 2: they need that they'll have them at home. I am

1614
01:16:34,479 --> 01:16:36,560
Speaker 2: a believer in Graham Mertz coming back. I am a

1615
01:16:36,640 --> 01:16:41,400
Speaker 2: believer in Jalen Berger having explosive plays. Western Kentucky down

1616
01:16:41,439 --> 01:16:43,920
Speaker 2: to seven to one is a buy utsa for the

1617
01:16:44,000 --> 01:16:46,760
Speaker 2: division in the West that's not been talked about enough

1618
01:16:46,800 --> 01:16:49,320
Speaker 2: since here McCormick is a legit one of the best

1619
01:16:49,400 --> 01:16:52,400
Speaker 2: running backs in all of college football. Their head coach

1620
01:16:52,640 --> 01:16:54,840
Speaker 2: is on his way to coaching in the SEC or

1621
01:16:54,920 --> 01:16:58,600
Speaker 2: the Big ten. They are not talked about enough. I

1622
01:16:58,640 --> 01:17:00,639
Speaker 2: don't think we've given the road Runners enough love here.

1623
01:17:00,920 --> 01:17:02,759
Speaker 2: I like them over I like them to win the West.

1624
01:17:03,040 --> 01:17:05,200
Speaker 3: The UTSA Roadrunners.

1625
01:17:06,080 --> 01:17:09,200
Speaker 2: Maybe we're going to be big players on them later

1626
01:17:09,240 --> 01:17:12,280
Speaker 2: this year, especially since Sara mccormicker outstanding back. I'm going

1627
01:17:12,360 --> 01:17:14,320
Speaker 2: to go Utah and the PAC twelve South. I think

1628
01:17:14,360 --> 01:17:17,519
Speaker 2: the number is finally coming down. You know, it was

1629
01:17:17,640 --> 01:17:20,760
Speaker 2: priced incorrectly for a very long time. They always priced

1630
01:17:20,800 --> 01:17:23,360
Speaker 2: Arizona State correctly at plus two hundred to win the South.

1631
01:17:23,640 --> 01:17:25,560
Speaker 2: Utah is finally now getting around that number. If you

1632
01:17:25,600 --> 01:17:27,519
Speaker 2: can find it two fifty, I think it's worth a

1633
01:17:27,560 --> 01:17:29,439
Speaker 2: little bit of a play. I mentioned Ole miss at

1634
01:17:29,479 --> 01:17:31,639
Speaker 2: fifteen to one to win the West. Of course that's

1635
01:17:31,640 --> 01:17:34,280
Speaker 2: a hedge against Alabama heads up. But the one I

1636
01:17:34,439 --> 01:17:37,280
Speaker 2: like the most that has value is app State at

1637
01:17:37,400 --> 01:17:40,000
Speaker 2: four to one to win the Sun Belt. And this

1638
01:17:40,160 --> 01:17:42,519
Speaker 2: isn't so much me saying that Appalachian State is going

1639
01:17:42,600 --> 01:17:45,760
Speaker 2: to beat Coastal Carolina or beat Louisiana. But if you

1640
01:17:45,840 --> 01:17:47,960
Speaker 2: look at their schedule, there's only one game on that

1641
01:17:48,040 --> 01:17:51,320
Speaker 2: schedule that matters, and that is the Coastal Carolina game.

1642
01:17:51,439 --> 01:17:53,439
Speaker 2: To win that Division and go to the Sun Belt

1643
01:17:53,520 --> 01:17:56,679
Speaker 2: Championship game. And right now, the way they're power rated,

1644
01:17:56,800 --> 01:17:58,720
Speaker 2: not just the Action Network power ratings that you can

1645
01:17:58,760 --> 01:18:01,840
Speaker 2: go to any other power rating. Look, Coastal Carolina and

1646
01:18:01,920 --> 01:18:04,839
Speaker 2: app State are neck and neck and power rating everywhere.

1647
01:18:04,920 --> 01:18:07,920
Speaker 2: So I don't understand why someone like Coastal Carolina would

1648
01:18:07,960 --> 01:18:10,240
Speaker 2: be plus one fifty to win the Sunbelt and app

1649
01:18:10,280 --> 01:18:13,200
Speaker 2: State would be plus four hundred. They're gonna play each

1650
01:18:13,240 --> 01:18:15,240
Speaker 2: other heads up. It's gonna be a revenge game from

1651
01:18:15,320 --> 01:18:18,440
Speaker 2: last year. App State made a mistake. Coastal Carolina capitalized.

1652
01:18:19,120 --> 01:18:21,040
Speaker 2: It's another game that's gonna be played this year that's

1653
01:18:21,040 --> 01:18:23,840
Speaker 2: gonna be neck and neck with within one possession game

1654
01:18:23,920 --> 01:18:26,719
Speaker 2: all the way to the end. So the price really

1655
01:18:26,880 --> 01:18:29,840
Speaker 2: is what's dictating that play app State four to one

1656
01:18:29,880 --> 01:18:30,479
Speaker 2: for the sun Belt.

1657
01:18:30,920 --> 01:18:32,600
Speaker 3: All right? And then finally before we get out of here,

1658
01:18:33,040 --> 01:18:38,479
Speaker 3: third down, let's talk favorite Week zero bet. I'll let

1659
01:18:38,720 --> 01:18:41,040
Speaker 3: you start. What's your favorite Week zero bet?

1660
01:18:41,400 --> 01:18:43,240
Speaker 2: Yeah? My favorite bet for Week zero is going to

1661
01:18:43,280 --> 01:18:46,200
Speaker 2: be the under on Illinois and Nebraska. When you look

1662
01:18:46,240 --> 01:18:49,360
Speaker 2: at these two teams, they're both hell bent on establishing

1663
01:18:49,520 --> 01:18:52,600
Speaker 2: the run. Brett Bilama led Illinois team is going to

1664
01:18:52,680 --> 01:18:55,960
Speaker 2: run Chase Brown, Chase Hayden, and a stable of running backs.

1665
01:18:56,000 --> 01:18:59,000
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter field positioned down a distance. They want

1666
01:18:59,080 --> 01:19:03,400
Speaker 2: to establish the not typically very fast. This is a

1667
01:19:03,479 --> 01:19:06,120
Speaker 2: team that wasn't very good in rushing success rate last year,

1668
01:19:06,280 --> 01:19:08,920
Speaker 2: so it's going to be a slow paced probably not

1669
01:19:09,000 --> 01:19:10,960
Speaker 2: move the chains very much. Could be a lot of punts.

1670
01:19:10,960 --> 01:19:13,120
Speaker 2: And then you look at the Nebraska side. They want

1671
01:19:13,160 --> 01:19:15,960
Speaker 2: somebody other than Adrian Martinez to run the ball. Yes,

1672
01:19:16,040 --> 01:19:19,439
Speaker 2: Adrian Martinez is their best weapon, but he's also fumbled

1673
01:19:19,479 --> 01:19:22,040
Speaker 2: over thirty five times in three years. They have a

1674
01:19:22,120 --> 01:19:25,160
Speaker 2: stable of running backs and nobody has really stood out

1675
01:19:25,520 --> 01:19:27,920
Speaker 2: from a usc transfer to some of the in house

1676
01:19:27,960 --> 01:19:30,120
Speaker 2: recruits that they have. They're going to run through their

1677
01:19:30,320 --> 01:19:32,560
Speaker 2: entire stable of running backs to figure out who is

1678
01:19:32,640 --> 01:19:35,240
Speaker 2: going to run the ball other than Adrian Martinez. I

1679
01:19:35,320 --> 01:19:38,040
Speaker 2: expect this to be a very slow paced game. It's

1680
01:19:38,120 --> 01:19:40,160
Speaker 2: being played in the day during the sun, while some

1681
01:19:40,240 --> 01:19:43,000
Speaker 2: of these teams have been practicing at night. There's crosswinds

1682
01:19:43,080 --> 01:19:46,160
Speaker 2: going on for special teams usage. I like under fifty

1683
01:19:46,200 --> 01:19:48,439
Speaker 2: five here. I'd play it down to fifty four. Yeah,

1684
01:19:48,439 --> 01:19:50,320
Speaker 2: I agree, I like the under there. I think that

1685
01:19:51,280 --> 01:19:54,200
Speaker 2: look the Nebraska offense, you lose Wandal Robinson. I have

1686
01:19:54,320 --> 01:19:56,360
Speaker 2: questions about who they're throwing it to. You have three

1687
01:19:56,439 --> 01:20:00,799
Speaker 2: freshmen starting on the offensive line. Illinois side wide receivers

1688
01:20:00,840 --> 01:20:04,560
Speaker 2: are very underwhelming. I think the Nebraska defense, which is

1689
01:20:04,760 --> 01:20:08,240
Speaker 2: the strength of this team, can you know linebacker? Their

1690
01:20:08,280 --> 01:20:09,799
Speaker 2: secondary is excellent, can really.

1691
01:20:09,680 --> 01:20:13,240
Speaker 3: Match up here. I do have some nightmares about last

1692
01:20:13,320 --> 01:20:16,120
Speaker 3: year when Illinois just handed it all fifty two times

1693
01:20:16,160 --> 01:20:19,880
Speaker 3: in Renver three hundred yards and to a pretty easy victory.

1694
01:20:20,280 --> 01:20:22,760
Speaker 3: But I think Nebraska's defense will show up for this game.

1695
01:20:22,800 --> 01:20:25,519
Speaker 3: I think it'll be slower paced, don't expect much from

1696
01:20:25,560 --> 01:20:28,479
Speaker 3: either passing attack, so I agree I like under fifty five.

1697
01:20:28,640 --> 01:20:30,360
Speaker 3: Two other quick looks. I do think that there's value

1698
01:20:30,400 --> 01:20:35,120
Speaker 3: on UTEP minor Nation under ten against lowly New Mexico's State,

1699
01:20:35,160 --> 01:20:38,040
Speaker 3: who's the worst team in FBS by far, And maybe

1700
01:20:38,120 --> 01:20:40,360
Speaker 3: take a look at Southern Utah for the second half.

1701
01:20:40,720 --> 01:20:44,639
Speaker 3: If San Jose State is blowing this game open, there's

1702
01:20:44,680 --> 01:20:46,360
Speaker 3: a good chance they just take their foot off the

1703
01:20:46,439 --> 01:20:48,800
Speaker 3: gas and rest all their starters. With USC on deck,

1704
01:20:49,320 --> 01:20:51,679
Speaker 3: y'all have to see some life from Southern Utah. Maybe

1705
01:20:52,080 --> 01:20:54,960
Speaker 3: an under a second half under is also worth a look,

1706
01:20:55,040 --> 01:20:56,800
Speaker 3: but I agree, I think my favorite bet of the

1707
01:20:56,800 --> 01:20:59,760
Speaker 3: weekend is under fifty five in Nebraska. What better way

1708
01:20:59,800 --> 01:21:02,720
Speaker 3: to off the season, and the sweat and under and

1709
01:21:02,800 --> 01:21:06,880
Speaker 3: then bet utap as a nine and a half ten

1710
01:21:07,000 --> 01:21:10,640
Speaker 3: point road favorite, So we'll end it there. Thanks to

1711
01:21:11,240 --> 01:21:15,040
Speaker 3: now our colleague Gret McMurphy, Thanks as always to Colin Wilson,

1712
01:21:15,680 --> 01:21:19,080
Speaker 3: and thank you for listening. Make sure you subscribe Big

1713
01:21:19,160 --> 01:21:21,960
Speaker 3: Bets on Campus, brought to you by win Bet. Wherever

1714
01:21:22,000 --> 01:21:24,519
Speaker 3: you listen to to podcasts, leave a review. We have

1715
01:21:25,400 --> 01:21:29,240
Speaker 3: a bunch of giveaways coming. There is some awesome reviews

1716
01:21:29,720 --> 01:21:32,920
Speaker 3: and I have about eight names listed. We'll do them

1717
01:21:33,000 --> 01:21:36,040
Speaker 3: next week. If you leave great review, I'll probably add

1718
01:21:36,040 --> 01:21:37,759
Speaker 3: you to the list. We'll send you a year in prizes.

1719
01:21:37,880 --> 01:21:40,200
Speaker 3: But tell a friend, telling enemy. Appreciate all of your support.

1720
01:21:40,880 --> 01:21:42,760
Speaker 3: Try for us to continue to get to work because

1721
01:21:42,800 --> 01:21:46,040
Speaker 3: we'll be back next week with a week one preview.

1722
01:21:46,200 --> 01:21:47,920
Speaker 3: You thought this was a lot, wait till next week.

1723
01:21:49,040 --> 01:21:52,120
Speaker 3: Enjoy your weekends, enjoy the college football. We'll catch you

1724
01:21:52,120 --> 01:21:52,479
Speaker 3: all later.

1725
01:21:52,560 --> 01:21:53,720
Speaker 2: Cheers, peace out,