Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: We're less than forty days away from election day in
Speaker 2: the US and Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck
Speaker 2: and neck in the national polls. But as November fifth looms,
Speaker 2: what's really going to move the needle? Are voters in
Speaker 2: a handful of swing states and their feelings about a
Speaker 2: handful of issues, abortion, democracy, immigration, and voter's top issue
Speaker 2: the economy.
Speaker 1: When we ask them, is the economy on the right
Speaker 1: or wrong track? Sixty seven percent still say the economies
Speaker 1: on the wrong track.
Speaker 2: That's Wendy Benjaminson, a senior editor for Bloomberg News. For
Speaker 2: the past year, Wendy and her team have partnered with
Speaker 2: Morning Consult on a series of polls that ask about
Speaker 2: those key issues in those seven key.
Speaker 1: States Arizona, Nevada, Grgia, North Carolina, and the Blue Wall
Speaker 1: of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Speaker 2: Today, the results from the penultimate poll before November are in,
Speaker 2: and a race that many once thought was Trump's to
Speaker 2: lose is getting closer. When it comes to who those
Speaker 2: likely voters trust to steer the US economy. Harris is
Speaker 2: catching up today on the show We Dig into New
Speaker 2: polling data from Bloomberg and Morning Console to understand what
Speaker 2: likely voters in these seven states say about the economic
Speaker 2: policies Harris and Trump are proposing and who they're more
Speaker 2: likely to vote for in November. This is the Big
Speaker 2: Take DC Podcast. I'm Sarah Holder. Thank you so much
Speaker 2: for being here.
Speaker 1: Wendy, thanks for having me.
Speaker 2: Before we get into what we've learned from the polling
Speaker 2: data we just got today, I want you to give
Speaker 2: us a little bit of a level set. There's a
Speaker 2: lot of skepticism towards how much we can lean on
Speaker 2: polling in elections, So let's be upfront. Who did we
Speaker 2: pull and how should listeners think about this data we're
Speaker 2: about to dig into.
Speaker 1: So over the last year, starting in October of twenty
Speaker 1: twenty three, every month, we have pulled a sample of
Speaker 1: registered voters in the seven key states that will likely
Speaker 1: decide the election. These are all states that have swung
Speaker 1: in recent years, hence the name swing States, and the
Speaker 1: path to two hundred and seventy electoral votes, which either
Speaker 1: nominee needs to capture the White House, goes through these states.
Speaker 1: Beginning in August, however, we layered on to those registered
Speaker 1: voters the likely voters, people who said they are actually
Speaker 1: motivated and interested enough to get up and submit a ballot,
Speaker 1: either by mail or in person, and that early voting
Speaker 1: has started, And that in itself makes these polls a
Speaker 1: little more accurate because these are the people who actually
Speaker 1: say they're going to vote.
Speaker 2: And how many voters are we talking about here.
Speaker 1: Well, we're talking about close to six thousand voters. But
Speaker 1: this is a statistical sample, six thousand people in swing states.
Speaker 1: We've waited them for the demographics in each state, for
Speaker 1: the income levels in each state, for voting patterns in
Speaker 1: each state, so that we have a smart statistical sample
Speaker 1: of the US electorate. Voters should consider this data a
Speaker 1: snapshot in time. A lot can happen in a short
Speaker 1: amount of time. I mean, on the fourth of July,
Speaker 1: Joe Biden was the nominee. We've had two assassination attempts
Speaker 1: on Trump, so we can't say that this is how
Speaker 1: the race looks on November fifth. We can only say
Speaker 1: this is how it looks right now. So what we
Speaker 1: really wanted to see here was whose campaign has the momentum,
Speaker 1: whose campaign seems to be working.
Speaker 2: So the big question on everyone's mind Wendy is which
Speaker 2: campaign does have the momentum? How close is this race
Speaker 2: looking in these key states based on what we learn today?
Speaker 2: Is it still looking super super close.
Speaker 1: It's a squeaker. It's really a squeaker. But but Kamala
Speaker 1: Harris right now, the Democratic nominee, has the momentum. She
Speaker 1: has a within the margin of error lead, meaning one
Speaker 1: to two to three point ish leads in most of
Speaker 1: the seven states. I think she goes outside the margin
Speaker 1: of error in Pennsylvania, where she has spent I should
Speaker 1: say a tremendous amount of time and money. She must
Speaker 1: win Pennsylvania as she knows that she's really going for it.
Speaker 1: Trump is not clearly ahead in any of those seven states. Furthermore,
Speaker 1: Harris has narrowed the gap with Trump on who do
Speaker 1: you trust to handle the economy? He is still ahead
Speaker 1: on that question, but in August he was ahead by
Speaker 1: six points. In September he is ahead by only four points.
Speaker 1: She has also increased her lead on who is better
Speaker 1: suited to help the middle class, and her economic policy
Speaker 1: positions are more popular than Biden's.
Speaker 2: So how did likely voters respond to those policies? Harris
Speaker 2: has been promoting.
Speaker 1: Very well, in a nutshell, we gave the voters in
Speaker 1: these swing states a blind taste test that said, here's
Speaker 1: some policy proposals. In fact, what we all we said
Speaker 1: in the question was please indicate if you support or
Speaker 1: oppose each of the following policy proposals without telling them
Speaker 1: this was Donald Trump's, this was Kamala Harris's. The most
Speaker 1: popular policy proposal is to eliminate or avoid taxes on
Speaker 1: Social Security benefits. Eighty two percent of people support that.
Speaker 1: That is a both policy. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Speaker 1: both do that. But then as you go down in
Speaker 1: popularity too, corporate landlords who buy up single family homes,
Speaker 1: that's a Harris proposal. Seventy seven percent of voters, these
Speaker 1: are Republicans and Democrats support that policy. You have seventy
Speaker 1: nine percent support a federal ban on price gouging on
Speaker 1: food and groceries. That's a Harris one. Seventy four percent
Speaker 1: support raising taxes on those who make more than four
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars a year. And then when you get
Speaker 1: into ones that are Trump policies, such as raising the
Speaker 1: cap for state and local tax deductions in high tax states,
Speaker 1: that's a fifty percent that's a Trump policy, or fifty
Speaker 1: two percent support for the universal ten percent tariff on
Speaker 1: imported goods. So not only are people trusting her more
Speaker 1: to handle the economy, they're saying they like her ideas more.
Speaker 2: Well. It's interesting Harris is in this unique bind where
Speaker 2: she's running both on Biden's record as part of his
Speaker 2: administration right now and as this change maker. Does it
Speaker 2: look like voters hold Harris responsible at all for the
Speaker 2: economic challenges they've had the past few years.
Speaker 1: That surprised me. No, they do not, not as much
Speaker 1: as they blame Joe Biden. Still, Donald Trump has been
Speaker 1: trying day after day after day to wrap Joe Biden's
Speaker 1: economic policies around her neck. And you know, let's be fair,
Speaker 1: she's the current vice president. She had a role supposedly
Speaker 1: in some of these things, so she can and perhaps
Speaker 1: should be held responsible for them. But voters really aren't
Speaker 1: seeing it that way. They are buying into her message
Speaker 1: that she is the challenger, that she is not the
Speaker 1: current president nor the former president, even though she's the
Speaker 1: vice president. She's a new face with her own ideas,
Speaker 1: with her own views of the economy, and voters seem
Speaker 1: to be much more willing to say, yeah, Biden did that,
Speaker 1: and I don't like it as much as they are
Speaker 1: willing to say that they're blaming her.
Speaker 2: Wendy the said cut rates this month, citing confidence that
Speaker 2: inflation was under control. How has that news settled with
Speaker 2: these swing state voters?
Speaker 1: That was a really interesting sort of split screen answer.
Speaker 1: As specifically, does the decision to lower rates make you
Speaker 1: feel better about the economy next year? Forty six percent
Speaker 1: said they were more optimistic about the economy, and that
Speaker 1: includes a third of those who are Republicans who feel
Speaker 1: that with lower interest rates they might be able to
Speaker 1: buy a car, pay down their credit card debt, maybe
Speaker 1: even buy a house. They feel better about those sort
Speaker 1: of things. However, when we ask them is the economy
Speaker 1: on the right or wrong track? Sixty seven percent still
Speaker 1: say the economy's on the wrong track. Now, what's funny
Speaker 1: about that one is it goes down the closer you
Speaker 1: get to their home. Forty nine percent say the economy
Speaker 1: is on the wrong track in their own town and
Speaker 1: fifty six percent say it's going on the wrong track
Speaker 1: in their state. But in the country, sixty seven percent
Speaker 1: say it's on the wrong track. So it just you know,
Speaker 1: everything's kind of okay, but you know, the candidates tell
Speaker 1: me it's terrible everywhere else.
Speaker 2: So there are some bright spots for Harris, but there
Speaker 2: are also areas where these likely voters still trust Trump more.
Speaker 2: More on that and what candidates could do in these
Speaker 2: states to shore up their messaging after the break. So, Wendy,
Speaker 2: a lot of this looks pretty positive for Harris. These
Speaker 2: Harris policy proposals appear very popular with swing state voters,
Speaker 2: but Trump is still slightly ahead when it comes to
Speaker 2: who voters say they trust more when it comes to
Speaker 2: the economy. What do you think the candidates will do
Speaker 2: over the next few weeks to solidify or change that impression.
Speaker 1: Well, and I think that's what we look at in
Speaker 1: the poll results, right. We want to figure out from
Speaker 1: that where a smart candidate would spend time and now,
Speaker 1: so if I were Kamala Harris, I would probably spend
Speaker 1: a lot of time on the border, coming up with
Speaker 1: a new immigration policy. And guess what, She's in Arizona
Speaker 1: tomorrow and she's going to go to the border. There
Speaker 1: is one area in which Donald Trump has a clear lead,
Speaker 1: and that is over immigration. He is still tremendously ahead
Speaker 1: of her for voters for whom immigration is their number
Speaker 1: one concern, and voters do trust him more to handle
Speaker 1: the issue of immigration. This is despite the untrue stories
Speaker 1: he's been putting out there about Haitian immigrants eating cats
Speaker 1: and that all illegal immigrants are deadly criminals and things
Speaker 1: like that. That also reflects concern about immigration in the country,
Speaker 1: and that he has attacked her as being weak on immigration,
Speaker 1: and so in that area he is still doing very
Speaker 1: very well. I would if I were her, hammer home
Speaker 1: these very popular ideas, get more specific. Tell us how
Speaker 1: it's going to work, how you're going to pay for it,
Speaker 1: what the government will do with the lost revenue for
Speaker 1: lowering taxes. Now her answer is raised them on rich people.
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, his advisors have been telling him to talk
Speaker 1: about the economy much more, and he tries, but then
Speaker 1: he talks about what made him angry that morning, and
Speaker 1: he keeps sort of wandering off the point, which I
Speaker 1: think voters might be starting to get a little tired of.
Speaker 2: Wendy. Let's take a look at the more granular data
Speaker 2: for a moment that's coming out of each swing state individually.
Speaker 2: What can we learn from seeing which swing states are
Speaker 2: leaning for which candidate and where leads are narrowing.
Speaker 1: With that data, what political analysts will do is figure
Speaker 1: out what we call the path to two seventy. We know,
Speaker 1: for example, that Donald Trump is going to carry Texas
Speaker 1: and Florida. That is a huge electoral college prize. We
Speaker 1: also know we're fairly confident that Kamala Harris will carry
Speaker 1: California and New York two also tremendous electoral college prizes.
Speaker 1: But then there's that whole middle part of the country
Speaker 1: that tends to be Trump country. And then there's the Michigan, Wisconsin,
Speaker 1: and Pennsylvania the blue wall for Democrats. So what the
Speaker 1: individual data tells us is where they might go to
Speaker 1: shore up their support. In these swing states, Trump can
Speaker 1: look pretty much favorably to a state like Arizona, Georgia,
Speaker 1: North Carolina, where people tend to be more conservative. There
Speaker 1: aren't the big as many big cities which tend to
Speaker 1: be Democratic, and there is just more support for Donald
Speaker 1: Trump in those states. So you'll see him spend a
Speaker 1: lot of time there. And I think she's going to
Speaker 1: plant herself in the industrial Midwest and not come home
Speaker 1: until November.
Speaker 2: Well, Wendy there's one more poll coming in October.
Speaker 1: Just want more?
Speaker 2: Can you give us a little preview of what you're
Speaker 2: most excited about to see in those results?
Speaker 1: Well, that poll will be much more than just a
Speaker 1: snapshot in time. At that point, many of these likely
Speaker 1: voters will have voted early, sent in their mail ballot.
Speaker 1: That one is going to more closely reflect the outcome
Speaker 1: we will see two weeks, since there isn't a lot
Speaker 1: of time from October twenty third to November fifth for
Speaker 1: voters to change their minds, and so at that point
Speaker 1: we're going to see a real picture of the race ahead,
Speaker 1: and we'll see how people are feeling about the economy
Speaker 1: at the same time.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for being here.
Speaker 1: Thanks for having me, Sarah.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Big Take DC podcast from
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. This episode was produced by
Speaker 2: Julia Press. It was edited by Aaron Edwards. It was
Speaker 2: mixed by Blake Naples and fact checked by Alex Sugia.
Speaker 2: Naomi Shaven, who also edited this episode, is our senior producer.
Speaker 2: Wendy Benjaminson and Elizabeth Ponso provide editorial direction. Nicole Beemsterbor
Speaker 2: is our executive producer Sage Bound is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.
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