1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,760 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also. 2 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:11,800 Speaker 2: All right, here we go, we're throwing in song spec 3 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 2: I'm sitting. 4 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 1: It's a cash to tip. 5 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 3: We'll see most gambles when they go to gamble, they 6 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:23,919 Speaker 3: go to wind. That's incredible being bank small banks, I 7 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 3: like to make money. 8 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabine if you want 9 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: to pack and we are underway. 10 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Evan Abrams, 11 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 3: and I'm joined by Brandon Anderson for today's best Bets episode. 12 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 3: But before we get into those, we've got a few 13 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 3: trends and talking points from around the league, a little 14 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:48,920 Speaker 3: fun discussion before we get in all into the serious 15 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 3: bets here, Brandon. But number one gotta probably start with 16 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 3: Lamar Lamar Jackson at plus one ten at most books 17 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 3: to be MVP entering week eleven, which I look back 18 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 3: about five years is the shortest price we've seen for 19 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 3: any player at this point. So we'll be interesting to 20 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 3: kind of go into a conversation a little bit about 21 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 3: value in terms of that market. So that was number 22 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:13,360 Speaker 3: one on my list. Number two we could talk about underdogs. 23 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 3: So dogs are coming off of an eleven and three 24 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 3: ats week last week. Faves though on the season are 25 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:22,839 Speaker 3: three games above five hundred, so it's been a back 26 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 3: and forth battle a little bit. The interesting thing on 27 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 3: my point, dogs of six plus points have won sixteen 28 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 3: games outright in the first ten weeks. That's the most 29 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 3: since two thousand and six. So we've seen some big 30 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 3: underdogs come through, and I thought this one was interesting. 31 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 2: Before we get. 32 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 3: Into your first bet here, we have eighty eight one 33 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 3: score games this year through ten weeks. That's the most 34 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 3: ever when I look back, so one score games, a 35 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 3: lot of close ones, some fun action. 36 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 2: What do you think in this week, Brandon. 37 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna go right against all of 38 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: those trends right after past year. I'm gonna take the 39 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 1: biggest favorite of the week I think, maybe the biggest 40 00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: favorite of the season so far. Okay, we have a 41 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 1: detroits minus thirteen home against Jacksonville, so look, I probably 42 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: not to tell you why the Lions are way better. 43 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 1: We know this, right. The Lions offense I think should 44 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 1: have its way. Jaguars defense dead last and passing DV 45 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: Away second to last. Overall, Jaguars offense has creater. There's 46 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 1: no Trevor Lawrence anymore. I don't know if we're gonna 47 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 1: see him again this season. Mac Jones stinks. There's a 48 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 1: reason that he just got cut out, right. He looked 49 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 1: terrible last week. And now look, Jacksonville lost by five 50 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 1: to Minnesota. They lost by five to Philadelphia. But this 51 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: is why we did the Sunday recap, right, You can't 52 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 1: go just by the margin. They only had three hundred 53 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: and fifty eight yards of offense combined in those two games. 54 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 1: This offense is gone. They don't know how to move 55 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:42,679 Speaker 1: the ball. And I know this is actually flying in 56 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 1: the face of luck rankings also, so I'm really going 57 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 1: against the trends here. Detroit has been the lucky team there, 58 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 1: Jacksonville the unlucky team. I don't know, man, the last 59 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: couple of weeks, Jacksonville looks awfully lucky to be in 60 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 1: these games. They should be getting run off the field. 61 00:02:57,680 --> 00:02:59,399 Speaker 1: And so I just think that this kind of rights 62 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:03,799 Speaker 1: itself here Detroit. I thought their defense would fall off 63 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 1: without Aiden Hutchinson. They're still third in DVA overall. They've 64 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 1: actually gotten better since he left. By the numbers, so 65 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 1: the lines have played only twice this season against what 66 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:16,799 Speaker 1: we'll call a quote bad team, just kind of by 67 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 1: the DVOA. Dallas is one of those. That's how the 68 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 1: numbers say it, Dallas forty seven and nine. We've played 69 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: that one. The Titans were the other when that was 70 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:29,079 Speaker 1: fifty two to fourteen. So they pound these bad teams. 71 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 1: Last season, Detroit had six wins by twelve points or more. 72 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 1: Jacksonville's already allowed at least twenty eight points five times. 73 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 1: The Lions have scored at least thirty points four times. 74 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 1: That's where we're headed here. There's a whole bunch of 75 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 1: points for the Lions and not enough for Jacksonville, leaving 76 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 1: to hang in there. We know at Jared Goff and 77 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 1: Dan Campbell, I as good as favorites there. I was 78 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: pretty good at noon, and then the goth indoor stat 79 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: with Detroit now thirty and ten, ATS seventy five percent, 80 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 1: and when he's favored by four or more indoors with 81 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: Detroit twelve and one on ATS covering by almost a 82 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: touchdown a game, double digit favorites this season of four 83 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: to o ATS covering by fourteen in a game. So 84 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:10,839 Speaker 1: I know all the trends. I know that we got 85 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: those like seven to ten point dogs. They've not been 86 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:17,600 Speaker 1: they've been covering. This is too far for me. Jacksonville 87 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 1: season win total under under five and a half. I 88 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 1: think it's my favorite win total on the board. They 89 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,840 Speaker 1: play the Lions here, then a bye week, and then 90 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: the Texans. Those are two losses, so I think even 91 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 1: if you change your mind later, you can get that 92 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 1: now it's a plus one twenty five and you get 93 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 1: short term value here. You can buy out later, maybe 94 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: even get a middle if you like it. So I 95 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 1: will take the Lions minus thirteen. I will probably end 96 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:45,799 Speaker 1: up sprinkling like a twenty plus win or forty plus 97 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 1: team total or something. You can watch the app for that. 98 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:50,720 Speaker 1: But I'm just going chalk here off the bat. Give 99 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 1: me Detroit. 100 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, even if you like that Jacksonville under five and 101 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:56,279 Speaker 3: a half bet, and you don't even have the news 102 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 3: of Lawrence yet. So if Lawrence is actually done for 103 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,239 Speaker 3: the year, which is a possibility, that bet looks even better. 104 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 3: And from Detroit's point of view, we haven't even really 105 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:06,479 Speaker 3: seen them play fantastic football over the last few weeks. 106 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:09,600 Speaker 3: They had those two hundred yard offense games that they 107 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 3: won by a ton of points. They had to come 108 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:14,159 Speaker 3: back against Houston, so we actually are probably due for 109 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 3: like a great Lions game at some point. So all right, 110 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 3: let's go to the Browns and the Saints. The Jamis 111 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 3: revenge game tour. 112 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 2: Here. 113 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 3: The line has kind of moved a little bit. It 114 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 3: was Browns one and a half, it was Saints one 115 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 3: and a half. So what's your bet and what number 116 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 3: are you looking for there? 117 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's floating right around to pick them right now? 118 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take the Browns here. I like Cleveland 119 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 1: a lot better. There is a plus one and a 120 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 1: half Cleveland, So give me the Browns at the plus 121 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 1: one and a half. I would take them plus one. 122 00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 1: If it gets past that, I think it might by kickoff, 123 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 1: I think the Browns may be favored. Then I'd probably 124 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 1: just play a money line. But around that number, I 125 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: just think the Browns are the much better team here. 126 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 1: We've played them a couple times lately. This is a 127 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 1: team that the numbers and the underlying stuff is not 128 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 1: going to show you what they actually are right now. 129 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:06,839 Speaker 1: Jamis Winston at quarterback instead of he who will not 130 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 1: be mentioned. Ken Dorsey calling the plays now, Nick Chubb 131 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 1: and healthier line getting a little healthier, Chubb shaking off 132 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,160 Speaker 1: the rust, and they're coming out of the bye week. 133 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:18,679 Speaker 1: So you got a new quarterback, you got your running 134 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:20,920 Speaker 1: back back, you got the old line back, you got 135 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 1: a new play caller, and now you had two weeks 136 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 1: to like reset, settle in and figure out who you 137 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,679 Speaker 1: actually are. And I think that's a great spot for Cleveland. 138 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 1: The defense still rates out pretty well to me. Again, 139 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,360 Speaker 1: the numbers don't look that good. They're getting a lot 140 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:39,039 Speaker 1: of pass rush. That's bad news for Derek Carr. He 141 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:41,280 Speaker 1: is not good underpass rush, and their old line has 142 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: been terrible. I still think we've said this before. I 143 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 1: think the Browns are similar profile. I think about them 144 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 1: similar right now to like the Steelers, the Chargers, the Vikings, 145 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:55,719 Speaker 1: and the Broncos. Good defense, enough offense to hang in 146 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:59,840 Speaker 1: the right matchup. Those are playoff teams or playoff contenders, 147 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:02,679 Speaker 1: and the Saints are definitely not that the Browns aren't 148 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 1: anymore because the first half of the season happened. But 149 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:07,159 Speaker 1: I think when you think about them week to week 150 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 1: more like that. So Saints last week, we talked about them. 151 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 1: Sunday night, they won the game under the new coach, 152 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 1: they got badly outplayed by the Falcons on that one. 153 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 1: Saints run defense has been especially bad, second worst in 154 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 1: the league. I think the Browns can run the ball here. 155 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 1: I normally don't love Jamis in these toss up spots, 156 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: but he's pretty good as an underdog, which hopefully we're 157 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 1: still getting here. And like you said, revenge spot for Jamis, 158 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 1: though Jamis has a lot of revenge spots if we're 159 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: being fair. Derek Carr as a favorite thirty six percent ats. 160 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 1: We always loved to fade him there, Derek Carr against 161 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 1: teams below five hundred and forty percent ATS, So just 162 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 1: gave me the Browns. I don't normally I don't like 163 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: these toss up sort of games, but I know six 164 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: pack both guys are on this one. I think it's 165 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 1: just a good spot for Browns and a bad number. 166 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, if I knew that Jamis wasn't going to try 167 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 3: to play superhero at some point in this game. Because 168 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 3: of the bench spot, New Orleans last and EPA rush 169 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 3: D thirty first in RUSS success D like Chubbs should 170 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 3: be able to run all over this team. But it's 171 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 3: about the play calling and about what Jamis does with 172 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 3: that information. I think Cleveland's a great bet, but you 173 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 3: just kind of don't know what's going on. All right, 174 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 3: let's go to the next game here and this one 175 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 3: you've already talked about it and you're gonna be on 176 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 3: it again. So Steelers, Ravens, what's the bet and talk 177 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 3: to me? 178 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, give me the Steelers plus three if you need to. 179 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: I still see a one plus three point five out there, 180 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 1: so definitely get the hook if you can. I didn't 181 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 1: really have a lot to add here. I just wanted 182 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,439 Speaker 1: to reiterate that I like this bet, and I still 183 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 1: like it at the plus three if you need to, 184 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,199 Speaker 1: where it's looking at most bucks. So just to reiterate 185 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 1: some of the stuff we talked about Sunday night. This 186 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 1: was our hot red pick. Ravens offense is the elite, 187 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 1: but they have not been elite against Mike Tomlin and 188 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh's defense. Lamar Jackson in his career four touchdowns 189 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 1: passing and rushing combined against the Steelers. He's played six seasons. Now, 190 00:08:56,559 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 1: I know he's missed some of the games, but four touchdowns, 191 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: seven interceptions, seven fumbles and twenty sacks. Pittsburgh has found 192 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:06,440 Speaker 1: the ways to slow him down. And I know this 193 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: is the best version of him and the best version 194 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 1: of that offense. But I think it helps too that 195 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 1: Pittsburgh just played Jayden and Daniels and a team that 196 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 1: they had to scheme against a similar style of quarterback, 197 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 1: and you get two weeks practicing against that in a row, 198 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 1: and look, this is a team that has done well 199 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: against Jacks and they kind of know what to do 200 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 1: here with them. On the flip side, their passing defense 201 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 1: is beatable. Those Russell Wilson moonballs, I think they can 202 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:33,439 Speaker 1: hit a couple here. I don't expect to love watching 203 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 1: this game, even with the bet. Here. I expect with 204 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: this bet, even if we cover, the Ravens are going 205 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 1: to be the team we come on on Sunday Night. 206 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 1: We're like, the Ravens were way better. They're moving the 207 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 1: ball game, they had the ball thirty eight minutes. It's like, well, 208 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 1: we had three big passing plays for Pittsburgh. The defense 209 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 1: made two huge turnover stops. That's just what happens in 210 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 1: these sort of games. This is that old raw raw 211 00:09:56,320 --> 00:10:00,040 Speaker 1: Mike Tomlins spot, Pittsburgh just finds a way here. I 212 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 1: afford as an underdog. Mike Tomlin forty eight twenty and 213 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: one ats seventy one percent for his career. That goes 214 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 1: up to eighty one percent at home we're home here, 215 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 1: goes up to eighty one percent ats against the division opponent, 216 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 1: which we are here. And then the stat that I love, 217 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 1: this is maybe my single favorite betting trend that I 218 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: will just bet blind every time. Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, 219 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:27,680 Speaker 1: you take the underdog twenty three six and three seventy 220 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 1: nine percent for the underdog when it's a three point 221 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 1: line or more, eighteen two and three ninety percent cover 222 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 1: rate for the underdog. John Harbaugh has never covered in 223 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 1: the history of this series against the Steelers as a 224 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 1: three point favorite or better. Maybe this will be the 225 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 1: first one. I do not think these teams are equal. 226 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 1: This is not really a cap on the teams. This 227 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:51,839 Speaker 1: is the number. This is the spot. I'm just gonna 228 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 1: take Tomlin and the Steelers' home dogs every time here. 229 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, just keeps hitting. 230 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 3: And you know when you look about Tomlin four and 231 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 3: zero against the spread against Lamar just in their careers, 232 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 3: Lamar has never covered against him, So something's. 233 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 2: Got to give. 234 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 3: The other angle I was looking at here was Lamar rushing, 235 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 3: which seems to be a little bit of a decline lately. 236 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 3: I was looking at under forty four and a half, 237 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 3: even under eight and a half rush attempts. They just 238 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:16,199 Speaker 3: play him so well, so maybe there's a more of 239 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 3: a passing attack on Baltimore's point there. 240 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 2: All right, So those are your best bets. 241 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:23,800 Speaker 3: Now we're gonna get into some teasers, some props, a 242 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 3: few of their angles here, but we're gonna start with 243 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:28,439 Speaker 3: a two team teaser. You like lots of big spreads, 244 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 3: lots of teaser spots on the board here, but what 245 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:30,839 Speaker 3: are you going with? 246 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take two teams at about a touchdown favorite. 247 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 1: Gave me the Dolphins minus seven home against the Raiders, 248 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 1: and then we'll go to Monday night. Give me the 249 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: Texans on the road minus seven in Dallas. So there 250 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 1: is one major book out there has a minus seven 251 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:46,959 Speaker 1: on balls. You can tease those down between minus one. 252 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:50,320 Speaker 1: You're getting close to a moneyline parlay here, but that's 253 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 1: minus one forty. We get minus one twenty hopefully on 254 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 1: the teaser, depending on your book price. We haven't done 255 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 1: a lot of teasers here, so what's the point of 256 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 1: a teaser? We know, but in case you haven't played 257 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 1: a lot of teasers, we like the number here at seven, 258 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:05,319 Speaker 1: seven and a half teasing down because you cross off 259 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 1: key numbers. So we're getting below the seven, below six 260 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,720 Speaker 1: and four a little bit less so below the three. Also, 261 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 1: we're getting past all those spots. And I'll tell you 262 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: why I think that matters in a second. I don't 263 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,679 Speaker 1: think I need to convince you why we like Dolphins 264 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:21,960 Speaker 1: over Raiders, why we like Texans over Cowboys. But Dolphins 265 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:25,199 Speaker 1: Raiders two ships passing the night. The Dolphins are kind 266 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 1: of figuring things out. The Raiders are off a bye week. 267 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:29,959 Speaker 1: I kind of forgot they existed, to be totally honest, Like, 268 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 1: I don't even they don't exist as an NFL entity 269 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: right now. They can't pass, they can't hurt this run defense. 270 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 1: Their run defense. I think we will get gashed by Miami. 271 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:40,559 Speaker 1: McDaniel and two have been pretty good against sub five 272 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: hundred teams, so I don't think they're what they're supposed 273 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 1: to be. They can beat the Raiders at home. Texans 274 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:49,199 Speaker 1: Monday night. Not a team I've loved this year. We've 275 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 1: faded the Texans a lot. The Cowboys stink the Cowboys 276 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,440 Speaker 1: season long, our bottom seven offense and defense. And that's 277 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 1: with Dak Prescott and all the good stuff. Whatever they've 278 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 1: done one well, Dallas had one hundred and forty six 279 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: yards last week. Cooper Rush bad, my guy, Trey Lance bad. 280 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 1: There's nothing coming here for Dallas. And the one unit 281 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 1: I trust here is the Texans defense. So I think 282 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:17,440 Speaker 1: it's a great spot for Houston to in Miami to 283 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: just get the win. Now, why am I not just 284 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 1: playing the spreads Raiders off the bye week, Miami off 285 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 1: a short week Monday night football. Don't love the spot there. 286 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:28,959 Speaker 1: I trust Mammy to get the job done. But that's 287 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:32,679 Speaker 1: why I'm teasing it down. Texans Stroud, Demiko have been 288 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 1: great against sub five hundred teams, and this is a rivalry. 289 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 1: It's the Texas rivalry. Last three meetings have been four points, 290 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 1: three point three points. So again, tease it down, skip 291 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 1: the key numbers. I'm just taking two teams I think 292 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 1: need wins here, need to keep things moving against the 293 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:51,719 Speaker 1: Raiders and Cowboys that quite frankly might be as bad 294 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 1: as anyone in the NFL right now. So Dolphins Texans 295 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 1: tease them both down to minus one. Just win baby. 296 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, if you like the teams as well, and good. 297 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 3: I think it's the numbers and the seven and a half, 298 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 3: the fact that they're favorite in the six point teaser 299 00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:07,200 Speaker 3: that takes it below all those key numbers in between, 300 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:09,840 Speaker 3: that makes it the interesting play and the reason why 301 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 3: you would take it individually, so completely make sense. All right, Now, 302 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 3: we're going to run off some props here, so get 303 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 3: your notepads out. We're going to start with Colts Jets, 304 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 3: and you want to talk Jonathan Taylor. Which way you going? 305 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 2: Yeah? 306 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 1: I like Jonathan Taylor over is. I tend to be 307 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 1: an overs better. I know props. We like our unders 308 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 1: here at Action Network, but I have more fun betting 309 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 1: over is. I like the over here on Jonathan Taylor. 310 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 1: So here's where this started. And I like to kind 311 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 1: of tell you about the process. If I'm playing a prop, 312 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 1: it's usually because I kind of like an angle or aside, 313 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:40,400 Speaker 1: but I have a better way to play it. So 314 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: that's kind of where I'm at here. The Jets are 315 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 1: four point favorites somehow still in the Year of Our 316 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: Lord twenty twenty four. In November, the Jets are still 317 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: favored by four against actual teams The Colts are like 318 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 1: a possible playoff team. They're still in the mix of 319 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 1: this thing here. The Jets are terrible. They've done anything 320 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: good the entire season. All My Jets' future is rip terrible. 321 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 1: So I don't like the matchup here for the Jets. 322 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 1: These are two just gonna blow teams. But do I 323 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 1: really want to back the Colts on the road. Do 324 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 1: we want to trust Anthony Richardson who's back in for Flacco? 325 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 1: I don't know. So why do I like the Colts? 326 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 1: If I like the matchup, it's got to be more 327 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 1: than just the Jets. State that's not a cap. Okay, Well, 328 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 1: here's the cap. We've talked about the Jets being terrible 329 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 1: running the football and stopping the run. They can't tackle 330 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: this season. We saw it right away week one, Monday Night. 331 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 1: We've seen it consistently since then. Their run defense is bad. 332 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 1: The one thing I trust about Indianapolis is running the ball. 333 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 1: They're a top ten offense. So that's why I switched 334 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: from a Colts plus four to just let's play Jonathan Taylor. 335 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 1: So here are the numbers. Jets top ten most rushing 336 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: yards allowed to running backs twenty plus carries, to running 337 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 1: back for the last five. They've only even faced twice 338 00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 1: this season a top twelve rushing team. Jordan Mason, the 339 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: backup running back, drops twenty eight yards or twenty eight 340 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 1: carries one hundred and forty seven yards. Ray Davis Buffalo, 341 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: the backup running back twenty carries for ninety seven yards. 342 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 1: So even though they're facing the backup running backs with 343 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 1: these good teams, they're getting gashed on their run. We 344 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 1: watch these games. This fricking team is on TV every 345 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 1: single time, so we have to watch the Jets. They 346 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 1: can't stop this. So I kind of like twenty ish 347 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 1: rushing attempts. There's no rushing attempt lines out there yet 348 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 1: Adam on the touchdown, they're get him a lot of touchdowns. 349 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 1: If Taylor gets twenty rushes, he's averaging about five yards 350 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 1: a pop. I like one hundred yards. So with Richardson, 351 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 1: he's averaging ten yards higher per game. I love a 352 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 1: running back. With the rushing quarterback, there's like one less 353 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: set of eyes to stop the running back. He's averaged 354 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 1: or with richards And, he's at eighty eight yards and more. 355 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 1: Four to the five starts, despite two games against Houston 356 00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: that are really good defense. A game against Pittsburgh Chicago 357 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 1: ring pretty tough defenses, so I think even with tougher schedule, 358 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,879 Speaker 1: he's been much better with Richardson. So I guess I 359 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:09,639 Speaker 1: haven't actually said the bet here. I'm taking the rushing 360 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: yards over, but the lines that like eighty five and 361 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 1: a half eighty six and a half books have sort 362 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 1: of sniffed this out. They're like, Okay, we think he's 363 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 1: gonna have a lot of rushing yards too, So I'm 364 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 1: gonna pivot. Give me just one hundred yards. It's plus 365 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:24,199 Speaker 1: two to ten. We're getting about double the payout for 366 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 1: what effectively is one good extra run from Taylor. So 367 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 1: I know that number I said is kind of just 368 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 1: barely over the eighty five eighty six. I'd rather go 369 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,639 Speaker 1: for the double payout. I also had an article up 370 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,919 Speaker 1: this week on season stat leaders. Jonathan Taylor is one 371 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 1: hundred to one right now to leave the league in 372 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 1: rushing Now, he's a ways back. You missed a couple 373 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 1: of games. You have to fade Derrick Henry and Saquon 374 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:50,440 Speaker 1: Barkley to win this bet. I don't mind fading old 375 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:54,320 Speaker 1: running backs that get injured sometimes. Sakuon's got an injury history. 376 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:56,880 Speaker 1: Derrick Henry has no injury history. He's like a machine 377 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,399 Speaker 1: sent from the heavens to just dominate on the ground. 378 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:01,880 Speaker 1: But at some point the man with like a billion 379 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 1: carries might run out. So one hundred to one with 380 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,159 Speaker 1: Richardson back in the lineup, now, I think this is 381 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,880 Speaker 1: a good kickstart spot. Here. Give me one hundred yard 382 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:12,119 Speaker 1: rushing game plus two ten Jonathan Taylor. 383 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:14,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, and you mentioned the Jets have been bad against 384 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 3: the run all year. It's been even worse since solid 385 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:19,879 Speaker 3: left so win. Since week six, they're last in rush 386 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 3: EPA per play, twenty fifth in success right, twenty ninth 387 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 3: in pass EPA, and thirtieth in rush EPA. It's been 388 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 3: and the six month points allowed since week six as well, 389 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,199 Speaker 3: and they've only forced one turnover so their defense has 390 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 3: been an absolute mess since letting Bob go. So with 391 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:37,159 Speaker 3: you there, you got one more prop here before we 392 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 3: get into the big game. You're talking Josh Jacobs. Which 393 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:40,440 Speaker 3: direction you going? 394 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, as usual, I'm going with an over here, just 395 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 1: keep it simple. Over on the rushing yard sixty eight 396 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:48,640 Speaker 1: and a half over for Josh Jacobs against the Bears. 397 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:52,160 Speaker 1: So the Bears are in free fall. Obviously they can't 398 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 1: figure out left for right. They fired the OC. Matt 399 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,840 Speaker 1: abrafluis like, you're out of moves, my friend. This is 400 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 1: it for you. It's a weird spot. Here's a lot 401 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 1: of points in a home division rivalry game. So that's 402 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:05,679 Speaker 1: where I was like, Man, do I have to like 403 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 1: hold my nose and take Chicago here? Here's the problem? 404 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 1: Not really a rivalry, right. The Packers have won ten 405 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:14,919 Speaker 1: games in a row against the Bears. They've won twenty 406 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 1: five out of twenty eight against the Bears. Now, I 407 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:20,440 Speaker 1: know most of that is Aaron Rodgers, but I can't 408 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 1: pick a side here. So what do I like about 409 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 1: the Packers matchup? Jordan Love healthy out of the bye, 410 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,439 Speaker 1: a week off of the injury report, got the growing healthy. 411 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:32,720 Speaker 1: I like that, But Bears defense almost top five against 412 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 1: the pass, bottom three against the run. The Packers have 413 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 1: run the ball well, We've seen a couple of games 414 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,240 Speaker 1: this year when Love's not been fully healthy. They just 415 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 1: run the ball, whether he's handing it off or whether 416 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 1: it's Malik Willis out there doing the job. Packers are 417 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:50,640 Speaker 1: top three by rushing DV Away and Windy City looks 418 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 1: pretty windy this weekend, so that helps the run game 419 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 1: as well. So Bears nine games this season have allowed 420 00:19:57,560 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 1: sixty five yards or more to the top running back 421 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,680 Speaker 1: and the opposing team seven out of those nine games. 422 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 1: The only two they didn't was Houston and Jacksonville, who 423 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:07,800 Speaker 1: aren't very good a running the ball and who's running 424 00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:10,400 Speaker 1: back one got hurt those games anyway, So I think 425 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:12,639 Speaker 1: sixty five sixty eight and a half here, that's right 426 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:15,240 Speaker 1: in a range. Over half of those running backs got 427 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 1: to eighty two yards. I looked at the rushing attempts 428 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,880 Speaker 1: here again, I wanted sixteen. The number came out sixteen 429 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,639 Speaker 1: and a half, So I think that's about where I 430 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:28,119 Speaker 1: like it. But that's the number I wanted. No escalators 431 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,720 Speaker 1: here for me. We don't have to escalate everything. Let's 432 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,919 Speaker 1: just keep it simple. Josh Jacobs, over the sixty eight 433 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 1: and a half, Let's get sixty nine yards. That would 434 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 1: be nice. 435 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:38,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, if Green Bay is going to cover this game, 436 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 3: it's going to be on the ground, especially if that's 437 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 3: the game plan Laflour is going with. I mean, Chicago's 438 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 3: allowed fifth most yards per carry this year. It's no 439 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 3: secret to them, so especially trying to cover on the road, 440 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 3: it makes sense to give Jacobs the ball a ton 441 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 3: to make it easier on love. Okay, the game of 442 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 3: the weekend case Buffalo. Even with a weekend full of 443 00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 3: great games, this is easily the best game we see now. 444 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,679 Speaker 3: The fourth undefeated underdog at nine and zero or better 445 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 3: in the Super Bowl era, the first since the Chiefs 446 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,399 Speaker 3: in twenty thirteen. I know you got a lot of 447 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 3: bets here at a lot of different angles, So go 448 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 3: one by one and let people take some notes. 449 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, so I've got two kind of prop angles here 450 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 1: for players. I've got an in game prop and then 451 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:23,120 Speaker 1: I'm kind of building towards a parlay here. So we're 452 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 1: gonna play each thing along the way, and then we'll 453 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:27,520 Speaker 1: get to the parlay at the end. A few notes 454 00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:29,159 Speaker 1: off the top here on the matchup, you kind of 455 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,359 Speaker 1: gave some good trends here, So like this is the game, right, 456 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: this is the one that we wait all season for. 457 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 1: We see it year after year. Mahomes is four and 458 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,760 Speaker 1: three against Josh Allen three and oh in the playoffs, 459 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:41,879 Speaker 1: but that means Josh Allen's three and one in the 460 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:45,199 Speaker 1: regular season. Good luck finding an edge. Like all the 461 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 1: matchup stuff I try to bring you. There are no edges. 462 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,880 Speaker 1: Every team is good at everything here. They're all they're 463 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 1: both top eleven rushing and passing, offense and defense. Good 464 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,640 Speaker 1: luck finding the right trend. You got the Mahomes three 465 00:21:57,640 --> 00:21:59,920 Speaker 1: point favorite or worse trend, but you got Josh Allen 466 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 1: anything less than a few goal favorite trend. Those cancel out. 467 00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 1: You got the fade unbeaten teams in November trend, but 468 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 1: not if they're underdogs, not if they just won in 469 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 1: a close game. So those trends go out for me. 470 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 1: The Chiefs this great second half team. The Bills are 471 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 1: just as good as the second half. They're the two 472 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,919 Speaker 1: best second half teams ATS fifteen and four combined. I 473 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,640 Speaker 1: got no trends. I got no matchups. I don't want 474 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: a side here, to be honest, I kind of want 475 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 1: to just enjoy the game. We get these epic matchups 476 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 1: that are close down to the end. If I had 477 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,159 Speaker 1: to do a side, just give you a bit of 478 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,639 Speaker 1: a lean of where I'm thinking. I think the price 479 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,480 Speaker 1: is about right. I think i'd slightly lean toward it 480 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,720 Speaker 1: Bills when I think they need it a little bit more. 481 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,439 Speaker 1: I don't need the side, so let me get to 482 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,520 Speaker 1: the first particular matchup I'm watching here, and this really 483 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: is why I would slightly lean bills. You want quarterback 484 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 1: runners in this matchup. Josh Allen in the seven Kansas 485 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:55,240 Speaker 1: City games averaging over ten carries a game for fifty 486 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,440 Speaker 1: six yards a game rushing, he said, at least seven 487 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 1: carries at least thirty two rushing yards all seven games. 488 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,879 Speaker 1: Packer Mahomes in this matchup and in big games in 489 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 1: his career, we all watched it. He takes off, he 490 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 1: gets those long scrambles in this matchup. He's at a 491 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 1: sixty or thirty six yard game, sixty one in a 492 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,919 Speaker 1: sixty nine yard game. Here's where I see maybe a 493 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 1: buffalo advantage. Bad ankle for Mahomes. Both the last two 494 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,480 Speaker 1: games we see him not quite looking as mobile. So 495 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:26,440 Speaker 1: I don't want Mahomes overs here. I'm not playing Mahomes. 496 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 1: I do want Alan overs. So I'm gonna played a 497 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,360 Speaker 1: couple of ways. Josh Allen over six and a half 498 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 1: rushing attempts. I don't do a lot of rushing attempts. 499 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:40,119 Speaker 1: He's gone over that all seven Chiefs games. And I 500 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,920 Speaker 1: mentioned the lean toward buffalo. We get a couple of 501 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,320 Speaker 1: kneel downs at the end. That's a nice way to 502 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:47,200 Speaker 1: get a couple of rushing attempts in there as well. 503 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:49,159 Speaker 1: If we need him. I don't think that we will. 504 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 1: He can look at the alternates here. I see a 505 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 1: plus three seventy five for ten rushing attempts. He's hit 506 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,200 Speaker 1: that five in a row against the Chiefs. I'll probably 507 00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,919 Speaker 1: sprinkle that a little bit, and then rushing yards as well. 508 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:00,119 Speaker 2: Well. 509 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,639 Speaker 1: I'm gonna play both of them over thirty and a 510 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 1: half rushing yards. Again, he's gone over that number all 511 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 1: seven Chiefs matchups in his career, fifty plus two thirty five. 512 00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,080 Speaker 1: Has done that over half of the Chiefs games. So 513 00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 1: again we're billing towards the parlay. The main plays here 514 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:20,280 Speaker 1: are Alan over six and a half rushing attempts and 515 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:22,640 Speaker 1: over thirty and a half rushing yards. I'll play those 516 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,720 Speaker 1: both separately. No alt's in the parlays. Check the app 517 00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 1: I'm gonna have like ten different bets on this game, 518 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,119 Speaker 1: and different all and all sorts of stuff. But starting there, 519 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 1: just give me the Josh Allen rushing attempts. Give me 520 00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:36,320 Speaker 1: the Josh Allen rushing yards. 521 00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:37,160 Speaker 2: Yeah. 522 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 3: If you notice in looking back at tape at like 523 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,959 Speaker 3: the games that they've played, Josh Allen goes the extra 524 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,879 Speaker 3: mile in these contests that maybe he doesn't go in 525 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 3: other games. There's one replay they keep playing of him 526 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,199 Speaker 3: throwing it down the field like while running out of 527 00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 3: bounds on one of his career is just he ends 528 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 3: up doing extra when he knows they need it, and 529 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:56,960 Speaker 3: this is when they need it. 530 00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 2: So it makes sense. 531 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 1: What else you got, Yeah, that's that's an angle that 532 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 1: on this podcast. For years we've done the Josh Allen 533 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,520 Speaker 1: rushing in big games, So that's one that we know. 534 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 1: And I will say his averages are a little low 535 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,120 Speaker 1: this year. His rushing attempts and yards per game are 536 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:14,159 Speaker 1: the lowest of his career slightly, and the best Chiefs 537 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,440 Speaker 1: games have come in the playoffs. Again, makes sense, he's 538 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 1: saving it for the biggest moments. This is not quite 539 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,440 Speaker 1: there yet. So that's why no alts in the parlay. 540 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,880 Speaker 1: Just those basic numbers. I think the lines are too low, 541 00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 1: all right. So that's old faithful number one, Old faithful 542 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:31,480 Speaker 1: number two. Travis Kelce is back, Baby, Travis Kelce is 543 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 1: catching everything. Last three weeks of football, eight catches, fourteen catches, 544 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 1: ten catches. He is the receptions monster again that he 545 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 1: once was. And if you look at over the season 546 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:47,120 Speaker 1: Rashe Rice first three games of the season average eight 547 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,760 Speaker 1: catches a game on nine targets. Three games of that 548 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,520 Speaker 1: we talked about they kind of built the offense out 549 00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,880 Speaker 1: of Rashi Rice. Then he went out for the season. 550 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 1: So what did the Chiefs do? It took the bubble 551 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,200 Speaker 1: wrap off Taylor Swift. Keep your way for a couple 552 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 1: of months, Travis, we gotta use them. Now, get some 553 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 1: catches in. He's averaged since Week three almost eleven targets 554 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:11,399 Speaker 1: a game, eight point seven catches a game. So this 555 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 1: is another one of those season leaders. I bet plus 556 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:17,320 Speaker 1: seven hundred for receptions leader for Kelsey. He's right in 557 00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:20,399 Speaker 1: the mix of things. He's getting a ton of catches lately. 558 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 1: So against the Bills in those seven games, at least 559 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 1: five catches every game at least sixty five yards. All 560 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:31,040 Speaker 1: but one of the games average is seven point three 561 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,800 Speaker 1: catches eighty six yards. It's not really overwhelming numbers. That's 562 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:39,119 Speaker 1: just Travis kelce basically. But the lines for Travis kelcey 563 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 1: here six and a half catches, sixty five and a 564 00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 1: half yards, So I'm gonna play the over sixty five 565 00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 1: and a half yards on Travis Kelcey. I think that 566 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,560 Speaker 1: he probably gets to that eight catches line. I don't 567 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:53,800 Speaker 1: need the receptions here. If he gets eight catches, he's 568 00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 1: gonna get over on the yards anyway. So give me 569 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 1: the over sixty five and a half yards that's going 570 00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:02,000 Speaker 1: into the parlay. And again I like my alts here. 571 00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:04,360 Speaker 1: So here's a couple alts to keep in mind. Ten 572 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,960 Speaker 1: plus catches, which again he's done two of the last 573 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,080 Speaker 1: three games here plus four to seventy five, and then 574 00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:12,359 Speaker 1: one hundred yards is plus three seventy five. One hundred 575 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 1: and twenty five yards is ten to one. Again little 576 00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,960 Speaker 1: nibbles if you really like the Kelsey angle. But for 577 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:21,560 Speaker 1: the main bet here over on the traditional receiving yard 578 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 1: sixty five and a half for Travis Kelcey. 579 00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 3: I just looked it up while you were talking. So 580 00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 3: in the three losses to Buffalo, he's averaging eighty three 581 00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,440 Speaker 3: receiving yards a game, which would say to the point 582 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:35,320 Speaker 3: that if you like Buffalo and you're kind of leaning 583 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:37,080 Speaker 3: that way and you think maybe it's more important to 584 00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,320 Speaker 3: them than it is Kansas City Kenas City's on a 585 00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:42,280 Speaker 3: trailing game script could make sense to go over there. 586 00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:43,680 Speaker 2: I like it. Do you have anything else in that 587 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:44,359 Speaker 2: Buffalo game? 588 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,640 Speaker 1: Yeah? One more is just kind of in general, I 589 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,480 Speaker 1: think that this is just close all the way right 590 00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,200 Speaker 1: like that. This is how we've seen these teams play, 591 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:55,119 Speaker 1: So we have a way we can play that. I've 592 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:56,680 Speaker 1: got a couple of ways, because of course I do. 593 00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:00,320 Speaker 1: This is what we're doing here. So both teams have 594 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 1: scored in the fourth quarter of this matchup every single 595 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,680 Speaker 1: game until I bet it in the playoffs last year, 596 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 1: and then it didn't hit. We finally got one team 597 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,159 Speaker 1: not scoring in the fourth quarter, but six of the 598 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,119 Speaker 1: sound matchups both teams have scoring the fourth quarter. Now, 599 00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 1: some books you can play that this is like a 600 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 1: soccer bet. It's called BTTs. Both teams to score. Both 601 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 1: teams are score in the fourth quarter. I see as 602 00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,680 Speaker 1: a minus one ninety five. Now I'm not a juice better, 603 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:26,359 Speaker 1: so I don't love the minus one ninety five on 604 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 1: its own, but into a parlay, that can be a 605 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:30,679 Speaker 1: good way to kind of add a little bit to 606 00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:32,719 Speaker 1: the line there if you like it. And then I 607 00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,200 Speaker 1: just think this is a game that is going to 608 00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 1: be close down to the end. I think this is 609 00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,800 Speaker 1: a game with the way these teams play kind of 610 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:41,880 Speaker 1: grinding it out a little bit more this year running 611 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,520 Speaker 1: the ball, and the way that this just comes down 612 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,240 Speaker 1: how often is just who's got the ball last. That's 613 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:50,040 Speaker 1: what we know how this matchup goes. So I'm gonna 614 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 1: bet either team to win by seven or last. Here's 615 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,400 Speaker 1: that bet. You to just make it yourself with the 616 00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,720 Speaker 1: same game parlay Chiefs plus seven and a half, Bills 617 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:01,960 Speaker 1: plus seven and a half. Every book will let you 618 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 1: do this. You just go add in the alternate spreads, 619 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,520 Speaker 1: put them both in there. Just that alone. It's minus 620 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:09,960 Speaker 1: one twenty five. So I'm gonna play that. That's this 621 00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:13,600 Speaker 1: is a close game. Bet minus one twenty five. If 622 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:15,360 Speaker 1: you want to add in the fourth quarter thing where 623 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 1: they both score, then you need a plus one forty 624 00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 1: six out of that instead. So that's the close game 625 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,239 Speaker 1: bet here. If you like it, do not put this 626 00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,400 Speaker 1: part into the parlay, but if you like both teams 627 00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 1: to score every quarter that has nearly hit in every 628 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,520 Speaker 1: one of these matchups, it did hit in one of them. 629 00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:37,400 Speaker 1: In five of the seven matchups, one team didn't score 630 00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 1: in a one quarter, So probably that's where we're headed 631 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:42,640 Speaker 1: for a little bit of a heartbreak. But that is 632 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,280 Speaker 1: eleven to one at a book out there. And if 633 00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,960 Speaker 1: you just think we're gonna get two awesome quarterbacks moving 634 00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:52,960 Speaker 1: the ball, scoring narrow a defensive stop, that's a fun 635 00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 1: way to go too. So the main bet here is 636 00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,640 Speaker 1: the game close either way plus seven and a half 637 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:05,000 Speaker 1: both ways. So here's the parlay. Josh Allen nine rushing 638 00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,480 Speaker 1: attempts are more over the thirty and a half rushes 639 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,920 Speaker 1: rushing yards, Travis Kelcey over on the sixty five and 640 00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,240 Speaker 1: a half receiving yards plus seven and a half both ways, 641 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:18,080 Speaker 1: So close game Kelsey over Allen over ten to one 642 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 1: odds on that parlay. And just in case it's not 643 00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,959 Speaker 1: a close game, take that part out. Here's a second 644 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:29,080 Speaker 1: parlay for you with just Kelsey and Allen. Allen nine 645 00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:33,000 Speaker 1: rushes fifty plus yards, so a little more aggressive Kelsey 646 00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:36,560 Speaker 1: ten plus catches eighty plus yards is eighteen to one. 647 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,400 Speaker 1: So those are the two parlays. It'll all be in 648 00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,240 Speaker 1: the app. It's a lot of numbers. I don't want 649 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:44,240 Speaker 1: to side on this game, but I want action on 650 00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:46,720 Speaker 1: this game. This is such a huge fun game. I 651 00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,200 Speaker 1: want to have stuff to root for. We're rooting for 652 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,640 Speaker 1: Josh Allen to run the ball, Travis Kelcey to catch 653 00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:53,800 Speaker 1: the ball, and just hopefully a fun close game all 654 00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:54,320 Speaker 1: the way. 655 00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:56,760 Speaker 3: I was gonna say, other than having to rewind a 656 00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 3: few times and listen to that. It will all be 657 00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 3: in the app. It'll be under endings account. We have 658 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 3: a new Parlay Express account that'll probably be on as well, 659 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,800 Speaker 3: so everyone could check out the action all over the 660 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,200 Speaker 3: board here. All right, So we're gonna go into one 661 00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:11,800 Speaker 3: or two roundtable topics. I know we've been on here 662 00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:13,120 Speaker 3: a little bit, but I want to get to a 663 00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,680 Speaker 3: few of these. So, Brandon, you've got some stat leaders. 664 00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:17,920 Speaker 3: You have an article up on actionetwork dot com right 665 00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 3: now entering week eleven, kind of discussing the markets for 666 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,360 Speaker 3: each of these categories and where you see some, you know, 667 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,720 Speaker 3: take the chalk look for a long shot. So give 668 00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:27,800 Speaker 3: me a few you're looking at, and then everyone go 669 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,360 Speaker 3: check out the article to read the rest. 670 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, so we've got eight of these out there, one article, 671 00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,080 Speaker 1: eight different stat leaders. I already mentioned two of them prior. 672 00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:38,000 Speaker 1: Two of my favorites, Travis Kelcey Receptions seven to one. 673 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,760 Speaker 1: That's my favorite. Jonathan Taylor hundred to one on the 674 00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,800 Speaker 1: rushing yards probably my favorite long shot there. I really 675 00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:47,480 Speaker 1: like Jalen Hurts rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately we're taping this Thursday 676 00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,240 Speaker 1: and he will play tonight before this drops, so keep 677 00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:51,760 Speaker 1: an eye on that one. Kind of see where the 678 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,280 Speaker 1: number lands for you. My other couple just quick favorites 679 00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:58,560 Speaker 1: to mention here. Mike Evans receiving touchdowns. We played that 680 00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 1: one last year at sixty to one. Hit it right now. 681 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 1: There's Jamar Chase at eleven, and then a bunch of 682 00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 1: dudes at like five six seven. There's a big gap 683 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:08,800 Speaker 1: in between any one of these bets. We're kind of 684 00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,760 Speaker 1: betting on the favorite falling off Chase gets hurt, whatever 685 00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,960 Speaker 1: the reason is. Mike Evans is eighteen to one. He's 686 00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:16,680 Speaker 1: not even playing this week, so you might be able 687 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:18,800 Speaker 1: to wait and get a slightly better price after this. 688 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,000 Speaker 1: Hopefully back from the hamstring injury, he's right in. That 689 00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:24,760 Speaker 1: makes even after missing effectively a month of games. No 690 00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:27,160 Speaker 1: Chris Godwin, He's gonna get a lot of looks and 691 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,840 Speaker 1: then for Monday Night, I can't quit him. Micah Parsons 692 00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 1: one hundred to one, sorry, two hundred to one to 693 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:35,920 Speaker 1: lead the league in sacks. He is three right now, 694 00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:38,440 Speaker 1: but he can rack up multi sacks in a game. 695 00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:40,520 Speaker 1: He's got a really nice schedule I kind of laid 696 00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,200 Speaker 1: out in the article, So have a little fun. Hopefully 697 00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:45,160 Speaker 1: hit like one or two of those in that you 698 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,400 Speaker 1: can check out the article for all the rest effects. 699 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:49,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, one of them could pay for the rest. I 700 00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:49,880 Speaker 2: will say this. 701 00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:52,240 Speaker 3: Jamar Chase on a buy next week, so there is 702 00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:54,880 Speaker 3: a chance that you know the UH people and you know, 703 00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:57,200 Speaker 3: start catching up to him a little bit. So something 704 00:32:57,240 --> 00:32:59,720 Speaker 3: to look at when betting those. All right, we're gonna 705 00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:02,440 Speaker 3: hit one more here? Do you have a favorite make 706 00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,720 Speaker 3: or miss playoffs bet? Right now entering week eleven with 707 00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:07,160 Speaker 3: so much chaos to come. 708 00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:09,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, So I think to me that the spot here 709 00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:11,800 Speaker 1: to watch is a game that I'm not really playing 710 00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:14,560 Speaker 1: the game itself. But maybe you play futures and it's 711 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,680 Speaker 1: that Falcons Broncos game where it's like, what do you 712 00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:20,320 Speaker 1: make of these teams? Right? Are the Falcons any good? 713 00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 1: Are the Broncos actually gives that defense good? I don't 714 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,720 Speaker 1: really know, to be honest, I think again, six pack, 715 00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:29,440 Speaker 1: I believe is on the Broncos. That's the direction I 716 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,600 Speaker 1: lean here. I just don't trust Atlanta yet, especially on 717 00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:34,920 Speaker 1: the road, especially against Denver's pretty good pass rush. So 718 00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:39,000 Speaker 1: if that's the direction you lean, I think there's value 719 00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:41,800 Speaker 1: already on two spots here both sides of that game. 720 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,280 Speaker 1: Broncos to make the playoffs is plus two hundred. They're 721 00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:47,800 Speaker 1: right in. That makes the AFC is so soft right now, 722 00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:49,920 Speaker 1: like there are a spot or two just waiting to 723 00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:54,040 Speaker 1: be grabbed. And then on the other side, not Atlanta. 724 00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,040 Speaker 1: But if it's not Atlanta Tampa, I think maybe it's 725 00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,280 Speaker 1: still in the mix here. Three to one to make 726 00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 1: the playoffs, I'd rather skip that and go for the division. 727 00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:04,479 Speaker 1: I think if they make the playoffs, they probably had 728 00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:06,440 Speaker 1: to do it because they took the spot, not because 729 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:08,760 Speaker 1: they grabbed a wild card. The NFC is not lacking 730 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,840 Speaker 1: for wild cards, So seven to one on the division 731 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:14,880 Speaker 1: kind of a good way either or both of those sides. 732 00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:18,880 Speaker 1: If you like Denver here to play that direction, and 733 00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:20,960 Speaker 1: if you're wrong about Denver here, there's still ways we 734 00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,799 Speaker 1: can come background and hit that later on. Denver can 735 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,759 Speaker 1: still come back round and or Tampa, so those would 736 00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:28,480 Speaker 1: be mine. Do you have any make or miss playoffs 737 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:29,160 Speaker 1: that you're looking at. 738 00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,319 Speaker 3: It was funny because we did a question similar to 739 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,280 Speaker 3: this like a week ago, and we were very anti 740 00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,319 Speaker 3: Denver the rest of the year. But I think this 741 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:42,440 Speaker 3: game specifically could change the outlook a little bit going forward, 742 00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:45,640 Speaker 3: considering that the AFC is so weak and somebody has 743 00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:47,239 Speaker 3: to make the playoffs for the reason we're still talking 744 00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,480 Speaker 3: about the Jets and still talking about the Bengals and 745 00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,560 Speaker 3: all these other teams. So I definitely like that angle. 746 00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,200 Speaker 3: I think my favorite here would be Tampa, just because 747 00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:57,080 Speaker 3: they've stayed so close. Hopefully they get Evans back at 748 00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:59,879 Speaker 3: some point. Godwin obviously done, but at seven to one 749 00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 3: for the division, when you have to assume Atlanta comes 750 00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:05,040 Speaker 3: down down to especially if you're Atlanta from the preseason, 751 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,080 Speaker 3: which I know a bunch of us have played, it's 752 00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:10,160 Speaker 3: probably the headge to make now because Carolina and New Orleans, 753 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,080 Speaker 3: I think you're in their own category in Tampa would 754 00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:14,960 Speaker 3: be the only other shot, So I do like that 755 00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:17,200 Speaker 3: one as well. All right, Brandon, I think you have 756 00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:19,080 Speaker 3: a look ahead before we get out of here for 757 00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:19,879 Speaker 3: next week games. 758 00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:20,640 Speaker 2: What do you got for us? 759 00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:22,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of have a look ahead and a 760 00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:24,120 Speaker 1: half here, so give you the full one and a 761 00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:26,520 Speaker 1: half one. I'm going all the way to Monday night 762 00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:29,279 Speaker 1: on Week twelve. Give me the Ravens minus three at 763 00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:31,839 Speaker 1: the Chargers. It's a minus one oh five right now, 764 00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:33,560 Speaker 1: so we're getting out the key number. I wish we'd 765 00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:35,520 Speaker 1: get below it, but I just think it's a really 766 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,880 Speaker 1: good Ravens spot. We already are betting against the Chargers 767 00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,319 Speaker 1: this week. That was a hot repick for me on 768 00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:44,840 Speaker 1: the Bengals against the Chargers Sunday night. I don't trust 769 00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,279 Speaker 1: the Chargers defense yet. I feel like they haven't really 770 00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,799 Speaker 1: faced a top offense yet and that they could get 771 00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:52,279 Speaker 1: a little bit exposed by the Bengals. And if they do, 772 00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,560 Speaker 1: this line goes up because the Ravens are better than 773 00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,440 Speaker 1: the Bengals offensively, and I think they can really hurt them. 774 00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:01,600 Speaker 1: That the Ravens defense that we talked about. I'm not 775 00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:04,560 Speaker 1: sure the Chargers can hit those explosives and hurt them 776 00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:06,359 Speaker 1: the way that some other teams can. Just the way 777 00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,520 Speaker 1: that they're playing. There's already a three and a half 778 00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:11,200 Speaker 1: out there. We maybe could wait and get below a 779 00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:12,680 Speaker 1: key number if this goes the right way, But I 780 00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:14,560 Speaker 1: think if I'm right about how I think feel about 781 00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:17,120 Speaker 1: these teams. I want the minus three now because then 782 00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:20,319 Speaker 1: this goes up Monday Night football road favorites of three 783 00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:22,799 Speaker 1: to seven points historically, as it gets spot fifty eight 784 00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:27,000 Speaker 1: percent ats there. And the Ravens usually don't win close 785 00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,680 Speaker 1: games anyway. With they just won by a point against 786 00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,120 Speaker 1: the Bengals, but their last one that wasn't by at 787 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:35,839 Speaker 1: least three was December twenty twenty two. So I think 788 00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,400 Speaker 1: we're kind of sneakily getting like a money line almost 789 00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:40,959 Speaker 1: here on just you know, I'm gonna like the Ravens better. 790 00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:42,840 Speaker 1: I know it's in LA, but we know how we 791 00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,000 Speaker 1: feel about that. That's not a home game for the Chargers. 792 00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,400 Speaker 1: They're gonna be Ravens fans there. So give me the 793 00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:50,000 Speaker 1: minus three and here's the half look ahead for you. 794 00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:54,400 Speaker 1: It's Thursday night tonight, so as a recording, the Commanders 795 00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:57,399 Speaker 1: play the Eagles, big spot. I'm looking ahead to next week. 796 00:36:57,440 --> 00:37:00,080 Speaker 1: I like Commanders minus nine and a half against the Cowboy. 797 00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:03,000 Speaker 1: I can't officially play it because you'd be crazy to 798 00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:05,200 Speaker 1: play it now not knowing what's happening tonight before you 799 00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,799 Speaker 1: listen tomorrow, let's like make sure Jane Daniels is healthy 800 00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,279 Speaker 1: and all that kind of stuff. But here's the weird thing. 801 00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:14,480 Speaker 1: This rivalry has not had close games. Five straight games 802 00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:18,400 Speaker 1: fifteen point margin or longer. Whatever happens in these games 803 00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,200 Speaker 1: between these ravels is not a close game. Nine of 804 00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:24,480 Speaker 1: the last ten games by double digits. Average margin in 805 00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:26,600 Speaker 1: those games twenty three and a half points. The last 806 00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:29,879 Speaker 1: game closer than seven was twenty eighteen, playing twice a year. 807 00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:32,120 Speaker 1: So I'm just going to take the better team. Washington's 808 00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:35,279 Speaker 1: way better. Already crapped on Dallas earlier. They're not a 809 00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:38,040 Speaker 1: good team. Washington has won by twenty one or more 810 00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,399 Speaker 1: three times, Dallas has lost by twenty five or more 811 00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:43,560 Speaker 1: three times. They've allowed almost thirty five points a game 812 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,320 Speaker 1: in the last four, So minus nine and a half, 813 00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:48,360 Speaker 1: keep it below the ten. I think it's gonna end 814 00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,359 Speaker 1: up getting one of those. Like the Lions, tips spread 815 00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:53,880 Speaker 1: up by thirteen to fourteen by kickoff home game for Washington. 816 00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:57,520 Speaker 1: Dallas is cooked. I think they're done. So bonus look 817 00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:00,680 Speaker 1: ahead to grab after the Thursday night game. Main look 818 00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:04,000 Speaker 1: ad Monday night Ravens minus three against the Chargers. 819 00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:06,520 Speaker 3: Like a true NFL fan, Brandon looking ahead to the 820 00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:09,920 Speaker 3: hardball Ball next weekend. So that's fantastic. All right, guys, 821 00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,279 Speaker 3: this has been fun. This was the week eleven Best 822 00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,400 Speaker 3: Bets podcast. Brandon gave you a ton of action, so 823 00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,400 Speaker 3: just make sure you go into the app, read the articles. 824 00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:20,279 Speaker 3: All will be set up and laid out for you, 825 00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:23,799 Speaker 3: and enjoy the games, enjoy the slate, and see you 826 00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:26,239 Speaker 3: guys again next week for the Action Network podcast. I'm 827 00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:44,200 Speaker 3: Evan Abrams. That's Brandon Anderson, and enjoy everyone. 828 00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:48,719 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 829 00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:52,080 Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 830 00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:54,879 Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 831 00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:55,760 Speaker 2: hundred Gambler