1 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: From Bloomberg News and I Heart Radio. It's the big take. 2 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: I'm West Kasova. Today China's economy comes roaring back. They 3 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: chant chi Jiping stepped down, an extraordinary show of defiance 4 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: in China. In Shanghai, they chant for freedom, democracy and 5 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:41,840 Speaker 1: end to COVID lockdowns. There's been mixed signals, but now 6 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: clearly because hong Zo, Shanghai, Beijing, shen Jen, guang Zhoe, 7 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 1: jong Jo, iPhone City and many more are all starting 8 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:53,519 Speaker 1: to loosen their COVID restrictions, including relaxing some of those 9 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: PCR test requirements. What a difference a month or so makes. 10 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: At the start of December, China was still in COVID 11 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 1: zero lockdown, and as you heard there, people were fed 12 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 1: up with being stuck indoors. Now, in part because of 13 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 1: those protests, the government has significantly eased COVID restrictions. China's 14 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 1: people are going out and getting back to work, and 15 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 1: that means It's economy is starting to rev back up 16 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 1: to China's reopening will be felt around the world as 17 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:27,679 Speaker 1: travel picks up and the nation resumes buying products of 18 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 1: all kinds. But that economic boost potentially also comes with 19 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 1: a big catch. Bloomberg's chief economist, Tom Orlick in Washington 20 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: and chief Asia economics correspondent in The Current in Hong Kong, 21 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 1: are here with me now to explain. Tom, you and 22 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 1: Enda and several of our Bloomberg colleagues have written a 23 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 1: story that explains how China's reopening will be felt around 24 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: the world. Why was the COVID zero policy such a 25 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: big deal for China is academy and really the global academy. 26 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 1: So COVID zero is widely presented as a serious policy 27 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 1: error by Beijing. In fact, it's brought some pretty significant positives. Yes, 28 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 1: the impact of COVID sweeping across the country was delayed, 29 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 1: rather than entirely prevented, But that period where China was 30 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: locked down, initially the entire country and then rolling lockdowns 31 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: across cities to try and keep infections as close to 32 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 1: zero as possible, it had an important benefit for public health. 33 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: It allowed time for vaccines to go into arms. Not 34 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 1: as many vaccines as the epidemiologists would have liked, but 35 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 1: certainly a lot of vaccines went into arms. And it 36 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:55,920 Speaker 1: also allowed time for COVID itself to diminish in lethality. 37 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 1: And what that hopefully means is that now China's opened 38 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:03,839 Speaker 1: up from COVID zero, the public health cost, the sicknesses, 39 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 1: the debts are going to be less much less than 40 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 1: they would have been if China had allowed COVID to 41 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: sweep across the population right at the beginning of as 42 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:18,360 Speaker 1: occurred in the United States and lots of European countries. 43 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: There were some public health benefits, there was some really 44 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:26,959 Speaker 1: serious economic costs. When you lock an economy down is 45 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 1: inevitable that you're going to suffer. Workers can't go to 46 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: their factories or their offices, households can't go to the shops, 47 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 1: and what that means is you have a big negative 48 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 1: impact on growth. So a Chinese economy which went into 49 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: COVID growing around six percent a year last year grew 50 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 1: just three and end of that slow down in China's 51 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 1: economy affected not just where Time is describing, which is 52 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: domestic economy, but what China was buying and selling to 53 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: the rest of the world. Yeah, I would add to 54 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 1: what Tom said there in that China's COVID zero also 55 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 1: hugely benefited the nation's factories during twenty one, in that 56 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 1: when the rest of the world was having problems keeping 57 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 1: its supply lines running and keeping its factories and stores staffed. 58 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 1: China was able to produce everything that the rest of 59 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 1: the world wanted and cashed in on this extraordinary boom 60 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 1: for buying merchandise goods around the rest of the world. 61 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 1: So if the COVID zero policy is credited with allowing 62 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 1: China's manufacturing based to continue more or less uninterrupted, so 63 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 1: that was another economic plus. But you know a Thoma 64 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:40,720 Speaker 1: was saying the ultimately it was unsustainable to spill over 65 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 1: from that slowdown in China. Men there were no Chinese 66 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 1: tourists going overseas, there were no Chinese students going overseas. 67 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 1: The exchange of no how in two way people flow 68 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: between China, the world's as second larges economy, and other 69 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:57,720 Speaker 1: major trading partners wasn't happening. There was a whole series 70 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: of hindrances whereby China went from being typically the global 71 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 1: growth driver of the world economy to slipping down the 72 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 1: ranks a little bit. And I think last year there's 73 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: a lot of focus on the US picking up the 74 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: growth mat on as China slipped back. So there were 75 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 1: clear benefits early on, and I would say the merchandise 76 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 1: trade boom was one of them. But then the benefits, 77 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:18,480 Speaker 1: the economic benefits became kind of diminishing returns as time 78 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: went on. You mentioned tourism and a couple of other things. 79 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 1: What are other economic effects of China just not participating 80 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:30,840 Speaker 1: as vigorously in the world economy as they did before COVID. 81 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:35,480 Speaker 1: What was the As you mentioned, there's the basic services 82 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:38,480 Speaker 1: trade effect, the impact of those tourists rich economies, especially 83 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:41,839 Speaker 1: in Southeast Asia, the lives of Australian elsewhere, not just 84 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 1: tourists but also students. They were losing out on the 85 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: big China dollar spend that was a feature of pre 86 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 1: COVID China. But I think also there was a human 87 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 1: side to it. By the way, in terms of business 88 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 1: people in chambers of commerce in China itself, we're speaking 89 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 1: out loud against COVID zero. That was something very unusual. 90 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:02,240 Speaker 1: Normally companies don't really speak out against a host government 91 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:05,359 Speaker 1: per se. But they wore their critical overl just because 92 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 1: they couldn't get stuff in, They couldn't have those exchanges 93 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: with their colleagues, they couldn't do all the rudimentary kind 94 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,839 Speaker 1: of business travel that's needed to keep the flow of 95 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:15,480 Speaker 1: global commerce and trade ticking over. So as I say, 96 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: there's the obvious spill over and industrial sectors like our 97 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 1: insectors such as services and so on. But also there 98 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 1: was a human sign to the impact of COVID zero. 99 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 1: And it wasn't just COVID zero. China's policymakers, because they 100 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: were so successful in containing the virus in the first 101 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 1: part of twenty succumbs to an unfortunate bout of hubris. 102 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:40,159 Speaker 1: They decided we contained COVID, we can do a bunch 103 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 1: of other stuff as well. So in the second half 104 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: of twenty you had a sweeping shift in policy on 105 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 1: the property sector, something which is referred to as that 106 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 1: three redlines policy, cutting off sources of finance for real 107 00:06:55,560 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: estate developers. That really hammered the investment, which the big 108 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 1: driver of China's growth. And you had the Common Prosperity Agenda, 109 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:10,679 Speaker 1: an attempt by Shi Jinping to engineer a more equitable 110 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: Chinese economy by smacking down what he sees as the 111 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 1: excess power of the tech monopolists Jack mar and Ali Baba, 112 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 1: pony Maa at ten Cents and other similar entrepreneurs, and 113 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: those forces together they really dealt a really serious blow 114 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 1: to China's growth, and as Enter said, from the perspective 115 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 1: of global businesses, they really changed the view on China 116 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 1: to pretty unbridled optimism to quite a lot of pessimism. 117 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 1: Chinese economy seems about to open back up in a 118 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 1: big way. So what does that look like for China's economy. So, 119 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 1: in fact, whereas you're completely right, the COVID zero policy 120 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 1: has shifted, but in fact all of the policy which 121 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: I just mentioned have shifted. So at the end of 122 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 1: last year, we had an extraordinary wave of protests across 123 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 1: major Chinese cities, frustration at years of lockdowns bubbling up, 124 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: and that seems to have catalyzed a big move in Beijing, 125 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: and they moved away from COVID zero a lot quicker 126 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 1: than most people were expecting. At the same time, we've 127 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 1: had a wave of support for the property sector. The 128 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 1: financing taps for developers have been turned on a little bit, 129 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 1: Mortgages are now more available for home buyers, so prospects 130 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:41,560 Speaker 1: for property are a little bit stronger. And the Common 131 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 1: Prosperity agenda that cracked down on entrepreneurs that isn't quite 132 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 1: so in evidence either. So there's been a big policy 133 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: shift away from containing the virus and achieving desirable long 134 00:08:56,240 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 1: term objectives like containing the property bubble and achieving more 135 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: equity and income distribution towards all out support for growth. 136 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 1: And what that means is that prospects for China this 137 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 1: year are looking quite a lot stronger. I mentioned that 138 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:16,959 Speaker 1: China's economy expanded just three this year. If you put 139 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: together the exit from COVID zero, the shift on property, 140 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 1: the shift on the policy on tech entrepreneurs, our forecast 141 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:26,960 Speaker 1: is that China this year will grow five point eight percent, 142 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:31,319 Speaker 1: and in an upside scenario where everything goes right for Beijing, 143 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 1: they could do even better than that. Tom and and 144 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:39,880 Speaker 1: Uh please stick around. Our conversation will continue after the break. 145 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 1: And as we heard Tom say just a minute ago, 146 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 1: COVID zero ending in China opening up means that it's 147 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:59,320 Speaker 1: economy could grow much more quickly this year. What are 148 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:04,839 Speaker 1: the industries that will open up first, and what kind 149 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 1: of effect is this going to have on the rest 150 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 1: of the world. So that I m F have said 151 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 1: it's the single most important thing for the global economy 152 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:14,680 Speaker 1: this year. It has been seen as a game changer 153 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 1: for the global session debate for example, ways the most 154 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:22,200 Speaker 1: obvious areas are number one commodities. Like Tom said, if 155 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 1: China's economy gets humming again, not just because of the 156 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 1: COVID zero, but because of the housing sector picking up, 157 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 1: look for imports of iron ore and copper to pick up. 158 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 1: Copper prices already rallying back above nine thousand dollar a ton, 159 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,559 Speaker 1: the Chilean Paso rallying on one of the channery upening 160 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: bets because Chile is such a big producer of gaber. Indeed, 161 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: so the whole commodities raw materials input story is there, 162 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 1: and then of course we're back to the services story, 163 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:52,320 Speaker 1: which is well understood, but specifically there you're talking about 164 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: demand for airline tickets, demand for hotel rooms around the world, 165 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:59,439 Speaker 1: demand for tourism resorts. You have the Thai government senior 166 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: officials greeting Chinese tourists with garlands when the first plane 167 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 1: arrived in Shaman on January nine, and camera crews were 168 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 1: actually there at the airport to capture the moment. The 169 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:13,680 Speaker 1: news network France twenty four talked to some Chinese tourists 170 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:17,439 Speaker 1: who are arriving on the flight. Yeah, I'm very excited 171 00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 1: to come back to Thailand well meeting for three years 172 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:25,199 Speaker 1: already before well COVID. We come here every year and 173 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 1: at this time I take my family to come here, 174 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 1: So there's going to be a significant spillover. I think 175 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 1: Asia will be on the front line of the tourism impact, 176 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:36,960 Speaker 1: but so will major developed economies like the UK and Japan. 177 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 1: The US. I guess might be less clear given the 178 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: political tensions, but I would say commodities will be channel 179 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 1: number one for the spin over. Services will be channel 180 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 1: number two. And the other impact probably will be infinancial markets, 181 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 1: just lifting global sentiment, and we're already seeing money or 182 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 1: turned to China for the first time in a while. 183 00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 1: I think we're also going to see the Chinese shoppers 184 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:01,079 Speaker 1: hitting the high street again, right. I don't think there's 185 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 1: quite the same pent up savings story in China that 186 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: there was in the United States. In the back end 187 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:14,200 Speaker 1: of one. China didn't go quite so far in terms 188 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: of stimulus. There weren't checks going out and padding people's 189 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:22,079 Speaker 1: bank accounts um and I think Chinese households are also 190 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: going to be kind of a bit cautious because they 191 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: do see some headwinds still coming in the medium term, right. 192 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 1: They see that there's still problems in the property sector. 193 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:34,440 Speaker 1: For example, Still, if you've been stuck at home or 194 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 1: fearing being stuck at home for the best part of 195 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:40,199 Speaker 1: three years, and you've got some extra funds in your 196 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: bank account, when the economy reopens again, I think there's 197 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: going to be a sort of a temptation to hit 198 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: the shops. So that's going to be good news for 199 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 1: the big Chinese brands. It's going to be big news 200 00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 1: for the big multinational brands that sell in China. Apple 201 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: are going to be seeing more foot traffic at the stores. 202 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 1: McDonald's are going to be seeing more people popping in 203 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 1: for a burger, And of course the fact that foreign 204 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: business people can now travel in and out to see 205 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 1: their staff and see their companies. That's an important part 206 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 1: of the whole foreign investment framework because last year executives 207 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,079 Speaker 1: were at their wits end and we're looking for talking 208 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 1: about alternatives to channel. We should say, though, was at 209 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 1: this point, let's not forget the public health crisis, because 210 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: the lack of transparency around the total caseload and the 211 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: total fatality rate means there's an unknown quantity with the 212 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 1: COVID outbreaking China by extension, it's not yet known how 213 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:38,439 Speaker 1: to willfully impact consumer confidence or how long it might 214 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:42,120 Speaker 1: take consumer confidence to return from that. The whole kind 215 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 1: of bullish reopening Shina story is out there. It's probably 216 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 1: the biggest talking point, certainly in this part of the world, 217 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 1: but there is a caveat in terms of we don't 218 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 1: yet know how this crisis will play out and what 219 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,320 Speaker 1: the long term lasting impact on consumer confidence might be. 220 00:13:56,040 --> 00:14:00,600 Speaker 1: I'm curious and sitting in Hong Kong, How loan do 221 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: you think this kind of painful period where the infections 222 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: are sweeping the country is going to last? How long 223 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:09,920 Speaker 1: do you think it's going to be before we're back 224 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:13,440 Speaker 1: to something which looks like a kind of post pandemic normal. 225 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 1: End of the first quarter into the second quarter, Well, 226 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 1: we'll have just have gotten over a lunar new year, 227 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 1: and of course that will mean in all likelihood the 228 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 1: infectionary will have spread across regional and rural China, so 229 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:28,560 Speaker 1: all of China will be feeling the brunt of this outbreak. 230 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 1: Hong Kong is interesting that we also had COVID zero 231 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: up until maybe at some point last year, when the 232 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: authorities then pivoted and money said Hong Kong was a 233 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 1: was a guinea pig for broader China. It's taken Hong 234 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 1: Kong some time to recover confidence from the draconian measures 235 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 1: that we were under. Still isn't back to where it was. 236 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 1: Retail spending still isn't back to where it was. Tours 237 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 1: or not yet turning the way they wore. And it's 238 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 1: not a mirror image of what's happening Channa, but there 239 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 1: might be some elements of caution there for the consumer 240 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 1: rebound time is Anders said. The i m F, the 241 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 1: International Military Funds says that China's reopening is the biggest 242 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 1: story of the year, and how all of this money 243 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 1: is going to be unleashed in China and around the 244 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 1: world is their way of measuring what the economic impact 245 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: of that will be. So, China's the second biggest economy 246 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 1: in the world, and if you take account of difference 247 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 1: in purchasing power across economies, it's actually the biggest. So 248 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 1: when an economy of that size goes from three percent 249 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 1: growth to probably something close to six percent growth, that 250 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 1: has a big global impact. Now, as Ender mentioned, it's 251 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 1: going to be most visible for China's neighbors in Asia, 252 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 1: countries that are caught up in the same manufacturing supply chains, 253 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:55,840 Speaker 1: countries that benefit from the arrival of Chinese tourists Chinese 254 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 1: business people. But it's going to be an impact which 255 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 1: ripples around the world. Estimates suggest that the difference between 256 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 1: a China growing at three and a China growing at 257 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 1: six pc is around no point five percentage points of 258 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,720 Speaker 1: global growth. A different way of thinking about it is 259 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 1: the equivalent of adding an economy the size of Nigeria 260 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:24,640 Speaker 1: to the global economy. Our conversation continues after the break, 261 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 1: tom as you and and in our colleagues right in 262 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: your story. All of this money unleashed into the world economy, 263 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 1: which is a good thing, also comes with a big catch. 264 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 1: The last time we talked in November about the possibility 265 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 1: of continued inflation around the world, you said, wait till 266 00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 1: next year when China reopens. We could then really see 267 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 1: what inflation can do. And here we are talking about that. 268 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:07,919 Speaker 1: What is the big catch? So it's funny, ways, um, 269 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,159 Speaker 1: if we spin the calendar all the way back to 270 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, to the dark days of the 271 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 1: global financial crisis, China played a really important role in 272 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 1: getting the global economy going again. China's four trillion yuan stimulus, 273 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:28,680 Speaker 1: launched at the end of two thousand and eight, unleashed 274 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:32,680 Speaker 1: a wave of demand, and exactly the moment the rest 275 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 1: of the world was in a slump and needed that 276 00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 1: kick to get going again. In China helped out the 277 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:43,360 Speaker 1: rest of the world again, but this time not by 278 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 1: adding to global demand, but rather by taking away from it, 279 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,159 Speaker 1: by staying locked down, by taking a big hit to 280 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 1: growth at home, China subtracted from global demand, and with 281 00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:00,400 Speaker 1: the rest of the world grappling with really, really high inflation, 282 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 1: that was actually an important contribution. If China had been booming, 283 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 1: in inflation in the United States and in Europe would 284 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 1: have been even higher than it was, because China buys 285 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 1: so much, and if it were sucking up so much 286 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 1: of the world's resources at a time when everyone was 287 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,919 Speaker 1: looking for it, that prices would have been driven even higher. 288 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 1: Exactly now is meant to be the year where the 289 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:33,160 Speaker 1: US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank and all 290 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 1: the other big central banks start to get inflation under control. 291 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:42,200 Speaker 1: So inflation is probably going to fall from about ten 292 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: percent in the third quarter of last year to about 293 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: three at the end of this year. China's reopening has 294 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 1: now introduced a wild card into that process. The Chinese 295 00:18:55,560 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: buyer is back. That's positive for oil prices, it's positive 296 00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 1: agricultural commodity prices, is positive for exports across all of 297 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 1: China's trade partners. And the risk is that adds a 298 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 1: new impulse to inflation just when the FED and others 299 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 1: hope to be getting it back towards their target. And 300 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:22,119 Speaker 1: what are some examples of how China opening up and 301 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:26,639 Speaker 1: starting to buy by by again will have this inflationary 302 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 1: effect and the global economy well, one area to keep 303 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 1: an eye on is the price of oil. China is 304 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 1: the world's biggest importer of oil, and last year it's 305 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 1: demand was the weakest sin according to the International Energy Agency, 306 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 1: So there's a feeling that of China comes back in 307 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 1: the oil market in a material way, that's an obvious 308 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 1: channel where you can see China's returning. Interestingly, policy makers 309 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 1: are keeping an eye on that. For example, South Korea's 310 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:56,440 Speaker 1: Central Bank governor recently made the point that china Is 311 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 1: reopening will be a good thing because it means they 312 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: will buy more South Korean goods, But he also said 313 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 1: he's worried about the impact it will have, for example, 314 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,880 Speaker 1: on the price of oil, which will of course ultimately 315 00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:11,240 Speaker 1: mean higher inflation for South Korea, another one of the 316 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 1: world's economies where interest rates are going up. So I 317 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 1: think that's one factor to keep an eye on. Now, 318 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 1: within that there are variables, and of course the energy 319 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 1: experts can drill into it further. But the role of 320 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:25,920 Speaker 1: Russia and supplying perhaps cheaper oil to China could take 321 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,840 Speaker 1: the edge of some of that story. But I would 322 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:30,680 Speaker 1: certainly in terms of when it comes to channels and 323 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:32,479 Speaker 1: when you want to look at charts and say, how 324 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 1: do we gauge China's reopening impact on the rest of 325 00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: the world, keep an eye on the price of energy. 326 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,800 Speaker 1: A couple of thoughts to add to that. Firstly, if 327 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 1: you look at a chart of China's oil imports, it 328 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 1: is on a very very steady rising trend for many 329 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: many years up to the start of and at the 330 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,920 Speaker 1: beginning of twenty when COVID hits and China locks down, 331 00:20:56,640 --> 00:21:00,119 Speaker 1: China's oil imports flatline, and for the last three as 332 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,479 Speaker 1: they have grown at all. So I think that the 333 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 1: idea with the reopening one point four billion people getting 334 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 1: back in their cars, getting back on their trains, getting 335 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 1: back on airplanes for international travel. Now the borders open 336 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:16,960 Speaker 1: is going to drive more demand for oil. I think 337 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 1: that idea is pretty well founded in the data. And 338 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 1: then the second thought, just to build on enders remarks, 339 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 1: is it's not just the Korean Central Bank governor who's 340 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 1: got his eyes on this. We had a speech by 341 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 1: Lal Brainard, the Vice chair of the US Federal Reserve, 342 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:37,080 Speaker 1: in January, where she flagged China reopening and what that 343 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 1: means for commodities as a risk that she's looking at. 344 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:45,400 Speaker 1: We had the European Central Banks Christine Legarde in Davos, 345 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 1: raising the same concerns. This is something which is a 346 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 1: live issue, which is very much on the radar of 347 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 1: the world's top monetary policymakers. Since this is such a 348 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:59,200 Speaker 1: pressing concern, have these leaders come up with ways to 349 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 1: offer that the harmful inflationary effects that you're describing, I'm 350 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,720 Speaker 1: afraid it's the blunt instrument of interest rates. Again, Whereas 351 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 1: the hope for many in the financial markets, the hope 352 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,919 Speaker 1: for households looking to borrow money to buy a house, 353 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 1: the hope for businesses that need to borrow to finance 354 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,920 Speaker 1: their operations. Is that the end of the rate hike 355 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:24,400 Speaker 1: cycle from the FED and other central banks is coming 356 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:28,160 Speaker 1: into sight, and that's the baseline forecast from most economists. 357 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:32,000 Speaker 1: Most economists think the FED and the ECB have got 358 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:34,640 Speaker 1: a couple more rate hikes to come, and then it's 359 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 1: going to be not quite mission accomplished. But we've done enough. 360 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,160 Speaker 1: Let's let these rate hikes do their work, and inflation 361 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 1: is going to start coming back towards target. But if 362 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:49,760 Speaker 1: China reopening gives a big boost global growth pushes commodity 363 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 1: prices onto a sharply rising trajectory, we could find that 364 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 1: come the second quarter, the FED and the ECB need 365 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:00,080 Speaker 1: to do a little bit more and they're not on 366 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 1: with rate hikes quite as soon as the markets and 367 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 1: businesses and home buyers hope they are. If I could 368 00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 1: extend that a little bit, we as It could also 369 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,400 Speaker 1: be that the moment when central banks start to bring 370 00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 1: down borrowing costs gets pushed out further. So, as Tom mentioned, 371 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:17,959 Speaker 1: this year is meant to be the year when central 372 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,480 Speaker 1: banks at least pause pushing up rate hikes because inflation 373 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: is supposed to come under control. But the danger and 374 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:27,240 Speaker 1: the expectation then was that maybe later in the year 375 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 1: some of these central banks could start to bring down 376 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 1: boring costs because they're comfortable inflations under control. Let's give 377 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:36,320 Speaker 1: the economy from support again. But the China factor means 378 00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 1: that the ability to bring down or to cut rates 379 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:41,480 Speaker 1: may not be there. It's just another complication in the 380 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 1: inflation story. And it would be a big call for 381 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 1: central banks to reach a point where they're comfortable that 382 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 1: inflation is back where they wanted to be. Given all 383 00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:53,360 Speaker 1: that we've been talking about here, do you think then 384 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:58,040 Speaker 1: that China's reopening is a net negative or a net 385 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 1: positive for the global economy. I mean, I think you've 386 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,880 Speaker 1: got to think, first of all, about the human story. Right, 387 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:11,159 Speaker 1: one point four billion people lockdown, fearing lockdowns that mercifully 388 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,880 Speaker 1: has now come to an end, right, And I think 389 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,760 Speaker 1: that's of the primary lens through which we think about 390 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 1: China exiting from lockdown. When it comes to the global economy, 391 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,679 Speaker 1: I think one way to think about it is who's 392 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,440 Speaker 1: going to benefit and who's going to lose out from 393 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:32,640 Speaker 1: the reopening. So if you're sitting in Saudi Arabia, remember 394 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:36,040 Speaker 1: President she of China just made a trip to Saudi 395 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 1: Arabia to meet the leaders. There, you're looking at China's 396 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,720 Speaker 1: households getting back in their cars and on the bus 397 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:44,760 Speaker 1: and on the train, and you're looking at your oil 398 00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,359 Speaker 1: revenue and you're pretty happy about it. If you're in 399 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,880 Speaker 1: Brazil or Australia thinking about how much iron ore you're 400 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 1: going to sell, you're pretty happy about it. If you're 401 00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 1: in Thailander's end of mentioned, you've gone to the airport 402 00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 1: with your Garlands to hang around the first Chinese visit. 403 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,199 Speaker 1: It is arriving right. So there are countries around the 404 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:07,280 Speaker 1: world that are really significant beneficiaries of China reopening. The 405 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:11,160 Speaker 1: inflation cost that's going to be something that's bowed by everybody. Yeah, 406 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 1: I would just add that it has added to a 407 00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,840 Speaker 1: big shift in tone towards the world economy this year. Wise, 408 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 1: only a few weeks ago, it was all about Western 409 00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 1: Europe's energy crisis. Jonas Covid zero risk of a global session, 410 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 1: which is something very unusually in itself. And here we 411 00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 1: are now approaching February and that story has changed dramatically. 412 00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,720 Speaker 1: Nobody's calling a dramatic rebound, I think for global growth 413 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,480 Speaker 1: per se, but certainly the talk of a global session 414 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:39,720 Speaker 1: is much diminished, and so much of that is down 415 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 1: to John's reopening and the current Tom Orleck, thanks so 416 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 1: much for joining me today. Great to be here was 417 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:53,480 Speaker 1: thank you, as you can read more from Tom Orlick 418 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 1: and and a current at Bloomberg dot com. Thanks for 419 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,399 Speaker 1: listening to us here at The Big Day. It's a 420 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 1: daily podcast from Bloomberg and I Heart Radio. For more 421 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 1: shows from my Heart Radio, visit the I Heart Radio app, 422 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and we'd love to 423 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,680 Speaker 1: hear from you. Email us questions or comments to Big 424 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:19,359 Speaker 1: Take at Bloomberg dot net. The supervising producer of The 425 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:24,440 Speaker 1: Big Take is Vicky Ergolina. Our senior producer is Katherine Fink. 426 00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 1: Our producers are Michael Flero and Moe barrow Kill de 427 00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 1: Garcia is our engineer. Our original music was composed by 428 00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 1: Leo Sidrin. I'm Westkasova. We'll be back tomorrow with another 429 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:39,360 Speaker 1: Big Take