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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday.

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Speaker 2: We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do

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Speaker 2: we have, Crystal, Indeed we do.

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Speaker 1: It is a very big and frankly very scary week.

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Speaker 1: Today or tomorrow we're going to learn Kamo's VP pick.

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Speaker 1: So there's been fevered speculation. We'll tell you what we know.

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Speaker 1: Where everybody stands and who is lobbying for who. It's

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Speaker 1: gotten very very interesting. We also have some new polls

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Speaker 1: revealing the current state of the race that are quite interesting.

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Speaker 1: The gender divide actually a little bit smaller than I expected,

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Speaker 1: given us just one pole though and very close race.

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Speaker 1: I think that's the bottom line. We are in truly

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Speaker 1: toss up territory. We also are taking a look at

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Speaker 1: what is a terrifying situation in the Middle East. Everybody

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Speaker 1: waiting to see what the Iranian response is going to

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Speaker 1: be to that assassination that occurred by Israel on their soil.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Tree to Parsi is going to join us to

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Speaker 1: talk about what we could be facing this week. We

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Speaker 1: also have stock markets crashing around the world, a huge

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Speaker 1: sell off, Japan's index dropping the largest single drop in

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Speaker 1: a day. This comes on the heels of a very

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Speaker 1: poor jobs report here in the US and some indications

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Speaker 1: that we could be heading into a recession, so very

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Speaker 1: scary signs to take a look at their Sacer and

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Speaker 1: I are going to dig into this Olympic gender controversy,

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Speaker 1: and soccer is very excited to talk about.

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Speaker 3: It'll be fun. We'll give everybody the details.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, of course, we'll just you know, break down the

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Speaker 1: politics of it, how this whole thing took off, What

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Speaker 1: we know, what we don't know, because there is a

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Speaker 1: lot of fiction to sort through with regard to this

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Speaker 1: boxer in the Olympics. And we also have Jordan Sheridan

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Speaker 1: on He wrote a new book about the poisoning of flint,

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Speaker 1: which obviously very relevant continues to be with Michigan being

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Speaker 1: a battle ground state. And also given the fact that

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Speaker 1: you know, this isn't the only place that has been

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Speaker 1: poisoned in America with little repercussions and little pay, little

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Speaker 1: sort of compensation for the victims of said poisoning, so

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Speaker 1: we'll have a look at that as well.

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Speaker 3: Yes, that's right.

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Speaker 2: our tou tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of new

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Speaker 2: didn't get to take advantage of that, perhaps we'll bring

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Speaker 2: it back. But breakingpoints dot com, if you want to

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Speaker 2: check it out, we are going to continue delivering our service.

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Speaker 2: to take advantage of Breakingpoints dot com, and we will

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Speaker 2: certainly bring it back sometime in the future, stay tuned

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Speaker 2: for that. Let's go ahead, though, Crystal and begin with

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Speaker 2: the VP speculation, which we've only got a limited amount

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Speaker 2: of time before we may even learn who it is.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we actually put this block first in the show

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Speaker 1: because this could leak out.

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Speaker 4: The news could leak.

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Speaker 1: Out at any time, so we wanted to record this

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Speaker 1: and get it out before it becomes outdated. Let's put

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Speaker 1: this first piece up on the screen so we know

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Speaker 1: that she has sort of narrowed her list to six.

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Speaker 1: In particular, You've got Governor Andy was Cheer of Kentucky, JB.

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Speaker 1: Pritzker of Illinois, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Tim Walls of Minnesota,

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Speaker 1: Senator Mar Kelly of Arizona, and Transportation Secretary's Pete Budhagic

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Speaker 1: appear to be the final six. However, among those six,

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Speaker 1: there appear to be three that have the edge that

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Speaker 1: Kamala met with personally.

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Speaker 4: Yesterday in DC.

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Speaker 1: That would be Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania, Mark Kelly,

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Speaker 1: Senator of Arizona, and Governor Tim Walls of Minnesota. So,

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Speaker 1: first of all, Soccer, any sort of wild speculation that

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Speaker 1: you want to make here at the top about who

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Speaker 1: you think the pick might be.

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Speaker 2: Going to go Shapiro, I'd probably give it like a

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Speaker 2: fifty five percent shot, which shows by the way that

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Speaker 2: have not all that confident. I mean, it would perhaps

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Speaker 2: behoove Kamala just to pick somebody else, just to try

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Speaker 2: and get as big of a media pop but the

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Speaker 2: fundamentals of the race are still there. Pennsylvania is the

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Speaker 2: most likely tipping point state overwhelmingly popular governor. The other

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Speaker 2: two don't necessarily come from states that Kamala's is in

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Speaker 2: the same must win category. At the same time, vice

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Speaker 2: president usually doesn't matter, as we said here, but you know,

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Speaker 2: given his popularity in the state and perhaps in the

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Speaker 2: machine and other things that he might be able to

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Speaker 2: bring to bear. When we're talking about margins of just

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Speaker 2: a couple of ten fifteen thousand votes that have that

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Speaker 2: which is really what's happened a couple one hundred thousand

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Speaker 2: votes really in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, you need

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Speaker 2: all the help that you can get. So just given

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Speaker 2: the math and given the way that all the models

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Speaker 2: look and how twenty sixteen and twenty twenty played out,

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Speaker 2: I think Pennsylvania just seems like.

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Speaker 3: The most likely beat.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's probably Shapiro as well, although I'll

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Speaker 4: give you a.

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Speaker 1: Few reasons in a moment why possibly she would be

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Speaker 1: leery of picking the governor of Pennsylvania at this point.

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Speaker 1: Now this has developed into a real sort of like

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Speaker 1: ideological battle within the left and within the Democratic Party.

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Speaker 1: You had Joe Scarborough coming out a long tweet thread

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Speaker 1: defending Josh Shapiro and advocating for him and of course

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Speaker 1: smearing his critics as what else anti semites. Let's put

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Speaker 1: this up on the screen from Joe Scarborough. He says,

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Speaker 1: Josh Shapiro's governor of the most important state in this election.

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Speaker 1: That part is true. He's the most experienced leader and

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Speaker 1: gifted order of the remaining strong candidate's gifted order. If

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Speaker 1: you love a knock off Obama impression, he would present

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Speaker 1: voters with the most dynamic tickets since Clinton Gore in

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Speaker 1: ninety two. While as dynamicus al Gore soger incredible and

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Speaker 1: we'll be ready to serve on day one. He goes

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Speaker 1: on from there, he says, the whisper campaigns against Josh

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Speaker 1: Shapiro have dark undertones.

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Speaker 4: Breaking news He's Jewish.

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Speaker 1: But just as Thatcher was identified as a game changing

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Speaker 1: force in politics instead of a woman, Josh Shapiro's strengths

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Speaker 1: and talents would easily transcend bigotry and identity politics, and

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Speaker 1: then he continued on, don't understand the recent attacks on

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Speaker 1: the strongest VP contender. Well, it's a toxic mix of

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Speaker 1: anti Semitism, extremist views on Gaza, and jealous colleagues who

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Speaker 1: don't want to be blocked out of the presidential.

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Speaker 4: Sweepstakes for the next decade.

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Speaker 1: That last part is almost certainly about John Fetterman, who

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Speaker 1: interestingly has come out against Josh Shapiro.

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Speaker 4: They have a sort of like in state rivalry. I'll

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Speaker 4: show you that in a moment.

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Speaker 1: You know, Shapiro has become a bit of a lightning

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Speaker 1: rod in terms of this VP pick, because ideologically he

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Speaker 1: has been the most vocal and the most extreme in

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Speaker 1: terms of his rhetoric with regard to Israel and specifically

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Speaker 1: with regard to campus protesters. We showed you last week

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Speaker 1: him comparing pro Palestine protesters to the KKK. Since then,

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Speaker 1: his college writings about Palestinians and how they're too I

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Speaker 1: think it was battle minded for peace have come out now.

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Speaker 1: I don't think anyone should be judged by whatever the

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Speaker 1: hell they were saying in college.

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Speaker 4: I don't think that's fair whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: The problem is there's not a lot of indication that

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Speaker 1: he has actually changed his views with regard to this,

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Speaker 1: and so, you know, the charge of anti Semitism here,

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Speaker 1: first of all, ignores the fact that JB. Pritzker, also

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Speaker 1: in the list also Jewish. In addition, the same people

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Speaker 1: who are arguing against Josh Shapiro are the people who

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Speaker 1: literally lionize Bernie Sanders, who is also Jewish. So it's

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Speaker 1: a convenient, you know, scapegoating of the left, attempt to

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Speaker 1: dismiss legitimate criticism which isn't only centered around Gaza, but

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Speaker 1: also has to do with his support of charter schools.

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Speaker 1: That's why the labor movement is not a fan of him.

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Speaker 1: He's called for corporate taxes to be cut. And the

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Speaker 1: reason I think the two reasons why I think she

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Speaker 1: could could potentially pass on Shapiro at number one. You know,

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Speaker 1: this has opened up one of the fishers within the

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party that Kamala Harris had a chance to somewhat

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Speaker 1: move past right. A lot of people on the left

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Speaker 1: who were not going to vote for genocide Joe are

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Speaker 1: a little bit open to Kamala Harris because she doesn't

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Speaker 1: seem like so much of an id law on Israel,

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Speaker 1: and that's the best you're going to get in the

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party is someone who is not an ideological Zionist

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Speaker 1: who's willing to pay a political price in service of

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Speaker 1: that ideological position. The best you can hope for is

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Speaker 1: someone who is malleable. And that's why there's a little

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Speaker 1: bit more openness to Kamala Harris. Josh Shapiro seems to

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Speaker 1: fit much more in the Biden model, where he is

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Speaker 1: actually ideologically committed to the cause. And so you know,

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Speaker 1: she could just from a risk aversion standpoint, not want

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Speaker 1: to open up those rifts in the Democratic Party when

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Speaker 1: so much of her bump in the polls actually comes

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Speaker 1: from reconsolidating a Democratic base among young people and others

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Speaker 1: that had drifted away.

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Speaker 4: That's number one.

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Speaker 1: Number two, there are a couple of things that could

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Speaker 1: come up in the VET that are potentially problematic.

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Speaker 4: One of them has.

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Speaker 1: To do with this old case where a woman's death

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Speaker 1: was ruled a suicide even though she had ten to

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Speaker 1: fifteen stab wounds, and Shapiro's accused of having so sat

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Speaker 1: on this case, and he had a campaign contribution from

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Speaker 1: the individual who could be a murder suspect in that case.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's the type of thing that you could see,

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Speaker 1: you know, an ad maker really picking up and running

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Speaker 1: wild with So there's that, and there's also the allegations

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Speaker 1: of cover up of sexual harassment within his office, so

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Speaker 1: it's possible. And then the last thing, I guess there

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Speaker 1: is one other thing, which is he does read is

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Speaker 1: very ambitious, right, and his people around him have really

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Speaker 1: tried to create this aura of inevitability to his pick

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Speaker 1: as the VP, And it's possible that she doesn't like

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Speaker 1: the vibe of that, feels that he's going to you know,

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Speaker 1: overshadow her, feels that he's not going to be a

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Speaker 1: team player, really be interested, you know, primarily in his

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Speaker 1: own advancement. Like I said, I still think it's most

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Speaker 1: likely that Shapiro is chosen, But if he's not, I

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Speaker 1: think it would be more likely one of those reasons

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Speaker 1: than like, you know, that she actually has an ideological

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Speaker 1: issue with him or wants to please the left because

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Speaker 1: nobody at the top of the Democratic Party wants to

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Speaker 1: do that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well.

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Speaker 2: And look, let's be honest, you know, other contenders also

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Speaker 2: have significant basis. So we've been covering here Organized Labor

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Speaker 2: UAW president Sean Fain, who endorsed Kamala Harris, has come

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Speaker 2: out in favor of other candidates, So why don't we

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Speaker 2: take a listen to what he had to say.

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Speaker 5: We've really broken down these candidates, really looked at him,

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Speaker 5: and I'll tell you my favorite, Andy but Sheer from Kentucky.

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Speaker 5: I mean, the man stood with us, you know, on

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Speaker 5: the picket line. You know, he's been there for workers

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Speaker 5: throughout every bit of our walk. And you know he's

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Speaker 5: won in a state where Mitch McConnell's from. I mean,

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Speaker 5: it's been a red state traditionally. He's won twice there

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Speaker 5: and I just believe he brings a huge dynamic and

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Speaker 5: I believe the Harris the Sheer ticket would be unbeatable.

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Speaker 5: I believe both of them would just be such dynamic candidates.

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Speaker 5: But we really like Tim Wallas from Minnesota also, thank

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Speaker 5: he's an awesome guy for labor, one hundred percent behind labor,

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Speaker 5: And those would be our top two if we had

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Speaker 5: to pick any.

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Speaker 3: So I think that's significant, you know.

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Speaker 2: Nonetheless, with the auto workers specifically, if we think about

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Speaker 2: Michigan and the industrial Midwest, that could certainly come down

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Speaker 2: at the same time, he did endorse Kamala Harris already,

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Speaker 2: so it's already on board with the ticket. Nonetheless, you know,

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Speaker 2: certainly something that we should look to, especially with some

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Speaker 2: of the war between who she is going to pick.

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Speaker 2: I still think though, my foremost point stands whenever we

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Speaker 2: just look at Pennsylvania, the tipping point status and just

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Speaker 2: what he potentially could bring to that ticket, and just

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Speaker 2: all you have to do is drive out you know,

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Speaker 2: zero point five percent more of the vote, and in

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Speaker 2: Pennsylvania you so much more have an outsized influence. That's

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Speaker 2: why I just think the fundamentals are really strong there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it makes sense that Sean Fain would be a

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Speaker 1: big fan of Annie Basher because the state of Kentucky

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Speaker 1: there's quite a bit of auto manufacturing. They have a

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Speaker 1: large Ford truck assembly plant there that they've got a

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Speaker 1: lot of UAW members. They were involved in that stand

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Speaker 1: up strike that was so successful. There's also been part

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Speaker 1: of why Andysheer is so popular in the state of

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Speaker 1: Kentucky is he's brought a lot of manufacturing jobs into

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Speaker 1: the state, including union battery EV.

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Speaker 4: Battery jobs of the state.

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Speaker 1: So that's why he's got a close partnership and comfort

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Speaker 1: with Andy Basheer, and but Sheer also came in in

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Speaker 1: the wake of the teacher strike wave, and that was

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Speaker 1: very important to his election. So, you know, in the

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Speaker 1: state of Kentucky, even though it's a red state, quote unquote,

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Speaker 1: very pro union, very pro labor, and Andy Bisheer has

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Speaker 1: been very consistently pro union and pro labor. The other

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Speaker 1: candidate that he says he likes is Tim Wall's former

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Speaker 1: high school teacher, who has also been really consistently pro

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Speaker 1: labor and has become a real favorite of the progressive

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Speaker 1: wing of the Democratic Party because of how strong his

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Speaker 1: record has been in the state. And also I think

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Speaker 1: he's really won people over with how effective he is

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Speaker 1: in terms of his communication. Let's go ahead and skip

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Speaker 1: ahead to a five, because this was something that gave

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Speaker 1: the Walls heads out there a lot of hope. Apparently

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Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi is leaning in Tim Walls's favor. He's a

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Speaker 1: former in addition being the governor of Minnesota, actually served

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Speaker 1: in the House for quite a while. And this was

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Speaker 1: an article from The Hill that quoted hers, quoted those

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Speaker 1: around her as saying she's always especially fond of former

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Speaker 1: House colleagues, when asked about Harris's running, made a nod

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Speaker 1: to Walls, and other members of the House who had

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Speaker 1: served with him also were sort of like, you know,

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Speaker 1: pushing him and in favor of him as well. Apparently

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden really likes him because he just thought he

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Speaker 1: was fun to be around and for whatever that's worth.

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Speaker 1: So everyone's hoping that Nancy's gonna pull off another coup

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Speaker 1: here and get Walls on the ticket. If anyone could

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Speaker 1: do it, I guess it would be her. The other thing,

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Speaker 1: Sager go back to a four guys. This is the

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Speaker 1: Fetterman thing that I was talking about, which is kind of,

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Speaker 1: you know, this interra state party rivalry situation. Betterman has

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Speaker 1: concerns about Shapiro for VP. The bottom line here is

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Speaker 1: he is privately relayed that he Shapiro is sort of

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Speaker 1: overly ambitious, and there was a civic rub between the

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Speaker 1: two of them about the commutations board. There were two

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Speaker 1: prisoners being held in the state who were convicted always

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Speaker 1: maintained their innocence. There was a dispute over whether they

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Speaker 1: should be released or not. Fetterman thought that Shapir resisted

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Speaker 1: releasing them initially because of his own political personal ambition.

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Speaker 1: Later they did, you know, make it through that commutation

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Speaker 1: board and were released. So in any case, his bottom

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Speaker 1: line is sort of like, I guess they've never liked

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Speaker 1: each other. There's a sort of in state rivalry, and

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Speaker 1: he's telling the Harris team that he thinks this guy

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Speaker 1: is overly ambitious and more interested in his own political

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Speaker 1: prospects than anything else.

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Speaker 6: Hey.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, reading it, I was like, well, the fact that

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Speaker 2: they got commuted anyway tells me a little bit that

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Speaker 2: I don't think you really care. And that's just some

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Speaker 2: you know, like leak the best that you could possibly get.

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Speaker 2: It does sound more like he doesn't want to be

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Speaker 2: overshadowed in his own home state, just given what we

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Speaker 2: know a little bit about John Fetterman. Also, you know,

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Speaker 2: in the wake of the last you know, year or so,

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Speaker 2: in the way that he has comported himself, so he

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Speaker 2: wants to be the star. He really enjoys the national profile,

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Speaker 2: and it's not good whenever somebody else in your state

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Speaker 2: is going to do upstate. You you know, he probably

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Speaker 2: was the foremost national Pennsylvania politician and now Josh Shapiro

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Speaker 2: certainly would overtake. So I always describe the cynicism whenever

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Speaker 2: it comes to those people's That's what I make of

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Speaker 2: the Fetterman situation at least.

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Speaker 4: Yeah fair.

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Speaker 1: I mean, even though Fetterman in this instance happened to

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Speaker 1: come out on the same side of this issue as

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Speaker 1: I do, I agree with you wholeheartedly about what his

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Speaker 1: motivations are here. So moving on, let's put a seven

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Speaker 1: up on the screen here. This is about Andy Basheer.

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Speaker 1: He's apparently cleared his Tuesday calendar. Now, the reason that

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Speaker 1: this is significant is because we know Tuesday, Kamala is

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Speaker 1: going to do a rally in Philadelphia, which again made

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Speaker 1: people think, oh, which Shapiro is definitely Shapiro, but it's

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Speaker 1: going to be.

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Speaker 4: With whoever her VP pick is.

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Speaker 1: And so Andy Basheer is apparently cleared his Tuesday calendar,

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Speaker 1: which made people think, oh, maybe there's something going on here.

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Speaker 4: Who knows.

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Speaker 1: Everybody's just trying to read that he leaves at this point.

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Speaker 1: Who knows if that means anything at all. The case

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Speaker 1: for Andy, I think is sort of like a moderate

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Speaker 1: pick that won't piss off.

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Speaker 4: Anyone in the party, right. You know, he's obviously.

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Speaker 1: Got a great track record running and winning in a

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Speaker 1: very difficult state twice and having a very high popularity,

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Speaker 1: highest popularity of any Democratic governor in the entire country.

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Speaker 1: He's proven himself to be an able communicator in his

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Speaker 1: little cable news audition that all of these guys did

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Speaker 1: as part of this VP process, which has been kind

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Speaker 1: of funny to behold. But I sort of feel like

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Speaker 1: he's like the low risk option. You know, she doesn't

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Speaker 1: want to ruffle feathers by picking Shapiro and opening up

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Speaker 1: that rift. But she doesn't want to, you know, throw

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Speaker 1: the left a bone here with Tim Walls and all

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Speaker 1: of his progressive bona fides in terms of his record

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Speaker 1: in Minnesota. Perhaps Andy Basheer ends up being kind of

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Speaker 1: the safe, don't walk the boat, do no harm pick.

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Speaker 1: And like I said, he does bring assets to the

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Speaker 1: table in terms of being able to effectively communicate. Has

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Speaker 1: got a great Southern accent, you know, Democrats or suckers

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Speaker 1: for people who kind of play against type, and he's

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Speaker 1: got that going for him. So that would be kind

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Speaker 1: of the case for Annie Basher getting the nod here.

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Speaker 3: I could see.

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Speaker 2: Look, I mean, I can make a jiu jitsu case.

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Speaker 2: I think for all of these he's not terrible. He's

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Speaker 2: very popular Democratic governor. But I just don't see the

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Speaker 2: electoral calculus at the end of the day. I mean,

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Speaker 2: this is somebody who is from a R plus three

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Speaker 2: state and he's a very unique person. That's part of

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Speaker 2: the reason why these types of candidates very rarely do

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Speaker 2: well in the National Democratic Party because their uniqueness doesn't

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Speaker 2: necessarily suit to the overall ticket. Now, their argument could

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Speaker 2: be made he could help with Appalachian voters, but I

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Speaker 2: don't see that same case happening here because a lot

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Speaker 2: of those people are already just pro Trump. You know,

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Speaker 2: at the end of the day, they're not swing state

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Speaker 2: in the way they used to be. Really, the people

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Speaker 2: the vote that it's all going to come down to

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Speaker 2: is white, working class but older voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan,

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Speaker 2: and Wisconsin. And that's not necessarily the same graphic that

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Speaker 2: might have been up for grabs, let's say in twenty

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Speaker 2: and sixteen. So anyway, the way that I kind of

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Speaker 2: have been looking at each individual characteristic electorally just again

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Speaker 2: seems to come back to Shapiro. But and I think

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Speaker 2: this is one thing that you can't underestimate, and you've

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Speaker 2: been highlighting you also need to get along with the person.

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Speaker 2: Perhaps if you're a Kamala, she had a terrible time

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Speaker 2: as vice president. That is not abnormal historically. Usually vice

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Speaker 2: presidents are marginalized. They're very very rarely brought into the

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Speaker 2: inner circle. They're usually very ambitious, and that always sets

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Speaker 2: up like a loggerheads type of strategy. But you also

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Speaker 2: know that you're kind of picking your anointed successor in

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Speaker 2: a certain case. You know, if Shapiro remains to be

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Speaker 2: seen whether he knows how to be the number two

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Speaker 2: and basically just ate it for potentially four to eight

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Speaker 2: years before he could run. At the same time, you know,

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Speaker 2: he's a young man, so perhaps he could make that calculus.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I do think that the VP pick here

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Speaker 1: is very consequential.

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Speaker 4: Oh goodness, the dog has showed up.

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Speaker 1: I think it's consequential Number one, because Kamala is even

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Speaker 1: though she's been on the national stage for a while

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Speaker 1: and now she's been untested. Number two, because this is

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Speaker 1: very likely if Kamala and this person whoever they are,

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Speaker 1: lose this time around, is very likely your democratic nominee

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Speaker 1: next time. And if it's not next time, if they

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Speaker 1: do win, and then it'll you know, very likely the

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Speaker 1: time after that. So that's why the stakes in terms

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Speaker 1: of the direction of the Democratic Party are very high

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Speaker 1: with this pick, and so I think that's why the

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Speaker 1: battles of in fierce. It's also been funny to watch

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Speaker 1: it play out, just because it's such a condensed timeline,

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Speaker 1: like everyone dispensed with the sort of niceties of pretending

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Speaker 1: and just were like out there making the case for

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Speaker 1: themselves and different coalitions. There were a bunch of progressives

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Speaker 1: who put on a like a memo about the case

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Speaker 1: for Walls, and you got union leaders like Sean Fain

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Speaker 1: going out and making the case and Joe Scarborough making

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Speaker 1: the case.

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Speaker 4: Et cetera.

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Speaker 1: So it's been the most direct jockeying for this position

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Speaker 1: that I've ever seen, which I actually kind of appreciate,

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Speaker 1: Like why beat around the bush. You want the position, like,

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Speaker 1: go out there and make your case for it. And

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Speaker 1: you know, the last thing I'll say in regard to

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Speaker 1: Andy Wassheer, they could really like the way that he

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Speaker 1: was very effective in his campaign running on abortion right.

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Speaker 3: That's true in.

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Speaker 1: The state of Kentucky. And with regards to Tim Walls,

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Speaker 1: they could really like the fact that I mean, his

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Speaker 1: like weird characterization of the Republican Party really became instantly

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Speaker 1: central to the Kamlayeras campaign. So he definitely proved himself

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Speaker 1: in terms of his communication abilities. We'll see what the

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Speaker 1: personal fit is like.

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Speaker 4: And who she ends up going with. At the end

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Speaker 4: of the day.

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Speaker 1: I think it's still very much, very much open it. Listen,

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Speaker 1: it could be one of the ones we talked about

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Speaker 1: a little bit less to like a Pete boota judge,

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Speaker 1: et cetera. So a lot of things, a lot of

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Speaker 1: possibilities still on the table here.

438
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 2: Well, remain stay tuned and we of course bringing the

439
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 2: breaking news here at breaking points, so for all of

440
00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:48,200
Speaker 2: our Pream subscribers and others, you can keep your eyes

441
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:49,360
Speaker 2: glued to the channel.

442
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:52,560
Speaker 3: Let's move on to the polls.

443
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 2: There has been significant movement in the polls, just dramatically

444
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:56,600
Speaker 2: shifting the race.

445
00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 3: We all just have to sit and meditate.

446
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 2: It's only been like fifteen days since Commwa actually became

447
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 2: the Democratic nominee, and yet in that time we have

448
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,679
Speaker 2: seen a complete reversal of many of the games that

449
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 2: Donald Trump had made against Joe Biden. Let's start with

450
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,679
Speaker 2: the first one, perhaps the most significant let's put this

451
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:15,719
Speaker 2: up there on the screen. Nate Silver's now election model

452
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 2: shows Kamala Harris with a fifty point five percent chance

453
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 2: of winning the presidential election, with Donald Trump dropping to

454
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 2: forty eight point eight. What's especially amazing is you can

455
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 2: watch the narrowing of the gap there from July twenty ninth,

456
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 2: the day then that Joe Biden drops out of the

457
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:36,119
Speaker 2: race on July thirtieth, and now we see exactly what

458
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 2: has happened since or sorry, since the day that Nate's

459
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,400
Speaker 2: silverturn on his model, and since then July thirtieth, you've

460
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 2: seen the streams the so called blue line and the

461
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 2: red line actually cross. Now, nobody should delude themselves because

462
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,119
Speaker 2: fifty point five is still quite literally a toss up,

463
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 2: and there is still some you know, ninety some days

464
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 2: to go till election day. But a lot of the

465
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 2: movement in that direction should have the Trump campaign really

466
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 2: question their strategy. Now, so far, let's put this up here,

467
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 2: please on the screen.

468
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:04,640
Speaker 3: What we have here.

469
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 2: You know, Kamala Harris has now taken the slight lead

470
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 2: in the RCP five way average. This might actually be

471
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 2: even more significant to me, Crystal, because it shows Kamala

472
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 2: Harris with one point two percent edge in the recent

473
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 2: average of poles. Now, the reason why I say it's

474
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 2: more significant is that OURCP does not do waiting in

475
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:26,160
Speaker 2: their polling average, while five point thirty eight and Nate

476
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 2: Silver's model does. Nate Silver's model takes past performance of

477
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 2: polls and incorporates them, whereas the RCP is the raw

478
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,880
Speaker 2: average perhaps of even junkie polls that are not particularly good.

479
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:38,639
Speaker 3: And so when we even have ras musen.

480
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,679
Speaker 2: For example, let's say a polster generally been favorable to

481
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:43,919
Speaker 2: Trump in the past and perhaps even accurate, you know,

482
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 2: in twenty sixteen, if they're only Trump plus one, and

483
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:48,359
Speaker 2: then you take the average of the others and you

484
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:50,639
Speaker 2: take it together at point two. This is again just

485
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:54,160
Speaker 2: shows up in a toss up territory where previously Donald

486
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 2: Trump just had such a significant advantage in the polls,

487
00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 2: where you know, Republicans already have some two percent edge

488
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 2: in the popular vote whenever it comes to a national

489
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:05,879
Speaker 2: election because of the way that the electoral college works.

490
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 2: But when you take the point too, it erases some

491
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 2: of that previous benefit that you had and lets things

492
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 2: move to the complete margin. Literally day of turnout territory

493
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 2: for deciding the presidential election.

494
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 4: I mean, clearly, where we are today is as toss

495
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 4: up a toss up race could possibly be I saw.

496
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,360
Speaker 1: I think Nate Silver tweeted about this result that if

497
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,439
Speaker 1: you take a performance that's a little better than Hillary

498
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, a little worse than Joe Biden in

499
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, you end up with a true electoral college

500
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 1: toss up, which is what you're looking at in his model,

501
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 1: And I think that probably fits where we are right now.

502
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 4: Now.

503
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,399
Speaker 1: The question is does the trend continue? Is this a

504
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,880
Speaker 1: honeymoon phase for Kamala Harris and she comes back down

505
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 1: to earth. Her skyrocketing favorability has been wild to behold.

506
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: I don't know if you've seen some of the numbers

507
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,119
Speaker 1: among young people in particular, just in terms of how

508
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,640
Speaker 1: they feel abou Kamala Harris herself. The swing has been,

509
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 1: like I'm talking a thirty point swing in terms of

510
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:06,400
Speaker 1: favorability ratings of Kamala Harris among young voters.

511
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 4: So is she able to maintain that?

512
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 1: Does the trend continue where she just continues to gain

513
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 1: ground as Republicans continue to sort of spin their wheels

514
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 1: and failed to make an effective argument, you know, is

515
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 1: she able to with her VP pick and then you

516
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: head into the DNC continue to pick up momentum. I

517
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 1: think those are the real questions for the future in

518
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 1: terms of where this race is headed. But as you said,

519
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 1: Zagernau and should delude themselves. You know, it's because the

520
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:34,159
Speaker 1: polls have moved so quickly. It's easy to feel like

521
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris has a huge edge. Now she does not.

522
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 1: You know, if you look at the battleground pulling, it's

523
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 1: still really really close. In plenty of battleground states. You

524
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 1: still have Trump coming in with a bit of an edge.

525
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 1: I think this race is just about as razor thin

526
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 1: margin as it could possibly be right at the moment.

527
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 1: And the big question is just what's the trajectory from here?

528
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, two months from now, we could say this was

529
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 2: the top. This was as good as it got. She

530
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 2: does a couple interviews is a disaster. On the other hand,

531
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:01,880
Speaker 2: she just continue this. She's getting a free pass. She's

532
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 2: going to get probably a ton of media coverage whenever

533
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 2: it comes to the VP pick. It's been fifteen days,

534
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 2: she hasn't done any interviews. Maybe she can go a

535
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 2: month with no interview, so I could really see it

536
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 2: either way. Let's put this up there on the screen,

537
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:16,359
Speaker 2: CBS News with a very very good poll likely voter

538
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 2: polled nationally from yugov Nationally, you see.

539
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 3: Exactly what we're talking about here.

540
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 2: You have fifty percent national, fifty percent Kamala forty nine

541
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 2: percent Donald Trump. This is a plus or minus two

542
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 2: percent in the margin of error in the battleground states.

543
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:33,120
Speaker 2: They quite literally have it tied at fifty fifty. Let's

544
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 2: go to the next part, please, because this also breaks

545
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:39,160
Speaker 2: down the gender gap choice for president amongst men forty

546
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 2: five percent Kamala Harris fifty four percent Donald Trump. Basically

547
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 2: exactly even fifty four percent there for women, and then

548
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 2: forty five percent for Donald Trump. Not as big of

549
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 2: a gap as previously we have seen in American politics.

550
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 2: If we go to the next part, we again start

551
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 2: to see where the breakdown happens.

552
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 3: Would their policies help women?

553
00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 2: And this is perhaps where I think Kamala has got

554
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 2: the bigest edge, because Harris's policies amongst female registered voters,

555
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 2: they say seventy percent yes, forty three percent yes for

556
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:11,160
Speaker 2: Donald Trump, but with no on Harris's policies only thirty

557
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 2: percent fifty seven percent there So the enthusiasm amongst women voters,

558
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 2: I think is one that we will have to grapple

559
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 2: with if a Kamala does end up winning just because abortion.

560
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 2: Again comes back to Salient's next part. Please and continue

561
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 2: with the demographics. This isn't amongst black registered voters. Would

562
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 2: their policies help black people? Harris's policies is eighty yes,

563
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:35,199
Speaker 2: Trump's policies twenty no no for Harris twenty and eighty

564
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 2: for Donald Trump. So you could see there's a high

565
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:41,919
Speaker 2: level of polarization. Although you know, historically Democrats do win

566
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 2: ninety percent of the Black vote, so if twenty percent

567
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,959
Speaker 2: actually does vote for Donald Trump or says favorable things

568
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 2: about Donald Trump, that actually still would be quite a

569
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 2: historic result if that were to materialize. That's kind of

570
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 2: how I'm looking at those two things. Nonetheless, the comparison

571
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 2: to Joe Biden is the one that really matters, and

572
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 2: the comparison to Joe and Crystal is where she clearly

573
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 2: shines with these suburban women voters on abortion and amongst

574
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:10,199
Speaker 2: black voters, which means a higher edgent turnout. And of

575
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 2: course it all comes down to turnout, as the meme literally.

576
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 1: Says, yeah, that's right, and who prioritizes what Yeah, you know,

577
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: we saw an election in twenty twenty two that people

578
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 1: are very upset about the economy. We're going to talk

579
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 1: later in the show. Economic numbers looking really bad right now,

580
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,639
Speaker 1: taking a turn for the worst. That could be really

581
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 1: a huge drag in Kamala Harris is that becomes more salient,

582
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 1: and Donald Trump continues to have an edge in terms

583
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 1: of his economic policies, so that could be incredibly salient.

584
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 1: You could see abortion rights being incredibly salient. You could

585
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 1: see just you know, vibes like I don't like Donald Trump.

586
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 1: I don't really want to go back to the time

587
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,400
Speaker 1: when he was president. I think in twenty twenty two,

588
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 1: not only abortion but the sense of sort of fringe

589
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 1: extremism were incredibly important to the result. But of course,

590
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 1: Tolan Trump wasn't actually on the ballot in twenty twenty two,

591
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 1: And I think one thing that we've seen is no

592
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,919
Speaker 1: one really pulls off trump Ism except Trump. So it

593
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,400
Speaker 1: is a very different deal when he's on the ballot.

594
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 1: But it's difficult to predict which issue typically say, oh,

595
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 1: it'll be the economics that'll control, but I think it's

596
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:22,719
Speaker 1: going to be more complicated calculus given how much people

597
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 1: have reacted to this sense of their rights being taken away.

598
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 1: And Donald Trump was the guy who put those people

599
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,199
Speaker 1: on the Supreme Court. And it's very clear in the

600
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: numbers about women voters how they feel about how he

601
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 1: would be for women versus how Kamala Harris would be here.

602
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 1: I think her gender is a tremendous asset and the

603
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 1: fact that she has more credibility on the issue not

604
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 1: only just because of her gender, but also because of

605
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 1: her ideological positioning over the years Versus Joe Biden. She

606
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 1: is a much better messenger on that issue than he was.

607
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 1: And I fully expect that whether it's Shapiro or Walls

608
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 1: or Kelly or Sheer or whoever it is, they're also.

609
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 4: Are going to be very effective messengers on this issue too.

610
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, no question.

611
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 2: I mean all Democrats have basically learned how to speak

612
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 2: the language of that. And you know, I think I

613
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 2: said this before. If you go to Jos Shapiro's TikTok account,

614
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 2: basically every single post is just about abortions.

615
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 3: So these people know where their bread is buttered. Politically.

616
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 2: Let's put this last part up here on the screen.

617
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 2: This shows personal finances, and this highlights what you were saying.

618
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 2: If Harris wins, people registered voters say that they would

619
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 2: only twenty five percent think they would be financially better

620
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 2: off forty five percent.

621
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 3: If Donald Trump wins financially worse off.

622
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:31,959
Speaker 2: You actually have forty four percent you say yes for Harris,

623
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 2: thirty eight percent for Donald Trump, and stay about the

624
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 2: same is thirty one percent for Kamala, seventeen percent for

625
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. So clearly there is at least a slight,

626
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 2: you know, plurality of people who believe they're going to

627
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 2: be financially better off if Donald Trump wins. I will

628
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 2: remind everyone that in twenty twenty, the trust on the

629
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 2: economy percentage ended up being far more predictive than any

630
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 2: of the national polling. Donald Trump still continues to show

631
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 2: a major edge whenever it comes to handling of the

632
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 2: economy and this question of financially better off. Now, let's remember,

633
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 2: though the economy was not a predictor of the twenty

634
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 2: twenty two outcome, all economic predictions weighted to poles would

635
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 2: have said that there would have been a large Republican gain.

636
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 2: So this can be overcome when social issues become very

637
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 2: very hot button. But the question is exactly as you said,

638
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 2: what are people going to be feeling on election day?

639
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 2: So we have some signs of a slowing down economy,

640
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 2: of reducing stock market people's retirement, people are going to

641
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 2: start getting jumpy. Now that's a very very different situation

642
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,719
Speaker 2: than where we've been previously, where yes, inflation is horrible

643
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 2: and bad, but it's been more of a slow decline

644
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 2: rather than a rapid one. So if we do have

645
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 2: a rapid downturn in the US economy, I actually do

646
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 2: think the race could significantly shift and perhaps in Donald

647
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 2: Trump's favor. And then finally, if we put this up here,

648
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 2: what we see is the Trump campaign polling analysis though,

649
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 2: is they are now trying to play the quote unskew

650
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 2: the polls game. And basically anytime somebody puts out a

651
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 2: statement like this where the Trump campaign is calling the

652
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 2: CBS poll, you know, a manipulated result and saying that

653
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 2: they're over sampling people. I've seen this game before from Democrats.

654
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 2: I've seen this game before from Republicans. Almost always, whenever

655
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 2: you are trying to point to individual problems in.

656
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 3: Polls, you're just you know, you're playing you're playing the

657
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 3: wrong game.

658
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:20,239
Speaker 2: This is one where it generally reflects you being on

659
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 2: the back foot, and when you're on the back foot,

660
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 2: that's just not a good place to be with respect

661
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 2: to the national media and generally in terms of your

662
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 2: campaign messaging. So clearly, as we showed in the economy

663
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 2: and even the brief, we didn't have time necessarily to

664
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,239
Speaker 2: go through the border numbers. But on both of those

665
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 2: two issues, immigration in the economy, that's what you should

666
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 2: be putting out press releases.

667
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 3: That's all you should really be talking about.

668
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 2: And if you can't win on that, I don't really

669
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 2: know what to tell you because clearly it's such a

670
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 2: huge edge with that, right Crystal.

671
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, here's here's what I would say about the

672
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 1: unskew the polls thing. It brings back Mitt Romney in

673
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 1: twenty twelve. That was that was sort of the original unskew.

674
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 1: There was actually an unskew the Poles website, and that

675
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 1: guy was on box News all over the place, and

676
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 1: people really bought it. And you know, the right was

677
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: the Republicans were absolutely shocked to the point of your

678
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 1: the famous moment on with Megan Kelly on Fox News

679
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 1: where she was having to talk them down from the you.

680
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 4: Know, Ohio was not lost. It's not lost. You's like,

681
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 4: I think it's lost.

682
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 1: You know, these are fake numbers that you're trying to

683
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 1: pull together. And then Joe Biden just recently total denial,

684
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 1: you know, kept in this little coseted bubble, told by

685
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 1: his advisor Donalin that oh, no, your numbers are great, sir,

686
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 1: and not letting any contrary information in. And oh if

687
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 1: there are polls that show you down, those poles are wrong,

688
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 1: they're lying. That's not true. It's you know, of course

689
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 1: you're a wonderful, great leader who could vote against you,

690
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. No, these were not winning campaigns.

691
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 1: Joe Biden was headed to a massive, massive defeat. And

692
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 1: so it's not a good sign for the Trump people

693
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 1: that they're out there doing the unskewed the polls thing.

694
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 1: The last thing I'll say with regard to the entire

695
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 1: electoral picture, though Sager, is one thing we haven't talked about,

696
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 1: which we are about to talk about with doctor Trija Parsi,

697
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 1: is the threat of a massive or in the Middle

698
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 1: East that we would be deeply entangled in and so

699
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 1: while you know, foreign policy rarely is the number one

700
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 1: deciding factor at a time when we could be you know,

701
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 1: facing direct threats to our troops and insane chaos and

702
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 1: continued horror in the Middle East, but on a much

703
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 1: broader scale that could end up being incredibly salient in

704
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 1: a way that you know is difficult to anticipate. So

705
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 1: given that you have an economy that's clearly on the

706
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 1: brink and some really dire signs there that you have

707
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 1: in the entire region of the world with nuclear armed

708
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 1: powers that is on the brink, there's a lot of

709
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 1: potential terrifying dangers. And in terms specifically of the political

710
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 1: horse race, which of course the least important point here,

711
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 1: but in terms of the political horse race, a lot

712
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 1: of fraught danger for Kamala Harris ahead.

713
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 4: So I know they're feeling good right now. They should

714
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 4: be feeling good about where the Poles are.

715
00:33:57,000 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 1: Versus they were just sort of like locked into to

716
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 1: defeat in November when it was the Biden ticket. Now

717
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 1: they've got a shot, but there are a lot a

718
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 1: lot of risk.

719
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:07,280
Speaker 2: For them on that, and they're also in a very

720
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 2: bad position on that because they're not in charge. Joe

721
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,840
Speaker 2: Biden is in charge. But not only is he literally ailing,

722
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 2: you know, and fading before all of our eyes, he's

723
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 2: also ideologically committed to us, to the defense of Israel

724
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 2: and to a potentially massive war in the Middle East,

725
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 2: while also being incredibly weak and not being able to

726
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 2: bring any of the powers to bear both the Israelis,

727
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 2: the Iranians, the Jordanians, and others. So we have a

728
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 2: power vacuum in the Middle East, which is the worst

729
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 2: possible place you could be in.

730
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 3: So in some sense, you're totally right.

731
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 2: I mean, if you have hundreds of US troops that

732
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 2: are killed months before the election, that's a totally different situation,

733
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,360
Speaker 2: not to mention tens of thousands in the Middle East,

734
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 2: rockets going all over the place, and who even knows

735
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:50,280
Speaker 2: what the hell would be going on. Donald Trump showing

736
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 2: us some old twenty twenty ways and how he certainly

737
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 2: is being as normal for him as possible, returning to

738
00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 2: the state of Georgia and deciding to attack Brian Kemp,

739
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 2: the popular GOP governor who he tried to defeat unsuccessfully

740
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:07,880
Speaker 2: in the primary in twenty twenty two. Let's take a

741
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:09,720
Speaker 2: listen to what he had to say about the state's

742
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 2: popular governor.

743
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:14,760
Speaker 7: Kemp doesn't want to end it because he's a bad guy.

744
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 7: He's a disloyal guy, and he's a very average governor.

745
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 7: Little Brian, Little Brian camp bad guy. But think of it.

746
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 4: I got this guy.

747
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:25,839
Speaker 3: Just think and then that's it.

748
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:27,880
Speaker 4: I got this guy nominated.

749
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 7: I then got him elected. Without me, he doesn't get

750
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 7: nominated and he doesn't get elected. He had no chance

751
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 7: of winning either one and all he had to do

752
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 7: is sign something where the Senate would like to look

753
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 7: at election integrity. This is an honest man. That's an

754
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,880
Speaker 7: honest man. They were all honest. They were looking at

755
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:53,919
Speaker 7: something very legitimate, and this bad guy said, I'm sorry.

756
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 6: Sir, I can't do it.

757
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 7: I called him and I said, Brian, they're looking at

758
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 7: election integrity.

759
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 6: Is there anything you could do.

760
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 7: I'm sorry, sir, I can't get involved in that. I said,

761
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,839
Speaker 7: but Brian, you don't understand. This is a good thing,

762
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 7: not a bad thing. I'm sure, sir, I can't get involved.

763
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:14,840
Speaker 7: I've had you up to here, Brian, I've had you

764
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 7: up to here. He's a bad guy and he's not

765
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 7: doing this country a good service.

766
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,799
Speaker 2: Hoof All right, well, Donald Trump certainly back right back

767
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 2: to his old ways.

768
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:28,280
Speaker 3: It certainly hasn't been changed by anything.

769
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 2: And just sticking with the sheer electoral consequences of this, imagine,

770
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 2: in October twenty twenty, I tell you there will be

771
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:39,799
Speaker 2: two Democrats who will represent state of Georgia in the

772
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 2: United States Senate. There will be a primary challenge backed

773
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 2: by Donald Trump against two GOP officials, and all of

774
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 2: those not only will the Democrats win, but then those

775
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 2: Republicans who stood up to Trump will actually have an

776
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 2: electoral advantage at the ballot box in Georgia, which we

777
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 2: previously thought of all as a red state. Oh and

778
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,360
Speaker 2: Joe Biden actually won that state in twenty twenty. So

779
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 2: it's very clear that this is an electoral massive loser

780
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 2: in the state of Georgia, regardless of whether Trump believes

781
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 2: it or not. And as we all learned at the

782
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 2: ballot box with Brian Kemp and Brad Raffinsberger, the Secretary

783
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:16,799
Speaker 2: of State, Republican voters, yes, Republican voters did not even

784
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 2: care as much about these issues because Kemp defeated what

785
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:22,759
Speaker 2: was his name, David Perdue, the former Senator by the

786
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:25,800
Speaker 2: way with huge name recognition by some seventy percent margin.

787
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 2: He went down massively and Brad Raffinsberger won as well,

788
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 2: which people were even shocked by. So at this point,

789
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 2: Donald Trump clearly is consumed by his own petty grievances

790
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 2: about personal loyalty and is very willing to risk a

791
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 2: margin in a state where maybe under Joe Biden he

792
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 2: could get away with this, but under Kamala Harris and

793
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 2: with the tolls where they are right now only two

794
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 2: percent plus advantage in the state of Georgia, shouldn't be

795
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 2: messing around. This is Trump really at his worst.

796
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 1: Brian Kemp, I just looked it up, has a sixty

797
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 1: three percent approval rating in the state of Georgia.

798
00:37:58,920 --> 00:37:59,359
Speaker 3: That's crazy.

799
00:37:59,360 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 4: He's very popular.

800
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 1: He's way more popular than Donald Trump is in the

801
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:05,480
Speaker 1: same of Georgia. Is just like not even close. And

802
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 1: you know, part of this is something said Jelani's been

803
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 1: tweeting about who I believe it lives. He's from Georgia.

804
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 1: I think he lives in Georgia again, right, Yeah, he's

805
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,320
Speaker 1: been tweeting about the fact. I mean Kemp has governed

806
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 1: very conservatively. You know, he's very much in line with like,

807
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:21,760
Speaker 1: you know, the Trump direction of the party in terms

808
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:26,359
Speaker 1: of his ideology. But because he's seen as being oppositional

809
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:28,359
Speaker 1: to Trump, that has actually given him a lot of

810
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 1: credibility with moderate voters in spite of his pretty hard

811
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:36,239
Speaker 1: right ideological leaning, which just is a long way of saying,

812
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:38,480
Speaker 1: so much of our politics is just about like vibes

813
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:41,359
Speaker 1: and how you feel about the singular figure of Donald Trump,

814
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 1: and that is certainly the case here. But I also

815
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 1: felt like watching this all unfold, you know, sometimes you

816
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 1: give trump weigh too much credit.

817
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 4: We always think he's doing some forty chess move.

818
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:55,919
Speaker 1: There is no universe in which this makes any sense electorally,

819
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 1: where is anything other than shooting yourself in the foot electorally.

820
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 1: This last time in Georgia, Sager, we talked about this

821
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 1: so much because he casts so much doubt on mail

822
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 1: in ballots. He lost out on Republican votes in the

823
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 1: state of Georgia because they weren't able to bank those

824
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 1: mail in ballots ahead of time, and that alone was

825
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 1: probably responsible for that thin margin that he lost by

826
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 1: in the state of Georgia. So it wouldn't be the

827
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 1: first time that he shot himself in the foot and

828
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 1: undermined his own electoral chances in a critical now swing state.

829
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 1: So it's just like it reminds you how foolish this

830
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 1: man can be, and how sometimes he's just preternaturally gifted

831
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 1: in terms of sensing a political moment and political opportunity,

832
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 1: and sometimes he is the dumbest person politically on the

833
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 1: face of the planet.

834
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 2: I think Donald Trump is like the most high variant

835
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 2: person's ever assistant. When he's good, he's great, and when

836
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 2: he's bad, he's so horrible, and you just never know

837
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 2: what you're going to get. This is also testament to

838
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:55,279
Speaker 2: the fact that sometimes you want a more middle of

839
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 2: the road person whenever you have this slight advantage, because

840
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 2: you want to make things a little bit less more predictable,

841
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,800
Speaker 2: and you want to run on the fundamentals, which a

842
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 2: lot of the American people actually do say that they

843
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 2: want out of politics now that they're generally exhausted in

844
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:12,439
Speaker 2: this political moment. Nonetheless, you do still have the maga base,

845
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:14,800
Speaker 2: who very much is with him. But the real lesson

846
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 2: of twenty twenty two is that the base can only

847
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 2: get you so far, even in Republican primaries, and that

848
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,240
Speaker 2: the base and its own predilections can be so repellent

849
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 2: to the general public whenever it's backed up by something

850
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 2: like stop the Steal, that many people will put their

851
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:32,239
Speaker 2: own economic concerns aside and they will come out specifically

852
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 2: to vote against you. You see this in the problems

853
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 2: with Kerry Lake in Arizona, where she continues to trail

854
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 2: a lot of the MAGA candidates that lost in twenty

855
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 2: twenty two. And it is a significant electoral problem in

856
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,719
Speaker 2: a race where you have it very very tight, and

857
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 2: in a state like Georgia where you have massive influx

858
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 2: of the suburban voters from all across the country. I mean,

859
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 2: Atlanta is booming open for business. Part of the reason

860
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:59,800
Speaker 2: Brian Kemp is so popular. You have a major population influx.

861
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 2: All the fundamentals are there for a huge change and

862
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:06,319
Speaker 2: takeover in the state's economy. But you know, and they

863
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:08,440
Speaker 2: would be very willing to vote for a normal Republican

864
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 2: like Brian Kemp, as we have seen, you know, in

865
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 2: his electoral tally. The problem for Trump is that he

866
00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:16,879
Speaker 2: actually single handedly makes it a toss up. And let's

867
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:18,799
Speaker 2: put this up there on the screen too. You just

868
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 2: don't want this going into the election. You have Brian

869
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 2: Kemp here responding to Trump's truth. Keep this up because

870
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 2: I'm gonna read Trump put out a true social post.

871
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 2: He says. Brad Raflisberger has to do his job make

872
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 2: sure this election is not stolen. Brian Kemp should focus

873
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 2: his efforts on fighting crime, not fighting unity in the

874
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 2: Republican Party. His crime rate is terrible as crime right

875
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 2: Atlanta is the worst, his economy is average. He's just

876
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 2: making unity, not retribution, especially against the man that got

877
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:46,319
Speaker 2: him the nomination through endorsement and without whom he never

878
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:47,799
Speaker 2: would have beaten Stacy Abrams.

879
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 3: He and his wife don't even think he could win.

880
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 3: I said, I'm telling you you're going.

881
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 2: He goes on to a story about Brian Kemp's wife

882
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 2: how she won't endorse him. He says, well, I don't

883
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 2: want her endorsement. I don't want this. They're the ones

884
00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:59,279
Speaker 2: who got Fanny Willis and her boyfriend all jazzed up

885
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 2: and ready to go. So he could have ended that

886
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 2: travesty with a phone call, but he doesn't want to

887
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 2: end it because he's a bad guy. So that's both

888
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,800
Speaker 2: about Brad Raffensberger and Brian Kemp. Kemp response my focus

889
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 2: is on winning this November and saving our country from

890
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris and the Democrats, not engaging in pettyant personal insults,

891
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:17,320
Speaker 2: attacking fellow Republicans or dwelling on the pass. You should

892
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:19,799
Speaker 2: do the same, mister President, and leave my family out

893
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:21,720
Speaker 2: of it. And I can just tell you very clearly

894
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 2: that all the evidence says that Brian's message there is

895
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 2: ten times more popular than Donald Trump.

896
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:28,720
Speaker 3: So this really is the worst of Trump.

897
00:42:28,760 --> 00:42:31,240
Speaker 2: And it also shows you Everyone always talks about discipline,

898
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 2: et cetera. I think Trump has been around long enough

899
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 2: now at this point that there is no such thing

900
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 2: as the discipline Trump. I think Trump is still having

901
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:42,160
Speaker 2: a very difficult time adjusting to Kamala in the race.

902
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 3: And psychologically I can understand it.

903
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 2: You had so much confidence that you were going to win,

904
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:49,280
Speaker 2: You had the coach, you know, you had the wins

905
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:51,240
Speaker 2: that you're back in a way. For almost two years

906
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 2: now that he has been in the race, since he

907
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 2: launched it, you've had some setbacks where you were relatively confident,

908
00:42:57,040 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 2: and then the span of just two weeks everything has changed.

909
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 2: And he's always had difficulty calibrating changing his message and

910
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 2: more and given the you know, in sheer insanity of

911
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 2: the last month or so in American politics, it is understandable.

912
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 2: That doesn't make it any less toxic at the ballot

913
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:13,239
Speaker 2: box for him.

914
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it smells desperate.

915
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 1: I mean, it just seems like he is completely sort

916
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:21,839
Speaker 1: of melting down and has lost his sense of what

917
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:23,360
Speaker 1: to do in this race and how to do it,

918
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 1: and it's just randomly lashing out.

919
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 3: I totally agree with you.

920
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 2: All Right, Well, we got treat to Parsi standby talk

921
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:31,800
Speaker 2: about the situation Iran.

922
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 3: Let's get to it.

923
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 1: As we've been discussing in the week of multiple assassinations

924
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 1: conducted across the region by Israel, we are now on

925
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 1: the brink of a very dangerous escalation. Everyone sort of

926
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 1: waiting to see what Iran is going to do in response.

927
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,760
Speaker 1: So as we await that, we're bringing in doctor Treta

928
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 1: Parsi from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Staycraft to tell

929
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,320
Speaker 1: us where we are and where we could be headed.

930
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 1: Great to see again, doctor, Good see sir, Thanks for

931
00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 1: having me. Yeah, of course, let's go ahead and put

932
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 1: this first ol up on the screen that just sort

933
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 1: of summarizes everything. This is from journalist Joyce karm She

934
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,200
Speaker 1: says update Iran a tax singe as early as Monday,

935
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 1: US forces arriving in the region, Sentcom Chief Israel tomorrow.

936
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:16,400
Speaker 4: Per Barack Revid, Israel says plans in place for nationals

937
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:20,240
Speaker 4: leaving Lebanon, has an allies coordinate response strikes in Gaza

938
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 4: with these target ships. That's sort of the top line

939
00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:25,839
Speaker 4: of where we're at. Just give us a sense of

940
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:28,200
Speaker 4: how we got here and what you expect.

941
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:35,160
Speaker 6: We've spoken about this numerous times that the Israelis, particularly

942
00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 6: in the Prime Minister Nataniel who has three years tried

943
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 6: to push the United States to go to war with

944
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 6: Iran and choosing to assassinate Haniya during the inauguration of

945
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 6: kozshki On, the new Iranian president, in Tehran, whereas Israelis

946
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,440
Speaker 6: clearly had the ability to do so while he was

947
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 6: in Doha since he lives there is a clear indication

948
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 6: that they were trying to do something that would be

949
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 6: as escalatory as possible. The question is will the Iranians

950
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:07,399
Speaker 6: now walk into that trap? And the signal that they're

951
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 6: sending is that they will retaliate and that if the

952
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 6: Israelis respond, then they will continue it and they've essentially

953
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:18,839
Speaker 6: told foreign diplomats that they have a right to retaliate

954
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,880
Speaker 6: if it leads to a war. Essentially it's on Israel,

955
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:25,360
Speaker 6: not on Yvon. In some ways, the Iranians have trapped

956
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:28,319
Speaker 6: themselves in an escalatory cycle. They took a lot of

957
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:31,760
Speaker 6: absorbed a lot of hits from Israel over the years,

958
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 6: numerous scientists that were assassinated, the head of the Yvoni

959
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 6: nuclear program was assassinated. The Iranians did not retaliate openly

960
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:45,360
Speaker 6: after the attack against the Iranian embassy, and Syria decided

961
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 6: to do so. And as a result, now after this

962
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:53,200
Speaker 6: assassination that is not necessarily worse, much worse than previous assassinations,

963
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 6: they're in a corner in which they have to, in

964
00:45:56,120 --> 00:46:00,400
Speaker 6: their view, retaliate, otherwise their efforts to restore the turrens

965
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:05,120
Speaker 6: has completely collapsed and failed, which is again part of

966
00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 6: the risk of retaliating in the first place. You put

967
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:10,960
Speaker 6: yourself in a position in which you constantly have to

968
00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 6: respond if the Israelis are not deterred, which in this

969
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:16,799
Speaker 6: case clearly they've chosen that they're not right.

970
00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 2: So, doctor Parsi, what we've learned is that there was

971
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:22,760
Speaker 2: a meeting in which apparently the Iranians told the Arab

972
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 2: the Golf Arab states, they said, we don't care, you

973
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:27,439
Speaker 2: know if this does lead to war. Now, how much

974
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 2: of this is bravado? How much of it is reality?

975
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:34,040
Speaker 2: And what are the political constraints within the regime itself

976
00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:36,359
Speaker 2: that might drive their decision makings in the next twenty

977
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 2: four hours.

978
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:40,279
Speaker 6: I think much of that is bravado. I think the

979
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:44,320
Speaker 6: Iranians are going to respond in such a way that

980
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 6: it minimizes the likelihood that it will lead to a

981
00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 6: significant escalation and a war, but still it will be

982
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 6: more than what we saw in April. And April they

983
00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 6: went out of their ways to avoid any casualties on

984
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:01,759
Speaker 6: the Israelis sides. That's not likely going to be the

985
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 6: case this time around. I think they will actually try

986
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:07,799
Speaker 6: to draw blood this time around as a way of

987
00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:12,080
Speaker 6: restoring that the terrence sort of saying, the risk obviously

988
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 6: is that you have a prime minister in Israel than

989
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:17,200
Speaker 6: actually once escalation, and as a result, will use that

990
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 6: as an opportunity to be able to escalate further. And

991
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:22,239
Speaker 6: I think is in that regard that the Iranians are

992
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 6: saying they don't care if it goes in that direction.

993
00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 6: I think they do, but I don't think that they

994
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 6: will abide by what appears to have been American messages

995
00:47:31,680 --> 00:47:34,960
Speaker 6: to Tehran of what the US would consider to be

996
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 6: acceptable response from Yvon. I think the Iranians are likely

997
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 6: going to go quite a bit beyond that, but perhaps

998
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 6: not so far that it will give the Israelis a

999
00:47:45,239 --> 00:47:48,920
Speaker 6: very clear justification for further escalation.

1000
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:53,200
Speaker 1: So the US EXU defense mainly jumped out and said,

1001
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 1: you know, the US will have Israel's back. We are

1002
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:57,799
Speaker 1: now getting we can put this next element up on

1003
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:00,919
Speaker 1: the screen. The empteenth version of the is having tough

1004
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:04,320
Speaker 1: conversations and is really mad at bb Netnaho. Behind the scenes,

1005
00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:07,279
Speaker 1: Biden realized that Netnahu was lying to him about the

1006
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:11,160
Speaker 1: hostages her rets. He's not saying it publicly yet, but

1007
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 1: in the meeting between them, he specifically told Bebe stop

1008
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:14,960
Speaker 1: bullshitting me.

1009
00:48:16,080 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 4: So that's the leaks that.

1010
00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 1: Are coming out of the latest meetings, you know, just

1011
00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:22,640
Speaker 1: reflects a little bit on that, and also how the

1012
00:48:22,680 --> 00:48:25,640
Speaker 1: calculus may have changed for Bebe, given that Biden is

1013
00:48:25,680 --> 00:48:28,359
Speaker 1: now a lame duck and Kamala Harris is the top

1014
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:29,400
Speaker 1: of the Democratic ticket.

1015
00:48:30,680 --> 00:48:33,160
Speaker 6: I think the White House's efforts to try to signal

1016
00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 6: that they actually are tough with Natagno leaves them in

1017
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:40,400
Speaker 6: a position in which they're portraying themselves as quite pathetic.

1018
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 6: They're trying to say that we are being tough by

1019
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:48,200
Speaker 6: leaking this information about what is being said behind the scenes,

1020
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:51,400
Speaker 6: But reality is that if that is actually what is

1021
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:56,320
Speaker 6: being said and NATO is not responding, it clearly shows

1022
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 6: that Biden is choosing not to use the actual leverage

1023
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 6: he has, which is to actually stop the arms supplies

1024
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:06,640
Speaker 6: to his role, and as a result, Nataniello was absolutely

1025
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 6: no reasons to listen to Biden or take his threats

1026
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:13,319
Speaker 6: or his harsh words in these mythological conversations behind the

1027
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:17,399
Speaker 6: scene particularly seriously. And this is part of the reason

1028
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:19,799
Speaker 6: why we are in this situation now. We would not

1029
00:49:19,880 --> 00:49:22,640
Speaker 6: be in the situation if Biden actually had used America's

1030
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 6: leverage from the outset, he could have forced a ceasefire

1031
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:28,799
Speaker 6: much earlier on. He chose not to, and even in

1032
00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:31,600
Speaker 6: April when he actually for the first time did use

1033
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 6: some leverage against Israelis and prevented them from escalating further. Nevertheless,

1034
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:40,959
Speaker 6: it wasn't successful. Because here we are two three months

1035
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:44,440
Speaker 6: later and Natanyahu did something even more provocative than he

1036
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 6: did when he bombed the Iran in embassy consular section

1037
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:50,800
Speaker 6: of the embassy in Damascus. It clearly shows that Biden's

1038
00:49:50,840 --> 00:49:55,279
Speaker 6: strategy of never actually being tough with these Raelis has

1039
00:49:55,320 --> 00:50:00,479
Speaker 6: been a complete disaster for US national interests because this war,

1040
00:50:00,640 --> 00:50:03,359
Speaker 6: if it breaks out in that large format, very likely

1041
00:50:03,400 --> 00:50:06,400
Speaker 6: will drag the United States into another war. And I

1042
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:09,520
Speaker 6: think Natania who came back from Washington after being here

1043
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:13,239
Speaker 6: last week, realizing that the White House was quite a

1044
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 6: bit in a disarray as a result of Biden not

1045
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 6: really happily advocating the ticket, and as a result saw

1046
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 6: an opportunity to escalate dramatically and buy that force a

1047
00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:31,279
Speaker 6: conflict and a crisis on the next president of the

1048
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:33,440
Speaker 6: United States, whether it is Trump or whether it is

1049
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 6: Kamala Harris.

1050
00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, doctor Parsi, how does has Bola factor into this?

1051
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:40,799
Speaker 2: So there's of course an Iranian response, But there are

1052
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 2: also Iranian allies like Hesbola and others. They themselves are

1053
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:49,320
Speaker 2: on the brink of a war. We have diplomatic nightmare

1054
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 2: right now with Lebanon. All US citizens being urged to leave,

1055
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 2: there's canceled flights, everybody is bracing. So even if there

1056
00:50:56,640 --> 00:51:00,719
Speaker 2: is a quote unquote like tempered response from the Iranian directly,

1057
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:04,840
Speaker 2: what still holds on the front between Israel and Hezbolah.

1058
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,120
Speaker 6: So, I think it's a very important question you asked,

1059
00:51:08,120 --> 00:51:11,319
Speaker 6: and I think it's important to bear in mind that

1060
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:17,400
Speaker 6: when the Israelis took out the head of Hamas in Tehran,

1061
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 6: that happened just hours or days after they had taken

1062
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,839
Speaker 6: out the number two in Hezbola in Lebanon, and the

1063
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:29,520
Speaker 6: world was bracing itself for a potential escalation between Hezbola

1064
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 6: and Israel. And in that moment where everyone was hoping

1065
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 6: that there would be de escalation, the Israelis decided to

1066
00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:40,240
Speaker 6: kill Haniya in Tehran, clearly indicating that their desire actually

1067
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:44,520
Speaker 6: is to escalate and bring about some larger war. If

1068
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:46,400
Speaker 6: there is an attack, and I think there's an extremely

1069
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:49,520
Speaker 6: highlightly that Iranians will respond, it will likely be a

1070
00:51:49,600 --> 00:51:54,840
Speaker 6: coordinative response from Hezbola, Iran Iraqi Siri militious as well

1071
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:58,719
Speaker 6: as the huties in Yemen. Part of the risk of

1072
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:01,879
Speaker 6: that is that some of these elements are far more

1073
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:05,400
Speaker 6: eager to actually move towards a larger war than the

1074
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:08,240
Speaker 6: Vanyans are. The Yvonians have been very calibrating and cautious.

1075
00:52:08,280 --> 00:52:11,239
Speaker 6: They've have plenty of opportunities to escalate they chosen not to.

1076
00:52:11,920 --> 00:52:15,080
Speaker 6: But the UTIs, for instance, have a very different calculation.

1077
00:52:15,280 --> 00:52:18,200
Speaker 6: They have publicly complained that the Vanians are trying to

1078
00:52:18,239 --> 00:52:20,680
Speaker 6: hold them back. Some of the Irakian and Syrian malicious

1079
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:24,520
Speaker 6: have also complained about the unhappiness of yvon trying to

1080
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:27,640
Speaker 6: restrain them. So if we end up in this larger

1081
00:52:27,680 --> 00:52:30,280
Speaker 6: war and at some point there is a serious effort

1082
00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:33,919
Speaker 6: to de escalate, the question is will there be discipline

1083
00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 6: within the ranks of these different groups that are aligned

1084
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 6: with Yvan to actually go along with such a de escalation,

1085
00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:43,399
Speaker 6: or will we have a very chaotic situation in which

1086
00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:45,480
Speaker 6: some of them may be willing to de escalate than

1087
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:47,400
Speaker 6: others will not. Then, as a result, we may not

1088
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 6: get the actual de escalation that may be desired in

1089
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:53,640
Speaker 6: certain parts. So this is a very significant risk now

1090
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:57,920
Speaker 6: as a result of this major deliberate escalation that that

1091
00:52:58,040 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 6: Tanyahu was brought.

1092
00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:03,279
Speaker 1: About doctor Parson in that same article where you know

1093
00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:07,120
Speaker 1: an aid is leaking that Biden told bb this is bullshit,

1094
00:53:07,200 --> 00:53:09,759
Speaker 1: and he realized finally that Bibe was.

1095
00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 4: Lying about the hostages.

1096
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:14,879
Speaker 1: It's obviously long been clear that bib netna in ten

1097
00:53:14,960 --> 00:53:19,040
Speaker 1: months apparently right, Yeah, I mean, it's just preposterous. But

1098
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:21,920
Speaker 1: in that same article, this official says the US is

1099
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:23,880
Speaker 1: preparing to help Israel in the face of Iran and

1100
00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:27,400
Speaker 1: Hesbela's response. However, they made it clear there would be

1101
00:53:27,440 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 1: no American backing for moves that would further expand the

1102
00:53:30,640 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 1: scope of the conflict. Do you give that any credence

1103
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:36,719
Speaker 1: because it is very hard for me to believe that

1104
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:40,200
Speaker 1: we would actually, you know, allow Israel to face Iran

1105
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:43,879
Speaker 1: Hasbela alone, that we wouldn't once again jump to their rescue.

1106
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 6: Well, this is what Biden said last time as well,

1107
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:49,239
Speaker 6: you know, we'll come in and defend you this time,

1108
00:53:49,280 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 6: but don't escalate further. And guess what. Two pro months later,

1109
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 6: Ntaia escalated dramatically and much further than he did the

1110
00:53:55,640 --> 00:53:59,360
Speaker 6: first time around. As long as Biden constantly comes to

1111
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:03,799
Speaker 6: Tannaho's aid, despite all of these leaked stories about being

1112
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:07,279
Speaker 6: angry behind the scenes, the reality is he's given Natanyahu

1113
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:11,160
Speaker 6: a blank check or he has been so weak in

1114
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:14,400
Speaker 6: his response that Nataiah, who is treating it as if

1115
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 6: he's got in a blank check from Biden to come

1116
00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:19,319
Speaker 6: now and say we will help you this time, but

1117
00:54:19,360 --> 00:54:22,080
Speaker 6: don't escalate further. Well, that's exactly what was said three

1118
00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:25,279
Speaker 6: months ago. And here we are at some point either

1119
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:28,040
Speaker 6: by the needs to put down his foot, use the

1120
00:54:28,120 --> 00:54:29,840
Speaker 6: leverage that he has to put a stock to this,

1121
00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:32,440
Speaker 6: or he's going to be responsible for the United States

1122
00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:35,640
Speaker 6: getting dragged into yet another disastrous for in the Middle East.

1123
00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:38,840
Speaker 2: Yes, and doctor Parson, the US posture right now is

1124
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:40,960
Speaker 2: one that is signaling more. We have the Carrier Strike

1125
00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:44,719
Speaker 2: Group there, we have several thousand US service members that

1126
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:49,120
Speaker 2: are already in the region. Previously we had seen Obviously

1127
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:52,160
Speaker 2: we dedicated enormous resource to the United States, Great Britain,

1128
00:54:52,200 --> 00:54:56,799
Speaker 2: Jordan and others. And so if there is some sort

1129
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:59,440
Speaker 2: of bigger conflagration, do you have any doubt that the

1130
00:54:59,520 --> 00:55:00,960
Speaker 2: US would get involved here?

1131
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 6: I absolutely know that that the United States will be

1132
00:55:04,719 --> 00:55:06,880
Speaker 6: doing exactly what it did last time in terms of

1133
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:11,279
Speaker 6: shooting down Iranian missiles, etc. The question is will the

1134
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:14,359
Speaker 6: US go beyond that, Will it use fighter jist, will

1135
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:18,920
Speaker 6: it use other things to start directly targeting, whether it

1136
00:55:19,040 --> 00:55:24,280
Speaker 6: is Iraqi Militia's Hezbola or even Yvonne itself. At this point,

1137
00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:27,440
Speaker 6: I find that not very likely, at least in the

1138
00:55:27,480 --> 00:55:30,479
Speaker 6: early stages of this. However, the way this may play

1139
00:55:30,480 --> 00:55:33,279
Speaker 6: out is that the Ivanians strike is Roll together with

1140
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:36,279
Speaker 6: some of these other groups. It will cause damage, it

1141
00:55:36,280 --> 00:55:38,879
Speaker 6: will cause casualties, and then the question is what will

1142
00:55:38,960 --> 00:55:42,279
Speaker 6: Israel's response be. If the Israelis then respond, and if

1143
00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:46,719
Speaker 6: they respond particularly disproportionately, the message yvon has sense is

1144
00:55:46,719 --> 00:55:50,400
Speaker 6: that they're ready for numerous waves of attacks against Israel.

1145
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:55,800
Speaker 6: Under those circumstances, particularly if Israel is taking very significant hits,

1146
00:55:56,000 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 6: I find it unlikely that the bid the administration in particular,

1147
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:04,440
Speaker 6: will be able to resist the pressure to get directly

1148
00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:06,640
Speaker 6: involved in that war. And that's when the United States

1149
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:07,640
Speaker 6: will be at full skill.

1150
00:56:08,120 --> 00:56:11,440
Speaker 1: Doctor PARSI always invaluable to have your insights, especially in

1151
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:13,080
Speaker 1: such an important and fraught time.

1152
00:56:13,160 --> 00:56:14,880
Speaker 4: So thank you so much for your time this morning.

1153
00:56:15,080 --> 00:56:16,799
Speaker 6: Thanks sir, thank you so much for having me.

1154
00:56:17,280 --> 00:56:17,960
Speaker 4: It's our pleasure.

1155
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:23,440
Speaker 2: Let's turn now to the very troubling news with the

1156
00:56:23,560 --> 00:56:26,160
Speaker 2: US economy and global economy and put this up there

1157
00:56:26,160 --> 00:56:29,400
Speaker 2: on the screen just breaking out this morning. Markets around

1158
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:33,960
Speaker 2: the world are having a massive slowdown after two significant

1159
00:56:33,960 --> 00:56:36,879
Speaker 2: events here in the United States, a very disappointing unemployment

1160
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:40,960
Speaker 2: report which showed unemployment rising and the Federal Reserve deciding

1161
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:44,000
Speaker 2: not to cut rates. Both of those twin fears have

1162
00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:47,920
Speaker 2: triggered a massive sell off in the Japanese market, with

1163
00:56:48,120 --> 00:56:51,920
Speaker 2: the largest single day drop in the nicky since nineteen

1164
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:57,440
Speaker 2: eighty seven following US data and also significantly changing their

1165
00:56:57,440 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 2: own policy with respect to their currency end. This simultaneously

1166
00:57:01,760 --> 00:57:05,280
Speaker 2: came on the heels of a big slowdown in tech stocks,

1167
00:57:05,360 --> 00:57:09,400
Speaker 2: fears that the AI craze may itself have been a bubble,

1168
00:57:09,480 --> 00:57:12,319
Speaker 2: and a significant change in the way that people are

1169
00:57:12,320 --> 00:57:15,719
Speaker 2: looking at the fundamentals of the US economy. Let's put

1170
00:57:15,760 --> 00:57:18,560
Speaker 2: the next one, please up there on the screen. This

1171
00:57:18,800 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 2: was the original event which triggered some of the initial

1172
00:57:21,840 --> 00:57:25,280
Speaker 2: sell off, which is now extending into Monday. US hiring

1173
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:29,680
Speaker 2: falling sharply in July, quote unexpected setback for the economy

1174
00:57:29,720 --> 00:57:32,920
Speaker 2: and stoking recession fears. Now, there's been a lot of

1175
00:57:32,920 --> 00:57:35,840
Speaker 2: debate around recession, whether we're in one or not now

1176
00:57:35,880 --> 00:57:38,120
Speaker 2: for almost two and a half years or so, but

1177
00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:41,040
Speaker 2: all of it is indicative of two separate things, which is,

1178
00:57:41,280 --> 00:57:44,840
Speaker 2: we've had the inflation the problem which the Federal Reserve

1179
00:57:44,920 --> 00:57:49,120
Speaker 2: has responded to by increasing or keeping high interest rates

1180
00:57:49,200 --> 00:57:52,600
Speaker 2: relative to where they were previously, and then debates around

1181
00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:54,880
Speaker 2: whether they are putting their boot too far on the

1182
00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 2: neck of the US economy and preventing it from quote

1183
00:57:57,600 --> 00:58:01,600
Speaker 2: unquote running hot. The fear amongstock markets and consumers and

1184
00:58:01,680 --> 00:58:05,040
Speaker 2: everywhere else businesses, small businesses up to large businesses is

1185
00:58:05,080 --> 00:58:07,440
Speaker 2: that they buy their refusal to cut rates as some

1186
00:58:07,560 --> 00:58:11,240
Speaker 2: European countries have now decided to do. They have actually

1187
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 2: waited now too long and simultaneously put pressure on an

1188
00:58:14,920 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 2: economy which itself is itself facing.

1189
00:58:17,360 --> 00:58:19,080
Speaker 3: Pressure from that unemployment.

1190
00:58:19,120 --> 00:58:21,320
Speaker 2: And then, of course, because we are the pre eminent

1191
00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:24,760
Speaker 2: leader in the global economy, you have other countries like Japan,

1192
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:28,880
Speaker 2: China and others which are reliant on US consumers and

1193
00:58:29,000 --> 00:58:32,280
Speaker 2: manufacturing are buying manufactured goods in their economy which then

1194
00:58:32,320 --> 00:58:34,080
Speaker 2: significantly drop as a result.

1195
00:58:34,160 --> 00:58:35,640
Speaker 3: So it's a global slowdown, Crystal.

1196
00:58:35,720 --> 00:58:39,120
Speaker 2: We've got high inflation and now we're getting higher unemployment,

1197
00:58:39,480 --> 00:58:42,480
Speaker 2: much like the stagflation days of the nineteen seventies, and

1198
00:58:42,560 --> 00:58:45,640
Speaker 2: what we have on our hands is potentially a very

1199
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:46,720
Speaker 2: real mess.

1200
00:58:47,040 --> 00:58:48,440
Speaker 4: Oh, no doubt about it.

1201
00:58:48,480 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 1: And I think it's becoming increasingly clear the FED screwed up.

1202
00:58:52,000 --> 00:58:54,959
Speaker 1: You know, there was a lot of premature celebration about

1203
00:58:54,960 --> 00:58:58,959
Speaker 1: a quote unquote soft landing because inflation had come down

1204
00:58:59,560 --> 00:59:03,600
Speaker 1: and employment had still been quite strong. But as we've

1205
00:59:03,640 --> 00:59:07,040
Speaker 1: been saying for quite a while now, these tools that

1206
00:59:07,080 --> 00:59:12,320
Speaker 1: the FED uses of hiking interest rates are very blunt tools,

1207
00:59:12,600 --> 00:59:15,480
Speaker 1: and it is a real guessing game, and it takes

1208
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:19,520
Speaker 1: a while before those tools show up and really bite.

1209
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:23,760
Speaker 1: So the fact that they waited so long to reverse

1210
00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:26,680
Speaker 1: course and begin cutting interest rates is right now at

1211
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:32,440
Speaker 1: this moment, looking like a tremendous mistake, because this jobs

1212
00:59:32,480 --> 00:59:34,720
Speaker 1: report that just came out was an I mean, it

1213
00:59:34,760 --> 00:59:36,920
Speaker 1: was an utter disaster in terms of the hike in

1214
00:59:36,960 --> 00:59:39,480
Speaker 1: the unemployment rate, the very low number of jobs that

1215
00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 1: were created, and now it is triggering this massive global

1216
00:59:44,040 --> 00:59:47,960
Speaker 1: free count because the US economy had been somewhat unusually

1217
00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:50,920
Speaker 1: strong and really bolstered kind of world prospects and world

1218
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:55,240
Speaker 1: economic sentiment. So with the rug being pulled out from

1219
00:59:55,320 --> 00:59:58,880
Speaker 1: under that, we don't know where this free fall ultimately ends.

1220
00:59:59,200 --> 01:00:01,320
Speaker 1: You add to that other thing that we've been covering

1221
01:00:02,000 --> 01:00:06,680
Speaker 1: is this possibility that all the AI euphoria is another

1222
01:00:07,080 --> 01:00:11,480
Speaker 1: tech bubble a la the late nineties Internet bubble. Not

1223
01:00:11,560 --> 01:00:14,000
Speaker 1: to say it's not an important innovation, not to say

1224
01:00:14,040 --> 01:00:17,760
Speaker 1: it won't be game changing in certain important respects, just

1225
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:20,240
Speaker 1: as the Internet was. But you can still have this

1226
01:00:20,320 --> 01:00:23,760
Speaker 1: irrational exuberance, all of this money pouring into ventures that

1227
01:00:23,840 --> 01:00:26,520
Speaker 1: don't make a lot of economic sense, and it seems

1228
01:00:26,560 --> 01:00:28,880
Speaker 1: like we may be in that position as well. You

1229
01:00:28,920 --> 01:00:31,320
Speaker 1: add to that, you've also got huge drops in terms

1230
01:00:31,360 --> 01:00:35,800
Speaker 1: of bitcoin and other crypto So this is a very

1231
01:00:35,880 --> 01:00:38,680
Speaker 1: chaotic situation that we're looking at this morning. It'll be,

1232
01:00:38,960 --> 01:00:41,720
Speaker 1: you know, quite frightening to see where the US indexes

1233
01:00:41,800 --> 01:00:43,080
Speaker 1: end up at the end of the day here too.

1234
01:00:43,360 --> 01:00:47,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, the stock market index that tracks Wall Street fear,

1235
01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:49,960
Speaker 2: known as the VIS is at the highest level since

1236
01:00:50,000 --> 01:00:53,600
Speaker 2: it's been since April of twenty twenty as of this morning.

1237
01:00:53,680 --> 01:00:55,360
Speaker 2: Let's put this up there on the screen, because we

1238
01:00:55,480 --> 01:00:58,120
Speaker 2: literally just did a segment about not only about US

1239
01:00:58,200 --> 01:01:00,720
Speaker 2: economic data, but what they mentioned here in the Guardian

1240
01:01:01,120 --> 01:01:05,240
Speaker 2: is market turmoil from a potential war in the Middle East.

1241
01:01:05,280 --> 01:01:07,400
Speaker 2: I don't think it takes a genius to figure out

1242
01:01:07,440 --> 01:01:11,120
Speaker 2: that missiles flying all over very critical airspace and in

1243
01:01:11,240 --> 01:01:15,840
Speaker 2: naval waters, which are critical to transporting large petroleum and

1244
01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:20,280
Speaker 2: natural gas shipments, could significantly spike global prices and put

1245
01:01:20,320 --> 01:01:22,520
Speaker 2: even more pressure, very much like they did in the

1246
01:01:22,560 --> 01:01:23,600
Speaker 2: nineteen seventies with.

1247
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:24,840
Speaker 3: The OPEC embargo.

1248
01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:28,000
Speaker 2: So all of the fundamentals there are literally around for

1249
01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:31,160
Speaker 2: a complete catastrophe in the next several months. We talked

1250
01:01:31,160 --> 01:01:35,320
Speaker 2: previously about the potential horse race implications, but economically it's

1251
01:01:35,360 --> 01:01:39,600
Speaker 2: probably never been worse since that time, just because we

1252
01:01:39,720 --> 01:01:42,760
Speaker 2: have a housing crisis in terms of the stickiness of

1253
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:46,240
Speaker 2: overall home prices that's still affected by supply and demand.

1254
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:48,520
Speaker 2: In fact, I just read this morning that they're actually

1255
01:01:48,560 --> 01:01:52,320
Speaker 2: going to be increasing the standards for lending, further restricting

1256
01:01:52,360 --> 01:01:54,520
Speaker 2: the amount of capital that's out there for people who

1257
01:01:54,520 --> 01:01:55,400
Speaker 2: want out mortgages.

1258
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:56,960
Speaker 3: This is from Fanny May and Freddie Mack.

1259
01:01:57,280 --> 01:02:00,960
Speaker 2: You've also got the geopolitical tensions and pressure Russia, Ukraine,

1260
01:02:01,000 --> 01:02:04,440
Speaker 2: now the Israel situation with Iran. Then you've got the

1261
01:02:04,520 --> 01:02:08,520
Speaker 2: unemployment fears, and now you've got some misguided federal reserve policy.

1262
01:02:08,600 --> 01:02:11,200
Speaker 2: Let's put D three please up on the screen. This

1263
01:02:11,240 --> 01:02:14,920
Speaker 2: is another indicator data wise of where we may be.

1264
01:02:15,640 --> 01:02:18,160
Speaker 2: This is the official chart showing the quote unquote PSALM

1265
01:02:18,280 --> 01:02:21,960
Speaker 2: rule has been triggered. This is the real time recession

1266
01:02:22,040 --> 01:02:26,400
Speaker 2: indicator that was developed by an economist, Claudia sam historically

1267
01:02:26,560 --> 01:02:29,360
Speaker 2: quote this indicates the economy is in the early stages

1268
01:02:29,400 --> 01:02:32,400
Speaker 2: of a recession. It's possible quirks of the post pandemic

1269
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:35,680
Speaker 2: recovery mean we could still avoid that, but this is concerning.

1270
01:02:35,960 --> 01:02:39,520
Speaker 2: As Heatherlong notes, now, I wanted to previously raise one

1271
01:02:39,520 --> 01:02:41,840
Speaker 2: of the things that made the Federal Reserve move so

1272
01:02:41,960 --> 01:02:45,800
Speaker 2: puzzling is that was actually in contrast to other central banks.

1273
01:02:45,840 --> 01:02:46,800
Speaker 3: Let's put this up there.

1274
01:02:46,920 --> 01:02:49,400
Speaker 2: For example, from the Bank of England just days ago

1275
01:02:49,560 --> 01:02:51,880
Speaker 2: actually lowered its A and interest rate yero point two

1276
01:02:52,000 --> 01:02:54,960
Speaker 2: five percent to five first cut in over four years.

1277
01:02:55,080 --> 01:02:57,840
Speaker 2: Some people were expecting that. Now it seems that the

1278
01:02:57,840 --> 01:03:01,160
Speaker 2: earliest possible rate cut from the Federal Reserve come in September,

1279
01:03:01,400 --> 01:03:03,160
Speaker 2: but that is, of course, you know, a little bit

1280
01:03:03,160 --> 01:03:05,640
Speaker 2: of time to wait, and there could be significant sell

1281
01:03:05,680 --> 01:03:07,440
Speaker 2: off in the interim period.

1282
01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:07,840
Speaker 3: Crystal.

1283
01:03:08,640 --> 01:03:12,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you have a lot of Wall Street types

1284
01:03:12,280 --> 01:03:15,600
Speaker 1: analysts saying, hey, we need an emergency rate cut and

1285
01:03:15,640 --> 01:03:17,640
Speaker 1: we need it right now. I know you shared with

1286
01:03:17,760 --> 01:03:20,840
Speaker 1: our group chat this morning, you had Jeremy Siegel from

1287
01:03:20,880 --> 01:03:24,960
Speaker 1: Wharton saying we need a seventy five basis point emergency

1288
01:03:25,040 --> 01:03:27,600
Speaker 1: cut in the FED funds rate, with another seventy five

1289
01:03:27,680 --> 01:03:30,920
Speaker 1: basis point cut indicated for next month at the September meeting.

1290
01:03:31,040 --> 01:03:32,600
Speaker 4: And that's minimum.

1291
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:35,760
Speaker 1: That gives you a sense of the level of concern

1292
01:03:36,320 --> 01:03:39,000
Speaker 1: that we could be entering this sort of doom spy

1293
01:03:39,120 --> 01:03:41,920
Speaker 1: role now with the Fed having waited way too long

1294
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:46,760
Speaker 1: to begin cutting interest rates. So it's a very very

1295
01:03:46,760 --> 01:03:50,840
Speaker 1: scary morning out there. And I think the big trigger

1296
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:55,000
Speaker 1: was this very poor jobs report came in way under

1297
01:03:55,040 --> 01:03:58,440
Speaker 1: expectations and triggered the SAM rule. And officially, the SAM

1298
01:03:58,600 --> 01:04:03,240
Speaker 1: rule holds that if unemployment has jumped zero point five

1299
01:04:03,320 --> 01:04:06,960
Speaker 1: percent from the low of the past year, and that's soccer,

1300
01:04:07,000 --> 01:04:09,600
Speaker 1: as you were pointing out, that's what this chart shows here. Now,

1301
01:04:09,600 --> 01:04:12,400
Speaker 1: there could be mitigating factors. The economy has been really weird,

1302
01:04:12,920 --> 01:04:15,400
Speaker 1: So you know, maybe the Fed is able to act quickly,

1303
01:04:15,720 --> 01:04:19,280
Speaker 1: maybe they're able to forestall the worst of potential consequences.

1304
01:04:19,880 --> 01:04:21,760
Speaker 1: But I don't think there's any doubt that they waited

1305
01:04:21,840 --> 01:04:24,320
Speaker 1: too long. To act it to change course here. I

1306
01:04:24,320 --> 01:04:25,600
Speaker 1: think that's pretty clear this morning.

1307
01:04:25,960 --> 01:04:27,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it appears when markets are pricing in some

1308
01:04:28,000 --> 01:04:31,600
Speaker 2: emergency rate cut certainly possible, but anytime you just have that,

1309
01:04:31,680 --> 01:04:35,480
Speaker 2: it just indicates chaos amongst decision makers. It does look

1310
01:04:35,560 --> 01:04:38,680
Speaker 2: like a huge amount of this comes back to Japan,

1311
01:04:39,320 --> 01:04:41,360
Speaker 2: but a lot of it also has its roots as

1312
01:04:41,360 --> 01:04:44,840
Speaker 2: I'm reading in the Financial Times in AI, and we've

1313
01:04:44,880 --> 01:04:48,720
Speaker 2: done several segments here previously just about how much of

1314
01:04:48,760 --> 01:04:52,400
Speaker 2: the quote unquote magnificent seven stocks or Nvidia or others

1315
01:04:52,440 --> 01:04:55,480
Speaker 2: compromise the S and P five hundred, and how you

1316
01:04:55,560 --> 01:04:58,800
Speaker 2: might have a lot more exposure just given the significant

1317
01:04:58,800 --> 01:05:01,760
Speaker 2: growth in those stocks. Even if you do or are

1318
01:05:01,840 --> 01:05:04,280
Speaker 2: invested just in a very standard S and P five

1319
01:05:04,360 --> 01:05:07,600
Speaker 2: hundred index, you will have much more exposure than you

1320
01:05:07,640 --> 01:05:11,040
Speaker 2: previously might have thought, just to technology stocks, which itself

1321
01:05:11,360 --> 01:05:16,240
Speaker 2: have expended tens of billions of dollars on expected AI returns,

1322
01:05:16,280 --> 01:05:18,600
Speaker 2: which we know have not yet materialized. Doesn't mean they

1323
01:05:18,600 --> 01:05:20,840
Speaker 2: may not, you know, it could take a couple of years.

1324
01:05:20,840 --> 01:05:22,720
Speaker 2: But in the immediate term, which is what the stock

1325
01:05:22,760 --> 01:05:25,920
Speaker 2: market is generally kind of you know, interested in, and

1326
01:05:25,960 --> 01:05:28,080
Speaker 2: what future quarterly returns, et cetera.

1327
01:05:28,200 --> 01:05:29,960
Speaker 3: That's not the best place to be in.

1328
01:05:30,040 --> 01:05:33,640
Speaker 2: So with contracting stock prices, you always have liquidity problems

1329
01:05:33,680 --> 01:05:36,960
Speaker 2: at different companies. You're also seeing a major slide at Bigcoin,

1330
01:05:37,280 --> 01:05:39,800
Speaker 2: as you said, probably indicative of people having to take

1331
01:05:39,920 --> 01:05:43,240
Speaker 2: risk off in their portfolios. And there was also I

1332
01:05:43,320 --> 01:05:45,000
Speaker 2: was kind of I'm still trying to get my head

1333
01:05:45,000 --> 01:05:47,000
Speaker 2: around it, but apparently it was a very popular trade

1334
01:05:47,000 --> 01:05:49,400
Speaker 2: on Wall Street that involved the Japanese yen. I am

1335
01:05:49,440 --> 01:05:51,800
Speaker 2: not smart enough exactly to understand it, but it has

1336
01:05:51,800 --> 01:05:54,080
Speaker 2: something involved with interest rate, and it was called a

1337
01:05:54,160 --> 01:05:58,040
Speaker 2: carry straddle. But anyways, the Bank of Japan has blown

1338
01:05:58,080 --> 01:05:59,960
Speaker 2: that trade up, which is apparently was one of the

1339
01:06:00,280 --> 01:06:03,160
Speaker 2: most popular trades on all Wall Street for the last

1340
01:06:03,200 --> 01:06:06,400
Speaker 2: six to ten months, blowing that up overnight, which also

1341
01:06:06,760 --> 01:06:09,080
Speaker 2: is a problem because if it triggers a sell off,

1342
01:06:09,320 --> 01:06:12,040
Speaker 2: and of course it always filters down to us, because

1343
01:06:12,080 --> 01:06:14,800
Speaker 2: when companies have problems, they take it out on their workers.

1344
01:06:15,280 --> 01:06:15,640
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1345
01:06:15,760 --> 01:06:18,520
Speaker 1: I also saw tweets about that and also was incapable

1346
01:06:18,600 --> 01:06:20,600
Speaker 1: of Really I didn't take the time to wrap my

1347
01:06:20,600 --> 01:06:21,440
Speaker 1: head around that one yet.

1348
01:06:21,640 --> 01:06:23,920
Speaker 3: I'm not smart enough to understand the carry straddle. I

1349
01:06:23,960 --> 01:06:26,000
Speaker 3: know it exists. That's the best I could possibly do

1350
01:06:26,120 --> 01:06:26,800
Speaker 3: if I spent.

1351
01:06:26,680 --> 01:06:29,040
Speaker 1: A day like really taking into it. Maybe, But yeah,

1352
01:06:29,240 --> 01:06:31,160
Speaker 1: just based on a tweet. No, it wasn't gonna wasn't

1353
01:06:31,160 --> 01:06:33,320
Speaker 1: gonna get that one wrapped into my head this morning.

1354
01:06:33,360 --> 01:06:35,840
Speaker 1: But you know, as we're recording this, Dow futures are

1355
01:06:35,840 --> 01:06:38,080
Speaker 1: down one thousand points, So bubble your seat belt. This

1356
01:06:38,160 --> 01:06:44,520
Speaker 1: could get extremely ugly, all right, speaking extremely ugly, we

1357
01:06:44,600 --> 01:06:46,840
Speaker 1: have a big old culture war fight that normally soccer

1358
01:06:46,840 --> 01:06:49,760
Speaker 1: and I typically avoid these like the plague.

1359
01:06:49,480 --> 01:06:51,120
Speaker 4: If we're being totally honest.

1360
01:06:51,280 --> 01:06:55,360
Speaker 1: However, this one has been embraced by the top of

1361
01:06:55,400 --> 01:06:58,360
Speaker 1: the GOP ticket, both by Donald Trump and JD. Vance,

1362
01:06:58,440 --> 01:07:00,160
Speaker 1: and I have to tell you it is one We're

1363
01:07:00,160 --> 01:07:02,560
Speaker 1: going to try to have a non stupid discussion about it.

1364
01:07:02,560 --> 01:07:06,160
Speaker 1: It is actually a topic that I find challenging and

1365
01:07:06,360 --> 01:07:08,680
Speaker 1: intellectually interesting, So let's go ahead and dig into it.

1366
01:07:08,680 --> 01:07:11,840
Speaker 1: There was a women's boxing match in the Olympics. We

1367
01:07:11,880 --> 01:07:13,520
Speaker 1: can go ahead and put some of these images up

1368
01:07:13,560 --> 01:07:16,520
Speaker 1: on the screen. We have an Italian boxer, Angela Karini

1369
01:07:16,600 --> 01:07:22,640
Speaker 1: versus an Algerian boxer Amani Khalif, and this match ended

1370
01:07:22,960 --> 01:07:26,680
Speaker 1: very quickly. The Italian boxer took a couple of blows

1371
01:07:26,840 --> 01:07:30,240
Speaker 1: and then she forfeited the fight. She came out tearfully,

1372
01:07:30,280 --> 01:07:32,360
Speaker 1: and we can actually put her comments up on the

1373
01:07:32,400 --> 01:07:37,560
Speaker 1: screen immediately afterwards and talked about why she decided to withdraw.

1374
01:07:37,680 --> 01:07:40,400
Speaker 1: Here are her comments in full. She said, my face

1375
01:07:40,440 --> 01:07:43,240
Speaker 1: and nose were hurting. I couldn't breathe anymore. I thought

1376
01:07:43,240 --> 01:07:45,480
Speaker 1: about my family. I looked at my brother in the stands,

1377
01:07:45,480 --> 01:07:48,000
Speaker 1: and I went to my corner to retire. I've never

1378
01:07:48,120 --> 01:07:51,760
Speaker 1: been hit with such a powerful punch. She added that

1379
01:07:51,760 --> 01:07:54,520
Speaker 1: the withdrawal was not a premeditated move. All this controversy,

1380
01:07:54,600 --> 01:07:56,800
Speaker 1: she said, makes me sad. Later on she said this,

1381
01:07:56,880 --> 01:08:00,200
Speaker 1: and she said she wanted to apologize to Amani for

1382
01:08:00,320 --> 01:08:04,920
Speaker 1: the controversy. And the controversy is that after this withdrawal,

1383
01:08:05,080 --> 01:08:09,200
Speaker 1: a bunch of people online, including JK. Rowling, began speculating

1384
01:08:09,320 --> 01:08:11,439
Speaker 1: that Amani was actually a man.

1385
01:08:11,560 --> 01:08:11,720
Speaker 4: Now.

1386
01:08:11,880 --> 01:08:14,920
Speaker 1: First of all, they were saying she's transgender. She is

1387
01:08:16,160 --> 01:08:20,439
Speaker 1: not transgender. We can put put E four up on

1388
01:08:20,520 --> 01:08:23,559
Speaker 1: the screen that has some of the details of this

1389
01:08:23,640 --> 01:08:26,960
Speaker 1: fight and what happened. So she was born a woman,

1390
01:08:27,040 --> 01:08:30,719
Speaker 1: woman on her passport, raised a woman, et cetera. However,

1391
01:08:31,640 --> 01:08:36,080
Speaker 1: there was another boxing organization that at one point had

1392
01:08:36,760 --> 01:08:44,599
Speaker 1: disqualified Amani and another fighter is not meeting their gender criteria. Now,

1393
01:08:44,720 --> 01:08:48,040
Speaker 1: this boxing organization has come under a lot of scrutiny.

1394
01:08:48,040 --> 01:08:53,040
Speaker 1: It's called the International Boxing Association. The Olympic Committee actually

1395
01:08:54,040 --> 01:08:56,840
Speaker 1: kicked them out from regulating the sport and took over

1396
01:08:56,880 --> 01:08:58,880
Speaker 1: the sport because they had all.

1397
01:08:58,840 --> 01:08:59,880
Speaker 4: Kinds of corrupt dealing.

1398
01:09:00,160 --> 01:09:01,880
Speaker 1: One of the guys that was running it was this

1399
01:09:02,000 --> 01:09:05,960
Speaker 1: like Russian mob boss. Another person was super close to Putin,

1400
01:09:06,400 --> 01:09:11,320
Speaker 1: and it called into question this test that had allegedly

1401
01:09:11,360 --> 01:09:14,400
Speaker 1: found that Amani and another boxer who's also competing at

1402
01:09:14,400 --> 01:09:17,760
Speaker 1: the Olympics did not meet the gender criteria. And just

1403
01:09:17,800 --> 01:09:19,400
Speaker 1: to give you the backstory, I went too deep on this,

1404
01:09:19,479 --> 01:09:23,080
Speaker 1: but anyway, to give you the backstory here, Amani had

1405
01:09:23,200 --> 01:09:26,519
Speaker 1: just defeated a Russian fighter who at that point had

1406
01:09:26,520 --> 01:09:30,439
Speaker 1: been undefeated and was this very promising amateur coming up.

1407
01:09:31,080 --> 01:09:33,840
Speaker 1: So Amani's been fighting no problem, you know, in the

1408
01:09:33,880 --> 01:09:36,880
Speaker 1: women's category, raises women, et cetera, et cetera. She beats

1409
01:09:36,960 --> 01:09:40,160
Speaker 1: this Russian boxer and all of a sudden, this very

1410
01:09:40,200 --> 01:09:45,360
Speaker 1: closely Russian tide organization disqualifies her and this other boxer

1411
01:09:45,400 --> 01:09:48,040
Speaker 1: for failing to meet their gender criteria.

1412
01:09:48,160 --> 01:09:49,160
Speaker 4: They told a.

1413
01:09:49,160 --> 01:09:53,960
Speaker 1: Russian state sponsored news organization that it was because she

1414
01:09:54,080 --> 01:09:57,920
Speaker 1: had an x Y chromosome. However, since then they haven't

1415
01:09:57,960 --> 01:10:00,320
Speaker 1: been willing to verify what the test was or really

1416
01:10:00,360 --> 01:10:05,120
Speaker 1: speak about it. The Olympic Committee is standing by Amani's

1417
01:10:05,160 --> 01:10:09,160
Speaker 1: classification as a woman. We haven't heard really from Amani

1418
01:10:09,200 --> 01:10:12,320
Speaker 1: herself her full side of the story. In any case,

1419
01:10:12,560 --> 01:10:16,840
Speaker 1: this sparked a whole political freak ount and really a

1420
01:10:16,960 --> 01:10:21,519
Speaker 1: kind of like online mob going after her for her

1421
01:10:22,040 --> 01:10:25,760
Speaker 1: number one not looking sort of traditionally female. Number two,

1422
01:10:26,160 --> 01:10:29,000
Speaker 1: this this is just a total lie that she was

1423
01:10:29,040 --> 01:10:31,800
Speaker 1: transgender and sort of tying it into that debate. And

1424
01:10:31,840 --> 01:10:35,519
Speaker 1: then number three, wild speculation about things that we really

1425
01:10:35,600 --> 01:10:38,960
Speaker 1: don't know. You know, it is possible that she has

1426
01:10:39,439 --> 01:10:43,880
Speaker 1: DSD differences in sexual development or she's in the other

1427
01:10:43,920 --> 01:10:47,000
Speaker 1: word for that is intersex. That is possible that could

1428
01:10:47,040 --> 01:10:49,599
Speaker 1: have been indicated by this test. We don't know for sure.

1429
01:10:50,160 --> 01:10:52,799
Speaker 1: It's possible that she has some sort of a hormonal disorder,

1430
01:10:52,840 --> 01:10:56,800
Speaker 1: could be from DSD that causes her to produce more testosterone.

1431
01:10:56,840 --> 01:11:00,280
Speaker 4: We don't know that either. So what you've ended up with.

1432
01:11:00,320 --> 01:11:03,920
Speaker 1: Is just a bunch of wild speculation and what I've found,

1433
01:11:04,080 --> 01:11:07,160
Speaker 1: you know, sort of offensive and has struck me, as

1434
01:11:07,200 --> 01:11:11,240
Speaker 1: a former female athlete myself difficult about it and disturbing

1435
01:11:11,280 --> 01:11:13,160
Speaker 1: about it is the way that so much of it

1436
01:11:13,200 --> 01:11:17,400
Speaker 1: is just based on her appearance as not conforming to

1437
01:11:17,479 --> 01:11:20,479
Speaker 1: sort of traditional female beauty standards. And then just the

1438
01:11:20,479 --> 01:11:23,120
Speaker 1: fact that they're just completely lying that she's transgender when

1439
01:11:23,160 --> 01:11:24,600
Speaker 1: she is not in fact transgender.

1440
01:11:24,800 --> 01:11:27,400
Speaker 2: Okay, I will say this, I blame that Italian lady

1441
01:11:27,479 --> 01:11:31,080
Speaker 2: because she's the one who heavily implied that she lost

1442
01:11:31,120 --> 01:11:34,479
Speaker 2: as a result of her opponent being transgender. Now I'm

1443
01:11:34,479 --> 01:11:37,080
Speaker 2: not going to sit here and justify JK. Rowling immediately

1444
01:11:37,160 --> 01:11:39,800
Speaker 2: coming out and not doing enough research. This is part

1445
01:11:39,840 --> 01:11:41,599
Speaker 2: of the problem, is that people want to sling takes,

1446
01:11:41,600 --> 01:11:43,680
Speaker 2: and they want to take things at face value, and

1447
01:11:43,720 --> 01:11:45,960
Speaker 2: now all of a sudden, you know, they take they're like, oh, well,

1448
01:11:46,000 --> 01:11:49,160
Speaker 2: the IBA set at the International Boxing Association, nobody knows

1449
01:11:49,200 --> 01:11:51,439
Speaker 2: anything about the background, And of course there's a political

1450
01:11:51,760 --> 01:11:54,960
Speaker 2: incentive in order to portray that. I guess one of

1451
01:11:55,000 --> 01:11:57,000
Speaker 2: the only reasons I'm willing to cut some slack here

1452
01:11:57,120 --> 01:12:01,040
Speaker 2: is that there have been instances previously in athletics and

1453
01:12:01,120 --> 01:12:04,880
Speaker 2: elsewhere where transgender athletes were allowed to compete in women's sports,

1454
01:12:04,920 --> 01:12:07,320
Speaker 2: and there obviously, well, I mean, it's a reality that

1455
01:12:07,439 --> 01:12:09,880
Speaker 2: was created that made it believable in the first place.

1456
01:12:09,920 --> 01:12:13,720
Speaker 2: That is not justifying people who are coming out and

1457
01:12:13,800 --> 01:12:17,200
Speaker 2: pushing these out, because I am not satisfied that there

1458
01:12:17,240 --> 01:12:20,200
Speaker 2: is any real evidence that this woman even has. While

1459
01:12:20,200 --> 01:12:23,160
Speaker 2: we were talking about that, what was it, DSD as,

1460
01:12:23,200 --> 01:12:25,880
Speaker 2: I understand it she passed the quote unquote gender test

1461
01:12:25,920 --> 01:12:28,880
Speaker 2: at the International Olympic Committee. I do understand though, that

1462
01:12:28,920 --> 01:12:34,680
Speaker 2: the IOC and many of these countries have significant incentives

1463
01:12:34,720 --> 01:12:37,000
Speaker 2: sometimes to game the system, not just on gender, but

1464
01:12:37,479 --> 01:12:40,719
Speaker 2: for testosterone hormone therapy, et cetera.

1465
01:12:40,760 --> 01:12:42,960
Speaker 3: As we all learned it's so cheap, countries.

1466
01:12:42,600 --> 01:12:47,680
Speaker 2: Are literally willing to go to extraordinarily extraordinarily extraordinary efforts

1467
01:12:47,680 --> 01:12:50,439
Speaker 2: to try and to deceive the Olympic Games.

1468
01:12:50,439 --> 01:12:51,080
Speaker 3: So I saw it.

1469
01:12:51,360 --> 01:12:54,439
Speaker 2: Within the context of people thought it was believable simply

1470
01:12:54,520 --> 01:12:58,240
Speaker 2: because it has literally happened, you know, previously, not only

1471
01:12:58,240 --> 01:13:02,360
Speaker 2: in combat sports, but also and other competitive athletics. I

1472
01:13:02,360 --> 01:13:05,120
Speaker 2: do feel bad for her, though, certainly because just because

1473
01:13:05,280 --> 01:13:07,680
Speaker 2: somebody's created a reality where such an event would be

1474
01:13:07,680 --> 01:13:10,439
Speaker 2: certainly believable, doesn't mean that she deserves to be victim

1475
01:13:10,520 --> 01:13:10,800
Speaker 2: of it.

1476
01:13:11,520 --> 01:13:13,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, it made me think a lot.

1477
01:13:13,280 --> 01:13:15,960
Speaker 1: And we've actually talked a little bit offline about this

1478
01:13:16,040 --> 01:13:20,880
Speaker 1: case of Castor Semenya, who is a sprinter and a runner.

1479
01:13:20,920 --> 01:13:27,040
Speaker 1: She's an extraordinary athlete, and she faced similar scrutiny and

1480
01:13:27,400 --> 01:13:30,360
Speaker 1: it came out and now you know, I actually in

1481
01:13:30,400 --> 01:13:32,439
Speaker 1: some ways prefer to talk about Caster's case because we

1482
01:13:32,439 --> 01:13:35,400
Speaker 1: actually know the details, whereas with the money we genuinely

1483
01:13:35,439 --> 01:13:39,360
Speaker 1: don't know the details. Here, there's just rampant speculation. One

1484
01:13:39,400 --> 01:13:42,280
Speaker 1: thing we do know, she was identified female birth. Transgenderism

1485
01:13:42,360 --> 01:13:44,880
Speaker 1: is literally illegal in the country she's from, right, She

1486
01:13:44,920 --> 01:13:48,000
Speaker 1: was identified female at birth, so she has the visual

1487
01:13:48,080 --> 01:13:51,240
Speaker 1: genital appearance as a female. Apparently love having to talk

1488
01:13:51,240 --> 01:13:53,679
Speaker 1: about these things. She was raised as a girl. There's

1489
01:13:53,720 --> 01:13:56,000
Speaker 1: pictures of her as a very girly looking little girl

1490
01:13:56,000 --> 01:14:00,000
Speaker 1: with giant pink earrings, and in fact she had huge

1491
01:14:00,680 --> 01:14:04,080
Speaker 1: obstacles to being able to train as a boxer because

1492
01:14:04,120 --> 01:14:08,559
Speaker 1: her dad didn't approve of girls boxing. She and her

1493
01:14:08,600 --> 01:14:11,040
Speaker 1: mom she came from a very poor family and a

1494
01:14:11,160 --> 01:14:14,719
Speaker 1: very conservative part of Algeria. She and her mom sold

1495
01:14:14,840 --> 01:14:17,680
Speaker 1: scrap metal and would cook and sell the food to

1496
01:14:18,000 --> 01:14:21,720
Speaker 1: raise money for her training, which she hid from her

1497
01:14:21,720 --> 01:14:23,479
Speaker 1: father because, as I said, he didn't.

1498
01:14:23,280 --> 01:14:25,519
Speaker 4: Approve because she was the girl.

1499
01:14:26,120 --> 01:14:28,519
Speaker 1: So it is heartbreaking to see the way that she

1500
01:14:28,680 --> 01:14:32,400
Speaker 1: has been, you know, unfairly Attacksmearred lied about et cetera,

1501
01:14:32,439 --> 01:14:35,760
Speaker 1: et cetera. You know, the case of castor semenia. It

1502
01:14:35,800 --> 01:14:41,800
Speaker 1: does raise really difficult questions because she is intersex or

1503
01:14:42,080 --> 01:14:46,400
Speaker 1: has DSD. She visually, you know, if you just were

1504
01:14:46,400 --> 01:14:49,960
Speaker 1: looking at the external bits, looks like a woman. However,

1505
01:14:50,040 --> 01:14:54,960
Speaker 1: she doesn't have some of the internal bits fallopian tubes, ovaries,

1506
01:14:55,080 --> 01:14:59,439
Speaker 1: et cetera. And because of the way she was naturally born,

1507
01:15:00,360 --> 01:15:05,400
Speaker 1: she naturally produces more testosterone than is.

1508
01:15:05,320 --> 01:15:09,280
Speaker 4: The quote unquote normal range for women. So what do

1509
01:15:09,320 --> 01:15:09,880
Speaker 4: you do with that?

1510
01:15:10,240 --> 01:15:12,439
Speaker 1: You know, this is like, this is a woman by

1511
01:15:12,520 --> 01:15:16,880
Speaker 1: most metrics, but she naturally produces more testosterone than your

1512
01:15:16,920 --> 01:15:19,840
Speaker 1: average woman. Okay, well, on the one hand, you say, okay, well,

1513
01:15:19,840 --> 01:15:22,120
Speaker 1: maybe that's not fair, But then you also think about

1514
01:15:22,600 --> 01:15:25,720
Speaker 1: there are many competitive advantages which don't seem particularly fair.

1515
01:15:25,720 --> 01:15:28,760
Speaker 1: I'm sure Michael Phelps competitors didn't feel it was particularly fair.

1516
01:15:28,800 --> 01:15:31,559
Speaker 4: That he's like, you know, built like a fish, with.

1517
01:15:31,520 --> 01:15:36,439
Speaker 1: This insanely freakishly long wingspan and double jointed ankles that

1518
01:15:36,479 --> 01:15:38,840
Speaker 1: allow him to get more propulsion out of his kick,

1519
01:15:38,880 --> 01:15:41,400
Speaker 1: and his body doesn't produce as much lactic acid as

1520
01:15:41,439 --> 01:15:46,160
Speaker 1: other athletes. He's another sort of genetic outlier, which, of course,

1521
01:15:46,200 --> 01:15:49,519
Speaker 1: when you get to elite athletics, you're going to find

1522
01:15:49,600 --> 01:15:52,240
Speaker 1: almost everybody who's competing at this level is going to

1523
01:15:52,240 --> 01:15:56,360
Speaker 1: be some sort of a genetic outlier. So I guess

1524
01:15:56,479 --> 01:15:58,760
Speaker 1: part of what I don't have many easy answers for this,

1525
01:15:58,880 --> 01:16:01,200
Speaker 1: By the way, I think it's actually very difficult question

1526
01:16:01,400 --> 01:16:04,360
Speaker 1: to figure out where you draw the line, because no

1527
01:16:04,360 --> 01:16:06,599
Speaker 1: matter where you draw the line, it's going to be

1528
01:16:06,680 --> 01:16:10,000
Speaker 1: unfair to someone. Right, There is really no perfect answer.

1529
01:16:10,040 --> 01:16:12,599
Speaker 1: I think the answer are also probably very score by sport,

1530
01:16:13,000 --> 01:16:16,720
Speaker 1: Like for example, in boxing, you know, we've obviously decided

1531
01:16:16,880 --> 01:16:19,639
Speaker 1: it's not fair to have some giant person fighting against

1532
01:16:19,640 --> 01:16:23,120
Speaker 1: some tiny person, so they instituted weight categories because it's

1533
01:16:23,160 --> 01:16:25,479
Speaker 1: not just you're not just losing a race, you're in

1534
01:16:25,600 --> 01:16:28,400
Speaker 1: the possibility of getting injured, getting hurt, and so that

1535
01:16:28,439 --> 01:16:32,000
Speaker 1: adds a level of care and concern about unfair advantages

1536
01:16:32,600 --> 01:16:35,920
Speaker 1: that could be dangerous to your competitor. So I think

1537
01:16:35,920 --> 01:16:38,320
Speaker 1: it could be different sport by sport. But I guess

1538
01:16:38,320 --> 01:16:40,680
Speaker 1: my big takeaway here is that a lot of the

1539
01:16:40,720 --> 01:16:45,040
Speaker 1: discourse on the right is very simplistic, just like women

1540
01:16:45,080 --> 01:16:47,200
Speaker 1: should be fighting women and men should be fighting men,

1541
01:16:47,840 --> 01:16:50,680
Speaker 1: and cases like cast or Semnia, and potentially, although we

1542
01:16:50,720 --> 01:16:55,599
Speaker 1: don't know, cases like a moaning Khaliph shows that nature

1543
01:16:55,640 --> 01:16:59,360
Speaker 1: doesn't actually draw a really clear and obvious line. Usually, yes,

1544
01:16:59,400 --> 01:17:02,639
Speaker 1: in ninety nine nine point nine percent of cases, it's

1545
01:17:02,800 --> 01:17:06,479
Speaker 1: very obvious, but especially in elite athletics, you're going to

1546
01:17:06,560 --> 01:17:09,800
Speaker 1: have these edge cases, these borderline cases that are really

1547
01:17:09,840 --> 01:17:12,240
Speaker 1: difficult and aren't really black and white.

1548
01:17:12,280 --> 01:17:15,320
Speaker 2: So yeah, but I think it's a very different case here.

1549
01:17:15,360 --> 01:17:18,800
Speaker 2: You have somebody who's born naturally. Again we don't know. Okay,

1550
01:17:18,880 --> 01:17:22,040
Speaker 2: the IBA apparently claimed that they say they have evidence.

1551
01:17:22,040 --> 01:17:23,160
Speaker 3: I don't know, they should release it.

1552
01:17:23,160 --> 01:17:25,760
Speaker 2: Okay, maybe the IOC should come out and clarify the

1553
01:17:25,760 --> 01:17:27,800
Speaker 2: situation too, just to make it very clear.

1554
01:17:27,840 --> 01:17:28,559
Speaker 3: But it's very different.

1555
01:17:28,640 --> 01:17:31,360
Speaker 2: We're born naturally and then we're taking exogenous hormones, or

1556
01:17:31,439 --> 01:17:33,479
Speaker 2: if you're not taking exogenous hormones and you just happen

1557
01:17:33,520 --> 01:17:36,759
Speaker 2: to identify as female and you compete in female athletics.

1558
01:17:36,800 --> 01:17:38,720
Speaker 2: I think is a totally different situation, and that's what

1559
01:17:38,760 --> 01:17:40,920
Speaker 2: people are reacting to. And I get I mean again,

1560
01:17:40,960 --> 01:17:43,799
Speaker 2: to be fair, this literally happened the whole Lea Thomas situation.

1561
01:17:43,880 --> 01:17:46,800
Speaker 2: We have sprinters and other situations that happen here in

1562
01:17:46,840 --> 01:17:48,960
Speaker 2: the United States. So people are primed to believe it

1563
01:17:49,000 --> 01:17:51,960
Speaker 2: because it's a reality that was created frankly, you know,

1564
01:17:52,000 --> 01:17:55,720
Speaker 2: by elite liberalism who thinks that this is somehow justifiable.

1565
01:17:55,800 --> 01:17:57,240
Speaker 3: So my line is quite simple.

1566
01:17:57,240 --> 01:17:59,000
Speaker 2: If it's natural, I mean, I guess you know, if

1567
01:17:59,040 --> 01:18:01,519
Speaker 2: it's natural, it's with the conversation. If it's not natural,

1568
01:18:01,560 --> 01:18:03,679
Speaker 2: then no, I don't think it should be in the conversation.

1569
01:18:03,680 --> 01:18:06,280
Speaker 2: I don't think exogenists hormone should be legal really period,

1570
01:18:06,360 --> 01:18:08,600
Speaker 2: you know, whenever it comes to elite athletics.

1571
01:18:08,680 --> 01:18:10,599
Speaker 3: Lance Armstrong is a good example of why.

1572
01:18:10,880 --> 01:18:13,360
Speaker 2: You know, you have somebody naturally who had a quote

1573
01:18:13,400 --> 01:18:17,599
Speaker 2: unquote advantage but then gets disqualified for taking exogenous substances. Now,

1574
01:18:17,600 --> 01:18:19,800
Speaker 2: Michael Phelps, you know, like what I forget exactly what

1575
01:18:19,880 --> 01:18:22,400
Speaker 2: his genetic mutation was, but it is something that is

1576
01:18:22,439 --> 01:18:25,479
Speaker 2: born of nature and so I just think it's quite

1577
01:18:25,680 --> 01:18:28,879
Speaker 2: a simple conversation, I guess within this and the reality

1578
01:18:29,040 --> 01:18:31,880
Speaker 2: is is that there was an entire thing created over

1579
01:18:31,920 --> 01:18:34,800
Speaker 2: the last decade of if let's say this woman was transgender,

1580
01:18:34,840 --> 01:18:36,839
Speaker 2: then I think the left would be like, yeah, that's

1581
01:18:36,880 --> 01:18:39,439
Speaker 2: completely fine, or they would ignore it. So in a sense,

1582
01:18:39,439 --> 01:18:41,400
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's necessarily the same controversy.

1583
01:18:42,439 --> 01:18:45,519
Speaker 1: Well, it's definitely not the same controversy, except that people

1584
01:18:45,520 --> 01:18:47,760
Speaker 1: lied about this person said she was transgender, to try

1585
01:18:47,800 --> 01:18:51,080
Speaker 1: to fit it into the same controversy.

1586
01:18:50,360 --> 01:18:52,680
Speaker 3: Right, yeah, idea. I don't think that was responsible.

1587
01:18:53,479 --> 01:18:58,839
Speaker 1: I mean, here's here's why it is related though, because

1588
01:18:58,880 --> 01:19:02,680
Speaker 1: you're talking about you know, innate characteristics and where is

1589
01:19:02,720 --> 01:19:07,400
Speaker 1: the line that you're going to draw between the two genders.

1590
01:19:08,040 --> 01:19:10,639
Speaker 1: And so I don't know that anyone would argue Maybe

1591
01:19:10,680 --> 01:19:13,040
Speaker 1: there's some person out there that would argue it, but

1592
01:19:13,040 --> 01:19:14,880
Speaker 1: I certainly went on I don't know anybody else on

1593
01:19:14,880 --> 01:19:17,000
Speaker 1: the left that would argue it would be enough to

1594
01:19:17,080 --> 01:19:19,559
Speaker 1: just say, you know, oh, I feel like I'm a

1595
01:19:19,600 --> 01:19:23,600
Speaker 1: woman now and you know, get to compete in female athletics.

1596
01:19:24,120 --> 01:19:27,200
Speaker 1: The conversation is about, okay, is there a process by

1597
01:19:27,240 --> 01:19:32,040
Speaker 1: which if you transition over a number of years, and

1598
01:19:32,320 --> 01:19:38,040
Speaker 1: you are, you know, suppressing your testosterone levels and you

1599
01:19:38,040 --> 01:19:40,679
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's been a certain period of time.

1600
01:19:41,800 --> 01:19:43,920
Speaker 1: Is there a time period in which, okay, now it's

1601
01:19:43,960 --> 01:19:46,720
Speaker 1: all right for you to compete or is it just

1602
01:19:46,840 --> 01:19:50,599
Speaker 1: if you, if you went through puberty as a biological male,

1603
01:19:50,720 --> 01:19:54,719
Speaker 1: do you have too much of a competitive advantage to ever,

1604
01:19:55,160 --> 01:19:58,320
Speaker 1: you know, forever to be fair for you to compete

1605
01:19:58,360 --> 01:20:01,600
Speaker 1: against women. And I do think that that's a difficult

1606
01:20:01,720 --> 01:20:04,519
Speaker 1: because it wouldn't be fair to just say no, that's it.

1607
01:20:04,560 --> 01:20:07,200
Speaker 4: You just can't compete, period, end of story. You're done, right.

1608
01:20:07,880 --> 01:20:10,400
Speaker 1: And on the other hand, I think that certain sports,

1609
01:20:10,720 --> 01:20:12,920
Speaker 1: like for example, I think what was it a was

1610
01:20:12,960 --> 01:20:15,519
Speaker 1: like a pool player or something who quit because she

1611
01:20:15,600 --> 01:20:19,040
Speaker 1: was up against a transgender Woman's like this has you

1612
01:20:19,040 --> 01:20:21,960
Speaker 1: your gender doesn't even confer any sort of advantage. So

1613
01:20:22,120 --> 01:20:25,639
Speaker 1: in certain sports, you know, yes, I think that it's

1614
01:20:25,800 --> 01:20:28,519
Speaker 1: like boxing, I think would be one of them where

1615
01:20:28,680 --> 01:20:31,680
Speaker 1: if you went through puberty as a biological mail, you

1616
01:20:31,800 --> 01:20:35,200
Speaker 1: probably have advantages that even if you've been taking you know,

1617
01:20:35,280 --> 01:20:38,559
Speaker 1: hormone suppression and medically transition for years, that you're not

1618
01:20:38,600 --> 01:20:40,920
Speaker 1: going to be able to just totally put in the

1619
01:20:41,040 --> 01:20:43,479
Speaker 1: in the background. But there are other sports where it

1620
01:20:43,520 --> 01:20:45,080
Speaker 1: may not make as much of a difference. That's why

1621
01:20:45,080 --> 01:20:48,479
Speaker 1: I'm saying it's a complicated question and also why it

1622
01:20:48,479 --> 01:20:51,280
Speaker 1: could vary support by sport, and why the fact that

1623
01:20:51,320 --> 01:20:56,840
Speaker 1: you have these natural, naturally occurring edge cases makes it

1624
01:20:56,920 --> 01:20:59,519
Speaker 1: really clear that it is not a black and white

1625
01:20:59,600 --> 01:21:03,760
Speaker 1: question that sex, even you know, just naturally occurring differences

1626
01:21:04,280 --> 01:21:06,800
Speaker 1: create these edge cases that actually, when you come down

1627
01:21:06,800 --> 01:21:09,679
Speaker 1: to it, makes it very difficult to draw that line

1628
01:21:09,880 --> 01:21:12,639
Speaker 1: of you know who goos in which category, et cetera.

1629
01:21:12,800 --> 01:21:14,519
Speaker 3: And yeah, but this is a yes butt question.

1630
01:21:14,640 --> 01:21:17,160
Speaker 2: This is a so yes, there are point zero zero

1631
01:21:17,240 --> 01:21:19,519
Speaker 2: zero zero one occurrences people like this in which it

1632
01:21:19,560 --> 01:21:22,840
Speaker 2: will manifest in elite athletics. But the puberty conversation, this,

1633
01:21:23,479 --> 01:21:26,080
Speaker 2: the data is incredibly clear. If you went through puberty

1634
01:21:26,120 --> 01:21:29,479
Speaker 2: as a biological mail, then the natural differences that you

1635
01:21:29,560 --> 01:21:32,640
Speaker 2: have are immense. There has been tons of research on this.

1636
01:21:32,760 --> 01:21:35,080
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter if you've been on hormone blockers for

1637
01:21:35,320 --> 01:21:37,840
Speaker 2: five years, just in terms of your muscle development, what

1638
01:21:37,880 --> 01:21:40,680
Speaker 2: the amount of testosterone that you had that could contribute

1639
01:21:40,720 --> 01:21:43,880
Speaker 2: to you know, growing larger, et CETERA friend of mine,

1640
01:21:43,880 --> 01:21:46,320
Speaker 2: Derek more Place More Dates, has done extensive research on

1641
01:21:46,360 --> 01:21:48,200
Speaker 2: this and put out a lot of videos that are

1642
01:21:48,240 --> 01:21:50,759
Speaker 2: on the subject. You can go and watch them for yourself.

1643
01:21:50,800 --> 01:21:53,080
Speaker 2: So I really just think it's totally different, Crystal. I

1644
01:21:53,120 --> 01:21:56,000
Speaker 2: mean we're talking here, I mean we're almost seems like, well,

1645
01:21:56,040 --> 01:21:58,439
Speaker 2: just because there's a point zero one percent edge case,

1646
01:21:58,479 --> 01:22:01,560
Speaker 2: that means that the modern fun nomenon of transgenderism and

1647
01:22:01,600 --> 01:22:04,160
Speaker 2: tried to ideology is somehow comparable.

1648
01:22:04,200 --> 01:22:05,679
Speaker 3: I don't think that's the case at all.

1649
01:22:06,240 --> 01:22:08,880
Speaker 2: And then that also, I mean when you say difficult question,

1650
01:22:09,320 --> 01:22:11,800
Speaker 2: then that even raises the idea that you can put

1651
01:22:11,840 --> 01:22:14,880
Speaker 2: puberty blockers in a child and not allow them to

1652
01:22:14,880 --> 01:22:18,000
Speaker 2: go through puberty in their natural gender, which I think

1653
01:22:18,080 --> 01:22:22,120
Speaker 2: is frankly disgusting and abhorrent. I would personally be forbanning

1654
01:22:22,160 --> 01:22:24,000
Speaker 2: it if I could. I don't know if the public

1655
01:22:24,040 --> 01:22:26,479
Speaker 2: would necessarily be on my side. I know that in

1656
01:22:26,520 --> 01:22:29,400
Speaker 2: Europe they've certainly gone in a different direction, So I

1657
01:22:29,400 --> 01:22:33,519
Speaker 2: don't think that this conversation is really related in any

1658
01:22:33,520 --> 01:22:36,839
Speaker 2: way to a natural phenomenon. And then the specific choice,

1659
01:22:37,080 --> 01:22:40,599
Speaker 2: frankly by parents who are deciding to plug children and

1660
01:22:40,680 --> 01:22:43,680
Speaker 2: chemically castrate them with chemicals. I mean, that is just

1661
01:22:43,720 --> 01:22:46,240
Speaker 2: not even in the same leak of conversation to me.

1662
01:22:47,120 --> 01:22:51,599
Speaker 1: So to stick with the conversation about the athletics. I mean,

1663
01:22:51,640 --> 01:22:53,599
Speaker 1: the other thing I would say is just this has

1664
01:22:53,680 --> 01:22:58,680
Speaker 1: made been made into such a top political issue on

1665
01:22:58,720 --> 01:23:02,360
Speaker 1: the right and it hasn't succeeded in terms of I

1666
01:23:02,400 --> 01:23:07,320
Speaker 1: think on the public opinion its succeeded. You know, if

1667
01:23:07,360 --> 01:23:09,920
Speaker 1: you pull people, majority will say yes, I don't think

1668
01:23:09,960 --> 01:23:14,280
Speaker 1: that transgender women should be able to participate in women's athletics.

1669
01:23:14,680 --> 01:23:17,080
Speaker 1: But there were a lot of candidates who really leaned

1670
01:23:17,120 --> 01:23:21,600
Speaker 1: into this topic in the midterms and it was not successful,

1671
01:23:21,840 --> 01:23:23,759
Speaker 1: and so it was sort of dropped for the agenda.

1672
01:23:23,800 --> 01:23:26,360
Speaker 1: Now it's been picked up, you know, because of this

1673
01:23:26,880 --> 01:23:31,320
Speaker 1: debate about this Olympic women's boxing match. It's been picked

1674
01:23:31,400 --> 01:23:34,400
Speaker 1: up by Jade Vance and Donald Trump, who very much

1675
01:23:34,479 --> 01:23:38,639
Speaker 1: do want to make it about transgender women, even though

1676
01:23:38,760 --> 01:23:41,640
Speaker 1: this woman is not transgender at all. So they've been

1677
01:23:41,720 --> 01:23:45,000
Speaker 1: using this rhetoric on the campaign trail. This is what

1678
01:23:45,040 --> 01:23:45,599
Speaker 1: do we have here?

1679
01:23:45,680 --> 01:23:47,639
Speaker 4: E three. Let's go ahead and run this thot.

1680
01:23:48,080 --> 01:23:48,840
Speaker 3: We think it's.

1681
01:23:48,720 --> 01:23:52,080
Speaker 6: Weird that the far left wants to allow biological males.

1682
01:23:52,360 --> 01:23:58,200
Speaker 3: To beat the living crap out of women in boxing, I.

1683
01:23:58,160 --> 01:23:59,240
Speaker 8: Used to use the bar bells.

1684
01:24:00,000 --> 01:24:01,520
Speaker 3: You have to do is look at the boxers.

1685
01:24:02,160 --> 01:24:06,120
Speaker 7: This young girl from Italy, a very a champion boxer.

1686
01:24:07,200 --> 01:24:09,200
Speaker 7: She got hit so hard she didn't know what the

1687
01:24:09,240 --> 01:24:14,200
Speaker 7: hell hit her. So person that transitioned he was a

1688
01:24:14,200 --> 01:24:16,280
Speaker 7: good he was a good mailboxer.

1689
01:24:16,960 --> 01:24:18,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, he was.

1690
01:24:18,080 --> 01:24:22,840
Speaker 7: A good mail boxer. And she didn't even go down.

1691
01:24:24,160 --> 01:24:26,920
Speaker 7: He hit it with two jams and she said, I'm out.

1692
01:24:27,240 --> 01:24:30,519
Speaker 1: So anyway, that's all just that's a lie. She did

1693
01:24:30,520 --> 01:24:33,439
Speaker 1: not transition. She was not a great mailboxer. She was

1694
01:24:33,479 --> 01:24:36,200
Speaker 1: born a woman. She has competed as a woman. There

1695
01:24:36,280 --> 01:24:38,519
Speaker 1: is this question about the tests. We don't know the details,

1696
01:24:38,560 --> 01:24:41,559
Speaker 1: but that is all a complete lie. So there's the

1697
01:24:41,560 --> 01:24:44,400
Speaker 1: political aspect of this. But yeah, I'll just say with

1698
01:24:44,439 --> 01:24:47,960
Speaker 1: regard to part of why I don't think the transgender

1699
01:24:47,960 --> 01:24:52,080
Speaker 1: sports debate has been the politically salient issue that Republicans

1700
01:24:52,120 --> 01:24:54,240
Speaker 1: at one point thought it would be, and why I

1701
01:24:54,280 --> 01:24:57,439
Speaker 1: take these two examples once again of like them sort

1702
01:24:57,439 --> 01:24:59,439
Speaker 1: of flailing around and not really knowing how to run

1703
01:24:59,439 --> 01:25:00,280
Speaker 1: against common Harris.

1704
01:25:00,320 --> 01:25:00,680
Speaker 4: At this point.

1705
01:25:00,680 --> 01:25:04,240
Speaker 1: In fact, I saw someone online who tweeted, like Donald

1706
01:25:04,240 --> 01:25:05,920
Speaker 1: Trump is losing, so they had to make up that

1707
01:25:05,960 --> 01:25:10,680
Speaker 1: this boxer is transgender. But why part of why I

1708
01:25:10,680 --> 01:25:13,479
Speaker 1: think that this has not been salient is because, like,

1709
01:25:14,120 --> 01:25:17,400
Speaker 1: look at the Olympics. Now, you know, Katie Ldeki is

1710
01:25:17,560 --> 01:25:22,120
Speaker 1: the dominant female swimmer, She's a woman. This looming threat

1711
01:25:22,200 --> 01:25:25,640
Speaker 1: of destroying female athletics, et cetera, et cetera, like it

1712
01:25:25,920 --> 01:25:28,599
Speaker 1: just hasn't come true. There have been a few cases,

1713
01:25:28,640 --> 01:25:31,280
Speaker 1: like Leah Thomas that I think have been, you know, nationally,

1714
01:25:31,400 --> 01:25:34,559
Speaker 1: very sensational. Lee Thomas isn't at the Olympics, right, So

1715
01:25:35,560 --> 01:25:40,879
Speaker 1: as a salient issue that impacts people frequently in their lives.

1716
01:25:41,160 --> 01:25:44,040
Speaker 1: You've got states that are passing bands on transgender athletes

1717
01:25:44,080 --> 01:25:46,680
Speaker 1: that don't that have like one transgender athlete in their

1718
01:25:46,840 --> 01:25:50,559
Speaker 1: entire state. So I think it's a much greater threat

1719
01:25:51,320 --> 01:25:53,880
Speaker 1: to women's athletics they sent that any of these people

1720
01:25:53,920 --> 01:25:57,240
Speaker 1: actually care about that at all. Outside of like creating

1721
01:25:57,240 --> 01:26:01,000
Speaker 1: this culture war issue, I think the greater threat is

1722
01:26:01,080 --> 01:26:05,760
Speaker 1: stoking these online lynch mobs to judge women by their

1723
01:26:05,800 --> 01:26:08,960
Speaker 1: appearance and hold up whether or not they meet the

1724
01:26:09,000 --> 01:26:11,519
Speaker 1: standard that they think that they should look like, and

1725
01:26:11,560 --> 01:26:13,720
Speaker 1: then smearing them internationally.

1726
01:26:13,760 --> 01:26:16,360
Speaker 2: Accordingly, Chrystl, the reason Leah Thomas is not in the

1727
01:26:16,400 --> 01:26:19,760
Speaker 2: Olympics is apparently because she lost in the World Aquatics

1728
01:26:19,800 --> 01:26:22,719
Speaker 2: Governing Court of our arbitration that would have not allowed

1729
01:26:22,720 --> 01:26:25,439
Speaker 2: her to compete. So it's not that she wasn't competing

1730
01:26:25,479 --> 01:26:28,120
Speaker 2: against Katie Leadecci. It's because she legally was not allowed

1731
01:26:28,120 --> 01:26:29,280
Speaker 2: to compete in the event.

1732
01:26:29,360 --> 01:26:30,519
Speaker 4: Would take her ass But.

1733
01:26:30,439 --> 01:26:31,479
Speaker 3: Anyway, maybe I don't know.

1734
01:26:31,640 --> 01:26:34,280
Speaker 1: I mean, look, she's got the top twenty fastest times

1735
01:26:34,560 --> 01:26:36,759
Speaker 1: in the fifteen hundred freestyle that have ever existed.

1736
01:26:36,880 --> 01:26:38,400
Speaker 3: Maybe she would, maybe she wouldn't.

1737
01:26:38,400 --> 01:26:41,400
Speaker 2: I think seeing her him whatever up on the dais

1738
01:26:41,400 --> 01:26:44,400
Speaker 2: frankly is disgusting and that is something that I deeply

1739
01:26:44,400 --> 01:26:47,000
Speaker 2: object to. Now on the transgender point, now, the reason

1740
01:26:47,080 --> 01:26:50,080
Speaker 2: I don't think that it was politically salient is because

1741
01:26:50,200 --> 01:26:52,360
Speaker 2: it was in the context of abortion in a vacuum.

1742
01:26:52,400 --> 01:26:55,960
Speaker 2: As you said, Poles dramatically agree that transgender athletes should

1743
01:26:56,000 --> 01:26:58,840
Speaker 2: not be allowed to compete in women's sports, and in

1744
01:26:58,880 --> 01:27:01,360
Speaker 2: some governing bodies where they have been allowed to compete,

1745
01:27:01,400 --> 01:27:04,400
Speaker 2: you had the grotesque outcome of people like Leah Thomas

1746
01:27:04,439 --> 01:27:08,120
Speaker 2: and weightlifters and others that are competing against women. You've

1747
01:27:08,120 --> 01:27:10,679
Speaker 2: had athletes like Riley Gaines and others who have spoken

1748
01:27:10,680 --> 01:27:12,960
Speaker 2: out about this and, by the way, face significant social

1749
01:27:12,960 --> 01:27:14,599
Speaker 2: consequences as a result of that.

1750
01:27:15,240 --> 01:27:16,400
Speaker 3: In their university.

1751
01:27:16,920 --> 01:27:19,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, after she quit, you know, and had to make

1752
01:27:19,320 --> 01:27:21,200
Speaker 2: this hor By the way, I don't recommend making this

1753
01:27:21,240 --> 01:27:23,400
Speaker 2: your whole identity. You know, there's a reason that I

1754
01:27:23,479 --> 01:27:25,400
Speaker 2: conduct myself the way that I do. But if forced

1755
01:27:25,400 --> 01:27:28,360
Speaker 2: to discuss, you know, certainly will the vast majority of

1756
01:27:28,360 --> 01:27:31,360
Speaker 2: the American public agrees on this issue. And by forcing

1757
01:27:31,439 --> 01:27:34,559
Speaker 2: you know, people like Leah Thomas and others, you just

1758
01:27:34,600 --> 01:27:38,000
Speaker 2: frankly create this grotesque spectacle which sets back, as I

1759
01:27:38,040 --> 01:27:41,439
Speaker 2: have told my gay friends, the quote unquote gay marriage

1760
01:27:41,439 --> 01:27:44,200
Speaker 2: polling numbers that we have seen within the GOP. Now,

1761
01:27:44,200 --> 01:27:46,320
Speaker 2: abortion is always going to be a lot more salient issue.

1762
01:27:46,400 --> 01:27:48,880
Speaker 2: Now after that's solved, now maybe we can tackle the

1763
01:27:48,920 --> 01:27:51,120
Speaker 2: puberty debate. And I think it's going to be very

1764
01:27:51,160 --> 01:27:54,720
Speaker 2: different on the polling and political salience with abortion off

1765
01:27:54,720 --> 01:27:56,200
Speaker 2: the table. But of course, I mean there's a ton

1766
01:27:56,280 --> 01:27:58,640
Speaker 2: more women who exist in America, so there's going to

1767
01:27:58,640 --> 01:28:02,360
Speaker 2: be a lot more important. But in a vacuum, I

1768
01:28:02,360 --> 01:28:04,080
Speaker 2: don't think it's nearly as unpopular as.

1769
01:28:04,000 --> 01:28:05,080
Speaker 3: You're laying out.

1770
01:28:05,560 --> 01:28:08,320
Speaker 1: I didn't say it was unpopular. I'm saying that people

1771
01:28:08,320 --> 01:28:10,599
Speaker 1: don't care that much, Like they don't, you know.

1772
01:28:10,520 --> 01:28:13,400
Speaker 3: They're so you shouldn't care, don't particularly care that much.

1773
01:28:13,439 --> 01:28:15,439
Speaker 4: But there's so few instances. And that's that's the thing.

1774
01:28:15,479 --> 01:28:17,960
Speaker 1: That's what I'm trying to get at, Sager, is look

1775
01:28:17,960 --> 01:28:21,040
Speaker 1: at the Olympics. Look at the female start Shikari Richardson,

1776
01:28:21,560 --> 01:28:25,920
Speaker 1: Simone Biles, Katie Ladeki, Like, none of these people are

1777
01:28:25,920 --> 01:28:30,240
Speaker 1: threatened by transgender athletes. There was there's one. There is,

1778
01:28:30,280 --> 01:28:33,439
Speaker 1: just through another wrinkle is there actually is one self

1779
01:28:33,479 --> 01:28:39,920
Speaker 1: identifying transgender male who is boxing but hasn't taken hormones

1780
01:28:39,960 --> 01:28:45,040
Speaker 1: or whatever and just changed their pronouns and is boxing

1781
01:28:45,160 --> 01:28:47,360
Speaker 1: as a woman. I think I'm getting these details right,

1782
01:28:47,360 --> 01:28:51,680
Speaker 1: But there's very few transgender athletes, even at the Olympics.

1783
01:28:52,040 --> 01:28:54,400
Speaker 1: So again my point is not that this, you know,

1784
01:28:55,040 --> 01:28:58,880
Speaker 1: I actually think probably the most fair thing, if you

1785
01:28:59,000 --> 01:29:04,280
Speaker 1: had sufficient number, is to have separate categories for transgender athletes.

1786
01:29:04,320 --> 01:29:07,519
Speaker 1: But I think that's practically difficult because the few numbers.

1787
01:29:07,920 --> 01:29:09,400
Speaker 1: Because I agree with you that I think if you

1788
01:29:09,439 --> 01:29:12,439
Speaker 1: go through puberty as a biological male. It does convert

1789
01:29:12,560 --> 01:29:15,680
Speaker 1: certain advantages that even if you've been taking hormone, you know,

1790
01:29:15,800 --> 01:29:18,879
Speaker 1: suppressants for many years, are not going to just magically

1791
01:29:18,920 --> 01:29:19,439
Speaker 1: go away.

1792
01:29:19,960 --> 01:29:20,840
Speaker 4: I just subject to.

1793
01:29:20,800 --> 01:29:25,080
Speaker 1: This being such a like fixation and focus and the

1794
01:29:25,400 --> 01:29:29,639
Speaker 1: demonization of you know, this boxer or now apparently anyone

1795
01:29:29,640 --> 01:29:31,640
Speaker 1: who doesn't there's another boxer by the way, who's in

1796
01:29:31,680 --> 01:29:35,000
Speaker 1: the same category, anyone who doesn't fit this ideal. I

1797
01:29:35,120 --> 01:29:37,360
Speaker 1: just find that to be so gross, and I do

1798
01:29:37,439 --> 01:29:39,920
Speaker 1: take it kind of personally, just because you know, I'm

1799
01:29:39,960 --> 01:29:42,400
Speaker 1: a former athlete. I wasn't going to the Olympics, but

1800
01:29:42,439 --> 01:29:43,960
Speaker 1: I was a Division one swimmer. I was a big

1801
01:29:44,000 --> 01:29:48,760
Speaker 1: part of my identity. And you know, when you are

1802
01:29:49,040 --> 01:29:52,680
Speaker 1: a high level athlete, oftentimes as a woman, you do

1803
01:29:52,760 --> 01:29:55,479
Speaker 1: have some characteristics that are not traditionally feminine. If you

1804
01:29:55,479 --> 01:29:58,920
Speaker 1: look at the swimmers right, really broad shoulders, flat chests,

1805
01:29:58,960 --> 01:30:02,479
Speaker 1: because you're more aeroors dynamic, big lats. I've always been

1806
01:30:02,520 --> 01:30:04,920
Speaker 1: able to put on a lot more muscle than other women.

1807
01:30:05,439 --> 01:30:08,040
Speaker 1: And so if you're creating a situation where now they're

1808
01:30:08,040 --> 01:30:10,599
Speaker 1: these like online Lynch model of people judging whether you're

1809
01:30:10,800 --> 01:30:13,800
Speaker 1: feminine enough, like they did to cast er Somnia Duti

1810
01:30:13,920 --> 01:30:18,439
Speaker 1: chand Ammani Khalif. Now, to me, that's far more damaging

1811
01:30:18,560 --> 01:30:23,200
Speaker 1: to women's athletics than these you know, very few cases

1812
01:30:23,680 --> 01:30:26,920
Speaker 1: of transgender athletes that I also by the like I said,

1813
01:30:26,960 --> 01:30:27,479
Speaker 1: I also have.

1814
01:30:27,520 --> 01:30:29,080
Speaker 4: Issues with and have questions about.

1815
01:30:29,560 --> 01:30:32,639
Speaker 1: But you know, it's sort of they're sort of killing

1816
01:30:32,680 --> 01:30:35,800
Speaker 1: the uh They're they're doing more damage to the thing

1817
01:30:35,840 --> 01:30:39,080
Speaker 1: that they're claiming to protect. And I do wonder what

1818
01:30:39,120 --> 01:30:40,880
Speaker 1: you make of like the Trump comments where he just

1819
01:30:40,920 --> 01:30:42,640
Speaker 1: like lies about her. I mean, do you think that

1820
01:30:42,720 --> 01:30:46,400
Speaker 1: this is a smart political direction for Trump and Jade

1821
01:30:46,439 --> 01:30:50,360
Speaker 1: Vance to go in embracing this culture war question over the.

1822
01:30:50,280 --> 01:30:51,760
Speaker 3: Audience people who really care.

1823
01:30:51,840 --> 01:30:54,120
Speaker 2: I mean, the American people are on their side regardless

1824
01:30:54,120 --> 01:30:55,880
Speaker 2: of whether this is true or not. If it was

1825
01:30:55,920 --> 01:30:58,760
Speaker 2: a transgender athlete, then yeah, I mean most people. I look,

1826
01:30:58,840 --> 01:31:01,400
Speaker 2: it is not all that politically salient. Like I said,

1827
01:31:01,479 --> 01:31:04,360
Speaker 2: it forced to discuss. I'll lay out you know, what

1828
01:31:04,400 --> 01:31:06,080
Speaker 2: I think is a pretty clear case of why this

1829
01:31:06,200 --> 01:31:08,919
Speaker 2: is gross. I don't think that is nearly as damaging

1830
01:31:09,160 --> 01:31:12,439
Speaker 2: that the left created reality where women are literally or

1831
01:31:12,479 --> 01:31:15,479
Speaker 2: men are literally allowed to compete in women's sports biological men.

1832
01:31:15,720 --> 01:31:18,040
Speaker 2: So then you can't get upset when people are like, hey,

1833
01:31:18,080 --> 01:31:19,800
Speaker 2: is this a biological man or not?

1834
01:31:19,960 --> 01:31:21,160
Speaker 3: And then if they were, and.

1835
01:31:21,240 --> 01:31:23,519
Speaker 4: When the information is there and you're just flat on looks.

1836
01:31:23,720 --> 01:31:26,400
Speaker 2: But if it was a biological man, people would say, oh,

1837
01:31:26,479 --> 01:31:29,120
Speaker 2: what a great celebration you know that this is an

1838
01:31:29,200 --> 01:31:32,920
Speaker 2: amazing outcome of you know, transgender equality. It's like you

1839
01:31:32,920 --> 01:31:36,680
Speaker 2: can't simultaneously cheer on like bearded guys in dresses and

1840
01:31:36,720 --> 01:31:39,160
Speaker 2: then say like, oh, we shouldn't be able to criticize

1841
01:31:39,479 --> 01:31:41,800
Speaker 2: the whatever, like female aesthetics. I mean, this is a

1842
01:31:41,840 --> 01:31:46,040
Speaker 2: reality that was created literally by modern liberalism, post O

1843
01:31:46,160 --> 01:31:48,840
Speaker 2: Burger felt, which I think was a massive mistake as

1844
01:31:48,880 --> 01:31:51,800
Speaker 2: we look at the political polling that has now happened

1845
01:31:51,960 --> 01:31:54,400
Speaker 2: both on gay marriage and on the transgender is an issue.

1846
01:31:54,439 --> 01:31:57,439
Speaker 2: So I just certainly I almost feel frankly like a

1847
01:31:57,439 --> 01:32:00,280
Speaker 2: gas lit on this bit on little this conversation, because

1848
01:32:00,320 --> 01:32:03,400
Speaker 2: if you create an entire reality where everything is questionable

1849
01:32:03,479 --> 01:32:05,040
Speaker 2: and then people can't ask questions.

1850
01:32:06,680 --> 01:32:10,200
Speaker 1: But there was, it was readily apparent, it was readily

1851
01:32:10,200 --> 01:32:12,880
Speaker 1: available information that this is not a transferent person. How

1852
01:32:12,920 --> 01:32:14,920
Speaker 1: can I just don't think it's fair to just give

1853
01:32:14,960 --> 01:32:17,840
Speaker 1: a path to these big accounts and JK Roll and

1854
01:32:17,880 --> 01:32:20,479
Speaker 1: the freaking former president of the United States, like, well,

1855
01:32:20,520 --> 01:32:23,639
Speaker 1: it's not his fault because somebody else, you know, did

1856
01:32:23,680 --> 01:32:26,760
Speaker 1: something that he didn't like. Once the facts exist out there,

1857
01:32:27,200 --> 01:32:30,320
Speaker 1: you are able to you know, absorb them and read

1858
01:32:30,400 --> 01:32:33,200
Speaker 1: articles about what's going on and assesss it accurately and

1859
01:32:33,240 --> 01:32:35,519
Speaker 1: have empathy for this person and not just go on

1860
01:32:35,600 --> 01:32:38,800
Speaker 1: this nasty like demonization kick and make her into some

1861
01:32:38,840 --> 01:32:42,680
Speaker 1: sort of political fodder. So I think just like excusing

1862
01:32:42,720 --> 01:32:44,840
Speaker 1: them as well, it's not really their fault. I find

1863
01:32:44,880 --> 01:32:48,559
Speaker 1: that preposterous. But the last thing, just to tie up,

1864
01:32:48,600 --> 01:32:51,680
Speaker 1: like what we know about this and the reaction from

1865
01:32:51,760 --> 01:32:55,880
Speaker 1: the Italian boxer who you know, I going back and

1866
01:32:55,880 --> 01:32:59,200
Speaker 1: reading her initial comments I know a lot of people,

1867
01:32:59,200 --> 01:33:01,320
Speaker 1: and you were saying, like you really blame her for service, right.

1868
01:33:02,200 --> 01:33:03,160
Speaker 4: I don't know that that's.

1869
01:33:02,960 --> 01:33:05,040
Speaker 1: Really fair because all she said is just like she'd

1870
01:33:05,040 --> 01:33:07,240
Speaker 1: never been hit that hard. She didn't say that Amani

1871
01:33:07,320 --> 01:33:08,880
Speaker 1: shouldn't be able to fight, or she was a man

1872
01:33:09,000 --> 01:33:11,080
Speaker 1: or whatever. So I don't know if it's really fair

1873
01:33:11,160 --> 01:33:12,800
Speaker 1: to put it all on her. But in any case,

1874
01:33:13,520 --> 01:33:18,240
Speaker 1: we have her final comments where she was talking about

1875
01:33:18,280 --> 01:33:22,000
Speaker 1: how she would actually apologize to Amani. She says, it

1876
01:33:22,040 --> 01:33:24,240
Speaker 1: wasn't something I intended to do. Actually, I want to

1877
01:33:24,240 --> 01:33:26,840
Speaker 1: apologize her and everyone else. I was angry because my

1878
01:33:26,920 --> 01:33:29,559
Speaker 1: Olympics had gone up in smoke. She added, she bet

1879
01:33:29,800 --> 01:33:34,200
Speaker 1: cahlif again she would embrace her. So, in any case,

1880
01:33:34,560 --> 01:33:38,120
Speaker 1: just kind of a wild situation that really touched a

1881
01:33:38,160 --> 01:33:40,760
Speaker 1: cultural nerve and has now been embraced by the former

1882
01:33:40,800 --> 01:33:42,639
Speaker 1: president of the United States, in spite of the fact

1883
01:33:42,640 --> 01:33:45,400
Speaker 1: that some of the very basics of the situation have

1884
01:33:45,479 --> 01:33:46,880
Speaker 1: been nothing but lies in innuendo.

1885
01:33:47,200 --> 01:33:50,040
Speaker 2: All right, well, let's see what the developments are. Maybe

1886
01:33:50,080 --> 01:33:52,840
Speaker 2: a gender test. I believe that people are demanding she'd

1887
01:33:52,840 --> 01:33:55,920
Speaker 2: take a gender test, or so maybe we'll say, perhaps

1888
01:33:55,920 --> 01:33:56,519
Speaker 2: we'll get the truth.

1889
01:33:56,560 --> 01:33:56,960
Speaker 3: I don't know.

1890
01:33:58,080 --> 01:33:59,640
Speaker 2: Did they have to pass the gender test to even

1891
01:33:59,680 --> 01:34:02,760
Speaker 2: compete in the IOC. This is where I'm confused, this

1892
01:34:02,920 --> 01:34:05,640
Speaker 2: governing body. Yeah, like, what are the rules? What do

1893
01:34:05,720 --> 01:34:06,439
Speaker 2: they even say?

1894
01:34:07,800 --> 01:34:11,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think that the Olympic Committee, as best

1895
01:34:11,479 --> 01:34:16,400
Speaker 1: as I was able to understand, they don't conduct chromosomal tests.

1896
01:34:16,439 --> 01:34:20,839
Speaker 1: And they so typically again this is my layman's understanding

1897
01:34:20,880 --> 01:34:23,880
Speaker 1: of doing one day of research. Yes, typically, I believe

1898
01:34:23,880 --> 01:34:28,200
Speaker 1: they allow these various sports governing bodies to sort of

1899
01:34:28,280 --> 01:34:33,840
Speaker 1: legislate themselves. So previously they had been relying on this

1900
01:34:33,960 --> 01:34:35,640
Speaker 1: International Boxing Association.

1901
01:34:36,080 --> 01:34:38,040
Speaker 4: However, they were all kinds.

1902
01:34:38,200 --> 01:34:41,760
Speaker 1: It was legitimately very sketchy organization and like you know,

1903
01:34:41,840 --> 01:34:45,360
Speaker 1: tied into the drug trade and like you know, Russian mobsters.

1904
01:34:45,439 --> 01:34:46,639
Speaker 4: Whatever. It was kind of a mess.

1905
01:34:46,680 --> 01:34:50,680
Speaker 1: So they banned them from allying with them, and the

1906
01:34:50,720 --> 01:34:54,920
Speaker 1: Olympic Committee themselves put together a temporary committee.

1907
01:34:54,479 --> 01:34:56,680
Speaker 4: To adjudicate these types of questions.

1908
01:34:56,920 --> 01:34:59,080
Speaker 1: From my reading, it was not entirely clear to me

1909
01:34:59,640 --> 01:35:03,280
Speaker 1: what they based their assessments on. The thing that they

1910
01:35:03,320 --> 01:35:06,040
Speaker 1: said is that she was born a woman. She's you know,

1911
01:35:06,120 --> 01:35:08,800
Speaker 1: woman on our driver's license, woman on our passport, et cetera.

1912
01:35:09,320 --> 01:35:11,720
Speaker 1: And so I don't know if I don't think that

1913
01:35:11,800 --> 01:35:14,400
Speaker 1: they have like a testosterone limit, and I don't know

1914
01:35:14,439 --> 01:35:16,960
Speaker 1: that they conducted these same sort of uh, you know,

1915
01:35:17,040 --> 01:35:22,880
Speaker 1: potential chromosomal tests now in track and field where castor sima,

1916
01:35:22,880 --> 01:35:26,760
Speaker 1: where this was relevant for castor semenia, they decided that

1917
01:35:26,880 --> 01:35:31,000
Speaker 1: for certain events, not all events, but for certain events,

1918
01:35:31,520 --> 01:35:36,560
Speaker 1: high levels of testosterone were a sufficient advantage that they regulate.

1919
01:35:36,800 --> 01:35:41,360
Speaker 1: They set a maximum bar for what your testosterone levels

1920
01:35:41,439 --> 01:35:44,880
Speaker 1: can be even if you're in all other respects, you know,

1921
01:35:44,960 --> 01:35:48,559
Speaker 1: present as a female, so cast or semenia. In order

1922
01:35:48,600 --> 01:35:50,920
Speaker 1: to compete in some of her top events, was forced

1923
01:35:50,960 --> 01:35:55,120
Speaker 1: to take testosterone suppressants in order to be able to compete.

1924
01:35:55,160 --> 01:35:57,320
Speaker 1: And she's written about how it really it made her

1925
01:35:57,360 --> 01:35:59,839
Speaker 1: really sick and she hated doing it. Ultimately, she stopped

1926
01:36:00,560 --> 01:36:05,640
Speaker 1: taking those testosterone suppressants. So different sports, it seems like,

1927
01:36:05,720 --> 01:36:09,600
Speaker 1: have different criteria. And I guess one question I have

1928
01:36:09,680 --> 01:36:11,840
Speaker 1: for you is, Okay, so let's say that she does

1929
01:36:11,960 --> 01:36:17,679
Speaker 1: have DSD and she does have x Y chromosome, even

1930
01:36:17,720 --> 01:36:21,919
Speaker 1: though you know she you know, physically presented as a female.

1931
01:36:22,720 --> 01:36:24,840
Speaker 4: Do you think that she should compete as a woman

1932
01:36:25,160 --> 01:36:25,360
Speaker 4: or not.

1933
01:36:25,960 --> 01:36:27,639
Speaker 3: I don't think so. I just think that the risk

1934
01:36:27,720 --> 01:36:29,120
Speaker 3: is too high for people in boxing.

1935
01:36:29,160 --> 01:36:31,400
Speaker 2: Whenever you're literally hitting somebody else in the head, that's

1936
01:36:31,560 --> 01:36:34,559
Speaker 2: that's the red line, you know, run. I would switch

1937
01:36:34,600 --> 01:36:37,479
Speaker 2: it from track and field to anything where you could

1938
01:36:37,479 --> 01:36:38,559
Speaker 2: potentially harm somebody.

1939
01:36:39,479 --> 01:36:42,000
Speaker 1: I actually agree with that, Yeah, But then I was

1940
01:36:42,040 --> 01:36:43,840
Speaker 1: thinking about if.

1941
01:36:43,720 --> 01:36:44,519
Speaker 4: You reverse it.

1942
01:36:45,160 --> 01:36:48,160
Speaker 1: Let's say you have a someone who presents as a

1943
01:36:48,200 --> 01:36:53,360
Speaker 1: male but who has so they have, you know, the

1944
01:36:53,400 --> 01:36:58,600
Speaker 1: male bits externally, but they have XX chromosome.

1945
01:36:59,760 --> 01:37:01,480
Speaker 4: Do that get to compete as a female?

1946
01:37:01,800 --> 01:37:04,000
Speaker 3: Is that possible? I don't think.

1947
01:37:05,280 --> 01:37:05,920
Speaker 4: I'm not sure.

1948
01:37:06,200 --> 01:37:11,080
Speaker 1: I know that there are thirty different like biologies, there

1949
01:37:11,080 --> 01:37:13,240
Speaker 1: are thirty different ways of being intersext, So is that

1950
01:37:13,320 --> 01:37:15,719
Speaker 1: one of them. I can't say I'm one hundred percent sure.

1951
01:37:16,160 --> 01:37:18,920
Speaker 1: But you know, again, that's why I think it very

1952
01:37:18,960 --> 01:37:20,959
Speaker 1: sports to sport. I think it's very difficult.

1953
01:37:21,000 --> 01:37:21,240
Speaker 4: I do.

1954
01:37:21,400 --> 01:37:25,080
Speaker 1: I tend to think I disagree with the castor subnian decision.

1955
01:37:25,160 --> 01:37:28,439
Speaker 1: I think her naturally high levels of testosterone. I think

1956
01:37:28,479 --> 01:37:30,559
Speaker 1: that's just a natural genetic advantage, in the same way

1957
01:37:30,600 --> 01:37:33,439
Speaker 1: that many athletes have natural genetic advantages and no one's

1958
01:37:33,479 --> 01:37:35,800
Speaker 1: getting hurt. To your point, but I agree with your

1959
01:37:35,800 --> 01:37:40,040
Speaker 1: point that in fighting, that's why you have different weight categories.

1960
01:37:40,120 --> 01:37:43,120
Speaker 1: There's an added level of we need to protect these,

1961
01:37:43,320 --> 01:37:45,880
Speaker 1: you know, individuals as much as we can, and so

1962
01:37:46,320 --> 01:37:48,160
Speaker 1: you know, an advantage like if you have an elevated

1963
01:37:48,200 --> 01:37:51,519
Speaker 1: level of testosterone, which is probably going to occur more often,

1964
01:37:51,680 --> 01:37:53,080
Speaker 1: like I bet if you tested a lot of these

1965
01:37:53,120 --> 01:37:55,800
Speaker 1: women competing in Olympic boxing, like they're probably at the

1966
01:37:55,880 --> 01:37:57,800
Speaker 1: high end of normal or beyond the high range of

1967
01:37:57,800 --> 01:38:00,920
Speaker 1: normal because it is an advantage there. So you know,

1968
01:38:01,040 --> 01:38:03,280
Speaker 1: maybe you have an addition to the weight classes, maybe

1969
01:38:03,280 --> 01:38:06,200
Speaker 1: you have like a high testosterone class. Maybe that's the

1970
01:38:06,280 --> 01:38:07,120
Speaker 1: most fair thing to do.

1971
01:38:07,240 --> 01:38:10,240
Speaker 2: I know, at least amongst men, there's like physiological doses

1972
01:38:10,280 --> 01:38:13,519
Speaker 2: and there's like super physiological So somebody who is far

1973
01:38:13,560 --> 01:38:15,760
Speaker 2: more well versed in hormones can weigh in.

1974
01:38:15,800 --> 01:38:15,960
Speaker 6: Here.

1975
01:38:16,000 --> 01:38:18,120
Speaker 3: We do have Jordan Sheridan standing by the crystal, so

1976
01:38:18,120 --> 01:38:18,880
Speaker 3: we should get to them.

1977
01:38:19,120 --> 01:38:20,120
Speaker 4: All right, let's get to that.

1978
01:38:22,920 --> 01:38:26,240
Speaker 1: So, as you may recall, an entire city, Flint, Michigan,

1979
01:38:26,680 --> 01:38:30,240
Speaker 1: was poisoned, and much of the media has forgotten about

1980
01:38:30,280 --> 01:38:32,880
Speaker 1: that and let many of the politicians who had their

1981
01:38:32,880 --> 01:38:34,040
Speaker 1: hands all over.

1982
01:38:33,920 --> 01:38:35,879
Speaker 4: This horrific act off the hook.

1983
01:38:36,160 --> 01:38:39,240
Speaker 1: But one person who never did is journalist Jordan Cheriton,

1984
01:38:39,560 --> 01:38:42,719
Speaker 1: founder of Status Ku, an author of an incredibly important

1985
01:38:42,760 --> 01:38:46,320
Speaker 1: and revelatory new book about the Flint water cover up

1986
01:38:46,479 --> 01:38:49,400
Speaker 1: called We the Poisoned, with a forward I should add

1987
01:38:49,400 --> 01:38:50,240
Speaker 1: by Aaron Brockovich.

1988
01:38:50,320 --> 01:38:53,000
Speaker 4: Welcome, Jordan, Hey, thank you for having me. Yeah, it's

1989
01:38:53,040 --> 01:38:53,559
Speaker 4: our pleasure.

1990
01:38:54,360 --> 01:38:59,640
Speaker 1: So talk to us about why this crisis still continues

1991
01:38:59,680 --> 01:39:03,439
Speaker 1: to be so relevant to Americans and not just in Flint.

1992
01:39:03,479 --> 01:39:03,919
Speaker 4: Michigan.

1993
01:39:04,000 --> 01:39:06,280
Speaker 1: But you know, we see echoes of this in crises

1994
01:39:06,320 --> 01:39:08,479
Speaker 1: like that in East Palestine, Ohio.

1995
01:39:10,600 --> 01:39:15,960
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, red, white, progressive, conservative water is one

1996
01:39:15,960 --> 01:39:18,679
Speaker 9: thing we could agree about. Ten years later, the water

1997
01:39:19,000 --> 01:39:23,400
Speaker 9: is still contaminated in Flint. Residents are still posting pictures

1998
01:39:23,800 --> 01:39:27,880
Speaker 9: of brown water, and the playbook for this cover up

1999
01:39:28,000 --> 01:39:32,200
Speaker 9: is now being copied in other communities like East Palestine,

2000
01:39:32,880 --> 01:39:37,360
Speaker 9: their situations in Kalamazoo, Michigan, East Chicago, Indiana. I mean,

2001
01:39:37,520 --> 01:39:39,439
Speaker 9: it would take too long to name other cities with

2002
01:39:40,080 --> 01:39:45,960
Speaker 9: water contamination where the federal government, in coordination with state officials,

2003
01:39:46,360 --> 01:39:50,280
Speaker 9: are basically just kind of checking some boxes, doing some testing,

2004
01:39:50,520 --> 01:39:55,960
Speaker 9: cherry picking data to claim everything's fine. Meanwhile, residents are

2005
01:39:56,240 --> 01:40:00,360
Speaker 9: receiving dirty or smelly water, getting rashes, and in the

2006
01:40:00,360 --> 01:40:04,360
Speaker 9: case of Flint, cancer is surging. Some cancers are up

2007
01:40:04,400 --> 01:40:08,639
Speaker 9: three hundred to five hundred percent. And meanwhile, you know,

2008
01:40:08,960 --> 01:40:12,000
Speaker 9: nobody is being held accountable. And my book kind of

2009
01:40:12,040 --> 01:40:15,840
Speaker 9: reveals a massive cover up. I mean, we're talking the

2010
01:40:15,840 --> 01:40:19,920
Speaker 9: federal government, the state government, local government, and Wall Street

2011
01:40:20,200 --> 01:40:23,559
Speaker 9: all kind of together. That is still ongoing. Reminder, no

2012
01:40:23,600 --> 01:40:26,320
Speaker 9: one has been criminally convicted.

2013
01:40:27,240 --> 01:40:28,919
Speaker 3: So Jordan, we have some passages.

2014
01:40:28,960 --> 01:40:31,360
Speaker 2: To put this up there on the screen that you

2015
01:40:32,000 --> 01:40:35,160
Speaker 2: pulled out for us, maybe you can explain a little

2016
01:40:35,200 --> 01:40:37,559
Speaker 2: bit about what's in front of us about Todd Flood,

2017
01:40:37,800 --> 01:40:39,759
Speaker 2: some of the quotes that you were able to unveil.

2018
01:40:41,160 --> 01:40:44,640
Speaker 9: Yeah, So Todd Flood was a special prosecutor for the investigation,

2019
01:40:44,920 --> 01:40:47,680
Speaker 9: kind of like Robert Muller on a local level, and

2020
01:40:47,760 --> 01:40:52,160
Speaker 9: he was interviewing Richard Baird. Think Richard Baird is kind

2021
01:40:52,160 --> 01:40:55,760
Speaker 9: of like Tony Soprano's consiglieri. He was the right hand

2022
01:40:55,840 --> 01:41:00,240
Speaker 9: man for former Governor Rick Snyder, known as his fixer.

2023
01:41:00,800 --> 01:41:03,800
Speaker 9: And my reporting which is shown in the book indicates

2024
01:41:03,840 --> 01:41:07,679
Speaker 9: that Richard Baird, apparently with the governor's knowledge, was going

2025
01:41:07,720 --> 01:41:12,280
Speaker 9: around throughout Flint and offering sick residents who happened to

2026
01:41:12,320 --> 01:41:19,679
Speaker 9: be getting media attention deals payments from the state government

2027
01:41:20,360 --> 01:41:22,640
Speaker 9: with strings attached that you can't say anything and you

2028
01:41:22,680 --> 01:41:25,520
Speaker 9: can't say who's paying for it. And in this passage,

2029
01:41:26,320 --> 01:41:30,759
Speaker 9: the criminal prosecutor caught when that a resident suddenly got

2030
01:41:31,160 --> 01:41:35,559
Speaker 9: enough money to replace her busted service lines, the water

2031
01:41:35,760 --> 01:41:38,080
Speaker 9: pipes that deliver water into the home they were damaged

2032
01:41:38,080 --> 01:41:41,920
Speaker 9: by the Flint River water cash from the state and

2033
01:41:42,240 --> 01:41:45,080
Speaker 9: he asked the governor's right hand man about that, do

2034
01:41:45,160 --> 01:41:48,320
Speaker 9: you know anything about this cash to this resident?

2035
01:41:48,680 --> 01:41:51,080
Speaker 8: And he simply answered, I guess I have to answer that.

2036
01:41:52,400 --> 01:41:55,439
Speaker 4: Wow, what are the echoes that you see?

2037
01:41:55,479 --> 01:41:58,240
Speaker 1: What is the kind of the playbook that was utilized

2038
01:41:58,280 --> 01:42:00,719
Speaker 1: in Flint that is now being utilized in other places

2039
01:42:00,760 --> 01:42:03,080
Speaker 1: like East Palestine.

2040
01:42:03,479 --> 01:42:07,120
Speaker 9: Yeah, so in Flint, essentially they told you don't believe

2041
01:42:07,160 --> 01:42:10,479
Speaker 9: your lying skin, your ashes, don't believe your lying eyes.

2042
01:42:10,520 --> 01:42:13,880
Speaker 9: The brown water, it's just, you know, it's just an

2043
01:42:13,920 --> 01:42:17,320
Speaker 9: aesthetic thing, it's not a health thing. They told the

2044
01:42:17,360 --> 01:42:21,840
Speaker 9: residents were working on it, it's safe. The EPA was

2045
01:42:21,880 --> 01:42:25,000
Speaker 9: getting complaints but didn't actually step in to take over,

2046
01:42:25,120 --> 01:42:27,160
Speaker 9: which they do have the legal right to do in

2047
01:42:27,240 --> 01:42:31,439
Speaker 9: a case of an emergency. And then it was residents

2048
01:42:31,479 --> 01:42:36,920
Speaker 9: and activists, not politicians, streaming and literally conduct doing their

2049
01:42:36,960 --> 01:42:40,800
Speaker 9: own testing. They secured independent researchers to help them test

2050
01:42:41,120 --> 01:42:43,519
Speaker 9: that they blew the liddle up the scandal. Same thing

2051
01:42:43,640 --> 01:42:46,920
Speaker 9: is going on in East Palestine, for example, the EPA

2052
01:42:47,080 --> 01:42:50,680
Speaker 9: is doing testing even though they've acknowledged that their equipment

2053
01:42:50,760 --> 01:42:54,400
Speaker 9: cannot find certain levels of contamination, and they're saying, we're

2054
01:42:54,439 --> 01:42:58,280
Speaker 9: not finding certain contaminants. Meanwhile, residents that I speak with

2055
01:42:58,360 --> 01:43:01,559
Speaker 9: have shown me also they're getting rashes. I mean, residents

2056
01:43:01,560 --> 01:43:05,240
Speaker 9: are having seizures and strokes. In East Palestine. They're still

2057
01:43:05,400 --> 01:43:10,600
Speaker 9: passing blood, some of them through their vowels, through urinating.

2058
01:43:11,160 --> 01:43:13,200
Speaker 9: I got sick of these palicine. I mean, it's a

2059
01:43:13,280 --> 01:43:17,240
Speaker 9: chemical petri dish. Just like Flint. It was very apparent

2060
01:43:17,439 --> 01:43:19,360
Speaker 9: just through walking in the houses that the water was

2061
01:43:19,400 --> 01:43:22,759
Speaker 9: contaminated because it was breaking washing machines, it was breaking

2062
01:43:22,800 --> 01:43:26,720
Speaker 9: dishwasher machines, it was coming through the walls. But the

2063
01:43:26,760 --> 01:43:31,240
Speaker 9: government simply told them everything's fine, and media simply in

2064
01:43:31,280 --> 01:43:35,639
Speaker 9: both cases regurgitates what the government says. So that's kind

2065
01:43:35,640 --> 01:43:38,320
Speaker 9: of the playbook being used. And in the case of Flint,

2066
01:43:38,560 --> 01:43:41,400
Speaker 9: it was a privatization scheme that caused this.

2067
01:43:41,880 --> 01:43:43,599
Speaker 8: And in the case of East Palestine, you have.

2068
01:43:43,560 --> 01:43:46,519
Speaker 9: A multi billion dollar railroad company that blew up toxic

2069
01:43:46,600 --> 01:43:50,719
Speaker 9: chemicals unnecessarily by the way, and are now the government

2070
01:43:50,800 --> 01:43:53,439
Speaker 9: is allowing them to oversee the response.

2071
01:43:54,880 --> 01:43:59,000
Speaker 2: So Jordan, with all of the criminal investigation now and

2072
01:43:59,080 --> 01:44:00,880
Speaker 2: all the stuff that we've learned and throughout your book,

2073
01:44:00,920 --> 01:44:03,200
Speaker 2: does it still stun you that there was no justice

2074
01:44:03,320 --> 01:44:05,519
Speaker 2: eventually done over the mass poisoning of the city.

2075
01:44:08,400 --> 01:44:09,800
Speaker 9: You know, not a lot of things stunned me, but

2076
01:44:09,840 --> 01:44:12,320
Speaker 9: in this case, yes, because you would have to think

2077
01:44:12,360 --> 01:44:15,280
Speaker 9: that if an American city with one hundred thousand people

2078
01:44:15,280 --> 01:44:18,599
Speaker 9: at the time this happened, was poisoned, at least some

2079
01:44:18,680 --> 01:44:21,160
Speaker 9: low level, some low level.

2080
01:44:20,920 --> 01:44:22,360
Speaker 8: Person would be thrown under the bus.

2081
01:44:22,760 --> 01:44:27,200
Speaker 9: I mean, this is so severe that literally the Attorney

2082
01:44:27,200 --> 01:44:29,280
Speaker 9: General that came in, who happens to be a Democrat,

2083
01:44:29,640 --> 01:44:35,719
Speaker 9: she took an unprecedented step to restart the investigation. I believe,

2084
01:44:35,800 --> 01:44:40,800
Speaker 9: unnecessarily dismiss all the charges. Now she is refusing to

2085
01:44:41,080 --> 01:44:45,720
Speaker 9: provide me documents, particular documents that would expose the financial

2086
01:44:46,000 --> 01:44:49,680
Speaker 9: scheme that caused this, involving the Wall Street banks. I

2087
01:44:49,800 --> 01:44:54,200
Speaker 9: believe they basically swept this all over the rug, because

2088
01:44:54,280 --> 01:44:57,120
Speaker 9: if it went forward in criminal court the full scope,

2089
01:44:57,120 --> 01:44:59,519
Speaker 9: which is revealed in my book, particularly the Wall Street

2090
01:44:59,760 --> 01:45:04,400
Speaker 9: part this, I believe it would be catastrophic for the

2091
01:45:04,400 --> 01:45:07,479
Speaker 9: Democratic Party and the Republican Party because it would show

2092
01:45:07,760 --> 01:45:11,200
Speaker 9: there's a lot of privatization and for profit schemes involving

2093
01:45:11,640 --> 01:45:15,000
Speaker 9: you know, complicated like bond deals and things like that

2094
01:45:15,000 --> 01:45:19,200
Speaker 9: that communities don't know about that are endangering their health.

2095
01:45:19,240 --> 01:45:22,200
Speaker 9: That's actually the backdrop of what caused the Flint water crisis.

2096
01:45:22,479 --> 01:45:25,680
Speaker 8: It's stunning that nobody.

2097
01:45:25,320 --> 01:45:28,040
Speaker 9: Is above the law justice system that ten years later,

2098
01:45:28,360 --> 01:45:31,000
Speaker 9: no one has even seen a jury, and as of

2099
01:45:31,040 --> 01:45:33,439
Speaker 9: now it doesn't even see if anyone will ever be convicted.

2100
01:45:35,080 --> 01:45:38,080
Speaker 1: I think there's also a deeper story that you're effective

2101
01:45:38,080 --> 01:45:40,000
Speaker 1: in telling here about who matters in the country and

2102
01:45:40,000 --> 01:45:43,919
Speaker 1: who doesn't. And that's another parallel between East Palestine and Flint, Michigan.

2103
01:45:43,960 --> 01:45:47,280
Speaker 1: You know, these are both industrial Midwestern places that have

2104
01:45:47,360 --> 01:45:50,919
Speaker 1: been really sort of forgotten and left behind by political

2105
01:45:50,960 --> 01:45:53,640
Speaker 1: class in both parties. You know, in one instance, you

2106
01:45:53,760 --> 01:45:57,240
Speaker 1: have majority poor black city, in another instance, you have

2107
01:45:57,560 --> 01:46:02,080
Speaker 1: a majority poor white area in the country. And you

2108
01:46:02,120 --> 01:46:06,160
Speaker 1: can only imagine that the response and the political discussion

2109
01:46:06,240 --> 01:46:08,680
Speaker 1: around this would be much different if it happened in

2110
01:46:08,800 --> 01:46:11,680
Speaker 1: like you know, McLain, Virginia, which is where all the

2111
01:46:12,240 --> 01:46:13,519
Speaker 1: rich people around DC live.

2112
01:46:14,360 --> 01:46:14,559
Speaker 3: Yep.

2113
01:46:14,880 --> 01:46:17,160
Speaker 9: But we don't have to imagine because when this happened,

2114
01:46:17,560 --> 01:46:20,000
Speaker 9: an hour down the road from Flint is ann Arbor, Michigan.

2115
01:46:20,360 --> 01:46:23,840
Speaker 9: That's where former Governor Rick Snyder lived, and they preemptively

2116
01:46:23,880 --> 01:46:27,920
Speaker 9: without a problem replaced all the lead pipes. Meanwhile, in Flint,

2117
01:46:28,000 --> 01:46:30,639
Speaker 9: ten years later they had not replaced all the lead pipes.

2118
01:46:30,840 --> 01:46:33,320
Speaker 4: So that's insane. That is insane.

2119
01:46:33,720 --> 01:46:36,479
Speaker 1: Jordan, tell people where they can, where they can get

2120
01:46:36,479 --> 01:46:37,559
Speaker 1: the book and support your work.

2121
01:46:39,000 --> 01:46:41,800
Speaker 9: Yeah, a book will be available in all major bookstores.

2122
01:46:41,800 --> 01:46:44,120
Speaker 9: You could order also on Amazon, Barnes and Noble. It

2123
01:46:44,160 --> 01:46:48,879
Speaker 9: will be available on audio in September. And definitely, definitely

2124
01:46:49,160 --> 01:46:53,160
Speaker 9: the book not only details after the water switch, it

2125
01:46:53,240 --> 01:46:56,600
Speaker 9: details to cover up and the fraud that caused the

2126
01:46:56,640 --> 01:46:58,719
Speaker 9: water prices in the first place.

2127
01:46:58,479 --> 01:46:59,639
Speaker 8: Which has not been reported.

2128
01:47:00,040 --> 01:47:03,599
Speaker 9: I also exclusively got testimony a former governor Rick Snyder

2129
01:47:03,680 --> 01:47:06,719
Speaker 9: under oath that has never been released, where he seems

2130
01:47:06,760 --> 01:47:12,080
Speaker 9: to contradict his Congressional testimony, particularly on what he knew

2131
01:47:12,120 --> 01:47:14,600
Speaker 9: and when he knew about the deadly legionnaire's outbreak. So

2132
01:47:15,200 --> 01:47:18,240
Speaker 9: definitely I encourage people to get the book, you know,

2133
01:47:18,360 --> 01:47:21,679
Speaker 9: and we need to unnormalize the poisoning of an American community,

2134
01:47:21,680 --> 01:47:25,960
Speaker 9: any community. So yeah, it'll be available in all bookstores

2135
01:47:26,040 --> 01:47:29,439
Speaker 9: as well as audio in September, and you could support

2136
01:47:29,640 --> 01:47:34,360
Speaker 9: my work at Status coup on YouTube coup we cover this,

2137
01:47:34,479 --> 01:47:37,040
Speaker 9: East Palestine and many other important stories.

2138
01:47:38,000 --> 01:47:39,240
Speaker 3: Very nice Jordan.

2139
01:47:39,320 --> 01:47:41,160
Speaker 4: Congrats on the book and thank you for staying on

2140
01:47:41,200 --> 01:47:42,000
Speaker 4: this story always.

2141
01:47:42,200 --> 01:47:43,479
Speaker 2: Thank you guys so much for watching. We have a

2142
01:47:43,479 --> 01:47:45,160
Speaker 2: great show for everyone tomorrow and we will see you

2143
01:47:45,240 --> 01:47:45,880
Speaker 2: all later