1
00:00:01,880 --> 00:00:06,080
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We

2
00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:09,319
Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the

3
00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:13,840
Speaker 1: betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the

4
00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:15,200
Speaker 1: wise guys pay attention.

5
00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:17,400
Speaker 2: I am Chad Noman and I am joined.

6
00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:21,919
Speaker 1: By my BFF, my companion, my Comfadre professional Better, Simon

7
00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:22,479
Speaker 1: hunt Are.

8
00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:25,799
Speaker 2: Hello, Simon, Chad.

9
00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:26,520
Speaker 3: What's up? Brother?

10
00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:27,479
Speaker 2: Listen? Man?

11
00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:31,000
Speaker 1: A lot of concerns about your hair. And as anyone

12
00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:34,840
Speaker 1: can see, anyone who can see, anyone can see who's

13
00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,760
Speaker 1: watching this on YouTube right now? Like you are filling

14
00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:42,400
Speaker 1: the entire frame. My brother, you are flowing. You have

15
00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:46,760
Speaker 1: as the kids say, lettuce. But to me, this is

16
00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:51,240
Speaker 1: like our playoff Beard right now. No haircuts for you.

17
00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:55,600
Speaker 1: You cannot even think about it. You cannot be tempted.

18
00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,800
Speaker 1: Who is the biblical guy with the hair Sampson? You're

19
00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,880
Speaker 1: Sampson right now, and you cannot get a cut. For

20
00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:07,119
Speaker 1: the record, I'm getting a haircut on Saturday. I gotta

21
00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:11,360
Speaker 1: keep it tight. You never can't I live without. I'm

22
00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:12,560
Speaker 1: too vain to let it go.

23
00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:15,039
Speaker 3: I can't wait. It's much needed.

24
00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:18,640
Speaker 4: But like we said, I'm very superstitious. I will if

25
00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:21,360
Speaker 4: we get winning that's all it matters. So yeah, it's

26
00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,640
Speaker 4: me being uncomfortable having hair that's just constantly in my eyes.

27
00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:27,200
Speaker 4: It's annoying, but it's worth it if we get those

28
00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:28,320
Speaker 4: ws and I keep making money.

29
00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:35,440
Speaker 1: Chad Man bun Simon's that is what we are going for.

30
00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:39,960
Speaker 4: It'd be a mullet before it becomes a man. But

31
00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:42,800
Speaker 4: I promise to the people that i'd cut the edges

32
00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:43,440
Speaker 4: long before.

33
00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:46,560
Speaker 1: Oh man, well, if we keep winning, I'd like to

34
00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:49,640
Speaker 1: see that too. If you're making promises, you're gonna.

35
00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:49,919
Speaker 2: Have to deliver.

36
00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:52,720
Speaker 1: This is our Thursday, Week seven episode. We're gonna narrow

37
00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:54,840
Speaker 1: down the options on our quest to find five picks

38
00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,920
Speaker 1: we agree on for this week. We're inching our way

39
00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:02,640
Speaker 1: ever close. A reminder, I know we've been saying this,

40
00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:04,800
Speaker 1: but we're getting so close. It's just a little bit

41
00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:07,440
Speaker 1: of logistics on the back end, but we are so

42
00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:13,480
Speaker 1: close to announcing the return of the free to play

43
00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,320
Speaker 1: five picks a week Pick them contest against the spread

44
00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:21,320
Speaker 1: thanks to our benevolent, benevolent sponsorship hard rock Beat All

45
00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:21,959
Speaker 1: credit to them.

46
00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,600
Speaker 2: Another reminder, watch.

47
00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:30,399
Speaker 1: On YouTube, Apple Pods, listen, Spotify, listen, subscribe.

48
00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:33,200
Speaker 2: All right, let's get into this thing. Every week. We're

49
00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:34,800
Speaker 2: gonna get better picks every week.

50
00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,800
Speaker 1: The professional betters, the wise guys, they're gonna have opinions

51
00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:41,360
Speaker 1: about what we talk about on Tuesday. It's a given

52
00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:44,520
Speaker 1: normally they don't like what we're saying, and we're going

53
00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:46,520
Speaker 1: to get some criticism. We're going to get some feedback,

54
00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:50,160
Speaker 1: We're going to get some pushback. They'll call Simon, they'll

55
00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:55,320
Speaker 1: tell him what they think. As usual on Thursdays, every

56
00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:57,800
Speaker 1: week it's time for sharp calls.

57
00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,800
Speaker 3: I have to answer this phone, all.

58
00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:06,919
Speaker 2: Right, rain range telephone range.

59
00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:12,000
Speaker 3: Somebody said, maybe want to do Yeah, it feels like

60
00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:13,359
Speaker 3: we gonna get a little disagreement.

61
00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:15,720
Speaker 4: But this week we're going to start with the things

62
00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,519
Speaker 4: that maybe we're just on the other side of a

63
00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:21,240
Speaker 4: lot of these professionals talked about how we liked Atlanta.

64
00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:22,760
Speaker 3: Know a lot of pros that are like the forty

65
00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:24,400
Speaker 3: nine ers. Once again, I'm.

66
00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,279
Speaker 2: Kind of glad by the way, huh, I'm kind of glad.

67
00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:30,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, but again, I my push back to them is like,

68
00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:32,000
Speaker 4: weren't you guys the same one shouting from the rooftops

69
00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:33,799
Speaker 4: how amazing on a spot last week was for the

70
00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:35,600
Speaker 4: forty nine ers against an overrated Bucks team.

71
00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:39,240
Speaker 2: See you, Okay, but.

72
00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:40,680
Speaker 4: I just I just got a lot of a shock

73
00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:42,720
Speaker 4: and I got a good amount of calls about that one.

74
00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:48,600
Speaker 4: Got a couple of calls that, uh, you know, about

75
00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:51,080
Speaker 4: Chad's choice, So we might have to dive into that

76
00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:52,320
Speaker 4: one a little bit, A lot, a lot of a

77
00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:53,680
Speaker 4: lot of love from Miami.

78
00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:55,920
Speaker 2: Especially, I've noticed, I've noticed.

79
00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:57,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, so got a couple ones about that.

80
00:03:57,600 --> 00:03:59,320
Speaker 4: But again, I don't know if I totally agree with

81
00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:02,280
Speaker 4: I think I like Chad's choice. Got some calls about

82
00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:07,480
Speaker 4: the Rams. McVeigh apparently is really good International Games. Okay,

83
00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:09,320
Speaker 4: I mean that's not gonna be one. I'm gonna spend

84
00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:11,200
Speaker 4: too much time worrying about. It's like and I having

85
00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:12,960
Speaker 4: a position I've been taking much about. I just want

86
00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:15,400
Speaker 4: people to know that there are pros on that side

87
00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:19,120
Speaker 4: and for the Chalky side. A lot of love for Panthers,

88
00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:23,400
Speaker 4: for a couple of pros, I know. And let's get

89
00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:26,920
Speaker 4: to the ones that maybe we've nailed Chad. Tennessee they

90
00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,080
Speaker 4: love it, Minnesota, they love it. We didn't really spend

91
00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:32,440
Speaker 4: much time talking about the Saints. A lot of pros

92
00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:34,599
Speaker 4: love for the Saints. That's a good spot good number.

93
00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:38,480
Speaker 4: Obviously we're gonna talk about Raiders.

94
00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:38,960
Speaker 3: We love.

95
00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,039
Speaker 4: That was a big talking put a lot of pros

96
00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:44,400
Speaker 4: and aur on Monday Night's Special Chat. We might have

97
00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:46,760
Speaker 4: to do it. Every Probably talk you likes our Detroit pick.

98
00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:48,719
Speaker 4: Every Probably talk to you likes our Houston pick. So

99
00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:52,520
Speaker 4: we have some decisions to make this week because I

100
00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:56,359
Speaker 4: liked those spots. The more I talk to guys, the

101
00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:58,640
Speaker 4: more it feels like, Okay, we might have been locked

102
00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:00,679
Speaker 4: in and that those are really good spots.

103
00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:02,320
Speaker 3: Those too Monday night double header games.

104
00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:05,159
Speaker 4: So yeah, I would say we had a little bit

105
00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:07,440
Speaker 4: of pushback for the most part, a lot of love

106
00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:10,440
Speaker 4: for our picks. And we'll see because again the public

107
00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:12,640
Speaker 4: has just began crush this year. We know the data,

108
00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:15,960
Speaker 4: we've seen the numbers. It's been the dream is professional better.

109
00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:18,320
Speaker 4: And like I joke with people, if you're listening to

110
00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:22,600
Speaker 4: someone shows or you're you know, paying like a sucker

111
00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:25,279
Speaker 4: for someone's picks on social media and they have a

112
00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:27,919
Speaker 4: losing record in the NFL this season, they are the

113
00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:28,760
Speaker 4: square of squares.

114
00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:31,560
Speaker 3: You are dealing with, a legit a square because.

115
00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:36,159
Speaker 4: I know pros who they don't do anything work wise,

116
00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:38,200
Speaker 4: they don't put eighty hours of work in a week.

117
00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,880
Speaker 4: They simply fade the public and ride with the books.

118
00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:43,599
Speaker 4: It's like one of the most profitable years I can remember.

119
00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:46,719
Speaker 3: So it's it's a good year to about the books.

120
00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:48,240
Speaker 3: It's been a good year about these dogs.

121
00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:50,720
Speaker 4: And you know, I feel like me and you have

122
00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,560
Speaker 4: done well taken favorites we need to this season and

123
00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:55,440
Speaker 4: this week again we're on a couple of favorites. So

124
00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:57,280
Speaker 4: you love the dogs this week, like a lot of

125
00:05:57,320 --> 00:05:59,719
Speaker 4: the pros do. But there's some favorites they're not. You know,

126
00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:01,919
Speaker 4: you get a ton of calls about the Chargers. I

127
00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:04,159
Speaker 4: still love the Chargers just because a lot of pros

128
00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:05,720
Speaker 4: don't love and a couple of them are on the Colts.

129
00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,160
Speaker 4: I still think it's a Charger spot and like Washington,

130
00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,720
Speaker 4: a lot of pros I talk to you like Cowboys.

131
00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:13,200
Speaker 3: I still think Washington's a good spot.

132
00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:17,120
Speaker 4: So it's an interesting week with professionals going back and

133
00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:18,200
Speaker 4: forth in a lot of these games.

134
00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:20,680
Speaker 1: Well, a lot of short lines, so you're gonna get

135
00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:22,200
Speaker 1: two way action on short lines.

136
00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:23,720
Speaker 2: All right, that was sharp calls.

137
00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:29,279
Speaker 1: Let's get into the games real quickly. You mentioned Chiefs Raiders.

138
00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:30,920
Speaker 1: I don't want to spend too much time on it.

139
00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,320
Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to put it in our contest.

140
00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:36,440
Speaker 1: We wanted to be patient, we wanted to get to twelve,

141
00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:40,880
Speaker 1: twelve and a half. In my opinion, sure, go ahead

142
00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:43,480
Speaker 1: bet the Raiders, but I don't think you're necessarily betting

143
00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:48,599
Speaker 1: a power ranking here. You're kind of just betting the number.

144
00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:51,600
Speaker 1: I don't think we're we need to spend too much

145
00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:53,279
Speaker 1: time on it because it's not going to be a

146
00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:56,560
Speaker 1: contest play. It's just sort of play the number, play

147
00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:58,880
Speaker 1: the dog, fade the public kind of play.

148
00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,800
Speaker 4: To me, this is a long term winner, though. This

149
00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:03,400
Speaker 4: is a play you have to make if you listen

150
00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:03,760
Speaker 4: to the show.

151
00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:06,440
Speaker 3: You have to bet the Raiders. I mean, I can

152
00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:07,920
Speaker 3: just give some quick numbers.

153
00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,680
Speaker 4: Like there's tons of data that backs it up as

154
00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,160
Speaker 4: a favorite of a touchdown or more so Mahomes since

155
00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:16,040
Speaker 4: twenty twenty, he's thirty six and two straight up. There's

156
00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:18,600
Speaker 4: only two losses in that time frame chat since twenty twenty,

157
00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:19,680
Speaker 4: both against the Raiders.

158
00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:22,240
Speaker 3: So it's a weird, unique spot.

159
00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:25,960
Speaker 4: You know, he's thirteen and twenty four against the spread

160
00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:28,200
Speaker 4: as a favorite of seven points or more so, Like

161
00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:29,880
Speaker 4: we talked about we like to fade him. When he's

162
00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:31,920
Speaker 4: big favorites, we like to back them. He's a short

163
00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,240
Speaker 4: favorite or a dog Mahomes. These numbers all back that up,

164
00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:39,000
Speaker 4: and just something to keep in mind. It's divisional games

165
00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:41,120
Speaker 4: are very stupid. That was my whole point about bringing

166
00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:42,640
Speaker 4: this up, a kind of hammering home. Like I just

167
00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:45,600
Speaker 4: told you, Mahomes he doesn't lose ever in the spot.

168
00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:48,160
Speaker 4: He's only lost twice against Raiders, So if you go

169
00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:51,240
Speaker 4: back and look through those games, it's a joke. It's like,

170
00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:56,120
Speaker 4: you know, the the Raiders were I think one game

171
00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:57,800
Speaker 4: they were a third point thirteen point dog. In the

172
00:07:57,880 --> 00:07:59,600
Speaker 4: game they were like this, they were a twelve point dog.

173
00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,040
Speaker 4: So I get it, Like I'm not going to bang

174
00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:05,680
Speaker 4: the table here about this one. But it's just all

175
00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:08,040
Speaker 4: these numbers. There's even more numbers. There's another number of

176
00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:12,120
Speaker 4: Saul Mahomes is eleven point favorite or more. He's six

177
00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:14,600
Speaker 4: and twelve in his career against the spread, so again

178
00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:17,880
Speaker 4: another spot to like it. In his last eleven he's

179
00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:21,760
Speaker 4: two and nine against the spread. So it's like, we

180
00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:23,760
Speaker 4: got to do it. I know we have a lot

181
00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:25,440
Speaker 4: of games we like this week, so I probably won't

182
00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:28,520
Speaker 4: force it in. Just don't be shocked people if I

183
00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:31,280
Speaker 4: do get these glassy eyes to it come Sunday morning,

184
00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:33,599
Speaker 4: because I see how ugly it is with you know,

185
00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:34,960
Speaker 4: I think you're in the same boat. We just don't

186
00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:38,120
Speaker 4: trust him. But it's like historically we have to bet this.

187
00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:39,920
Speaker 4: This is a long term winner in a position we

188
00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:42,520
Speaker 4: need to take. And you know, Mahomes outside his division

189
00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:44,840
Speaker 4: is a big favorite. He's done really well in his division.

190
00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:48,320
Speaker 4: He's four to twelve and one his last sixteen so

191
00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:49,720
Speaker 4: against the spread.

192
00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:51,240
Speaker 3: So it's just something to keep bringing up.

193
00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:54,920
Speaker 4: That is, numbers are always inflated, and they're tend to

194
00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:56,800
Speaker 4: be more inflated against guys in his own division. So

195
00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,080
Speaker 4: I agree with you, though there are games I like more.

196
00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:01,480
Speaker 4: It's just taking a position on this one. I'm betting

197
00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:03,240
Speaker 4: the Raiders, And like I said, I was hoping I

198
00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:05,200
Speaker 4: was going to get the thirteen. The Pros they have

199
00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:07,400
Speaker 4: the same number as I do. They've they've they've come in.

200
00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:09,680
Speaker 4: It never touched thirteen. It only got up to twelve

201
00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:11,720
Speaker 4: and a half. Like CHET said, it's a dead number.

202
00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:13,560
Speaker 4: Not going to be one of our bets most likely,

203
00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:16,000
Speaker 4: But yeah, I do like the Raiders on the spot.

204
00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:21,000
Speaker 1: All right, you just mentioned this in Sharp Calls. Miami

205
00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:23,520
Speaker 1: at Cleveland. Cleveland is a two and a half point favorite.

206
00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:27,000
Speaker 1: This was Chad's choice. The two and a half lasted

207
00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:29,840
Speaker 1: for about twenty four hours after our show, and it

208
00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:33,320
Speaker 1: got bumped up to three because I move lines. We

209
00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:37,679
Speaker 1: know that the betters buying it back and moving back

210
00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:38,720
Speaker 1: down to two and a half.

211
00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:41,959
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be honest, and I.

212
00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:43,840
Speaker 1: Didn't know this was going to be in Sharp Calls,

213
00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,520
Speaker 1: but I could have predicted it. I would have felt

214
00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:48,400
Speaker 1: better if it stayed at three for a little bit longer.

215
00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:51,080
Speaker 1: I'm kind of surprised by the buy back. And then

216
00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:54,599
Speaker 1: I will tell you also the fact that over the

217
00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:58,360
Speaker 1: past twenty four hours two has been taking blowback for

218
00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,480
Speaker 1: his comments about the team meeting in the players only meetings,

219
00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:04,760
Speaker 1: and now he's apologizing and Mike McDaniel gave him a

220
00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:06,679
Speaker 1: little bit of grief at a press conference about it.

221
00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,080
Speaker 1: That worries me. It worries me because when those teams

222
00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,480
Speaker 1: are at their lowest and you think you've got it nailed,

223
00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:18,000
Speaker 1: that's when you end up getting burned a little bit.

224
00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:22,760
Speaker 1: I'm still on the Browns. I still like the Browns

225
00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:25,360
Speaker 1: in this spot. I like it situationally, I like the

226
00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:29,520
Speaker 1: matchup karmically. If I can't think of a better word,

227
00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:31,960
Speaker 1: I'm getting a little anxious.

228
00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,640
Speaker 4: That's funny because I've gotten those toll option away where

229
00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:38,280
Speaker 4: I was with you on clean because I liked the spot.

230
00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:39,880
Speaker 4: I thought two and a half was a good number.

231
00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:42,880
Speaker 4: The Miami dysfunction is like, this is the best. This

232
00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:46,080
Speaker 4: is exactly what I wanted and needed for this matchup.

233
00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,439
Speaker 4: Like they should be focused on the game and going

234
00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:51,599
Speaker 4: against some of the best defensive lines they're going to

235
00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:52,320
Speaker 4: face all year.

236
00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:53,280
Speaker 3: They're not.

237
00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:56,160
Speaker 4: They're worried about all this other bs, which is like,

238
00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:58,640
Speaker 4: this is what bad teams do. This is how bad

239
00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:01,199
Speaker 4: teams stay bad. Don't worry about what's on the field,

240
00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:02,680
Speaker 4: what they need to deal with on the field. They're

241
00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:05,559
Speaker 4: worrying about what guys aren't coming to meetings at the

242
00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,079
Speaker 4: right time. Or I mean, I don't know if you've

243
00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:11,000
Speaker 4: been watching the tool of stuff he and I don't

244
00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,200
Speaker 4: want to joke about TT, but the stuff he says

245
00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:17,360
Speaker 4: week to week, it feels like he's got something going

246
00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:21,760
Speaker 4: on upstairs, Like he doesn't make sense, and like he

247
00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:24,720
Speaker 4: was saying how he doesn't want guys on the team

248
00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,640
Speaker 4: talking about other people and being distraction where he's the

249
00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:30,480
Speaker 4: guy that just did it, and it's like, okay, maybe

250
00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:31,720
Speaker 4: a zero self awareness.

251
00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:32,240
Speaker 3: I don't know.

252
00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,640
Speaker 4: He's just saying the most bizarre things that like people

253
00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:36,960
Speaker 4: just don't want to hear. Like even like a week

254
00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:38,880
Speaker 4: or two ago, you're talking about how like he doesn't

255
00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:40,400
Speaker 4: care what happens on the field because he goes home

256
00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:44,000
Speaker 4: to a loving family. That's great mentality. We all that's great,

257
00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:46,640
Speaker 4: Like everyone agrees with that. Don't say that to your

258
00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,719
Speaker 4: fans who know you're making hundreds of million dollars so

259
00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:51,440
Speaker 4: that's why you should care how you do on the

260
00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:53,800
Speaker 4: field and if you win or losing all of it.

261
00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:56,800
Speaker 4: It's just it's just so negative. So I'm still with you.

262
00:11:56,920 --> 00:11:59,480
Speaker 4: I was shocked, honestly, these pros. It's like, dude, you

263
00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:01,640
Speaker 4: got a way the one last week with Miami, Like

264
00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:05,160
Speaker 4: you're really going back to this Miami well again after

265
00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,440
Speaker 4: you clearly stole a game against the Chargers.

266
00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:11,439
Speaker 3: I can't believe it. So I'm with you. I was

267
00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:12,640
Speaker 3: shocked here in sharp calls.

268
00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:15,400
Speaker 4: I still like Cleveland, but yeah, if it's if we

269
00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:17,720
Speaker 4: get pushed off that this is down to you know,

270
00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,040
Speaker 4: Cleveland minus one and a half and the pros of

271
00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:23,640
Speaker 4: coming very heavy on Miami again. Sure, like, we'll avoid

272
00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:25,360
Speaker 4: it Sunday morning, won't put in the contest because we

273
00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:28,800
Speaker 4: have some other games we like. But yeah, I still

274
00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:31,680
Speaker 4: think this is just a great, great matchup for Cleveland.

275
00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:35,200
Speaker 1: I'm so glad to hear you say that, because I

276
00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:38,360
Speaker 1: loved my handicap at the game. Like, I was so

277
00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:40,920
Speaker 1: excited about it when I finally came to that conclusion

278
00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:43,679
Speaker 1: at some point, you know, before we came out the

279
00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:47,120
Speaker 1: air Tuesday, I'm like, I nailed it. There's three or

280
00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:49,400
Speaker 1: four games that I freaking nailed and I feel like

281
00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,600
Speaker 1: I totally nailed this one. So now you're booing me

282
00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:55,559
Speaker 1: with confidence. I'm glad we'll stay on Cleveland minus two

283
00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:57,640
Speaker 1: and a half. I hope, I hope it doesn't continue

284
00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:59,319
Speaker 1: to go down and we don't get more chatter from

285
00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:01,520
Speaker 1: wise guys. But I like Cleveland two and a half.

286
00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:03,320
Speaker 2: New Orleans Chicago.

287
00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:07,000
Speaker 1: You mentioned this, We discussed it a little bit on Tuesday.

288
00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:11,720
Speaker 1: It's moved a half point in the same direction. Here's

289
00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:14,680
Speaker 1: my question. This moves so much. On Monday night, after

290
00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,040
Speaker 1: the Bears beat the Commanders in the final second to

291
00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:18,600
Speaker 1: move from four and a half to five and a half.

292
00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:20,840
Speaker 2: I think it was a headfake.

293
00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:22,760
Speaker 1: I think the wise Guy's moved it to five and

294
00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:25,079
Speaker 1: a half so they could buy back at four and

295
00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:29,080
Speaker 1: a half because I think the entire wise Guy community

296
00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:32,680
Speaker 1: right now is in love with Spencer Ratler.

297
00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:34,480
Speaker 2: That's what I think.

298
00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:36,439
Speaker 3: That could be fair.

299
00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:40,640
Speaker 4: Honestly, I'm shocked, but I just the Saints, even Spencer Rattler,

300
00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:43,280
Speaker 4: he's not good on the road.

301
00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:46,280
Speaker 3: I know it's a short sample this year, but even

302
00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:48,040
Speaker 3: this year he's not been good on the road. And

303
00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:49,120
Speaker 3: the Bears.

304
00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:51,440
Speaker 4: My whole view was I just thought it was an

305
00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:55,080
Speaker 4: inflated line where like I said, the Saints, the public

306
00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:57,960
Speaker 4: is not on them, there's no one, no one public

307
00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,640
Speaker 4: like it is a PROS team. Like you're right, but

308
00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:03,080
Speaker 4: then yet, like you dive into the trends and the numbers.

309
00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:06,319
Speaker 4: Sure you as a Bears fan, you can probably a

310
00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:08,520
Speaker 4: test of this, but again it's it's different because the

311
00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:11,719
Speaker 4: coaching change, but it does include this year. So the

312
00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:14,440
Speaker 4: last four games on short rest with Kayler Williams, he's

313
00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,920
Speaker 4: ohing four straight up in those games, he's only getting

314
00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:22,160
Speaker 4: fifteen points per game, So okay, he struggles in short rests. Again,

315
00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:27,440
Speaker 4: that's a big deal. Less prep time the last two years. Okay,

316
00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:31,000
Speaker 4: he's own four. I try to dive into more. It's like, okay,

317
00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,080
Speaker 4: what are they like after these primetime games? Because that's

318
00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:35,440
Speaker 4: that is a big deal to me, is how these

319
00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:39,680
Speaker 4: young teams react after prime time games. So sadly, Chad

320
00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:41,880
Speaker 4: is not good. They are just two and seven the

321
00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:47,120
Speaker 4: last nine games coming off primetime games, and this year

322
00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:51,480
Speaker 4: obviously only because this is Ben Johnson's only his first year.

323
00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:55,240
Speaker 4: He lost against the Lions, right, he got smoked in

324
00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,760
Speaker 4: that game, So you know, it's it's how is this

325
00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,120
Speaker 4: young team going to react? That's that's probably what a

326
00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:03,440
Speaker 4: lot of professors are viewing this as, where it's you know,

327
00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:07,400
Speaker 4: it's treyk I mean even you know, there's it's Chicago

328
00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:10,240
Speaker 4: like there, it's so much better. They've coming off two

329
00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:12,640
Speaker 4: straight road winds, because it's going to be good vibes

330
00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:13,880
Speaker 4: for the most part. I mean, I feel like the

331
00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:15,800
Speaker 4: only dumb question they've had this week is the whole

332
00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:19,200
Speaker 4: Troy Aikman, which I'm hoping you've come to my side,

333
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:21,480
Speaker 4: Troy Aikman being a dick and kind of being overrated,

334
00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:23,000
Speaker 4: H Troy.

335
00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:26,400
Speaker 1: I actually, I actually it's funny you say that. I'm

336
00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:28,840
Speaker 1: on the other side. I feel like he was great

337
00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:32,000
Speaker 1: in that game. I have no problem with what he said.

338
00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:34,760
Speaker 1: I always feel like Troy Aikman is great in those games.

339
00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,920
Speaker 1: And the reason I want I like Troy Aikman. I

340
00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:41,000
Speaker 1: think he's such a curmudgeon and I think he's like

341
00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:45,640
Speaker 1: he gets he gets testy and sensitive about everything. At

342
00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:49,000
Speaker 1: one point he was talking about the K balls and

343
00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:52,240
Speaker 1: it being swapped out because it was raining and getting

344
00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,720
Speaker 1: to work the balls in And I always think about this,

345
00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:59,000
Speaker 1: and this this frames a lot of my Troy Aikman feelings.

346
00:15:59,160 --> 00:15:59,840
Speaker 3: Uh you.

347
00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:01,680
Speaker 2: Now, Back in the day when I was.

348
00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:05,920
Speaker 1: A cub reporter at Sports Illustrated, I went to what

349
00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:10,320
Speaker 1: was then Valley Ranch working for Sports Illustrator and was part.

350
00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:11,080
Speaker 2: Of a two person team.

351
00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:12,800
Speaker 1: It was me and a guy, Rick Tellender, who was

352
00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:16,160
Speaker 1: a senior writer at Sports Illustrator. We spent an entire

353
00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:19,040
Speaker 1: week with the Cowboys, and we had full access, like

354
00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:23,040
Speaker 1: we were literally everywhere we were in the room where

355
00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:26,000
Speaker 1: like the pills were broken up into different colors.

356
00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:26,280
Speaker 3: Right.

357
00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:28,240
Speaker 2: I was with Bill.

358
00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:32,320
Speaker 1: Bates, where the former safety when he got home to

359
00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:34,280
Speaker 1: his house and his wife told him that they were

360
00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:36,760
Speaker 1: having another kid. I think they had three kids at

361
00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,800
Speaker 1: the time. Like, I was at a club with different players.

362
00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:41,800
Speaker 1: It was a crazy week. But at one point I

363
00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:45,480
Speaker 1: was in the locker room when Troy Aikman had just

364
00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:49,640
Speaker 1: gotten a bag of new balls, new footballs, and he

365
00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:53,440
Speaker 1: had to break them in, and it was some new

366
00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:56,120
Speaker 1: rule that year about the balls, and he was just

367
00:16:56,600 --> 00:17:00,200
Speaker 1: so freaking mad about having to break in the ball

368
00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,720
Speaker 1: and just muttering under his breath. You know, the NFL

369
00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,240
Speaker 1: they want us to do these things with the balls

370
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:07,520
Speaker 1: that makes it harder to play, Like I just have

371
00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,959
Speaker 1: that in my head, Like this Jew's just intense, and

372
00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,639
Speaker 1: I think he I think he's actually great. I know

373
00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,920
Speaker 1: I'm in the minority here, and I'm fine with what.

374
00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:20,119
Speaker 3: The christ You're probably the one percent.

375
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:22,800
Speaker 2: You know what. I don't think the Bears are perfect

376
00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:23,240
Speaker 2: in that game.

377
00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:27,320
Speaker 4: I like, but he was ridiculous him holding a garage

378
00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 4: against Killer Williams because he didn't call him to have

379
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:30,640
Speaker 4: a phone call.

380
00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:33,639
Speaker 3: Before the game. It's just don't care, old boomer energy.

381
00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:36,679
Speaker 2: I don't care. Loved it.

382
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,200
Speaker 4: I know, I know there's no one better in football

383
00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:43,800
Speaker 4: that tells you a team needs to call it time

384
00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 4: out when there's less than two minutes left and they

385
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:47,800
Speaker 4: get a first down than Troy Aikman. The man thinks

386
00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:49,640
Speaker 4: he's a genius every time he goes Yep, they gotta

387
00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:52,320
Speaker 4: call it time out here, Joe. Okay, Troy, thank you

388
00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:52,639
Speaker 4: for that.

389
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,600
Speaker 2: I love everything he does. I'm a huge, huge TROYK fan.

390
00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:01,040
Speaker 4: I think this game, I guess, you know, we don't

391
00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:02,679
Speaker 4: have to take a position on it. I'll probably end

392
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 4: up being on rattler in this Saints team just because

393
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,800
Speaker 4: it is this Bears defense that is just bad. They're

394
00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,080
Speaker 4: just a bad defense that has major holes. I think

395
00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,679
Speaker 4: they're still thirty thirty first against the run. So it's like,

396
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:18,480
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, the Bears could easily win this game.

397
00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:21,240
Speaker 4: They are more talented both sides of the ball and

398
00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:25,320
Speaker 4: obviously have a better coach. But you know, just looking

399
00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:27,720
Speaker 4: through the trends, historically this has been a bad spot

400
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:31,040
Speaker 4: and even with Ben Johnson, you know he's changed a lot. Here,

401
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,080
Speaker 4: we'll see this would be a huge, huge, another thing

402
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:36,479
Speaker 4: to show that the culture is different. If he can

403
00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:39,560
Speaker 4: get this young team up after a prime time win,

404
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:42,000
Speaker 4: because it's just hard to do. It's hard not to

405
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:45,840
Speaker 4: live for three four days with that win rather than

406
00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:46,960
Speaker 4: moving on to the next game.

407
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,240
Speaker 3: So give me interesting to see how this Bears team performs.

408
00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,240
Speaker 2: I think it's a terrible spot for the Bears to cover.

409
00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:54,640
Speaker 2: I like him to win. Their defense is terrible.

410
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 1: The Saints can get a pass rush, which is where

411
00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:01,480
Speaker 1: Caleb has struggled a little bit, get sacked, but against

412
00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:06,280
Speaker 1: the rush, I think he's still horribly inaccurate in intermediate roots.

413
00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:09,600
Speaker 1: I think he's holding the ball too long. I got

414
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:12,359
Speaker 1: a lot of issues with Kleb. I love the Bears, obviously.

415
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 1: I love the Bears. I only want good things for

416
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:18,600
Speaker 1: the Bears. I only want good things for all Bears fans,

417
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:23,679
Speaker 1: including me and my younger son, who I've gifted with

418
00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 1: the tragedy of Bears fandom. I hate the spot for

419
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,080
Speaker 1: the Bears, and I think it's a statement game because

420
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:32,440
Speaker 1: of what you just said. They got to figure out

421
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:35,920
Speaker 1: a way to get beyond a really big win, a

422
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:39,680
Speaker 1: dramatic win, and win a game against a bad team

423
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 1: at home.

424
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:40,640
Speaker 2: That's it.

425
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,320
Speaker 1: Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor,

426
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:50,080
Speaker 1: hard Rock. Bet Week seven kicks off with Steelers versus Bengals.

427
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,240
Speaker 2: Check out these streaks from hard Rock Bet stats up.

428
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,439
Speaker 1: You can find odds to bet on all of these

429
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,639
Speaker 1: streaks right now in a hard Rock Bet app. Cincinnati

430
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:00,480
Speaker 1: has lost nine in a row is on do but

431
00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,199
Speaker 1: receiver t Higgins has scored a touchdown in six straight

432
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 1: home games. If you like stats like those, you can

433
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:09,399
Speaker 1: bet with them using live odds right there in hard

434
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,720
Speaker 1: Rock bet stats Hub. If you haven't tried your first

435
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 1: bet on hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you

436
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:16,440
Speaker 1: to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets

437
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 1: if you win. Just place a five dollars bet and

438
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 1: if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but

439
00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:22,919
Speaker 1: also an extra one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.

440
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,359
Speaker 1: Plus Tonight on hard Rock Bet, you can get a

441
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,160
Speaker 1: Thursday Night Parlay boost for the game boost, your same

442
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:32,160
Speaker 1: game parlay or SGP Max, so your bet pays extra winnings.

443
00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:34,919
Speaker 1: Here's a parlay I like tonight in Cincy under in

444
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,400
Speaker 1: the game under in the second half in Joe Flacco

445
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 1: over one and a half interceptions. There's new promos every day,

446
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:44,879
Speaker 1: so if you're listening to this later, just open the

447
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 1: app and check out what you've got. Any day of

448
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:49,479
Speaker 1: the week, download the hard Rock Bet app and make

449
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:53,040
Speaker 1: your first deposit offered by the Seminal Tribe of Florida.

450
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:56,440
Speaker 1: In Florida, offered by Seminal hard Rock Digital, LC and

451
00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 1: all other states, must be twenty one or over physically

452
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee,

453
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:05,680
Speaker 1: or Virginia to play.

454
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:07,160
Speaker 2: Terms and conditions apply.

455
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 1: Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight three three

456
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:13,199
Speaker 1: play wise in Indiana, if you were someone you know

457
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 1: as a gambling problem and wants help one eight hundred

458
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 1: and nine with it, gambling problem called one eight hundred

459
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 1: gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia, Philadelphia, Minnesota.

460
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 1: Minnesota is now a one and a half point favorite.

461
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,119
Speaker 1: Can I tell you a story that's going to feel

462
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:33,359
Speaker 1: totally relevant.

463
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 2: When I'm done? Yeah, it's gonna make you look good.

464
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 1: So you know, I'm working on this book right And

465
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,399
Speaker 1: one of the guys I'm profiling the book profiling the

466
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 1: book is professional better, very high stakes professional better like

467
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,120
Speaker 1: you she's betting six figures on games. And he's got

468
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 1: a bunch of very high net worth guys who tail him,

469
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,679
Speaker 1: and they get these free plays on the games, and

470
00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 1: then he gets a percentage of whatever they win. And

471
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,840
Speaker 1: so I happen to know completely random one of the

472
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 1: guys who tails him, and this guy works in finance,

473
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 1: and he's betting twenty twenty five grand a game on

474
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 1: whatever this guy bets, right, And he has told me

475
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 1: anytime this guy texts with a bet that he's making,

476
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:14,120
Speaker 1: he will stop what he's doing.

477
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 2: He will walk out of board meetings, he.

478
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 1: Will walk out of phone calls, will whatever it takes

479
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,359
Speaker 1: to get the bet down. When this guy says it

480
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:24,399
Speaker 1: before the line moves, he will do it. So you know,

481
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 1: before the season began, I was with this professional better

482
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 1: and he happened to send out a text to a

483
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 1: bunch of folks that tail him, including this guy, And

484
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 1: this guy texted me. He said, I'm on the highway

485
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:43,159
Speaker 1: right now and I just pulled over to make a

486
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,399
Speaker 1: bet based on what this guy just texted me.

487
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:48,680
Speaker 2: Here's my point.

488
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 1: When someone who knows something says something, you need to

489
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 1: stop whatever you're doing and get the best of the

490
00:22:56,080 --> 00:23:00,879
Speaker 1: number Simon on Tuesday show, you said take minutes plus

491
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,680
Speaker 1: two and a half. I really hope people were paying attention,

492
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 1: and I hope they stopped whatever they were doing whenever

493
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 1: they heard that to go get the Bikings at two

494
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 1: and a half.

495
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 2: Because it's now at one and a half.

496
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 3: It might come back, though.

497
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 4: I do think obviously that's the professional side that money

498
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 4: has come in. But we talked about the risk with

499
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 4: this bet and thinking this position was I didn't know

500
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:22,640
Speaker 4: the injury report right we were doing that on Tuesday.

501
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 4: J J McCarthy did practice, which to me, I don't

502
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 4: know about you, Chad. I did not make this bet

503
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 4: to bet on JJ McCarthy against a Fangs defense like

504
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 4: that's not I'd much rather it be Wentz running this

505
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:38,879
Speaker 4: offense where Yeah, I know Wentz is gonna throw us

506
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 4: a pick, but I also know he's gonna be able

507
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 4: to push the ball downfield with much better accuracy than JJ.

508
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:45,360
Speaker 3: And for the.

509
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 4: Eagle side, looks like they're gonna get Dalen. Carter Back

510
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 4: Quinnion Mitchell did practice yesterday limited, so I don't know

511
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:53,679
Speaker 4: if he's actually gonna play, which to me, that is

512
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 4: the factor Jalen Carr obviously is.

513
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 3: A big deal. He's not I mean, he's gonna he

514
00:23:58,840 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 3: can be a non factor.

515
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 4: What we've seen this year with the Eagles is the

516
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 4: teams just double him because the Eagles have literally four

517
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 4: pass rushers on their staff right now, like we have

518
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 4: four d ns, and none of them are talented enough

519
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 4: to warrant a double team. So you can mitigate Card,

520
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 4: you cannot mitigate Quinny and Mitchell and what he can

521
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 4: do for this team that we're talking about, justin Jefferson,

522
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 4: if he's going against the Eagles number two or number

523
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 4: three corner.

524
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 3: It's over. This is a horrible, horrible matchup for this

525
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 3: Eagles team.

526
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 4: And even diving into some of the numbers with Jalen Hurts,

527
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:32,439
Speaker 4: like we talked last week, we talked a little bit

528
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 4: about the Giants taking the number at seven and a

529
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 4: half and how the trends just loved that Giants team

530
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 4: in that exact spot. It was the same thing with

531
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 4: the trend just hated the Eagles in that exact spot.

532
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 4: The Egles are just not a good team for some reason.

533
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 4: After they have straight up losses, they've been very fortunate.

534
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 4: They just don't lose so you could say, well, these

535
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 4: are old stats because they just went whatever it was.

536
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 4: Hurts just went twenty and one the last year. But

537
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 4: you saw last year earlier in the year when they

538
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 4: were losing, it took them a cup weeks to get

539
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 4: into that groove and start covering spread. So you know, Hurts,

540
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 4: this is gonna be his twenty second game off a

541
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 4: straight up loss. He's ten and eleven the following game

542
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 4: seven and fourteen against the spread. So historically just not

543
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 4: good because again the public still overvalues them, and it's

544
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:19,639
Speaker 4: just whenever the Eagles do lose, it seems like in

545
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:21,159
Speaker 4: his career it's a skid.

546
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 3: It's not.

547
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 4: It's not the type of thing where it's like, Okay,

548
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 4: they win one week, they'll win the next. It's no,

549
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 4: it's like three four weeks of just bad. Like it

550
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 4: takes them a lot to get out of this hole.

551
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,199
Speaker 4: So we said it's it's gonna be interesting how they

552
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,120
Speaker 4: use the extended time. I don't think they're gonna fix

553
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 4: the offense. I know they're saying all the right things

554
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 4: right now. I just think that's a you know, Hurts

555
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 4: is a professional, classy guy. He's never gonna throw his

556
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 4: bus his coach under the bus. But aj Brown the

557
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 4: true truth teller, He's the one who he's the guy

558
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 4: you want to hear from because he's gonna kind of

559
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,400
Speaker 4: give you that is. And he said what I think

560
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:53,879
Speaker 4: is true. He said, everything's fine, but we do need

561
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 4: to make it just We need to run the ball more.

562
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,360
Speaker 4: We need to do different things where you know, if

563
00:25:58,359 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 4: I'm one on one, I should be getting the ball.

564
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 4: That's that's the key here. It's like his Eagles offense

565
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 4: going to show up because I do think the Vikings

566
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 4: right now offensively to me are the better team.

567
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 3: They are.

568
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 4: You know, you could say there it's Carson Wentz. They're

569
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 4: not in that much of a rhythm either. They're still

570
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 4: better than Eagles on paper statistically in a lot of categories,

571
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,400
Speaker 4: and they don't have they even played the easiest schedule

572
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 4: the Wakens.

573
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 3: They've had a hard schedule as well.

574
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 4: And defensively they're getting guys back like Floresa's getting guys

575
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 4: back this week.

576
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 3: So yeah, I just it's a get right spot for

577
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 3: this Eagles team.

578
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 4: I think it's just another bad spot for them and

579
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 4: the publics walking into it. So, like Chad said, this

580
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 4: numbers moved. Hopefully you did get the two and a half.

581
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 4: I think you can be patient here. I think if

582
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 4: Quanya Mitchell gets cleared, Jayalen Carter gets cleared, hopefully it's

583
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:45,119
Speaker 4: Carson Wentz still, I think it could get back to

584
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,199
Speaker 4: two and a half. Off it's JJ, this could get

585
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:48,880
Speaker 4: up to three three and a half. Like this could

586
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:52,199
Speaker 4: really move if it's JJ McCarthy getting cleared here. But

587
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 4: everything I've seen from Koc, it seems like he wants

588
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 4: it to be Wentz in this game. He doesn't want

589
00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:00,439
Speaker 4: to just throw the rookie at eight percent. He is

590
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:03,120
Speaker 4: right now back into this type of game. So I'm

591
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 4: hoping Casey goes with Wentz, which I think is this

592
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 4: smart move. My model isn't great at higher and I

593
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 4: think he's smart enough to know why would you not

594
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 4: want to play the vet here, who's seen a lot

595
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:13,199
Speaker 4: a lot of stuff things are going to throw at him,

596
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 4: rather than JJ McCarthy making and what his third start

597
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:18,439
Speaker 4: now in the league, it's just not a good ideal

598
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:19,120
Speaker 4: spot for him.

599
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:20,880
Speaker 2: All would look, it's a tricky game.

600
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:22,439
Speaker 1: It's one of those games that we're going to have

601
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 1: to really nail down on Sunday when we got a

602
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 1: better sense of who's starting in everybody who is expected

603
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 1: to play because it is so dependent on quarterback and injury.

604
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 3: But that was a lot of games. We love this week.

605
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:39,919
Speaker 4: Like, if this is a tough week and I just

606
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 4: not having a lot of games, I probably would force

607
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 4: his winning because I do really like them on the

608
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 4: spot we're gonna see.

609
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:45,880
Speaker 3: I have like just a lot of games.

610
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 4: I like this week's surprise, and I think there's a

611
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 4: lot of really good numbers. Yeah, the public just keeps

612
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 4: overreacting to what happened last week, where this this year

613
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 4: has just been seesaw none of these these teams and

614
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,199
Speaker 4: origins is a difference is so slim. These are my

615
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 4: favorite years I've been into because it's like we just

616
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 4: over what we saw the week before rather than the

617
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 4: whole pitcher.

618
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 3: So there's a lot of games this week. I like

619
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 3: with the lines.

620
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 1: This next game, I don't want to spend too much

621
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 1: time on because I don't think we're going to do

622
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 1: anything with it other than to say Carolina and the

623
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 1: New York Jets. This line was at two, it's moved

624
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,439
Speaker 1: to one and a half. Betting the New York Jets

625
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 1: right now requires amnesia.

626
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 2: That's it.

627
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 1: We know it's the sharp side. We know it's what

628
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 1: everybody wants to play. We know what it looks like

629
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 1: from a metrics point of view. We know that Carolina

630
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 1: is coming off two dramatic wins, that they've done it

631
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 1: with running games against the two worst defenses in the NFL.

632
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 1: The Jets statistically are not the worst defense in the NFL,

633
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:49,520
Speaker 1: like the Cowboys, like the Dolphins. We know the Jets

634
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 1: of the right side. But it's going to take more

635
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 1: than brass balls to bet the Jets. It's going to

636
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 1: take forgetting everything we've seen about the Jets for the

637
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: past couple of weeks. I don't know if there's anything

638
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 1: more to say about it other than we're taking the Jets.

639
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:04,959
Speaker 2: It's not going to be in the contest. We're moving on.

640
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, who knows, Maybe i'll convince you something morning, But yeah,

641
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 4: I'm starting to really warm up to this Jets team

642
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 4: in the Jet spots because how much I do hate

643
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 4: it where it's like, like you said, we're playing the

644
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 4: number here. I can't let emotions get involved here. And

645
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 4: this is a good, a very good number for a

646
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 4: Jets team against a parallel Carolina Panthers team that we've

647
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 4: all seen it like, they just they haven't won as

648
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 4: a favorite in like, what is it chat five years

649
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 4: or something, maybe it's seven years.

650
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 3: It's something insane, So it's hard to.

651
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 2: Know, but I know it's not when we were betting them.

652
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 4: No, no, no, we definitely took positions on in his

653
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 4: favorites and lost along the way. But yeah, that's fair.

654
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 4: We're gonna make our fans do some gross things this week.

655
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 4: I don't know that's to be one of them, but

656
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 4: I'm definitely on the Jets.

657
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 1: We are going to make fans do gross things this week,

658
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 1: and that includes this next game, New England at Tennessee.

659
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 1: A buddy texted me the other day and he said,

660
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 1: this has to be brass balls. You know what, He's right?

661
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 2: Our brass balls better the.

662
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 1: Week presented by hard Rock Bat the Tennessee Titans plus seven.

663
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 3: You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.

664
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 1: Talk about not wanting to get to a spot. We

665
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 1: did not want to get to this spot.

666
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 3: Again.

667
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 4: People are listening to the show, SOS sharp, birsh Square.

668
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 4: This is the sharp side we know, and we know

669
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 4: the public side is going to be the Patriots. They're

670
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 4: going to be in every teaser. I'm sure you were

671
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 4: going to take them survivor contest. Just be careful, like,

672
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 4: even though it's not a huge advantage the first game

673
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 4: after the coach is fired, I do think these type

674
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 4: of scenarios where coach was so bad and it was

675
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 4: so negative and a lot of the stuff they lost

676
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 4: felt like it was self inflicted.

677
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 3: I do think these type of spots matter. And yeah,

678
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 3: it's it's gross.

679
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 4: Like if this was seven and a half, like it's

680
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 4: going to be for us most likely in the contest,

681
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 4: I would be banging the table. You have to grab

682
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 4: it right now because it's to me at seven, this

683
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 4: is right where it should be, Like this is a

684
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 4: good number, probably getting two free points. And Chad really

685
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:26,239
Speaker 4: talked about it's again there's always lazy stats, but there

686
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 4: are things to tick away from it. Three straight road

687
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 4: games for a team, that's a lazy stat, but it's

688
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 4: profitable to fade fading teams that are off three straight

689
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 4: road games, let alone they've already won two straight. This yeah,

690
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 4: all two straight wins, horrible horrible spots. So that that

691
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 4: to me is another thing where it's like, okay, we

692
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 4: have our favorite dead cat bounce with the new coach.

693
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 4: Now you're mixing in just how horrible of a spot

694
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 4: this is? If anyone can win it? It is variable,

695
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 4: but like you said, I think you said, it's like

696
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 4: a thirty win rate or something.

697
00:31:58,920 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 3: Horrible spot.

698
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'm with you, brother, like I'm I'm invested

699
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 4: in this, Tennessee. I bet a lot into this seven,

700
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 4: this plus seven. At this point, it's a lot of

701
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 4: safety in this number two. You're getting the seven. There's

702
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 4: no excuse. If this is five and a half, maybe

703
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 4: I could lie to Chad and talk them out of

704
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 4: it and try to get away from it. But at

705
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 4: this number, it's insane. It's so inflated. We got to

706
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 4: take it. And yeah, versus this type of game will

707
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 4: look like an idiot with that going on our face

708
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 4: Sunday night, or our fans who love and trust this,

709
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 4: they'll they'll see this is why we bet these spots.

710
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 3: It's all about the number.

711
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 4: Dorm a wat if you can't stay in Tennessee, you

712
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 4: don't watch it, because I agree, it's probably not gonna

713
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 4: be fun. But it is just so much about the

714
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 4: number in the spot here, And I love that you

715
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 4: brought up how the third.

716
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 3: Trade road game.

717
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 4: To me, that's all I needed to hear to really

718
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 4: get me behind this Tennessee team.

719
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans plus seven. That is our brass balls bet

720
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 1: of the week. Indianapolis at the LA Chargers. That game

721
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: is now at Chargers minus two. This was going to

722
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 1: be your assignment, says if we didn't go with Minnesota.

723
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 1: This one has moved as well, well, not as aggressively

724
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 1: moved from one and a half to two. You were

725
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 1: a little surprised that we didn't get feedback from sharp

726
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 1: calls on this. But I look at this game right now,

727
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 1: and I, like you, am kind of falling in love

728
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 1: with the Chargers and they seem to do this to

729
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 1: us every single week, and shame on us because when

730
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 1: we've been doing it, we've been betting them as short

731
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 1: road favorites and not as short home favorites. And I

732
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 1: feel like there's just got to be regression with Daniel Jones.

733
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 1: That's at the end of the day. That's what this

734
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 1: is about to me, is regression for Daniel Jones. It's

735
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: a five and one team that could just easily be

736
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 1: four and three, right or four and two, So.

737
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 2: That's my thought. I'm still with you on the try.

738
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, pretty chich In hard rock is that too? Because

739
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 4: most books have moved the minus one and a half. Again,

740
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 4: there's one book out there plus two and a half,

741
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 4: but that to me, will come down. That just means

742
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 4: one very very very smart professional group must have came

743
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 4: in heavy at this one book.

744
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 3: But to me, it should just be one and a half.

745
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 4: Like this, I don't know why the books are gonna

746
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 4: move it unless it is professional money, because to me,

747
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 4: it's just gonna be all public money on this Colts team.

748
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 4: Every bet, everyone I know is gonna be on the

749
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,320
Speaker 4: Colts team. And that's why I'm shocked more pros weren't

750
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:18,879
Speaker 4: lining up like we are on this Chargers team. You're

751
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 4: getting a team that I'm almost positive I've lost three

752
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 4: straight against the spread games. So to me, you're buying

753
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 4: very low on a Chargers team. And this we talked

754
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 4: all the time about coaches and spots. This is a

755
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 4: horrorball spot. This is the type of game that he

756
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 4: gets the guys up for. I mean, I'm gonna I'll

757
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,240
Speaker 4: look into maybe off on norths for us on Sunday.

758
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 4: I am assuming horrorball in his career has never between

759
00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:48,240
Speaker 4: college or pro, has ever lost four straight against the spread. Again,

760
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:50,879
Speaker 4: this is a guest, but it's like, if you look

761
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,840
Speaker 4: through his record, he's always well above five hundred wherever

762
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 4: he goes against the spread. So to go on this

763
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 4: type of run here is pretty wild. It just shows,

764
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 4: like we said last week that we were a part

765
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 4: of it. We were still overrating this Chargers team from

766
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:07,879
Speaker 4: what they did in the first couple of weeks, which

767
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,719
Speaker 4: happens in football right teams get banged up. Something that's

768
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 4: really exciting to me is Joe Alt was practicing this week. Yeah,

769
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 4: so that to me is a little sneaky thing that

770
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 4: he might be back in this game.

771
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:18,919
Speaker 3: And you know.

772
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 4: It's it's really we talked about the Daniel Jones regression.

773
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 4: I mean, what he's done against pressure has been ubseceneasts

774
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:29,920
Speaker 4: and I said that last week. I couldn't believe it

775
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:32,280
Speaker 4: was a real number. He went nine for nine last

776
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 4: week against pressure, which is just unbelievable.

777
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 3: The hot route.

778
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,359
Speaker 4: Connecting nine for nine in the hot reading hot route

779
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:42,399
Speaker 4: is just crazy. So I know we both know we're

780
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:44,239
Speaker 4: walking into it a little bit here against this Colt

781
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:47,360
Speaker 4: Steam and how good they've been. But like I said,

782
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,359
Speaker 4: no teams go perfect, no teams go fifteen to one.

783
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 4: It's just teams lose. Daniel Jones is gonna have a

784
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 4: bad game. This is a bad matchup. And on the

785
00:35:55,400 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 4: flip side for Herbert, you know he I think you'll

786
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:03,879
Speaker 4: get confident, especially if Joe altzback. His confidence will keep

787
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 4: growing and he'll feel more comfortable obviously dropping back and passing.

788
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 4: But like I said, horrorball spot for this Chargers team,

789
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:11,920
Speaker 4: Like this is the type of game where he wins

790
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 4: might be ugly.

791
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 3: Maybe we'll land on two.

792
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,399
Speaker 4: We're getting one and a half almost every book right now,

793
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,759
Speaker 4: Like that's such a great number, so you don't have

794
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 4: to take it here at hard Rock that hard Rock

795
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,879
Speaker 4: is usually a sharper book. Like we've seen, they usually

796
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 4: get smart money coming in on certain sides, so hard

797
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:29,959
Speaker 4: Rock could easily get up to two and a half.

798
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,759
Speaker 4: I could see professionals keep taking this Charger side. For

799
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 4: all of you out there, shop around, find the one

800
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 4: and a half. It's out there. I know the juice

801
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 4: isn't great usually minus went fifteen, Minus went twelve, but

802
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 4: I think it's worth paying. In the spot with his

803
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 4: line on this Chargers team.

804
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:48,319
Speaker 1: I also think the Colts are going to be a

805
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 1: public dog this week, and.

806
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:53,399
Speaker 3: So they're gonna be the biggest public dog.

807
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean any single time we can be fading

808
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,879
Speaker 1: the public dog, especially this season, I feel like that's

809
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:00,800
Speaker 1: the side we want to be in. Getting interesting to me,

810
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 1: Simon is I feel like we're narrowing dead on five

811
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,959
Speaker 1: on five that we really really like. I think there's

812
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 1: going to be one game that sort of is on

813
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 1: the on the edge that we'll talk about in a

814
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 1: little bit New York Giants at Denver. I don't think

815
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:18,400
Speaker 1: we need to spend too much time in this. I

816
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 1: don't think it's going to make it. I love it.

817
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 2: I totally love it.

818
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 1: It never got to the six and a half like

819
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:26,880
Speaker 1: I was hoping it would. It actually is moving closer

820
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 1: to seven half. You can see the juice and it's

821
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 1: heading in that direction. So my final statement on the game,

822
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 1: I think there's a defense advantage for the defensive advantage

823
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 1: for the Broncos. I think it's a home advantage for

824
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 1: the Broncos. I think it's a coaching advantage for the Broncos.

825
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 1: I don't think that camp Scataboo and Jackson Dart have

826
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 1: seen anything close to what the Broncos can do to

827
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 1: confuse them, to stop the run, to make it challenging,

828
00:37:56,120 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 1: to lock down their outside receivers with pascertain when they

829
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:04,320
Speaker 1: don't have a Lak Neighbors. Massive situation would have vanished

830
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 1: to me. I bet it at seven. I don't have

831
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,239
Speaker 1: to stand on ceremony about it. I think there's gonna

832
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:13,720
Speaker 1: be other games we want to put in. It didn't

833
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 1: come up in sharp calls. I don't know your strong

834
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 1: opinion on this.

835
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 3: No, I just haven't talked much about it.

836
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:22,320
Speaker 4: I took a position Sunday night on Giants seven and

837
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 4: a half, and that's honestly, that's it. There's just other

838
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,240
Speaker 4: games I like more, and there's just I don't trust Bonix,

839
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 4: I don't trust Denver, And like you said at seven

840
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 4: and a half, I could push back against you and

841
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 4: be like, oh, you gotta take a Giants here.

842
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 3: But I'm not dug in on this game at all.

843
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:42,240
Speaker 1: Washington ed Dallas, this one's moving. It was too it's

844
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 1: now one and a half. A lot of negativity around

845
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:50,920
Speaker 1: the Commanders right now. I think that game against the Bears,

846
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 1: it seemed like they were gonna win it. It seemed

847
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 1: like the Bears were giving it away. It seemed like

848
00:38:56,080 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels was moving well enough to slip by really

849
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 1: defenders in the backfield against the Bears, and then he

850
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:07,720
Speaker 1: converted some really nice plays on third and long against

851
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:12,959
Speaker 1: horrific horrific play calls from Dennis Allen. But people don't

852
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 1: like this defense. They don't think Jayden Daniels looks as

853
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 1: good as he did last year. He's been injured, and

854
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 1: people just love DAK. So the question is this Cowboys

855
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 1: defense is so unbetable right now? Are we willing to

856
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 1: take a shot with the Dallas Cowboys as home underdogs

857
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 1: because we love DAK more than we hate their defense.

858
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 4: I can answered the trends because I honestly I liked

859
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 4: the Commander show. I thought this was gonna be a

860
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 4: good Commander's spot because I just think they're like we said,

861
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 4: I think there are a better team than Cowboys. Colways

862
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:46,319
Speaker 4: just have a ton of injuries and DAK is the

863
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,120
Speaker 4: only thing you can really wrap your head around of

864
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 4: a reason to back this Cowboys team, and the numbers

865
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 4: back it up.

866
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 3: I mean I talked earlier the week, I.

867
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 4: Think in position on the under here, and I joke,

868
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 4: there's no way there's ever been a total this in

869
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:02,160
Speaker 4: this match between these two teams.

870
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,160
Speaker 3: I was wrong. So the last time.

871
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 4: They were fifty four the spread total was fifty four

872
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 4: or above was nineteen eighty in this matchup.

873
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 3: So it did happen. It was just forty five years ago.

874
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 1: Forty five years ago. Yeah, yeah, I'm pretty sure. I'm

875
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:19,880
Speaker 1: pretty sure. I watched that game. It was like, you know,

876
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:24,160
Speaker 1: Danny White and Drew Pearson against against Joe Thaisman and

877
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 1: the Smurfs.

878
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:28,840
Speaker 4: I couldn't believe that it's happened before because it's like, man, that's.

879
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 3: It's just such a huge total.

880
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 4: For a divisional game and just so many things go wrong.

881
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:37,719
Speaker 4: So yeah, that's that's shocked. That stats shocked me. Let's

882
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:39,799
Speaker 4: run throw the Cowboys stats because I just I was

883
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 4: trying to find why is there so much love by

884
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 4: the pros for this Cowboys team.

885
00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 3: It's got to be historical data. So let's go through it.

886
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 4: Their last eight games against the Commanders, there's seven to

887
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 4: one against the spread. This this Dallas team. That's four

888
00:40:56,000 --> 00:41:00,840
Speaker 4: straight covers at home. So okay, it's a team that

889
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 4: they at matchup well against again. You can even go

890
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 4: back to the Kirk Cousins years, even he struggled with

891
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 4: Washington against this Dallas team. So all right, let's dive

892
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 4: into Dak thing because it must be a Dak thing.

893
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,319
Speaker 4: Dak ten and three against Washington against the spread in

894
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:19,359
Speaker 4: his career, that's the best quarterback the last twenty years

895
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:22,359
Speaker 4: against Washington. He is six and oh straight up in

896
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 4: his career, five to one against the spread against Washington.

897
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 4: So I get it.

898
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 3: Maybe I won't force us to take this Washington just

899
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 3: because there's certain there's certain teams, and just in your.

900
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 4: Division, you have the number of I mean, ask tons

901
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:39,839
Speaker 4: of fans about certain quarterbacks in their divisions. It's just

902
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 4: like like the Roethlisberger thing against the Cleveland It was stupid,

903
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:46,959
Speaker 4: but I made a lifechanging amount of money betting Roethlisberger's

904
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:49,319
Speaker 4: money line against the Browns every time they played. He

905
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:51,839
Speaker 4: just I feel I can't remember if you ever lost them.

906
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 4: Only time I could think of as that playoff game

907
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:57,879
Speaker 4: with Baker. So it's like there's certain guys that are

908
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 4: just auto plays against certain teams. I guess the stats

909
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:03,399
Speaker 4: are telling me that with this Dak team. But it's like, dude,

910
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 4: Dak's defense. This is the worst defense he's ever had

911
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 4: in that whole career. But once again, it's the reasons

912
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:12,359
Speaker 4: to scare me off because I went through a lot

913
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 4: of those games. It really was Dak leading his team

914
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:17,920
Speaker 4: and a game and a couple of those to get

915
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:20,880
Speaker 4: the win and get the cover. So even when they

916
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:22,839
Speaker 4: didn't have great defenses in the last couple of years

917
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 4: of Dak's career, they've He's still played up and played

918
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:27,319
Speaker 4: well against him. So I don't have to deal with it.

919
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 4: I wanted to be on Washington. I can't afford to

920
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 4: be patient here. If you want Dallas, i'd grabbed the

921
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:34,919
Speaker 4: two and a half. I could see it. Like we said,

922
00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:36,439
Speaker 4: it's already one and a half year at hard Rock.

923
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 4: You better go grab two and a half because I

924
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:41,720
Speaker 4: think the pro's gonna keep betting it. I'll be patient,

925
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 4: I'll grab Washington. I just like this matchupespecially if Terry

926
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 4: mclaarin comes back, thinking him and Deebo this is a

927
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 4: great get right spot. And then you add in the

928
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:53,319
Speaker 4: fact that any team that wants to run the ball

929
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:55,839
Speaker 4: against his Cowboys team Ken and that's such a huge deal,

930
00:42:56,120 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 4: especially for.

931
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:58,080
Speaker 3: Guy like Jane Daniels that you've seen it.

932
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 4: Like Jad said, he's looked differ in this year when

933
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 4: he's in a guy he's third and ten rather than

934
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:04,479
Speaker 4: when he's third and five.

935
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 3: So this is just a good match up for Wes

936
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 3: Washington team.

937
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:10,279
Speaker 4: And it's just interesting me that pros are coming in

938
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:11,760
Speaker 4: so heavy on Dallas.

939
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 3: I just I can't believe it. I thought this was going.

940
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 4: To be, oh, Washington public and pros, but yeah, it's split.

941
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 4: It looks like it's gonna be the public on Washington

942
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 4: the pros are on Dallas.

943
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 1: I think all those trends are because Dak was on

944
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 1: a better team than the Commanders for the almost the

945
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 1: entire time he's played, So.

946
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 3: Teams are good. Yeah, that's fair though, that is fair.

947
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:38,719
Speaker 2: You know, I mean that's normally the case.

948
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:41,360
Speaker 1: Like it's Aaron Rodgers against the Bears, it's Broethlisberger against

949
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 1: the Browns, like you know, that's that's usually how it goes.

950
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:48,400
Speaker 1: I'm agnostic on this game, don't have a strong opinion

951
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 1: one way or the other. Let's talk about Atlanta at

952
00:43:52,120 --> 00:44:02,240
Speaker 1: San Francisco, because the wise Guy's coming in on San Francisco.

953
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 2: The other day when we were on the show.

954
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:08,359
Speaker 1: You completely talked yourself into the Falcons as we were

955
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:12,280
Speaker 1: discussing the game. I'm still hesitant because of brock Perdit.

956
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 1: He practiced on Wednesday. George Kittle practiced. By the way,

957
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 1: we don't know what the status is going to be.

958
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 1: We don't know if they're gonna be playing. But to me,

959
00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:21,879
Speaker 1: I really don't want to bet into a game where

960
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 1: I still don't know who the starting quarterback is going

961
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 1: to be for the team that I think might have

962
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:31,080
Speaker 1: a slight advantage if he's playing.

963
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:35,760
Speaker 2: So I don't want to bet in Atlanta.

964
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 3: All right, that's fair.

965
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 2: I just you love Atlanta.

966
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 4: I don't know if I love him, but I do

967
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:46,359
Speaker 4: love I love the number, and obviously it's moved here

968
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:46,839
Speaker 4: at hard Rock.

969
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 3: They're down to plus two. Yeah, two and a half.

970
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:51,840
Speaker 4: Like I talked about the time, It sounds stupid, but

971
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 4: I do think it's such a key number. At that number,

972
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 4: I was like feeling much better about the Falcons in

973
00:44:56,920 --> 00:45:01,239
Speaker 4: the sense that this game should be a better Like no,

974
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:04,440
Speaker 4: Fred Warner, I can't describe you how big of a

975
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 4: deal it is, especially like.

976
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:07,720
Speaker 3: Again, I hate the whole film culture.

977
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 4: I watch film no one else does, but if anyone

978
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:13,839
Speaker 4: that does watch film, it's noticeable how important he is

979
00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:14,479
Speaker 4: to that team.

980
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 3: He is the general.

981
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:19,360
Speaker 4: He he literally lines guys up. I felt like fifty

982
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 4: percent of their snaps, he's lining up their defenders time

983
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 4: exactly where they need to be. Because it's a young defense.

984
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,239
Speaker 4: We talked coming in the year, it's like Salah has

985
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 4: got to do a miracle job here because it's such

986
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 4: a young defense. They lost Nick Bosa and Fred Warner,

987
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 4: two guys they literally could not lose. I mean just

988
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 4: since twenty nineteen, no Nick Bosa, they're seven and fourteen

989
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:45,680
Speaker 4: against this, straight up seven and fourteen without Nick Bosa.

990
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 4: Now writing in Fred Warner, I can't get over how

991
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:49,320
Speaker 4: big of a deal it is.

992
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 1: And we don't even know how bad they are without

993
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:52,840
Speaker 1: Fred Warner because he's never missed.

994
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 4: Every leaps, yeah, never, never, And it's like I just

995
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:57,680
Speaker 4: can't get over the impact that maybe they get away

996
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:00,399
Speaker 4: with it here. But I think we're with an agree

997
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 4: it's our future bets, our positions on the forty nine.

998
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:03,840
Speaker 3: Ers, it's dead.

999
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:07,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're just to win a super Bowl, you need

1000
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 4: at least one absolute, no doubt leader on that defense

1001
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:13,719
Speaker 4: to be there. And this is the team that could

1002
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:15,439
Speaker 4: not afford it, and now he has gone and fret,

1003
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 4: and you know, it's it's interesting when you think about

1004
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:25,080
Speaker 4: this spot for this Falcons team, which again it's all

1005
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:27,640
Speaker 4: different because it's these are different quarterbacks, different pieces.

1006
00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:30,839
Speaker 3: But historically this is not a good spot for the Falcons. Right.

1007
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 4: They just had a huge win against the Bills at home,

1008
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 4: a team above five hundred. Yeah, since twenty eighteen games

1009
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:39,480
Speaker 4: following that, when they play another team above five hundred,

1010
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:42,600
Speaker 4: they're eleven and twenty two against the spread historically this

1011
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:44,880
Speaker 4: Falcons team, So I get it.

1012
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 3: Historically not a great spot.

1013
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 4: Maybe I'm the sucker on the Joe public here, but

1014
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 4: the line movement agrees with me. Like the two and

1015
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 4: a halfs are disappearing, there's twos out there, there's one

1016
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 4: and a half's out there now. So I can't be

1017
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 4: totally Joe Public here taking this position on the Falcon

1018
00:46:58,239 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 4: So I like it. Like Chad said, I'm betting it

1019
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 4: for a lot of the wrong reasons. That's why I'm

1020
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 4: not super confident about it. But at least I do

1021
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 4: have a good model number on. I do make this

1022
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 4: game a pick. I am getting two points of value

1023
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:11,880
Speaker 4: on Atlanta right now. So I'll take that position. But

1024
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 4: I just don't think the books have reacted enough to

1025
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:17,399
Speaker 4: how big of a deal Fred Warner is. And yeah,

1026
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:20,200
Speaker 4: great rock Pretty coming back, Kittle coming back. Obviously that's

1027
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 4: a huge deal, big upgrade to their offense. But I

1028
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 4: don't know. Totals forty seven, maybe I'll take the over

1029
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:28,600
Speaker 4: as well. It's like, I just don't know if they

1030
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 4: have a just enough to them losing their field general

1031
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 4: in this spot.

1032
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:34,440
Speaker 1: Well, look, you're the one thing you mentioned which I

1033
00:47:34,520 --> 00:47:36,800
Speaker 1: just keep forgetting and I don't know why is Fred Warner?

1034
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:40,840
Speaker 1: So that does change the calculus for me a little

1035
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:44,880
Speaker 1: bit in that Oh wait a second, this defense, I

1036
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:46,719
Speaker 1: know they'll fix things. I know Silo is a great

1037
00:47:46,719 --> 00:47:48,360
Speaker 1: coach and I got a lot of faith in him,

1038
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:52,319
Speaker 1: but this defense was really out of sorts after Fred

1039
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:55,239
Speaker 1: Warner went out. From a communication point of view, can

1040
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 1: they fix that? I completely disagree with you. The absence

1041
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:01,719
Speaker 1: of Fred Warner is a huge, huge challenge for the

1042
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:04,440
Speaker 1: Niners to overcome. So maybe on Sunday we have a

1043
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 1: different conversation. Yeah, it's all about that number, you know,

1044
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 1: We'll see what happens on Sunday two games that were

1045
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:11,719
Speaker 1: not I don't think we're going to be able to

1046
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 1: avoid the primetime games. First up, we've got Detroit as

1047
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:23,240
Speaker 1: a five and a half point favorite at home against

1048
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:26,719
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. Opened at five and a half, got bet

1049
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 1: down to four and a half. We loved it on

1050
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:31,920
Speaker 1: Tuesday when it was four and a half. We both

1051
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 1: bet into it.

1052
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:36,239
Speaker 2: At four and a half. It's now at five and

1053
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 2: a half. Kind of a dead number. I'd still bet the.

1054
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 3: Key number, though. You want to get it before it gets.

1055
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh yeah, you want to get it before it

1056
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:46,640
Speaker 1: gets to six. I mean between four and a half

1057
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:48,359
Speaker 1: and five and a half. I still like it at

1058
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:51,960
Speaker 1: five and a half. It's just I'm not going to

1059
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 1: walk away from Dan Campbell and Jared Goff in a

1060
00:48:55,600 --> 00:49:01,799
Speaker 1: dome with their offense basically healthy, in a get right

1061
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:05,880
Speaker 1: spot in prime time. They cover like seventy percent. You know,

1062
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 1: I'm not even exaggerating. I'm rounding up a little bit,

1063
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 1: but they just do like this is a smash cover

1064
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 1: spot for the Detroit Lions. And I know it pains

1065
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:20,759
Speaker 1: us to bet against Baker who's been so good to us, but.

1066
00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:26,120
Speaker 2: Lions, Lions, Lions.

1067
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:30,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I've talked about like Baker, I normally would

1068
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:32,319
Speaker 4: not be betting the spot because he's just been so

1069
00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 4: good to me as a dog. And you know, shout

1070
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:38,640
Speaker 4: to our guy, Evan Abrams had just amazing stat Baker

1071
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:42,600
Speaker 4: sixteen and eight against the spread as an underdog, covering

1072
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 4: by five point six points per game. And you know

1073
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 4: that's that's a real thing with him with the Bucks,

1074
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 4: like he since he's been the Bucks the dog, he's

1075
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:55,160
Speaker 4: been incredibly profitable. Now let's talk the other side, the

1076
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:57,840
Speaker 4: Cyberg betting, and why this is such a good spot

1077
00:49:58,040 --> 00:49:59,080
Speaker 4: for Golf and Campbell.

1078
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 3: So after a straight up loss Jared Goff.

1079
00:50:03,680 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 4: Campbell twenty and eight against the spread after a straight

1080
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:10,760
Speaker 4: up loss, and even better, they've won and covered eleven

1081
00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:13,399
Speaker 4: straight since twenty twenty two.

1082
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:17,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, a juggernut in this They.

1083
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:18,760
Speaker 2: Are magical in this spot.

1084
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:22,279
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell, in so many ways, I don't think it

1085
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:23,640
Speaker 1: can be overstated.

1086
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:25,640
Speaker 2: Everyone clearly sees he's a great coach.

1087
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 1: But the way he is coaching this team and the

1088
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 1: predictability of which they come back and don't get too

1089
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:35,719
Speaker 1: far down when they lose games, the way they lost

1090
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 1: against Kansas City of their night, this is not a

1091
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,439
Speaker 1: team that got that takes it.

1092
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 2: That goes into the dumps. Do you know what I mean?

1093
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:48,520
Speaker 1: Like psychologically they are like they are strong.

1094
00:50:50,640 --> 00:50:52,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, sorry I interrupt. I'm just so interesting.

1095
00:50:52,560 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 4: And I had a ton of pros reached out last

1096
00:50:54,040 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 4: week about why they loved Detroit so much was because

1097
00:50:56,840 --> 00:51:00,400
Speaker 4: it was a night primetime game. And I remember I

1098
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:01,560
Speaker 4: went to the numbers and I goes like, is it

1099
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 4: really that big of a deal. It's insane how good

1100
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:06,840
Speaker 4: Campbell and golf are in these nighttime games, which I

1101
00:51:06,880 --> 00:51:08,839
Speaker 4: didn't realize last week when we bet into it again

1102
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 4: when I change my bet, But I just like these stats.

1103
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:14,280
Speaker 4: I find it interesting as a favorite in night games.

1104
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:18,879
Speaker 4: Golf nineteen and three. Yeah that's nine and oh, well

1105
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:20,560
Speaker 4: I guess nine to one or nine and oh he

1106
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 4: has a favorite with the Lions. Ats y is golf

1107
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:26,400
Speaker 4: twenty five, ten and one against the spreads seventy one

1108
00:51:26,440 --> 00:51:29,200
Speaker 4: percent since he's been with the Lions, covering by more

1109
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 4: than nine five points per game.

1110
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:32,680
Speaker 3: It's all there, people.

1111
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:35,280
Speaker 4: It was scary not gonna lie last week betting against

1112
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:36,400
Speaker 4: that Lions team.

1113
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:38,359
Speaker 3: It's the same feeling we have this week.

1114
00:51:38,400 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 4: It doesn't feel good going against Baker here, trust the number,

1115
00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:44,520
Speaker 4: trust the spot. This does feel like a touchdown game.

1116
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:46,400
Speaker 4: So I do want people to grab it now. Like

1117
00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:48,239
Speaker 4: you said, at five and a half, it's kind of

1118
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:50,440
Speaker 4: a dead number if you're betting the dog as a favorite.

1119
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 4: It's a key number. You want to get this while

1120
00:51:52,080 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 4: you still can. So I love that we were able

1121
00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:55,680
Speaker 4: to give out the four and a half. Kind of

1122
00:51:55,680 --> 00:51:57,360
Speaker 4: wish I made, Simon says, and I had the balls

1123
00:51:57,360 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 4: to do it.

1124
00:51:57,680 --> 00:52:00,479
Speaker 3: But I thought professional money was going to bet down.

1125
00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:01,319
Speaker 3: I really did.

1126
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:04,759
Speaker 4: I thought professional public of coming on Tampa. It's totally

1127
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:06,799
Speaker 4: the other way. It's like eighty percent of the bets,

1128
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 4: eighty percent of the money is all on Detroit side.

1129
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 4: So I don't think it's gonna come down people. I

1130
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 4: just don't email. All the money's coming and still going up.

1131
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 4: So I just want you guys to get it before

1132
00:52:14,719 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 4: it gets a six and that key number.

1133
00:52:21,560 --> 00:52:23,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're not going to be able to avoid that one.

1134
00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:26,080
Speaker 1: I don't know how I'm going to get any sleep

1135
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:29,600
Speaker 1: over the weekend. Last game on the board, Houston. I

1136
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:31,520
Speaker 1: loved it the other day, A plus three and a half.

1137
00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:35,680
Speaker 1: I nearly made it Chad's choice. They're visiting Seattle late

1138
00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:39,239
Speaker 1: night Monday night doubleheader. I'm totally opposed to it. I

1139
00:52:39,239 --> 00:52:41,680
Speaker 1: could go Troy, I've been crazy on this idea.

1140
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:42,040
Speaker 3: But.

1141
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:47,799
Speaker 1: I like, until this morning, I was surprised and concerned

1142
00:52:47,800 --> 00:52:49,880
Speaker 1: that it did not move from three and a half

1143
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:52,399
Speaker 1: it has down to three, and then this morning it did,

1144
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:56,879
Speaker 1: and so uh, that was kind of the validation you know, I.

1145
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:59,200
Speaker 2: Needed that I need.

1146
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:02,040
Speaker 1: I need validation and positive feedback all the time in

1147
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:05,880
Speaker 1: every way, and moving that that, moving from three and

1148
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:07,840
Speaker 1: a half to three was the validation I needed on

1149
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 1: a Thursday morning.

1150
00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:12,040
Speaker 2: So I feel great. I feel great. I love it.

1151
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:14,439
Speaker 2: Let's bet it. It's already bet for me at three

1152
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:14,920
Speaker 2: and a half.

1153
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:17,439
Speaker 1: We're gonna put it in the contest. Someone's gonna watch

1154
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 1: this game. Not gonna be me.

1155
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:20,320
Speaker 2: I wake up Tuesday morning and be surprised.

1156
00:53:21,640 --> 00:53:24,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, I love love this match up for this Houston defense.

1157
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:27,880
Speaker 4: You know they have a number one shut down corner.

1158
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 4: Hopefully no one's been able to do it.

1159
00:53:30,880 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 3: He can.

1160
00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:33,400
Speaker 4: He can shut down Jayasien and that that to me,

1161
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:35,320
Speaker 4: will be a big deal to see how Sam Donald

1162
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:38,759
Speaker 4: does without his safety valve, because every time they need

1163
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:41,200
Speaker 4: a third down, he just goes to him and it's

1164
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 4: it's working, like Jackson said, with a jibba top two,

1165
00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:47,520
Speaker 4: top of three receiver in football right now, he's just

1166
00:53:47,560 --> 00:53:50,440
Speaker 4: playing out of his mind and Sam Donald is feeding him.

1167
00:53:50,480 --> 00:53:52,840
Speaker 4: So we got the right matchup. We have a shutdown

1168
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:55,360
Speaker 4: corner in this matchup. We have a D line in

1169
00:53:55,400 --> 00:53:57,760
Speaker 4: Houston that can get pressure, which we know Sam Donald

1170
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:00,239
Speaker 4: does not like. With four right, they don't need to

1171
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:04,360
Speaker 4: rush five they can. And the trends, like the trends

1172
00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:08,279
Speaker 4: here are just incredible where I know people have talked

1173
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:10,040
Speaker 4: a little bit more about it the general public, but

1174
00:54:11,280 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 4: the McDonald on the road thing is real. This guy

1175
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:17,399
Speaker 4: and his teams are different teams on the road, we're

1176
00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:20,520
Speaker 4: at home. In his career, he's four and eight straight up,

1177
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:24,280
Speaker 4: three to nine against the spread. Again, short, small sample,

1178
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:27,439
Speaker 4: but this is getting into year two now and these

1179
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:30,799
Speaker 4: things are holding true. So I like it a lot

1180
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:32,880
Speaker 4: for the Texans. And then we add in the fact

1181
00:54:32,880 --> 00:54:37,399
Speaker 4: that you know they they had a bye week, and

1182
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:41,120
Speaker 4: when you're having these early bye weeks in the year,

1183
00:54:42,080 --> 00:54:43,719
Speaker 4: it is such a big deal. And you can see

1184
00:54:43,719 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 4: with certain teams they do have their legs back. And

1185
00:54:46,760 --> 00:54:48,920
Speaker 4: when you look at these numbers on the data, and

1186
00:54:49,000 --> 00:54:52,200
Speaker 4: it's like, okay, let's look at teams that you know,

1187
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:54,960
Speaker 4: they played a primetime game, right, their last game was

1188
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:58,040
Speaker 4: a primetime game, and they had a bye week, and

1189
00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 4: now they're coming back after fifteen days Is that too

1190
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:03,720
Speaker 4: much rest? So teams with a total of fifteen days

1191
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:06,360
Speaker 4: off and then they're on the road since two thousand

1192
00:55:06,400 --> 00:55:09,839
Speaker 4: and three, twenty and eleven against the spread in this exact.

1193
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:12,359
Speaker 3: Spot, so they get up for it.

1194
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:14,799
Speaker 4: There's no dragging their feet, right, It's not like they're

1195
00:55:14,840 --> 00:55:17,600
Speaker 4: at home, you know, going through the motions. They're on

1196
00:55:17,640 --> 00:55:20,520
Speaker 4: the road in a tense environment, and they're historically these

1197
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:22,640
Speaker 4: teams get ready to play in these spots. So, like

1198
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:25,360
Speaker 4: Chad said, it's it's really about the number three and

1199
00:55:25,400 --> 00:55:28,480
Speaker 4: a half. Such a great number here for this Houston team,

1200
00:55:28,560 --> 00:55:31,760
Speaker 4: this defense against the Seattle team that is it very talented.

1201
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:34,480
Speaker 4: They're warranted that number, but it's a little inflated, feels

1202
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:37,520
Speaker 4: a little overpriced. And the fact that there's a rest

1203
00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:40,719
Speaker 4: of sparency here, the fact that you know, Seattle is

1204
00:55:40,760 --> 00:55:43,239
Speaker 4: just a different team now at home, it's like all

1205
00:55:43,280 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 4: of us we're still living the Beast Quake era, right,

1206
00:55:45,080 --> 00:55:47,680
Speaker 4: We just remember that Seattle, New Orleans States.

1207
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:50,560
Speaker 3: That's that home field advantage. It has not been true

1208
00:55:50,560 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 3: over the last couple of years. That's not been the

1209
00:55:52,239 --> 00:55:54,800
Speaker 3: case these last couple of years. So three and a

1210
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:55,800
Speaker 3: half key number.

1211
00:55:56,400 --> 00:55:58,880
Speaker 4: Chad said, we might be on two Monday night games

1212
00:55:58,880 --> 00:55:59,680
Speaker 4: in our contest.

1213
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:01,279
Speaker 2: I don't know what we're gonna talk about it on

1214
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:01,960
Speaker 2: Sunday night.

1215
00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:05,480
Speaker 4: We'll be fired up. Hopefully we're not sitting there own three.

1216
00:56:05,920 --> 00:56:08,400
Speaker 4: They're dying to go two and oh on Monday night.

1217
00:56:08,680 --> 00:56:10,640
Speaker 2: Well, you might miss the show because you're getting a haircut.

1218
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:13,640
Speaker 1: If that's the case, Simon, Simon, I'm going to recap

1219
00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:16,360
Speaker 1: everything that we're thinking about for Sunday morning in a second,

1220
00:56:16,360 --> 00:56:20,280
Speaker 1: but first, give me your biggest bets right now.

1221
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:23,480
Speaker 3: Pull up those pants and be a man.

1222
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:26,359
Speaker 4: I've taken a pretty large position here on this Houston game,

1223
00:56:26,400 --> 00:56:33,399
Speaker 4: Detroit game, Chargers, Vikings, Tennessee. I'm probably gonna get there.

1224
00:56:33,680 --> 00:56:35,440
Speaker 4: I don't know about Atlanta yet, but I'm like, the

1225
00:56:35,480 --> 00:56:36,960
Speaker 4: more I talk about the more I start to love it.

1226
00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:39,360
Speaker 4: So yeah, as you city right now, like my biggest

1227
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:41,240
Speaker 4: positions if you can get to Houston three and a half,

1228
00:56:41,600 --> 00:56:44,239
Speaker 4: join me lines as long as we're getting under six,

1229
00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:46,560
Speaker 4: that's gonna be one of my bigger positions. And uh,

1230
00:56:47,200 --> 00:56:49,480
Speaker 4: you know, we'll see about this Tennessee line, Like I

1231
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:52,120
Speaker 4: have a lot on the sevens. If it gets six

1232
00:56:52,120 --> 00:56:53,959
Speaker 4: and a half, I won't be putting that much into it.

1233
00:56:53,800 --> 00:56:55,320
Speaker 4: If it's if it's all six and a half across

1234
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:57,600
Speaker 4: the board comes Sunday, it won't be one of my

1235
00:56:57,600 --> 00:56:59,680
Speaker 4: bigger bets. We city right now, I've taken a pretty

1236
00:56:59,760 --> 00:57:01,680
Speaker 4: large position on this Tennessee team a plus seven.

1237
00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:02,839
Speaker 2: I love that.

1238
00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:06,440
Speaker 1: It's one of the rare weeks where I think you

1239
00:57:06,520 --> 00:57:10,759
Speaker 1: and I are completely in lockstep, like there might not

1240
00:57:10,920 --> 00:57:14,920
Speaker 1: need to be any convincing when it gets to Sunday.

1241
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:17,080
Speaker 2: Well, we'll see. I think there might be one game

1242
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:19,200
Speaker 2: that requires a little bit of convincing.

1243
00:57:22,400 --> 00:57:26,640
Speaker 1: My dog blocks your dog, your dog blocks mon dog.

1244
00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:32,000
Speaker 1: Our money line, round robin, underdog parlay. This is who

1245
00:57:32,040 --> 00:57:41,880
Speaker 1: I put in Vikings, Titans, Jets, Falcons, and Texans.

1246
00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:46,840
Speaker 4: Let's take out uh Tennessee and put in Dallas. That's

1247
00:57:46,880 --> 00:57:50,840
Speaker 4: asking a lot that win back Tennessee.

1248
00:57:50,600 --> 00:57:55,320
Speaker 1: My on deck was the Cowboys, the Cowboys, the Colts,

1249
00:57:55,320 --> 00:57:55,960
Speaker 1: and the Jacks.

1250
00:57:56,040 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 2: So I'm happy to take out and again.

1251
00:57:58,480 --> 00:57:59,320
Speaker 3: We hit last week.

1252
00:57:59,400 --> 00:58:01,560
Speaker 4: Finally the Dogs came through and we hit last week

1253
00:58:01,960 --> 00:58:03,160
Speaker 4: that Chicago.

1254
00:58:04,000 --> 00:58:05,840
Speaker 1: I was having a hard time with the favorites probably,

1255
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 1: to be honest, I couldn't figure out who I wanted

1256
00:58:07,760 --> 00:58:08,160
Speaker 1: to put in there.

1257
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:08,760
Speaker 2: Who do you think?

1258
00:58:09,640 --> 00:58:11,480
Speaker 4: Well, first of one, with the record show you did

1259
00:58:11,520 --> 00:58:13,640
Speaker 4: miss I did give out the Rams last week?

1260
00:58:13,840 --> 00:58:15,160
Speaker 2: Oh did I miss that?

1261
00:58:15,360 --> 00:58:15,880
Speaker 3: Okay? Yeah?

1262
00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:17,800
Speaker 4: Which is again, as long as the fans bet it

1263
00:58:17,840 --> 00:58:19,440
Speaker 4: and made some money off of That's all I honestly

1264
00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:21,800
Speaker 4: care about. Because I'm betting this soft too, And it's

1265
00:58:21,840 --> 00:58:23,720
Speaker 4: like I couldn't believe I bet it and then didn't

1266
00:58:23,720 --> 00:58:25,320
Speaker 4: give them a show. It's like, how did I? How

1267
00:58:25,320 --> 00:58:29,160
Speaker 4: did I miss that one? Yeah, it's it's an interesting

1268
00:58:29,160 --> 00:58:32,360
Speaker 4: week for favorites. You know, I'm not going to put

1269
00:58:32,360 --> 00:58:35,680
Speaker 4: the Chiefs in and minus eight fifty, But if you

1270
00:58:35,720 --> 00:58:38,040
Speaker 4: want to do the same thing I did with Green

1271
00:58:38,080 --> 00:58:40,280
Speaker 4: Bay take them down to minus five and a half,

1272
00:58:40,880 --> 00:58:42,040
Speaker 4: I'd be willing to put that in.

1273
00:58:43,280 --> 00:58:44,280
Speaker 3: If people hear this in time.

1274
00:58:44,280 --> 00:58:46,520
Speaker 4: If you want to get Pittsburgh in there minus two seven,

1275
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:50,400
Speaker 4: even though it's like a trap spot, very stinky, it's

1276
00:58:50,400 --> 00:58:52,920
Speaker 4: still worth the value to me getting them in there.

1277
00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:55,360
Speaker 4: But let's get to the actual ones we're going to

1278
00:58:55,440 --> 00:58:58,720
Speaker 4: put in. So give me the Bears minus two twenty five.

1279
00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:00,880
Speaker 4: I know it's not ideally the best spot, but still

1280
00:59:00,880 --> 00:59:03,840
Speaker 4: Spencer Rattler on the road, guys only won won one

1281
00:59:03,880 --> 00:59:06,240
Speaker 4: game in his career. We got to take the Bears

1282
00:59:06,280 --> 00:59:10,840
Speaker 4: in that spot, especially at minus two twenty five. Patriots

1283
00:59:10,840 --> 00:59:14,240
Speaker 4: they're minus three forty five. I'm not crazy about that one.

1284
00:59:14,280 --> 00:59:16,320
Speaker 4: It feels like that's that's been bet up. I mean

1285
00:59:16,320 --> 00:59:18,120
Speaker 4: it's it's literally getting nine percent of the money in

1286
00:59:18,160 --> 00:59:20,760
Speaker 4: the bets right now, so that is that is pretty crazy.

1287
00:59:20,800 --> 00:59:22,720
Speaker 4: But we don't We only have so many options, so

1288
00:59:22,760 --> 00:59:24,800
Speaker 4: we have to put that one in. Yeah, give me

1289
00:59:24,840 --> 00:59:28,920
Speaker 4: the Chargers minus one thirty. We really like that spot

1290
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:30,960
Speaker 4: for the Chargers team. That'll help us eat up some

1291
00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:34,000
Speaker 4: of these big chalk favorites we're taking. Which again, Green Bay,

1292
00:59:34,040 --> 00:59:36,439
Speaker 4: we can put them in there. They're minus three forty five.

1293
00:59:37,280 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 4: I know you love Denver. I'm on board with it.

1294
00:59:39,160 --> 00:59:42,120
Speaker 4: They're minus two sixty. And the last one we have

1295
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:47,840
Speaker 4: to get in there Detroit minus wow, minus two fifty

1296
00:59:47,960 --> 00:59:51,000
Speaker 4: right now, so that's six yeah, yeah, because I want

1297
00:59:51,000 --> 00:59:52,520
Speaker 4: to put I want to put them in case people

1298
00:59:52,560 --> 00:59:55,480
Speaker 4: miss between the if you don't want to put the

1299
00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:57,040
Speaker 4: Steelers in, if you don't put.

1300
00:59:56,960 --> 00:59:58,960
Speaker 3: The Chiefs adjusted line in, I want to give out

1301
00:59:58,960 --> 00:59:59,800
Speaker 3: a plenty of options.

1302
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:04,880
Speaker 1: That's six after those two Green Bay Bears, Patriots, Chargers,

1303
01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:05,960
Speaker 1: Detroit and Denver.

1304
01:00:06,640 --> 01:00:07,360
Speaker 3: I like it again.

1305
01:00:07,400 --> 01:00:09,360
Speaker 4: I did six last week. I'll do six again this week.

1306
01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:13,120
Speaker 4: We've been talking about it. It's been really good for

1307
01:00:13,160 --> 01:00:15,880
Speaker 4: the favorites. Last week we got some really good, out

1308
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:19,680
Speaker 4: outright dog wins, but still favorites this year.

1309
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:22,040
Speaker 3: It's overwhelming how much they're they're winning out right.

1310
01:00:23,640 --> 01:00:24,120
Speaker 2: All right.

1311
01:00:24,200 --> 01:00:33,920
Speaker 1: So the underdog parlay Vikings, Cowboys, Jets, Falcons, Texans, the

1312
01:00:34,000 --> 01:00:34,800
Speaker 1: favorite parlay.

1313
01:00:34,920 --> 01:00:35,680
Speaker 2: We're going big.

1314
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:38,240
Speaker 1: If you can get the Chiefs minus five and a

1315
01:00:38,280 --> 01:00:42,320
Speaker 1: half and you can get the Steelers tonight Thursday Night Football,

1316
01:00:42,880 --> 01:00:49,480
Speaker 1: grab it. Otherwise the Packers, the Bears, the Broncos, the Chargers,

1317
01:00:49,680 --> 01:00:54,360
Speaker 1: the Patriots, the Lions. I mean, we're out of survivor.

1318
01:00:54,680 --> 01:00:58,120
Speaker 1: But if we were playing, I would say the Chiefs.

1319
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:00,920
Speaker 3: I don't hate it.

1320
01:01:01,360 --> 01:01:03,640
Speaker 4: I still have a couple of lefts. I might put

1321
01:01:03,680 --> 01:01:08,120
Speaker 4: Chiefs in one of them. I'm not, like Chad said,

1322
01:01:08,120 --> 01:01:10,840
Speaker 4: this is probably tougher week. So that's probably the safest

1323
01:01:10,840 --> 01:01:16,320
Speaker 4: option to take. I do have two of them that

1324
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:18,960
Speaker 4: like I need to use I already you know, I

1325
01:01:19,000 --> 01:01:20,840
Speaker 4: want to save the Chiefs. So I'm taking the Patriots,

1326
01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:25,200
Speaker 4: but I'm with Chad. Safest one this week for survivor feels.

1327
01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:29,080
Speaker 1: Like the Chiefs sharp versus square. We both won last week.

1328
01:01:29,120 --> 01:01:33,200
Speaker 1: I had the Panthers, you had the Chiefs. I defer

1329
01:01:33,240 --> 01:01:33,960
Speaker 1: to you, good friend.

1330
01:01:36,320 --> 01:01:42,680
Speaker 4: Uh, God, this is a tough one.

1331
01:01:42,720 --> 01:01:47,760
Speaker 3: I guess I gotta do it, gotta gotta take the lines.

1332
01:01:47,920 --> 01:01:49,800
Speaker 3: Give me the Lions minus five and a half.

1333
01:01:50,120 --> 01:01:53,200
Speaker 2: God, you know what. That's that's fine, that's fine.

1334
01:01:53,200 --> 01:01:54,200
Speaker 3: I almost say the Chargers.

1335
01:01:54,240 --> 01:01:56,680
Speaker 2: But I'm surprised you didn't do the Chargers.

1336
01:01:56,760 --> 01:01:56,920
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1337
01:01:56,960 --> 01:01:59,320
Speaker 4: I just feel more confident about feel safe about those

1338
01:01:59,360 --> 01:02:00,000
Speaker 4: golf stats.

1339
01:02:00,040 --> 01:02:01,680
Speaker 3: He's just the moneymaker in these spots.

1340
01:02:01,920 --> 01:02:04,960
Speaker 1: I'm taking Houston. I'll take the plus three for me.

1341
01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:08,040
Speaker 1: It came down to Houston, the Chargers, and the Lions.

1342
01:02:08,080 --> 01:02:10,440
Speaker 1: So since you took the Lions, I don't love. I

1343
01:02:10,440 --> 01:02:14,360
Speaker 1: don't love the Chargers, you know too much, So I'm

1344
01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:18,000
Speaker 1: taking Houston at plus three. The games that I think

1345
01:02:18,040 --> 01:02:22,440
Speaker 1: we're gonna have a conversation about Cleveland minus two and

1346
01:02:22,440 --> 01:02:28,840
Speaker 1: a half, Tennessee plus seven, Detroit minus five and a half,

1347
01:02:28,880 --> 01:02:32,800
Speaker 1: Houston plus three three and a half if we can

1348
01:02:32,840 --> 01:02:35,920
Speaker 1: get it, and the Chargers minus one and a half.

1349
01:02:37,040 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 1: I think we're gonna want to see what's happening on

1350
01:02:38,960 --> 01:02:42,480
Speaker 1: Sunday with Minnesota. I think we're gonna want to see

1351
01:02:42,480 --> 01:02:45,800
Speaker 1: what's happening with Atlanta and the Niners. And I think

1352
01:02:45,800 --> 01:02:47,600
Speaker 1: we're gonna want to see what's happening with the Saints.

1353
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:50,000
Speaker 1: I think they'll still I think they're still going to

1354
01:02:50,040 --> 01:02:51,880
Speaker 1: be in the conversation, to be honest.

1355
01:02:52,720 --> 01:02:56,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, we again, it's it's always scary. Like last week.

1356
01:02:56,320 --> 01:02:59,240
Speaker 4: I you know, we had a tough get into the five.

1357
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:00,640
Speaker 4: This week it feels like you have like two or

1358
01:03:00,640 --> 01:03:02,440
Speaker 4: three rounds to kick to the curb comes Sunday.

1359
01:03:02,720 --> 01:03:06,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, all right. This has been Sharper Square, part

1360
01:03:06,640 --> 01:03:08,720
Speaker 1: of the Volume podcast Network. We will be back on

1361
01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:12,880
Speaker 1: Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. You're going to get

1362
01:03:12,880 --> 01:03:15,840
Speaker 1: to easdrop on an intimate conversation between me and my

1363
01:03:15,880 --> 01:03:19,520
Speaker 1: bff and we're going to make utterly human decisions and

1364
01:03:19,640 --> 01:03:21,640
Speaker 1: be miserable the rest of the day. We will be

1365
01:03:21,720 --> 01:03:24,920
Speaker 1: back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven point thirty

1366
01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:27,120
Speaker 1: pm Eastern to recap.

1367
01:03:26,720 --> 01:03:28,280
Speaker 2: All the misery that will be live.

1368
01:03:28,400 --> 01:03:31,040
Speaker 1: Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video,

1369
01:03:31,040 --> 01:03:34,680
Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel. Also, download some Spotify Apple Pods

1370
01:03:35,000 --> 01:03:38,200
Speaker 1: wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe me this

1371
01:03:38,200 --> 01:03:40,720
Speaker 1: spot stars state whatever you want, feedback is it?

1372
01:03:40,720 --> 01:03:40,919
Speaker 2: Gift?

1373
01:03:41,000 --> 01:03:49,800
Speaker 1: Until next time, Love you,