WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Neil Dutta & Kit Juckes

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, see.

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<v Speaker 2>What best idea on a Friday and odd Friday. The

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<v Speaker 2>year starts Thursday. Friday, get into a weekend, Michael Barr's

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<v Speaker 2>got to see what Vikings Lions do. And then the year,

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<v Speaker 2>I guess really starts on Monday, except nobody bothered to

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<v Speaker 2>tell the markets. We had the Tesla shortfall and unit sales.

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<v Speaker 2>We had a buoyant seat of the tape before that

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<v Speaker 2>sell off on Thursday. We'll see what happens on Friday.

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<v Speaker 2>As we speak now we're up, but I don't trust it.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll have to see on that into the beginning of

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty five. What we know for certain is the

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<v Speaker 2>dollar is front and center. I've really made a mission

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<v Speaker 2>with our team of bookers to really do better on

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<v Speaker 2>foreign exchange and what it means for people that wouldn't

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<v Speaker 2>know euro yen from euroswissy. And the answer is you

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<v Speaker 2>need good conversation. Here were the economists Neil Dutta. Neil

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<v Speaker 2>Dutta on the stronger US dollar and the American economy.

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<v Speaker 3>When you have like one percent currency moves, that's a

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<v Speaker 3>big deal, right, I mean, so I think the dollars

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<v Speaker 3>concerning across multiple dimensions. I mean, number one, obviously it

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<v Speaker 3>weighs on US exporters, particularly manufacturing. That's number one. Number two,

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<v Speaker 3>going back to the equity market discussion, it weighs on earnings, right,

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<v Speaker 3>particularly for tech companies that are global in nature, and

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<v Speaker 3>because that's been a big driver of US stock prices.

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<v Speaker 3>I think the fact that the dollar has been strengthening

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<v Speaker 3>is going to weigh on earnings and by extension way

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<v Speaker 3>on stocks.

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<v Speaker 2>A treatment there from an economist on the US dollar

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<v Speaker 2>Neil Dutta, of course, just incredibly optimistic two years ago

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<v Speaker 2>when so few were, and now with some real caution

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<v Speaker 2>on the American economy, just just lining up the labor economy.

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<v Speaker 2>The view out certainly's moved away from optimism to at

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<v Speaker 2>realism of the growth of post pandemic America. We spoke

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<v Speaker 2>to a foreign exchange pro kit Jukes icultruly iconic. I

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<v Speaker 2>don't use the word often iconic. It's society general suckgen

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<v Speaker 2>is out of Paris, and they take an immense pride

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<v Speaker 2>in their derivative mathematics or study of the financial dynamics

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<v Speaker 2>of the market. And wrapped around that as his authoritative

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<v Speaker 2>coverage of foreign exchange. He knows that within the broad

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<v Speaker 2>study of foreign exchange, there's the dynamics and various of

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<v Speaker 2>interest rates between two countries, but separately the flows of

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<v Speaker 2>capital as well. Money's been flowing to America. Kit Jukes

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<v Speaker 2>of Suckchen.

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<v Speaker 4>In my world, the flow story is the long term vulnerability.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, the value of US assets that's held by

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<v Speaker 4>foreigners is more than twenty one trillion dollars more than

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<v Speaker 4>the value with foreign assets held by Americans. And that

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<v Speaker 4>number blows my mind. So but you can see what

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<v Speaker 4>it is. Treasury yields a higher, the growth stronger, the

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<v Speaker 4>equity market's fantastic, all the other equity markets in the

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<v Speaker 4>world that appear to be set to close, so that

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<v Speaker 4>we just have one exchange called America or whatever. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>so I see that flow as sucking in all the

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<v Speaker 4>world's excess savings from the countries to do allowing the

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<v Speaker 4>US to finance this fantastic growth.

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<v Speaker 2>Uh, Kit Chooks, it sucked. Jen. I want to take

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<v Speaker 2>a moment here and talk about this podcast. We invented

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<v Speaker 2>this after I studied the podcast business and saw fabulous

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<v Speaker 2>podcasts like The Big Take or Odd Lots all you

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<v Speaker 2>know them, hundreds and hundreds of people doing this, and

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<v Speaker 2>they're all like fifteen minutes, twenty minutes, twenty five minutes.

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<v Speaker 2>And you know, I sat with my senior producer on this, Brocton.

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<v Speaker 2>He's very good at telling me no, and I said,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, I really need to do a thirty minute podcast,

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<v Speaker 2>and his eyes crossed over and Brockton said, no, that's

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<v Speaker 2>wicked dumb, and so we're not doing that. What we're

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<v Speaker 2>doing is two insights sometimes three of the show and

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<v Speaker 2>of the many conversations. And what I love about it

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<v Speaker 2>is each and every day it's very hard to pick

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<v Speaker 2>out the two most worthy insights today. Obviously we did

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<v Speaker 2>a thema for an exchange we hope to build out.

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<v Speaker 2>This podcast is a bolt on to your podcast listening

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<v Speaker 2>each and every day. You've got David Gera that you

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<v Speaker 2>have to listen to, and Tracy the other guy who's

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<v Speaker 2>with Tracy, Why is it Joe the Stalwart? You know,

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<v Speaker 2>Joe Wisenthal and Tracy and many other podcasts out there

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<v Speaker 2>from other news organizations. And we look at this just

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<v Speaker 2>a small four minute vignette. We're on YouTube. Podcast. It's

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<v Speaker 2>the best way to get us single best idea