1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast pot All right, 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: here we go. 3 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:14,760 Speaker 2: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, Horny Cody five 4 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 2: fifty and the kick as Black Comic Football Stundus. 5 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, please. 6 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 3: Stumbled and bumble the lateral turn a car on the 7 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 3: inside gus LA. 8 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:35,879 Speaker 1: Table off the Field to Night. 9 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 2: It's not the side of the dog in the fight, 10 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 2: it's the size of the. 11 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 1: Fight in the dog. 12 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcasts. This is 13 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 2: the Group of five Deep Dive. I'm Mike Calibery's joined 14 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 2: as always by Mike Iinello. We're gonna go through the 15 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 2: week thirteen card in G five lands, get into our 16 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 2: Hero of the Week from week two twelve, into our 17 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 2: best bets, the G five High five and the money 18 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 2: line underdog parlay. But before we get to the G 19 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 2: five Hero of the Week from week twelve, there's lots 20 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 2: of good options there. So I'm excited to hear what 21 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 2: Ianello has to bring to the table. Let's talk very briefly. 22 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 2: I know this is the G five focused podcast. Let's 23 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 2: talk about the playoff just for a moment, because we 24 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 2: talk about, you know, during the spring in the NFL Draft. 25 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 2: It's proud graduation day for our G five guys. We 26 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 2: get to puff out our chest. Well, we have a 27 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 2: team that's number four in the projected field right now 28 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 2: in Boise State. They certainly earned it. It's been the 29 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 2: gang that can't shoot straight out of the Big twelve. 30 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:37,839 Speaker 2: They continue to slide backwards. As long as Boise keeps winning, 31 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:39,759 Speaker 2: they're at least going to have an opportunity to get 32 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 2: that first round by which seems like absolute fiction. Back 33 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 2: in August, we assumed and everybody assumed that they would 34 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 2: just be the number twelve team penciled into that five 35 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 2: to twelve matchup, having to go on the road, going 36 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 2: the hard way to try to make a run on 37 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 2: the college tooball playoff. But now if they move into 38 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 2: the de facto Elite eight, that's really interesting for a 39 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 2: Boise team. And also get some extra time for gent 40 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 2: to get one hundred healthy. I know he's been playing 41 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 2: through some injuries, so lots of interesting angles there, But 42 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 2: let's zoom out for a moment. As I said, expands 43 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 2: our purview to the entire field. What are your thoughts 44 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 2: around all of this bluster and arguing and conference supremacy 45 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 2: and let's bring on Danny Canel so we can get 46 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 2: beat up by Pate on his show. All of these 47 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 2: people taking one side or the other. Is it Big Ten? 48 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 2: Is it Indiana apologists? Is it SEC fans puffing out 49 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 2: their chest? What are your thoughts on what's going on 50 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 2: in this year? Was becoming the most contentious playoff field 51 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:33,839 Speaker 2: and argument leading up to the actual field that we've 52 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 2: seen so far. 53 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, which, I'll be honest, I thought it'd be the opposite. 54 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm very excited for the you and me 55 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 1: have argued about this for three years. I'm very excited 56 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 1: for the twelve team playoff. I think it'll solve all 57 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 1: these arguments. So why we continue to have them is 58 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 1: the dumbest thing ever. I know You've talked about it 59 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 1: like having this show is so stupid and it just 60 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 1: makes all the most powerful people have the Tuesday reveal show. 61 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 1: All it does is make the quote unquote most powerful 62 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: people in college football looks so stupid and so so 63 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: brain dead. You have Joey Galloway talking about Curtis. They 64 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: should sit Curtis for work against Ohio State so he 65 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: doesn't get hurt. You have Booger saying something about like 66 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 1: Penn State didn't like, didn't look convincing against Ucla, Like 67 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 1: they smoked Ucla. Ucla had zero point zero chance of 68 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 1: winning that game from the moment the ball kicked off, 69 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:32,399 Speaker 1: So like that's something who like, Okay, but you didn't 70 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 1: watch that game. You just like look at the box 71 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 1: score and it like, I don't think we covered. I 72 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: think we won by like seventeen instead of twenty eight. 73 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 2: You scored right at the ends and went for a twosion. 74 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 1: With the Illinois game is if you know, I forget 75 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 1: who it is. Some Twitter account tweets the success rate 76 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 1: differentials and Penn State over Illinois was the most in 77 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 1: the entire country that week, even though the score was 78 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 1: kind of close. And that was when like the SEC 79 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 1: teams are still playing like schools of the ball and 80 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 1: we dominated Ucla. But if you or Illinois, but if 81 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 1: you just checked the score, it wasn't that convincing. I 82 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: am just getting so annoyed and so frustrated with the 83 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 1: SEC teams that are all sitting there jumbled up crying 84 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,119 Speaker 1: about strength to schedule. Strength of schedule is the worst 85 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 1: argument in sports, because a you set the goddamn schedule. 86 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 1: This isn't like you know the NFL, where it's just 87 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: based on your divisions and you get screwed out of 88 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: the lock of the draw. You make the schedule. All 89 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: these SEC teams crying about having to play each other 90 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:36,840 Speaker 1: seven times, You guys voted to expand the conference. You 91 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 1: wanted this. You wanted to try to kill the Big 92 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 1: twelve by pulling in Texas. You started this whole thing 93 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:44,720 Speaker 1: that killed the Pac twelve. You're trying to kill the 94 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 1: acc out back taking like Florida State and all them 95 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:50,280 Speaker 1: you wanted this. Don't cry about having to play Texas 96 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:54,599 Speaker 1: and Oklahoma when you wanted him in Buddy Elliott. Bud 97 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:56,599 Speaker 1: Elliott says this all the time, and it's the perfect saying, 98 00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:59,719 Speaker 1: take the check, take the losses. I don't want to 99 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 1: hear you trying that you would do with Gallant. Also, thes' 100 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 1: is not a gallet this year, Like, oh, we have 101 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,360 Speaker 1: to play Arkansas in Florida. Arkansas is terrible. I don't 102 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 1: want to hear the Gallant. You have to play Texas, 103 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 1: has play anyone who's Texas's best win Michigan, Colorado State, Vandy, 104 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 1: Like I don't hear anything about Oh Texas. You know 105 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 1: people can plain about Penn State and Indiana. Sure, yeah, 106 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 1: I'm a Penn State fan. I'm not like, I don't 107 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: really have a problem with where Penn State's ranked. And 108 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 1: you know, you can make it argument one with the other. 109 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 1: Penn State. Tansel has been easy, But like, so is Texas. 110 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 1: Why is Texas ranked ahead of US? Why is SAX 111 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: ranked Indiana? And this is how delusional SEC fans are. 112 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 1: I'm convinced Indiana would be getting more respect and SEC 113 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: fans would have no problem with where they were ranked. 114 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:46,800 Speaker 1: If they played Alabama and lost by fifty, they'd be well, 115 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:50,479 Speaker 1: they played Alabama, good for them. But because they just like, like, 116 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: I don't know how losing to good teams is somehow 117 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 1: better than beating bad teams like that does? That concept 118 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 1: has never made sense to me. If Tennessee wanted to 119 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 1: be ahead of Georgia, beat him, you're not. You didn't 120 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 1: you suck? Like Okay, Indiana hasn't played Georgia, Well guess 121 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 1: what they're going in the playoff. I don't need to 122 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 1: see Tennessee du it again. Tennessee proved they can't beat Georgia. 123 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:15,720 Speaker 1: Do I think Indiana can beat Georgia. No, I want 124 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 1: to see it. I already saw Tennessee not do it. Now, 125 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:19,720 Speaker 1: let's see Indiana try. Let's see b why you try. 126 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: Let's see Colorado try. Let's see Boyse try. I don't 127 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 1: need to see these dog shit SEC teams that think 128 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 1: they're good because they play the same conference as teams 129 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:29,840 Speaker 1: that have won national championships in the past. You had 130 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 1: your chance, you lost, get out of the paint. I'm 131 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 1: so like, why Missouri's even Ryan? Who is a joke? 132 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:37,160 Speaker 1: I just it makes me so frustrated. And the whole 133 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:39,280 Speaker 1: point of playoffs is to not wargue about this because 134 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 1: everyone controls their own destiny. The whole point of this 135 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 1: was to avoid the Florida State situation, to take the 136 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: human element, to take the committee being like, well, I 137 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:48,479 Speaker 1: think this team is better than that team. You don't 138 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 1: have to do it because if you lose three times, 139 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 1: you have no business being in this and if you don't, 140 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 1: if you didn't, you'll have your shot. Tennessee had their shot, 141 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 1: they had it against Georgia. They lost. I don't want 142 00:06:57,360 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 1: to hear anything about it. Don't say all we deserve 143 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 1: to be in the playoffs because be beat Florida. I 144 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,040 Speaker 1: don't care you stink, get out. 145 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 2: I think with the college hoball playoff needs. You know, 146 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 2: they'll release statements. Sometimes they'll have committee members go on 147 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 2: these shows from time to time and basically read a 148 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 2: statement and they get softball questions. I want like an 149 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 2: old school, contentious White House briefing room press secretary situation 150 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 2: and fill it up with all of the partisan media 151 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 2: members who are carrying the water for the sec people 152 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 2: who believe that Indiana should be ranks where they are. 153 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 2: Have them all there and have them answer the questions, 154 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 2: because I think very quickly if there was an opportunity 155 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 2: for the committee to go on the offensive and say 156 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 2: things that we all know that they're already doing, which 157 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 2: is moving the goalpost. It seems like every single year 158 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 2: there's a different value placed on the wins that you 159 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 2: have the strength to schedule the you know, whether players 160 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 2: get hurt or not get you know, are healthy. This 161 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 2: came into play last year with Florida State. If there 162 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 2: was a press secretary that stood up there and said, 163 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 2: just at FYI, if Indiana loses by thirty eight points 164 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 2: to Ohio State, that one loss is enough kick him 165 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 2: out of the playoff. I think everybody in the collegeable 166 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 2: universe would go, all right, that seems fair. If they 167 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 2: lose by seven, they absolutely should be in the field. 168 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 2: With eleven regular season wins, Let's just move on to 169 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 2: the next thing. Like the way that you play does 170 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 2: matter the actual games. But I agree with you. This 171 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 2: idea that oh, you lost to a quality team, so 172 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 2: that loss doesn't count, it doesn't hold water for me 173 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 2: because you do get the benefit on the other side, 174 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 2: which is you get these mulligans. You can lose two games. 175 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 2: No one's saying that Georgia shouldn't be in the field, 176 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 2: but Georgia looks awful and some of their losses, Carson 177 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:35,680 Speaker 2: Beck looks absolutely lost. I think it's, you know, Penn 178 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 2: State takes you know, rightful amount of hate for their 179 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 2: quarterback play and their questions against Ohio State, but what 180 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 2: about Carson Beck in some of these big games. I 181 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 2: just don't think that anything is even handed at this 182 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 2: point because there's no leadership in the room from the 183 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:54,080 Speaker 2: committee allowing this you know, conversation to just go in 184 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:56,320 Speaker 2: circles over and over again every Tuesday. 185 00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 1: And here's the nice thing I'll say, about the SEC too, 186 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:01,840 Speaker 1: is like, okay, you guys play a Goallet like just 187 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 1: call your regular season a playoff because it is like 188 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 1: you've already played the playoff games. I know your big 189 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: complain about the twelve team playoff was has always been like, 190 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 1: we're just gonna get the same four teams anyway, So 191 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:13,520 Speaker 1: who cares? Fine, and I agree with you for the 192 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 1: most part, we will get the same four teams. So 193 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 1: the way I view the first round is answering the 194 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: what ifs, the well, how do we know Florida State's 195 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:23,839 Speaker 1: not as good? They didn't play those teams. How do 196 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:26,320 Speaker 1: we know if Indiana's good? They haven't played anybody, Like, 197 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:28,560 Speaker 1: we don't know if Indiana can beat these teams. 198 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,679 Speaker 2: Are already going a step further where they're saying Indiana absolutely 199 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 2: should not get home field of Damageby as their schedule. 200 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 2: So you're already taking more away from these what if teams. 201 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 2: But that's an issue that I have. 202 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 1: A SEC fans said the same exact thing all last 203 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:46,960 Speaker 1: year about Michigan's cupcake schedule, and then Michigan beat Alabama 204 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: won the national title. I get the helmets different, and 205 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 1: Indiana is not known as a powerhouse. But how do 206 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 1: we know Indiana can't beat Georgia. We know Tennessee. Tennessee 207 00:09:57,280 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 1: already made the playoffs. They lost their first round playoff 208 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,679 Speaker 1: game against Georgia. Now four weeks later, Indiana, we'll get 209 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 1: to play a playoff game against Georgia. Look at the 210 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 1: you know, the SEC always claims their king, so like 211 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 1: we have the king of the SEC. And then the 212 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 1: first round is basically to see what other teams match 213 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:17,679 Speaker 1: up against the SEC. And then if what these fans 214 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 1: claim is true, the SEC teams will move on and 215 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:22,079 Speaker 1: we won't have anything to do with But the teams 216 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 1: already played them don't deserve another shot at them like 217 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:29,439 Speaker 1: you had. Tennessee had their their playoff game and Iana hasn't. 218 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 1: Let's get it. 219 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 2: So the last thing I'll say, I think there's been 220 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 2: a lot of chatter around Indiana saying, all right, if 221 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 2: I'm an SEC school, just you know, schedule cupcakes once again. Georgia, 222 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 2: if they get into a resume comparison with the Committee, 223 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:45,840 Speaker 2: they have that Clemson win that helps them not only 224 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 2: to get into the field, but also potentially instead of 225 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 2: being eleventh or tenth, moving up to eighth and getting 226 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,439 Speaker 2: to host a game in Athens. They earned that because 227 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 2: they scheduled, and I really this is once again that 228 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 2: vacuum of not having a press secretary, not having someone 229 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 2: to say what they're probably thinking, but they don't want 230 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 2: to come out and directly say it, Like just give 231 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 2: some parameters or give some kudos and also label and 232 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 2: enumerate the pitfalls of having a schedule like Indiana had. 233 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:15,560 Speaker 2: So if they did that, I think would be in 234 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 2: a much better place. I understand this is the ratings 235 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:20,199 Speaker 2: bonanza that they were hoping for, and it's creating all 236 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 2: this conversation in November around fifteen to sixteen teams. Where 237 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 2: it used to be really three or four teams could 238 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 2: win the national title. That's still the case. There's only 239 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 2: three or four teams in my opinion, that can reel 240 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:32,880 Speaker 2: off three or four wins in this playoff. But it 241 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 2: has expanded the conversation speaking of anger conversations, because I 242 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 2: can already feel our editors chopping up this segment. So 243 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:43,359 Speaker 2: let's hop into the G five heroes. 244 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 1: From Well, I have another take and it's G five related, 245 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 1: so it ties back to us. 246 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 2: Okay, there you. 247 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 3: Go, we gotta get you back on twip. 248 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 1: I don't know if it's a hot take or not, 249 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:52,439 Speaker 1: but I think it's a hot take, and I think 250 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 1: you'll disagree with me, which is why I want to 251 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:56,679 Speaker 1: bran up here. I'm pretty confident Tulane is the best 252 00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 1: team in the group of five. I think Tulane is 253 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: a better over team than Boise status. I think, obviously 254 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 1: to Boise is very dependent on genty. He's the best 255 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:09,600 Speaker 1: player in the country. Their one weapon is a phenomenal weapon. 256 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,679 Speaker 1: He gently leads the country in rushing kay hugheses fifth, 257 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:15,560 Speaker 1: the Tulian running game is awesome. It's you know, it's 258 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 1: not at that level, but it's pre damn close. 259 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 2: And I trust Why wasn't it awesome against Case State 260 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 2: in Oklahoma? 261 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: I mean it was Alli in the year they had 262 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 1: a whole new coach. 263 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 2: Sure, yeah, so was the Oregon game. Boise showed up 264 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:30,319 Speaker 2: for that one. I listen, I'm okay with the conversation 265 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 2: broadening to Tulane if Boise drops a game, But this 266 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 2: idea that they just beat the doors off a Navy 267 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:40,439 Speaker 2: whrvath is hurt. So it's like, I'm not saying it's 268 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 2: a totally useless statum. 269 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 1: Even the play defense is very very good, and I 270 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:47,960 Speaker 1: don't think Boise defense is very good. And you know, 271 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:50,720 Speaker 1: I still think Boise deserves to make the playoff, because 272 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 1: they just that. This isn't like a playoff conversation. It's 273 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 1: more as like, I think Tulane is a better team, 274 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 1: and I will say playoff wise. I sat down last 275 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 1: night and did a little math for you. So let's 276 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:02,960 Speaker 1: put on my nerd cap for a second show off 277 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 1: is penzed education. I'll try to do as quickly. Here's 278 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,080 Speaker 1: here's my Tulane math at FANDLE and tell me if 279 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 1: you think I'm on the right page. Here, Boise is 280 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:13,079 Speaker 1: minus three hundred to win the Mountain West. That is 281 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:17,199 Speaker 1: an implied probability of seventy five percent chance winning. They're 282 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:20,079 Speaker 1: also plus two forty to not make the playoff, which 283 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 1: is twenty nine zero point four percent. So even right there, 284 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:25,679 Speaker 1: the math isn't really checking out. But if you say 285 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 1: there's seventy five percent chance that Boise wins the Mountain West, 286 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 1: that means there's a twenty five percent chance they don't 287 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 1: make the Mountain West. Now, Tulane is minus two eighty 288 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 1: to win the American that's a seventy three point seven percent. 289 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:46,440 Speaker 1: So if you do the twenty five percent chance Boise 290 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: does not make the Mountain West, which means they won't 291 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 1: make the playoff, and the seventy three point seven percent 292 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 1: chance to Tulane wins the AAC, you get eighteen point 293 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:59,079 Speaker 1: four percent that Boise loses Tulane wins the American If 294 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 1: that's the case, I think too clearly the representative because 295 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 1: they would have bet just beaten Army and they already 296 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 1: beat Louisiana, so that takes the sound out of it. 297 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,360 Speaker 1: Eighteen point four percent chance that Boise loses Tulane wins 298 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 1: translates to a fair value of plus four forty two. 299 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:17,720 Speaker 1: You can get two aliane plus five twenty to make 300 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 1: the playoff. Do you see any value in that number? 301 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 1: Knowing here's the thing that makes me a little nervous 302 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,440 Speaker 1: and that the numbers will change this happens. Is I 303 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 1: think you're gonna need ULV to make the playoff, So 304 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 1: you're to make the Mountain West title game, you're gonna 305 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 1: need NLV to play Boisse. I think Kloradvish State has 306 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: no chance. Collier State may lose this week, which would help, 307 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 1: but that might change the numbers. So do you think 308 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: there's any value in taking two lane plus five twenty 309 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 1: seeing as they're the clear favorite to win the AC 310 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 1: and that's a much better number than you're gonna get 311 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 1: UNLV on the money line, who I know you love? 312 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 1: Are you kind of based back in UNLV by taking 313 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 1: that too lane to make the playoff price or do 314 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 1: you think that's a fair number given the fair value. 315 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 2: I'll answer it in two parts. First, I think your 316 00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 2: math is mathing properly. I think you've gone ahead and 317 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 2: identified value. And this is the time of year when 318 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 2: sports books are super stingy in the futures market. I 319 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 2: just tweeted out about this. They have Army to go 320 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 2: undefeated in the regular season at twelve to zero at 321 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 2: plus seven hundred. If you just do a rollover, they're 322 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 2: plus five fifty to beat Notre Dame in this game, 323 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 2: you know, on Saturday, let alone the other two games 324 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 2: against Navy, which is after the AAC title game but 325 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 2: still counts for the regular season. In this bet and UTSA, 326 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 2: you can get north of probably fifteen to one if 327 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 2: you just do a rollover and they win every single game. 328 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:30,800 Speaker 1: How about even just in fact you have Boise minus 329 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 1: three hundred to win the Mountain West but minus three 330 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 1: thirty to make the playoff. They can't make the playoff. 331 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 2: They right, Yeah, so a lot of it doesn't make sense. 332 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 2: I just think that the likelihood of Colorado State losing 333 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 2: is not quite there, and I don't like Colorado states 334 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 2: chances against Boise. We can agree to disagree. I think 335 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 2: Boise's defense, while flawed, does some things incredibly well. Namely, 336 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 2: they create negative plays at such an insane rate, and 337 00:15:57,080 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 2: they're able to get home on blitzes and getting healthy 338 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 2: down the stretch to something I'll talk about in our 339 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 2: picks for this week that's gonna be play a big 340 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 2: element of where they are defensively. All right, g five heroes, 341 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 2: Why don't you kick it off here after our long 342 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 2: preamble about everything? Playoff only fifteen minutes late. 343 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 1: Lob, Well, I'm gonna make this long too. I'm taking 344 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 1: Cole best r, J Perry, Derek Bowman, Andrew Kilfoyle and 345 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 1: Zane Herring. Do you know who those five guys are? 346 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: Offensive lineman, the South Florida offensive lineman South Florida who 347 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 1: has had a tough year. They were like the sneaky 348 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 1: dark horse in the American They've had injuries, they've underperformed. 349 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: They ran for four hundred and twenty five yards and 350 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 1: six touchdowns against Charlotte. They did kill our friend Biff Rip, 351 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 1: but it was a full team effort because South Florida 352 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 1: had nine different players rush for at least ten yards. 353 00:16:57,840 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 1: They averaged eight point six yards per carry on a 354 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 1: team as a team on forty eight rushing attempts. Charlotte 355 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 1: had just one tackle for loss. Of their four hundred 356 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:09,919 Speaker 1: and twenty five yards, two hundred and forty five of 357 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:14,400 Speaker 1: them came before contact. These guys were just clearing holes 358 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 1: that you and me could run through. So I wanted 359 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: to give a shout out to the entire Bulls offensive 360 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 1: line for just absolutely mauling Charlotte and dominating in a win. 361 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 1: So give me the Bulls offensive line here. 362 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 2: Our little version of the G five Joe Moore Award 363 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 2: right there. I like that a lot. I'm actually jealous. 364 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 2: I didn't come up with that idea. I think this 365 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 2: season I'm going to go with Devin Dan Pierre, our 366 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 2: man from New Mexico. The Lobos get the huge upset 367 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,439 Speaker 2: over Wazoo. Not only is it one of their biggest 368 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 2: wins in school history. It puts them on tracks, it 369 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 2: potentially gets a bowl game at six and six. Yeah, 370 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 2: I think we ought to just pause for a second. 371 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:51,880 Speaker 2: The field got stormed at the University of New Mexico. 372 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 2: I don't know the last time that's happened. Dan Pierre 373 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 2: one hundred and ninety three on the ground, four total 374 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 2: touchdowns because the game winning rushing touchdown at twenty one 375 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 2: seconds left against the Kougs. As I mentioned, they get 376 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 2: Hawaii next week, then get to that six to win, 377 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 2: and if they do so, that's great for the minor 378 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 2: bowl games. It's something near and dear to my heart. 379 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 2: I love those midweek weird bowl games that arguably nobody watches. 380 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 2: But it's really for US college football siccos I need 381 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,639 Speaker 2: a really fun offense like New Mexico and what Bronco 382 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 2: Mendenhall has been able to put together in year one 383 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:26,679 Speaker 2: speaking of this comment is directed at the five oh 384 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 2: five Sports Venture Foundation for those non in the No, 385 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 2: that's the nil arm for New Mexico Athletics. Find at 386 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 2: least a million dollars to keep Dempier around because he 387 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:38,680 Speaker 2: is going to be a hot name in the portal. 388 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 2: I need exciting, high scoring late night Mountain West Conference 389 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:45,639 Speaker 2: action for years to come with the Lobos. Get Brian 390 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 2: or Lacker on the phone. Danny Granger, I think made 391 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 2: seventy million in the NBA, Get him to throw in 392 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,240 Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty K. Get this guy a bag 393 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:55,879 Speaker 2: and keep him. If Boise he can keep Gens in 394 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 2: the conference. New Mexico, you got to do your part. Please, 395 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 2: please please damp Pierre doing special things with his legs 396 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,200 Speaker 2: in the conference because just a lot of fun to watch. 397 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,320 Speaker 2: That game was wild, that come back for the Lobos. 398 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:09,959 Speaker 2: All right, let's hop into best bets. You told me 399 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,080 Speaker 2: confidently you're gonna go first. You thought that there was 400 00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:14,119 Speaker 2: a chance that I may be stealing your best bet, 401 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 2: so laid on me Week thirteen. What's the top of 402 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:16,960 Speaker 2: your card? 403 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:18,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I gotta go. I'm going back to the well 404 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: the darlings of the podcast, the most bet upon team 405 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 1: for us for this season, not always successfully, but I'm 406 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 1: ryding him again. Arkansas State minus three against ul Monroe. Look, 407 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 1: I love Brian Vincent and it's been a great story 408 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:34,199 Speaker 1: to start they had, but this is still a bottom 409 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 1: twenty five team in the country. They got off to 410 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 1: a really good start, starting five to one, but they 411 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:42,400 Speaker 1: beat Jackson State, they beat you, they beat you ab 412 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,679 Speaker 1: and the revenge spot of the season, they beat Troy 413 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,680 Speaker 1: in a gross thirteen to nine game. You know, James 414 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 1: Madison was a good win. I'll get them that. That 415 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 1: was a good one. JAMU outgained about one hundred and 416 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 1: fifty yards and missed a two point version that would 417 00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 1: have tied it. And then they beat someone missed who 418 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: is just an abomination. Since then, they've lost you, South Alabama, 419 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 1: Mark Marshall, Texas State, and Auburn. They only even covered 420 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:06,920 Speaker 1: against Marshall. Their defense is getting absolutely torched. ULM ranks 421 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,399 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty fourth in the country in success 422 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 1: right on defense. They have allowed an average of forty 423 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,679 Speaker 1: points per game in their last four games. They've especially 424 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 1: been torched on the ground, and that has been actually 425 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,280 Speaker 1: the biggest improvement for Arkansas State recently down the stretch. 426 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,160 Speaker 1: In their first five games this year, Arkansas State averaged 427 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:30,399 Speaker 1: in ninety three point eight rushing yards per game. In 428 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 1: the first five they had four rushing touchdowns. Well, they 429 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 1: have averaged two hundred and twenty one point four rushing 430 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 1: yards over the last five games, and they have ten 431 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns in those games. Jock webs Cross has really 432 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 1: gotten going. Zach Wallace operates as the goal lineback, and 433 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:48,760 Speaker 1: then Rayner has really dangered his legs and he's been 434 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 1: using them more recently and establishing the run has really 435 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,360 Speaker 1: helped Rayner just calm down. He hasn't thrown an interception 436 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:59,239 Speaker 1: in the last four wins and that's always minigate him 437 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 1: back to the football win the game. Ulm has just 438 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,719 Speaker 1: five interceptions all season. They have one pick in their 439 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 1: last seven games, So if Rainer can keep the ball clean, 440 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,639 Speaker 1: Arkansas State should run all over this Warhawks defense. And 441 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 1: you know, Ulm's offense is one hundred and thirty first 442 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 1: in the country. So as bad as you know the 443 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:22,360 Speaker 1: Arkansas State defense has been, the Ulm offense is absolutely horrendous. 444 00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 1: So I don't expect much from them. I'm just way 445 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:29,400 Speaker 1: higher on this Red Wolves team. Much better have my money, 446 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 1: give me your boys, much better have my money. 447 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,239 Speaker 2: I'm gonna bring this up early because it was going 448 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 2: to be in the G five high five, but I 449 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 2: have a play for this game as well. I like 450 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 2: under fifty two and a half for starters. You talked 451 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,959 Speaker 2: about Monroe and how poor they play offensively, they protect 452 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 2: themselves by playing so slow, almost thirty one seconds between plays. 453 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 2: That's one hundred and thirty third in the entire country. 454 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 2: And really the question is can they slow in the 455 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 2: Arkansas State passing attack? Because I agree stride has been 456 00:21:57,760 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 2: made on the ground by the Red Wolves, but when 457 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 2: they carved teams up and when Rainer is really dealing, 458 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 2: they can score a lot of points. But ULM forty 459 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,879 Speaker 2: six and coverage per PFF thirty fifth and passing success 460 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,240 Speaker 2: rate defense, that to me at least says that they 461 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 2: should be able to limit some of the aerial explosives. 462 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 2: You can run on them all day long. You pointed 463 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 2: out there one hundred and twenty six in success rate 464 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 2: against the run, but they're twelfth in limiting rushing explosives. 465 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 2: So as long as they're requiring Arkansas State to put 466 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 2: together six seven, eight nine play drives, I think the 467 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:29,920 Speaker 2: clock is going to work in our favor here. And 468 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,320 Speaker 2: when you look at those long, methodical drives from the 469 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 2: Warhawks a mad Hardy in Sunbelt Conference games, he's averaging 470 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 2: twenty carries per contest one hundred and twenty nine yards 471 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,240 Speaker 2: from scrimmage. When you add in his receiving yards as well. 472 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,119 Speaker 2: And Arkansas States run defense, they can't stop anybody one 473 00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 2: hundred and thirty second there, so they're near the bottom 474 00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 2: end line yard stuff rate, tackling turn this game into 475 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 2: a running clock situation. Fifty two and a half is 476 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,399 Speaker 2: a number that I have circled as one of my 477 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 2: favorite on the board here, so I got to go 478 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,880 Speaker 2: under there. We'll tag that on and drop that into 479 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 2: the G five high five. As for my best bet 480 00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 2: here in week thirteen, gonna go with the team that 481 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 2: is just hot as a pistol. I'm very happy to 482 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,720 Speaker 2: say that UTSA has turned their entire season around. They've 483 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 2: been a darling of this podcast for years. Meet me Bye. 484 00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:15,840 Speaker 2: Everything going big in San Antonio, getting it back on 485 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,359 Speaker 2: the tracks after a really poor start to the season. 486 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,920 Speaker 2: They're hosting Temple. The Owls landed on the endangered species 487 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 2: lists this fall. Every FBS head coach of an AL 488 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,160 Speaker 2: team has now been fired, including Temple's Stan Drayden, who 489 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 2: finished nine and twenty five in North Philly. They fired 490 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,359 Speaker 2: him after an eighteen fifteen overtime win over FAU the 491 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 2: rare but unfortunate situation both head coaches getting fired after 492 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 2: that game, even the head coach that won. Really, I mean, 493 00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:44,920 Speaker 2: you don't have to go that deep into the box score. 494 00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:46,680 Speaker 2: You can just pull up the schedule. When things have 495 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 2: gone wrong for Temple this season, they've gone really wrong. 496 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,159 Speaker 2: They lost to Tulane by forty six, twenty two, to 497 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 2: ECU twenty eight, to Army twenty seven, to Navy forty eight, 498 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 2: to Oklahoma utsa. As I mentioned mean, while there are 499 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 2: going in the right direction, offense is absolutely cooking with McCown. 500 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:03,920 Speaker 2: In his last five games, he's averaged three hundred and 501 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 2: seventy six total yards of offense, and the offense as 502 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,440 Speaker 2: a whole has averaged over forty points per game in 503 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 2: that stretch those five games. If you watch that North 504 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 2: Texas game, they were the explosive offense, not the mean 505 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,359 Speaker 2: green I was lucky to get the over as my 506 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 2: best bet last week with a late meaningless rushing touchdown. 507 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 2: But they're hittingen explosives on the grounds. They are really 508 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 2: efficient with McCown slinging the ball around. The play calling 509 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 2: has just the right mix of run and pass keeping 510 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,600 Speaker 2: defenses honest and Temple is kind of in a tailspin. 511 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 2: So really the question here is motivation on both sides 512 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 2: and does Temple have an answer in any way, shape 513 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 2: or form. Bowl eligibility is right on the table for 514 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 2: the road Runners, so I don't foresee them overlooking Temple. 515 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 2: They want to get this win. They certainly want to 516 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,440 Speaker 2: win convincingly in front of their home crowd. And when 517 00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:48,440 Speaker 2: Temple is down, they're going to go to one guy, 518 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 2: and that's Dante Wright. He's a bowler. He's coming off 519 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,640 Speaker 2: a fourteen reception one hundred and forty seven yard game. 520 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 2: But Utsa, as I mentioned, just grounded the unt passing attack. 521 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 2: They put Chandler Morris on his off foot the entire game. 522 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 2: He was scrambled, He's trying to throw across his body. 523 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,880 Speaker 2: They were doing things in terms of the pre snap look, 524 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,120 Speaker 2: mixing coverages, getting pressures from different angles. I think they're 525 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,600 Speaker 2: gonna put whoever Temple ends up rolling out at quarterback. 526 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:14,720 Speaker 2: We could see two or three different quarterback options for 527 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,239 Speaker 2: the Ls in this game. I think Temple is going 528 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:18,879 Speaker 2: to have the same issues they've had basically for the 529 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,640 Speaker 2: whole season. They failed to score three touchdowns in five 530 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 2: of their last six games. I don't think they get 531 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,040 Speaker 2: to three touchdowns here, which means can I get forty 532 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,680 Speaker 2: out of Utsite? Absolutely go with the Roadrunners. 533 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it. I almost been with our boy 534 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,920 Speaker 1: Robert Henry as the other G five here after there's 535 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,439 Speaker 1: a three yard touchdown run two minutes left to hit 536 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 1: that over. Yeah, my only fear and out there. One 537 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,520 Speaker 1: of the games you and me had discussed earlier was 538 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:46,480 Speaker 1: Bowling Green Balls State. That's on my cutting far. I 539 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 1: feel like the fired coach bump. Interim coach has cashed 540 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 1: every single I think everyone has cashed is so far 541 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:56,399 Speaker 1: this year. I would say I'm less worried about Temple 542 00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 1: getting a bump, but that was why I didn't keep 543 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,400 Speaker 1: I didn't Bowling Green in mind, as I do think 544 00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 1: Bowling Green on paper is the much better team and 545 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 1: should win by two touchdowns against fall State. But I 546 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:09,800 Speaker 1: just worry about the That one made me a little 547 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 1: more worried about the that's at home that you know, 548 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 1: you get the interim coach bump from that one, so 549 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 1: I don't hate it as much for yours. Like you know, 550 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,359 Speaker 1: UTSA should they're rolling right now. They should step on 551 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:22,720 Speaker 1: the throat all. 552 00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,240 Speaker 3: Right before we move on, quick announcement for you guys, 553 00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 3: Action Network is running back our annual Black Friday sale, 554 00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:29,960 Speaker 3: offering our best price of the year on a year 555 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:31,680 Speaker 3: long Action Pro subscription. 556 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:35,359 Speaker 2: So if you still aren't a Pro subscriber. 557 00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:40,600 Speaker 3: Visit actionnetwork dot com slash Black Friday to get forty 558 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:44,719 Speaker 3: dollars a year off of Pro and receive instant access 559 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,880 Speaker 3: to all of the picks and projections from myself, Colin Calibres, 560 00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,720 Speaker 3: and our whole Action Network team. That's Action Network dot 561 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,440 Speaker 3: Com Slash Black Friday for the best price of the 562 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:56,720 Speaker 3: year on Action Pro. 563 00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,120 Speaker 2: All right, let's go into the G five High Five. 564 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:03,200 Speaker 2: I mentioned my Arkansas State Monroe under so that's one 565 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,520 Speaker 2: of my two editions here in week thirteen. You're doing 566 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:07,920 Speaker 2: the heavy lifting and you got three. Let's let's see 567 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 2: two in a row for you, and then i'll get 568 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:10,600 Speaker 2: back to my second edition. 569 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 1: The G five High five should be high five High five. 570 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:17,680 Speaker 1: All right, I'll start with the one that I would 571 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,359 Speaker 1: say I'm the least confident just because as I was 572 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,080 Speaker 1: writing it, I like started kracking myself out of it. 573 00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:24,160 Speaker 1: But so I just disclosure wise, not my favorite play. 574 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 1: But I'm thinking with it give me Louisiana minus ten 575 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,920 Speaker 1: and a half against Troy. Louisiana lost a bad game 576 00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,480 Speaker 1: for them to lose last week against South Alabama, and 577 00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,399 Speaker 1: on top of that, they lost quarterback then Woldridge for 578 00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,680 Speaker 1: the rest of the season with a broken collarbone. But 579 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,159 Speaker 1: I don't think there's that much of a drop off 580 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 1: to Chandler Fields. You know, Wldrid's been playing well, but 581 00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 1: Field is the guy who's been at Louisiana for six years. 582 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,640 Speaker 1: He started twelve games. He was in a QB competition 583 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,439 Speaker 1: in the summer, but he was hurt, so Woolridge kind 584 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:52,640 Speaker 1: of won the job by default. 585 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:55,119 Speaker 2: Well, if I could jump in real quick, just a 586 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:57,560 Speaker 2: quick question for you, if Woolridge was playing one hundred 587 00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 2: percent healthy, where would you put this number at where 588 00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:02,280 Speaker 2: it would then be a stay away for you? 589 00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:02,880 Speaker 1: How much? 590 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,120 Speaker 2: And basically that's a different way of saying, how much 591 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,920 Speaker 2: point value do you think this quarterback swap has? 592 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,119 Speaker 1: Two or three? I mean, I wouldn't play it with 593 00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,439 Speaker 1: I wouldn't play it over fourteen with Woldridge. I'd probably 594 00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 1: play it up to twelve and a half with him 595 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,640 Speaker 1: thirteen maybe. I mean, if you Field's thrown twenty touchdowns, 596 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:21,920 Speaker 1: seven picks in his career. He's computing sixty three percent 597 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,160 Speaker 1: of his passes. And what was weird about the South 598 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,800 Speaker 1: Alabama game? By way, there's no team in the entire country. 599 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,560 Speaker 1: I feel like I have less of a feel on 600 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,040 Speaker 1: then South Alabama. Sometimes they look so good, sometimes they 601 00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:35,960 Speaker 1: look horrible. I have no idea, but I only have 602 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 1: any game involving them once. But they were winning twenty 603 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 1: four to three when Wildridge got hurt, so Fields came in, 604 00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:46,240 Speaker 1: led them on four drives. They scored on all four drives. 605 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 1: He ran four touchdown with a minute sixteen left, but 606 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:50,640 Speaker 1: then they missed a two point conversion that would have 607 00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 1: tied the game. But Louisiana outscored them twenty two to 608 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 1: nothing with Fields in the game. So I do expect 609 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:58,360 Speaker 1: Fields to be just fine. I expect them to lean 610 00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:01,600 Speaker 1: on the run game with Bill Davis, Treylan Washington, Zyl 611 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:03,800 Speaker 1: and Perry, all three of average at least five and 612 00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 1: a half yards for Kerry, and Troy's been terrible on 613 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,240 Speaker 1: defense this season, especially against the run. They're ninety seventh 614 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,760 Speaker 1: in success straight They've allowed twenty rushing touchdowns in ten games. 615 00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 1: Troy's defense has not been able to first turnovers at 616 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,040 Speaker 1: all this season. They have just seven turnovers all year, 617 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,200 Speaker 1: the fewst in the Sunbolt. And you know the Louisiana 618 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,240 Speaker 1: defense thinks too, But I'm just not sold on Troy's offense. 619 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,240 Speaker 1: They looked fine last week, but they can't run the ball. 620 00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,560 Speaker 1: Matthew Carbell is just super inconsistent. He's got eight turnovers 621 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,640 Speaker 1: six interceptions on the year. He looked like I said, 622 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 1: he looked good against Georgia Southern, but I kind of 623 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,240 Speaker 1: want to see him do it again. And Louisiana has 624 00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 1: allowed just one passing touchdown in their last in the 625 00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:46,080 Speaker 1: last three games against Texas State, Arkansas State, and South 626 00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 1: Alabama all passing attacks I trust much more than Troy, 627 00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:54,680 Speaker 1: And because they lost that game, Louisiana is in absolute 628 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,440 Speaker 1: must win mode after last week. They are five and 629 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,720 Speaker 1: one in Some Belt play, but Arkansas State, Texas State, 630 00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:03,440 Speaker 1: and South of Alabama only have two conference losses. South 631 00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,640 Speaker 1: of Alabama now as the tiebreaker, so they still control 632 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,640 Speaker 1: their own destiny, but one more slip up will cost 633 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,800 Speaker 1: them the Sun Belt championship. So I think the raging 634 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,800 Speaker 1: Occagans bounce back here. I think they rally around fields 635 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 1: ikes again, this guy's been in a program for six years, 636 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,120 Speaker 1: so I think they're gonna be fine with him. And 637 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,000 Speaker 1: I think they bounce back here in rally, and I 638 00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 1: like them at ten and a half against Troy. 639 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 2: All right, what else you got here and bath thirteen, 640 00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:28,840 Speaker 2: let's go with the. 641 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 1: Following here, give me over forty four and a half 642 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,760 Speaker 1: for Army versus Notre Dame for starters. This Notre Dame 643 00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:38,720 Speaker 1: offense is an absolute killer mode right now. They have 644 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:42,040 Speaker 1: scored at least thirty points in six straight games rally. 645 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,680 Speaker 1: Leonard is playing terrific football. He's throwing the ball well 646 00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,160 Speaker 1: and him and Jeremiah Love are just running it down 647 00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,520 Speaker 1: teams throats. We saw them put up fifty one points 648 00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:54,120 Speaker 1: and average seven point two yards per play against Navy 649 00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,760 Speaker 1: a few weeks ago. Now, Army's defense has been very 650 00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:00,480 Speaker 1: good at keeping teams out of the end zone, but 651 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,640 Speaker 1: they only rank eighty sixth in the country in success 652 00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:07,440 Speaker 1: rate on defense. They are ninety seventh at defending the run. 653 00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,840 Speaker 1: I expect Notre Dame to have success on the ground here, 654 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,960 Speaker 1: and we've seen bad teams move the ball on Army, 655 00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:17,880 Speaker 1: and I just don't expect the same level of red 656 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,960 Speaker 1: zone success against the step up in competition in Notre Dame. 657 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:24,320 Speaker 1: So I'm fully expecting Notre Dame to score at least 658 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,520 Speaker 1: thirty five here. They also still need stop points. You know, 659 00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,760 Speaker 1: they don't have the conference championship to play in and 660 00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:31,960 Speaker 1: they need to run up the score to secure a 661 00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:35,200 Speaker 1: home playoff game. So that means I need what ten 662 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:39,400 Speaker 1: from Army. So I mean for starters. Navy scored fourteen 663 00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:44,360 Speaker 1: despite six turnovers in a hurt quarterback. So Notre Dame's 664 00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,120 Speaker 1: past defense is elite, but they're just eighty fourth in 665 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:50,760 Speaker 1: the country in rushing success allowed, Army second in the 666 00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 1: country in rush success. If you need points, nobody scores 667 00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:57,000 Speaker 1: more than bryceon daily. He has twenty one rushing touchdowns 668 00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,880 Speaker 1: on the season, seven passing tds. He averages one hundred 669 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,760 Speaker 1: thirty two yards per game on the ground, Kanye Udo's 670 00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,200 Speaker 1: averaging ninety five himself. Both of them averaged more than 671 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,720 Speaker 1: six yards per carry. Like I said, despite all the turnovers, 672 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,920 Speaker 1: I mean, Navy looked horrific. They still ran for two 673 00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,320 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty two yards against this Notre Dame defense. 674 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,680 Speaker 1: So I thought Army was better than Navy all year. 675 00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 1: So I still think Army will be able to move 676 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:22,480 Speaker 1: the ball. I think they can score here. I think 677 00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,280 Speaker 1: Notre Dame will continue to run it up because they've 678 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:26,920 Speaker 1: run it up on everyone and they have to keep 679 00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 1: doing it. So I really like this over forty four 680 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:31,800 Speaker 1: and a half. This is the only one I really 681 00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,520 Speaker 1: really like in addition to Arkansas State, I. 682 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,400 Speaker 2: Gonna talk more about this game in a minute, but 683 00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:39,360 Speaker 2: I'm gonna put a cap on our G five high five. 684 00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:43,400 Speaker 2: I could say, Boise go into Laradice playing a Wyoming 685 00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,760 Speaker 2: team that is coming off a really disappointing performance last 686 00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,880 Speaker 2: week against Colorado State, the Broncos land twenty three. Here, 687 00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:52,520 Speaker 2: it's gonna be windy, it's gonna be cold, it's gonna 688 00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:54,400 Speaker 2: be clear, so you don't have to worry about any 689 00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:59,280 Speaker 2: slippery conditions in Laradice. What what do you do have 690 00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:01,640 Speaker 2: to worry about is ash Genty. It's Ashton Genty time 691 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:03,240 Speaker 2: in a big way. It's time to impress not only 692 00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:05,720 Speaker 2: the Heisman voters, but the College Fotball Playoff committee for 693 00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,360 Speaker 2: a potential first round by holding onto that as they 694 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,600 Speaker 2: are currently that number four team, and Wyoming has already 695 00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,360 Speaker 2: given up over two hundred yards per game on the grounds, 696 00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:16,480 Speaker 2: and they give them up in huge chunk plays one 697 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:19,239 Speaker 2: hundred and thirty first in rush EPA. They've given up 698 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,440 Speaker 2: thirteen carries of thirty plus yards this year, which is 699 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:26,120 Speaker 2: in the absolute basement of FBS. That's Genti's calling card, 700 00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:29,240 Speaker 2: popping a big one change in the game, flipping field position, 701 00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:31,240 Speaker 2: everything that he's been able to do for the Broncos 702 00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 2: this year. And Wyoming just in general, they don't create 703 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,920 Speaker 2: any havoc on defense. They never get players or never 704 00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,720 Speaker 2: get opposing teams behind the sticks, and even you know, 705 00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:45,920 Speaker 2: in terms of having an opportunity to backdoor this offensively. 706 00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:49,280 Speaker 2: Their receivers had the worst PFF receiving grade in the 707 00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,640 Speaker 2: Mountinwest Conference. They're one hundred and twenty seventh in the 708 00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,880 Speaker 2: country in receiving grade, and they've struggled big time with 709 00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:58,040 Speaker 2: drops who saw that and just killed them. Against Colorado State, 710 00:33:58,240 --> 00:33:59,960 Speaker 2: they had an opportunity to hang around with that game 711 00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,120 Speaker 2: if they can just squeeze the football a couple times 712 00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:06,440 Speaker 2: in key spots up against this Boise defense. Blitz Boise blitz, 713 00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:09,080 Speaker 2: They're going to put people on islands, and Wyoming is 714 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,239 Speaker 2: not the kind of passing offense to make you pay 715 00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,319 Speaker 2: in that regard. So I think they're going to get home. 716 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,080 Speaker 2: They're going to create at least ten tackles for a 717 00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 2: loss in this game, it could get really ugly. And 718 00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,960 Speaker 2: also keep in mind drops, you know, generally go up 719 00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,040 Speaker 2: when you have windy conditions. You're going to have gusts 720 00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:25,960 Speaker 2: close to twenty miles per hour in this spot. So 721 00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,120 Speaker 2: I think there's an opportunity for the Boise team that 722 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:30,360 Speaker 2: is so much better on the ground to dominate this 723 00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:33,719 Speaker 2: game and win going away. Also, this play shifts into 724 00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:37,360 Speaker 2: a top play kind of category for me. If Alexander Tubner, 725 00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,440 Speaker 2: the team captain, the green dock communicator on defense, if 726 00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:42,880 Speaker 2: he's back, there's not a lot of information. We have 727 00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:44,879 Speaker 2: to live with this all the time. In G five Land, 728 00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,040 Speaker 2: he was on crutches on November ninth, he missed the 729 00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:50,000 Speaker 2: last game against San Jose State. If he's back, Wyoming's 730 00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,080 Speaker 2: really going to struggle and lots of ways offensively in 731 00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:55,640 Speaker 2: this game. So even with him sidelined under that key 732 00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,000 Speaker 2: number of twenty four, I like it with the Boise 733 00:34:58,239 --> 00:34:59,919 Speaker 2: Blue lay in twenty three. What are your thoughts? 734 00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:01,959 Speaker 1: Yeah, Like, I think this is one of those cases 735 00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,120 Speaker 1: where you know, normally you hear teams talking about the 736 00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:07,759 Speaker 1: bulletin board material using as motivation, you know, Kirby somehow 737 00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:11,279 Speaker 1: conventions Georgia that they suck every week. I think this 738 00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:12,759 Speaker 1: is one of those cases where the it almost the 739 00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,000 Speaker 1: opposite works in Boise's favor, with them being you know, 740 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:18,279 Speaker 1: appearing on that force force slot in the bracket, because 741 00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 1: if it was like, hey, we're twelve, we take care 742 00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:24,040 Speaker 1: of business. We just have to win and we're in whatever, 743 00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:26,799 Speaker 1: just there's no incentive to run it up. But now 744 00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:28,920 Speaker 1: you kind of get that, like, oh we could get 745 00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,320 Speaker 1: a buy here, and that's now you have the like 746 00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:34,160 Speaker 1: we can't let teams catch us. We can't let that 747 00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:37,000 Speaker 1: big twelve team catch us in your in your head, 748 00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,000 Speaker 1: which I don't think they necessarily had a few weeks ago. 749 00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:41,319 Speaker 1: So now they're a little bit more incentivized to run 750 00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:44,040 Speaker 1: it up than I think they might have thought they were. Yeah, 751 00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:46,759 Speaker 1: I like it as well. From my last play of 752 00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:50,480 Speaker 1: the high five give me Old dominion minus two at 753 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:53,160 Speaker 1: home against Marshall. Look, we know Marshall. First of all, 754 00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:55,839 Speaker 1: I don't think we've talked enough about Marshall. They had 755 00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:57,680 Speaker 1: a great year. I do want to give them credit 756 00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:00,960 Speaker 1: for exceeding expectations, being a lot better than I think 757 00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:02,480 Speaker 1: everyone thought. I mean, they were right in the thick 758 00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:04,640 Speaker 1: of the Sun Belt Championship race. So I don't want 759 00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:06,759 Speaker 1: to give them a little credit. But we know they 760 00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,879 Speaker 1: want to run the ball. Charlosoff longtime running backs coach, 761 00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:12,759 Speaker 1: and that has always been this team's strength. You know, 762 00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:17,960 Speaker 1: Rashon a Lee, Lamborghini, Layborne, now aj Turner. However, Turner 763 00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:19,880 Speaker 1: didn't play last week and he was in a walking 764 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:23,439 Speaker 1: boot on the sideline. He's averaging over nine yards per carry. 765 00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:26,200 Speaker 1: That is a massive loss if he doesn't play. Same 766 00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:28,759 Speaker 1: thing with you. Lord only knows if he'll play. There's 767 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:30,279 Speaker 1: like one Twitter kind of like a fine that was 768 00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:33,000 Speaker 1: even tweeting that he didn't play last week and there's 769 00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:35,759 Speaker 1: nothing on you know, will he play? But to go 770 00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:39,560 Speaker 1: from a boot to playing seems unlikely. Justin Houston has 771 00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,680 Speaker 1: started the last two games. He's averaging just four point 772 00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,680 Speaker 1: six sharts per carry. He doesn't have a touchdown all season. 773 00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:45,520 Speaker 3: Now. 774 00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,760 Speaker 1: They also switched quarterbacks half through the year to Brayalen Braxton, 775 00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:50,840 Speaker 1: who does give them a big shout with his legs. 776 00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:55,080 Speaker 1: He's averaging nearly fifty yards per game rushing. However, Braxton, 777 00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:57,120 Speaker 1: he doesn't scare me as a passer. You know, we've 778 00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 1: seen him for a few years now, he's at Tulsa before. 779 00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:02,160 Speaker 1: We kind of know if Braxton is. He's completing just 780 00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:05,360 Speaker 1: fifty six percent of his passes in his career. This season, 781 00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:08,319 Speaker 1: he has five big time throws and six turnover where 782 00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:10,839 Speaker 1: he plays, and their best receivers out for the air. 783 00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:14,000 Speaker 1: So I'm just not afraid of this passing attack. And 784 00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:16,640 Speaker 1: all of this just sets up well for an Old 785 00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:20,440 Speaker 1: Dominion defense that is fantastic against the run. These Monarchs 786 00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,719 Speaker 1: are fourteenth in the country in rushing success rate. They've 787 00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:27,280 Speaker 1: allowed just four point one yards per Kerry. Old Dominion's 788 00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:31,160 Speaker 1: offense has been much better since switching to Colton Joseph 789 00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,200 Speaker 1: at quarterback. He has ten touchdowns through the air and 790 00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:37,640 Speaker 1: he's added nine rushing touchdowns. He is very mobile. He's 791 00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,839 Speaker 1: thea Sy Braxon but better. He averages sixty one rushing 792 00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:43,319 Speaker 1: yards per game, five and a half per kerry. He's 793 00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:45,520 Speaker 1: paired in the backfield with Aaron Young to form a 794 00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:49,319 Speaker 1: top twenty five rushing success rate team, and I think 795 00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:51,080 Speaker 1: that is going to be the difference in this game. 796 00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,440 Speaker 1: When I look at these two teams, they're very similar. 797 00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:55,840 Speaker 1: They play a similar style. They want to rely on 798 00:37:55,880 --> 00:38:00,400 Speaker 1: their run game, play, defense, dual threat, quarterback, rpo, stuff diferences. 799 00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:05,560 Speaker 1: Marshall is forty seventh and rushing success rate. Old Dominion 800 00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:11,560 Speaker 1: is fourteenth in rushing success allowed. On defense, Marshall's seventy eighth. 801 00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:15,000 Speaker 1: So Marshall's been great against the past, but like I said, 802 00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:16,880 Speaker 1: that's not really what Old Dominion wants to do anymore. 803 00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:21,239 Speaker 1: And again, Marshall has had a great year, but they 804 00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:25,960 Speaker 1: beat app State, Georgia State, ULM, Southern, miss and Coastal. 805 00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:29,840 Speaker 1: I'm just not impressed with that slate. The Old Dominion 806 00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:33,279 Speaker 1: has beaten Bowling, Green, Texas State, and Georgia Southern, which 807 00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:35,480 Speaker 1: all three of those are more impressive than anything that 808 00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:40,440 Speaker 1: Marshall has. So I like the Monarchs here, and I'm 809 00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:44,240 Speaker 1: just happy that I finally can back Uncle Ricky Ronnie 810 00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:48,040 Speaker 1: and not be accused of Penn State bias because Charles 811 00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:50,200 Speaker 1: Hoff is a Penn State guide too, so it cancels 812 00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:52,520 Speaker 1: out there. So I can I can finally bet the 813 00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:55,200 Speaker 1: Monarchs and not be called the Homer because I'm going 814 00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:57,920 Speaker 1: against my boy Charles Hoff as well. So give me 815 00:38:58,160 --> 00:38:59,840 Speaker 1: Uncle Ricky in the Monarchs. What do you think of 816 00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:00,399 Speaker 1: that play? 817 00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:04,279 Speaker 2: I'm you know, you have like bet regret and you 818 00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:06,279 Speaker 2: have the game Markell too, so I fight'd be on 819 00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,160 Speaker 2: my side. Well, this is more about Old Dominion. And 820 00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:11,680 Speaker 2: I was thinking about this because South Carolina has been 821 00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,279 Speaker 2: getting a lot of love in the analytics community saying 822 00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:16,080 Speaker 2: that if you want to talk about SEC teams that 823 00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:18,960 Speaker 2: deserve an at large bid, and you forget about the 824 00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,200 Speaker 2: wins and losses, just look at the high end play 825 00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:24,000 Speaker 2: South Carolina is there. How did South Carolina not cover 826 00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:26,160 Speaker 2: against Old Dominion? They did, They weren't even close. 827 00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:30,120 Speaker 1: They should have lost lost. Yeah, so that's Old Dominion 828 00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:30,919 Speaker 1: dominated that game. 829 00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:33,719 Speaker 2: Yes, So that one's still frustrating to me. Where I 830 00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:35,319 Speaker 2: was like, I think there's something special with the South 831 00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:38,040 Speaker 2: Carolina team. They almost losed Old Dominion at home and 832 00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:41,120 Speaker 2: now they're surging in November. So I was just a 833 00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:42,840 Speaker 2: little bit early on them. That's all I want to 834 00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:43,400 Speaker 2: say about. 835 00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:46,000 Speaker 1: Ronnie at large bid. Lock it up, all right, We're 836 00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:51,040 Speaker 1: going hey, hey, loss for the Monarchs, baby put him in. 837 00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:54,600 Speaker 2: We are going to the G five money line underdog 838 00:39:54,680 --> 00:40:05,680 Speaker 2: parlay here in Week thirteen, where Oh, I'm going to 839 00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:07,800 Speaker 2: get it kick started with a swing for the fences. 840 00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:10,759 Speaker 2: The pun being they're playing in Yankee Stadium, Army playing 841 00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:13,920 Speaker 2: Notre Dame. Little history lesson here. Notre Dame selected Yankee 842 00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:16,640 Speaker 2: Stadium as a tribute to the one hundredth anniversary of 843 00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,720 Speaker 2: the Four Horsemen game. When Notre Dame upset Army fourteen 844 00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:22,560 Speaker 2: to seven at the Polo Grounds in nineteen twenty four, 845 00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:24,680 Speaker 2: Polo Grounds no longer open, so they got to go 846 00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:28,320 Speaker 2: to Yankee Stadium. These teams haven't met up since twenty sixteen, 847 00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:30,800 Speaker 2: when Notre Dame whipped Army forty four to six in 848 00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:34,200 Speaker 2: San Antonio. Army hasn't been Notre Dame in sixty six years, 849 00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:37,280 Speaker 2: and they only stayed within one score twice since nineteen 850 00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,279 Speaker 2: fifty eight, a one point loss of the Meadowlands in 851 00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,960 Speaker 2: ninety five and a three point road loss in South 852 00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:45,440 Speaker 2: Bend in nineteen ninety eight. Now, the immediate pushback on 853 00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,719 Speaker 2: an Army upset here is simple. Notre Dame's rolling. They 854 00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,680 Speaker 2: won eight in a row, the last five in a 855 00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:52,919 Speaker 2: row that they've won by thirty three points per game. 856 00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:56,600 Speaker 2: They also decimated Navy at MetLife Stadium fifty one to fourteen. 857 00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,719 Speaker 2: So that means Army doesn't stand a chance, right Well, NA, 858 00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,560 Speaker 2: six turnovers in that game? How bad was that? Five 859 00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:05,440 Speaker 2: loss fumbles in that game? That was nearly half of 860 00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:09,879 Speaker 2: Navy's giveaways for the entire season in one game. So yes, 861 00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:12,640 Speaker 2: it's impressive. You still get credit defensively. But there was 862 00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:14,360 Speaker 2: just a couple of spots where they were just putting 863 00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,120 Speaker 2: the ball on the carpet unforced errors, and it became 864 00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:20,160 Speaker 2: a runaway for Notre Dame. The snowball situation got away 865 00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:23,960 Speaker 2: for them. Army to put it lightly, they're really buttoned 866 00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:27,200 Speaker 2: up in this regard. Three giveaways the entire season. Bryson 867 00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:29,759 Speaker 2: Daly one hundred percent healthy again, how do I know it? 868 00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:32,239 Speaker 2: He ran a thirty six times against North Texas, one 869 00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:35,080 Speaker 2: hundred and fifty three yards, two touchdowns against the Mean 870 00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:37,919 Speaker 2: Green and a fourteen to three win. They absolutely shut 871 00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:40,840 Speaker 2: down the unt offense. I will say Chandler Morris is 872 00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:43,359 Speaker 2: clearly playing through an injury. Anyone who's watched as much 873 00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:45,680 Speaker 2: unt football as I have this year, they just they 874 00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:47,799 Speaker 2: won't put his name on the injury list. He had 875 00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,839 Speaker 2: an in game shoulder injury. About four games ago. He's 876 00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:52,680 Speaker 2: not been the same guy. They've not been the same 877 00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:55,239 Speaker 2: explosive offense without him being able to throw the ball, 878 00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:57,840 Speaker 2: but still to hold unt with what they did on 879 00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,840 Speaker 2: the ground against UTSA last Friday night, just three points. 880 00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:03,879 Speaker 2: I'm impressed with that Army performance. I mentioned the four 881 00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,520 Speaker 2: horsemen at the top. How about the holy trinity of 882 00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,560 Speaker 2: rushing the football. Army first in rushing success, first in 883 00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:12,279 Speaker 2: line yards first, and offensive stuff rate. They never get 884 00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,640 Speaker 2: behind the sticks, they're first in havoc avoidance in the 885 00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:17,600 Speaker 2: entire country, and they're up against a Notre Dame front 886 00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:20,960 Speaker 2: that could be depleted. Injury news here, Howard Cross remains 887 00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:23,560 Speaker 2: questionable for Notre Dame in the trenches. He has sprained 888 00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:26,560 Speaker 2: ankle against Florida State, didn't play against Virginia last week. 889 00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:29,680 Speaker 2: The Wahoo's threw that game away Calandria through three picks, 890 00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:31,319 Speaker 2: but they did run for one hundred and twenty eight 891 00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:33,920 Speaker 2: yards without Cross dominating the line of scrimmage. So I 892 00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,640 Speaker 2: think there's an opportunity for Army to have similar success, 893 00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:38,880 Speaker 2: similar to what they've done for most of this season, 894 00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,360 Speaker 2: running against the Notre Dame front, and if you can 895 00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:43,680 Speaker 2: stop the Notre Dame running game. You can hang with them, 896 00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:45,400 Speaker 2: that's just a fact. No one's been able to do 897 00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:47,560 Speaker 2: that for about two months. But and Iu held them 898 00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:49,600 Speaker 2: to one hundred and twenty three yards and they got 899 00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:53,440 Speaker 2: Notre Dame into third down passing situations. That translated to 900 00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:56,200 Speaker 2: a thirty percent conversion rate and two picks for Riley 901 00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:58,120 Speaker 2: Leonard when the defense knew we had to put the 902 00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:01,799 Speaker 2: ball in orbit. As good as he's been, he's predicated 903 00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:04,480 Speaker 2: on the run threat. Every time that he drops back 904 00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:07,799 Speaker 2: in the pocket. You have far less flexibility in terms 905 00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:10,080 Speaker 2: of your coverages when you have to put a spy 906 00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,960 Speaker 2: or multiple spies on Leonard because he's so physical, he's 907 00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,359 Speaker 2: usually running over the first defensive back, so you need 908 00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:18,319 Speaker 2: to gang tackle get people to him. That takes out 909 00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:21,920 Speaker 2: some of the sophistication with your defense. Now Army can 910 00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:23,799 Speaker 2: absolutely be run on, but the one thing is they 911 00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:25,960 Speaker 2: don't give up big rushing plays. They're top ten in 912 00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:30,320 Speaker 2: limiting explosives overall and top ten in limiting rushing explosives. 913 00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:32,920 Speaker 2: I think that's key because this game really just swings 914 00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:35,440 Speaker 2: on third downs. Get to third downs, try to win 915 00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:38,800 Speaker 2: those situations, because if you hold Notre Dame there and 916 00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:41,279 Speaker 2: by the way, Notre Dame eighty six in third down 917 00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:44,440 Speaker 2: conversion offense this year. Every stop is an opportunity for 918 00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:48,200 Speaker 2: Army to shrink this game down in a huge way. Finally, 919 00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:51,759 Speaker 2: narrative wise, elimination game for the college football playoff for 920 00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:54,640 Speaker 2: Notre Dame, as we mentioned, a huge legacy game for 921 00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:57,920 Speaker 2: Marcus Freeman if he were to lose this, another opportunity 922 00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:00,360 Speaker 2: to make the playoff this time and expand it field. 923 00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:03,000 Speaker 2: You already had your mule again against NIU. It gets 924 00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:06,200 Speaker 2: really sweaty for him in the fourth quarter if he's 925 00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:09,320 Speaker 2: potentially blowing another game to a G five team. He 926 00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:12,319 Speaker 2: had NIU, he had Marshall last year. It's becoming a theme. 927 00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:14,520 Speaker 2: This is one of the most high profile jobs in 928 00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:17,320 Speaker 2: all of sports. A lot of pressure on his shoulders. 929 00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:19,440 Speaker 2: And then finally, Army also had an extra week to 930 00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:21,080 Speaker 2: prepare for this game. I think you're going to see 931 00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:23,839 Speaker 2: new wrinkles from Cody Wordley, their offensive coordinator. He's done 932 00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:25,839 Speaker 2: a phenomenal job for the past year and a half 933 00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:28,600 Speaker 2: getting them one step ahead of the defense. They've run 934 00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:31,440 Speaker 2: faked field goals, they've run trick plays, no short their 935 00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:33,680 Speaker 2: speedster at wide receivers. Sometimes they use them in the 936 00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:35,759 Speaker 2: run game as well. I could see him being used 937 00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:38,160 Speaker 2: for trick play. I'm speaking for defence this year. Give 938 00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:41,120 Speaker 2: me Army, gimme monkin. I want to see them win. 939 00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:43,400 Speaker 2: Let's see if I can call this year seventeen sixteen. 940 00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:45,120 Speaker 2: Army wins it with a walk. 941 00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:47,279 Speaker 1: Off the gable. You good, made it little higher than that, 942 00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:48,200 Speaker 1: by the. 943 00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:50,360 Speaker 2: Way, six there we go. How about that? 944 00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:53,960 Speaker 1: At a point, let's go rewind and add a point 945 00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:56,480 Speaker 1: to my argument. By the way, Yankee Stadium short porch 946 00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:58,440 Speaker 1: good for the over So I'm going to ask you 947 00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:00,920 Speaker 1: that do you think how do you see the game 948 00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:04,920 Speaker 1: playing out? Where do you think my over my overhit? 949 00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:08,680 Speaker 1: Are you less or more confident? Are you picturing my 950 00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:11,399 Speaker 1: overhits because Army's going blow for blow with Notre Dame 951 00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:14,239 Speaker 1: and Daily's running it down their throat? Or are you 952 00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:20,400 Speaker 1: more thinking Army slows it down limits possessions wins seventeen fourteen. 953 00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:24,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't see a path forward for Army to 954 00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:26,439 Speaker 2: win in a high scoring game. Doesn't mean it can't 955 00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:29,919 Speaker 2: happen because this is football. It's an oblong shaped ball. 956 00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:33,520 Speaker 2: You get some weird bounces, You get special teams. Defensive score, 957 00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:36,279 Speaker 2: you get Notre Dame. You know, taking some chances on 958 00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:39,880 Speaker 2: fourth downs, field position going in your favor. Still, this 959 00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:42,040 Speaker 2: is an offense that is built to go four and 960 00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,839 Speaker 2: a half yards at a time, so I think even 961 00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:46,560 Speaker 2: if they have an opportunity to pour on some points, 962 00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:50,120 Speaker 2: they still want to be running that clock. So that's 963 00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:51,920 Speaker 2: not to say that they can't score. They have had 964 00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:54,279 Speaker 2: some big scoring games this year. They've shown to be 965 00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:57,080 Speaker 2: much more explosive than they have been in years past, 966 00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,960 Speaker 2: and Warley has done a really good job creating opportunity 967 00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:03,880 Speaker 2: for short to pop some big plays. But I mean, basically, 968 00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:05,719 Speaker 2: I think if this gets into the thirties, Army is 969 00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:07,359 Speaker 2: going to be in deep water. So I don't see 970 00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:09,759 Speaker 2: them keeping up. But in terms of your over, if 971 00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:11,680 Speaker 2: it goes the opposite direction, we already saw this movie. 972 00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:14,160 Speaker 2: If you turn the ball over and you have to 973 00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:16,200 Speaker 2: throw it as a triple option team, Notre Dame can 974 00:46:16,239 --> 00:46:17,960 Speaker 2: get on you and they're not going to let you up, 975 00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:19,640 Speaker 2: and they could score fifty points on their own. 976 00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:21,880 Speaker 1: So I still take o. 977 00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:22,440 Speaker 2: Army in the over. 978 00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:26,040 Speaker 1: You'll hit one of them. I'm glad you mentioned the 979 00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:30,000 Speaker 1: Chandler Morris stuff because I'm going to East Carolina plus 980 00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:33,200 Speaker 1: one twenty against North Texas. For me, this is very simple. 981 00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:36,000 Speaker 1: North Texas games are crazy, they're insane, and there's a 982 00:46:36,040 --> 00:46:38,640 Speaker 1: ton of variants in them because they're insane. This team 983 00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:41,120 Speaker 1: is going to give East Carolina a chance to score 984 00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:43,839 Speaker 1: on every possession. It's just a matter of if their 985 00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:46,759 Speaker 1: offense can keep up with how bad their defense is. 986 00:46:47,080 --> 00:46:49,520 Speaker 1: They've allowed thirty five point seven points per game, one 987 00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:52,200 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty, fourth in the country. They have lost 988 00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,160 Speaker 1: four games in a row and they've allowed over forty 989 00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:57,720 Speaker 1: five points in three of the four. You mentioned, Morris 990 00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:01,040 Speaker 1: looks hurt. That's been a huge issue for them. And 991 00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:03,600 Speaker 1: now I will say that you know, the losses are 992 00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:07,680 Speaker 1: to Memphis, Chileanan Army, so they're understandable. They're the three worst, 993 00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:10,120 Speaker 1: you know, three best teams in the conference. But they 994 00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:13,640 Speaker 1: were short favorites against UTSA and they got smacked in 995 00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:16,359 Speaker 1: that game. And you mentioned at the top UTSA dominated them. 996 00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:20,400 Speaker 1: And now they facing East Carolina team that beat UTSA 997 00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:23,520 Speaker 1: by ten and that was with Jake Garcia at quarterback. 998 00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:26,080 Speaker 1: Since the Pirates have made the move to kitan Hauser, 999 00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:29,440 Speaker 1: they are three and one. Howser has fourteen touchdown passes 1000 00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:32,680 Speaker 1: in his last four games. He is playing really, really well. 1001 00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:35,840 Speaker 1: He is certainly not afraid to slaying the ball and 1002 00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:39,560 Speaker 1: take some chances. Their top receiver, Chase sal he's kind 1003 00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:42,279 Speaker 1: of dealing with injuries all season. He's playing, but is 1004 00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:45,200 Speaker 1: he healthy is one hundred percent. But Anthony Smith and 1005 00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:47,759 Speaker 1: Winston Wright have both really came on. They've both been 1006 00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:51,759 Speaker 1: terrific with Howser under center. Smith is averaging thirty and 1007 00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:54,760 Speaker 1: a half yards per catch over the last three weeks. 1008 00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:57,960 Speaker 1: If you can bet his receiving over. We never know 1009 00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:00,440 Speaker 1: what props are gonna be listed for these G five games. 1010 00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:03,319 Speaker 1: Take his over because he will definitely catch a long 1011 00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:06,960 Speaker 1: touchdown in this game against this defense. And another big 1012 00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:09,359 Speaker 1: thing is ECU has also finally gotten their run game 1013 00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:10,960 Speaker 1: going recently, and you mentioned that's kind of been an 1014 00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:13,680 Speaker 1: issue for the North Texas defense. They have over two 1015 00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:16,680 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty rushing yards in each of the last 1016 00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:20,399 Speaker 1: three games. Rajah Harris finally looks like his old self 1017 00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:24,440 Speaker 1: and again to play Devil's advocate. ECUs looked great in 1018 00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:28,040 Speaker 1: their last three games against Temple, Fau and Tulsa, but 1019 00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:31,080 Speaker 1: That's why they're underdog here because you know, they just 1020 00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:33,080 Speaker 1: they come into this game with a ton of confidence 1021 00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:35,880 Speaker 1: because they've beaten up on bad teams and now they 1022 00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:37,719 Speaker 1: face a bad defense that they should continue to play 1023 00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:40,200 Speaker 1: well against. So if the Pirates can get a few 1024 00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:44,040 Speaker 1: stops forced, a couple turnovers, they absolutely can win this game. 1025 00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:47,200 Speaker 1: So give me ECU plus one twenty in a game 1026 00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:49,560 Speaker 1: that just should feature a lot of aarans because it's 1027 00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:50,200 Speaker 1: got to be crazy. 1028 00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:53,520 Speaker 2: I applaud you for we just talked about this. Teams 1029 00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:56,400 Speaker 2: can change South Carolina opening game in the season to 1030 00:48:56,480 --> 00:48:59,399 Speaker 2: where they are now. Same thing on ECU. I think 1031 00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:01,279 Speaker 2: you've come a long way on what you think about 1032 00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,520 Speaker 2: ECU in their quarterback room because the fact of the 1033 00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:06,120 Speaker 2: matter is they have been more explosive. And some of 1034 00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:09,480 Speaker 2: it is players getting experienced to help out a quarterback 1035 00:49:09,480 --> 00:49:11,480 Speaker 2: at the skill position. Some of it is play calling, 1036 00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:13,759 Speaker 2: some of it is opponent adjusted. There's all kinds of 1037 00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:15,799 Speaker 2: different ways to look at it. But how they're playing 1038 00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:20,960 Speaker 2: right now, they're sending and North Texas is I mean, 1039 00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:23,640 Speaker 2: they're getting close to being in a situation where they 1040 00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:25,040 Speaker 2: need to lean on the running game. You saw some 1041 00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:27,120 Speaker 2: of the big runs that they were popping with their 1042 00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:29,800 Speaker 2: white running back who apparently has over a million followers 1043 00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:31,799 Speaker 2: on Instagram. I don't know how that works, but they 1044 00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:34,320 Speaker 2: brought that up multiple times on the telecast. I'm impressed 1045 00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:36,960 Speaker 2: with that. But he was also hitting some huge runs, 1046 00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:40,240 Speaker 2: and I think they end up, you know, Trot probably 1047 00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:42,000 Speaker 2: trying to run the ball with him fifteen to twenty 1048 00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:45,120 Speaker 2: times in this game. To protect Morris, they probably should 1049 00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:46,920 Speaker 2: be going with someone other than Morris if he's as 1050 00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:49,920 Speaker 2: injured as he appears. But that's neither here nor there. 1051 00:49:50,000 --> 00:49:52,400 Speaker 2: I like the ECU play. Any final thoughts on your 1052 00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:54,399 Speaker 2: cutting room floor, I know you mentioned a few along 1053 00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:54,680 Speaker 2: the way. 1054 00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:57,120 Speaker 1: Well, first, the thing with the change in my tune 1055 00:49:57,120 --> 00:50:00,360 Speaker 1: on ECU is is Chader is just no fear. He 1056 00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:03,040 Speaker 1: just slings the ball downfield. And my issue with him 1057 00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:04,800 Speaker 1: was just he turns the ball over a ton he 1058 00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:07,600 Speaker 1: saw at Michigan State. But I mean it helps they've 1059 00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:10,960 Speaker 1: been playing bad defenses that he just hasn't been those 1060 00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:13,839 Speaker 1: aired out passes, them going for touchdowns. Well, he's playing 1061 00:50:13,840 --> 00:50:16,520 Speaker 1: a bad defense. Like would I be playing him against 1062 00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:19,640 Speaker 1: you know, Army or Navy or one of these top 1063 00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:23,000 Speaker 1: teams in the Tulane. God no, But like I don't 1064 00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:26,080 Speaker 1: trust North Texas to turn him over and force him 1065 00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:29,080 Speaker 1: into those mistakes that he takes chances. I expect when 1066 00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:31,279 Speaker 1: he takes a chance, North Texas's defenders are going to 1067 00:50:31,320 --> 00:50:33,600 Speaker 1: collide and they're going to score a touchdown. But you 1068 00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:36,320 Speaker 1: want to talk about me turning a leaf and changing 1069 00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:39,120 Speaker 1: mind tune. Oh, I had Coastal Carolina on my cutting 1070 00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:41,560 Speaker 1: him floor. I almost took down minus two against Georgia Southern. 1071 00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:43,480 Speaker 1: I don't think Georgia Southern is very good. We saw 1072 00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:46,680 Speaker 1: that last week with them losing, and Coastal is another 1073 00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:48,319 Speaker 1: team that they just kind of have high variants. They 1074 00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:50,480 Speaker 1: were running the ball more. They finally realized that, oh, 1075 00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:52,600 Speaker 1: we should just give the ball to Braydon Bennett because 1076 00:50:52,600 --> 00:50:55,640 Speaker 1: he's our best player. And they do that against Georgia Southern. 1077 00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:58,120 Speaker 1: They should be able to run on them. And Coastal's 1078 00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:01,160 Speaker 1: pass defense isn't bad, So I'm stick Hoostal. That would 1079 00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:04,400 Speaker 1: have been full face turn for me, but left them 1080 00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:07,320 Speaker 1: on the cutting floor along with Bowling Green just because 1081 00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:09,719 Speaker 1: the interim bump tearing me away a little bit. 1082 00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:12,560 Speaker 2: For Mike Ianello on Mike Calabrays has been the group 1083 00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:15,719 Speaker 2: of five Deep Dive under the BBOC banner. We have 1084 00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:18,160 Speaker 2: more coming your way on the podcast feed. That's Colin 1085 00:51:18,239 --> 00:51:21,200 Speaker 2: and Stuck on Thursday dropping off their week thirteen full 1086 00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:23,000 Speaker 2: card from the trash all the way up to the 1087 00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:26,840 Speaker 2: Marquis matchups. And then on Saturday, Brett McMurphy joins Colin, 1088 00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:29,520 Speaker 2: Stuck and myself as well as Johnny Football for a 1089 00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:33,640 Speaker 2: live show from ten thirty to about eleven fifteen am Eastern. 1090 00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:36,520 Speaker 2: You can see it over at the BBOC YouTube channel. 1091 00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:39,880 Speaker 2: Get into that comment section, drop us some legs, subscribe, 1092 00:51:40,160 --> 00:51:42,880 Speaker 2: please comment as well, and next week I'm going to 1093 00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:45,600 Speaker 2: give out multiple parlays. As a matter of fact, in 1094 00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:47,600 Speaker 2: terms of our five star reviews are starting to roll 1095 00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:50,359 Speaker 2: in here. Please say something nice or don't say anything 1096 00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:52,480 Speaker 2: at all. You can comment whatever you want as long 1097 00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:54,719 Speaker 2: as it's five star in there helping us move a 1098 00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:57,960 Speaker 2: step closer to one thousand reviews over there on Apple Podcast. 1099 00:51:58,040 --> 00:52:00,600 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for listening. Hopefully you enjoy the 1100 00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:04,160 Speaker 2: Saturday slates and we get one step closer to a 1101 00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:07,160 Speaker 2: colletureable playoff that's going to include a G five champion 1102 00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:10,080 Speaker 2: and maybe one that has a buy right into the quarterfinals. 1103 00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:11,839 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening, guys had a good one. 1104 00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:29,360 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 1105 00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:32,200 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 1106 00:52:32,239 --> 00:52:35,320 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler