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Speaker 1: It's been another busy week of news in the US

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Speaker 1: and around the globe, so we've asked three friends of

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Speaker 1: the podcast to come back on the show today and

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Speaker 1: give us insights on some of the most important stories

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Speaker 1: they are covering right now. White House reporter Jordan Fabian

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Speaker 1: and National Security reporter Courtney McBride are here with me

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Speaker 1: in Washington, and senior International affairs reporter Mark Champion joins

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Speaker 1: us from London. I'm west Kosova today on the big

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Speaker 1: take the first Republican presidential debate, an escalation in Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: and mixed signals in the global economy. Jordan O shortage

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Speaker 1: of news in US politics and the presidential race right now.

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Speaker 1: Start with the first Republican debate, which is coming up fast.

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Speaker 1: What exactly is happening there?

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Speaker 2: So the big question for that debate is whether the

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Speaker 2: front runner, Donald Trump, is even going to show up.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump right now has a huge lead in polls

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Speaker 2: over his rivals, including people might say it's his chief

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Speaker 2: rival Rod DeSantis. The New York Times ball showed he

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Speaker 2: was almost forty points ahead of Rod DeSantis nationally, and

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Speaker 2: so there's not a lot of incentive if you're looking

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Speaker 2: at it from Trump's point of view to show up

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Speaker 2: and maybe get into trouble by getting yourself onto the

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Speaker 2: debate stage. But at the same time, I covered Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump for four years. This is a man who was

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Speaker 2: reluctant to give up the spotlight. It's going to be

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Speaker 2: hard pressed to want to skip that debate and let

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Speaker 2: his rivals get on primetime. Fox News highest rated US

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Speaker 2: cable news network, obviously very influential with conservatives them to

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Speaker 2: take airtime away from him. So he hasn't said whether

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Speaker 2: he's going to show up, but that'll be a decision

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Speaker 2: for him.

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Speaker 3: To make in the next few weeks.

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Speaker 2: Meanwhile, his lesser rivals are trying to meet the threshold

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Speaker 2: to get.

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Speaker 3: Onto the debate stage. So that means they need.

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Speaker 2: To reach a certain number of individual donors and be

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Speaker 2: polling above a certain number in national polls in order

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Speaker 2: to get included. So they're trying to ramp up their

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Speaker 2: fundraising and get out there as much as possible in

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Speaker 2: order to be included.

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Speaker 1: I guess one of the things that some of Trump's

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Speaker 1: advisors are concerned about is that he's now been indicted

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Speaker 1: three times. There's a fourth indictment in Georgia, possible coming

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Speaker 1: soon that he could get up there and say things

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Speaker 1: that could cause him more problems in the courtroom.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, he's telegraphed that he wants to fight these cases

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Speaker 2: in the court of public opinion, almost to the detriment

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Speaker 2: of his strategy in fighting them in the court of law.

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Speaker 2: And so he's gone after prosecutors in the case, he's

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Speaker 2: gone after the Special Council, Jack Smith on his true

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Speaker 2: social platform.

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Speaker 4: Its election interferes at the highest level. There's never been

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Speaker 4: anything like what's happened. I'm an innocent man, I'm an

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Speaker 4: innocent person, and we'll fight this a just like we've

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Speaker 4: been fighting for seven years. It would be wonderful of

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Speaker 4: a good food.

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Speaker 2: And you could expect he's going to say a lot

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Speaker 2: of those things out loud on the debate stage should

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Speaker 2: he choose to attend, and their legal implications. Judges could say,

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Speaker 2: you know, we don't want you to intimidate witnesses, we

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Speaker 2: don't want you to discuss certain details of the case.

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Speaker 2: And if he violates that, he could actually get himself

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Speaker 2: into legal trouble even before those trials begin.

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Speaker 1: Jordan, do you think the other candidates want Trump on

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Speaker 1: that stage? They certainly want to be able to show

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Speaker 1: that they can go toe to toe with him. But

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Speaker 1: Trump also doesn't debate fair. He just talks over everybody

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Speaker 1: else and makes it impossible for anyone to get a

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Speaker 1: line in.

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Speaker 2: It's an interesting way you phrased the question. Do they

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Speaker 2: want to I'm not sure they want to, but they

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Speaker 2: might need to in order to gain ground on Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: You look back to twenty sixteen, there was that crazy

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Speaker 2: debate stage with twenty candidates up there with Trump, and

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Speaker 2: he just evstraated all of them.

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Speaker 1: That's a matter of biggest liar. You probably are worse

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Speaker 1: than Jeb Bush. You are the single biggest liner. All right,

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Speaker 1: this guy lied.

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Speaker 2: And I'm sure some of them who are running again,

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Speaker 2: like Chris Christy and others like Rod De Santas and

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Speaker 2: Mike Pence will like a piece of Donald Trump. They

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Speaker 2: want to show that they can, as you said, go

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Speaker 2: toe to toe with him, show that they're tough, show

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Speaker 2: that they can be leaders. And their biggest opportunity to

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Speaker 2: do that will be a nationally televised debate.

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Speaker 1: Mark, You're sitting in London, so you have a little

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Speaker 1: bit of geographical distance, but I imagine there's plenty of noise

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Speaker 1: about the US campaign there too. What do people where

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Speaker 1: you're sitting in the rest of the Europe make of

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Speaker 1: this campaign so far?

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Speaker 5: It's less the campaign the mere fact that Trump in

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Speaker 5: a position where he, you know, almost certainly it looks

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Speaker 5: like will win the nomination and then has a chance

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Speaker 5: to win the presidency again. I think it's difficult to

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Speaker 5: overestimate the degree to which p and political leaders in

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Speaker 5: particular in Europe are horrified, just horrified by the thought

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Speaker 5: of a second Trump presidency in their kind of memory,

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Speaker 5: NATO barely survived it, the Transatlantic relationship barely survived it.

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Speaker 5: They're now in the middle of war on the borders

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Speaker 5: of Western Europe in which the US and its commitment

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Speaker 5: are absolutely existential. That war will be very hard to

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Speaker 5: continue to prosecute successfully or to support, rather the Ukrainians

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Speaker 5: in their successful defense if there is no US support,

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Speaker 5: and Trump has made it clear that that is not

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Speaker 5: a given mark.

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Speaker 1: You describe European leaders as not wanting a return of

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, but there has been a rise in a

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Speaker 1: right wing nationalist movement in parts of Europe. Do they

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Speaker 1: see it differently?

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Speaker 5: I'm sure that Victor Aubun Prime Minister in Hungary would

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Speaker 5: quite like to see Trump victory. He's on the Trump

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Speaker 5: side of the culture wars which spread across Europe as

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Speaker 5: well as in the US. He is famously quite close

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Speaker 5: to President Putin of Russia. So for him, I think

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Speaker 5: that would be quite useful. But you know the other

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Speaker 5: right wing party that is in control in Europe and

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Speaker 5: that you would be on the same side of the

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Speaker 5: culture wars, which is in Poland. For them it would

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Speaker 5: be a very difficult position because they are very much

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Speaker 5: on the front line of this support for the Ukrainians

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Speaker 5: in their war with Russia. They see Russia as a

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Speaker 5: real security threat in a way that might not have

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Speaker 5: been true some years ago. They would be quite hesitant.

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Speaker 1: I think Courtney, you cover national security like Mark was

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Speaker 1: just saying. The war in Ukraine, these issues of NATO,

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Speaker 1: of unity among Western nations is very much a question

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Speaker 1: on everybody's minds in the national security establishment, the State Department,

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Speaker 1: the Pentagon, the intelligence community. How are they viewing this

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Speaker 1: campaign through that lens.

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Speaker 6: They are a political by definition, and so you know

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Speaker 6: they will carry out the responsibilities they have regardless of

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Speaker 6: who wins an election. But I think the Biden administration

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Speaker 6: has worked very hard to repair some relationships that were strained,

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Speaker 6: to put it mildly, during the Trump administration, and they

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Speaker 6: continue to work to reassure allies and partners, not just

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Speaker 6: in Europe but around the world that you know, as

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Speaker 6: the President often says, is back and that they won't

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Speaker 6: experience some sort of whiplash where the US again withdraws

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Speaker 6: and takes a much more sort of insular approach. And

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Speaker 6: so you know, they're trying to demonstrate this consistent leadership

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Speaker 6: and partnership with other countries that continues to be tested,

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Speaker 6: not just with Ukraine but around the world. I mean,

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Speaker 6: there's still some concern about potential waning influence and you know,

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Speaker 6: the rise of China and Russia or their ability to

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Speaker 6: fill the vacuum in places where the US is not

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Speaker 6: as present.

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Speaker 1: Jordan, like so many conversations we have these days, our

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Speaker 1: conversation has turned to Ukraine, and we're going to talk

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Speaker 1: a bit more about that, but I wanted also to

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Speaker 1: talk about some other just US domestic issues that are

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Speaker 1: coming to the fore, including ghost guns.

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Speaker 3: That's right.

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Speaker 2: So if you recall, the Biden administration issued a regulation

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Speaker 2: banning these ghost guns, which are essentially guns that are untraceable,

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Speaker 2: you know, they don't have a serial number. They were

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Speaker 2: kind of made off the books, and this is one

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Speaker 2: of the ways that the administration's trying to crack down

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Speaker 2: on gun violence, absent a big gun control bill passing

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Speaker 2: through Congress, which is really far off now. At the time,

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Speaker 2: there were a number of Republican leaders who challenged this

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Speaker 2: into the Supreme Court. There was a lower court that said,

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Speaker 2: as a result of this challenge, this needs to go

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Speaker 2: on pause and needs to basically stop taking effect. The

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Speaker 2: administration challenged that lower court ruling that went all the

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Speaker 2: way up to the Supreme Court, and in a surprise

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Speaker 2: five to four decision, the Supreme Court allowed the ghost

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Speaker 2: gun rule to take effect while that underlying legal challenge

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Speaker 2: makes its way through the legal system. So for the

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Speaker 2: meantime and probably for a few months, if not longer,

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Speaker 2: this policy will be on the books a Biden administration,

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Speaker 2: we'll be able to crack down on these ghost guns.

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Speaker 2: And one surprising element of that Supreme Court decision was

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Speaker 2: that Chief Justice John Roberts and Amy Cony Barrett, an

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Speaker 2: associate Justice who was pointing to the bench by Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: sided with the liberal wing of the Court to allow

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Speaker 2: that policy to take place. We've seen a lot of

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Speaker 2: cases fall on strict ideological lines. You know, the Dobbs

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Speaker 2: case on abortion rights really comes to mind, but this

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Speaker 2: was a zig while maybe the Court is zagging on

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Speaker 2: a lot of other really contentious social issues.

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Speaker 1: Another big issue on a lot of people's minds is

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Speaker 1: student loans.

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Speaker 2: That's right, So for a long time was student loan

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Speaker 2: repayments have been on pause. This is a policy that

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Speaker 2: took place during the pandemic. That pause is going to

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Speaker 2: lift very soon, so that means student borrowers will start

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Speaker 2: having to pay their loans back again, and this is

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Speaker 2: going to have some significant political and economic effects. Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden tried to cancel a lot of student loan debt

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Speaker 2: and also sort of extend this repayment pause, but that

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Speaker 2: was blocked by the Supreme Court. So that's a disappointment

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Speaker 2: for the president. But on the other hand, look by

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Speaker 2: repaying the student loans, that could help address the budget deficit,

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Speaker 2: which has been a real point of contention between President

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Speaker 2: Biden and Republicans. This is going to particularly chaf a

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Speaker 2: lot of young voters who weren't really enthusiastic about voting

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Speaker 2: for Joe Biden again in twenty twenty four, and so

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Speaker 2: he's going to have a lot of work to do

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Speaker 2: to convince them.

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Speaker 3: He took a second body of the apple.

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Speaker 2: You know, he announced a few weeks ago that he's

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Speaker 2: going to try and do the student loan cancelation through

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Speaker 2: another legal path, but that has the possibility to get

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Speaker 2: tied up at court as well. Conservatives are already suing,

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Speaker 2: and it's also going to take longer the law that

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Speaker 2: he chose to use there, it's just going to take

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Speaker 2: longer because it requires a formal rulemaking process which could

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Speaker 2: take months.

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Speaker 3: So a lot to watch there on student loans.

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Speaker 1: When we come back, new tensions in the Black Sea Mark.

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Speaker 1: We've started talking a lot in this conversation about Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: which is really front and center in so much of

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Speaker 1: the discussions in the US and overseas, and we've seen

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Speaker 1: recent developments in the Black Sea which are pretty alarming.

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Speaker 1: Can you catch yourself on what's happening?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it is a real kind of shift to focus

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Speaker 5: in the war. You know, we're eighteen months into an

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Speaker 5: invasion by Russia that was really intended to be over

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Speaker 5: in a few days, so you know here we are.

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Speaker 5: But what has happened is that in the middle of

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Speaker 5: July you saw the Russians pull out of the grain

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Speaker 5: deal that's been enabled at least a good portion of

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Speaker 5: Ukrainian grain to reach world markets via the Black Sea

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Speaker 5: for about a year. As a result of that, having

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Speaker 5: pulled out, the Russians then started bombing Ukrainian ports, and

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Speaker 5: in particular they started bombing not just the Black seaports

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Speaker 5: that were part of the grain deal, but they also

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Speaker 5: started bombing the ports on the River Danube, which the

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Speaker 5: Ukrainians were developing very quickly in order to create an

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Speaker 5: alternate for grain, which wasn't reliant on a grain deal.

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Speaker 5: So the Ukrainians found a way to respond. This is

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Speaker 5: something they couldn't have done a year ago. Really, they've

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Speaker 5: been developing naval drones, which are like small boats loaded

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Speaker 5: with explosives and a bunch of pretty sophisticated technology that

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Speaker 5: gives them an element of stealth, allows them to go

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Speaker 5: hundreds of miles and also you know, quite quickly around

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Speaker 5: almost fifty miles an hour over the surface of the water.

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Speaker 5: And they did successfully strike and cripple both the naval

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Speaker 5: warship but Russian warship and an oil tanker. So what

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Speaker 5: they have done really is, together with that, say, the

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Speaker 5: Russians have made it clear that our ports are not safe.

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Speaker 5: We are giving notice now that the Russian ports on

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Speaker 5: the Black Sea are not safe. And that's really a

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Speaker 5: kind of opening bid in a negotiation to try and

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Speaker 5: get the Russians the international community to sort of change

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Speaker 5: the outlet, which was simply that the Russians were able

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Speaker 5: to stop Ukrainian exports and the Ukrainians could do nothing

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Speaker 5: about Russian exports. And it has, you know, real potential

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Speaker 5: impact on global markets, both on the price of wheat

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Speaker 5: less so on the price of oil. But even so,

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Speaker 5: there's a lot of oil around two and a half

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Speaker 5: million barrels a day that goes through the Black Sea,

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Speaker 5: exported from Russia, Kazakhstan and so on.

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Speaker 1: Courtney, You've been reporting on this story and the US

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Speaker 1: response has been pretty strong.

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Speaker 6: It has, I mean, the State Department has pushed Russia

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Speaker 6: to rejoin the Black Sea Green Initiative obviously continues to

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Speaker 6: call on Russia to end its war immediately, but also

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Speaker 6: was really trying to raise awareness of the global food

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Speaker 6: security implications. Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln went to New

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Speaker 6: York last week to chair United Nations Security Council meeting

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Speaker 6: focused on this, not specifically on Russia and Ukraine, but

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Speaker 6: obviously that was the dominant of the immediate problem.

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Speaker 7: We've heard from around the world, a course of condemnation

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Speaker 7: for this action and the strong desire on the part

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Speaker 7: of many, many countries that this arrangement.

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Speaker 3: Be put back in place. And it's very simple. It's

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Speaker 3: on Russia to decide whether to do so.

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Speaker 7: Of course, it could end the war that it started

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Speaker 7: tomorrow and that would solve the problem definitively. But short

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Speaker 7: of that, at the very least, the world is insisting

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Speaker 7: that it restored the Black.

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Speaker 3: Sea Brain initiative.

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Speaker 6: So the United States has, throughout the Biden administration tried

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Speaker 6: to shine a spotlight on global food security problem, but

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Speaker 6: last week accused Russia directly of an assault on the

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Speaker 6: global system through not just its withdrawal from the Black

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Speaker 6: Sea Grain initiative, but also its attacks on Ukrainian grain

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Speaker 6: supplies and ports.

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Speaker 1: Jordan Wyne. Thing we've talked about in the show is

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Speaker 1: how long Americans will support the war in Ukraine, especially

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Speaker 1: at these levels. A lot of money, a lot of

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Speaker 1: military aid, and do we see any signs of it softening.

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Speaker 2: There are some very loud voices on the right who

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Speaker 2: don't want the support to continue, but if you look

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Speaker 2: at Poles, the majorities of Americans still support this US

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Speaker 2: effort to fund Ukraine's war effort. But there's going to

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Speaker 2: be a test of this wes coming up when the

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Speaker 2: White House is at some point going to ask Congress

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Speaker 2: for more money to give Ukraine weapons, to help fund

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Speaker 2: its government, etc. The last funding package was passed the

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Speaker 2: end of last year that was meant to last through

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Speaker 2: the end of September, and so that money is running out.

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Speaker 2: That date is coming up, and this is going to

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Speaker 2: be a big test for Biden to see if he

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Speaker 2: can get another round of funding through. After Speaker Kevin McCarthy,

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Speaker 2: the Republican Leader of the House, has said I'm going

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Speaker 2: to look at Ukraine aid very closely. There was a

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Speaker 2: budget deal where they kind of limited the amount they

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Speaker 2: would spend overall on defense, and so does that sort

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Speaker 2: of come out of the defense budget or is this

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Speaker 2: on top of that. That is kind of the big

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Speaker 2: debate that's going to happen, and I think the result

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Speaker 2: of that will tell us a lot about not only

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Speaker 2: were congressional support for the US effort to a Ukraine is,

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Speaker 2: but where public support is as well.

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Speaker 1: Mark, we saw President Zelensky of Ukraine go to Saudi

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Speaker 1: Arabia in a bid to seek support. There did anything

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Speaker 1: come of that?

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Speaker 5: Literally no, so literally there was no joint statement, there

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Speaker 5: was no product. But it was actually quite an important

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Speaker 5: meeting because until this moment there has really been no

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Speaker 5: table around which anybody was in order to try and

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Speaker 5: even set the kind of foundations for a future piece talks.

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Speaker 5: This was a table. The Chinese were there, the Saudis were,

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Speaker 5: Their kind of global South was there, if you like,

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Speaker 5: the Americans were, you know, they're as observers and for

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Speaker 5: the Zelansky was an important moment. He's been trying to

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Speaker 5: break through to the global South. He's got solid support

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Speaker 5: in Europe's solid support in the US, but he really

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Speaker 5: hasn't been able to make many inroads in Africa and

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Speaker 5: in the Middle East, limited in Asia. This was a

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Speaker 5: moment for him. So yeah, it was important. And I

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Speaker 5: just wanted to also say, you know, with regard to

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Speaker 5: you know, the American support and that the kind of

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Speaker 5: questions that start to be raised about money a lot

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Speaker 5: of people talk about the current counter offensive where the

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Speaker 5: Ukrainians are trying to sort of put take back territory,

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Speaker 5: push the Russians out of the charity they've occupied since

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Speaker 5: last February, and that's often framed as, you know, if

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Speaker 5: they don't succeed in this counter offensive, then the pressure

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Speaker 5: is going to rise on them to start settlement talks

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Speaker 5: and to agree to a cease fire on current lines

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Speaker 5: and so on. The Ukrainians of course say, we're not

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Speaker 5: going to do that, but you know, in a way,

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Speaker 5: the more important issue, maybe the better way to look

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Speaker 5: at it, is that, you know, there is a time frame,

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Speaker 5: there is a kind of parallel time frame to the

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Speaker 5: one that's going on the ground. If they don't succeed

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Speaker 5: and they aren't able to make real progress, that feeds

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Speaker 5: into the debate in the US about, you know, do

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Speaker 5: we spend more money on this effort. The Ukrainians say,

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Speaker 5: we'll find out no matter what, and that's quite possible,

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Speaker 5: but without the financing and without the weapons from the West,

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Speaker 5: it's tough.

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Speaker 1: After the break, the stories that Mark Courtney and Jordan

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Speaker 1: are keeping an eye on Jordan one another thing on

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Speaker 1: a lot of people's minds everywhere in the world is

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Speaker 1: the state of the global economy. You have in the

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Speaker 1: US things looking a little bit better than they did

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Speaker 1: several months ago. Joe Biden out trying to sell his

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Speaker 1: economic successes. Where do you think the US is right now?

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Speaker 1: When it comes to this idea of avoiding a recession

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Speaker 1: and maybe having the fabled soft landing.

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Speaker 2: It seems a lot more likely wes than it did

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Speaker 2: a few months ago, doesn't It is strong economic growth.

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Speaker 2: Gross domestic product growth in the last quarter was pretty

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Speaker 2: much in line with what people expected two point four percent.

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Speaker 2: The jobs market is still going strong. You have a

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Speaker 2: lot of economists pulling back on their predictions of a

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Speaker 2: recession happening later this year, and so that's all encouraging

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Speaker 2: news for the president. The biggest challenge for the president now, though,

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Speaker 2: is more politically than economically. He has got to sell

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Speaker 2: the public on the idea that the economy of the

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Speaker 2: US is actually pretty good before the election. Most voters

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Speaker 2: don't believe that, and in fact, you know, almost two

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Speaker 2: thirds of voters disapprove of his handling of the economy.

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Speaker 2: Despite the fact that the US has come out of

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Speaker 2: the pandemic in better shape than pretty much every other

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Speaker 2: G seven country. There's been this disconnect, And so what

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Speaker 2: I hear from people who I talk to at the

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Speaker 2: White House, they're less alarmed by an economic calamity happening

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Speaker 2: in the near future, but they're more concerned with getting

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Speaker 2: the American public's mood to turn around about how the

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Speaker 2: economy's doing.

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Speaker 1: Mark for a while there everyone was reeling during COVID

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Speaker 1: and all reeling together. But now this is splintered, with

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Speaker 1: some countries managing to turn themselves around in others still

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Speaker 1: really suffering. How do you assess the direction of the

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Speaker 1: global economy right now?

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Speaker 5: The way I would look at it actually is that,

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Speaker 5: you know, yes, after COVID, it looked like everyone was

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Speaker 5: in trouble, but the US began to recover from COVID,

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Speaker 5: you know, faster than Europe did, for example, And you know,

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Speaker 5: you've had some ups and down since. And I think

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Speaker 5: what you're seeing is a repeating pattern where in terms

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Speaker 5: of the Western developed economies, the US is consistently coming

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Speaker 5: back a bit faster. It you know, suffered some pretty

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Speaker 5: heavy inflation, but not as heavy as in the UK

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Speaker 5: or the Eurozone, and then the inflation rates started to

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Speaker 5: fall off a bit quicker. The UK in particular is

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Speaker 5: really in a mess. All boats are not rising at

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Speaker 5: the moment and overall, you know, if you if you

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Speaker 5: look at what's happening in China with you know, softer

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Speaker 5: growth there, you have to think that, you know, we're

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Speaker 5: going to see a fairly soft global economy for for

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Speaker 5: a little while. Yet it's going to take a while

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Speaker 5: to get over that. And again, you know, the sort

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Speaker 5: of the worst case in a way is the UK.

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Speaker 5: You know, you open the newspapers every day and it's

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Speaker 5: the cost of living crisis over and over again. Very

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Speaker 5: tough outlook for the Conservative Party of Rushie Sunak, who

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Speaker 5: is you know, trying to find a way to get

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Speaker 5: out of the doll drums.

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Speaker 8: Today you may have seen what the Bank of England

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Speaker 8: has announced with interest rates, and I'm sure that actually

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Speaker 8: fills many of you with some anxiety and some concern

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Speaker 8: about what's going on and what does that mean for

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Speaker 8: you and your families. That I'm here to tell you

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Speaker 8: that I am totally one hundred percent on it and

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Speaker 8: it is going to be okay and we are going

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Speaker 8: to get through this.

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Speaker 5: You know, you still got pretty high inflation You've got

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Speaker 5: pretty low growth odds for here for you know, elections

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Speaker 5: a year or two out.

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Speaker 1: Not great, Courtney. Anytime we talk about the economy, especially

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Speaker 1: in the US, you immediately start talking about spending. And

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Speaker 1: of course, the biggest part of the US budget is defense.

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Speaker 1: We have the big Defense bill slowly painfully winding its

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Speaker 1: way through the Congress. How do you think that's going

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Speaker 1: to play out?

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Speaker 6: We talked a little bit about some conservative concerns about

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Speaker 6: US spending on assistance to Ukraine. You know, this public

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Speaker 6: sentiment perhaps creates an opening for some of the president's

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Speaker 6: political opponents too, who may want a pullback on some

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Speaker 6: of this foreign assistance. You know, sometimes they cite domestic

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Speaker 6: priorities that should be funded instead. Sometimes, you know, there's

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Speaker 6: a push to prepare or spend to defend Taiwan from

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Speaker 6: a potential onslaught by mainland China. They're all of these

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Speaker 6: competing priorities that are cited. But I think that is

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Speaker 6: certainly a concern. I think for many on the Republican side,

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Speaker 6: the defense budget has long been this sort of sacred cow.

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Speaker 6: But even some Republicans, you know, are concerned with the

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Speaker 6: way that the Biden administration is trying to allocate funding

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Speaker 6: for defense. There are a lot of social issues that

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Speaker 6: have become points of contention within the defense budget. Some

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Speaker 6: congressional Republicans, particularly Alabama Senator Tommy Tubberville, have opposed some

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Speaker 6: of the provisions in the defense bill. There's a concern

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Speaker 6: about spending on abortion for service members. Tuberville has imposed

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Speaker 6: holds on the confirmations of several senior general and flag

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Speaker 6: officers for the military. So you are going to have

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Speaker 6: military services with no one officially Senate confirmed in their

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Speaker 6: top positions for the first time in decades.

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Speaker 9: Three months ago, informed Secretary Austin that if he tried

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Speaker 9: to turn the DoD into an abortion travel agency, I

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Speaker 9: would place a hold on all Sevillian flag in General officer.

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Speaker 6: Nomine Tubberville has claimed that his holds are not affecting

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Speaker 6: the ability of the Pentagon to do its job. The

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Speaker 6: Pentagon leadership would say otherwise, But you know, this is

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Speaker 6: potentially going to affect, you know, the ability of a

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Speaker 6: lot of different not just the military services, but different

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Speaker 6: commands to actually move people to their new jobs. I mean,

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Speaker 6: this could create a very serious backlog.

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Speaker 1: We've touched on some of the stories in the news.

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Speaker 1: I'm interested to hear what each of you is looking

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Speaker 1: at in the weeks and months ahead. Mark, I'll ask

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Speaker 1: you first, what is the story that's really on your mind?

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Speaker 5: Well, I hate to be boring, but for me, it's

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Speaker 5: it's still Ukraine. You know, the counter offensive goes on.

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Speaker 5: It's still the biggest story, you know, for Europe in

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Speaker 5: terms of security Economically, it's also incredibly important. It raises

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Speaker 5: all sorts of geopolitical questions to do with Russia positioning

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Speaker 5: of China, and that one has kind of had me

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Speaker 5: captive since you know, the beginning of last year and

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Speaker 5: I'm still in jail Jordan.

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Speaker 2: I am looking at the potential for a government shutdown

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Speaker 2: in the US as early as next month. We were

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Speaker 2: talking about that September thirtieth eight for Ukraine funding. Well,

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Speaker 2: that's actually also the deadline when funding for the whole

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Speaker 2: government runs out and Congress needs to approve a new

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Speaker 2: federal budget for next fiscal year. Problem is that Republicans

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Speaker 2: in the House and Senate don't agree on how to

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Speaker 2: allocate all those funds, let alone Republicans and Democrats, so

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Speaker 2: they have a lot of issues to work through in

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Speaker 2: a short amount of time. Lawmakers right now are in

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Speaker 2: August recess. They're not coming back until the end of

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Speaker 2: the month, so they'll only have a few short weeks

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Speaker 2: to work these issues through. And we talked earlier about

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Speaker 2: how well the US economy is doing, you know, growth, strong,

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Speaker 2: good jobs market. Well, this has the potential to disrupt

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Speaker 2: that and perhaps cost some headwinds for the economy. That's

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Speaker 2: the last thing that President Joe Biden wants as he

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Speaker 2: begins to ramp up his reelection campaign.

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Speaker 1: So unfair question. We've certainly heard this song play before.

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Speaker 1: Do you think we will have a shutdown?

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Speaker 3: I do.

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Speaker 2: I think there will be a shutdown. I don't know

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Speaker 2: how long it will be. But Kevin McCarthy, the Speaker

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Speaker 2: of the House, is under a lot of pressure from

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Speaker 2: conservatives to cut spending even below the levels that he

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Speaker 2: and Joe Biden agreed to in that debt ceiling deal

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Speaker 2: back in May, and that's going to cause a lot

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Speaker 2: of problems, not only with cenerate Republicans, as I mentioned,

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Speaker 2: but with Democrats. The problem for McCarthy is that he

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Speaker 2: had agreed when he became speaker to a set of

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Speaker 2: rules in the House that would allow one single member

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Speaker 2: to call a vote to essentially throw him out of

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Speaker 2: his job. And so he really has to walk on

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Speaker 2: pins and needles and make that conservative block happy. And

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Speaker 2: one way he could do that is by starting a

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Speaker 2: government shutdown.

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Speaker 6: Courtney, I mean echoing Mark the continuing war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 6: You know, in the coming months we're looking at US

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Speaker 6: tanks finally arriving on the battlefield. The world's leaders are

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Speaker 6: going to gather in New York in September for the

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Speaker 6: United Nations General Assembly. That you know, that's going to

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Speaker 6: be an important thing to watch, not just on Ukraine,

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Speaker 6: but on a whole host of issues. And then finally

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Speaker 6: we're tracking purported coup in Niger and new unrest in

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Speaker 6: Ethiopia that the State Department is trying to help reach

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Speaker 6: a diplomatic solution.

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Speaker 1: To Courtney, Jordan Mark, thanks so much for coming on

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Speaker 1: the show. Thanks for having us, Thanks Wes, thank you,

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Speaker 1: thanks for listening to us here at the Big Take.

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Speaker 1: It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For more

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Speaker 1: wherever you listen, and we'd love to hear from you.

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Speaker 1: Email us questions or comments at Big Take at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot Net. The supervising producer of The Big Take is

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00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 1: Vicky Vergolina. Our senior producer and the producer of this

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00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 1: episode is Catherine Fink. Phil de Garcia is our engineer.

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Speaker 1: Our original music was composed by Leo Sidrin. I'm West Kasova.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back on Monday with another Big Take. Have

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Speaker 1: a great weekend, do dog tag don pot Patter