WEBVTT - The Global Fight Against COVID-19 0:00:15.356 --> 0:00:22.996 Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background, the podcast 0:00:23.036 --> 0:00:26.116 where we explore the stories behind the stories in the news. 0:00:26.636 --> 0:00:29.916 I'm Noah Feldman. If you've been following this show for 0:00:29.956 --> 0:00:32.636 the last couple of months, you'll know that I've covered 0:00:32.636 --> 0:00:35.596 the coronavirus pandemic from a lot of angles. But there's 0:00:35.676 --> 0:00:38.316 one that we haven't yet reached that I've really been 0:00:38.356 --> 0:00:41.836 trying to puzzle over, and that is the diminishing or 0:00:41.876 --> 0:00:48.036 even almost non existent role of international organizations. Whole countries 0:00:48.076 --> 0:00:52.076 are making headlines for imposing and lifting social restrictions, but 0:00:52.156 --> 0:00:55.636 the who. The World Health Organization is having its funds 0:00:55.636 --> 0:00:59.876 cut off by President Donald Trump without international leadership. The 0:01:00.036 --> 0:01:03.596 UN is also struggling to do its job. What's the 0:01:03.636 --> 0:01:07.076 story behind all of this? What are these organizations supposed 0:01:07.156 --> 0:01:10.756 to be doing? Who's filling them? Here to discuss this 0:01:10.836 --> 0:01:14.316 with me today is not er Musa Vizade Nonnor is 0:01:14.316 --> 0:01:18.516 an extraordinary geopolitical thinker who worked extremely closely as an 0:01:18.516 --> 0:01:21.916 advisor for many years with Secretary General Kofi a On 0:01:21.996 --> 0:01:25.756 of United Nations. He's held leadership positions in a wide 0:01:25.836 --> 0:01:28.756 range of global institutions around the world, and today he's 0:01:28.796 --> 0:01:32.436 leading a Macroadvisory Partners, a firm that provides strategies to 0:01:32.476 --> 0:01:37.836 businesses and governments around the world. Nonna, thank you very 0:01:37.916 --> 0:01:41.116 much for joining me. I hugely appreciate it. I wanted 0:01:41.196 --> 0:01:45.956 to start with international organizations, and they're always an alphabet 0:01:46.036 --> 0:01:49.396 soup of acronyms, you know, from the better known like 0:01:49.436 --> 0:01:53.756 the UN to the WHO, the World Health Organization. Then 0:01:53.796 --> 0:01:58.036 we've got the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank. What 0:01:58.156 --> 0:02:01.596 are they supposed to be doing right now? We all 0:02:01.636 --> 0:02:03.756 have the sense that they're not doing exactly what they're 0:02:03.756 --> 0:02:05.436 supposed to do, But what are they supposed to do 0:02:05.476 --> 0:02:08.356 in the first place? Thank you, No. I think the 0:02:08.396 --> 0:02:11.476 first thing to think about when considering the role of 0:02:11.476 --> 0:02:14.756 these organizations today is that they were set up, most 0:02:14.756 --> 0:02:17.516 of the ones in your alphabet soup exactly seventy five 0:02:17.596 --> 0:02:20.716 years ago as part of a world order that was 0:02:20.756 --> 0:02:23.996 supposed to in the aftermath of the Second World War 0:02:24.756 --> 0:02:28.276 establish a set of rules by which countries both would cooperate, 0:02:28.996 --> 0:02:33.036 regulate their disputes, and where there were common interests, work together. 0:02:33.356 --> 0:02:36.236 And that's where WHO is one example in the air 0:02:36.316 --> 0:02:40.596 of global health. The IMF is institution. In the area 0:02:40.596 --> 0:02:43.316 of financial stability, and that was the purpose they were 0:02:43.316 --> 0:02:46.956 set up for. So if they're supposed to coordinate our efforts, 0:02:47.516 --> 0:02:49.756 how would they do that? In theory? Like, how would 0:02:49.756 --> 0:02:54.156 the WHO work on paper in a situation of global pandemic? 0:02:54.596 --> 0:02:57.996 What are they supposed to do for us? The key 0:02:58.076 --> 0:03:00.916 role for the WHO in a pandemic or in a 0:03:00.996 --> 0:03:04.476 crisis of a global health nature of any kind really 0:03:04.556 --> 0:03:08.316 is to do two things. One is to provide technical 0:03:08.316 --> 0:03:13.316 assistance emergency advice to those countries most exposed and least 0:03:13.356 --> 0:03:16.556 able based on the strength of their own public health systems. 0:03:16.916 --> 0:03:20.076 And then also play a broader normative rule, what are 0:03:20.076 --> 0:03:23.116 the ways in which the world can cooperate better? Be 0:03:23.236 --> 0:03:28.276 a catalyst for action, for alliances and for cooperation. And 0:03:28.316 --> 0:03:30.916 you'd really think we would need to cooperate in a 0:03:30.956 --> 0:03:34.876 pandemic because obviously the virus doesn't know borders and it's 0:03:34.876 --> 0:03:37.556 spreading everywhere, and yet we have this incredible patchwork of 0:03:37.756 --> 0:03:41.036 approaches all over the world. In principle, would the WHO 0:03:41.116 --> 0:03:43.916 give advice that countries would be bound to follow or 0:03:43.916 --> 0:03:46.196 would it just be suggestions? Sort of the way Donald 0:03:46.236 --> 0:03:48.876 Trump is chosen not to dictate to the States, but 0:03:48.956 --> 0:03:51.796 it's rather allowed states to make their own determinations. Yeah, 0:03:51.796 --> 0:03:54.236 I mean, I think what we see in the response 0:03:54.356 --> 0:03:57.756 of something like the WHO. Remember again, these are inter 0:03:57.876 --> 0:04:02.276 governmental organizations with all the bureaucracy and all the rules 0:04:02.276 --> 0:04:05.356 around cooperation collaboration that you'd expect. But if you think 0:04:05.396 --> 0:04:09.636 about COVID nineteen, what we have seen and but COVID 0:04:09.796 --> 0:04:13.476 found in the international system as it arrived, particularly the 0:04:13.476 --> 0:04:17.356 case of WHO is two key features. One is that 0:04:17.556 --> 0:04:24.076 WHO historically has been underfunded, underresourced, and over bureaucratic, as 0:04:24.116 --> 0:04:28.356 well as having a really quite contentious relationship with global pharma. 0:04:28.476 --> 0:04:33.116 So that's the underlying characteristic and reputation of WHO coming 0:04:33.116 --> 0:04:36.436 into this, even though in its leadership today and other 0:04:36.476 --> 0:04:39.116 ways in which it's responded, I think it's been actually 0:04:39.436 --> 0:04:42.476 surprising a lot of people. In effectiveness the other key 0:04:42.516 --> 0:04:44.996 element here, and this is something those of us who 0:04:45.036 --> 0:04:47.956 grew up in the UN and elsewhere continue to harp 0:04:47.996 --> 0:04:51.356 on about, which perhaps sometimes seems like an excuse, but 0:04:51.396 --> 0:04:54.836 it is the reality that these organizations only work if 0:04:54.836 --> 0:04:57.436 the key actors in the world want them to work, 0:04:57.476 --> 0:05:01.196 and want them to work as centers of collaboration. And 0:05:01.236 --> 0:05:04.036 in this case, what we found is that the pandemic 0:05:04.116 --> 0:05:07.956 comes to the world and finds a WHO not only underfunded, 0:05:08.196 --> 0:05:11.316 but caught between the most important rivalry in the world today, 0:05:11.596 --> 0:05:14.636 which is between the United States and China. And so 0:05:14.676 --> 0:05:18.836 it's not working. What is the WHO in fact trying 0:05:18.916 --> 0:05:20.676 to do right now that they're failing to do? Are 0:05:20.676 --> 0:05:23.196 they just not trying because, as you say, they're caught 0:05:23.236 --> 0:05:25.836 between China and the United States and being beaten up 0:05:25.876 --> 0:05:28.196 to some degree by both. Well, I think what we're 0:05:28.236 --> 0:05:30.396 seeing actually is a bit of an X ray of 0:05:30.436 --> 0:05:32.716 the world as we find it today rather than the 0:05:32.756 --> 0:05:35.516 world that was imagined seventy five years ago or may 0:05:35.556 --> 0:05:37.996 have been imagined in A lot of the cooperation that 0:05:38.156 --> 0:05:41.996 was intended around this, which is that in the vacuum 0:05:42.516 --> 0:05:47.436 left by a WHO, which was underfunded and under mandated, 0:05:47.876 --> 0:05:52.156 stepped in a number of global philanthropies organizations, principally the 0:05:52.156 --> 0:05:56.076 Gates Foundation, but others as well, looking at the broader 0:05:56.116 --> 0:05:59.156 global public health challenge and saying what can we do 0:05:59.676 --> 0:06:05.396 as independent private sector philanthropic actors with access to capital, 0:06:06.116 --> 0:06:09.756 reliance on science and IT bias for action and cooperation. 0:06:10.236 --> 0:06:12.396 And so what you're seeing when you ask yourself, what 0:06:12.476 --> 0:06:15.236 is the WHO doing today it is being asked to 0:06:15.316 --> 0:06:19.076 play a role in some ways convening, in other ways 0:06:19.596 --> 0:06:23.516 providing a sense of global legitimacy to these kinds of 0:06:23.556 --> 0:06:28.076 efforts which now increasingly are catalyzed by actors which were 0:06:28.076 --> 0:06:31.436 not imagined when these global institutions were set up. And 0:06:31.516 --> 0:06:35.396 that is both a role that these independent private sector, 0:06:35.436 --> 0:06:39.636 often philanthropic organizations can play because they have access to 0:06:39.756 --> 0:06:43.116 capital and science, and also because they are not driven 0:06:43.556 --> 0:06:47.676 by national or nationalistic agendas, much as we see so 0:06:47.756 --> 0:06:52.276 much of the world powers operate today. This is fascinating 0:06:52.276 --> 0:06:54.956 and I want to ask you to dive down into it. 0:06:55.196 --> 0:06:57.716 What I hear you saying is perhaps there are no 0:06:57.756 --> 0:06:59.436 fault of its own or just in virtue of the 0:06:59.436 --> 0:07:02.436 way it's designed. The who hasn't been capable at this 0:07:02.556 --> 0:07:06.836 moment of providing effective global coordination or advice that major 0:07:06.876 --> 0:07:10.436 countries would listen to that vacuum I hear you're saying. 0:07:10.596 --> 0:07:13.236 The words that stuck in my mind were Gates Foundation. 0:07:13.636 --> 0:07:16.356 There are others too, but Bill Gates has gotten a 0:07:16.436 --> 0:07:19.996 huge amount of attention, positive and negative for what he's 0:07:20.036 --> 0:07:22.596 been trying to do. Tell us what he and the 0:07:22.636 --> 0:07:24.836 Gates Foundation are doing in fact, so we can try 0:07:24.836 --> 0:07:27.276 to make sense of whether the criticisms or the praise 0:07:27.316 --> 0:07:30.036 are warranted. So I think the first thing I would 0:07:30.036 --> 0:07:32.356 say is when the history books are written about this 0:07:32.796 --> 0:07:35.796 a pandemic and the crisis for the world, there will 0:07:35.836 --> 0:07:39.076 be in amazement actually at the role of one foundation 0:07:39.116 --> 0:07:41.076 and one man. And I think the important thing to 0:07:41.116 --> 0:07:44.436 remember is not just that Bill Gates stepped out now, 0:07:44.716 --> 0:07:48.756 but that he had already created institutions which had for 0:07:48.796 --> 0:07:53.596 some time been leading the world in developing vaccine, thinking 0:07:53.636 --> 0:07:58.636 about pandemic preparedness, thinking about immunization of children in the 0:07:58.676 --> 0:08:02.756 poorest parts of the world, and supporting something like the 0:08:02.796 --> 0:08:07.316 Global Fund against HIV, Tuberculosis and Malaria, which was something 0:08:07.316 --> 0:08:10.956 that Kofiana in fact established in the early two thousands 0:08:10.996 --> 0:08:14.716 in response to the global HIV AI's pandemic. And there 0:08:14.716 --> 0:08:18.596 we saw actually perhaps the last time there was enough 0:08:18.596 --> 0:08:21.956 global cooperation and frankly enough global leadership that something like 0:08:22.196 --> 0:08:24.236 that could be stood up in the middle of a 0:08:24.316 --> 0:08:27.276 crisis as a global response. With the Gates Foundation has 0:08:27.316 --> 0:08:30.116 done since, both with its support for the Global Fund, 0:08:30.116 --> 0:08:33.236 but also with entities such as GAVI and sepages to 0:08:33.316 --> 0:08:36.916 add to your alphabet soup is to establish and fund 0:08:37.356 --> 0:08:41.676 and convene partnerships where they are often the largest funder, 0:08:41.836 --> 0:08:44.956 but really are there to do something really important, which 0:08:45.036 --> 0:08:47.436 is to say, with the WH show not being able 0:08:47.516 --> 0:08:50.916 to play its role, with governments being either too domestically 0:08:50.956 --> 0:08:57.076 focused or too nationalistic to cooperate, here are institutions that 0:08:57.116 --> 0:09:00.796 have the support of a key funder who is as 0:09:00.836 --> 0:09:04.716 I said, science based bias for action, access to capital, 0:09:04.756 --> 0:09:07.756 and can then drawin others in working together. And I 0:09:07.796 --> 0:09:11.396 think that's the world the pandemic also found. It found 0:09:11.436 --> 0:09:14.316 actually in these institutions that many people had really not 0:09:14.436 --> 0:09:18.156 heard of, at least the beginnings the foundations of the 0:09:18.236 --> 0:09:21.076 kind of global response. And that's why when the WHO 0:09:21.196 --> 0:09:25.556 makes it announcement of a new alliance around both diagnostics, 0:09:25.836 --> 0:09:30.516 therapeutics and vaccines, the Gates Foundation is a very principal speaker. 0:09:30.636 --> 0:09:33.516 All of its entities had separate speaking roles. And why 0:09:33.636 --> 0:09:36.436 is this important? Oh, it's important because it shows you 0:09:36.876 --> 0:09:41.916 that a private sector of philosophic enterprise essentially has co 0:09:42.236 --> 0:09:47.196 led the global response to the pandemic. Yes, with Who, 0:09:47.316 --> 0:09:49.796 but frankly with a couple of governments. And that's been 0:09:49.876 --> 0:09:53.076 the core of the response. What does that look like? Concretely, 0:09:53.356 --> 0:09:55.636 there's a press conference, lots of people are speaking, as 0:09:55.636 --> 0:09:58.556 you say, alongside the who it's a kind of kabuki theater. 0:09:58.636 --> 0:10:01.476 As you point out, who has speaking roles tells you 0:10:01.516 --> 0:10:04.436 where the power lies. But I still don't get what 0:10:04.596 --> 0:10:06.676 happens on a day to day basis. You know who's 0:10:06.716 --> 0:10:08.756 calling the shots and how are the shots being called. 0:10:09.156 --> 0:10:11.396 I think what's been so interesting about this crisis, and 0:10:11.956 --> 0:10:13.876 you and I have talked about many other crises over 0:10:13.916 --> 0:10:16.836 the years, but but so interesting about this crisis is 0:10:16.876 --> 0:10:21.116 that it really took a handful of actors and leaders, 0:10:21.676 --> 0:10:24.516 a lot of governments obviously scrambling initially what to do, 0:10:24.636 --> 0:10:27.996 which measures to take, what kind of public health infrastructure 0:10:27.996 --> 0:10:30.316 they had in place. But what we actually are talking 0:10:30.356 --> 0:10:34.356 about in the case of the response globally, because China 0:10:34.436 --> 0:10:37.556 has been hugely focused on its own domestic response yes 0:10:37.596 --> 0:10:42.356 on some international behaviors. The United States remains enormously focused 0:10:42.396 --> 0:10:46.396 on its domestic challenge. So globally the response really has 0:10:46.396 --> 0:10:50.476 been led by President Makhall of France, Chancellor mercle of Germany, 0:10:50.476 --> 0:10:53.116 and Bill Gates. So what happened was there were a 0:10:53.196 --> 0:10:56.876 number of ideas, and people were circulating proposals for global 0:10:56.876 --> 0:11:01.276 cooperation and alliances between various institutions. But really what happened 0:11:01.276 --> 0:11:03.876 in the last two weeks was that a series of 0:11:03.876 --> 0:11:08.996 phone calls between Marcol Gates, Christina Geogeva at the IMA, 0:11:09.796 --> 0:11:12.916 really a handful of global leaders, a global response was 0:11:12.956 --> 0:11:16.916 designed and then executed, and then other parts of the 0:11:16.916 --> 0:11:20.436 global system, frankly were added afterwards, which is things like 0:11:20.476 --> 0:11:22.956 the WHO, which had less of a role in the 0:11:23.076 --> 0:11:26.356 design and more of role now in the fronting of it. 0:11:26.636 --> 0:11:29.436 Global pharma obviously needs to play a role. But what 0:11:29.596 --> 0:11:32.596 was so interesting about this crisis is it really was 0:11:32.676 --> 0:11:37.316 the personal diplomacy. The personal relationship between Maco and Marcol, 0:11:37.716 --> 0:11:41.116 Christina Geo gave the IMF and the Gates Foundation, who 0:11:41.236 --> 0:11:45.196 ended up being principal drivers of the global response. So 0:11:45.396 --> 0:11:48.596 not are what you're just described is sort of astonishing 0:11:48.596 --> 0:11:53.036 to me. You said that three people, the President of France, 0:11:53.556 --> 0:11:57.676 the Chancellor of Germany and Bill Gates co ordinated an 0:11:57.716 --> 0:12:01.396 international strategy on the phone with some facilitation from the 0:12:01.396 --> 0:12:04.956 head of the IMF, and then they basically told the 0:12:05.116 --> 0:12:07.996 WHO to appear and as you put it, front the 0:12:08.076 --> 0:12:11.156 plan that for international coordination that they'd come up with. 0:12:11.596 --> 0:12:14.436 How literally do you mean that? I mean literally you're 0:12:14.436 --> 0:12:16.636 describing phone calls with Bill Gates on one side and 0:12:16.636 --> 0:12:18.796 Emmanuel Mark call on the other, or on Glimmercal on 0:12:18.836 --> 0:12:21.236 the other saying we think that this is the right 0:12:21.276 --> 0:12:25.236 coordinative strategy on the basis of this plan devised by 0:12:25.636 --> 0:12:28.996 Gates Foundation supported entities. Is that what you're describing put 0:12:28.996 --> 0:12:31.716 it this way, There's no doubt that, of course other 0:12:31.756 --> 0:12:35.436 governments who are involved early on the European Commission, who 0:12:35.596 --> 0:12:38.996 in doctor Chedros has been very active daily in lots 0:12:38.996 --> 0:12:41.956 of calls. But the question these kinds of crises is 0:12:42.156 --> 0:12:45.836 who ends up seizing the talking stick and then holding it. 0:12:46.156 --> 0:12:49.196 And in this case, amongst the many proposals that were 0:12:49.236 --> 0:12:53.436 out there, the various kinds of alliances, finding the path 0:12:53.796 --> 0:12:56.156 to have clarity to say, this is what we're going 0:12:56.196 --> 0:12:58.716 to know on diagnostics, this is what we're going to 0:12:58.716 --> 0:13:00.596 do on therapeutics, and this is what we're going to 0:13:00.676 --> 0:13:04.116 do on vaccines. What kind of institutions will be the 0:13:04.236 --> 0:13:07.356 vehicles for the focus of the global effort? And lo 0:13:07.516 --> 0:13:11.436 and behold it is the Gates funded vehicles. Seppi gave 0:13:11.596 --> 0:13:13.876 into a certain extent the global fund that will be 0:13:13.916 --> 0:13:18.556 the main instruments, and having the force basically to seize 0:13:18.556 --> 0:13:21.956 the agenda and say this is where the global consensus 0:13:21.996 --> 0:13:26.156 will sit. That was despite dozens of leaders and dobens 0:13:26.156 --> 0:13:28.876 of actors involved in this. At the end of the day, 0:13:29.556 --> 0:13:32.036 it comes down to three or four people who have 0:13:32.196 --> 0:13:34.196 enough weight to bring enough of the rest of the 0:13:34.236 --> 0:13:37.756 consensus with them and who agree on the core mission. 0:13:37.756 --> 0:13:41.156 And there I think what you saw being the decisive 0:13:41.236 --> 0:13:45.396 factors was in Merkel, a chancellor with huge trust and 0:13:45.476 --> 0:13:48.716 social trust and political trust in her own system as 0:13:48.756 --> 0:13:53.276 scientists by training, with a pre existing strong relationship with 0:13:53.476 --> 0:13:57.756 Bill Gates, and in President Macon, a leader of Europe 0:13:57.996 --> 0:14:01.436 who always is more ambitious than both France and Europe, 0:14:01.596 --> 0:14:03.996 and between the three of them were able to say 0:14:04.076 --> 0:14:06.596 this is where the consensus needs to sit. Yes, we 0:14:06.636 --> 0:14:09.076 will now make the necessary phone calls to the other lead. 0:14:09.556 --> 0:14:12.516 But that's how this was devised. We'll be back in 0:14:12.556 --> 0:14:25.236 just a moment. There is a form of critique of 0:14:25.276 --> 0:14:28.636 what's happening internationally, sometimes from the left, sometimes from the right, 0:14:28.636 --> 0:14:32.796 and they actually sound surprisingly similar at this point that says, okay, 0:14:33.236 --> 0:14:38.956 an unelected, multi multi billionaire. Bill Gates is calling the 0:14:38.996 --> 0:14:42.476 shots to a huge degree, is much or more than 0:14:42.596 --> 0:14:46.476 heads of state. And he's doing this because he has 0:14:46.516 --> 0:14:49.436 amassed all of this capital. And you say, he's in 0:14:49.476 --> 0:14:53.316 his foundation are science based and biased for action, but 0:14:53.396 --> 0:14:56.036 he's also aligned at a very basic level with the 0:14:56.076 --> 0:14:59.156 international structure of capitalism. I mean, that's what he comes 0:14:59.156 --> 0:15:02.396 out of, that's who he knows, that's his world. And 0:15:02.996 --> 0:15:06.196 the critique is that this is not okay. And I 0:15:06.276 --> 0:15:08.356 always sort of dismissed this by saying, oh, come on, 0:15:08.476 --> 0:15:10.036 you know, that's not what really happening out there. And 0:15:10.036 --> 0:15:11.516 I think I'm starting to feel like I'm a little 0:15:11.556 --> 0:15:13.196 naive and dismissing it. I mean, it sounds like what 0:15:13.196 --> 0:15:16.716 you're describing is actually a situation in which, in the 0:15:16.716 --> 0:15:21.196 phase of relatively weak international organizations, a hugely successful global 0:15:21.236 --> 0:15:26.076 capitalist is issuing strong suggestions that are then transformed into 0:15:26.116 --> 0:15:29.596 actually being policy. I mean, am I getting that right? 0:15:29.716 --> 0:15:32.436 That's sort of shocking to me. Look, I think you're 0:15:32.436 --> 0:15:39.036 identifying something that's a genuine challenge and a genuine difficulty 0:15:39.196 --> 0:15:41.916 about the world we find ourselves. And you know, for 0:15:41.956 --> 0:15:43.996 those of us who grew up in places like the 0:15:44.076 --> 0:15:47.076 UN and elsewhere in the international system, the challenge was 0:15:47.076 --> 0:15:51.476 always that there was legitimacy but no efficacy, i e. 0:15:51.716 --> 0:15:53.916 The institutions because they had every country of the world 0:15:53.956 --> 0:15:56.956 as their members were broadly seen as global, legitimate, everyone 0:15:57.036 --> 0:15:59.916 had to vote in the General Assembly, etc. Etc. But 0:15:59.996 --> 0:16:03.636 the effectiveness was always lacking. And I think what we 0:16:03.756 --> 0:16:06.556 have here is the opposite challenge, which is, yes, there 0:16:06.636 --> 0:16:10.396 is effectiveness, there's ability to harness these various resources that 0:16:10.476 --> 0:16:13.596 he has, but where does the legitimacy come from? And 0:16:13.756 --> 0:16:16.876 how can he be held accountable at all? And I 0:16:16.916 --> 0:16:20.796 think it's really important to pose that question and to 0:16:20.836 --> 0:16:23.076 think about it now. The two things that I think 0:16:23.116 --> 0:16:26.956 are important for context is the reason Bill Gates and 0:16:27.076 --> 0:16:31.196 his foundations play the role they do today is because 0:16:31.236 --> 0:16:36.636 of an absence of more effective, who more effective global 0:16:36.676 --> 0:16:39.956 institutions in these areas, and so he has stepped in. 0:16:40.036 --> 0:16:43.836 They have stepped in as funders, as supporters, as conveners 0:16:43.836 --> 0:16:47.996 of institutions. That absolutely we would have been much better off, 0:16:48.116 --> 0:16:52.836 so to speak, if you'd have global organizations with genuine 0:16:52.876 --> 0:16:57.396 global legitimacy and sense of accountability running these But that's 0:16:57.396 --> 0:16:59.716 not the world we're in and so he has stepped 0:16:59.716 --> 0:17:02.676 into a vacuum. And I think one of the ways 0:17:02.716 --> 0:17:06.796 that we can look at whether this ultimately is a legitimate, 0:17:07.316 --> 0:17:11.436 an accountable solution to this global pandemic is whether something 0:17:11.516 --> 0:17:14.716 really important is achieved, and that is whether both the 0:17:14.716 --> 0:17:18.836 therapeutics and the vaccine are delivered as a global public 0:17:18.876 --> 0:17:25.436 good ie produced at scale, at speed, and delivered on 0:17:25.476 --> 0:17:29.396 an equity basis across the world at a cost that 0:17:29.476 --> 0:17:32.516 everyone can afford. That's the meaning of a global public good. 0:17:32.796 --> 0:17:35.036 And I think that will be the real test of 0:17:35.116 --> 0:17:39.076 whether this solution not just was a bias for action, 0:17:39.116 --> 0:17:41.796 bias for science, but actually got us the right outcome. 0:17:42.596 --> 0:17:45.756 I appreciate the pragmatism of your answer, but I want 0:17:45.796 --> 0:17:48.396 to push back. I think that when you're talking about 0:17:48.716 --> 0:17:51.756 global governance, which is what we're talking about, legitimacy has 0:17:51.836 --> 0:17:54.876 at least two parts. It has who picked you? And 0:17:54.956 --> 0:17:57.196 it are you accountable to the people who picked you? 0:17:57.796 --> 0:18:00.996 In this instance, nobody picked Bill Gates except in some 0:18:01.076 --> 0:18:03.636 general sense that the capitalist system throws off a handful 0:18:03.636 --> 0:18:06.116 of incredibly rich people who then can choose it to 0:18:06.196 --> 0:18:07.836 use their money how they wish, and it's great if 0:18:07.836 --> 0:18:09.956 they use it pro socially, so no one picked him, 0:18:09.956 --> 0:18:12.796 so in that sense, his role can't be legitimate. And 0:18:12.836 --> 0:18:15.796 the second component is is he accountable? And I don't 0:18:15.796 --> 0:18:17.636 think there is a way to hold somebody accountable under 0:18:17.636 --> 0:18:21.036 those circumstances. If let's say none of the vaccines work out, 0:18:21.636 --> 0:18:23.156 or if they do work out but they end up 0:18:23.156 --> 0:18:26.956 disproportionately being given to richer countries, nothing's going to happen 0:18:26.956 --> 0:18:30.076 to Bill Gates, Makran or Merkel can be kicked out 0:18:30.076 --> 0:18:33.476 of office. I mean, that's the fundamental difference between an 0:18:33.476 --> 0:18:36.836 elected representative of the people and someone who just steps 0:18:36.916 --> 0:18:39.156 up and says here I am. So I'm skeptical of 0:18:39.196 --> 0:18:43.116 the idea that we can backload legitimacy by saying, well, 0:18:43.156 --> 0:18:45.516 if it worked, it worked. I mean that is, you know, 0:18:45.596 --> 0:18:47.556 not to put too fine a point on it. Always 0:18:47.596 --> 0:18:50.916 one of the arguments for non democratic government while nothing 0:18:50.916 --> 0:18:53.316 else is working. Democracy is a mess. Let's just have 0:18:53.396 --> 0:18:56.476 one person in charge, so you know that to me 0:18:56.596 --> 0:18:59.076 is a genuine concern. Democracy is not perfect. It has 0:18:59.116 --> 0:19:01.276 all kinds of flaws, but it is usually thought to 0:19:01.276 --> 0:19:03.076 be at least I think it is better than the alternatives. 0:19:03.116 --> 0:19:05.556 And this sounds like one of the alternatives. I would 0:19:05.556 --> 0:19:07.036 say a couple of things, because I think you are 0:19:07.196 --> 0:19:10.156 pointing to a really important demand of this. The one 0:19:10.196 --> 0:19:13.516 thing is to say that we should continue to be 0:19:13.716 --> 0:19:17.756 mindful and vigilant about the lack of both legitimacy and accountability. 0:19:18.156 --> 0:19:19.796 I think the second part of my answer, and maybe 0:19:19.836 --> 0:19:23.196 that's where my pragmatism comes from, Noah, which perhaps isn't 0:19:23.236 --> 0:19:27.396 as democratically guided as you would think or want, is 0:19:27.436 --> 0:19:29.676 that this is a pragmatism that comes from having spent 0:19:30.036 --> 0:19:32.236 almost ten years of the UN in some of its 0:19:32.476 --> 0:19:34.996 best days in the last thirty years, and some of 0:19:35.036 --> 0:19:40.036 its worst, and looking at what actually is the consequence 0:19:40.276 --> 0:19:43.836 of these global institutions that may have the legitimacy that 0:19:43.916 --> 0:19:47.356 you're asking for, have some form of accountability, but I 0:19:47.356 --> 0:19:50.516 think you can debate that, but have been so lacking 0:19:51.036 --> 0:19:54.956 in delivering what they actually were established to do, which 0:19:55.076 --> 0:20:00.196 is peace and security, development, poverty eradication, public health goods. 0:20:00.436 --> 0:20:03.236 And if it is through these kinds of alliances, which 0:20:03.276 --> 0:20:08.036 by necessity are with individuals, institutions which have not been 0:20:08.076 --> 0:20:12.996 democratically establ published nor are democratically lad but can marshal 0:20:13.436 --> 0:20:19.156 both resources, science and technology to what will be determined 0:20:19.316 --> 0:20:23.756 democratically and legitimately as the global public good that we're 0:20:23.796 --> 0:20:28.476 going after. Then I think absent evidence to the contrary 0:20:28.556 --> 0:20:30.796 that this is the best we can do in the 0:20:30.836 --> 0:20:33.436 world that we're in right now, we need to think 0:20:33.476 --> 0:20:39.236 about who has the firetruck, and, without stretching the metaphor 0:20:39.236 --> 0:20:41.876 too much, if it's the wrong guy holding the hose 0:20:41.956 --> 0:20:44.196 for a while, at least he's the guy who had 0:20:44.236 --> 0:20:47.396 the firetruck able to show up on time, and in time, 0:20:47.436 --> 0:20:50.076 hopefully we'll have other trucks around him and others can 0:20:50.116 --> 0:20:52.916 contribute to the solution so that it is not, as 0:20:52.956 --> 0:20:57.916 you rightly point out, leverage simply to one unelectable, unaccountable 0:20:57.956 --> 0:21:01.396 individual and the foundation the mission that he has not. 0:21:01.556 --> 0:21:04.036 Are you mentioned that the context for everything that we've 0:21:04.076 --> 0:21:07.596 been discussing is a global context, with the US and 0:21:07.676 --> 0:21:13.316 China essentially fighting each other the stage only verbally, but 0:21:13.396 --> 0:21:15.356 it's pretty significant, and it's one of the things that's 0:21:15.356 --> 0:21:18.636 hamstringing the international organizations, even though they were a little 0:21:18.636 --> 0:21:20.396 bit designed for the context of the Cold War, so 0:21:20.476 --> 0:21:22.196 in theory they ought to work better than they're working out. 0:21:22.196 --> 0:21:25.436 But that was a long time ago, we've both been obsessed. 0:21:25.476 --> 0:21:27.436 I think it's not too strong a term with the 0:21:27.556 --> 0:21:30.516 US China relationship for a decade. Now, how do you 0:21:30.556 --> 0:21:33.796 see it going at this moment? So I think it's 0:21:33.836 --> 0:21:39.116 not an exaggeration to say that the relationship is at 0:21:39.156 --> 0:21:44.756 a critical stage with very few vectors in favor of 0:21:45.076 --> 0:21:50.156 slowing this further free fall. You know, the crisis between 0:21:50.236 --> 0:21:54.436 United States and China is fundamentally of a shift in 0:21:54.516 --> 0:21:58.916 Washington from cheating China as a competitor to treating China 0:21:58.916 --> 0:22:03.356 as an adversary and in equally nationalistic shift in Beijing 0:22:03.876 --> 0:22:06.596 of a very different agenda for China and its role 0:22:06.636 --> 0:22:09.036 in its power and influence in the twenty first century. 0:22:09.356 --> 0:22:13.076 So you take that underlying structural change, and then you 0:22:13.116 --> 0:22:16.196 think of all the dimensions. Be at sports, be a business, 0:22:16.276 --> 0:22:20.076 be a technology, be a capital, be at people, and yes, 0:22:20.276 --> 0:22:22.916 a pandemic comes along, Well, is that going to be 0:22:22.916 --> 0:22:25.676 an arena for cooperation? Of course it isn't. If your 0:22:25.916 --> 0:22:30.236 basic disposition is anything that's a win for China is 0:22:30.236 --> 0:22:34.236 a loss to us, than anything that who does that 0:22:34.436 --> 0:22:37.596 is helpful in any way to China is a loss 0:22:37.636 --> 0:22:39.836 for us. And that's how I think it's playing out. 0:22:40.156 --> 0:22:42.636 I think we have to worry a lot about how 0:22:42.796 --> 0:22:47.316 once the pandemic has passed its emergency stage, what are 0:22:47.316 --> 0:22:50.116 we left with. I think we're left with even deeper 0:22:50.156 --> 0:22:54.196 divisions over, yes, the response to the pandemic, but we're 0:22:54.236 --> 0:22:58.516 also left with a mindset where, in a hundred different ways, 0:22:58.556 --> 0:23:02.676 every day, decisions are being made to further separate the 0:23:02.676 --> 0:23:06.916 two economies and societies rather than keep them cooperating. Lots 0:23:06.956 --> 0:23:08.356 more for us to discuss here or not or I 0:23:08.396 --> 0:23:10.916 hope you will come back another time to talk about 0:23:10.996 --> 0:23:13.676 US China and what the world looks like now and 0:23:13.756 --> 0:23:15.916 what it will look like in the aftermath of the pandemic. 0:23:15.996 --> 0:23:18.316 Thank you so much for your time. I really appreciate it. Thanks, 0:23:18.436 --> 0:23:21.956 thank you. Speaking to an honor, I got a feeling 0:23:21.956 --> 0:23:24.236 that I often get when I speak to him, namely 0:23:24.316 --> 0:23:29.076 that there's a whole subworld of how power actually operates 0:23:29.356 --> 0:23:33.036