1 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:13,680 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. 2 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 2: I'm Jill Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway. 3 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:19,319 Speaker 1: Tracy, obviously, one of the best things of doing odd 4 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:22,959 Speaker 1: loss is just all the random fun things that we learned. 5 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:25,119 Speaker 1: I mean that you know, that we learn over the 6 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: course of the year, or that we learn in any 7 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 1: given episode. 8 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 3: Yeah. 9 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 2: I don't know of many other jobs where you can 10 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:33,840 Speaker 2: just kind of look into anything that you think might 11 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 2: be interesting, but this is one of them. And on 12 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 2: all thloughts, I suppose we do have a reputation nowadays 13 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:43,559 Speaker 2: for covering a wide variety of topics, so things that 14 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:45,919 Speaker 2: are going on right now, things that may have happened 15 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 2: in the past, And it means that we learn a 16 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 2: lot about a wide variety of. 17 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: Subjects, and some of them, of course are you know, 18 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 1: we learn about them, and the you know, what we 19 00:00:56,320 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: learned is interesting but also sort of straightforward. So for example, 20 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 1: you know, I'm not surprised that an increase in steel costs, 21 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:09,400 Speaker 1: although that's interesting, makes it harder to build offshore wind 22 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 1: but I was surprised to learn, for example, that the 23 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:17,959 Speaker 1: Jones Act, perpetual oddlote topic was also an impediment also interesting, 24 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 1: also very surprising in a way I was definitely not anticipating. 25 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 2: Yes, it all comes back to the Jones Act. This 26 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 2: is sort of a classic all thoughts thing where we 27 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 2: discover one aspect of the world or the economy, and 28 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 2: then we keep discovering it in other conversations. It keeps 29 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:35,479 Speaker 2: coming up. But it is the end of the year 30 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 2: and we are both in a reflective mood, and so 31 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 2: we've gone over all the conversations that we had in 32 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 2: twenty twenty three and we've picked out our top ten 33 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 2: most interesting and most surprising things that we have learned 34 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 2: this year. 35 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 3: Yep. 36 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: So let's kick it straight off with an episode with 37 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 1: a Josh Younger on the origin of euro dollars. 38 00:01:57,040 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 4: So the first the definition of the euro dollar being 39 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 4: deployed off sure is fairly specific, and the question is 40 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 4: when did that start, and we don't really know. We 41 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 4: know roughly in the late forties to declassified CIA documents. 42 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 4: After the war ended, the Russians were moving money around 43 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 4: because they were worried about a subsequent land war in 44 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 4: Europe and they didn't want their funds to be frozen. 45 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:19,119 Speaker 4: Never mind the weirdness of like a Soviet invasion where 46 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 4: they need dollars. I'm not sure why that would be necessary, 47 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:23,640 Speaker 4: but they were uncomfortable leaving money in New York and 48 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 4: so there were a handful. 49 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 2: Title of this episode should be the Communist origins of 50 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:29,799 Speaker 2: euro dollars area. 51 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, and so there were a sanctions which which connects 52 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 4: somewhat to today, and they moved their money from New 53 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 4: York banks to a handful of banks to specifically in France, London, 54 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 4: and Belgium, because the local regulations allowed those banks to 55 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 4: issue non local currency deposits. Your local regular has to 56 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 4: allow this in the first instance. And in Paris in particular, 57 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 4: there was a bank called basically the Commercial Bank of 58 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 4: Northern Europe. I'm not going to try to pronounce it 59 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:56,239 Speaker 4: in French, but it was called Bison. Bison was run 60 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 4: by a notorious Communist sympathizer who had relationships in Moscow, 61 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 4: and so they were comfortable with that particular bank, and 62 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 4: they grew its assets from seven million dollars to two 63 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 4: hundred million dollars over a few years. The first recorded 64 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:12,119 Speaker 4: use of those euro dollars was possibly, although it's hard 65 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 4: to say, replacing the salaries of striking French coal miners 66 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 4: forty eight. So there's some evidence of that, But that's 67 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,920 Speaker 4: not really a euro dollar in the definition that I 68 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 4: just described, because it doesn't really have a use because 69 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 4: I didn't say anything about the asset side of the equation. 70 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 2: So where did the asset side come from? This is 71 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 2: just going to be one of those episodes where we 72 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 2: ask you, like, how did this happen? 73 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 4: So it was tied basically to trade because trade was 74 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 4: denominated in dollars, but when it's all Communist dollars, it 75 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 4: has to be east west trades. So trade crossing the 76 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 4: Iron Curtain, which was small because both the Russians and 77 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 4: the Americans were not terribly comfortable with a large volume 78 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 4: of trade, and the Russians in particular had a policy 79 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 4: of self reliance, so they said, we don't want to 80 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 4: need imports from the West to run our economy or 81 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 4: a society. We don't know how big that was. It 82 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 4: was actually, as of nineteen forty seven, illegal to talk 83 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 4: about economic data in the Soviet Union. It was a 84 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 4: lot passed. It said, this is like punishable by some 85 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 4: extreme measure. Oh wow, So we don't actually know the 86 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 4: volume of this trade, but there's some evidence that it 87 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 4: was there, that it was funded in part by like 88 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 4: trade finance was facilitated by BSEN to some extent. It's 89 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:23,840 Speaker 4: unclear when it started, but it's a very small market. 90 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 2: The surprising communist origins of euro dollars, that's sort of 91 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 2: not only a classic Old Blots topic, but a sort 92 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 2: of classic line from one of our favorite guests, Josh Younger. 93 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:36,280 Speaker 1: Not that I'm thinking about it, were other Remember we 94 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 1: learned that there was euro dollars gum? 95 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:42,040 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, I went looking for a foot well. 96 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 2: I went on eBay to see if anyone was selling 97 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 2: gum from the nineteen seventies with this packaging. I could 98 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 2: not find it. 99 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:51,040 Speaker 1: But that was a great episode for many new and 100 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:52,119 Speaker 1: surprising things. 101 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 2: Yes, now, speaking of new and surprising things, another thing 102 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 2: we learned had to do with the sort of hidden 103 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 2: connection within economies and how economies evolve. And we spoke 104 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 2: to Ricardo Housman of the Center for International Developments Growth 105 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 2: Lab at Harvard University, and we talked to him about 106 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 2: how economies actually develop their complexity. He gave us a 107 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:22,679 Speaker 2: really unexpected example of how that works. Take a listen. 108 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 3: A lot of increase in complexity in Japan and Korea 109 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 3: did not happen because new companies were created to do 110 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 3: more things, but because established companies, these chiballs in Korea, 111 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 3: these k etsuos in Japan, divers fight internally into more things. 112 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:45,160 Speaker 3: So a company like Samson started in sugar trading, and 113 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 3: you know now they are the largest producer of semiconductors 114 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:53,719 Speaker 3: and sgrams and TV screens and smartphones. That process of 115 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:57,919 Speaker 3: transformation happened inside the company, and it happened by adding 116 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 3: capabilities to their capability. So for example, you'd say Finland 117 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 3: is a country that had a lot of trees, and 118 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 3: traditional development economists would have said, cut those trees and 119 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 3: sell wood. And then they would say, no, don't sell wood. 120 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,679 Speaker 3: Make furniture with that wood, or make paper with that wood. 121 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 3: Add value to your raw materials. But that's not where 122 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 3: the story really went. It's sort of like Finland had 123 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:22,840 Speaker 3: a lot of trees, so they have to cut the trees. 124 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 3: But to cut the trees, you need tools to cut trees. 125 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 3: You need machines to cut trees. So they became good 126 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 3: at tools and machines that cut wood, and from there 127 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 3: they moved to tools and machines that cut because not 128 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 3: everything is made out of wood. And from there they 129 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 3: made they went to automated machines that cut, because cutting 130 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 3: everything by hand can be either boring or imprecise. And 131 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:48,360 Speaker 3: then they said, you know, from automated machines that cut, 132 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 3: they want to just automated machines. Why do we need 133 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 3: to cut? There's more to life than just cutting, right, 134 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 3: And then from automated machines they ended up in Nokia. 135 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:02,480 Speaker 3: So the process is a process of adding capabilities to 136 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 3: their capabilities, because once you know how to do something, 137 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 3: there is something in that cognitive vicinity that you could do. 138 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 1: There's more to life than just cutting. It's got to 139 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 1: be like a great it's true, right, I never thought 140 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: about it, but it's definitely true. There's more to life 141 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 1: than just cutting. 142 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 2: Also, Ricardo's analogy of monkeys swinging from trees as an 143 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 2: economic metaphor that lives, that imagery lives free in my 144 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 2: head for all time. 145 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 1: But yeah, that was a great conversation, and thinking about 146 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 1: how economies actually develop in terms as opposed to how 147 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 1: you might expect them to develop on paper was really great. 148 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: All right, speaking of the sort of you know, I 149 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 1: guess we're going to speak on the complexity theme for 150 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 1: the moment. So with Ricardo, we talked about complexity in 151 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 1: terms of it's good that countries get more complex with 152 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 1: their economic development, but complexity it can also be bad 153 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 1: in some respects. And one area is that sort of 154 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 1: famously complex is any time we're dealing with government soft 155 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 1: and so. On this episode we spoke with Jennifer Palka 156 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:08,400 Speaker 1: and Dave Guarino, who at longtime veterans working on government software. 157 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: I think anyone who knows about government software government websites 158 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: probably no feels intuitively that they're more frustrating than to say, 159 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: you know, the website that you might use for a 160 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:20,680 Speaker 1: bank or buying an airline ticket or something like that. 161 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 1: So we're going to hear the story of a software 162 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 1: system that was so bad even the designer didn't believe 163 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 1: or couldn't believe it wasn't working. 164 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 5: When we were at California, State of California working on 165 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:35,599 Speaker 5: unemployment insurance, they were actually about to put out a 166 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:39,680 Speaker 5: Business System Modernization RFP. Actually I think about it to 167 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 5: award it to a vendor, and I think it had 168 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:45,200 Speaker 5: seven six seven hundred requirements. We can check that, but 169 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 5: it's in that's really a normal number of requirements, and 170 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 5: so they do all these things that where you can 171 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 5: check a box, but what they don't do is actually 172 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 5: check that it works. So I mean, maybe I'll just 173 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 5: tell a quick story from the book. And you know, 174 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 5: there was famously this application for veterans' healthcare benefits at 175 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 5: the VA that didn't work outside the building and they 176 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 5: couldn't see it. So basically, somewhere in the specs it 177 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 5: had that this form needed to work on a very 178 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 5: specific and outdated combination of Internet Explorer and Adobe Reader. 179 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 5: And the reason no one knew that it didn't work 180 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 5: inside the building is that's how all the computers in 181 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 5: there were set up. But if you were outside the 182 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:32,079 Speaker 5: building and had any other possible combination of those two 183 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 5: pieces of software, it literally wouldn't load. And so they 184 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:38,679 Speaker 5: had very very few people applying for these benefits online, 185 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 5: and you know, veterans were really, really, really frustrated, and 186 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 5: it took a team going out there recording a veteran 187 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 5: who had tried to do this dozens and dozens of times, 188 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 5: bringing that video back and showing it to the Deputy 189 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 5: secretary for them to be able to say, oh, okay, 190 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 5: actually there is something to be fixed here. Okay, you know, 191 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 5: you can go ahead and make a new form. But 192 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 5: up to them, they said, sorry, it's fine, we're looking 193 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,960 Speaker 5: at the requirements. The requirements have been met. There's technically 194 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 5: nothing wrong. 195 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:10,839 Speaker 2: That's amazing. It's also kind of crazy to think that 196 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 2: people would have been looking at that and just been like, oh, well, 197 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 2: I guess demand for veterans benefits is lower than we 198 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 2: thought it would be. But actually it was a tech issue. 199 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 5: I think what they said was demand for them doing 200 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 5: it online is low. These veterans must not have access, 201 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:26,079 Speaker 5: which is absolutely not true, or they can't figure out 202 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:28,080 Speaker 5: the computer when in factive. Yeah, I mean the other 203 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 5: telling them didn't figure out the software. They would tell them, 204 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 5: And they told this guy Dominic, the veteran that they interviewed, 205 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:35,040 Speaker 5: they kept telling him it's user error. There's something wrong 206 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 5: with you. 207 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:39,680 Speaker 2: That is still such a funny story. There are so 208 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:42,720 Speaker 2: many layers to it, so including the idea of people 209 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,079 Speaker 2: having to go out and shoot a video of a 210 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:48,680 Speaker 2: veteran trying to access this form and then bringing it 211 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 2: back to someone who would watch it and be like, oh, okay, 212 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 2: I see there is in fact a problem. But also 213 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 2: that anecdote at the beginning about designing one piece of 214 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 2: software for unemployment insurance with six thousand, seven hundred requirements, Like, 215 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:07,079 Speaker 2: how long does it take you to physically tick six thousand, 216 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 2: seven hundred boxes? Is there an actual form where you 217 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 2: have to go and like click every one of them? 218 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:13,440 Speaker 1: And how do you prove? Yeah, how do you prove 219 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 1: that you did every single one? To the to the 220 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:17,199 Speaker 1: lawmakers that made that rule. 221 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:22,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, it sounds like, to your point, a very complex process. Say, 222 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 2: this might be a little bit more simple, but I 223 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 2: think it's generally accepted that in the world of commodities 224 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:50,320 Speaker 2: there is a fraud problem, and I think having lots 225 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 2: of physical things that you're moving around poses an opportunity 226 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:58,319 Speaker 2: for criminals to take advantage of that process. We like 227 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 2: to talk about financial fraud and crime on this podcast, 228 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 2: and we saw a lot of instances recently of frauds 229 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:11,199 Speaker 2: happening in the commodity space, and specifically with one commodity 230 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 2: in particular, and that is Nickel. So we wanted to 231 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 2: know what is it about Nickel that makes it prone 232 00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 2: to fraud? And we brought on Anton Posner and Margo Brock, 233 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 2: the CEO and president respectively of Mercury Group, and they 234 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 2: came on and explained why there is so much financial 235 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 2: crime tied to Nickel. 236 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:34,559 Speaker 1: It just to be clear on Nickel, and I think 237 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 1: this is something Terry Duffy when we talk to him, 238 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,439 Speaker 1: he's like, there's something about nickel. It's that it's in bags, right, 239 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 1: Like some metal is like stacked, you see it, and 240 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:46,440 Speaker 1: so everything What would be an ideal form of auditing. 241 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 1: I can imagine like you open every bag, but like 242 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:50,559 Speaker 1: what is okay? 243 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 6: Yeah, again, it becomes that randomized audit, that randomized sampling, 244 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 6: and you do have to you have to look and 245 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 6: you have to go in and say, let's you know, 246 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:03,199 Speaker 6: it's all stacked in the warehouse, let's break some down, 247 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 6: let's pull it out, and let's just at a minimum 248 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 6: open the top of the bags and look in. 249 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 7: Also is going to say two Nichol is a much 250 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 7: more higher value metal versus aluminum or zinc. So it's 251 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 7: like counterfeiting. If you're going to counterfeit bills, you can 252 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:23,880 Speaker 7: probably counterfeit if taking the time to do it, you're 253 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 7: going to be doing one hundred dollars bills, right, Rather 254 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 7: than focusing on counterfeiting dollar bills, right, Nickel. 255 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 6: So in bags high value, and there's really been two 256 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 6: different types of fraud on it, and one is the 257 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 6: Indian one that traffic Wor is involved in is during shipment, 258 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 6: so by the time it lands where it's headed, the 259 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:50,199 Speaker 6: last containers are already afloat and everything, all the documents 260 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 6: are presented and everyone's been paid, so they haven't had 261 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 6: the opportunity to open doors on that very first container 262 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 6: that's shipped to even look and find their fraud. 263 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 2: So that fraud you have to. 264 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:05,599 Speaker 6: Really concentrate on combating at load. And then there's the 265 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 6: fraud of the rocks that were in the nickel bags, 266 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:11,680 Speaker 6: and that was in warehouse for years and years, but 267 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 6: again nobody, nobody opened up the bags there. So there's 268 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:18,559 Speaker 6: you know, like Anton said, it's a system as old 269 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 6: as time, and there's so many points within that system 270 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 6: where fraud can happen and theft happens, and the opportunities 271 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:25,440 Speaker 6: present themselves. 272 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:29,480 Speaker 1: To your point, Tracy introducing that, you know, I think 273 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 1: one thing with commodities too, and something we talked about 274 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 1: with Javier Blass, like it really does feel like the 275 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 1: Last Wild West part. Yes, fine, it I mean I 276 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 1: guess crypto kind of too. Also also a place where 277 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 1: there's been some fraud I've heard, but any you know, 278 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: it feels like, you know, a rock is a rock 279 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 1: in a way that in a way that a digital 280 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 1: claim to a company's cash flow is just much more 281 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: easier to track. 282 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 2: There's something almost pleasingly old fashioned about someone like taking 283 00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 2: a bag of rocks and painting them and then putting 284 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 2: them back in the bag and tricking auditors that way. 285 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 2: It's kind of it's satisfying in its simplicity, and. 286 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 1: It still works in twenty twenty three because people still 287 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 1: need bags of nickel and they can't check every bag. 288 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 1: All right, let's pivot a little bit. So obviously, you know, 289 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:16,680 Speaker 1: we talk about finance of all different swords. We talk 290 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 1: about real estate a lot on the show. One area 291 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:23,080 Speaker 1: that we haven't we've started talking about it more, but 292 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 1: we want to do more on is insurance and just 293 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 1: the explosion that a lot of real estate developers have 294 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 1: seen in their insurance costs over the last year. Often 295 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 1: a lot of it related to climate, but other factors 296 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 1: also the law. Take a listen to David O'Reilly. He's 297 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: the CEO of Howard Hughes, major real estate developer, with 298 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 1: some shocking statistics about the price of insurance. 299 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 8: Rates have taken off over the past year at ways 300 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 8: that we've never experienced, and I've never seen in twenty years, 301 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 8: and I'm told there's a lot of reasons for that. Yeah, 302 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 8: the reinsurance market is drying up. People are reluctant to 303 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 8: take risk, have been more and more natural disasters, making 304 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:07,240 Speaker 8: it harder and harder to price insurance appropriately, and there's 305 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 8: just fewer and fewer risk takers on the other side 306 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:12,640 Speaker 8: of the table to meet the demand of folks that 307 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 8: need insurance on this side of the table. 308 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 1: When you say rates are taking off like the way 309 00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 1: you've never seen, can you like put some numbers behind 310 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 1: it in terms of just like how different, how crazy 311 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 1: is the market or the movement the rate of change 312 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 1: in the market in twenty twenty three versus a period 313 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 1: that it might be. 314 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 8: Most risk managers would define insurance markets as either hardening 315 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 8: or softening okay, worse or getting better. 316 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 9: Okay. 317 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 8: Every year they always tell me it's hardening, okay, and 318 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 8: I say, one of these days it's going to soften, 319 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 8: and sometimes it'll soften, but they always manage my expectations 320 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 8: by saying it's hardening. Okay, So this year they said 321 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 8: it's hardening, and I kind of rolled my eyes and 322 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 8: shrugged and said, okay, here we go again, and we'll suck. 323 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 8: You know, we'll take it. We'll take a three to 324 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 8: five percent increase. 325 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 9: Yeah, it'll be all right. 326 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 8: And we came back with twenty five percent. Oh wait, 327 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 8: maybe it's forty percent. And then some of our peers 328 00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 8: and some of those that I've talked to in the 329 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 8: industry have seen a fifty percent And it's just there's 330 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 8: not as much availability as there used to be, and 331 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 8: then therefore certain pieces of the insurance stack gets more 332 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 8: expensive for a company like Howard to use. With six 333 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 8: billion of total insurable value. We do what's called the 334 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 8: shared and layer program like most people do, which is 335 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 8: think of a CMBs loan or an ABS loan, where 336 00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 8: you take the whole loan and you slice it by risk, 337 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:26,199 Speaker 8: and then you have this tetris like grid and you 338 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 8: fill it up with insurers. Those that want to take 339 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,160 Speaker 8: the most risk at the top get the highest rate, 340 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 8: and then all of a sudden, at the end of 341 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 8: the year, when you go to get your policy there's 342 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:37,920 Speaker 8: a big gap in the middle, or you can't fill 343 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 8: a couple of layers, and then the cost of filling 344 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:44,399 Speaker 8: those incremental layers are so pricey that it impacts the 345 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:48,439 Speaker 8: pricing of every layer around it. And it's just that 346 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,880 Speaker 8: there's not enough supply to meet the demand. 347 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 2: So the insurance conversation is interesting on so many levels. 348 00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 2: So not only are rates increasing, so the costs are 349 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:04,920 Speaker 2: being passed on, making real estate more expensive for normal people, 350 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 2: but there's also the pricing of financial risk and event risk, 351 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 2: So how do you actually put a number on something 352 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,600 Speaker 2: like a flood or a hurricane. That is always fascinating. 353 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 2: There's the distribution of risk, which David was talking about, 354 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 2: the idea that okay, you can sell some tranches of risk. 355 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 2: There's certain demand for like the lowest level of risk 356 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:27,719 Speaker 2: or the highest level of risk, but sometimes the in 357 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:31,919 Speaker 2: between spaces are becoming more difficult. And then there's also 358 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,159 Speaker 2: this big question which I think Joe, you and I 359 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 2: have spoken about this before, but in a world where 360 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:42,159 Speaker 2: one off events are happening more often, where stuff in 361 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:45,200 Speaker 2: general is just perceived to be riskier than it was previously, 362 00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:49,919 Speaker 2: the insurance companies kind of become the arbiters of accepted 363 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:54,440 Speaker 2: behavior and normality. They're the ones kind of putting standards 364 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 2: in place by deciding whether or not they're going to 365 00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:01,879 Speaker 2: ensure those particular practices. And I just that completely fascinating, totally. 366 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:02,119 Speaker 3: You know. 367 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 1: The other thing that's interesting is we always talk about 368 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:09,119 Speaker 1: financial conditions and financial conditions tightening, loosening and higher rates 369 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 1: and higher spreads, et cetera. But you never really hear 370 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:16,919 Speaker 1: insurance rates folded into the financial conditions convo. But you 371 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:20,200 Speaker 1: just have to assume that when insurance prices for certain 372 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:23,320 Speaker 1: projects jump thirty forty fifty percent in a year, they're 373 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:25,440 Speaker 1: just going to be many things that don't pencil out. 374 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:28,040 Speaker 1: So it feels to me like that's probably a massive 375 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 1: tightening at least in twenty twenty three, or parts of 376 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three and twenty twenty two, tightening of financial 377 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:36,439 Speaker 1: conditions that perhaps wasn't captured in a lot of the metrics. 378 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point, and Bloomberg does have a 379 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 2: financial conditions index, so maybe we should suggest that they 380 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 2: incorporate it somehow. Anyway, Speaking of costs going up in 381 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 2: real estate, another surprising thing that happened this year at 382 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 2: least to many people who perhaps didn't listen to all 383 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,679 Speaker 2: blots in twenty twenty two is that the housing market 384 00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,439 Speaker 2: was pretty resilient. There are lots of people out there 385 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:03,360 Speaker 2: who thought that mortgage rates going up spectacularly meant that 386 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 2: housing prices would inevitably have to go down. But as 387 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:11,120 Speaker 2: our guest Jim Egan, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, has 388 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 2: pointed out repeatedly, that is not necessarily the case. Instead, 389 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 2: we've seen, you know, basically a freeze in the market. 390 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 2: Jim in general is full of interesting facts and figures 391 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 2: and stats about US real estate, and whenever he comes 392 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 2: on the show, he sort of throws out all these 393 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:33,679 Speaker 2: really interesting numbers. One of the most interesting numbers he 394 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,639 Speaker 2: told us this year has to do with the number 395 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,360 Speaker 2: of houses currently owned by baby boomers. 396 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,560 Speaker 10: I think the reason that we haven't been as focused 397 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 10: on older age cohorts as an industry is because historically 398 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 10: they just haven't been that large. The boomer generation moving 399 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:55,359 Speaker 10: into this age cohort is really driving kind of differentiated 400 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 10: housing dynamics. If we look at the percentage of homes 401 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 10: that are owned by people over sixty five from nineteen 402 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 10: eighty to twenty twelve, it is a very consistent twenty 403 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 10: five percent. The oscillations are really small. As I mentioned 404 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 10: a little bit earlier, it's gone up to thirty three 405 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 10: percent from twenty twelve to today. Given some of the 406 00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:18,359 Speaker 10: demographic forecasts from our economics team, it's only going to 407 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 10: move higher right now. And that trend has been aging 408 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 10: in place. While older homeowners do move from time to time, 409 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 10: when they do move, they tend to move to very 410 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 10: similar places Florida, Arizona, South Carolina. For the most part, 411 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:36,320 Speaker 10: they do stay where they are. They age in place. 412 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 10: They are the least mobile age cohort in our population. 413 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 10: I talked about listings being at the lowest levels we've 414 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 10: seen in forty years. The truth is in twenty eighteen 415 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 10: twenty nineteen they were close to forty year lows. And 416 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,920 Speaker 10: one of the reasons behind that, we think, is this 417 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:54,760 Speaker 10: aging boomer population. What share of housing they're taking up 418 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 10: Now from twenty twenty to now, it has dramatically fallen 419 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 10: in and very much you set those lows. But this 420 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 10: was a conversation when we're having pre. 421 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: COVID, So Tracy, you know, one thing that just sort 422 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,160 Speaker 1: of strikes me in general, there is that a there's 423 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:15,880 Speaker 1: no imminent relief coming from the housing market for demographic reasons. 424 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,639 Speaker 1: And also like it just feels like many things are 425 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 1: becoming kind of less cyclical about the economy, whether it's 426 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,119 Speaker 1: real estate because a bunch of people are just in 427 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:28,199 Speaker 1: their homes, not exposed to raids, government spending on a 428 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 1: domestic investment, et cetera. Like a big story feels to 429 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 1: me there are just many slow moving trains that are 430 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:36,719 Speaker 1: not going to be affected by the short term ups 431 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:37,120 Speaker 1: and downs. 432 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a really good way of putting it. There's 433 00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:43,160 Speaker 2: also the inequality to this point, the inequality issue, right, 434 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:45,920 Speaker 2: any baby boomer who owns a house at this point 435 00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,399 Speaker 2: is probably mortgage free, and they've seen the value of 436 00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,439 Speaker 2: their houses go up. Maybe they're even using some of 437 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 2: those profits to like buy additional houses, vacation homes, rental homes, whatever. 438 00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:01,119 Speaker 2: It's a very two track housing at the moment where 439 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:05,000 Speaker 2: the people who don't have houses yet, obviously, the affordability 440 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:09,200 Speaker 2: statistics just keep getting worse and worse. And meanwhile, anyone 441 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 2: who's lucky enough to have bought a home before interest 442 00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 2: rates went up spectacularly is probably doing reasonably well. 443 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 3: All right. 444 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 1: So one way in theory to satisfy more demand for housing. 445 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 1: It was a big topic and the media and the 446 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:27,120 Speaker 1: industry is office to residential conversions, which sound very nice 447 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 1: because we know there's a lot of empty office space, 448 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: there's demand for housing, so why can't you just turn 449 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 1: the offices into apartments? And so there has been some 450 00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,880 Speaker 1: of that, but it's very challenging. And our guests here, 451 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,440 Speaker 1: Joey Khalily, managing director at the Van Barton Group, described 452 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,439 Speaker 1: to us why sometimes to do it, you just have 453 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,399 Speaker 1: to cut a big hole down the middle of a building. 454 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,399 Speaker 2: So I think one of your famous conversions is downtown 455 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,919 Speaker 2: one eighty Water Street, and you solve that depth problem 456 00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:57,359 Speaker 2: by basically creating a sort of like inner atrium courtyard. 457 00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 9: Is that right? 458 00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:00,680 Speaker 11: Yeah, we ended up cutting a thirty foot forty foot 459 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,480 Speaker 11: hole in the center of the building. Wow, twenty something 460 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 11: stories went all the way and that created a courtyard 461 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 11: essentially for light and air to come down on the inside. 462 00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,080 Speaker 11: And then there were studios and two or three bedrooms 463 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,159 Speaker 11: that had their bedrooms up against that. 464 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 1: What was it that made that plausible? 465 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:19,399 Speaker 12: So? 466 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 1: Okay, so you see it's called the floor plate. Is 467 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,920 Speaker 1: the term and this is like sort of yeah, okay, so. 468 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,159 Speaker 11: You if we're on the sixth floor or second floor 469 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 11: of a building, Yeah, that's the floor plate. 470 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 1: The horizontal slice of the building. So this what it 471 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,800 Speaker 1: was One eighty Water Street. Okay, so one eighty Water 472 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 1: Street in its previous version did not have like a 473 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,639 Speaker 1: suitable floor plate, but you understood the that there was 474 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,400 Speaker 1: an opportunity to cut a hole in. 475 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,360 Speaker 11: It, correct it it had a suitable floor plate at 476 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 11: one point in time for office use, right right, For 477 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,879 Speaker 11: residential it did not, And evaluating that, yeah, came up 478 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,520 Speaker 11: with the plan of cutting that hole in the center. 479 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 1: Can you just talk a little bit more about that 480 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,240 Speaker 1: hole cutting, Like how did you sort of righte recognize that, Yes, 481 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:06,400 Speaker 1: it's only it's currently only capable for offices, but actually 482 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 1: we can make the math work if we cut a 483 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 1: giant hole down the center of a building. Talk a 484 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:11,840 Speaker 1: little bit about that evaluation. 485 00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 11: So with with a lot of things, just about everything 486 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:19,200 Speaker 11: is possible, but it would cost a lot of money. Yeah, 487 00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 11: so you have to valuate the structural modifications that it 488 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 11: would take to create that and ultimately what you're going 489 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:28,880 Speaker 11: to do with that building at the end of the day. Yeah, 490 00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,520 Speaker 11: create the residence is how much money you're going to 491 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,399 Speaker 11: get on the rent and then eventually sell that building 492 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:37,919 Speaker 11: one day. And so when you evaluate that, especially in 493 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:41,880 Speaker 11: that courtyard area, what's the spacing of the column days 494 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 11: from column to column and does it allow for enough 495 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 11: space to be able to cut that in without really 496 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:52,360 Speaker 11: cutting out any other structural steel columns or our supports, 497 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 11: which when we cut that out, we still had to 498 00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 11: reinforce the rest of the structure and and do quite. 499 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,960 Speaker 2: A bit of that, you know, joe I think about 500 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 2: a month after we released that episode, New York did 501 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:12,440 Speaker 2: unveil a new plan to make office to residential conversions 502 00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,080 Speaker 2: a little bit easier, and I think a major part 503 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:19,560 Speaker 2: of that was maybe simplifying some zoning processes. But to 504 00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 2: Joey's point, it's not just the zoning, it's not just 505 00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:27,360 Speaker 2: the regulation. There are these physical impediments to converting these 506 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:31,080 Speaker 2: giant office buildings into apartments that people are going to 507 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:33,240 Speaker 2: see as desirable and livable. 508 00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:35,680 Speaker 1: We got to take up Joey. He made an offer 509 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: us to do like a field trip to the latest 510 00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:40,200 Speaker 1: building they're working on. So for twenty twenty four, let's 511 00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:41,080 Speaker 1: remember to take them up. 512 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 4: On it. 513 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, let's do that. I look good in a hard hat. 514 00:26:44,160 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 2: We must do that, all right? Coming up next this 515 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 2: This is one of my favorite episodes of the year, 516 00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,960 Speaker 2: mostly because I think it was maybe a cathartic experience 517 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 2: for both of us, seeing as we were both blocked 518 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,959 Speaker 2: on social media by this particular guest. I am, of 519 00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:21,560 Speaker 2: course talking about Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of many 520 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:27,160 Speaker 2: books including Black Swan, a prolific online presence, and someone 521 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 2: who is known for blocking other people online, and in 522 00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,440 Speaker 2: this episode we finally got a chance to ask him 523 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,240 Speaker 2: how he decides who to block, and his answer was 524 00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:39,560 Speaker 2: very surprising. 525 00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:40,520 Speaker 1: Why did you. 526 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,000 Speaker 2: Block me and Joe and why have we been unblocked? 527 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:44,360 Speaker 9: Uh? 528 00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,919 Speaker 12: I think a largely a lot of my blocking is 529 00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:52,240 Speaker 12: not done by me the boss. You had to understand 530 00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:57,560 Speaker 12: that I got besieged by finance people, and you know 531 00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:02,520 Speaker 12: that time don't get along general finance ground and by 532 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:07,439 Speaker 12: the crypto people, particularly after the positions that are not 533 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,439 Speaker 12: very favorable to the crypto people. So you do block 534 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,919 Speaker 12: and clean up my feet, just block things. And I 535 00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,439 Speaker 12: had someone who happened to be in Ukraine at the 536 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:21,000 Speaker 12: time helping me. You know, do automatic blocking. I believe, 537 00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:23,199 Speaker 12: believe it or not, the best thing to do with 538 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:26,920 Speaker 12: your Twitter feed is block groups because then then things 539 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:28,320 Speaker 12: become cleaned. 540 00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:30,400 Speaker 2: Oh I believe it for sure. 541 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,639 Speaker 12: So so unfortunately that you guys. But then I up 542 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,400 Speaker 12: block people when I realized went too far. 543 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:38,400 Speaker 1: Thank you. 544 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,840 Speaker 12: So the first reaction is what I called the gativa. 545 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,280 Speaker 12: It's like you close the door and then you let 546 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:48,880 Speaker 12: in those who think that were excluded or will not 547 00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:50,040 Speaker 12: degrade the feed. 548 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 1: That's a great answer. 549 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 12: Does have anything to do with with disagreements. It has 550 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 12: to do with the styles, right then. But I think 551 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 12: the people that that annoy the most other liticks because 552 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 12: of divers conversation and lip pickers are I mean trolls. 553 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 12: You can see in the trolls littickers, people don't notice 554 00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,480 Speaker 12: the liitpickers. 555 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:16,800 Speaker 2: Joe knows that one of the things I hate online 556 00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:20,320 Speaker 2: is people who sort of pick out like the tiniest, 557 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:24,040 Speaker 2: tiniest thing in a tweet, like why didn't you label 558 00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 2: your ex access properly? And things like that. It drives 559 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:30,760 Speaker 2: me crazy. So Teleb and I share that opinion about nitpickers, 560 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:32,959 Speaker 2: and I'm glad to say Joe that at the end 561 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:36,160 Speaker 2: of twenty twenty three. We remain both of us, I think, 562 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:37,840 Speaker 2: unblocked by TELEB. 563 00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,880 Speaker 1: But it is funny to me, Tracy that you implicitly 564 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,280 Speaker 1: by having been blocked at one point, did get lumped 565 00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,680 Speaker 1: in with crypto trolls and nitpickers in the eyes of 566 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,680 Speaker 1: Teleb or whoever he does, is blocking for him. 567 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 2: It's true. 568 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 1: Moving on, obviously, major topic and are sort of major 569 00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:58,640 Speaker 1: source of interest is what is going on with the 570 00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:02,560 Speaker 1: Chinese economy. How do we understand the Chinese policy making 571 00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,160 Speaker 1: choices better. There's so much more to do on it, 572 00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,160 Speaker 1: but we did do a few episodes, including this episode 573 00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:12,720 Speaker 1: with a songwind Zoelou from the Council on Foreign Relations, 574 00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:16,120 Speaker 1: where she talked a little bit about the story, and 575 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:19,920 Speaker 1: Tracy loves the story of the Idiot sunflower seed seller 576 00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,400 Speaker 1: and what it says about sort of early early market 577 00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:26,720 Speaker 1: reforms under former Chinese premieer doing showpeg. 578 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 9: This rich person apparently he was one of the if 579 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,560 Speaker 9: not the earliest. He was one of the earliest Chinese 580 00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:37,440 Speaker 9: entrepreneur to make one hundred million UM. He was the 581 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:41,440 Speaker 9: founder of this sunflower seed company called Shads Goads or 582 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:47,680 Speaker 9: Idiot sunflower Seed. When Idiot sunflower seeds, yes or fo 583 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:55,040 Speaker 9: sunflower seeds, shats gods and name. So at that time, 584 00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:58,360 Speaker 9: out of jealousy or some or other reasons, there were 585 00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:01,520 Speaker 9: some voices among China the people or policy makers to say, 586 00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:04,240 Speaker 9: this guy becomes so rich, we need to take him down. 587 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:08,560 Speaker 9: And in his speech don't some things that I'm aware of, 588 00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:12,960 Speaker 9: these kind of recommendations, but we cannot do that. He 589 00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:17,520 Speaker 9: stracked it down. And the reason he also explained why 590 00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:21,280 Speaker 9: he the party cannot do that. He said, if we 591 00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 9: punished him, that would send a terrible signal. It would 592 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:30,800 Speaker 9: make people think that we changed our policy of reform 593 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,040 Speaker 9: and open up. And there are so many instances that 594 00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:37,000 Speaker 9: we can do things and make people think we changed 595 00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:41,440 Speaker 9: our policies, and we cannot do that. So from his perspective, 596 00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:44,640 Speaker 9: you know, the part, the big risk, as he charakrized, 597 00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:48,360 Speaker 9: it is to make mistakes to make people think that 598 00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:49,560 Speaker 9: we changed our policy. 599 00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:55,080 Speaker 2: Joe's right. I love that story, idiot. Sunflower Seeds is 600 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,719 Speaker 2: my new favorite company, not just for the name, but 601 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:04,200 Speaker 2: also because it ends up really contrasting differences in policy 602 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:08,720 Speaker 2: between Dung Chao Ping and maybe she Shinping nowadays, where 603 00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:12,520 Speaker 2: he's you know, instituted a whole bunch of crackdowns on 604 00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,840 Speaker 2: private industry, and he has kicked off this conversation in 605 00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:19,640 Speaker 2: China about well, is it worth even trying anymore? If 606 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:21,520 Speaker 2: you know you could become a billionaire and like the 607 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:23,920 Speaker 2: next day you're in trouble with the government and it 608 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,280 Speaker 2: all comes crashing down. It's still a very relevant anecdote, 609 00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,920 Speaker 2: even though it comes to us from the past. I 610 00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 2: really want to do an episode just on this company. 611 00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:37,240 Speaker 1: I've you know, I've seen some translations, so obviously she said, 612 00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:40,320 Speaker 1: it's also been it's called fool sunflower seeds. I've seen 613 00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:44,600 Speaker 1: translations that called it simpletons sunflower seeds. I really but 614 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:47,800 Speaker 1: idiot's sunflower seeds. I hope that's the best one. 615 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I suspect it. It can be all 616 00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:52,880 Speaker 2: of those things at once. But if you're wondering why 617 00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:55,840 Speaker 2: it was called that, my understanding is it was kind 618 00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,800 Speaker 2: of like a little bit like crazy Eddie in that 619 00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,200 Speaker 2: the idea is, like, our prices for sunflower seeds are 620 00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:06,280 Speaker 2: so stupidly or idiotically low. What are we thinking by 621 00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:09,000 Speaker 2: our sunflower seeds? That was kind of the origins of it. 622 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:12,480 Speaker 2: I love it so if you've stayed with us for 623 00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:16,040 Speaker 2: this long, then you've already gotten a preview of our 624 00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:20,640 Speaker 2: tenth and final surprising thing we learned this year. It is, 625 00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,880 Speaker 2: of course, the Jones Act and its impact on the 626 00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:27,600 Speaker 2: offshore wind industry. We spoke with one of our colleagues 627 00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:32,680 Speaker 2: here at Bloomberg benef analyst Chelsea Jean Michelle, and even 628 00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 2: though we weren't necessarily expecting to encounter this one hundred 629 00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:40,280 Speaker 2: year old law, yet again, we just can't get away 630 00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,840 Speaker 2: from it. The Jones Act is with us everywhere, so 631 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:43,880 Speaker 2: here it is. 632 00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:48,040 Speaker 13: Yeah, so the US has essentially this law called the 633 00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,080 Speaker 13: Jones Act. I'm not sure you guys familiar. 634 00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:51,560 Speaker 5: Yes, we love it. 635 00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:52,640 Speaker 1: It always comes back. 636 00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:54,480 Speaker 2: It always comes back to the Jones Act. 637 00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:54,920 Speaker 9: No, we've done. 638 00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:56,520 Speaker 2: I've done a couple episodes. 639 00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:58,320 Speaker 1: Had no idea this is going to turn into a 640 00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,960 Speaker 1: Jones Act episode. I'm really excited. 641 00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,880 Speaker 13: So I have my own personal feelings about it. But 642 00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:05,560 Speaker 13: that aside, I've noticed. 643 00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:07,640 Speaker 1: By the way, like on social media, that's one of 644 00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,080 Speaker 1: the most hot button topics that you can talk about. 645 00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,399 Speaker 1: So you never never say anything about the Jones Act 646 00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,920 Speaker 1: online whatever. People have a really strong opinion. Okay, sorry, worries. 647 00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:20,280 Speaker 13: I mean, it's a hot button topic. So essentially, basically, 648 00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:24,160 Speaker 13: if you are traveling between two points in the US, 649 00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:27,719 Speaker 13: then that ship has to be US built, US crewed, 650 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:31,239 Speaker 13: US flagged, And what that means for offshore wind is 651 00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:34,160 Speaker 13: that that offshore wind farm counts as a point. And 652 00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:39,040 Speaker 13: so the US has you know, I mentioned seven turbines 653 00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 13: currently installed, two projects currently under construction. But what happens is, 654 00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,080 Speaker 13: because of the Jones Act, you either have to have 655 00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:51,400 Speaker 13: a Jones Act compliant vessel that can do that transportation. 656 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,279 Speaker 13: That doesn't exist in the US right now. Currently, there's 657 00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:57,720 Speaker 13: only one wind turbine installation vessel that Dominion is building 658 00:34:57,800 --> 00:34:58,200 Speaker 13: right now. 659 00:34:58,680 --> 00:34:59,680 Speaker 2: I'm getting dredging. 660 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,239 Speaker 1: Yeah, oh my god, this is so amazing. It all 661 00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:03,240 Speaker 1: comes full circle. 662 00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:07,600 Speaker 13: So, yeah, there's only one vessel currently under construction right now, 663 00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:09,799 Speaker 13: and that's not going to be ready until a few 664 00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:11,960 Speaker 13: years from now, and Dominion's planning on using that on 665 00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,640 Speaker 13: their two point six giga Coastal Virginia offshore wind projects, 666 00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:16,359 Speaker 13: sets set to be the largest in the US when 667 00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:18,480 Speaker 13: it commissions, one of the largest in the world, which 668 00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,000 Speaker 13: is great for them, but for other projects. 669 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:22,520 Speaker 8: Orstead was actually. 670 00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,720 Speaker 13: Hoping to use this for their Sunrise Wind and Revolution 671 00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,200 Speaker 13: Wind projects. But now that the vessel has been delayed, 672 00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:30,600 Speaker 13: they are no longer able to use that Jones Act 673 00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,560 Speaker 13: compliant winterbine installation vessel. So another thing that you can 674 00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:37,160 Speaker 13: consider doing is using a European wind turbine installation vessel 675 00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:39,680 Speaker 13: and then using a kind of like feeder barge method. 676 00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:41,399 Speaker 13: And so this is what a lot of US offsho 677 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,200 Speaker 13: wind projects are hoping to do. Essentially, the feeder barges 678 00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:47,279 Speaker 13: are Jones Act compliant and you feed in the components 679 00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,879 Speaker 13: to the European vessel that stays at the offshore wind site. 680 00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:53,920 Speaker 13: So the Jones Act has essentially created a situation where 681 00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:59,040 Speaker 13: so many vessels involved in the offshore wind installation process 682 00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:02,040 Speaker 13: need to be built here and right now there's only one. 683 00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:03,320 Speaker 13: So that's a huge constraint. 684 00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:06,120 Speaker 2: Joe, I dare you to tweet that the Jones Act 685 00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:09,399 Speaker 2: causes pollution and adds to the US's carbon load by 686 00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:10,920 Speaker 2: denying when energy. 687 00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,320 Speaker 1: I'll tweet it from my outlocked alta account that nobody 688 00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:19,120 Speaker 1: knows about. It's true. On my secret all Twitter account, 689 00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:21,759 Speaker 1: I tweet all the time about dredging and the Jones EG. 690 00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,279 Speaker 1: But I would never express my views publicly on the 691 00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:26,960 Speaker 1: main because it's just too too hot button of a topic. 692 00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:28,839 Speaker 2: Wait, I'm going to have to go look for your 693 00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,440 Speaker 2: all account now. I bet I can find it. 694 00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:35,000 Speaker 1: I briefly mentioned what it's called. Oh really, and then 695 00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:38,120 Speaker 1: I deleted the tweet that. So if you're looking at 696 00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:40,200 Speaker 1: that one moment, Oh okay. 697 00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:42,440 Speaker 2: Well, listeners, here's something I want to learn for twenty 698 00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:46,200 Speaker 2: twenty four. What Joe's alt account is on Twitter slash 699 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,200 Speaker 2: x Well. I have to say that was a really 700 00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:51,799 Speaker 2: fun list to put together. It kind of gave us 701 00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:55,080 Speaker 2: an opportunity to go over a lot of our episodes 702 00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:59,680 Speaker 2: for the year, revisit what we've learned, what's surprising. I 703 00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:03,200 Speaker 2: still cannot get over some of the nuggets in those stories. 704 00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:07,280 Speaker 2: Six seven hundred requirements for a piece of government software, 705 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:11,839 Speaker 2: idiot sunflower seeds, the Jones Act and wind, the communist 706 00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:14,080 Speaker 2: origins of euro dollars. There's so much in. 707 00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,799 Speaker 1: There, and I'm looking forward to all the fascinating things 708 00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:18,120 Speaker 1: we learned in twenty twenty four. 709 00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:20,239 Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, shall we leave it there. 710 00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:21,080 Speaker 1: Let's leave it there. 711 00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,480 Speaker 2: This has been another episode of the Authoughts podcast. I'm 712 00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,680 Speaker 2: Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway and. 713 00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:30,320 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. 714 00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:34,080 Speaker 1: Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Arman, dash O 715 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:37,920 Speaker 1: Bennett at Dashbot and Kelbrooks at Kelbrooks. Thank you to 716 00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:41,120 Speaker 1: our producer Moses onm. For more Oddlots content, go to 717 00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:43,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots, where we have a blog, 718 00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:47,080 Speaker 1: transcripts and a newsletter and you can chat about all 719 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:49,880 Speaker 1: these ten topics and more with fellow listeners in the 720 00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:54,000 Speaker 1: discord twenty four to seven discord dot ggen slash. 721 00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:56,880 Speaker 2: Outline And if you enjoy ad Lots, if you like 722 00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,239 Speaker 2: it when we compile these kind of lists, then please 723 00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:02,680 Speaker 2: leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. 724 00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:03,560 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening.