WEBVTT - The Ultimate Starting Pitcher Guide Part Two: Sleepers, Busts, and Must-Have Targets (Ep. 933) 0:00:05.240 --> 0:00:08.160 Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Bros. MLB. This is the 0:00:08.200 --> 0:00:11.520 Fantasy Baseball Podcast. Is Me, Joey p Joe, Pi Zipia, 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:14.880 and today we're gonna take a look at starting pictures. 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:17.079 That's right, the Ultimate Guide is back, but we're gonna 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.560 dig a little bit deeper with my good friend Nick 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:21.960 Pollock from Picture Lists. And who better to talk about 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:24.759 a deep list of pictures than literally a guy who 0:00:24.760 --> 0:00:27.280 does nothing all day but make lists of pictures. This 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:29.320 is what he does. And as you can see, he's 0:00:29.360 --> 0:00:32.199 also in transition. If you're watching on the YouTube channel, 0:00:32.320 --> 0:00:33.920 make sure you subscribe. We're trying to get to twenty 0:00:33.920 --> 0:00:36.280 five thousand, by the way, by opening day, that's our goal. 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:40.440 He is transitioning the bedroom office situation. There some living 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:44.360 arrangements changing for some wonderful reasons. But Nick Pollock, it's 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:46.280 like an episode of Property Brothers over. 0:00:46.240 --> 0:00:49.160 There right now, Oh my gosh, let's just not talk 0:00:49.200 --> 0:00:52.360 about that. I sound good though, I got the mica 0:00:52.440 --> 0:00:55.440 and I got some random things to make sure just 0:00:55.520 --> 0:00:58.200 for you, Joe, and I sound as good as I can. 0:00:58.240 --> 0:00:59.520 Thank you so much for having me though. This is 0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:02.040 the fun of the year where we spent all this 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:04.280 time for four or five months, just be like this 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:06.880 guy's right, this guy's right. And now we've got our 0:01:06.880 --> 0:01:08.800 flash cars. We've got a little bits of like, this 0:01:08.880 --> 0:01:10.800 is the thing that I care about with this guy 0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:13.039 or not. This is why we do it. This is great. 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:14.840 Now. Our plan today is we're gonna go through the 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:17.199 tiers thirty one through fifty. Then we're gonna do fifty 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:19.759 one through seventy, and then seventy one through one hundred. 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:22.520 Then outside the top one hundred, we've each got some 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:24.600 guys that we're gonna outline, but really we're gonna pick 0:01:24.640 --> 0:01:26.679 Nick's brain about a lot of these names here in 0:01:26.720 --> 0:01:28.560 these tiers that you should be targeting in your fantasy 0:01:28.640 --> 0:01:31.880 drafts upcoming. And I'm very happy because some of the 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:35.440 names that Nick put on his list are actually names 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:37.319 on my list too, So I feel really good about 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:40.120 It's nice when you know the guru agrees with you, 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:43.399 and sometimes we don't agree. That's what makes the fun shows. 0:01:43.600 --> 0:01:46.520 Sometimes we do agree, and it makes me feel warm 0:01:46.560 --> 0:01:47.840 and fuzzy when we do well. 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:51.360 Well, Joe, do you ever call yourself a Guruh? 0:01:51.480 --> 0:01:54.040 No? I don't like any of those guru experts. Things 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:56.520 like that I'm an I'm a host and an analyst. 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:56.960 That's what. 0:01:57.120 --> 0:01:59.320 Yeah, the guru is always for me, is always just 0:01:59.320 --> 0:02:01.000 like I feel like I need to have like droopy 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:04.240 clothing and I like earrings. 0:02:04.400 --> 0:02:06.400 Smell like Patrulli. It's like a whole thing. 0:02:06.720 --> 0:02:08.760 Yeah, in sense going and stuff, which is nothing wrong 0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:09.920 with that. There's a time and place for that. 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:11.919 I'll tell you what. Man who knows we've got that 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:13.640 new office going in. You could put a hookah in, 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:15.119 you can do a lot of things going in there. 0:02:15.320 --> 0:02:18.440 I could be options. But no, we're here to talk 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:20.840 about all these pictures. And I before I even begin, 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:24.200 I want to be very very clear. Is so difficult 0:02:24.280 --> 0:02:26.960 to do a ranking that works for everybody listening. You 0:02:26.960 --> 0:02:30.120 guys are in different leagues. You're in very shallow leagues. 0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:33.200 You're in ale onlys or drafting holds and fifteen teamers. 0:02:33.680 --> 0:02:36.200 And when I do my rankings, when I talk about guys, 0:02:36.639 --> 0:02:40.560 I'm very specific to one format, which is your general 0:02:40.639 --> 0:02:43.959 standard twelfth teamer, because thats what the majority of players 0:02:44.320 --> 0:02:47.840 play in. And I have a moment in my drafts 0:02:47.840 --> 0:02:52.600 that's around fifty five or so where I shift heavily 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:56.120 in what strategy you should be going for. So beginning 0:02:56.120 --> 0:02:57.880 in like thirty to fifty or so is going to 0:02:57.880 --> 0:03:00.400 be about, Hey, I want guys who I find cure, 0:03:00.440 --> 0:03:02.200 who I think that their floor is going to be 0:03:02.240 --> 0:03:04.560 still productive and I'm never going to drop them, and 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:06.880 then they have upside for more on top of being 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:08.920 like an SB three or so, it can hopefully be 0:03:08.960 --> 0:03:11.679 like an SB two SP one. And then after that 0:03:12.120 --> 0:03:15.240 it's all about hunting for as much upside I can 0:03:15.320 --> 0:03:19.600 decide on early in my draft because once you are 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:22.560 sorry not in my draft early in the season, because 0:03:22.639 --> 0:03:24.840 you should be taking advantage of the waiver wire. This 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:29.080 is the most plentiful waiver wire we've ever seen for 0:03:29.160 --> 0:03:32.320 starting pitchers. And instead of going for those boring guys 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:34.880 that like, yeah, sure the projections like it, that's fine 0:03:35.000 --> 0:03:37.640 for the entire year. To win a league, you don't 0:03:37.680 --> 0:03:40.200 want just value at that roster spot. You want to 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:42.480 beat it. You want to turn that SB seven into 0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:44.880 an SB four by the end of the year. And 0:03:44.920 --> 0:03:47.600 to do that you have to take risks, don't You 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:50.560 got to throw away projected innings and health concerns and 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:52.160 just be like, who is going to give me good 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:55.040 quality that I can figure out early my draft, and 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:57.880 that's around like fifty sixty or so of the starters 0:03:57.920 --> 0:03:59.760 off the board. So I just want to preface that 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:03.080 it's a great friend, because I've come on this show before, 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:07.200 Joe and I've gone into these ranking battles with this 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:10.760 and now it's fast and stuff, and that's just been 0:04:10.800 --> 0:04:14.280 thrown out the window. So let's get it straightched. 0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:15.560 I mean, you could look at it in the sense 0:04:15.560 --> 0:04:17.919 of like you've defeated all oncomers and now it's just 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:20.520 you here chatter with me. I mean, you can tell 0:04:20.520 --> 0:04:22.920 that to fast at least. Before we get going here, 0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:25.000 a quick bit of business, drop your comments below because 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:28.719 we have another giveaway here. If Fantasy Bros. MLB, somebody's 0:04:28.720 --> 0:04:32.200 gonna win assigned Billy Wagner Baseball. That's right, Hall of 0:04:32.240 --> 0:04:34.880 Famer now Billy Wagner Curtsey of our good friends at 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:36.560 Pristine Auction dot Com. All you have to do to 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:39.920 win subscribe to Fantasy Bros. MLB YouTube channel. That's pretty easy, 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:42.000 and right now drop a comment below on this or 0:04:42.000 --> 0:04:43.680 any video. That's it. That's all you gotta do, and 0:04:43.720 --> 0:04:45.560 we'll be announcing the winner right here on the channel. 0:04:45.720 --> 0:04:48.159 So make sure you turn thosezonifications so you never miss 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:50.400 a live stream, you never miss a podcast, you never 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:52.880 miss anything. Here Fantasy Bros MLB, and you might just 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:56.320 win assigned Billy Wagner Baseball. Pretty good way to start off, 0:04:56.360 --> 0:04:58.200 all right, So here we go. Let's talk about the 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:01.400 guys thirty one through fifty. Now, this range has some 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:03.360 names on there that I feel like have a lot 0:05:03.400 --> 0:05:05.520 of potential this year. You got the Roki Sazaki's at 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:08.240 thirty three. You've got Grayson Rodriguez at thirty five. Maybe 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:10.200 he's ready to finally be the mantle. It seems like 0:05:10.920 --> 0:05:13.239 that's what the Orioles are counting on when you let 0:05:13.400 --> 0:05:18.360 Gordman Burns leave, Hunter Brown terrible, April brilliant the rest 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:21.359 of his starts the rest of the year. You've also 0:05:21.440 --> 0:05:24.599 got some guys who kind of reclaimed their careers last year, 0:05:24.640 --> 0:05:27.520 guys like Jack Flaherty who bounced back. And then you've 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:30.000 got guys returning from injury like Sho Hael Tani is 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:33.200 just the pitcher. Shane mcclanahan's in this group, sandyel Conscios 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:37.520 in this group. So a really interesting composition thirty one 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:39.919 to fifty of names, all of which I feel like 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:42.440 at one time, either last year or in recent memory, 0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:44.719 have been very productive. So I want to start with 0:05:44.760 --> 0:05:46.359 one of your targets here, and it's a guy that 0:05:46.520 --> 0:05:48.719 I am targeting in this group a great deal. He's 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:51.320 coming in currently right now as a thirty seventh pitcher 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:54.520 off the consensus board of ADP at Fantasy Pros Justin Steele. 0:05:55.000 --> 0:05:57.000 This is a guy who has pitched like an ace. 0:05:58.080 --> 0:05:59.960 Even Aga is getting all the attentions still and ryfle 0:06:00.200 --> 0:06:02.600 so he was terrific last year. The Cubs are all in. 0:06:02.640 --> 0:06:04.320 I feel like they smell blood in the water in 0:06:04.320 --> 0:06:07.560 this division. Steele when he's been healthy has been terrific 0:06:07.640 --> 0:06:10.400 and it hasn't necessarily been arm injuries for Justin Steele. 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:12.919 That's also something I think people forget in that equation. 0:06:13.240 --> 0:06:15.359 So why is Justin Steele a target for you in 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:16.680 this range in twenty twenty five? 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:19.080 I think it's pretty clear to me. I have this 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:23.320 little mini tier of pitchers actually right around the around 0:06:23.440 --> 0:06:28.600 SB twenty that are your high volume pitchers who have 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:31.479 a good floor to them with I don't think they're 0:06:31.480 --> 0:06:33.640 going to hurt you in ratios at a zer or 0:06:33.800 --> 0:06:36.920 whip who also have a potential to go twenty five 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:40.680 percent strikeer rate or higher, and they aren't really known 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:43.919 as your thirty percent strikeout guys. Some people are afraid 0:06:43.960 --> 0:06:45.840 that they might turn to a twenty percent, twenty one percent. 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:48.800 They're maybe a little bit about the ratios. But I 0:06:48.839 --> 0:06:52.719 see Justin Steel as one of the more underrated pitchers 0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:56.599 this year. And to put this in perspective, last year 0:06:56.680 --> 0:06:59.479 opening Day, pulled the hamstring trying to fuel a ball 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:03.000 of the line and came back and needed some starts 0:07:03.000 --> 0:07:05.520 to really get back into his rhythm. And then at 0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:08.480 the end of the year they shut him down entering 0:07:08.520 --> 0:07:12.840 September because he had some elbow inflammation. No tears, no nothing. 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:16.120 It was so not a thing that he even started 0:07:16.160 --> 0:07:19.160 two weeks later, and the Cubs clearly should have just 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:21.640 shut him down if there was any actual problem. So 0:07:21.680 --> 0:07:23.440 if you take all the time in between them, it's 0:07:23.520 --> 0:07:26.600 four months May twenty seventh to August twenty seventh for 0:07:26.720 --> 0:07:30.360 Justin Steel two four five e arra one oh six 0:07:30.440 --> 0:07:34.360 whip with a twenty six percent strikeout rate, and this 0:07:34.400 --> 0:07:38.400 is over seventeen starts, one hundred and three innings. The 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:41.680 best stat though, is he has a thirty two percent 0:07:42.040 --> 0:07:44.720 ICR in that time, And I know ICR. What is 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:47.560 this stat? You know, hard hit rate, you know, barrel rate. 0:07:48.120 --> 0:07:52.320 ICR stands for ideal contact rate. Essentially takes all of 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:54.640 those and says, hey, there's also these players and burners. 0:07:54.640 --> 0:07:57.680 There's also the solid contact anything that's good for the hitter, 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:00.320 and as a pitcher, you want that to be really low. 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:02.720 What we normally see is like a forty percent rate 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:05.680 and above that is just like, oh man thirty two 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:07.920 is one of the best in the majors. 0:08:08.040 --> 0:08:08.440 Wow. 0:08:08.680 --> 0:08:13.320 So what Justin Steele does is he gets strikeouts, he 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:17.920 gets volume, he doesn't allow hits. He has a seven 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:23.080 percent walk rate in that time. This guy's amazing. He 0:08:23.120 --> 0:08:25.960 does it with a fastball that changes shape as he 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:29.600 wants to, says straight upstairs, and then uses cut action 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:32.560 against Righty's inside two different types of sliders, a harder 0:08:32.600 --> 0:08:35.280 one and the bigger one. He's really good at what 0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:39.160 he does. He's so stable in a fantastic floor. I 0:08:39.200 --> 0:08:40.880 want Justin Steel everywhere. It's easy. 0:08:41.400 --> 0:08:44.280 Yeah, me too. I love him as like a combo. 0:08:44.679 --> 0:08:46.839 When I'm starting my you know, rotations out there is 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:50.760 my number two and oftentimes I'm getting him there off 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:52.679 the charts. Also friend of the channel. He's been on 0:08:52.720 --> 0:08:55.160 our NFL show because he's a big fantasy football guy 0:08:55.440 --> 0:08:57.280 that's also a sport. Nick Pollock, I don't know if 0:08:57.320 --> 0:08:59.680 you're familiar. Yeah, I know I am, unfortunately, but he's 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:02.280 a big fan of the football podcast, so we had 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:04.040 him on for a mock draft. I'd love to get 0:09:04.080 --> 0:09:05.880 him on to talk about baseball. It's hard to get 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:07.760 the baseball guys on to talk about baseball. They want 0:09:07.800 --> 0:09:09.959 to come on to talk about football. It's a crazy 0:09:10.000 --> 0:09:12.200 world we live in. Another guy that's on your list 0:09:12.640 --> 0:09:14.920 is Jared Jones, who last year and when he started 0:09:14.920 --> 0:09:19.360 the season pretty strong beginning three five six ERA was 0:09:19.440 --> 0:09:22.640 first sixteen starts, ninety one innings, one point one zero 0:09:22.679 --> 0:09:26.360 whip good, strikeout rate nine point seven k's per nine. 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:28.959 Then in the second half a five eight seven ERA 0:09:29.280 --> 0:09:31.840 over six starts, only thirty innings. Obviously, we know how 0:09:31.840 --> 0:09:34.400 the season ended for him. So what is it that 0:09:34.440 --> 0:09:36.560 you're seeing out of Jared Jones when you're looking year 0:09:36.600 --> 0:09:38.600 over year that makes you encourage that he could return 0:09:38.640 --> 0:09:41.000 this investment, because in all fairness, he is going in 0:09:41.000 --> 0:09:44.200 that same range as some other guys that have been, 0:09:44.320 --> 0:09:45.920 you know, out there in the major leagues. Let's say 0:09:46.040 --> 0:09:48.440 the Kevin Gosman types. Right, Maybe a down year for Gosmin, 0:09:48.520 --> 0:09:50.400 but a guy that's done it a few times now. 0:09:50.640 --> 0:09:52.840 So why Jared Jones instead of a guy like Gosman 0:09:52.880 --> 0:09:53.440 as a target? 0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:57.679 Oh, Man, Gosman is your your bust candidate. I mean 0:09:57.960 --> 0:09:58.240 he has. 0:09:58.400 --> 0:10:00.240 I don't disagree with you. I'm just using him as 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:00.760 an example. 0:10:00.880 --> 0:10:01.840 Oh, I know, I know, I know. 0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:05.760 You know. This guy's proven Jones very tempting. 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:08.200 Well, this is what makes it so fun for Jared 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:10.560 Jones is that he's going around someone like Kevin Gosman 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:14.280 who doesn't have that kind of ceiling. I think that 0:10:14.400 --> 0:10:17.600 Jared Jones actually has at this point because Gosman is 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:20.720 still going to be a whip problem. Eurray is still 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:23.160 kind of in question and we saw his splitter get 0:10:23.160 --> 0:10:24.840 worse last year. Day were claiming by the end. But 0:10:25.240 --> 0:10:28.400 there's their question marks with Kevin Gosman. This way, while 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:30.920 we see Jared Jones and generally when he comes to 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:36.240 these explosive rookie seasons from guys I we see in 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:39.600 a sophomore year them add some of those elements that 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:41.760 we're looking for from them. Yes, there are times that 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:44.240 we see a great rookie year and it just never replicates. 0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:47.160 Usually that's because they don't have overall amazing stuff. They 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:50.560 really squeezed as much as they possibly could out of 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:52.840 what they offer. That's not the case with Jared Jones. 0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:55.280 He's a four singer slider guy. Both of them get 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:57.400 a lot of strikes. Both of them should earn a 0:10:57.440 --> 0:10:59.839 lot of whiffs. When we saw on the second half 0:10:59.840 --> 0:11:02.640 of last year we had a last strain from from 0:11:02.679 --> 0:11:04.920 Jared Jones, it messed him up a bit, it delayed him. 0:11:05.000 --> 0:11:06.520 You think he got a little more fatigued by the 0:11:06.559 --> 0:11:09.320 end too, and he just didn't get into that groove 0:11:09.360 --> 0:11:10.960 by the end. It was really kind of tough to 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:13.199 start him in September last year. But again it was 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:16.400 still really two pitch, and the biggest thing with Jared Jones, like, 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:18.560 oh hey man, you just got to add like something 0:11:18.600 --> 0:11:21.240 else that you can confidently throw for strikes in there 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:23.960 against left handers and against right handers. Jared Jones is 0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:26.520 doing that. He tried to hide it. Handed Mers had 0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:29.480 a fantastic interview with Jered Jones because she asked the 0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:32.840 right questions of oh I've got a secret pitch. He's like, oh, okay, 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:33.880 you don't have to tell me the pitch. But is 0:11:33.880 --> 0:11:35.600 it going to be against right handers or left handers? 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:37.240 And he said, oh, yeah, it's going to be used 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:40.079 against right handers maybe eventually left handers. Which is a sinker. 0:11:40.600 --> 0:11:43.560 We got you, Jared, and yeah, he threw five of 0:11:43.600 --> 0:11:46.920 them in his first ring start. That's perfect because what 0:11:47.000 --> 0:11:49.880 Jery Jones needs is batters to think, oh, this isn't 0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:51.560 the four seamer, this is actually the sinker. They need 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:54.240 to have that extra layer of hesitation. He will also 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:57.520 make it more efficient because sinker's earlier on accounts generally 0:11:57.679 --> 0:11:59.920 induced outs. If you're able to locate inside Jared Jones, 0:11:59.920 --> 0:12:01.679 I do trust would be able to do that a 0:12:01.800 --> 0:12:03.959 decent rate, and then you still have of course, it's 0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:06.920 amazing with heavy four seamer insider as well. He's working 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:10.200 on the curveball in the change up to go against lefties. 0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:11.800 I think Jerry Jones is just gonna be a better 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:15.280 version of himself in twenty twenty five. And we all 0:12:15.320 --> 0:12:17.160 saw the ceiling of this. Oh yeah, I think you're 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:18.880 going to have a lot more stability with it it's a 0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:23.240 second season with more stamina involved. After one year of 0:12:23.280 --> 0:12:25.560 doing this, Jared Jones was ready to explode. And I 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:27.079 think there's a lot of guys in this tier that 0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:29.880 are very boring and are like, Okay, you're drafting them 0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:32.280 as an S before and you might get an S before, 0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:35.760 and you don't want to leave your drafts with equal value. 0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:37.960 You know, if you leave your draft at two hundred 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:39.960 and sixty dollars value after spending two hundred and sixty, 0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:42.240 you're going to go sixth place in your league. You 0:12:42.360 --> 0:12:45.040 gotta actually try to win it. And Jared Jones is 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:48.880 the kind of guy that can absolutely overperform his value. Well, 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:51.000 you're never gonna drop him. You're not going to drop 0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:54.000 Jared Jones this year. So I feel really comfortable going 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:56.400 for Jared Jones' is my sp three s before I was. 0:12:56.760 --> 0:12:59.080 I remember last year on leading off, you know, he 0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:01.360 was on that run. I kept asking like do we 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:03.760 trade him? Like do we sell high? It was so difficult, 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:05.319 you know, and if he ended up selling high, you 0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:07.600 ended up doing really well because the second half obviously 0:13:07.679 --> 0:13:11.079 just didn't work out health guys, and obviously performance wise, 0:13:11.120 --> 0:13:13.920 but it was difficult because he was so dominant early on, 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:16.440 and you know sometimes that happens with the young pitchers 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:17.880 two and then you know they get a little bit 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:19.880 more exposed in the league. That happens, but also they 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:22.040 hit that innings. Well, there's a lot of those variables 0:13:22.040 --> 0:13:24.880 in that discussion. They're also you know, it's interesting too 0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:26.760 because you look at the organization. They got the bubble 0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:29.680 Chandler's coming through that organization too. And there's been even 0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:31.600 in the off season, there was some discussion of like, ooh, 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:34.160 is Jones a guy we might dangle out there. If 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:36.280 I was the Orioles, I'd be all over him. They 0:13:36.280 --> 0:13:39.840 have a glut of all these offensive prospects. The Pirates 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:42.000 could use some more offense. They've got a lot of 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:44.920 pitching coming through. To me, that's something that just makes 0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:46.200 it just makes a ton of sense. 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:48.760 Orioles getting on twenty teams that the Orioles should be 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:51.360 calling to trade. And how many guys. 0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:53.360 Can you play in the in the infield Baltimore. I 0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:55.080 I don't know, so. 0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:58.480 Let's go get Trevor Rodgers. It doesn't make sense to me. 0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:00.240 I'm so sorry, Orioles fans. We actually put on an 0:14:00.320 --> 0:14:05.560 article about Michael Lias back in November about how the 0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:07.800 ownership is. We have a very trusted source for this. 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:12.800 The ownership said, hey, I'm new, I have money, Please 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:14.640 spend the money. Michael Liais is like, nah, I'm good. 0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:17.000 I want to I want to be like the Rays. 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:19.440 No, it's that's crazy. I mean it just it makes 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:22.160 sense for the pirates too, like you want to support schemes. 0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:23.640 You want to support some of these guys that you're 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:24.960 going to have in the front of this rotation for 0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:25.560 years to come. 0:14:25.600 --> 0:14:27.880 But I know how crazy this seems. I would not 0:14:27.920 --> 0:14:30.720 be saying this if the source wasn't rock Steady. 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:32.960 So no, I know it doesn't incrust you. 0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:36.800 Guys have seen how the Oriols did not spend. Yeah, 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:39.000 off team Charlie Morton. 0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:41.920 There it is, guys, Charlie Morton. When pictures are the 0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:44.320 same age almost as me, it might be time to 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:46.600 be looking for a different strategy. I'm just saying, just saying, 0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:49.160 no offense to Charlie. Got mad respect for the guy. 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:52.000 But another guy in this tier before we move on 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:55.040 to the next one that you have pinpointed is Sandy 0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:56.600 en Contra. Who's a guy that I have in my 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:58.800 Homekeeper League. I picked up last year for a buck 0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.600 and just wanted to sit and wait, and I got 0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:04.000 him and McClanahan, I got him for two bucks and 0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.280 a Contra because people just forgot. You know, it's a 0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:08.920 keeper league, so people had just forgotten that they were 0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:11.720 floating around there, and I had them in the queue 0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:13.760 and I was just waiting till nobody else had any cash. 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:15.440 And then I was like, boom, boom boom, I'll get 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:17.080 to take these two guys. And then because I was 0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:19.440 in the rebuilding that league anyway, after being competitive for 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:22.920 about four years, and it's interesting you chose Al Contra 0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:26.520 over McClanahan. Mclanahan's more time to recover. I love both 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:29.200 these guys. A Contra to me was just so such 0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:31.840 a workhorse, consistent over two hundred innings twice something you 0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:34.600 never see a cy young in twenty twenty two. So 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:38.440 I'm curious why Ald Contara and then why Ald Katara 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:41.040 over a guy like McClanahan, just in terms of like 0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:42.160 how you cherry pick them. 0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:45.960 Sure, I'll actually start with the latter for a couple 0:15:45.920 --> 0:15:49.760 of reasons. One, I'll Contra, sorry, Al Kantara is cheaper, 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:53.960 he's going thirty picks later, which is just nicer. That 0:15:54.000 --> 0:15:55.600 means I don't have to feel like I need to 0:15:55.640 --> 0:16:01.000 get Al Kantara the same time as McClanahan. Also mcclanahan's 0:16:01.480 --> 0:16:06.200 workload I actually have less confidence in with the rays 0:16:06.760 --> 0:16:11.160 being the rays, and it's also different types of workload. 0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:15.840 So I with al Kantara, what's so interesting is he's 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:17.640 already throwing ninety nine. I mean, he was in the 0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:19.400 bullpen in September that got a site. But like you 0:16:19.480 --> 0:16:20.720 just came out on spring training. I was like, yeah, 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:23.440 I've got it, it's fine, We're all good. And Craig 0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:25.640 Mish came out with a report that there are no 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:32.200 restrictions for al Kantara this year, which is unreal, but okay, 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:36.480 all right then, okay. 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:38.240 Now miss a friend of mine for many many years. 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:39.960 I mean that's how I started this business, Craig and 0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:42.720 I doing shows together. So do you think that's also 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:46.000 sending that flag out to everybody else, like, hey, he's 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:49.160 got no restrictions, he's available, come get him, because where 0:16:49.240 --> 0:16:49.760 the Marrow. 0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:54.040 And I actually even proposed they do a reverse Gara crochet, which. 0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:56.520 Is they they actually limit him sometimes. 0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:59.480 In the first half of the season and then saying, great, 0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:02.920 trade Dune. He's all ready for you, you know, but 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:08.119 doesn't look like that. And I love this. It's also 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:12.840 in twelve teamers, the mindset should be the roster spot 0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:16.000 shouldn't necessarily be the player. And the reason for that 0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:18.480 is you have a guy like out Katara and you're saying, well, 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:20.480 if they're going to keep throwing him six seven innings, 0:17:20.480 --> 0:17:22.720 eventually he's not gonna be able to carry that workload 0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:26.080 in he will get hurt again. That is different than 0:17:26.680 --> 0:17:31.520 Sean mcclanahan's innings being overseen and stretched out over a 0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:34.040 full season at one point fifty because what sounds like 0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:37.119 to me is that if Kantara goes and let's say 0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:38.800 he goes one hundred and fifty innings, it's not because 0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:41.840 the Marlins limited him. It's because he's not pitching anymore 0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:45.399 in August or September. That means you get that roster 0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:47.240 spot back to fill it with something else off of 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:50.679 your waiver wire. So that is a huge value boost 0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:53.640 in my view. It's why actually I'm favoring Strider, It's 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:56.440 why I'm favoring de Gram more than what you'll see 0:17:56.440 --> 0:17:59.359 from a projection system, and it's maybe a little bit 0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:01.080 with glass because the dater is gonna be weird I 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:03.679 think with laws now. But so these guys are gonna 0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:06.359 go until they can't and then you get to replace it. 0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:09.080 That's a roster spot open and it should really be 0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:12.960 the replacement value projection plus their innings one, which is 0:18:13.000 --> 0:18:15.240