Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Bros. MLB. This is the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Podcast. Is Me, Joey p Joe, Pi Zipia,
Speaker 1: and today we're gonna take a look at starting pictures.
Speaker 1: That's right, the Ultimate Guide is back, but we're gonna
Speaker 1: dig a little bit deeper with my good friend Nick
Speaker 1: Pollock from Picture Lists. And who better to talk about
Speaker 1: a deep list of pictures than literally a guy who
Speaker 1: does nothing all day but make lists of pictures. This
Speaker 1: is what he does. And as you can see, he's
Speaker 1: also in transition. If you're watching on the YouTube channel,
Speaker 1: make sure you subscribe. We're trying to get to twenty
Speaker 1: five thousand, by the way, by opening day, that's our goal.
Speaker 1: He is transitioning the bedroom office situation. There some living
Speaker 1: arrangements changing for some wonderful reasons. But Nick Pollock, it's
Speaker 1: like an episode of Property Brothers over.
Speaker 2: There right now, Oh my gosh, let's just not talk
Speaker 2: about that. I sound good though, I got the mica
Speaker 2: and I got some random things to make sure just
Speaker 2: for you, Joe, and I sound as good as I can.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for having me though. This is
Speaker 2: the fun of the year where we spent all this
Speaker 2: time for four or five months, just be like this
Speaker 2: guy's right, this guy's right. And now we've got our
Speaker 2: flash cars. We've got a little bits of like, this
Speaker 2: is the thing that I care about with this guy
Speaker 2: or not. This is why we do it. This is great.
Speaker 1: Now. Our plan today is we're gonna go through the
Speaker 1: tiers thirty one through fifty. Then we're gonna do fifty
Speaker 1: one through seventy, and then seventy one through one hundred.
Speaker 1: Then outside the top one hundred, we've each got some
Speaker 1: guys that we're gonna outline, but really we're gonna pick
Speaker 1: Nick's brain about a lot of these names here in
Speaker 1: these tiers that you should be targeting in your fantasy
Speaker 1: drafts upcoming. And I'm very happy because some of the
Speaker 1: names that Nick put on his list are actually names
Speaker 1: on my list too, So I feel really good about
Speaker 1: It's nice when you know the guru agrees with you,
Speaker 1: and sometimes we don't agree. That's what makes the fun shows.
Speaker 1: Sometimes we do agree, and it makes me feel warm
Speaker 1: and fuzzy when we do well.
Speaker 2: Well, Joe, do you ever call yourself a Guruh?
Speaker 1: No? I don't like any of those guru experts. Things
Speaker 1: like that I'm an I'm a host and an analyst.
Speaker 1: That's what.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the guru is always for me, is always just
Speaker 2: like I feel like I need to have like droopy
Speaker 2: clothing and I like earrings.
Speaker 1: Smell like Patrulli. It's like a whole thing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, in sense going and stuff, which is nothing wrong
Speaker 2: with that. There's a time and place for that.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what. Man who knows we've got that
Speaker 1: new office going in. You could put a hookah in,
Speaker 1: you can do a lot of things going in there.
Speaker 2: I could be options. But no, we're here to talk
Speaker 2: about all these pictures. And I before I even begin,
Speaker 2: I want to be very very clear. Is so difficult
Speaker 2: to do a ranking that works for everybody listening. You
Speaker 2: guys are in different leagues. You're in very shallow leagues.
Speaker 2: You're in ale onlys or drafting holds and fifteen teamers.
Speaker 2: And when I do my rankings, when I talk about guys,
Speaker 2: I'm very specific to one format, which is your general
Speaker 2: standard twelfth teamer, because thats what the majority of players
Speaker 2: play in. And I have a moment in my drafts
Speaker 2: that's around fifty five or so where I shift heavily
Speaker 2: in what strategy you should be going for. So beginning
Speaker 2: in like thirty to fifty or so is going to
Speaker 2: be about, Hey, I want guys who I find cure,
Speaker 2: who I think that their floor is going to be
Speaker 2: still productive and I'm never going to drop them, and
Speaker 2: then they have upside for more on top of being
Speaker 2: like an SB three or so, it can hopefully be
Speaker 2: like an SB two SP one. And then after that
Speaker 2: it's all about hunting for as much upside I can
Speaker 2: decide on early in my draft because once you are
Speaker 2: sorry not in my draft early in the season, because
Speaker 2: you should be taking advantage of the waiver wire. This
Speaker 2: is the most plentiful waiver wire we've ever seen for
Speaker 2: starting pitchers. And instead of going for those boring guys
Speaker 2: that like, yeah, sure the projections like it, that's fine
Speaker 2: for the entire year. To win a league, you don't
Speaker 2: want just value at that roster spot. You want to
Speaker 2: beat it. You want to turn that SB seven into
Speaker 2: an SB four by the end of the year. And
Speaker 2: to do that you have to take risks, don't You
Speaker 2: got to throw away projected innings and health concerns and
Speaker 2: just be like, who is going to give me good
Speaker 2: quality that I can figure out early my draft, and
Speaker 2: that's around like fifty sixty or so of the starters
Speaker 2: off the board. So I just want to preface that
Speaker 2: it's a great friend, because I've come on this show before,
Speaker 2: Joe and I've gone into these ranking battles with this
Speaker 2: and now it's fast and stuff, and that's just been
Speaker 2: thrown out the window. So let's get it straightched.
Speaker 1: I mean, you could look at it in the sense
Speaker 1: of like you've defeated all oncomers and now it's just
Speaker 1: you here chatter with me. I mean, you can tell
Speaker 1: that to fast at least. Before we get going here,
Speaker 1: a quick bit of business, drop your comments below because
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Speaker 1: all right, So here we go. Let's talk about the
Speaker 1: guys thirty one through fifty. Now, this range has some
Speaker 1: names on there that I feel like have a lot
Speaker 1: of potential this year. You got the Roki Sazaki's at
Speaker 1: thirty three. You've got Grayson Rodriguez at thirty five. Maybe
Speaker 1: he's ready to finally be the mantle. It seems like
Speaker 1: that's what the Orioles are counting on when you let
Speaker 1: Gordman Burns leave, Hunter Brown terrible, April brilliant the rest
Speaker 1: of his starts the rest of the year. You've also
Speaker 1: got some guys who kind of reclaimed their careers last year,
Speaker 1: guys like Jack Flaherty who bounced back. And then you've
Speaker 1: got guys returning from injury like Sho Hael Tani is
Speaker 1: just the pitcher. Shane mcclanahan's in this group, sandyel Conscios
Speaker 1: in this group. So a really interesting composition thirty one
Speaker 1: to fifty of names, all of which I feel like
Speaker 1: at one time, either last year or in recent memory,
Speaker 1: have been very productive. So I want to start with
Speaker 1: one of your targets here, and it's a guy that
Speaker 1: I am targeting in this group a great deal. He's
Speaker 1: coming in currently right now as a thirty seventh pitcher
Speaker 1: off the consensus board of ADP at Fantasy Pros Justin Steele.
Speaker 1: This is a guy who has pitched like an ace.
Speaker 1: Even Aga is getting all the attentions still and ryfle
Speaker 1: so he was terrific last year. The Cubs are all in.
Speaker 1: I feel like they smell blood in the water in
Speaker 1: this division. Steele when he's been healthy has been terrific
Speaker 1: and it hasn't necessarily been arm injuries for Justin Steele.
Speaker 1: That's also something I think people forget in that equation.
Speaker 1: So why is Justin Steele a target for you in
Speaker 1: this range in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 2: I think it's pretty clear to me. I have this
Speaker 2: little mini tier of pitchers actually right around the around
Speaker 2: SB twenty that are your high volume pitchers who have
Speaker 2: a good floor to them with I don't think they're
Speaker 2: going to hurt you in ratios at a zer or
Speaker 2: whip who also have a potential to go twenty five
Speaker 2: percent strikeer rate or higher, and they aren't really known
Speaker 2: as your thirty percent strikeout guys. Some people are afraid
Speaker 2: that they might turn to a twenty percent, twenty one percent.
Speaker 2: They're maybe a little bit about the ratios. But I
Speaker 2: see Justin Steel as one of the more underrated pitchers
Speaker 2: this year. And to put this in perspective, last year
Speaker 2: opening Day, pulled the hamstring trying to fuel a ball
Speaker 2: of the line and came back and needed some starts
Speaker 2: to really get back into his rhythm. And then at
Speaker 2: the end of the year they shut him down entering
Speaker 2: September because he had some elbow inflammation. No tears, no nothing.
Speaker 2: It was so not a thing that he even started
Speaker 2: two weeks later, and the Cubs clearly should have just
Speaker 2: shut him down if there was any actual problem. So
Speaker 2: if you take all the time in between them, it's
Speaker 2: four months May twenty seventh to August twenty seventh for
Speaker 2: Justin Steel two four five e arra one oh six
Speaker 2: whip with a twenty six percent strikeout rate, and this
Speaker 2: is over seventeen starts, one hundred and three innings. The
Speaker 2: best stat though, is he has a thirty two percent
Speaker 2: ICR in that time, And I know ICR. What is
Speaker 2: this stat? You know, hard hit rate, you know, barrel rate.
Speaker 2: ICR stands for ideal contact rate. Essentially takes all of
Speaker 2: those and says, hey, there's also these players and burners.
Speaker 2: There's also the solid contact anything that's good for the hitter,
Speaker 2: and as a pitcher, you want that to be really low.
Speaker 2: What we normally see is like a forty percent rate
Speaker 2: and above that is just like, oh man thirty two
Speaker 2: is one of the best in the majors.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 2: So what Justin Steele does is he gets strikeouts, he
Speaker 2: gets volume, he doesn't allow hits. He has a seven
Speaker 2: percent walk rate in that time. This guy's amazing. He
Speaker 2: does it with a fastball that changes shape as he
Speaker 2: wants to, says straight upstairs, and then uses cut action
Speaker 2: against Righty's inside two different types of sliders, a harder
Speaker 2: one and the bigger one. He's really good at what
Speaker 2: he does. He's so stable in a fantastic floor. I
Speaker 2: want Justin Steel everywhere. It's easy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, me too. I love him as like a combo.
Speaker 1: When I'm starting my you know, rotations out there is
Speaker 1: my number two and oftentimes I'm getting him there off
Speaker 1: the charts. Also friend of the channel. He's been on
Speaker 1: our NFL show because he's a big fantasy football guy
Speaker 1: that's also a sport. Nick Pollock, I don't know if
Speaker 1: you're familiar. Yeah, I know I am, unfortunately, but he's
Speaker 1: a big fan of the football podcast, so we had
Speaker 1: him on for a mock draft. I'd love to get
Speaker 1: him on to talk about baseball. It's hard to get
Speaker 1: the baseball guys on to talk about baseball. They want
Speaker 1: to come on to talk about football. It's a crazy
Speaker 1: world we live in. Another guy that's on your list
Speaker 1: is Jared Jones, who last year and when he started
Speaker 1: the season pretty strong beginning three five six ERA was
Speaker 1: first sixteen starts, ninety one innings, one point one zero
Speaker 1: whip good, strikeout rate nine point seven k's per nine.
Speaker 1: Then in the second half a five eight seven ERA
Speaker 1: over six starts, only thirty innings. Obviously, we know how
Speaker 1: the season ended for him. So what is it that
Speaker 1: you're seeing out of Jared Jones when you're looking year
Speaker 1: over year that makes you encourage that he could return
Speaker 1: this investment, because in all fairness, he is going in
Speaker 1: that same range as some other guys that have been,
Speaker 1: you know, out there in the major leagues. Let's say
Speaker 1: the Kevin Gosman types. Right, Maybe a down year for Gosmin,
Speaker 1: but a guy that's done it a few times now.
Speaker 1: So why Jared Jones instead of a guy like Gosman
Speaker 1: as a target?
Speaker 2: Oh, Man, Gosman is your your bust candidate. I mean
Speaker 2: he has.
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with you. I'm just using him as
Speaker 1: an example.
Speaker 2: Oh, I know, I know, I know.
Speaker 1: You know. This guy's proven Jones very tempting.
Speaker 2: Well, this is what makes it so fun for Jared
Speaker 2: Jones is that he's going around someone like Kevin Gosman
Speaker 2: who doesn't have that kind of ceiling. I think that
Speaker 2: Jared Jones actually has at this point because Gosman is
Speaker 2: still going to be a whip problem. Eurray is still
Speaker 2: kind of in question and we saw his splitter get
Speaker 2: worse last year. Day were claiming by the end. But
Speaker 2: there's their question marks with Kevin Gosman. This way, while
Speaker 2: we see Jared Jones and generally when he comes to
Speaker 2: these explosive rookie seasons from guys I we see in
Speaker 2: a sophomore year them add some of those elements that
Speaker 2: we're looking for from them. Yes, there are times that
Speaker 2: we see a great rookie year and it just never replicates.
Speaker 2: Usually that's because they don't have overall amazing stuff. They
Speaker 2: really squeezed as much as they possibly could out of
Speaker 2: what they offer. That's not the case with Jared Jones.
Speaker 2: He's a four singer slider guy. Both of them get
Speaker 2: a lot of strikes. Both of them should earn a
Speaker 2: lot of whiffs. When we saw on the second half
Speaker 2: of last year we had a last strain from from
Speaker 2: Jared Jones, it messed him up a bit, it delayed him.
Speaker 2: You think he got a little more fatigued by the
Speaker 2: end too, and he just didn't get into that groove
Speaker 2: by the end. It was really kind of tough to
Speaker 2: start him in September last year. But again it was
Speaker 2: still really two pitch, and the biggest thing with Jared Jones, like,
Speaker 2: oh hey man, you just got to add like something
Speaker 2: else that you can confidently throw for strikes in there
Speaker 2: against left handers and against right handers. Jared Jones is
Speaker 2: doing that. He tried to hide it. Handed Mers had
Speaker 2: a fantastic interview with Jered Jones because she asked the
Speaker 2: right questions of oh I've got a secret pitch. He's like, oh, okay,
Speaker 2: you don't have to tell me the pitch. But is
Speaker 2: it going to be against right handers or left handers?
Speaker 2: And he said, oh, yeah, it's going to be used
Speaker 2: against right handers maybe eventually left handers. Which is a sinker.
Speaker 2: We got you, Jared, and yeah, he threw five of
Speaker 2: them in his first ring start. That's perfect because what
Speaker 2: Jery Jones needs is batters to think, oh, this isn't
Speaker 2: the four seamer, this is actually the sinker. They need
Speaker 2: to have that extra layer of hesitation. He will also
Speaker 2: make it more efficient because sinker's earlier on accounts generally
Speaker 2: induced outs. If you're able to locate inside Jared Jones,
Speaker 2: I do trust would be able to do that a
Speaker 2: decent rate, and then you still have of course, it's
Speaker 2: amazing with heavy four seamer insider as well. He's working
Speaker 2: on the curveball in the change up to go against lefties.
Speaker 2: I think Jerry Jones is just gonna be a better
Speaker 2: version of himself in twenty twenty five. And we all
Speaker 2: saw the ceiling of this. Oh yeah, I think you're
Speaker 2: going to have a lot more stability with it it's a
Speaker 2: second season with more stamina involved. After one year of
Speaker 2: doing this, Jared Jones was ready to explode. And I
Speaker 2: think there's a lot of guys in this tier that
Speaker 2: are very boring and are like, Okay, you're drafting them
Speaker 2: as an S before and you might get an S before,
Speaker 2: and you don't want to leave your drafts with equal value.
Speaker 2: You know, if you leave your draft at two hundred
Speaker 2: and sixty dollars value after spending two hundred and sixty,
Speaker 2: you're going to go sixth place in your league. You
Speaker 2: gotta actually try to win it. And Jared Jones is
Speaker 2: the kind of guy that can absolutely overperform his value. Well,
Speaker 2: you're never gonna drop him. You're not going to drop
Speaker 2: Jared Jones this year. So I feel really comfortable going
Speaker 2: for Jared Jones' is my sp three s before I was.
Speaker 1: I remember last year on leading off, you know, he
Speaker 1: was on that run. I kept asking like do we
Speaker 1: trade him? Like do we sell high? It was so difficult,
Speaker 1: you know, and if he ended up selling high, you
Speaker 1: ended up doing really well because the second half obviously
Speaker 1: just didn't work out health guys, and obviously performance wise,
Speaker 1: but it was difficult because he was so dominant early on,
Speaker 1: and you know sometimes that happens with the young pitchers
Speaker 1: two and then you know they get a little bit
Speaker 1: more exposed in the league. That happens, but also they
Speaker 1: hit that innings. Well, there's a lot of those variables
Speaker 1: in that discussion. They're also you know, it's interesting too
Speaker 1: because you look at the organization. They got the bubble
Speaker 1: Chandler's coming through that organization too. And there's been even
Speaker 1: in the off season, there was some discussion of like, ooh,
Speaker 1: is Jones a guy we might dangle out there. If
Speaker 1: I was the Orioles, I'd be all over him. They
Speaker 1: have a glut of all these offensive prospects. The Pirates
Speaker 1: could use some more offense. They've got a lot of
Speaker 1: pitching coming through. To me, that's something that just makes
Speaker 1: it just makes a ton of sense.
Speaker 2: Orioles getting on twenty teams that the Orioles should be
Speaker 2: calling to trade. And how many guys.
Speaker 1: Can you play in the in the infield Baltimore. I
Speaker 1: I don't know, so.
Speaker 2: Let's go get Trevor Rodgers. It doesn't make sense to me.
Speaker 2: I'm so sorry, Orioles fans. We actually put on an
Speaker 2: article about Michael Lias back in November about how the
Speaker 2: ownership is. We have a very trusted source for this.
Speaker 2: The ownership said, hey, I'm new, I have money, Please
Speaker 2: spend the money. Michael Liais is like, nah, I'm good.
Speaker 2: I want to I want to be like the Rays.
Speaker 1: No, it's that's crazy. I mean it just it makes
Speaker 1: sense for the pirates too, like you want to support schemes.
Speaker 1: You want to support some of these guys that you're
Speaker 1: going to have in the front of this rotation for
Speaker 1: years to come.
Speaker 2: But I know how crazy this seems. I would not
Speaker 2: be saying this if the source wasn't rock Steady.
Speaker 1: So no, I know it doesn't incrust you.
Speaker 2: Guys have seen how the Oriols did not spend. Yeah,
Speaker 2: off team Charlie Morton.
Speaker 1: There it is, guys, Charlie Morton. When pictures are the
Speaker 1: same age almost as me, it might be time to
Speaker 1: be looking for a different strategy. I'm just saying, just saying,
Speaker 1: no offense to Charlie. Got mad respect for the guy.
Speaker 1: But another guy in this tier before we move on
Speaker 1: to the next one that you have pinpointed is Sandy
Speaker 1: en Contra. Who's a guy that I have in my
Speaker 1: Homekeeper League. I picked up last year for a buck
Speaker 1: and just wanted to sit and wait, and I got
Speaker 1: him and McClanahan, I got him for two bucks and
Speaker 1: a Contra because people just forgot. You know, it's a
Speaker 1: keeper league, so people had just forgotten that they were
Speaker 1: floating around there, and I had them in the queue
Speaker 1: and I was just waiting till nobody else had any cash.
Speaker 1: And then I was like, boom, boom boom, I'll get
Speaker 1: to take these two guys. And then because I was
Speaker 1: in the rebuilding that league anyway, after being competitive for
Speaker 1: about four years, and it's interesting you chose Al Contra
Speaker 1: over McClanahan. Mclanahan's more time to recover. I love both
Speaker 1: these guys. A Contra to me was just so such
Speaker 1: a workhorse, consistent over two hundred innings twice something you
Speaker 1: never see a cy young in twenty twenty two. So
Speaker 1: I'm curious why Ald Contara and then why Ald Katara
Speaker 1: over a guy like McClanahan, just in terms of like
Speaker 1: how you cherry pick them.
Speaker 2: Sure, I'll actually start with the latter for a couple
Speaker 2: of reasons. One, I'll Contra, sorry, Al Kantara is cheaper,
Speaker 2: he's going thirty picks later, which is just nicer. That
Speaker 2: means I don't have to feel like I need to
Speaker 2: get Al Kantara the same time as McClanahan. Also mcclanahan's
Speaker 2: workload I actually have less confidence in with the rays
Speaker 2: being the rays, and it's also different types of workload.
Speaker 2: So I with al Kantara, what's so interesting is he's
Speaker 2: already throwing ninety nine. I mean, he was in the
Speaker 2: bullpen in September that got a site. But like you
Speaker 2: just came out on spring training. I was like, yeah,
Speaker 2: I've got it, it's fine, We're all good. And Craig
Speaker 2: Mish came out with a report that there are no
Speaker 2: restrictions for al Kantara this year, which is unreal, but okay,
Speaker 2: all right then, okay.
Speaker 1: Now miss a friend of mine for many many years.
Speaker 1: I mean that's how I started this business, Craig and
Speaker 1: I doing shows together. So do you think that's also
Speaker 1: sending that flag out to everybody else, like, hey, he's
Speaker 1: got no restrictions, he's available, come get him, because where
Speaker 1: the Marrow.
Speaker 2: And I actually even proposed they do a reverse Gara crochet, which.
Speaker 1: Is they they actually limit him sometimes.
Speaker 2: In the first half of the season and then saying, great,
Speaker 2: trade Dune. He's all ready for you, you know, but
Speaker 2: doesn't look like that. And I love this. It's also
Speaker 2: in twelve teamers, the mindset should be the roster spot
Speaker 2: shouldn't necessarily be the player. And the reason for that
Speaker 2: is you have a guy like out Katara and you're saying, well,
Speaker 2: if they're going to keep throwing him six seven innings,
Speaker 2: eventually he's not gonna be able to carry that workload
Speaker 2: in he will get hurt again. That is different than
Speaker 2: Sean mcclanahan's innings being overseen and stretched out over a
Speaker 2: full season at one point fifty because what sounds like
Speaker 2: to me is that if Kantara goes and let's say
Speaker 2: he goes one hundred and fifty innings, it's not because
Speaker 2: the Marlins limited him. It's because he's not pitching anymore
Speaker 2: in August or September. That means you get that roster
Speaker 2: spot back to fill it with something else off of
Speaker 2: your waiver wire. So that is a huge value boost
Speaker 2: in my view. It's why actually I'm favoring Strider, It's
Speaker 2: why I'm favoring de Gram more than what you'll see
Speaker 2: from a projection system, and it's maybe a little bit
Speaker 2: with glass because the dater is gonna be weird I
Speaker 2: think with laws now. But so these guys are gonna
Speaker 2: go until they can't and then you get to replace it.
Speaker 2: That's a roster spot open and it should really be
Speaker 2: the replacement value projection plus their innings one, which is
Speaker 2: a fun concept that I'll talk about another time. I
Speaker 2: love Alkantara. I think he's incredible. He throws super hard,
Speaker 2: has a change up and slider, the Missus bats. It's
Speaker 2: just great. The only downside here is that it's the
Speaker 2: Marlins winds are gonna be a little bit tougher. If
Speaker 2: he's still going deep into games, you still should get
Speaker 2: decent amounts like such a harmful like three wins the
Speaker 2: entire year. And also, I don't know if I love
Speaker 2: Zabra Edwards at short Hopefully he's not gonna be there.
Speaker 2: I don't know that's a hitter. But if he is
Speaker 2: there in that defense, that is.
Speaker 1: Going to be to talk about that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not gonna be a fun defense to pitch
Speaker 2: in front of, which might mean that his hit for
Speaker 2: nine and his whip take a larger hit than it
Speaker 2: used to be. For all, Kantara is still again a
Speaker 2: guy that you're not going to drop, and I think
Speaker 2: he's going to win at times too.
Speaker 1: I think it's about Sandy too, is that you know
Speaker 1: he doesn't have to strike out everybody. You know, you
Speaker 1: look at the strikeout like he can. That's not his game.
Speaker 1: Like it's almost like a throwback to that Roy Holliday
Speaker 1: kind of style where it's like, you know where you
Speaker 1: look at the holiday numbers, you go, he could strike
Speaker 1: at mark guys. But he's trying to be efficient. He's
Speaker 1: trying to get into the later, into the bullpen. He's
Speaker 1: trying to get w's and find the outs in lineups,
Speaker 1: which is the art of pitching, which is a bit
Speaker 1: a bit of a lost art I feel like, and
Speaker 1: that's not the guy he was when he came up.
Speaker 1: I want to keep going because I know we only
Speaker 1: have a certain amount of time here to get all
Speaker 1: these guys in before we get to the next grouping. Uh.
Speaker 1: Draft Wizard, it's out there for you. The tools are
Speaker 1: out There's a doope, be a tool, use the tools.
Speaker 1: Use Draft Wizard to get expert rankings, perform quick mock drafts,
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Speaker 1: ready to win, head to fantasypros dot com, slash MLB
Speaker 1: Draft Wizard or download the MLB Draft Wizard app and
Speaker 1: start drafting smarter today. Next grouping here, Nick Pollock fifty
Speaker 1: one through seventy. Now some really interesting names here. We've
Speaker 1: got some upside guys here obviously, and some guys that
Speaker 1: are maybe just guys. The first guy that you've targeted
Speaker 1: here to talk about is Robbie Ray. Now another guy
Speaker 1: returning from Tommy John, another guy that's got high strikeout potential.
Speaker 1: What is exciting to you about Robbie Ray? Now that
Speaker 1: we are further removed and could this be the best
Speaker 1: version potentially we get of Robbie Ray?
Speaker 2: Absolutely and now he saw him healthy and ready to
Speaker 2: go as bloss He came back up with the Giants
Speaker 2: last year. I like the team context. I like the
Speaker 2: Giants are going to let him go deep into games.
Speaker 2: Good team around him not necessarily the greatest offense, but
Speaker 2: a good defense in general, and he should get a
Speaker 2: fair number of wins. Strikeouts should be plentiful. He's always
Speaker 2: flirting with a thirty percent strikeout rate. And I love
Speaker 2: the fact that he's now learning Trek Scooble's change up.
Speaker 2: It's really been this element that he's missed in his game,
Speaker 2: where he has the fastball slider curve that destroy lefties. Fine,
Speaker 2: but it can be a little volatile against right handers
Speaker 2: because you really need to nail that slider down and inside,
Speaker 2: underneath the nitro zone, which is essentially inside the strike zone,
Speaker 2: but down and in and you have to go right
Speaker 2: underneath that and then you get them. But a change
Speaker 2: up is just the destroyer of right handers these days.
Speaker 2: We see this all the time, from like from schoobl
Speaker 2: from Reagan's, from even Tyler Anderson. How does he do
Speaker 2: a thing? It's because of that change up, right, chrispher Sanchez.
Speaker 2: There's so many lefties with these change ups that destroy
Speaker 2: and you have that to Robbi Ray, you can throw
Speaker 2: that sixty percent of the time for strikes. I mean,
Speaker 2: he's got it made. I think this is such an
Speaker 2: easy play of yeah, you aren't going to get the
Speaker 2: ratios that should hurt you. He's been much better than
Speaker 2: his former self since that last year in Toronto and
Speaker 2: then moving over to the Mariners, and really I'm not
Speaker 2: seeing anything from last year that suggests that Robbie Ray
Speaker 2: isn't that guy. Still. I love this, especially at fifty six.
Speaker 2: Oh my gosh. Yeah, I have him at like thirty
Speaker 2: in MISP rankings. So all day, am I getting Robbie
Speaker 2: Ray If he's going at one eight seven, one hundred
Speaker 2: and eighty seven in my drafts? Oh that's a steal.
Speaker 1: I don't disagree. I know some people are trying to
Speaker 1: draft him last year. I hope they get something at
Speaker 1: the very end of the year, but you know, this
Speaker 1: year seems like the time to be targeting him, and
Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised. I think it if he has
Speaker 1: a couple of big spring outings in the next couple weeks,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be shocked if Robby Ray starts ticking up
Speaker 1: and breaking that top fifty. But right now, at the
Speaker 1: fifty six pitcher going off the board, I think I
Speaker 1: agree with you. A big value Spencer Aarraghetti of the
Speaker 1: Houston Astros the next guy on the list of talk about.
Speaker 1: Now last year he had an ERA above four and
Speaker 1: a half. All the deeper metrics tell you that probably
Speaker 1: should have been closer to four, which is again not ideal.
Speaker 1: But this is a kid still, this is a young pitcher.
Speaker 1: Houston Astros are still going to be a competitive baseball team.
Speaker 1: When you start studying Araghetty, what jumped out to you
Speaker 1: in terms of why you think he could be useful
Speaker 1: this season?
Speaker 2: Oh oh, this is pretty easy. I first and foremost
Speaker 2: Aragedty wasn't the guy that you know until midway through
Speaker 2: the year. He was obviously coming up and struggling. And
Speaker 2: it's just what what these guys do? I call it
Speaker 2: the shag rug. It's a young man's floor, right Where.
Speaker 1: Is that what you got going on in the office
Speaker 1: right now?
Speaker 2: While yeah, I know, actually, because it's actually really good sound,
Speaker 2: I'm removing echo. But no, it's it helps massively. Okay,
Speaker 2: everybody should do that for their audio. No. All I'm
Speaker 2: trying to get at is he has his run of
Speaker 2: fourteen games last year, there was a three eight e
Speaker 2: one eighteen twenty nine percent strike every that was his
Speaker 2: final seventy nine frames seventy six frames, I should say,
Speaker 2: and now Aragedy is in a phenomenal situation. He's on
Speaker 2: the Astros, which you want to be as a starting pitcher.
Speaker 2: You want to be a starter for the Astros. They
Speaker 2: let their guys go longer in games, they have a
Speaker 2: good defense behind them, they have a solid offense. It's
Speaker 2: a great situation. And when Aragedy has five pitches, I
Speaker 2: mean he has multiple whiff offerings, which is great. He's
Speaker 2: got this curbball, he trusts a ton, he's got a
Speaker 2: slider in there, he's got a cut up for strikes.
Speaker 2: He's got sometimes change of this shows up. He's got
Speaker 2: to forcing him that's very flat, which essentially means that
Speaker 2: it should get wifs at the top of the zone effectively,
Speaker 2: like he has all the tools, and initially he struggled
Speaker 2: throwing strikes with them, and he got much better as
Speaker 2: the season went on. I also, I hate saying this
Speaker 2: kind of stuff because this is like pseudo analysis. But
Speaker 2: I've I've read interviews with Aragedy. I love the way
Speaker 2: that he thinks.
Speaker 1: He is a.
Speaker 2: Very good cerebral pitcher in that he's aware of what
Speaker 2: he needs to be doing, making the small tweaks, really
Speaker 2: attentive to the details of it, and a lot of
Speaker 2: times we see guys that go, oh no, I just
Speaker 2: got to be me whatever, this is what was made
Speaker 2: me successful. I need to be you know, he's he's
Speaker 2: dumb enough to be an all star kind of thing, right,
Speaker 2: But Aragedy actually had that conversation in the middle of
Speaker 2: the season, and then you see the impact that it
Speaker 2: had after that. So I love ARAGEDI here, and we're
Speaker 2: also past pick two hundred and what I was saying
Speaker 2: before at the beginning of this, we're at that point
Speaker 2: that you should already have four starters that you trust,
Speaker 2: that you know you're not dropping, not five. Honestly, concerning
Speaker 2: how deep it goes this year, Rageddy would then be
Speaker 2: your SB six in a twelve teamer. That is the
Speaker 2: perfect guy to go for. If it's not there, if
Speaker 2: he doesn't have his command or really his control early
Speaker 2: in the season, you just drop him and you move on.
Speaker 2: It's not there, it won't work, and it's going to
Speaker 2: be a hipster, a headache inducing pictures, stifling the tire
Speaker 2: roster if you hold on to him. Okay, you don't
Speaker 2: want hipsters on your team. So you'll be able to
Speaker 2: make a quick decision on aragedy and then if it's good,
Speaker 2: you got yourself a stud. If it's not, you're at
Speaker 2: least putting yourself in a position they can go get
Speaker 2: the next big thing instead of other guys who are
Speaker 2: sitting there on their hands on Brandon Fought say no, no, no,
Speaker 2: this is going to work out. As going to work
Speaker 2: out now they miss I don't know this year's Flairty,
Speaker 2: this year's Cruche, this year's Tanner. How all of those guys.
Speaker 2: You've got to give yourself an opportunity to go get them.
Speaker 1: So is huge target to throw your first the first
Speaker 1: big disagreement. It's not over the player, it's over you
Speaker 1: saying it's pseudo analysis. I think the cerebral part is
Speaker 1: very important. I think the makeup of a guy has
Speaker 1: a lot to do with what I think of him
Speaker 1: as a player, because eventually it's everybody this level is
Speaker 1: super talented. It's the approach, it's the intention of detail,
Speaker 1: it's a work ethic. It's all those intangibles that make
Speaker 1: you great at this level. Talent makes you get to
Speaker 1: that level, it's the intangibles that get you passed. There.
Speaker 2: I absolutely agree, And to your point, I want to Eddie,
Speaker 2: I just want to say that every best shape of
Speaker 2: your life or comment about good things means that they're going.
Speaker 1: To be good.
Speaker 2: Is you know, oh that's all.
Speaker 1: That's a bunch of crap. But when you hear them
Speaker 1: talk about the things they have to work on or
Speaker 1: things they identify, you know, it's it's you know, a
Speaker 1: lot of the reasons why I'm in on some of
Speaker 1: the players this year who even had bad years last
Speaker 1: year or post hype sleepers this year. It's some guys
Speaker 1: I think are just getting it and figured out last year.
Speaker 1: I remember watching a lot of stuff about Ezekiel Tovar right,
Speaker 1: perfect example, and I was listening to him talk about
Speaker 1: the hitting and the things he wasn't doing right, and
Speaker 1: I was like, you know, this kid really understands and
Speaker 1: clear he's got a lot of talent plays in a ballpark.
Speaker 1: If he can implement some many things he's talking about,
Speaker 1: he's gonna have a successful year. And he did. Erag Getty,
Speaker 1: by the way, you mentioned that better second half first
Speaker 1: seventeen games five six three ERA, second half three to
Speaker 1: one eight ERA over his final eleven starts, so a
Speaker 1: big difference there, big jump, one more guy, another one,
Speaker 1: big upside. Brandon Woodriff. Last time we saw Brandon Woodriff,
Speaker 1: this guy was a dominant frontline starter. What makes you
Speaker 1: think we could get that version of him in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five. I don't. I have no idea.
Speaker 2: But it's picked two seventeen, and just like ourgedy, it's
Speaker 2: all about quick decisions. So we'll know if Woodriff is
Speaker 2: good or not. And if he's good, well, he has
Speaker 2: struck gold. You know. It's the only reason for us
Speaker 2: to suggest that he won't be is because, yeah, he's
Speaker 2: been hurt and we're scared about this shoulder injury. We
Speaker 2: know that data. It's the low chance of this kind
Speaker 2: of surgery coming back and being the same. But I
Speaker 2: don't know. It's one it's one dude, and he's apparently
Speaker 2: healthy and they're trying to get him into the rotation
Speaker 2: to start the year. I'd say take a chance, see
Speaker 2: what happens, and if not, you move on. This is
Speaker 2: not the draft pick that you're holding on to for
Speaker 2: the entire year. Really, you have to embrace as much
Speaker 2: as possible to win your twelve teamers. This is what
Speaker 2: I do every single year. It's it's the tried and
Speaker 2: true method, especially for someone that focuses on starting pictures
Speaker 2: every night. And you will find so much on the
Speaker 2: waiver wire, but you have to give yourself an opportunity
Speaker 2: to go for it. So instead of going for the middle,
Speaker 2: go for high or low and this could hit in
Speaker 2: a huge way. If it's not, don't worry. That gives
Speaker 2: you now an opportunity to go get something else that
Speaker 2: can be a much bigger improvement than your Toby. You're
Speaker 2: you're boring. I don't know who's in this grouping that
Speaker 2: I don't like. Jose Burrios. Ah, you don't want to
Speaker 2: deal with that.
Speaker 1: That's I mean, you know what you're getting.
Speaker 2: You're getting your year.
Speaker 1: You're getting starts, and you're getting probably are surprisingly good starts. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think what's getting is Brios. You get ten starts
Speaker 1: that are surprisingly good, ten starts where you are just
Speaker 1: like whatever, and then ten starts where you want to
Speaker 1: jump off a tall building. Yeah.
Speaker 2: He's called the great undulator. He always finds a way
Speaker 2: to be between a three five e array and a
Speaker 2: three eight with like a one to seventeen earra Sorry
Speaker 2: whip every year.
Speaker 1: This is like, right, it is, but he ends up there.
Speaker 1: But Woodroff is only thirty two years old, So I'm
Speaker 1: with you. You're gonna take some dart throws to try
Speaker 1: to win a league. Why not throw him on a
Speaker 1: guy like Woodroff. Next grouping here seventy one through one
Speaker 1: hundred obviously a big mix bag here. You know, you
Speaker 1: got everybody from your Jackson Jobes to your Michael Wakas.
Speaker 1: You've got guys on new teams like Jeffrey Springs. You
Speaker 1: got guys like Sagana who've come over from Japan. So
Speaker 1: this is again a mixed bag. And I think this
Speaker 1: is also a range where I think targeting the right
Speaker 1: names here to build that rotation depth can be huge
Speaker 1: because it can help you when you have injuries. It
Speaker 1: can help you, uh even just get an advantage because
Speaker 1: all of a sudden you hit a picture. You hit
Speaker 1: on a picture here late in a draft where they
Speaker 1: can make a big impact in your fantasy season. So
Speaker 1: let's talk about Gavin Williams because that's the first guy
Speaker 1: that you've earmarked here. What have you seen with him
Speaker 1: that makes you encourage for his performance this season?
Speaker 2: Oh? Man, so I want to reiterate one more time,
Speaker 2: if like pick three hundred, let's just say, let's say
Speaker 2: that's your last pick of the draft. There are guys
Speaker 2: on this here that are going after that, so we're
Speaker 2: already hitting waiver wire pictures at this point in this
Speaker 2: This is seventy one two, one hundred. And by the way,
Speaker 2: I did a top four hundred starting pittures. It was
Speaker 2: like seventy five thousand wards or something stupid, and I
Speaker 2: had so many guys up to one fifty one sixty
Speaker 2: that I could have theoretically put into my top one hundred.
Speaker 2: So if you were thinking about guys right now, of
Speaker 2: the worry of oh no, I won't have anyone to
Speaker 2: start if I get an injury, get that out of
Speaker 2: your head, because you will have so many guys to
Speaker 2: chase instead when that one injury happens. And a lot
Speaker 2: of these pictures I'm seeing here Mitch Keller for example,
Speaker 2: kind of Marrow, Kelly, Luis Severino, Eric Fete, Nick Martinez,
Speaker 2: Brian Bao, all of these are not the ones that
Speaker 2: I would pay my hat on to be much more
Speaker 2: than an SP seven or something like that on my teams.
Speaker 2: And what I highly recommend is to chase the ones
Speaker 2: that could be a lot more than that. Gavin Williams
Speaker 2: absolutely is that when he first came up as a rookie,
Speaker 2: he was just like one of the higher touted starting
Speaker 2: pitchers out there, extension up the wazoo at seven feet,
Speaker 2: throwing ninety six ninety seven mile per hour, overwhelming four seamers,
Speaker 2: and it's really just been the development of the other
Speaker 2: stuff that we've been waiting for. Unfortunately, he got massively
Speaker 2: delayed in twenty twenty four. It was an injury that
Speaker 2: lasted far longer than we expected into the season, and
Speaker 2: when he did arrive, yeah, he didn't get into the
Speaker 2: groove that we thought he would. Now he just threw
Speaker 2: ninety seven miles prour yesterday. Great. He's also gotten a
Speaker 2: lot more vertical break on his four seemer Awesome. He's
Speaker 2: now going with cutter, slider, curve and change, and that
Speaker 2: slider is looking like a much better number two pitch
Speaker 2: than the cutter we saw last year and the curveball
Speaker 2: that we saw as well. Both were very low strike rates.
Speaker 2: We've seen near ten percent strike rates from Gavin Williams
Speaker 2: in the past, but it's not because the fastball has
Speaker 2: been bad. Fastball is actually be getting all these strike rates.
Speaker 2: It's really been the secondaries that haven't been able to
Speaker 2: support it. So now you have the slider that actually
Speaker 2: gets you strikes, and you're in Cleveland. Who is just
Speaker 2: gonna let him start every single game? I know it's
Speaker 2: vote now, but he's still Imaginedarry Francona getting another popsicle
Speaker 2: and forgetting that the guy who is still there in
Speaker 2: the eighth inning. Like that is what I think of
Speaker 2: when I think of the Guardians. And Gavin Williams is
Speaker 2: going to go every five days. He's gonna go as
Speaker 2: long as he can in this game. He's going to
Speaker 2: rack up strikeouts. He is a strikeout pitcher, and I
Speaker 2: think that it's gonna come with ratios that you like.
Speaker 2: This is such a good mold for a pitcher. Take
Speaker 2: the chance on this, and you'll know early if you
Speaker 2: can't throw strikes, and fine, you move on. This is
Speaker 2: the whole thing. You're early decisions, high upside, you move on,
Speaker 2: you'll be okay. Gavin Williams, go get him now.
Speaker 1: One guy in this range who has finished as a
Speaker 1: top twenty five starter not that long ago, just two years.
Speaker 1: Jesus Lozardo now the Philadelphia Phillies, So big difference there.
Speaker 1: You're going from one of the worst teams in the
Speaker 1: National League to one of the best teams in the
Speaker 1: National League spot where he is now their fifth starter,
Speaker 1: you know, in that rotation the bullpen, I think a
Speaker 1: little bit improved to when you get Romano at the
Speaker 1: back end that's been their achilles heel. This this Phillies
Speaker 1: team is locking down those saves on a more regular basis.
Speaker 1: And this is a player that I recall not that
Speaker 1: long ago you and Alex Fast having an all out
Speaker 1: bloodbath fight about and now he's right, you did well, yeah,
Speaker 1: and now he's basically free, you know. And I think
Speaker 1: that's what becomes so intriguing. He's become a target of
Speaker 1: mine because in my mind, you know, I always follow,
Speaker 1: you know, certain organizations who make runs at players.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: When Tampa's on a guy, I want to be in
Speaker 1: on him, right because they see something that they can fix.
Speaker 1: The Mets are starting to become that organization of words.
Speaker 1: I never thought I would say out loud what they're
Speaker 1: starting to do with some of these guys too. I think, well,
Speaker 1: I think, you know, I'm encouraged by the concept of
Speaker 1: Clay Holmes maybe being like the next Derek Lowe kind
Speaker 1: of project. If you recall, like a guy who is
Speaker 1: extreme ground ball pitcher coming out of the bullpen. We
Speaker 1: make him a starter and he has really good success,
Speaker 1: but maybe like a higher strikeout version. You saw what
Speaker 1: they did with Severino, you saw what they do with
Speaker 1: Sean and Aya. Now it's also when teams are acquiring
Speaker 1: guys that you know are still we take for granted
Speaker 1: that Lizzardo is just not that old. He's just been
Speaker 1: around forever because he was a prospect and we all
Speaker 1: got prospect fatigue with him, and then he had arm injuries,
Speaker 1: and you know, he's pitched on some bad teams and
Speaker 1: you know Oakland and some bad teams with the Marlins.
Speaker 1: But now it feels like nothing but upside. So I'm
Speaker 1: in on this and I'm glad to see you are too.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about why you are.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So, I first of all, you guys know that
Speaker 2: Jo's a Mets fan, clear than the way you.
Speaker 1: Just suspect that's a self loathing Mets fan. You have
Speaker 1: to put that last year I got to say was
Speaker 1: Clay Homes.
Speaker 2: Last year I actually didn't see Clay Holmes on here,
Speaker 2: and I would say that the Clay Holmes is a
Speaker 2: target of mine too. I am impressed by that change
Speaker 2: up that he has.
Speaker 1: Well, he qualifies at RP. That's why so.
Speaker 2: Qualis I understood. I think he's going around this same
Speaker 2: spot though him. Actually the man I had a term
Speaker 2: for It's fine. I called Clay Holmes the Adobe by
Speaker 2: the way, because he's Clay Homes and uh and then
Speaker 2: the course is grand Homes is a real estate broker
Speaker 2: because he gets home. I just this is yeah, exactly
Speaker 2: point you get a picture of guys. Okay, so lose
Speaker 2: artem The The interesting thing here for me is twofold one. Obviously,
Speaker 2: the context is great, you have the Phillies. Now you
Speaker 2: have good win potential. The guy goes longer into games.
Speaker 2: I don't care about his health because I'm not getting
Speaker 2: him in the first one hundred and fifty or so.
Speaker 2: I don't need him to be an SP three the
Speaker 2: entire year to be a foundation and a rock of
Speaker 2: my team. I'm trying to see, like, hey, are you
Speaker 2: going to help me now? And you'll be able to
Speaker 2: tell pretty early on is the same volatile self is
Speaker 2: he's throwing those sliders well over the plate in the
Speaker 2: game crushed. Is he actually looking the four seamer well,
Speaker 2: because my gosh, he does not. Well, it's a very
Speaker 2: hittable one. However, there are tweaks to be made, and
Speaker 2: I think the Phillies can actually identify them and implement them. First,
Speaker 2: four steamer missus or has extra horizontal run than expected.
Speaker 2: That is, it kind of acts like a two seamer
Speaker 2: than a four seamer. So right now he's trying to
Speaker 2: do called strikes away to lefties. No, no, no, no,
Speaker 2: they hit that. Throw that inside like a sinker, and
Speaker 2: that should actually work really really well. Throw that arm
Speaker 2: side and he should have a lot of success against lefties.
Speaker 2: That will make it so that the mistakes he's made
Speaker 2: with his slider to lefties not nearly as much of
Speaker 2: a problem. And you can probably get away with that
Speaker 2: a little bit more. I like that a lot. Now
Speaker 2: against righty's the change up is actually really good. It's
Speaker 2: a lot better than the slider. And he still throws
Speaker 2: these sliders in these two strike counts, has made a
Speaker 2: ton of mistakes with them, and there's your problem. Just
Speaker 2: throw more change ups, so rieties and fewer sliders. And
Speaker 2: suddenly you have the volatility. A lot of those home
Speaker 2: runs kind of go away a little bit. The whip
Speaker 2: isn't so bad. The earach can be a three to
Speaker 2: six and I'll be fine because he's a twenty five
Speaker 2: to thirty percent strikeout guy and he's gonna get wins
Speaker 2: because he's on the Phillies. Wait, this is really good
Speaker 2: and I'm not spending that high draft pick on it. Also,
Speaker 2: if it's just terrible he didn't make these tweaks, fine,
Speaker 2: I'll just drop them. It's a two sixty six. This
Speaker 2: is amazing.
Speaker 1: I agree.
Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, I want to lose Arto all day.
Speaker 1: Here, last guy here in this group before we get
Speaker 1: to the guys outside of the top one hundred that
Speaker 1: we're targeting, Drew Rasmuson. I want you to fill in
Speaker 1: the blanks of this sentence, and twenty twenty five Drew
Speaker 1: ras Meson becomes.
Speaker 2: What I have no idea because it's all about how
Speaker 2: much volume he gets. And this is a really easy one.
Speaker 2: If your Rasmussen starts, you want him everywhere. He suppresses
Speaker 2: our contact, he still throws hard and he gets whiffs
Speaker 2: like it's really good, even if it's five and dive.
Speaker 2: I don't care. That's like Elite five and dives, so
Speaker 2: you're just gonna do it. Probably won't be so. I
Speaker 2: think the Raised need guys you can throw, and I'm
Speaker 2: not even worried about them going to George Steinberner Field
Speaker 2: for Rasmussen because I think he just allows too much
Speaker 2: hard we contact that like doesn't matter. The thing is
Speaker 2: is he starting? Is he actually going like more than
Speaker 2: three innings when he does start? I don't know exact
Speaker 2: Lytel doesn't have any options left and that might change things.
Speaker 2: So I'm not sure if Rasmussen actually has a rotation
Speaker 2: spot and that's why he's here of yes or no,
Speaker 2: quick decision yea gone, okay, cool, simple, easy, Just get
Speaker 2: Drew Rasmussen. See what happens. That's great, you got gold.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's see what happens with the guys outside
Speaker 1: the top one hundred. Nick's got his targets. I've got
Speaker 1: mine first one for me at one twelve. DJ hurts.
Speaker 1: I think that everyone's heard me talk about the Nationals
Speaker 1: being a sneaky team this year. I think the Athletics
Speaker 1: and the Nationals are going to be just pesky and
Speaker 1: frustrating and maybe better than people realize. I don't know
Speaker 1: how many wins the Nats will get at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, but I think they're going to be
Speaker 1: far more competitive, and I want the lefty with the
Speaker 1: big strike potential. Another guy too that I think gets it.
Speaker 1: I've had some good conversations with DJ and he is
Speaker 1: very focused about this season. He's already shown you some
Speaker 1: flashes at that minor league level too, and I think
Speaker 1: all wheels up. David Festa another guy I think is
Speaker 1: really interesting, another one who might not start in the
Speaker 1: rotation here for the Minnesota Twins, but in deeper leagues.
Speaker 1: I want this guy on my bench. Last year, again,
Speaker 1: first couple starts a little rocky, after that things went
Speaker 1: really well. He's got good strikeout potential there, He's got
Speaker 1: the right frame, all the things you're looking forward a
Speaker 1: young starting pitcher, and I do think eventually he will
Speaker 1: win out over time. So even if he's not named
Speaker 1: to that opening rotation. Festus one that if you're in
Speaker 1: these fifteen team leagues and you're trying to build some depth,
Speaker 1: guys like hers, Guys like fest are interesting. And the
Speaker 1: last one on my list here is Quinn Matthews. Now,
Speaker 1: every year in January, I start to do my minor
Speaker 1: league work because coming off the NFL season, I'm doing
Speaker 1: all my work on the NFL draft guys and doing
Speaker 1: all my work on the baseball guys, but I don't
Speaker 1: get to see a lot of minor league baseball. So
Speaker 1: I start to dig deep and I start to watch
Speaker 1: all the tape in the I light to these guys,
Speaker 1: and of all the pictures I watched, Quinn Matthews just
Speaker 1: stood out like a sore thumb in the best possible way,
Speaker 1: jumped off the screen to me in every which way.
Speaker 1: The Cardinals are desperate for help in that rotation. That
Speaker 1: rotation was like trying to go to like the old
Speaker 1: age home last year. It was crazy. I was like,
Speaker 1: what are they doing there? And nobody here? I felt
Speaker 1: like was south of thirty five in that rotation And
Speaker 1: at one point and Quinn Matthews, I think is the
Speaker 1: beginning of that. Now, how many things he has this year,
Speaker 1: All that stuff we could talk about. But when you're
Speaker 1: looking at acquiring some good young arms who might be
Speaker 1: able to at some point pop and maybe save you
Speaker 1: some free agent budget, Quinn Matthews could be one of
Speaker 1: those guys. Now, before we get to your list, I
Speaker 1: of course make the show sheet up. So I made
Speaker 1: my list first. And you were talking about seeing Quinn
Speaker 1: Matthews in spring training how much. I don't know how
Speaker 1: much you've watched Quinn Matthews before that, but what were
Speaker 1: your thoughts about him? Because you seemed kind of positive,
Speaker 1: just like I am.
Speaker 2: Well, okay, so I do a full review of the
Speaker 2: minor league system for every team before spring training hits right,
Speaker 2: and it's part of my top four hundred, and I'm
Speaker 2: all right, who are the major prospects? And I just
Speaker 2: got to know who they are because they're going to
Speaker 2: show up and I gotta be ready for those guys.
Speaker 2: And Quinn Matthews was the name I heard a lot,
Speaker 2: and I remember digging into him, not really loving it
Speaker 2: because his four seamer did not really have anything exceptional
Speaker 2: attached to it. It was decently flat, but it was
Speaker 2: like ninety four. It was not the best IVB that
Speaker 2: is vert upstairs, and I'm just kind of getting wind, like,
Speaker 2: all right, this seems like a good pitcher, but not
Speaker 2: really someone that can excel, and like it doesn't. We
Speaker 2: didn't really love his change up necessarily it was like, okay,
Speaker 2: I get it, but like it's I don't know. Then
Speaker 2: I saw him and he added two extra inches of
Speaker 2: vert on the fast. Well, now it's like e leap.
Speaker 2: And then he was spotting everything well and the changeup
Speaker 2: was working off of it, and just watching him pitch
Speaker 2: was much more of a from what I saw before.
Speaker 2: Could just be the day, but it was very much
Speaker 2: of a guy in control. And this is something that
Speaker 2: everybody can do consciously. Know who are the pictures that
Speaker 2: you expect to do well, who are the ones that
Speaker 2: are throwing and guys just aren't you know, knocking for
Speaker 2: basits and where the strike zone feels large as opposed
Speaker 2: to small. Yeah, and Quinn math I've certainly made it
Speaker 2: feel like a large strike zone.
Speaker 1: Six' five lefty who went through from a ball all
Speaker 1: the way To TRIPLE a last year And TRIPLE a
Speaker 1: stalled out a little, bit BUT i think he was
Speaker 1: just kind, of you, know done by. That WHAT i
Speaker 1: watched for some of the double ast arts and AGAIN
Speaker 1: i was just, like look this. Kid you, know there's
Speaker 1: no way he doesn't get an opportunity In Saint louis
Speaker 1: this year in my. Opinion BUT i want to know
Speaker 1: about your guys outside the top one. Hundred you have
Speaker 1: a fascinating. List let's run through them. Here first one
Speaker 1: Is Dustin. May so why is that a target of
Speaker 1: yours when you get late into.
Speaker 2: Drafts, yeah you're not going to SEE dj hurries from,
Speaker 2: me but that's. Fine that's BECAUSE i just don't believe
Speaker 2: in the changeup being consistent enough for. HIM i am
Speaker 2: excited to see it get better. Though if it, DOES
Speaker 2: i love your pick because the fastball is good, enough
Speaker 2: he's working, it maybe, overperformed but the changeup just needs
Speaker 2: to really be more solid for. Him But, may what a.
Speaker 2: Scenario oh my, Gosh Dustin may has no more. Options
Speaker 2: he's gonna be pitching as a number five for The.
Speaker 2: DODGERS i, MEAN i would be absolutely shocked if The dodgers, said,
Speaker 2: Nah Tony, gonsolin the guy who throws like ninety two
Speaker 2: now and sometimes has a splitter and, slider or maybe
Speaker 2: the guy who throws ninety seven to ninety nine with
Speaker 2: this sinker has not gotten the real opportunity to pitch
Speaker 2: throughout a season yet because he Got Tommy john and
Speaker 2: then had an esophagus surgery that was kind of terrifying
Speaker 2: when you hear about it that how has made it
Speaker 2: so that he's had even more rest and he's ready to.
Speaker 2: Go you want to pitch for The, Dodgers you're gonna get,
Speaker 2: wins especially when they're in this five man which really
Speaker 2: is kind of a six man In april because of
Speaker 2: all the off, days so it's like once a week In.
Speaker 2: April But Dustin may is primed to just go nuts
Speaker 2: and actually get into the rhythm that he was supposed
Speaker 2: to get in before in his. Career oh, MAN i
Speaker 2: Want Dustin man every single one of my. Teams and
Speaker 2: one other guy THAT i KNOW i didn't mention you very.
Speaker 2: Quickly Max meyer was like three ticks harder yesterday and
Speaker 2: has like an Elite well, now And i'm just going
Speaker 2: what you just were a slider only, guy and now
Speaker 2: you have a ninety two Mile prowur, slider not an
Speaker 2: eighty eight Mile priur, slider and you're throwing ninety six ninety,
Speaker 2: seven seven ninety four with an ideal flat attack angle
Speaker 2: you didn't, have.
Speaker 1: You, KNOW i don't.
Speaker 2: Know i'm glad you brought him.
Speaker 1: UP i didn't put on the. List just, beware, Guys,
Speaker 1: no but you know, What i'm glad you brought him,
Speaker 1: up because that's a player That i've been in on
Speaker 1: several times the last couple of years, waiting and last
Speaker 1: year was incredibly, frustrating right because you have a scenario
Speaker 1: where he comes up and he looks, good and then
Speaker 1: they are jerking him, Around they're sending him down to
Speaker 1: the minor, leagues AND i keep thinking about all we
Speaker 1: want to save his, innings save his things for what
Speaker 1: all that playoff, baseball The marlins are going to be,
Speaker 1: playing all those Important september games coming up on The marlin.
Speaker 1: Schedule it's just such a. CROC i don't understand. WHAT i.
Speaker 1: GUESS i don't know what it, was what was going on.
Speaker 1: There but once upon a, time three years, Ago Max
Speaker 1: meyer was one of the you, KNOW i Know welsh,
Speaker 1: myself even to the Aforementioned Craig missis was telling, me he's, like,
Speaker 1: look keep an eye off for This Max myer. Kid
Speaker 1: that's going to be the. Kid AND i hope that
Speaker 1: finally they just leave him all and leave him this,
Speaker 1: rotation because once upon a time he had a special
Speaker 1: trajectory and it feels like it got completely derailed in
Speaker 1: the last two years between injuries and the organization just
Speaker 1: making bad.
Speaker 2: Decisions, yeah he actually went back to his old college.
Speaker 2: Armingle his armingle was just a lot higher when we've
Speaker 2: seen him the, majors but then he went down to
Speaker 2: it for this. One it looks like and it's just
Speaker 2: so much. BETTER i, look it was one, inning, Everyone
Speaker 2: SO i can't really say that he's going to be
Speaker 2: ninety six ninety seven now because one Inning max, efforts,
Speaker 2: RIGHT i don't, know but this was a much better
Speaker 2: version Of Max meyer Than i've ever. Seen i've been
Speaker 2: the guy out on him because, like, yeah he just
Speaker 2: has a slider and that's. It i'm paying attention to,
Speaker 2: this so you should. Too But Dustin may is the
Speaker 2: guy that you should be. Drafting.
Speaker 1: Easy more guys on your, list one coming back From
Speaker 1: Tommy John Lucas, giolito and the other One Grant, Holmes
Speaker 1: and you can't make that bad joke. Again so break
Speaker 1: down these two guys for me before we get out
Speaker 1: of here. Today Grant holmes And Lucas. Giolito why should
Speaker 1: people be drafting them in twenty twenty?
Speaker 2: Five, sure so For, giulido it actually wasn't telling Me,
Speaker 2: john it was an internal. BRACE i know it's very,
Speaker 2: similar but it doesn't mean that it's, faster and it
Speaker 2: does mean that there IS i, believe a tendon that
Speaker 2: is still attached a little so in, sure it's oh.
Speaker 2: Good it's a little better to have the internal brace
Speaker 2: a little. Bit And Lucas giolito is in such a good.
Speaker 2: SITUATION i know that the twenty twenty, one twenty twenty,
Speaker 2: two the kind of what you've seen recently giulido has
Speaker 2: not been, good but there are a lot of factors
Speaker 2: for what that has. Been in actually a lot of those,
Speaker 2: seasons he was fine until he. Wasn't but now he's
Speaker 2: in a great scenario In boston where we actually saw
Speaker 2: him looking much better this time last year before he was.
Speaker 2: Hurt AND i actually think that The Red sox are
Speaker 2: going to squeeze the best version Of giulido than we've
Speaker 2: seen since twenty, nineteen really with fast walls up and
Speaker 2: change ups underneath that a better. SLIDER i really like
Speaker 2: this scenario for. HIM i think also mentally going to
Speaker 2: The Red sox from The White, SOX i think it's
Speaker 2: a little bit different, here and then also being bounced
Speaker 2: around to teams THAT i don't really trust the development
Speaker 2: with like The, angels and, honestly The guardians is a
Speaker 2: major league CREW i don't like as much as their
Speaker 2: minor league, crew WHICH i think is really good for pitching.
Speaker 2: Development So i'm a huge fan of. This you'll know
Speaker 2: early If Lucas giulido is better or, not and then
Speaker 2: you might get a good volume guy that you really
Speaker 2: want that isn't harmful or. Boring and then With Grand
Speaker 2: holmes find the deed mak or whatever you. Want he's
Speaker 2: someone with two with pitches slidering and curve that he
Speaker 2: commands really well and a four steamer that hits the.
Speaker 2: Edges and speaking of a good, scenarios It's. Atlanta he's not
Speaker 2: the number, five he's the number. Four and last year
Speaker 2: they limited him a bit because it was a big
Speaker 2: jump going from aliever to. Starter they didn't want to overwork. Him,
Speaker 2: fine but now they need him. To this is a
Speaker 2: rotation that has strided already on THE. El but then
Speaker 2: you Have Chris sale And Ronald lopez were definitely health.
Speaker 2: Risks Spencer. Schwalenbach there is some concern about the massive
Speaker 2: workload of one hundred and sixty seven innings last year
Speaker 2: between the miners and. MAJORS i don't have that as
Speaker 2: much as, others BUT i get. It long story shorts
Speaker 2: is That Grant holmes should be in this rotation as
Speaker 2: long as he's. Healthy AND i see a strikeout guy
Speaker 2: who has good command that is like the Old Cleveland guardians.
Speaker 2: Style So i'm a huge fan of that in this
Speaker 2: scenario at PICK i don't know three point fifty or something.
Speaker 1: Ridiculous, well but to your earlier, point you get a. Chance,
Speaker 1: Yeah and you made a comment earlier about, well you
Speaker 1: have guys that you just want to churn and burn
Speaker 1: sometimes at the game of the. Season he would fit
Speaker 1: that bill for, me. Right if he's got the rotation,
Speaker 1: spot he's going to be there In april And, may
Speaker 1: because we Know Spencer schrider is not going to be
Speaker 1: so at the very, least maybe you get two good
Speaker 1: months out of him and either you flip him or
Speaker 1: you're just onto the next, picture or maybe somebody from
Speaker 1: your bench emerges or from the waiver wire as you,
Speaker 1: Said so maybe he's just, good, yeah or maybe he's just.
Speaker 1: Good you're just, Good Nick. Pollock everybody should go to
Speaker 1: a picture list and check out the incredible WORK i,
Speaker 1: MEAN i don't want to like blow sunshine, here but
Speaker 1: there's nobody that does what you do as good as
Speaker 1: you do. It The pictureless website is. Incredible i've been
Speaker 1: on there reading stuff in the last couple, weeks getting
Speaker 1: myself ready for the. Season And i'm the guy that
Speaker 1: writes the pictures up for The Black, book and yet
Speaker 1: HERE i am Reading Nick pollock stuff always after the.
Speaker 1: Fact that, WAY i don't get influenced By, nick but
Speaker 1: it always is encouraging WHEN i see some of the
Speaker 1: guys that you're in, On i'm in. On that to
Speaker 1: me makes me, feel LIKE i, said confident for the.
Speaker 1: Season and of, course you, know always check Out nick
Speaker 1: and all his work because every year they Do, pitchcon
Speaker 1: which is an incredible fundraiser FOR. Als so if you
Speaker 1: get unfamiliar With nick's, work follow him on social, media
Speaker 1: be a part of Pitch gon next year if you,
Speaker 1: weren't they raised over ten thousand dollars again FOR als.
Speaker 1: RESEARCH i hope that the the the renovation in your
Speaker 1: house goes well and we start to look like you
Speaker 1: are not some sort of captive. Like the only thing
Speaker 1: worse is those years That Justin mason was like in
Speaker 1: the shed like this is just an uptick from.
Speaker 2: That he's still in the.
Speaker 1: Shop, yeah but the early, shed like the early like
Speaker 1: the Early Justin mason shed was like it was like
Speaker 1: a it was.
Speaker 2: TERRIFYING i got, things. Guys i've got like a bullpens alluble,
Speaker 2: ahead it's all. There it's just in box all right,
Speaker 2: now really just scattered around and it's terrible right. Now,
Speaker 2: joe thank you so much for bringing me on for.
Speaker 2: This it's great to see you And joe as a
Speaker 2: part of Pitch come last. Week you did a great.
Speaker 1: Job. Yeah. Here every YEAR i show, UP i go
Speaker 1: to work AND i there you Get nick half an hour.
Speaker 1: Off AND i want to hear from everybody out there
Speaker 1: in the YouTube, comments because, remember if you, comment you
Speaker 1: can win A Billy Wagner baseball here's your assignment your
Speaker 1: favorite sleeper pitcher in twenty twenty. Five and while we're
Speaker 1: at let's get to twenty five thousand subscribers on the YouTube.
Speaker 1: Channel subscribe. Wherever get your podcasts as. Well that'll do
Speaker 1: it for. Us but the story of the game goes
Speaker 1: on For Nick. Pollock I'm JOEY. P we'll see you next.
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