WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 4 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 13) 0:00:07.720 --> 0:00:10.240 Hey there everyone, Welcome back to another episode of the 0:00:10.280 --> 0:00:13.600 Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. 0:00:14.040 --> 0:00:15.960 I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me 0:00:16.040 --> 0:00:18.680 on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. It's time to break 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:21.079 down some of our favorite and least favorite bets for 0:00:21.120 --> 0:00:23.400 the week four NFL slate, and with me to talk 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:26.880 about it all is JJ Appersina, the lead YouTube contributor 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:29.520 for sharp Side. You can find him on Twitter at 0:00:29.560 --> 0:00:31.760 sports with Facts. JJ. How you doing. 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:33.880 It's up, Dan, happy to happy to be here. Thanks 0:00:33.880 --> 0:00:34.360 for having me. 0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:37.680 Yeah, absolutely, we were just talking about it. You're from Jersey, 0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:40.040 I'm from Queens. It's good sort of, you know, I 0:00:40.120 --> 0:00:42.680 moved up into the middle of nowhere. It's nice for 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:44.800 a little bit just to talk with somebody who reminds 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:45.800 me of home, you know what I mean. 0:00:46.000 --> 0:00:47.200 It's like a match made in heaven. 0:00:47.400 --> 0:00:49.919 Absolutely, we're getting along great even before we got on. 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:52.040 So let's keep it going here. As we always do 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:54.920 on our Thursday night show, We're going to each give 0:00:55.000 --> 0:00:57.880 our three best bets for this weekend's games. We'll give 0:00:57.960 --> 0:01:00.600 one bet to avoid, and then we'll list our favorite 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:03.800 prop bet for the weekend. But JJ look, I usually 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:06.040 like to ease our guests into this, okay, but we're 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:08.280 on a pretty good run here with the picks after 0:01:08.319 --> 0:01:10.760 going three and oh for week two, follow that up 0:01:10.840 --> 0:01:13.200 last week with another three and oh week, getting right 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:16.120 the Bills and Bengals under forty four, the Rams laying 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:18.520 three to the Browns and the Saints getting four from 0:01:18.520 --> 0:01:21.000 the Seahawks. And our guest Adam Burke now two of 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:23.320 his three picks, with the Lions getting six and a 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:25.560 half from the Eagles and the Rams and the Browns 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:28.200 coming in under forty seven and a half. So are 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:29.840 you ready to bring the thunder here or what? 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:33.679 So much pressure? But look, pressure makes diamonds, right, I'm. 0:01:33.560 --> 0:01:36.720 Prepared absolutely hopefully you'll be the diamond in the rough. So, 0:01:36.760 --> 0:01:38.920 as always, we're gonna get started here with pick six, 0:01:38.920 --> 0:01:40.920 where both JJ and I are going to give three 0:01:41.000 --> 0:01:43.480 of our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the 0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:46.080 spread or on the over under. Now, as always, I 0:01:46.080 --> 0:01:47.760 will note at the outset that, as I said, we 0:01:47.800 --> 0:01:50.320 are recording this during the Thursday night game between the 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:53.040 Packers and the Eagles, so we won't be making any 0:01:53.040 --> 0:01:55.160 picks on that game. But if you want to see 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:57.480 how I pick that game. You can go to bettingpros 0:01:57.520 --> 0:01:59.480 dot com. That's going to show you how I and 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:02.480 every betting expert who makes picks on the site made 0:02:02.480 --> 0:02:05.080 their picks for every game on the slate. We'll also 0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:07.720 be using the betting pros dot com consensus odds and 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:10.440 making our picks. Those are the aggregate odds that you're 0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:12.839 going to find available in the market. All right, JJ, 0:02:13.000 --> 0:02:14.480 start us off. What's your first pick here? 0:02:14.639 --> 0:02:16.880 I myself not gonna be the most popular one. I 0:02:16.919 --> 0:02:19.720 can only assume, but I'm actually big here on the 0:02:19.720 --> 0:02:24.400 Oakland Raiders getting seven against the Indianapolis Colts. Just trying 0:02:24.440 --> 0:02:26.680 to confirm a consensus at this moment, and yeah, I'm 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:28.640 seeing more or less some seven, some six and a half. 0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:30.320 I do believe you'll be able to get seven if 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:33.560 you wait long enough at your your current book. It 0:02:33.639 --> 0:02:35.200 is worth noting as well. And for the guys that 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:37.960 already know, you know kind of my stick. For me, 0:02:38.160 --> 0:02:40.800 the number is so important when you're betting NFL in 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:42.560 particlo I mean any sport for that matter, but the 0:02:42.639 --> 0:02:45.280 number is important. Having a good idea of the market 0:02:45.400 --> 0:02:48.000 in which way the market's going to swing A line 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:50.240 in one direction or the other right now that everybody's 0:02:50.320 --> 0:02:53.920 kind of drinking the Colts kool aid, especially after if 0:02:54.000 --> 0:02:56.919 you remember, before the season started with no Andrew luck, 0:02:56.919 --> 0:02:59.600 everybody was kind of against this team. Now it's almost 0:02:59.600 --> 0:03:01.400 like the market it has taken too big of a 0:03:01.440 --> 0:03:04.080 shift in favor of the Colts here. Last week they 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:06.200 were playing the Falcons, where the Falcons were an extremely 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:09.000 popular play, at least as far as the market goes. 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:11.720 Obviously the Colts handle business. You might look at the 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:13.400 final score and see they only one by three, but 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:14.640 if you watch the game, you knew the Colts more 0:03:14.680 --> 0:03:16.799 or less handled business throughout. They also have a road 0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:19.000 win at the Titans in a primetime spot. For me, 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:22.520 this is becoming a situation where this line is too big. Now. 0:03:22.520 --> 0:03:24.399 I get it, Ook was not an easy team to back, 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:27.240 right that just got Mali wopped by Minnesota, and obviously 0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:29.880 they lost to the Chiefs after an interesting Week one, 0:03:29.880 --> 0:03:32.120 but I just feel like we now have too much 0:03:32.200 --> 0:03:34.480 of a market overreaction here in favor of the Colts. 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:36.800 It's a huge number here. There's a lot of factors 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:39.040 I could break down in this game specifically, but for me, 0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:41.040 it's really about the number here. If this one was 0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:42.720 four and a half or five, I'd be staying away. 0:03:42.880 --> 0:03:44.760 But at seven, I love this play. It's one of 0:03:44.800 --> 0:03:46.680 my favorites of the week. Give me the Raiders plus 0:03:46.720 --> 0:03:48.640 all seven points versus the Colts. 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:51.320 Yeah, right now, the consensus odds have been bouncing back 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:53.600 and forth a little bit between six and a half 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:55.240 and seven. Right now they're at six and a half. 0:03:55.280 --> 0:03:57.280 But I'll be honest, I like them even at that 0:03:57.400 --> 0:04:00.760 number as well. The Sharps, by the way, at the 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:03.520 breakdown of the money coming in the public is pretty 0:04:03.520 --> 0:04:07.360 heavily on Indianapolis, but the amount of money that's actually 0:04:07.360 --> 0:04:10.960 being met is overwhelmingly about three quarters seventy five percent 0:04:11.440 --> 0:04:14.480 in favor of Oakland given the spread. And I agree 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:16.840 with you, and really, if for no other reason, then 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:19.840 you've got some major injuries here on the cult side, right, 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:21.919 I mean t Y Hilton. I don't think his practice 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:24.440 yet this week. He reinjured his squad last week. That 0:04:24.480 --> 0:04:27.320 could be a big deal. And Darius Leonard is probably 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:28.960 not going to be able to suit up either. And 0:04:29.320 --> 0:04:31.800 you know you pointed out the exact right issue is 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:35.520 that backing Oakland just feels kind of dirty for lack 0:04:35.560 --> 0:04:36.920 of a better way to say it, right, I mean, 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:40.000 they don't inspire a whole lot of confidence, and they do, 0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:44.000 to be fair, have some injuries to their linebacking court too. 0:04:44.360 --> 0:04:46.440 But I agree with you at this point, the line 0:04:46.480 --> 0:04:49.400 is a little big, and you're right, the public perception 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:52.039 has kind of gone all the way in the other 0:04:52.080 --> 0:04:55.400 way toward towards the cults here. So on our consensus, 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:58.839 it's actually sixty eight percent of experts are backing Indy. 0:04:59.160 --> 0:05:01.120 But I'm with you here. I like the Raiders here 0:05:01.160 --> 0:05:04.000 for basically most of the reasons you described, and really 0:05:04.000 --> 0:05:05.920 the injuries that are going on with Indianapolis. 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:08.080 Yeah, the injuries are definitely going to be a headache. 0:05:08.120 --> 0:05:10.280 And I have to assume Hilton's gonna play. I know that. 0:05:10.360 --> 0:05:13.279 You know, obviously Friday's a big day for injury information. 0:05:13.279 --> 0:05:15.640 I would assume Hilton will play. But regardless, like I said, 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:17.560 for me, it's a number play. This number is four 0:05:17.560 --> 0:05:19.400 and a half. It's a stay away spot, six and 0:05:19.440 --> 0:05:22.239 a half, seven, it's a rock solid slam Oakland spot. 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:24.279 You know, the only reason why I'm not sure if 0:05:24.360 --> 0:05:27.240 Hilton's gonna play anyway is they've got case next week. 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:28.840 I mean, that's a game where you're gonna need them 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:29.160 out there. 0:05:29.200 --> 0:05:29.320 Right. 0:05:29.320 --> 0:05:31.320 If you're Indy, you're probably thinking that you can get 0:05:31.320 --> 0:05:33.479 out of here with a win even without Hilton. But 0:05:33.720 --> 0:05:36.159 you know, for all the factors you said, I agree. 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:38.640 I'm a little bit surprised at the breakdown of the consensus. 0:05:38.680 --> 0:05:40.479 I thought more people would be back in Oakland. But 0:05:40.560 --> 0:05:42.400 in the end, I've got you. If it's six and 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:44.479 a half, if it's seven, I agree with you there. 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:46.720 For my first pick, I'm not sure how you're gonna 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:48.960 feel about this one, my friend, but I'm going with 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:51.359 Patriots laying seven to the Bills. 0:05:51.400 --> 0:05:51.560 Now. 0:05:51.600 --> 0:05:54.240 I talked about this on Monday with Rich Ryan when 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:56.640 we gave our initial reaction to the lines, and I 0:05:56.760 --> 0:05:59.159 just have this feeling that the Patriots are gonna absolutely 0:05:59.200 --> 0:06:01.120 blow the Bills out of the way. Now, there are 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:03.960 some questions on the Patriots heading into this game, but honestly, 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:07.040 I think it's just that the Bills are really overrated. 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:08.919 I mean, let's talk about them for a second, because 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:10.920 they've been involved in one of my picks for each 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:13.159 of the last two weeks. I took them going up 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:15.240 against the Giants and then I bet against them laying 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:17.880 four to the Bengals last week, but they've played three games. 0:06:17.960 --> 0:06:20.040 They should have lost to the Jets, and would have 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:22.840 in Week one had CJ. Moseley not been injured in 0:06:22.880 --> 0:06:25.719 the second half. They beat up on a porous Eli 0:06:25.760 --> 0:06:27.720 Manning led Giants team in Week two, and then they 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:31.479 barely squeaked by what is an adequate but generally unimpressive 0:06:31.480 --> 0:06:34.800 Bengals team at home. Now, the defense is legitimate, I'm 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:37.400 going to agree they there. They were very, very good. 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:39.960 Last year. They allowed just four point nine yards per play, 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:41.720 that was third best in the league. They're giving up 0:06:41.720 --> 0:06:43.880 almost the exact same number this year four point eight 0:06:43.960 --> 0:06:47.000 yards per play. At Oliver and Tremaine Edmonds are playing 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:49.640 great for Deavius White continues to play well in coverage. 0:06:49.760 --> 0:06:51.560 They did lose Harrison Phillips. It's going to hurt a 0:06:51.640 --> 0:06:53.320 tiny bit, but I don't really think it's enough to 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:56.040 make a difference. The defense is really strong, but regardless, 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:59.440 it is not good enough to stop the Patriots offense. 0:06:59.440 --> 0:07:01.880 It's just not Almost no defense is. And I say 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:04.960 that with the full understanding that the Patriots may not 0:07:05.040 --> 0:07:08.120 have Julian Edelman for this game, and James Devlin is out, 0:07:08.160 --> 0:07:10.680 and that actually really affects their running game. It is 0:07:10.840 --> 0:07:13.640 all irrelevant to me. The coaching staff is too good. 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:16.240 They'll find ways to use James White and Rex Burkhead 0:07:16.440 --> 0:07:19.680 and Philip Rssett will get involved. Brady hasn't exactly lit 0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:22.000 the Bills up in his history against Sean McDermot and 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:24.160 Leslie Fraser's defense, but in the last two years, the 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:28.239 Patriots have outscored the Bills in Buffalo forty eight to nine. 0:07:28.280 --> 0:07:30.840 And going the opposite way, I do not see the 0:07:30.840 --> 0:07:32.679 Bills being able to put up all that many points 0:07:32.720 --> 0:07:35.600 against the Patriots defense. I mean, regardless of the quality 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:39.000 of the opponent. That defense is elite. Gilmour is playing 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:40.920 like one of the best corners in the league. Jamie 0:07:40.960 --> 0:07:44.360 Collins is wreaking havoc all over the field. They've got depth, 0:07:44.600 --> 0:07:48.440 they've got speed. They've got six interceptions already in three games, 0:07:48.480 --> 0:07:50.200 and now they face a guy who has more than 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:53.080 an interception per game in his career. They have not 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:56.320 allowed a point in the first half of their last 0:07:56.720 --> 0:08:00.600 five games, dating back to their playoff game against the 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:04.559 Chiefs and the Super Bowl against the Rams. The weather 0:08:04.680 --> 0:08:07.320 is going to be fine. That can always be something 0:08:07.360 --> 0:08:09.280 that happens in Buffalo, but it's early, it's going to 0:08:09.320 --> 0:08:11.320 be in the sixties and sunny. I think this is 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:13.320 a statement game for the Pats. I think they're coming 0:08:13.320 --> 0:08:15.480 in here. They've got another three to zero team who 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:17.120 really isn't that good. I think they want to make 0:08:17.160 --> 0:08:19.480 a statement. This is their AFC East. They're not gonna 0:08:19.520 --> 0:08:21.200 let it be wrestled away. So I think they're going 0:08:21.280 --> 0:08:22.520 to go up there, and I think they're gonna win 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:24.680 this game handly. So I will take the Patriots, even 0:08:24.680 --> 0:08:27.080 at that key number. It's a high number, laying seven, 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:28.680 I'll take the Patriots. And I really don't have too 0:08:28.680 --> 0:08:29.720 many second thoughts about it. 0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:34.080 I really legitimately like the call, but only to a 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:37.680 certain extent. And here's the logic that I kind of see. 0:08:37.679 --> 0:08:39.240 You bring up a ton of good points. This is 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:41.600 really the Patriots division. Year in year out. The Bills 0:08:41.640 --> 0:08:43.920 could be somewhat of fluff, especially based on who they played, 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:46.160 you know, the Jets, Giants, Bangles. But if you take 0:08:46.160 --> 0:08:48.480 a step back and realize who the Patriots have played, 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:50.400 and if you make the argument for all, well, there's 0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:52.680 enough parody in the league where you're really good teams 0:08:52.679 --> 0:08:54.240 can always beat up on the bad teams. I mean 0:08:54.240 --> 0:08:56.120 the Steelers, Dolphins, and Jets. Koby, the Steelers are not 0:08:56.200 --> 0:08:57.520 what we thought they were going to be, and obviously 0:08:57.559 --> 0:08:59.680 there's no Roethlisberger, and then the Dolphins and the Jets 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:02.400 are two teams in the NFL. I don't mind the 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:05.200 idea that, oh, well, the Buffalo Bills haven't played anyboddy 0:09:05.280 --> 0:09:08.720 and now they're really getting their first test. But for me, 0:09:09.440 --> 0:09:11.959 it's it's a tough spot for me because I truly 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:14.960 don't know how good the Buffalo Bills are or aren't. 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:16.800 I think the assumptions could be made that they're not 0:09:16.880 --> 0:09:18.679 that good. But remember this was a team that was 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:21.760 getting a lot of hype preseason about their improvements on 0:09:21.880 --> 0:09:25.240 defense and interesting to see how they play here now. 0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:26.640 I feel like this would have this would have been 0:09:26.679 --> 0:09:28.400 to the Buffalo's advantage if this game's played a little 0:09:28.440 --> 0:09:29.920 later in the year, where it's a little colder, maybe 0:09:29.960 --> 0:09:32.680 some snow, maybe you could really lean on the home crowd, 0:09:32.720 --> 0:09:35.160 the Bill's mafia. By the way, how is it not 0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:37.440 on everybody's bucket list to go through a table outside 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:41.200 Buffalo Stadium? Pregame. But look, ultimately I do like the call. 0:09:41.240 --> 0:09:43.200 For me, it was a more or less a stay 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:45.400 away spot at seven hoping to get I'd hope to 0:09:45.440 --> 0:09:47.440 get six and a half on one side or seven 0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:49.680 and a half on the other if I was going 0:09:49.720 --> 0:09:53.120 to bet it. But again, I can't question anybody who 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:55.080 backs New England against Buffalo, that's for sure. 0:09:55.200 --> 0:09:56.880 Yeah, And to be clear, I don't think this is 0:09:56.880 --> 0:09:59.880 one where everybody's going to be backing this pick. Whatsoe? 0:10:00.200 --> 0:10:02.000 I mean, I think people like the Bills and they 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:04.360 do have a legitimate defense. I want to make that clear. 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:07.240 I'm not insulting those fans. I went to school in Buffalo. 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:10.280 I agree going to tailgating there is crazy and it's 0:10:10.559 --> 0:10:13.000 a crazy spot. The crowd's going to be raucous. But 0:10:13.120 --> 0:10:15.719 without that weather, it's not quite as bad as it 0:10:15.760 --> 0:10:18.080 would be. And regardless, it's just not enough to stop 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:21.240 the Patriots at this point. Honestly, I would feel better 0:10:21.280 --> 0:10:23.600 about the Bills had they lost a game at some 0:10:23.640 --> 0:10:25.920 point coming in. I think when you have the AFC 0:10:25.960 --> 0:10:29.559 East Showdown both three and zero, I think, realistically the 0:10:29.600 --> 0:10:30.920 Pats are just going to go in there, and I 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:33.000 think they're going to want to make a statement. The 0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:36.440 injuries are slightly concerning. If Henlelman misses the game, eventually, 0:10:36.440 --> 0:10:37.839 you're gonna have to have somebody to throw the ball 0:10:37.880 --> 0:10:40.640 to because Josh Gordon is also battling injury. At least 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:42.280 last week against the Jets, he was on and off 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:45.880 the field, so it's a little worrisome he is practicing 0:10:45.920 --> 0:10:48.680 on a limited basis. But regardless, this just feels to 0:10:48.760 --> 0:10:50.839 me like this is going to be the statement game 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:52.920 for the Pats. So I'm willing to lay the big number. 0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:55.400 I agree seven is a lot, but I'm willing to 0:10:55.440 --> 0:10:55.760 lay it. 0:10:55.920 --> 0:10:59.439 I like the call real quick. The receivers injuries, I 0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:01.240 wouldn't real work too much about that, Dan. I mean, 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:03.000 you know, you know, they could just slop me and 0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:04.400 you in there and we could easily have pick up 0:11:04.400 --> 0:11:05.000 five six camels. 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:08.720 Maybe not us, but like two reasonably athletic human beings. 0:11:08.880 --> 0:11:11.760 It's probably correct. But yeah, no, I agree. I mean again, 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:15.240 if Edelman misses the game, I'm still taking the Pats 0:11:15.280 --> 0:11:17.600 at this number. It'll be all James White and Rex 0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:20.000 Burkhead and some receiver who I've never heard of before. 0:11:20.080 --> 0:11:22.360 So I'm really not concerned about it. Again, a lot 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:24.079 of it is the mindset, and I'm a Jets fan. 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:28.600 I have watched the Patriots closely over the last twenty 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:32.320 years or so, and realistically, this just strikes me as 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:34.800 them being like, oh, really, you're three and zero, You're 0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:36.959 coming here. You're saying you want to take this division, 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:39.000 you will take it from my cold dead hands. So 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:41.960 that's just how I see this game unfolding. And again, 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:44.920 it's not an overly popular pick. I think the money, 0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:47.520 if anything, trends towards the Bills here. I think the 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:50.920 consensus picks are relatively even, maybe even a little shaded 0:11:50.920 --> 0:11:53.040 towards the Bills last time I checked. But in the end, 0:11:53.320 --> 0:11:56.320 I'm really comfortable with this game. So I'm gonna do it, 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:58.840 and I'm not gonna have too many worries about it personally. 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:00.800 Let's move on to here. Second pick, what do you 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:01.320 got for me? 0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:06.280 Denver Broncos minus three versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. I do 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:08.600 believe you could get two and a half, or at 0:12:08.679 --> 0:12:10.000 least you could have gotten two and a half. I 0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:12.240 think now I'm starting to starting to see three and 0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:16.000 a half definitely, like really like three in this spot. 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:17.920 Here's the logic. I know that the Broncos are ower 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:20.520 and three, and I know they just lost a really 0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:22.719 bad game to the Packers. You know, it's not bad 0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:24.480 that you lost to the Packers, but obviously they didn't cover, 0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:26.439 they didn't play well. They're also one and two against 0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:29.560 the spread, with their loan win being a game against Chicago, 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:31.319 where pending when you bet it, they actually could have 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:33.720 been zero and three against the spread. The reason I 0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:36.640 like the spot here is really in the trenches. You 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:39.120 take a look at Denver's defensive line and what they 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:41.839 can bring to the table from the linebacker perspective as well, 0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:45.559 and that Jacksonville offensive line. It's just one of the 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:48.640 worst and offensive lines in the NFL haven't had really 0:12:48.640 --> 0:12:51.160 that many opportunities to be exposed all that much. Yet. 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:54.440 You know, Titans, Texans chiefs. Obviously Texans can bring a 0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:56.679 good pass rush, but more or less they kind of 0:12:56.679 --> 0:13:00.920 held Jacksonville in check for the most part. There. Thinking here, though, 0:13:01.040 --> 0:13:03.640 is you get the young quarterback Garner Minshew has to 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:07.520 travel to Denver. This will be what I believe to 0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:10.280 be his first true road game as a starter. I mean, 0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:12.960 I know that he kind of sloted in in Houston, 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:15.360 I believe. But ultimately this is gonna be a tough 0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:17.400 place to play for him. And again, a lot of 0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:18.800 pressure is going to be assumed to come up the 0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:20.200 middle for him. He's gonna have to do a lot 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:22.800 of scrambling, make a lot of uncomfortable throws. I know 0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:24.679 that it's tough to back Denver and Joe Flacco and 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:27.360 how that offense has been producing. But again, you know, 0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:29.160 how do you beat Jacksonville, right? You beat them with 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.560 the run game. Denver's got a very good run game 0:13:31.960 --> 0:13:34.600 with Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. I would expect them 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.319 to lean heavy on that. A lot of screens play action, 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:39.720 and again, you know, the whole Jayalin Ramsey situation is 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:43.120 still weird. For me. This is a big slam spot 0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:45.040 for the Broncos. Again. I know they're zero to three. 0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:47.640 I know everybody's drinking the Gardner Minshew kool aid, But 0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:50.199 for me, the numbers a little too small here. Jacksonville's 0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:51.920 getting a little too much respect. I know they get 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.440 the extra A few days after Thursday Night Football, everybody 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:56.920 watched them win primetime against the Titans, and everybody just 0:13:56.920 --> 0:14:00.200 watched Denver lose in a bad one against the Packers. Again, 0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:02.080 this is a week to week league. Really like Demver 0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:02.640 in this spot. 0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:04.880 Do you like the amount of curiosity if the number 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:06.760 sits at three and a half instead of three? 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:08.319 I do not like them at three and a half. 0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:10.480 For me, the value, the value is really at three. 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:12.480 I don't want to I don't I wouldn't want if 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:13.880 you guys see three and a half, I wouldn't want 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:15.439 you to play the hook there. But again it's like 0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:17.600 I always say, you need to be leveraging multiple books. 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:20.040 If you're going to find yourself success in this space 0:14:20.080 --> 0:14:22.840 and in this industry, you need to be leveraging multiple 0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:25.360 sports books. Because again it's crazy as it might sound. 0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:27.440 You know, if you're leveraging four or five sports books, 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:28.600 and I know it's kind of hard to keep that 0:14:28.680 --> 0:14:30.640 much money tied up in different areas, But if you're 0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:32.920 leveraging that many sports books, you're going to notice differences 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:35.280 in lines. Whether it's fifteen twenty cents here, fifteen twenty 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:37.440 cents there, half a point here, half a point there. 0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:39.880 Might not matter in a one week sample, but multiply 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:42.600 that by fifty two weeks, by three four years. You're talking, 0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:45.920 you know, you're talking easily an additional thirty forty bets 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:48.080 over the course of a season, maybe even more, that 0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:49.720 are in your favor one hundred percent. 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:51.600 I agree with that. And one of the things on 0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:54.680 bettingpros dot com is we give the consensus odds, and 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:57.480 so you want to see what is out there generally 0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:59.760 in the market. But it also lists the various odds 0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:01.960 that are available at different sports books. And if you 0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:04.440 look at the Jaguars and the Broncos, you'll see there 0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:06.520 are some sports books that are at three. There are 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:08.520 some sports books that are at three and a half. 0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:10.440 So you really want to pick and choose your battles. 0:15:10.800 --> 0:15:15.800 As for me, I lean in your direction. It feels 0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:19.080 uncomfortable again to go with Denver. How do they not 0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:22.720 have a sack on the year? I do not understand. 0:15:22.720 --> 0:15:24.440 My guess is you pointed out the problems with the 0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:27.320 Jaguars line that they're gonna get a bunch. I think 0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:30.280 they're gonna be motivated this week. I'm a little I 0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:32.480 get a little worried about the Mini bi you know, 0:15:32.560 --> 0:15:35.200 the playing off of Thursday. Teams like that. I feel 0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:38.240 like generally come out strong, but They're probably coming off 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:41.040 a little bit of a high, and I think Denver really, 0:15:41.080 --> 0:15:43.320 I mean, if they're gonna do anything this season, which 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:46.160 they're obviously not, but if they're going to at all 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:49.440 make a statement for this season, it's gonna be here 0:15:49.800 --> 0:15:52.920 at home against a very mediocre team, against you know, 0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:57.800 a kid making his third professional start. So I lean 0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:00.160 towards your way. I don't know if I would have 0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:03.840 enough to take it at laying three, but I definitely 0:16:03.920 --> 0:16:05.680 lean your way. I do think that the defense is 0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:07.640 going to come out and try to make a statement here. 0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:11.280 Let's move on to my second pick, and that is 0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:14.960 going to be the under on the Panthers Texans, and 0:16:15.000 --> 0:16:17.680 that is at forty seven and a half. Look, Kyle 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:20.760 Allen looked great last week, and frankly, had he been 0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:23.400 the quarterback for the Panthers since the start of the season, 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:25.800 I'm pretty sure that they're three and zero right now. 0:16:25.840 --> 0:16:28.160 But that is much more because of how bad Cam 0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:30.720 Newton was. I think everyone's going just a little bit 0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:34.040 crazy about evaluating Allen off a game against a truly 0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:36.920 terrible defense in the Cardinals. I know he looked good 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:38.680 when he filled in at the very end of last year, 0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:41.200 but you really can't draw too many conclusions from that. 0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:44.320