Speaker 1: Hey there everyone, Welcome back to another episode of the
Speaker 1: Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. It's time to break
Speaker 1: down some of our favorite and least favorite bets for
Speaker 1: the week four NFL slate, and with me to talk
Speaker 1: about it all is JJ Appersina, the lead YouTube contributor
Speaker 1: for sharp Side. You can find him on Twitter at
Speaker 1: sports with Facts. JJ. How you doing.
Speaker 2: It's up, Dan, happy to happy to be here. Thanks
Speaker 2: for having me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, we were just talking about it. You're from Jersey,
Speaker 1: I'm from Queens. It's good sort of, you know, I
Speaker 1: moved up into the middle of nowhere. It's nice for
Speaker 1: a little bit just to talk with somebody who reminds
Speaker 1: me of home, you know what I mean.
Speaker 2: It's like a match made in heaven.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, we're getting along great even before we got on.
Speaker 1: So let's keep it going here. As we always do
Speaker 1: on our Thursday night show, We're going to each give
Speaker 1: our three best bets for this weekend's games. We'll give
Speaker 1: one bet to avoid, and then we'll list our favorite
Speaker 1: prop bet for the weekend. But JJ look, I usually
Speaker 1: like to ease our guests into this, okay, but we're
Speaker 1: on a pretty good run here with the picks after
Speaker 1: going three and oh for week two, follow that up
Speaker 1: last week with another three and oh week, getting right
Speaker 1: the Bills and Bengals under forty four, the Rams laying
Speaker 1: three to the Browns and the Saints getting four from
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. And our guest Adam Burke now two of
Speaker 1: his three picks, with the Lions getting six and a
Speaker 1: half from the Eagles and the Rams and the Browns
Speaker 1: coming in under forty seven and a half. So are
Speaker 1: you ready to bring the thunder here or what?
Speaker 2: So much pressure? But look, pressure makes diamonds, right, I'm.
Speaker 1: Prepared absolutely hopefully you'll be the diamond in the rough. So,
Speaker 1: as always, we're gonna get started here with pick six,
Speaker 1: where both JJ and I are going to give three
Speaker 1: of our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the
Speaker 1: spread or on the over under. Now, as always, I
Speaker 1: will note at the outset that, as I said, we
Speaker 1: are recording this during the Thursday night game between the
Speaker 1: Packers and the Eagles, so we won't be making any
Speaker 1: picks on that game. But if you want to see
Speaker 1: how I pick that game. You can go to bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com. That's going to show you how I and
Speaker 1: every betting expert who makes picks on the site made
Speaker 1: their picks for every game on the slate. We'll also
Speaker 1: be using the betting pros dot com consensus odds and
Speaker 1: making our picks. Those are the aggregate odds that you're
Speaker 1: going to find available in the market. All right, JJ,
Speaker 1: start us off. What's your first pick here?
Speaker 2: I myself not gonna be the most popular one. I
Speaker 2: can only assume, but I'm actually big here on the
Speaker 2: Oakland Raiders getting seven against the Indianapolis Colts. Just trying
Speaker 2: to confirm a consensus at this moment, and yeah, I'm
Speaker 2: seeing more or less some seven, some six and a half.
Speaker 2: I do believe you'll be able to get seven if
Speaker 2: you wait long enough at your your current book. It
Speaker 2: is worth noting as well. And for the guys that
Speaker 2: already know, you know kind of my stick. For me,
Speaker 2: the number is so important when you're betting NFL in
Speaker 2: particlo I mean any sport for that matter, but the
Speaker 2: number is important. Having a good idea of the market
Speaker 2: in which way the market's going to swing A line
Speaker 2: in one direction or the other right now that everybody's
Speaker 2: kind of drinking the Colts kool aid, especially after if
Speaker 2: you remember, before the season started with no Andrew luck,
Speaker 2: everybody was kind of against this team. Now it's almost
Speaker 2: like the market it has taken too big of a
Speaker 2: shift in favor of the Colts here. Last week they
Speaker 2: were playing the Falcons, where the Falcons were an extremely
Speaker 2: popular play, at least as far as the market goes.
Speaker 2: Obviously the Colts handle business. You might look at the
Speaker 2: final score and see they only one by three, but
Speaker 2: if you watch the game, you knew the Colts more
Speaker 2: or less handled business throughout. They also have a road
Speaker 2: win at the Titans in a primetime spot. For me,
Speaker 2: this is becoming a situation where this line is too big. Now.
Speaker 2: I get it, Ook was not an easy team to back,
Speaker 2: right that just got Mali wopped by Minnesota, and obviously
Speaker 2: they lost to the Chiefs after an interesting Week one,
Speaker 2: but I just feel like we now have too much
Speaker 2: of a market overreaction here in favor of the Colts.
Speaker 2: It's a huge number here. There's a lot of factors
Speaker 2: I could break down in this game specifically, but for me,
Speaker 2: it's really about the number here. If this one was
Speaker 2: four and a half or five, I'd be staying away.
Speaker 2: But at seven, I love this play. It's one of
Speaker 2: my favorites of the week. Give me the Raiders plus
Speaker 2: all seven points versus the Colts.
Speaker 1: Yeah, right now, the consensus odds have been bouncing back
Speaker 1: and forth a little bit between six and a half
Speaker 1: and seven. Right now they're at six and a half.
Speaker 1: But I'll be honest, I like them even at that
Speaker 1: number as well. The Sharps, by the way, at the
Speaker 1: breakdown of the money coming in the public is pretty
Speaker 1: heavily on Indianapolis, but the amount of money that's actually
Speaker 1: being met is overwhelmingly about three quarters seventy five percent
Speaker 1: in favor of Oakland given the spread. And I agree
Speaker 1: with you, and really, if for no other reason, then
Speaker 1: you've got some major injuries here on the cult side, right,
Speaker 1: I mean t Y Hilton. I don't think his practice
Speaker 1: yet this week. He reinjured his squad last week. That
Speaker 1: could be a big deal. And Darius Leonard is probably
Speaker 1: not going to be able to suit up either. And
Speaker 1: you know you pointed out the exact right issue is
Speaker 1: that backing Oakland just feels kind of dirty for lack
Speaker 1: of a better way to say it, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: they don't inspire a whole lot of confidence, and they do,
Speaker 1: to be fair, have some injuries to their linebacking court too.
Speaker 1: But I agree with you at this point, the line
Speaker 1: is a little big, and you're right, the public perception
Speaker 1: has kind of gone all the way in the other
Speaker 1: way toward towards the cults here. So on our consensus,
Speaker 1: it's actually sixty eight percent of experts are backing Indy.
Speaker 1: But I'm with you here. I like the Raiders here
Speaker 1: for basically most of the reasons you described, and really
Speaker 1: the injuries that are going on with Indianapolis.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the injuries are definitely going to be a headache.
Speaker 2: And I have to assume Hilton's gonna play. I know that.
Speaker 2: You know, obviously Friday's a big day for injury information.
Speaker 2: I would assume Hilton will play. But regardless, like I said,
Speaker 2: for me, it's a number play. This number is four
Speaker 2: and a half. It's a stay away spot, six and
Speaker 2: a half, seven, it's a rock solid slam Oakland spot.
Speaker 1: You know, the only reason why I'm not sure if
Speaker 1: Hilton's gonna play anyway is they've got case next week.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's a game where you're gonna need them
Speaker 1: out there.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: If you're Indy, you're probably thinking that you can get
Speaker 1: out of here with a win even without Hilton. But
Speaker 1: you know, for all the factors you said, I agree.
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit surprised at the breakdown of the consensus.
Speaker 1: I thought more people would be back in Oakland. But
Speaker 1: in the end, I've got you. If it's six and
Speaker 1: a half, if it's seven, I agree with you there.
Speaker 1: For my first pick, I'm not sure how you're gonna
Speaker 1: feel about this one, my friend, but I'm going with
Speaker 1: Patriots laying seven to the Bills.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I talked about this on Monday with Rich Ryan when
Speaker 1: we gave our initial reaction to the lines, and I
Speaker 1: just have this feeling that the Patriots are gonna absolutely
Speaker 1: blow the Bills out of the way. Now, there are
Speaker 1: some questions on the Patriots heading into this game, but honestly,
Speaker 1: I think it's just that the Bills are really overrated.
Speaker 1: I mean, let's talk about them for a second, because
Speaker 1: they've been involved in one of my picks for each
Speaker 1: of the last two weeks. I took them going up
Speaker 1: against the Giants and then I bet against them laying
Speaker 1: four to the Bengals last week, but they've played three games.
Speaker 1: They should have lost to the Jets, and would have
Speaker 1: in Week one had CJ. Moseley not been injured in
Speaker 1: the second half. They beat up on a porous Eli
Speaker 1: Manning led Giants team in Week two, and then they
Speaker 1: barely squeaked by what is an adequate but generally unimpressive
Speaker 1: Bengals team at home. Now, the defense is legitimate, I'm
Speaker 1: going to agree they there. They were very, very good.
Speaker 1: Last year. They allowed just four point nine yards per play,
Speaker 1: that was third best in the league. They're giving up
Speaker 1: almost the exact same number this year four point eight
Speaker 1: yards per play. At Oliver and Tremaine Edmonds are playing
Speaker 1: great for Deavius White continues to play well in coverage.
Speaker 1: They did lose Harrison Phillips. It's going to hurt a
Speaker 1: tiny bit, but I don't really think it's enough to
Speaker 1: make a difference. The defense is really strong, but regardless,
Speaker 1: it is not good enough to stop the Patriots offense.
Speaker 1: It's just not Almost no defense is. And I say
Speaker 1: that with the full understanding that the Patriots may not
Speaker 1: have Julian Edelman for this game, and James Devlin is out,
Speaker 1: and that actually really affects their running game. It is
Speaker 1: all irrelevant to me. The coaching staff is too good.
Speaker 1: They'll find ways to use James White and Rex Burkhead
Speaker 1: and Philip Rssett will get involved. Brady hasn't exactly lit
Speaker 1: the Bills up in his history against Sean McDermot and
Speaker 1: Leslie Fraser's defense, but in the last two years, the
Speaker 1: Patriots have outscored the Bills in Buffalo forty eight to nine.
Speaker 1: And going the opposite way, I do not see the
Speaker 1: Bills being able to put up all that many points
Speaker 1: against the Patriots defense. I mean, regardless of the quality
Speaker 1: of the opponent. That defense is elite. Gilmour is playing
Speaker 1: like one of the best corners in the league. Jamie
Speaker 1: Collins is wreaking havoc all over the field. They've got depth,
Speaker 1: they've got speed. They've got six interceptions already in three games,
Speaker 1: and now they face a guy who has more than
Speaker 1: an interception per game in his career. They have not
Speaker 1: allowed a point in the first half of their last
Speaker 1: five games, dating back to their playoff game against the
Speaker 1: Chiefs and the Super Bowl against the Rams. The weather
Speaker 1: is going to be fine. That can always be something
Speaker 1: that happens in Buffalo, but it's early, it's going to
Speaker 1: be in the sixties and sunny. I think this is
Speaker 1: a statement game for the Pats. I think they're coming
Speaker 1: in here. They've got another three to zero team who
Speaker 1: really isn't that good. I think they want to make
Speaker 1: a statement. This is their AFC East. They're not gonna
Speaker 1: let it be wrestled away. So I think they're going
Speaker 1: to go up there, and I think they're gonna win
Speaker 1: this game handly. So I will take the Patriots, even
Speaker 1: at that key number. It's a high number, laying seven,
Speaker 1: I'll take the Patriots. And I really don't have too
Speaker 1: many second thoughts about it.
Speaker 2: I really legitimately like the call, but only to a
Speaker 2: certain extent. And here's the logic that I kind of see.
Speaker 2: You bring up a ton of good points. This is
Speaker 2: really the Patriots division. Year in year out. The Bills
Speaker 2: could be somewhat of fluff, especially based on who they played,
Speaker 2: you know, the Jets, Giants, Bangles. But if you take
Speaker 2: a step back and realize who the Patriots have played,
Speaker 2: and if you make the argument for all, well, there's
Speaker 2: enough parody in the league where you're really good teams
Speaker 2: can always beat up on the bad teams. I mean
Speaker 2: the Steelers, Dolphins, and Jets. Koby, the Steelers are not
Speaker 2: what we thought they were going to be, and obviously
Speaker 2: there's no Roethlisberger, and then the Dolphins and the Jets
Speaker 2: are two teams in the NFL. I don't mind the
Speaker 2: idea that, oh, well, the Buffalo Bills haven't played anyboddy
Speaker 2: and now they're really getting their first test. But for me,
Speaker 2: it's it's a tough spot for me because I truly
Speaker 2: don't know how good the Buffalo Bills are or aren't.
Speaker 2: I think the assumptions could be made that they're not
Speaker 2: that good. But remember this was a team that was
Speaker 2: getting a lot of hype preseason about their improvements on
Speaker 2: defense and interesting to see how they play here now.
Speaker 2: I feel like this would have this would have been
Speaker 2: to the Buffalo's advantage if this game's played a little
Speaker 2: later in the year, where it's a little colder, maybe
Speaker 2: some snow, maybe you could really lean on the home crowd,
Speaker 2: the Bill's mafia. By the way, how is it not
Speaker 2: on everybody's bucket list to go through a table outside
Speaker 2: Buffalo Stadium? Pregame. But look, ultimately I do like the call.
Speaker 2: For me, it was a more or less a stay
Speaker 2: away spot at seven hoping to get I'd hope to
Speaker 2: get six and a half on one side or seven
Speaker 2: and a half on the other if I was going
Speaker 2: to bet it. But again, I can't question anybody who
Speaker 2: backs New England against Buffalo, that's for sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And to be clear, I don't think this is
Speaker 1: one where everybody's going to be backing this pick. Whatsoe?
Speaker 1: I mean, I think people like the Bills and they
Speaker 1: do have a legitimate defense. I want to make that clear.
Speaker 1: I'm not insulting those fans. I went to school in Buffalo.
Speaker 1: I agree going to tailgating there is crazy and it's
Speaker 1: a crazy spot. The crowd's going to be raucous. But
Speaker 1: without that weather, it's not quite as bad as it
Speaker 1: would be. And regardless, it's just not enough to stop
Speaker 1: the Patriots at this point. Honestly, I would feel better
Speaker 1: about the Bills had they lost a game at some
Speaker 1: point coming in. I think when you have the AFC
Speaker 1: East Showdown both three and zero, I think, realistically the
Speaker 1: Pats are just going to go in there, and I
Speaker 1: think they're going to want to make a statement. The
Speaker 1: injuries are slightly concerning. If Henlelman misses the game, eventually,
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to have somebody to throw the ball
Speaker 1: to because Josh Gordon is also battling injury. At least
Speaker 1: last week against the Jets, he was on and off
Speaker 1: the field, so it's a little worrisome he is practicing
Speaker 1: on a limited basis. But regardless, this just feels to
Speaker 1: me like this is going to be the statement game
Speaker 1: for the Pats. So I'm willing to lay the big number.
Speaker 1: I agree seven is a lot, but I'm willing to
Speaker 1: lay it.
Speaker 2: I like the call real quick. The receivers injuries, I
Speaker 2: wouldn't real work too much about that, Dan. I mean,
Speaker 2: you know, you know, they could just slop me and
Speaker 2: you in there and we could easily have pick up
Speaker 2: five six camels.
Speaker 1: Maybe not us, but like two reasonably athletic human beings.
Speaker 1: It's probably correct. But yeah, no, I agree. I mean again,
Speaker 1: if Edelman misses the game, I'm still taking the Pats
Speaker 1: at this number. It'll be all James White and Rex
Speaker 1: Burkhead and some receiver who I've never heard of before.
Speaker 1: So I'm really not concerned about it. Again, a lot
Speaker 1: of it is the mindset, and I'm a Jets fan.
Speaker 1: I have watched the Patriots closely over the last twenty
Speaker 1: years or so, and realistically, this just strikes me as
Speaker 1: them being like, oh, really, you're three and zero, You're
Speaker 1: coming here. You're saying you want to take this division,
Speaker 1: you will take it from my cold dead hands. So
Speaker 1: that's just how I see this game unfolding. And again,
Speaker 1: it's not an overly popular pick. I think the money,
Speaker 1: if anything, trends towards the Bills here. I think the
Speaker 1: consensus picks are relatively even, maybe even a little shaded
Speaker 1: towards the Bills last time I checked. But in the end,
Speaker 1: I'm really comfortable with this game. So I'm gonna do it,
Speaker 1: and I'm not gonna have too many worries about it personally.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to here. Second pick, what do you
Speaker 1: got for me?
Speaker 2: Denver Broncos minus three versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. I do
Speaker 2: believe you could get two and a half, or at
Speaker 2: least you could have gotten two and a half. I
Speaker 2: think now I'm starting to starting to see three and
Speaker 2: a half definitely, like really like three in this spot.
Speaker 2: Here's the logic. I know that the Broncos are ower
Speaker 2: and three, and I know they just lost a really
Speaker 2: bad game to the Packers. You know, it's not bad
Speaker 2: that you lost to the Packers, but obviously they didn't cover,
Speaker 2: they didn't play well. They're also one and two against
Speaker 2: the spread, with their loan win being a game against Chicago,
Speaker 2: where pending when you bet it, they actually could have
Speaker 2: been zero and three against the spread. The reason I
Speaker 2: like the spot here is really in the trenches. You
Speaker 2: take a look at Denver's defensive line and what they
Speaker 2: can bring to the table from the linebacker perspective as well,
Speaker 2: and that Jacksonville offensive line. It's just one of the
Speaker 2: worst and offensive lines in the NFL haven't had really
Speaker 2: that many opportunities to be exposed all that much. Yet.
Speaker 2: You know, Titans, Texans chiefs. Obviously Texans can bring a
Speaker 2: good pass rush, but more or less they kind of
Speaker 2: held Jacksonville in check for the most part. There. Thinking here, though,
Speaker 2: is you get the young quarterback Garner Minshew has to
Speaker 2: travel to Denver. This will be what I believe to
Speaker 2: be his first true road game as a starter. I mean,
Speaker 2: I know that he kind of sloted in in Houston,
Speaker 2: I believe. But ultimately this is gonna be a tough
Speaker 2: place to play for him. And again, a lot of
Speaker 2: pressure is going to be assumed to come up the
Speaker 2: middle for him. He's gonna have to do a lot
Speaker 2: of scrambling, make a lot of uncomfortable throws. I know
Speaker 2: that it's tough to back Denver and Joe Flacco and
Speaker 2: how that offense has been producing. But again, you know,
Speaker 2: how do you beat Jacksonville, right? You beat them with
Speaker 2: the run game. Denver's got a very good run game
Speaker 2: with Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. I would expect them
Speaker 2: to lean heavy on that. A lot of screens play action,
Speaker 2: and again, you know, the whole Jayalin Ramsey situation is
Speaker 2: still weird. For me. This is a big slam spot
Speaker 2: for the Broncos. Again. I know they're zero to three.
Speaker 2: I know everybody's drinking the Gardner Minshew kool aid, But
Speaker 2: for me, the numbers a little too small here. Jacksonville's
Speaker 2: getting a little too much respect. I know they get
Speaker 2: the extra A few days after Thursday Night Football, everybody
Speaker 2: watched them win primetime against the Titans, and everybody just
Speaker 2: watched Denver lose in a bad one against the Packers. Again,
Speaker 2: this is a week to week league. Really like Demver
Speaker 2: in this spot.
Speaker 1: Do you like the amount of curiosity if the number
Speaker 1: sits at three and a half instead of three?
Speaker 2: I do not like them at three and a half.
Speaker 2: For me, the value, the value is really at three.
Speaker 2: I don't want to I don't I wouldn't want if
Speaker 2: you guys see three and a half, I wouldn't want
Speaker 2: you to play the hook there. But again it's like
Speaker 2: I always say, you need to be leveraging multiple books.
Speaker 2: If you're going to find yourself success in this space
Speaker 2: and in this industry, you need to be leveraging multiple
Speaker 2: sports books. Because again it's crazy as it might sound.
Speaker 2: You know, if you're leveraging four or five sports books,
Speaker 2: and I know it's kind of hard to keep that
Speaker 2: much money tied up in different areas, But if you're
Speaker 2: leveraging that many sports books, you're going to notice differences
Speaker 2: in lines. Whether it's fifteen twenty cents here, fifteen twenty
Speaker 2: cents there, half a point here, half a point there.
Speaker 2: Might not matter in a one week sample, but multiply
Speaker 2: that by fifty two weeks, by three four years. You're talking,
Speaker 2: you know, you're talking easily an additional thirty forty bets
Speaker 2: over the course of a season, maybe even more, that
Speaker 2: are in your favor one hundred percent.
Speaker 1: I agree with that. And one of the things on
Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com is we give the consensus odds, and
Speaker 1: so you want to see what is out there generally
Speaker 1: in the market. But it also lists the various odds
Speaker 1: that are available at different sports books. And if you
Speaker 1: look at the Jaguars and the Broncos, you'll see there
Speaker 1: are some sports books that are at three. There are
Speaker 1: some sports books that are at three and a half.
Speaker 1: So you really want to pick and choose your battles.
Speaker 1: As for me, I lean in your direction. It feels
Speaker 1: uncomfortable again to go with Denver. How do they not
Speaker 1: have a sack on the year? I do not understand.
Speaker 1: My guess is you pointed out the problems with the
Speaker 1: Jaguars line that they're gonna get a bunch. I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna be motivated this week. I'm a little I
Speaker 1: get a little worried about the Mini bi you know,
Speaker 1: the playing off of Thursday. Teams like that. I feel
Speaker 1: like generally come out strong, but They're probably coming off
Speaker 1: a little bit of a high, and I think Denver really,
Speaker 1: I mean, if they're gonna do anything this season, which
Speaker 1: they're obviously not, but if they're going to at all
Speaker 1: make a statement for this season, it's gonna be here
Speaker 1: at home against a very mediocre team, against you know,
Speaker 1: a kid making his third professional start. So I lean
Speaker 1: towards your way. I don't know if I would have
Speaker 1: enough to take it at laying three, but I definitely
Speaker 1: lean your way. I do think that the defense is
Speaker 1: going to come out and try to make a statement here.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to my second pick, and that is
Speaker 1: going to be the under on the Panthers Texans, and
Speaker 1: that is at forty seven and a half. Look, Kyle
Speaker 1: Allen looked great last week, and frankly, had he been
Speaker 1: the quarterback for the Panthers since the start of the season,
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that they're three and zero right now.
Speaker 1: But that is much more because of how bad Cam
Speaker 1: Newton was. I think everyone's going just a little bit
Speaker 1: crazy about evaluating Allen off a game against a truly
Speaker 1: terrible defense in the Cardinals. I know he looked good
Speaker 1: when he filled in at the very end of last year,
Speaker 1: but you really can't draw too many conclusions from that.
Speaker 1: With a full game of tape and obviously a much
Speaker 1: stronger defense here with the Texans, I think Alan is
Speaker 1: going to have a much tougher time moving the Panthers
Speaker 1: towards scoring points. Now. The Texans are solid against the run.
Speaker 1: They're not spectacular, but they're solid enough. They're same against
Speaker 1: the pass despite the fact that they've had a tough
Speaker 1: matchup with Drew Brees. You mentioned the fact that they
Speaker 1: can get to the quarterback, and playing in Arizona like
Speaker 1: Allen did last week, it's not even like a really
Speaker 1: road game. I mean, they never play well at home.
Speaker 1: The fans aren't crazy right now, but playing in Houston
Speaker 1: certainly is a road game, so I expect the Panthers
Speaker 1: offense to largely be held in check. On the flip side,
Speaker 1: their defense overall remains very strong. They're allowing just four
Speaker 1: point three yards per play, and they're particularly good against
Speaker 1: the pass. And the fact that they're so good against
Speaker 1: the paths is really what leads me towards the under here.
Speaker 1: They put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks at
Speaker 1: least thirty percent of the time in each of their
Speaker 1: first three games so far. James Bradbury is playing extremely
Speaker 1: well right now, so is Dante Jackson, and they're generally
Speaker 1: holding a pass offenses in check. Their real weak spot
Speaker 1: is against the run, and that's gotten a little better
Speaker 1: in recent weeks, although some of that is the opponent,
Speaker 1: but regardless, that is just not where the Texans butter
Speaker 1: their bread. They don't involve Duke Johnson much. Carlos Hide
Speaker 1: has been fine, but he is not going to run
Speaker 1: down the Panthers throat. It's not the place that the
Speaker 1: Texans can really exploit another team in the end. This
Speaker 1: strikes me as a kind of tight defensive game where
Speaker 1: neither team piles up the point. So I'm happily going
Speaker 1: to take the under here at forty seven and a half,
Speaker 1: like like the call.
Speaker 2: Now for one thing that I will tell you with
Speaker 2: Houston specifically and Deshaun Watson. First of all, I don't
Speaker 2: think there's anybody in the NFL that takes more sacks
Speaker 2: than him, and I don't think it's and I don't
Speaker 2: think it's an issue with that offensive line. He just sits.
Speaker 2: He just holds onto the ball too.
Speaker 1: Long, forever, forever. He's gonna get He's gonna get rid
Speaker 1: one of these times. He's going to get hit this year,
Speaker 1: I bet, and he's going to be out for at least,
Speaker 1: you know, most of the game. He just he holds
Speaker 1: up ball forever.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he's a big dude. I mean, you know,
Speaker 2: it's hard to kind of tell that he is, you know,
Speaker 2: on the screen when you look at him next to
Speaker 2: offensive lineman. But he's a big dude. He's in great shape.
Speaker 2: But you're right, I mean, he's not Michael Vick. You know,
Speaker 2: he's not Michael Vick, but he's not Cam Newton. He's
Speaker 2: somewhere in between as far as size goes. Sure, but
Speaker 2: he's definitely a big boy, so he could take his
Speaker 2: fair share of hits. But he you know, he's definitely
Speaker 2: holds on it way too long and could find himself
Speaker 2: getting blindsided one of these days, and yeah, be in
Speaker 2: a lot of trouble. But ultimately, for me, as long
Speaker 2: as Carolina can keep this slow scoring for themselves. And
Speaker 2: I say that because Houston just always appears to be
Speaker 2: one of those teams week in and week out that
Speaker 2: kind of like if they go down big, you almost
Speaker 2: kind of know they're gonna come back, you know, just
Speaker 2: based on how Watson, you know, almost like turns Madden
Speaker 2: on as starts running around back there and finding Hopkins
Speaker 2: fine and fuller. So you would hope that you can
Speaker 2: kind of keep this low scoring in the in the
Speaker 2: low twenties towards the end of it, maybe in the
Speaker 2: low teens, you know, for the first half, because again,
Speaker 2: you know, I feel like if Carolina starts getting going,
Speaker 2: obviously Houston's gonna get that same mojo. But ultimately it
Speaker 2: does make a lot of sense. It's gonna be a
Speaker 2: tough test for Kyle Allen going up against that Houston
Speaker 2: defensive front, so you think they'd be able to keep
Speaker 2: him in check. And again Carolina's defense is no such either.
Speaker 2: Would expect plenty of sacks on their end, maybe evenna
Speaker 2: turn over to really like this spot under as well.
Speaker 1: I mean, if if Kyle Allen is what he looked
Speaker 1: like last week, this is just gonna fly over. I
Speaker 1: mean there's no doubt because you said it exactly right.
Speaker 1: Houston can look terrible in a game, Watson can look
Speaker 1: totally lo and then as you aptly put it, he
Speaker 1: goes Matten without question. I mean, he can just do
Speaker 1: that and put up twenty one points in the span
Speaker 1: of eight minutes without blinking an eye. But I don't
Speaker 1: think that's how this game is gonna play out. I
Speaker 1: could be wrong on Alan, and if I am, then
Speaker 1: he's going to be able to just light it up.
Speaker 1: But I don't see that happening in this game against
Speaker 1: a much stronger defense than he played last week. I
Speaker 1: think in the end, it's going to be tight for
Speaker 1: most of the game, So Watson's not going to do
Speaker 1: the thing where he's going to go Superman. They're going
Speaker 1: to do what they can, but again, I don't expect
Speaker 1: them to be able to do that much on the
Speaker 1: passing side of the ball. I think they're going to
Speaker 1: have to use the run game that's gonna eat up
Speaker 1: some clock which helps the under So for me, I
Speaker 1: feel pretty good about it. But you know, I if
Speaker 1: Kyle Allen does this again, then I'm going to have
Speaker 1: to completely reevaluate the way I feel generally about the Panthers.
Speaker 1: But for now, I'm willing to write off last week
Speaker 1: for the most part as playing a game against a really,
Speaker 1: really bad Arizona defense. Let's move on to your third
Speaker 1: pick here, what he.
Speaker 2: Got the Detroit Lions getting six and a half bones
Speaker 2: versus the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, this is a game,
Speaker 2: a number play. You know, most of the guys know
Speaker 2: that they follow me already that I'm all about targeting
Speaker 2: certain numbers. Now you may see this line opened at
Speaker 2: four and a half. There was actually plenty of spots
Speaker 2: this opened at three and a half. The fact that
Speaker 2: I can get six and a half here with a team,
Speaker 2: first of all, that's been competitive in every game they've played. Now,
Speaker 2: if you make the argument that okay, well the Cardinals
Speaker 2: aren't really that good, fine, but they were winning against
Speaker 2: the Cardinals pretty big. They went into a prevent defense
Speaker 2: and allowed Arizona to come back. They handled the Chargers,
Speaker 2: They most certainly handled the Eagles. That three point score
Speaker 2: does not nearly show how dominant Detroit was throughout. This
Speaker 2: is just a team that's doing enough to hang around. Now,
Speaker 2: Slay I know, is a little banged up and he's
Speaker 2: a big, a big time player for them on the
Speaker 2: defensive side at the corner position, so hopefully he can play.
Speaker 2: But either way, this is a gigantic number for Detroit. Now,
Speaker 2: I know Kansas City is a very public public betting
Speaker 2: team as they should be that cover a lot of spreads.
Speaker 2: Mahomes is very fun to watch. It's a very quote
Speaker 2: unquote sexy quarterback with all the big throws and all
Speaker 2: the flashy plays. But again, if there's a team that
Speaker 2: can really slow him down at least somewhat defensively, you
Speaker 2: would think not only could Detroit do it, but you
Speaker 2: would also think that Stafford and Gala Day and carry on.
Speaker 2: Johnson could keep up pace with this team if this
Speaker 2: had to get into the high twenties. Really like the spot.
Speaker 2: I think this is a big number and Detroit actually
Speaker 2: has an opportunity here to surprise folks and maybe pull
Speaker 2: the upset.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to disagree with anything you said, and
Speaker 1: Detroit has been one of the surprise teams for me.
Speaker 1: They are much much better than I expected them. Here's
Speaker 1: my issue with this when I look at them, Okay,
Speaker 1: not Detroit, really Kansas City. I forget if it was
Speaker 1: Rufus Peabody or if it was Rich Ryan. When I
Speaker 1: was talking on Monday, who used the term modelbusters, which
Speaker 1: is just you can look at a game and you
Speaker 1: can analyze it and you could say this is what
Speaker 1: should happen. And that is how I feel exactly the
Speaker 1: reasons that you said. Assuming that Sleigh is there, which
Speaker 1: I know wouldn't move the line much, but here it
Speaker 1: would be pretty significant. When I look at the line,
Speaker 1: that line's too high on what I've seen out of Detroit,
Speaker 1: and based on the fact that Detroit's going to be home,
Speaker 1: they easily could be three and h and yet I
Speaker 1: would have such a tough time going up against Mahomes
Speaker 1: because I feel like what he's able to do sometimes
Speaker 1: just defies what you can do when you just rationally
Speaker 1: look at a game. Does that make sense what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if it's.
Speaker 2: Over the ye oh yeah, one hundred percent. I mean,
Speaker 2: you know, you see this in a bunch of other
Speaker 2: sports as well. NFL it hasn't been as common over
Speaker 2: the last few years. I mean, the NFL is more
Speaker 2: or less a true number spot where you got to
Speaker 2: bet certain numbers and you've got to stay away from
Speaker 2: certain numbers as it relates to the market and the
Speaker 2: betting place. But there are some guys from year to
Speaker 2: year that make a difference. I mean, I remember Cam Newton.
Speaker 2: You know Cam Newton in college you know, reminds me
Speaker 2: of a lot. I mean, you know, Auburn really wasn't
Speaker 2: meant to even be that good that year that he played.
Speaker 2: At least he's he's at least what means the most
Speaker 2: to me in reference to what Mahomes has been doing
Speaker 2: at the NFL level, because you're right. I mean, you know,
Speaker 2: you put the numbers in front of you, you put
Speaker 2: projections in front of you, and and numbers make sense
Speaker 2: to back almost it almost numbers make sense to almost
Speaker 2: fade Kansas City every week. But week in and week out,
Speaker 2: Mahomes overperforms models. And even if you adjust the models,
Speaker 2: I mean, you can't adjust models where you're projecting Mahomes
Speaker 2: to throw for three to fifty every week. So you know,
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, you're completely right. There
Speaker 2: are certain players that can be model busters, and Mahomes
Speaker 2: has certainly been this way early on his career, whether
Speaker 2: it's Andy Reid and him being a perfect potion together,
Speaker 2: or you know, just his talent when overlooked by many.
Speaker 2: But regardless, he is quite a stud. But I just
Speaker 2: really like the like the number here. This wasn't that
Speaker 2: I know that teams that Kansasity have been playing have
Speaker 2: been getting loved the last few weeks. And I know
Speaker 2: Baltimore backdoor covers last week. Well, unless you got it
Speaker 2: really late, you would have covered with Kansas City then
Speaker 2: at four and a half or four. But again for me,
Speaker 2: strong number here with Detroit at home, who's looked very competitive.
Speaker 2: Kansas City may have too much speed, but ultimately time
Speaker 2: will tell, and I do believe Detroit can keep pace.
Speaker 2: They've looked really good offensively as well as defensively thus far.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they really Again, as I've said, they really surprised me.
Speaker 1: They've been very impressive pretty much across the board. And
Speaker 1: I'm glad you pick this one because I was definitely
Speaker 1: considering picking it, but it hurts a little bit to
Speaker 1: have to make that actual strong statement against my home,
Speaker 1: So I'm glad you pick it. I don't disagree with
Speaker 1: any of the reasoning. I certainly lean towards the Lions.
Speaker 1: I don't know whether or not eventually when I make
Speaker 1: my final selections this week, when I place all my bets,
Speaker 1: whether or not I'm going to actually wind up pulling
Speaker 1: the trigger. But if I do, I'm sure it's going
Speaker 1: to be on the Lions. Let's go to my third
Speaker 1: pick here, which is something that also I don't feel
Speaker 1: comfortable with, but when I've looked at it, I just
Speaker 1: I can't really get away from it. And it's the
Speaker 1: Cardinals getting six at home against the Seahawks. Now, this
Speaker 1: line has moved, and it's moved pretty hard. I think
Speaker 1: the look aheadline may have been Arizona getting three and
Speaker 1: a half perhaps, so it's jumped pretty significantly in favor
Speaker 1: of Seattle. And the number of bets here is roughly
Speaker 1: seventy five percent in favor of the Seahawks, but the
Speaker 1: total amount bet is close to fifty to fifty would
Speaker 1: suggest that there's probably more sharpbetters in on the Cardinals,
Speaker 1: and I think there's an obvious reason why, and that
Speaker 1: obvious reason is that the Seahawks just are not very good.
Speaker 1: I explained it a lot last week when I took
Speaker 1: the Saints getting four points against Seattle. But they barely
Speaker 1: squeaked by the Bengals at home in Week one, and
Speaker 1: barely squeaked by a Pittsburgh team that had to put
Speaker 1: in Mason Rudolph mid game, and despite the final score
Speaker 1: last week, they lost pretty handily to the Saints in
Speaker 1: their home building. Led by Teddy Bridgewater and again I
Speaker 1: talked about it last in the week. The strength of
Speaker 1: their defensive unit is their linebackers, right, so they just
Speaker 1: pretty much leave their base package out there all day long,
Speaker 1: which means if you can throw on them, and pretty
Speaker 1: much everyone can throw on them, then they're vulnerable. Kyler
Speaker 1: Murray liked Deshaun Watson. Then we said he holds the
Speaker 1: ball way too long, and that's devastating when you have
Speaker 1: a terrible offensive line and the run game it's pretty
Speaker 1: much non existent.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: They don't run the ball well, and they don't attempt
Speaker 1: to run it enough. They're twenty six in the league
Speaker 1: in both of those categories. But the way Seattle schemes
Speaker 1: on defense and the struggles that they have against the pass,
Speaker 1: I think the Cardinals are going to be able to
Speaker 1: move the ball fairly well. Now you take the flip
Speaker 1: side here, the Cardinals defense is terrible, okay, particularly given
Speaker 1: their missing pieces at cornerback. But I look at this
Speaker 1: game as being one where the Seahawks really want to
Speaker 1: get their run game going against the third worst rush
Speaker 1: defense in the league. They want to get Chris Carson
Speaker 1: back on track. Rareshad Penny May come back. They want
Speaker 1: to run the ball generally as much as any team
Speaker 1: in the league. So if Russell Wilson wanted to, or
Speaker 1: if he had an offensive coordinator who wanted him to,
Speaker 1: he could go nuts against this pass defense, kind of
Speaker 1: like he did at the end of last game. But
Speaker 1: he doesn't have an offensive coordinator who wants to do that,
Speaker 1: So I don't expect their repeat of last week. I
Speaker 1: expect more of a repeat of the game against the
Speaker 1: Bengals in Week one, where the Seahawks won by a point,
Speaker 1: a slow, kind of grinded out, methodical win where the
Speaker 1: Seahawks can do what they do best at four points
Speaker 1: when I saw when I first looked ahead, I was
Speaker 1: uncomfortable with that line. But at six, it's just something
Speaker 1: where I don't think I can get away from it
Speaker 1: because I think that number is just too.
Speaker 2: High, such a good number. I'm only seeing six on
Speaker 2: a few spots, So it's really it's really a great
Speaker 2: find find by you there. Yeah, I mean, I don't
Speaker 2: know how you could lay. I don't know how you
Speaker 2: could lay more than more than four or five with
Speaker 2: Seattle right now, uh on the road against against most teams. UH.
Speaker 2: So for me, it's and I get it. Arizona's kind
Speaker 2: of looked pretty crappy, you know, whether it was offensively
Speaker 2: or defensively, I don't. Offensively, they've kind of looked together
Speaker 2: per se, but uh, you know, they're also you know,
Speaker 2: they're playing at a pace that's that's kind of frantic
Speaker 2: at least as far as NFL standard goes. And they
Speaker 2: run a ton of four wide receiver sets, so it
Speaker 2: is kind of actually fun to watch them play. But again,
Speaker 2: you got to figure, you know that Seattle defense obviously
Speaker 2: is not near what it used to be. You know,
Speaker 2: the only the only question I would have obviously is
Speaker 2: if if this became a shootout, ken Arizona keep up,
Speaker 2: because that's kind of been their their issue, you know,
Speaker 2: at least most recently where Carolina kind of they were
Speaker 2: kind of close throughout and then Carolina just hit kept
Speaker 2: hitting the gas and then Arizona didn't. You know, you
Speaker 2: kind of know what you're gonna get out of Arizona's defense.
Speaker 2: But if they can certainly put a few touchdowns up
Speaker 2: on the board, they'll easily cover this number.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, my issue with this is that Murray
Speaker 1: looks great when games start, right he comes out, he's firing,
Speaker 1: he's super efficient, He's always like fifteen of sixteen. Because
Speaker 1: I think that Cliff Kingsbury has the first, you know,
Speaker 1: few drives scripted and then the game keeps going and
Speaker 1: they kind of run out of scripted plays and they
Speaker 1: just need to make it up. And when you have that,
Speaker 1: that's when Murray starts looking a little bit like a
Speaker 1: deer in headlights. So if Seattle gets out to a
Speaker 1: big lead here, yeah, this bet is certainly in trouble,
Speaker 1: I really think, And just reading the tea leaves, he
Speaker 1: listened to the way Pete Carroll's talking. Again. Last year,
Speaker 1: they ran the ball roughly fifty percent of the time.
Speaker 1: It was the most by far in the NFL. And
Speaker 1: if they that's what they want to be. They don't
Speaker 1: want to have Russell Wilson running around like a madman,
Speaker 1: chucking it down the field, potentially getting injured when he's
Speaker 1: taking off and running all the time. They want to
Speaker 1: be a run first team. I think they think they
Speaker 1: can win this game. I could see even worst case scenario,
Speaker 1: a backdoor cover at the very end, but I just
Speaker 1: don't see this as something where they're going to get
Speaker 1: way out ahead I think this is going to be
Speaker 1: one where it's going to be pretty close throughout. Seattle's
Speaker 1: not going to put their foot on the gas because
Speaker 1: that's not how they run their offense, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: they go crazy only when they're behind, and there you
Speaker 1: know Wilson is going into the Deshaun Watson superman mode.
Speaker 1: So in the end, I see it as more of
Speaker 1: a run heavy game. I think they need to get
Speaker 1: Chris Carson right. I think they need to go back
Speaker 1: to doing what they want to be doing. And so
Speaker 1: I see this as much more of a close game
Speaker 1: and a divisional one. Again, I think the Seahawks are
Speaker 1: going to come out on top. And to your point,
Speaker 1: I mean I'm looking around right now, and when I
Speaker 1: look at the odds available in the market, if you
Speaker 1: look at it on fad Duel, it's only five. I
Speaker 1: don't love it at that number. Six is much different
Speaker 1: to me than five, certainly than four that it was.
Speaker 1: But that's the point. Look around. If it's at five, no,
Speaker 1: I'm not nearly as comfortable with it. But at six,
Speaker 1: as it's available at a lot of places, I think
Speaker 1: I'm good with that. There like the spot, love the number, yep,
Speaker 1: all right, let's recap here. JJ. You like the Raiders
Speaker 1: plus six and a half or seven against the Colts.
Speaker 1: You like the Broncos laying three to the Jets and
Speaker 1: the Lions getting six and a half from the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: I'll take the Patriots laying seven to the Bills, the
Speaker 1: Panthers and the Texans to come under forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half, and the Cardinals at home getting six from
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. Before we move on, I do want to
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Speaker 1: one in hundred gambler, All right, j J, let's move
Speaker 1: on to it's a trap where we list the line
Speaker 1: that we are avoiding. Why don't you start us off?
Speaker 2: So one line in particular that I'd like to avoid
Speaker 2: is a total on Monday night football. I think it's
Speaker 2: you're gonna look at a you're gonna see a number
Speaker 2: of about forty three and a half. And I think
Speaker 2: that a lot of people are gonna are gonna more
Speaker 2: or less look at this game. It's gonna be on
Speaker 2: Monday night. They're probably going to bet it over. For me,
Speaker 2: this is a spot where you have more or less
Speaker 2: two defenses that have really been underperforming, specifically Pittsburgh. But again,
Speaker 2: you have two quarterbacks that are so in question, and
Speaker 2: I think a lot of people aren't even gonna are
Speaker 2: gonna completely look past the spot up until probably Monday afternoon,
Speaker 2: Monday evening, and the more or less end up convincing
Speaker 2: themselves to bet this game over because it's a small number,
Speaker 2: but you just have two quarterbacks and two offenses who
Speaker 2: have been completely unpredictable. And it's just not a spot
Speaker 2: I want to be anywhere near come Monday night. It's
Speaker 2: not a spot I want to bet the over. It's
Speaker 2: not a spot I want to bet the under. It's
Speaker 2: a tricky number with the two teams. With the two
Speaker 2: teams and specifically the two quarterbacks, you're getting Matt in
Speaker 2: this game, and again along with the spotty defensive play
Speaker 2: and spotty offensive play. So I'd be interested to see
Speaker 2: anybody that could convince me of why the over makes
Speaker 2: sense or why the under makes sense, because to me,
Speaker 2: neither does.
Speaker 1: I could not agree with you more. I do not
Speaker 1: know what to do with this game. I looked at
Speaker 1: this game just even generally, by the way, even with
Speaker 1: the spread, I have no feel for what this game
Speaker 1: is going to be. I don't have a good stand
Speaker 1: of what we're going to see from Mason Rudolph. He
Speaker 1: looked pretty dreadful against the forty nine ers last week.
Speaker 1: He came up with a couple of big plays. The
Speaker 1: Bengals are weird. Andy Dalton's throwing for a ton of yards,
Speaker 1: but especially in the divisional game. And it's primetime too,
Speaker 1: so you really don't know what Dalton is going to
Speaker 1: show up. It is a thing where I had zero
Speaker 1: sense for the total coming on here forty four. You know,
Speaker 1: it seems roughly right, and because of that, I don't
Speaker 1: really lean anyway at all. So I think that's actually
Speaker 1: a really good call, because it's something where I feel
Speaker 1: like you look at a bet, and you look at
Speaker 1: a number, and whether or not you use a model,
Speaker 1: or whether or not you project it in advance and
Speaker 1: then look at it, you get a feel for which
Speaker 1: way you're leaning, and if it's close to the number,
Speaker 1: that's fine for me. I would have no idea what
Speaker 1: to do here with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, so I love
Speaker 1: the call. I certainly would stay away from it, and
Speaker 1: I would certainly be all over that as well. For me,
Speaker 1: my bet to avoid is the Chargers laying fifteen and
Speaker 1: a half to the Dolphins. Now, we might be able
Speaker 1: to save some time on this segment in the future
Speaker 1: if we just insert the Dolphins and whoever they are
Speaker 1: playing into my pick here every week for the foreseeable future.
Speaker 1: The Dolphins are historically bad, historically bad, but they gave
Speaker 1: the Dallas a little scare in the first half. They
Speaker 1: could have been leading in that game, they didn't funnel
Speaker 1: it away. And every week when I look at the
Speaker 1: number in the Dolphins game, I see value in the
Speaker 1: Dolphins every single week. But again, Rufus Peabody and Rich Ryan,
Speaker 1: they talked about this concept of model busters, not a
Speaker 1: novel thing or anything, but how both the Dolphins and
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes with the Chiefs really fit that mold because
Speaker 1: whatever model you use is gonna tell you that you
Speaker 1: should probably take the points. And here you've got a
Speaker 1: West Coast team traveling east. They're a little banged up,
Speaker 1: they don't usually put up a million points, so I
Speaker 1: can certainly see value in the Dolphins, but I can't
Speaker 1: take this game. It's not like the last two weeks
Speaker 1: where it's twenty points or more than that, but it's
Speaker 1: a lot of points. I just can't in good conscience
Speaker 1: take the Dolphin, even though that's where I think I
Speaker 1: see the value. It's the type of game where I
Speaker 1: just need to avoid, and I think I maybe just
Speaker 1: need to avoid Dobins games. I don't know how you
Speaker 1: feel if you've been able to properly analyze these games,
Speaker 1: but at least with the Chargers lank fifteen and a
Speaker 1: half at a high number, I'm just not willing to
Speaker 1: go anywhere near this game.
Speaker 2: Couldn't agree more my issue with betting Miami, and again,
Speaker 2: when it comes to the numbers and model busting. You
Speaker 2: know you'll look every week and be like, Okay, well
Speaker 2: you gotta bet Miami plus the points. You know. The
Speaker 2: problem is is if you watch them play. There is
Speaker 2: just there's no sense of urgency and no sense to
Speaker 2: even want to be competitive. You know, a few of
Speaker 2: their games they've ended up getting not so much backdoored late.
Speaker 2: But I mean the Cowboys game they should have covered.
Speaker 2: I mean, they were driving at the end of the
Speaker 2: first half to tie the game where they fumbled. And
Speaker 2: again they just kind of make these these head scratching
Speaker 2: plays on offense and defense consistently. I know it's only
Speaker 2: been three weeks, but I don't understand how anybody can
Speaker 2: truly back this team, at least until they show some
Speaker 2: sense of wanting to actually win a game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again, the number to me favors the Dolphins
Speaker 1: in terms of when I just look at it and
Speaker 1: I analyze it. I mean, the Dolphins are really terrible,
Speaker 1: but they're not the type of team that can't score
Speaker 1: at all. Again, they easily could have scored at the
Speaker 1: end of the first half against the Cowboys, and even
Speaker 1: so they probably still should have covered that spread even
Speaker 1: without it until the very end. It's just something where
Speaker 1: it's just you can't look at it like a normal
Speaker 1: football team and a normal football game because you just
Speaker 1: don't know what you're going to get from them whatsoever,
Speaker 1: regardless of the number that's out there. So it's just
Speaker 1: something for now, I'm avoiding them. If they could show
Speaker 1: something any sort of urgency, any sort of you know,
Speaker 1: spark with Rosen under center again for another game, and
Speaker 1: he looked, you know, a little better than Fitzpatrick. But
Speaker 1: I might be able to start basically, you know, holding
Speaker 1: my nose and finding the value in the Dolphins and
Speaker 1: willing to place a wager. But for now, I'm not
Speaker 1: going anywhere near it. So you're avoiding the total on
Speaker 1: the Steelers Bengals on Monday night, which is forty three
Speaker 1: and a half, and I am avoiding the Dolphins getting
Speaker 1: fifteen and a half from the Chargers. Now, real quick,
Speaker 1: before we get to our next segment, I want to
Speaker 1: remind everyone about our September contest where we're giving away
Speaker 1: a signed Alvin Kamara helmet courtesy of our good friends
Speaker 1: at Pristine Auction. Just leave a review for the show
Speaker 1: on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that
Speaker 1: review to contest at bettingpros dot com. And if you've
Speaker 1: entered last month's contest, you're already in. So nowhere is there?
Speaker 1: All right? Jada, it's time for Top Prop, where we
Speaker 1: list our top player prop of the week. What do
Speaker 1: you got.
Speaker 2: Jared Goff over two hundred and seventy six? I believe
Speaker 2: it's two to seventy six and a half passing yards
Speaker 2: versus Tampa. For me, for those that already know, I'm
Speaker 2: a big Jared Golf home road splits guy. Can't touch
Speaker 2: anything with this guy or the Rams on the road.
Speaker 2: But when they're home and Jared Golf can hear Sean
Speaker 2: McVay in his headset, they are extremely targetable. I mean
Speaker 2: he specifically is extremely targetable. This is a defense that
Speaker 2: just got completely slacked by Danny Dimes. Jared Goff's obviously
Speaker 2: more talented. However, if this was on the road, I
Speaker 2: wouldn't feel as confident, But again, we have a secondary
Speaker 2: definitely leaves a lot to be desired. They've had a
Speaker 2: decent start defensive either there Wiese strange enough have been
Speaker 2: on the offensive side. But in this spot, you'd have
Speaker 2: to assume the Rams are going to be able to
Speaker 2: move the ball. The toll is pretty high. Again, the
Speaker 2: only thing you question is if this somehow is out
Speaker 2: of hand late and they're not throwing. But again, Jared
Speaker 2: Goff just finds his receivers a lot better at home.
Speaker 2: He's got McVeigh in the headset, a much more easier
Speaker 2: to read. He finds his targets much better. He goes
Speaker 2: through his progressions much easier at home. Again, this number,
Speaker 2: for me, feels like a number that I typically would
Speaker 2: see if he was on the road or something similar.
Speaker 2: On the road. Feel like I'm getting about ten or
Speaker 2: fifteen yards in favor here, So give me over Jared
Speaker 2: Goff passing yards two seventy six and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it. They have not looked great on offense,
Speaker 1: and GoF hasn't looked good, But as you pointed out,
Speaker 1: he's much worse on the road at Carolina, at Cleveland,
Speaker 1: he didn't look particularly good. He wasn't great at home
Speaker 1: against the Saints. But that's a pretty tough defense going
Speaker 1: in Tampa Bay, as they showed you. I mean, I
Speaker 1: was a little excited about Tampa Bay's defense when I
Speaker 1: looked at them against the Panthers, because Todd Bowles look
Speaker 1: to be doing some work. They've got a few playmakers there.
Speaker 1: But last week against you know, Daniel Jones, they were
Speaker 1: just totally exposed. So I do think that this is
Speaker 1: kind of a quote unquote get right game for the
Speaker 1: Rams offense, and I think most of it is going
Speaker 1: to start with Jared Golf, So I do like that
Speaker 1: pick a lot for me. I'm going to go with
Speaker 1: Marlon Mack getting at least one hundred yards rushing at
Speaker 1: plus one seventy one. Now, this comes down to a
Speaker 1: few factors. We talked about the fact that t Y
Speaker 1: Hilton may miss this game. At the very least, he's
Speaker 1: probably going to be limited even if he does play,
Speaker 1: so the pass catching options are a few. The Colts
Speaker 1: have one of the best offensive lines in the league.
Speaker 1: Mac ran for one hundred and thirty two yards against
Speaker 1: Oakland last year when they played, and the Raiders, as
Speaker 1: I mentioned earlier, are pretty banged up at linebackers, so
Speaker 1: I see the Colts looking to exploit them that way.
Speaker 1: I think this is a game that the Colts try
Speaker 1: to control from start to finish, and I think they're
Speaker 1: going to lean on the run. So I think that's
Speaker 1: going to mean upwards of twenty carries for Mac, maybe
Speaker 1: closer to twenty five depending on how this game unfolds,
Speaker 1: and I see him getting to roughly, you know, a
Speaker 1: little bit over one hundred. I wouldn't go up to
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty five. That's way too much for me.
Speaker 1: But at plus one seventy one, I'm willing to take
Speaker 1: it at those outs.
Speaker 2: I love the Rocks for that play from you. I mean, that's,
Speaker 2: you know, pretty ballsy. And I say ballsy because projecting
Speaker 2: run running backs to go over one hundred yards is
Speaker 2: always always an interesting one or an interesting enigma for
Speaker 2: that matter, regardless of who they're playing. Well, you bring
Speaker 2: up so many good points on the matchup and the
Speaker 2: opportunity there, especially at the dog price, for an awesome,
Speaker 2: awesome payout if it hits, and you're right, if the
Speaker 2: volume's there, the yardage is more than likely going to
Speaker 2: be there with it.
Speaker 1: That's really what it comes down to in the end.
Speaker 1: I mean, at plus one seventy one, it's something where
Speaker 1: again with the injuries that they have Hilton, I honestly
Speaker 1: I think they rest Hilton here and I think they
Speaker 1: get them ready for a big game at Kansas City
Speaker 1: the following week. But either way, I think realistically they
Speaker 1: think they're going to be able to win this game.
Speaker 1: And again there are a lot of injuries there with
Speaker 1: the linebackers for Oakland. I do see them leaning there
Speaker 1: on their run game. So you're going to take Jared
Speaker 1: Goff over. I believe it was two hundred and seventy
Speaker 1: six and a half yards passing, and I will go
Speaker 1: with Marlon Mack with over one hundred rushing yards. Well,
Speaker 1: that's going to do it for today's show. JJ thanks
Speaker 1: a lot for joining me. Remind everyone where they can
Speaker 1: find more of you in your work.
Speaker 2: Thanks so much, Dan. You guys can find me over
Speaker 2: on Twitter at Sports with Facts. You can also find
Speaker 2: me on YouTube. Just go ahead and type Sharpside or
Speaker 2: Sports with Facts. I do all my videos for them
Speaker 2: on sharp so I do about four to five videos
Speaker 2: a week, so you could see plenty of my face
Speaker 2: there or again, I'm pretty active on Twitter as well.
Speaker 2: I give away a ton of free plays every week.
Speaker 2: So give me a follow at Sports with Facts on
Speaker 2: Twitter and check me out on YouTube.
Speaker 1: Awesome, dij I really appreciate you coming on. I hope
Speaker 1: we can do it again.
Speaker 2: Awesome. Thanks Ed.
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