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Speaker 1: Hey there everyone, Welcome back to another episode of the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. It's time to break

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Speaker 1: down some of our favorite and least favorite bets for

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Speaker 1: the week four NFL slate, and with me to talk

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Speaker 1: about it all is JJ Appersina, the lead YouTube contributor

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Speaker 1: for sharp Side. You can find him on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: sports with Facts. JJ. How you doing.

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Speaker 2: It's up, Dan, happy to happy to be here. Thanks

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Speaker 2: for having me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, we were just talking about it. You're from Jersey,

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Speaker 1: I'm from Queens. It's good sort of, you know, I

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Speaker 1: moved up into the middle of nowhere. It's nice for

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Speaker 1: a little bit just to talk with somebody who reminds

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Speaker 1: me of home, you know what I mean.

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Speaker 2: It's like a match made in heaven.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, we're getting along great even before we got on.

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Speaker 1: So let's keep it going here. As we always do

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Speaker 1: on our Thursday night show, We're going to each give

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Speaker 1: our three best bets for this weekend's games. We'll give

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Speaker 1: one bet to avoid, and then we'll list our favorite

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Speaker 1: prop bet for the weekend. But JJ look, I usually

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Speaker 1: like to ease our guests into this, okay, but we're

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Speaker 1: on a pretty good run here with the picks after

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Speaker 1: going three and oh for week two, follow that up

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Speaker 1: last week with another three and oh week, getting right

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Speaker 1: the Bills and Bengals under forty four, the Rams laying

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Speaker 1: three to the Browns and the Saints getting four from

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks. And our guest Adam Burke now two of

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Speaker 1: his three picks, with the Lions getting six and a

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Speaker 1: half from the Eagles and the Rams and the Browns

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Speaker 1: coming in under forty seven and a half. So are

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Speaker 1: you ready to bring the thunder here or what?

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Speaker 2: So much pressure? But look, pressure makes diamonds, right, I'm.

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Speaker 1: Prepared absolutely hopefully you'll be the diamond in the rough. So,

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Speaker 1: as always, we're gonna get started here with pick six,

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Speaker 1: where both JJ and I are going to give three

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Speaker 1: of our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the

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Speaker 1: spread or on the over under. Now, as always, I

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Speaker 1: will note at the outset that, as I said, we

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Speaker 1: are recording this during the Thursday night game between the

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Speaker 1: Packers and the Eagles, so we won't be making any

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Speaker 1: picks on that game. But if you want to see

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Speaker 1: how I pick that game. You can go to bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot com. That's going to show you how I and

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Speaker 1: every betting expert who makes picks on the site made

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Speaker 1: their picks for every game on the slate. We'll also

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Speaker 1: be using the betting pros dot com consensus odds and

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Speaker 1: making our picks. Those are the aggregate odds that you're

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Speaker 1: going to find available in the market. All right, JJ,

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Speaker 1: start us off. What's your first pick here?

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Speaker 2: I myself not gonna be the most popular one. I

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Speaker 2: can only assume, but I'm actually big here on the

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Speaker 2: Oakland Raiders getting seven against the Indianapolis Colts. Just trying

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Speaker 2: to confirm a consensus at this moment, and yeah, I'm

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Speaker 2: seeing more or less some seven, some six and a half.

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Speaker 2: I do believe you'll be able to get seven if

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Speaker 2: you wait long enough at your your current book. It

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Speaker 2: is worth noting as well. And for the guys that

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Speaker 2: already know, you know kind of my stick. For me,

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Speaker 2: the number is so important when you're betting NFL in

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Speaker 2: particlo I mean any sport for that matter, but the

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Speaker 2: number is important. Having a good idea of the market

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Speaker 2: in which way the market's going to swing A line

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Speaker 2: in one direction or the other right now that everybody's

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Speaker 2: kind of drinking the Colts kool aid, especially after if

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Speaker 2: you remember, before the season started with no Andrew luck,

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Speaker 2: everybody was kind of against this team. Now it's almost

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Speaker 2: like the market it has taken too big of a

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Speaker 2: shift in favor of the Colts here. Last week they

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Speaker 2: were playing the Falcons, where the Falcons were an extremely

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Speaker 2: popular play, at least as far as the market goes.

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Speaker 2: Obviously the Colts handle business. You might look at the

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Speaker 2: final score and see they only one by three, but

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Speaker 2: if you watch the game, you knew the Colts more

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Speaker 2: or less handled business throughout. They also have a road

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Speaker 2: win at the Titans in a primetime spot. For me,

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Speaker 2: this is becoming a situation where this line is too big. Now.

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Speaker 2: I get it, Ook was not an easy team to back,

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Speaker 2: right that just got Mali wopped by Minnesota, and obviously

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Speaker 2: they lost to the Chiefs after an interesting Week one,

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Speaker 2: but I just feel like we now have too much

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Speaker 2: of a market overreaction here in favor of the Colts.

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Speaker 2: It's a huge number here. There's a lot of factors

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Speaker 2: I could break down in this game specifically, but for me,

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Speaker 2: it's really about the number here. If this one was

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Speaker 2: four and a half or five, I'd be staying away.

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Speaker 2: But at seven, I love this play. It's one of

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Speaker 2: my favorites of the week. Give me the Raiders plus

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Speaker 2: all seven points versus the Colts.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, right now, the consensus odds have been bouncing back

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Speaker 1: and forth a little bit between six and a half

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Speaker 1: and seven. Right now they're at six and a half.

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Speaker 1: But I'll be honest, I like them even at that

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Speaker 1: number as well. The Sharps, by the way, at the

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Speaker 1: breakdown of the money coming in the public is pretty

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Speaker 1: heavily on Indianapolis, but the amount of money that's actually

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Speaker 1: being met is overwhelmingly about three quarters seventy five percent

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Speaker 1: in favor of Oakland given the spread. And I agree

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Speaker 1: with you, and really, if for no other reason, then

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Speaker 1: you've got some major injuries here on the cult side, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean t Y Hilton. I don't think his practice

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Speaker 1: yet this week. He reinjured his squad last week. That

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Speaker 1: could be a big deal. And Darius Leonard is probably

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Speaker 1: not going to be able to suit up either. And

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Speaker 1: you know you pointed out the exact right issue is

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Speaker 1: that backing Oakland just feels kind of dirty for lack

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Speaker 1: of a better way to say it, right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: they don't inspire a whole lot of confidence, and they do,

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Speaker 1: to be fair, have some injuries to their linebacking court too.

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Speaker 1: But I agree with you at this point, the line

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Speaker 1: is a little big, and you're right, the public perception

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Speaker 1: has kind of gone all the way in the other

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Speaker 1: way toward towards the cults here. So on our consensus,

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Speaker 1: it's actually sixty eight percent of experts are backing Indy.

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Speaker 1: But I'm with you here. I like the Raiders here

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Speaker 1: for basically most of the reasons you described, and really

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Speaker 1: the injuries that are going on with Indianapolis.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the injuries are definitely going to be a headache.

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Speaker 2: And I have to assume Hilton's gonna play. I know that.

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Speaker 2: You know, obviously Friday's a big day for injury information.

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Speaker 2: I would assume Hilton will play. But regardless, like I said,

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Speaker 2: for me, it's a number play. This number is four

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Speaker 2: and a half. It's a stay away spot, six and

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Speaker 2: a half, seven, it's a rock solid slam Oakland spot.

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Speaker 1: You know, the only reason why I'm not sure if

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Speaker 1: Hilton's gonna play anyway is they've got case next week.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's a game where you're gonna need them

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Speaker 1: out there.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: If you're Indy, you're probably thinking that you can get

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Speaker 1: out of here with a win even without Hilton. But

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Speaker 1: you know, for all the factors you said, I agree.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little bit surprised at the breakdown of the consensus.

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Speaker 1: I thought more people would be back in Oakland. But

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Speaker 1: in the end, I've got you. If it's six and

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Speaker 1: a half, if it's seven, I agree with you there.

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Speaker 1: For my first pick, I'm not sure how you're gonna

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Speaker 1: feel about this one, my friend, but I'm going with

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Speaker 1: Patriots laying seven to the Bills.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: I talked about this on Monday with Rich Ryan when

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Speaker 1: we gave our initial reaction to the lines, and I

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Speaker 1: just have this feeling that the Patriots are gonna absolutely

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Speaker 1: blow the Bills out of the way. Now, there are

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Speaker 1: some questions on the Patriots heading into this game, but honestly,

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Speaker 1: I think it's just that the Bills are really overrated.

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Speaker 1: I mean, let's talk about them for a second, because

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Speaker 1: they've been involved in one of my picks for each

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Speaker 1: of the last two weeks. I took them going up

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Speaker 1: against the Giants and then I bet against them laying

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Speaker 1: four to the Bengals last week, but they've played three games.

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Speaker 1: They should have lost to the Jets, and would have

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Speaker 1: in Week one had CJ. Moseley not been injured in

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Speaker 1: the second half. They beat up on a porous Eli

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Speaker 1: Manning led Giants team in Week two, and then they

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Speaker 1: barely squeaked by what is an adequate but generally unimpressive

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Speaker 1: Bengals team at home. Now, the defense is legitimate, I'm

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Speaker 1: going to agree they there. They were very, very good.

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Speaker 1: Last year. They allowed just four point nine yards per play,

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Speaker 1: that was third best in the league. They're giving up

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Speaker 1: almost the exact same number this year four point eight

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Speaker 1: yards per play. At Oliver and Tremaine Edmonds are playing

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Speaker 1: great for Deavius White continues to play well in coverage.

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Speaker 1: They did lose Harrison Phillips. It's going to hurt a

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Speaker 1: tiny bit, but I don't really think it's enough to

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Speaker 1: make a difference. The defense is really strong, but regardless,

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Speaker 1: it is not good enough to stop the Patriots offense.

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Speaker 1: It's just not Almost no defense is. And I say

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Speaker 1: that with the full understanding that the Patriots may not

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Speaker 1: have Julian Edelman for this game, and James Devlin is out,

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Speaker 1: and that actually really affects their running game. It is

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Speaker 1: all irrelevant to me. The coaching staff is too good.

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Speaker 1: They'll find ways to use James White and Rex Burkhead

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Speaker 1: and Philip Rssett will get involved. Brady hasn't exactly lit

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Speaker 1: the Bills up in his history against Sean McDermot and

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Speaker 1: Leslie Fraser's defense, but in the last two years, the

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Speaker 1: Patriots have outscored the Bills in Buffalo forty eight to nine.

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Speaker 1: And going the opposite way, I do not see the

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Speaker 1: Bills being able to put up all that many points

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Speaker 1: against the Patriots defense. I mean, regardless of the quality

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Speaker 1: of the opponent. That defense is elite. Gilmour is playing

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Speaker 1: like one of the best corners in the league. Jamie

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Speaker 1: Collins is wreaking havoc all over the field. They've got depth,

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Speaker 1: they've got speed. They've got six interceptions already in three games,

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Speaker 1: and now they face a guy who has more than

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Speaker 1: an interception per game in his career. They have not

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Speaker 1: allowed a point in the first half of their last

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Speaker 1: five games, dating back to their playoff game against the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs and the Super Bowl against the Rams. The weather

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Speaker 1: is going to be fine. That can always be something

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Speaker 1: that happens in Buffalo, but it's early, it's going to

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Speaker 1: be in the sixties and sunny. I think this is

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Speaker 1: a statement game for the Pats. I think they're coming

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Speaker 1: in here. They've got another three to zero team who

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Speaker 1: really isn't that good. I think they want to make

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Speaker 1: a statement. This is their AFC East. They're not gonna

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Speaker 1: let it be wrestled away. So I think they're going

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Speaker 1: to go up there, and I think they're gonna win

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Speaker 1: this game handly. So I will take the Patriots, even

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Speaker 1: at that key number. It's a high number, laying seven,

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Speaker 1: I'll take the Patriots. And I really don't have too

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Speaker 1: many second thoughts about it.

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Speaker 2: I really legitimately like the call, but only to a

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Speaker 2: certain extent. And here's the logic that I kind of see.

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Speaker 2: You bring up a ton of good points. This is

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Speaker 2: really the Patriots division. Year in year out. The Bills

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Speaker 2: could be somewhat of fluff, especially based on who they played,

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Speaker 2: you know, the Jets, Giants, Bangles. But if you take

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Speaker 2: a step back and realize who the Patriots have played,

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Speaker 2: and if you make the argument for all, well, there's

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Speaker 2: enough parody in the league where you're really good teams

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Speaker 2: can always beat up on the bad teams. I mean

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Speaker 2: the Steelers, Dolphins, and Jets. Koby, the Steelers are not

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Speaker 2: what we thought they were going to be, and obviously

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Speaker 2: there's no Roethlisberger, and then the Dolphins and the Jets

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Speaker 2: are two teams in the NFL. I don't mind the

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Speaker 2: idea that, oh, well, the Buffalo Bills haven't played anyboddy

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Speaker 2: and now they're really getting their first test. But for me,

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Speaker 2: it's it's a tough spot for me because I truly

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Speaker 2: don't know how good the Buffalo Bills are or aren't.

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Speaker 2: I think the assumptions could be made that they're not

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Speaker 2: that good. But remember this was a team that was

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Speaker 2: getting a lot of hype preseason about their improvements on

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Speaker 2: defense and interesting to see how they play here now.

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Speaker 2: I feel like this would have this would have been

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Speaker 2: to the Buffalo's advantage if this game's played a little

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Speaker 2: later in the year, where it's a little colder, maybe

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Speaker 2: some snow, maybe you could really lean on the home crowd,

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Speaker 2: the Bill's mafia. By the way, how is it not

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Speaker 2: on everybody's bucket list to go through a table outside

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Speaker 2: Buffalo Stadium? Pregame. But look, ultimately I do like the call.

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Speaker 2: For me, it was a more or less a stay

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Speaker 2: away spot at seven hoping to get I'd hope to

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Speaker 2: get six and a half on one side or seven

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Speaker 2: and a half on the other if I was going

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Speaker 2: to bet it. But again, I can't question anybody who

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Speaker 2: backs New England against Buffalo, that's for sure.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And to be clear, I don't think this is

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Speaker 1: one where everybody's going to be backing this pick. Whatsoe?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think people like the Bills and they

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Speaker 1: do have a legitimate defense. I want to make that clear.

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Speaker 1: I'm not insulting those fans. I went to school in Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: I agree going to tailgating there is crazy and it's

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Speaker 1: a crazy spot. The crowd's going to be raucous. But

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Speaker 1: without that weather, it's not quite as bad as it

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Speaker 1: would be. And regardless, it's just not enough to stop

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Speaker 1: the Patriots at this point. Honestly, I would feel better

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Speaker 1: about the Bills had they lost a game at some

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Speaker 1: point coming in. I think when you have the AFC

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Speaker 1: East Showdown both three and zero, I think, realistically the

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Speaker 1: Pats are just going to go in there, and I

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Speaker 1: think they're going to want to make a statement. The

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Speaker 1: injuries are slightly concerning. If Henlelman misses the game, eventually,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna have to have somebody to throw the ball

257
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Speaker 1: to because Josh Gordon is also battling injury. At least

258
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Speaker 1: last week against the Jets, he was on and off

259
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Speaker 1: the field, so it's a little worrisome he is practicing

260
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Speaker 1: on a limited basis. But regardless, this just feels to

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Speaker 1: me like this is going to be the statement game

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Speaker 1: for the Pats. So I'm willing to lay the big number.

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Speaker 1: I agree seven is a lot, but I'm willing to

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Speaker 1: lay it.

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Speaker 2: I like the call real quick. The receivers injuries, I

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Speaker 2: wouldn't real work too much about that, Dan. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you know, you know, they could just slop me and

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Speaker 2: you in there and we could easily have pick up

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Speaker 2: five six camels.

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Speaker 1: Maybe not us, but like two reasonably athletic human beings.

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Speaker 1: It's probably correct. But yeah, no, I agree. I mean again,

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Speaker 1: if Edelman misses the game, I'm still taking the Pats

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Speaker 1: at this number. It'll be all James White and Rex

274
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Speaker 1: Burkhead and some receiver who I've never heard of before.

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Speaker 1: So I'm really not concerned about it. Again, a lot

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Speaker 1: of it is the mindset, and I'm a Jets fan.

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Speaker 1: I have watched the Patriots closely over the last twenty

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Speaker 1: years or so, and realistically, this just strikes me as

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Speaker 1: them being like, oh, really, you're three and zero, You're

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Speaker 1: coming here. You're saying you want to take this division,

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Speaker 1: you will take it from my cold dead hands. So

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Speaker 1: that's just how I see this game unfolding. And again,

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Speaker 1: it's not an overly popular pick. I think the money,

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Speaker 1: if anything, trends towards the Bills here. I think the

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Speaker 1: consensus picks are relatively even, maybe even a little shaded

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Speaker 1: towards the Bills last time I checked. But in the end,

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Speaker 1: I'm really comfortable with this game. So I'm gonna do it,

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Speaker 1: and I'm not gonna have too many worries about it personally.

289
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Speaker 1: Let's move on to here. Second pick, what do you

290
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Speaker 1: got for me?

291
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Speaker 2: Denver Broncos minus three versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. I do

292
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Speaker 2: believe you could get two and a half, or at

293
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Speaker 2: least you could have gotten two and a half. I

294
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Speaker 2: think now I'm starting to starting to see three and

295
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Speaker 2: a half definitely, like really like three in this spot.

296
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Speaker 2: Here's the logic. I know that the Broncos are ower

297
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Speaker 2: and three, and I know they just lost a really

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Speaker 2: bad game to the Packers. You know, it's not bad

299
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Speaker 2: that you lost to the Packers, but obviously they didn't cover,

300
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Speaker 2: they didn't play well. They're also one and two against

301
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Speaker 2: the spread, with their loan win being a game against Chicago,

302
00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:31,319
Speaker 2: where pending when you bet it, they actually could have

303
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Speaker 2: been zero and three against the spread. The reason I

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Speaker 2: like the spot here is really in the trenches. You

305
00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:39,120
Speaker 2: take a look at Denver's defensive line and what they

306
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Speaker 2: can bring to the table from the linebacker perspective as well,

307
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Speaker 2: and that Jacksonville offensive line. It's just one of the

308
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Speaker 2: worst and offensive lines in the NFL haven't had really

309
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Speaker 2: that many opportunities to be exposed all that much. Yet.

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Speaker 2: You know, Titans, Texans chiefs. Obviously Texans can bring a

311
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Speaker 2: good pass rush, but more or less they kind of

312
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Speaker 2: held Jacksonville in check for the most part. There. Thinking here, though,

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Speaker 2: is you get the young quarterback Garner Minshew has to

314
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Speaker 2: travel to Denver. This will be what I believe to

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Speaker 2: be his first true road game as a starter. I mean,

316
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Speaker 2: I know that he kind of sloted in in Houston,

317
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Speaker 2: I believe. But ultimately this is gonna be a tough

318
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Speaker 2: place to play for him. And again, a lot of

319
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Speaker 2: pressure is going to be assumed to come up the

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Speaker 2: middle for him. He's gonna have to do a lot

321
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Speaker 2: of scrambling, make a lot of uncomfortable throws. I know

322
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Speaker 2: that it's tough to back Denver and Joe Flacco and

323
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Speaker 2: how that offense has been producing. But again, you know,

324
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Speaker 2: how do you beat Jacksonville, right? You beat them with

325
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Speaker 2: the run game. Denver's got a very good run game

326
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Speaker 2: with Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. I would expect them

327
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Speaker 2: to lean heavy on that. A lot of screens play action,

328
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Speaker 2: and again, you know, the whole Jayalin Ramsey situation is

329
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Speaker 2: still weird. For me. This is a big slam spot

330
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Speaker 2: for the Broncos. Again. I know they're zero to three.

331
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Speaker 2: I know everybody's drinking the Gardner Minshew kool aid, But

332
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Speaker 2: for me, the numbers a little too small here. Jacksonville's

333
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Speaker 2: getting a little too much respect. I know they get

334
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Speaker 2: the extra A few days after Thursday Night Football, everybody

335
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Speaker 2: watched them win primetime against the Titans, and everybody just

336
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Speaker 2: watched Denver lose in a bad one against the Packers. Again,

337
00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,080
Speaker 2: this is a week to week league. Really like Demver

338
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Speaker 2: in this spot.

339
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Speaker 1: Do you like the amount of curiosity if the number

340
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Speaker 1: sits at three and a half instead of three?

341
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Speaker 2: I do not like them at three and a half.

342
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Speaker 2: For me, the value, the value is really at three.

343
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Speaker 2: I don't want to I don't I wouldn't want if

344
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Speaker 2: you guys see three and a half, I wouldn't want

345
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Speaker 2: you to play the hook there. But again it's like

346
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Speaker 2: I always say, you need to be leveraging multiple books.

347
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Speaker 2: If you're going to find yourself success in this space

348
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Speaker 2: and in this industry, you need to be leveraging multiple

349
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Speaker 2: sports books. Because again it's crazy as it might sound.

350
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Speaker 2: You know, if you're leveraging four or five sports books,

351
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Speaker 2: and I know it's kind of hard to keep that

352
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Speaker 2: much money tied up in different areas, But if you're

353
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Speaker 2: leveraging that many sports books, you're going to notice differences

354
00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:35,280
Speaker 2: in lines. Whether it's fifteen twenty cents here, fifteen twenty

355
00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:37,440
Speaker 2: cents there, half a point here, half a point there.

356
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Speaker 2: Might not matter in a one week sample, but multiply

357
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Speaker 2: that by fifty two weeks, by three four years. You're talking,

358
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Speaker 2: you know, you're talking easily an additional thirty forty bets

359
00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:48,080
Speaker 2: over the course of a season, maybe even more, that

360
00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:49,720
Speaker 2: are in your favor one hundred percent.

361
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Speaker 1: I agree with that. And one of the things on

362
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Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com is we give the consensus odds, and

363
00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:57,480
Speaker 1: so you want to see what is out there generally

364
00:14:57,520 --> 00:14:59,760
Speaker 1: in the market. But it also lists the various odds

365
00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:01,960
Speaker 1: that are available at different sports books. And if you

366
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Speaker 1: look at the Jaguars and the Broncos, you'll see there

367
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Speaker 1: are some sports books that are at three. There are

368
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Speaker 1: some sports books that are at three and a half.

369
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Speaker 1: So you really want to pick and choose your battles.

370
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Speaker 1: As for me, I lean in your direction. It feels

371
00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:19,080
Speaker 1: uncomfortable again to go with Denver. How do they not

372
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,720
Speaker 1: have a sack on the year? I do not understand.

373
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Speaker 1: My guess is you pointed out the problems with the

374
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Speaker 1: Jaguars line that they're gonna get a bunch. I think

375
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Speaker 1: they're gonna be motivated this week. I'm a little I

376
00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:32,480
Speaker 1: get a little worried about the Mini bi you know,

377
00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,200
Speaker 1: the playing off of Thursday. Teams like that. I feel

378
00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:38,240
Speaker 1: like generally come out strong, but They're probably coming off

379
00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:41,040
Speaker 1: a little bit of a high, and I think Denver really,

380
00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:43,320
Speaker 1: I mean, if they're gonna do anything this season, which

381
00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,160
Speaker 1: they're obviously not, but if they're going to at all

382
00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,440
Speaker 1: make a statement for this season, it's gonna be here

383
00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:52,920
Speaker 1: at home against a very mediocre team, against you know,

384
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Speaker 1: a kid making his third professional start. So I lean

385
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Speaker 1: towards your way. I don't know if I would have

386
00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,840
Speaker 1: enough to take it at laying three, but I definitely

387
00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:05,680
Speaker 1: lean your way. I do think that the defense is

388
00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:07,640
Speaker 1: going to come out and try to make a statement here.

389
00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:11,280
Speaker 1: Let's move on to my second pick, and that is

390
00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:14,960
Speaker 1: going to be the under on the Panthers Texans, and

391
00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,680
Speaker 1: that is at forty seven and a half. Look, Kyle

392
00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:20,760
Speaker 1: Allen looked great last week, and frankly, had he been

393
00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:23,400
Speaker 1: the quarterback for the Panthers since the start of the season,

394
00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:25,800
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that they're three and zero right now.

395
00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:28,160
Speaker 1: But that is much more because of how bad Cam

396
00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:30,720
Speaker 1: Newton was. I think everyone's going just a little bit

397
00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:34,040
Speaker 1: crazy about evaluating Allen off a game against a truly

398
00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:36,920
Speaker 1: terrible defense in the Cardinals. I know he looked good

399
00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:38,680
Speaker 1: when he filled in at the very end of last year,

400
00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,200
Speaker 1: but you really can't draw too many conclusions from that.

401
00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:44,320
Speaker 1: With a full game of tape and obviously a much

402
00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:46,720
Speaker 1: stronger defense here with the Texans, I think Alan is

403
00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:49,840
Speaker 1: going to have a much tougher time moving the Panthers

404
00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,760
Speaker 1: towards scoring points. Now. The Texans are solid against the run.

405
00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:55,920
Speaker 1: They're not spectacular, but they're solid enough. They're same against

406
00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:57,920
Speaker 1: the pass despite the fact that they've had a tough

407
00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:00,160
Speaker 1: matchup with Drew Brees. You mentioned the fact that they

408
00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:02,680
Speaker 1: can get to the quarterback, and playing in Arizona like

409
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:04,600
Speaker 1: Allen did last week, it's not even like a really

410
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,399
Speaker 1: road game. I mean, they never play well at home.

411
00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:11,800
Speaker 1: The fans aren't crazy right now, but playing in Houston

412
00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:14,760
Speaker 1: certainly is a road game, so I expect the Panthers

413
00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,800
Speaker 1: offense to largely be held in check. On the flip side,

414
00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:21,200
Speaker 1: their defense overall remains very strong. They're allowing just four

415
00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:24,679
Speaker 1: point three yards per play, and they're particularly good against

416
00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:26,720
Speaker 1: the pass. And the fact that they're so good against

417
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,600
Speaker 1: the paths is really what leads me towards the under here.

418
00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,679
Speaker 1: They put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks at

419
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:34,920
Speaker 1: least thirty percent of the time in each of their

420
00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:38,400
Speaker 1: first three games so far. James Bradbury is playing extremely

421
00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:41,240
Speaker 1: well right now, so is Dante Jackson, and they're generally

422
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,800
Speaker 1: holding a pass offenses in check. Their real weak spot

423
00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:47,359
Speaker 1: is against the run, and that's gotten a little better

424
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:49,480
Speaker 1: in recent weeks, although some of that is the opponent,

425
00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,520
Speaker 1: but regardless, that is just not where the Texans butter

426
00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:55,360
Speaker 1: their bread. They don't involve Duke Johnson much. Carlos Hide

427
00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,480
Speaker 1: has been fine, but he is not going to run

428
00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:01,199
Speaker 1: down the Panthers throat. It's not the place that the

429
00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,480
Speaker 1: Texans can really exploit another team in the end. This

430
00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:06,800
Speaker 1: strikes me as a kind of tight defensive game where

431
00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:08,959
Speaker 1: neither team piles up the point. So I'm happily going

432
00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,399
Speaker 1: to take the under here at forty seven and a half,

433
00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:12,800
Speaker 1: like like the call.

434
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 2: Now for one thing that I will tell you with

435
00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:17,120
Speaker 2: Houston specifically and Deshaun Watson. First of all, I don't

436
00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 2: think there's anybody in the NFL that takes more sacks

437
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:20,160
Speaker 2: than him, and I don't think it's and I don't

438
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:21,920
Speaker 2: think it's an issue with that offensive line. He just sits.

439
00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:23,080
Speaker 2: He just holds onto the ball too.

440
00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:25,720
Speaker 1: Long, forever, forever. He's gonna get He's gonna get rid

441
00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:28,360
Speaker 1: one of these times. He's going to get hit this year,

442
00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:30,760
Speaker 1: I bet, and he's going to be out for at least,

443
00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:32,920
Speaker 1: you know, most of the game. He just he holds

444
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:33,600
Speaker 1: up ball forever.

445
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:35,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he's a big dude. I mean, you know,

446
00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:37,680
Speaker 2: it's hard to kind of tell that he is, you know,

447
00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 2: on the screen when you look at him next to

448
00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 2: offensive lineman. But he's a big dude. He's in great shape.

449
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:42,879
Speaker 2: But you're right, I mean, he's not Michael Vick. You know,

450
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 2: he's not Michael Vick, but he's not Cam Newton. He's

451
00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:47,040
Speaker 2: somewhere in between as far as size goes. Sure, but

452
00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:50,399
Speaker 2: he's definitely a big boy, so he could take his

453
00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:52,119
Speaker 2: fair share of hits. But he you know, he's definitely

454
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:53,920
Speaker 2: holds on it way too long and could find himself

455
00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:55,760
Speaker 2: getting blindsided one of these days, and yeah, be in

456
00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 2: a lot of trouble. But ultimately, for me, as long

457
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,440
Speaker 2: as Carolina can keep this slow scoring for themselves. And

458
00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 2: I say that because Houston just always appears to be

459
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:05,800
Speaker 2: one of those teams week in and week out that

460
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:07,960
Speaker 2: kind of like if they go down big, you almost

461
00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:10,040
Speaker 2: kind of know they're gonna come back, you know, just

462
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:12,800
Speaker 2: based on how Watson, you know, almost like turns Madden

463
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:14,840
Speaker 2: on as starts running around back there and finding Hopkins

464
00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:17,199
Speaker 2: fine and fuller. So you would hope that you can

465
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,639
Speaker 2: kind of keep this low scoring in the in the

466
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,159
Speaker 2: low twenties towards the end of it, maybe in the

467
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,720
Speaker 2: low teens, you know, for the first half, because again,

468
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,880
Speaker 2: you know, I feel like if Carolina starts getting going,

469
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,000
Speaker 2: obviously Houston's gonna get that same mojo. But ultimately it

470
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:33,399
Speaker 2: does make a lot of sense. It's gonna be a

471
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:35,879
Speaker 2: tough test for Kyle Allen going up against that Houston

472
00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:39,000
Speaker 2: defensive front, so you think they'd be able to keep

473
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,919
Speaker 2: him in check. And again Carolina's defense is no such either.

474
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:44,960
Speaker 2: Would expect plenty of sacks on their end, maybe evenna

475
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,800
Speaker 2: turn over to really like this spot under as well.

476
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:50,600
Speaker 1: I mean, if if Kyle Allen is what he looked

477
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 1: like last week, this is just gonna fly over. I

478
00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:56,120
Speaker 1: mean there's no doubt because you said it exactly right.

479
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,360
Speaker 1: Houston can look terrible in a game, Watson can look

480
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,399
Speaker 1: totally lo and then as you aptly put it, he

481
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,080
Speaker 1: goes Matten without question. I mean, he can just do

482
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,680
Speaker 1: that and put up twenty one points in the span

483
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,080
Speaker 1: of eight minutes without blinking an eye. But I don't

484
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:11,920
Speaker 1: think that's how this game is gonna play out. I

485
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:13,640
Speaker 1: could be wrong on Alan, and if I am, then

486
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:15,320
Speaker 1: he's going to be able to just light it up.

487
00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:17,919
Speaker 1: But I don't see that happening in this game against

488
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,919
Speaker 1: a much stronger defense than he played last week. I

489
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 1: think in the end, it's going to be tight for

490
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 1: most of the game, So Watson's not going to do

491
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:26,239
Speaker 1: the thing where he's going to go Superman. They're going

492
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 1: to do what they can, but again, I don't expect

493
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 1: them to be able to do that much on the

494
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 1: passing side of the ball. I think they're going to

495
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,520
Speaker 1: have to use the run game that's gonna eat up

496
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 1: some clock which helps the under So for me, I

497
00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 1: feel pretty good about it. But you know, I if

498
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:41,080
Speaker 1: Kyle Allen does this again, then I'm going to have

499
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:45,000
Speaker 1: to completely reevaluate the way I feel generally about the Panthers.

500
00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:46,880
Speaker 1: But for now, I'm willing to write off last week

501
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 1: for the most part as playing a game against a really,

502
00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 1: really bad Arizona defense. Let's move on to your third

503
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:52,919
Speaker 1: pick here, what he.

504
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:56,880
Speaker 2: Got the Detroit Lions getting six and a half bones

505
00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 2: versus the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, this is a game,

506
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,439
Speaker 2: a number play. You know, most of the guys know

507
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 2: that they follow me already that I'm all about targeting

508
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 2: certain numbers. Now you may see this line opened at

509
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,439
Speaker 2: four and a half. There was actually plenty of spots

510
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,399
Speaker 2: this opened at three and a half. The fact that

511
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 2: I can get six and a half here with a team,

512
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,680
Speaker 2: first of all, that's been competitive in every game they've played. Now,

513
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 2: if you make the argument that okay, well the Cardinals

514
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 2: aren't really that good, fine, but they were winning against

515
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:23,160
Speaker 2: the Cardinals pretty big. They went into a prevent defense

516
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:26,640
Speaker 2: and allowed Arizona to come back. They handled the Chargers,

517
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 2: They most certainly handled the Eagles. That three point score

518
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:33,879
Speaker 2: does not nearly show how dominant Detroit was throughout. This

519
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 2: is just a team that's doing enough to hang around. Now,

520
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,400
Speaker 2: Slay I know, is a little banged up and he's

521
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:41,399
Speaker 2: a big, a big time player for them on the

522
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:44,679
Speaker 2: defensive side at the corner position, so hopefully he can play.

523
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,919
Speaker 2: But either way, this is a gigantic number for Detroit. Now,

524
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,159
Speaker 2: I know Kansas City is a very public public betting

525
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 2: team as they should be that cover a lot of spreads.

526
00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 2: Mahomes is very fun to watch. It's a very quote

527
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 2: unquote sexy quarterback with all the big throws and all

528
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 2: the flashy plays. But again, if there's a team that

529
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 2: can really slow him down at least somewhat defensively, you

530
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 2: would think not only could Detroit do it, but you

531
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 2: would also think that Stafford and Gala Day and carry on.

532
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,199
Speaker 2: Johnson could keep up pace with this team if this

533
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 2: had to get into the high twenties. Really like the spot.

534
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:14,880
Speaker 2: I think this is a big number and Detroit actually

535
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,920
Speaker 2: has an opportunity here to surprise folks and maybe pull

536
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:18,439
Speaker 2: the upset.

537
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 1: I'm not going to disagree with anything you said, and

538
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 1: Detroit has been one of the surprise teams for me.

539
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 1: They are much much better than I expected them. Here's

540
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 1: my issue with this when I look at them, Okay,

541
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 1: not Detroit, really Kansas City. I forget if it was

542
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:39,959
Speaker 1: Rufus Peabody or if it was Rich Ryan. When I

543
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 1: was talking on Monday, who used the term modelbusters, which

544
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,439
Speaker 1: is just you can look at a game and you

545
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 1: can analyze it and you could say this is what

546
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 1: should happen. And that is how I feel exactly the

547
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,240
Speaker 1: reasons that you said. Assuming that Sleigh is there, which

548
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 1: I know wouldn't move the line much, but here it

549
00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,399
Speaker 1: would be pretty significant. When I look at the line,

550
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:02,360
Speaker 1: that line's too high on what I've seen out of Detroit,

551
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 1: and based on the fact that Detroit's going to be home,

552
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 1: they easily could be three and h and yet I

553
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 1: would have such a tough time going up against Mahomes

554
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 1: because I feel like what he's able to do sometimes

555
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 1: just defies what you can do when you just rationally

556
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 1: look at a game. Does that make sense what I'm saying.

557
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if it's.

558
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 2: Over the ye oh yeah, one hundred percent. I mean,

559
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:25,360
Speaker 2: you know, you see this in a bunch of other

560
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:27,879
Speaker 2: sports as well. NFL it hasn't been as common over

561
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 2: the last few years. I mean, the NFL is more

562
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 2: or less a true number spot where you got to

563
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 2: bet certain numbers and you've got to stay away from

564
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 2: certain numbers as it relates to the market and the

565
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 2: betting place. But there are some guys from year to

566
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 2: year that make a difference. I mean, I remember Cam Newton.

567
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 2: You know Cam Newton in college you know, reminds me

568
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 2: of a lot. I mean, you know, Auburn really wasn't

569
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 2: meant to even be that good that year that he played.

570
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,120
Speaker 2: At least he's he's at least what means the most

571
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,639
Speaker 2: to me in reference to what Mahomes has been doing

572
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 2: at the NFL level, because you're right. I mean, you know,

573
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 2: you put the numbers in front of you, you put

574
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 2: projections in front of you, and and numbers make sense

575
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 2: to back almost it almost numbers make sense to almost

576
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 2: fade Kansas City every week. But week in and week out,

577
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 2: Mahomes overperforms models. And even if you adjust the models,

578
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,479
Speaker 2: I mean, you can't adjust models where you're projecting Mahomes

579
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:14,879
Speaker 2: to throw for three to fifty every week. So you know,

580
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:16,959
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, you're completely right. There

581
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 2: are certain players that can be model busters, and Mahomes

582
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 2: has certainly been this way early on his career, whether

583
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 2: it's Andy Reid and him being a perfect potion together,

584
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 2: or you know, just his talent when overlooked by many.

585
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 2: But regardless, he is quite a stud. But I just

586
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 2: really like the like the number here. This wasn't that

587
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 2: I know that teams that Kansasity have been playing have

588
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 2: been getting loved the last few weeks. And I know

589
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 2: Baltimore backdoor covers last week. Well, unless you got it

590
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 2: really late, you would have covered with Kansas City then

591
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 2: at four and a half or four. But again for me,

592
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,640
Speaker 2: strong number here with Detroit at home, who's looked very competitive.

593
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 2: Kansas City may have too much speed, but ultimately time

594
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,320
Speaker 2: will tell, and I do believe Detroit can keep pace.

595
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 2: They've looked really good offensively as well as defensively thus far.

596
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, they really Again, as I've said, they really surprised me.

597
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 1: They've been very impressive pretty much across the board. And

598
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 1: I'm glad you pick this one because I was definitely

599
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,439
Speaker 1: considering picking it, but it hurts a little bit to

600
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: have to make that actual strong statement against my home,

601
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 1: So I'm glad you pick it. I don't disagree with

602
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 1: any of the reasoning. I certainly lean towards the Lions.

603
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 1: I don't know whether or not eventually when I make

604
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 1: my final selections this week, when I place all my bets,

605
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 1: whether or not I'm going to actually wind up pulling

606
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,119
Speaker 1: the trigger. But if I do, I'm sure it's going

607
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 1: to be on the Lions. Let's go to my third

608
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 1: pick here, which is something that also I don't feel

609
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 1: comfortable with, but when I've looked at it, I just

610
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 1: I can't really get away from it. And it's the

611
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 1: Cardinals getting six at home against the Seahawks. Now, this

612
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,360
Speaker 1: line has moved, and it's moved pretty hard. I think

613
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,439
Speaker 1: the look aheadline may have been Arizona getting three and

614
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,639
Speaker 1: a half perhaps, so it's jumped pretty significantly in favor

615
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 1: of Seattle. And the number of bets here is roughly

616
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:58,679
Speaker 1: seventy five percent in favor of the Seahawks, but the

617
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,360
Speaker 1: total amount bet is close to fifty to fifty would

618
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,400
Speaker 1: suggest that there's probably more sharpbetters in on the Cardinals,

619
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 1: and I think there's an obvious reason why, and that

620
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 1: obvious reason is that the Seahawks just are not very good.

621
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:13,640
Speaker 1: I explained it a lot last week when I took

622
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,679
Speaker 1: the Saints getting four points against Seattle. But they barely

623
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:18,959
Speaker 1: squeaked by the Bengals at home in Week one, and

624
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 1: barely squeaked by a Pittsburgh team that had to put

625
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: in Mason Rudolph mid game, and despite the final score

626
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 1: last week, they lost pretty handily to the Saints in

627
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:30,119
Speaker 1: their home building. Led by Teddy Bridgewater and again I

628
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 1: talked about it last in the week. The strength of

629
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 1: their defensive unit is their linebackers, right, so they just

630
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 1: pretty much leave their base package out there all day long,

631
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 1: which means if you can throw on them, and pretty

632
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 1: much everyone can throw on them, then they're vulnerable. Kyler

633
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,919
Speaker 1: Murray liked Deshaun Watson. Then we said he holds the

634
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,199
Speaker 1: ball way too long, and that's devastating when you have

635
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 1: a terrible offensive line and the run game it's pretty

636
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 1: much non existent.

637
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 2: Right.

638
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 1: They don't run the ball well, and they don't attempt

639
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 1: to run it enough. They're twenty six in the league

640
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,919
Speaker 1: in both of those categories. But the way Seattle schemes

641
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: on defense and the struggles that they have against the pass,

642
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:05,879
Speaker 1: I think the Cardinals are going to be able to

643
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 1: move the ball fairly well. Now you take the flip

644
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 1: side here, the Cardinals defense is terrible, okay, particularly given

645
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 1: their missing pieces at cornerback. But I look at this

646
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,679
Speaker 1: game as being one where the Seahawks really want to

647
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 1: get their run game going against the third worst rush

648
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 1: defense in the league. They want to get Chris Carson

649
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 1: back on track. Rareshad Penny May come back. They want

650
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,879
Speaker 1: to run the ball generally as much as any team

651
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,159
Speaker 1: in the league. So if Russell Wilson wanted to, or

652
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 1: if he had an offensive coordinator who wanted him to,

653
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,879
Speaker 1: he could go nuts against this pass defense, kind of

654
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 1: like he did at the end of last game. But

655
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 1: he doesn't have an offensive coordinator who wants to do that,

656
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 1: So I don't expect their repeat of last week. I

657
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 1: expect more of a repeat of the game against the

658
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 1: Bengals in Week one, where the Seahawks won by a point,

659
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 1: a slow, kind of grinded out, methodical win where the

660
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 1: Seahawks can do what they do best at four points

661
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 1: when I saw when I first looked ahead, I was

662
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,680
Speaker 1: uncomfortable with that line. But at six, it's just something

663
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 1: where I don't think I can get away from it

664
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 1: because I think that number is just too.

665
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 2: High, such a good number. I'm only seeing six on

666
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 2: a few spots, So it's really it's really a great

667
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,120
Speaker 2: find find by you there. Yeah, I mean, I don't

668
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 2: know how you could lay. I don't know how you

669
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 2: could lay more than more than four or five with

670
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 2: Seattle right now, uh on the road against against most teams. UH.

671
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,439
Speaker 2: So for me, it's and I get it. Arizona's kind

672
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 2: of looked pretty crappy, you know, whether it was offensively

673
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 2: or defensively, I don't. Offensively, they've kind of looked together

674
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 2: per se, but uh, you know, they're also you know,

675
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 2: they're playing at a pace that's that's kind of frantic

676
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 2: at least as far as NFL standard goes. And they

677
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 2: run a ton of four wide receiver sets, so it

678
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 2: is kind of actually fun to watch them play. But again,

679
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 2: you got to figure, you know that Seattle defense obviously

680
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 2: is not near what it used to be. You know,

681
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 2: the only the only question I would have obviously is

682
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 2: if if this became a shootout, ken Arizona keep up,

683
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 2: because that's kind of been their their issue, you know,

684
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 2: at least most recently where Carolina kind of they were

685
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 2: kind of close throughout and then Carolina just hit kept

686
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 2: hitting the gas and then Arizona didn't. You know, you

687
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 2: kind of know what you're gonna get out of Arizona's defense.

688
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 2: But if they can certainly put a few touchdowns up

689
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 2: on the board, they'll easily cover this number.

690
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, my issue with this is that Murray

691
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 1: looks great when games start, right he comes out, he's firing,

692
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 1: he's super efficient, He's always like fifteen of sixteen. Because

693
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 1: I think that Cliff Kingsbury has the first, you know,

694
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 1: few drives scripted and then the game keeps going and

695
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 1: they kind of run out of scripted plays and they

696
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 1: just need to make it up. And when you have that,

697
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 1: that's when Murray starts looking a little bit like a

698
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 1: deer in headlights. So if Seattle gets out to a

699
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 1: big lead here, yeah, this bet is certainly in trouble,

700
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 1: I really think, And just reading the tea leaves, he

701
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 1: listened to the way Pete Carroll's talking. Again. Last year,

702
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 1: they ran the ball roughly fifty percent of the time.

703
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 1: It was the most by far in the NFL. And

704
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 1: if they that's what they want to be. They don't

705
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 1: want to have Russell Wilson running around like a madman,

706
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 1: chucking it down the field, potentially getting injured when he's

707
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 1: taking off and running all the time. They want to

708
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 1: be a run first team. I think they think they

709
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 1: can win this game. I could see even worst case scenario,

710
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,239
Speaker 1: a backdoor cover at the very end, but I just

711
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 1: don't see this as something where they're going to get

712
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 1: way out ahead I think this is going to be

713
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 1: one where it's going to be pretty close throughout. Seattle's

714
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 1: not going to put their foot on the gas because

715
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 1: that's not how they run their offense, right, I mean,

716
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 1: they go crazy only when they're behind, and there you

717
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 1: know Wilson is going into the Deshaun Watson superman mode.

718
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 1: So in the end, I see it as more of

719
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 1: a run heavy game. I think they need to get

720
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 1: Chris Carson right. I think they need to go back

721
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 1: to doing what they want to be doing. And so

722
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 1: I see this as much more of a close game

723
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 1: and a divisional one. Again, I think the Seahawks are

724
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 1: going to come out on top. And to your point,

725
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 1: I mean I'm looking around right now, and when I

726
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 1: look at the odds available in the market, if you

727
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 1: look at it on fad Duel, it's only five. I

728
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 1: don't love it at that number. Six is much different

729
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 1: to me than five, certainly than four that it was.

730
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 1: But that's the point. Look around. If it's at five, no,

731
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 1: I'm not nearly as comfortable with it. But at six,

732
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 1: as it's available at a lot of places, I think

733
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 1: I'm good with that. There like the spot, love the number, yep,

734
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 1: all right, let's recap here. JJ. You like the Raiders

735
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 1: plus six and a half or seven against the Colts.

736
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 1: You like the Broncos laying three to the Jets and

737
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 1: the Lions getting six and a half from the Chiefs.

738
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 1: I'll take the Patriots laying seven to the Bills, the

739
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 1: Panthers and the Texans to come under forty seven and

740
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 1: a half, and the Cardinals at home getting six from

741
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. Before we move on, I do want to

742
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 1: tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show, BETMGM. I've

743
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,520
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747
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748
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749
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764
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,280
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766
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:25,440
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767
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769
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,800
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770
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,560
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771
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 1: one in hundred gambler, All right, j J, let's move

772
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 1: on to it's a trap where we list the line

773
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 1: that we are avoiding. Why don't you start us off?

774
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 2: So one line in particular that I'd like to avoid

775
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 2: is a total on Monday night football. I think it's

776
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 2: you're gonna look at a you're gonna see a number

777
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 2: of about forty three and a half. And I think

778
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 2: that a lot of people are gonna are gonna more

779
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 2: or less look at this game. It's gonna be on

780
00:32:56,160 --> 00:33:00,120
Speaker 2: Monday night. They're probably going to bet it over. For me,

781
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 2: this is a spot where you have more or less

782
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 2: two defenses that have really been underperforming, specifically Pittsburgh. But again,

783
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 2: you have two quarterbacks that are so in question, and

784
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 2: I think a lot of people aren't even gonna are

785
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:15,000
Speaker 2: gonna completely look past the spot up until probably Monday afternoon,

786
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 2: Monday evening, and the more or less end up convincing

787
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 2: themselves to bet this game over because it's a small number,

788
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 2: but you just have two quarterbacks and two offenses who

789
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 2: have been completely unpredictable. And it's just not a spot

790
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 2: I want to be anywhere near come Monday night. It's

791
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 2: not a spot I want to bet the over. It's

792
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 2: not a spot I want to bet the under. It's

793
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,479
Speaker 2: a tricky number with the two teams. With the two

794
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 2: teams and specifically the two quarterbacks, you're getting Matt in

795
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,719
Speaker 2: this game, and again along with the spotty defensive play

796
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 2: and spotty offensive play. So I'd be interested to see

797
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 2: anybody that could convince me of why the over makes

798
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 2: sense or why the under makes sense, because to me,

799
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 2: neither does.

800
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 1: I could not agree with you more. I do not

801
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 1: know what to do with this game. I looked at

802
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 1: this game just even generally, by the way, even with

803
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 1: the spread, I have no feel for what this game

804
00:33:58,240 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: is going to be. I don't have a good stand

805
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 1: of what we're going to see from Mason Rudolph. He

806
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 1: looked pretty dreadful against the forty nine ers last week.

807
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 1: He came up with a couple of big plays. The

808
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 1: Bengals are weird. Andy Dalton's throwing for a ton of yards,

809
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 1: but especially in the divisional game. And it's primetime too,

810
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 1: so you really don't know what Dalton is going to

811
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 1: show up. It is a thing where I had zero

812
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 1: sense for the total coming on here forty four. You know,

813
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:25,399
Speaker 1: it seems roughly right, and because of that, I don't

814
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:27,720
Speaker 1: really lean anyway at all. So I think that's actually

815
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:31,279
Speaker 1: a really good call, because it's something where I feel

816
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 1: like you look at a bet, and you look at

817
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 1: a number, and whether or not you use a model,

818
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 1: or whether or not you project it in advance and

819
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:39,439
Speaker 1: then look at it, you get a feel for which

820
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 1: way you're leaning, and if it's close to the number,

821
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 1: that's fine for me. I would have no idea what

822
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 1: to do here with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, so I love

823
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 1: the call. I certainly would stay away from it, and

824
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:53,360
Speaker 1: I would certainly be all over that as well. For me,

825
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 1: my bet to avoid is the Chargers laying fifteen and

826
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 1: a half to the Dolphins. Now, we might be able

827
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:01,320
Speaker 1: to save some time on this segment in the future

828
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 1: if we just insert the Dolphins and whoever they are

829
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,320
Speaker 1: playing into my pick here every week for the foreseeable future.

830
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 1: The Dolphins are historically bad, historically bad, but they gave

831
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 1: the Dallas a little scare in the first half. They

832
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,320
Speaker 1: could have been leading in that game, they didn't funnel

833
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 1: it away. And every week when I look at the

834
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 1: number in the Dolphins game, I see value in the

835
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 1: Dolphins every single week. But again, Rufus Peabody and Rich Ryan,

836
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 1: they talked about this concept of model busters, not a

837
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 1: novel thing or anything, but how both the Dolphins and

838
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes with the Chiefs really fit that mold because

839
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 1: whatever model you use is gonna tell you that you

840
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 1: should probably take the points. And here you've got a

841
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 1: West Coast team traveling east. They're a little banged up,

842
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 1: they don't usually put up a million points, so I

843
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 1: can certainly see value in the Dolphins, but I can't

844
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 1: take this game. It's not like the last two weeks

845
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 1: where it's twenty points or more than that, but it's

846
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 1: a lot of points. I just can't in good conscience

847
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 1: take the Dolphin, even though that's where I think I

848
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 1: see the value. It's the type of game where I

849
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: just need to avoid, and I think I maybe just

850
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 1: need to avoid Dobins games. I don't know how you

851
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 1: feel if you've been able to properly analyze these games,

852
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 1: but at least with the Chargers lank fifteen and a

853
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: half at a high number, I'm just not willing to

854
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:17,719
Speaker 1: go anywhere near this game.

855
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,439
Speaker 2: Couldn't agree more my issue with betting Miami, and again,

856
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 2: when it comes to the numbers and model busting. You

857
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:23,920
Speaker 2: know you'll look every week and be like, Okay, well

858
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 2: you gotta bet Miami plus the points. You know. The

859
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 2: problem is is if you watch them play. There is

860
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 2: just there's no sense of urgency and no sense to

861
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,360
Speaker 2: even want to be competitive. You know, a few of

862
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 2: their games they've ended up getting not so much backdoored late.

863
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 2: But I mean the Cowboys game they should have covered.

864
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 2: I mean, they were driving at the end of the

865
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 2: first half to tie the game where they fumbled. And

866
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:48,800
Speaker 2: again they just kind of make these these head scratching

867
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:51,440
Speaker 2: plays on offense and defense consistently. I know it's only

868
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 2: been three weeks, but I don't understand how anybody can

869
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 2: truly back this team, at least until they show some

870
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 2: sense of wanting to actually win a game.

871
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:04,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again, the number to me favors the Dolphins

872
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 1: in terms of when I just look at it and

873
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 1: I analyze it. I mean, the Dolphins are really terrible,

874
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 1: but they're not the type of team that can't score

875
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 1: at all. Again, they easily could have scored at the

876
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:16,400
Speaker 1: end of the first half against the Cowboys, and even

877
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 1: so they probably still should have covered that spread even

878
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:22,359
Speaker 1: without it until the very end. It's just something where

879
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 1: it's just you can't look at it like a normal

880
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 1: football team and a normal football game because you just

881
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 1: don't know what you're going to get from them whatsoever,

882
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 1: regardless of the number that's out there. So it's just

883
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:37,800
Speaker 1: something for now, I'm avoiding them. If they could show

884
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 1: something any sort of urgency, any sort of you know,

885
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 1: spark with Rosen under center again for another game, and

886
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 1: he looked, you know, a little better than Fitzpatrick. But

887
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,240
Speaker 1: I might be able to start basically, you know, holding

888
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 1: my nose and finding the value in the Dolphins and

889
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:53,840
Speaker 1: willing to place a wager. But for now, I'm not

890
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:56,360
Speaker 1: going anywhere near it. So you're avoiding the total on

891
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 1: the Steelers Bengals on Monday night, which is forty three

892
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 1: and a half, and I am avoiding the Dolphins getting

893
00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 1: fifteen and a half from the Chargers. Now, real quick,

894
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 1: before we get to our next segment, I want to

895
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,719
Speaker 1: remind everyone about our September contest where we're giving away

896
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 1: a signed Alvin Kamara helmet courtesy of our good friends

897
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:14,799
Speaker 1: at Pristine Auction. Just leave a review for the show

898
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 1: on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that

899
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 1: review to contest at bettingpros dot com. And if you've

900
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 1: entered last month's contest, you're already in. So nowhere is there?

901
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:25,719
Speaker 1: All right? Jada, it's time for Top Prop, where we

902
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 1: list our top player prop of the week. What do

903
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 1: you got.

904
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 2: Jared Goff over two hundred and seventy six? I believe

905
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 2: it's two to seventy six and a half passing yards

906
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 2: versus Tampa. For me, for those that already know, I'm

907
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 2: a big Jared Golf home road splits guy. Can't touch

908
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 2: anything with this guy or the Rams on the road.

909
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 2: But when they're home and Jared Golf can hear Sean

910
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 2: McVay in his headset, they are extremely targetable. I mean

911
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 2: he specifically is extremely targetable. This is a defense that

912
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 2: just got completely slacked by Danny Dimes. Jared Goff's obviously

913
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:57,920
Speaker 2: more talented. However, if this was on the road, I

914
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,760
Speaker 2: wouldn't feel as confident, But again, we have a secondary

915
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,359
Speaker 2: definitely leaves a lot to be desired. They've had a

916
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 2: decent start defensive either there Wiese strange enough have been

917
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 2: on the offensive side. But in this spot, you'd have

918
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 2: to assume the Rams are going to be able to

919
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 2: move the ball. The toll is pretty high. Again, the

920
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 2: only thing you question is if this somehow is out

921
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 2: of hand late and they're not throwing. But again, Jared

922
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:22,479
Speaker 2: Goff just finds his receivers a lot better at home.

923
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:24,760
Speaker 2: He's got McVeigh in the headset, a much more easier

924
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 2: to read. He finds his targets much better. He goes

925
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:30,440
Speaker 2: through his progressions much easier at home. Again, this number,

926
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 2: for me, feels like a number that I typically would

927
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 2: see if he was on the road or something similar.

928
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 2: On the road. Feel like I'm getting about ten or

929
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:40,320
Speaker 2: fifteen yards in favor here, So give me over Jared

930
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 2: Goff passing yards two seventy six and a half.

931
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:45,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it. They have not looked great on offense,

932
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 1: and GoF hasn't looked good, But as you pointed out,

933
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 1: he's much worse on the road at Carolina, at Cleveland,

934
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:54,479
Speaker 1: he didn't look particularly good. He wasn't great at home

935
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 1: against the Saints. But that's a pretty tough defense going

936
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:00,040
Speaker 1: in Tampa Bay, as they showed you. I mean, I

937
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,840
Speaker 1: was a little excited about Tampa Bay's defense when I

938
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 1: looked at them against the Panthers, because Todd Bowles look

939
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 1: to be doing some work. They've got a few playmakers there.

940
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 1: But last week against you know, Daniel Jones, they were

941
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,320
Speaker 1: just totally exposed. So I do think that this is

942
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 1: kind of a quote unquote get right game for the

943
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 1: Rams offense, and I think most of it is going

944
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 1: to start with Jared Golf, So I do like that

945
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:23,839
Speaker 1: pick a lot for me. I'm going to go with

946
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 1: Marlon Mack getting at least one hundred yards rushing at

947
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 1: plus one seventy one. Now, this comes down to a

948
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 1: few factors. We talked about the fact that t Y

949
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 1: Hilton may miss this game. At the very least, he's

950
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,439
Speaker 1: probably going to be limited even if he does play,

951
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 1: so the pass catching options are a few. The Colts

952
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 1: have one of the best offensive lines in the league.

953
00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:43,440
Speaker 1: Mac ran for one hundred and thirty two yards against

954
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:45,759
Speaker 1: Oakland last year when they played, and the Raiders, as

955
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:48,759
Speaker 1: I mentioned earlier, are pretty banged up at linebackers, so

956
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 1: I see the Colts looking to exploit them that way.

957
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:52,719
Speaker 1: I think this is a game that the Colts try

958
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 1: to control from start to finish, and I think they're

959
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:57,279
Speaker 1: going to lean on the run. So I think that's

960
00:40:57,320 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 1: going to mean upwards of twenty carries for Mac, maybe

961
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:02,880
Speaker 1: closer to twenty five depending on how this game unfolds,

962
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 1: and I see him getting to roughly, you know, a

963
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 1: little bit over one hundred. I wouldn't go up to

964
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty five. That's way too much for me.

965
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,400
Speaker 1: But at plus one seventy one, I'm willing to take

966
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:12,280
Speaker 1: it at those outs.

967
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 2: I love the Rocks for that play from you. I mean, that's,

968
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:20,880
Speaker 2: you know, pretty ballsy. And I say ballsy because projecting

969
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,239
Speaker 2: run running backs to go over one hundred yards is

970
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:26,400
Speaker 2: always always an interesting one or an interesting enigma for

971
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:28,399
Speaker 2: that matter, regardless of who they're playing. Well, you bring

972
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 2: up so many good points on the matchup and the

973
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 2: opportunity there, especially at the dog price, for an awesome,

974
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 2: awesome payout if it hits, and you're right, if the

975
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 2: volume's there, the yardage is more than likely going to

976
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:38,839
Speaker 2: be there with it.

977
00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:40,840
Speaker 1: That's really what it comes down to in the end.

978
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:43,319
Speaker 1: I mean, at plus one seventy one, it's something where

979
00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:47,400
Speaker 1: again with the injuries that they have Hilton, I honestly

980
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 1: I think they rest Hilton here and I think they

981
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 1: get them ready for a big game at Kansas City

982
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 1: the following week. But either way, I think realistically they

983
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 1: think they're going to be able to win this game.

984
00:41:56,840 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 1: And again there are a lot of injuries there with

985
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 1: the linebackers for Oakland. I do see them leaning there

986
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:03,560
Speaker 1: on their run game. So you're going to take Jared

987
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 1: Goff over. I believe it was two hundred and seventy

988
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:07,799
Speaker 1: six and a half yards passing, and I will go

989
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 1: with Marlon Mack with over one hundred rushing yards. Well,

990
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 1: that's going to do it for today's show. JJ thanks

991
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 1: a lot for joining me. Remind everyone where they can

992
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 1: find more of you in your work.

993
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 2: Thanks so much, Dan. You guys can find me over

994
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:20,480
Speaker 2: on Twitter at Sports with Facts. You can also find

995
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:22,799
Speaker 2: me on YouTube. Just go ahead and type Sharpside or

996
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,000
Speaker 2: Sports with Facts. I do all my videos for them

997
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:26,560
Speaker 2: on sharp so I do about four to five videos

998
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:28,360
Speaker 2: a week, so you could see plenty of my face

999
00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 2: there or again, I'm pretty active on Twitter as well.

1000
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 2: I give away a ton of free plays every week.

1001
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:34,560
Speaker 2: So give me a follow at Sports with Facts on

1002
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:35,840
Speaker 2: Twitter and check me out on YouTube.

1003
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 1: Awesome, dij I really appreciate you coming on. I hope

1004
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:38,720
Speaker 1: we can do it again.

1005
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 2: Awesome. Thanks Ed.

1006
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,320
Speaker 1: I want to remind everyone about bet MGM, where you

1007
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 1: can place your first wager of up to five hundred

1008
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 1: dollars risk free, and don't forget to leave us a

1009
00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:49,360
Speaker 1: review on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of

1010
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 1: that review to contest at bettingpros dot com to be

1011
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,439
Speaker 1: entered into our Alvin Kamara signed helmet giveaway. Good luck

1012
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 1: with your wagers this week, and my friends, we'll be

1013
00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:12,839
Speaker 1: back breaking down the early lines next week to tell