1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: Hey Marlins fans, Welcome to a new edition of Big 2 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:10,000 Speaker 1: Fish Small Pod here on the Fish on First Podcast Channel, 3 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 1: presented by MPT College Consulting. Eli Sussman. Here posting my 4 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: first spot small pod in a while, first small pod 5 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: of the month of August, final two months of the season. 6 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: Trade deadline has passed. We have a whole lot of 7 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 1: content on the deadline that's already gone up, that will 8 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,640 Speaker 1: continue going up across our platforms. I needed a focus 9 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 1: on a guy that was here before the deadline, that 10 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: remains here after the deadline, and that will hopefully remain 11 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:38,199 Speaker 1: atop the Marvelins lineup for years to come. Xavier Edwards. 12 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 1: July of twenty twenty four was his first ever complete 13 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 1: month as a major league regular, right because he was 14 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 1: up last year for the Marlins in twenty twenty three, 15 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: a couple different stints in May, and then he was 16 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: on the roster for most of September. Got quite a 17 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 1: bit of action there, but not on the consistent every 18 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: single day base. Here was the first time soon in 19 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 1: the aftermath of Tim Anderson's departure of the Marlins had 20 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: a void at shortstop. Edwards continue to rank at Triple 21 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 1: A he's gotten that opportunity finally in July played almost 22 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 1: every single game at shortstop, and then after the trade 23 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 1: of Jism Junior, just the last few days, he has 24 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 1: now moved to the number one spot in the Marlins lineup. 25 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 1: He has gone so much better than I think anybody 26 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:27,320 Speaker 1: could have even fantasized. Xavier Edwards in the month of 27 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 1: July for the Marlins hit three ninety five. If you 28 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: are watching on YouTube, you see the National League qualified 29 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 1: leaders in batting average during the month of July. Edwards 30 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: at three to ninety five, thirty eight points ahead of 31 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 1: anybody else. And now the leaders in this category will 32 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 1: show you how a monthly batting average leader might not 33 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 1: be super indicative of somebody's true talent. It's Edwards, it's 34 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 1: kateel Marte, he's a stud, then one Yepez reclamation project 35 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: for the Nationals, Juhenio Suarez of the d Backs, and 36 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 1: then Brenton Dole of the Rockies. It's a small sample size, 37 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 1: so I'm not going to overreact too much. I just 38 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 1: need to get into why it is so thrilling what 39 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 1: we saw from him, not just in the batting average department, 40 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:16,799 Speaker 1: but as an all round player. In the estimation of fangrafts, 41 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:20,959 Speaker 1: one point three wins above replacement during July. That extrapolates 42 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 1: to nearly eight wins over a full season. That's MVP 43 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 1: pace to put in perspective, and naturally so, if you 44 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 1: were playing every single day bat in your four hundred, 45 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 1: stealing a bunch of bases, nine stolen bases for Edwards, 46 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 1: right on par with the trajectory the pace that he 47 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:40,800 Speaker 1: set in upper minors as well, and you do it 48 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: at a premium up the middle position, then you are 49 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: exceptionally valuable. Here some elements of this that I just 50 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 1: think are really sustainable moving forward. When it comes to 51 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: his discipline as a hitter. Last year with Edwards, for 52 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 1: whatever reason, he was just way too antsy at the plate. 53 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 1: We saw at the major league level only drew walks 54 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 1: in three point six percent of his plate appearances, about 55 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 1: three and a half pitches per played appearance league average 56 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:09,920 Speaker 1: three point nine, he was at three point five to five. 57 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 1: And that's been an exciting change that we've seen from 58 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 1: him already. A lot more disciplines, especially early in counts. 59 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 1: He's not nervous to hit when he's down in the count, 60 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: averaging overall four point oh six pitches per played appearance. 61 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 1: That's well above the major leagu gaverage. Working deep counts 62 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 1: in a way that has positive rippel effects on the 63 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 1: rest of a lineup, not just on the player himself. 64 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: When you're fatiguing a pitcher, especially in this era of 65 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 1: the pitch clock, making guy throw extra pitches has intangible 66 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 1: cumulative value for the rest of the team. Touched on 67 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 1: the base running already, he is still a plus runner 68 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: right there. He ranks only in the seventy third percentile 69 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 1: in sprint speed. His true speed is faster than that. 70 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 1: We remember, of course, hit for the cycle one of 71 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 1: his final games of the month of July, just this 72 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 1: past Sunday in the final play in infield single, where 73 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 1: his sprint speed was shade below thirty feet per second 74 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 1: as a whole, averaging twenty eight, but he could get 75 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: up to thirty what qualifies as a bolt in baseball 76 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 1: servant terminology. He can really bolt when he needs to. 77 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:18,719 Speaker 1: For this team, he's been hitting well from both sides, 78 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 1: so he u is a switch hitter. Lefty side is 79 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:24,600 Speaker 1: his best side hitting aginst right handed pitching, but he's 80 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 1: been really just as good hitting from the opposite side 81 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:32,280 Speaker 1: of the plate. So far in this sample this year 82 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 1: in the major leagues, Edwards has a nine to thirty 83 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 1: two OPS from the left side. He has a nine 84 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 1: to twenty seven OPS from the right side. Couldn't be 85 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: more comparable in that kind of sample if you absolutely 86 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 1: tried to do it. He's just been almost flawless and 87 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 1: so consistent reaching base in. Off the top of my head, 88 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 1: I think all but two or three of the games 89 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 1: that he played in the month of July, every single 90 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 1: game doing something post there. The big question is the 91 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 1: defense at this point and why they even bothered to 92 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 1: sign Tim Anderson in the first place in free agency. 93 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: Why Edwards hasn't been seen as a prototypical utility guy 94 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 1: that can contribute at that spot because of his arm strength. 95 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 1: He's got a below average arm he has for a 96 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: while now. He was optimistic entering this year that he 97 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: had found a way to get back up to what 98 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 1: arm strength that he used to have earlier in his 99 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: baseball career, and for watching him play that is still 100 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 1: a challenge. By Statcast's estimation, he ranks in the twenty 101 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:40,800 Speaker 1: first percentile in arm strength mettering the strongest throws that 102 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 1: he makes. It's always gonna be a challenge for plays 103 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:46,720 Speaker 1: going to his backhand side. There's just not There's gonna 104 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 1: be times where on well placed grounders right there that 105 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 1: runners just outrun the ball. For lack of a better word, 106 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 1: You're gonna have more infield singles than you might expect. 107 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 1: What he's done so far is damage control on plays 108 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:02,479 Speaker 1: like that, where at least he keeps his throws accurate. 109 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 1: He'd rather underthrow the ball than overthrow it, so to 110 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 1: this point committed two errors in twenty six games, which 111 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:12,599 Speaker 1: is kind of normal for a typical shortstop. He doesn't 112 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 1: try too hard to overcompensate for the below average tool 113 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 1: that he has there. When it comes to his arm, 114 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,160 Speaker 1: I thought his hands have been pretty good. His anticipation 115 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 1: of certain hops have been also very good. His tagging 116 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 1: has been okay, perfectly fine when it comes to plays 117 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 1: at second base having to apply the tag right there, 118 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 1: and his range is solid so far in my estimation, 119 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:41,719 Speaker 1: there's some pessimism in a small sample from Baseball Savon's 120 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 1: estimation of fielding run value. They have him at minus 121 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 1: two runs in that sample, and if he keeps up 122 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:50,479 Speaker 1: that pace, he'd be one of the weaker defensive shortstops 123 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 1: in the game. By defensive run saves, he actually rates 124 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:56,600 Speaker 1: out as a plus one so far in the sample 125 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 1: that we've seen from him at the big legue level 126 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: this season. It looks really fringy. I don't think it's 127 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: a coincidence that the Marlins acquire Connor Norby at the 128 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 1: trade deadline and the Trevor Rodgers deal a guy who 129 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 1: most people forecast it to be a second baseman instead 130 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 1: of calling him up right now to play second base 131 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: alongside Edwards. He's down at Triple A Jacksonville, and the 132 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 1: idea is going to have him getting a lot of 133 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: reps at third base. So that may be a signal 134 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 1: about how there's still a little apprehensive about Edwards at 135 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 1: short and thinking, hey, he might move over to second 136 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: base moving forward, and Norby, who they see as a 137 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 1: potential everyday player, will move him to third base, and 138 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 1: how that will play out when you're at second base 139 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 1: kind of count kind of obvious to most people that 140 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 1: the arm is not as much of a disadvantage to 141 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:46,720 Speaker 1: throw us the first are a whole lot shorter. Yeah, 142 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: the responsibility is just not quite as as heavy on 143 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 1: a player when you're playing second base as opposed to 144 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 1: shortstop right there. That's gonna be the big question from 145 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: him moving forward. I should have touched on a little 146 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 1: bit more on the offensive side though, about why all 147 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 1: these hits are falling for him. It's more than just 148 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 1: being a good bunter. That is part of it as well, 149 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: is that he buys extra hits for himself with his 150 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: dexterity as a bunch being able to place the ball 151 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:14,679 Speaker 1: exactly where he wants to and beat that out for hits. 152 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 1: But I think the more exciting development is the trajectory 153 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 1: of the ball off his bat and have always cut 154 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 1: down on the grounders and really maximized line drive rate. 155 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 1: So there's a few different estimations of line drive rate 156 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:32,080 Speaker 1: that you could get from either Baseball Savona or Fangrafts. 157 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 1: Just going with the fangraft standard, he's at twenty five 158 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 1: point six percent line drive rate so far this year, 159 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 1: and if that was he had enough to qualify as 160 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,200 Speaker 1: a hitter over the full length season, that would be 161 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 1: the fifth highest line drive rate in baseball. That is 162 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: one of the crucial keys as to what made Luis 163 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:54,839 Speaker 1: arise such a singular player for this team and somebody 164 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 1: who repeatedly gets so many hits year in year out 165 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 1: because of the line drives. Those are the balls that 166 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: are gonna fall either in front or right behind the outfielders. 167 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:08,719 Speaker 1: They have the highest hit probability when you have line 168 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:12,240 Speaker 1: drives arise by Fangrafts estimation of twenty eight percent line 169 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 1: drive percentage this year, then the next highest twenty six 170 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: percent is justin Turner show, hey Otani Mason Win. Edwards 171 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 1: would slot in at the number five spot on that 172 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: entire list among qualified big leaguers if he had enough 173 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:30,200 Speaker 1: playing time at twenty five point six percent. So the 174 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 1: ground ball rates have come down and the fly ball 175 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:34,959 Speaker 1: rates have come down, distinguishing between the line drives and 176 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 1: fly balls. I know he hit that home run in 177 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 1: Milwaukee to complete the cycle, there are going to be 178 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:43,840 Speaker 1: very few of those. Just another reason why his prospect 179 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 1: stock always had a ceiling. Because Edwards's has very low power. 180 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 1: You want to call it twenty grade generous, maybe thirty, 181 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:54,720 Speaker 1: It's only going to be a handful of home runs 182 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 1: every single year, and he's gonna have to pull the 183 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 1: ball to get it over the wall. If not that, 184 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 1: if he doesn't really barrel, he doesn't want to hit 185 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 1: the ball get underneath it whatsoever, because it's just not 186 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:05,320 Speaker 1: going to carry. Those are going to become outs. He 187 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 1: wants to have line drives, and right now he has 188 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 1: really mastered that trajectory of his swing, like getting that 189 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 1: launch angle on average at eight percent, that is a 190 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 1: pretty perfect where you get it out of the infield, 191 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: yet in front of the outfielders it's going to fall in. 192 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: And he has the speed to's rarned a lot of 193 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:29,599 Speaker 1: singles into doubles, doubles into triples. Just an absolutely ecstatic 194 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 1: developments that we've seen from Edwards. It could not have 195 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,319 Speaker 1: gone any better for him in his first full month. 196 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 1: I think the questions about his defensive home persist. At 197 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 1: the very least, He's checking so many boxes that you 198 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 1: want from a top of the order hitter that you 199 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 1: have here. Among the guys remaining on this team physician 200 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:52,199 Speaker 1: player wise, even including the prospects that they just acquired, 201 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 1: I wouldn't put it a single one of them as 202 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 1: a more likely building buck for this Marlins organization than Edwards. 203 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 1: I know it's a small sample, but to my delight, 204 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 1: so many of the things he was doing well at 205 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: triple a are translating at the major league level so far? 206 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 1: What do you think anybody else there as optimistic as 207 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 1: I am. I'm sure you can poke holes in what 208 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 1: he's doing as well. It'll come back down to earth 209 00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: a little bit. One of the dust settles. I do 210 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 1: think this is a big part of the Marlins future 211 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 1: and somebody that has surpassed any reasonable expectations for what 212 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 1: he could look like now as an everyday big leaguer. 213 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in. This is Vanila Susman. Let me 214 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 1: know in your comments on the site on social media 215 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: what do you think of Edwards and where his career 216 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 1: is going after this truly amazing month of July that 217 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:46,840 Speaker 1: he just had. The show presented by MPT College Consulting. 218 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 1: Go to MPT College Consulting dot com so learn more 219 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 1: about their services, schedule a free consultation, whole out more 220 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: post trade deadline reaction and also looking at other young 221 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 1: players like Edwards that could be part of the Marlin's 222 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 1: long term future. From the Fish on First staff coming 223 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 1: up across all of our platforms. Thanks for tuning in 224 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 1: to what we do and supporting what we do as well. 225 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: Go Fish