1 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:09,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. A month into the 2 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 1: Iran war, the costs are mounting, and the Trump administration 3 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:17,479 Speaker 1: continues to send mixed messages about when and how the 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,799 Speaker 1: war will end. Gas prices in the US climbed above 5 00:00:20,800 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 1: an average of four dollars a gallon on Monday for 6 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: the first time since August of twenty twenty two. Jet 7 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 1: fuel has searched, and in a post on truth Social 8 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: this morning, President Trump suggested countries facing shortages buy oil 9 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 1: from the United States or quote build up some delayed courage, 10 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: go to the strait and just take it. The post 11 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 1: comes amid reporting from The Wall Street Journal that the 12 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 1: President has told aids he's willing to end the war 13 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 1: even if the strait of her moves remains largely closed. 14 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 1: The US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said today that diplomatic 15 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 1: talks with Iran are ongoing. 16 00:00:57,520 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 2: We would much prefer to get a deal. 17 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: Rom was willing to relinquish material they have and ambitions 18 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:04,320 Speaker 1: they have. 19 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 2: Open this great, that's the goal. 20 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 1: Hexath said he thought the talks were quote gaining strength, 21 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 1: but that the US would continue it strikes if a 22 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:14,400 Speaker 1: deal isn't reached. 23 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:16,840 Speaker 2: We don't want to have to do more militarily than 24 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 2: we have to. But I didn't mean it flippantly when 25 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 2: I said, in the meantime, we'll negotiate with bombs. 26 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 1: The flurry of headlines on Tuesday comes on the heels 27 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 1: of another threat the President made against Iran. On Monday. 28 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:31,319 Speaker 1: He posted on truth social that if the Iranian regime 29 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 1: fails to reach a deal shortly, the United States would 30 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 1: obliterate all of Iran's electric generating plants, oil wells, carg Island, 31 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,479 Speaker 1: where most of Iran's oil is processed for shipping, and 32 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 1: possibly all of the country's desalination plants. 33 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 2: It's an extraordinary threat in truth. Iran's reaction to that 34 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 2: is likely to cause more problems when it comes to 35 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 2: desalination plants. 36 00:01:56,400 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 1: Peter Martin covers defense, policy and intelligence for Bloomberg. He 37 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 1: says desalination infrastructure is critical to the countries of the Gulf. 38 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 2: Tens of millions of people across the region are dependent 39 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 2: on the desalinization process. 40 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: An American president threatening to destroy desalination plants is unprecedented, 41 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:18,920 Speaker 1: and if it happened, it could be a violation of 42 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:23,639 Speaker 1: international law. It could spark a humanitarian crisis. 43 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 2: I think it's fair to say that it's something that 44 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 2: no other president within living memory would have done. But 45 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:33,679 Speaker 2: That's been true of a lot of Trump's actions so far. 46 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 2: You know, successive US administrations have talked about whether or 47 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 2: not military action against Iran could work and have decided 48 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:45,360 Speaker 2: ultimately that it wouldn't the cost would be too high. 49 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 2: President Trump has made a different calculation, and so I 50 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 2: think it would be naive to suggest that he might 51 00:02:52,520 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 2: not also take surprising and controversial steps in this case too. 52 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:03,639 Speaker 1: I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the Big Take from 53 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,519 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News today. On the show, we look at the 54 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: vital yet vulnerable infrastructure that makes life possible in the 55 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:14,360 Speaker 1: Middle East and what would happen if desalination plants become 56 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 1: targets in the war with Iran. The countries that ring 57 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: the western side of the Persian Gulf, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, 58 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: and the United Arab Emirates are among the most water 59 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 1: scarce countries in the world. 60 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 2: And as a result of that, countries across the region 61 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 2: are reliant on desalinization to obtain drinking water and other 62 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 2: water for commercial and industrial uses. To sort of put 63 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 2: it in context a little bit, around forty percent of 64 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 2: the water that is used by the UAE comes from desalination, 65 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 2: about seventy percent the Saudi Arabia and actually ninety percent 66 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 2: for Kuwait. So it's absolutely crucial to civilian and industrial life. 67 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 1: Across the Persian Gulf. What are the alternatives to desalination? 68 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: What other water sources are there? 69 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 2: There's very limited fresh water in the Gulf. There are 70 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 2: river sources, some countries hold underground reserves which have enough 71 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,279 Speaker 2: water for a few days or a week, but really 72 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:26,600 Speaker 2: there is no alternative in most of the golf countries. 73 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: So Peter, let's get a sense of the history of 74 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 1: this technology in the golf. What was it like there 75 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 1: before desalination and when did the first desalination plants come online? 76 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:41,039 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the technique has been around for millennia. 77 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 2: It's just a basic basically, it's the process of removing 78 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 2: salt from seawater and making that water drinkable. There were 79 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 2: sort of two techniques which dominated for a long time. 80 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 2: One was thermal desalination, which I can remember being shown 81 00:04:57,520 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 2: as a kid in elementary school, which is where you 82 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,840 Speaker 2: eat water steam evaporates and then you capture the steam. 83 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 2: And there's another process called reverse osmosis, which is now 84 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 2: the dominant technology and the one that's spread all across 85 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 2: the Middle East, which is where you use pressure to 86 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:20,360 Speaker 2: push seawater through membrane and you remove the salt from it. 87 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 2: So basically, before the advent of this technology and its 88 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 2: widespread use, there's no way that golf countries could have 89 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,359 Speaker 2: supported the kinds of populations that they have now. I 90 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:33,839 Speaker 2: think all of the golf countries are incredibly dependent on 91 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:36,600 Speaker 2: the technology, and without it, they wouldn't have the kind 92 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 2: of tourism service financial industries that you see today. 93 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 1: How reliant is desalination infrastructure on other kinds of infrastructure 94 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: like energy and oil infrastructure, which was also talked about 95 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,719 Speaker 1: in Trump's truth social post as a potential target in 96 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 1: this war. 97 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:57,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, so desalination plants have a kind of symbiotic relationship 98 00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 2: with energy and power plants. The pressure that's required to 99 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 2: push water through those filtration membranes and to remove the 100 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:10,039 Speaker 2: salt from the water is incredibly energy intensive, so they're 101 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 2: often built next to power plants. That makes them very expensive. 102 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:17,840 Speaker 2: Some estimates I've heard put desalinated water at about twenty 103 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 2: five times more expensive than other sources around most of 104 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 2: the world, but in the Gulf, the region has a 105 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 2: huge advantage in that it's endowed with massive amounts of 106 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 2: oil and other hydrocarbons, bringing down some of those costs. 107 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:34,279 Speaker 1: So, Peter, I mean you laid out how many people 108 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 1: across the Gulf States depend on desalination. But this problem 109 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 1: isn't limited to the Gulf, right. Other countries in the 110 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 1: Middle East also depend on this technology, including Israel, which 111 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 1: is an active party in this war. Israel gets about 112 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 1: seventy percent of its water from desalination plants. So how 113 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:56,839 Speaker 1: vulnerable is all of this infrastructure in the Gulf in 114 00:06:56,960 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: Israel to being damaged in this war? 115 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the infrastructure is vulnerable across the entire region. 116 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 2: Israel has excellent air defenses compared to many of its neighbors. 117 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 2: It also has alternative sources of water. There's a major 118 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 2: lake that it relies on, and it's worked for decades 119 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:23,080 Speaker 2: really to reduce its vulnerability to water scarcity. So if 120 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 2: a desalination plant were to be taken offline in Israel, 121 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 2: it would be a problem, but not a catastrophe. In 122 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 2: the same way that it might be the say. 123 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 1: Kuwait, And I feel like this has all been building 124 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 1: to the question of Iran. Can you walk through how 125 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 1: dependent Iran is on desalination and on desalination infrastructure. 126 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 2: Iran is not particularly dependent on it. It has desalination 127 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 2: plants and it would be disruptive to take them offline. 128 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 2: The country has suffered from drought in recent months, but 129 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 2: now as we head to the springtime, there's access to 130 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 2: fresh water from rain, has multiple rivers, and so I 131 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 2: don't think that it's an existential threat to you rule. 132 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 2: Isn't i ran in the same way as it is 133 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 2: to it's Arab golf neighbors. 134 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 1: But if President Trump does follow through on his threat 135 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: to possibly destroy Iran's desalination infrastructure, it could trigger a 136 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: dangerous chain reaction, and it wouldn't be the first time 137 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 1: a desalination plant in the Gulf had been targeted in war. 138 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 1: After the break, we'll look at exactly what the human 139 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:49,319 Speaker 1: and economic costs could be if it happened again. Why 140 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: are desalination plants attractive targets for military action? Why have 141 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 1: they become targets before? 142 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:03,079 Speaker 2: In theoretical term, they're large fixed targets that are easy 143 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 2: to locate, They're difficult to replace quickly. They can put 144 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:13,239 Speaker 2: tremendous stress on any government that's reliant on that technology 145 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 2: if you remove it, because your civilian population is then 146 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 2: put at risk. It has happened before. During the First 147 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 2: Gulf War, Iraq targeted Kuwates desalination plants, taking some of 148 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 2: them offline, but in truth, they have rarely been targeted. 149 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 2: The Geneva Convention makes it clear that it's illegal to 150 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:39,560 Speaker 2: target them because they're necessary for civilians to survive. So, 151 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 2: you know, they're relatively easy, large targets that are simple 152 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 2: to hit. It's just that the legality of that is 153 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 2: very problematic. 154 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean you mentioned the Kuwait attack. What 155 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 1: does the fallout from that tell us about the stakes 156 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:58,600 Speaker 1: of potential strikes on desalination plants in this war. 157 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 2: Yeah. Iraq targeted some of Kuwait's desalination plants in the 158 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:06,839 Speaker 2: First Gulf War, taking some of them offline and reducing 159 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 2: the access of Quait's population to drinking water. Suppliers were 160 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 2: then brought in from Saudi Arabia and other neighboring countries, 161 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 2: and that the US also helped with some of that response, 162 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 2: But in truth, you know, it's difficult to maintain reserves 163 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 2: for large civilian populations for long periods of time. 164 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 1: And if a plant like this is attacked, how long 165 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 1: could it take to get back online? 166 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 2: Yeah? So, experts I've spoken to say that, you know, 167 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 2: minor damage could be repaired in months, perhaps weeks, but 168 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 2: the larger scale damage would require years to repair. 169 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: What happens if water begins to run out in these 170 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 1: countries see shortages? What are the humanitarian implications of that? 171 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 2: Yeah so, I mean the most immediate result would be 172 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 2: that households would begin to run short on water, and 173 00:10:57,000 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 2: that could happen within a matter of days. Typically governments, 174 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:03,400 Speaker 2: you would expect them to start doing things like rationing 175 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 2: water use, restricting commercial use, perhaps distributing bottled water to populations. 176 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 2: And if it were to persist for a long time, 177 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 2: I think that probably evacuations would be considered. 178 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 1: And from an economic standpoint, which parts of these Golf states' 179 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 1: economies are most vulnerable? Again, if a plant like this 180 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 1: were to be taken out or even damaged, if you. 181 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 2: Think of somewhere like Dubai with a massive urban population, 182 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:38,079 Speaker 2: an economy which runs on services finance, tourism, the life 183 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:41,360 Speaker 2: of the population there would be very difficult to sustain. 184 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 2: All of the industry surrounding it would be difficult to sustain. Essentially, 185 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 2: these economies would come grinding to a whole without the 186 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 2: ability to obtain the water that they need. 187 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:58,079 Speaker 1: Given the extremely high stakes of keeping these desalination plants running, 188 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: I'm wondering what golf countries are doing to protect their 189 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 1: water supplies and their manufacturing facilities right now, and how 190 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 1: well those efforts have been working. 191 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 2: Experts that I've spoken to say that there's not really 192 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 2: very much that they can do to protect the facilities. 193 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 2: They're large, they're exposed, they're quite technically fragile, there's a 194 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 2: lot of sensitive technology inside, and you know, the countries 195 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:27,520 Speaker 2: themselves are protected by air defenses. Most of the Gulf 196 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:31,160 Speaker 2: States have a pretty good record of shooting down incoming 197 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 2: Iranian missiles and drunes, but it's not a perfect record. 198 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 2: Lots is still getting through and there's not really much 199 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 2: that can be done to harden them in the short 200 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 2: term other than just trying to shoot down missiles and drugs. 201 00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 1: Striking desalination plans would be a violation of the Geneva convention, 202 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 1: it's a war crime. What would the consequences be if 203 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: a country or a government like the US did target 204 00:12:57,880 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: desalination plans in this war? 205 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:02,560 Speaker 2: Think truth is that we don't know. We'd be entering 206 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 2: uncharted territory from the outset. This war has been, you know, 207 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 2: questioned by some of the US's closest allies when it 208 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 2: comes to whether or not American actions have been legal. 209 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:20,439 Speaker 2: US strikes on desalination plants would certainly invite that kind 210 00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 2: of questioning, as would Iranian retaliation. But you know, I 211 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 2: think a lot of people feel like we've got to 212 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 2: a point here where we're kind of an outrage fatigue. 213 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 2: I'm not sure what would happen in practical terms other 214 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 2: than a huge international outcry. 215 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 1: Are there risks that even accidentally or as a symptom 216 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 1: of this broader conflict in the Middle East, that desalination 217 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 1: plants might be damaged, whether through strikes from around the 218 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:57,559 Speaker 1: US or other regional players, And what are the implications 219 00:13:57,600 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 1: of that. 220 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, there's absolutely that if energy facilities were to be targeted, 221 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 2: there's the potential that that damage could take desalination plants 222 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:10,480 Speaker 2: offline because they're so energy intensive and There's also, of course, 223 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 2: the possibility of collateral damage. Trust on both sides in 224 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,840 Speaker 2: this war is running pretty low at the moment, and 225 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 2: so it would be quite difficult for either side to 226 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 2: convince the other that that kind of damage had been accidental, 227 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 2: and that raises the possibility of escalation quite considerably. 228 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:32,240 Speaker 1: Well, We've already seen one example of a desalination plant 229 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 1: being damaged in this conflict. The Iranian government has said 230 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 1: that a desalination plant was damaged on Kesum Island in 231 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 1: the Strait of Hermos, disrupting the water supply to thirty villages. 232 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: How did Iran and the US respond to that incident 233 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: and how much does this raise the risk of future 234 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 1: attacks on desalination plants in this war? 235 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 2: I think a lot depends on whether President Trump goes 236 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 2: through with his most recent threats. Iran said that its 237 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 2: facility had been hit in early March. The US responded 238 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 2: by saying that the facility was not deliberately targeted, and 239 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 2: exactly what happens kind of remains in dispute. But Iran 240 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:19,280 Speaker 2: did retaliate by hitting a facility in the Gulf state 241 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 2: of Bahrain and saying subsequently that any further attacks on 242 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 2: Iranian energy infrastructure could be met by attacks on golf 243 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 2: desalination facilities. So I think it's something that both sides 244 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 2: have kind of put in play, but so far on 245 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 2: the ground there's been a reasonable degree of restraint between 246 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 2: both sides, precisely, I think because the humanitarian consequences would 247 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 2: be so grave and the reputational cost to either side 248 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 2: for actually carrying out activities which is so crucial to 249 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 2: civilian life, would be pretty high. 250 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 1: This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. 251 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 1: To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access 252 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 1: to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg 253 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 1: dot com slash podcast offer. If you liked this episode, 254 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 1: make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take wherever 255 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. 256 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.