WEBVTT - MLB Futures Mid-Season Update (Ep. 92) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:15.000 It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 0:00:15.800 --> 0:00:18.279 Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey p 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:21.320 joe Pisapia, and we got a great show for you today. 0:00:21.440 --> 0:00:25.360 As always, today we are officially halfway through the Major 0:00:25.400 --> 0:00:28.840 League Baseball season, and that means it's time to take 0:00:28.880 --> 0:00:31.080 a look at where we stand with some of our 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:36.080 preseason predictions, some of our preseason awards, and whether or 0:00:36.120 --> 0:00:38.519 not we still feel confident in some of those wagers, 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:40.400 and maybe we want to take our chips and put 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:42.879 them some other places. And of course, if you recall 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:46.320 when we did this before the season started, my illustrious partner, 0:00:46.400 --> 0:00:49.640 the EIC of Fantasy Pros, Dan Harris, my co host 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:52.839 from leading off on Fantasy Pros, we sat down, we 0:00:52.880 --> 0:00:55.680 gave you the goods and overall things went pretty well. 0:00:55.720 --> 0:00:58.600 But we are sticklers for rules and we want to 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:01.600 make sure that we're holding ourselves accountable. So Dan Harris, 0:01:01.600 --> 0:01:04.399 I hope you have your accountability hat on today because 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:06.759 we're talking Major League Baseball halfway through the year. 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:09.120 All I know is I never once said that a 0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:12.400 bet on Chohatani to win the MVP was wasting money. 0:01:12.600 --> 0:01:14.560 Never said it. I don't know who would have said that. 0:01:14.560 --> 0:01:17.560 That's a ridiculous thing to have said. So don't worry. 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:19.760 I'm totally ready to be accountable for things that I 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:21.600 actually said, not that which I never said. 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:23.720 Now I kind of want to go back. Did you 0:01:23.840 --> 0:01:27.160 really say that? No, I didn't think it quite said that. 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:30.240 I completely poo pooed the idea that he could win. 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:32.640 I did it on our Fans Bros. Livestream or did 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:35.560 it here on our Betting Pros podcast. I was like, 0:01:35.600 --> 0:01:37.760 it was fine to sprinkle a little something, but I 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:40.520 did not view it as a realistic possibility. And now 0:01:40.640 --> 0:01:44.080 absolute injury, it's hard to see it not happening. So, yeah, 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:46.520 there are misses, but there are plenty of hits as well. 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:47.880 So let's get into it all. 0:01:48.000 --> 0:01:50.320 Right here we go, So let's start with the big ones. 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:53.320 Let's start with MVP. In fact, let's start with the 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:55.840 American League because right now, if you go to Bettingpros 0:01:55.840 --> 0:01:58.000 dot com, you can see the consensus of everything that 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:00.440 we're talking about, and maybe, just maybe, in some of 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:03.040 these betting houses you can find some odds that are 0:02:03.040 --> 0:02:05.440 a little bit better than even because that's what you 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:07.480 got right now? For Showey Otani, who I think start 0:02:07.520 --> 0:02:09.760 out the year somewhere in the twenty five to one 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:12.200 range and then it crept to ten and then started 0:02:12.240 --> 0:02:14.000 to get real interesting in the eight and a half, seven, 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:16.440 six and a half. Now it is dead even for 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:20.000 Otani and vlad Guerrero Junior. Even Vlad Guerrero Junior has 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:22.160 come out and said, I don't even know how you 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:24.960 can compare me to what that guy's doing. JJ Watt 0:02:25.000 --> 0:02:27.519 takes to Twitter. He doesn't even play baseball and he's 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:30.040 talking about this. Are you guys crazy or are you drunk? 0:02:30.040 --> 0:02:32.000 Have you seen what this guy is doing? The question 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:34.880 is would you get involved in the even bet and 0:02:34.919 --> 0:02:37.280 there's somebody even else out there worth putting money on. 0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:40.360 I don't think there is, even barring injury, even with 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:43.160 missing time. I don't even know if you could put 0:02:43.160 --> 0:02:45.760 anyone's stats against what Atani's doing because he has a 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:48.560 category that no other hitter does, and they're all the 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:51.919 pitching categories and that's the difference. So even money right 0:02:51.960 --> 0:02:54.840 now not a lot of value. But is it worth 0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:57.880 the investment because of the difference between these two entities? 0:02:59.400 --> 0:03:01.600 I guess to answer the second part. First, no, there 0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:03.880 is nobody else who I can see factoring into this race. 0:03:03.960 --> 0:03:05.800 I mean, it would take both of these guys essentially 0:03:05.840 --> 0:03:09.160 getting injured for the rest of the season to really 0:03:09.320 --> 0:03:11.560 make it happen. I mean, who who's the third favorite 0:03:11.560 --> 0:03:15.160 here is? It's Xander Bogart's He's having a great season 0:03:15.200 --> 0:03:17.040 and I've got him at plus twenty eight hundred and 0:03:17.040 --> 0:03:20.400 our betting pros consensus rankings. Sure, that's fine, but there's 0:03:20.520 --> 0:03:22.800 just no chance. I mean, and again, the Red Sox 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:26.200 are not succeeding because of Xander Bogarts. J D. Martinez 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:30.919 is having a fabulous bounced back season. Rafel Devers also exceptional. 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:34.120 You know, even Hunter renfro Is where is betting Alex Berdugo. 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:36.880 It's a team effort with that, as opposed to the Angels, 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:39.400 where you've got Otani who is doing historic stuff, and 0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:42.000 the Blue Jays, which again you've got Bobaschett. But Vladdie 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:46.360 is playing out of his absolute mind. So look for me. Fine, 0:03:46.440 --> 0:03:48.520 if I think Otani is gonna win it regardless of 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:50.640 where the Angels finished, just because of the historic nature 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:52.480 of what he's doing. The only thing that I would 0:03:52.560 --> 0:03:54.600 really do at this point, if I were going to 0:03:54.600 --> 0:03:57.320 get involved, is look for the different books. You know, 0:03:57.320 --> 0:03:59.640 again at betting Pros we show the odds of different books. 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:02.000 You want to go with plus money at Chotani at 0:04:02.000 --> 0:04:04.160 plus one oh five on DraftKings. If you could then 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:06.920 also sprinkle a little bit on the plus one ten 0:04:07.120 --> 0:04:09.880 on Vladdie at FanDuel, go ahead and do that so 0:04:09.920 --> 0:04:12.800 you can probably almost certainly lack in a very minor profit. 0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:14.880 Other than that, just stay away. One of these two 0:04:14.880 --> 0:04:16.320 guys are gonna win it, and I don't really think 0:04:16.360 --> 0:04:17.920 it's worth it at this point. What did you get 0:04:17.920 --> 0:04:19.320 them at earlier in the season. 0:04:19.880 --> 0:04:24.800 I locked him in in season a month and a 0:04:24.839 --> 0:04:28.320 half into the season, I locked in Otani at six fifty. Okay, 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:30.320 that's that's where I got Autani because I felt like, 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:33.080 this is the last time it's ever gonna be this 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:35.760 high a number. Yeah, it's just gonna be. And I waited, 0:04:35.800 --> 0:04:37.719 and I was really tempted at I think it was 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:39.920 nine and a half where I started to go, oh, 0:04:39.960 --> 0:04:41.360 I really want to do this. But I had a 0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:43.159 little bit of discipline and it cost me some money. 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:45.840 But you know what, I didn't wait too long where 0:04:45.839 --> 0:04:47.920 it costs me all the money potentially, I'm going to 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:51.719 disagree respectfully with Dan. Don't sprinkle any lad sprinkle it 0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:54.480 all o time. This is a special, especially this week 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:57.039 in front of the New York media doing what he's doing. 0:04:57.360 --> 0:04:59.840 It's a it's a media award, don't forget that. And 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:03.120 media right now is loving the sho Heiyo Tani show. 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:05.160 Let's talk about the National League a little bit more 0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:08.479 open here the consensus betting line here, Jacob deGrom the 0:05:08.600 --> 0:05:12.839 pitcher still plus one twenty five. You have Fernando Tattis 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:15.279 Junior plus one seventy five. Then Akunya has fallen down 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:18.240 to plus four hundred. He originally was the leader about 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:20.280 a month ago when last time we checked in on this, 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:22.320 and then he got the Jesse Winkers and some other 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:24.840 guys like Cassie Allos at thirty and above. It's really 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:27.040 probably a three person race. But I will say this, 0:05:27.800 --> 0:05:29.359 I think this is the time to get involved in 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:32.279 Fernando Tattis Junior. He's an everyday player. The Padres have 0:05:32.279 --> 0:05:35.320 played very good baseball. The narrative is there with the injury, 0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:37.800 and as much as personally I love Degram and what 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:39.880 he's doing, and it's spectacular. You can make the case 0:05:39.920 --> 0:05:42.839 for him. He's not an everyday player, and in a 0:05:42.920 --> 0:05:45.680 year where you have somebody performing as well as Tatis is, 0:05:46.240 --> 0:05:48.120 I think you have to think about that. But maybe 0:05:48.160 --> 0:05:50.800 you feel differently. Is de Grom transcendent enough for you 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:54.480 in terms of a pitching season where even if Tatis 0:05:54.520 --> 0:05:57.160 hits forty home runs and seals twenty five bases, you're 0:05:57.200 --> 0:05:58.960 still gonna give it to de Grom because he's been 0:05:58.960 --> 0:05:59.360 that good. 0:05:59.680 --> 0:06:02.039 I think think the issue with MVP, as you mentioned, 0:06:02.160 --> 0:06:04.680 is it's a media award, right, we can't quantify it. 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:06.440 It's not an over under, right, we can't say this 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:09.240 is what we think. It's what's going to happen. If 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:13.559 Tatis stays healthy and the Padres win that division, then yeah, 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:16.680 he's got a very decent shot at it. But the 0:06:16.720 --> 0:06:19.440 Mets don't score runs, and I think they're what seven 0:06:19.440 --> 0:06:21.360 games over five hundred right now, and I think they're 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:23.920 ten and three in the Grom starts like he is 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:25.839 the Mets right now, and what he is doing is 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:29.520 so historic, But with those odds, it's just not worth 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:31.000 it for me to sprinkle on d Grom at this 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:33.080 point because it's a pitcher and it's rare for him 0:06:33.120 --> 0:06:35.520 to win. He's already battling the injuries and everything like that. 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:38.480 Plus one twenty five, you've got to basically say greater 0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:41.360 than a forty four percent chance for him to win 0:06:41.400 --> 0:06:43.720 the National League MVP. I don't really feel that way, 0:06:43.880 --> 0:06:46.040 but again, you know from our time at Fantasy Pros 0:06:46.080 --> 0:06:48.000 when we talk about it, I am still too worried 0:06:48.000 --> 0:06:51.200 about Fernando Tattis Junior's injuries. He's also got big mountains 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:52.919 to climb for them to win that division with the 0:06:52.960 --> 0:06:55.440 Dodgers and the Giants. So for me, this is just 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:58.240 not something that's worth even sprinkling on because I just 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:01.520 don't feel comfortable with either of these guys at their odds. 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:05.240 And they both have injury risks attached to them as well. Now, 0:07:05.279 --> 0:07:07.040 in terms of Jacob de Grom, when it comes to 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:09.400 cy Young, a little bit of a different story. The 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:13.520 number right here consensus is minus five sixty. So yeah, 0:07:13.560 --> 0:07:16.520 no thanks, nobody's gonna do that. The question is it 0:07:16.560 --> 0:07:19.240 worth throwing money anywhere else because of the injury risk 0:07:19.280 --> 0:07:22.240 of de Gram? If de Gram, god forbid, got shut 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:25.120 down in two weeks for another injury or some other 0:07:25.240 --> 0:07:27.880 kind of issue, or ended up only let's say, making 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:30.560 twenty five starts this year when all a said and done, 0:07:30.760 --> 0:07:32.880 that certainly could impact him. You and I have talked 0:07:32.920 --> 0:07:35.200 on leading off quite a bit about Brandon Woodruff's stats 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:39.240 off the charts, the Milwaukee Brewers playing very good baseball. 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:42.160 Corbyn Burns is at plus sixteen hundred, but Brandon Woodriff 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:45.160 is plus eight hundred. Then you have you Darborship plus eighteen. 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:47.840 You know, is an eight to one A small chip 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:51.000 or two on Brandon Woodruff is not terrible because the 0:07:51.120 --> 0:07:55.840 stats are are pretty freaking spectacular. I mean, that's all 0:07:55.880 --> 0:07:58.000 I can tell you. They just are. They're off the 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:00.680 charts good. But the reason why nobody's talking him is 0:08:00.720 --> 0:08:03.040 because de Grom is doing something. It goes like a cyborg. 0:08:03.360 --> 0:08:06.080 The trouble is the amount of starts. If Woodroff ends 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:08.920 up with thirty two starts and Jacob deGrom ends up 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:11.120 at twenty five at the end of the day, that 0:08:11.200 --> 0:08:13.960 might weigh very heavily on the thoughts of voters, But 0:08:14.720 --> 0:08:17.480 obviously de Grom's still the overwhelming favorite. Can you make 0:08:17.520 --> 0:08:20.160 a case for throwing any chips, whatsoever, anywhere else. 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:23.160 Yeah, without question, you can. I mean, look, if da 0:08:23.200 --> 0:08:26.960 Gram stays healthy absent in historic collapse, and we have 0:08:27.040 --> 0:08:28.840 seen those with the mets of course in the past, 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:32.040 but absent and historic collapse, the award is his. What 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:35.240 he's doing right now is not human. So if he 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:38.520 stays healthy, that's good. We've seen him already battling like 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:41.720 three or four injuries this year, and with pitching there's 0:08:41.760 --> 0:08:43.480 always the chance of an injury, as we have seen 0:08:43.480 --> 0:08:45.880 with others. And you've mentioned Woodroff. Woodroff is great and 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:48.120 there is value in him, I think at plus eight hundred. 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:50.280 But I guess something that I'm confused about, Joe, and 0:08:50.280 --> 0:08:52.080 maybe you can explain it to me, is why is 0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:54.920 Woodroff at plus eight hundred when Kevin Gosman is at 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:57.560 plus two thousand and Zach Wheeler is at plus twenty 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:00.200 five hundred. You look at their stats lined up, they're 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:02.840 all pretty similar. Wheeler and Gozman put up a ton 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:04.840 of innings as well, which you know factors into the 0:09:04.880 --> 0:09:07.719 mind of voters because it's going to affect their war. 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:09.920 It's gonna affect how valuable they are to their team. 0:09:10.000 --> 0:09:13.720 So for me, I'm definitely sprinking on Gosman and Wheeler 0:09:13.800 --> 0:09:15.560 at the very least, given that their odds are so 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:18.040 far out of whack with Woodroff. Again, this is not 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:21.199 something where a team really factors into it necessarily. Remember, 0:09:21.280 --> 0:09:24.320 voters will throw out wins and losses as they absolutely should. 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:27.400 This is an individual award, So whether the Brewers make 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:30.360 the playoffs, that can factor into other things. But I 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:32.360 don't think with Cy Young, so do you have any 0:09:32.640 --> 0:09:35.280 understanding of why Kevin Gosman and Zac Wheeler is their 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:37.840 odds are so much higher than they've. 0:09:37.679 --> 0:09:41.360 Seen good runs from Wheeler before. But the you know, 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:43.720 this is obviously the best run and the best extended 0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:45.760 run he's had. I think that's baked into the number 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:47.800 right now. I think if he continues to do this 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:51.040 for another six weeks, that number will change dramatically. It'll 0:09:51.040 --> 0:09:54.160 get closer to six or seven to one, something like that. 0:09:54.200 --> 0:09:56.160 I think it could become that dramatic if he has 0:09:56.160 --> 0:09:58.680 that kind of a run. But Woodroff is pitching for 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:02.440 a first place team, and pitching is carrying them as 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:05.600 much as Jacob de Gram is carrying the Mets. Brandon Woodroff, 0:10:05.640 --> 0:10:09.880 Freddie Peralta and Corbyn Burns are carrying this absolutely just 0:10:09.920 --> 0:10:12.839 abysmal offense of the Milwaukee Brewers right now. So I 0:10:12.880 --> 0:10:14.680 think that's what's happening, and I think people are starting 0:10:14.679 --> 0:10:17.000 to realize too, this is not one year wonder of 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:20.240 Brandon Woodriff, not two years. We're in year three of him, 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:22.440 and last year being the shortened season, he didn't get 0:10:22.520 --> 0:10:24.520 enough credit how good he was. And I think people 0:10:24.559 --> 0:10:26.160 are starting to realize this guy's an a lead pitcher 0:10:26.160 --> 0:10:27.920 in the National League, and his number stack up there 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:30.400 with the elites, including guys like Garret Cole in the 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:33.520 American League who is at minus one sixty seven. But 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:35.960 let me tell you right now, these last few starts 0:10:36.000 --> 0:10:37.760 has not been good. This is a tough number. I 0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:40.719 am not going minus money on him whatsoever. The other 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:43.520 guys around there, Carlos Rodanna plus three hundred, who was 0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:45.679 you know going in a few weeks ago we talked 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:47.520 about a lot. He seems like you know him and 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:50.360 Trey Mancini is they're gonna battle it out for comeback 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:53.079 Player of the Year. But Carlos Rodonna's real shot at 0:10:53.080 --> 0:10:55.199 cy young at this point, Lance Lynn at plus six 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:58.000 fifty Shane Bieber. With the injury, He's fallen all the 0:10:58.040 --> 0:11:00.480 way from he was like plus two hundred a few 0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:03.040 weeks ago before the injury to now plus fifteen hundred. 0:11:03.520 --> 0:11:06.840 This is kind of wide open here, Dan, and I'll 0:11:06.840 --> 0:11:09.440 tell you what. I don't feel comfortable putting money on 0:11:09.640 --> 0:11:13.000 any of these guys. Rodin's been the best story, but 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:16.280 I find it really difficult to put minus one sixty 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:18.760 seven money on Garrett Cole, and I don't like any 0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:22.559 of these other guys being transcendent, dominating pitchers. I'm gonna 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:26.199 throw out something fun for you. I think there's a 0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:29.240 chance if sho Heyo Tani keeps doing what he's doing, 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:32.679 he might start to get into this conversation. And let's 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:36.640 not pretend like he can't, because the strikeout numbers are there, 0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:40.160 the era is there. Every start he has, he's getting better. 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:43.520 He's gonna get himself into this conversation by the time 0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:45.600 we turn the page to August. I do believe that. 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:48.040 All right, Well, we'll see whether or not the innings 0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:50.120 are there. My big thing with him is that I 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:52.360 don't expect the Angels to compete, and I think they'll 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:54.680 want to protect him. But other than Otani, who I 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:56.720 know is your boy, and you know you're in on it, 0:11:56.760 --> 0:11:58.560 and you've got the Spike store open already. 0:11:58.640 --> 0:11:58.839 I do. 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:02.120 I know. I love it look and I'm not gonna 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:04.320 take it away from him. He's having a you know, 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:07.000 miraculous season. But I agree with you completely on Cole. 0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:10.000 You and I again, because we host the Fantasy Pros show. 0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:13.160 We talk about baseball every single day, and there is 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:16.160 a noticeable difference in what Garrett Cole looks like now 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.400 versus what he looked like before they started cracking down 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:22.080 on the sticky stuff. So it basically, you know, minus 0:12:22.200 --> 0:12:23.720 the numbers are all over the place, by the way, 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:25.840 because that is moving towards minus one ninety. There's just 0:12:25.840 --> 0:12:27.760 no way I'm gonna sprinkle on it. I don't mind 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:29.720 ro Donald, though those numbers are kind of short. Plus 0:12:29.720 --> 0:12:32.320 three hundred is not really something where for a guy 0:12:32.360 --> 0:12:34.720 who has never stayed healthy. If he stays healthy, I 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:38.040 think he would be my favorite. I don't mind lanceln either, 0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:40.200 but I'm gonna throw out one other name to Joe, 0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:43.760 who's odds are pretty high without looking who's the American 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:47.680 League leader in eer among qualified pitchers? Don't look any idea. 0:12:47.800 --> 0:12:50.720 No, I'm not looking. I am not looking. That's a 0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:53.920 really good question, thank you. I don't know. I don't 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:54.920 have an answer for that one. 0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:59.400 The answer, the answer is Kyle Gibson. Kyle Gibson. 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:02.160 Who's a guy that your favorite guy are a mask 0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:02.880 favorite guy. 0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:06.920 Now, look, he does not have the strikeouts, okay, so 0:13:06.960 --> 0:13:10.599 those are pretty important obviously, but he has been absolutely 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:13.440 exceptional this entire year. There's been very little. I mean, 0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:15.200 his fit and his expit are in the low threes. 0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:18.400 That's fine. He doesn't have the war necessarily, okay, fine, 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:21.040 but if he gets traded Joe, especially to a contender 0:13:21.080 --> 0:13:23.280 in the American League. But even if he stays, he 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:26.960 is having an awesome season. That's just completely under the radar. 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:30.079 And his odds are plus five thousand. So when you're 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:33.000 talking about that, you you know, with those odds, all 0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:34.600 you have to do is view it as something that's 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.720 even remotely plausible and it's worth the investment. So to 0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:40.679 the extent I'm gonna sprinkle in on this, which I'm 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:43.240 probably not because it's silly at this point, but I 0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:45.400 probably will just do it on Gibson, and other than 0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:47.439 that ignore it because the odds on Rodin and even 0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:49.400 lance Lynn, who would be my next favorite, aren't long 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:50.280 enough for me to take it. 0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:52.840 Well, I think the Rodin ones are good right now 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:55.960 if he could. Here's the thing. Thirteen starts for Rodin. 0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:58.800 He's got one hundred and thirteen strikeouts in just seventy 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:03.160 eight and things twenty four. The FIP is a two 0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:05.720 four seven, the eras at two oh six. The whip 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:08.720 is point nine zero. It's not a flash in the pan. 0:14:08.800 --> 0:14:11.800 It's the question is what does he do over the 0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:15.040 final seventy plus innings of this season? And then you know, 0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:17.240 I'm gonna go back to Otani and his eleven starts 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:19.760 so far, he's got a two five eight ERA. He's 0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:22.200 got eighty two strikeouts and fifty nine innings and a 0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:25.680 one point one to eight whip. Don't scoff a couple 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:28.400 more starts that are really good, that are six innings long. 0:14:28.680 --> 0:14:31.120 All of a sudden, these stats are gonna get eerily similar. 0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:34.000 And I'm telling you right now, the narrative is gonna 0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:36.160 begin to build. And this is a narrative Award. And 0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:38.200 I love stories, and let's tell the stories of the 0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:40.720 young kids coming up too, because in the American League, 0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:44.480 Jared Kellnick came and went, and Randy rose Arena has 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:47.600 gone stone cold. He's at plus three point fifty. Jared 0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:50.880 Kellernick at ten to one. Wander Franco did finally make 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:53.320 his debut. He is at ten to one right now. 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:55.680 But I want to talk about somebody else who's at 0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:58.960 plus twelve hundred, And you know it's not Urman Mercedes, 0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:02.280 It's not Adley Rudh. It is Ryan Mountcastle now, who 0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:05.440 is having himself a month. Now, here's the problem. He's 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:08.080 having a great month. Can he keep any sort of 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:11.280 pace to what he's doing in that great hitters ballpark, 0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:14.840 a lineup that's actually much better than people realize at times. 0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:17.200 Do you think Mouldcastle right now is kind of the 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:19.280 smart money for American League Rookie of the Year if 0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:20.400 you want to take a shot on it. 0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:22.800 I mean, I don't know if I would call it 0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:24.880 the smart money, but I certainly think it is worth 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:26.960 taking a shot at at plus twelve under. Again, we 0:15:26.960 --> 0:15:29.280 talked about his month to month splits. You look at 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:31.720 what he did in April versus May versus June. I 0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:33.840 think he's already got seven home runs. He is a 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:36.720 guy who was a touted prospect who we liked coming 0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:40.120 into the year as a general sort of option in 0:15:40.160 --> 0:15:42.560 the fantasy space. We were sort of thinking about it, 0:15:42.600 --> 0:15:45.480 maybe for al Rookie of the Year, But you know, 0:15:45.680 --> 0:15:48.400 I think Joe I might go a little deeper than 0:15:48.400 --> 0:15:50.160 that if I'm going. First of all, he's not listed 0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:51.960 on here and I haven't seen him. You know, DraftKings 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:53.720 is my book. I haven't seen him listed there. If 0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:56.040 a Doley Scarcia is listed at your book, I would 0:15:56.120 --> 0:15:58.680 like to know what he is listed at, necessarily if 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:02.000 you assuming that he qualifies a rookie. But Luis Garcia, 0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:04.360 Joe is a guy who again pitching for the Astras, 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:06.600 and we just saw that they had an injury, right 0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:08.880 they had an injury yesterday, which is going to guaranteed 0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:11.760 keep him in irritation. He's been outstanding all year long. 0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:14.480 The issue is with him, like Rodan, whether or not 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:17.080 I can came up He's a plus four thousand. That's 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:19.080 something where I'm willing to take the sean, especially because 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:20.480 the Astros are going to get a lot of pub 0:16:20.480 --> 0:16:22.040 and I don't know how many of these awards are 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:23.600 going to be able to lock down again. All their 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:26.720 batters are contributing, but he's been absolutely solid this year. 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:30.160 At plus four thousand, those are long odds. That's something 0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:32.800 that I wouldn't mind having a little bit of action on. 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:35.360 But I do agree that mount Castle because I don't 0:16:35.360 --> 0:16:37.280 think he's quite as good as we've seen the last month. 0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:39.000 But I do think that he's going to continue to 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:42.000 generally ascend. And again, Rookie of the Year not a 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.640 team award. It is something where it's just going to 0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:46.800 be his performance. So I don't mind it. At plus twelve. 0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:49.040 Hundred, I'll tell you what to wander, Franco. Keep the 0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:51.080 eye on. It gets ten to one right now, and 0:16:51.600 --> 0:16:53.800 you know, we're kind of remiss. Another reason why the 0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:56.320 American League so I Young Award races wide open is 0:16:56.320 --> 0:16:58.720 because Tyler Glasnaw is out of it now. Correct that 0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:00.480 was probably going to be that guy, So we were 0:17:00.560 --> 0:17:03.120 kind of, you know, should have mentioned that injury being 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:07.000 a huge between that Bieber and Cole with his lack 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:10.879 of spider tack, all of a sudden, a very different 0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:13.000 dynamic in that race than it was just a month ago. 0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:15.280 And that is amazing. And this is why sometimes with 0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:18.440 these major awards. It's helpful to wait, or you put 0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:20.520 some chips down, then you like it, you keep putting 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:22.840 chips on it again, and you kind of reevaluate where 0:17:22.880 --> 0:17:24.960 you're at. On the National League side, you got Ian 0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:28.119 Anderson at plus six hundred, and then you got Kabrian 0:17:28.200 --> 0:17:31.040 Hayes at plus three fifty. National league has not been 0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:33.840 as heavy this year with rookie talent or maybe one 0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:36.199 or two still to come here to make up for 0:17:36.320 --> 0:17:40.080 that ground. I still like Ian Anderson's look. Ian Anderson 0:17:40.080 --> 0:17:41.920 has done a really good job this year. Caprian Hayes 0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:43.639 missed a good chunk of the season. Hayes is a 0:17:43.680 --> 0:17:47.320 very exciting player, good defensive player, good offensive player. But 0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:49.280 I don't know. I think for the chasm here between 0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:51.399 these two guys plus three fifty and plus six hundred, 0:17:51.400 --> 0:17:54.320 give me Ian Anderson still just because once again a 0:17:54.359 --> 0:17:56.760 higher profile team. But maybe you have a different line 0:17:56.800 --> 0:17:58.239