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Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.

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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey p

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Speaker 1: joe Pisapia, and we got a great show for you today.

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Speaker 1: As always, today we are officially halfway through the Major

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Speaker 1: League Baseball season, and that means it's time to take

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Speaker 1: a look at where we stand with some of our

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Speaker 1: preseason predictions, some of our preseason awards, and whether or

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Speaker 1: not we still feel confident in some of those wagers,

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Speaker 1: and maybe we want to take our chips and put

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Speaker 1: them some other places. And of course, if you recall

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Speaker 1: when we did this before the season started, my illustrious partner,

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Speaker 1: the EIC of Fantasy Pros, Dan Harris, my co host

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Speaker 1: from leading off on Fantasy Pros, we sat down, we

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Speaker 1: gave you the goods and overall things went pretty well.

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Speaker 1: But we are sticklers for rules and we want to

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Speaker 1: make sure that we're holding ourselves accountable. So Dan Harris,

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Speaker 1: I hope you have your accountability hat on today because

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Speaker 1: we're talking Major League Baseball halfway through the year.

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Speaker 2: All I know is I never once said that a

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Speaker 2: bet on Chohatani to win the MVP was wasting money.

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Speaker 2: Never said it. I don't know who would have said that.

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Speaker 2: That's a ridiculous thing to have said. So don't worry.

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Speaker 2: I'm totally ready to be accountable for things that I

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Speaker 2: actually said, not that which I never said.

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Speaker 1: Now I kind of want to go back. Did you

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Speaker 1: really say that? No, I didn't think it quite said that.

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Speaker 2: I completely poo pooed the idea that he could win.

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Speaker 2: I did it on our Fans Bros. Livestream or did

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Speaker 2: it here on our Betting Pros podcast. I was like,

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Speaker 2: it was fine to sprinkle a little something, but I

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Speaker 2: did not view it as a realistic possibility. And now

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Speaker 2: absolute injury, it's hard to see it not happening. So, yeah,

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Speaker 2: there are misses, but there are plenty of hits as well.

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Speaker 2: So let's get into it all.

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Speaker 1: Right here we go, So let's start with the big ones.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with MVP. In fact, let's start with the

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Speaker 1: American League because right now, if you go to Bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot com, you can see the consensus of everything that

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Speaker 1: we're talking about, and maybe, just maybe, in some of

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Speaker 1: these betting houses you can find some odds that are

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Speaker 1: a little bit better than even because that's what you

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Speaker 1: got right now? For Showey Otani, who I think start

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Speaker 1: out the year somewhere in the twenty five to one

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Speaker 1: range and then it crept to ten and then started

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Speaker 1: to get real interesting in the eight and a half, seven,

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Speaker 1: six and a half. Now it is dead even for

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Speaker 1: Otani and vlad Guerrero Junior. Even Vlad Guerrero Junior has

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Speaker 1: come out and said, I don't even know how you

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Speaker 1: can compare me to what that guy's doing. JJ Watt

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Speaker 1: takes to Twitter. He doesn't even play baseball and he's

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Speaker 1: talking about this. Are you guys crazy or are you drunk?

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Speaker 1: Have you seen what this guy is doing? The question

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Speaker 1: is would you get involved in the even bet and

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Speaker 1: there's somebody even else out there worth putting money on.

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Speaker 1: I don't think there is, even barring injury, even with

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Speaker 1: missing time. I don't even know if you could put

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Speaker 1: anyone's stats against what Atani's doing because he has a

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Speaker 1: category that no other hitter does, and they're all the

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Speaker 1: pitching categories and that's the difference. So even money right

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Speaker 1: now not a lot of value. But is it worth

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Speaker 1: the investment because of the difference between these two entities?

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Speaker 2: I guess to answer the second part. First, no, there

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Speaker 2: is nobody else who I can see factoring into this race.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it would take both of these guys essentially

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Speaker 2: getting injured for the rest of the season to really

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Speaker 2: make it happen. I mean, who who's the third favorite

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Speaker 2: here is? It's Xander Bogart's He's having a great season

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Speaker 2: and I've got him at plus twenty eight hundred and

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Speaker 2: our betting pros consensus rankings. Sure, that's fine, but there's

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Speaker 2: just no chance. I mean, and again, the Red Sox

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Speaker 2: are not succeeding because of Xander Bogarts. J D. Martinez

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Speaker 2: is having a fabulous bounced back season. Rafel Devers also exceptional.

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Speaker 2: You know, even Hunter renfro Is where is betting Alex Berdugo.

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Speaker 2: It's a team effort with that, as opposed to the Angels,

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Speaker 2: where you've got Otani who is doing historic stuff, and

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Speaker 2: the Blue Jays, which again you've got Bobaschett. But Vladdie

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Speaker 2: is playing out of his absolute mind. So look for me. Fine,

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Speaker 2: if I think Otani is gonna win it regardless of

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Speaker 2: where the Angels finished, just because of the historic nature

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Speaker 2: of what he's doing. The only thing that I would

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Speaker 2: really do at this point, if I were going to

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Speaker 2: get involved, is look for the different books. You know,

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Speaker 2: again at betting Pros we show the odds of different books.

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Speaker 2: You want to go with plus money at Chotani at

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Speaker 2: plus one oh five on DraftKings. If you could then

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Speaker 2: also sprinkle a little bit on the plus one ten

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Speaker 2: on Vladdie at FanDuel, go ahead and do that so

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Speaker 2: you can probably almost certainly lack in a very minor profit.

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Speaker 2: Other than that, just stay away. One of these two

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Speaker 2: guys are gonna win it, and I don't really think

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Speaker 2: it's worth it at this point. What did you get

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Speaker 2: them at earlier in the season.

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Speaker 1: I locked him in in season a month and a

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Speaker 1: half into the season, I locked in Otani at six fifty. Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's that's where I got Autani because I felt like,

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Speaker 1: this is the last time it's ever gonna be this

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Speaker 1: high a number. Yeah, it's just gonna be. And I waited,

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Speaker 1: and I was really tempted at I think it was

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Speaker 1: nine and a half where I started to go, oh,

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Speaker 1: I really want to do this. But I had a

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Speaker 1: little bit of discipline and it cost me some money.

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Speaker 1: But you know what, I didn't wait too long where

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Speaker 1: it costs me all the money potentially, I'm going to

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Speaker 1: disagree respectfully with Dan. Don't sprinkle any lad sprinkle it

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Speaker 1: all o time. This is a special, especially this week

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Speaker 1: in front of the New York media doing what he's doing.

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Speaker 1: It's a it's a media award, don't forget that. And

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Speaker 1: media right now is loving the sho Heiyo Tani show.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the National League a little bit more

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Speaker 1: open here the consensus betting line here, Jacob deGrom the

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Speaker 1: pitcher still plus one twenty five. You have Fernando Tattis

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Speaker 1: Junior plus one seventy five. Then Akunya has fallen down

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Speaker 1: to plus four hundred. He originally was the leader about

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Speaker 1: a month ago when last time we checked in on this,

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Speaker 1: and then he got the Jesse Winkers and some other

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Speaker 1: guys like Cassie Allos at thirty and above. It's really

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Speaker 1: probably a three person race. But I will say this,

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Speaker 1: I think this is the time to get involved in

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Speaker 1: Fernando Tattis Junior. He's an everyday player. The Padres have

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Speaker 1: played very good baseball. The narrative is there with the injury,

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Speaker 1: and as much as personally I love Degram and what

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Speaker 1: he's doing, and it's spectacular. You can make the case

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Speaker 1: for him. He's not an everyday player, and in a

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Speaker 1: year where you have somebody performing as well as Tatis is,

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Speaker 1: I think you have to think about that. But maybe

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Speaker 1: you feel differently. Is de Grom transcendent enough for you

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Speaker 1: in terms of a pitching season where even if Tatis

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Speaker 1: hits forty home runs and seals twenty five bases, you're

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Speaker 1: still gonna give it to de Grom because he's been

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Speaker 1: that good.

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Speaker 2: I think think the issue with MVP, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: is it's a media award, right, we can't quantify it.

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Speaker 2: It's not an over under, right, we can't say this

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Speaker 2: is what we think. It's what's going to happen. If

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Speaker 2: Tatis stays healthy and the Padres win that division, then yeah,

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Speaker 2: he's got a very decent shot at it. But the

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Speaker 2: Mets don't score runs, and I think they're what seven

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Speaker 2: games over five hundred right now, and I think they're

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Speaker 2: ten and three in the Grom starts like he is

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Speaker 2: the Mets right now, and what he is doing is

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Speaker 2: so historic, But with those odds, it's just not worth

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Speaker 2: it for me to sprinkle on d Grom at this

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Speaker 2: point because it's a pitcher and it's rare for him

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Speaker 2: to win. He's already battling the injuries and everything like that.

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Speaker 2: Plus one twenty five, you've got to basically say greater

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Speaker 2: than a forty four percent chance for him to win

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Speaker 2: the National League MVP. I don't really feel that way,

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Speaker 2: but again, you know from our time at Fantasy Pros

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Speaker 2: when we talk about it, I am still too worried

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Speaker 2: about Fernando Tattis Junior's injuries. He's also got big mountains

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Speaker 2: to climb for them to win that division with the

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Speaker 2: Dodgers and the Giants. So for me, this is just

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Speaker 2: not something that's worth even sprinkling on because I just

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Speaker 2: don't feel comfortable with either of these guys at their odds.

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Speaker 1: And they both have injury risks attached to them as well. Now,

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Speaker 1: in terms of Jacob de Grom, when it comes to

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Speaker 1: cy Young, a little bit of a different story. The

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Speaker 1: number right here consensus is minus five sixty. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: no thanks, nobody's gonna do that. The question is it

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Speaker 1: worth throwing money anywhere else because of the injury risk

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Speaker 1: of de Gram? If de Gram, god forbid, got shut

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Speaker 1: down in two weeks for another injury or some other

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Speaker 1: kind of issue, or ended up only let's say, making

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Speaker 1: twenty five starts this year when all a said and done,

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Speaker 1: that certainly could impact him. You and I have talked

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Speaker 1: on leading off quite a bit about Brandon Woodruff's stats

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Speaker 1: off the charts, the Milwaukee Brewers playing very good baseball.

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Speaker 1: Corbyn Burns is at plus sixteen hundred, but Brandon Woodriff

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Speaker 1: is plus eight hundred. Then you have you Darborship plus eighteen.

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Speaker 1: You know, is an eight to one A small chip

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Speaker 1: or two on Brandon Woodruff is not terrible because the

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Speaker 1: stats are are pretty freaking spectacular. I mean, that's all

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Speaker 1: I can tell you. They just are. They're off the

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Speaker 1: charts good. But the reason why nobody's talking him is

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Speaker 1: because de Grom is doing something. It goes like a cyborg.

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Speaker 1: The trouble is the amount of starts. If Woodroff ends

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Speaker 1: up with thirty two starts and Jacob deGrom ends up

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Speaker 1: at twenty five at the end of the day, that

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Speaker 1: might weigh very heavily on the thoughts of voters, But

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Speaker 1: obviously de Grom's still the overwhelming favorite. Can you make

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Speaker 1: a case for throwing any chips, whatsoever, anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, without question, you can. I mean, look, if da

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Speaker 2: Gram stays healthy absent in historic collapse, and we have

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Speaker 2: seen those with the mets of course in the past,

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Speaker 2: but absent and historic collapse, the award is his. What

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Speaker 2: he's doing right now is not human. So if he

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Speaker 2: stays healthy, that's good. We've seen him already battling like

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Speaker 2: three or four injuries this year, and with pitching there's

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Speaker 2: always the chance of an injury, as we have seen

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Speaker 2: with others. And you've mentioned Woodroff. Woodroff is great and

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Speaker 2: there is value in him, I think at plus eight hundred.

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Speaker 2: But I guess something that I'm confused about, Joe, and

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Speaker 2: maybe you can explain it to me, is why is

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Speaker 2: Woodroff at plus eight hundred when Kevin Gosman is at

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Speaker 2: plus two thousand and Zach Wheeler is at plus twenty

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Speaker 2: five hundred. You look at their stats lined up, they're

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Speaker 2: all pretty similar. Wheeler and Gozman put up a ton

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Speaker 2: of innings as well, which you know factors into the

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Speaker 2: mind of voters because it's going to affect their war.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna affect how valuable they are to their team.

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Speaker 2: So for me, I'm definitely sprinking on Gosman and Wheeler

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Speaker 2: at the very least, given that their odds are so

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Speaker 2: far out of whack with Woodroff. Again, this is not

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Speaker 2: something where a team really factors into it necessarily. Remember,

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Speaker 2: voters will throw out wins and losses as they absolutely should.

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Speaker 2: This is an individual award, So whether the Brewers make

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Speaker 2: the playoffs, that can factor into other things. But I

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Speaker 2: don't think with Cy Young, so do you have any

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Speaker 2: understanding of why Kevin Gosman and Zac Wheeler is their

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Speaker 2: odds are so much higher than they've.

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Speaker 1: Seen good runs from Wheeler before. But the you know,

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Speaker 1: this is obviously the best run and the best extended

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Speaker 1: run he's had. I think that's baked into the number

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Speaker 1: right now. I think if he continues to do this

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Speaker 1: for another six weeks, that number will change dramatically. It'll

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Speaker 1: get closer to six or seven to one, something like that.

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Speaker 1: I think it could become that dramatic if he has

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Speaker 1: that kind of a run. But Woodroff is pitching for

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Speaker 1: a first place team, and pitching is carrying them as

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Speaker 1: much as Jacob de Gram is carrying the Mets. Brandon Woodroff,

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Speaker 1: Freddie Peralta and Corbyn Burns are carrying this absolutely just

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Speaker 1: abysmal offense of the Milwaukee Brewers right now. So I

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Speaker 1: think that's what's happening, and I think people are starting

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Speaker 1: to realize too, this is not one year wonder of

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Speaker 1: Brandon Woodriff, not two years. We're in year three of him,

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Speaker 1: and last year being the shortened season, he didn't get

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Speaker 1: enough credit how good he was. And I think people

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Speaker 1: are starting to realize this guy's an a lead pitcher

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Speaker 1: in the National League, and his number stack up there

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Speaker 1: with the elites, including guys like Garret Cole in the

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Speaker 1: American League who is at minus one sixty seven. But

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Speaker 1: let me tell you right now, these last few starts

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Speaker 1: has not been good. This is a tough number. I

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Speaker 1: am not going minus money on him whatsoever. The other

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Speaker 1: guys around there, Carlos Rodanna plus three hundred, who was

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Speaker 1: you know going in a few weeks ago we talked

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Speaker 1: about a lot. He seems like you know him and

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Speaker 1: Trey Mancini is they're gonna battle it out for comeback

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Speaker 1: Player of the Year. But Carlos Rodonna's real shot at

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Speaker 1: cy young at this point, Lance Lynn at plus six

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Speaker 1: fifty Shane Bieber. With the injury, He's fallen all the

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Speaker 1: way from he was like plus two hundred a few

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Speaker 1: weeks ago before the injury to now plus fifteen hundred.

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Speaker 1: This is kind of wide open here, Dan, and I'll

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Speaker 1: tell you what. I don't feel comfortable putting money on

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Speaker 1: any of these guys. Rodin's been the best story, but

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Speaker 1: I find it really difficult to put minus one sixty

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Speaker 1: seven money on Garrett Cole, and I don't like any

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Speaker 1: of these other guys being transcendent, dominating pitchers. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: throw out something fun for you. I think there's a

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Speaker 1: chance if sho Heyo Tani keeps doing what he's doing,

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Speaker 1: he might start to get into this conversation. And let's

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Speaker 1: not pretend like he can't, because the strikeout numbers are there,

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Speaker 1: the era is there. Every start he has, he's getting better.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna get himself into this conversation by the time

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Speaker 1: we turn the page to August. I do believe that.

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Speaker 2: All right, Well, we'll see whether or not the innings

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Speaker 2: are there. My big thing with him is that I

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Speaker 2: don't expect the Angels to compete, and I think they'll

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Speaker 2: want to protect him. But other than Otani, who I

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Speaker 2: know is your boy, and you know you're in on it,

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Speaker 2: and you've got the Spike store open already.

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Speaker 1: I do.

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Speaker 2: I know. I love it look and I'm not gonna

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Speaker 2: take it away from him. He's having a you know,

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Speaker 2: miraculous season. But I agree with you completely on Cole.

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Speaker 2: You and I again, because we host the Fantasy Pros show.

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Speaker 2: We talk about baseball every single day, and there is

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Speaker 2: a noticeable difference in what Garrett Cole looks like now

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Speaker 2: versus what he looked like before they started cracking down

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Speaker 2: on the sticky stuff. So it basically, you know, minus

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Speaker 2: the numbers are all over the place, by the way,

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Speaker 2: because that is moving towards minus one ninety. There's just

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Speaker 2: no way I'm gonna sprinkle on it. I don't mind

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Speaker 2: ro Donald, though those numbers are kind of short. Plus

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Speaker 2: three hundred is not really something where for a guy

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Speaker 2: who has never stayed healthy. If he stays healthy, I

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Speaker 2: think he would be my favorite. I don't mind lanceln either,

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Speaker 2: but I'm gonna throw out one other name to Joe,

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Speaker 2: who's odds are pretty high without looking who's the American

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Speaker 2: League leader in eer among qualified pitchers? Don't look any idea.

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Speaker 1: No, I'm not looking. I am not looking. That's a

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Speaker 1: really good question, thank you. I don't know. I don't

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Speaker 1: have an answer for that one.

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Speaker 2: The answer, the answer is Kyle Gibson. Kyle Gibson.

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Speaker 1: Who's a guy that your favorite guy are a mask

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Speaker 1: favorite guy.

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Speaker 2: Now, look, he does not have the strikeouts, okay, so

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Speaker 2: those are pretty important obviously, but he has been absolutely

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Speaker 2: exceptional this entire year. There's been very little. I mean,

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Speaker 2: his fit and his expit are in the low threes.

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Speaker 2: That's fine. He doesn't have the war necessarily, okay, fine,

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Speaker 2: but if he gets traded Joe, especially to a contender

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Speaker 2: in the American League. But even if he stays, he

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Speaker 2: is having an awesome season. That's just completely under the radar.

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Speaker 2: And his odds are plus five thousand. So when you're

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Speaker 2: talking about that, you you know, with those odds, all

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Speaker 2: you have to do is view it as something that's

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Speaker 2: even remotely plausible and it's worth the investment. So to

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Speaker 2: the extent I'm gonna sprinkle in on this, which I'm

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Speaker 2: probably not because it's silly at this point, but I

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Speaker 2: probably will just do it on Gibson, and other than

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Speaker 2: that ignore it because the odds on Rodin and even

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Speaker 2: lance Lynn, who would be my next favorite, aren't long

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Speaker 2: enough for me to take it.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think the Rodin ones are good right now

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Speaker 1: if he could. Here's the thing. Thirteen starts for Rodin.

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Speaker 1: He's got one hundred and thirteen strikeouts in just seventy

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Speaker 1: eight and things twenty four. The FIP is a two

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Speaker 1: four seven, the eras at two oh six. The whip

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Speaker 1: is point nine zero. It's not a flash in the pan.

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Speaker 1: It's the question is what does he do over the

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Speaker 1: final seventy plus innings of this season? And then you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go back to Otani and his eleven starts

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Speaker 1: so far, he's got a two five eight ERA. He's

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Speaker 1: got eighty two strikeouts and fifty nine innings and a

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Speaker 1: one point one to eight whip. Don't scoff a couple

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Speaker 1: more starts that are really good, that are six innings long.

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Speaker 1: All of a sudden, these stats are gonna get eerily similar.

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Speaker 1: And I'm telling you right now, the narrative is gonna

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Speaker 1: begin to build. And this is a narrative Award. And

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Speaker 1: I love stories, and let's tell the stories of the

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Speaker 1: young kids coming up too, because in the American League,

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Speaker 1: Jared Kellnick came and went, and Randy rose Arena has

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Speaker 1: gone stone cold. He's at plus three point fifty. Jared

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Speaker 1: Kellernick at ten to one. Wander Franco did finally make

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Speaker 1: his debut. He is at ten to one right now.

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Speaker 1: But I want to talk about somebody else who's at

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Speaker 1: plus twelve hundred, And you know it's not Urman Mercedes,

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Speaker 1: It's not Adley Rudh. It is Ryan Mountcastle now, who

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Speaker 1: is having himself a month. Now, here's the problem. He's

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Speaker 1: having a great month. Can he keep any sort of

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Speaker 1: pace to what he's doing in that great hitters ballpark,

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Speaker 1: a lineup that's actually much better than people realize at times.

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Speaker 1: Do you think Mouldcastle right now is kind of the

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Speaker 1: smart money for American League Rookie of the Year if

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Speaker 1: you want to take a shot on it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if I would call it

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Speaker 2: the smart money, but I certainly think it is worth

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Speaker 2: taking a shot at at plus twelve under. Again, we

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Speaker 2: talked about his month to month splits. You look at

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Speaker 2: what he did in April versus May versus June. I

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Speaker 2: think he's already got seven home runs. He is a

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Speaker 2: guy who was a touted prospect who we liked coming

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Speaker 2: into the year as a general sort of option in

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Speaker 2: the fantasy space. We were sort of thinking about it,

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Speaker 2: maybe for al Rookie of the Year, But you know,

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Speaker 2: I think Joe I might go a little deeper than

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Speaker 2: that if I'm going. First of all, he's not listed

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Speaker 2: on here and I haven't seen him. You know, DraftKings

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Speaker 2: is my book. I haven't seen him listed there. If

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Speaker 2: a Doley Scarcia is listed at your book, I would

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Speaker 2: like to know what he is listed at, necessarily if

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Speaker 2: you assuming that he qualifies a rookie. But Luis Garcia,

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Speaker 2: Joe is a guy who again pitching for the Astras,

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Speaker 2: and we just saw that they had an injury, right

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Speaker 2: they had an injury yesterday, which is going to guaranteed

358
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Speaker 2: keep him in irritation. He's been outstanding all year long.

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Speaker 2: The issue is with him, like Rodan, whether or not

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Speaker 2: I can came up He's a plus four thousand. That's

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Speaker 2: something where I'm willing to take the sean, especially because

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Speaker 2: the Astros are going to get a lot of pub

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Speaker 2: and I don't know how many of these awards are

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Speaker 2: going to be able to lock down again. All their

365
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Speaker 2: batters are contributing, but he's been absolutely solid this year.

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Speaker 2: At plus four thousand, those are long odds. That's something

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Speaker 2: that I wouldn't mind having a little bit of action on.

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Speaker 2: But I do agree that mount Castle because I don't

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Speaker 2: think he's quite as good as we've seen the last month.

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Speaker 2: But I do think that he's going to continue to

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Speaker 2: generally ascend. And again, Rookie of the Year not a

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Speaker 2: team award. It is something where it's just going to

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Speaker 2: be his performance. So I don't mind it. At plus twelve.

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Speaker 1: Hundred, I'll tell you what to wander, Franco. Keep the

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Speaker 1: eye on. It gets ten to one right now, and

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Speaker 1: you know, we're kind of remiss. Another reason why the

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Speaker 1: American League so I Young Award races wide open is

378
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Speaker 1: because Tyler Glasnaw is out of it now. Correct that

379
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Speaker 1: was probably going to be that guy, So we were

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Speaker 1: kind of, you know, should have mentioned that injury being

381
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Speaker 1: a huge between that Bieber and Cole with his lack

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Speaker 1: of spider tack, all of a sudden, a very different

383
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Speaker 1: dynamic in that race than it was just a month ago.

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Speaker 1: And that is amazing. And this is why sometimes with

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Speaker 1: these major awards. It's helpful to wait, or you put

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Speaker 1: some chips down, then you like it, you keep putting

387
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Speaker 1: chips on it again, and you kind of reevaluate where

388
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Speaker 1: you're at. On the National League side, you got Ian

389
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Speaker 1: Anderson at plus six hundred, and then you got Kabrian

390
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Speaker 1: Hayes at plus three fifty. National league has not been

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Speaker 1: as heavy this year with rookie talent or maybe one

392
00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:36,199
Speaker 1: or two still to come here to make up for

393
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Speaker 1: that ground. I still like Ian Anderson's look. Ian Anderson

394
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Speaker 1: has done a really good job this year. Caprian Hayes

395
00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:43,639
Speaker 1: missed a good chunk of the season. Hayes is a

396
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Speaker 1: very exciting player, good defensive player, good offensive player. But

397
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Speaker 1: I don't know. I think for the chasm here between

398
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Speaker 1: these two guys plus three fifty and plus six hundred,

399
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Speaker 1: give me Ian Anderson still just because once again a

400
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Speaker 1: higher profile team. But maybe you have a different line

401
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Speaker 1: of thinking when it comes to Rookie of the Year

402
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Speaker 1: in the National League. I do.

403
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Speaker 2: I definitely would go with Anderson over Carian Hayes at

404
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Speaker 2: this point, just because Hayes missed so much time. So

405
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Speaker 2: I think, I mean, that's what you said, right, That's

406
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Speaker 2: where you were leaning as well, Yeah, I am to

407
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Speaker 2: the extent. I'm going to go with one of those

408
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Speaker 2: two guys that will be that guy. But there are

409
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Speaker 2: a couple of other guys that we're not really talking

410
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Speaker 2: about that much that people aren't big. One is Trevor Rodgers, right,

411
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Speaker 2: I mean, he's got thirty he's at plus thirty five hundred,

412
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Speaker 2: Jazz Chisholm plus three thousand, now he's battled some injury

413
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Speaker 2: and stuff like that. And Jonathan India, which depending on

414
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Speaker 2: your book, there are some books that still love him

415
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Speaker 2: out there plus four thousand. Others are much shorter. But

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Speaker 2: those are three guys who I might look at because

417
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Speaker 2: you know, again, Ian Anderson, my guess is going to

418
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Speaker 2: win it. He would be my favorite, so I would

419
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Speaker 2: certainly have some action on him, and not Cabrian Hayes,

420
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Speaker 2: because again Hayes just missed too much time. But again,

421
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Speaker 2: when you're talking about Rogers, you're talking about India, especially

422
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Speaker 2: if the Reds can find their way into the postseason,

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Speaker 2: which isn't that long of a shot or anything like that,

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Speaker 2: he could get some more notoriety and then he can

425
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Speaker 2: get some more attention and get that put onto him.

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Speaker 2: So for him. I'm gonna have a little bit on India,

427
00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 2: I'm gonna have a little bit on jazz chism, and

428
00:18:57,840 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 2: I'm gonna have a little bit on Trevor Rodgers as

429
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:02,399
Speaker 2: well well as Ian Anderson, but I'm ignoring his entirely.

430
00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 1: And as Dan mentioned, you can go to bettingpros dot

431
00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 1: com and find all these different books and make sure

432
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,360
Speaker 1: you can make the wager you want to make at

433
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:13,000
Speaker 1: the correct odds that you like. That's the nice thing

434
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,040
Speaker 1: about bettingpros dot com, if you're able to do that

435
00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:17,119
Speaker 1: sort of stuff. All right, let's go and take a

436
00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:20,119
Speaker 1: look at the divisions real quick. We are self loathing

437
00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:23,800
Speaker 1: Met fans, and we are obviously very very upfront about that.

438
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:26,320
Speaker 1: We were both kind of looking at the Braves, and

439
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:28,200
Speaker 1: right now the Braves are looking up at the Mets.

440
00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,440
Speaker 1: The Mets are minus four hundred right now, and the

441
00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,199
Speaker 1: betting consensus lied to win the division, the Braves are

442
00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:36,240
Speaker 1: plus them fifty. The Nats kind of scratch back into things,

443
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,760
Speaker 1: believe it or not, on the bat of Kyle Schwarber

444
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,320
Speaker 1: and the arm of Max Schers or plus eight hundred.

445
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,840
Speaker 1: But it really does feel like the Mets division to

446
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,359
Speaker 1: lose at this point. The Braves have had a myriad

447
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,200
Speaker 1: of injuries as well, So this is a big stay

448
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 1: away from me in the East, and I'm glad to

449
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,199
Speaker 1: be wrong as a Mets fan that, you know, the

450
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:58,159
Speaker 1: Mets actually are playing up to expectations for once in

451
00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,399
Speaker 1: a very long time. Any feel here any concerns about

452
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 1: this Mets number being too big?

453
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:05,399
Speaker 2: It does seem a little too big to me. I

454
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:06,919
Speaker 2: do think that the Mets are going to win the

455
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,119
Speaker 2: division even when they deal with injuries and they're not

456
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 2: scoring any runs. You know, they're gonna add something at

457
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,240
Speaker 2: the deadline, as we talked about before the season started.

458
00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:16,520
Speaker 2: But minus four hundred cents is the equivalent of eighty percent.

459
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:18,440
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if I feel that it's greater than

460
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:20,680
Speaker 2: eighty percent that the Mets are going to win this division,

461
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,000
Speaker 2: especially with the only other team that I look at

462
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 2: that I might sprinkle on not the Braves, because again,

463
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:27,720
Speaker 2: I think this is kind of the year that finally

464
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,920
Speaker 2: the Pythagorean theory caught up with the Braves here where

465
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,440
Speaker 2: they're always you know, down in the projections. The Nationals

466
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 2: are playing really, really well, and they're doing it without

467
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,320
Speaker 2: much going on right now, if they do get a

468
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 2: little healthier, if Strasbourg does come back, if they add

469
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 2: something at the deadline, I know, but Soto even has

470
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:45,400
Speaker 2: been out. If Josh Bell finds a stroke a little bit,

471
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 2: they have the potential to make a little bit of

472
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 2: a run here. And they're over five hundred, so plus

473
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:51,679
Speaker 2: seven hundred, plus eight hundred, depending on where you can

474
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:53,679
Speaker 2: get it. At Fox Bed it's plus eleven hundred. I'm

475
00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 2: certainly interested in those odds, but I'll probably have a

476
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 2: little bit there. But again, I do think the overwhelming

477
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:00,960
Speaker 2: probability is that the Mets win division. But I'm not trrey.

478
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 2: I feel it minus four hundred, which is again about

479
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,160
Speaker 2: eighty percent. I'm not trying. I feel that confident.

480
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:08,640
Speaker 1: Jack Flaherty went on the il and the Cardinals fell

481
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,240
Speaker 1: off the map of the Brewers, who I loved coming

482
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 1: into the season. Then I had a little buyer's remorse

483
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 1: on they know, minus two hundred very solid favor here

484
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,399
Speaker 1: the Cubs of plus three hundred, they've come crashing back

485
00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 1: down to earth. The Reds still can't get out of

486
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 1: their own way. Of plus seven hundred, So really, again,

487
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:25,640
Speaker 1: I think this is the Brewers to lose. And I'm

488
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 1: trying to remember where we were at with the Brews

489
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,680
Speaker 1: going into the season. Was it four hundred four to

490
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 1: fifth something like that? Right? Was even greater than that?

491
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 2: No, No, I think it was less. I think it

492
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:35,919
Speaker 2: was like three thou I remember half for four thirty

493
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,120
Speaker 2: by the time we got it, Yeah, and we we

494
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 2: were over it. And again the biggest, the biggest liability

495
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:42,640
Speaker 2: that I have right now are the Brewers over eighty

496
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 2: two and a half wins. That was my biggest bet

497
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 2: that I made coming into the year because again we

498
00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:49,239
Speaker 2: talked about it, and think of Joe, we you know,

499
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 2: we talked about it all the time. Their lineup is

500
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 2: like embarrassingly bad and they are still just winning, led

501
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 2: by as you mentioned it, the big three of Woodruff, Corbyn,

502
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:00,440
Speaker 2: Burns and Freddie.

503
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 1: All shining the game at the end with Hater. Let's

504
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 1: exactly not take that out of the equation because it's not.

505
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 2: But Devin Williams hasn't been as good as It's true again,

506
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 2: but we thought Williams would be great. He's not. But

507
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,400
Speaker 2: either way, it doesn't matter, man, And they probably will

508
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 2: add somebody at the deadline because the Cubs right now

509
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 2: are in second place. They are five games back. The

510
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:18,960
Speaker 2: Cubs don't want to be here, by the way, right now,

511
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 2: like they were not expecting to compete. They don't want

512
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 2: to have to go out and ad The Reds are,

513
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:25,919
Speaker 2: you know whatever, just kind of hanging around. Their bullpen

514
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 2: is off on. The Cardinals, as you said, have kind

515
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 2: of fallen off the map. So I do think that

516
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 2: the Brewers are going to win this division. I don't

517
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,119
Speaker 2: think any of the long shots are worth it, but

518
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:36,479
Speaker 2: the odds on, you know, the Brewers are anywhere, as

519
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 2: you said, to minus two hundred to minus four hundred.

520
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 2: That's where I can get it at draftings. There's no

521
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 2: way I'm touching it at that. So for me, I

522
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 2: think the Brewers are going to win. But at this point,

523
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 2: I think all the value is gone.

524
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 1: And in terms of value, the Dodgers minus two hundred

525
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 1: for the West, the Padres plus two to fifty. As

526
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 1: good of a story as the Giants have been, it's

527
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 1: not realistic to win this division. I don't think this

528
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 1: new Trevor Bauer news that broke kind of throws a

529
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,400
Speaker 1: little bit of a potential wrinkle in there too. Plus

530
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,440
Speaker 1: two fifty if you believe in the Padres, and I do.

531
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 1: This might be your last shot to get in on this.

532
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 1: The Padres are for real. They've got pitching. You know,

533
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 1: Snow eventually will straighten himself out. But Darbush has been good,

534
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 1: must Grove's been good. I wish Paddock was less erratic.

535
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 1: And I don't mean to drop bars on you like

536
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 1: this at this time of the afternoon. But still for me,

537
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,199
Speaker 1: it is the only money here worth wagering is on

538
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 1: the Padres side of this, and the Dodgers really, you know,

539
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:28,120
Speaker 1: I think the Dodgers have taken advantage of the schedule

540
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 1: when they could, but outside of that, like, I'm not

541
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 1: blown away by how great and dominant the Dodgers are

542
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 1: this year so far.

543
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you. And the Boer news, and

544
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 2: again the news that we were talking about is the

545
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 2: news that broke yesterday as we record this, that he

546
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 2: has been accused of assault. We have no idea what

547
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 2: the ramifications that are going to be necessarily going forward,

548
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 2: but it certainly adds some uncertainty and the Padres, again,

549
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,639
Speaker 2: it goes back and forth, but the betting crows consens

550
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 2: us as of this moment because it moves all the time,

551
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 2: which is why if you like something, you had to

552
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 2: move on. It is right now plus two seven. That

553
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,679
Speaker 2: corresponds to roughly a twenty seven percent chance. I think

554
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,400
Speaker 2: there's a greater than twenty seven percent chance that the Padres,

555
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 2: who haven't even played that well yet this year and

556
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 2: are still just three games back, can win this division.

557
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 2: The Giants are a plus four eighty. I mean, given

558
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 2: how they've played, I agree, I don't think it's likely necessarily.

559
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:18,399
Speaker 2: I'm fine, though, if you are, like, well, they're in

560
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 2: first place. I want to get in on it, okay,

561
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 2: I you know, I don't get on fire. I'll probably

562
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 2: it probably everybody. So for me, though, I agree with you, Joe,

563
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 2: there's no way I'm taking the Dodgers right now, especially

564
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 2: with the Bower and news, with everything that's going out

565
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 2: with the team. At minus whatever it is between two

566
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 2: hundred and three hundred, I will take the Padres have

567
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 2: plus two seventy. I do think that that's a good bet.

568
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 1: All right, switching gear to the American League the Razor

569
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,719
Speaker 1: plus one forty, But I am not. I'm just not

570
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 1: gonna do it. I'm sorry, I'm out. The Red Sox

571
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,639
Speaker 1: plus one seventy five intriguing. You know where I'm going

572
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 1: Plus four fifty Blue Jays, That's where I want to go.

573
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,120
Speaker 1: This team's starting to find its identity. The Yankees look lost.

574
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 1: Now They're a plus four fifty two, which is one

575
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 1: of the rare times you're actually getting a value on

576
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 1: the Yankees. So Yankees and Blue Jays right now, those

577
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 1: are the two teams. If the Yankees go on a run,

578
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,199
Speaker 1: they will add pieces. But these next three weeks are

579
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 1: going to tell the tale. If the Yankees play well,

580
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,640
Speaker 1: this is going to be a minus number by August first.

581
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 1: I'm telling you they is going to be a minus

582
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,360
Speaker 1: number by August first if they rattle off. I don't

583
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 1: like a twenty and ten over their next thirty games

584
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,640
Speaker 1: or something like that. And that's not outside the rama possibility.

585
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 1: But the Blue Jays because Robbie Ray's pitch well, because

586
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 1: they seem to have, you know, chips to move as well.

587
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 1: Marcus Simeon has played very well. George Spring are finally

588
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 1: coming back. I think there's a confidence growing here with

589
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 1: his young Blue Jay team. That's what I like. But look,

590
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 1: I'm kind of ignoring the Red Sox, who have been

591
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 1: pretty solid all year long. So what's your take on

592
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 1: the American League East.

593
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 2: I'm right there with you. The Blue Jays are by

594
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 2: far my favorite bet right now. They are only five

595
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 2: games over five hundred. They're six and a half out

596
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 2: of first The Raises we talked about we both like

597
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 2: the Rays, or at least I remember I did. I

598
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:48,360
Speaker 2: don't remember if you did.

599
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 1: You did before. I was concerned about Glass Now can

600
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 1: he be the ace? Can he be a two hundred

601
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 1: inning guy? I don't know, and I'm I'm sad that

602
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 1: he's not, because he was spectacular when he was wakingout out.

603
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 2: But that injury completely changes where they are. So look,

604
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 2: the Red Sox at plus money right now, but again,

605
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 2: that Red Sox pitching staff man that's not going to

606
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 2: get it done over the long haul. And kudos to

607
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 2: the team and kudos to Kora for giving them minute.

608
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 2: The Blue Jays have an awesome team, and again they

609
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,679
Speaker 2: have been they've been sort of just treading water right now,

610
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:20,159
Speaker 2: and they haven't had Springer all year long. As you mentioned,

611
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 2: he just came back. Cavin Bigio has basically been lost

612
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 2: in the desert. He was probably battling that neck injury

613
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 2: his entire time he's back, he is playing better as well.

614
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 2: You mentioned Marcus Simeon, Taskar Hernandez Bobaschet is again a

615
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:34,959
Speaker 2: guy who's gonna factor in probably the MVP conversation if

616
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 2: they didn't have one of the actual potential MVPs in

617
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 2: Vladimir Gerrera Junior. And then you have the pitching staff,

618
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 2: as you mentioned, Joe, which by the way, is strong

619
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 2: because of the fact that Robbie Ray has figured out

620
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 2: how to stop walking people. Ken jin Ryu is good.

621
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,120
Speaker 2: Ross Stripling is sort of out there kind of keating.

622
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 1: Them in every time the last couple starts.

623
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,400
Speaker 2: What they need to do is figure out the bullpen

624
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 2: because their bullpen has been pretty awful other than the

625
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 2: fact that Jordan Romanos seems to have kind of locked

626
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 2: down the ninth in. But they need to add to that.

627
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 2: But look, they're willing to go out there and make moves,

628
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 2: right They just added Corey Dickerson, just a fourth outfielder,

629
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 2: just to sort of do that. So I think they're

630
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 2: gonna go for it. I think they're gonna add and

631
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 2: I love it getting in at whatever you can get

632
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 2: it right now. Look it's at right now. The consensus again, Joe,

633
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 2: your quoting numbers. They move constantly, like it moves before

634
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:20,120
Speaker 2: we start the podcast. Now right now, the consentus I'm

635
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 2: looking at is plus five hundred at DraftKings or ibet,

636
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 2: also plus five hundred at Fox Bet plus seven fifty, Like,

637
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:28,719
Speaker 2: go out and grab that if you can make that

638
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:31,399
Speaker 2: box bet. Yeah, right, buddy, that at plus five hundred,

639
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 2: I like that. I think they honestly, I think they're

640
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 2: going to win this division. So I'm putting my money

641
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 2: where my mouth.

642
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: Well, there's no money to be put on the central anymore.

643
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 1: I told you it was the White Sox before the year.

644
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 1: If you didn't listen then and then, I'm sorry I didn't.

645
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 2: I don't think I did.

646
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 1: Gone it is gone by bye minus six seventy what

647
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 1: I mean, come on and look the Indians, I'm sorry

648
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 1: they can't catch it with Beaver being out to they

649
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 1: have injuries, Savali, the Twins have been dreadful. Let's go

650
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 1: to the West, which is a two horse race, just

651
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,479
Speaker 1: like in the National League. The Astros minus three sixty,

652
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:03,880
Speaker 1: which I understand why they're the favorites, and the A's

653
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,120
Speaker 1: or plus two twenty five. You know, the A's could

654
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 1: absolutely scoop in there, especially that Bregman injury. That was

655
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 1: a bad one where he's gonna miss at least another

656
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,640
Speaker 1: month or so. But the thing is, the Astros are

657
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 1: so deep, and I think that's kind of where I struggle,

658
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 1: because they seem to like, Okay, yeah, well we got

659
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 1: a bunch of other pictures we can just bring up

660
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 1: or or bring back in from the bullpen. And oh

661
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 1: we got Oderezi two and Christian Xavier And it's just

662
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 1: they've got a lot of depth, and I think at

663
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 1: the end of the day, that's what wins divisions, and

664
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 1: that's why I like the Mets. And I was cautiously optimistic,

665
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 1: but as good as the A's have played, I would

666
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:36,679
Speaker 1: probably stay away from this. But if you want to

667
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 1: bed the A's at two twenty five, now's the time

668
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 1: to do it. Because these two teams, I think it

669
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 1: is going to be a two horse race all the

670
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 1: way down the stretch.

671
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 2: Look, I loved the Astros before the season started. They

672
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 2: were my pick based on their odds to win the

673
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 2: al and to win the World Series because again, this

674
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 2: was sort of a plausible scenario of this happening. Now

675
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 2: you mentioned it, they do have the Bregman injury and

676
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 2: it's not good. He's probably at at least another month.

677
00:28:57,920 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 2: As we just talked about when we're talking about Luis Carcia.

678
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 2: It just had an injury to Jose Er Chidi last

679
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 2: night as we record this. But like you said, plenty

680
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 2: of depth in that rotation in their lineup. It's really

681
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 2: difficult for me to see the A's even though they're

682
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 2: only one and a half games back as we record this,

683
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 2: it's still really hard for me to see them getting there.

684
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 2: At plus two twenty five, it's just not enough to

685
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 2: interest me. But also, like you said, like at minus

686
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 2: three sixty or whatever the Astros are right now, also

687
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 2: not enough to entice me. I don't think it's more

688
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 2: than you know, seventy eight point three percent chance that

689
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 2: they're going to necessarily win that division. So it's a

690
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 2: stay away from me. I'm pretty sure the Astros are

691
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:33,959
Speaker 2: gonna win it, but it's not worth it either way

692
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 2: to bet it.

693
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 1: Let's see how Dan feels about the Astros winning the

694
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 1: American League. They are at the top plus three hundred.

695
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 1: My White Sox at plus three twenty five, I would

696
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 1: still go in there. There's nothing for me to think

697
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 1: that the White Sox in a short series with Giolito,

698
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 1: with Lanceln, Carlos, Rodan, Dallas Kichel can't get the job done,

699
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 1: and if it can get Copek healthy and all this

700
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 1: other stuff going, look the White Sox to me or

701
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: that team, as much as I would love to see

702
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 1: the Astros in the World Series, because I think if

703
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 1: hilarious and Major League Baseball will be so angry about it.

704
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 1: The A's at plus six fifty the Yankees at plus seven.

705
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 1: Isn't it hilarious that the Yankee number is to the

706
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 1: Yankee numbers at plus seven hundred to win the American League? Gettion?

707
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 1: Just the kind of premium you still pay on the

708
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 1: Yankees regardless even though they're like a plus five just

709
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: to win their own damn division. Yep, madness. But I

710
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 1: mean to me, it's the White Sox that's the bet,

711
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 1: that's the focus. Three plus three twenty five. That's a

712
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:28,239
Speaker 1: pretty good number, and you can get more than that.

713
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 1: Take it, And I'm fine with the Astros as well.

714
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 1: But any other long shots for you A's, Yankees, Red Sox,

715
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 1: or even Blue Jays at this point who are eleven

716
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 1: to one.

717
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:40,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, Blue Jays are the only other one that I'm

718
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 2: going at. I agree with you that the Astros and

719
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 2: the White Sox are the overwhelming favorites. Imagine they'll remember

720
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 2: the White Texts are doing all of this without Eloy

721
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 2: jim Andez, without Louise Robert, and they might have both

722
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 2: of them back by the time the playoffs run around,

723
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 2: So certainly they are kind of the team to consider.

724
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 2: But I do agree with the Again we talked about it,

725
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 2: the Blue Jays and the Yankees are basically the same

726
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:00,160
Speaker 2: thing to win the division, and yet the Yanks these

727
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 2: are plus seven hundred to win the AL and the

728
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 2: Blue Jays are at plus eleven hundred. The Blue Jays,

729
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 2: by the way I get it, I mean in the

730
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 2: wild card game, the Yankees have the better chance because

731
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 2: they do have the overall single best pitcher with Garrett Cole,

732
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 2: who might be knocked down a little bit, but in

733
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 2: a short series like you know, the Jays right now

734
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 2: have a rotation that can go out there again with

735
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 2: for you again, you know, if Manoa it can pitch

736
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 2: to his potential sort of whereas sure, right exactly so

737
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 2: for me at plus eleven hundred, I'm definitely having a

738
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 2: little bit on them, but that's the only one other

739
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 2: than the two that we've talked about, the Astros and

740
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 2: the White Tax, so they can see making of that.

741
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 1: The National League is still open for me. Plus one

742
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 1: ninety five for the Dodgers, plus three fifty for the Pods,

743
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: plus four to fifty for the Mets, who I think

744
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 1: we're really going to be in this too. And they

745
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 1: got the Brewers, you know, at plus six fifty with

746
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 1: those three pitchers. This is tough for me. I still

747
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 1: want to see a little bit more from all these

748
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 1: teams before I dip into this one. And if I'm

749
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 1: gonna take a shot here, I think it's actually on

750
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 1: the Mets, believe it or not, because they have that

751
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 1: one transcendent pitcher and we've seen that before where you

752
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 1: could throw him that's automatic WS sometimes in those games,

753
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 1: you know that feeling in New York it's it's a

754
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 1: tough place to go into play. Padres are a good

755
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 1: number two, but I think the Mets are the most

756
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 1: appealing on the board right now from what I've seen

757
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 1: and where the numbers are. How about you to look

758
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 1: to go to the World Series.

759
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 2: We are simpatico again. We're seeing the board very similarly.

760
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 2: And again, as you mentioned, we are self loathing. That's

761
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 2: fan so believe me, this is not homerism, it's anywhere.

762
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 2: This is towards the opposits. But you think about the player, right,

763
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 2: we agree that they are the probably overwhelming favorite to

764
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 2: win their division. Of course, which is great, right. You

765
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 2: don't want to have that one game playoff, assuming that

766
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 2: the grom comes out of it healthy. You look at

767
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 2: what the rotation could potentially be in a short and

768
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 2: Seria Stroman has been fantastic this entire year, and again

769
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 2: we liked him coming into the year. We are not

770
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 2: optimistic about when we're going to see Carlos Carrasco and

771
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 2: Noah Sinderguard. But if you're talking about are we going

772
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 2: to see them in three months from now by the

773
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 2: time the playoffs were all around, well that's a better chance,

774
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 2: especially if you've got a team that might have locked

775
00:32:59,320 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 2: up the division.

776
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: Continue been fantastic.

777
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 2: And Taiwan Walker exactly, and again in a short series,

778
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 2: one of those guys goes to the bullpen. Maybe Thor

779
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: goes to the bullpen like he did when they made

780
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 2: right the playoffs in that first year. So maybe this

781
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:13,959
Speaker 2: is something where this is what they're gonna do, So

782
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 2: I do think again, in a short series, it's really

783
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 2: hard to beat the Dodgers, and it's probably gonna be

784
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 2: pretty hard to beat the Padres because their pitching is

785
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 2: solid overall, especially if they get it sorted out. But

786
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 2: the one team that can really do it is the Mets.

787
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 2: You mentioned the Brewers. I don't necessarily mind it again

788
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 2: because they have the pitching. As we said, to go

789
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 2: after them in a short series, but that's the cutoff.

790
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 2: Nobody beyond the Brewers with a plus six fifty. But

791
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 2: I agree the best value for me is the Mets

792
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 2: a plus four to fifty.

793
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 1: And the trade deadline will also tell us a lot too.

794
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 1: These lines are gonna move, so watch these next couple

795
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 1: weeks very carefully. Yeah, and when those all happen, we'll

796
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 1: come back and do it all again, because we have

797
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 1: to take a look at it once again. The Dodgers

798
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 1: to win it all are plus three seventy five, the

799
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 1: Astros plus six fifty, the Padres eight hundred. Same thing

800
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 1: with the White Sox plus eight, and the Mets at

801
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 1: plus eight to fifty. You know, I White Sox and

802
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 1: Mets is kind of where I'm at right now. I

803
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 1: think Astros was another team that going into this year

804
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 1: I felt pretty strongly about. I think Astros, Padres, White Sox,

805
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 1: those are the teams I really kind of had designs

806
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 1: on to win it all, and still very early, we're

807
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:18,120
Speaker 1: halfway through the season. It is a marathon. But right now,

808
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:20,399
Speaker 1: is there something where you feel pretty confident that you want.

809
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 1: If I'm going to put a chip somewhere, where's it

810
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:24,879
Speaker 1: going to be on one team to win it all?

811
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean again, if I could detach myself from

812
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 2: my fandom, it probably would be the Mets, because they

813
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:31,879
Speaker 2: do seem like a team that's built. But I agree

814
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 2: with you with the White Sox. Look, I like the Ash.

815
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 2: I got them at plus again. I think it was

816
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 2: twenty two hundred at the beginning of the season. They're

817
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 2: now at plus six fifty. That value is kind of

818
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 2: sucked right out of there. Again, we like the Blue

819
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:42,840
Speaker 2: Jays for if we like them at the value for

820
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 2: the American League. I like them at plus twenty five

821
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 2: hundred necessarily to win the World Series as well. So

822
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 2: that's the only other kind of long shot that I

823
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 2: might go after. But realistically it's hard to get away

824
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 2: from any of the top five teams maybe, but if

825
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 2: you did it, probably for me would be the Blue Jays,

826
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 2: because again, this is a team. If they add like

827
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 2: one big bullpen piece, maybe one more starter, that offense

828
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:05,920
Speaker 2: can just carry them absolutely all the way through.

829
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 1: All right, I want to remind everybody make sure you

830
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:12,360
Speaker 1: follow us over on YouTube and subscribe to the YouTube

831
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:14,799
Speaker 1: channel at Betting Pros, and of course subscribe to the

832
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 1: podcast wherever you get your podcast. Betting Pros is the

833
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: name of the pod, and we do some really fun stuff.

834
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 1: We cover it all NBA, golf, Baseball, NFL seasons right

835
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 1: around the corner, So make sure you subscribe to get

836
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 1: all that fantastic content, and don't forget to watch Dan

837
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 1: Harrison myself every morning Monday through Friday, nine am Eastern

838
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 1: on leading Off. Again. We'll check in on all these

839
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,240
Speaker 1: MLB lines again in a few weeks to see what's changed,

840
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 1: because in last month a lot has and sometimes that's

841
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 1: the nature of the beast. So that'll do it for us.

842
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on. For Dan Harris,

843
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 1: I'm Joe, Pi's with you. We'll see you next time.

844
00:35:48,160 --> 00:36:03,799
Speaker 1: Gibbs