Speaker 1: The volume. All right, we'll go to Hoops today. You're
Speaker 1: at the volume. Happy Wednesday, everybody. Hope all you guys
Speaker 1: are having a great week. We are continuing our player
Speaker 1: rankings today, moving into our top five and the final
Speaker 1: player in our second tier, Superstar Tier number five, Anthony
Speaker 1: Edward's going to be doing a deep dive on him
Speaker 1: today at the tail end of the show. Today, I'm
Speaker 1: going to go through every single player in this five
Speaker 1: through fourteen group, the second tier of superstars, and for
Speaker 1: the younger guys, I want to talk about what I
Speaker 1: think their peak can be one day. And for the
Speaker 1: older guys, I want to talk about what their peak was,
Speaker 1: look at the specific stretch of their career, where they
Speaker 1: were playing, the best basketball that they played, and where
Speaker 1: they stacked up in the league at that point in time.
Speaker 1: Should be a fun little exercise at the tail end
Speaker 1: of the show, you guys, before we get started, to
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Speaker 1: the last but not at least keep dropping mail bag
Speaker 1: questions in those YouTube comments. We'll get to him in
Speaker 1: our Friday mail bags over the course of the remainder
Speaker 1: of the offseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So
Speaker 1: it's funny because I put ants at number five last year,
Speaker 1: and that was probably it was two things. It was
Speaker 1: the pick that I got caught the most shit for,
Speaker 1: and I would argue it was one of the bigger
Speaker 1: mistakes that I made with that list. Again, the rankings
Speaker 1: are supposed to predict who will be the most valuable
Speaker 1: player in that coming season, and I thought Jason Tatum
Speaker 1: in retrospect after watching last year, pretty clearly was the
Speaker 1: fifth best player in the league. Last year, I thought,
Speaker 1: at you know, in a lot of ways took a
Speaker 1: big leap and many ways moved up the ladder, but
Speaker 1: in the postseason in particular, continued to show some of
Speaker 1: the flaws that you expect from a player. His age,
Speaker 1: which are going to do a lot of talking about today,
Speaker 1: but in retrospect, that was one of my bigger mistakes
Speaker 1: last year was putting ant up at five. It should
Speaker 1: have been Jason Tatum. But as I look at this season,
Speaker 1: landed with antet number five, and I think it's the
Speaker 1: right spot for him in this coming season. He's the
Speaker 1: most reliable player in the league by a mile in
Speaker 1: terms of availability, which we'll talk about in a minute.
Speaker 1: He took a massive leap in both scoring volume and
Speaker 1: efficiency last year. He's in a phase of his career
Speaker 1: where we can expect substantial improvement year over year, and
Speaker 1: I think in particular, his struggles against Oklahoma City were
Speaker 1: very informative for him in his player development. Again, we're
Speaker 1: going to spend a good amount of time talking about
Speaker 1: that today. I think his playoff shortcomings are a little
Speaker 1: overstated because he's basically been amazing outside of the two
Speaker 1: Western Conference final series, and he's basically just struggling with
Speaker 1: the highest levels of playoff basketball right now, which is
Speaker 1: pretty typical for a superstar in his early twenties. The
Speaker 1: way that Anthony Edwards is so like those shortcomings made
Speaker 1: it a close call for me. Was Steph, but I
Speaker 1: ended up landing on Ant at the number five spot,
Speaker 1: and I feel pretty good about it this year. I
Speaker 1: was a year two early with it last year, but
Speaker 1: I think this is where he falls in the league's
Speaker 1: hierarchy at this point in time. Let's look at last
Speaker 1: season in review, seventy nine games played for Anthony Edwards.
Speaker 1: He's played in seventy nine games three years in a row.
Speaker 1: He's played in at least seventy games every season of
Speaker 1: his career. This is a crazy stat. Here's a list
Speaker 1: of players who missed more games just last season that
Speaker 1: Anthony Edwards has missed in the last three seasons combined.
Speaker 1: Excuse me, ah, I am under selling this. Here's a
Speaker 1: list of players who missed more games last season, just
Speaker 1: last season, that Anthony Edwards has missed in his entire career. Luka, Doncic, Tyrese,
Speaker 1: Maxi Palla, Boncaro LaMelo, Ball, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Zion Williamson,
Speaker 1: Cam Thomas, Joel Embiid, John Morant, Brandon Ingram Kawhi, Leonard,
Speaker 1: Brandon Miller, Chris tops Porzingis, Lori, Markinen, John Collins, Jalen Johnson,
Speaker 1: Jayden Ivy Dejohon, Tay Murray, Emmanuel Quickly, Paul George, Jordan Clarkson,
Speaker 1: Jalen Suggs, Jared McCain, Jonathan gaminga, Mark Williams, chet Holmgren,
Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon, Jeremy Grant, DeAndre Ayden, Aaron Nee Smith, Chris Middleton,
Speaker 1: and Herb Jones. Every single one of those dudes miss
Speaker 1: more games just last season that Anthony Edwards has missed
Speaker 1: in his entire career, and he's never missed a playoff game.
Speaker 1: So to put it very simply, he is by far
Speaker 1: the most dependable night to night superstar in the NBA
Speaker 1: right now. He reminds me of a young Lebron in
Speaker 1: the sense that, like you'll see him turn the shit
Speaker 1: out of his ankle and you'll be watching the TV
Speaker 1: thinking there's no way he's gonna be good to keep playing,
Speaker 1: and then he's ripping through the defense to the rim
Speaker 1: like ninety seconds later. It's a big upside for him
Speaker 1: on a list like this, Like we can talk about
Speaker 1: Anthony Edwards's ceiling and we're certainly going to today, but
Speaker 1: he is by far the most likely player in the
Speaker 1: league to at least be at or near his ceiling
Speaker 1: every night from October to late May or June, and
Speaker 1: that's a big feather in his cap on a list
Speaker 1: like this. Ended up being the major differentiator for me,
Speaker 1: especially with that debate, was Steph, who I think is
Speaker 1: a better basketball player in the small sample still to
Speaker 1: this day. His averages last year in seventy nine games
Speaker 1: twenty eight points per game, six rebounds, and five assists
Speaker 1: with one point eight stocks, forty five percent from the field,
Speaker 1: forty percent from three to eighty four percent from the line,
Speaker 1: massive increase in his three point volume last year. One
Speaker 1: of the things that I did predict correctly with Aunt
Speaker 1: last summer was that his newfound shooting stroke was real,
Speaker 1: and I predicted that he would shoot well that season,
Speaker 1: and he did. He just leaned into it almost comically.
Speaker 1: So with just the sheer amount of volume of three
Speaker 1: point shots that he was putting up, he was one
Speaker 1: of the top three to three point shooters in the
Speaker 1: league last year. He was number one in makes if
Speaker 1: you were to include shot quality, volume efficiency. There were
Speaker 1: three guys who really separated themselves from the pack as
Speaker 1: three point shooters last year Steph Curry, Malik Beasley and
Speaker 1: Anthony Edwards. I would argue that Steph was the most
Speaker 1: impressive three point shooter last year, especially considering quality. I
Speaker 1: put Ant second in Malik Beasley third. So I thought
Speaker 1: Ant was the second most impressive three point shooter in
Speaker 1: the entire NBA last year. There's a big leap forward
Speaker 1: for him in that very specific regard. That came with
Speaker 1: both upsides and downsides. Again, with the upsides and the downsides,
Speaker 1: they both fell in line with my basketball worldview. He
Speaker 1: gained in the form of large sample efficiency. This is
Speaker 1: a concept we've talked about a ton on this show.
Speaker 1: High volume three point shooting. Leaning your into that shot profile,
Speaker 1: you will gain in the form of large sample efficiency.
Speaker 1: Very rarely well you see a player massively increase their
Speaker 1: scoring volume, all simultaneously increasing their efficiency, and Ant did.
Speaker 1: And the reason why is because of his three point volume.
Speaker 1: He went from twenty six points per game to a
Speaker 1: twenty eight points per game, and he logged from he
Speaker 1: went from fifty eight percent through shooting to sixty percent
Speaker 1: your shooting. So a substantial increase in volume and a
Speaker 1: substantial increase in efficiency because of that increase in three
Speaker 1: point volume. Again, when you tilt your volume, your shot
Speaker 1: profile towards three point line. There is a lot to
Speaker 1: gain in large sample efficiency. But as I always say,
Speaker 1: skewing heavily towards three point shooting makes you highly susceptible
Speaker 1: to variants. And in the Thunder series in particular, Ant
Speaker 1: had three duds. He had a one for nine from
Speaker 1: three game, and he had two to one for seven
Speaker 1: from three games, and the Wolves lost all three of
Speaker 1: those games. In fact, if you looked, you kind of
Speaker 1: zoomed out from the Wolves in their postseason run last year.
Speaker 1: There is a pretty clear correlation between his three point
Speaker 1: shooting and his team winning. When he shot over forty
Speaker 1: percent from three in the playoffs last year, they went
Speaker 1: seven to zero, and when he shot below thirty percent
Speaker 1: from three, they went one for five, one in five.
Speaker 1: Excuse me. I think it would really benefit from better
Speaker 1: balance in his approach, and we'll talk more about that later,
Speaker 1: especially when we do a deep dive into OKC series.
Speaker 1: But one of the things that I'm counting on here
Speaker 1: for man is I do think he learned his lesson there.
Speaker 1: I do think we'll see more balance enhanced shot profile
Speaker 1: next season. Now let's look at the play type data.
Speaker 1: He was an excellent pick and roll player. Last year,
Speaker 1: he ran over twelve hundred of him and got one
Speaker 1: point zero seven points per possession including passes. That was
Speaker 1: in the eighty first percentile. Being over one thousand reps
Speaker 1: puts you onto our high volume list as we go
Speaker 1: over every summer. He ranked seventh out of the thirteen
Speaker 1: players in the NBA last year to run at least
Speaker 1: one thousand pick and rolls. For Guy in his early twenties,
Speaker 1: big accomplishment for him. He shot extremely well of pick
Speaker 1: and roll. He was forty percent on pull up threes
Speaker 1: out of ball screens on massive volume. Trey Young was
Speaker 1: the only NBA player last year to hit more threes
Speaker 1: out of pick and roll than Ant did, and Ant
Speaker 1: was the only player in the NBA to attempt at
Speaker 1: least two hundred pull up threes in ball screens and
Speaker 1: to make at least forty percent of them. That's obviously
Speaker 1: going to drive up his pick and roll scoring efficiency.
Speaker 1: Then he has a really good floater. He only takes
Speaker 1: about once a game, but he made forty nine percent
Speaker 1: of his floaters last year. Gets nice and close to
Speaker 1: the basket, uses it as a deceleration move. He'll get
Speaker 1: like downhill into the defender's chest and then he'll like
Speaker 1: sidestep into a little floater that allows him to shoot
Speaker 1: before getting to the rim protector, which has been vitally
Speaker 1: important for him in some of the spacing issues that
Speaker 1: they've dealt with with Gobert really impressive scoring in the
Speaker 1: ball screen situations. We're going to talk a little bit
Speaker 1: about Ant as a playmaker today, but the truth of
Speaker 1: the matter is he's very very much a traditional score archetype.
Speaker 1: Self awareness is key. Understand who you are when it
Speaker 1: comes to that top tier of playmaking. That's almost always
Speaker 1: something that you're born with. That's like a natural kind
Speaker 1: of like processing thing. With the way you see the floor.
Speaker 1: That's not a death sentence. There are a lot of
Speaker 1: guys in NBA history who have been great as primarily scorers.
Speaker 1: You know, we were talking about that with Kevin Durant
Speaker 1: the other day. The other day. Michael Jordan is a example.
Speaker 1: That's why Ant gets kind of compared to him a lot.
Speaker 1: But like for An, it's not about becoming some surgical playmaker.
Speaker 1: It's just about making the necessary strides to be good
Speaker 1: enough at it right. He'll make nice driving kick reads
Speaker 1: in ball screens, you'll see him elevate and rifle and
Speaker 1: opposite corner pass Jaden McDaniels for a good look. He
Speaker 1: has become a more willing passer over the years, but
Speaker 1: he's very much a reactionary passer. He's not going to
Speaker 1: anticipate things and pass people open. He's going to see
Speaker 1: openings and throw the ball reacting to the defense reacting
Speaker 1: to him. And that's fine because I think I think
Speaker 1: he has the potential to be a true like a
Speaker 1: APEX scorer in this league. And I also think he
Speaker 1: has the chance to be an all defense level two
Speaker 1: way player that is enough to make him a top
Speaker 1: tier superstar one day. He just needs to become more
Speaker 1: surgically reliable as a scorer the way a guy like
Speaker 1: Shay Gilsis Alexander is, and he'll need to reach that
Speaker 1: all defense level, which we'll get more into in a
Speaker 1: little bit. His one on one stuff wasn't great last year,
Speaker 1: and this is where I think the three point shooting
Speaker 1: really came back to bite him. He ran six hundred
Speaker 1: and thirty six ISOs and post ups last year, including passes,
Speaker 1: and got just zero point nine to one points per possession,
Speaker 1: not good. I just think this comes down to a
Speaker 1: combination of two things. One the go Beart problem. Just
Speaker 1: in general, in ISO situations, you're not getting the benefit
Speaker 1: of Gobert as a screener. You're getting Gobert in the
Speaker 1: dunker spot. And it's not a particularly good lob passer.
Speaker 1: Gobert's particularly good lob finisher. It just creates some spacing
Speaker 1: issues there. The second piece of it is just an't
Speaker 1: bailed on the mid range shot. An shot fine on
Speaker 1: pull up threes in ISO shot thirty eight percent. Not
Speaker 1: as well as he did in other areas as a
Speaker 1: three point shooter, but that's enough to like. Thirty eight
Speaker 1: percent from three is like I was. I had a
Speaker 1: comment on the Lebron video where someone was like, why
Speaker 1: did he say thirty six percent is good on pull
Speaker 1: up threes in ball screens? Thirty six percent on threes
Speaker 1: in ball screens is fine. That's well over a point
Speaker 1: per possession. Thirty six percent on pull up twos is bad.
Speaker 1: You would be correct about that, But when it comes
Speaker 1: to pull up twos, you want to be in the
Speaker 1: high forties at a minimum. But when it comes to
Speaker 1: pull up threes, as long as you're over thirty five percent.
Speaker 1: You're getting enough points per shot out of it that
Speaker 1: it's a good shot. An shot thirty eight percent on
Speaker 1: pull up threes out of ISO, that's fine. The problem
Speaker 1: is he shot just forty one percent on twos out
Speaker 1: of ISO and just thirty one percent out of the post.
Speaker 1: Now again, like we talked about the spacing piece, but
Speaker 1: the second piece of it is and just bailed on
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Speaker 1: In twenty twenty four, so the year before last, and
Speaker 1: had built out a pretty robust set of like short
Speaker 1: fades over both shoulders little step back moves and you
Speaker 1: just generally leaned on his short range scoring way more.
Speaker 1: He ran five one hundred and seventy one to one
Speaker 1: on ones that year and got one point zero three
Speaker 1: points per possession, which is really solid one on one
Speaker 1: work on substantially higher mid range volume, substantially higher post
Speaker 1: up volume. That's a part of his game that he
Speaker 1: just let go. And what that's what really concerns me
Speaker 1: about what happened last year. It shows a lack of
Speaker 1: emphasis on that part of his game. I want Aunt
Speaker 1: to emphasize that as part of his development moving forward,
Speaker 1: so that he's just more rounded. In twenty twenty four,
Speaker 1: Aunt attempted to shoot out of the post sixty eight
Speaker 1: times last year. That dropped it just thirty five times.
Speaker 1: He posted up seven times total in this year's playoff run.
Speaker 1: He did so twenty seven times two years ago, and
Speaker 1: guess what, he got one point nine points per possession
Speaker 1: out of the post. So he posted up to devastating
Speaker 1: effect in the twenty twenty four playoff run like twice
Speaker 1: a game and literally went down to doing it like
Speaker 1: once every other game. That's abandoning a super efficient play
Speaker 1: type that is just about proven to be more impactful
Speaker 1: in the postseason because of the physicality than high volume
Speaker 1: three point shooting is. Looking at short range jump shooting.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty four, attempted two hundred and ten jump
Speaker 1: shots inside his seventeen feet. In twenty twenty five, that
Speaker 1: dropped to one hundred and thirty six, almost half, and
Speaker 1: it especially showed in the playoffs. He took forty of
Speaker 1: those short twos in the twenty twenty four Western Conference
Speaker 1: Finals run. He made twenty one of them. That's fifty
Speaker 1: three percent. That's one point zero five points per shot.
Speaker 1: He was getting great success out of mid range jump
Speaker 1: shooting and post ups in that playoff runt, physical aggression,
Speaker 1: using his athleticism to get more consistent shot making closer
Speaker 1: to the rings him. He went from forty down to
Speaker 1: just sixteen of those in this most recent playoff run. So,
Speaker 1: in other words, despite making real progress as a short
Speaker 1: range scorer and getting real reliable results in that twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four playoff run, and bailed on it in the
Speaker 1: name of large sample efficiency in the form of high
Speaker 1: volume three point shooting. I thought this difference in philosophies
Speaker 1: was especially glaring in the Western Conference final series against
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City this year. To elite defenses going at each other, yeah,
Speaker 1: did in like Minnesota's game plan picking up shape, you
Speaker 1: know at half court. That was something that I think
Speaker 1: it's more harm than good. But to elite defense is
Speaker 1: going at each other two very different types of scorers.
Speaker 1: Shay was able to get these consistent bits of short
Speaker 1: range shot making that carried him in that series, and
Speaker 1: he bolstered it with thebility to get to the foul line. Ant,
Speaker 1: on the other hand, at several ice cold nights from three,
Speaker 1: and he's not as good at getting to the line.
Speaker 1: As a result, Sga was able to score more effectively
Speaker 1: and I was digging into the numbers. The difference was
Speaker 1: almost entirely short range scoring and free throws. So Shae
Speaker 1: badly outscored Ant in that series. He had one hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty seven points to Ant having just one hundred
Speaker 1: and fifteen. It's a forty two point gap over the
Speaker 1: course of the series. Excuse me, a yeah, forty two
Speaker 1: point gap. That's massive, and it was almost entirely made
Speaker 1: up of short range scoring and free throws. Shay made
Speaker 1: twenty nine twos outside of the restricted area. It made
Speaker 1: forty four free throws. That's one hundred and two points
Speaker 1: right there. Ant made fourteen twos outside of the restricted area,
Speaker 1: so less than half as many, and just twenty two
Speaker 1: free throws half as many. That's fifty points. That oneh
Speaker 1: two to fifty gap. That was literally the difference between
Speaker 1: the two of them as scorers in that series. Ants
Speaker 1: game built on three point shooting failed him. SGA's game
Speaker 1: built on short range scoring and the ability to get
Speaker 1: to the line that did not fail him. That's the
Speaker 1: change in approach that we need to see from Aunt
Speaker 1: in order for him to jump from that second tier
Speaker 1: of stars into that first tier of stars. Again, like
Speaker 1: we talked about earlier, Step one, self awareness, acknowledge the
Speaker 1: type of player that you are. Aunt is never going
Speaker 1: to be the type of dude who averages tennis sists
Speaker 1: per game. A good portion of that playmaking talent is
Speaker 1: what you're born with. I think that Aunt certainly could
Speaker 1: be a guy who you know, in his early thirties
Speaker 1: is around seven eight assists per game just because he
Speaker 1: becomes super experienced at making the reads all the time.
Speaker 1: But I don't see him getting into that APEX play tier.
Speaker 1: So APEX as a player is basically best scorer in
Speaker 1: the league, dominant perimeter defender, the Michael Jordan archetype that
Speaker 1: is his path. So step two is identifying this flaw
Speaker 1: in his approach, and I do believe that Aunt will.
Speaker 1: I think we're going to see a massive increase in
Speaker 1: Ant in short range scoring this year as soon as
Speaker 1: this season, at the expense of large sample efficiency. Like
Speaker 1: I am fine with Ant dropping a little bit in
Speaker 1: his true shooting percentage this year, his post up volume
Speaker 1: needs a skyrocket. I think he needs to lead the
Speaker 1: league and guard post ups this year. He's built like
Speaker 1: an am tank and it's going to be something he
Speaker 1: can lean on in the postseason. Two, he needs to
Speaker 1: emphasize short range shot making in his ISOs. Work guys
Speaker 1: down closer ten feet from the basket, build out those
Speaker 1: short step backs both directions, turn around over your right shoulder,
Speaker 1: turn around over your left shoulder, maybe a left shoulder hook.
Speaker 1: The advanced footwork like step throughs, things like that short
Speaker 1: range scoring, and then lastly the foul drifting. I may
Speaker 1: hate that shit, Aunt strikes me as the type of
Speaker 1: dude who probably hates that shit too, But if you
Speaker 1: could figure out a way to get to the line,
Speaker 1: maybe one more time per half, like maybe just adding
Speaker 1: pump fakes out of the post or taking some more
Speaker 1: aggressive driving angles to get into defender's chests forcing the
Speaker 1: reft to blow the whistle. But if you could find
Speaker 1: a way to get a couple extra free throw attempts
Speaker 1: per game, I think that would go a long way
Speaker 1: as well. This is where Aunt actually has the capability
Speaker 1: of one day surpassing a guy like Shake Gildas Alexander.
Speaker 1: Those are you guys who've been following the show for
Speaker 1: a while, might remember I got into a debate with
Speaker 1: the nerd Sess guys years ago, it's like two or
Speaker 1: three years ago about who had a higher potential ceiling
Speaker 1: between Aunt and SGA. And the truth is Aunt does
Speaker 1: have more potential. He has to earn it to actually
Speaker 1: get there. But his size, strength, and athleticism is an
Speaker 1: absurd tool. He's built like an absolute truck, and he
Speaker 1: has the potential to build out a bully ball game
Speaker 1: that SGA could never build out. He has a quicker
Speaker 1: first step, He's far more explosive at the rim. Vertically,
Speaker 1: Ant has the potential to be a much better defender,
Speaker 1: But right now, SGA is better than him at all
Speaker 1: those things. Sga is a far more polished post player
Speaker 1: right now. He's better at using change of pace and
Speaker 1: counter moves to get all the way to the rim,
Speaker 1: so he gets to the rim more often and finishes
Speaker 1: at a higher percentage when he gets there. He's a
Speaker 1: better brim finisher, he's better at drawing fouls when he
Speaker 1: gets there. And even though Ant has all this defensive potential,
Speaker 1: Shay is a better defender than him right now. He's
Speaker 1: more attentive off the ball. Ant would certainly be better
Speaker 1: than SGA one on one playing on an island, but
Speaker 1: who's stupid enough to attack Ant one on one? You
Speaker 1: run him through screens where he can struggle to navigate screens,
Speaker 1: and you take advantage of his lack of attention off
Speaker 1: the ball. I think Ant has all world defensive potential,
Speaker 1: but right now, Shay is the more useful off ball
Speaker 1: defender because he's got good length and he's always in
Speaker 1: the right spot he plays it, pays attention to the
Speaker 1: defensive scheme and where he's supposed to be, and that
Speaker 1: makes him a more useful defender, a more complete defender
Speaker 1: right now. Now. None of that is a death sentence
Speaker 1: for this rivalry. Shay is a solid three years older
Speaker 1: than Ant, and if you actually compare the season Ant
Speaker 1: just had to a season from SGA three years ago,
Speaker 1: Aunt is actually considerably better than SGA was at that
Speaker 1: point in time. So Ant is technically ahead of schedule,
Speaker 1: but he's got a long way to go. SGA made
Speaker 1: massive leaps in those three years. He's an It's got
Speaker 1: his work cut out for him. I get super excited
Speaker 1: about Ant because I think his potential is preposterous. We
Speaker 1: talked a second ago about how Ant's defensive talent hasn't
Speaker 1: really had high level impact yet, but he has the
Speaker 1: potential to be like a game breaking defender. He could
Speaker 1: easily become one of the two or three best perimeter
Speaker 1: defenders in the entire NBA if he just got better
Speaker 1: at navigating screens and he's got the quickness to do
Speaker 1: it and the strength to do it. He has the
Speaker 1: strength to switch onto bigger forwards and switches, and he
Speaker 1: is ridiculous weak side potential jumping passing lanes and protecting
Speaker 1: the rim if he can just become more attentive and
Speaker 1: smarter in the game plan. So I absolutely think it
Speaker 1: could be an all defense level player. That's not really
Speaker 1: in the cards for a guy like SGA, in my opinion,
Speaker 1: and he's quite literally just barely scratching the surface of
Speaker 1: his offensive potential. This feels crazy to say, considering he
Speaker 1: just averaged twenty eight points per game on sixty percent
Speaker 1: for shooting for a full season. When he starts to
Speaker 1: master like timing on his drives and change of pace
Speaker 1: and just getting a little bit more methodical with the
Speaker 1: way he attacks the basket, when he becomes a master
Speaker 1: short range score, which I think is in his future,
Speaker 1: when he goes up just that little bit of an
Speaker 1: extra level as a playmaker just from making the same
Speaker 1: reads thousands of times, when he starts to figure out
Speaker 1: how to get defenders out of position to draw that
Speaker 1: extra couple of fouls per game. He's got a long
Speaker 1: way to go, But I think Aunt legitimately has best
Speaker 1: player in the world potential. I'm not sure SGA has
Speaker 1: that he has the physical talent to be an indomitable,
Speaker 1: too way force in the playmaking talent, Like, when you're
Speaker 1: looking at these guys in this tier, you have got
Speaker 1: to be really, really great at multiple things to be
Speaker 1: the best player in the world. Shay is transcendently great
Speaker 1: as a score which is enough to move him into
Speaker 1: this top tier, but he doesn't have the defensive talent
Speaker 1: to be like extremely good on the defensive end, and
Speaker 1: he doesn't have the playmaking talent to be extremely good
Speaker 1: as a playmaker. I think you need to check two
Speaker 1: of those boxes to enter into that conversation with like Jokish,
Speaker 1: who is a transcendently great scorer and a transcendently great
Speaker 1: playmaker and has the ability to check multiple boxes. One day,
Speaker 1: I think he could be a transcendently good scorer and
Speaker 1: a transcendently good defender. That is the pathway to him
Speaker 1: becoming the best player in the world. I want to
Speaker 1: be very clear, I'm just talking about potential. There is
Speaker 1: a I would argue it's more likely than not that
Speaker 1: Ant kind of ends up as just another guy in
Speaker 1: the top tier for the majority of his career, But
Speaker 1: that potential is there. It's going to take obsessive competitiveness,
Speaker 1: obsessive work behind the scenes, dedication, and willingness to do
Speaker 1: the dirty work. But I do think Ant has all
Speaker 1: world potential, the ability to be remembered as one of
Speaker 1: the guys who took the title of the best player
Speaker 1: in the world at some point in time, and has
Speaker 1: the potential in the meantime. I think number five is
Speaker 1: a bet, a safe bet for Ant In this coming season.
Speaker 1: He's gonna play at least seventy five games. He's going
Speaker 1: to average at least twenty eight points per game on
Speaker 1: at least fifty eight percent through shooting, assuming he cuts
Speaker 1: down on his three point volume a little bit, I
Speaker 1: expect him to invest more in short range scoring. I
Speaker 1: think he did learn his lesson after last year, and
Speaker 1: I don't think it would be a bad trade off
Speaker 1: if he lost a little bit of that regular season efficiency,
Speaker 1: but he became a more reliable playoff score And again,
Speaker 1: like everything, I'm grading him on a curve here. When
Speaker 1: I talk about best player in the world, I mean
Speaker 1: he's played forty two playoff games, made two Western Conference
Speaker 1: Finals run, and he is a career twenty seven points
Speaker 1: per game on fifty nine percenter shooting in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: That's the guy that we've all nitpicked into oblivion. Ant
Speaker 1: is in the unfortunate position of being a player in
Speaker 1: his early twenties who is consistently making deep playoff runs
Speaker 1: and consistently facing off with experienced superstars, and those dudes
Speaker 1: outplay him. This is causing everyone to hyper focus on
Speaker 1: his flaws, but when the reality is he's crushing it
Speaker 1: for a guy his age. In the meantime, I have
Speaker 1: a ranked at number five, but I am really curious
Speaker 1: to see if he can actually capitalize on that all
Speaker 1: world potential. All right, now that we're done with our
Speaker 1: second tier of superstars, I wanted to take some time
Speaker 1: to look back at this grouping talk about what their
Speaker 1: absolute peaks were, or for the younger guys, what their
Speaker 1: actual peaks could be. I'm gonna start at number fourteen
Speaker 1: and work our way up the list. So number fourteen
Speaker 1: Joel Embiid. I actually had a hard time with this one.
Speaker 1: I settled on the twenty twenty one season. I understand
Speaker 1: that he won the MVP in twenty twenty three and
Speaker 1: put up all those crazy scoring numbers, but that was
Speaker 1: a phase of his career where he was super banged
Speaker 1: up and he really struggled to get through seasons healthy
Speaker 1: and he just wasn't very good when he would get
Speaker 1: to the playoffs every year all banged up. In twenty
Speaker 1: twenty one, that was really the only year where he
Speaker 1: played multiple playoff rounds and didn't experience any sort of
Speaker 1: substantial drop off in his scoring or efficiency in the
Speaker 1: postseason compared to the regular season. In the twenty twenty
Speaker 1: one regular season and Beat averaged twenty nine points and
Speaker 1: eleven rebounds eleven rebounds on sixty four percent through shooting.
Speaker 1: In the playoffs, he averaged twenty eight points eleven rebounds
Speaker 1: on sixty three percent through shooting. He had some turnover issues,
Speaker 1: especially at the end of the Hawk series, but if
Speaker 1: you guys remember that was the series where Ben's Simmons
Speaker 1: like just completely shit the bed and they probably advanced
Speaker 1: to the conference finals and have a great shot to
Speaker 1: win the title if they get a better performance out
Speaker 1: of Ben Simmons in that series. I think at that
Speaker 1: point in time, even including the playoffs, you would have
Speaker 1: to consider Embiid in that top five, like he was
Speaker 1: a consensus top five player at that point in time.
Speaker 1: He had some best player in the World buzz in
Speaker 1: later years, like when he was competing for MVPs, but
Speaker 1: mostly from a regular season box score standpoint, and a
Speaker 1: lot of like Philadelphia seventy six ers fans, a lot
Speaker 1: of basketball people understood at that point that Embid was
Speaker 1: too physically beat up and too inconsistent as a playoff
Speaker 1: performer to actually be considered as one of the top
Speaker 1: guys back in twenty twenty one. I think that was
Speaker 1: the year where you look at him as a consensus
Speaker 1: top five guy. Unfortunately, I think that will end up
Speaker 1: being Embiid's peak. I don't think he'll ever be able
Speaker 1: to get back to that level again with his knee troubles.
Speaker 1: Number thirteen Kawhi Leonard, I think the answer to this
Speaker 1: one is pretty clearly twenty nineteen. I think he hit
Speaker 1: higher levels as a basketball player later on, but he
Speaker 1: was unable to sustain them because of his knee troubles.
Speaker 1: Like if you wanted to pick like a very small
Speaker 1: window for a peak, I would look at his two
Speaker 1: playoff runs in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty three
Speaker 1: before he got hurt both years. In those thirteen playoff games,
Speaker 1: he was like Robot Kawhi at his finest thirty one points,
Speaker 1: eight rebounds, and five assists per game on fifty seven
Speaker 1: percent from the field, forty two percent from three to
Speaker 1: eighty eight percent from line, with two point one steals
Speaker 1: per game. That's probably the highest individual peak he reached,
Speaker 1: but thirteen games isn't enough to qualify for something like this.
Speaker 1: I think twenty nineteen was like that mind body skill
Speaker 1: peak for Kawhi Leonard. He wasn't quite as good as
Speaker 1: he was in later years, but he was actually healthy
Speaker 1: enough to sustain it. He aver hised twenty seven points
Speaker 1: and seven rebounds on sixty one percent true shooting in
Speaker 1: sixty regular season games. He played in all their playoff
Speaker 1: games that year, he averaged thirty one points and nine
Speaker 1: rebounds on sixty two percent tro shooting. In the playoffs,
Speaker 1: he hit all sorts of iconic shots on his way
Speaker 1: to a finals MVP for an awesome Raptors team and
Speaker 1: hoisted the trophy. I think at this point in time,
Speaker 1: he was the clear fourth best player in the world,
Speaker 1: behind Lebron Stephan kd. Now, if you want to argue
Speaker 1: Kawhi second because KDE and Lebron were both hurt that year,
Speaker 1: sure go ahead, But I mean Lebron literally went right
Speaker 1: back the next year, whipped Kawai's ass and was clearly
Speaker 1: the best player alive and won the title. So I
Speaker 1: don't I think that was more injury related, And then
Speaker 1: I would argue that Kawhi's ceiling has been higher than
Speaker 1: Kd's ceiling post Kd's Achilles tear. But I thought healthy
Speaker 1: KD in twenty nineteen was still a better player than
Speaker 1: Kawhi Leonard at that point in time. So I think
Speaker 1: like Kawhi peaked as like the fourth best everyone's healthy
Speaker 1: player in the world during that particular season. Number twelve
Speaker 1: Donovan Mitchell. I think we're actually at Donovan Mitchell's peak
Speaker 1: right now. More or less, that's the peak of his
Speaker 1: mind body skill connection. Like we talked about earlier, he
Speaker 1: might not be putting up the same numbers he did
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three, but I think he's a much
Speaker 1: better game manager now, and he's a better defender now
Speaker 1: than he was there towards the end with the Jazz,
Speaker 1: and he just put together a monster playoff run this
Speaker 1: last season. I do think this is the highest Donovan
Speaker 1: Mitchell will ever get. I'm not gonna say that he
Speaker 1: can't move up. I just don't necessarily think he will.
Speaker 1: He relies very heavily on his athletic advantages at this
Speaker 1: point in his career, but he's about to turn twenty
Speaker 1: nine years old. I think he may plateau here for
Speaker 1: a couple of years, but I would be surprised if
Speaker 1: he ever moved up substantially, like I'd be surprised if
Speaker 1: we were ever talking about Donovan Mitchell as the fifth
Speaker 1: best player in the world. I think this is more
Speaker 1: or less the peak for him. But I don't don't
Speaker 1: get hung up on the number twelve thing. Like the
Speaker 1: league is super deep with talent. The bottom line is
Speaker 1: this year I considered him to be on the same
Speaker 1: level as the second tier superstars in this league, which
Speaker 1: I think is an amazing accomplishment, especially for a guy
Speaker 1: who was a thirteenth pick, number eleven. Kevin Durants, I
Speaker 1: think his peak was twenty eighteen. The numbers weren't super
Speaker 1: impressive because of the fact that he was playing on
Speaker 1: the most talented roster ever assembled, but they were impressive nonetheless.
Speaker 1: Twenty six points, seven rebounds on five assists on sixty
Speaker 1: four percent shooting, a career high one point eight blocks
Speaker 1: per game that year in the playoff run, twenty nine
Speaker 1: eight and five on sixty one percent tr shooting, culminating
Speaker 1: in what I thought was the best game he ever
Speaker 1: played in one of the best individual games I've ever
Speaker 1: seen any NBA player in the history of the league.
Speaker 1: Game three of the NBA Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Speaker 1: That was a game if you guys remember Stephan Clay
Speaker 1: both went completely ice cold and basically no showed the game,
Speaker 1: and Katie went for forty three points, thirteen rebounds, and
Speaker 1: seven assists on fifteen for twenty three from the field
Speaker 1: in six for nine from three, and the box score
Speaker 1: doesn't really tell the full story. I thought he was
Speaker 1: masterful from start to finish. I thought he completely controlled
Speaker 1: the flow of the game. He hit the dagger over
Speaker 1: Lebron to end that game with from like twenty seven
Speaker 1: feet away from the basket. That was Kd's peak in
Speaker 1: my opinion. Now, the question is where did KD rank
Speaker 1: at this point in time. You know what's funny is,
Speaker 1: at the time, a younger version of me, almost a
Speaker 1: decade ago, I thought KD was better than Steph at
Speaker 1: that point in time. But it was a long time ago.
Speaker 1: I was a much younger basketball fan. I didn't really
Speaker 1: understand basketball the way that I do now. I didn't
Speaker 1: understand advantage creation the way I do now. So I
Speaker 1: now feel pretty strongly that Steph was the best player
Speaker 1: on that team. So at that point in time, I
Speaker 1: would have put KD third behind Lebron at one in
Speaker 1: Steph at two. I just think Steph's advantage creation was
Speaker 1: the actual thing that made that team go. Steph was
Speaker 1: a little bit susceptible to variants, and yeah, like KD
Speaker 1: was saved their ass, but that's what made it a sweep.
Speaker 1: Like Steph was going toe to tote with Lebron without
Speaker 1: Kevin Durant in the couple of years before that partnership.
Speaker 1: I think Steph was a better player than KD at
Speaker 1: that point in time. But that to me, like it's
Speaker 1: interesting because I do think KD reached a higher point
Speaker 1: in the league's hierarchy earlier on, Like from twenty twelve
Speaker 1: to twenty fourteen, he was the second best player in
Speaker 1: the world behind Lebron. I just think KD is a
Speaker 1: basketball player, was better in twenty eighteen. Steph just had
Speaker 1: surpassed him at that point. There's no shame in that.
Speaker 1: I think Steph is the fifth best perimeter player of
Speaker 1: all time. That's just what happens when Steph Curry comes
Speaker 1: into the equation number ten. Anthony Davis, this one's easy
Speaker 1: twenty twenty twenty six points and nine rebounds with four
Speaker 1: stocks per game on sixty one percent through shooting. That
Speaker 1: season an absolutely ridiculous playoff run twenty eight points and
Speaker 1: ten rebounds per game on sixty seven percent through shooting.
Speaker 1: Became an absolutely deadly jump shooter. In that playoff run,
Speaker 1: he shot forty seven percent on all jump shots. He
Speaker 1: shot sixty two percent on long twos outside of seventeen feet.
Speaker 1: He was thirty one for fifty, He had a game winner.
Speaker 1: He was a dominant defender the whole year, from start
Speaker 1: to finish. It really answered the question of like, what
Speaker 1: would it look like if you had the best defender
Speaker 1: in the league but also a guy with a deadly
Speaker 1: jump shot, And that guy, in my opinion at that
Speaker 1: point in time, was the fourth best player in the world. Now, unfortunately,
Speaker 1: as with Embiid, I just think Ad is too far
Speaker 1: gone in terms of his injuries and the weight that
Speaker 1: he's put on and the age that he's at now.
Speaker 1: I don't think he'll ever pass that ceiling again. But
Speaker 1: twenty twenty was the peak of Anthony Davis' career. Number nine.
Speaker 1: Jalen Brunson, similarly to Donovan Mitchell. I think we're experiencing
Speaker 1: his peak right now. By the time you guys see
Speaker 1: this video, he'll be twenty nine years old, so he'll
Speaker 1: begin to experience some age related declin and athleticism. But
Speaker 1: I do think he'll hang at this level for like
Speaker 1: similar to Mitchell, I think he'll plateau here for a
Speaker 1: while before he go before he goes down. But we're
Speaker 1: in a three year span. We're in the playoffs for
Speaker 1: three consecutive seasons. He's averaged thirty points per game on
Speaker 1: fifty seven percent through shooting with seven assists. That's one
Speaker 1: hell of a run from a guy who's now entered
Speaker 1: into that second tier of superstars. Again, we were talking
Speaker 1: about this with like Shae at the top. Like, the
Speaker 1: problem with guys like Mitchell and Brunson is they're not
Speaker 1: transcendently great at scoring the way that Shay is, and
Speaker 1: they don't have that I'm awesome at several different things.
Speaker 1: Tier like Brunson's a better passer than Donovan Mitchell, but
Speaker 1: Jalen Brunson still is not an elite passer, and he
Speaker 1: still is not a guy who can impact the game defensively.
Speaker 1: And so they're both really good scorers, but they just
Speaker 1: don't have the versatility elements of their game to crack
Speaker 1: into that top tier. And if you're gonna crack into
Speaker 1: that top tier without versatility, you gotta be like Shae,
Speaker 1: a guy who's gonna average damn near thirty four points
Speaker 1: per game hyper efficiently. And that's just not what you're
Speaker 1: getting out of those two guys. So I look at
Speaker 1: Brunson and Mitchell is more or less at their ceilings
Speaker 1: right now. Number eight Lebron James peak for me with
Speaker 1: Lebron was twenty eighteen. It was unfortunately one of the
Speaker 1: worst rosters he ever played on, but he still managed
Speaker 1: to drag them to the finals. He averaged twenty eight
Speaker 1: points nine rebounds in nine asists on sixty two percent
Speaker 1: true shooting that year. Went up a massive level in
Speaker 1: the playoffs, one of the best individual playoff runs you
Speaker 1: will ever see in the history of the NBA. He
Speaker 1: averaged thirty four points, nine rebounds in nine a sists
Speaker 1: without a dip inefficiency stated sixty two percent true shooting.
Speaker 1: He coasted on defense in the regular season, but he
Speaker 1: was great on that end in the playoffs. He had
Speaker 1: eight forty point games in that postseason run. He hung
Speaker 1: fifty on the Warriors in the finals. He hit multiple
Speaker 1: buzzer beating game winners. He won multiple series as the underdog.
Speaker 1: To put it very simply, not only was Lebron the
Speaker 1: best player in the league in twenty eighteen, I think
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen Lebron is the best basketball player to ever
Speaker 1: play in the NBA. Number seven Victor Wimenyama, obviously not
Speaker 1: too much to dig into. Last season was his peak?
Speaker 1: The hard to see why it was his second season,
Speaker 1: obviously predictable leaps across the board. The question is what
Speaker 1: will Wemby's peak be? And the answer is, I think
Speaker 1: he will be the best player in the world someday.
Speaker 1: I talked about Aunt today and how he had the
Speaker 1: potential to one day become the best player in the world,
Speaker 1: But it's far from a guarantee with Ant, I actually
Speaker 1: think it's a safer bet with Ant that he cracks
Speaker 1: the top tier of superstars but never actually claims the
Speaker 1: top spot. I personally would be surprised if Wemby never
Speaker 1: actually took the top spot in the NBA. He's already
Speaker 1: the best defensive player in the world. He's very likely
Speaker 1: to get even better on that end in the coming years,
Speaker 1: as he gets better at reading and reacting to modern
Speaker 1: NBA offenses, Like I think he'll become he's already the
Speaker 1: best defender in the NBA. I think he'll become far, far, far, far,
Speaker 1: far and away the best defender in the NBA in time.
Speaker 1: But I also think it's almost a certainty that he'll
Speaker 1: eventually average thirty points per game on sixty two percent
Speaker 1: true shooting or so, probably in the next like two
Speaker 1: or three years. So like I think he would require
Speaker 1: an injury or for Wemby to like just straight up
Speaker 1: not figure a lot of basic shit out for him
Speaker 1: to not eventually become the consensus top player in the world.
Speaker 1: Two more, number six Steph Curry. I think his peak
Speaker 1: stretched from the end of the regular season in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty one to the time he hoisted the trophy in
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty two finals. I think that twenty twenty
Speaker 1: two season was the one time in Steph's career where
Speaker 1: I think he had a really strong, really hard to
Speaker 1: refute case as the best basketball player alive. Like I
Speaker 1: disagree with Warriors fans, I think he was better than
Speaker 1: Lebron during Lebron's prime. I you know, it gets to
Speaker 1: be a debate with him in Giannis in twenty twenty one,
Speaker 1: I had Giannis as the best player in the world.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty one he won the title. Kind of
Speaker 1: feels like you have to give it to him there. Jokic,
Speaker 1: I think snatched it for good starting in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty two, is that one season in Steph's career
Speaker 1: where I really do think he had a strong case
Speaker 1: to be the best player in the world. At that point,
Speaker 1: Giannis regressed a little bit off of his title winning
Speaker 1: season in twenty twenty one. Jokic hadn't really peaked yet,
Speaker 1: maybe because of his rosters, but still we'll just you know,
Speaker 1: he hadn't made that successful deep playoff run where he
Speaker 1: just alpha dogged everybody like he did the following season.
Speaker 1: Lebron was never the same after his high ankle sprain
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. Luca and Shakilvis Alexander weren't ready yet.
Speaker 1: I think that was the window in time where Steph
Speaker 1: had that best player in the world belt twenty twenty one,
Speaker 1: the second half of the season that was insane. Steph's
Speaker 1: last forty three games that year, despite the entire league
Speaker 1: throwing everything at him. Because KD was out, Klay Thompson
Speaker 1: was out, he was getting the most aggressive coverages in
Speaker 1: the world. He averaged thirty four points per game on
Speaker 1: sixty seven percent true shooting for forty three games. That
Speaker 1: is far and away the most impressive scoring in afficiency
Speaker 1: stretch of his career. He did battle a slight shooting
Speaker 1: slump in the following season, but on a better roster,
Speaker 1: he recaptured his touch in the playoffs, made the run
Speaker 1: at the end, iconic game in Game four on the
Speaker 1: road in Boston, gets that title that legitimizes everything and
Speaker 1: shuts the haters up from the previous titles. Lastly, number
Speaker 1: five Anthony Edwards. I'm going to go with the twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four season, so two years ago. Obviously, he had
Speaker 1: a much more impressive regular season this year with his
Speaker 1: high volume three point shooting. But I thought that he
Speaker 1: was more surgical and more physically aggressive as a scorer
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, and I think that made him
Speaker 1: a better player in the playoffs compared to the compared
Speaker 1: to the following year. Now, as I said earlier, I
Speaker 1: do think at has the potential to be the best
Speaker 1: player in the world someday, but I think it will
Speaker 1: require a lot of things to go right for him.
Speaker 1: I think he needs to maximize his defensive potential and
Speaker 1: become a much more reliable possession of possession score and
Speaker 1: he just has a long way to go to get there.
Speaker 1: But I do think he has that potential. All right, guys,
Speaker 1: It's all I have for today is always to sincerely
Speaker 1: appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting the show.
Speaker 1: We will be back on Friday with a mailbag. I
Speaker 1: will see you guys back