WEBVTT - Why Anthony Edwards is #5 on my NBA player rankings for 2025 | Minnesota Timberwolves 0:00:01.280 --> 0:00:16.880 The volume. All right, we'll go to Hoops today. You're 0:00:16.920 --> 0:00:18.880 at the volume. Happy Wednesday, everybody. Hope all you guys 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:21.080 are having a great week. We are continuing our player 0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:25.119 rankings today, moving into our top five and the final 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:30.200 player in our second tier, Superstar Tier number five, Anthony 0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:32.040 Edward's going to be doing a deep dive on him 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:34.080 today at the tail end of the show. Today, I'm 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:36.800 going to go through every single player in this five 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:40.280 through fourteen group, the second tier of superstars, and for 0:00:40.320 --> 0:00:42.720 the younger guys, I want to talk about what I 0:00:42.760 --> 0:00:46.280 think their peak can be one day. And for the 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:49.080 older guys, I want to talk about what their peak was, 0:00:49.200 --> 0:00:52.239 look at the specific stretch of their career, where they 0:00:52.240 --> 0:00:54.880 were playing, the best basketball that they played, and where 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:57.200 they stacked up in the league at that point in time. 0:00:57.200 --> 0:00:59.000 Should be a fun little exercise at the tail end 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:00.920 of the show, you guys, before we get started, to 0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:02.440 subscribe to The Hoops and my YouTube channel so you 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:04.479 don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter, 0:01:04.560 --> 0:01:07.360 Underscore JCNLTS. You guys, don't miss sho announcements. Don't forget 0:01:07.360 --> 0:01:09.520 about a podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. Unders 0:01:09.640 --> 0:01:11.479 Under hoops tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave 0:01:11.480 --> 0:01:13.760 a rating and a review on that front. Jackson's doing 0:01:13.760 --> 0:01:16.120 a great work on our social media feeds Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:17.920 and TikTok. Make sure you guys follow us there and 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:19.520 the last but not at least keep dropping mail bag 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:21.840 questions in those YouTube comments. We'll get to him in 0:01:21.840 --> 0:01:24.400 our Friday mail bags over the course of the remainder 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:26.840 of the offseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:29.760 it's funny because I put ants at number five last year, 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:33.039 and that was probably it was two things. It was 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:35.360 the pick that I got caught the most shit for, 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:37.480 and I would argue it was one of the bigger 0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:41.560 mistakes that I made with that list. Again, the rankings 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:45.280 are supposed to predict who will be the most valuable 0:01:45.319 --> 0:01:49.880 player in that coming season, and I thought Jason Tatum 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:53.520 in retrospect after watching last year, pretty clearly was the 0:01:53.560 --> 0:01:56.680 fifth best player in the league. Last year, I thought, 0:01:56.720 --> 0:01:58.480 at you know, in a lot of ways took a 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:02.560 big leap and many ways moved up the ladder, but 0:02:02.800 --> 0:02:05.400 in the postseason in particular, continued to show some of 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:07.880 the flaws that you expect from a player. His age, 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:10.519 which are going to do a lot of talking about today, 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:13.120 but in retrospect, that was one of my bigger mistakes 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:15.960 last year was putting ant up at five. It should 0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:18.760 have been Jason Tatum. But as I look at this season, 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:22.359 landed with antet number five, and I think it's the 0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:26.120 right spot for him in this coming season. He's the 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:29.320 most reliable player in the league by a mile in 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:31.720 terms of availability, which we'll talk about in a minute. 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:34.480 He took a massive leap in both scoring volume and 0:02:34.560 --> 0:02:37.480 efficiency last year. He's in a phase of his career 0:02:37.480 --> 0:02:40.040 where we can expect substantial improvement year over year, and 0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:43.160 I think in particular, his struggles against Oklahoma City were 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:46.240 very informative for him in his player development. Again, we're 0:02:46.240 --> 0:02:48.080 going to spend a good amount of time talking about 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:50.840 that today. I think his playoff shortcomings are a little 0:02:50.880 --> 0:02:54.639 overstated because he's basically been amazing outside of the two 0:02:54.680 --> 0:02:58.480 Western Conference final series, and he's basically just struggling with 0:02:58.600 --> 0:03:02.160 the highest levels of playoff basketball right now, which is 0:03:02.200 --> 0:03:06.040 pretty typical for a superstar in his early twenties. The 0:03:06.040 --> 0:03:09.679 way that Anthony Edwards is so like those shortcomings made 0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:11.919 it a close call for me. Was Steph, but I 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:13.920 ended up landing on Ant at the number five spot, 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:15.360 and I feel pretty good about it this year. I 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:18.160 was a year two early with it last year, but 0:03:18.240 --> 0:03:19.760 I think this is where he falls in the league's 0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:22.760 hierarchy at this point in time. Let's look at last 0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:25.920 season in review, seventy nine games played for Anthony Edwards. 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:28.560 He's played in seventy nine games three years in a row. 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:31.720 He's played in at least seventy games every season of 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:35.800 his career. This is a crazy stat. Here's a list 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:40.880 of players who missed more games just last season that 0:03:41.000 --> 0:03:43.880 Anthony Edwards has missed in the last three seasons combined. 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:48.240 Excuse me, ah, I am under selling this. Here's a 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:51.640 list of players who missed more games last season, just 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:59.560 last season, that Anthony Edwards has missed in his entire career. Luka, Doncic, Tyrese, 0:03:59.600 --> 0:04:04.880 Maxi Palla, Boncaro LaMelo, Ball, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Zion Williamson, 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:09.600 Cam Thomas, Joel Embiid, John Morant, Brandon Ingram Kawhi, Leonard, 0:04:09.720 --> 0:04:14.640 Brandon Miller, Chris tops Porzingis, Lori, Markinen, John Collins, Jalen Johnson, 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:19.480 Jayden Ivy Dejohon, Tay Murray, Emmanuel Quickly, Paul George, Jordan Clarkson, 0:04:19.640 --> 0:04:24.120 Jalen Suggs, Jared McCain, Jonathan gaminga, Mark Williams, chet Holmgren, 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:28.760 Aaron Gordon, Jeremy Grant, DeAndre Ayden, Aaron Nee Smith, Chris Middleton, 0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:31.760 and Herb Jones. Every single one of those dudes miss 0:04:31.760 --> 0:04:35.479 more games just last season that Anthony Edwards has missed 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:40.120 in his entire career, and he's never missed a playoff game. 0:04:40.760 --> 0:04:43.560 So to put it very simply, he is by far 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:46.479 the most dependable night to night superstar in the NBA 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:50.520 right now. He reminds me of a young Lebron in 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:53.320 the sense that, like you'll see him turn the shit 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:56.159 out of his ankle and you'll be watching the TV 0:04:56.279 --> 0:04:58.640 thinking there's no way he's gonna be good to keep playing, 0:04:59.160 --> 0:05:01.360 and then he's ripping through the defense to the rim 0:05:01.520 --> 0:05:04.440 like ninety seconds later. It's a big upside for him 0:05:04.480 --> 0:05:08.080 on a list like this, Like we can talk about 0:05:08.120 --> 0:05:11.599 Anthony Edwards's ceiling and we're certainly going to today, but 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:14.520 he is by far the most likely player in the 0:05:14.600 --> 0:05:16.960 league to at least be at or near his ceiling 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:20.280 every night from October to late May or June, and 0:05:20.320 --> 0:05:22.080 that's a big feather in his cap on a list 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:24.599 like this. Ended up being the major differentiator for me, 0:05:24.720 --> 0:05:26.880 especially with that debate, was Steph, who I think is 0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:29.839 a better basketball player in the small sample still to 0:05:29.880 --> 0:05:33.320 this day. His averages last year in seventy nine games 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:35.600 twenty eight points per game, six rebounds, and five assists 0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:38.480 with one point eight stocks, forty five percent from the field, 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:41.440 forty percent from three to eighty four percent from the line, 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:45.280 massive increase in his three point volume last year. One 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:47.800 of the things that I did predict correctly with Aunt 0:05:47.920 --> 0:05:50.720 last summer was that his newfound shooting stroke was real, 0:05:51.200 --> 0:05:53.320 and I predicted that he would shoot well that season, 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:56.799 and he did. He just leaned into it almost comically. 0:05:56.880 --> 0:05:59.160 So with just the sheer amount of volume of three 0:05:59.200 --> 0:06:01.320 point shots that he was putting up, he was one 0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:02.840 of the top three to three point shooters in the 0:06:02.880 --> 0:06:06.280 league last year. He was number one in makes if 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:10.280 you were to include shot quality, volume efficiency. There were 0:06:10.480 --> 0:06:14.120 three guys who really separated themselves from the pack as 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:17.440 three point shooters last year Steph Curry, Malik Beasley and 0:06:17.480 --> 0:06:20.920 Anthony Edwards. I would argue that Steph was the most 0:06:20.960 --> 0:06:25.320 impressive three point shooter last year, especially considering quality. I 0:06:25.440 --> 0:06:28.120 put Ant second in Malik Beasley third. So I thought 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:31.000 Ant was the second most impressive three point shooter in 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:33.640 the entire NBA last year. There's a big leap forward 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:36.520 for him in that very specific regard. That came with 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:42.919 both upsides and downsides. Again, with the upsides and the downsides, 0:06:43.160 --> 0:06:48.320 they both fell in line with my basketball worldview. He 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:51.640 gained in the form of large sample efficiency. This is 0:06:51.680 --> 0:06:53.960 a concept we've talked about a ton on this show. 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:58.960 High volume three point shooting. Leaning your into that shot profile, 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:02.640 you will gain in the form of large sample efficiency. 0:07:02.760 --> 0:07:05.840 Very rarely well you see a player massively increase their 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:10.640 scoring volume, all simultaneously increasing their efficiency, and Ant did. 0:07:11.240 --> 0:07:13.480 And the reason why is because of his three point volume. 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:15.560 He went from twenty six points per game to a 0:07:15.760 --> 0:07:19.080 twenty eight points per game, and he logged from he 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:21.720 went from fifty eight percent through shooting to sixty percent 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:24.400 your shooting. So a substantial increase in volume and a 0:07:24.440 --> 0:07:28.400 substantial increase in efficiency because of that increase in three 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:32.040 point volume. Again, when you tilt your volume, your shot 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:34.960 profile towards three point line. There is a lot to 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:38.000 gain in large sample efficiency. But as I always say, 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:41.840 skewing heavily towards three point shooting makes you highly susceptible 0:07:41.840 --> 0:07:45.440 to variants. And in the Thunder series in particular, Ant 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:48.200 had three duds. He had a one for nine from 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:50.640 three game, and he had two to one for seven 0:07:50.960 --> 0:07:53.440 from three games, and the Wolves lost all three of 0:07:53.480 --> 0:07:56.760 those games. In fact, if you looked, you kind of 0:07:56.800 --> 0:07:59.240 zoomed out from the Wolves in their postseason run last year. 0:07:59.400 --> 0:08:02.400 There is a pretty clear correlation between his three point 0:08:02.440 --> 0:08:06.480 shooting and his team winning. When he shot over forty 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:08.520 percent from three in the playoffs last year, they went 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:11.680 seven to zero, and when he shot below thirty percent 0:08:11.680 --> 0:08:14.640 from three, they went one for five, one in five. 0:08:14.720 --> 0:08:18.679 Excuse me. I think it would really benefit from better 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:21.800 balance in his approach, and we'll talk more about that later, 0:08:21.920 --> 0:08:24.200 especially when we do a deep dive into OKC series. 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:26.400 But one of the things that I'm counting on here 0:08:26.440 --> 0:08:28.760 for man is I do think he learned his lesson there. 0:08:28.920 --> 0:08:32.200 I do think we'll see more balance enhanced shot profile 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:35.959 next season. Now let's look at the play type data. 0:08:36.280 --> 0:08:38.079 He was an excellent pick and roll player. Last year, 0:08:38.120 --> 0:08:40.360 he ran over twelve hundred of him and got one 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:43.080 point zero seven points per possession including passes. That was 0:08:43.080 --> 0:08:46.480 in the eighty first percentile. Being over one thousand reps 0:08:46.800 --> 0:08:48.920 puts you onto our high volume list as we go 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:52.720 over every summer. He ranked seventh out of the thirteen 0:08:52.800 --> 0:08:55.120 players in the NBA last year to run at least 0:08:55.160 --> 0:08:57.400 one thousand pick and rolls. For Guy in his early twenties, 0:08:57.679 --> 0:09:00.360 big accomplishment for him. He shot extremely well of pick 0:09:00.360 --> 0:09:04.600 and roll. He was forty percent on pull up threes 0:09:05.040 --> 0:09:09.040 out of ball screens on massive volume. Trey Young was 0:09:09.080 --> 0:09:11.560 the only NBA player last year to hit more threes 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:14.760 out of pick and roll than Ant did, and Ant 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:17.679 was the only player in the NBA to attempt at 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:20.680 least two hundred pull up threes in ball screens and 0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:24.080 to make at least forty percent of them. That's obviously 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:26.360 going to drive up his pick and roll scoring efficiency. 0:09:26.679 --> 0:09:28.320 Then he has a really good floater. He only takes 0:09:28.360 --> 0:09:30.840 about once a game, but he made forty nine percent 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:33.280 of his floaters last year. Gets nice and close to 0:09:33.320 --> 0:09:36.760 the basket, uses it as a deceleration move. He'll get 0:09:36.760 --> 0:09:39.080 like downhill into the defender's chest and then he'll like 0:09:39.240 --> 0:09:42.839 sidestep into a little floater that allows him to shoot 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:45.040 before getting to the rim protector, which has been vitally 0:09:45.080 --> 0:09:47.680 important for him in some of the spacing issues that 0:09:47.679 --> 0:09:52.280 they've dealt with with Gobert really impressive scoring in the 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:55.280 ball screen situations. We're going to talk a little bit 0:09:55.440 --> 0:09:58.079 about Ant as a playmaker today, but the truth of 0:09:58.120 --> 0:10:02.880 the matter is he's very very much a traditional score archetype. 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:07.080 Self awareness is key. Understand who you are when it 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:09.680 comes to that top tier of playmaking. That's almost always 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:12.000 something that you're born with. That's like a natural kind 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:14.480 of like processing thing. With the way you see the floor. 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:17.560 That's not a death sentence. There are a lot of 0:10:17.559 --> 0:10:21.360 guys in NBA history who have been great as primarily scorers. 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:24.199 You know, we were talking about that with Kevin Durant 0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:27.560 the other day. The other day. Michael Jordan is a example. 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:29.680 That's why Ant gets kind of compared to him a lot. 0:10:30.080 --> 0:10:33.839 But like for An, it's not about becoming some surgical playmaker. 0:10:33.920 --> 0:10:36.880 It's just about making the necessary strides to be good 0:10:37.040 --> 0:10:40.280 enough at it right. He'll make nice driving kick reads 0:10:40.640 --> 0:10:43.199 in ball screens, you'll see him elevate and rifle and 0:10:43.240 --> 0:10:46.080 opposite corner pass Jaden McDaniels for a good look. He 0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:49.680 has become a more willing passer over the years, but 0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:52.360 he's very much a reactionary passer. He's not going to 0:10:52.600 --> 0:10:56.360 anticipate things and pass people open. He's going to see 0:10:56.400 --> 0:11:00.560 openings and throw the ball reacting to the defense reacting 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:04.160 to him. And that's fine because I think I think 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:07.400 he has the potential to be a true like a 0:11:07.400 --> 0:11:11.040 APEX scorer in this league. And I also think he 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:14.000 has the chance to be an all defense level two 0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:16.920 way player that is enough to make him a top 0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:19.679 tier superstar one day. He just needs to become more 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:23.360 surgically reliable as a scorer the way a guy like 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:26.600 Shay Gilsis Alexander is, and he'll need to reach that 0:11:26.800 --> 0:11:29.520 all defense level, which we'll get more into in a 0:11:29.520 --> 0:11:32.680 little bit. His one on one stuff wasn't great last year, 0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:34.480 and this is where I think the three point shooting 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:37.640 really came back to bite him. He ran six hundred 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:41.160 and thirty six ISOs and post ups last year, including passes, 0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:44.080 and got just zero point nine to one points per possession, 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:46.760 not good. I just think this comes down to a 0:11:46.760 --> 0:11:50.080 combination of two things. One the go Beart problem. Just 0:11:50.120 --> 0:11:53.840 in general, in ISO situations, you're not getting the benefit 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:56.040 of Gobert as a screener. You're getting Gobert in the 0:11:56.080 --> 0:11:59.400 dunker spot. And it's not a particularly good lob passer. 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:03.360 Gobert's particularly good lob finisher. It just creates some spacing 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:05.800 issues there. The second piece of it is just an't 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:09.400 bailed on the mid range shot. An shot fine on 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.720 pull up threes in ISO shot thirty eight percent. Not 0:12:12.800 --> 0:12:14.360 as well as he did in other areas as a 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:17.000 three point shooter, but that's enough to like. Thirty eight 0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:19.599 percent from three is like I was. I had a 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:24.240 comment on the Lebron video where someone was like, why 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:26.160 did he say thirty six percent is good on pull 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:29.800 up threes in ball screens? Thirty six percent on threes 0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:32.680 in ball screens is fine. That's well over a point 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:36.160 per possession. Thirty six percent on pull up twos is bad. 0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:39.040 You would be correct about that, But when it comes 0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:40.800 to pull up twos, you want to be in the 0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:43.800 high forties at a minimum. But when it comes to 0:12:43.800 --> 0:12:46.160 pull up threes, as long as you're over thirty five percent. 0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:49.400 You're getting enough points per shot out of it that 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:51.880 it's a good shot. An shot thirty eight percent on 0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:55.480 pull up threes out of ISO, that's fine. The problem 0:12:55.559 --> 0:12:58.520 is he shot just forty one percent on twos out 0:12:58.559 --> 0:13:03.240 of ISO and just thirty one percent out of the post. 0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:06.600 Now again, like we talked about the spacing piece, but 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:09.520 the second piece of it is and just bailed on 0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:13.920 the mid range shot. This year, we are extremely excited 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:17.959 to announce our new presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet. Everyone 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:20.560 knows and loves the hard rock hotels and casinos, and 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:22.840 now you can use the top rated hard Rock Bet 0:13:22.960 --> 0:13:26.360 sports book to place all of your bets all NFL 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:30.120 season and beyond. 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If you are someone you know has a 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:35.280 gambling problem and wants help, call one eight hundred and 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:38.960 nine with it gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler 0:14:38.960 --> 0:14:43.080 in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:48.960 In twenty twenty four, so the year before last, and 0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:52.160 had built out a pretty robust set of like short 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:55.320 fades over both shoulders little step back moves and you 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:58.360 just generally leaned on his short range scoring way more. 0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:01.080 He ran five one hundred and seventy one to one 0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:03.680 on ones that year and got one point zero three 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:06.320 points per possession, which is really solid one on one 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:12.320 work on substantially higher mid range volume, substantially higher post 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:14.920 up volume. That's a part of his game that he 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:18.200 just let go. And what that's what really concerns me 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:20.520 about what happened last year. It shows a lack of 0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:27.520 emphasis on that part of his game. I want Aunt 0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:31.080 to emphasize that as part of his development moving forward, 0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:35.040 so that he's just more rounded. In twenty twenty four, 0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:38.200 Aunt attempted to shoot out of the post sixty eight 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:42.600 times last year. That dropped it just thirty five times. 0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:47.080 He posted up seven times total in this year's playoff run. 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:52.800 He did so twenty seven times two years ago, and 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:55.880 guess what, he got one point nine points per possession 0:15:55.920 --> 0:15:59.800 out of the post. So he posted up to devastating 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:03.200 effect in the twenty twenty four playoff run like twice 0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:08.200 a game and literally went down to doing it like 0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:13.040 once every other game. That's abandoning a super efficient play 0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:16.680 type that is just about proven to be more impactful 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:19.480 in the postseason because of the physicality than high volume 0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:24.000 three point shooting is. Looking at short range jump shooting. 0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:27.120 In twenty twenty four, attempted two hundred and ten jump 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:29.680 shots inside his seventeen feet. In twenty twenty five, that 0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:32.640 dropped to one hundred and thirty six, almost half, and 0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:36.240 it especially showed in the playoffs. He took forty of 0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:39.640 those short twos in the twenty twenty four Western Conference 0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:42.960 Finals run. He made twenty one of them. That's fifty 0:16:43.000 --> 0:16:46.160 three percent. That's one point zero five points per shot. 0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:50.240 He was getting great success out of mid range jump 0:16:50.320 --> 0:16:55.600 shooting and post ups in that playoff runt, physical aggression, 0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:59.600 using his athleticism to get more consistent shot making closer 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:02.040 to the rings him. He went from forty down to 0:17:02.240 --> 0:17:06.959 just sixteen of those in this most recent playoff run. So, 0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:10.480 in other words, despite making real progress as a short 0:17:10.560 --> 0:17:15.560 range scorer and getting real reliable results in that twenty 0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:19.320 twenty four playoff run, and bailed on it in the 0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:23.600 name of large sample efficiency in the form of high 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:28.840 volume three point shooting. I thought this difference in philosophies 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:31.720 was especially glaring in the Western Conference final series against 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:37.280 Oklahoma City this year. To elite defenses going at each other, yeah, 0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:40.040 did in like Minnesota's game plan picking up shape, you 0:17:40.080 --> 0:17:42.000 know at half court. That was something that I think 0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:45.119 it's more harm than good. But to elite defense is 0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:47.880 going at each other two very different types of scorers. 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:54.440 Shay was able to get these consistent bits of short 0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:58.760 range shot making that carried him in that series, and 0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:03.080 he bolstered it with thebility to get to the foul line. Ant, 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:06.520 on the other hand, at several ice cold nights from three, 0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:08.680 and he's not as good at getting to the line. 0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:13.399 As a result, Sga was able to score more effectively 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:16.840 and I was digging into the numbers. The difference was 0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:21.879 almost entirely short range scoring and free throws. So Shae 0:18:21.880 --> 0:18:24.399 badly outscored Ant in that series. He had one hundred 0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:26.920 and fifty seven points to Ant having just one hundred 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:29.760 and fifteen. It's a forty two point gap over the 0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:31.920 course of the series. Excuse me, a yeah, forty two 0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:36.880 point gap. That's massive, and it was almost entirely made 0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:39.560 up of short range scoring and free throws. Shay made 0:18:39.760 --> 0:18:44.560 twenty nine twos outside of the restricted area. It made 0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:47.639 forty four free throws. That's one hundred and two points 0:18:47.720 --> 0:18:52.760 right there. Ant made fourteen twos outside of the restricted area, 0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:55.880 so less than half as many, and just twenty two 0:18:55.920 --> 0:19:00.960 free throws half as many. That's fifty points. That oneh 0:19:01.040 --> 0:19:04.480 two to fifty gap. That was literally the difference between 0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:07.919 the two of them as scorers in that series. Ants 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:12.600 game built on three point shooting failed him. SGA's game 0:19:12.960 --> 0:19:16.360 built on short range scoring and the ability to get 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:20.879 to the line that did not fail him. That's the 0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:23.399 change in approach that we need to see from Aunt 0:19:23.800 --> 0:19:25.960 in order for him to jump from that second tier 0:19:25.960 --> 0:19:28.480 of stars into that first tier of stars. Again, like 0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:33.439 we talked about earlier, Step one, self awareness, acknowledge the 0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:36.959 type of player that you are. Aunt is never going 0:19:37.040 --> 0:19:38.800 to be the type of dude who averages tennis sists 0:19:38.800 --> 0:19:43.800 per game. A good portion of that playmaking talent is 0:19:43.800 --> 0:19:47.760 what you're born with. I think that Aunt certainly could 0:19:47.760 --> 0:19:50.280 be a guy who you know, in his early thirties 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:53.760 is around seven eight assists per game just because he 0:19:53.800 --> 0:19:56.840 becomes super experienced at making the reads all the time. 0:19:57.200 --> 0:20:00.560 But I don't see him getting into that APEX play tier. 0:20:00.640 --> 0:20:04.960 So APEX as a player is basically best scorer in 0:20:04.960 --> 0:20:09.199 the league, dominant perimeter defender, the Michael Jordan archetype that 0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:14.119 is his path. So step two is identifying this flaw 0:20:14.200 --> 0:20:17.359 in his approach, and I do believe that Aunt will. 0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:19.520 I think we're going to see a massive increase in 0:20:19.560 --> 0:20:23.160 Ant in short range scoring this year as soon as 0:20:23.160 --> 0:20:28.199 this season, at the expense of large sample efficiency. Like 0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:31.679 I am fine with Ant dropping a little bit in 0:20:31.720 --> 0:20:36.080 his true shooting percentage this year, his post up volume 0:20:36.160 --> 0:20:38.840 needs a skyrocket. I think he needs to lead the 0:20:38.920 --> 0:20:41.320 league and guard post ups this year. He's built like 0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:43.520 an am tank and it's going to be something he 0:20:43.560 --> 0:20:46.879 can lean on in the postseason. Two, he needs to 0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:51.280 emphasize short range shot making in his ISOs. Work guys 0:20:51.400 --> 0:20:55.160 down closer ten feet from the basket, build out those 0:20:55.600 --> 0:20:58.639 short step backs both directions, turn around over your right shoulder, 0:20:58.640 --> 0:21:01.320 turn around over your left shoulder, maybe a left shoulder hook. 0:21:01.520 --> 0:21:04.400 The advanced footwork like step throughs, things like that short 0:21:04.440 --> 0:21:07.840 range scoring, and then lastly the foul drifting. I may 0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:10.520 hate that shit, Aunt strikes me as the type of 0:21:10.560 --> 0:21:13.040 dude who probably hates that shit too, But if you 0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:15.040 could figure out a way to get to the line, 0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:18.280 maybe one more time per half, like maybe just adding 0:21:18.320 --> 0:21:21.720 pump fakes out of the post or taking some more 0:21:21.760 --> 0:21:25.399 aggressive driving angles to get into defender's chests forcing the 0:21:25.440 --> 0:21:27.280 reft to blow the whistle. But if you could find 0:21:27.280 --> 0:21:29.280 a way to get a couple extra free throw attempts 0:21:29.280 --> 0:21:30.760 per game, I think that would go a long way 0:21:30.800 --> 0:21:36.240 as well. This is where Aunt actually has the capability 0:21:36.240 --> 0:21:40.000 of one day surpassing a guy like Shake Gildas Alexander. 0:21:41.119 --> 0:21:42.560 Those are you guys who've been following the show for 0:21:42.600 --> 0:21:44.639 a while, might remember I got into a debate with 0:21:44.680 --> 0:21:46.800 the nerd Sess guys years ago, it's like two or 0:21:46.840 --> 0:21:49.600 three years ago about who had a higher potential ceiling 0:21:50.160 --> 0:21:55.280 between Aunt and SGA. And the truth is Aunt does 0:21:55.480 --> 0:22:00.560 have more potential. He has to earn it to actually 0:22:00.600 --> 0:22:04.119