WEBVTT - Claudia Sahm Talks 2025 Economy, Stagflation Risk

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's bring in Claudia Slam. She's a New Century Advisor's

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<v Speaker 2>chief economists, former Federal Reserve economist as well, and a

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<v Speaker 2>good friend of a Bloomberg. Claudia. Let's think about twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty five. I mean, I've got an economy that I

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<v Speaker 2>think is you know, kind of puts it along pretty

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<v Speaker 2>darn well. I got inflation, then well, I'd like it

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<v Speaker 2>to be a little bit lower. The Fed would like

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<v Speaker 2>it to be a little bit lower. It's reasonable the

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<v Speaker 2>labor market, people who want a job generally have a job.

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<v Speaker 2>They're getting some wage increases. What are you telling your

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<v Speaker 2>clients about twenty twenty five in this economy?

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<v Speaker 3>Don't be complacent.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean these, as you said, if we could keep

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<v Speaker 1>it as it is right now, largely, this would be

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<v Speaker 1>another great year.

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<v Speaker 3>Ahead of us.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we've been surprised at how well the past

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<v Speaker 1>two years have gone, particularly when you think about growth

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<v Speaker 1>and how the.

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<v Speaker 3>Consumers have held up that. But that doesn't have to

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<v Speaker 3>keep going.

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<v Speaker 1>So what we really want people to focus on are

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<v Speaker 1>what like the blind spots right?

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<v Speaker 3>What could go wrong? Where who who isn't getting enough attention.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think one area, you know, if I had

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<v Speaker 1>to maybe point some FED officials to a blind spot,

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<v Speaker 1>I think they showed a lot of complacency in their

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<v Speaker 1>last summary of economic projections on how well the labor

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<v Speaker 1>market would continue to hold up.

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<v Speaker 3>You know what we saw them.

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<v Speaker 1>Kind of write down the typical official was something that

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<v Speaker 1>basically has the unemployment rate sticking out where it is

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<v Speaker 1>right now for the next three years. That's a pretty

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<v Speaker 1>remarkable and frankly not would be very unusual path to

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<v Speaker 1>the labor market. And that's and yet there was all

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<v Speaker 1>kinds of concerns about inflation and the answer to round inflation.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think I keep I'm still concerned that there

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<v Speaker 1>are things in the labor market well good, don't quite

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<v Speaker 1>look like sustainable, and that's where the problems can come in.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's that's one.

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<v Speaker 4>So if I ask which is a bigger risk, weakening

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<v Speaker 4>labor market or a stubborn inflation, you're going with the

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<v Speaker 4>former rather than the latter.

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<v Speaker 1>Inflation's fine right now, I mean, we are really not

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<v Speaker 1>that far from two percent, and we've seen a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of encouraging signs under the hood that this we are

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<v Speaker 1>getting to this last mile on inflation.

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<v Speaker 4>But right now, before tariffs, that's before we deep work,

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<v Speaker 4>before millions of workers, that's before Donald Trump comes into office.

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<v Speaker 4>So things could change drastically after January twentieth.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely, they could change drastically.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think it's appropriate that we have had a

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<v Speaker 1>very deep conversation about the policies that have been put

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<v Speaker 1>on the table. There have been a lot of policies

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<v Speaker 1>put on the table, and it's really important to have

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<v Speaker 1>this conversation and talk about some of their potential pitfalls.

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<v Speaker 3>And maybe we won't see all of them put into place,

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<v Speaker 3>and that probably would be a good thing, uh, for

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<v Speaker 3>the economy.

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<v Speaker 1>And yet, you know, kind of taking for granted the

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<v Speaker 1>good stuff that we've got going in the economy that's

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<v Speaker 1>a little more nuts and bolts, like the labor market functioning,

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<v Speaker 1>and just saying, oh, well, that'll just keep going. That's

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<v Speaker 1>all fine, it's in a good place. I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>a real that could be a real mistake in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of because the labor market in particular is always and

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<v Speaker 1>has been the past year, is such a lynchpin to

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<v Speaker 1>this amazing period of a big disinflation. Growth has stayed strong,

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<v Speaker 1>and unemployment has stayed relatively low, you know, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>something we want to keep going. And I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>that's to just be taken for granted.

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<v Speaker 5>I think I'm very unpopular for asking this question repeatedly.

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<v Speaker 5>I know, you've got to look at all the risks, right,

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<v Speaker 5>and if you have to think about potentially inflationary policies

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<v Speaker 5>and sticky areas of inflation next year, and worries about

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<v Speaker 5>growth as well, especially if you have kind of a

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<v Speaker 5>fiscal appetite to pull back, how big of an issue

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<v Speaker 5>with stagflation or big of a worry is it.

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<v Speaker 1>There are absolutely paths we could go down where we

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<v Speaker 1>end up in a stag inflationary environment. We're good ways

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<v Speaker 1>from that point, because again we're starting from a well

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<v Speaker 1>above trend growth and U and inflation is relatively low.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not to do percent, but it's relatively low. But

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<v Speaker 1>there are absolutely paths we could go on that are

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<v Speaker 1>uh could get us as stagflation. And the thing about

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<v Speaker 1>stagflation is, you know, we talked about, oh, think about

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<v Speaker 1>all the different risks and keep an eye out to

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<v Speaker 1>the risk, and we do need to do that, but

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<v Speaker 1>some risks come with.

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<v Speaker 3>Bigger problems, right.

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<v Speaker 1>Solving a stagflationary economic environment. Like policy solutions for that

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<v Speaker 1>are a lot trickier because, say, for the FED example,

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<v Speaker 1>they're fighting both inflation and trying to keep employment high, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and their tools are going to be at odds with

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<v Speaker 1>each other.

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<v Speaker 3>So there's some like.

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<v Speaker 1>Dark corners of the economic world that we want to

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<v Speaker 1>stay away from, because if we get there, they're a

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<v Speaker 1>big problems.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think it's important to think about stagflation.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think that's one that's like highest probability, but

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<v Speaker 1>if we get there, is probably one of the highest

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<v Speaker 1>probability of being a big map.

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<v Speaker 4>How does the consumer look to you, Claudia, Because as

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<v Speaker 4>you pointed out at the top, the consumer held up

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<v Speaker 4>much better than we had anticipated in twenty twenty four,

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<v Speaker 4>and yet all the savings, I would guess are spent

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<v Speaker 4>off the pandemic era savings. This is a consumer that

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<v Speaker 4>at least the bottom you know four Quinn tiles, is

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<v Speaker 4>not well prepared for retirement. The housing market is a

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<v Speaker 4>tough one to get into if you aren't already, and

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<v Speaker 4>I guess if you are, that's how you fund your retirement.

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<v Speaker 4>But what does the consumer look like to you right now?

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<v Speaker 2>In the US?

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<v Speaker 1>So as a whole, the consumer is still in a

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<v Speaker 1>good place. We certainly as time has gone on, we

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<v Speaker 1>have seen more strains at lower income household That's why

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<v Speaker 1>I keep coming back to the labor market as so

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<v Speaker 1>essential because for most Americans that's where the money comes from,

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<v Speaker 1>that they're going to be spending.

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<v Speaker 3>So you need a vibrant labor market that has.

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<v Speaker 1>Good strong wage growth as we have seen, and good

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<v Speaker 1>job opportunities. So that is so important for the bulk

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<v Speaker 1>of America's bulk of consumers. You know, we've also seen

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<v Speaker 1>really positive trends with some probably middle class, upper middle class,

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<v Speaker 1>wealthier consumers.

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<v Speaker 3>Bolstered by you know, the stock market has been very good.

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<v Speaker 1>We've had you know, we've had some trends that have

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<v Speaker 1>continued to bolster the consumer and their demand. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean I always say, don't bet against the American consumer,

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<v Speaker 1>right Like, if they have if they have the music

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<v Speaker 1>and spend, they're gonna they're going to spend.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's what we have. That's what we have seen

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<v Speaker 3>the past few years.

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<v Speaker 2>Should I be concerned about this this weakness in the

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<v Speaker 2>manufacturing sector, I know it's only and I just underline

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<v Speaker 2>only thirty percent of the US economy. But what does

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<v Speaker 2>that tell you? How do you think about that?

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<v Speaker 3>I think we've.

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<v Speaker 1>Seen not just one more data point of weakness from

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<v Speaker 1>the manufacturing sector. I mean, we've seen years of uh,

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<v Speaker 1>what could be seen as contractionary trends in manufacturing and

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<v Speaker 1>and they're you know, we have to have a discussion

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<v Speaker 1>that's more about a structural you know, this this is

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<v Speaker 1>an economy that just hasn't been based on manufacturing the same.

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<v Speaker 3>Way it had been many decades ago.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is a transition that's been happening very slowly

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<v Speaker 1>over time. And it's probably one of the discussions that's

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<v Speaker 1>hardest to have data release date to data release, right

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<v Speaker 1>because it just kind of the trends get glom together.

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<v Speaker 1>So and then you know, and we're having a very

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<v Speaker 1>robust and I think a lot you know, this year,

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<v Speaker 1>a big part of this policy discussion is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be center around do you revive the manufacturing sector in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States?

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<v Speaker 3>And how do you do it best?

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<v Speaker 1>I Mean, we certainly saw under President Biden a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of tax incentives and big large programs. We're trying to

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<v Speaker 1>give money to companies to build up manufacturing in different

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<v Speaker 1>specific sectors, and we may see an approach that's quite

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<v Speaker 1>different in using tariffs to protect domestic industries and manufacturing

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<v Speaker 1>being one in the area. So I think it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be an ongoing discussion, but it really is more

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<v Speaker 1>about the deep underlying structure of the US economy and

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<v Speaker 1>what we want that deep underlying structure of the US

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<v Speaker 1>economy to look.

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<v Speaker 5>Like Clauie, you know, you look at the long end

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<v Speaker 5>of the curve and just how much tenure thirty year

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<v Speaker 5>rates have decoupled. How much ConTroll does the Federal Reserve

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<v Speaker 5>really have over that longer end when you see investors

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<v Speaker 5>equally concerned about other issues like the fiscal term premium needed.

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<v Speaker 1>So the Fed never hasn't never will have full control

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<v Speaker 1>over a ten year horizon. So that much shorter horizons

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<v Speaker 1>of treasury is like the two year you can really

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<v Speaker 1>have a conversation about the FED is very active in

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<v Speaker 1>what those treasure yields look like out of the tenure

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<v Speaker 1>There always are a host of concerns about or issues

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<v Speaker 1>in the US economy that are going to fit into

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<v Speaker 1>what do those treasury yields look like? And I think

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<v Speaker 1>we may there's just a lot of action right now right,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of information coming out of the FED

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of where they think they're going to end

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<v Speaker 1>up in terms of or potentially end up with the rates.

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<v Speaker 1>And this, this whole discussion about the terminal rate or

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<v Speaker 1>the neutral rate of interest.

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<v Speaker 3>Is actually one where while it comes out.

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<v Speaker 1>Of FED official's mouths, it is tied very much back

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<v Speaker 1>to these structural features of the economy and that and

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<v Speaker 1>those are things like productivity or concerns about debt, sustainability, demographics,

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<v Speaker 1>other big issues.

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<v Speaker 3>And those then can get I mean, those.

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<v Speaker 1>Are also issues that the tenure treasury plays into. So

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<v Speaker 1>while as you said, the FED doesn't control the tenure Treasury,

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe we're seeing that potentially some of those links

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<v Speaker 1>weaken even more just because the room is getting crowded

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of issues that people in the treasure markets

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<v Speaker 1>need to absorb.

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<v Speaker 3>But I don't. It's it's nothing unusual per se.

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<v Speaker 1>It's what's maybe more unusual is we're having there's big

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<v Speaker 1>question marks out there about the structure of the economy,

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<v Speaker 1>like are.

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<v Speaker 3>We are we a stronger economy?

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<v Speaker 1>Are we going to withstand and really thrive with higher

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates than we.

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<v Speaker 3>Did before the pandemic?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean these and they're very much open questions right

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<v Speaker 1>now and very very central to where those longer data

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<v Speaker 1>treasury markets will land.

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<v Speaker 4>I have a curveball question for you, Claudia as Good

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<v Speaker 4>an economist. Were you at the Beta Theta pie house

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<v Speaker 4>in March of nineteen ninety No, I'm kidding, what do

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<v Speaker 4>you think about the effect of GLP one drugs on

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<v Speaker 4>the US economy? We had a listener right in earlier

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<v Speaker 4>asking why you know the government doesn't just subsidize these

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<v Speaker 4>things and save US billions of dollars a year in

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<v Speaker 4>terms of healthcare. What do you think about the effect

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<v Speaker 4>of this drug? Have you given it any thought?

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<v Speaker 1>I think the way an economists like I said, would

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<v Speaker 1>probably tie this back in into this economic discussion would

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<v Speaker 1>be to think about the ability it gives individuals to

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<v Speaker 1>will be more productive as workers. You know, and this

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<v Speaker 1>live is in the broad category of health and all

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<v Speaker 1>all the different kinds of pharmaceuticals and healthcare that we

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<v Speaker 1>provide individuals or they have access to the can you know,

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<v Speaker 1>potentially lengthen lives, make them more rich and fulfilling, make

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<v Speaker 1>them more able to say off, save disability roles and

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<v Speaker 1>be in the workforce. So I think, you know, a healthier,

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<v Speaker 1>more productive workforce is one that is going to you know,

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<v Speaker 1>benefit the economy as a whole, do I think, But

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<v Speaker 1>that's me again being macroeconomist is a very big picture

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<v Speaker 1>thinking about the labor market as I often.

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<v Speaker 3>Do, and not.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, there absolutely will be disruption under the hood

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of winners and losers in the economy from

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<v Speaker 1>you know, particular industries or particular institutions, and there will

0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:50.760
<v Speaker 1>be I mean, there is an answer to that question

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<v Speaker 1>in the beginning. I mean, the massive budgetary impacts if

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<v Speaker 1>say Medicare or large government programs pick up these these

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<v Speaker 1>kind of drugs.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, So there's all kinds of issues here.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think in terms of you know, quality of life,

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<v Speaker 1>a healthier, healthier population, there is a lot of both

0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:10.040
<v Speaker 1>individual benefits and then their social benefits from you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if a healthier population as a whole.

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<v Speaker 5>Claudie, we have to leave it there. Thank you so

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<v Speaker 5>very much for joining us today. Of course, it's a

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<v Speaker 5>wild bond market out there, and expectation expectations changing quickly

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<v Speaker 5>around the course for next year as well, of course,

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<v Speaker 5>and happy New Year to you, of course, Happy holidays