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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: PODCA All right, here we go. Every Pitch is Your Pitch.

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Speaker 2: The greatest show on Dirk Way that God.

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Speaker 1: So now they can add college baseball to their trophy case.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. Colin Wilson

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Speaker 1: and I will be tackling college baseball for the next

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Speaker 1: two months. We're gonna be mixing in our thoughts on

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Speaker 1: the futures market as well as giving out projections and

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Speaker 1: plays for the weekend slates. Usually this episode is going

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Speaker 1: to drop midweek, so a part of what we're going

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Speaker 1: to be doing is reading the tea leaves as to

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Speaker 1: who those starters are going to be on Friday, Saturday, Sunday,

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Speaker 1: what those odds are going to be, trying to give

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Speaker 1: you ranges in.

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Speaker 3: Which to play them.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of futures though, let's bring up one of the

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Speaker 1: notices differences between college football and college baseball. Here's the

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Speaker 1: top five in college baseball per Division one baseball dot Com. Yeah, Texas, Clemson,

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Speaker 1: Oregon State, Florida State, Arkansas. But what's interesting is when

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Speaker 1: you look at the futures market, number one, Texas is

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Speaker 1: fifth in the pecking order in terms of the market

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Speaker 1: at ten to one, number two, Clemson is seventh at

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Speaker 1: fifteen to one, Oregon State number three in the entire country,

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Speaker 1: they're thirteenth going off at thirty to one, Florida State

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Speaker 1: ninth at twenty five to one, and then finally it

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Speaker 1: comes back with your Arkansas Razorbacks colin second in the

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Speaker 1: market in terms of their value to win the national

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Speaker 1: championship at plus five to fifty, edging up to being

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Speaker 1: close to being a co favorite. What's the simplest explanation

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Speaker 1: for this differential between the rankings and the futures market.

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Speaker 2: You don't want to treat college baseball like it's a

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Speaker 2: one conference sport, and it is. I think that's the

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Speaker 2: dirty little secret that's going on around here is we

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Speaker 2: like to pretend like UC Irvine can win the national title.

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Speaker 2: They can't. Sometimes we like to pretend to Oral Roberts

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Speaker 2: can win the national title. They can't. Sometimes we like

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Speaker 2: to pretend a Big twelve team can win the national title.

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Speaker 2: When was the last team from the Big twelve to one?

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Speaker 2: I believe it was Texas over twenty years ago. Guess what,

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Speaker 2: They're not a Big twelve team anymore.

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Speaker 3: So.

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Speaker 2: I think the dirty little secret in the futures market

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Speaker 2: is that everybody knows that you're not looking for the

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Speaker 2: UCR vines of the world. You're looking for the dip

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Speaker 2: in the SEC teams. Which this is a very very

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Speaker 2: interesting week. We've got Tennessee fallen off the map. We've

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Speaker 2: got Arkansas's bullpen fallen off the map. Had the odds

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Speaker 2: shifted that much on them? No, not enough for me

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Speaker 2: to tell anyone to go get the dip, But we

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Speaker 2: definitely have other teams in that conference to talk about.

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Speaker 1: All right, last week we basically sang the praises of

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Speaker 1: the SEC. It's well deserved. You look up and down

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Speaker 1: this conference, there's you know, ten teams that could make

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Speaker 1: noise through the conference tournament into regional super regionals, potentially

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Speaker 1: make it to Omaha, so deservedly so. But when you

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Speaker 1: look at the top five, as I just mentioned, loan behold,

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Speaker 1: we have three non SEC programs in the top four

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Speaker 1: alone at the national rankings. So let's start with Oregon State.

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Speaker 1: This is going to be an episode where we've bet

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Speaker 1: we kicked the tires on some of these teams. Outside

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Speaker 1: of the Southeastern Conference. The Beavers are good everywhere, but

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Speaker 1: not truly elite in any cystical category. Yes, they hit

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Speaker 1: a lot of home runs, but outside of that, they're slugging,

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Speaker 1: they're on base everything else. They're just really good. They

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Speaker 1: have been road Warriors. They're up to fifth in road RPI.

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Speaker 1: Arquette and Turley batting two to three in their lineup

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Speaker 1: gives them plenty of pop twenty eight home runs ninety

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Speaker 1: eight RBIs combined. But they're two starting pitchers at the

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Speaker 1: top of their rotation, Kleinschmidt and Whitney.

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Speaker 3: They won't remind you.

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Speaker 1: Of Omaha legends like Paul Skeens or Dylan de Lusia.

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Speaker 1: So the question here is do the Beavers have it

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Speaker 1: in them to not just be a cute West Coast story,

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Speaker 1: but to be a real threat to win the national championship?

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Speaker 2: I say absolutely. Now Oregon State over where I've been

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Speaker 2: writing this offseason, I had them peg the very first

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Speaker 2: bet of the year. Actually, I think it's the only

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Speaker 2: bet I have in the app thirty five to one.

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Speaker 2: Twenty five to one is still out there. We'll talk

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Speaker 2: about that later potentially. But the reason why they're going

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Speaker 2: to be battle tested and ready is, Hey, do they

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Speaker 2: have the stat that everybody has to have home runs

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Speaker 2: per nine. The answer is yes, they're thirteenth in the

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Speaker 2: nation right now. They can absolutely swati they're fifth in

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Speaker 2: the nation and road RPI. And why is that important?

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Speaker 2: Because the committee when they make these regionals they treated

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Speaker 2: a little bit like March Madness. The number one team

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Speaker 2: in the West generally needs to be a team in

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Speaker 2: the West, right or a two seed it's in the

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Speaker 2: West should potentially be in the West Coast. They try

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Speaker 2: to play a little geography with the super regional seeds,

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Speaker 2: which means they always give a West Coast team a

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Speaker 2: super regional host seed, and that's where Oregon State is.

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Speaker 2: They are completely in the driver's seed. They have faced

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Speaker 2: the toughest schedule they possibly could as a D one independent, Yes,

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Speaker 2: a D one independent, because they turned down a chance

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Speaker 2: to go to the Mountain West. So they've done everything

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Speaker 2: from a scheduling perspective. They have a huge series with

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Speaker 2: Oregon this weekend. After that it is smooth sailing, no

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Speaker 2: conference championship weekend, and the committee is going to give

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Speaker 2: them at worst the eight super seed, but they're in

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Speaker 2: the supers.

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Speaker 1: Florida State likely has two All Americans Alec lodiz as

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Speaker 1: short hitting four to forty six, and then Jamie.

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Speaker 3: Arnold on the bump.

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Speaker 1: Arnold has it all as a left He's got plus stuff,

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Speaker 1: He's got that low least point. I'll put you on

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Speaker 1: the spot right here at Colin. Is he a better

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Speaker 1: pro prospect than hagen Smith was last year in your opinion?

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Speaker 2: No, he does not have the extra pitch that hagen has.

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Speaker 2: He is very good, but he has more breakdowns and

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Speaker 2: I don't know if that's a mental thing that could

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Speaker 2: be corrected once he gets up to the program. But

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Speaker 2: hagen Smith did not have many letdowns. He only had

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Speaker 2: his let down in the Super Regional. Other than that,

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Speaker 2: hagen Smith was solid whole year. But Jamie Arld has

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Speaker 2: had games where he has fallen. Now Florida State can

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Speaker 2: pick him up. You can talk about strength of schedule

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Speaker 2: being sixty third. Maybe he's not facing the biggest bats,

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Speaker 2: but hagen Smith, every time he took the mound faced

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Speaker 2: the best offenses in the nation, and I can't say

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Speaker 2: that about Jamie Arnold in the schedule that they have.

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Speaker 2: So Florida State's definitely a player for the Super Regionals

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Speaker 2: as far as they go after that, I'm not sure

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Speaker 2: they have it from a whole pitching staff perspective to

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Speaker 2: get it done in winning Omaha.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's close this out in the ACC talking

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Speaker 1: about Clemson not all that similarly from Oregon State. The

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Speaker 1: Tigers have been fantastic on the road, but they're not

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Speaker 1: truly elite in any category other than their bullpen, headlined

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Speaker 1: by Lucas Malstead. He's got that distinctive sidearm delivery one

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Speaker 1: point one one er in seventeen appearances this season, and

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Speaker 1: Reed Garris has slid into that set up man role,

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Speaker 1: but he's someone who still has high end stopper ability.

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Speaker 1: So if this pen remains special, is that enough for

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Speaker 1: them to get to Omaha?

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Speaker 2: The pitching will work in Omaha, but can you survive

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Speaker 2: your regionals and your superregionals? And I think the secret

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Speaker 2: weapon that they have is their head coach Eric Pacage.

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Speaker 2: Now you say, why is he so important? When he

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Speaker 2: took Michigan to the College World Series championship round against Vanderbilt.

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Speaker 2: Do you know what it means to take a team

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Speaker 2: from the Big Ten, from a cold weather school to

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Speaker 2: the championship round against Vandy against who was that Kumar Rocker?

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Speaker 2: Back in the day. I mean, it was highly impressive

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Speaker 2: what they did, and they did it because of their

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Speaker 2: coach and he has the experience. And last year it

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Speaker 2: was down to the wire before Clemson was finally knocked out.

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Speaker 2: They are absolute one of those teams that are in

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Speaker 2: between Supers and Omaha. And when you look at some

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Speaker 2: of their advantatistics, they have a top ten RPI, They

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Speaker 2: have number third road RPI. I would be a little

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Speaker 2: bit nervous about being ninety seventh than Homers per game

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Speaker 2: because you don't know and where they're geographically located. Are

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Speaker 2: you going to try to get in a bomb fest

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Speaker 2: with Georgia? That could be tough you. Clemson could draw

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Speaker 2: a team that doesn't have pop and a lot of pitching.

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Speaker 2: That would be the Mississippi States of the world. That

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Speaker 2: would be you know, I think the Auburns of the world.

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Speaker 2: Teams that, oh, Vanderbilt, I'm sorry, Vanderbilt. Misissippi State are

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Speaker 2: the two SEC teams that are based on pitching and

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Speaker 2: don't have pop. If Clemson draws those two teams, they're

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Speaker 2: in good shape. They draw a Georgia could be a

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Speaker 2: little bit of a different story.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's turn out to the weekend.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to go through day by day, basically pull

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Speaker 1: out some matchups, see what your opinion is. Some of

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Speaker 1: this is instructional in just terms of people coming in

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Speaker 1: casually for the first time betting on college baseball this season,

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Speaker 1: it's eye popping some of the numbers that you have

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Speaker 1: to lay in terms of the quality starter at home.

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Speaker 3: Also, the totals are.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you get whiplash looking at this going from

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Speaker 1: the major's where seven and a half eight, So now

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden you got lines that are set

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Speaker 1: at you know, totals at sixteen or seventeen. Let's start

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Speaker 1: in the SEC Miszoo traveling to Alabama. Tyler Fay on

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Speaker 1: the bump for the Crimson Tide. He is projected, at

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Speaker 1: least by your numbers, a minus seven sixty favorite. So

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Speaker 1: let's get this out of the way here with a

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Speaker 1: number of this big, is it a waste to bet

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Speaker 1: it straight on the money line? You need to immediately

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Speaker 1: jump to a run line or do you tack it

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Speaker 1: onto a parlay as a sweetener. And then the second

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Speaker 1: part of this, justin Lebron continues to play at an

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Speaker 1: All American level, surpassing any expectations of him coming out

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Speaker 1: of high school by a wide margin. He's a freshman Alabama,

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Speaker 1: a freshman All American last year at Alabama. Are you

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Speaker 1: surprised at all that the Crimson time were able to

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Speaker 1: retain him and now he's at this level where he

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Speaker 1: looks like just a full out All American?

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Speaker 2: I am not I'll start with the second question answered first.

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Speaker 2: I am not surprised they were able to retain him.

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Speaker 2: I think the talent dating pool that he's looking for

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Speaker 2: is much better and touch looser than it would be

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Speaker 2: saying high a ball in Wilmington, North Carolina. Plus he's

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Speaker 2: probably making more money, which is really the ultimate decider.

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Speaker 2: So I wasn't surprised they are able to keep him.

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Speaker 2: I think the one comment I'll make is MISSOO is

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Speaker 2: a free square. And I hate to say that for

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Speaker 2: the Missouri grads that are listening, but Missouri Tigers are

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Speaker 2: horrific at baseball. I don't know why they have a program.

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Speaker 2: I know there's some clip about me saying that my

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Speaker 2: own program should blow up the Missouri baseball They should

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Speaker 2: probably just kind of concede the rest of the year.

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Speaker 2: Now that I say that, they'll come out and get

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Speaker 2: a game against Alabeo. But they have been very, very

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Speaker 2: horrific from a pitching, from a hitting. They are not

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Speaker 2: SEC level. I'm not sure what level they are. So

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Speaker 2: when you ask a number like minus seven sixty two,

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Speaker 2: you're probably gonna see minus four hundred and minus six

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Speaker 2: hundred in the market. What do you do with that?

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Speaker 2: I like all those options you gave me. Calibres often

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Speaker 2: I do. Everybody loves in college football. Everybody loves the

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Speaker 2: round robin. They love the G five round robin, they

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Speaker 2: love the Colin Stucky round robin on Saturdays. I like

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Speaker 2: the calling round robin. We all like the round robins.

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Speaker 2: That's exactly what whoever it's t is that's facing Missouri

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Speaker 2: is They're a party a round robin. And if you

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Speaker 2: want to go single game on your team covering the

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Speaker 2: run line, take the Friday night ace. That's probably your

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Speaker 2: best shot.

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Speaker 1: We talked a lot about Clemson already. Let's get into

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Speaker 1: their matchup here against NC State. Clemson in the past

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Speaker 1: month have held seven opponents of three runs or less.

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Speaker 1: Will that trend continue? And Raleigh against a Wolfpack team

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Speaker 1: that is very difficult to beat on their home diamond.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is going to be a good one. Say

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Speaker 2: Clemson is five and one into ACC road series, and

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Speaker 2: I think that's a big part of the handicap. When

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Speaker 2: I go look at two or three seeds that are

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Speaker 2: going in regionals on the road, I want to see

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Speaker 2: what you did on the road against your toughest competition.

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Speaker 2: Right now, Clemson would track out pretty well in the resume. Now,

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Speaker 2: inn C State has yet to lose a series at home.

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Speaker 2: But I think the more interesting factor here is the

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Speaker 2: total Friday night totals in NC State home games last

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Speaker 2: three have been a total of twelve, fourteen and twenty

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Speaker 2: four runs. A lot of runs are going on in

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Speaker 2: NC State games in the opener that could be wanting

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Speaker 2: to save the pen until Saturday Sunday, that could be

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Speaker 2: the starter is not getting it done. I am going

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Speaker 2: to be specifically looking for an over in this Clemson

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Speaker 2: NC State game on Thursday night. I know I projected

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Speaker 2: at twelve point.

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Speaker 1: Four Oklahoma Georgia basically based on your projections a coin

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Speaker 1: flip fourteen in terms of the total. I know that

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Speaker 1: Georgia has been banged up, but the doors just held

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Speaker 1: them to ten runs across three games. In a series sweep.

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Speaker 1: It's so much for our Georgia picks, Georgia Tech and

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Speaker 1: Georgia in the futures market. Both those teams get swept

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Speaker 1: last week. How concerns should Wes Johnson be about the

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Speaker 1: return of Zabarowski to stabilize this lineup where you think

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Speaker 1: there is an opportunity to buy low on the Bulldogs.

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Speaker 2: I think he should be concerned if Zabarowski was not

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Speaker 2: coming back now, all indications where he was game time decision.

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Speaker 2: It's a foot ankle slash injury. Everything I've read on

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Speaker 2: the you know on the on the twitters. He could

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Speaker 2: have played, he didn't play. So if he comes back

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Speaker 2: to the it comes back from the injury and he's fine,

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Speaker 2: he slaves his power, everything is great. But when you

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Speaker 2: lose you're leading player and punching in RBIs I think

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Speaker 2: he's a fifty five on the ear. Then you have

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Speaker 2: to start swapping spots in the lineup, and sometimes teams

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Speaker 2: and players. I don't care if you're playing for the

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Speaker 2: Mets or the Yankees or you're playing Beer League Softball.

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Speaker 2: If you have been assigned the ninth hole the entire year,

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Speaker 2: you're comfortable in that hole. You know your role, but

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Speaker 2: an injury happens, you get flipped up to the two

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Speaker 2: or the one spot. I mean, it's a completely different

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Speaker 2: mental chamber. So I think that's what's going on with

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Speaker 2: Georgia with the loss of one of the biggest sticks

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Speaker 2: in the lineup. I think the adjustment hit them a

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Speaker 2: little bit hard. It's definitely a monitoring situation. It's not

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Speaker 2: a by situation until I see more stability.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned the Big.

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Speaker 1: Twelve hasn't produced a national champion in about two decades.

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Speaker 1: They're still playing baseball in that conference we got BYU

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Speaker 1: Arizona State. It's been boom er bus for Arizona States.

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Speaker 3: Ben Jacobs this season.

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Speaker 1: Their lefty ace has either been locked in or he's

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Speaker 1: been all over the zone. He has three double digit

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Speaker 1: strikeout performances and then he has outings like he did

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Speaker 1: against Kansas where he issued seven walks. Is there any

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Speaker 1: interest in fading him in a spot just from the

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Speaker 1: price he may go off at minus three twenty minus

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Speaker 1: three thirty can be while you get it on. If

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Speaker 1: he struggles to find the zone.

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Speaker 2: BYU can hit and that's good. Now. The question is

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Speaker 2: is whether Ben Jacobs can locate. And also we don't

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Speaker 2: have the database we have in MLB mpires, but man,

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Speaker 2: I'd love to have some NCAA umpires to figure out

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Speaker 2: which ones like overs and unders Ben Jacobs is locating.

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Speaker 2: Then it's going to be a problem. But Byu can

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Speaker 2: absolutely hit and it is a spot that I will

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Speaker 2: be looking at for a run line on the underdog.

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Speaker 2: I project this Arizona State minus three twenty a total

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Speaker 2: of about fifteen point three and on Thursday night, Hey,

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Speaker 2: there's like four great games. I'll be betting on all four

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Speaker 2: of them.

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Speaker 1: Before we get into the Friday slate, let's talk about

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Speaker 1: the national game of the week. A and M at Texas,

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Speaker 1: the lone Star Showdown. Jim Schlosnagel coaching against his old

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Speaker 1: team after leading the Aggies to the College World Series Final,

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Speaker 1: a runner up season for them, and A and M

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Speaker 1: is at least at this point in the season, I

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Speaker 1: think there's parallels between them and what the Florida Gators

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Speaker 1: did last year. They both started either one or two

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Speaker 1: in the preseason, pull dropped out of the rankings altogether.

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Speaker 1: Florida got hot late, made it to Omaha, and all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden, you know, just in the past month.

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Speaker 1: They beat Tennessee in a series on the road in Knoxville.

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Speaker 1: They did the same to Arkansas in Fayetteville. So is

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Speaker 1: this an opportunity to buy an A and M team

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Speaker 1: that's hot? Clearly they need this against the number one

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Speaker 1: team in the country.

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Speaker 2: Well, for all of you that have read my written work,

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Speaker 2: I want to say thank you, because raise your hand

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Speaker 2: if you have a fifty to one in your back

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Speaker 2: pocket on Texas A and M. So it was a

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Speaker 2: nice dip at one and nine. Then they woke up

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Speaker 2: on Saturday against Tennessee and took two and took the series.

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Speaker 2: And now they're for real again. And we mentioned it

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Speaker 2: on last week's first BBOC podcast on college Baseball for

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Speaker 2: the season, now that Jay slaveo Lette has everybody healthy

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Speaker 2: around him in that lineup, absolutely raking. We're talking Jack

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Speaker 2: Caggs type raking stuff. It's just that he doesn't pitch.

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Speaker 2: So A and M is bringing it in every single

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Speaker 2: area right now. If you can go on the road

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Speaker 2: and take a series from Tennessee, then you can go

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Speaker 2: on the road and take a series from Arkansas, you

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Speaker 2: can win the national title. So this is a monster

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Speaker 2: series this weekend and there may be some things in

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Speaker 2: the Texas numbers, don't I really like that. We'll talk

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Speaker 2: about that later.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned A and M Texas as the headliner. But

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Speaker 1: this is a really deep weekend in terms of Marquy matchups.

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Speaker 1: So let's look at LSU and tennessee a common thread

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Speaker 1: in the SEC. The big dogs are all nails at

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Speaker 1: home and LSU is twenty five and two at alex

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Speaker 1: Box this season. But this should be a coin flip

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Speaker 1: with Doyle and Anderson on the bump going off against

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Speaker 1: each other.

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Speaker 3: Who do you like in that matchup?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I project this pretty much a coin flip.

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Speaker 2: I've got Kate Anderson at minus one twenty at home

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Speaker 2: and alex Box, I've got this about fifteen point two runs.

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Speaker 2: The question is, I mean that is not an easy

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Speaker 2: place to play outside outside of Duty Noble and Bob

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Speaker 2: Walker and Fayville, there just aren't a lot of places

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Speaker 2: like alex Box. So we'll see how Liam Doyle translates that.

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Speaker 2: We'll see if he can get his team. He was

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Speaker 2: stable for them, the losses of a com on other

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Speaker 2: people's time. We'll see you to me on Friday. This

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Speaker 2: is the pitching matchup. That gets the main TV Liam

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Speaker 2: Doyle and Kate Anderson because both of these teams can

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Speaker 2: in the national title led by these two pitchers. And

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Speaker 2: we talked about Liam Doyle at Link last week that

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Speaker 2: he can lead Tennessee to a national title, but the

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Speaker 2: rest of the staff has to pick it up for

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Speaker 2: Tennessee here, so huge series. I suspect else will be

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Speaker 2: short favorites. That's exactly where I projected. I'll be probably

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Speaker 2: looking at Weather and Wind and I expect a lot

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Speaker 2: of runs in this series.

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Speaker 1: I had some notes down for Oregon, Oregon State, but

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Speaker 1: we're going to save that for later in the episode

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Speaker 1: when we talk futures, because I think you're interested still

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Speaker 1: in the Beavers at twenty five to one, possibly thirty

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Speaker 1: to one out there in the market. So let's turn

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Speaker 1: to Saturday and I'll just let you cook on Arkansas

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Speaker 1: and Gauge Wood.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I love Gate Listen, I love my team. I'm sorry,

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Speaker 2: I'm glad we have editors because every time Arkansas Baseball

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Speaker 2: gets mentioned, the closer we get to Omaha, the more

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Speaker 2: crazy I get for and everybody knows who's a razorback

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Speaker 2: fan Lit's Engage. Wood is back for the Razorbacks. It

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Speaker 2: was a starting pitching rotation that we were going to

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Speaker 2: have early in the season got hurt. We had to

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Speaker 2: turn former closer Gabe Gackle into a starter. Just this

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Speaker 2: past weekend, gage Wood is back and Gabe Gackle returned

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Speaker 2: to his closing role and through like five innings on

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Speaker 2: the second game series against Texas A and M. So

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Speaker 2: what does this mean? Teams are not having to deal

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Speaker 2: with gage Wood starting and Gabe Gackle as the relief,

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Speaker 2: sort of a two headed monster that you're always going

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Speaker 2: to get on the second game of the Razorbacks. So

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Speaker 2: I have adjusted my numbers this week where I am

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Speaker 2: now taking closers into consideration. So it's not just team

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Speaker 2: era FIP and x FIP, It's not just your starting pitchers.

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Speaker 2: Now I'm integrating closers and closers that go five innings,

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Speaker 2: closers are go one inning, closers are going out. I

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Speaker 2: know exactly how long they go and I integrate that

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Speaker 2: into the numbers. Now when we look at this series,

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Speaker 2: specifically Arkansas going to Florida, I got Gagewood minus one

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Speaker 2: twenty six on the road against Aidan King in the

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Speaker 2: second game of that series. Have a total somewhere around fifteen.

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Speaker 2: I think it's important to see how Gabe Gackle is

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Speaker 2: used because knowing Dave van Horn and what he did

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Speaker 2: with Kevin Copps a couple of years ago, he can

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Speaker 2: start and go seven innings. He can come in the

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Speaker 2: second and finish the game. I think Gabe Gackle is

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Speaker 2: that role. So that's the biggest name you're going to

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Speaker 2: want to watch. Not so much the gage Wood is

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Speaker 2: charting again for the.

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Speaker 1: Racebacks Kentucky ride and high flying high whichever expression for

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Speaker 1: coming off that win against Tennessee. That's one that can

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Speaker 1: really change the overall ceiling or at least the expectations

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Speaker 1: for a program that made a deep run last year.

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Speaker 1: They're hosting South Carolina here. If there was anything on

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Speaker 1: the board that I was interested in playing under. You

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Speaker 1: have two lineups that are not exactly fearsome by SEC standards.

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Speaker 1: They rise and fall with their pitching staffs. Are you

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Speaker 1: targeting some unders, whether it's on Saturday or earlier in

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Speaker 1: the series.

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Speaker 2: Who doesn't love dink and dunk offenses in college baseball? Right?

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Speaker 2: I think you know the Wildcats are off a series

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Speaker 2: win at Tennessee. They won the Saturday Sunday games a

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Speaker 2: little bit surprising. Put another ripple against Tennessee here, and

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Speaker 2: what's going on in play pitching leads this team. They're

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Speaker 2: much better numbers form the staff than South Carolina is.

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Speaker 2: So I am leaning to Kentucky in every game. I

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Speaker 2: make Nick McKay minus two sixty one against Jake McCoy

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Speaker 2: on that Saturday game. Saturday game, specifically, on the Friday

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Speaker 2: night game, I've got Nate Harris minus two twenty two

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Speaker 2: against Brandon Stone. So overall, I've got about a minus

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Speaker 2: two twenty to a minus two sixty range for each

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Speaker 2: individual game For Kentucky. I like them better overall with

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Speaker 2: the numbers, and I'm going to look to play on

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Speaker 2: the Wildcats this weekend if they are short of that

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Speaker 2: minus two twenty number.

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Speaker 1: Now, your projections go all the way through Sunday. What's

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Speaker 1: the best way for people to follow you? Is it

433
00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:24,600
Speaker 1: written articles on Action Network on your Twitter page to

434
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 1: be able to see what your takes are as these

435
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 1: series progress through the weekend. Obviously that will have a

436
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:32,399
Speaker 1: big impact on your projections totals and sides.

437
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:37,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, my projections come out midweek every week on three

438
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,120
Speaker 2: straight and I like to tweet about them and talk

439
00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 2: about them, and I make my picks there on the

440
00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 2: site and you can go and see what I'm leaning on.

441
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:46,360
Speaker 2: Well before numbers are out, I will show what I'm

442
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,360
Speaker 2: leaning on, what I want to take, and I will

443
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,439
Speaker 2: show what I've fired on and of course always tracking

444
00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:54,919
Speaker 2: keeping consistency, so you know, check it out there, because

445
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,720
Speaker 2: I think if everybody wants to know what my process

446
00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 2: is for betting, I set these numbers mid up up midweek.

447
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,480
Speaker 2: I pay attention to rotations, and then I follow Project

448
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:07,679
Speaker 2: three Straight, which announces the starting pitchers. It's a Twitter

449
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 2: account that I created to relay starting pitcher information once

450
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,879
Speaker 2: it comes in, so I think it's like one of

451
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 2: a kind. It's nothing else, like they're out out there.

452
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 2: But whenever pitching information comes in, I'll verify that my

453
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:21,960
Speaker 2: pitchers were right for the rotations, and if they are

454
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 2: and it's a number that I like, generally I'm going

455
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,520
Speaker 2: to fire. I'll look at wind, I'll look at recent

456
00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 2: pitching performance. I do a little bit of lefty righty split,

457
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:31,199
Speaker 2: a little bit of Sierra work, but generally I know

458
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 2: which way I'm going to go on a number, because

459
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:35,959
Speaker 2: you know, we calculate That's why we calculate them prehand

460
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 2: and try to guess the rotations threehand because this is

461
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 2: not MLB, right, There isn't five set guys and you're

462
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 2: gonna and maybe the Dodgers have a sex in the rotation.

463
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 2: But this changes all the time, and I think last

464
00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,359
Speaker 2: weekend was pretty frustrating because a lot of series started

465
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:50,680
Speaker 2: on Thursday because it was Easter weekend. Well, a lot

466
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 2: of managers don't want to throw their game one starter

467
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,400
Speaker 2: from Fridays on Thursday. They want to keep them fresh

468
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 2: for Friday and keep their Saturday gay on Saturday. So

469
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,960
Speaker 2: you saw a lot of weird names in game one

470
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 2: of series last week. So that's where it becomes tough

471
00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 2: predicting rotations because your series may start on Thursday and

472
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 2: you may not use your Friday guys. So I'll do

473
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:08,919
Speaker 2: my best to keep up with it, and you know,

474
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,120
Speaker 2: the projections will be live and everybody can check them out.

475
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,199
Speaker 1: I mentioned earlier that there's a differential between college football

476
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 1: college basketball. I can speak to this having played the

477
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 1: futures market and the game for the past nine months.

478
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,680
Speaker 1: For football and basketball, you're not getting the number one

479
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 1: team in the country midway through the season at double digits.

480
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 1: You're just not you know. Duke basketball was going off

481
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 1: at three to one. By the time January rolled around,

482
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 1: they were there with Auburn is a co favorite in

483
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 1: college basketball college football. At the point where Oregon was

484
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 1: starting to separate a little bit to get that win

485
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 1: over Ohio State, the best you were going to get

486
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 1: was five to one, six to one on the Ducks. Meanwhile,

487
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 1: the number one team in the country is sitting there

488
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 1: at ten to one, eleven to one. Are you biting

489
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 1: on the Texas Longhorns at this point before their series with.

490
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,160
Speaker 2: The Yaggies, did a little bit of a deep dive

491
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 2: recording this on Tuesday. A little bit of a deep

492
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 2: dive on Monday about Texas our number one team in

493
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 2: the nation that is looking fantastic. More important, I want

494
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 2: to know about this era whip that are second in

495
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 2: the nation. Is this pitching staff that good?

496
00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:06,159
Speaker 1: Well?

497
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 2: Friday Night starter Jared Spencer could get some regression in

498
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 2: his number. His ex FIP is a full one and

499
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 2: a half higher than what his actual ERA is and

500
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 2: what that means is there is a little bit fake

501
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 2: and it may have some movement. Louke Harrison Ruger Rio

502
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,920
Speaker 2: rijoas also their two pitchers for Saturday and Sunday. They

503
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 2: have the same issues with their numbers, where their xFIP

504
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 2: is higher more than a run higher than their ERA.

505
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:30,200
Speaker 2: That tells me that's going to come back now. Dylan

506
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 2: Valantez is their closer. You get a ton of punch outs.

507
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 2: His numbers are for real. I don't really look at

508
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,919
Speaker 2: x FIP for closers. Different situation. This Texas A and

509
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 2: M series is huge, but I am hesitant on Texas

510
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 2: because their x FIP is so high as a team,

511
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 2: and it's hard for me to ignore a team because

512
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 2: their top thirty five in fielding percentage, their top thirty

513
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 2: five in homers per nine. Those are two things that

514
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 2: we look for. But at the same time, even being

515
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 2: seventeen and four in Quad one and Quad two games,

516
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 2: they deserve the number one ranking in the country. xFIP

517
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 2: tells me this team may have a little bit of

518
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,679
Speaker 2: fraud to it. So I'm not firing quite yet.

519
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 1: Speaking of teams that potentially have a little bit of

520
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,399
Speaker 1: fraud to them, Vandy just put the clamps on the

521
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 1: Georgia lineup, and no one's really done that across an

522
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 1: entire series this entire season. I understand that there were

523
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 1: some players out of the Bulldog's lineup, but still impressive

524
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 1: to hold Georgia to just ten runs in three games

525
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,879
Speaker 1: twenty two to one to win the national championship. Has

526
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 1: that peaked your interest or do you think it's time

527
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 1: to wait and see Because when you look at Vandy's

528
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:28,479
Speaker 1: schedule coming up, it is brutal.

529
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 3: So there's an opportunity for them that number do.

530
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 1: Inflate or potentially for them to solidify themselves as a

531
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:34,160
Speaker 1: real contender.

532
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, they have the Vanderbilt has the second toughest remaining

533
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 2: schedule in the nation. Arkansas is the toughest, but really

534
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 2: every SEC team except for Mississippi State has the toughest

535
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:47,200
Speaker 2: strength of schedule in the nation. Now, Vanderbilt, I love.

536
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,120
Speaker 2: I can't get over the fact that Arkansas went there

537
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,200
Speaker 2: and swept them. And the reason why they swept him

538
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 2: is because of the six and that shows out in

539
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 2: the numbers Vanderbilts one hundred and sixty eighth and home

540
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 2: runs per nine. That to me does not scream as

541
00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 2: a team that can survives regionals and super regionals, you're

542
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 2: gonna have to stick against some of these teams are

543
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 2: gonna come in, not even counting for the teams that

544
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 2: just magically get hot and so go on a run

545
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 2: like World Roberts. Right, So, eighteen to ten, that's a

546
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:12,959
Speaker 2: great number in Quad one Quad two games, But this

547
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,880
Speaker 2: is a pitch heavy team that is on the outside

548
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,159
Speaker 2: of the super regional seed. Right now, I'm gonna hold

549
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 2: on the twenty two to one Vanderbilts on my radar.

550
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 2: I've got to see an increase in offensive production.

551
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 1: I promise to hold off from the West Coast matchup,

552
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 1: but I gotta get into it before we even talk

553
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 1: about any future implications. Let's just talk about the top

554
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 1: fifteen matchup on the West Coast between Oregon and Oregon State.

555
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 1: It's probably gonna come down to the matchup on Friday

556
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 1: between the lefties kel Joe and Grinsell. Kel Joe got

557
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 1: banged around by cal State Northridge in his last outing,

558
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,640
Speaker 1: while Grinsell for the Ducks has been on an absolute

559
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,400
Speaker 1: tier coming off a complete game seven K, one armed

560
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 1: run performance against UCLA. Are you on the home team here,

561
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 1: and even if this matchup ends up shaking the way

562
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 1: of the Ducks and not the Beavers, are you still

563
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 1: a believer in Oregon State sealing long term.

564
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go ahead and start with this Oregon series.

565
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 2: This is a big one, and I do project Grayson

566
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,919
Speaker 2: Grenzel to be minus one forty on the opening night

567
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 2: Friday Night against Oregon State against Nelson Keljo. I think

568
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 2: that's the only chance that Oregon has to win a

569
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 2: game in this series. I make this overall series price

570
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 2: if you can find them out there at various books,

571
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 2: I make it minus one ten. So if you see

572
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 2: any shade towards the Oregon Way over minus one ten,

573
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 2: then I think there's value on Oregon State. I don't

574
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: think that's the best bet though. I think the best

575
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 2: bet is a future on Oregon State. There are still

576
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 2: plenty of books out there nationwide that have twenty five

577
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 2: to one on a team that is and let me

578
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 2: give you the resume here because this is important. They

579
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 2: are third in the division the D one Baseball Poll.

580
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 2: They are eleventh in RPI. That leaves an extremely high

581
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 2: probability they're going to be granted a super regional seed

582
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 2: at gos Stadium. They're going to host regionals. They're going

583
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:52,120
Speaker 2: to host super regionals. Their path to Omaha goes through

584
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 2: Corvallis through their backyard and that is a huge advantage.

585
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 2: Taking to consideration, Oregon State has the sixty third rank

586
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 2: and strength of schedule remaining. They don't have a conference

587
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 2: championship tournament. This is a must buy if you don't

588
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 2: have Oregon State money. This is a team that should

589
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:10,639
Speaker 2: be inn O Maha. And they're still listed out there

590
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,680
Speaker 2: at twenty five to one, and if you go past that,

591
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 2: they're one of the best. You know, thirteenth and homers

592
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,120
Speaker 2: per nine this year. I don't think there's any other

593
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 2: I mean futures right now Calberies, they're more about what's

594
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:25,160
Speaker 2: your path, what's your story to get there? And right

595
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 2: now Oregon State everything in the numbers from RPI and

596
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 2: the in the D one pole. They're absolutely super regional team.

597
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:33,880
Speaker 2: They're gonna draw somebody to come up there. It could

598
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 2: be rainy and nasty, and the Beavers are gonna love it.

599
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,920
Speaker 2: So sign me up. I've already got Oregon State. The

600
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 2: very first future I put in it was thirty five

601
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:43,919
Speaker 2: to one. There are twenty five to ones out there. Grab.

602
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:46,800
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603
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,600
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604
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605
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606
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607
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608
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631
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632
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634
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636
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637
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 1: and why or text hope and why. All right, Colin,

638
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:19,359
Speaker 1: I'll get you out on this one. It's one of

639
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 1: the best weekends of the regular season in college baseball.

640
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 1: What's on the main screen for you? And what are

641
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 1: on the two secondary screens that you have in your

642
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 1: little batcave watching all this baseball action?

643
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 2: Well, Arkansas, Florida always against the main screen gets the audio.

644
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 2: I'm in the pool, listening, bitching, cussing. Every Arkansas game

645
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 2: is like that. Unless I'm actually down in bomb Walker,

646
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 2: then I'm doing a lot more drinking. Tennessee. LSU is

647
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 2: going to get all the audio when I'm not watching

648
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 2: the Razorbacks Oregon. Oregon State is going to have a

649
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 2: large place on my TV. Thankfully. I think the times

650
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 2: are going to work out where I can get that

651
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 2: on its own. I think if you're also on watch

652
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 2: this weekend, you're gonna want to watch Missippi State in Auburn.

653
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 2: A crucial series for two teams that want to be

654
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 2: included in regionals. They want to be two and three seeds.

655
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 2: They've got work to do, and so this is a

656
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 2: series that I project mostly about minus one fifteen either

657
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 2: way in every game. Crucial series happening on down in Auburn.

658
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 2: And once you get outside of that, let's go look

659
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 2: at Jamie Arnold on the road against Louisville. Louisville has

660
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 2: been very surprising this year. I do project Jamie Arnold

661
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 2: minus one fifty in his matchup for Florida State. We'll

662
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 2: see what they can do on the road. I continue

663
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 2: to look for signs of life from the ACC that

664
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 2: one of their teams can actually win the national title.

665
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 2: And we'll see what happens with Clemson this weekend, because

666
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 2: right now that would be the team that you would

667
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 2: look at. But I'm not so sure because Virginia UNC's

668
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:40,239
Speaker 2: on the rise. But I don't think you can get

669
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 2: it done. There's not a lot of consistency going on

670
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 2: in acc they'll do it.

671
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 1: For today's episode, thanks again for joining us. Special thanks

672
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 1: to my co host Colin Wilson and our sponsor Underdog Fantasy.

673
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 3: I'm Mike Calabreys.

674
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 1: Next week we will return for more college baseball coverage

675
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 1: on the Diamond. Good luck with all your bets, and

676
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 1: we'll see you next time at make Bets on Campus.

677
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

678
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

679
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,560
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