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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day

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Speaker 1: for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and

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Speaker 1: anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We get

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Speaker 1: perspective from William Dudley. Bill Dudley describe transitory on the

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Speaker 1: way down. I don't understand that. How do we have

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Speaker 1: transitory disinflation?

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Speaker 2: Remember, goods prices went up dramatically because during the pandemic

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Speaker 2: people bought a lot more goods and bought a lot

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Speaker 2: less services as they stayed home. Now we're on the

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Speaker 2: flip side of that, they're buying less goods more services.

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Speaker 2: So goods prices are very weak and earned me very

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Speaker 2: weak for a while as people have managed their inventories down.

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Speaker 2: But once that comes to an then goods prices will

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Speaker 2: level off, and so the benefit to line inflation from

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Speaker 2: following goods prices will be over and you'll be stuck

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Speaker 2: with what's happening in the services side. Look, I think

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Speaker 2: this is a very good report today and the FED

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Speaker 2: should be pretty cheered by this, But I don't think

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Speaker 2: it changes what they're going to do at the July meeting,

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Speaker 2: because they that they're looking at the totality of the

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Speaker 2: data over the last three months going to the July meeting,

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Speaker 2: and the reality is the commy is still doing quite well.

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Speaker 2: We had two percent growth in the second quarter. If

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Speaker 2: you look at the Ladd FED GDP now tracker for

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Speaker 2: the third quarter, it's at two point three percent. So

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Speaker 2: the e commy really hasn't slowed down enough to make

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Speaker 2: the FIT confident that they're going to see that slack

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Speaker 2: in all their work that they that they want. What

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Speaker 2: I think this does do is opens up the question

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Speaker 2: is could July be the last one? And that's certainly possible,

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Speaker 2: because you know they won't they won't move at the meeting.

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Speaker 2: After July. They'll take a break, just like they did

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Speaker 2: this last time, and then we're going to get to

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Speaker 2: November first. Well, it was a long time between now

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Speaker 2: and November first. I can imagine by that point it's

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Speaker 2: possible that they'll see enough news that makes some confident

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Speaker 2: that they've done enough, so I think I think the

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Speaker 2: November rate high is really up for grabs at this point.

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Speaker 3: Bill, you talked about how disinflation might be transitory and

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Speaker 3: that there could be a reinflation once the base effects

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Speaker 3: are stripped out, and especially as real incomes continue to

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Speaker 3: rise at a faster pace as inflation comes in. What

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Speaker 3: do you have to see to believe in the disinflation

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Speaker 3: that it will hold and revert back to a sub

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Speaker 3: two percent inflation norm over the longer term.

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Speaker 2: For me, it's all about the labor market. I want

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Speaker 2: to see slow down and pay one plant growth. I

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Speaker 2: want to see you rise in the interplaying rate, and

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Speaker 2: most especially I want to see further moderation wages. So

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Speaker 2: labor markets too tight, then you're not gonna get inflation

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Speaker 2: back down in two percent.

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Speaker 1: That's that's the key, Bill Dudley, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us. Your commitment of Bloomberg surveillance really really appreciated.

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Speaker 1: William Dudley, writing for Bloomberg Opinion, of course, a former

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Speaker 1: president of the New York Fed. Thanks to zero Hedge,

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Speaker 1: they had out yesterday a Michael Gape in production That

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Speaker 1: is a chart from Bank of America that showed the

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Speaker 1: fan distribution of our American inflation, where we could see

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Speaker 1: the surprise of a normal disinflation back to the two

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Speaker 1: percent level, or maybe something stasis three four percent, or

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Speaker 1: dare I say we could even see sticky inflation and

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Speaker 1: arise as disinflation moves a lower A lot of confusing

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Speaker 1: trends in math. Michael Gaban joins US NOW head of

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Speaker 1: US Economics. Michael, what's the key determinant of how disinflation unfolds?

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Speaker 4: I think, I mean just I think it's catching on

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Speaker 4: with what Bill Dudley just said. Does the labor market

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Speaker 4: soften enough to give you confidence that services inflation will

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Speaker 4: keep inflation running around two percent? So for me, it's

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Speaker 4: about broad based disinflation across services. Yes, we should get

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Speaker 4: some payback in goods prices, we saw that again this

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Speaker 4: month with used cars. But can we get a combination

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Speaker 4: of disinfl in services so beyond shelter? I agree with you.

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure ourline Ferris fell eight percent on the month,

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Speaker 4: But is it broad based enough to make you confident

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Speaker 4: that the new trend or we're back to our prior

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Speaker 4: trend of roughly two percent?

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Speaker 3: What do you make of what Billaudly was just talking about, Michael,

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Speaker 3: that you can't see this ongoing disinflation unless the labor

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Speaker 3: market cracks, unless you see a bit more loosening in

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Speaker 3: what we see in the job space.

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Speaker 5: Do you agree with that?

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Speaker 3: Do you think we need to see that pain in

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Speaker 3: order to create a subsistence in this low inflation.

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Speaker 4: I do agree with it. Now, it doesn't necessarily mean

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Speaker 4: the FED keeps hiking. I agree with the narrative of

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Speaker 4: I think the FED will hiking in July. I're if

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Speaker 4: we're posting point two's on core from here, it'll call

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Speaker 4: into question what they have to do after that. So

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Speaker 4: they may stay on hold. They may be reluctant to

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Speaker 4: cut until they see more evidence that the labor market

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Speaker 4: is imbalance, that supply of labor and demand for labor

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Speaker 4: are more imbalanced. So that argument may be more about

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Speaker 4: how quickly the FED cuts or when it cuts, than

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Speaker 4: it is how high the FED goes in the near term.

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Speaker 3: This is an interesting distinction because Bill Dudley has been

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Speaker 3: pretty hawkish in terms of the FED having to do

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Speaker 3: more in order to get inflation under control, and yet

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Speaker 3: he just came on and said, this is a great

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Speaker 3: report and this may be the last rate hike that

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Speaker 3: we see from the Fed this month. They may not

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Speaker 3: go in September. That brings us to November. A lot

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Speaker 3: of data in between. Is that bullish or bearish for bonds?

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Speaker 3: Is that bullish or bearish for the idea of how

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Speaker 3: long the Fed can hold rates at a high level?

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Speaker 4: I think unbalanced. You'd have to conclude that it's bullish

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Speaker 4: in the sense that we're seeing disinflation in the US

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Speaker 4: economy that is gradually becoming more broad based in an

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Speaker 4: environment where the labor market still is very healthy and

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Speaker 4: the unemployment rate is low. So again, I think what

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Speaker 4: Bill was saying was if this is the new run

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Speaker 4: rate eight, then yes, it would call into question hikes

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Speaker 4: beyond beyond July, and it might give you more confidence

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Speaker 4: that's a less pain in the labor market is needed

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Speaker 4: to convince and give the Fed confidence that inflation stability,

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Speaker 4: price stability will be restored. So on net, I think

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Speaker 4: it's hard to argue that disinflation in an environment of

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Speaker 4: a strong labor market, you know, is bearish. I think

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Speaker 4: at the moment that's a bullish view.

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Speaker 1: Where are you a nominal GDP? I mean, Michael Gaban

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Speaker 1: just simply here, if we go out one year, dare

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Speaker 1: I say out two years? Not that anybody's modeling out

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Speaker 1: to twenty twenty five, but do we get back to

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Speaker 1: some kind of four percent top line GDP? Two percent

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Speaker 1: inflation two percent real GDP?

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Speaker 4: Probably not until twenty twenty five, if most of our

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Speaker 4: baseline forecasts are accurate. For let's call it gradual disinflation

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Speaker 4: and perhaps a hiccup in growth here in the short run,

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Speaker 4: if growth continues to slow down, you might get you

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Speaker 4: might get something around four percent temporarily, but I think

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Speaker 4: nominal GDP growth is likely to remain pretty healthy until

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Speaker 4: you get into twenty twenty five and inflation maybe is

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Speaker 4: settled down to around two percent.

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Speaker 3: Or speaking with Michael Gape and if Bank of America

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Speaker 3: and Michael you were saying that if this data does continue,

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Speaker 3: that does seem like a likely case. I just want

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Speaker 3: to get a sense from you on the real wages point.

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Speaker 3: How much does that make it difficult to see ongoing disinflation,

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Speaker 3: that real wages are rising at an accelerating pace.

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Speaker 4: I think it makes it difficult if you're a policy

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Speaker 4: maker and you're thinking, you know, I need to get

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Speaker 4: demand and supply into better balance. But what I'm seeing

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Speaker 4: as a consumer that continues to want to spend and

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Speaker 4: is getting significant increases in real wages, so it may

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Speaker 4: be hard for them to, you know, again, make that

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Speaker 4: conclusion that we're on a path back to two. It's

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Speaker 4: about confidence in that outlook. So you need a combination

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Speaker 4: then of actual evidence on the ground that you know,

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Speaker 4: where is the new trend in inflation, for example, is

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Speaker 4: it point two or is this a one off and

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Speaker 4: we go back to a point three point threees are

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Speaker 4: more the run rate or you need a collection of

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Speaker 4: evidence on what the new run rate is, plus where

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Speaker 4: spending in real wage data evolve. Again, this may ultimately

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Speaker 4: be about the timing of cuts and how quickly those

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Speaker 4: cuts come in, and the near term path for the

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Speaker 4: FED may be more about these prints on inflation. Inflation

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Speaker 4: may dominate whether the FED hikes beyond July, but the

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Speaker 4: cutting environment when they're back to a neutral rate of

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Speaker 4: interest on the other side, could very much be about

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Speaker 4: that labor market story.

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Speaker 3: Meanwhile, counter programming as Richmond FED President Tom Barkin, who's

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Speaker 3: speaking at a separate event that came out in tandem

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Speaker 3: with the CPI data saying that the inflation rate is

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Speaker 3: still too high, that the FED has been moving aggressively

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Speaker 3: as aggressively as it could against inflation, and talking about

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Speaker 3: the longer term view. Michael, if we do see the

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Speaker 3: rate hike that we get this month as the last

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Speaker 3: in the rate hiking cycle, how long do you expel

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Speaker 3: rates in the US to remain about five point three percent,

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Speaker 3: give or take, for the foreseeable future.

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Speaker 4: Well, we have the first cut coming in May of

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Speaker 4: next year, next year, so our baseline still has another

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Speaker 4: hike beyond July, but we've highlighted that that ultimately will

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Speaker 4: be data dependent and we'll have to see how things evolve.

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Speaker 4: Our first cut in an end to balance sheet runoff

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Speaker 4: would be in May of next year. So the debate

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Speaker 4: on the committee is some combination of higher or for longer,

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Speaker 4: and I think they would be inclined to want again.

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Speaker 4: This is about the evidence, the accumulation of evidence and

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Speaker 4: confidence about restoring price stability. So we don't have that

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Speaker 4: first cut until May of next year.

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Speaker 1: Michael Gape, and thank you so much, and congratulations on

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Speaker 1: that really informative Bank of America charter. The last twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours. Megan Horneman joins us downt investment Officer Verdant's

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Speaker 1: Capital Megan. Do you change your outlook with this disinflation report?

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Speaker 6: No, I think this was a good report. I do

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Speaker 6: agree with that inflation's going in the right direction. Disinflation

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Speaker 6: is starting to take hold, But I don't think it

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Speaker 6: changes the move in July from the Fed. They can't

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Speaker 6: take their foot off the pedal yet. There's still three

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Speaker 6: things that they're looking at, and they're not necessarily looking

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Speaker 6: at airline fares. What they're looking at is housing, which owners'

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Speaker 6: equivalent rent is still slightly elevated. They're looking at earnings,

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Speaker 6: which we've just finished talking about how real earnings now

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Speaker 6: are higher. And they're also going to be looking at

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Speaker 6: the service sector. So those three things they are improving.

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Speaker 6: You can't deny that in the report today. But I

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Speaker 6: just don't think it's enough for the Fed to say

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Speaker 6: we're completely done.

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Speaker 3: Do you think, though, that there is a greater likelihood

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Speaker 3: as a result of this report, that this raid hike

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Speaker 3: at this month's meeting will be the last.

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Speaker 5: If this is the trend that continues.

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Speaker 6: Yes, Let's keep in mind there's a lot of base

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Speaker 6: effects in this report, so we don't want to take

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Speaker 6: one month as a trend. But if this continues, I

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Speaker 6: think this may be the last. But I don't think

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Speaker 6: they're going to be cutting, And that's something that we've

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Speaker 6: been saying for a long time. The market is too

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Speaker 6: optimistic about the path and the timing of rate cuts.

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Speaker 6: We think they're going to stay higher for longer. They've

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Speaker 6: told us that, and they can afford, especially with the

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Speaker 6: consumers still wanting to spend to take their foot off

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Speaker 6: the gas here.

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Speaker 3: That said, how does this shift your view on how

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Speaker 3: to allocate your assets at a time when a lot

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Speaker 3: of people are betting that the economy can remain strong

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Speaker 3: even as we continue to see price stability restored to

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Speaker 3: the market.

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Speaker 6: So we've been taking the opportunity this year with the

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Speaker 6: big rally we've seen across the global equity sector, to

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Speaker 6: start to reduce some of the allocation. We want to

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Speaker 6: get more to a neutral waiting to our benchmark, because

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Speaker 6: we're not while we're looking at a period where the

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Speaker 6: Fed may be near the end of their aggressive tightening cycle,

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Speaker 6: we're not calling for cuts. There is still, as we said,

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Speaker 6: there is still some inflation in the pipeline that.

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Speaker 5: They have to get under control.

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Speaker 6: Our bigger concern is that the market's got a little

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Speaker 6: too optimistic about the economy. We continue to see in

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Speaker 6: a lot of these reports underneath of the details that

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Speaker 6: there is significant weakness in the economy and especially the consumer.

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Speaker 6: We've talked about this before, the FED tightening cycle as

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Speaker 6: well as now tightening lending conditions. This takes time to

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Speaker 6: work into the economy. We haven't seen those full effects.

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Speaker 5: The labor markets now starting to show signs of weakness.

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Speaker 5: This is all negative for the consumer.

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Speaker 6: So we're concerned about the consumer in the second half

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Speaker 6: of this year despite some of this positive inflation report,

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Speaker 6: because we just don't see the spending that we saw

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Speaker 6: on the first part of this year sustainable.

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Speaker 1: So to cut to the Chase Magan, I think this

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Speaker 1: is really important. A tep of economy just simply means

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Speaker 1: less revenue for corporations, and that's where the earning shortfall begins.

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Speaker 6: Right, And this is you know, we're getting ready to

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Speaker 6: start this earning season here in the second quarter. This

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Speaker 6: is the first the it's expected to be the worst

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Speaker 6: earning season that we've seen since the pandemic. And we

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Speaker 6: don't really think that this is completely over from an

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Speaker 6: earning's perspective, I.

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Speaker 1: Look Megan the step forward here, and I get that

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Speaker 1: this is one report. Lisa's told me that three times today.

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Speaker 1: Maybe you take a smooth three month moving average of disinflation.

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Speaker 1: Did the disinflation vector change enough for you to have

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Speaker 1: to sit down and recalibrate getting to the third quarter?

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Speaker 5: No, not yet. I still think, like I mentioned, there's

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Speaker 5: three things.

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Speaker 6: That's what the Fed's looking at, and they have gotten

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Speaker 6: slightly better. But even if you look at the owner's

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Speaker 6: equivalent rent component that was running a five tents on

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Speaker 6: a month of a month basis, Oh, it's slipped to

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Speaker 6: four tenths. Is that enough for the FED? I don't

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Speaker 6: think so. I still think that's a concern for the FED.

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Speaker 6: So I'm not ready to make any changes. We're sitting

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Speaker 6: neutral with our equity exposure. We have a nice cash

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Speaker 6: position because we are earning now on that, and we're

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Speaker 6: looking for the potential that we could see some weakness

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Speaker 6: of the equities in the second half this year.

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Speaker 3: I gotta say, Tom, I'm looking at Bespoke Investment. They

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Speaker 3: put out a report saying that at the headline level,

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Speaker 3: there have only been two stronger than expected CPI readings

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Speaker 3: in the last year, which is the fewest and twelve

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Speaker 3: month period going back to November twenty nineteen on a

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Speaker 3: core basis just three stronger than expected monthly CPI readings

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Speaker 3: that has been the fewest since November twenty twenty. There

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Speaker 3: is a sense that Wall Street doesn't have as much

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Speaker 3: faith in the disinflation as is actually coming through in

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Speaker 3: the number.

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Speaker 1: This is really well timed that you bring this up,

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Speaker 1: because doctor Dudley alluded to that when he did as

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Speaker 1: Newtonian calculus in English, where we talk about the first derivative,

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Speaker 1: the second derivative, you'd make jokes if you're particular, if

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Speaker 1: you had a hangover from course three to light, you'd

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Speaker 1: make a joke about the third derivative or the fourth derivative.

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Speaker 1: But all of this anecdotal evidence leads to some form

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Speaker 1: of vectors which say the agony of this inflation is over.

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Speaker 1: Then the debate begins.

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Speaker 3: From an investment perspective, Megan, is it time to get

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Speaker 3: out of CA maybe not go into risk your assets,

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Speaker 3: but lock in yields.

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Speaker 5: At a higher level data.

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Speaker 3: Kelly, if we are seeing inflation come in.

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Speaker 6: And we actually started to do that, recently as well,

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Speaker 6: we moved our duration of our fixed income investments out

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Speaker 6: a little bit, not significantly long at this point, because

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Speaker 6: I still do think there is that uncertainty around the FED. Yes,

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Speaker 6: it looks like they may be able to be done

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Speaker 6: in June, I mean in July, but when it comes

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Speaker 6: to ray cuts, when are they really coming in? And

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Speaker 6: we don't think that's the story until twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 6: So it's not a rush to run into the long

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Speaker 6: term yields at this point, but we do think you

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Speaker 6: should move out some of those shorter durations into more

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Speaker 6: of an intermediate intermediate duration.

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Speaker 1: Megan, Thank you so much. Meghan Hartman with Verdant's Capital Advisors.

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Speaker 1: Right now we have a Darta moment. Michael Darta joins

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Speaker 1: us MKM Partners and the chief economists is also disinflation

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Speaker 1: strategist for Roth MK Partners. Michael, data is disinflation in place.

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Speaker 7: Hi, Tom, thanks for having me. It certainly is in place.

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Speaker 7: So maybe these numbers came as a bit of a

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Speaker 7: surprise to some, but frankly, if you've been tracking the macroeconomy,

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Speaker 7: what we're seeing is a rapid deceleration in nominal GDP growth.

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Speaker 7: Aggregate demand. In fact, we've got some numbers on same

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Speaker 7: store sales going into July that are comping negative now,

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Speaker 7: so nominal growth momentum has really hit a wall here.

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Speaker 7: And if you just look at an indicator like the

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Speaker 7: ISM Manufacturing Index, their prices paid component has just collapsed

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Speaker 7: and that leads the headline CPI by four to six months.

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Speaker 7: So you know, this rapid rollover that we're seeing in

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Speaker 7: flexible price inflation shouldn't be a big surprise. And we've

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Speaker 7: got a good number on core today. You know, those

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Speaker 7: numbers tend to be stickier because they're tied to contracts

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Speaker 7: and leases, so they tend to lag the business cycle.

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Speaker 7: But the market, you know, is certainly being lifted on

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Speaker 7: a sentiment basis from that.

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Speaker 8: So how do you think our Federal Reserve kind of

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Speaker 8: takes in this print we're going to get some PPI

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Speaker 8: tomorrow as it relates to kind of where they want

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Speaker 8: to go over the next several meetings.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think this is a case of you know,

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Speaker 7: once bit and twice shy, So they obviously didn't have

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Speaker 7: the correct inflation forecast coming into the cyclical upswing, and

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Speaker 7: I think they've already tightened enough to put the economy

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Speaker 7: into a eventual recession. And so you know, the equity

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Speaker 7: market is acting like a soft landing is at hand,

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Speaker 7: and most commentators on your network and others are, you know,

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Speaker 7: seemingly falling into that camp. Yet historically, if you take

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Speaker 7: a look back at the data, you don't get soft landings.

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Speaker 7: When the FED raises rates, inverts, the yield curve collapses,

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Speaker 7: money growth presides over a drastic in sustained tightening in

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Speaker 7: lending standards and focuses on backward looking information. And that's

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Speaker 7: exactly where we are now. Equity markets, you know, I mean,

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Speaker 7: they can defy gravity for a while. We've had a

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Speaker 7: heck of a rally this year that few people have predicted,

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Speaker 7: Present Company included. But the equity market is up on

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Speaker 7: a zero earnings growth. This is an entire entirely driven

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Speaker 7: by valuations and long term interest rates really haven't come

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Speaker 7: down if you go back to the October lows of

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Speaker 7: last year, no earnings growth, about a flat ten year

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Speaker 7: treasury yield and a four point multiple expansion. I mean,

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Speaker 7: you know, I think investors do themselves a disservice if

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Speaker 7: they are going to chase a market that's been propped

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Speaker 7: up in that fashion.

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Speaker 8: Michael Darta earning season kicking off in Earnest Friday with

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Speaker 8: some of the big banks. What are you looking for

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Speaker 8: from this earnings cycle?

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Speaker 7: Well, you know, we've already got a earnings recession well underway,

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Speaker 7: so we have three quarters now we're the SMP operating

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Speaker 7: earnings have fallen. There's a huge and growing divergence between

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Speaker 7: the GDP based NIPPA profits that cover all US corporations

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Speaker 7: and SMP operating earnings. That's been a late cycle recession

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Speaker 7: bear market flag in the past. And then I mentioned

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Speaker 7: the nominal growth momentum fading on the back of tighter

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Speaker 7: monetary policy. If top line growth is weakening or especially

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Speaker 7: contracting relative to slower moving cost variables on the wage side,

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Speaker 7: that is a setup for a margin squeeze. So I

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Speaker 7: think we're going to have difficulty going forward. And then

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Speaker 7: we have to ask ourselves why is this equity market

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Speaker 7: performing the way it is. It is simply pricing in

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Speaker 7: a huge turnaround in earnings. Do the forward indicators tell

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Speaker 7: you that there's no there there? And then eventually I

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Speaker 7: think we're looking at lower equity prices.

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Speaker 5: Michael.

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Speaker 8: So if you look at the SMP earnings for twenty

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Speaker 8: twenty three about two hundred and twenty dollars per share.

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Speaker 8: A lot of folks will come in to the studio

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Speaker 8: and say, hey, that number could be even closer to

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Speaker 8: two hundred dollars, maybe even south of two hundred dollars.

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Speaker 8: How much earnings risk do you think is still left

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Speaker 8: in this market?

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Speaker 7: Yeah? I think there is considerable risk. You know, you're

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Speaker 7: running the mill. Recession is going to put forward estimates,

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Speaker 7: you know, down at least fifteen or twenty percent, and

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Speaker 7: then you know the actual trailing operating earnings typically fall

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Speaker 7: more than that, and you've got this big divergence between

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Speaker 7: the economy wide profits now in S and P operating earnings.

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Speaker 7: None of that adds up to a highly confident full

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Speaker 7: run or risk assets in my opinion. So you know

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Speaker 7: this is you know, I can understand why people are

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Speaker 7: getting more optimistic, because you know, everyone tends to get

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Speaker 7: whipped around by the market. The market has done well

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Speaker 7: this year, but I think we need to take a

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Speaker 7: step back and look at this in a sober fashion.

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Speaker 1: Unfair question, but I'll conflate the two DARTERA would give

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Speaker 1: me a C minus on this can we say that

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Speaker 1: we're going to get a constrained near four percent nominal

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Speaker 1: GDP and at the same time, does that reaffirm John

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Speaker 1: William's quest for a low our start.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, Tom, we're actually already there. So the last time

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Speaker 7: the three of us talked, we were talking about gross

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Speaker 7: domestic income and nominal GDP, and the divergence is there,

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Speaker 7: but if you sum that, you know, if you average

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Speaker 7: the two rather, we were actually already there. Over the

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Speaker 7: last two quarters for which we have data, were just

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Speaker 7: below four percent on the average of nominal GDP and

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Speaker 7: nominal gross domestic income. And prior to that, the recovery

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Speaker 7: average was thirteen percent annualized. So we were in this

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Speaker 7: booming nominal activity environment on the back of very easy

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Speaker 7: monetary policy. Policy has been tightening rapidly and nominal aggregate

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Speaker 7: demand is weakening, and so in that environment, you know,

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Speaker 7: the neutral interest rate is not going to be consistent

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Speaker 7: with a thirteen percent nominal top line number. You know,

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Speaker 7: it's going to be much lower. If we're trending around

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Speaker 7: four and I don't see any pickup, and you know,

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Speaker 7: we're talking about structural stuff. Really that means supply side.

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Speaker 7: So what is the trend in nonfarm productivity, it's actually

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Speaker 7: zero growth since the recovery started. We obviously didn't have

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Speaker 7: a baby boom, at least that I'm aware of, and

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Speaker 7: so there's you know, there's no improvement in terms of

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Speaker 7: working age population growth. So I don't really understand the

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Speaker 7: story here that the neutral interest rate is going to

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Speaker 7: be higher over the long term in a cyclical sense. Yes,

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Speaker 7: if you have a boom, then the neutral rate is higher.

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Speaker 7: But you know, again, if there's some long term structural shift,

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Speaker 7: why is the yield curve upside down? Why is money

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Speaker 7: supply collapsing? Why is bank credit collapsing? You know, those

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Speaker 7: questions are just unanswered by some that are making, in

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Speaker 7: my opinion, not very well thought out arguments.

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Speaker 1: Michael Darta, thank you so much. With ross MM partners.

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