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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go throwing into we're sitting up

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Speaker 1: to cash. We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to win. That's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, It's just the ultimate kaba and we are

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Speaker 3: coming away.

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Speaker 1: What is up everybody?

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Speaker 4: This is the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel, and

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Speaker 4: it's your Week three NFL betting preview. I am your host,

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Speaker 4: Chris Raybond, and today we're gonna be talking about all

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Speaker 4: of our favorite totals, teasers, underdogs, and of course we're

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Speaker 4: gonna build our weekly Sunday six pack of against the

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Speaker 4: spread bets with the help of my co host, the

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Speaker 4: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 1: Let's go good.

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Speaker 2: Week two kept the momentum going. Think I wout nine

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Speaker 2: to two, actually nine and three. I lost a small

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Speaker 2: bed on a middle. I try to middle with Washington.

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Speaker 2: They missed an extra, so I was pissed there and

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Speaker 2: I had my first side loss of the year. So

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Speaker 2: I'm eleven and one now with the Saints. Because Sean

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Speaker 2: Hockeyley called the worst game in NFL history, He's on

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Speaker 2: pace that called ninety five unnecessary roughness calls this year.

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Speaker 2: The record is by Jeff Triplett twenty two. Just an atrocious,

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Speaker 2: a true sleep officiated game. James Winston obviously blew it.

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Speaker 2: My biggest takeaway for Week two is I went against

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Speaker 2: the grain on a lot of like, all right, this

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Speaker 2: is an overreaction. I kind of just trusted what I

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Speaker 2: thought of some of these teams, like okay, lower on

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Speaker 2: the Rams, I went back to the Falcons since I

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Speaker 2: think Cincinnati's in trouble right now. I didn't say, Okay,

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Speaker 2: they're going to bounce back, and I kind of reacted

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Speaker 2: to what I saw a little bit more. But I

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Speaker 2: don't even think there's that many crazy overreactions to Bessie,

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Speaker 2: but I think we do see some this week. So

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Speaker 2: that's kind of going to be the team of this show.

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Speaker 2: It's usually like the week two of reactions, but I

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Speaker 2: think it's week three overreactions, and I'm excited to get

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Speaker 2: into it and hopefully try to find some winners.

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Speaker 1: Yes, Sir had a good week as well.

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Speaker 4: When eleven and one now twenty three and four since

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Speaker 4: the season started, so I know I'm in for some aggression,

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Speaker 4: but we're gonna try to keep it going on the pod.

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Speaker 4: Be sure to check out our new live show, Action Island,

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Speaker 4: airing every Thursday at five thirty pm Eastern on the

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Speaker 4: Action App, Action YouTube page, Action Network, HQ on Twitter,

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Speaker 4: and presented by our friends at FanDuel. And speaking of Thursday,

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Speaker 4: let's jump right into it Thursday Night Football. We got

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Speaker 4: the Steelers visiting the Cleveland brown.

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Speaker 2: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 3: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 4: Pittsburgh is a four and a half point road underdog

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Speaker 4: at fandel the official sponsor of the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 1: The totals thirty eight and a half of this game.

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Speaker 4: Ugly divisional game. You Davian Clowney out for the Cleveland Browns.

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Speaker 4: Everyone else who was on the injury report looks like

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Speaker 4: they're going to give it a go. Miles Garrett wasn't

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Speaker 4: listed on the final one, and Beatonio Honklin looked like

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Speaker 4: they're going to go as well. Pittsburgh also pretty hellsy healthy.

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Speaker 4: I think Bush was the only one on the injury report.

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Speaker 4: He's going to go, so not too much in the

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Speaker 4: way of injuries outside of clowney, But what do you

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Speaker 4: think of his game? Everyone's pretty down on Mitch Kubisky.

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Speaker 4: Rode on the right side of that one, both of us. Really,

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Speaker 4: I had the under. I didn't give it out of

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Speaker 4: the pod, but if you follow me, the app had

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Speaker 4: the under on that one. So we both kind of

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Speaker 4: profited off Pittsburgh's ineptitude on offense last week. What do

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Speaker 4: you think of them going to Cleveland on a short week? Yeah, well,

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Speaker 4: also t J.

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Speaker 2: Watson playing and Steelers defense, as I talked about last week,

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Speaker 2: falls off a cliff without him. They didn't have a

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Speaker 2: sack last week. That's only happened three times since twenty

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Speaker 2: seventeen with the Steelers. Two of them is when TJ.

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Speaker 2: Watton doesn't play. And if you just look at their

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Speaker 2: EPA per play numbers when he's in on and off

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Speaker 2: the field, it's drastic. And yeah, I mean I could

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Speaker 2: give you a million, a million, literally a million trends

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Speaker 2: that'll back up the under and the Steelers here. I mean,

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Speaker 2: like underdogs eighty nine to fifty five and four against

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Speaker 2: the spread since twenty eighteen with a total of forty

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Speaker 2: two or below. How about Stefanski one and eleven against

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Speaker 2: the spread in the division. That's the least profitable coach

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Speaker 2: over the past thirty years in division. And by the way,

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Speaker 2: Tomlin is twenty six and two twenty six and two

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Speaker 2: as a dog in the division.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to hear about the labor pays man.

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Speaker 4: Deliver the damn baby.

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Speaker 2: And we know how good the Steelers are as an

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Speaker 2: underdog under tomin forty eight, twenty six and four, sixty

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Speaker 2: five percent most profitable coach against the spread as a dog.

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Speaker 1: I like the transparency and the clarity of which we work.

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Speaker 1: It lets me know that we feel like we are

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Speaker 1: capable and we are not scared.

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Speaker 2: I could go on and on and on, like even

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Speaker 2: that Tomlin road unders. You always talk about about sixty

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Speaker 2: percent Thursday night unders with a total between thirty seven

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Speaker 2: and forty past twenty five years eighteen three and one

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Speaker 2: to the under eighty six percent primetime unders have been

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Speaker 2: cruising this year. But that's kind of what I want

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Speaker 2: to talk about. But my handicap of the game is this,

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Speaker 2: I actually would lean the over a little bit the

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Speaker 2: Browns if Garrett wasn't playing the Browns. Secondary's kind of

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Speaker 2: a mess right now. A lot of communication issues. We

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Speaker 2: saw that against Flaco late. I don't know if they're

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Speaker 2: gonna be able to get cleaned up. Meanwhile, I think

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Speaker 2: the Browns will be able to move the ball on

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Speaker 2: the ground, just like I thought those Patriots would last week,

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Speaker 2: because you know, there's no Watt That is the weakness

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Speaker 2: of the Steelers defense is their Runde and Brissett actually

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Speaker 2: played pretty well last week. It was their defense that

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Speaker 2: let them down. So I was actually impressed with how

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Speaker 2: the offense looked and how he threw the ball. But

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Speaker 2: then you're gonna throw in Garrett is playing. Mitch Trubisky

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Speaker 2: aka Mitch Bortles is a quarterback for the Steelers, and

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Speaker 2: there's gonna be twenty to twenty five hour zero wins.

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Speaker 1: Most likely you've just been bortled.

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Speaker 2: I could give you tons of under trends with totals

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Speaker 2: that low as well. I kind of wanted to do

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Speaker 2: a contrarian over here, but I'm probably gonna stay away.

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Speaker 2: This is a really ugly game. There's a lot of

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Speaker 2: trends that tell me Steelers, but I can't. I don't

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Speaker 2: see them like a lot. I went against all the

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Speaker 2: trends with Steelers win total under this year because of

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Speaker 2: their quarterback. You also could get a wrench here. You

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Speaker 2: could get a wrench thrown in from Tomlin that if

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Speaker 2: Trubisky has struggling and you get Picket coming in, I

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Speaker 2: could see that happening. And then you don't have a

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Speaker 2: game plan for him that you haven't seen him.

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Speaker 1: Win this game, bro win this game straight up.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and then with the win, you don't know if

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Speaker 2: it's turnovers or there. It's gonna be a lot of arrans.

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Speaker 2: But generally it obviously does help the under. But I

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Speaker 2: want to talk about before I get your thoughts, the

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Speaker 2: game scoring in general, it's way down this year. Average

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Speaker 2: forty points. Unders are twenty two and ten, most profitable

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Speaker 2: understart to the year since nineteen ninety six. But if

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Speaker 2: you go back and look twenty nineteen average points scored

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Speaker 2: for the whole season forty five, same as last year

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Speaker 2: forty five the first two weeks of twenty nineteen, the

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Speaker 2: average scoring forty points over the first two weeks. In

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Speaker 2: week two unders went thirteen and three. In twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 2: average points scored in week three forty eight, overs ten

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Speaker 2: and six. So again, just don't overreact. I want to

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Speaker 2: get your thoughts on why because a legal contact is up.

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Speaker 2: There's been sixteen flags with lego contact AREATY. There's only

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Speaker 2: thirty six all of last year in eighteen weeks. But

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Speaker 2: I do think that there's this carry of effective a

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Speaker 2: limited preseason. No one's playing in the preseason. I think

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Speaker 2: there's defenses that are really focusing on taking away explosive

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Speaker 2: plays too. And then there's a lot of noise in

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Speaker 2: any two week sample size. You can't overreact, so I

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Speaker 2: wouldn't be shocked if we see scoring go way up.

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Speaker 2: I think a lot of the totals are suppressed. I'm

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Speaker 2: still hesitant on totals just because maybe you know there's

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Speaker 2: something that I'm not seeing. I'm still waiting on penalty data.

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Speaker 2: But I do think that the totals are coming down

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Speaker 2: a little bit too far. But if I had to

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Speaker 2: bet this, I would take the points and I would

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Speaker 2: bet the under, just because it's everything that I know

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Speaker 2: in this game, in this spot. But it's hard for

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Speaker 2: me to see how the Steelers are going to move

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Speaker 2: the ball. Their offensive line is so bad, and you're

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Speaker 2: asking Mitch Bortles to throw in twenty twenty five now

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Speaker 2: and wins Brown's run game it's just so much more trustworthy,

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Speaker 2: which is huge in these conditions. So looks like a

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Speaker 2: pass to me.

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Speaker 1: Just the overall league trends.

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Speaker 4: I have noticed that as well, because you know, I

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Speaker 4: do the fantasy projections that I'm projecting every player's stats

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Speaker 4: as well. And I noticed that my average passing yardage

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Speaker 4: per team for quarterbacks is under two forty for this week.

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Speaker 4: And I think it's kind of, like you said, a

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Speaker 4: combination of a few things. I think one of the

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Speaker 4: things it is is just you have these situations with

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Speaker 4: normally reliable quarterbacks who.

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Speaker 1: Just aren't for a variety of reasons.

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Speaker 4: Dak Prescott, hurt, Tom Brady, they have no receivers, so

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Speaker 4: they're not throwing the ball at a high rate like

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Speaker 4: they were in these last couple of years.

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers in the new system, right, and you.

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Speaker 4: Got the Seahawk starting a backup, we got the Steelers

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Speaker 4: starting a backup, the Texans starting a backup, Brown starting

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Speaker 4: a backup. We could argue that the Falcons are though

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Speaker 4: I like Mariota, they're just more of those situations than not,

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Speaker 4: which are kind of negatively affecting offense. I think that's

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Speaker 4: really the answer. More so than any particular weak trends.

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Speaker 4: As far as penalty, I'm always watching that stuff too,

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Speaker 4: because I do base you know, the projections on some

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Speaker 4: form of a week average, which you know is dynamic,

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Speaker 4: but I think it's more that than anything. And that

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Speaker 4: is why, yeah, I don't I don't really like any

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Speaker 4: totals this week. We'll talk about that on the segment.

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Speaker 4: But as far as the game, I did take the Steelers.

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Speaker 4: I thought the line was going to go the other way.

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Speaker 4: I didn't think it was going to get hammered by

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Speaker 4: Brown's money. But you know, I took it at three

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Speaker 4: and a half. I just wanted the hook, kind of

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Speaker 4: similar to you and the Chargers last week, and then

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Speaker 4: it still kept moving. Now it's at four and a half. Listen,

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Speaker 4: I look at these two teams. You got Jacoby Brissett

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Speaker 4: on one side and Mitch Drubisky on the other. Like,

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Speaker 4: I don't make a big difference between those two quarterbacks.

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Speaker 4: And we know what tom Win does in these kind

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Speaker 4: of spots. You said it last week. Last week was

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Speaker 4: not a Tomlin spot, and and they had a letdown game.

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Speaker 4: Now you know they were able to kind of stew

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Speaker 4: on it and get over it. Quick now's in the

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Speaker 4: same boat. But like you said, stefanskis won an eleven

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Speaker 4: in the division. I wouldn't surprise me at all Pittsburgh

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Speaker 4: wins this game.

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Speaker 2: This is your classic ugly Thursday night football.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's jump in two the week three Sunday

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Speaker 1: six pack Thursday for action.

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Speaker 4: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack. For those that

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Speaker 4: are new to the show, stuck an eye give our

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Speaker 4: six top picks of the week, three each.

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Speaker 1: We can be on opposite side. We can't pick the

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Speaker 1: same one.

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Speaker 4: Our first two are two points each, our third is

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Speaker 4: a point, and we tale him up at the end.

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Speaker 4: We also do a point for our totals, although we'll

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Speaker 4: talk about that in the total segment for this week.

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Speaker 1: But it's all tied ten ten.

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Speaker 4: We're doing really good on a six pack and we're

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Speaker 4: also fifty on money line dogs this year. So another

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Speaker 4: good start to the podcast.

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Speaker 2: Uh, we had a big one last week.

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Speaker 4: I forgot Yeah, so hopefully everyone out there listening has

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Speaker 4: been able to Uh.

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Speaker 2: Who plain Jags and Cowboys?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it was Cowboys. So you're you're two for two

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Speaker 4: moneyline dogs. I'll start us off with my first pick.

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Speaker 4: First overall of the week three Sunday six pack. I

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Speaker 4: am going with the Indianapolis Colts plus five and a

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Speaker 4: half now at fan duel against the Kansas.

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Speaker 1: City Chiefs and a half.

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Speaker 4: Now, yeah, first, let me say this, if you can

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Speaker 4: buy buy up to the six would buy it to

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Speaker 4: minus one twenty. This is the spot that you want

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Speaker 4: the Coats like we were on fading them last week

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Speaker 4: against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Horrible spot for them. Everyone was hurt,

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Speaker 4: which made it I think that line got down to three.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 4: But now this is the Coats you know, home opener

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Speaker 4: first of all, So we haven't even seen them play

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Speaker 4: at home. And I think that's significant because you talked

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Speaker 4: about overreaction week and I think that, yes, the Coats

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Speaker 4: have obviously shipped the bed, let's not make any bones

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Speaker 4: about it.

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Speaker 1: But we know.

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Speaker 4: Teams play better at home, and we have not seen them,

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Speaker 4: you know, in their own environment yet, and so I

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Speaker 4: think we're still or the general public is still getting

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Speaker 4: a little too down on the Coats, and I think

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Speaker 4: that's why that line was at seven until probably a

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Speaker 4: few hours ago, or you know, at most, because it's

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Speaker 4: dropping pretty quick now as we record this on Wednesday night.

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Speaker 4: But you look at the Coats, they're getting Pittman back

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Speaker 4: and Pierced back, so they should have more receivers this week.

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Speaker 1: Both of them are turned to practice Wednesday.

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Speaker 4: Then you look at the kind of natural human element

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Speaker 4: of this game mentioned the home opener already.

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Speaker 1: Shouldn't we Yeah, yeah, I mean I don't trust he's

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Speaker 1: I don't trust that he's a real person.

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Speaker 4: He's like a Doric Jackson a couple of years ago.

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Speaker 4: It's like, until he actually says fit on a field,

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Speaker 4: I'm just he's ruled out.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, he plays. That's great as well.

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Speaker 4: But look at Week three historically win with home teams

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Speaker 4: entering Week three facing a visiting team with at least

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Speaker 4: one win thirty one nineteen and two against the spread,

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Speaker 4: that is sixty two percent. Then you have Week three

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Speaker 4: underdogs with at least one against the spread laws so

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Speaker 4: they're not underfeated against the spread, which obviously the Colts

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Speaker 4: are owned two uh that opened under a touchdown eighty

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Speaker 4: nine fifty four and two sixty four percent. And more importantly,

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Speaker 4: and this is where you come to overreactions, not even

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Speaker 4: specifically the Week three but just in general underdogs coming

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Speaker 4: off a game in which they were shut out, owing

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Speaker 4: up against the favorite the next week, as long as

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Speaker 4: the fair's not coming off of buye forty one twenty

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Speaker 4: one and three sixty six percent against the spread since five,

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Speaker 4: beating the spread by nearly three points per game. And

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Speaker 4: then you look at the you know a lot of

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Speaker 4: people are going to say, oh, well, it's Andy Reid.

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Speaker 4: He's got actually trying to prepare. They had a Thursday

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Speaker 4: game that actually does not hold up in this spot.

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Speaker 4: Seven and ten against the spread are nine to thirteen

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Speaker 4: days of rest. Five and seven specifically on exactly ten

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Speaker 4: days of rest, which this is Thursday night game to

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Speaker 4: a Sunday and failing to cover the spread by an

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Speaker 4: average of two point four points per game. So whatever

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Speaker 4: you thought about that narrative, because I've seen it kind

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Speaker 4: of floated, you know, and you know, I read various

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Speaker 4: PIX articles and just you know, things in the media.

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Speaker 4: I've seen that that floated, that narrative. That just get

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Speaker 4: that out of the head. That's not really something that

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Speaker 4: happens in this kind of spot. But I do think

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Speaker 4: it's interesting that the Colts catching more than a field

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Speaker 4: goal under Frank Reich nine three and one against the spreads.

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Speaker 4: So this is generally the spot you want to target

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Speaker 4: the coats like we kind of have the coats, you know,

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Speaker 4: a handle on the coats. You want to Fati against

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Speaker 4: Jacksonville and you want a back though when everyone gets

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Speaker 4: really down on him and one of those covers from

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Speaker 4: right getting more than a field goal was an outright

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Speaker 4: upset of the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead as a

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Speaker 4: double digit underdog. They came in there, they got after

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Speaker 4: Mahomes and they ended up winning that game. And in

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Speaker 4: this one, you look at the Chiefs, I didn't. I'm

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Speaker 4: not that impressed by the Chiefs this year. They played

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Speaker 4: Arizona with no defense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, all the backup scenarios.

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Speaker 4: It was a yeah, glorified scrimmage. Okay too, they get

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Speaker 4: gifted to win by by Gerald Everett. Okay, fine, But

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Speaker 4: you look at that offense without Tyreek Hill, and I

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Speaker 4: still think some of the concerns that we had about

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Speaker 4: it are legitimate, Like without that, just the threat of

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Speaker 4: the deep ball, you know, Mahomes is having to work

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Speaker 4: a lot more for any type of explosive play. You know,

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Speaker 4: guys just aren't breaking open as quickly like Mahomes has

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Speaker 4: taking some sacks at certain times where it's just like

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Speaker 4: it's those Aaron Rodgers sacks from week one. It's just

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Speaker 4: like no one's open. You know, the Playo Watson was

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Speaker 4: a great play by Mahomes. He's gonna make some of those.

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Speaker 4: But I think that's some important because remember this is

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Speaker 4: still a Gus Brawley defense.

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Speaker 1: And this is why this is always gonna be a

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Speaker 1: hold your nose pick.

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Speaker 4: Because Gus Bradley at one point it seemed like he

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Speaker 4: had the blueprint against Mahomes when he was with the Chargers,

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Speaker 4: and then he goes to the Raiders and you know,

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Speaker 4: I guess the personnel isn't as good, and I mean,

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Speaker 4: Mahomes just ate them up last year into two games.

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Speaker 4: But now if Gus Bradley's is gonna be stubborn and

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Speaker 4: still play his single high, well, you don't have Tyreek kill,

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Speaker 4: so you don't have that same threat against you know,

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Speaker 4: you're not Taylor made as an offense to beat this

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Speaker 4: defense anymore. Now your offense is tailor made to beat

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Speaker 4: the two high shows, you know, and it's not that

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Speaker 4: they're having a ton of success or going to have

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Speaker 4: a time.

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Speaker 1: Since's doing that at all times.

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Speaker 4: But I think that's an important distinction as well, because

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Speaker 4: that's another narrative I've seen kind of floated out there,

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Speaker 4: is that, well, you know they're going up against this

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Speaker 4: Gus Brawley defense is over.

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Speaker 1: And I don't think that's exactly the case.

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Speaker 4: I think you're gonna get a just a massive effort

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Speaker 4: from the coach in their home stadium. I think you're

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Speaker 4: gonna get They're gonna get after Mahomes. I think you're

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Speaker 4: gonna see them punch the Chiefs in the mouth. That

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Speaker 4: Jonathan Tanley.

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Speaker 1: You know the Chiefs.

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Speaker 4: They faced the Cardinals and then they faced you know,

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Speaker 4: the Chargers. Even though Eckwer is great, they don't really

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Speaker 4: have a power running game either. So I mean, I

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Speaker 4: think this is just it sounds kind of cliche, but

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Speaker 4: I think this is going to be a game where

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs get I mean the Coats, get real physical,

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Speaker 4: punch them in the mouth, play desperate football, get the crowd.

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Speaker 1: Going early, and stay in this game.

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Speaker 4: And wouldn't even be surprised to see them pull off

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Speaker 4: a victory in this spot because that's the NFL, and

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Speaker 4: the teams are down on the most one week, are

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Speaker 4: going to surprise you the next week, So give me

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Speaker 4: the coats plus five and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this would have gone number one. I was pissed

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Speaker 2: when you took it vintage spot. I took seven when

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Speaker 2: it popped out there as well. If you're at five

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Speaker 2: and a half now wait, oh, world will be on

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs here. But yeah, overaction week. Teams are never

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Speaker 2: as bad as they look, plus the culture getting they're two.

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Speaker 2: They've been playing without receivers and playing with their best

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Speaker 2: defensive player. Maybe yeah, finally receivers come back to play

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs. She's played the Cardinals without all their receivers

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Speaker 2: and entire defense, say by the Chargers without Keenan Allen.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean the Chiefs were I was thoroughly

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Speaker 2: unimpressed with the Chiefs. You can't even look at their

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Speaker 2: numbers and tell without watching that game how bad they were.

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Speaker 2: Mahomes Thros two picks that are dropped wide open drops

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Speaker 2: and thew mahomes thres two other picks that were called

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Speaker 2: back on brutal that well, one was offensive pass interference

388
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,399
Speaker 2: and he just threw up a duck, so yeah, he

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Speaker 2: looked awful. Teams have started out zho and two straight

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Speaker 2: up and against the spread, by the way, forty five

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Speaker 2: and twenty eight against the spread since two thousand and three,

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Speaker 2: that's sixty two percent. And how about home dogs catching

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Speaker 2: seven plus coming home in Week three, so they were

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Speaker 2: on the road after an oh and two start, It's

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Speaker 2: only happened four times. They're four to zero against the spread.

396
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Speaker 2: All four teams should have won outright catching a touchdown

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Speaker 2: or more. Team's offer shutout loss as three point plus

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Speaker 2: underdogs in non division games fifty one, fourteen and three

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Speaker 2: seventy eight percent since nineteen ninety fifty one to fourteen

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Speaker 2: and three office shutout catching three plus, you don't ever react.

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Speaker 2: The look at was just three three and a half,

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Speaker 2: and now you were getting up to five and s

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Speaker 2: six in a classic spot. This is as close to

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Speaker 2: the must one as you can get. So, by the way,

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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes is not the guy you want to be

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Speaker 2: backing as a seven plus point favorite. Fifteen and one

407
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Speaker 2: against the spread as a favor of seven plus, So

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm building the case for years. It's because

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Speaker 2: you can tell I want to mind that number one.

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Speaker 2: But for my first pick and the second overall of

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Speaker 2: the week three, Sunday six pack brought to you by

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Speaker 2: Fan Duel. I am going with the at Atlanta Falcons

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Speaker 2: plus one and a half at the Seattle Seahawks. This look,

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Speaker 2: we're going back to the Wealth of Falcons again for

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Speaker 2: the third straight time. They're two and zero against the spread,

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Speaker 2: but the row and two, So I still think you

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Speaker 2: get a really good effort here. And I still thin

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Speaker 2: they're being undervalued by the market. And I think the

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Speaker 2: Seahawks are the worst team in the NFL besides the Texans.

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Speaker 2: From a roster standpoint, team is nothing. And I think

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Speaker 2: people still have that game against Denver in their mind

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Speaker 2: from week one when the crowd was going crazy Russell

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Speaker 2: but Denver all kinds of problems we've seen the first

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Speaker 2: two weeks, and they moved the ball I will, I mean,

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Speaker 2: go look at that box s. Denver just kept turning.

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Speaker 2: They couldn't get it at the one yardland. Denver should

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Speaker 2: have won that game by twenty if they had a brain.

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Speaker 2: You know, last week Seattle gets absolutely destroyed by San Francisco.

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Speaker 2: They can't do anything but complete two yard passes. They

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Speaker 2: can't run the ball right now, That's how you have

431
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Speaker 2: to attack this Falcons defense. Falcons strong at the corner positions.

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Speaker 2: That's great here against Seattle, and the Seattle defense is

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Speaker 2: just void of talent. They're so young. In the secondary.

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Speaker 2: Jamal Adams is no longer there. He was kind of

435
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 2: the piece that you wanted in the box for this

436
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 2: new defense that they don't have now. And this Falcons

437
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 2: offense is just underrated from a talent perspective. The offensive

438
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,400
Speaker 2: line is a little questionable, but that's where Mariota's mobility

439
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,680
Speaker 2: comes into play. And this isn't a defensive line that's

440
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 2: going to get a ton of pressure, maybe one of

441
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 2: the worst in the NFL, if not the worst. So

442
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:10,680
Speaker 2: I think Mariota will have time to make plays with

443
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:15,480
Speaker 2: not only his legs, but with some plus matchups that

444
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:18,640
Speaker 2: Atlanta will have on the outside. And I just don't

445
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:22,920
Speaker 2: trust Gino Smith and these receivers to beat the Atlanta

446
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 2: secondary enough to get this done. I talked about this

447
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 2: all year. I think the dnp's defense will be underrated

448
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:32,440
Speaker 2: all year. It usually is. In year two, we're changing

449
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 2: a culture around his daig going place. I think the

450
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:39,159
Speaker 2: Falcons go into Seattle pick up this outright win. I

451
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 2: think they're undervalued. I think the Seahawks are just dreadful,

452
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 2: and I'll take the one and a half points on

453
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:46,000
Speaker 2: the road.

454
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:48,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's a couple of games like this this week

455
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 4: where it's just two bad teams square enough, and I

456
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 4: just don't think people know what to do with these games.

457
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:56,159
Speaker 1: But yeah, I take the points here. I mean, the

458
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 1: best thing to have golf for them is the twelve,

459
00:21:58,680 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 1: you know, in this matchup.

460
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 4: I think that's really the only difference at this point,

461
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,159
Speaker 4: and that's why there's a point and a half of

462
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:10,400
Speaker 4: spread between them at all, because really outside of that, yeah,

463
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 4: I agree, I think I think the Falcons have an

464
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 4: edge at quarterback. I think the Falcons have an edge

465
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,119
Speaker 4: on defense, even though they're a bad defense, you know,

466
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 4: looking even at the skill positions, you know, because you

467
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 4: could always.

468
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 1: Point to metcalf Lockett, who had a great game by

469
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 1: the way last game.

470
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 4: But now I have the Falcons are getting Drake London

471
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 4: into if they still haven't unleash Kyle Pitts, and they're

472
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 4: getting Cordell Patterson. You know, they're using him creatively as well,

473
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,720
Speaker 4: so you know, there's just not a lot differentiating the

474
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 4: two teams. Really, I'm all in favor of taking the

475
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,560
Speaker 4: points with the Atlanta Falcons. Here, I do want to

476
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,719
Speaker 4: take a second for a quick announcement to any listeners

477
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 4: who use the Action App. Thanks to our new partnership

478
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,639
Speaker 4: with FanDuel, we've got a new technology update for all

479
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,200
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480
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481
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 4: and you're in the Action app looking for the best lines.

482
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 4: You can use quick slip to go directly to FanDuel

483
00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 4: with that same pick in a bet Slip to go.

484
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,320
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485
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:07,200
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486
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:08,479
Speaker 2: All right.

487
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 4: For my second pick and the third overall of the

488
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 4: week three Sunday six pack presented by FanDuel.

489
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 1: I am going with.

490
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:24,959
Speaker 4: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus one and a half against

491
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 4: the Green Bay Packers. And this is one of my

492
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 4: favorite spots to take the Buccaneers and everything. It's kind

493
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:33,880
Speaker 4: of a weird Bilo spot on the Bucks, even though

494
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 4: they win and won and covered against their nemesis, the Saints.

495
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 4: Finally unfortunately for the six pack last week, but I

496
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,400
Speaker 4: guess great for Tampa Bay, but you know, Green Bay

497
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:48,199
Speaker 4: handled their business against Chicago uncomfortably cover the spread.

498
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 1: They got a couple of players back. Was ourd score

499
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 1: a touchdown.

500
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,439
Speaker 4: Elton Jenkins got mentioned like twenty times by Chris Collinsworth.

501
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 4: So everyone's like, Okay, the Packers are back. The Bucks

502
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 4: are completely banged up. Oh my god, easy grab the

503
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 4: dog here, this is spot to grab the Packers.

504
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: Nah.

505
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,399
Speaker 4: Looking at the Packers team and what they're going through

506
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:11,120
Speaker 4: right now, A right, you got it's the same offense.

507
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,639
Speaker 4: You got a Hall of Fame quarterback. The Bucks with

508
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 4: no receivers are the Packers Like, it's the same thing.

509
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 1: It's the Packers'.

510
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 4: Receivers, Wizard and all these guys. Maybe they'll turn into something.

511
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,640
Speaker 1: You know, Dobs. I like Dobs. I think Watson has potential.

512
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 4: But right now, the Packers receivers are essentially you know,

513
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 4: the Bucks receivers banked up, hall of Fame quarterback, good

514
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 4: enough offensive line, and good running back. That's so the

515
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 4: offensives are saying the edge in this matchup. The reason

516
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 4: I'm taking the Bucks is because they have ways to

517
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 4: mess up Aaron Rodgers on defense number one. If they want,

518
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 4: they're gonna be able to get pressure without having to

519
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:52,919
Speaker 4: send a ton of extra rushers.

520
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 1: That's something that's always key.

521
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:56,360
Speaker 4: And then not only that, but they're able to cover

522
00:24:56,480 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 4: on the back end. You have Jamel Dean allowing a

523
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 4: passer rating of thirteen this season. That's worse than just

524
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,440
Speaker 4: if a quarterback threw the ball into the dirt every

525
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 4: single play.

526
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 1: Shout out to Jaguar Gator nine.

527
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 4: If you watch his stuff on YouTube, his love his videos,

528
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 4: but he always brings that up that. Yeah, that's worse

529
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 4: than that. Probably the best iteration of the Bucks defense

530
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 4: that they've had in this time. They're mostly healthy. A

531
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 4: cheam Hicks is out, but that's about it. And then

532
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 4: you look at Rodgers. Okay, he played Tampa Bay twice

533
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,439
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty Week six, sixteen to thirty five, one

534
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:32,959
Speaker 4: hundred and sixty yards, no touchdowns, two picks, four sacks.

535
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 4: Rematch against Tampa Bay, he throws a lot more and

536
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,640
Speaker 4: gets a little bit more yardage thirty three or forty

537
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 4: eight three forty six, So that looked good, three touchdowns,

538
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 4: but got picked again and got sacked five times. So

539
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 4: in the two games against Tampa, Rogers averages six point

540
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 4: one yards in attempt, one point five interceptions per game

541
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 4: and four and a half sacks per game versus everyone

542
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,719
Speaker 4: else eight yards in attempt point two interceptions in one

543
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,199
Speaker 4: point six sacks over that span. So he's average two

544
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,880
Speaker 4: yards pert tempt less interceptions go up sevenfold, his sacks

545
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 4: go up threefold against his defense. And the crazy thing

546
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,439
Speaker 4: was in those two matchups, the first time, they blitzed

547
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,239
Speaker 4: them forty nine percent of the time. The second time

548
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:14,719
Speaker 4: they bliched them forty percent of the time. So they

549
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 4: can also bring blitzes at them, and I think that

550
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 4: in this type of matchup without Davonte Adams that could

551
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 4: also be effective because they can't cover.

552
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 1: You know, they get manned.

553
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:26,360
Speaker 4: They're not gonna be scared to just man up the receivers.

554
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,880
Speaker 4: They just have so many different options. So the edge

555
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 4: in this matchup for me has nothing to do with

556
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 4: the off the bucks being banged up on offense. Because

557
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 4: the numbers come down. It was three and a half

558
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 4: at one point. Now you're getting that I got it

559
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 4: at one. Actually no, I got the money line. But

560
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 4: it's the line is at one when I bet the

561
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 4: money line, and you know it's hovering between one one

562
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:47,440
Speaker 4: and a half. It was at three and a half,

563
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 4: So you're getting the discount for no Evans, no Godwin,

564
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 4: maybe no Julio as well. Donovan Smith likely to miss

565
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 4: again as well, although Brandon Walton who replaced Josh Wells,

566
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 4: who replaced Smith because Wells is going to be out

567
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 4: to now underrafted free agent from FAU. He actually graded

568
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 4: as the ninth best pass blocker at PFF amongst sixty

569
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 4: seven tackles last week twenty two snaps no pressures, So

570
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 4: you know, it might not be as much of an

571
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 4: issue as you know we're making it out to me.

572
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 1: But either way, you're getting the discount on the line

573
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 1: for that.

574
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 4: So the edges in the fact that I don't think

575
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 4: people realize how this Bucks defense can get after Aaron Rodgers.

576
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 4: So and by the way, Bucks, because you're essential, I mean,

577
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 4: the line is at a place you're essentially taking him

578
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:33,400
Speaker 4: to win the game. They lost at home twice last year,

579
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 4: New Orleans nine. Nothing, that's New Orleans. We know what

580
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 4: happens with New Orleans and in the playoffs, and that

581
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 4: was that Rams game thirty to twenty seven. And going

582
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 4: back the last two years since Brady's been there, four

583
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 4: of their five home losses are against the Saints and Rams,

584
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 4: and the other one is against the Chiefs in a

585
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 4: game where Tyreek Hill put up like two hundred yards

586
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 4: in the first quarter and the Packers don't have DeVante Adams.

587
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 1: So I think edge Bucks defense. Give me the Bucks

588
00:27:57,960 --> 00:27:58,919
Speaker 1: minus one and a half.

589
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 2: Into this a little bit in another angle I have here,

590
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 2: but went to see at backyard you will play which

591
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 2: will matter? Yeah, practice the Packers will do, will run

592
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 2: a fair amount of zone, which is never a smart

593
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 2: idea against Brady. But this, this Bucks offense sucks right now.

594
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 2: I mean, it is awful to watch. The only drive

595
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,359
Speaker 2: they put together in the entire game against the Saints

596
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 2: was Sean Hockyley like calling unnecessary roughnesses on fourth downs.

597
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 2: And but what is the Packers offense right now? It

598
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 2: is like we need to run the ball. You can't

599
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,639
Speaker 2: run the ball against Tampa. They're not gonna like they

600
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 2: don't have any advantages on the outside. So this totals

601
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 2: come way down. And it's two Hall of Fame quarterbacks,

602
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 2: by the way, the two most profitable quarterbacks to back

603
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 2: over the past twenty years, right right around fifty nine percent.

604
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 2: This totals come way down and normally I'd be like,

605
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 2: you know, I was talking about the overreactions. I agree

606
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 2: with the move. I actually might play the first half

607
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 2: under I think this will be like three three six

608
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 2: three at the half. Maybe you know Brady or you

609
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 2: know Pops a couple in the second half, but I

610
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 2: think the dominate this game. I don't mind you taking

611
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 2: the lane one with Tampa Tampa Bay.

612
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 4: Tom Brady favored under a field goal in his career

613
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 4: eleven and six against the spread, but against Rogers he's

614
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 4: played him four times, three and one against the spread.

615
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 4: One each of the last three beats the spread by

616
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 4: an average of eleven and a half points per game,

617
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 4: and a lot of that is the defense. So Rogers

618
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 4: thirty point one rating under pressure through two games this year,

619
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 4: fifth worst among thirty three qualified passers. Rogers doesn't get

620
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 4: into these pressure situations often. Most defenses just aren't capable

621
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 4: of doing that, and the Bucks can do it perfect week.

622
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 1: So yeah, give me Bucks.

623
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 2: All right. For my second pick and the fourth overall

624
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 2: of the week three Sunday six pack presented by Fandle,

625
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 2: I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings minus five and a

626
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 2: half at home against the Detroit Lions. Look I am

627
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 2: not overreacting to what I saw. I love the Eagles

628
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 2: last week. It is a phenomenal matchup Kirk Cousins. You

629
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 2: know he turned into Kirk Cousins in prime time. It happens,

630
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 2: but he also if you look throughout his career, he

631
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 2: is horrendous against the own defense. The Eagles put on

632
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:11,959
Speaker 2: a clinic in that from a defensive standpoint, and Corusins

633
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 2: was just awful. The Lions run a ton of man

634
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 2: and this Cousins in this offense at home is still

635
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 2: one of the best home field advantages in the NFL.

636
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 2: Off that bad loss coming home, they should eat this

637
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 2: Detroit defense alive. There is no one that can cover

638
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 2: anyone on this Vikings offense. And last year and look,

639
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 2: the Lions are better, but less of this line was

640
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 2: nine at home. But I think the Vikings are better too.

641
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 2: From a coaching standpoint, the time was nine home. And

642
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 2: by the way, the Vikings one by two in one game.

643
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 2: They lost by two in one game when they gave

644
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,760
Speaker 2: up a touchdown on the very last play with no

645
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:50,719
Speaker 2: time remaining the game that they won by two, they

646
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 2: should have won by way more. You had them minus

647
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 2: nine last game. I remember that and there was like

648
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 2: a fumble at the end, and then they gave another

649
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 2: kick and then it was just a back to then

650
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 2: I ended up kicking a field goal to win it.

651
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 2: That's the Zimmer way, like they take their foot off

652
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 2: the gas. And and by the way, Dalvin Cook didn't

653
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 2: play in any of the meetings last year. Adam Field

654
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 2: and missed one of the meetings, so they were their

655
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 2: offense was never at full strike. Offensive line is in

656
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 2: better shape now, so I think the Lions are better,

657
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 2: but I also think the Vikings are better. I think

658
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 2: that you're getting this line really cheap. And because everyone

659
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 2: is just on this Lion's hype and I was on.

660
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 2: Everyone told me last week to bet the Commanders, right,

661
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 2: and the market moved in, are you on the Lions?

662
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 2: And then like to bet the Commanders on the road. No,

663
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 2: we're in the We were betting the Lions. But now everyone,

664
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 2: all the people that wanted the bet, that one of

665
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 2: the bet the Commanders want to bet the Lions. And

666
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 2: then also a lot of people were telling me about

667
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 2: the Vikings last week against the Eagles under a field goal,

668
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 2: and I'm saying no, and now everyone says fade the

669
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 2: lot fade the Vikings. I mean, it's amazing after week

670
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,720
Speaker 2: won the Vikings win the super Bowl. After last week

671
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 2: against a really good Philadelphia team in a bad matchup,

672
00:31:56,280 --> 00:32:00,239
Speaker 2: now the Vikings stink so like it's so I think

673
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 2: you're getting your I think there's a bunch of B seven.

674
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 2: I think you're getting it cheap. The Lions offense could

675
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 2: give Minnesota some problems here. Harrison Smith might be out safety.

676
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 2: You're gonna have a really young secondary, and Detroit's offense

677
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 2: has been explosive. They still some injuries on the offensive line,

678
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 2: but apparently it doesn't matter. But the Vikings offense is

679
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 2: a lot better and the Vikings defense is more talented.

680
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 2: They're at home here off an embarrassing loss with a

681
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 2: really good coach, good home field advantage, and just I

682
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 2: love the play calling that I'm seeing and this isn't

683
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 2: going to be your Vikings team. That's like up fourteen

684
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 2: to three, and then they start handing it off on

685
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 2: first and second down and then they're punting and then

686
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 2: like and after what they did last year with the Viking,

687
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 2: the Lions and the lines when they won that game

688
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 2: that was their first win, really embarrassing loss for the Vikings.

689
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 2: I think they come out here at home. You hear

690
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 2: the horn. You'll be hearing that horn a lot. I

691
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 2: think they build a lead and then they stay on it.

692
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 2: The Lions won't make it easy, but I think there's

693
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 2: some value here, especially under six, but anything under a touchdown.

694
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 2: The Vikings skull.

695
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is one I was eager to talk to

696
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 4: you about because I think it has implications for survivor too.

697
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 4: It's it's a tough week per survivor. So I wanted

698
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 4: to hear your case for the Vikings because I'm I'm

699
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 4: not there to be honest, you know. I mean, this

700
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 4: Lion's offense is just like a back door cover machine.

701
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 4: That's what scares me about, you know, laying five and

702
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 4: a half six against this this Lion seems that, you know,

703
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 4: I mean everyone get quote the stat they've scored thirty

704
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 4: five or more and three straight games dating back to

705
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 4: last year. But you know, I do think with this

706
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 4: offensive line healthy going against the Minnesota defense, that it's

707
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 4: still kind of mediocre.

708
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 1: I mean, it should be better, but I'm kind of

709
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 1: worried about the back door cover.

710
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 4: It's division games, so I probably won't join you on

711
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,239
Speaker 4: the spread, but might have to might still end up

712
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 4: taking the Vikings for survivor because it's a tough week.

713
00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 4: But yeah, you know, it is interesting though, because I

714
00:33:57,520 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 4: do think the Lions, like the fact that it's a

715
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 4: division game, worries me a little bit more because like,

716
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 4: for example, you know you mentioned Kirk Cousins, you know,

717
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 4: eats up man coverage. Well in that second matchup last

718
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:11,399
Speaker 4: year which the Lions pulled the upset. Uh, they played

719
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 4: about seventy five percent zone in that game, which I

720
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 4: don't remember exactly how much man they were running last

721
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 4: year because they cornerback suck last year too. But yeah,

722
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 4: like it just there's certain things that just worried me

723
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 4: with the familiarity here.

724
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 1: But I get the same time.

725
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:29,720
Speaker 4: You know, it's a new new coaching staff for the Viking,

726
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 4: so they should have the element of you know, surprise

727
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:34,359
Speaker 4: and haven't put everything on tape yet.

728
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the Minnesotas runs such an inefficient offense and

729
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 2: by the way, in that game, they didn't have to

730
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 2: fealing are cooked.

731
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 1: Yeah that's true.

732
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 2: It matters, But eventually the lines aren't going to cover

733
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 2: every week. There's gonna be some regression coming in that

734
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 2: standpoint as well, and I think because of what the

735
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 2: Vikings saw last year with that, They're gonna keep their

736
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 2: foot on the gas here. And I'm not as worried

737
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 2: about the back door. Like a road dog with low

738
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:57,800
Speaker 2: totals always scary in division, but this, I mean, this

739
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 2: total's very high. Expect a lot of points, which eliminates

740
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:05,359
Speaker 2: some of the concern there. But they certainly could could

741
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,320
Speaker 2: do it again and getting back door. But hopefully the

742
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 2: Vikings build a big enough lead or golf gives us

743
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:12,800
Speaker 2: a turnover late. But I think there's value in this

744
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 2: number after what we saw last week.

745
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 1: I got three words for you. You like that, I'm

746
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 1: rooting for you, all right.

747
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 4: For my third and final pick of the week, number

748
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 4: three Sunday six pack, the fifth overall pick, I am

749
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 4: going with the Houston Texans plus two and a half

750
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 4: at the Chicago Bears. I know, talk about hold your nose.

751
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 4: I mean, this is this is disgusting, but I make

752
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:42,280
Speaker 4: this one about one one and a half, so getting

753
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 4: some value here. I got it at three, hopefully it

754
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 4: gets back there. I think the Texans have a good

755
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 4: shot at winning this game. I just look at the

756
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 4: Chicago team and It's a team that a lot of

757
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:53,799
Speaker 4: us were down on heading into the year, and then

758
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 4: they got that Week one upset and everyone's, Okay, maybe

759
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 4: they're going to be a little better. And then we

760
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:00,839
Speaker 4: saw what they did last week, and you know, it's

761
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 4: kind of what we expected, you know, them to.

762
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:03,479
Speaker 1: Be in the first place.

763
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 4: But I think there's just some concerning things when you

764
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:09,359
Speaker 4: look at how these teams match up. First of all,

765
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 4: you know, Chicago, their opponent's fumbled five times already. Chicago's

766
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:15,359
Speaker 4: only fumbled once and recovered it. Their opponents have lost

767
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 4: a couple Fields, has two picks on just forty dropbacks.

768
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 1: You know they're hiding fields.

769
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 4: He's still got two picks, got one of the highest

770
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:25,279
Speaker 4: interception rates in the league, but he also has the

771
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 4: highest turnover worthy throw rate in the league, which partly

772
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:32,400
Speaker 4: explains why they're not throwing the ball with him. So

773
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:35,800
Speaker 4: his turnover a worthy throw rate is nine point eight percent,

774
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 4: and that is three percentage points higher than the second highest,

775
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:42,920
Speaker 4: which is Derek Carr. Not only through two weeks, but

776
00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:46,360
Speaker 4: this is not ideal for a quarterback that also finished

777
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 4: last in the league in QBR last year.

778
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 1: He's second to last this year.

779
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:52,879
Speaker 4: His time to throw in the pocket is three point

780
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 4: five to four seconds, which is over a half second

781
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:57,919
Speaker 4: more than you know, the second highest guy.

782
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:01,760
Speaker 1: So he's just not process when he's dropping back to pass.

783
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 4: And now you're going against this Houston team that if

784
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 4: you're looking for a team to pull it up step,

785
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:10,720
Speaker 4: I think this is in an ideal scenario because Houston,

786
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 4: on the other hand, you know they're black talent.

787
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:16,760
Speaker 1: We know that like they have that's their big issue.

788
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 4: But as far as just playing like decent, like sound football,

789
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:25,440
Speaker 4: they're doing it like Davis Mills has a one percent

790
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 4: turnover worthy throw rate, just one all year, no interceptions,

791
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:31,360
Speaker 4: getting the ball out the fourth quickest. UH should have

792
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,240
Speaker 4: some luck go his ways at the third most drops

793
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 4: in the league. And the offensive line holding up. You know,

794
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 4: the tackles are pretty good in tunsl and Howard Uh.

795
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 4: You know, so the O line's playing well, they're not

796
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 4: really turning the ball over. The Statistically speaking, Houston UH

797
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 4: been better on defense sixteenth to DVOA Chicago twenty seventh,

798
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 4: and better on offense twenty sixth versus Chicago thirtieth, but

799
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 4: they've also been decent on first and second downs, which

800
00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 4: tends to weed to you know, more predictive results than

801
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:03,360
Speaker 4: just you know, third downs, a lot more walk and

802
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 4: things like that. First down passing Houston fourteenth in Dvoa

803
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 4: first down overall, fourteen, second down fourteenth second second down

804
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 4: passing fourteen, second down overall twelfth. Chicago's offense dead last

805
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 4: in passing on both first and second down and overall

806
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 4: thirtieth in Dvoa on first downs, twentieth on second down.

807
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 4: So that's not that's not an ideal scenario for Chicago.

808
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 4: And now they're talking about, oh my god, we got

809
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:32,240
Speaker 4: to get Mooney more.

810
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,280
Speaker 1: Involved, we got to get co Cormet more involved.

811
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 4: Well, now you're just gonna put justin fields in a

812
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 4: situation where they're more likely to turn the ball over

813
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 4: when they really.

814
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:42,760
Speaker 1: Should just be running the ball on this Texans defense.

815
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 4: And so I just think Chicago's kind of stuck between

816
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:48,320
Speaker 4: the rock and a hard place here, because you know,

817
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 4: the fans are going to be clamoring for more passing,

818
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 4: but if things go wrong, they're gonna boo. I actually

819
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 4: don't think the homefielder advantage necessarily works in Chicago's favor

820
00:38:57,320 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 4: in this spot. Houston has nothing to lose, but there's

821
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 4: they're still gonna be hungry. They haven't got that win yet,

822
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 4: but they hung around in these games. And you do

823
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:07,400
Speaker 4: have the trends kind of back in Houston here a

824
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 4: winless dog UH plus one and a half to seven

825
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 4: in weeks two through four one seven eighty one and

826
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 4: four sixty one percent against the spread, including forty twenty

827
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,719
Speaker 4: six and two against the spread. In week three, road

828
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 4: dogs plus two and a half to six and a

829
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:25,440
Speaker 4: half with a total under fifty coming like coming off

830
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 4: a bad year, so pretty much a bad team two

831
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 4: to six wins the year before, UH hitting two forty

832
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 4: six twelve sixty three percent twenty eight percent ROI excluding

833
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 4: the last two weeks of the season.

834
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 2: So uh.

835
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 1: And of course you got the Lovey Smith revenge spot

836
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 1: here for so I think the Smith You's gonna come

837
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 1: back to the Pago show off his new set.

838
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 2: That's how I know you're at the end of your

839
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 2: your case when you get to the Lovey Smith revenge.

840
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I'm joking, but no, I I more I

841
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 1: look into it.

842
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 4: I had it.

843
00:39:57,560 --> 00:39:58,840
Speaker 2: I had it written down here by the way, I

844
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 2: love the Smith's Revenge a game and I was going

845
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:03,479
Speaker 2: to say I was I was mad that you've ruined it. Wow,

846
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 2: But many more interesting things to say about many other games.

847
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:10,439
Speaker 2: So I'm not going to bore you are audience because

848
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 2: I have no I have no angle on this, I

849
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 2: have no interest in watching it. But now I will

850
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 2: for the pod. I'll be rooting for the Texans, but

851
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 2: I will bring something fun to the occasion. Before I

852
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 2: get to my last pick, your quarterbacks that you picked

853
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 2: are Tom Brady, Davis Mills, and Matt Ryan kind of

854
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 2: running the gamut of like Call of Famer. Yeah, but

855
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:35,400
Speaker 2: if you line them all up at the one at

856
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 2: the one and then they raced, it's not not a

857
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:41,320
Speaker 2: forty but one hundred yards from the one to the

858
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 2: other one on the football field. What do you think

859
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 2: is the order of finish?

860
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 4: Brady number one, definitely TV twelve method. He's getting younger

861
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:51,919
Speaker 4: as he gets older. And then I go Davis Mills

862
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 4: number two because he's younger than that.

863
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 2: Ryan, So you would go Brady over Mills.

864
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:58,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's TV twelve bro, Like, Okay, he's getting younger?

865
00:40:59,280 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 3: Is he?

866
00:40:59,480 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 2: Not?

867
00:40:59,600 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 1: Even?

868
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 2: You know? But all right, for my third pick in

869
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 2: the sixth overall of the Sunday six pack, I'm going

870
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 2: with the Las Vegas Raiders minus two and a half

871
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:17,239
Speaker 2: at the Tennessee Titans. I don't love this number, like

872
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:20,239
Speaker 2: I don't show a ton of value in it, but

873
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 2: I I love the matchup and I am so down

874
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 2: on Tennessee. And you know, there's not much of a

875
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:30,359
Speaker 2: difference in the NFL between minus two and half minus

876
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:32,880
Speaker 2: one and a half, and there are much more concerning

877
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 2: injuries on the Tennessee side. Although the Raiders, I mean no,

878
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 2: they didn't have five. They didn't have five guys, five

879
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:44,279
Speaker 2: starters a practice today, Renfro concussion, their center James Well

880
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 2: Nichols or de tackle buying backer Perryman, and safety more

881
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 2: Worth monitoring. Titans were missing for the one who I

882
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 2: think is gonna be out for the year. I don't

883
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:53,600
Speaker 2: know if you could pick the reports there.

884
00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:54,359
Speaker 1: I think he's done.

885
00:41:55,239 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 2: Their right guard Nate Davis Fulton was back of practice

886
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 2: but limited, but the Titans signed. So let's break this

887
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 2: down a little bit. By the way, the Titans are

888
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 2: well deserved. Oh and too, they got absolutely destroyed by

889
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 2: the Bills and I was super long the coming into

890
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 2: the air. I think that the the they have so

891
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 2: much regression coming in close games. It is insane, but

892
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 2: they get destroyed by the Bills. If you look at that,

893
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:23,320
Speaker 2: a lot of people are saying like the Giants deserve

894
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 2: to lose that game. I disagree. If you look at

895
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:29,800
Speaker 2: that box score, I think the Giants went on the

896
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,760
Speaker 2: road and were the better team, regardless lost their home opener.

897
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 2: The Giants, they weren't great, even though I'm high on them,

898
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 2: They're deserved oh two. The Raiders, on the other hand,

899
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 2: I think are getting not enough respect. They lost to

900
00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 2: the Chargers on the road in Week one, not a

901
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 2: bad loss at all, and I think they have more

902
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:53,000
Speaker 2: yards per play, higher yards per play. Game could have

903
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 2: went either way. Then the next week against the Cardinals,

904
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:58,840
Speaker 2: they play a healthy, a healthier Cardinals team. They just

905
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 2: took their foot off the gap. I mean they were

906
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 2: thirty eight to oh a twenty plus point lead in

907
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 2: franchise history. They're twenty to nothing at the half, doing

908
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 2: whatever they wanted, and they kind of just took their

909
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 2: foot off the gas and then things just went They

910
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 2: got a call that went against them on a two

911
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 2: point conversion. Just absolutely awful for a wind total by

912
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 2: the way, just insane games. I think the Ravens. We'll

913
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 2: talk about them in a second, but they were a one.

914
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:25,239
Speaker 2: They had a ninety nine percent postgame win probability. It's

915
00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:27,359
Speaker 2: the highest and a loss in the last four years.

916
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 2: The Browns bluff thirteens ago and Uck.

917
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 4: Chuck does a good Yeah, I covered a bet. I

918
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 4: remember this very vividly. I had Texans plus three and

919
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:38,959
Speaker 4: a half.

920
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 3: Here is Chubb going outside one won't go out of

921
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:43,800
Speaker 3: bounds and he doesn't.

922
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:45,360
Speaker 2: And he may go all the.

923
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 3: Way and he does, don't. Flags are down and Chubb

924
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 3: he ran out of bound, goes out of bounds at

925
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 3: the one yard line.

926
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 2: Could have been seventeen to seven. I don't think it

927
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 2: makes much of a difference.

928
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:58,880
Speaker 1: He said, Look, I'm not even taking a chance and

929
00:43:58,960 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 1: the game's over.

930
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:03,920
Speaker 4: He wanted that third touchdown. Greas fantasy owners, I respect it.

931
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 2: The Raiders easily could be two and up. This whole

932
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:10,239
Speaker 2: narrative would be completely different. And then I just love

933
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:12,920
Speaker 2: this matchup here. So you're not gonna have Taylor Lawan,

934
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 2: and you might not have your guard either. You have

935
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 2: a couple of rookies on the line. You're going up

936
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,240
Speaker 2: gets a really good edge rush your backup left tackle

937
00:44:19,360 --> 00:44:22,319
Speaker 2: gave up more pressures last game in relief than Taylor

938
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 2: Lawan has in his last nine games combined, one of

939
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:28,759
Speaker 2: the worst backups in the NFL. The Raiders should be

940
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 2: able to create pressure, and the Raiders run defense has

941
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 2: been really good so far this year, and the Titans

942
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 2: rush offense has been the worst in the NFL from

943
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,440
Speaker 2: an efficiency and explosive in the standpoint, their offensive line

944
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 2: as awful as we talked about Derrick Henry, doesn't look

945
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,640
Speaker 2: like he has the same explosiveness, but he's just there's

946
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:50,839
Speaker 2: and there's nothing there for him. The runout, he doesn't. Yeah,

947
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 2: it doesn't look the same. And then you don't have

948
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:56,360
Speaker 2: to respect the outside. So it's easier as a defense

949
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 2: to defend the run. The receivers don't scare you, and

950
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 2: that's how you have to attack this Raiders defense. You

951
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 2: have to be able to throw on their secondary and

952
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:07,880
Speaker 2: the Titans can't really do that. So I just you know,

953
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:09,360
Speaker 2: on the other side of the ball, there are the

954
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:12,799
Speaker 2: Titans just signed Terrence Mitchell today because it doesn't look

955
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:15,400
Speaker 2: like Fulton will be at full strength to play. There

956
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 2: are other options at corner if Fulton doesn't play. Are

957
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:21,840
Speaker 2: a big rookie of Farley who's basically a rookie, McCreary

958
00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 2: who is a rookie, and an undrafted rookie Tray Avery,

959
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 2: who's probably still having nightmares from that Bills game. So yeah,

960
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:32,080
Speaker 2: it's it's bad the Titans that they don't They still

961
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:34,480
Speaker 2: don't have their top pass rushers out for the year,

962
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 2: and you know, the Raiders offensive line is kind of

963
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:40,360
Speaker 2: the weak point of that offense. I don't think the

964
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 2: Titans can really take advantage. Their secondary is a mess.

965
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 2: I think Carl will have a big day here, will

966
00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:48,840
Speaker 2: have enough time to take advantage of the mismatches he

967
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:51,520
Speaker 2: has on the outside. I think the Raiders run defense

968
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:53,320
Speaker 2: has been really good. We'll be able to get pressure

969
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 2: on the edge. Raiders are a respectable team and the

970
00:45:57,560 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 2: Titans are, I'm telling you, bottom eight team the NFL

971
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:01,480
Speaker 2: this year.

972
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:03,840
Speaker 4: What really stands out to me about the Titans is

973
00:46:03,880 --> 00:46:06,640
Speaker 4: they don't have that Dereck Henry magic because that covered

974
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 4: up for a lot. You know, they could hand and

975
00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 4: they didn't always have to have the best offensive line,

976
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:13,719
Speaker 4: but they could count on maybe three or four times

977
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:16,480
Speaker 4: a game handing it to Derrick Henry, head of steam

978
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:19,800
Speaker 4: and he just makes something happen and it creates points.

979
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:22,760
Speaker 4: And this year he just looks like a big dude

980
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:27,760
Speaker 4: that's running slow into a pile. But like he doesn't

981
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 4: look like like if you didn't know he was King Henry,

982
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:33,879
Speaker 4: you wouldn't be scared of him if you were lining

983
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 4: up a linebacker, you know, for you know, you wouldn't

984
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:37,760
Speaker 4: be scared to bet against.

985
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 1: You wouldn't be anything.

986
00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 4: So that's an issue for the Titans and for the Raiders.

987
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 4: I think what's really going wrong is Derek Carr is

988
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 4: kind of having some trouble adjusting to this new scheme.

989
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:51,040
Speaker 4: You know, he kind of talked about he's not really

990
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 4: making any checks at the line anymore. It's all just,

991
00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:55,640
Speaker 4: you know mc daniel SAIDs in the play, he goes

992
00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 4: where the play is designed to go. And I think

993
00:46:57,960 --> 00:46:59,840
Speaker 4: that's just causing him to be a little bit robotic,

994
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 4: you know, as opposed to he was. You know, he

995
00:47:03,160 --> 00:47:05,200
Speaker 4: kind of got better every year in that Gruden scheme.

996
00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:07,840
Speaker 4: You know, whatever you think of Derek Carr, he absolutely

997
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 4: was improving year by year and that's treaming it out now.

998
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 4: I think he's just kind of back to that guy

999
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:16,200
Speaker 4: who he can't trust. To be consistent, you know, from

1000
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 4: a week week base, and he's admitted himself. But I'm

1001
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 4: just looking at him play. I mean, I talked about

1002
00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:21,879
Speaker 4: justin fields, like Jarrek Carr is like right after justin

1003
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:23,759
Speaker 4: fields and like all these metrics and like you know,

1004
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 4: turnover withy throw rate and you know, just mistakes, interceptions,

1005
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 4: all that stuff.

1006
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 1: So you know, that's the only thing that kind of

1007
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 1: worries me.

1008
00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:34,719
Speaker 4: But I still do agree that the Titans are just

1009
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:37,160
Speaker 4: not They're just a show of themselves right now. They

1010
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 4: don't really have anything going for them. You know, maybe

1011
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:42,840
Speaker 4: the defense can step up and create some pressure with that.

1012
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:44,320
Speaker 4: You know that that's kind of what they're gonna have

1013
00:47:44,360 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 4: to do. But like you said, they can't run and

1014
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:49,400
Speaker 4: they can't cover, and that's that's an issue going against

1015
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:50,279
Speaker 4: this this rated team.

1016
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:51,320
Speaker 1: So I don't disagree.

1017
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:53,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they don't have the receivers to take advantage

1018
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 2: of a greater secondary. That has a bit of an issue.

1019
00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 2: Now you don't have your tackle on the offensive line

1020
00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 2: this week, and that's the strength of the Raiders defense

1021
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:03,840
Speaker 2: is the pass rush. And look these both both of

1022
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:05,719
Speaker 2: these teams are row and two against the spread. Both

1023
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:07,759
Speaker 2: these teams are own two straight up. Both of them

1024
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:11,000
Speaker 2: are being looked down upon by the market. Both of

1025
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 2: them will be desperate. Here. What this comes down to is,

1026
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 2: I don't think that the market really has caught up

1027
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:19,359
Speaker 2: to how poor I think the Titans will be this year,

1028
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:22,919
Speaker 2: and so I think that the Raiders get this done

1029
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 2: on the road. So yeah, that'll do it fair enough.

1030
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 1: Star Sunny six pack four Week three.

1031
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:34,880
Speaker 4: You've got Atlanta plus one and a half, the Vikings

1032
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 4: minus five and a half, and the Vegas Raiders minus

1033
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:43,840
Speaker 4: one and a half on the road against the Tennessee Titans.

1034
00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:48,640
Speaker 4: I have the Indianapolis Coats plus five and a half,

1035
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:51,400
Speaker 4: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus one and a half, and

1036
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:54,719
Speaker 4: the Houston Texans plus two and a half. In the

1037
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:59,359
Speaker 4: Lovey Smith revenge spot. Now it is time for our

1038
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 4: coaches pep talk.

1039
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:03,600
Speaker 2: I dont know what you de Paul, This art bultrap

1040
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:06,759
Speaker 2: all right to your airbody, do you understand by all.

1041
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:08,480
Speaker 4: Right, today's coach is pep talk comes to us from

1042
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:11,239
Speaker 4: Danny DeVito, and it's always sunny in Philadelphia.

1043
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna dedicate this one to.

1044
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:17,719
Speaker 4: The coach Frank Reich because I think we both really

1045
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:19,800
Speaker 4: need him to show up. It's been an embarrassment, but

1046
00:49:20,080 --> 00:49:22,440
Speaker 4: we were on the right side of those games anyway,

1047
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:23,439
Speaker 4: so we don't.

1048
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 1: We don't. It didn't really.

1049
00:49:24,360 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 4: Affect us in any type of way. But this week

1050
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 4: we really need them to step their shit up. So frank, right,

1051
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 4: this one's for you.

1052
00:49:31,880 --> 00:49:36,240
Speaker 2: This is pathetic, this is awful. We've all been humiliated.

1053
00:49:36,719 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 1: Our asses are destroyed. We can't go out like that.

1054
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:45,000
Speaker 2: Look, if life pushes you down, you gotta push back.

1055
00:49:45,400 --> 00:49:47,440
Speaker 1: If you're dump a bunch of womens.

1056
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:49,879
Speaker 2: You gotta take those lemons and stuff.

1057
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:52,320
Speaker 1: Them down somebody's throat until they see yellow.

1058
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:56,359
Speaker 2: And if some punk ass kids humiliate you, you gotta

1059
00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 2: do the only thing that's left to do.

1060
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:04,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, what's the one thing left to do?

1061
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:09,160
Speaker 2: What is it? Well, the thing of it is, there's

1062
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:13,279
Speaker 2: the lemon stuff. And then I lost my train of thought.

1063
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:15,359
Speaker 1: Let's come back to the bar, all right.

1064
00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:18,240
Speaker 4: Let's jump into our favorite totals of the week. Usually

1065
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:19,880
Speaker 4: we give out our top total, we count it for

1066
00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:22,439
Speaker 4: a point. This week, we're actually not going to count

1067
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:26,160
Speaker 4: the point because both of us really don't like any

1068
00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 4: of the totals on the market. We don't want to

1069
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:28,920
Speaker 4: just force a pick, give out a pick just to

1070
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:31,359
Speaker 4: give out a pick. You know, we are betting all

1071
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:33,439
Speaker 4: of the picks that we give out on the show.

1072
00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:35,920
Speaker 4: So probably what you said earlier about the fact that

1073
00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:38,360
Speaker 4: a lot of games went under last week, the lines

1074
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:41,320
Speaker 4: just seem a bit sharper. Usually we're looking for unders,

1075
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 4: and uh, not really many that I can make a

1076
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:47,600
Speaker 4: strong case for. I think, you know, maybe Jacksonville Chargers,

1077
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:50,200
Speaker 4: just on speculation that you know, the Chargers end up

1078
00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:52,640
Speaker 4: sitting some guys against a jack scene that they maybe

1079
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:55,279
Speaker 4: think they could win, Herbert obviously being chief among them.

1080
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:57,759
Speaker 2: If you wanted to look for some overs this week

1081
00:50:57,800 --> 00:51:00,560
Speaker 2: and think that there's you know, some these lines have

1082
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:03,279
Speaker 2: gone the totals have gone too far. Now again, we

1083
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:06,040
Speaker 2: only have a sample size of two weeks, so maybe

1084
00:51:06,080 --> 00:51:08,759
Speaker 2: they haven't gone far enough. But if I were to guess,

1085
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:12,000
Speaker 2: we probably get we'll probably get an over week in

1086
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:14,360
Speaker 2: that it'll be at least, you know, a game or

1087
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:16,959
Speaker 2: two over five hundred overs go with how they've gone.

1088
00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:19,520
Speaker 2: A couple overs that I would look at Bengals Jets

1089
00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:20,839
Speaker 2: and by the way, that that's the last we'll talk

1090
00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 2: of the Chargers Jags game. We'll have right ups for that, Oliver.

1091
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:24,840
Speaker 2: It's all the ends. It's just that we don't know

1092
00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:27,600
Speaker 2: with Herbert Keenan Allen the offensive line. So without knowing

1093
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:29,960
Speaker 2: Herbert is worth like a touchdown, it's hard to really

1094
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 2: make a call in that game. Bengals Jets over over

1095
00:51:33,160 --> 00:51:35,440
Speaker 2: forty four forty four and a half. This line is

1096
00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:38,200
Speaker 2: short to me if you assume that the Bengals offense

1097
00:51:38,239 --> 00:51:40,959
Speaker 2: will ever wake up. The Jets are playing really fast.

1098
00:51:41,000 --> 00:51:42,600
Speaker 2: I think the Bengals are going to come out firing

1099
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:45,040
Speaker 2: all over the field after all their comments this week,

1100
00:51:45,440 --> 00:51:47,640
Speaker 2: and they should be able to move the ball on

1101
00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 2: the Jets defense. I mean, Persett died at Will. You know,

1102
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 2: he had a great game. The Ravens scored at Will,

1103
00:51:54,560 --> 00:51:57,319
Speaker 2: so you know, Look, the Jets have a decent defensive line,

1104
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:00,279
Speaker 2: but it's not TJ. Watt and the Steelers is not

1105
00:52:00,400 --> 00:52:03,600
Speaker 2: Michael Parsons. So some of these issues with their offensive line,

1106
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 2: which we talked about, I've been fading in the past

1107
00:52:05,520 --> 00:52:08,520
Speaker 2: two weeks. Maybe I can't still cake combine to Bengals,

1108
00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:11,400
Speaker 2: So I say it improved, but I still think that

1109
00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 2: they'll have a lot more opportunities to make plays here.

1110
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:16,880
Speaker 2: And I'm not a huge fan of the Bengals defense,

1111
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:19,280
Speaker 2: and this is a team that had regression coming anyway,

1112
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 2: and to Borrow just doesn't look comfortable. Like Ale Collins

1113
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:24,040
Speaker 2: now dealing with an injury, but he's been cooked out

1114
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 2: there every play. Maybe that's not a bad thing that

1115
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:29,360
Speaker 2: he's out, but this offensive line is still trying to

1116
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:31,400
Speaker 2: find continuity. But I would think the Borrow and company

1117
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:33,759
Speaker 2: have a better week this week. Bengals, by the way,

1118
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 2: first team to be favored after losing their first two

1119
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:39,879
Speaker 2: games as touchdown plus underdogs in the past fifteen years.

1120
00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 2: The other one would be the Bills and the Dolphins,

1121
00:52:43,080 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 2: and this one has gone up a little bit. But

1122
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 2: it's it's hard for me to see this game not

1123
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 2: being an absolute shootout. Number One, the Dolphins have some

1124
00:52:52,200 --> 00:52:54,760
Speaker 2: of the fastest receivers in the NFL going up against

1125
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 2: a defense that is dealing with a lot of injuries

1126
00:52:58,200 --> 00:53:00,799
Speaker 2: on the back end. It's safety her back, you're already

1127
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:03,319
Speaker 2: missing Trey White. And then you have a Bills team

1128
00:53:03,360 --> 00:53:06,560
Speaker 2: that just shreds, just shreds this everybody, but especially this

1129
00:53:06,680 --> 00:53:10,080
Speaker 2: Dolphins team. They've won seven straight against the Dolphins. They

1130
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 2: scored forty two thirty one thirty seven, thirty one, fifty six,

1131
00:53:13,320 --> 00:53:16,720
Speaker 2: thirty five, and twenty six. Anyone with a pulse against

1132
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:18,839
Speaker 2: the Dolphins defense last year got to thirty. As long

1133
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:20,880
Speaker 2: as you got a starting quarterback and you had a pulse,

1134
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:24,080
Speaker 2: that was it. You got to thirty. So and they

1135
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:26,040
Speaker 2: might be missed. They're already missing one of their starting quarters.

1136
00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:27,960
Speaker 2: That could be missing another one. So it's hard for

1137
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:29,800
Speaker 2: me to see the Bills like the the Dolphins like

1138
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:31,839
Speaker 2: the Blitz. They get a lot of explosive plays. It's

1139
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:35,719
Speaker 2: just not a good formula against Josh Allen. So this

1140
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 2: one could turn into an absolute shootout. So those are

1141
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:42,799
Speaker 2: the two two total stuff look at if you're looking

1142
00:53:42,840 --> 00:53:43,280
Speaker 2: for overs.

1143
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:46,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like that call on the Bills Dolphins. I

1144
00:53:46,640 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 4: was looking at that injury report too. But yeah, let's

1145
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:52,640
Speaker 4: get into our favorite teasers of the Oh.

1146
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:57,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, six point teasers all.

1147
00:53:58,880 --> 00:54:01,840
Speaker 1: Don't tease me.

1148
00:54:07,480 --> 00:54:07,719
Speaker 3: All right?

1149
00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:08,800
Speaker 1: For anyone unfamiliar.

1150
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:11,760
Speaker 4: Teasers are when you get an extra allotment of points

1151
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:15,000
Speaker 4: to use on a parlay with two or more bets.

1152
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:18,400
Speaker 4: So the standards is a six point teaser, which means

1153
00:54:18,520 --> 00:54:21,480
Speaker 4: if you bet a seven point favorite, it becomes a

1154
00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:24,440
Speaker 4: one point favorite. A seven point underdog becomes a thirteen

1155
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:26,799
Speaker 4: point underdog. Stucky has a lot of great content out

1156
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 4: all teasers. You can just search Stucky Action Network teasers

1157
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:33,279
Speaker 4: and or Stocky teasers and you'll find it.

1158
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:35,200
Speaker 1: But where you're going this week.

1159
00:54:35,239 --> 00:54:40,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go with the Packers and the Broncos teased up.

1160
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 2: Here's a crazy staff for rosswin teases. Any dog is

1161
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:47,279
Speaker 2: care a thirty six and five eighty eight percent. You

1162
00:54:47,360 --> 00:54:50,120
Speaker 2: gotta be like seventy four and change at minus one

1163
00:54:50,160 --> 00:54:54,240
Speaker 2: twenty to break even Rogers thirty one and thirteen seventy.

1164
00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:54,800
Speaker 3: That's it.

1165
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:57,680
Speaker 2: Any dog we don't. We don't tease any dog. And

1166
00:54:58,120 --> 00:55:00,319
Speaker 2: a lot of times they have high totals. These two

1167
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 2: games have two low totals, and if you start hard

1168
00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:05,680
Speaker 2: enough out there, you can tease up both of them

1169
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:09,080
Speaker 2: above seven. And that's ultimately what to do. Total under

1170
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:12,479
Speaker 2: forty five tease two dogs above seven. This hits every

1171
00:55:12,800 --> 00:55:16,960
Speaker 2: single possible tease your qualification that I write about. And

1172
00:55:17,000 --> 00:55:18,480
Speaker 2: then what do you what? Do you also have two

1173
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:21,319
Speaker 2: future Hall of Fame quarterbacks? Why? What is? Why does

1174
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:25,840
Speaker 2: that matter? Well? If you're down fourteen late, a pretty

1175
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:27,480
Speaker 2: good chance you're gonna go down and get seven against

1176
00:55:27,480 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 2: the prevent defense. You know, it's not Mitch Trubisky trying

1177
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:33,800
Speaker 2: to get down the field. And so let's take a

1178
00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:39,239
Speaker 2: look at Rogers and Russ as an underdog in their

1179
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:43,800
Speaker 2: career with a total of forty five or less in

1180
00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:46,920
Speaker 2: a game that they finish. All right, So just overall

1181
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:51,040
Speaker 2: they're combined nineteen four and two against the spread eighty

1182
00:55:51,120 --> 00:55:56,080
Speaker 2: three percent. So how don't we tease them six points

1183
00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:59,920
Speaker 2: as a dog, both of them, Russ and Rogers as

1184
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:03,279
Speaker 2: a dog total under forty five twenty five and H

1185
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:07,040
Speaker 2: Russ seventeen and oh Rogers eight and H. It's never lost.

1186
00:56:07,560 --> 00:56:10,399
Speaker 2: So Broncos have issues, but I think the market's gone

1187
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:13,319
Speaker 2: a little too far on them. Yeah, I don't mean,

1188
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:15,040
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, I'm not playing the Bronco. I

1189
00:56:15,040 --> 00:56:16,520
Speaker 2: don't know if I'll play the Broncos plus one and

1190
00:56:16,520 --> 00:56:18,839
Speaker 2: a half, but I'll gladly take the Broncos and Russ

1191
00:56:18,840 --> 00:56:21,760
Speaker 2: plus seven and a half. Yeah, they moved, They destroyed

1192
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:23,360
Speaker 2: the Seahawks and just had bad bearances. They have some

1193
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:25,760
Speaker 2: red zone regression coming their way. It's a new system.

1194
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:27,759
Speaker 2: I'm sure they'll keep getting better. The injuries are a

1195
00:56:27,800 --> 00:56:31,560
Speaker 2: little concerning Jones. The tackle. Judy certain keep an eye

1196
00:56:31,600 --> 00:56:34,359
Speaker 2: on them, but you know, it's not like the forty

1197
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:36,279
Speaker 2: nine ers right now, our world beaters. They still have

1198
00:56:36,320 --> 00:56:40,000
Speaker 2: questions on the offensive line. Kittle might not play, and

1199
00:56:41,239 --> 00:56:42,880
Speaker 2: you know, I don't think that the forty nine are

1200
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:44,640
Speaker 2: going to go out there and blow the Broncos out

1201
00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 2: of the water. So hype spot for Denver at home

1202
00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:50,640
Speaker 2: if they're getting all this hate. And then I love

1203
00:56:50,760 --> 00:56:54,640
Speaker 2: Rogers catching over touchdowns here because number one, it's Rogers

1204
00:56:54,719 --> 00:56:56,799
Speaker 2: catching over a touchdown and under the total under forty

1205
00:56:56,800 --> 00:56:58,839
Speaker 2: five could be anybody. But I also think this game

1206
00:56:58,880 --> 00:57:00,800
Speaker 2: is gonuna be super low scoring. It's gonna be like

1207
00:57:00,920 --> 00:57:07,440
Speaker 2: seventeen thirteen. So yeah, give me the Broncos and the Packers.

1208
00:57:07,480 --> 00:57:08,400
Speaker 2: That's where I'm going. How are you?

1209
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 4: I'm going Texans and Falcons and talked about them already

1210
00:57:13,040 --> 00:57:15,400
Speaker 4: but kind of fit the same criteria outside of the

1211
00:57:15,480 --> 00:57:18,120
Speaker 4: quarterbacks are obviously on as good, but I like the

1212
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:20,880
Speaker 4: matchups for both of them, and you got well totals

1213
00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:23,600
Speaker 4: in both. By the way, I jumped on the Niners

1214
00:57:23,680 --> 00:57:26,120
Speaker 4: when the lines first drop got plus two and a half.

1215
00:57:26,640 --> 00:57:29,080
Speaker 4: I woke up the next day and apparently Sharp's had

1216
00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:31,960
Speaker 4: hit them. And they're like minus two. So yeah, I

1217
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:34,360
Speaker 4: think the market has gone a lot, a little too far.

1218
00:57:34,440 --> 00:57:37,200
Speaker 1: I'm still I'm not betting Hackett, you know, on a

1219
00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:40,760
Speaker 1: normal line until they showed me something. But yeah, I

1220
00:57:40,840 --> 00:57:43,000
Speaker 1: do agree the market has just gone gone crazy here.

1221
00:57:43,360 --> 00:57:45,760
Speaker 4: But all right, you got green Bay up to seven

1222
00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:47,040
Speaker 4: and a half, Denver up to seven and a half,

1223
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:48,560
Speaker 4: I got Atlanta up to seven and a half, and

1224
00:57:48,680 --> 00:57:50,280
Speaker 4: Houston up to eight and a half.

1225
00:57:50,720 --> 00:57:53,400
Speaker 1: Now it's getting into our money line underdog parley.

1226
00:57:56,080 --> 00:57:59,240
Speaker 3: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

1227
00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:02,440
Speaker 2: Time for the money line parlay.

1228
00:58:03,600 --> 00:58:05,600
Speaker 1: All right, as mentioned, we did hit last week.

1229
00:58:05,840 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 4: I'll make mine quick and then I'll let you talk

1230
00:58:07,840 --> 00:58:09,880
Speaker 4: because I'm gonna go with the Colts.

1231
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:11,479
Speaker 1: I just think they're gonna surprise people.

1232
00:58:11,520 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 4: This is a desperation spot for them, and usually when

1233
00:58:14,360 --> 00:58:15,880
Speaker 4: you see Underducks cover, they went out right.

1234
00:58:15,960 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 1: So I'll stick with the Colts here.

1235
00:58:17,800 --> 00:58:19,760
Speaker 2: But who you got, Yeah, I'm gonna go with the

1236
00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:22,040
Speaker 2: Dolphins here. I think that's say there's a lot of

1237
00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:24,920
Speaker 2: variants in this game due to some of the injuries

1238
00:58:24,960 --> 00:58:27,560
Speaker 2: on the Bills side. On defense, I think that the

1239
00:58:27,680 --> 00:58:31,000
Speaker 2: Bills on a short week here with these defensive injuries.

1240
00:58:31,080 --> 00:58:33,280
Speaker 2: It really hurts their prep because the Dolphins run a

1241
00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:36,720
Speaker 2: completely new offense. Now. I don't think that the Dolphins

1242
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:38,000
Speaker 2: will be able to exploit some of the things they

1243
00:58:38,040 --> 00:58:41,120
Speaker 2: did against the Ravens because the Bills are better covering linebackers.

1244
00:58:41,160 --> 00:58:43,120
Speaker 2: But if they're safeties are out and their corners are out,

1245
00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:45,160
Speaker 2: it could be a long day for that defense. And

1246
00:58:45,600 --> 00:58:47,680
Speaker 2: here's the thing with the Bills. When the Bills are good,

1247
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:51,480
Speaker 2: the Bills are really good, and they blow teams out

1248
00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:54,040
Speaker 2: of the water. They're fourteen and seven straight up in

1249
00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 2: their last twenty one games. All fourteen wins have come

1250
00:58:57,600 --> 00:59:00,240
Speaker 2: by twelve or more points. They're good. They're good. I'll

1251
00:59:00,240 --> 00:59:03,640
Speaker 2: give you another stat why to back that up. When

1252
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:08,520
Speaker 2: they're fifteen and two against the spread in the second

1253
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:12,000
Speaker 2: half in their last seventeen games. When leading at the half,

1254
00:59:12,360 --> 00:59:14,520
Speaker 2: when they're up, they just are going to blow you

1255
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:17,240
Speaker 2: out and they don't let up. When Josh Allen is

1256
00:59:17,240 --> 00:59:20,200
Speaker 2: good and the defense is good, they're great. Now, they'll

1257
00:59:20,240 --> 00:59:22,760
Speaker 2: have some shitters like the Jags game last year. So

1258
00:59:23,200 --> 00:59:25,280
Speaker 2: that's the hope here. And by the way, the Dolphins

1259
00:59:25,320 --> 00:59:27,800
Speaker 2: on the flip side, they own the current longest streak

1260
00:59:27,840 --> 00:59:30,080
Speaker 2: in the NFL. They've won twenty five straight at home

1261
00:59:30,440 --> 00:59:34,920
Speaker 2: when leading at the half, so you know, and the Bills,

1262
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:37,840
Speaker 2: I think this line is a little inflated. We've seen

1263
00:59:37,880 --> 00:59:40,200
Speaker 2: a lot of Bills love. Look, look, I'm low on

1264
00:59:40,240 --> 00:59:44,120
Speaker 2: the Rams' stremingly long on the Titans. This is a

1265
00:59:44,160 --> 00:59:47,080
Speaker 2: division game on the road on a short week, facing

1266
00:59:47,120 --> 00:59:51,400
Speaker 2: a new offense. And look the past twenty years, it's

1267
00:59:51,440 --> 00:59:54,840
Speaker 2: to show you. It's a highlight another Week three overreaction angle.

1268
00:59:54,960 --> 00:59:57,600
Speaker 2: In the past twenty years, only four other teams have

1269
00:59:57,920 --> 01:00:01,800
Speaker 2: averaged a straight up and then against the spread margin

1270
01:00:01,880 --> 01:00:04,120
Speaker 2: of at least twenty points. So both they're covering and

1271
01:00:04,160 --> 01:00:06,720
Speaker 2: winning by at least twenty points through their first two games.

1272
01:00:06,760 --> 01:00:10,960
Speaker 2: Only four other teams twenty nineteen Pats, twenty eleven Lions

1273
01:00:11,000 --> 01:00:13,560
Speaker 2: with Stafford, two thousand and six Chargers in two thousand

1274
01:00:13,560 --> 01:00:16,280
Speaker 2: and six pairs. They flew out their first two opponents

1275
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:19,000
Speaker 2: out of the water. Looked great. None of them covered

1276
01:00:19,040 --> 01:00:22,960
Speaker 2: in Week three, So just hold your horses on how

1277
01:00:23,120 --> 01:00:24,800
Speaker 2: great some of these teams look right now. Look, all

1278
01:00:24,840 --> 01:00:26,080
Speaker 2: we know the Bills are going to be great, but

1279
01:00:26,400 --> 01:00:28,240
Speaker 2: division game on the road here with a lot of

1280
01:00:28,280 --> 01:00:31,800
Speaker 2: defensive injuries, short week down to the humidity. I think

1281
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:35,720
Speaker 2: there's value in the money line more than the six

1282
01:00:36,320 --> 01:00:38,640
Speaker 2: the five and a half, because usually like this total

1283
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:40,600
Speaker 2: sky high things will be a ton of points. Not

1284
01:00:40,680 --> 01:00:43,040
Speaker 2: as much value in taking the points here in my opinion.

1285
01:00:43,640 --> 01:00:45,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that's a great stat And I saw that

1286
01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:47,640
Speaker 4: stat early and I thought the same thing.

1287
01:00:47,760 --> 01:00:49,280
Speaker 1: Is no point in taking them against spread. You need

1288
01:00:49,280 --> 01:00:51,040
Speaker 1: to take them a win or you just don't take

1289
01:00:51,080 --> 01:00:51,400
Speaker 1: them at all.

1290
01:00:52,040 --> 01:00:56,720
Speaker 4: So Miami plus two ten, indeed plus two fifteen, parlay

1291
01:00:56,800 --> 01:00:59,240
Speaker 4: them together get a return of about nine x one

1292
01:00:59,280 --> 01:01:03,000
Speaker 4: hundred fifty nine seventy six. Now is jump into the

1293
01:01:03,040 --> 01:01:05,040
Speaker 4: best of the rest, which are the games we did

1294
01:01:05,120 --> 01:01:06,360
Speaker 4: not discuss.

1295
01:01:06,040 --> 01:01:07,000
Speaker 1: In any other segment.

1296
01:01:07,400 --> 01:01:10,240
Speaker 4: We can make this quick New Orleans that Carolina plus

1297
01:01:10,320 --> 01:01:14,160
Speaker 4: three is Carolina at home. The totals forty and a half,

1298
01:01:14,320 --> 01:01:18,280
Speaker 4: sharps are on Carolina. Money's on Carolina in the under any.

1299
01:01:18,120 --> 01:01:20,480
Speaker 2: Thoughts, Panthers are and nine against the spread last nine

1300
01:01:20,520 --> 01:01:23,560
Speaker 2: two and thirteen past fifteen. I think rules one in

1301
01:01:23,640 --> 01:01:25,680
Speaker 2: twenty five, when he doesn't get more than seventeen points,

1302
01:01:27,920 --> 01:01:30,880
Speaker 2: I have nothing here. It's Panthers are nothing catching three.

1303
01:01:31,600 --> 01:01:35,280
Speaker 2: Whatever reason the Panthers have started slow in both games,

1304
01:01:35,320 --> 01:01:37,040
Speaker 2: and their offense kind of started to find a rhythm.

1305
01:01:37,280 --> 01:01:40,240
Speaker 2: So maybe if the sa if the Saints go up

1306
01:01:40,280 --> 01:01:42,400
Speaker 2: here early. I don't think that they're going to blow

1307
01:01:42,440 --> 01:01:43,640
Speaker 2: the Panthers out of the water. You can grab the

1308
01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:45,800
Speaker 2: Panthers live, but gross, I don't want to talk about

1309
01:01:45,800 --> 01:01:46,400
Speaker 2: this game anymore.

1310
01:01:46,560 --> 01:01:49,560
Speaker 4: Then we have to Ravens at New England plus two

1311
01:01:49,600 --> 01:01:52,000
Speaker 4: and a half is New England as a home dog

1312
01:01:52,080 --> 01:01:53,800
Speaker 4: with its total at forty three and a half. Sharps

1313
01:01:53,800 --> 01:01:57,480
Speaker 4: are on Baltimore in the over, as is the money. Now,

1314
01:01:57,520 --> 01:02:00,520
Speaker 4: the money's on Baltimore, but it's split in on the total.

1315
01:02:00,560 --> 01:02:01,439
Speaker 4: It's about fifty fifty.

1316
01:02:01,600 --> 01:02:02,080
Speaker 1: What do you got?

1317
01:02:02,640 --> 01:02:07,440
Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you. No

1318
01:02:07,600 --> 01:02:10,880
Speaker 2: role feel here, but I am personally as a better

1319
01:02:11,520 --> 01:02:14,440
Speaker 2: I am rooting for the Ravens to lose and the

1320
01:02:14,520 --> 01:02:17,000
Speaker 2: Bills to win by one hundred and fifty five, because

1321
01:02:17,040 --> 01:02:20,080
Speaker 2: then we will get our classic car ball spot next week.

1322
01:02:20,120 --> 01:02:22,720
Speaker 2: Get home where the Ravens the home horrorball is. A

1323
01:02:22,760 --> 01:02:25,160
Speaker 2: home dog is almost as free money she can get.

1324
01:02:25,840 --> 01:02:27,200
Speaker 2: They'll probably still be a homebog. I don't want as

1325
01:02:27,240 --> 01:02:30,240
Speaker 2: many points as possible, but Ravens. There's a lot of

1326
01:02:30,280 --> 01:02:32,439
Speaker 2: uncertainty in this game with the Ravens injuries. I still

1327
01:02:32,440 --> 01:02:34,280
Speaker 2: don't know if Samley's gonna play. I still don't know

1328
01:02:34,320 --> 01:02:36,720
Speaker 2: Dobbins's gonna play. They have no they have no running

1329
01:02:36,760 --> 01:02:39,480
Speaker 2: game without Dobbins. The secondary is a ton of injuries.

1330
01:02:39,800 --> 01:02:41,640
Speaker 2: Once their secondary gets healthy, it's one of the best

1331
01:02:41,680 --> 01:02:43,960
Speaker 2: in the NFL. But the offense last week showed me

1332
01:02:44,040 --> 01:02:46,320
Speaker 2: what I needed to see that the Ravens are capable

1333
01:02:46,360 --> 01:02:49,920
Speaker 2: of making a run with Lamar Jackson facing the blitz

1334
01:02:50,000 --> 01:02:52,440
Speaker 2: and teams sticking to have just figured out Lamar Jackson.

1335
01:02:52,440 --> 01:02:54,040
Speaker 2: By the way, first time he ever had one hundred

1336
01:02:54,040 --> 01:02:55,880
Speaker 2: and fifty yards and three touchdowns in a game against them.

1337
01:02:55,920 --> 01:02:58,520
Speaker 2: Let's get in the first half. Last week it's against

1338
01:02:58,680 --> 01:03:00,560
Speaker 2: the Dolphins. Seem that he couldn't even get first down

1339
01:03:00,720 --> 01:03:03,800
Speaker 2: against They have no clue what to call last year,

1340
01:03:04,160 --> 01:03:06,560
Speaker 2: it's a bad spot for the Ravens off a heartbreaking loss.

1341
01:03:07,080 --> 01:03:10,920
Speaker 2: Bill's on deck at home. Do they respond or do

1342
01:03:11,040 --> 01:03:12,960
Speaker 2: they Are they a little letdown? Distracted? I don't know

1343
01:03:13,040 --> 01:03:15,480
Speaker 2: this one's looks about right line should be three.

1344
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:18,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't really got anything for that one. Rams

1345
01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:22,520
Speaker 4: at the Cardinals. The Cardinals are three and a half

1346
01:03:22,560 --> 01:03:25,600
Speaker 4: point dogs at home. The total is forty eight and

1347
01:03:25,680 --> 01:03:26,000
Speaker 4: a half.

1348
01:03:26,080 --> 01:03:29,080
Speaker 1: Sharps are on Arizona and the under as is the

1349
01:03:29,320 --> 01:03:31,040
Speaker 1: money anything here.

1350
01:03:31,800 --> 01:03:33,760
Speaker 2: Low on both these teams. I'd probably think the Rams

1351
01:03:33,920 --> 01:03:36,280
Speaker 2: gets the three. McVeigh owns Cliff for what it's worth,

1352
01:03:36,360 --> 01:03:37,800
Speaker 2: nine to one and one against the spread ten and

1353
01:03:37,880 --> 01:03:40,840
Speaker 2: one straight up. I'm a little concerned about It's a

1354
01:03:40,920 --> 01:03:43,280
Speaker 2: little weird dynamic here is maybe you could add some

1355
01:03:43,360 --> 01:03:46,960
Speaker 2: insight from a fantasy perspective, but the Rams secondary is

1356
01:03:47,960 --> 01:03:51,120
Speaker 2: destroyed right now at corner, like Troy Hill is out,

1357
01:03:51,720 --> 01:03:55,160
Speaker 2: his backup looks like he's going to be out. And

1358
01:03:55,240 --> 01:03:57,439
Speaker 2: you're playing a Cardinals team that's gonna spread you out

1359
01:03:57,760 --> 01:04:00,360
Speaker 2: with a bunch of receivers, but they don't have their

1360
01:04:00,440 --> 01:04:04,320
Speaker 2: full they don't have their full arsenal receivers. They still

1361
01:04:04,360 --> 01:04:06,800
Speaker 2: have some capable guys, so that might cause some problems

1362
01:04:07,400 --> 01:04:09,760
Speaker 2: for the Rams. But the Rams and mcday seem to

1363
01:04:09,920 --> 01:04:15,080
Speaker 2: know how to scout and attack this Cardinals team. And

1364
01:04:15,160 --> 01:04:18,240
Speaker 2: I think this Cardinals team, it's a really poor roster

1365
01:04:19,080 --> 01:04:23,280
Speaker 2: and they just caught the Raiders snapping last night, so

1366
01:04:23,520 --> 01:04:27,280
Speaker 2: there could be some merry magic could be more Stafford turnovers.

1367
01:04:27,560 --> 01:04:29,440
Speaker 2: That offensive line is still a mess. I don't know.

1368
01:04:29,640 --> 01:04:31,400
Speaker 2: I look at the Rams at three at three and

1369
01:04:31,440 --> 01:04:32,840
Speaker 2: a half pass.

1370
01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:35,880
Speaker 1: I think Doors will have another good gameer boy.

1371
01:04:36,600 --> 01:04:39,600
Speaker 5: Hey, sorry to interrupt. This is Matt the producer. Just

1372
01:04:39,680 --> 01:04:43,160
Speaker 5: want to remind any new listeners that Stucky and our

1373
01:04:43,360 --> 01:04:47,280
Speaker 5: college podcast crew has long been the champions of wide

1374
01:04:47,280 --> 01:04:50,680
Speaker 5: receiver Greg Dortsch. In fact, we even created this segment

1375
01:04:50,840 --> 01:04:53,920
Speaker 5: dedicated just to his highlights. Greg Dortsch, if you're listening,

1376
01:04:54,240 --> 01:04:55,960
Speaker 5: we still love you here at the Action Network and

1377
01:04:56,040 --> 01:04:57,240
Speaker 5: we see you shining.

1378
01:04:58,360 --> 01:05:00,920
Speaker 4: The most electrifying play you're in football.

1379
01:05:01,200 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 3: Guess who Greg Torch understand? Greg George is a big play.

1380
01:05:05,200 --> 01:05:08,400
Speaker 3: Gud George beats the punter maund the middle. It's Dorch

1381
01:05:08,600 --> 01:05:13,120
Speaker 3: and he's touchdown. The Magician hasn't done it again.

1382
01:05:13,280 --> 01:05:20,480
Speaker 1: The Greg Georch is something else. Don't forget about Greg Dorch. Oh,

1383
01:05:20,960 --> 01:05:22,240
Speaker 1: good George.

1384
01:05:22,320 --> 01:05:25,560
Speaker 4: He is leading the Cardinals wide receivers and tight end

1385
01:05:25,680 --> 01:05:27,760
Speaker 4: in yards per route against zone. And that's the one

1386
01:05:27,800 --> 01:05:28,960
Speaker 4: thing we kind of know what the Rams are gonna

1387
01:05:28,960 --> 01:05:30,040
Speaker 4: do in this and they're gonna play a ton of

1388
01:05:30,080 --> 01:05:32,880
Speaker 4: zone as they usually do. And also because you have

1389
01:05:32,920 --> 01:05:36,160
Speaker 4: to keep eyes on Murray, as you know everyone was

1390
01:05:36,200 --> 01:05:36,640
Speaker 4: reminded of.

1391
01:05:37,120 --> 01:05:38,680
Speaker 1: I think the line is kind of right for what

1392
01:05:38,760 --> 01:05:39,080
Speaker 1: it's worth.

1393
01:05:39,120 --> 01:05:42,520
Speaker 4: Divisional dogs fifty percent ats or below in weeks two

1394
01:05:42,600 --> 01:05:44,840
Speaker 4: through four are eighty forty four and four against the

1395
01:05:44,840 --> 01:05:48,000
Speaker 4: spread sixty five percent since five. But then on the

1396
01:05:48,040 --> 01:05:50,160
Speaker 4: other side of that, you got the fact that Cliff

1397
01:05:50,200 --> 01:05:52,240
Speaker 4: really has struggled against McVey.

1398
01:05:52,320 --> 01:05:55,840
Speaker 1: So this was a pass for me. Philly Washington, the.

1399
01:05:57,360 --> 01:05:59,240
Speaker 4: Eagles are favored by six and a half on the road,

1400
01:05:59,280 --> 01:06:01,680
Speaker 4: the totals down forty seven and a half, Sharks hit

1401
01:06:01,720 --> 01:06:04,960
Speaker 4: Philadelphia and the under Both of those lines went in

1402
01:06:05,080 --> 01:06:05,760
Speaker 4: that direction.

1403
01:06:05,880 --> 01:06:08,000
Speaker 1: Anything here, Yeah, I.

1404
01:06:07,960 --> 01:06:09,560
Speaker 2: Think it was value on Washington. I don't know if

1405
01:06:09,800 --> 01:06:11,400
Speaker 2: I think it's a seven, it's a grab. I don't

1406
01:06:11,440 --> 01:06:14,440
Speaker 2: care about any matchup issues or how good Philadelphia is

1407
01:06:14,760 --> 01:06:18,360
Speaker 2: that might be. This is a line that has gone

1408
01:06:18,400 --> 01:06:20,600
Speaker 2: up five to six points from last week. But I

1409
01:06:20,720 --> 01:06:22,800
Speaker 2: expected Philadelphia to win that game. It was a really

1410
01:06:22,840 --> 01:06:25,880
Speaker 2: good matchup for them. And look, Kirk Cousins just shipped

1411
01:06:25,880 --> 01:06:27,840
Speaker 2: the bed. Let's let's be honest. He was throwing it

1412
01:06:27,920 --> 01:06:29,640
Speaker 2: right to some Eagles, which made that score a little

1413
01:06:29,640 --> 01:06:31,960
Speaker 2: bit more lopsidt of Eagles offense was tremendous. I don't

1414
01:06:31,960 --> 01:06:34,760
Speaker 2: really trust the Washington defense. Do I trust Carson Wentz

1415
01:06:34,760 --> 01:06:37,080
Speaker 2: against the Eagles zone not to make mistakes and go

1416
01:06:37,160 --> 01:06:39,640
Speaker 2: down the field. You know efficiently what you have to

1417
01:06:39,680 --> 01:06:42,320
Speaker 2: do without making mistakes against the Eagles. I don't know.

1418
01:06:42,640 --> 01:06:46,240
Speaker 2: But it's big overreaction. If against the seven, had to

1419
01:06:46,240 --> 01:06:48,000
Speaker 2: take seven, I'll even think about six and a half

1420
01:06:48,440 --> 01:06:50,360
Speaker 2: road favorites. By the way, I have three plus in

1421
01:06:50,400 --> 01:06:53,760
Speaker 2: September Division games over the past twenty years thirty nine percent.

1422
01:06:54,240 --> 01:06:57,480
Speaker 2: And I could go on and on about the Eagles.

1423
01:06:57,920 --> 01:07:00,600
Speaker 2: That some of the overreactions and for two and o

1424
01:07:00,760 --> 01:07:03,360
Speaker 2: teams here we've covered all that. This is just an

1425
01:07:03,400 --> 01:07:06,400
Speaker 2: overreaction in my opinion. Now there's some money that drives it.

1426
01:07:06,760 --> 01:07:09,040
Speaker 2: Some people think that the Eagles are clearly the best

1427
01:07:09,040 --> 01:07:10,720
Speaker 2: team in the NFC. Maybe they will be, maybe they'll

1428
01:07:10,760 --> 01:07:13,080
Speaker 2: end up being this good, but it's still a division

1429
01:07:13,160 --> 01:07:14,960
Speaker 2: game on the road. You'll get a you'll get a

1430
01:07:14,960 --> 01:07:17,760
Speaker 2: great effort here from Washington. It's Washington or nothing.

1431
01:07:18,480 --> 01:07:20,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I make the line like four four

1432
01:07:20,200 --> 01:07:22,960
Speaker 4: and a half, but not betting on Carson Wentz and

1433
01:07:23,800 --> 01:07:28,120
Speaker 4: uh Philadelphia they do have some advantages, you know, matchup wise,

1434
01:07:28,480 --> 01:07:33,000
Speaker 4: Darius Sway owns Terry McLaurin, and also you have Chase

1435
01:07:33,080 --> 01:07:36,080
Speaker 4: Rouli in the center for Washington is out. Not not

1436
01:07:36,160 --> 01:07:39,000
Speaker 4: an ideal defensive line to lose your center who is

1437
01:07:39,040 --> 01:07:41,840
Speaker 4: great a top five so uh, not not the greatest spot.

1438
01:07:42,040 --> 01:07:44,080
Speaker 1: But I do agree. I think that the line has

1439
01:07:44,160 --> 01:07:47,760
Speaker 1: kind of gotten. I'm just not doing it.

1440
01:07:47,920 --> 01:07:50,680
Speaker 4: Not doing it like I watched everyone go down in

1441
01:07:50,760 --> 01:07:53,240
Speaker 4: flames with Wentz last year, and uh, that's something I'm

1442
01:07:53,240 --> 01:07:53,520
Speaker 4: gona do.

1443
01:07:53,760 --> 01:07:55,480
Speaker 1: So let's just jump into the Survivor and get out

1444
01:07:55,480 --> 01:07:55,680
Speaker 1: of here.

1445
01:08:02,040 --> 01:08:04,520
Speaker 3: The Survivor Pool pick of the week.

1446
01:08:06,320 --> 01:08:08,680
Speaker 1: All right, So, uh, this is a really tough one

1447
01:08:08,720 --> 01:08:11,680
Speaker 1: for me. So you're gonna go in Minnesota, right, Yeah?

1448
01:08:11,760 --> 01:08:13,120
Speaker 2: I mean some people were telling me you just go

1449
01:08:13,160 --> 01:08:17,240
Speaker 2: to Cleveland. I try to avoid Thursdays when possible, especially

1450
01:08:17,360 --> 01:08:19,280
Speaker 2: in this game against Tomlin is a dog in a

1451
01:08:19,360 --> 01:08:22,800
Speaker 2: division game with twenty five million hour wins. I've talked

1452
01:08:22,800 --> 01:08:24,880
Speaker 2: to some people that are close with the Browns, by

1453
01:08:24,920 --> 01:08:27,559
Speaker 2: the way, and it says a really fragile team right now,

1454
01:08:27,640 --> 01:08:29,800
Speaker 2: So keep that in mind if they lose this game. Yeah,

1455
01:08:29,840 --> 01:08:31,040
Speaker 2: So I'm not going Browns By the way, you have

1456
01:08:31,080 --> 01:08:33,320
Speaker 2: a you have an information disadvantage if you go with

1457
01:08:33,400 --> 01:08:37,639
Speaker 2: a Thursday game like Giselle makes Brady retire. You know Rogers.

1458
01:08:38,040 --> 01:08:41,560
Speaker 2: Rogers goes out into the jungle and does ayahuasca the

1459
01:08:41,600 --> 01:08:43,320
Speaker 2: gay and he's not He's out for the game, So

1460
01:08:43,560 --> 01:08:45,599
Speaker 2: you don't know. There's things that could happen that just oh, now,

1461
01:08:45,640 --> 01:08:48,720
Speaker 2: I'm playing this team a lot of coin flips. So yeah,

1462
01:08:48,760 --> 01:08:50,559
Speaker 2: I'm very confident in the Viking is getting it done

1463
01:08:50,600 --> 01:08:53,599
Speaker 2: at home at least outright. Even if the Lions get

1464
01:08:53,720 --> 01:08:56,360
Speaker 2: in the back door here, I'm still safe. I think

1465
01:08:56,400 --> 01:08:58,839
Speaker 2: they will have an even if this gets into the shootout,

1466
01:08:59,080 --> 01:09:01,040
Speaker 2: I think they will have one more answer than the line,

1467
01:09:01,080 --> 01:09:03,200
Speaker 2: So I'm going Vikings. I also like, from a game

1468
01:09:03,280 --> 01:09:05,240
Speaker 2: theater perspective that I don't think a ton of people

1469
01:09:05,240 --> 01:09:08,479
Speaker 2: will pick it, So I think this week could be

1470
01:09:08,720 --> 01:09:12,479
Speaker 2: like a slaughterhouse. Hopefully I don't get slaughtered, but I

1471
01:09:12,600 --> 01:09:15,280
Speaker 2: could see, especially if Herbert doesn't players banged up, but

1472
01:09:15,280 --> 01:09:17,439
Speaker 2: I can see a lot of people going down. I

1473
01:09:17,520 --> 01:09:18,960
Speaker 2: think a lot of people are gonna de fault to

1474
01:09:19,040 --> 01:09:21,320
Speaker 2: the Bengals here. And just because it's like oh, with

1475
01:09:21,400 --> 01:09:23,120
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl, they can't go on. In three, I

1476
01:09:23,160 --> 01:09:25,320
Speaker 2: can see them dropping this game. So I'm gonna put

1477
01:09:25,360 --> 01:09:27,280
Speaker 2: my faith in Kirk Cousins. And I don't think a

1478
01:09:27,320 --> 01:09:29,479
Speaker 2: lot of other people want to against you know, the

1479
01:09:29,600 --> 01:09:32,400
Speaker 2: upstart lines. But that's where I decided I'm rolling.

1480
01:09:32,800 --> 01:09:34,559
Speaker 1: This is tough. I'm gonna make my pick on the spot.

1481
01:09:34,720 --> 01:09:37,080
Speaker 4: I think I'm gonna go the Bengals here because just

1482
01:09:37,320 --> 01:09:40,880
Speaker 4: gut feel I see more danger in this Lions Vikings game.

1483
01:09:41,240 --> 01:09:45,280
Speaker 4: You know, so Dan Campbell, hey, like I was always

1484
01:09:45,320 --> 01:09:47,000
Speaker 4: high in the Lions, though, you know, like not because

1485
01:09:47,040 --> 01:09:49,360
Speaker 4: of hard knocks or anything like that. I just think

1486
01:09:49,439 --> 01:09:51,879
Speaker 4: that I just think that the Lions could play offense,

1487
01:09:52,240 --> 01:09:54,080
Speaker 4: and that's kind of the Viking strength. And so I

1488
01:09:54,600 --> 01:09:57,320
Speaker 4: just see like there's a shootout whereas like the Bengals

1489
01:09:57,400 --> 01:09:59,760
Speaker 4: can also get into a shootout. But number one, you

1490
01:09:59,800 --> 01:10:01,920
Speaker 4: got the bounced back spot. But number ten, they've had

1491
01:10:01,960 --> 01:10:04,800
Speaker 4: that for a second week, so not guaranteed obviously. But

1492
01:10:05,320 --> 01:10:07,120
Speaker 4: number two, you can kind of fuck a lot of

1493
01:10:07,120 --> 01:10:09,720
Speaker 4: people that already got eliminated with their Bengals by using

1494
01:10:09,760 --> 01:10:11,920
Speaker 4: them last week and just keep going with that. And three,

1495
01:10:12,640 --> 01:10:14,479
Speaker 4: I feel like it's a big revenge spot for the Bengals,

1496
01:10:14,479 --> 01:10:17,400
Speaker 4: because remember the Jets upset them with Mike White at

1497
01:10:17,479 --> 01:10:20,920
Speaker 4: quarterback last year. So I think you're gonna get peak

1498
01:10:20,960 --> 01:10:23,519
Speaker 4: Bengals effort, kind of like Colts in this Chiefs game,

1499
01:10:23,560 --> 01:10:25,599
Speaker 4: Like you're just gonna get peak effort. Now, I would

1500
01:10:25,640 --> 01:10:27,840
Speaker 4: never pick the Colts, but I wouldn't take the Chiefs either,

1501
01:10:28,800 --> 01:10:31,760
Speaker 4: But yeah, I'm gonna go Bengals, so at least not

1502
01:10:32,040 --> 01:10:34,760
Speaker 4: hopefully both one of us moves on to be four

1503
01:10:34,760 --> 01:10:36,400
Speaker 4: if we too, if we choose the same team, then

1504
01:10:36,560 --> 01:10:37,599
Speaker 4: you could just both go down.

1505
01:10:37,680 --> 01:10:39,040
Speaker 1: So give me the Bengals.

1506
01:10:39,680 --> 01:10:45,640
Speaker 2: The Cincinnati Bengals came roaring back. All right.

1507
01:10:45,720 --> 01:10:48,439
Speaker 4: That's gonna wrap it up for the week three Action

1508
01:10:48,560 --> 01:10:51,320
Speaker 4: Network podcast presented by FANDU. As a reminder, we've got

1509
01:10:51,360 --> 01:10:54,479
Speaker 4: four weekly episodes on the channel, dropping all season long. Mondays,

1510
01:10:54,560 --> 01:10:57,840
Speaker 4: we have our NFL recap and Monday Night Football Preview. Wednesdays,

1511
01:10:57,960 --> 01:11:01,760
Speaker 4: Kurner and I discussed our weekly player projections. Thursday, you

1512
01:11:01,880 --> 01:11:04,799
Speaker 4: got this episode Stucky and I, and every Friday morning

1513
01:11:04,960 --> 01:11:08,040
Speaker 4: we have a thirty minute NFL Best Bets episode with

1514
01:11:08,200 --> 01:11:12,400
Speaker 4: host Brendan Glasshien, joined by experts like Luke Swain, A

1515
01:11:12,479 --> 01:11:16,320
Speaker 4: g A Vegas Refund and Joe Delant, Brandon Anderson. You

1516
01:11:16,360 --> 01:11:20,080
Speaker 4: can find Stuck on Twitter at Stucky Too, you can

1517
01:11:20,160 --> 01:11:22,120
Speaker 4: find me at Chris Raybond, and you can find us

1518
01:11:22,560 --> 01:11:24,760
Speaker 4: at those same handles on the free award winning Action

1519
01:11:24,960 --> 01:11:27,000
Speaker 4: Network app, where you can follow all of our bets,

1520
01:11:27,120 --> 01:11:30,240
Speaker 4: even get alerts for them as they drop, and track

1521
01:11:30,280 --> 01:11:32,599
Speaker 4: yours as well. So check that out, and of course

1522
01:11:32,680 --> 01:11:33,840
Speaker 4: checkout Action network dot com.

1523
01:11:34,080 --> 01:11:34,960
Speaker 1: Good luck this weekend.

1524
01:11:35,400 --> 01:11:37,559
Speaker 2: Let's get dish money school