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Speaker 1: Cameron brand is with this, director of research at EPF farm.

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Speaker 1: So much to talk about China, Japan, rishis Sum. But

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Speaker 1: let's start with the markets and the Fed. The two,

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Speaker 1: the markets and the Fed, seem to have come around

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Speaker 1: now to the realization that front loading, Cameron, which the

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Speaker 1: FED says it has been doing, is not by definition

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Speaker 1: the whole Tamali. Uh. They're they're ten days away from

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Speaker 1: three seventy to four hundred basis points of front loading.

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Speaker 1: The mid in the final stages are nine obviously implied

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Speaker 1: in that is a question that this is the phase

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Speaker 1: that we're moving into. Do you support that, Cameron, Um, Well,

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Speaker 1: certainly the consensus is that sort of four twenty five

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Speaker 1: for fifty basis points is the peak UM. And you

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Speaker 1: do have to add in the running down of the

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Speaker 1: balance sheet, which I think is being slightly underestimated in

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Speaker 1: terms of its tightening impact. UM. So I certainly think

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Speaker 1: that the Fed is anxious to pause UM. And if

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Speaker 1: inflation numbers give them any reasonable room to sit back

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Speaker 1: and admire their handiwork, I think they'll take it. Cameron.

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Speaker 1: I mean, but that would again, that would be confusing

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Speaker 1: full market participants. I mean, that would represent in effect

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Speaker 1: a U turn. Um again. Um. You know, at the

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Speaker 1: moment of the Fed's inflation fighting mandate is front and center,

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Speaker 1: But the FED has a number I think of implicit

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Speaker 1: mandates as well, which is sort of taken on in

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Speaker 1: the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, and those include

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Speaker 1: market stability and a fairly high level of employment. So

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Speaker 1: I think the moment that it feels it has inflation

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Speaker 1: under heading in the right to direction, uh, that it

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Speaker 1: will focus a bit more on those other aspects of

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Speaker 1: the the US economy, Um Cameron. When we look at

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Speaker 1: the treasury market, it does seem as that there could

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Speaker 1: be some nasty current swelling. We've got data shape, market

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Speaker 1: liquidity is recently deteriorated to the lows of March. We've

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Speaker 1: got by demanded auctions weekly and perhaps more strikingly, these

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Speaker 1: trends promptly Joannet Yellen to take the unusual step of

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Speaker 1: admitting in public that she's worried about a loss of

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Speaker 1: adequate liquidity in the market. Now, all this is pointing

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Speaker 1: to some dislocation. Gives a sense of what you're seeing. Um. Well,

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Speaker 1: first off, I think that's right that that you know,

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Speaker 1: both the public and the private pension funds are less

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Speaker 1: likely to be providing consistent support going forward. So what

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Speaker 1: we've been seeing is definite uncertainty and pulling back at

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Speaker 1: the longer end of the curve, but actually a lot

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Speaker 1: of appetite for short term bond funds. Um. You know, people,

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Speaker 1: yield starved investors are are finally being able to tap

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Speaker 1: into something that gives them a little bit more than

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Speaker 1: a few basis points. So it's being a slightly bifurcated

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Speaker 1: market at the moment um, but I expected to be

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Speaker 1: fairly bumpy for a while. We mentioned that we might

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Speaker 1: talk a little bit about Richie Sunac in the UK.

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Speaker 1: It seems that Marcuts see him as a stabilizing force.

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Speaker 1: UK bonds had some very big games today driving yields down. Um.

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Speaker 1: Is that an opportunity that's that is is budding? Um? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean the sell off there I think was exaggerated. Um,

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Speaker 1: when you look at Britain's profile compared to say it's

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Speaker 1: Peers incontinental Europe, it's not as if it looks that terrible. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know that. That said, I think Britain is going

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Speaker 1: to struggle to regain equilibrium for some time. It's borrowing

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Speaker 1: requirements have really been expanding at a rapid clip. I

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Speaker 1: am thinking sort of eight percent of g D eight percent,

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Speaker 1: uh sort of? Uh so trade and current account deficits.

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Speaker 1: So um okay, yeah, yeah, I just said, you know, okay,

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Speaker 1: you know, we've been distracted. Investors and the like have

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Speaker 1: been distracted by the political circus there. But you know,

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Speaker 1: you look at the outlook and it's not good. Inflation

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Speaker 1: at forty year highs, you've got soaring interest rates, you've

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Speaker 1: got depress consumer sentiment, and but soon I could potentially

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Speaker 1: return to austerity here as well, says the dollar at

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Speaker 1: the moment actually overvalue against the Shall I say the pound?

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Speaker 1: Is it overvalued? Um, it's certainly. I think has further

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Speaker 1: to drop, especially against the dollar. Uh. You know, as

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Speaker 1: we said, I think, you know, US monetary tightening may

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Speaker 1: begin to slow as we get into early next year,

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Speaker 1: but it still has a bit further to go. Uh

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Speaker 1: And uh, you know, if you're looking at the relative

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Speaker 1: strengths of the economy, there's no doubt in my mind

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Speaker 1: which you're going to choose if you have the option. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: One of the other themes highlighted today that Doug mentioned

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Speaker 1: was that summer saying, like Marko Klanovitch that the selloff

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Speaker 1: in China that it could be an opportunity, But you

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Speaker 1: do have to ask the question whether or not it's

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Speaker 1: different this time the president He's going to be there

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Speaker 1: a long time and this campaign to reign in the

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Speaker 1: private sector is probably not going to go away. No,

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Speaker 1: I don't think it is. And certainly we've seen surprisingly

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Speaker 1: robust was the dedicated China equity funds pretty much all

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Speaker 1: of this year, with the recent flows being driven by

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Speaker 1: the hope that once he had consolidated his power at

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Speaker 1: this Congress, that he would be much more comfortable, you know,

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Speaker 1: taking his foot off the COVID restrictions. Um, you know

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Speaker 1: that that said, I agree, and there seemed to be

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Speaker 1: a significant numbers of investors are also seeking China exposure

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Speaker 1: because they think the sell off has been overdone, and

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Speaker 1: there's also what we're seeing a strong domestic support. Chinese

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Speaker 1: investors don't really have many other options at the moment

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Speaker 1: given the vicious camera estate thank you camera camera brand there.

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Speaker 1: So we got type of director of research at EPF

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Speaker 1: getting the latest on the market