Speaker 1: The Vine this week on Prime Cuts, John Middelkoff on
Speaker 1: NFL free agency, Michael mulva Hill, who is fascinating for
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Analytics and insights. You'll want to listen on
Speaker 1: Caitlin Clark star power in my top takes of the week.
Speaker 1: All right, here we go, semi instant reaction. I had
Speaker 1: to speak to a USC grad class today, so I
Speaker 1: was really interesting kids and did that for an hour,
Speaker 1: a little over an hour. So I came out of
Speaker 1: the class and I heard the news the Denver Broncos
Speaker 1: had released Russell Wilson, which saves them thirty seven million,
Speaker 1: but they still have about eighty five million in dead
Speaker 1: cap money, which is like double the most ever. And
Speaker 1: I think that was I believe that was Matt Ryan
Speaker 1: Falcons when they moved off him. So you're going to
Speaker 1: have to hit on some draft picks the only way
Speaker 1: to ease the pain. And remember the NFL did come in,
Speaker 1: gave everybody a thirty million more dollars in cap space.
Speaker 1: That hell, and hitting on four draft picks that could
Speaker 1: players start. That helps. But for a year it's going
Speaker 1: to be pretty ugly. Let's first start about blame. Who
Speaker 1: to blame? Well, Sean Payton needs to win games, and
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson wants to find a landing spot. Those guys
Speaker 1: are not in the blame game. They're in the turn
Speaker 1: of the page game, and I don't blame them. Their
Speaker 1: energy is going to be Russell Wilson wants to find
Speaker 1: a better team. I think Pittsburgh's perfect. You cannot be
Speaker 1: in a division with Joe Burrow twice a year, Kevin
Speaker 1: Stefanski and DeShawn Watson twice a year, and Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: and John Harbaugh twice a year with Kenny Pickett, can't go.
Speaker 1: Look at the Vegas odds Steelers near the bottom of
Speaker 1: the NFL. I think you roll the dice. You go
Speaker 1: with Russell Wilson. His maturity and devotion and commitment is
Speaker 1: what the Steelers need. Offensively, it's they got some receivers
Speaker 1: who I really like, but they're a little young, a
Speaker 1: little immature. They're ready to go, and their offensive line
Speaker 1: is okay, not special, and Russell Wilson is still mobile
Speaker 1: enough to avoid some of that stuff. So I think
Speaker 1: it works. I think I think the culture and the
Speaker 1: person ellen Pittsburgh is good. They don't have a trigger guy.
Speaker 1: They don't have a quarterback. And in the AFC, you're
Speaker 1: not going anywhere unless you have a star, even if
Speaker 1: it's a declining star. You got to have a star
Speaker 1: to win games. So I think Russell Wilson will do
Speaker 1: just fine. Denver's gonna probably go get out a JJ
Speaker 1: McCarthy or a bow Nicks. I will tell you Denver schedule.
Speaker 1: They get the NFC South, that's the good news. The
Speaker 1: bad news they also face the AFC North. So they
Speaker 1: are at road games next year for Denver beyond facing Harbaugh,
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert and the Chargers, beyond facing Mahomes and Andy
Speaker 1: Reid and the Chiefs. They go to Baltimore. Yeah, Raven's
Speaker 1: pretty good. At home, they go to Joe Berwin, Cincinnati,
Speaker 1: two New Orleans and Derek Carr, to Tampa and Baker
Speaker 1: Mayfield two Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, and to Seattle.
Speaker 1: That ain't great for a rookie quarterback. Now the home schedule,
Speaker 1: they get Atlanta Carolina at home, but Pittsburgh Cleveland Colts
Speaker 1: at home. Now they have the schedule. They don't know
Speaker 1: when the dates are, but those are some tough road games.
Speaker 1: Those are harsh environments. Going toe to toe with really
Speaker 1: good quarterbacks in many instances, Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow,
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson. There's some l's there, Mahomes once, Justin Herbert
Speaker 1: once with Harbaugh. You know, I just I think maybe
Speaker 1: I wasn't like this in my twenties. But as I've aged,
Speaker 1: pointing fingers doesn't solve anything. Listen, you want to point fingers,
Speaker 1: you could point to the Broncos GM George Payton. He
Speaker 1: gave up two first two second round picks. I think
Speaker 1: he gave up three players and maybe a fifth round pick.
Speaker 1: He also hired Nat Hackett, and that was a complete disaster.
Speaker 1: Many believe he hired Nathaniel Hackett because he tried to
Speaker 1: get Aaron Rodgers and when he couldn't rustle in, Nat
Speaker 1: Hackett's off as just didn't work. So he has created
Speaker 1: eighty five million a dead cap. He gave up a
Speaker 1: lot of draft capital, he picked the wrong head coach,
Speaker 1: and Sean Payton's got to pick up the pieces from there.
Speaker 1: But you know, I don't think George Peyton and I
Speaker 1: and I do respect the job he's done mostly, but
Speaker 1: you can only have so many big whiffs. And Hackett
Speaker 1: and Russell. That's a big whiff coach quarterback league whift
Speaker 1: on both so and I don't think Russell would have
Speaker 1: You know, people can get all over Sean Payton this thing.
Speaker 1: Sean and Russell were not going to work. But what
Speaker 1: coach would you really need to work? I mean, after
Speaker 1: Nat Hackett bombed, who wanted the job? Ask yourself you
Speaker 1: would have a rookie coach? Would he have worked with
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson? I mean, the personnel is what it is
Speaker 1: based on what you were paying Russell Wilson and what
Speaker 1: you surrendered in the draft. There were some limitations here.
Speaker 1: So I think Sean Payton will figure it out. But
Speaker 1: I think if Russell Wilson went to the Steelers, he'll
Speaker 1: have a better year than JJ McCarthy or bow next
Speaker 1: with the Broncos. I don't think there's any question about that.
Speaker 1: So year two feels like, you know, Sean Payton just
Speaker 1: getting out from under Russell Wilson the player. Now he
Speaker 1: has to spend another year getting out from under the
Speaker 1: dead cap hit in a division with Justin Herbert Harbaugh,
Speaker 1: Pat Mahomes, Andy Reid. That is a big, big hill climb.
Speaker 1: But I've never felt and I said this. I know
Speaker 1: Sean Peyton well enough, after twenty interviews with him and
Speaker 1: a dinner with him and spending time with him and
Speaker 1: talking to him, I just never felt he and Russ.
Speaker 1: That's why I thought it was strange when he took
Speaker 1: the job. I just I didn't think it was a job.
Speaker 1: He wanted the charger's job initially, but I think the
Speaker 1: Denver owners have a lot of cash, came in, wrote
Speaker 1: a big check, and it's hard to look the other way.
Speaker 1: I get it, but this was never going to be easy.
Speaker 1: Sean is a very direct, very authentic, very opinionated person,
Speaker 1: and you know Russell is hopelessly optimistic, and he has
Speaker 1: a declining quarterback, and there are some psychological factors when
Speaker 1: a quarterback gets older. He wants his money, he wants
Speaker 1: his protection. And I don't think Russell ever felt supported
Speaker 1: by Nat Hackett's incompetence or Sean Payton's brewed lawnesty. And
Speaker 1: so I didn't think it was a good fit. So
Speaker 1: let's move on and start over. I still think Russell
Speaker 1: Wilson has several good years in him. He's not a disaster,
Speaker 1: he's not washed. He just needs the right pieces and
Speaker 1: you know, I've been saying this for years. Pittsburgh's personnels.
Speaker 1: I mean, they have all the things you need. They
Speaker 1: have weapons on the outside. Offensively, they have a run game,
Speaker 1: and they have speed on the perimeter. They have a
Speaker 1: pass rusher, they have playmakers on defense. They're not great
Speaker 1: at corner. Nobody outside of maybe the Jets and the
Speaker 1: Chiefs is great at corner. We have a corner shortage
Speaker 1: in the NFL, and elite corner shortage. So and once again,
Speaker 1: it's a great NFL draft for wide receivers. It's like
Speaker 1: the fourth straight draft, great wide receiver draft, not a
Speaker 1: great corner draft. So that you just that problem will
Speaker 1: be exacerbated. You're just gonna have more great receivers and
Speaker 1: fewer great corners. But I tend to think we can
Speaker 1: sit and point fingers at this stuff. Denver's in the AFC.
Speaker 1: They gonna go find their next quarterback star. And history
Speaker 1: tells you if there's five quarterbacks taken in the first round,
Speaker 1: one's going to be a hit, two are gonna work
Speaker 1: kind of, one's gonna be a bust, and one or
Speaker 1: two won't be as they won't get a second contract.
Speaker 1: And so you know, I'll say this, I think outside
Speaker 1: of Caleb Williams, the rest of these quarterbacks will be
Speaker 1: as good as the place they land. So I think
Speaker 1: if it's bo Nix or JJ McCarthy, I think both
Speaker 1: can succeed with Sean Payton both. I think JJ McCarthy's
Speaker 1: got a better arm than bow Knicks. I think bo
Speaker 1: Nix has far more college starts and is more accurate
Speaker 1: than JJ McCarthy. But it just depends on what you like.
Speaker 1: JJ's a little taller, I think, in my opinion, bon
Speaker 1: Nicks is. I feel like he's kind of elusive the
Speaker 1: deep ball. I take JJ McCarthy accuracy, I take bo
Speaker 1: Nicks experience. I'd take Bo next. I think JJ McCarthy
Speaker 1: may have a higher ceiling. Bnick's a little lower ceiling,
Speaker 1: But it could be that bow Nex has a higher
Speaker 1: floor than JJ McCarthy. So I think both those guys
Speaker 1: that would be a perfect place to land. I don't
Speaker 1: think Michael Pennix, though I love the way he throws,
Speaker 1: I don't think Denver would take the risk on him
Speaker 1: being his injury history. They got to get this thing right,
Speaker 1: and I just feel like bo Nix works for that offense. Accuracy, experience,
Speaker 1: kid that's been around. He carried Oregon at times, whereas
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy felt sometimes not to be unfair, but like
Speaker 1: he was carried by Michigan's O line, run game coaching
Speaker 1: and dominating defense. So I think that's the direction they'll go.
Speaker 1: Jarrett Stidham can start for the time being. He's capable,
Speaker 1: he's okay. That's obviously not the future. It does matter, though,
Speaker 1: that the rookie quarterback is going to come into a
Speaker 1: system where you know, they pay like twelve million bucks
Speaker 1: for Jarrett Stidham, so he's going to take some snaps.
Speaker 1: You know, Stidham got some snaps this year. He'll probably
Speaker 1: start the season. I could see absolutely. You get a
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy or a bow Nicks and you're like, listen,
Speaker 1: we're earmarking Thanksgiving, and you know, Stidham struggles with a
Speaker 1: tough schedule that includes trips to Baltimore and Cincinnati and
Speaker 1: Kansas City, and you know, I could see the jarretts
Speaker 1: that I'm struggling, and then Sean Payton saying, all right,
Speaker 1: it's week seven, Week six, let's go with a kid.
Speaker 1: I'm fine with that too. But in the end, it
Speaker 1: was a big swing by Denver was surprised how bad
Speaker 1: the Russell, Wilson nat Hackett combination was. I just remember
Speaker 1: the first game that he played in Denver and they
Speaker 1: went to Seattle to face the Seahawks, and they couldn't
Speaker 1: figure out the clock with two minutes ago. It was like, oh, oh,
Speaker 1: we got a coordinator, not a great one, trying to
Speaker 1: be a head coach. This isn't gonna work. So and
Speaker 1: I think you've seen that in New York with Matt
Speaker 1: Hackett and Zach Wilson. So it happened. We can point fingers.
Speaker 1: I think it was inevitable. I don't think the personalities clash.
Speaker 1: You don't have to be best friends with your quarterback.
Speaker 1: Belichick and Brady reportedly didn't have a dinner in twenty years.
Speaker 1: You don't have to be best friends. But I think
Speaker 1: Russell maybe the most optimistic player in the league, and
Speaker 1: I think Sean Payton on the other end, is the
Speaker 1: most authentic and raw and outspoken in the league. So
Speaker 1: I mean you have a chasm there of personalities. Whereas
Speaker 1: Belichick and Brady are both intensely driven, workaholics everything else,
Speaker 1: they were kind of on the same plane and in
Speaker 1: the same direction for years. I think Tom's a little
Speaker 1: more joyful and easier to be around. Builds a little
Speaker 1: more old school, but a.
Speaker 2: Lot of things.
Speaker 1: Brady and Belichick were very similar on their ascension, their drive,
Speaker 1: their work ethic, and their commitment to the sport. Sean
Speaker 1: and Russell. You couldn't pick a more optimistic quarterback, maybe
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins, and a more raw coach than Sean Payton.
Speaker 1: It's oil and water. It never worked. That's okay, don't
Speaker 1: need to blame anybody.
Speaker 2: It's okay.
Speaker 1: Shawn's won a Super Bowl.
Speaker 3: So is Russ.
Speaker 1: They've both won Super Bowls. They're more than capable. George Peyton,
Speaker 1: on the other hand, I would be surprised if he
Speaker 1: has a lot of tarmac left. You Whiffin a coach,
Speaker 1: You Whiffin a quarterback eighty five mil dead cap. That's
Speaker 1: going to leave a mark that lingers. And remember this
Speaker 1: division now, Nega, Andy Reid and Jim Harbaugh. Pretty good coaches,
Speaker 1: Pretty good coaches, all right. Welcome in. It's our usual
Speaker 1: Sunday hour. John Middlecoff, former NFL scout who just got
Speaker 1: back from the combine like Thursday night after spending four
Speaker 1: or five days there for the volume. We certainly appreciated
Speaker 1: that I should mention right off the top. Chris Mortenson
Speaker 1: passed away today. He'd been battling cancer for some time.
Speaker 1: He was seventy two years old. Mort was one of
Speaker 1: the more respected you know, he was as kind as
Speaker 1: he was wise, one of those kind of guys that
Speaker 1: I think transcended eras Paul Zimmerman Sports illustrates the first
Speaker 1: like NFL guy. I remember, like what you would call
Speaker 1: like your beat columnist, Peter King, Chris Mortenson. He came
Speaker 1: from the Atlanta Journal Constitution where he was breaking stories
Speaker 1: down there. Just a really nice guy. How was he
Speaker 1: viewed in the league? John, I mean, these guys now
Speaker 1: it's basically about breaking story. Chef took kind of Mortenson's
Speaker 1: roll and it's like minute to minute breaking stories. Chris
Speaker 1: grew up in a generation well without the iPhone. It
Speaker 1: was more about contextualizing stories and breaking stories. How was
Speaker 1: he viewed her on the league?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think people loved him. I mean I saw
Speaker 2: Peyton Manning, who obviously was very close with him in
Speaker 2: the Manning family in general. You know, when I think
Speaker 2: about football, like like you said, I mean growing up
Speaker 2: in the nineties, Chris Mortenson, Peter King. I mean those guys, really,
Speaker 2: you know, from outside of people broadcasting games like a
Speaker 2: John Madden, played an integral, integral role in all of
Speaker 2: us that loved football. I mean the access that they had,
Speaker 2: it's so I mean you can find out everything now
Speaker 2: on social media and all these articles or all these blogs.
Speaker 2: They had something that not many people had, and that
Speaker 2: was information. So I think he was a trailblazer that
Speaker 2: way for sure. And just an awful day obviously had
Speaker 2: been sick for a while, sucks. I mean, he's I
Speaker 2: think he's one of the key figures in terms of
Speaker 2: like NFL reporting, NFL just stories and someone that you
Speaker 2: had to go to for information before inform when information
Speaker 2: was really really hard to get and it was much
Speaker 2: more difficult to communicate.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and uh, you know, he was one of the
Speaker 1: first guys that was a beacon right at a major network.
Speaker 1: I mean, remember sports departments at the network level were
Speaker 1: just ABC, NBC, CBS. You didn't get daily stuff. They
Speaker 1: were basically on for the weekends. And then guys like
Speaker 1: mort who were on this this this initially tiny cable
Speaker 1: outfit that could give you hour by hour day by
Speaker 1: day reporting. It made kind of rock stars out of
Speaker 1: all of them. And mort always Hellett and check in
Speaker 1: terms of gratitude, very very gracious. You know, rest in
Speaker 1: peace to Chris Mortenson, one of the old time greats.
Speaker 1: Everybody likes Kirk Cousins, everybody. And somebody the other day
Speaker 1: said this, They said, you know, everybody talks about Russell
Speaker 1: Wilson and Justin Fields and Baker may Field. And this
Speaker 1: person said, you know, he's got like a career ninety
Speaker 1: nine passer rating and completed sixty nine percent of his
Speaker 1: throws last year. And I mean, is a proven high accuracy,
Speaker 1: high values win, a bunch of game quarterback. When you
Speaker 1: were at the combine, a lot of stuff. Guy like
Speaker 1: me in the opinion space, we don't talk about Kirk
Speaker 1: Cousins because he doesn't make news. You know, he's just
Speaker 1: very quiet. But when you're at the combine, how is
Speaker 1: that Atlanta opening viewed? For instance?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think a lot of people think
Speaker 2: that Cousins is the biggest domino to fall in terms
Speaker 2: of he's the number one target for the teams that
Speaker 2: are aggressively going to try to get a quarterback here
Speaker 2: in two weeks or whenever. The official date is the thirteenth,
Speaker 2: because Justin Fields is not viewed very highly. He's viewed
Speaker 2: highly on Twitter, not by NFL gms and coaches, right,
Speaker 2: not people that are trying to win nine ten games
Speaker 2: last year. And Russell's a little more fascinating because he's
Speaker 2: a very interesting guy because his money's going to be low.
Speaker 2: But you always talk about this when you're really famous
Speaker 2: coming into a place. He's a little more complicated, right
Speaker 2: with Russell, even though actually number wise he wasn't terrible.
Speaker 2: He resurrected his career based on two years ago. He
Speaker 2: was terrible. Cousins before he tore that Achilles remember that money,
Speaker 2: and I came against the forty nine ers. He looked
Speaker 2: at Peyton Manning he had really kind.
Speaker 1: Of oh and the year before he had a game
Speaker 1: at Buffalo against Josh Allen and outdueled him. He has
Speaker 1: He's got a list of six or seven games against Mahomes,
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, the Niners where he has been the best
Speaker 1: player on the field.
Speaker 2: I think he mastered his talent, right. He knows exactly
Speaker 2: what he is and his mind. You know a lot
Speaker 2: of quarterbacks talk about this, right that they get as
Speaker 2: they get older, they realize the game becomes easier than
Speaker 2: the problem is their physical skills diminish. Right. Tom's like,
Speaker 2: I've never been smarter a football. Just don't want to
Speaker 2: get hit anymore. Or Peyton Manning's arm was shot, Drew
Speaker 2: Brees's arm was shot. Cousins did get injured, though, and
Speaker 2: a pretty major injury. I was with his agent one night,
Speaker 2: who I've known for a long time, obviously loves him.
Speaker 2: I mean they've made a lot of money together. He
Speaker 2: got a special contraption that like a lot of I'm
Speaker 2: sure facilities have and like hospitals have when it comes
Speaker 2: to rehabbing the Achilles. Because that's so much money, he
Speaker 2: just bought it for his house. You know, this is
Speaker 2: the guy that takes this stuff very very seriously, and
Speaker 2: I guess it's gone really well. He's like we've put
Speaker 2: out videos of him moving around. They're not bound in
Speaker 2: their chest like Aaron Rodgers, Like this is going to
Speaker 2: be a three month but they think, all things considered
Speaker 2: with the injury. Here's the other thing, Colin. His game
Speaker 2: isn't predicated on running around, right, like when a corner
Speaker 2: or a wide receiver tears an achilles, you go even Rogers,
Speaker 2: like a big part of Rodgers' game is the movement.
Speaker 2: Cousins is Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Philip River. He has
Speaker 2: a move so when you look at it, you go, well,
Speaker 2: if he's healthy, it's not like you have to worry. Well,
Speaker 2: he's not as fast we never ran to begin with,
Speaker 2: So you're getting the guy, I think Atlanta. I mean
Speaker 2: a lot of signs are pointing to that. Now he's
Speaker 2: not cheap, right, and he's proven like that. From a
Speaker 2: business standpoint, they have been very like they don't take discounts.
Speaker 2: So you're not getting the guy for two years sixty
Speaker 2: million dollars would you be willing to give him, you know,
Speaker 2: seventy eighty ninety million dollars guaranteed for sure. You know
Speaker 2: it's a three four year contract. But if he's healthy,
Speaker 2: I mean, Atlanta could all of a sudden be an intriguing,
Speaker 2: you know, playoff level contender. I mean, hell, they were
Speaker 2: kind of right there this year for a long periods
Speaker 2: during the season. But their quarterback play.
Speaker 1: Like me or you, yeah, I mean it's interesting. In
Speaker 1: this league there's there's sort of three levels of successful quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: The stars you know, and we all know who those are,
Speaker 1: mahomes Lamar Josh.
Speaker 2: It's a small handful, two.
Speaker 1: Yeah, very small, six seven. And then the rising young
Speaker 1: stars people are excited about, you know c. J. Stroud,
Speaker 1: you know, Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, whoever. And then there's
Speaker 1: the guys that you know there'll be no chaos, Jared Goff,
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins. I think Goff's the most talented
Speaker 1: of those, but they don't get the fan base necessarily excited.
Speaker 1: But the minute they land, you start winning double digit games.
Speaker 1: I mean, say what you want about Dak, he may
Speaker 1: have a lower ceiling. Dak gets you into the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Dak wins games three years in a row. So I
Speaker 1: find like Kirk Cousins, he's almost you juxtapose him with
Speaker 1: Justin Fields. He's the opposite. There's no flash, no excitement,
Speaker 1: there's no topics. But I just get sixty nine percent
Speaker 1: completion percentage and not a lot of doesn't miss a
Speaker 1: lot of games, doesn't turn it over a lot moves
Speaker 1: the chains. If he doesn't score, he puts your defense
Speaker 1: in pretty good field position. So I think within the
Speaker 1: league there's a great appreciation for guys like Goff and
Speaker 1: guys like Kirk Cousins. I just don't think in the
Speaker 1: media there is kind of wrapping up combine. I want
Speaker 1: to talk about this. You know, when when when I
Speaker 1: was younger, you know, some women you date and some
Speaker 1: you look at and think, you know, this could be
Speaker 1: long term. You could marry, and that's okay. Women look
Speaker 1: at men just the same way. Some you date, some
Speaker 1: you marry. And I've thought about this for a long
Speaker 1: time as I watched the combine and listened to all
Speaker 1: the quarterback talk. If you told me Michael Pennix give
Speaker 1: me four years, I would draft him if I was
Speaker 1: a team that was just sort of stuck. If I
Speaker 1: was Sean Payton and somebody said, you know, he's available,
Speaker 1: it's funny. Whereas everybody else is viewed as a long
Speaker 1: term solution this league. Now by Thanksgiving of year two,
Speaker 1: people in the building are making decisions on quarterbacks. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think the Giants coaches that they're not Daniel Jones
Speaker 1: fans mara is. There's some sort of weird connectivity to
Speaker 1: Eli Manning and Daniel Jones, Southern kids, tall, dark hair, whatever.
Speaker 1: But I sort of look at Michael Pennix and I'm like,
Speaker 1: not every quarterback you draft has to be Brady. If
Speaker 1: you're in Washington's in chaos.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: They're not gonna get him with that pick, obviously, but
Speaker 1: if you start looking where.
Speaker 2: Pennicks can is it two of the best example with Miami,
Speaker 2: he's not great, but he's just he just stabilized the franchise.
Speaker 3: Like I see.
Speaker 1: Penix in terms of throwing the football. You know, big
Speaker 1: strong kid, he's not gonna run. He's clearly a pocket guy.
Speaker 1: What are you hearing about him? Because you know he
Speaker 1: came out, his hand size, his wingspan. I watched him live.
Speaker 1: He throws up the sideline like a twelve year pro.
Speaker 1: Like he is really aside. You know a lot of
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks like bow next, I like, doesn't throw a
Speaker 1: good deep ball. Pennis with a great deep ball. He's
Speaker 1: not gonna move it all. What are you hearing?
Speaker 2: You know? I think Daniel Jeremiah said yesterday when he
Speaker 2: was throwing, he throws the most beautiful ball by far
Speaker 2: of the quarterbacks that were throwing. I mean half of
Speaker 2: them didn't throw. I had friends, I remember watching him
Speaker 2: a lot. I remember the game. You went to and
Speaker 2: watching that game, thing like this is a top ten
Speaker 2: pick and start texting around. A lot of people had
Speaker 2: him in the second and third rounds. Now, when you're
Speaker 2: a scout, you're closer to it, right, you have all
Speaker 2: the in depth medical information. He had basically not completed
Speaker 2: four straight years, and a couple of those were shoulders,
Speaker 2: So if you've been scouting for ten fifteen years, that
Speaker 2: terrifies you. And then in the game against Oregon, In
Speaker 2: both games against Oregon and definitely the game against Michigan,
Speaker 2: which are his best competition and NFL level players everywhere
Speaker 2: on the other side of the ball, he had to
Speaker 2: be picked up and kind of carried. So physically he's
Speaker 2: not His arms are really long and his hands are huge,
Speaker 2: but he's not a very I don't want to call
Speaker 2: him slender. To me, Jaden's more slender, but Jaden's much
Speaker 2: Jaden's an elite athlete, so he can get away. Mike
Speaker 2: Penix is not a lot like Tua. Their pocket quarterbacks.
Speaker 2: They're not mobile guys. They can move a little bit,
Speaker 2: but you're not running them at all. So I think
Speaker 2: the the size and he did not play well in
Speaker 2: that Michigan game and that's an NFL team, and he
Speaker 2: had an NFL team in terms of his wide receivers.
Speaker 2: So I think you can find people like myself. Again,
Speaker 2: I'm just a couch scout now that went like, I'm
Speaker 2: with you. I've seen enough shitty quarterbacks in the NFL.
Speaker 2: If you're Sean Payton just a couple of years, figure
Speaker 2: it out. Can this guy have you competing for the playoffs?
Speaker 2: And I have a lot of people the guy I
Speaker 2: wouldn't touch him in the first round. So he is
Speaker 2: easily one of the more most polarizing guys because ultimately
Speaker 2: Jayden McDaniel or Jade Daniels and Drake May they're going
Speaker 2: two and three in some order. Even Caleb he's not
Speaker 2: polarizing at all. He's going number one. Bo Nicks polarizing
Speaker 2: a little bit, but he's still gonna go pretty high. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I think. And JJ McCarthy, a guy someone people having
Speaker 2: a lot of discussions on, is gonna get drafted high.
Speaker 2: I bet you go in some draft rooms and they'll
Speaker 2: have this guy in the third round and other draft
Speaker 2: rooms that have them, you know, competing to be a
Speaker 2: top twenty pick. I like it because accuracy always matters.
Speaker 2: Deep ball in this NFL matters. If this was nineteen
Speaker 2: ninety two and we had to play the Cowboys, the
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers and the Packers and Reggie White was tackling,
Speaker 2: I'm like, this guy's gonna get broken in half. The
Speaker 2: quarterback doesn't get touched that much. I've seen Brock Ferdy's
Speaker 2: not that big, doesn't really get touched a lot of
Speaker 2: small quarterbacks. Right. It's just even some of Kyler Murray
Speaker 2: didn't get injured in terms of tearing his acl tackled.
Speaker 2: He tore it running. And Michael Penis is not a runner.
Speaker 2: So the offensive line is gonna matter like it will
Speaker 2: with any young quarterback. But I like Michael Pennix. But
Speaker 2: I don't think a lot of NFL teams. I think
Speaker 2: a lot of NFL teams lean second day draft pick.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Andy Reid goes to the combine. McVeigh shanahan not interested.
Speaker 1: What is that?
Speaker 2: I think, Andy Reid. One defense I've heard of the
Speaker 2: shanahans and the mcveigh's and McCarthy is this event's become commercialized, right.
Speaker 2: They like prodding around their coaches and almost profiting off them,
Speaker 2: and it pisses off that crew of guys, which I
Speaker 2: push back and say, the reason you guys make twelve
Speaker 2: fifteen million dollars is the commercialization of the NFL, like,
Speaker 2: welcome to the deal, guys.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: They also would say, well, I still zoom into all
Speaker 2: the interviews at night, so when we interview ten guys
Speaker 2: at night, I'm sitting right there on the computer, and
Speaker 2: any human being would say it is not the same
Speaker 2: that being there. Andy Reid told me none of this matters, right,
Speaker 2: the workouts, the medical I have nothing to do with
Speaker 2: as the head coach, out of my hands. The only
Speaker 2: thing that I come here for is when that guy
Speaker 2: walks into the room, Trent McDuffie, and for the first
Speaker 2: time I meet him and get to talk to him
Speaker 2: and just get a feel for be in the league
Speaker 2: long enough, just like all those guys, I get to
Speaker 2: introduce myself and talk to him and see how he
Speaker 2: interacts with my coaches. We tape tape that too. But
Speaker 2: the react you've interviewed people, what's your reaction interviewing someone
Speaker 2: for your show when they're on zoom or when you're
Speaker 2: sitting next to him in person, when you're interviewing someone
Speaker 2: for the volume in person at you know, meeting him
Speaker 2: for lunch then a telephone call. It's dramatically different. And
Speaker 2: these are million dollar investments. So I don't agree with
Speaker 2: them not coming. Can I understand some of the stuff.
Speaker 2: You're not obligated to talk to the media. You don't
Speaker 2: have to go to that little thing that Andy goes to.
Speaker 2: Belichick never did, never went. He still showed up for
Speaker 2: all the other stuff, the football stuff, which is very important.
Speaker 2: One thing with the forty nine ers, like they've hit
Speaker 2: on a lot of picks in the third, fourth, and
Speaker 2: fifth round. They've missed on a lot of high picks.
Speaker 2: So you know, if Andy Reid's going to be there,
Speaker 2: if Belichick went for forty years, Pete Carroll never missed it,
Speaker 2: there's definitely some value there. And I'm not these guys
Speaker 2: aren't lazy individuals, but I do think they're they're wrong,
Speaker 2: And I mean, who am I to tell them? But
Speaker 2: I just that there's a value there. Clearly the best
Speaker 2: coach in the league. If you said, hey, there's a
Speaker 2: podcasting convention, Coward's going, Rogan's going, and Big Cat's going,
Speaker 2: Should I go? Probably right, It's like, what are we doing?
Speaker 2: You know I would get if Kylea just won the
Speaker 2: Super Bowl and he was off with his family, like
Speaker 2: you lost. This draft's kind of big McVeigh. You've been
Speaker 2: They got knocked out in the first round, right, but
Speaker 2: they just can't stay I saw a less sneed somewhere.
Speaker 2: He didn't even go like it's not pinching pennies. His
Speaker 2: league's making so much money. I can't get behind the
Speaker 2: interview meeting these guys because it is important. And then
Speaker 2: you talked a lot of it. Then what happens middle
Speaker 2: of the season. This guy can't learn, This guy can't
Speaker 2: figure it out. It's not this guy. Well, you at
Speaker 2: the opportunity to meet the guy, right, you could have
Speaker 2: controlled some more of it. So coaches are always quick
Speaker 2: to complain when they don't want to do some of this,
Speaker 2: and in fairness like this is not the combines, more
Speaker 2: about the scouting staff. But ultimately, once the guy's drafted,
Speaker 2: the coaches around and I'm a lot more than GM
Speaker 2: and the.
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Speaker 1: Will I always try to stay away from too many
Speaker 1: conversations with the suits on the fifth floor. You just
Speaker 1: get in trouble when you're on the air and you
Speaker 1: get in the company of powerful men. And Michael Mulverhill,
Speaker 1: the President of Insights and Analytics at Fox across the board,
Speaker 1: is one of those powerful guys. But he's so disarming
Speaker 1: first of all, and second of all, he's got I mean,
Speaker 1: it's a perfect title, Insights and Analytics. There's so many things.
Speaker 1: I don't really talk a ton about my industry. If
Speaker 1: I do, Michael's the guy at Fox that I talk to.
Speaker 1: So there's a kind of a myriad of topics here.
Speaker 1: Let's start with something we've never seen before. Caitlin Clark. Now,
Speaker 1: years ago, when Tiger Woods came into golf, there was
Speaker 1: this sense that, oh, golf ratings are going to explode.
Speaker 1: And my takeaway was, no, when Tiger leaves. I mean,
Speaker 1: three million people take up golf a year and three
Speaker 1: million people quit. It's hard, but there are these Caitlyn Clark,
Speaker 1: Michael Jordan, figures in our life that are just unique
Speaker 1: and spectacular. Women's ratings have been growing. Do you see
Speaker 1: Caitlin Clark as the creator of a new reality or
Speaker 1: to some degree she's just a spectacular unicorn with her style,
Speaker 1: tenacity and excellence for multiple years.
Speaker 5: That's a great place to start. And first of all,
Speaker 5: thanks for having me. I really enjoy doing this with
Speaker 5: you from time to time. I also try to avoid
Speaker 5: having conversations with powerful people up here on the fifth Blok.
Speaker 3: And I have that in common.
Speaker 5: Look, certainly, this is a unique moment in the evolution
Speaker 5: of interest in women's sports. I don't think we've ever
Speaker 5: seen such a groundswell in interest across certainly basketball, collegiate volleyball,
Speaker 5: international soccer. I think what we're seeing is the payoff
Speaker 5: of literally over fifty years of title nind and the
Speaker 5: way that that's changed the way that girls have access
Speaker 5: to sports, and the way that both men and women
Speaker 5: think about women's athletics, and it's brought us to this
Speaker 5: moment where college basketball ratings on the women's side are
Speaker 5: up sixty percent across all networks, and Caitlin Clark's game
Speaker 5: on Sunday against Ohio State did almost three and a
Speaker 5: half million viewers, and I think your question is the
Speaker 5: right one. You know, what does this mean going forward?
Speaker 5: And is Caitlin at Unicorn? And I don't think she is.
Speaker 5: I think that what she is is she's at the
Speaker 5: forefront of an evolution in the skill level that we
Speaker 5: see in women's basketball and the players that are coming
Speaker 5: up behind her, whether that's Pagebeckers who's coming back for
Speaker 5: another year at Connecticut or Juju Watkins who has several
Speaker 5: years to go at Southern cal and obviously they'll be
Speaker 5: part of the Big Ten next year. I think she's
Speaker 5: just on the leading edge of a new generation of
Speaker 5: players that are elevating the game. I think Tiger Woods
Speaker 5: is an interesting precedent as well. I think you could
Speaker 5: even go back as far as the nineteen eighties NBA
Speaker 5: where Magic and then Jordan entered the league and they
Speaker 5: were at a skill level that we hadn't seen before,
Speaker 5: but they just represented an evolution of the game that
Speaker 5: then continued even after they had moved on. So I
Speaker 5: think once Caitlin moves on to the WNBA, I'm not
Speaker 5: sure that we'll see viewership at the collegiate level. That's
Speaker 5: exactly what we're seeing this year, but I don't think
Speaker 5: it's a reset back to where we were five years
Speaker 5: ago either. I think a permanent step forward has happened,
Speaker 5: and we're still going to see some pretty strong interest
Speaker 5: in the future.
Speaker 1: Obviously, the Dallas Cowboys when they're viable, rate very well
Speaker 1: with the NFL, and there are markets right now that
Speaker 1: are underachieving Chicago, New York. You just wish the teams
Speaker 1: were better. I've always argued it's hard to understand how
Speaker 1: big the influence of the forty nine ers is unless
Speaker 1: you live out west. If the Niners are playing in
Speaker 1: your stadium, they've got forty percent of the seats. Other
Speaker 1: than maybe Denver, they're the Yankees of the West coast
Speaker 1: that they literally fill your stadium. So I've always thought
Speaker 1: the Niners were undervalued as an NFL market. San Francisco's
Speaker 1: obviously a big city, and I do wonder about Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: that was so dominant for years, but it's a small
Speaker 1: city relative to other big markets. So if I said
Speaker 1: to you six best, if Fox could pick and now
Speaker 1: these days you guys share AFC NFC, if I said
Speaker 1: to you, all things considered, market brand quarterback, can you
Speaker 1: unveil like the top six or seven picks in this league.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's an interesting way of framing it, right, because
Speaker 5: there's a very clear top two, and then there's a gap,
Speaker 5: and it's sort of an open question as to what
Speaker 5: team might step up and become the third most powerful
Speaker 5: brand because for years, at least on the NFC side,
Speaker 5: it was Dallas and Green Bay. Well, on the side
Speaker 5: it's still Dallas. It's probably always going to be Dallas.
Speaker 5: It could be Green Bay again, but I think right
Speaker 5: now there's a little bit of a blank space that
Speaker 5: some team could step into and become that third marquee brand. Certainly,
Speaker 5: it's been Dallas for a long time now. Kansas City's
Speaker 5: right alongside them. I think when we talk about our
Speaker 5: schedule and when we talked to the league about what
Speaker 5: we would like to have for next season, Dallas and
Speaker 5: Kansas City very clearly have separated themselves from the rest
Speaker 5: of the league. And then there are a number of
Speaker 5: teams that have the potential to become that third marquee team.
Speaker 5: Philadelphia definitely is one. Philadelphia was a holding penalty away
Speaker 5: from sending the Super Bowl to overtime two seasons ago.
Speaker 5: They obviously struggled second half of this season, but that's
Speaker 5: a big brand. They've got exciting star players. The market
Speaker 5: of Philadelphia, it's you know, not only is it one
Speaker 5: of the biggest cities in the country, but it rates
Speaker 5: extremely well. Philadelphia contributes more viewers to our national viewership
Speaker 5: than any other city. So if Philly can bounce back
Speaker 5: from that tough second half that they had last year,
Speaker 5: they're definitely eligible to become that third big brand. I
Speaker 5: think you're right about San Francisco. San Francisco's another team
Speaker 5: was very close to winning a championship. Deep and talented
Speaker 5: on both sides of the ball, fun to watch. They
Speaker 5: play that kind of positionless offense that I think is
Speaker 5: very watchable and just fun. So San Francisco is another one.
Speaker 5: Still a lot of built in following for the Packers.
Speaker 5: They looked a lot better in December than they did
Speaker 5: in September, which is what they to be, so they
Speaker 5: have the potential to step up. I think Buffalo is
Speaker 5: a giant. I think what's interesting with Buffalo is that
Speaker 5: not only is it the quality of the team and
Speaker 5: the quality of Josh Allen, but there's just a culture
Speaker 5: around that team and the idea of the Bills Mafia
Speaker 5: and Buffalo being a super passionate football city that has
Speaker 5: been at the doorstep of a championship a couple times
Speaker 5: and just never quite got there. They've got a little
Speaker 5: bit of that Chicago of the NFL feeling, right where
Speaker 5: if they the big game, that becomes an enormous national story.
Speaker 3: And you could probably put Detroit in that category.
Speaker 5: Two.
Speaker 1: I was thinking of my yeah, they travel well. The
Speaker 1: Lions travel like crazy this year.
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, I think Detroit And look, I grew up
Speaker 5: in Pittsburgh, right, so I'm very familiar with that team
Speaker 5: and that city. Detroit and Pittsburgh are sort of in
Speaker 5: similar circumstances where they're both industrial Midwestern cities where economic
Speaker 5: realities forced a lot of people to move away, Right.
Speaker 5: So You've got a lot of former Pittsburgh's and a
Speaker 5: lot of former Michiganers around the country, And so when
Speaker 5: the Steelers go on the road, there's always a lot
Speaker 5: of Steeler fans there because people have relocated. A lot
Speaker 5: of people from Detroit a relocated I think those teams
Speaker 5: from the industrial Midwest, we think of them as traveling
Speaker 5: well because a lot of people used to live there
Speaker 5: and now they've gone to the sun Belt and they
Speaker 5: go to the road games.
Speaker 1: You know, TV rights as a whole. I can remember
Speaker 1: reading articles, sports illustrated cover articles. You know, when's it
Speaker 1: going to end? You can't pay this much for TV rights. Well,
Speaker 1: now you've got Amazon Apple on the doorstep of you know,
Speaker 1: either buying networks or buying right So the numbers, you know,
Speaker 1: you need content obviously, the cliche content's king. It just
Speaker 1: is fill the bandwidth. That's what they do. You know,
Speaker 1: it's interesting, I work in cable. Explain this to me.
Speaker 1: So Cable obviously has been eroding for several years, for
Speaker 1: about a decade. Talked about for about six seven years,
Speaker 1: but you know, about ten years ago people started. People
Speaker 1: within the industry didn't talk about it publicly. They tried
Speaker 1: to keep it secret, but it started happening. But yet
Speaker 1: the ability by Fox to team with YouTube create streaming
Speaker 1: eventually here is stemming some of the losses. My show,
Speaker 1: for instance, it's we were up twenty five or something
Speaker 1: percent this year and cable is eroding, and I've I'm
Speaker 1: gonna throw something at you. It's theoretical and Michael just
Speaker 1: literally take a pinatit to it if it's crazy.
Speaker 3: But I have made this argument.
Speaker 1: That if TikTok, because of government regulations, was regulated to
Speaker 1: a level that only two things could be on it,
Speaker 1: culinary stuff and pet stuff, and it lost seventy percent
Speaker 1: of its audience, But culinary and pet videos were all
Speaker 1: that was allowed or all that flourished, that it would
Speaker 1: be an incredibly dynamic platform for those two right industries. Well,
Speaker 1: television now cable TV is sports and politics, Linear TV
Speaker 1: sports and politics. So people say cable's dying, and I'm like, no,
Speaker 1: yes it is, but it's overwhelming. We don't share it
Speaker 1: with anybody. We share it with Trump and Biden for
Speaker 1: five Otherwise, television's now dominated by the industry I grew
Speaker 1: up in. So is that as the platform may be
Speaker 1: dissolving or shrinking or dressing, it's now wholly owned by
Speaker 1: two factors, of which it should be noted, Fox, between
Speaker 1: politics and sports, is well suited to flourish. So when
Speaker 1: you look at the cable erosion, they've been talking about
Speaker 1: newspaper erosion forever. New York Times is more powerful than ever,
Speaker 1: in my opinion, they bought the Athletic which for four
Speaker 1: or five hundred million dollars I don't know how to
Speaker 1: position it or if you can talk about it too much?
Speaker 1: But what do you make of the cable erosion? But
Speaker 1: some of those losses appear to be being are stemmed
Speaker 1: by sports gambling, the increased dominance of sports by YouTube
Speaker 1: and relationships. Talk me through how you view that.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's an incredibly rich topic, right, and that is
Speaker 5: what everybody in our business spends a lot of our
Speaker 5: time thinking about. Is how is that? How is that
Speaker 5: cable business changing? What does it mean to our revenue streams?
Speaker 5: What's going to mean to sports rights going forward? I
Speaker 5: think if you want to understand our business, a good
Speaker 5: place to start is to simply understand that for the
Speaker 5: entire time that you and I have been doing what
Speaker 5: we do, sports content has in some way been subsidized
Speaker 5: by non sports fan.
Speaker 3: Who paid for cable TV.
Speaker 5: And so for the last forty years, while media has
Speaker 5: changed incalculably, what we've always seen in sports is a
Speaker 5: rising number of PATV subscribers, more people paying for content,
Speaker 5: and so the pool of money that's available to us
Speaker 5: in sports has just grown and grown and grown. Nobody
Speaker 5: our age or younger, has ever really known what it
Speaker 5: means to be in a contracting sports economy. Well, now,
Speaker 5: because of that what you're describing where people are getting
Speaker 5: out of the cable bundle, entertainment viewers are figuring out
Speaker 5: that they can get the content they want from streaming platforms,
Speaker 5: and so fewer and fewer non sports fans are paying
Speaker 5: for sports content. That era of subsidization is either coming
Speaker 5: to an end or it's already over, and that pool
Speaker 5: that we have to pay for sports rights is going
Speaker 5: to contract, and it forces all of us to be
Speaker 5: a little bit more disciplined in our deal making and
Speaker 5: in the way that we consider rights opportunities. But what's
Speaker 5: also interesting there is that as that number of people
Speaker 5: that are subscribing to cable TV shrinks and it goes
Speaker 5: from nearly one hundred million to now closer to seventy million,
Speaker 5: you know, I believe that most of the people that
Speaker 5: are getting out of the sports, that are getting out
Speaker 5: of the PayTV bundle, they're not really big sports fans.
Speaker 5: They're people who are subscribing to cable for entertainment content.
Speaker 5: Now they're getting their entertainment content from Netflix and from
Speaker 5: Prime Video, Disney Plus. And what that means is that
Speaker 5: your number of cable subscribers is going down. The revenue
Speaker 5: associate with those subscribers is going down. And yet because
Speaker 5: those people that are leaving the bundle aren't sports fans,
Speaker 5: the people that are left behind are spending more of
Speaker 5: their time on sports and on twenty four hour news.
Speaker 5: And so here we are for this year to date,
Speaker 5: FS one viewership is up seven percent, right, may not
Speaker 5: sound like a lot, but when you're in an environment
Speaker 5: of declining subscribers, to have any growth is pretty noteworthy.
Speaker 5: Your show is growing, Nick Wright's show is growing. We
Speaker 5: see shows on ESPN that are still growing. If you
Speaker 5: talk about live events, NFL college football, we talked about
Speaker 5: women's basketball earlier. NASCAR has been up the last couple weeks.
Speaker 5: There's a lot out there that's growing. And so sort
Speaker 5: of the paradox of it is that the viewership for
Speaker 5: sports in many many cases is going up, and yet
Speaker 5: because that subscriber base is eroding, the revenue associated with
Speaker 5: sports TV is going down. And so there's a little
Speaker 5: bit of a decoupling between popularity and revenue generation. And
Speaker 5: I think it's very confusing to people because you're constantly
Speaker 5: reading about record ratings for the Super Bowl, record ratings
Speaker 5: for college football, and yet we and companies like ours
Speaker 5: don't necessarily have the same The revenue streams that we
Speaker 5: draw on to make these deals aren't as powerful as
Speaker 5: they were even just a couple of years ago.
Speaker 3: So that's a transformational change. It's I think it's.
Speaker 5: A major adjustment for people who do what I do
Speaker 5: and who have only ever known and expanding sports economy,
Speaker 5: And it's going to affect all of us, right It
Speaker 5: affects what's available to spend on rights, it affects what's
Speaker 5: available to spend on talent, It affects people like me
Speaker 5: right like, we all are going to have to sort
Speaker 5: of redemonstrate and re establish our value because we can't
Speaker 5: just rely on the rising tide of growing cable revenue.
Speaker 5: So that's kind of a long explanation, but that's probably
Speaker 5: as best as I can put in the volume.
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,
Speaker 1: take a moment, rate and review