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Speaker 1: The Vine this week on Prime Cuts, John Middelkoff on

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Speaker 1: NFL free agency, Michael mulva Hill, who is fascinating for

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Speaker 1: Fox Sports Analytics and insights. You'll want to listen on

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Speaker 1: Caitlin Clark star power in my top takes of the week.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go, semi instant reaction. I had

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Speaker 1: to speak to a USC grad class today, so I

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Speaker 1: was really interesting kids and did that for an hour,

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Speaker 1: a little over an hour. So I came out of

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Speaker 1: the class and I heard the news the Denver Broncos

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Speaker 1: had released Russell Wilson, which saves them thirty seven million,

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Speaker 1: but they still have about eighty five million in dead

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Speaker 1: cap money, which is like double the most ever. And

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Speaker 1: I think that was I believe that was Matt Ryan

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Speaker 1: Falcons when they moved off him. So you're going to

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Speaker 1: have to hit on some draft picks the only way

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Speaker 1: to ease the pain. And remember the NFL did come in,

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Speaker 1: gave everybody a thirty million more dollars in cap space.

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Speaker 1: That hell, and hitting on four draft picks that could

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Speaker 1: players start. That helps. But for a year it's going

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Speaker 1: to be pretty ugly. Let's first start about blame. Who

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Speaker 1: to blame? Well, Sean Payton needs to win games, and

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson wants to find a landing spot. Those guys

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Speaker 1: are not in the blame game. They're in the turn

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Speaker 1: of the page game, and I don't blame them. Their

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Speaker 1: energy is going to be Russell Wilson wants to find

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Speaker 1: a better team. I think Pittsburgh's perfect. You cannot be

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Speaker 1: in a division with Joe Burrow twice a year, Kevin

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Speaker 1: Stefanski and DeShawn Watson twice a year, and Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 1: and John Harbaugh twice a year with Kenny Pickett, can't go.

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Speaker 1: Look at the Vegas odds Steelers near the bottom of

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Speaker 1: the NFL. I think you roll the dice. You go

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Speaker 1: with Russell Wilson. His maturity and devotion and commitment is

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Speaker 1: what the Steelers need. Offensively, it's they got some receivers

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Speaker 1: who I really like, but they're a little young, a

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Speaker 1: little immature. They're ready to go, and their offensive line

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Speaker 1: is okay, not special, and Russell Wilson is still mobile

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Speaker 1: enough to avoid some of that stuff. So I think

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Speaker 1: it works. I think I think the culture and the

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Speaker 1: person ellen Pittsburgh is good. They don't have a trigger guy.

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Speaker 1: They don't have a quarterback. And in the AFC, you're

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Speaker 1: not going anywhere unless you have a star, even if

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Speaker 1: it's a declining star. You got to have a star

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Speaker 1: to win games. So I think Russell Wilson will do

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Speaker 1: just fine. Denver's gonna probably go get out a JJ

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Speaker 1: McCarthy or a bow Nicks. I will tell you Denver schedule.

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Speaker 1: They get the NFC South, that's the good news. The

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Speaker 1: bad news they also face the AFC North. So they

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Speaker 1: are at road games next year for Denver beyond facing Harbaugh,

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Speaker 1: Justin Herbert and the Chargers, beyond facing Mahomes and Andy

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Speaker 1: Reid and the Chiefs. They go to Baltimore. Yeah, Raven's

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Speaker 1: pretty good. At home, they go to Joe Berwin, Cincinnati,

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Speaker 1: two New Orleans and Derek Carr, to Tampa and Baker

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Speaker 1: Mayfield two Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, and to Seattle.

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Speaker 1: That ain't great for a rookie quarterback. Now the home schedule,

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Speaker 1: they get Atlanta Carolina at home, but Pittsburgh Cleveland Colts

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Speaker 1: at home. Now they have the schedule. They don't know

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Speaker 1: when the dates are, but those are some tough road games.

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Speaker 1: Those are harsh environments. Going toe to toe with really

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Speaker 1: good quarterbacks in many instances, Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow,

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson. There's some l's there, Mahomes once, Justin Herbert

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Speaker 1: once with Harbaugh. You know, I just I think maybe

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Speaker 1: I wasn't like this in my twenties. But as I've aged,

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Speaker 1: pointing fingers doesn't solve anything. Listen, you want to point fingers,

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Speaker 1: you could point to the Broncos GM George Payton. He

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Speaker 1: gave up two first two second round picks. I think

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Speaker 1: he gave up three players and maybe a fifth round pick.

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Speaker 1: He also hired Nat Hackett, and that was a complete disaster.

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Speaker 1: Many believe he hired Nathaniel Hackett because he tried to

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Speaker 1: get Aaron Rodgers and when he couldn't rustle in, Nat

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Speaker 1: Hackett's off as just didn't work. So he has created

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Speaker 1: eighty five million a dead cap. He gave up a

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Speaker 1: lot of draft capital, he picked the wrong head coach,

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Speaker 1: and Sean Payton's got to pick up the pieces from there.

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Speaker 1: But you know, I don't think George Peyton and I

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Speaker 1: and I do respect the job he's done mostly, but

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Speaker 1: you can only have so many big whiffs. And Hackett

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Speaker 1: and Russell. That's a big whiff coach quarterback league whift

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Speaker 1: on both so and I don't think Russell would have

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Speaker 1: You know, people can get all over Sean Payton this thing.

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Speaker 1: Sean and Russell were not going to work. But what

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Speaker 1: coach would you really need to work? I mean, after

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Speaker 1: Nat Hackett bombed, who wanted the job? Ask yourself you

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Speaker 1: would have a rookie coach? Would he have worked with

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson? I mean, the personnel is what it is

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Speaker 1: based on what you were paying Russell Wilson and what

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Speaker 1: you surrendered in the draft. There were some limitations here.

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Speaker 1: So I think Sean Payton will figure it out. But

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Speaker 1: I think if Russell Wilson went to the Steelers, he'll

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Speaker 1: have a better year than JJ McCarthy or bow next

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Speaker 1: with the Broncos. I don't think there's any question about that.

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Speaker 1: So year two feels like, you know, Sean Payton just

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Speaker 1: getting out from under Russell Wilson the player. Now he

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Speaker 1: has to spend another year getting out from under the

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Speaker 1: dead cap hit in a division with Justin Herbert Harbaugh,

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Speaker 1: Pat Mahomes, Andy Reid. That is a big, big hill climb.

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Speaker 1: But I've never felt and I said this. I know

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Speaker 1: Sean Peyton well enough, after twenty interviews with him and

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Speaker 1: a dinner with him and spending time with him and

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Speaker 1: talking to him, I just never felt he and Russ.

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Speaker 1: That's why I thought it was strange when he took

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Speaker 1: the job. I just I didn't think it was a job.

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Speaker 1: He wanted the charger's job initially, but I think the

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Speaker 1: Denver owners have a lot of cash, came in, wrote

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Speaker 1: a big check, and it's hard to look the other way.

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Speaker 1: I get it, but this was never going to be easy.

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Speaker 1: Sean is a very direct, very authentic, very opinionated person,

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Speaker 1: and you know Russell is hopelessly optimistic, and he has

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Speaker 1: a declining quarterback, and there are some psychological factors when

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Speaker 1: a quarterback gets older. He wants his money, he wants

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Speaker 1: his protection. And I don't think Russell ever felt supported

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Speaker 1: by Nat Hackett's incompetence or Sean Payton's brewed lawnesty. And

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Speaker 1: so I didn't think it was a good fit. So

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Speaker 1: let's move on and start over. I still think Russell

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Speaker 1: Wilson has several good years in him. He's not a disaster,

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Speaker 1: he's not washed. He just needs the right pieces and

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Speaker 1: you know, I've been saying this for years. Pittsburgh's personnels.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they have all the things you need. They

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Speaker 1: have weapons on the outside. Offensively, they have a run game,

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Speaker 1: and they have speed on the perimeter. They have a

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Speaker 1: pass rusher, they have playmakers on defense. They're not great

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Speaker 1: at corner. Nobody outside of maybe the Jets and the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs is great at corner. We have a corner shortage

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Speaker 1: in the NFL, and elite corner shortage. So and once again,

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Speaker 1: it's a great NFL draft for wide receivers. It's like

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Speaker 1: the fourth straight draft, great wide receiver draft, not a

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Speaker 1: great corner draft. So that you just that problem will

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Speaker 1: be exacerbated. You're just gonna have more great receivers and

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Speaker 1: fewer great corners. But I tend to think we can

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Speaker 1: sit and point fingers at this stuff. Denver's in the AFC.

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Speaker 1: They gonna go find their next quarterback star. And history

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Speaker 1: tells you if there's five quarterbacks taken in the first round,

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Speaker 1: one's going to be a hit, two are gonna work

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Speaker 1: kind of, one's gonna be a bust, and one or

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Speaker 1: two won't be as they won't get a second contract.

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Speaker 1: And so you know, I'll say this, I think outside

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Speaker 1: of Caleb Williams, the rest of these quarterbacks will be

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Speaker 1: as good as the place they land. So I think

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Speaker 1: if it's bo Nix or JJ McCarthy, I think both

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Speaker 1: can succeed with Sean Payton both. I think JJ McCarthy's

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Speaker 1: got a better arm than bow Knicks. I think bo

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Speaker 1: Nix has far more college starts and is more accurate

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Speaker 1: than JJ McCarthy. But it just depends on what you like.

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Speaker 1: JJ's a little taller, I think, in my opinion, bon

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Speaker 1: Nicks is. I feel like he's kind of elusive the

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Speaker 1: deep ball. I take JJ McCarthy accuracy, I take bo

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Speaker 1: Nicks experience. I'd take Bo next. I think JJ McCarthy

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Speaker 1: may have a higher ceiling. Bnick's a little lower ceiling,

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Speaker 1: But it could be that bow Nex has a higher

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Speaker 1: floor than JJ McCarthy. So I think both those guys

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Speaker 1: that would be a perfect place to land. I don't

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Speaker 1: think Michael Pennix, though I love the way he throws,

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Speaker 1: I don't think Denver would take the risk on him

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Speaker 1: being his injury history. They got to get this thing right,

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Speaker 1: and I just feel like bo Nix works for that offense. Accuracy, experience,

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Speaker 1: kid that's been around. He carried Oregon at times, whereas

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Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy felt sometimes not to be unfair, but like

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Speaker 1: he was carried by Michigan's O line, run game coaching

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Speaker 1: and dominating defense. So I think that's the direction they'll go.

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Speaker 1: Jarrett Stidham can start for the time being. He's capable,

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Speaker 1: he's okay. That's obviously not the future. It does matter, though,

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Speaker 1: that the rookie quarterback is going to come into a

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Speaker 1: system where you know, they pay like twelve million bucks

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Speaker 1: for Jarrett Stidham, so he's going to take some snaps.

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Speaker 1: You know, Stidham got some snaps this year. He'll probably

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Speaker 1: start the season. I could see absolutely. You get a

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Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy or a bow Nicks and you're like, listen,

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Speaker 1: we're earmarking Thanksgiving, and you know, Stidham struggles with a

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Speaker 1: tough schedule that includes trips to Baltimore and Cincinnati and

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Speaker 1: Kansas City, and you know, I could see the jarretts

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Speaker 1: that I'm struggling, and then Sean Payton saying, all right,

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Speaker 1: it's week seven, Week six, let's go with a kid.

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Speaker 1: I'm fine with that too. But in the end, it

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Speaker 1: was a big swing by Denver was surprised how bad

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Speaker 1: the Russell, Wilson nat Hackett combination was. I just remember

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Speaker 1: the first game that he played in Denver and they

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Speaker 1: went to Seattle to face the Seahawks, and they couldn't

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Speaker 1: figure out the clock with two minutes ago. It was like, oh, oh,

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Speaker 1: we got a coordinator, not a great one, trying to

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Speaker 1: be a head coach. This isn't gonna work. So and

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Speaker 1: I think you've seen that in New York with Matt

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Speaker 1: Hackett and Zach Wilson. So it happened. We can point fingers.

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Speaker 1: I think it was inevitable. I don't think the personalities clash.

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Speaker 1: You don't have to be best friends with your quarterback.

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Speaker 1: Belichick and Brady reportedly didn't have a dinner in twenty years.

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Speaker 1: You don't have to be best friends. But I think

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Speaker 1: Russell maybe the most optimistic player in the league, and

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Speaker 1: I think Sean Payton on the other end, is the

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Speaker 1: most authentic and raw and outspoken in the league. So

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Speaker 1: I mean you have a chasm there of personalities. Whereas

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Speaker 1: Belichick and Brady are both intensely driven, workaholics everything else,

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Speaker 1: they were kind of on the same plane and in

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Speaker 1: the same direction for years. I think Tom's a little

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Speaker 1: more joyful and easier to be around. Builds a little

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Speaker 1: more old school, but a.

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Speaker 2: Lot of things.

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Speaker 1: Brady and Belichick were very similar on their ascension, their drive,

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Speaker 1: their work ethic, and their commitment to the sport. Sean

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Speaker 1: and Russell. You couldn't pick a more optimistic quarterback, maybe

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Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins, and a more raw coach than Sean Payton.

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Speaker 1: It's oil and water. It never worked. That's okay, don't

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Speaker 1: need to blame anybody.

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Speaker 2: It's okay.

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Speaker 1: Shawn's won a Super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: So is Russ.

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Speaker 1: They've both won Super Bowls. They're more than capable. George Peyton,

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Speaker 1: on the other hand, I would be surprised if he

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Speaker 1: has a lot of tarmac left. You Whiffin a coach,

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Speaker 1: You Whiffin a quarterback eighty five mil dead cap. That's

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Speaker 1: going to leave a mark that lingers. And remember this

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Speaker 1: division now, Nega, Andy Reid and Jim Harbaugh. Pretty good coaches,

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Speaker 1: Pretty good coaches, all right. Welcome in. It's our usual

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Speaker 1: Sunday hour. John Middlecoff, former NFL scout who just got

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Speaker 1: back from the combine like Thursday night after spending four

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Speaker 1: or five days there for the volume. We certainly appreciated

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Speaker 1: that I should mention right off the top. Chris Mortenson

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Speaker 1: passed away today. He'd been battling cancer for some time.

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Speaker 1: He was seventy two years old. Mort was one of

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Speaker 1: the more respected you know, he was as kind as

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Speaker 1: he was wise, one of those kind of guys that

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Speaker 1: I think transcended eras Paul Zimmerman Sports illustrates the first

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Speaker 1: like NFL guy. I remember, like what you would call

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Speaker 1: like your beat columnist, Peter King, Chris Mortenson. He came

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Speaker 1: from the Atlanta Journal Constitution where he was breaking stories

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Speaker 1: down there. Just a really nice guy. How was he

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Speaker 1: viewed in the league? John, I mean, these guys now

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Speaker 1: it's basically about breaking story. Chef took kind of Mortenson's

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Speaker 1: roll and it's like minute to minute breaking stories. Chris

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Speaker 1: grew up in a generation well without the iPhone. It

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Speaker 1: was more about contextualizing stories and breaking stories. How was

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Speaker 1: he viewed her on the league?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think people loved him. I mean I saw

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Speaker 2: Peyton Manning, who obviously was very close with him in

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Speaker 2: the Manning family in general. You know, when I think

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Speaker 2: about football, like like you said, I mean growing up

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Speaker 2: in the nineties, Chris Mortenson, Peter King. I mean those guys, really,

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Speaker 2: you know, from outside of people broadcasting games like a

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Speaker 2: John Madden, played an integral, integral role in all of

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Speaker 2: us that loved football. I mean the access that they had,

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Speaker 2: it's so I mean you can find out everything now

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Speaker 2: on social media and all these articles or all these blogs.

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Speaker 2: They had something that not many people had, and that

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Speaker 2: was information. So I think he was a trailblazer that

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Speaker 2: way for sure. And just an awful day obviously had

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Speaker 2: been sick for a while, sucks. I mean, he's I

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Speaker 2: think he's one of the key figures in terms of

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Speaker 2: like NFL reporting, NFL just stories and someone that you

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Speaker 2: had to go to for information before inform when information

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Speaker 2: was really really hard to get and it was much

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Speaker 2: more difficult to communicate.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and uh, you know, he was one of the

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Speaker 1: first guys that was a beacon right at a major network.

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Speaker 1: I mean, remember sports departments at the network level were

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Speaker 1: just ABC, NBC, CBS. You didn't get daily stuff. They

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Speaker 1: were basically on for the weekends. And then guys like

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Speaker 1: mort who were on this this this initially tiny cable

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Speaker 1: outfit that could give you hour by hour day by

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Speaker 1: day reporting. It made kind of rock stars out of

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Speaker 1: all of them. And mort always Hellett and check in

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Speaker 1: terms of gratitude, very very gracious. You know, rest in

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Speaker 1: peace to Chris Mortenson, one of the old time greats.

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Speaker 1: Everybody likes Kirk Cousins, everybody. And somebody the other day

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Speaker 1: said this, They said, you know, everybody talks about Russell

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Speaker 1: Wilson and Justin Fields and Baker may Field. And this

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Speaker 1: person said, you know, he's got like a career ninety

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Speaker 1: nine passer rating and completed sixty nine percent of his

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Speaker 1: throws last year. And I mean, is a proven high accuracy,

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Speaker 1: high values win, a bunch of game quarterback. When you

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Speaker 1: were at the combine, a lot of stuff. Guy like

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Speaker 1: me in the opinion space, we don't talk about Kirk

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Speaker 1: Cousins because he doesn't make news. You know, he's just

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Speaker 1: very quiet. But when you're at the combine, how is

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Speaker 1: that Atlanta opening viewed? For instance?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think a lot of people think

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Speaker 2: that Cousins is the biggest domino to fall in terms

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Speaker 2: of he's the number one target for the teams that

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Speaker 2: are aggressively going to try to get a quarterback here

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Speaker 2: in two weeks or whenever. The official date is the thirteenth,

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Speaker 2: because Justin Fields is not viewed very highly. He's viewed

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Speaker 2: highly on Twitter, not by NFL gms and coaches, right,

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Speaker 2: not people that are trying to win nine ten games

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Speaker 2: last year. And Russell's a little more fascinating because he's

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Speaker 2: a very interesting guy because his money's going to be low.

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Speaker 2: But you always talk about this when you're really famous

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Speaker 2: coming into a place. He's a little more complicated, right

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Speaker 2: with Russell, even though actually number wise he wasn't terrible.

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Speaker 2: He resurrected his career based on two years ago. He

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Speaker 2: was terrible. Cousins before he tore that Achilles remember that money,

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Speaker 2: and I came against the forty nine ers. He looked

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Speaker 2: at Peyton Manning he had really kind.

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Speaker 1: Of oh and the year before he had a game

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Speaker 1: at Buffalo against Josh Allen and outdueled him. He has

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Speaker 1: He's got a list of six or seven games against Mahomes,

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen, the Niners where he has been the best

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Speaker 1: player on the field.

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Speaker 2: I think he mastered his talent, right. He knows exactly

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Speaker 2: what he is and his mind. You know a lot

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Speaker 2: of quarterbacks talk about this, right that they get as

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Speaker 2: they get older, they realize the game becomes easier than

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Speaker 2: the problem is their physical skills diminish. Right. Tom's like,

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Speaker 2: I've never been smarter a football. Just don't want to

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Speaker 2: get hit anymore. Or Peyton Manning's arm was shot, Drew

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Speaker 2: Brees's arm was shot. Cousins did get injured, though, and

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Speaker 2: a pretty major injury. I was with his agent one night,

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Speaker 2: who I've known for a long time, obviously loves him.

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Speaker 2: I mean they've made a lot of money together. He

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Speaker 2: got a special contraption that like a lot of I'm

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Speaker 2: sure facilities have and like hospitals have when it comes

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Speaker 2: to rehabbing the Achilles. Because that's so much money, he

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Speaker 2: just bought it for his house. You know, this is

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Speaker 2: the guy that takes this stuff very very seriously, and

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Speaker 2: I guess it's gone really well. He's like we've put

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Speaker 2: out videos of him moving around. They're not bound in

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Speaker 2: their chest like Aaron Rodgers, Like this is going to

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Speaker 2: be a three month but they think, all things considered

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Speaker 2: with the injury. Here's the other thing, Colin. His game

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Speaker 2: isn't predicated on running around, right, like when a corner

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Speaker 2: or a wide receiver tears an achilles, you go even Rogers,

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Speaker 2: like a big part of Rodgers' game is the movement.

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Speaker 2: Cousins is Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Philip River. He has

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Speaker 2: a move so when you look at it, you go, well,

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Speaker 2: if he's healthy, it's not like you have to worry. Well,

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Speaker 2: he's not as fast we never ran to begin with,

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Speaker 2: So you're getting the guy, I think Atlanta. I mean

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Speaker 2: a lot of signs are pointing to that. Now he's

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Speaker 2: not cheap, right, and he's proven like that. From a

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Speaker 2: business standpoint, they have been very like they don't take discounts.

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Speaker 2: So you're not getting the guy for two years sixty

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Speaker 2: million dollars would you be willing to give him, you know,

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Speaker 2: seventy eighty ninety million dollars guaranteed for sure. You know

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Speaker 2: it's a three four year contract. But if he's healthy,

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Speaker 2: I mean, Atlanta could all of a sudden be an intriguing,

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Speaker 2: you know, playoff level contender. I mean, hell, they were

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Speaker 2: kind of right there this year for a long periods

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Speaker 2: during the season. But their quarterback play.

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Speaker 1: Like me or you, yeah, I mean it's interesting. In

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Speaker 1: this league there's there's sort of three levels of successful quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: The stars you know, and we all know who those are,

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Speaker 1: mahomes Lamar Josh.

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Speaker 2: It's a small handful, two.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, very small, six seven. And then the rising young

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Speaker 1: stars people are excited about, you know c. J. Stroud,

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Speaker 1: you know, Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, whoever. And then there's

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Speaker 1: the guys that you know there'll be no chaos, Jared Goff,

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Speaker 1: Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins. I think Goff's the most talented

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Speaker 1: of those, but they don't get the fan base necessarily excited.

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Speaker 1: But the minute they land, you start winning double digit games.

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Speaker 1: I mean, say what you want about Dak, he may

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Speaker 1: have a lower ceiling. Dak gets you into the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Dak wins games three years in a row. So I

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Speaker 1: find like Kirk Cousins, he's almost you juxtapose him with

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Speaker 1: Justin Fields. He's the opposite. There's no flash, no excitement,

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Speaker 1: there's no topics. But I just get sixty nine percent

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Speaker 1: completion percentage and not a lot of doesn't miss a

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Speaker 1: lot of games, doesn't turn it over a lot moves

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Speaker 1: the chains. If he doesn't score, he puts your defense

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Speaker 1: in pretty good field position. So I think within the

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Speaker 1: league there's a great appreciation for guys like Goff and

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Speaker 1: guys like Kirk Cousins. I just don't think in the

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Speaker 1: media there is kind of wrapping up combine. I want

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Speaker 1: to talk about this. You know, when when when I

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Speaker 1: was younger, you know, some women you date and some

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Speaker 1: you look at and think, you know, this could be

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Speaker 1: long term. You could marry, and that's okay. Women look

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Speaker 1: at men just the same way. Some you date, some

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Speaker 1: you marry. And I've thought about this for a long

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Speaker 1: time as I watched the combine and listened to all

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Speaker 1: the quarterback talk. If you told me Michael Pennix give

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Speaker 1: me four years, I would draft him if I was

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Speaker 1: a team that was just sort of stuck. If I

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Speaker 1: was Sean Payton and somebody said, you know, he's available,

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Speaker 1: it's funny. Whereas everybody else is viewed as a long

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Speaker 1: term solution this league. Now by Thanksgiving of year two,

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Speaker 1: people in the building are making decisions on quarterbacks. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think the Giants coaches that they're not Daniel Jones

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Speaker 1: fans mara is. There's some sort of weird connectivity to

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Speaker 1: Eli Manning and Daniel Jones, Southern kids, tall, dark hair, whatever.

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Speaker 1: But I sort of look at Michael Pennix and I'm like,

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Speaker 1: not every quarterback you draft has to be Brady. If

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Speaker 1: you're in Washington's in chaos.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: They're not gonna get him with that pick, obviously, but

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Speaker 1: if you start looking where.

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Speaker 2: Pennicks can is it two of the best example with Miami,

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Speaker 2: he's not great, but he's just he just stabilized the franchise.

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Speaker 3: Like I see.

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Speaker 1: Penix in terms of throwing the football. You know, big

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Speaker 1: strong kid, he's not gonna run. He's clearly a pocket guy.

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Speaker 1: What are you hearing about him? Because you know he

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Speaker 1: came out, his hand size, his wingspan. I watched him live.

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Speaker 1: He throws up the sideline like a twelve year pro.

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Speaker 1: Like he is really aside. You know a lot of

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Speaker 1: these quarterbacks like bow next, I like, doesn't throw a

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Speaker 1: good deep ball. Pennis with a great deep ball. He's

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Speaker 1: not gonna move it all. What are you hearing?

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Speaker 2: You know? I think Daniel Jeremiah said yesterday when he

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Speaker 2: was throwing, he throws the most beautiful ball by far

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Speaker 2: of the quarterbacks that were throwing. I mean half of

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Speaker 2: them didn't throw. I had friends, I remember watching him

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Speaker 2: a lot. I remember the game. You went to and

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Speaker 2: watching that game, thing like this is a top ten

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Speaker 2: pick and start texting around. A lot of people had

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Speaker 2: him in the second and third rounds. Now, when you're

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Speaker 2: a scout, you're closer to it, right, you have all

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Speaker 2: the in depth medical information. He had basically not completed

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Speaker 2: four straight years, and a couple of those were shoulders,

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Speaker 2: So if you've been scouting for ten fifteen years, that

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Speaker 2: terrifies you. And then in the game against Oregon, In

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Speaker 2: both games against Oregon and definitely the game against Michigan,

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Speaker 2: which are his best competition and NFL level players everywhere

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Speaker 2: on the other side of the ball, he had to

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Speaker 2: be picked up and kind of carried. So physically he's

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Speaker 2: not His arms are really long and his hands are huge,

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Speaker 2: but he's not a very I don't want to call

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Speaker 2: him slender. To me, Jaden's more slender, but Jaden's much

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Speaker 2: Jaden's an elite athlete, so he can get away. Mike

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Speaker 2: Penix is not a lot like Tua. Their pocket quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: They're not mobile guys. They can move a little bit,

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Speaker 2: but you're not running them at all. So I think

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Speaker 2: the the size and he did not play well in

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Speaker 2: that Michigan game and that's an NFL team, and he

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Speaker 2: had an NFL team in terms of his wide receivers.

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Speaker 2: So I think you can find people like myself. Again,

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Speaker 2: I'm just a couch scout now that went like, I'm

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Speaker 2: with you. I've seen enough shitty quarterbacks in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: If you're Sean Payton just a couple of years, figure

426
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 2: it out. Can this guy have you competing for the playoffs?

427
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 2: And I have a lot of people the guy I

428
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 2: wouldn't touch him in the first round. So he is

429
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 2: easily one of the more most polarizing guys because ultimately

430
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 2: Jayden McDaniel or Jade Daniels and Drake May they're going

431
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,239
Speaker 2: two and three in some order. Even Caleb he's not

432
00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 2: polarizing at all. He's going number one. Bo Nicks polarizing

433
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:45,880
Speaker 2: a little bit, but he's still gonna go pretty high. Yeah,

434
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 2: I think. And JJ McCarthy, a guy someone people having

435
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 2: a lot of discussions on, is gonna get drafted high.

436
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 2: I bet you go in some draft rooms and they'll

437
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 2: have this guy in the third round and other draft

438
00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 2: rooms that have them, you know, competing to be a

439
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 2: top twenty pick. I like it because accuracy always matters.

440
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 2: Deep ball in this NFL matters. If this was nineteen

441
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 2: ninety two and we had to play the Cowboys, the

442
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers and the Packers and Reggie White was tackling,

443
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 2: I'm like, this guy's gonna get broken in half. The

444
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 2: quarterback doesn't get touched that much. I've seen Brock Ferdy's

445
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 2: not that big, doesn't really get touched a lot of

446
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 2: small quarterbacks. Right. It's just even some of Kyler Murray

447
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 2: didn't get injured in terms of tearing his acl tackled.

448
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 2: He tore it running. And Michael Penis is not a runner.

449
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,160
Speaker 2: So the offensive line is gonna matter like it will

450
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 2: with any young quarterback. But I like Michael Pennix. But

451
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 2: I don't think a lot of NFL teams. I think

452
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 2: a lot of NFL teams lean second day draft pick.

453
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, Andy Reid goes to the combine. McVeigh shanahan not interested.

454
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 1: What is that?

455
00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:00,679
Speaker 2: I think, Andy Reid. One defense I've heard of the

456
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 2: shanahans and the mcveigh's and McCarthy is this event's become commercialized, right.

457
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 2: They like prodding around their coaches and almost profiting off them,

458
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 2: and it pisses off that crew of guys, which I

459
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 2: push back and say, the reason you guys make twelve

460
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:19,119
Speaker 2: fifteen million dollars is the commercialization of the NFL, like,

461
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 2: welcome to the deal, guys.

462
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 1: Yeah.

463
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 2: They also would say, well, I still zoom into all

464
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 2: the interviews at night, so when we interview ten guys

465
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 2: at night, I'm sitting right there on the computer, and

466
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 2: any human being would say it is not the same

467
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 2: that being there. Andy Reid told me none of this matters, right,

468
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 2: the workouts, the medical I have nothing to do with

469
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 2: as the head coach, out of my hands. The only

470
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 2: thing that I come here for is when that guy

471
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 2: walks into the room, Trent McDuffie, and for the first

472
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: time I meet him and get to talk to him

473
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 2: and just get a feel for be in the league

474
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,879
Speaker 2: long enough, just like all those guys, I get to

475
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 2: introduce myself and talk to him and see how he

476
00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 2: interacts with my coaches. We tape tape that too. But

477
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 2: the react you've interviewed people, what's your reaction interviewing someone

478
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 2: for your show when they're on zoom or when you're

479
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 2: sitting next to him in person, when you're interviewing someone

480
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 2: for the volume in person at you know, meeting him

481
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:17,679
Speaker 2: for lunch then a telephone call. It's dramatically different. And

482
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 2: these are million dollar investments. So I don't agree with

483
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 2: them not coming. Can I understand some of the stuff.

484
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 2: You're not obligated to talk to the media. You don't

485
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,679
Speaker 2: have to go to that little thing that Andy goes to.

486
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 2: Belichick never did, never went. He still showed up for

487
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 2: all the other stuff, the football stuff, which is very important.

488
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 2: One thing with the forty nine ers, like they've hit

489
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 2: on a lot of picks in the third, fourth, and

490
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:42,919
Speaker 2: fifth round. They've missed on a lot of high picks.

491
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 2: So you know, if Andy Reid's going to be there,

492
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 2: if Belichick went for forty years, Pete Carroll never missed it,

493
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 2: there's definitely some value there. And I'm not these guys

494
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 2: aren't lazy individuals, but I do think they're they're wrong,

495
00:25:58,040 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 2: And I mean, who am I to tell them? But

496
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 2: I just that there's a value there. Clearly the best

497
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 2: coach in the league. If you said, hey, there's a

498
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 2: podcasting convention, Coward's going, Rogan's going, and Big Cat's going,

499
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 2: Should I go? Probably right, It's like, what are we doing?

500
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,159
Speaker 2: You know I would get if Kylea just won the

501
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 2: Super Bowl and he was off with his family, like

502
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 2: you lost. This draft's kind of big McVeigh. You've been

503
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 2: They got knocked out in the first round, right, but

504
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,639
Speaker 2: they just can't stay I saw a less sneed somewhere.

505
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 2: He didn't even go like it's not pinching pennies. His

506
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 2: league's making so much money. I can't get behind the

507
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 2: interview meeting these guys because it is important. And then

508
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 2: you talked a lot of it. Then what happens middle

509
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 2: of the season. This guy can't learn, This guy can't

510
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,439
Speaker 2: figure it out. It's not this guy. Well, you at

511
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 2: the opportunity to meet the guy, right, you could have

512
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 2: controlled some more of it. So coaches are always quick

513
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,719
Speaker 2: to complain when they don't want to do some of this,

514
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:55,959
Speaker 2: and in fairness like this is not the combines, more

515
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 2: about the scouting staff. But ultimately, once the guy's drafted,

516
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 2: the coaches around and I'm a lot more than GM

517
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 2: and the.

518
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:05,320
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Speaker 1: Will I always try to stay away from too many

545
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,639
Speaker 1: conversations with the suits on the fifth floor. You just

546
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 1: get in trouble when you're on the air and you

547
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 1: get in the company of powerful men. And Michael Mulverhill,

548
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 1: the President of Insights and Analytics at Fox across the board,

549
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 1: is one of those powerful guys. But he's so disarming

550
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 1: first of all, and second of all, he's got I mean,

551
00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 1: it's a perfect title, Insights and Analytics. There's so many things.

552
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 1: I don't really talk a ton about my industry. If

553
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 1: I do, Michael's the guy at Fox that I talk to.

554
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: So there's a kind of a myriad of topics here.

555
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 1: Let's start with something we've never seen before. Caitlin Clark. Now,

556
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 1: years ago, when Tiger Woods came into golf, there was

557
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 1: this sense that, oh, golf ratings are going to explode.

558
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: And my takeaway was, no, when Tiger leaves. I mean,

559
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: three million people take up golf a year and three

560
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: million people quit. It's hard, but there are these Caitlyn Clark,

561
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:38,719
Speaker 1: Michael Jordan, figures in our life that are just unique

562
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 1: and spectacular. Women's ratings have been growing. Do you see

563
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:49,479
Speaker 1: Caitlin Clark as the creator of a new reality or

564
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 1: to some degree she's just a spectacular unicorn with her style,

565
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 1: tenacity and excellence for multiple years.

566
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 5: That's a great place to start. And first of all,

567
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 5: thanks for having me. I really enjoy doing this with

568
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,280
Speaker 5: you from time to time. I also try to avoid

569
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 5: having conversations with powerful people up here on the fifth Blok.

570
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 3: And I have that in common.

571
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 5: Look, certainly, this is a unique moment in the evolution

572
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 5: of interest in women's sports. I don't think we've ever

573
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 5: seen such a groundswell in interest across certainly basketball, collegiate volleyball,

574
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 5: international soccer. I think what we're seeing is the payoff

575
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 5: of literally over fifty years of title nind and the

576
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 5: way that that's changed the way that girls have access

577
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 5: to sports, and the way that both men and women

578
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 5: think about women's athletics, and it's brought us to this

579
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 5: moment where college basketball ratings on the women's side are

580
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 5: up sixty percent across all networks, and Caitlin Clark's game

581
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 5: on Sunday against Ohio State did almost three and a

582
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 5: half million viewers, and I think your question is the

583
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 5: right one. You know, what does this mean going forward?

584
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 5: And is Caitlin at Unicorn? And I don't think she is.

585
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 5: I think that what she is is she's at the

586
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 5: forefront of an evolution in the skill level that we

587
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 5: see in women's basketball and the players that are coming

588
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 5: up behind her, whether that's Pagebeckers who's coming back for

589
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 5: another year at Connecticut or Juju Watkins who has several

590
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 5: years to go at Southern cal and obviously they'll be

591
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 5: part of the Big Ten next year. I think she's

592
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 5: just on the leading edge of a new generation of

593
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 5: players that are elevating the game. I think Tiger Woods

594
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 5: is an interesting precedent as well. I think you could

595
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 5: even go back as far as the nineteen eighties NBA

596
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 5: where Magic and then Jordan entered the league and they

597
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 5: were at a skill level that we hadn't seen before,

598
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 5: but they just represented an evolution of the game that

599
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 5: then continued even after they had moved on. So I

600
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 5: think once Caitlin moves on to the WNBA, I'm not

601
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 5: sure that we'll see viewership at the collegiate level. That's

602
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 5: exactly what we're seeing this year, but I don't think

603
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 5: it's a reset back to where we were five years

604
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 5: ago either. I think a permanent step forward has happened,

605
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 5: and we're still going to see some pretty strong interest

606
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 5: in the future.

607
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 1: Obviously, the Dallas Cowboys when they're viable, rate very well

608
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 1: with the NFL, and there are markets right now that

609
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 1: are underachieving Chicago, New York. You just wish the teams

610
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 1: were better. I've always argued it's hard to understand how

611
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 1: big the influence of the forty nine ers is unless

612
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 1: you live out west. If the Niners are playing in

613
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 1: your stadium, they've got forty percent of the seats. Other

614
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 1: than maybe Denver, they're the Yankees of the West coast

615
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 1: that they literally fill your stadium. So I've always thought

616
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 1: the Niners were undervalued as an NFL market. San Francisco's

617
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 1: obviously a big city, and I do wonder about Pittsburgh

618
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 1: that was so dominant for years, but it's a small

619
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 1: city relative to other big markets. So if I said

620
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 1: to you six best, if Fox could pick and now

621
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 1: these days you guys share AFC NFC, if I said

622
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 1: to you, all things considered, market brand quarterback, can you

623
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 1: unveil like the top six or seven picks in this league.

624
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's an interesting way of framing it, right, because

625
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 5: there's a very clear top two, and then there's a gap,

626
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 5: and it's sort of an open question as to what

627
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 5: team might step up and become the third most powerful

628
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 5: brand because for years, at least on the NFC side,

629
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 5: it was Dallas and Green Bay. Well, on the side

630
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 5: it's still Dallas. It's probably always going to be Dallas.

631
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 5: It could be Green Bay again, but I think right

632
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 5: now there's a little bit of a blank space that

633
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 5: some team could step into and become that third marquee brand. Certainly,

634
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 5: it's been Dallas for a long time now. Kansas City's

635
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 5: right alongside them. I think when we talk about our

636
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 5: schedule and when we talked to the league about what

637
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 5: we would like to have for next season, Dallas and

638
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 5: Kansas City very clearly have separated themselves from the rest

639
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 5: of the league. And then there are a number of

640
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:14,840
Speaker 5: teams that have the potential to become that third marquee team.

641
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 5: Philadelphia definitely is one. Philadelphia was a holding penalty away

642
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 5: from sending the Super Bowl to overtime two seasons ago.

643
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 5: They obviously struggled second half of this season, but that's

644
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 5: a big brand. They've got exciting star players. The market

645
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 5: of Philadelphia, it's you know, not only is it one

646
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 5: of the biggest cities in the country, but it rates

647
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 5: extremely well. Philadelphia contributes more viewers to our national viewership

648
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 5: than any other city. So if Philly can bounce back

649
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:46,919
Speaker 5: from that tough second half that they had last year,

650
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 5: they're definitely eligible to become that third big brand. I

651
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 5: think you're right about San Francisco. San Francisco's another team

652
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 5: was very close to winning a championship. Deep and talented

653
00:34:57,640 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 5: on both sides of the ball, fun to watch. They

654
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 5: play that kind of positionless offense that I think is

655
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 5: very watchable and just fun. So San Francisco is another one.

656
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 5: Still a lot of built in following for the Packers.

657
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:12,879
Speaker 5: They looked a lot better in December than they did

658
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:15,879
Speaker 5: in September, which is what they to be, so they

659
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:19,319
Speaker 5: have the potential to step up. I think Buffalo is

660
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 5: a giant. I think what's interesting with Buffalo is that

661
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:26,840
Speaker 5: not only is it the quality of the team and

662
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:30,240
Speaker 5: the quality of Josh Allen, but there's just a culture

663
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 5: around that team and the idea of the Bills Mafia

664
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:37,879
Speaker 5: and Buffalo being a super passionate football city that has

665
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 5: been at the doorstep of a championship a couple times

666
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 5: and just never quite got there. They've got a little

667
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 5: bit of that Chicago of the NFL feeling, right where

668
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 5: if they the big game, that becomes an enormous national story.

669
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 3: And you could probably put Detroit in that category.

670
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:55,399
Speaker 5: Two.

671
00:35:56,520 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 1: I was thinking of my yeah, they travel well. The

672
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 1: Lions travel like crazy this year.

673
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, I think Detroit And look, I grew up

674
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,240
Speaker 5: in Pittsburgh, right, so I'm very familiar with that team

675
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:10,279
Speaker 5: and that city. Detroit and Pittsburgh are sort of in

676
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 5: similar circumstances where they're both industrial Midwestern cities where economic

677
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 5: realities forced a lot of people to move away, Right.

678
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 5: So You've got a lot of former Pittsburgh's and a

679
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 5: lot of former Michiganers around the country, And so when

680
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:28,279
Speaker 5: the Steelers go on the road, there's always a lot

681
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 5: of Steeler fans there because people have relocated. A lot

682
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 5: of people from Detroit a relocated I think those teams

683
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 5: from the industrial Midwest, we think of them as traveling

684
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 5: well because a lot of people used to live there

685
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 5: and now they've gone to the sun Belt and they

686
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 5: go to the road games.

687
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 1: You know, TV rights as a whole. I can remember

688
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 1: reading articles, sports illustrated cover articles. You know, when's it

689
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 1: going to end? You can't pay this much for TV rights. Well,

690
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 1: now you've got Amazon Apple on the doorstep of you know,

691
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 1: either buying networks or buying right So the numbers, you know,

692
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 1: you need content obviously, the cliche content's king. It just

693
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 1: is fill the bandwidth. That's what they do. You know,

694
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:20,840
Speaker 1: it's interesting, I work in cable. Explain this to me.

695
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 1: So Cable obviously has been eroding for several years, for

696
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 1: about a decade. Talked about for about six seven years,

697
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 1: but you know, about ten years ago people started. People

698
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:33,359
Speaker 1: within the industry didn't talk about it publicly. They tried

699
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 1: to keep it secret, but it started happening. But yet

700
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:41,279
Speaker 1: the ability by Fox to team with YouTube create streaming

701
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 1: eventually here is stemming some of the losses. My show,

702
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:50,479
Speaker 1: for instance, it's we were up twenty five or something

703
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 1: percent this year and cable is eroding, and I've I'm

704
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 1: gonna throw something at you. It's theoretical and Michael just

705
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,880
Speaker 1: literally take a pinatit to it if it's crazy.

706
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:04,399
Speaker 3: But I have made this argument.

707
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 1: That if TikTok, because of government regulations, was regulated to

708
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 1: a level that only two things could be on it,

709
00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 1: culinary stuff and pet stuff, and it lost seventy percent

710
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 1: of its audience, But culinary and pet videos were all

711
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 1: that was allowed or all that flourished, that it would

712
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 1: be an incredibly dynamic platform for those two right industries. Well,

713
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 1: television now cable TV is sports and politics, Linear TV

714
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,760
Speaker 1: sports and politics. So people say cable's dying, and I'm like, no,

715
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 1: yes it is, but it's overwhelming. We don't share it

716
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,480
Speaker 1: with anybody. We share it with Trump and Biden for

717
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 1: five Otherwise, television's now dominated by the industry I grew

718
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 1: up in. So is that as the platform may be

719
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 1: dissolving or shrinking or dressing, it's now wholly owned by

720
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:05,800
Speaker 1: two factors, of which it should be noted, Fox, between

721
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 1: politics and sports, is well suited to flourish. So when

722
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:14,279
Speaker 1: you look at the cable erosion, they've been talking about

723
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 1: newspaper erosion forever. New York Times is more powerful than ever,

724
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 1: in my opinion, they bought the Athletic which for four

725
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 1: or five hundred million dollars I don't know how to

726
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:25,879
Speaker 1: position it or if you can talk about it too much?

727
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 1: But what do you make of the cable erosion? But

728
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 1: some of those losses appear to be being are stemmed

729
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:36,440
Speaker 1: by sports gambling, the increased dominance of sports by YouTube

730
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 1: and relationships. Talk me through how you view that.

731
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's an incredibly rich topic, right, and that is

732
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 5: what everybody in our business spends a lot of our

733
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 5: time thinking about. Is how is that? How is that

734
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:53,760
Speaker 5: cable business changing? What does it mean to our revenue streams?

735
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,960
Speaker 5: What's going to mean to sports rights going forward? I

736
00:39:57,000 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 5: think if you want to understand our business, a good

737
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 5: place to start is to simply understand that for the

738
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 5: entire time that you and I have been doing what

739
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 5: we do, sports content has in some way been subsidized

740
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 5: by non sports fan.

741
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 3: Who paid for cable TV.

742
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 5: And so for the last forty years, while media has

743
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 5: changed incalculably, what we've always seen in sports is a

744
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 5: rising number of PATV subscribers, more people paying for content,

745
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:33,839
Speaker 5: and so the pool of money that's available to us

746
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 5: in sports has just grown and grown and grown. Nobody

747
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 5: our age or younger, has ever really known what it

748
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:44,280
Speaker 5: means to be in a contracting sports economy. Well, now,

749
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 5: because of that what you're describing where people are getting

750
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 5: out of the cable bundle, entertainment viewers are figuring out

751
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 5: that they can get the content they want from streaming platforms,

752
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 5: and so fewer and fewer non sports fans are paying

753
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 5: for sports content. That era of subsidization is either coming

754
00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:08,280
Speaker 5: to an end or it's already over, and that pool

755
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 5: that we have to pay for sports rights is going

756
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 5: to contract, and it forces all of us to be

757
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 5: a little bit more disciplined in our deal making and

758
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 5: in the way that we consider rights opportunities. But what's

759
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 5: also interesting there is that as that number of people

760
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:29,239
Speaker 5: that are subscribing to cable TV shrinks and it goes

761
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:33,360
Speaker 5: from nearly one hundred million to now closer to seventy million,

762
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:36,840
Speaker 5: you know, I believe that most of the people that

763
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 5: are getting out of the sports, that are getting out

764
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,880
Speaker 5: of the PayTV bundle, they're not really big sports fans.

765
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 5: They're people who are subscribing to cable for entertainment content.

766
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 5: Now they're getting their entertainment content from Netflix and from

767
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 5: Prime Video, Disney Plus. And what that means is that

768
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 5: your number of cable subscribers is going down. The revenue

769
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 5: associate with those subscribers is going down. And yet because

770
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 5: those people that are leaving the bundle aren't sports fans,

771
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:10,320
Speaker 5: the people that are left behind are spending more of

772
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 5: their time on sports and on twenty four hour news.

773
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:16,400
Speaker 5: And so here we are for this year to date,

774
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 5: FS one viewership is up seven percent, right, may not

775
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 5: sound like a lot, but when you're in an environment

776
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 5: of declining subscribers, to have any growth is pretty noteworthy.

777
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 5: Your show is growing, Nick Wright's show is growing. We

778
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 5: see shows on ESPN that are still growing. If you

779
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 5: talk about live events, NFL college football, we talked about

780
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:40,800
Speaker 5: women's basketball earlier. NASCAR has been up the last couple weeks.

781
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 5: There's a lot out there that's growing. And so sort

782
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 5: of the paradox of it is that the viewership for

783
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 5: sports in many many cases is going up, and yet

784
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 5: because that subscriber base is eroding, the revenue associated with

785
00:42:56,920 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 5: sports TV is going down. And so there's a little

786
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 5: bit of a decoupling between popularity and revenue generation. And

787
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 5: I think it's very confusing to people because you're constantly

788
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:12,480
Speaker 5: reading about record ratings for the Super Bowl, record ratings

789
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 5: for college football, and yet we and companies like ours

790
00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:22,400
Speaker 5: don't necessarily have the same The revenue streams that we

791
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 5: draw on to make these deals aren't as powerful as

792
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:26,719
Speaker 5: they were even just a couple of years ago.

793
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 3: So that's a transformational change. It's I think it's.

794
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:36,680
Speaker 5: A major adjustment for people who do what I do

795
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:40,719
Speaker 5: and who have only ever known and expanding sports economy,

796
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 5: And it's going to affect all of us, right It

797
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 5: affects what's available to spend on rights, it affects what's

798
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 5: available to spend on talent, It affects people like me

799
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 5: right like, we all are going to have to sort

800
00:43:55,200 --> 00:44:00,560
Speaker 5: of redemonstrate and re establish our value because we can't

801
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:04,320
Speaker 5: just rely on the rising tide of growing cable revenue.

802
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:06,720
Speaker 5: So that's kind of a long explanation, but that's probably

803
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 5: as best as I can put in the volume.

804
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:14,839
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,

805
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 1: take a moment, rate and review