Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller.
Speaker 2: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,
Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven news.
Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever
Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast.
Speaker 3: Now, let's turn to one of the other large stories
Speaker 3: today at Bloomberg Exclusive that China planning to broaden a
Speaker 3: ban on the use of iPhones and sensitive departments to
Speaker 3: government backed agencies and state companies in China. Anurag Runna
Speaker 3: is our senior tech analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence and he
Speaker 3: joins us by zoom Now. Anurrag, it sounds like this
Speaker 3: latest story is essentially expanding the scope of these restrictions.
Speaker 4: They were already banned.
Speaker 3: Well, they weren't banned, it sounds like, But it sounds
Speaker 3: like for some reason, the markets believe that at the
Speaker 3: scope is much broader than it was yesterday at the
Speaker 3: Wall Street Journal report coming out that you know, people
Speaker 3: were not being asked not to bring their iPhones in.
Speaker 4: Is that?
Speaker 3: Is that right here?
Speaker 5: So I'll tell you.
Speaker 6: I talked to the analysts in Asia and they basically said, listen,
Speaker 6: if you are a Chinese government official, you were not
Speaker 6: you were it was basically bad manners for you to
Speaker 6: even show your iPhone in the office, So you have
Speaker 6: I mean, this is just a This was not to
Speaker 6: be used at work at all and under any circumstances.
Speaker 6: So this is just an extension of that. But to
Speaker 6: be very frank I mean this, you know, financially, I
Speaker 6: would say, people government official not buying the iPhone is
Speaker 6: not going to be material for Apple. But the question
Speaker 6: really is not so much about that. The question is
Speaker 6: is the close relationship that China has had with Apple
Speaker 6: or the Apple has had with China, are we seeing
Speaker 6: some kind of indent in that. I think that is
Speaker 6: the biggest question here, because as everybody knows, Apple is
Speaker 6: very dependent on China for all its parts, all the assembly,
Speaker 6: and frankly, you know you were to look at all
Speaker 6: the US companies, Apple's done so much better than anybody
Speaker 6: else since even the tartafar begins, Apple was basically insulated
Speaker 6: from all of that.
Speaker 3: Well, and Apple shares I guess, reacting here down three
Speaker 3: point seven percent. But I mean, do we have any
Speaker 3: indication that this would spread not just to the I
Speaker 3: guess twenty percent of sales roughly that China that Apple
Speaker 3: does in China, but also to the manufacturing end or
Speaker 3: is that just kind of the market's thinking ahead.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean that's really what the big you know,
Speaker 6: the danger here is you know them nobody, you know,
Speaker 6: few government officials not buying the iPhone is not going
Speaker 6: to move the needle at all for Apple. But the
Speaker 6: question really is, you know, are they going to try
Speaker 6: to restrict other things We're going to have, you know, tariffs,
Speaker 6: it's all those things that are coming into play. But
Speaker 6: you know, we'll find out, I would say, in the
Speaker 6: next six to twelve months, if there is any change
Speaker 6: in relationship. Apple's done a phenomenal job of its relationship,
Speaker 6: but China. It employs millions of people in China, not
Speaker 6: directly through their factories, and you know it, as you said,
Speaker 6: it's nineteen percent of Apple's revenue. So it is very
Speaker 6: overly dependent on China for a lot of things. So
Speaker 6: you know, I'm sure they are hoping that none of
Speaker 6: that changes. Because of recent events between the US and China.
Speaker 2: Apple shares not doing poorly they're up thirty five thirty
Speaker 2: six percent year to date, but they have dipped below
Speaker 2: their one hundred day moving average right now trading at
Speaker 2: one hundred and seventy six dollars.
Speaker 4: Even what do you think about about the stock on rag.
Speaker 6: See when you look at it. I think a lot
Speaker 6: will depend on this overhang now, because next week we're
Speaker 6: going to see the new iPhone coming out, the iPhone fifteen.
Speaker 6: You know, we think it's going to do well. But
Speaker 6: at the same time, now we have another unnecessary cloud
Speaker 6: on top of this stock, so we have to figure
Speaker 6: out what this really means. I do not know whether
Speaker 6: when Apple announces the iPhone of if they're going to
Speaker 6: make any comment on any of these news breaks, because
Speaker 6: I think as long as this overhang is there, you know,
Speaker 6: Apple will have a hard time in the near future.
Speaker 3: How has Apple typically interacted with the Chinese government.
Speaker 6: It's been amazing. I mean, they have done so much
Speaker 6: better than any other company in the Western world. They
Speaker 6: were not affected by any of the bands. They are
Speaker 6: very you know, widely welcome there. In fact, you know,
Speaker 6: one of the things we saw last year there was
Speaker 6: some issue with the with the production of the Pro
Speaker 6: model because of COVID nineteen restrictions in China, and that
Speaker 6: led to some you know, shortfall of shipments. But frankly,
Speaker 6: right about a month month and a half after that,
Speaker 6: China changed their COVID policies. Now I'm not saying they
Speaker 6: did it because of Apple, but they have been very
Speaker 6: friendly to Apple, and Apple's been very nice to them.
Speaker 4: What's the biggest opportunity for Apple? Is it India?
Speaker 6: It is China. Actually, from a mathematical point of view,
Speaker 6: India is going to be very long term because you know,
Speaker 6: the gdpeople are capital for India is only twenty five
Speaker 6: hundred dollars, while in China it's about close to thirteen
Speaker 6: thousand dollars.
Speaker 3: Just quickly here an rag because we only have about
Speaker 3: a minute left. What should we expect next week from
Speaker 3: the announcement of these new products? Is there anything that
Speaker 3: could really be a game changer?
Speaker 6: I think the question really is the highest end model
Speaker 6: that they have, it's the iPhone Promax model. I'm looking for.
Speaker 6: The biggest thing we are looking for is, you know,
Speaker 6: what's the price of that product? Because that price has
Speaker 6: remained constant for the last three years. If there is
Speaker 6: any changes to that price, I mean that really does
Speaker 6: wonders to the iPhone sales for the next twelve months,
Speaker 6: because that model itself is supposed to have a very
Speaker 6: high end camera, much better than anything Apple's done in
Speaker 6: the past.
Speaker 4: Simone's an Android user. No, I'm sorry to say.
Speaker 3: I'm an iPhone user in part because of the because
Speaker 3: of the camera well, and also because I moved abroad
Speaker 3: and had to get an iPhone. I can't remember the
Speaker 3: actually irational, but.
Speaker 2: Android users, I feel like they spoil a fun for
Speaker 2: just family.
Speaker 3: John Tucker group chats who is an andreid.
Speaker 4: He has a green bubble. John Tucker has a green bubble.
Speaker 7: I thought, you know that that sounded like an insult,
Speaker 7: but then Matt went on to explain, you know, mister
Speaker 7: Spock would have anything.
Speaker 4: I think mister Spock would be and Andrew, which.
Speaker 8: I take as an attack on my ears.
Speaker 2: No, it's because you're a very technical, technically savvy man.
Speaker 4: All right, Honor Agrana, thanks very much for joining us.
Speaker 9: You're listening to the Team Ken's Are Live program Bloomberg
Speaker 9: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
Speaker 9: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen
Speaker 9: on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2: Let's get over to our legal reporter Ava Benny Morrison
Speaker 2: right now, she's at courthouse here in New York talk
Speaker 2: about breaking news on the FTX case. We have seen
Speaker 2: across the Bloomberg terminal that Ryan Salome, formerly of.
Speaker 3: FTX, he's planning to play guilty.
Speaker 2: It sounds like exactly he was as an executive along
Speaker 2: with SBF with Sam Bankman freed, and it looks like
Speaker 2: he's going to plead guildy criminal charges over the collapse
Speaker 2: of that cryptocurrency exchange EVA.
Speaker 4: What do we know?
Speaker 10: We know that Ryan Salame has been in negotiations with
Speaker 10: prosecutors for a while. Now today he is going to
Speaker 10: front the federal courthouse in downtown Manhattan and enter ala
Speaker 10: of guilty to criminal charges. We don't know yet what
Speaker 10: exactly what those charges are or whether that means he
Speaker 10: will also be a cooperating witness and agree to testify
Speaker 10: against Bankman freed or not.
Speaker 3: Yeah, what does this mean for the potential cases against
Speaker 3: some of the other players in this You know Bankman Freed,
Speaker 3: some of his other former colleagues, Gary Wayang Caro, Allison,
Speaker 3: Shad Singh, you know, what do we understand and what
Speaker 3: does your reporting suggest about his willingness to cooperate with
Speaker 3: prosecutors there?
Speaker 10: Well, from our reporting and talking to different sources, the
Speaker 10: sense we've got is Ryan has been digging his heels
Speaker 10: in about corporating with the prosecutors, So we understand that
Speaker 10: this will more than likely be a plea deal. He
Speaker 10: will agree to plead guilty to certain charges, but he
Speaker 10: doesn't want to testify against Sam bakman Fred and prosecutors
Speaker 10: actually may suggested that in a court filing a few
Speaker 10: weeks ago, saying that Ryan Salomey had said he would
Speaker 10: take the fifth if he was called to testify. Worth
Speaker 10: noting here that prosecutors already have three former executives from
Speaker 10: FTX and alome To Research, Caroline Nelson, Gary Wang, and
Speaker 10: Nashad Singh, who have pleaded guilty to their conduct as
Speaker 10: well and have agreed to cooperate with prosecutors.
Speaker 4: What do we know about how much money these guys
Speaker 4: have or gals?
Speaker 2: In terms of Carolyn Ellison, you know, I think it's
Speaker 2: interesting that they're able to mount these legal defenses and
Speaker 2: they're not using state appointed lawyers, So do they have
Speaker 2: still a ton of cash stashed away.
Speaker 10: That's a really good question. We know that some of
Speaker 10: these executives received huge loans from Alamina Research. We're talking
Speaker 10: tens of millions of dollars here, But some of the
Speaker 10: executives like Nishead Singh, who have previously played guilty, have
Speaker 10: also agreed to forfeit some of their assets, including property.
Speaker 10: So it's unclear, but it's a really good question. They're
Speaker 10: not using public defenders, they're using private attorneys, so it'd
Speaker 10: be interesting to see just how much money they still
Speaker 10: have and whether that could potentially be called back by
Speaker 10: the FTX, bankruptcy estate.
Speaker 6: AVA.
Speaker 3: Really interesting stuff. Thank you for saying across this. This
Speaker 3: is Eva Benny Morrison. She's our legal reporter for Bloomberg
Speaker 3: News at the Courthouse in Manhattan.
Speaker 9: You're listening to the teeth catch our line program Bloomberg
Speaker 9: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
Speaker 9: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 9: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 9: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: Now it's our time of the Thursday where we talk
Speaker 3: to Barry rid Holts, our Bloomer opinion colonists, founder of
Speaker 3: Ritsholt Wealth Management and host of Masters in Business. Love
Speaker 3: chatting with you always bear it and you have a
Speaker 3: bit of an interesting take out. You quote William Goldman,
Speaker 3: the scriptwriter for Butch Cassidy and The Sun Dance Kids.
Speaker 3: All the Presidents, Man, marathon Man, etcetera. Nobody knows Princess
Speaker 3: Princess Bride. There's too many, you.
Speaker 4: Can get through all of them.
Speaker 3: There's a laundry list, marathon Man, etcetera. Anyway, point being,
Speaker 3: nobody knows anything. So Wall Street doesn't know anything either.
Speaker 11: Very well, well, let me give you a little context
Speaker 11: about what led Goldman to write that in his book
Speaker 11: Adventures in the Screen Trade. So there was a couple
Speaker 11: of guys named Lucas and Spielberg shopping moving around.
Speaker 8: They couldn't get it made, and it.
Speaker 11: Was called Raiders of the Lost Dark, and everybody turned
Speaker 11: them down on it. And not long after that, Star
Speaker 11: or before that, Star Wars was another film that all
Speaker 11: the major studio execs turned down. And I kind of
Speaker 11: was reminded of this because very quietly in the midst
Speaker 11: of Barbenheimer, John Wick four snuck out and did nearly
Speaker 11: half a billion dollars in box office, which is a
Speaker 11: huge number for a fourth sequel of Just to Shoot
Speaker 11: Him Up. And I did a little research and discovered
Speaker 11: nobody in Hollywood wanted to make the first Jock John
Speaker 11: Wick film.
Speaker 8: And it's a reminder.
Speaker 11: That experts who are thinking about the future really have
Speaker 11: very little expertise as to what's gonna happen next quarter,
Speaker 11: next year, next decade.
Speaker 8: Nobody knows anything.
Speaker 2: That I mean, this reminds me of the R Star
Speaker 2: debate that we're having. It seems beyond ridiculous. I mean,
Speaker 2: it's fine if you want to talk about whether or
Speaker 2: not the Fed's going to raise rates or cut but
Speaker 2: when you get into that kind of unknowable, it just
Speaker 2: is an exercise in futility.
Speaker 3: Purely theoretical.
Speaker 2: And we will be having that discussion this afternoon with
Speaker 2: John Williams at three thirty pm on Bloomberg Television.
Speaker 3: But can I take you to the Wall Street Angleberry,
Speaker 3: because we had this great story out earlier this week,
Speaker 3: I think yesterday, I think Wall Street stock Market calls
Speaker 3: very by firm, end by floor, and I'm just illustrating,
Speaker 3: perhaps your point the cell side research teams are farm
Speaker 3: are negative on you as equities than the investment managed teams.
Speaker 3: You can see this even playing out within Morgan Stanley.
Speaker 3: So how do you how do you live in this
Speaker 3: in this sort of world if you are if you're
Speaker 3: a trader, So first.
Speaker 11: It's really important to separate the signal from the noise.
Speaker 11: When I was on a trading desk, my habit was
Speaker 11: to create a reading list but not read anything until
Speaker 11: after four o'clock because if you read something early in
Speaker 11: the morning, it very often would influence how you trade it.
Speaker 11: And in fact, there have been academic studies that have
Speaker 11: looked as to how sunny or rainy it is in
Speaker 11: New York City, and the actual weather has an impact
Speaker 11: on whether or not markets trade up a little bit
Speaker 11: or trade down a little bit. Your psyche is so
Speaker 11: malleable in ways that you're just wholly unaware of that.
Speaker 11: A nice day means you're more optimistic, and hey, it's
Speaker 11: beautiful out, and you tend to be more of a buyer.
Speaker 11: So you really have to know yourself. You really have
Speaker 11: to understand what's driving your decision making, and that's really
Speaker 11: really difficult for people to do. We are just very
Speaker 11: much unaware of our internal thought process. We think we're
Speaker 11: making independent decisions, but lots of little influences affect how
Speaker 11: we invest, how we trade, how we make decisions.
Speaker 4: Was John Wick four, any good? Did you watch four?
Speaker 8: I haven't seen four yet.
Speaker 11: I loved the first one, and I found the second
Speaker 11: one very amusing.
Speaker 8: I haven't seen three yet.
Speaker 11: What I kind of do is like what I did
Speaker 11: with Guardians of the Galaxy when the third one came out.
Speaker 11: I watched the first one, I watched the second one,
Speaker 11: and then we went to the movies to see the
Speaker 11: third one in three consecutive days. By the way, John
Speaker 11: Wick five already approved it's going to be out in
Speaker 11: twenty twenty six. Let me just put a little flesh
Speaker 11: on the b owns as to how much money this
Speaker 11: film made.
Speaker 8: So it was made independently. The guys who were.
Speaker 11: The choreographers and stuntmen for the Matrix movies were the
Speaker 11: co directors. They had Keanu Reeves attached to this. No
Speaker 11: one would make it, so they made it as an
Speaker 11: independent film. They self funded it. It costs twenty million dollars. Today,
Speaker 11: the John Wick franchise has generated two billion dollars between
Speaker 11: the box office, the streaming rights.
Speaker 8: There was a spinoff film.
Speaker 11: There was a television series, comic books, video games, two
Speaker 11: billion dollars. They couldn't get anybody to greenlight a twenty
Speaker 11: million dollar movie it And now turn around and let's
Speaker 11: apply this to investors. Which ETF, which mutual fund? What's
Speaker 11: the FED gonna do? Where're the mark? Where's the market
Speaker 11: gonna be? Instead of focusing on next month or next quarter.
Speaker 11: The one thing we know is that over ten and
Speaker 11: twenty year period we have a pretty good idea of
Speaker 11: what assa class returns are going to be. Here's what
Speaker 11: stocks return, Here's what bonds return. And people have to
Speaker 11: stop thinking about tomorrow and start thinking about, hey, what
Speaker 11: about my kids, what about my retirement, what about my grandkids.
Speaker 11: That's a way to defeat the nobody knows anything sort
Speaker 11: of philosophy.
Speaker 4: You know what I've noticed.
Speaker 2: I've noticed here at work that a lot of people
Speaker 2: underestimate the allure of cars when it comes to selling clicks,
Speaker 2: for example, And the same is true in movies, right
Speaker 2: because that's the part of the part of the equation
Speaker 2: that made John Wick such a big teller. He has
Speaker 2: a boss for twenty nine in the first one. I
Speaker 2: think he has a Chevelle SS in the second one.
Speaker 2: And I guess people who don't care about cars really
Speaker 2: don't see the draw, but people who do are going
Speaker 2: to tune in for this kind of thing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Matt's looking at me, and I'm kind of rolling
Speaker 3: my eyes because I have to say, I don't know cars.
Speaker 3: I have a hybrid.
Speaker 8: But but in the John Wick movie, the mcguindy that
Speaker 8: drives the plot is a bunch of hoodlums see his
Speaker 8: mustang and come to his house to steal it, not
Speaker 8: realizing this is one of the most deadly hit men
Speaker 8: in film lore. And so that's what starts the.
Speaker 4: Whole and they kill his dog, right.
Speaker 11: And that I need you to take this kill his dog,
Speaker 11: which is recently deceased wife had given to him.
Speaker 8: It is just a great plot.
Speaker 2: Barry, thanks so much for joining us. Barrier Holts on
Speaker 2: John Wick in the Markets.
Speaker 9: You're listening to the Team Ken'ser Live program Bloomberg Markets
Speaker 9: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the
Speaker 9: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on
Speaker 9: demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2: I am excited to welcome the mack E. Sales manager
Speaker 2: for the Ford Motor Company, Michael Sago joins us to
Speaker 2: talk about what's going on in this uh in this
Speaker 2: quickly growing industry with really one of I think the
Speaker 2: first standout products in American evs. Michael, thanks so much
Speaker 2: for joining us. What does sales look like now for
Speaker 2: the Machi? I mean I started seeing a lot more
Speaker 2: of them last year and they've become they've become very present,
Speaker 2: at least in this region. How many do you sell
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two and how many do you want
Speaker 2: to sell in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 12: So we've had great sales in the last couple of months.
Speaker 12: So we actually took a bit of downtime earlier in
Speaker 12: the year to revamp our production facilities to make sure
Speaker 12: that we could meet demand for the Makis. So what's
Speaker 12: great now is a lot of those extra units that
Speaker 12: we've been able to produce are now out there in
Speaker 12: the market and available for purchase and for customers to
Speaker 12: get their hands on.
Speaker 3: We're also hearing about the Mustang Machi Rally as well,
Speaker 3: which the Verge actually called the Ford's off roadius performance
Speaker 3: EVY yet tell us about the tell us all about
Speaker 3: what this is about.
Speaker 12: Love it so really excited to write another chapter in
Speaker 12: Mustang's nearly six decade storied history with a Mustang Machi Rally. So,
Speaker 12: as you know, it's actually a four door suv that's
Speaker 12: all electric, seats five passengers, and we've had that vehicle
Speaker 12: and market for a couple of years.
Speaker 13: And this new variant, the Rally.
Speaker 12: Allows us to go off the pavement and confidently onto
Speaker 12: the dirt road. So this is a rally inspired electric
Speaker 12: suv with really aggressive rally styling all around and lots
Speaker 12: of extra capability built in. We've raised the vehicle twenty
Speaker 12: five millimeters, we have off road tires on it, we
Speaker 12: have extra special tune suspension for off roading. And this
Speaker 12: thing is going to be a beast. It's going to
Speaker 12: have at least six hundred and fifty pound feet of
Speaker 12: torque and do zero to sixty in under three point
Speaker 12: five seconds.
Speaker 4: We're just looking at pictures of it there.
Speaker 2: What I instantly wonder is why isn't it called a raptor,
Speaker 2: you know, because in the at least in the gas
Speaker 2: side of the business, when Ford makes an off road vehicle,
Speaker 2: at least in terms of the F one fifty and
Speaker 2: the Bronco. If it's if it's the pinnacle of the
Speaker 2: off road offering, if it's the Apex Predator, you now
Speaker 2: have the Raptor brand.
Speaker 13: Great question.
Speaker 12: So this is definitely different from a Raptor or a Bronco.
Speaker 12: This is the Machi Rally is not necessarily meant to
Speaker 12: be a rock crawler, but it's meant to perform really
Speaker 12: well at high speed on loose surfaces, similar to what
Speaker 12: a rally vehicle would do. And that's more the driving
Speaker 12: experience that we're a benchmarking rather than that's than some slow,
Speaker 12: precise rock crawling that you would use of bron Go
Speaker 12: or a Raptor to do.
Speaker 2: I mean, I use the Bronco or the Raptor for
Speaker 2: the Baja one thousand. You know, I'm flying across the
Speaker 2: desert in that vehicle. In fact, I was one of
Speaker 2: the first Raptor buyers in my neighborhood.
Speaker 4: Got one back in twenty fourteen.
Speaker 2: In fact, I had my Raptor, was built at the
Speaker 2: rouge and hand delivered. Believe it or not, the keys
Speaker 2: were given to me in the factory by Alan Molally.
Speaker 2: It dates me a little bit, but yeah, I was
Speaker 2: a big, big fan of that vehicle. I still am.
Speaker 2: When are these electric off road vehicle is going to
Speaker 2: be on sale? When can I if I put in
Speaker 2: my order now, or can I put in my order now?
Speaker 4: And when can I pick one up at the dealership?
Speaker 12: So order banks are not quite open yet, but we're
Speaker 12: going to begin production early next year, targeting January right now,
Speaker 12: and deliveries will begin shortly after that. So call it
Speaker 12: a late Q one early Q two. You should be
Speaker 12: able to get your hand on one.
Speaker 4: Of these price bump What are you thinking?
Speaker 2: I'm looking already at the GT version of the Machi
Speaker 2: and I'm bumping up against sixty grand?
Speaker 4: Is this going to put me over that?
Speaker 13: So it'll be slightly over that.
Speaker 12: We're targeting an MSRP of sixty five thousand right now,
Speaker 12: but it's a very dynamic environment, as you know, and
Speaker 12: we're going to confirm pricing closer to launch.
Speaker 3: Okay, other than Matt who has like all the cars,
Speaker 3: who's your target?
Speaker 5: Fyer here?
Speaker 13: Great question.
Speaker 12: So what we're doing with the rally is really bringing
Speaker 12: evs to folks that are adventure seekers and who value
Speaker 12: an active lifestyle. So somebody who really wants the best
Speaker 12: of both on road and off road. Somebody who wants
Speaker 12: this for their commute Monday through Friday, but also wants
Speaker 12: to take an off the beaten path adventure on the
Speaker 12: weekends and wants to be able to do all that
Speaker 12: in the same vehicle. So if you value technology and
Speaker 12: an exhilarating drive experience, this is definitely the vehicle for you.
Speaker 2: One of the questions I always have about have had
Speaker 2: about evs is how I'm to be able to retrofit
Speaker 2: them later on, you know, because battery technology developed so
Speaker 2: quickly with a gas vehicle.
Speaker 4: If I say I.
Speaker 2: Have like a I don't know, a Boss three to
Speaker 2: Oho two and I want to put in, you know,
Speaker 2: like a four forty seven in there, I can just
Speaker 2: pull out the engine and swap it.
Speaker 4: But it's much more difficult with a battery.
Speaker 2: What's your thought on how we're going to be able
Speaker 2: to deal with these ten twenty years down the road.
Speaker 13: So great question.
Speaker 12: One of the best things about Mustang is how enthusiastic
Speaker 12: our customers are about the brand, and we see that
Speaker 12: with Maki as well. We see a lot of customers
Speaker 12: that want to customize their vehicles and we're definitely here
Speaker 12: for that, so we will have a full suite of
Speaker 12: accessories that will be available when we launch. And the
Speaker 12: other thing that's great about electric vehicles is we're able
Speaker 12: to do things over through over the air updates and
Speaker 12: different software pieces that we weren't able to do before,
Speaker 12: So we can actually help you improve your vehicle over
Speaker 12: the air, so hopefully makes that process even easier for
Speaker 12: you in the future.
Speaker 3: But that doesn't necessarily allow you to just kind of
Speaker 3: switch out your battery when the battery technology.
Speaker 2: Improves, right, it's hard to get to I imagine you'd
Speaker 2: have to take out the interior and I mean if
Speaker 2: the batteries in the floor to skateboard, right, So.
Speaker 12: So battery swapping, you know that that'll be definitely a
Speaker 12: conversation for another day. But there are things we can
Speaker 12: do with different calibrations of the of the engine through
Speaker 12: software that we can push through over the air updates
Speaker 12: to enhance performance, things like our Blue Crewise one point
Speaker 12: three that we're going to launch with the rally, you know,
Speaker 12: has has been something that that improves from from version
Speaker 12: to version, so a lot of this is actually going
Speaker 12: to happen automatically for you.
Speaker 13: In the future.
Speaker 2: Blue Cruise is kind of like an automated driving or
Speaker 2: something that gets closer to that, right.
Speaker 12: Exactly, it's our hands free driving software that's that's in
Speaker 12: all Mustang Makis and Blue Cruise one point three. One
Speaker 12: of the greatest improvements is for narrow lanes and curves.
Speaker 12: It's actually been in our internal tests, has stayed in
Speaker 12: hands free mode five times longer than Blue Cruise one
Speaker 12: point zero.
Speaker 3: Look, Michael, I've got to ask you about this because
Speaker 3: Ford and It's union discussions are so top of mind
Speaker 3: for markets right now. I know you're a marketing guy,
Speaker 3: but that you do really know about this vehicle. One
Speaker 3: of the concerns, I guess from the union side has
Speaker 3: been that the automation of these production of evs potentially,
Speaker 3: you know, puts them out of out of work.
Speaker 4: You need far fewer people to build an.
Speaker 3: Electric exactly have you know, does the production of the
Speaker 3: Machi and the Machi rally, you know, does that require
Speaker 3: far fewer people.
Speaker 12: Yeah, So that's definitely a qui uesh for another day
Speaker 12: as well. We're excited about the rally and we're excited
Speaker 12: for production to begin in January, all right, Uh not?
Speaker 3: They I had to ask, but we do have to
Speaker 3: ask those questions.
Speaker 4: What about other versions?
Speaker 2: Do you have any ideas about some other versions we
Speaker 2: could see of the Mustang Maki. Is this going to
Speaker 2: be something that where variants come out every couple of years.
Speaker 12: So great question, and stay tuned for a few for
Speaker 12: details on the entire twenty four model year Mack Mustang
Speaker 12: Machi lineup. But I do want to share with you
Speaker 12: one mentality that our team has adopted, and it's called
Speaker 12: always on. So through with social media, with connected vehicle
Speaker 12: data that's aggregated and anonymized, we're able to listen to
Speaker 12: customers in a much more real time way than we
Speaker 12: ever have in the past. This Machi rally is actually
Speaker 12: went from an idea in an email to an actual
Speaker 12: vehicle that you can drive in sixteen months, and that's
Speaker 12: a process that could typically take three to.
Speaker 13: Four years at an automaker.
Speaker 12: So we're really excited about all the different variants that
Speaker 12: can come from this in the future, and really hope
Speaker 12: that you stay tuned for the full twenty four mili
Speaker 12: year Mustang Machi lineup, which we'll be giving you more
Speaker 12: details on soon.
Speaker 2: Michael, thanks so much for joining us really appreciate Michael Sego,
Speaker 2: their Macke sales manager at the Ford Motor Company.
Speaker 9: You're listening to the tape. Catch our live program Bloomberg
Speaker 9: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
Speaker 9: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 9: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 9: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 4: Let's talk about pern Recard right now.
Speaker 2: We have Alexander Riccard with us here, the CEO of
Speaker 2: the famed liquor maker with us. The brands are too
Speaker 2: numerous to mention. I grew up with My mom has
Speaker 2: always had the Glenn Livett around, has always had it
Speaker 2: handy in a healthy way, and I appreciate a lot
Speaker 2: of the I grew up with Absolute posters all over
Speaker 2: my wall.
Speaker 4: When I was a kid.
Speaker 2: It was the thing to find Absolute ads and then
Speaker 2: to collect all of them. And I'm older than you,
Speaker 2: so you may not remember that, Simon, But Alexander, thanks
Speaker 2: so much for joining us. What to you is the
Speaker 2: most important or the biggest growth driver of your business?
Speaker 2: Because you have so many brands, so many children to
Speaker 2: look after.
Speaker 3: Hopefully adults excuse me, sorry, go ahead first, yeah.
Speaker 7: Roll adults, absolutely listen. That the beauty is if you
Speaker 7: look at the way we grew over the last let's
Speaker 7: say twelve months, eighty five or percent of our growth
Speaker 7: came from six different categories. That's the beauty of the industry.
Speaker 7: I mean, every single category has amazing brands amongst it
Speaker 7: that are growing. You mentioned some of them. By the way, Absolutely,
Speaker 7: We've had an amazing year with Absolute Vodka. Globally, the
Speaker 7: brand grew ten percent. You mentioned Glenn Livitt, one of
Speaker 7: the fastest growing single molts in the world, doing very well.
Speaker 7: And by the way, in the West, I could name
Speaker 7: Jamison as well, which is just flying off the shelves
Speaker 7: and it's great to see. But even other brands like
Speaker 7: Malibu and Kolua, or even our Kniak brand Mark I
Speaker 7: did want.
Speaker 4: To ask you about do you love the big Lebowski.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, because the dude is drinking white Russians
Speaker 2: the whole time, and that's the first thing I think
Speaker 2: of when I look at Kalua.
Speaker 7: And by the way, in the US, we have a
Speaker 7: great Absolute Martini combo that worked very well last October
Speaker 7: November December, ahead of the festive period. It's just amazing.
Speaker 3: One of the big areas of demand for you and
Speaker 3: the large share of your business about over forty percent
Speaker 3: now is Asia. I know we talked you and I
Speaker 3: talked about this last week, but I want to discuss
Speaker 3: the changing appetites of particularly Chinese consumers. A. This is
Speaker 3: a place where they're seeing some economic pain, but how
Speaker 3: are their appetites for for alcohol changing at the moment?
Speaker 7: You know it's it's it's when when the zero COVID
Speaker 7: strategy was over and after going through a normalization phase,
Speaker 7: we experienced in China exactly what the rest of the
Speaker 7: world experienced post pandemic, which is what I call revenge conviviality.
Speaker 7: Chinese consumers just started to go back out again in
Speaker 7: the trade, going to see their relatives, their their friends,
Speaker 7: a lot of weddings catching up and so on and
Speaker 7: so forth. And as you said, there there is a
Speaker 7: little bit of macroeconomic softness in China right now which
Speaker 7: is impacting consumer confidence and therefore a little bit o
Speaker 7: our sales. But the underlying fundamentals are there. I mean,
Speaker 7: consumers want to go out.
Speaker 3: Do they want sweeter stuff versus so.
Speaker 7: In in China right now, they really love konyak, They
Speaker 7: really love whiskey in particular, Single Mold and Absolute is
Speaker 7: enjoying huge growth as the cocktail culture develops in China
Speaker 7: as well. And there's a big structural shift which we
Speaker 7: are seeing emerge in China, which are live venues, live
Speaker 7: entertainment venues basically bores with local bands playing music and
Speaker 7: Chinese consumers just going there and having a drink or two.
Speaker 2: What you flagged to decline in sales in the current
Speaker 2: quarter is that globally and what do you think is
Speaker 2: behind that? Are people switching back from spirits to beer
Speaker 2: and wine or what's driving it?
Speaker 7: No, what's driving is basically a softness right now in
Speaker 7: the quarter in China. And by the way, we're lapping
Speaker 7: arec quarter the previous year. Over the last two quarters
Speaker 7: in China we grew thirty two percent, So that's what
Speaker 7: we're lapping in a soft environment. Number two, we are
Speaker 7: lapping as well normalization in the US, which is by
Speaker 7: far our largest market. So we expect a soft negative
Speaker 7: in fact quord. So those tough comps, yeah, yeah, tough comps,
Speaker 7: but also normalization.
Speaker 4: What about weed.
Speaker 2: Is that not a big competitor because I think a
Speaker 2: lot of people in this country are drinking less alcohol
Speaker 2: and you know, eating more gummies for example.
Speaker 7: No, you know, I had the question back in in fact,
Speaker 7: in twenty eighteen as cannabis was being legalized in a
Speaker 7: number of states. Ever since, we've really monitored the situation
Speaker 7: quite closely. And by the way, ever since, the spirit market,
Speaker 7: the category in which we operate, premium spirits, have accelerated.
Speaker 7: As a matter of fact, you know, the underlying trend
Speaker 7: in the US for spirits is usually four to five
Speaker 7: percent growth, and over the last three years in the
Speaker 7: US they've grown eight percent.
Speaker 3: Our colleagues really quickly. Here our colleague flagged the decline
Speaker 3: and consumer appetite for alcohol because of GLP one drugs,
Speaker 3: those new weight loss ibetes drugs. Is this on your
Speaker 3: radar at all?
Speaker 7: No, everything is on my radar, just like you know.
Speaker 7: You know, six years ago we spoke about cannabis, and
Speaker 7: ever since we've been looking at it closely, monitoring, just
Speaker 7: making sure and this is new, so it's it's it's
Speaker 7: still early to conclude anything tangible about it, but obviously
Speaker 7: we'll be looking at it closely.
Speaker 4: Yeah, sure, Alexander, thanks so much for coming in. Really
Speaker 4: appreciate your time here.
Speaker 2: Alexander Ricard there, the CEO of Perno Recard, the maker
Speaker 2: of Monkey forty seven, Schwartzwald dry Gin.
Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 9: You're listening to the tape cans our live program, Bloomberg
Speaker 9: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
Speaker 9: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 9: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 9: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: I want to bring in our next guest, Jawad Mian.
Speaker 3: He is the founder at Stray Reflections, a global macro
Speaker 3: research firm with an unconventional view towards markets and trading. Joan,
Speaker 3: I want to ask you because we're looking at a
Speaker 3: pretty negative picture for some of these major tech names.
Speaker 3: In Nvidia, Apple shares both down you know, roughly in
Speaker 3: the three percent range, and then Asadac really leading our
Speaker 3: losses today. We've heard some question marks about whether the
Speaker 3: AI hype will live up to the kind of standards
Speaker 3: that analysts have thought. Is this the end for this
Speaker 3: tech enthusiasm part of the rally.
Speaker 5: I don't think so, you know, feeling lost, confuser and
Speaker 5: certain as much a hallmark of investing as a scarty
Speaker 5: conviction and the sense of calm. So this kind of
Speaker 5: period is quite normal. So what is confusing me actually
Speaker 5: is not the NATSAKS thirty seven percent rally, not that
Speaker 5: inflict has really receded with so little ectomic pain, and
Speaker 5: not even that the tenure bond yields are breaking out.
Speaker 5: A confusing aspect for me is why institutionally industries are
Speaker 5: sitting still sitting out this bull market, which is why
Speaker 5: I believe any correction even here will be quite shallow.
Speaker 14: Juwat. If I'm looking at the tenure right now, the
Speaker 14: yield at four point two seven percent, is there a
Speaker 14: point that the yields can break out? To you that
Speaker 14: we would see things actually materially start to break when
Speaker 14: it comes to some of these tech heavy stocks and indexes.
Speaker 5: I think if the on yield is rising for the
Speaker 5: right reasons, which is based on greater klomic continence a
Speaker 5: higher real neutral rate, I think equities will do just
Speaker 5: fine in that scenario. If yields were rising like they
Speaker 5: did last year, where we were still dealing with inflation uncertainty.
Speaker 5: We weren't sure where the Fed rate high cycle would end.
Speaker 5: Confusion by the terminal rate. That was what was really
Speaker 5: hurting stocks. Yeah, it's quite And you know, if we
Speaker 5: look at past you know cycles where above the rising
Speaker 5: since nineteen seventies, she noticed is that those periods are
Speaker 5: overwhelmingly positive for stocks. So in nine out of those
Speaker 5: eleven cycles, equis did okay the positive return of around
Speaker 5: thirteen percent over a twelve month horizon. What happens is
Speaker 5: tend to contract, but equities do okay because earnings grow
Speaker 5: fast enough to offset those lower valuations. So even as
Speaker 5: bondials increase from four to four point three and let's
Speaker 5: say higher, if we are going to be seeing forward
Speaker 5: earnings climbing as we are current with S five hundred
Speaker 5: and brought up epsesment next year at two hundred and
Speaker 5: forty years, that's still is prop for equities.
Speaker 3: And sorry to our our radio viewers there, I should
Speaker 3: have told you that the disembodied voice that you might
Speaker 3: have just heard before Jawad's was actually that of our
Speaker 3: Stash reporter Bailey Lipschaltz, who joins us for the next
Speaker 3: couple of minutes, fifteen to twenty minutes.
Speaker 4: Here, you know, Jimad.
Speaker 3: One of the big concerns has been the health of
Speaker 3: the consumer going forward, responsible for about two thirds of
Speaker 3: overall economic GDP. What are you reading in the tea
Speaker 3: leaves here from some of the earning statements we've had
Speaker 3: over the last couple of weeks. From the data that
Speaker 3: you're seeing.
Speaker 5: So, I think the big question that concern this year
Speaker 5: coming into it was that where everyone was expecting a
Speaker 5: recession and it hasn't happened yet the liber market remains
Speaker 5: quite healthy. I think what we're trying to understand now
Speaker 5: is the fact that intership and stivity in the US
Speaker 5: economy is historically low, and what that means is basically
Speaker 5: in consumers and households, we deleverged both the GFC and
Speaker 5: then POSTPIG given the booster incomes and the further plunge
Speaker 5: in interest costs you're looking at how so, oh.
Speaker 3: It looks like we might have lost Jawad there. We'll
Speaker 3: be back to him soon as soon as we get
Speaker 3: him back on the line. Looking a mixed picture in
Speaker 3: stocks right now, dal Jones up about two tents of
Speaker 3: one percent, but we're seeing some weakness in SMP down
Speaker 3: about three tenths of one percent and the NASDAC down
Speaker 3: about one percent. Oh, I look, I believe we have
Speaker 3: Juwad back with us. You were talking about the consumer,
Speaker 3: the pain that the consumer has been feeling, but not
Speaker 3: necessarily bad for stocks. I believe we lost you there.
Speaker 3: So just recap a little bit the last bit that
Speaker 3: you were saying there.
Speaker 5: What I was saying was that you were realizing is
Speaker 5: that the intershiate tensitivity of the US economy or households
Speaker 5: and corporate low why consumers have so if you have
Speaker 5: nominal growth blocking in at around six seven percent, as
Speaker 5: has been the case so far this year, even if
Speaker 5: FET thundred five percent is not troublesome, it's only when
Speaker 5: you really have a sharper slowdown in nominal growth and
Speaker 5: higher interestrate levels that you start to see the consumer
Speaker 5: really pulling back. And that has the case so far.
Speaker 5: I don't expect it to be the case of the
Speaker 5: next section nine months either, And drawn looking.
Speaker 14: At the tape, obviously we're starting September off in the red,
Speaker 14: seasonally the worst month for major US averages. What can
Speaker 14: spur investors to put capital back into the market. We
Speaker 14: have CPI data coming up coming out about a week.
Speaker 14: We have a FED blackout period. Obviously there's a lot
Speaker 14: of macroeconomic concerns as it relates to Apple. What draws
Speaker 14: investors back into this market?
Speaker 5: I think it's just a matter of understanding slows and
Speaker 5: participation levels. Right, So, even though recession concerns are fading,
Speaker 5: which you realize looking at different survey like the Bank
Speaker 5: of America, it was un managers of issues like global
Speaker 5: equity allocation is still at eleven percent underweight, which is
Speaker 5: one of a half stand deviation below the DOCTO average.
Speaker 5: You know, the overweighting bonds is the two standard deviation.
Speaker 5: And so what you're seeing is currently this understanding that
Speaker 5: maybe why and stocks when bonds are yielding five percent
Speaker 5: of the short term But our view is actually bonds
Speaker 5: are expensive here and stocks could be relative cheap or
Speaker 5: a reliative basis. So I think it's going to be
Speaker 5: simply an understanding that with yields moving higher. It's usually
Speaker 5: investors came into the year quite underweight equities. They expected
Speaker 5: their private market book exposure will sort of help them
Speaker 5: with that. The private markets have underperformed bundials have risen
Speaker 5: and they're realizing that equities underweight is even bigger than
Speaker 5: their thought. So in conversations when I pick up and
Speaker 5: compositioning data, is that we're going to see more and
Speaker 5: more participation flows moving into equities, which will keep any
Speaker 5: pullback quite shallow. Before we move from here, George.
Speaker 3: As quickly, we only have about thirty seconds here, but
Speaker 3: I know that you are a portfolio manager in the
Speaker 3: Middle East. Recently in their past dramatic rise in the
Speaker 3: importance of that region has for the rest of the world.
Speaker 3: Is that something that can continue even if oil doesn't
Speaker 3: remain ninety dollars of arrow.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think there's plenty of equity buffers
Speaker 5: to be influential, and I think most importantly what matters
Speaker 5: from there is just the AILL production policy. Right, So
Speaker 5: that's the real way that you'll see a pass through
Speaker 5: from a global market perspective. You know, what is open
Speaker 5: going to do with AILL cuts And they've already said
Speaker 5: that they can extend their cuts for now, so which
Speaker 5: keeps aid prices higher than your tone.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and very interesting.
Speaker 3: That's Jawad Mihan, He's the founder of Stray reflections the
Speaker 3: global asset management firm. Thank you for joining us here
Speaker 3: on Bloomberg with me and Bailey Lipschaltz. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can
Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews in Apple Podcasts or whatever
Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter
Speaker 2: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three.
Speaker 8: And I'm Faull Sweeney.
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio