WEBVTT - Apple, FTX, Ford Mach-E, and Markets

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside

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<v Speaker 1>my co host Matt Miller.

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<v Speaker 2>Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,

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<v Speaker 2>and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven news.

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<v Speaker 1>Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever

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<v Speaker 1>you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast.

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<v Speaker 3>Now, let's turn to one of the other large stories

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<v Speaker 3>today at Bloomberg Exclusive that China planning to broaden a

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<v Speaker 3>ban on the use of iPhones and sensitive departments to

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<v Speaker 3>government backed agencies and state companies in China. Anurag Runna

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<v Speaker 3>is our senior tech analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence and he

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<v Speaker 3>joins us by zoom Now. Anurrag, it sounds like this

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<v Speaker 3>latest story is essentially expanding the scope of these restrictions.

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<v Speaker 4>They were already banned.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, they weren't banned, it sounds like, But it sounds

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<v Speaker 3>like for some reason, the markets believe that at the

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<v Speaker 3>scope is much broader than it was yesterday at the

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<v Speaker 3>Wall Street Journal report coming out that you know, people

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<v Speaker 3>were not being asked not to bring their iPhones in.

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<v Speaker 4>Is that?

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<v Speaker 3>Is that right here?

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<v Speaker 5>So I'll tell you.

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<v Speaker 6>I talked to the analysts in Asia and they basically said, listen,

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<v Speaker 6>if you are a Chinese government official, you were not

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<v Speaker 6>you were it was basically bad manners for you to

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<v Speaker 6>even show your iPhone in the office, So you have

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, this is just a This was not to

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<v Speaker 6>be used at work at all and under any circumstances.

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<v Speaker 6>So this is just an extension of that. But to

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<v Speaker 6>be very frank I mean this, you know, financially, I

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<v Speaker 6>would say, people government official not buying the iPhone is

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<v Speaker 6>not going to be material for Apple. But the question

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<v Speaker 6>really is not so much about that. The question is

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<v Speaker 6>is the close relationship that China has had with Apple

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<v Speaker 6>or the Apple has had with China, are we seeing

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<v Speaker 6>some kind of indent in that. I think that is

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<v Speaker 6>the biggest question here, because as everybody knows, Apple is

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<v Speaker 6>very dependent on China for all its parts, all the assembly,

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<v Speaker 6>and frankly, you know you were to look at all

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<v Speaker 6>the US companies, Apple's done so much better than anybody

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<v Speaker 6>else since even the tartafar begins, Apple was basically insulated

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<v Speaker 6>from all of that.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, and Apple shares I guess, reacting here down three

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<v Speaker 3>point seven percent. But I mean, do we have any

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<v Speaker 3>indication that this would spread not just to the I

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<v Speaker 3>guess twenty percent of sales roughly that China that Apple

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<v Speaker 3>does in China, but also to the manufacturing end or

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<v Speaker 3>is that just kind of the market's thinking ahead.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I mean that's really what the big you know,

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<v Speaker 6>the danger here is you know them nobody, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>few government officials not buying the iPhone is not going

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<v Speaker 6>to move the needle at all for Apple. But the

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<v Speaker 6>question really is, you know, are they going to try

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<v Speaker 6>to restrict other things We're going to have, you know, tariffs,

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<v Speaker 6>it's all those things that are coming into play. But

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<v Speaker 6>you know, we'll find out, I would say, in the

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<v Speaker 6>next six to twelve months, if there is any change

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<v Speaker 6>in relationship. Apple's done a phenomenal job of its relationship,

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<v Speaker 6>but China. It employs millions of people in China, not

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<v Speaker 6>directly through their factories, and you know it, as you said,

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<v Speaker 6>it's nineteen percent of Apple's revenue. So it is very

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<v Speaker 6>overly dependent on China for a lot of things. So

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<v Speaker 6>you know, I'm sure they are hoping that none of

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<v Speaker 6>that changes. Because of recent events between the US and China.

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<v Speaker 2>Apple shares not doing poorly they're up thirty five thirty

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<v Speaker 2>six percent year to date, but they have dipped below

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<v Speaker 2>their one hundred day moving average right now trading at

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<v Speaker 2>one hundred and seventy six dollars.

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<v Speaker 4>Even what do you think about about the stock on rag.

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<v Speaker 6>See when you look at it. I think a lot

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<v Speaker 6>will depend on this overhang now, because next week we're

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<v Speaker 6>going to see the new iPhone coming out, the iPhone fifteen.

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<v Speaker 6>You know, we think it's going to do well. But

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<v Speaker 6>at the same time, now we have another unnecessary cloud

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<v Speaker 6>on top of this stock, so we have to figure

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<v Speaker 6>out what this really means. I do not know whether

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<v Speaker 6>when Apple announces the iPhone of if they're going to

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<v Speaker 6>make any comment on any of these news breaks, because

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<v Speaker 6>I think as long as this overhang is there, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>Apple will have a hard time in the near future.

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<v Speaker 3>How has Apple typically interacted with the Chinese government.

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<v Speaker 6>It's been amazing. I mean, they have done so much

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<v Speaker 6>better than any other company in the Western world. They

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<v Speaker 6>were not affected by any of the bands. They are

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<v Speaker 6>very you know, widely welcome there. In fact, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>one of the things we saw last year there was

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<v Speaker 6>some issue with the with the production of the Pro

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<v Speaker 6>model because of COVID nineteen restrictions in China, and that

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<v Speaker 6>led to some you know, shortfall of shipments. But frankly,

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<v Speaker 6>right about a month month and a half after that,

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<v Speaker 6>China changed their COVID policies. Now I'm not saying they

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<v Speaker 6>did it because of Apple, but they have been very

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<v Speaker 6>friendly to Apple, and Apple's been very nice to them.

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<v Speaker 4>What's the biggest opportunity for Apple? Is it India?

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<v Speaker 6>It is China. Actually, from a mathematical point of view,

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<v Speaker 6>India is going to be very long term because you know,

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<v Speaker 6>the gdpeople are capital for India is only twenty five

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<v Speaker 6>hundred dollars, while in China it's about close to thirteen

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<v Speaker 6>thousand dollars.

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<v Speaker 3>Just quickly here an rag because we only have about

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<v Speaker 3>a minute left. What should we expect next week from

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<v Speaker 3>the announcement of these new products? Is there anything that

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<v Speaker 3>could really be a game changer?

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<v Speaker 6>I think the question really is the highest end model

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<v Speaker 6>that they have, it's the iPhone Promax model. I'm looking for.

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<v Speaker 6>The biggest thing we are looking for is, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>what's the price of that product? Because that price has

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<v Speaker 6>remained constant for the last three years. If there is

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<v Speaker 6>any changes to that price, I mean that really does

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<v Speaker 6>wonders to the iPhone sales for the next twelve months,

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<v Speaker 6>because that model itself is supposed to have a very

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<v Speaker 6>high end camera, much better than anything Apple's done in

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<v Speaker 6>the past.

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<v Speaker 4>Simone's an Android user. No, I'm sorry to say.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm an iPhone user in part because of the because

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<v Speaker 3>of the camera well, and also because I moved abroad

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<v Speaker 3>and had to get an iPhone. I can't remember the

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<v Speaker 3>actually irational, but.

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<v Speaker 2>Android users, I feel like they spoil a fun for

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<v Speaker 2>just family.

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<v Speaker 3>John Tucker group chats who is an andreid.

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<v Speaker 4>He has a green bubble. John Tucker has a green bubble.

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<v Speaker 7>I thought, you know that that sounded like an insult,

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<v Speaker 7>but then Matt went on to explain, you know, mister

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<v Speaker 7>Spock would have anything.

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<v Speaker 4>I think mister Spock would be and Andrew, which.

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<v Speaker 8>I take as an attack on my ears.

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<v Speaker 2>No, it's because you're a very technical, technically savvy man.

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<v Speaker 4>All right, Honor Agrana, thanks very much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 9>You're listening to the Team Ken's Are Live program Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 9>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

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<v Speaker 9>the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen

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<v Speaker 9>on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's get over to our legal reporter Ava Benny Morrison

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<v Speaker 2>right now, she's at courthouse here in New York talk

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<v Speaker 2>about breaking news on the FTX case. We have seen

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<v Speaker 2>across the Bloomberg terminal that Ryan Salome, formerly of.

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<v Speaker 3>FTX, he's planning to play guilty.

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<v Speaker 2>It sounds like exactly he was as an executive along

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<v Speaker 2>with SBF with Sam Bankman freed, and it looks like

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<v Speaker 2>he's going to plead guildy criminal charges over the collapse

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<v Speaker 2>of that cryptocurrency exchange EVA.

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<v Speaker 4>What do we know?

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<v Speaker 10>We know that Ryan Salame has been in negotiations with

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<v Speaker 10>prosecutors for a while. Now today he is going to

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<v Speaker 10>front the federal courthouse in downtown Manhattan and enter ala

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<v Speaker 10>of guilty to criminal charges. We don't know yet what

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<v Speaker 10>exactly what those charges are or whether that means he

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<v Speaker 10>will also be a cooperating witness and agree to testify

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<v Speaker 10>against Bankman freed or not.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, what does this mean for the potential cases against

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<v Speaker 3>some of the other players in this You know Bankman Freed,

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<v Speaker 3>some of his other former colleagues, Gary Wayang Caro, Allison,

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<v Speaker 3>Shad Singh, you know, what do we understand and what

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<v Speaker 3>does your reporting suggest about his willingness to cooperate with

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<v Speaker 3>prosecutors there?

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<v Speaker 10>Well, from our reporting and talking to different sources, the

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<v Speaker 10>sense we've got is Ryan has been digging his heels

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<v Speaker 10>in about corporating with the prosecutors, So we understand that

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<v Speaker 10>this will more than likely be a plea deal. He

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<v Speaker 10>will agree to plead guilty to certain charges, but he

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<v Speaker 10>doesn't want to testify against Sam bakman Fred and prosecutors

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<v Speaker 10>actually may suggested that in a court filing a few

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<v Speaker 10>weeks ago, saying that Ryan Salomey had said he would

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<v Speaker 10>take the fifth if he was called to testify. Worth

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<v Speaker 10>noting here that prosecutors already have three former executives from

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<v Speaker 10>FTX and alome To Research, Caroline Nelson, Gary Wang, and

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<v Speaker 10>Nashad Singh, who have pleaded guilty to their conduct as

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<v Speaker 10>well and have agreed to cooperate with prosecutors.

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<v Speaker 4>What do we know about how much money these guys

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<v Speaker 4>have or gals?

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<v Speaker 2>In terms of Carolyn Ellison, you know, I think it's

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<v Speaker 2>interesting that they're able to mount these legal defenses and

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<v Speaker 2>they're not using state appointed lawyers, So do they have

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<v Speaker 2>still a ton of cash stashed away.

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<v Speaker 10>That's a really good question. We know that some of

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<v Speaker 10>these executives received huge loans from Alamina Research. We're talking

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<v Speaker 10>tens of millions of dollars here, But some of the

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<v Speaker 10>executives like Nishead Singh, who have previously played guilty, have

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<v Speaker 10>also agreed to forfeit some of their assets, including property.

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<v Speaker 10>So it's unclear, but it's a really good question. They're

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<v Speaker 10>not using public defenders, they're using private attorneys, so it'd

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<v Speaker 10>be interesting to see just how much money they still

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<v Speaker 10>have and whether that could potentially be called back by

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<v Speaker 10>the FTX, bankruptcy estate.

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<v Speaker 6>AVA.

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<v Speaker 3>Really interesting stuff. Thank you for saying across this. This

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<v Speaker 3>is Eva Benny Morrison. She's our legal reporter for Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 3>News at the Courthouse in Manhattan.

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<v Speaker 9>You're listening to the teeth catch our line program Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 9>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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<v Speaker 9>tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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<v Speaker 9>You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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<v Speaker 9>flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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<v Speaker 3>Now it's our time of the Thursday where we talk

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<v Speaker 3>to Barry rid Holts, our Bloomer opinion colonists, founder of

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<v Speaker 3>Ritsholt Wealth Management and host of Masters in Business. Love

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<v Speaker 3>chatting with you always bear it and you have a

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<v Speaker 3>bit of an interesting take out. You quote William Goldman,

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<v Speaker 3>the scriptwriter for Butch Cassidy and The Sun Dance Kids.

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<v Speaker 3>All the Presidents, Man, marathon Man, etcetera. Nobody knows Princess

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<v Speaker 3>Princess Bride. There's too many, you.

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<v Speaker 4>Can get through all of them.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a laundry list, marathon Man, etcetera. Anyway, point being,

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<v Speaker 3>nobody knows anything. So Wall Street doesn't know anything either.

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<v Speaker 11>Very well, well, let me give you a little context

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<v Speaker 11>about what led Goldman to write that in his book

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<v Speaker 11>Adventures in the Screen Trade. So there was a couple

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<v Speaker 11>of guys named Lucas and Spielberg shopping moving around.

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<v Speaker 8>They couldn't get it made, and it.

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<v Speaker 11>Was called Raiders of the Lost Dark, and everybody turned

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<v Speaker 11>them down on it. And not long after that, Star

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<v Speaker 11>or before that, Star Wars was another film that all

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<v Speaker 11>the major studio execs turned down. And I kind of

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<v Speaker 11>was reminded of this because very quietly in the midst

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<v Speaker 11>of Barbenheimer, John Wick four snuck out and did nearly

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<v Speaker 11>half a billion dollars in box office, which is a

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<v Speaker 11>huge number for a fourth sequel of Just to Shoot

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<v Speaker 11>Him Up. And I did a little research and discovered

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<v Speaker 11>nobody in Hollywood wanted to make the first Jock John

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<v Speaker 11>Wick film.

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<v Speaker 8>And it's a reminder.

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<v Speaker 11>That experts who are thinking about the future really have

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<v Speaker 11>very little expertise as to what's gonna happen next quarter,

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<v Speaker 11>next year, next decade.

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<v Speaker 8>Nobody knows anything.

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<v Speaker 2>That I mean, this reminds me of the R Star

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<v Speaker 2>debate that we're having. It seems beyond ridiculous. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>it's fine if you want to talk about whether or

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<v Speaker 2>not the Fed's going to raise rates or cut but

0:12:27.559 --> 0:12:31.640
<v Speaker 2>when you get into that kind of unknowable, it just

0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:35.839
<v Speaker 2>is an exercise in futility.

0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:37.000
<v Speaker 3>Purely theoretical.

0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:39.760
<v Speaker 2>And we will be having that discussion this afternoon with

0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:42.440
<v Speaker 2>John Williams at three thirty pm on Bloomberg Television.

0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:44.199
<v Speaker 3>But can I take you to the Wall Street Angleberry,

0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:46.959
<v Speaker 3>because we had this great story out earlier this week,

0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:50.680
<v Speaker 3>I think yesterday, I think Wall Street stock Market calls

0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:56.040
<v Speaker 3>very by firm, end by floor, and I'm just illustrating,

0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.800
<v Speaker 3>perhaps your point the cell side research teams are farm

0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:03.880
<v Speaker 3>are negative on you as equities than the investment managed teams.

0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:07.520
<v Speaker 3>You can see this even playing out within Morgan Stanley.

0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:10.199
<v Speaker 3>So how do you how do you live in this

0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:13.240
<v Speaker 3>in this sort of world if you are if you're

0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:15.959
<v Speaker 3>a trader, So first.

0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:20.280
<v Speaker 11>It's really important to separate the signal from the noise.

0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:23.920
<v Speaker 11>When I was on a trading desk, my habit was

0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:28.000
<v Speaker 11>to create a reading list but not read anything until

0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:31.320
<v Speaker 11>after four o'clock because if you read something early in

0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:35.839
<v Speaker 11>the morning, it very often would influence how you trade it.

0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:38.880
<v Speaker 11>And in fact, there have been academic studies that have

0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:42.679
<v Speaker 11>looked as to how sunny or rainy it is in

0:13:42.679 --> 0:13:46.120
<v Speaker 11>New York City, and the actual weather has an impact

0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:48.679
<v Speaker 11>on whether or not markets trade up a little bit

0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:52.120
<v Speaker 11>or trade down a little bit. Your psyche is so

0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:55.800
<v Speaker 11>malleable in ways that you're just wholly unaware of that.

0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:58.760
<v Speaker 11>A nice day means you're more optimistic, and hey, it's

0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:01.640
<v Speaker 11>beautiful out, and you tend to be more of a buyer.

0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:05.720
<v Speaker 11>So you really have to know yourself. You really have

0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:11.160
<v Speaker 11>to understand what's driving your decision making, and that's really

0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.679
<v Speaker 11>really difficult for people to do. We are just very

0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:18.720
<v Speaker 11>much unaware of our internal thought process. We think we're

0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:24.040
<v Speaker 11>making independent decisions, but lots of little influences affect how

0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:26.520
<v Speaker 11>we invest, how we trade, how we make decisions.

0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:29.960
<v Speaker 4>Was John Wick four, any good? Did you watch four?

0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:32.240
<v Speaker 8>I haven't seen four yet.

0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:35.920
<v Speaker 11>I loved the first one, and I found the second

0:14:35.920 --> 0:14:37.239
<v Speaker 11>one very amusing.

0:14:38.480 --> 0:14:39.920
<v Speaker 8>I haven't seen three yet.

0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:42.520
<v Speaker 11>What I kind of do is like what I did

0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:45.160
<v Speaker 11>with Guardians of the Galaxy when the third one came out.

0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:47.520
<v Speaker 11>I watched the first one, I watched the second one,

0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:49.840
<v Speaker 11>and then we went to the movies to see the

0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:53.080
<v Speaker 11>third one in three consecutive days. By the way, John

0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:57.080
<v Speaker 11>Wick five already approved it's going to be out in

0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:59.680
<v Speaker 11>twenty twenty six. Let me just put a little flesh

0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:02.480
<v Speaker 11>on the b owns as to how much money this

0:15:02.640 --> 0:15:03.200
<v Speaker 11>film made.

0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:05.760
<v Speaker 8>So it was made independently. The guys who were.

0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:11.200
<v Speaker 11>The choreographers and stuntmen for the Matrix movies were the

0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:15.960
<v Speaker 11>co directors. They had Keanu Reeves attached to this. No

0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:18.200
<v Speaker 11>one would make it, so they made it as an

0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:23.480
<v Speaker 11>independent film. They self funded it. It costs twenty million dollars. Today,

0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:28.880
<v Speaker 11>the John Wick franchise has generated two billion dollars between

0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:30.680
<v Speaker 11>the box office, the streaming rights.

0:15:30.960 --> 0:15:32.600
<v Speaker 8>There was a spinoff film.

0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:36.640
<v Speaker 11>There was a television series, comic books, video games, two

0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:41.400
<v Speaker 11>billion dollars. They couldn't get anybody to greenlight a twenty

0:15:41.440 --> 0:15:44.760
<v Speaker 11>million dollar movie it And now turn around and let's

0:15:44.800 --> 0:15:49.440
<v Speaker 11>apply this to investors. Which ETF, which mutual fund? What's

0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:52.000
<v Speaker 11>the FED gonna do? Where're the mark? Where's the market

0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:56.040
<v Speaker 11>gonna be? Instead of focusing on next month or next quarter.

0:15:56.400 --> 0:15:58.960
<v Speaker 11>The one thing we know is that over ten and

0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:01.960
<v Speaker 11>twenty year period we have a pretty good idea of

0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:04.520
<v Speaker 11>what assa class returns are going to be. Here's what

0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:08.320
<v Speaker 11>stocks return, Here's what bonds return. And people have to

0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:11.640
<v Speaker 11>stop thinking about tomorrow and start thinking about, hey, what

0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:15.080
<v Speaker 11>about my kids, what about my retirement, what about my grandkids.

0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:18.800
<v Speaker 11>That's a way to defeat the nobody knows anything sort

0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:19.960
<v Speaker 11>of philosophy.

0:16:20.520 --> 0:16:21.400
<v Speaker 4>You know what I've noticed.

0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:25.520
<v Speaker 2>I've noticed here at work that a lot of people

0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:32.320
<v Speaker 2>underestimate the allure of cars when it comes to selling clicks,

0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:34.720
<v Speaker 2>for example, And the same is true in movies, right

0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:38.920
<v Speaker 2>because that's the part of the part of the equation

0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:40.880
<v Speaker 2>that made John Wick such a big teller. He has

0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:43.000
<v Speaker 2>a boss for twenty nine in the first one. I

0:16:43.000 --> 0:16:45.960
<v Speaker 2>think he has a Chevelle SS in the second one.

0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:50.320
<v Speaker 2>And I guess people who don't care about cars really

0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:52.880
<v Speaker 2>don't see the draw, but people who do are going

0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:54.080
<v Speaker 2>to tune in for this kind of thing.

0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:55.880
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Matt's looking at me, and I'm kind of rolling

0:16:55.920 --> 0:17:00.160
<v Speaker 3>my eyes because I have to say, I don't know cars.

0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:01.240
<v Speaker 3>I have a hybrid.

0:17:01.880 --> 0:17:05.719
<v Speaker 8>But but in the John Wick movie, the mcguindy that

0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:10.560
<v Speaker 8>drives the plot is a bunch of hoodlums see his

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:14.520
<v Speaker 8>mustang and come to his house to steal it, not

0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:18.480
<v Speaker 8>realizing this is one of the most deadly hit men

0:17:18.200 --> 0:17:22.320
<v Speaker 8>in film lore. And so that's what starts the.

0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:24.080
<v Speaker 4>Whole and they kill his dog, right.

0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:25.800
<v Speaker 11>And that I need you to take this kill his dog,

0:17:25.880 --> 0:17:29.280
<v Speaker 11>which is recently deceased wife had given to him.

0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:31.119
<v Speaker 8>It is just a great plot.

0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:33.560
<v Speaker 2>Barry, thanks so much for joining us. Barrier Holts on

0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:34.720
<v Speaker 2>John Wick in the Markets.

0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:39.560
<v Speaker 9>You're listening to the Team Ken'ser Live program Bloomberg Markets

0:17:39.600 --> 0:17:42.680
<v Speaker 9>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:45.919
<v Speaker 9>iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

0:17:45.960 --> 0:17:47.960
<v Speaker 9>demand wherever you get your podcasts.

0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:53.240
<v Speaker 2>I am excited to welcome the mack E. Sales manager

0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:56.359
<v Speaker 2>for the Ford Motor Company, Michael Sago joins us to

0:17:56.440 --> 0:18:00.480
<v Speaker 2>talk about what's going on in this uh in this

0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:04.600
<v Speaker 2>quickly growing industry with really one of I think the

0:18:04.640 --> 0:18:09.200
<v Speaker 2>first standout products in American evs. Michael, thanks so much

0:18:09.200 --> 0:18:12.840
<v Speaker 2>for joining us. What does sales look like now for

0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:15.080
<v Speaker 2>the Machi? I mean I started seeing a lot more

0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:20.520
<v Speaker 2>of them last year and they've become they've become very present,

0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:24.000
<v Speaker 2>at least in this region. How many do you sell

0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:25.440
<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty two and how many do you want

0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:26.480
<v Speaker 2>to sell in twenty twenty three.

0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:31.080
<v Speaker 12>So we've had great sales in the last couple of months.

0:18:31.080 --> 0:18:34.520
<v Speaker 12>So we actually took a bit of downtime earlier in

0:18:34.520 --> 0:18:38.480
<v Speaker 12>the year to revamp our production facilities to make sure

0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:41.240
<v Speaker 12>that we could meet demand for the Makis. So what's

0:18:41.280 --> 0:18:44.240
<v Speaker 12>great now is a lot of those extra units that

0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:46.560
<v Speaker 12>we've been able to produce are now out there in

0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:50.639
<v Speaker 12>the market and available for purchase and for customers to

0:18:50.640 --> 0:18:51.399
<v Speaker 12>get their hands on.

0:18:52.760 --> 0:18:58.280
<v Speaker 3>We're also hearing about the Mustang Machi Rally as well,

0:18:58.320 --> 0:19:04.440
<v Speaker 3>which the Verge actually called the Ford's off roadius performance

0:19:04.720 --> 0:19:09.280
<v Speaker 3>EVY yet tell us about the tell us all about

0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:10.119
<v Speaker 3>what this is about.

0:19:11.800 --> 0:19:15.720
<v Speaker 12>Love it so really excited to write another chapter in

0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:22.159
<v Speaker 12>Mustang's nearly six decade storied history with a Mustang Machi Rally. So,

0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:26.560
<v Speaker 12>as you know, it's actually a four door suv that's

0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:30.600
<v Speaker 12>all electric, seats five passengers, and we've had that vehicle

0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:32.000
<v Speaker 12>and market for a couple of years.

0:19:32.080 --> 0:19:33.920
<v Speaker 13>And this new variant, the Rally.

0:19:34.080 --> 0:19:37.880
<v Speaker 12>Allows us to go off the pavement and confidently onto

0:19:37.920 --> 0:19:41.560
<v Speaker 12>the dirt road. So this is a rally inspired electric

0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:46.200
<v Speaker 12>suv with really aggressive rally styling all around and lots

0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:50.359
<v Speaker 12>of extra capability built in. We've raised the vehicle twenty

0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:54.159
<v Speaker 12>five millimeters, we have off road tires on it, we

0:19:54.240 --> 0:20:00.640
<v Speaker 12>have extra special tune suspension for off roading. And this

0:20:00.680 --> 0:20:02.159
<v Speaker 12>thing is going to be a beast. It's going to

0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:04.800
<v Speaker 12>have at least six hundred and fifty pound feet of

0:20:04.840 --> 0:20:07.879
<v Speaker 12>torque and do zero to sixty in under three point

0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:08.680
<v Speaker 12>five seconds.

0:20:08.720 --> 0:20:10.960
<v Speaker 4>We're just looking at pictures of it there.

0:20:12.640 --> 0:20:16.200
<v Speaker 2>What I instantly wonder is why isn't it called a raptor,

0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:19.639
<v Speaker 2>you know, because in the at least in the gas

0:20:19.680 --> 0:20:22.760
<v Speaker 2>side of the business, when Ford makes an off road vehicle,

0:20:23.040 --> 0:20:25.240
<v Speaker 2>at least in terms of the F one fifty and

0:20:25.320 --> 0:20:29.240
<v Speaker 2>the Bronco. If it's if it's the pinnacle of the

0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:33.000
<v Speaker 2>off road offering, if it's the Apex Predator, you now

0:20:33.040 --> 0:20:34.400
<v Speaker 2>have the Raptor brand.

0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:36.359
<v Speaker 13>Great question.

0:20:36.480 --> 0:20:39.960
<v Speaker 12>So this is definitely different from a Raptor or a Bronco.

0:20:40.480 --> 0:20:43.439
<v Speaker 12>This is the Machi Rally is not necessarily meant to

0:20:43.480 --> 0:20:46.280
<v Speaker 12>be a rock crawler, but it's meant to perform really

0:20:46.359 --> 0:20:49.080
<v Speaker 12>well at high speed on loose surfaces, similar to what

0:20:49.160 --> 0:20:52.520
<v Speaker 12>a rally vehicle would do. And that's more the driving

0:20:52.560 --> 0:20:56.719
<v Speaker 12>experience that we're a benchmarking rather than that's than some slow,

0:20:57.440 --> 0:21:00.199
<v Speaker 12>precise rock crawling that you would use of bron Go

0:21:00.400 --> 0:21:01.280
<v Speaker 12>or a Raptor to do.

0:21:02.119 --> 0:21:04.199
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I use the Bronco or the Raptor for

0:21:04.240 --> 0:21:06.960
<v Speaker 2>the Baja one thousand. You know, I'm flying across the

0:21:07.000 --> 0:21:09.680
<v Speaker 2>desert in that vehicle. In fact, I was one of

0:21:09.720 --> 0:21:12.440
<v Speaker 2>the first Raptor buyers in my neighborhood.

0:21:12.440 --> 0:21:14.280
<v Speaker 4>Got one back in twenty fourteen.

0:21:14.640 --> 0:21:18.879
<v Speaker 2>In fact, I had my Raptor, was built at the

0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:22.240
<v Speaker 2>rouge and hand delivered. Believe it or not, the keys

0:21:22.280 --> 0:21:25.879
<v Speaker 2>were given to me in the factory by Alan Molally.

0:21:26.760 --> 0:21:30.119
<v Speaker 2>It dates me a little bit, but yeah, I was

0:21:30.119 --> 0:21:32.840
<v Speaker 2>a big, big fan of that vehicle. I still am.

0:21:33.080 --> 0:21:37.200
<v Speaker 2>When are these electric off road vehicle is going to

0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:39.679
<v Speaker 2>be on sale? When can I if I put in

0:21:39.720 --> 0:21:42.000
<v Speaker 2>my order now, or can I put in my order now?

0:21:42.040 --> 0:21:43.600
<v Speaker 4>And when can I pick one up at the dealership?

0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:47.760
<v Speaker 12>So order banks are not quite open yet, but we're

0:21:48.080 --> 0:21:52.480
<v Speaker 12>going to begin production early next year, targeting January right now,

0:21:52.840 --> 0:21:56.159
<v Speaker 12>and deliveries will begin shortly after that. So call it

0:21:56.240 --> 0:21:59.320
<v Speaker 12>a late Q one early Q two. You should be

0:21:59.320 --> 0:22:00.520
<v Speaker 12>able to get your hand on one.

0:22:00.400 --> 0:22:02.160
<v Speaker 4>Of these price bump What are you thinking?

0:22:02.200 --> 0:22:05.080
<v Speaker 2>I'm looking already at the GT version of the Machi

0:22:05.400 --> 0:22:07.720
<v Speaker 2>and I'm bumping up against sixty grand?

0:22:07.800 --> 0:22:08.800
<v Speaker 4>Is this going to put me over that?

0:22:09.960 --> 0:22:11.760
<v Speaker 13>So it'll be slightly over that.

0:22:11.800 --> 0:22:15.680
<v Speaker 12>We're targeting an MSRP of sixty five thousand right now,

0:22:15.680 --> 0:22:17.919
<v Speaker 12>but it's a very dynamic environment, as you know, and

0:22:18.000 --> 0:22:20.840
<v Speaker 12>we're going to confirm pricing closer to launch.

0:22:21.240 --> 0:22:25.520
<v Speaker 3>Okay, other than Matt who has like all the cars,

0:22:25.560 --> 0:22:26.280
<v Speaker 3>who's your target?

0:22:26.280 --> 0:22:26.800
<v Speaker 5>Fyer here?

0:22:27.960 --> 0:22:28.639
<v Speaker 13>Great question.

0:22:28.800 --> 0:22:32.240
<v Speaker 12>So what we're doing with the rally is really bringing

0:22:32.760 --> 0:22:36.440
<v Speaker 12>evs to folks that are adventure seekers and who value

0:22:36.480 --> 0:22:40.760
<v Speaker 12>an active lifestyle. So somebody who really wants the best

0:22:40.760 --> 0:22:43.800
<v Speaker 12>of both on road and off road. Somebody who wants

0:22:43.800 --> 0:22:46.960
<v Speaker 12>this for their commute Monday through Friday, but also wants

0:22:47.000 --> 0:22:49.679
<v Speaker 12>to take an off the beaten path adventure on the

0:22:49.720 --> 0:22:51.439
<v Speaker 12>weekends and wants to be able to do all that

0:22:51.480 --> 0:22:55.040
<v Speaker 12>in the same vehicle. So if you value technology and

0:22:55.080 --> 0:22:58.280
<v Speaker 12>an exhilarating drive experience, this is definitely the vehicle for you.

0:22:59.080 --> 0:23:01.440
<v Speaker 2>One of the questions I always have about have had

0:23:01.480 --> 0:23:07.240
<v Speaker 2>about evs is how I'm to be able to retrofit

0:23:07.280 --> 0:23:10.679
<v Speaker 2>them later on, you know, because battery technology developed so

0:23:10.800 --> 0:23:13.680
<v Speaker 2>quickly with a gas vehicle.

0:23:14.960 --> 0:23:16.000
<v Speaker 4>If I say I.

0:23:15.920 --> 0:23:18.359
<v Speaker 2>Have like a I don't know, a Boss three to

0:23:18.400 --> 0:23:21.600
<v Speaker 2>Oho two and I want to put in, you know,

0:23:24.200 --> 0:23:26.119
<v Speaker 2>like a four forty seven in there, I can just

0:23:26.200 --> 0:23:27.719
<v Speaker 2>pull out the engine and swap it.

0:23:27.920 --> 0:23:30.000
<v Speaker 4>But it's much more difficult with a battery.

0:23:30.280 --> 0:23:32.360
<v Speaker 2>What's your thought on how we're going to be able

0:23:32.359 --> 0:23:34.360
<v Speaker 2>to deal with these ten twenty years down the road.

0:23:35.880 --> 0:23:37.199
<v Speaker 13>So great question.

0:23:37.640 --> 0:23:40.760
<v Speaker 12>One of the best things about Mustang is how enthusiastic

0:23:40.840 --> 0:23:44.600
<v Speaker 12>our customers are about the brand, and we see that

0:23:44.680 --> 0:23:47.240
<v Speaker 12>with Maki as well. We see a lot of customers

0:23:47.440 --> 0:23:50.720
<v Speaker 12>that want to customize their vehicles and we're definitely here

0:23:50.800 --> 0:23:53.760
<v Speaker 12>for that, so we will have a full suite of

0:23:53.960 --> 0:23:57.520
<v Speaker 12>accessories that will be available when we launch. And the

0:23:57.560 --> 0:24:01.120
<v Speaker 12>other thing that's great about electric vehicles is we're able

0:24:01.160 --> 0:24:03.840
<v Speaker 12>to do things over through over the air updates and

0:24:04.040 --> 0:24:07.679
<v Speaker 12>different software pieces that we weren't able to do before,

0:24:07.800 --> 0:24:11.200
<v Speaker 12>So we can actually help you improve your vehicle over

0:24:11.240 --> 0:24:14.239
<v Speaker 12>the air, so hopefully makes that process even easier for

0:24:14.320 --> 0:24:15.000
<v Speaker 12>you in the future.

0:24:15.160 --> 0:24:17.240
<v Speaker 3>But that doesn't necessarily allow you to just kind of

0:24:17.240 --> 0:24:20.560
<v Speaker 3>switch out your battery when the battery technology.

0:24:20.880 --> 0:24:24.119
<v Speaker 2>Improves, right, it's hard to get to I imagine you'd

0:24:24.200 --> 0:24:27.359
<v Speaker 2>have to take out the interior and I mean if

0:24:27.400 --> 0:24:31.320
<v Speaker 2>the batteries in the floor to skateboard, right, So.

0:24:30.640 --> 0:24:33.199
<v Speaker 12>So battery swapping, you know that that'll be definitely a

0:24:33.240 --> 0:24:35.760
<v Speaker 12>conversation for another day. But there are things we can

0:24:35.800 --> 0:24:39.840
<v Speaker 12>do with different calibrations of the of the engine through

0:24:39.880 --> 0:24:43.000
<v Speaker 12>software that we can push through over the air updates

0:24:43.040 --> 0:24:47.040
<v Speaker 12>to enhance performance, things like our Blue Crewise one point

0:24:47.040 --> 0:24:49.359
<v Speaker 12>three that we're going to launch with the rally, you know,

0:24:49.480 --> 0:24:54.080
<v Speaker 12>has has been something that that improves from from version

0:24:54.119 --> 0:24:56.359
<v Speaker 12>to version, so a lot of this is actually going

0:24:56.440 --> 0:24:58.080
<v Speaker 12>to happen automatically for you.

0:24:58.320 --> 0:24:58.960
<v Speaker 13>In the future.

0:24:59.119 --> 0:25:02.480
<v Speaker 2>Blue Cruise is kind of like an automated driving or

0:25:02.520 --> 0:25:04.440
<v Speaker 2>something that gets closer to that, right.

0:25:05.000 --> 0:25:08.879
<v Speaker 12>Exactly, it's our hands free driving software that's that's in

0:25:08.960 --> 0:25:13.479
<v Speaker 12>all Mustang Makis and Blue Cruise one point three. One

0:25:13.520 --> 0:25:17.360
<v Speaker 12>of the greatest improvements is for narrow lanes and curves.

0:25:17.680 --> 0:25:21.080
<v Speaker 12>It's actually been in our internal tests, has stayed in

0:25:21.160 --> 0:25:24.400
<v Speaker 12>hands free mode five times longer than Blue Cruise one

0:25:24.400 --> 0:25:24.960
<v Speaker 12>point zero.

0:25:25.640 --> 0:25:27.760
<v Speaker 3>Look, Michael, I've got to ask you about this because

0:25:27.880 --> 0:25:31.600
<v Speaker 3>Ford and It's union discussions are so top of mind

0:25:31.640 --> 0:25:33.680
<v Speaker 3>for markets right now. I know you're a marketing guy,

0:25:34.440 --> 0:25:37.320
<v Speaker 3>but that you do really know about this vehicle. One

0:25:37.359 --> 0:25:39.120
<v Speaker 3>of the concerns, I guess from the union side has

0:25:39.160 --> 0:25:43.040
<v Speaker 3>been that the automation of these production of evs potentially,

0:25:43.359 --> 0:25:46.200
<v Speaker 3>you know, puts them out of out of work.

0:25:46.520 --> 0:25:47.960
<v Speaker 4>You need far fewer people to build an.

0:25:47.880 --> 0:25:52.479
<v Speaker 3>Electric exactly have you know, does the production of the

0:25:52.520 --> 0:25:54.920
<v Speaker 3>Machi and the Machi rally, you know, does that require

0:25:54.960 --> 0:25:56.240
<v Speaker 3>far fewer people.

0:25:58.160 --> 0:26:01.360
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, So that's definitely a qui uesh for another day

0:26:01.400 --> 0:26:07.600
<v Speaker 12>as well. We're excited about the rally and we're excited

0:26:07.640 --> 0:26:11.720
<v Speaker 12>for production to begin in January, all right, Uh not?

0:26:11.800 --> 0:26:15.800
<v Speaker 3>They I had to ask, but we do have to

0:26:15.840 --> 0:26:16.640
<v Speaker 3>ask those questions.

0:26:16.920 --> 0:26:18.920
<v Speaker 4>What about other versions?

0:26:18.960 --> 0:26:23.439
<v Speaker 2>Do you have any ideas about some other versions we

0:26:23.480 --> 0:26:26.119
<v Speaker 2>could see of the Mustang Maki. Is this going to

0:26:26.160 --> 0:26:29.400
<v Speaker 2>be something that where variants come out every couple of years.

0:26:30.080 --> 0:26:33.719
<v Speaker 12>So great question, and stay tuned for a few for

0:26:33.880 --> 0:26:37.720
<v Speaker 12>details on the entire twenty four model year Mack Mustang

0:26:37.760 --> 0:26:40.600
<v Speaker 12>Machi lineup. But I do want to share with you

0:26:41.160 --> 0:26:44.280
<v Speaker 12>one mentality that our team has adopted, and it's called

0:26:44.320 --> 0:26:50.080
<v Speaker 12>always on. So through with social media, with connected vehicle

0:26:50.200 --> 0:26:53.520
<v Speaker 12>data that's aggregated and anonymized, we're able to listen to

0:26:53.600 --> 0:26:56.800
<v Speaker 12>customers in a much more real time way than we

0:26:56.840 --> 0:27:00.560
<v Speaker 12>ever have in the past. This Machi rally is actually

0:27:00.800 --> 0:27:03.639
<v Speaker 12>went from an idea in an email to an actual

0:27:03.720 --> 0:27:07.000
<v Speaker 12>vehicle that you can drive in sixteen months, and that's

0:27:07.040 --> 0:27:08.960
<v Speaker 12>a process that could typically take three to.

0:27:08.960 --> 0:27:10.840
<v Speaker 13>Four years at an automaker.

0:27:11.240 --> 0:27:14.600
<v Speaker 12>So we're really excited about all the different variants that

0:27:14.640 --> 0:27:17.800
<v Speaker 12>can come from this in the future, and really hope

0:27:17.800 --> 0:27:20.840
<v Speaker 12>that you stay tuned for the full twenty four mili

0:27:20.920 --> 0:27:24.280
<v Speaker 12>year Mustang Machi lineup, which we'll be giving you more

0:27:24.320 --> 0:27:25.240
<v Speaker 12>details on soon.

0:27:25.480 --> 0:27:27.960
<v Speaker 2>Michael, thanks so much for joining us really appreciate Michael Sego,

0:27:28.000 --> 0:27:30.919
<v Speaker 2>their Macke sales manager at the Ford Motor Company.

0:27:31.320 --> 0:27:34.440
<v Speaker 9>You're listening to the tape. Catch our live program Bloomberg

0:27:34.480 --> 0:27:38.080
<v Speaker 9>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

0:27:38.119 --> 0:27:41.359
<v Speaker 9>tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

0:27:41.400 --> 0:27:44.199
<v Speaker 9>You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

0:27:44.240 --> 0:27:49.200
<v Speaker 9>flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:27:50.280 --> 0:27:52.760
<v Speaker 4>Let's talk about pern Recard right now.

0:27:52.840 --> 0:27:56.359
<v Speaker 2>We have Alexander Riccard with us here, the CEO of

0:27:56.600 --> 0:28:01.320
<v Speaker 2>the famed liquor maker with us. The brands are too

0:28:01.400 --> 0:28:04.440
<v Speaker 2>numerous to mention. I grew up with My mom has

0:28:04.440 --> 0:28:07.679
<v Speaker 2>always had the Glenn Livett around, has always had it

0:28:07.720 --> 0:28:12.040
<v Speaker 2>handy in a healthy way, and I appreciate a lot

0:28:12.119 --> 0:28:15.520
<v Speaker 2>of the I grew up with Absolute posters all over

0:28:15.560 --> 0:28:15.960
<v Speaker 2>my wall.

0:28:15.960 --> 0:28:16.600
<v Speaker 4>When I was a kid.

0:28:16.640 --> 0:28:20.040
<v Speaker 2>It was the thing to find Absolute ads and then

0:28:20.040 --> 0:28:22.399
<v Speaker 2>to collect all of them. And I'm older than you,

0:28:22.480 --> 0:28:25.080
<v Speaker 2>so you may not remember that, Simon, But Alexander, thanks

0:28:25.080 --> 0:28:29.280
<v Speaker 2>so much for joining us. What to you is the

0:28:29.320 --> 0:28:32.320
<v Speaker 2>most important or the biggest growth driver of your business?

0:28:32.320 --> 0:28:34.560
<v Speaker 2>Because you have so many brands, so many children to

0:28:34.600 --> 0:28:35.359
<v Speaker 2>look after.

0:28:36.520 --> 0:28:39.320
<v Speaker 3>Hopefully adults excuse me, sorry, go ahead first, yeah.

0:28:39.160 --> 0:28:43.520
<v Speaker 7>Roll adults, absolutely listen. That the beauty is if you

0:28:43.600 --> 0:28:46.320
<v Speaker 7>look at the way we grew over the last let's

0:28:46.320 --> 0:28:50.240
<v Speaker 7>say twelve months, eighty five or percent of our growth

0:28:50.720 --> 0:28:54.240
<v Speaker 7>came from six different categories. That's the beauty of the industry.

0:28:54.520 --> 0:28:58.800
<v Speaker 7>I mean, every single category has amazing brands amongst it

0:28:59.080 --> 0:29:02.680
<v Speaker 7>that are growing. You mentioned some of them. By the way, Absolutely,

0:29:02.680 --> 0:29:05.440
<v Speaker 7>We've had an amazing year with Absolute Vodka. Globally, the

0:29:05.440 --> 0:29:08.880
<v Speaker 7>brand grew ten percent. You mentioned Glenn Livitt, one of

0:29:08.880 --> 0:29:12.080
<v Speaker 7>the fastest growing single molts in the world, doing very well.

0:29:12.200 --> 0:29:14.320
<v Speaker 7>And by the way, in the West, I could name

0:29:14.400 --> 0:29:17.440
<v Speaker 7>Jamison as well, which is just flying off the shelves

0:29:17.720 --> 0:29:20.720
<v Speaker 7>and it's great to see. But even other brands like

0:29:20.800 --> 0:29:24.520
<v Speaker 7>Malibu and Kolua, or even our Kniak brand Mark I

0:29:24.520 --> 0:29:24.960
<v Speaker 7>did want.

0:29:24.880 --> 0:29:27.000
<v Speaker 4>To ask you about do you love the big Lebowski.

0:29:27.240 --> 0:29:30.320
<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, yeah, because the dude is drinking white Russians

0:29:30.320 --> 0:29:32.600
<v Speaker 2>the whole time, and that's the first thing I think

0:29:32.640 --> 0:29:33.880
<v Speaker 2>of when I look at Kalua.

0:29:34.720 --> 0:29:36.640
<v Speaker 7>And by the way, in the US, we have a

0:29:36.680 --> 0:29:42.440
<v Speaker 7>great Absolute Martini combo that worked very well last October

0:29:42.600 --> 0:29:46.080
<v Speaker 7>November December, ahead of the festive period. It's just amazing.

0:29:47.520 --> 0:29:50.840
<v Speaker 3>One of the big areas of demand for you and

0:29:50.920 --> 0:29:53.960
<v Speaker 3>the large share of your business about over forty percent

0:29:54.000 --> 0:29:57.400
<v Speaker 3>now is Asia. I know we talked you and I

0:29:57.440 --> 0:30:01.160
<v Speaker 3>talked about this last week, but I want to discuss

0:30:01.160 --> 0:30:06.640
<v Speaker 3>the changing appetites of particularly Chinese consumers. A. This is

0:30:06.840 --> 0:30:11.240
<v Speaker 3>a place where they're seeing some economic pain, but how

0:30:11.400 --> 0:30:13.880
<v Speaker 3>are their appetites for for alcohol changing at the moment?

0:30:14.320 --> 0:30:18.240
<v Speaker 7>You know it's it's it's when when the zero COVID

0:30:18.320 --> 0:30:23.160
<v Speaker 7>strategy was over and after going through a normalization phase,

0:30:23.920 --> 0:30:26.560
<v Speaker 7>we experienced in China exactly what the rest of the

0:30:26.560 --> 0:30:30.840
<v Speaker 7>world experienced post pandemic, which is what I call revenge conviviality.

0:30:30.960 --> 0:30:34.560
<v Speaker 7>Chinese consumers just started to go back out again in

0:30:34.640 --> 0:30:38.840
<v Speaker 7>the trade, going to see their relatives, their their friends,

0:30:39.160 --> 0:30:41.239
<v Speaker 7>a lot of weddings catching up and so on and

0:30:41.280 --> 0:30:43.880
<v Speaker 7>so forth. And as you said, there there is a

0:30:43.920 --> 0:30:48.040
<v Speaker 7>little bit of macroeconomic softness in China right now which

0:30:48.080 --> 0:30:51.400
<v Speaker 7>is impacting consumer confidence and therefore a little bit o

0:30:51.800 --> 0:30:54.880
<v Speaker 7>our sales. But the underlying fundamentals are there. I mean,

0:30:54.880 --> 0:30:56.400
<v Speaker 7>consumers want to go out.

0:30:56.480 --> 0:30:59.400
<v Speaker 3>Do they want sweeter stuff versus so.

0:30:59.480 --> 0:31:04.280
<v Speaker 7>In in China right now, they really love konyak, They

0:31:04.360 --> 0:31:09.280
<v Speaker 7>really love whiskey in particular, Single Mold and Absolute is

0:31:09.440 --> 0:31:13.480
<v Speaker 7>enjoying huge growth as the cocktail culture develops in China

0:31:13.520 --> 0:31:16.960
<v Speaker 7>as well. And there's a big structural shift which we

0:31:17.040 --> 0:31:21.760
<v Speaker 7>are seeing emerge in China, which are live venues, live

0:31:21.920 --> 0:31:26.480
<v Speaker 7>entertainment venues basically bores with local bands playing music and

0:31:26.560 --> 0:31:29.240
<v Speaker 7>Chinese consumers just going there and having a drink or two.

0:31:29.880 --> 0:31:32.800
<v Speaker 2>What you flagged to decline in sales in the current

0:31:32.840 --> 0:31:36.800
<v Speaker 2>quarter is that globally and what do you think is

0:31:36.840 --> 0:31:41.320
<v Speaker 2>behind that? Are people switching back from spirits to beer

0:31:41.360 --> 0:31:43.480
<v Speaker 2>and wine or what's driving it?

0:31:44.080 --> 0:31:47.560
<v Speaker 7>No, what's driving is basically a softness right now in

0:31:47.560 --> 0:31:50.880
<v Speaker 7>the quarter in China. And by the way, we're lapping

0:31:51.480 --> 0:31:54.480
<v Speaker 7>arec quarter the previous year. Over the last two quarters

0:31:54.520 --> 0:31:56.680
<v Speaker 7>in China we grew thirty two percent, So that's what

0:31:56.760 --> 0:32:00.360
<v Speaker 7>we're lapping in a soft environment. Number two, we are

0:32:00.440 --> 0:32:04.440
<v Speaker 7>lapping as well normalization in the US, which is by

0:32:04.520 --> 0:32:09.120
<v Speaker 7>far our largest market. So we expect a soft negative

0:32:09.120 --> 0:32:12.000
<v Speaker 7>in fact quord. So those tough comps, yeah, yeah, tough comps,

0:32:12.120 --> 0:32:13.320
<v Speaker 7>but also normalization.

0:32:14.120 --> 0:32:15.080
<v Speaker 4>What about weed.

0:32:15.400 --> 0:32:18.880
<v Speaker 2>Is that not a big competitor because I think a

0:32:18.880 --> 0:32:23.640
<v Speaker 2>lot of people in this country are drinking less alcohol

0:32:23.920 --> 0:32:27.400
<v Speaker 2>and you know, eating more gummies for example.

0:32:28.160 --> 0:32:30.800
<v Speaker 7>No, you know, I had the question back in in fact,

0:32:30.840 --> 0:32:34.280
<v Speaker 7>in twenty eighteen as cannabis was being legalized in a

0:32:34.360 --> 0:32:38.280
<v Speaker 7>number of states. Ever since, we've really monitored the situation

0:32:38.440 --> 0:32:43.560
<v Speaker 7>quite closely. And by the way, ever since, the spirit market,

0:32:43.560 --> 0:32:48.040
<v Speaker 7>the category in which we operate, premium spirits, have accelerated.

0:32:48.280 --> 0:32:50.160
<v Speaker 7>As a matter of fact, you know, the underlying trend

0:32:50.200 --> 0:32:52.920
<v Speaker 7>in the US for spirits is usually four to five

0:32:52.960 --> 0:32:54.960
<v Speaker 7>percent growth, and over the last three years in the

0:32:55.080 --> 0:32:56.959
<v Speaker 7>US they've grown eight percent.

0:32:57.720 --> 0:33:02.080
<v Speaker 3>Our colleagues really quickly. Here our colleague flagged the decline

0:33:02.080 --> 0:33:06.080
<v Speaker 3>and consumer appetite for alcohol because of GLP one drugs,

0:33:06.120 --> 0:33:08.680
<v Speaker 3>those new weight loss ibetes drugs. Is this on your

0:33:08.720 --> 0:33:09.360
<v Speaker 3>radar at all?

0:33:09.960 --> 0:33:12.440
<v Speaker 7>No, everything is on my radar, just like you know.

0:33:13.400 --> 0:33:15.680
<v Speaker 7>You know, six years ago we spoke about cannabis, and

0:33:15.720 --> 0:33:18.239
<v Speaker 7>ever since we've been looking at it closely, monitoring, just

0:33:18.280 --> 0:33:21.520
<v Speaker 7>making sure and this is new, so it's it's it's

0:33:21.720 --> 0:33:27.720
<v Speaker 7>still early to conclude anything tangible about it, but obviously

0:33:27.760 --> 0:33:29.600
<v Speaker 7>we'll be looking at it closely.

0:33:29.680 --> 0:33:31.960
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, sure, Alexander, thanks so much for coming in. Really

0:33:32.000 --> 0:33:33.360
<v Speaker 4>appreciate your time here.

0:33:33.400 --> 0:33:37.240
<v Speaker 2>Alexander Ricard there, the CEO of Perno Recard, the maker

0:33:37.360 --> 0:33:40.400
<v Speaker 2>of Monkey forty seven, Schwartzwald dry Gin.

0:33:40.600 --> 0:33:42.160
<v Speaker 4>This is Bloomberg.

0:33:42.760 --> 0:33:45.840
<v Speaker 9>You're listening to the tape cans our live program, Bloomberg

0:33:45.960 --> 0:33:49.560
<v Speaker 9>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

0:33:49.600 --> 0:33:52.840
<v Speaker 9>tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app.

0:33:52.880 --> 0:33:55.680
<v Speaker 9>You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

0:33:55.720 --> 0:34:00.120
<v Speaker 9>flagship New York station, Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:34:01.560 --> 0:34:05.200
<v Speaker 3>I want to bring in our next guest, Jawad Mian.

0:34:05.760 --> 0:34:10.160
<v Speaker 3>He is the founder at Stray Reflections, a global macro

0:34:10.280 --> 0:34:16.200
<v Speaker 3>research firm with an unconventional view towards markets and trading. Joan,

0:34:16.400 --> 0:34:17.759
<v Speaker 3>I want to ask you because we're looking at a

0:34:17.760 --> 0:34:21.240
<v Speaker 3>pretty negative picture for some of these major tech names.

0:34:22.080 --> 0:34:25.840
<v Speaker 3>In Nvidia, Apple shares both down you know, roughly in

0:34:25.880 --> 0:34:29.160
<v Speaker 3>the three percent range, and then Asadac really leading our

0:34:29.239 --> 0:34:34.120
<v Speaker 3>losses today. We've heard some question marks about whether the

0:34:34.160 --> 0:34:38.080
<v Speaker 3>AI hype will live up to the kind of standards

0:34:38.080 --> 0:34:42.279
<v Speaker 3>that analysts have thought. Is this the end for this

0:34:42.760 --> 0:34:45.600
<v Speaker 3>tech enthusiasm part of the rally.

0:34:47.840 --> 0:34:50.560
<v Speaker 5>I don't think so, you know, feeling lost, confuser and

0:34:50.680 --> 0:34:54.760
<v Speaker 5>certain as much a hallmark of investing as a scarty

0:34:54.840 --> 0:34:57.200
<v Speaker 5>conviction and the sense of calm. So this kind of

0:34:57.320 --> 0:34:59.960
<v Speaker 5>period is quite normal. So what is confusing me actually

0:35:00.160 --> 0:35:02.920
<v Speaker 5>is not the NATSAKS thirty seven percent rally, not that

0:35:02.960 --> 0:35:06.400
<v Speaker 5>inflict has really receded with so little ectomic pain, and

0:35:06.400 --> 0:35:08.839
<v Speaker 5>not even that the tenure bond yields are breaking out.

0:35:09.440 --> 0:35:11.960
<v Speaker 5>A confusing aspect for me is why institutionally industries are

0:35:12.000 --> 0:35:15.080
<v Speaker 5>sitting still sitting out this bull market, which is why

0:35:15.120 --> 0:35:18.000
<v Speaker 5>I believe any correction even here will be quite shallow.

0:35:19.680 --> 0:35:21.880
<v Speaker 14>Juwat. If I'm looking at the tenure right now, the

0:35:21.920 --> 0:35:24.400
<v Speaker 14>yield at four point two seven percent, is there a

0:35:24.440 --> 0:35:26.319
<v Speaker 14>point that the yields can break out? To you that

0:35:26.320 --> 0:35:29.480
<v Speaker 14>we would see things actually materially start to break when

0:35:29.520 --> 0:35:32.960
<v Speaker 14>it comes to some of these tech heavy stocks and indexes.

0:35:34.960 --> 0:35:37.200
<v Speaker 5>I think if the on yield is rising for the

0:35:37.360 --> 0:35:40.440
<v Speaker 5>right reasons, which is based on greater klomic continence a

0:35:40.520 --> 0:35:43.600
<v Speaker 5>higher real neutral rate, I think equities will do just

0:35:43.640 --> 0:35:46.920
<v Speaker 5>fine in that scenario. If yields were rising like they

0:35:46.920 --> 0:35:50.200
<v Speaker 5>did last year, where we were still dealing with inflation uncertainty.

0:35:50.920 --> 0:35:53.560
<v Speaker 5>We weren't sure where the Fed rate high cycle would end.

0:35:53.840 --> 0:35:56.239
<v Speaker 5>Confusion by the terminal rate. That was what was really

0:35:56.280 --> 0:36:02.200
<v Speaker 5>hurting stocks. Yeah, it's quite And you know, if we

0:36:02.560 --> 0:36:06.480
<v Speaker 5>look at past you know cycles where above the rising

0:36:06.520 --> 0:36:10.520
<v Speaker 5>since nineteen seventies, she noticed is that those periods are

0:36:10.520 --> 0:36:13.239
<v Speaker 5>overwhelmingly positive for stocks. So in nine out of those

0:36:13.239 --> 0:36:17.040
<v Speaker 5>eleven cycles, equis did okay the positive return of around

0:36:17.120 --> 0:36:20.759
<v Speaker 5>thirteen percent over a twelve month horizon. What happens is

0:36:20.800 --> 0:36:24.440
<v Speaker 5>tend to contract, but equities do okay because earnings grow

0:36:24.520 --> 0:36:28.080
<v Speaker 5>fast enough to offset those lower valuations. So even as

0:36:28.120 --> 0:36:31.239
<v Speaker 5>bondials increase from four to four point three and let's

0:36:31.239 --> 0:36:33.920
<v Speaker 5>say higher, if we are going to be seeing forward

0:36:33.920 --> 0:36:37.080
<v Speaker 5>earnings climbing as we are current with S five hundred

0:36:37.080 --> 0:36:39.480
<v Speaker 5>and brought up epsesment next year at two hundred and

0:36:39.480 --> 0:36:43.080
<v Speaker 5>forty years, that's still is prop for equities.

0:36:44.520 --> 0:36:46.919
<v Speaker 3>And sorry to our our radio viewers there, I should

0:36:46.960 --> 0:36:49.200
<v Speaker 3>have told you that the disembodied voice that you might

0:36:49.200 --> 0:36:51.920
<v Speaker 3>have just heard before Jawad's was actually that of our

0:36:52.360 --> 0:36:56.000
<v Speaker 3>Stash reporter Bailey Lipschaltz, who joins us for the next

0:36:56.200 --> 0:36:58.360
<v Speaker 3>couple of minutes, fifteen to twenty minutes.

0:36:58.120 --> 0:37:00.400
<v Speaker 4>Here, you know, Jimad.

0:37:00.640 --> 0:37:03.040
<v Speaker 3>One of the big concerns has been the health of

0:37:03.680 --> 0:37:08.319
<v Speaker 3>the consumer going forward, responsible for about two thirds of

0:37:08.520 --> 0:37:14.000
<v Speaker 3>overall economic GDP. What are you reading in the tea

0:37:14.080 --> 0:37:16.360
<v Speaker 3>leaves here from some of the earning statements we've had

0:37:16.400 --> 0:37:18.520
<v Speaker 3>over the last couple of weeks. From the data that

0:37:18.520 --> 0:37:19.000
<v Speaker 3>you're seeing.

0:37:21.239 --> 0:37:23.920
<v Speaker 5>So, I think the big question that concern this year

0:37:23.960 --> 0:37:26.719
<v Speaker 5>coming into it was that where everyone was expecting a

0:37:26.760 --> 0:37:30.680
<v Speaker 5>recession and it hasn't happened yet the liber market remains

0:37:30.760 --> 0:37:33.520
<v Speaker 5>quite healthy. I think what we're trying to understand now

0:37:33.600 --> 0:37:35.359
<v Speaker 5>is the fact that intership and stivity in the US

0:37:35.360 --> 0:37:38.680
<v Speaker 5>economy is historically low, and what that means is basically

0:37:39.960 --> 0:37:43.600
<v Speaker 5>in consumers and households, we deleverged both the GFC and

0:37:43.640 --> 0:37:46.440
<v Speaker 5>then POSTPIG given the booster incomes and the further plunge

0:37:46.440 --> 0:37:52.480
<v Speaker 5>in interest costs you're looking at how so, oh.

0:37:52.360 --> 0:37:55.480
<v Speaker 3>It looks like we might have lost Jawad there. We'll

0:37:55.480 --> 0:37:58.480
<v Speaker 3>be back to him soon as soon as we get

0:37:58.520 --> 0:38:00.920
<v Speaker 3>him back on the line. Looking a mixed picture in

0:38:00.960 --> 0:38:04.000
<v Speaker 3>stocks right now, dal Jones up about two tents of

0:38:04.000 --> 0:38:07.640
<v Speaker 3>one percent, but we're seeing some weakness in SMP down

0:38:07.680 --> 0:38:11.359
<v Speaker 3>about three tenths of one percent and the NASDAC down

0:38:12.360 --> 0:38:14.480
<v Speaker 3>about one percent. Oh, I look, I believe we have

0:38:14.600 --> 0:38:18.440
<v Speaker 3>Juwad back with us. You were talking about the consumer,

0:38:18.480 --> 0:38:22.120
<v Speaker 3>the pain that the consumer has been feeling, but not

0:38:22.160 --> 0:38:24.960
<v Speaker 3>necessarily bad for stocks. I believe we lost you there.

0:38:25.000 --> 0:38:26.560
<v Speaker 3>So just recap a little bit the last bit that

0:38:26.600 --> 0:38:27.239
<v Speaker 3>you were saying there.

0:38:28.520 --> 0:38:30.560
<v Speaker 5>What I was saying was that you were realizing is

0:38:30.560 --> 0:38:34.080
<v Speaker 5>that the intershiate tensitivity of the US economy or households

0:38:34.120 --> 0:38:39.719
<v Speaker 5>and corporate low why consumers have so if you have

0:38:39.840 --> 0:38:42.920
<v Speaker 5>nominal growth blocking in at around six seven percent, as

0:38:42.920 --> 0:38:45.120
<v Speaker 5>has been the case so far this year, even if

0:38:45.160 --> 0:38:48.160
<v Speaker 5>FET thundred five percent is not troublesome, it's only when

0:38:48.200 --> 0:38:51.160
<v Speaker 5>you really have a sharper slowdown in nominal growth and

0:38:51.280 --> 0:38:53.720
<v Speaker 5>higher interestrate levels that you start to see the consumer

0:38:53.719 --> 0:38:56.319
<v Speaker 5>really pulling back. And that has the case so far.

0:38:56.480 --> 0:38:57.719
<v Speaker 5>I don't expect it to be the case of the

0:38:57.719 --> 0:39:00.880
<v Speaker 5>next section nine months either, And drawn looking.

0:39:00.640 --> 0:39:03.560
<v Speaker 14>At the tape, obviously we're starting September off in the red,

0:39:03.680 --> 0:39:07.920
<v Speaker 14>seasonally the worst month for major US averages. What can

0:39:08.560 --> 0:39:12.319
<v Speaker 14>spur investors to put capital back into the market. We

0:39:12.400 --> 0:39:15.520
<v Speaker 14>have CPI data coming up coming out about a week.

0:39:15.719 --> 0:39:18.560
<v Speaker 14>We have a FED blackout period. Obviously there's a lot

0:39:18.600 --> 0:39:21.680
<v Speaker 14>of macroeconomic concerns as it relates to Apple. What draws

0:39:21.800 --> 0:39:23.200
<v Speaker 14>investors back into this market?

0:39:25.600 --> 0:39:28.719
<v Speaker 5>I think it's just a matter of understanding slows and

0:39:28.920 --> 0:39:33.080
<v Speaker 5>participation levels. Right, So, even though recession concerns are fading,

0:39:33.080 --> 0:39:36.560
<v Speaker 5>which you realize looking at different survey like the Bank

0:39:36.600 --> 0:39:38.919
<v Speaker 5>of America, it was un managers of issues like global

0:39:38.960 --> 0:39:42.000
<v Speaker 5>equity allocation is still at eleven percent underweight, which is

0:39:42.000 --> 0:39:44.360
<v Speaker 5>one of a half stand deviation below the DOCTO average.

0:39:44.440 --> 0:39:46.800
<v Speaker 5>You know, the overweighting bonds is the two standard deviation.

0:39:47.400 --> 0:39:50.200
<v Speaker 5>And so what you're seeing is currently this understanding that

0:39:50.239 --> 0:39:54.520
<v Speaker 5>maybe why and stocks when bonds are yielding five percent

0:39:54.520 --> 0:39:57.520
<v Speaker 5>of the short term But our view is actually bonds

0:39:57.600 --> 0:40:00.759
<v Speaker 5>are expensive here and stocks could be relative cheap or

0:40:00.760 --> 0:40:03.000
<v Speaker 5>a reliative basis. So I think it's going to be

0:40:03.080 --> 0:40:07.439
<v Speaker 5>simply an understanding that with yields moving higher. It's usually

0:40:07.600 --> 0:40:11.320
<v Speaker 5>investors came into the year quite underweight equities. They expected

0:40:11.400 --> 0:40:14.600
<v Speaker 5>their private market book exposure will sort of help them

0:40:14.600 --> 0:40:18.479
<v Speaker 5>with that. The private markets have underperformed bundials have risen

0:40:18.680 --> 0:40:20.960
<v Speaker 5>and they're realizing that equities underweight is even bigger than

0:40:20.960 --> 0:40:23.799
<v Speaker 5>their thought. So in conversations when I pick up and

0:40:23.800 --> 0:40:26.000
<v Speaker 5>compositioning data, is that we're going to see more and

0:40:26.000 --> 0:40:30.040
<v Speaker 5>more participation flows moving into equities, which will keep any

0:40:30.160 --> 0:40:35.000
<v Speaker 5>pullback quite shallow. Before we move from here, George.

0:40:34.719 --> 0:40:37.840
<v Speaker 3>As quickly, we only have about thirty seconds here, but

0:40:37.960 --> 0:40:40.120
<v Speaker 3>I know that you are a portfolio manager in the

0:40:40.120 --> 0:40:45.480
<v Speaker 3>Middle East. Recently in their past dramatic rise in the

0:40:45.560 --> 0:40:48.200
<v Speaker 3>importance of that region has for the rest of the world.

0:40:48.440 --> 0:40:51.120
<v Speaker 3>Is that something that can continue even if oil doesn't

0:40:51.120 --> 0:40:52.319
<v Speaker 3>remain ninety dollars of arrow.

0:40:54.560 --> 0:40:56.520
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean, I think there's plenty of equity buffers

0:40:56.560 --> 0:40:59.200
<v Speaker 5>to be influential, and I think most importantly what matters

0:40:59.239 --> 0:41:02.440
<v Speaker 5>from there is just the AILL production policy. Right, So

0:41:02.560 --> 0:41:05.359
<v Speaker 5>that's the real way that you'll see a pass through

0:41:06.040 --> 0:41:08.399
<v Speaker 5>from a global market perspective. You know, what is open

0:41:08.480 --> 0:41:10.200
<v Speaker 5>going to do with AILL cuts And they've already said

0:41:10.200 --> 0:41:11.960
<v Speaker 5>that they can extend their cuts for now, so which

0:41:12.040 --> 0:41:13.719
<v Speaker 5>keeps aid prices higher than your tone.

0:41:14.239 --> 0:41:15.400
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and very interesting.

0:41:15.960 --> 0:41:20.120
<v Speaker 3>That's Jawad Mihan, He's the founder of Stray reflections the

0:41:20.239 --> 0:41:24.360
<v Speaker 3>global asset management firm. Thank you for joining us here

0:41:24.440 --> 0:41:27.800
<v Speaker 3>on Bloomberg with me and Bailey Lipschaltz. This is Bloomberg.

0:41:28.160 --> 0:41:31.279
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can

0:41:31.280 --> 0:41:35.080
<v Speaker 2>subscribe and listen to interviews in Apple Podcasts or whatever

0:41:35.160 --> 0:41:38.880
<v Speaker 2>podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter

0:41:39.080 --> 0:41:41.000
<v Speaker 2>at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three.

0:41:41.480 --> 0:41:42.320
<v Speaker 8>And I'm Faull Sweeney.

0:41:42.360 --> 0:41:45.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you

0:41:45.000 --> 0:41:48.399
<v Speaker 1>can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio